Fantasy Baseball Today - FBT Express - 6 Toughest Pitchers to Rank in 2026! (10/10 Fantasy Baseball podcast)
Episode Date: October 10, 2025Zack Wheeler had thoracic outlet decompression surgery and we have no idea what happens next. Framber Valdez had a rough second half and is entering free agency. Trevor Rogers was maybe the biggest le...ague-winning pitcher this past season. Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CPTowers @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Who are some of the toughest pitchers to rank for 2026? Let's discuss on Fantasy Baseball Today Express.
Welcome in to FBT Express on Friday, October 10th. I am Frank Sample joined by Chris Towers.
Let's take a look at some of the toughest pitchers to rank for 2026. It's very early on in the process here.
But these are some names that have caught our eyes so far. And first up is Zach Wheeler,
who is a Hall of Fame caliber pitcher. But he just,
had recently thoracic outlet decompression
decompression surgery back in September. Chris, right now,
everything is up in the air with Zach Wheeler.
Yeah, I mean, he had a really scary injury at the end of this season.
He was dealing with a blood clot in his shoulder.
They did a
the thoracic outlet surgery on a vein, I believe,
which is different than most, which are usually nerve-based injuries.
And we just don't really know what to explain.
expect from this. If he hits his best case scenario in terms of the timetable, it's not out of the
question Zach Wheeler could be pitching by the start of spring training. I don't know if you should
bet on the best case scenario for a procedure like this, especially when you're talking about a 35-year-old.
So there's a part of me that wants to just say, forget it. We don't, don't bother with Zach Wheeler.
It's going to be more of a headache than it's worth. But if you bet right, and he's, I don't know,
the 40th pitcher taken in your draft and he's 90% as good as he's been for the past five years.
It's going to be one of the best pitchers anyone, one of the best picks anyone makes in fantasy this year.
So it's truly one where, you know, we start our rankings process now.
I've got some way too early rankings already on the site.
I think Scott's going through that process now. Frank, you're just starting it.
But this is one that will have a much better sense of in about six months.
Ask me in five months, five months.
Ask me you have a five months from now where I'm going to rank Zach Willer.
And I might have a better answer then.
Let's take a look at Framber Valdez, who had himself a really rough second half.
He's also a free agent.
So will he be back in Houston where he's so comfortable?
It's the only place he's pitched in his career.
Or will he have a new home?
I think those are legitimate questions here for Framber Valdez.
And in his instance, you know,
Framber Valdez is someone who has talked a lot about having to control his emotions on the field.
and he's worked with sports psychologists
over the past couple years.
He's been very open about just how
a lot of the times as a pitcher he struggled to overcome
when things go wrong for him.
And, you know, that comfort level
might just lead him right back to Houston,
although they have been very comfortable
letting their star players walk in recent years.
So I don't know if that will continue,
but it's his worst season since 2019
in terms of ERA.
He turns 32 in just overall.
over two months.
We saw the strikeout rate and walk rate move in the wrong direction for the second
season in a row, and he especially strolling in that second half.
I don't know.
I've liked Framervald does a lot over the past couple of seasons as a really stable
floor razor for a pitching staff, someone you can count on to give you 190 innings
of good enough ratios and strikeouts.
If he doesn't, if he's not a safe bet this year, I'm not really sure he's a bet I want
make. I have him ranked outside of my top 24 SPs for 2026 right now. Chris, Blake Snell is someone
that you've had an interesting relationship with in fantasy over the past couple of years. We know
that he's Uber talented. He's won two Tsay Young Awards, but he has struggled to stay on the field
and that could be the case again next year. Yeah, I mean, he only threw, what, 55 innings this
season? So you would think his price is going to go down, except he threw 76, few. He threw 76,
were innings in 2024 than he did in 2023 with a higher ERA and his price went up about 18
picks on average. So I look at the Blake Snell marketplace. You know, the last five seasons,
the 80 piece, 53, 71, 116, 118, 46. He's been all over the place as a pitcher, so I get it,
but it also feels like we know who Blake Snell is. And for me, it's less where do I rank Blake
Snell and more where do I rank Snell,
Blake Snell relative to everyone else because everyone else was way too high on him
coming into 2025.
Maybe there's an overreaction.
Maybe his price drops a ton and then I'll be in on him as like the 20th or 23rd
starting pitcher in my rankings.
I can see a case for him being higher.
I can see a case for just wanting to not take the ride at all.
And I think that's the biggest thing with Blake Snell.
If you're going to draft him at all,
no matter what the price is, you have to understand it's not going to be fun the whole time.
There are going to be times when he's miserable to watch and blows up your ratios for a few weeks.
And you just got to know that about yourself whether you can stomach it with Blake Snow.
All right, let's take a quick break.
We'll be back with more right after this.
Welcome back in the FBT Express taking a look at some pitchers who will be pretty tough to rank for 2026.
Next up we have Mets prospect Nolan McLean, who,
was amazing down the stretch.
The question here is just how much will it rise?
Because he looks so good,
but there's also a lack of a track record here at the Major League level.
Yeah, the comp I've made a few times is to Logan Webb in the way that Nolan McLean
pitches.
He's a sinker baller, has multiple swing and miss pitches, including four-seamer that he
uses mostly in strikeout situations, and it was really good for him.
And it's also, you know, groundball pitcher.
There's a lot of inherent volatility in ground ball pitchers.
His command is not great.
So, you know, when you look at Logan Webb, he's someone who has really cemented himself as a solid SP2.
And I think Nolan McLean has that upside.
Coming off an eight-start stretch to start his career, we had 206 ERA, given all the hype that's going to build around him.
I could see him getting pushed up the way someone likes.
Spencer Schwellenbach was in 2025 drafts where he ended up being like a top 15 SP in some
drafts that'll be hard to stomach for me mclean was someone I ranked it was closer to like
36 closer to 40 even looking at that now it feels pretty low although you'll see this frank
when you go through it's a lot of good pitchers yeah in 2026 so I don't know how much higher I
can push him up. And that makes it sound like I'm just not going to be on a Nolan McLean in
26. Another good pitcher is Trevor Rogers. He was a true league winner. Perhaps the biggest
league winner as a free agent ad in June or July, whenever it was, finished with a sub two
ERA. The questions, and there are many, he struggled mightily before this kind of resurgence
here with the Orioles. Now he did have a velocity uptick and he changed some things and he looked
very effective down the stretch.
The question is, you know, how much do we trust it?
And how high does he go in drafts next season?
Yeah, part of what I'm struggling with with Trevor Rogers is the things that he improved
the most on were like the quality of contact he allowed and throwing strikes.
And those are things that tend to be a lot more volatile from year to gear.
You know, strikeout rate tends to be a lot more predictable.
And his was good, but not quite as good as it was back when 20, he looked like a, you know, big
up and comer in 2021.
But the thing that's really tripping me up about Trevor Rogers is even the Orioles had no idea he was going to be this good.
And I say that with a lot of confidence because they called him up for a spot start in late May.
He tossed six and two-thirds shutoutnings against the Red Sox, tough matchup.
And they sent him back to AAA and didn't call him up again for three more weeks as their season continued to slip away.
They finally call him up because they're desperate and he's the best pitcher in baseball from that point on.
I look, it's not like the Orioles are always right about everything.
I think when it comes to pitching, especially they've gotten a lot wrong over the past few years.
But I don't know, he was terrible at AAA last year.
He was terrible at AAA before he got called up.
And then he goes on this, what, 18, 20 start run where he's arguably the best pitcher in baseball.
I buy him being better than he was pre-2020.
I don't think I buy him as like a top
Is he a top 50 pitcher?
I think I can get him to top 50.
Top 40?
That's a little riskier for me.
Yeah.
Last name on this list is Kate Horton of the Cubs
who had a monster second half.
He has the prospect pedigree as well.
Also comes with an extensive injury history.
And now is a good time to mention that he missed the end of the season
and has missed the playoffs to this point with a
fractured rib, which is kind of fluky.
It's not an arm-related injury.
But yeah, for all the reasons I mentioned,
I could see Kate Horton being a polarizing pitcher for next season.
Yeah, we talked a little bit on the full episode of FBT on Wednesday night
about Spencer Schwellenbach and the big innings jump that he had from 2023 when he threw
like 65 innings, 2024 when he threw 168.
Well, Kate Horton threw 34 innings in 2024.
He threw 88 the previous year.
So not a big sample size either season.
He ended up with 147 innings this season.
That's 113 inning jump without anything in the postseason.
So if nothing else, I just think there's a lot of risk of injury for Creed Horton that you have to bake in.
But then I think there's a ton of performance risk.
He had a 267 ERA for the season.
393XERA, 427X FIP.
he had outrageously good results on balls and play,
258 Babbap, 7.3 home run to fly ball rate,
not a great strikeout pitcher,
although I think he has the stuff to grow into one.
The thing I would say is to be drafted as a top 50 starting pitcher,
even, I think Kate Horton just has to get better.
But based on what he showed this year,
I don't have a lot of faith that he's going to be a top 50 pitcher.
without taking into account the injury risk that we talked about.
So I can't see Cade Horton being someone that's anything more than like a late,
late rotation,
an end of rotation arm for me in fantasy.
Yeah,
I think there's a little bit more upside there with the secondary pitches for Kate Horton.
You know,
he had fantastic whiff rates on his breaking stuff,
but he just continuously threw his fastball so much over 50% of the time.
To his credit,
he didn't have to throw much or much different or change much because it was working for him
in the second half, but I wonder if he tweaks that pitch makes, perhaps,
we could see a little bit more swing and miss here in Kate Horton's game.
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