Fantasy Baseball Today - FBT Express - Busts 1.0! Mark Vientos, Willy Adames & Other Player to Avoid! (2/1 Fantasy Baseball podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 Yesterday we gave you sleepers. This time we have busts. Up next on Fantasy Baseball Today Express. Welcome into FBT Express and welcome to February. I am Frank Sample joined by Scott White. Let's get into our busts 1.0 and up first for you, Scott, Jacob de Grom, who is being drafted inside the top 15 starting pitchers. Ridiculous.

Starting point is 00:00:25 It's the most ridiculous of all the picks being made. and it needs to stop. That's like round five for Jacob de Grom. I might take him in round 10. That's how far apart we are here. And I think it's just ridiculous. Okay, let's assume Jacob de Grom is totally fine, 37-year-old coming back from Tommy John surgery.

Starting point is 00:00:47 He made a handful of starts last season, looked okay. So let's just assume that. He'll be good when he starts. He's not going to start much. He hasn't thrown even 100 innings in a season since 2019. And though in the past, I've made the argument for the often injured pitcher to finally stay healthy. I can't make it for de Gras because his, you know what else happened after 2019?

Starting point is 00:01:11 His average velocity went up by like two miles per hour. He started throwing harder. He didn't need to, but he started throwing harder. And I think time has shown that his body just can't hold up to that velocity because it's been nothing but elbow and shoulder problems since then. This isn't Chris Sale falling off his bike and breaking his wrist. It's consistent elbow and shoulder problems once DeGrom reaches a certain innings threshold. And I have no reason to think it won't continue.

Starting point is 00:01:38 You mentioned the name there, Scott. Chris Sale is a pick for me, a bus pick this upcoming season. I think last year was the time to draft him when his ADP was outside the top 130. Obviously, if you did draft him, you profited in a major way. He won the Cy Young Award. He was amazing. Now this year, you have to pay up. The ADP is 33.8.

Starting point is 00:01:57 Chris Hale is the seventh starting pitcher off the board, and he actually ended the season hurt with a back injury. If you look at his fastball velocity, he averaged almost 95 on the season. In three of his last four starts, Chris Hale averaged below 94 on that fastball, including 92.7 in his final start of the season. I'm going to take their word that it was a back injury.

Starting point is 00:02:20 I just hope it wasn't anything more than that. Chris Sale has a long extensive injury history, things that have happened to his arms over the years. So, yeah, the having to use the top 40, top 50 pick on Chris Sale, just not going to be for me this year. Scott, back over to you, Mark Vientos, who for some is a popular breakout pick for you, a bust. Yeah, well, I mean, the breakout seemed like it happened last year,

Starting point is 00:02:47 and I'm afraid it's not sustainable, because what earned him a place in the Mets lineup was a reduction in strikeout, rate got it to 22% through June 30th. And that had always been what had held Viantos back. Too many strikeouts. Well, from July 1st on, 33% was the strikeout rate. So he pretty much lost all those gains. He still managed to hit 256 during that time, which is obviously not bad for the power

Starting point is 00:03:15 he delivers. But that was backed by a 333 BAP, which is going to be difficult to sustain. The sort of players who can overcome a 33% strikeout rate, are big sluggers. So Viantos has a chance, but I feel like his cost doesn't account for the bottom out risk that exists here. His batting average could potentially crater with the strikeout rate that high. All right. Let's take a quick break and we'll be back right after this. Welcome back in, continuing on with our busts 1.0. I am going to talk about Willie Adonis. The ADP this off season is 64.6, the 10th shortstop off the board, coming off a career year last

Starting point is 00:03:55 year, 251, 32 home runs, 112 RBI, 21 steals, an awesome season, no doubt. Top 20 overall player in Roto. He was the 14th best hitter in Head to Head Points Leagues was Willie Adamas. But got fortunate with some things. I mean, the home runs with fronters on base 13 three-run homers for Willie Adomas. That tied Ken Griffey Jr. for the most in a single season. and the park shift going from American Family Field over to the Giants on top of that.

Starting point is 00:04:27 The lineup shift, it's a worst lineup. And the Giants don't run as much as the Brewers did last season as well. So I just think all around, the numbers are expected to take a little bit of a step back. Maybe it's a 230, 240 hitter, 25-ish home runs, 10 steals. That's an okay player.

Starting point is 00:04:44 Probably not someone you should be drafting inside the top 75 picks. I will be staying away from Willie Adamas. Scott, back over to you. his former teammate, Bryce Terang, is somebody that you're fading. Yeah, this one's pretty simple. Bryce Terang hit 292 over the first three months. He hit 214 over the final three months.

Starting point is 00:05:05 The underlying data supports more the 214 hitting version. And by the way, Bryce Terang, his rookie season, 2023, hit 218. So the track record supports it more too. I think he could turn out to be pretty useful. list this year if he picks up where he left off last year in the second half and you know, the Brewers have a lot of infield alternatives. I'm going to talk about a closer Robert Swares and I realize kind of a cop-out pick because

Starting point is 00:05:36 really any closer can bust. There's so much volatility year over year. But Robert Suarez coming off an awesome season, 36 saves, the fourth most in baseball. Don't love the fact that he doesn't miss a ton of bats, 23% strikeout rate, 8.2K per 9. extremely fastball reliant through that four seam, 71% of the time for Robert Suarez, and maybe became a little bit too predictable. He took a step back in the second half, ERA was over four, a 124 whip, strikeouts went down, the walks went up for Robert Suarez, and the Padres have entertained trading him this offseason.

Starting point is 00:06:12 Doesn't mean that it's going to happen, but maybe they're looking to sell high. The Padres also have other very talented relievers in Jason Adam and Jeremiah Estrada. So I worry about the second half. I worry about if he's traded, is he still the closer on whatever team he gets traded to? So a little bit too much risk taking Robert Swar as a top 12 closer for me. I will be going in another direction. Scott, back to you, and I will let you decide your last one. Want to talk about Kerry Carpenter or Ryan Pepio?

Starting point is 00:06:41 Let's talk about Pepio. For Carpenter, by the way, it's just that he's never going to play against left-handers. Pepeo is a... fly ball pitcher. In fact, among pitchers with at least 130 innings last year, he had the 10th highest fly ball rate. He got away with the pitching half his games at Tropicana Field, but I think George M. Steinbrenner Fields in Tampa, the spring training facility where the Razor Force to play this year, is going to be a different story because it has the same dimensions as Yankee Stadium, which you probably know very favorable home run park for left-handed hitters. And by

Starting point is 00:07:20 By the way, it'll probably play as even more homer friendly than that because it's in the Florida humidity where those humidified baseballs just slice through the air. And I think you look at Pepio's ex-fip last year. It was over four. Ex-FIP is the one that really accounts for fly ball rate the most. I think where he's going to be playing his home games, ZRA is going to resemble that X-FIP. Too many fly balls and a park that is murder for them. All right. For more extensive fantasy baseball coverage,

Starting point is 00:07:56 listen to our full-length podcast Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or anywhere else podcasts are found. Thanks for listening to Fantasy Baseball Today Express. And we will be back again next week. Bye-bye. Mount Podcasts.

Fantasy Baseball Today - FBT Express - Busts 1.0! Mark Vientos, Willy Adames & Other Player to Avoid! (2/1 Fantasy Baseball podcast)

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