Fantasy Baseball Today - FBT Express - Can These Breakouts Repeat in 2025? Jackson Merrill, Brenton Doyle & More! (1/11 Fantasy Baseball podcast)

Episode Date: January 11, 2025

Download and follow Fantasy Baseball Today Express! You can find FBT Express on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, the Audacy App and wherever else podcasts are found. Will these breakouts repeat in 2025? Let's start with Jarren Duran! Jackson Merrill just had a strong rookie season as a 21 year old. Will Brenton Doyle keep his strikeouts down? What about Mark Vientos? To display your continued support of the show, please vote Fantasy Baseball Today in the Sports Podcast Awards in the "Best Baseball Podcast" Category https://www.sportspodcastgroup.com/sports_category/best-baseball-podcast/ Fantasy Baseball Today Express is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today Express on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today in 5 podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today in 5 podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Will these breakouts repeat their success in 2025? Find out next on Fantasy Baseball Today Express. Welcome into FBT Express on Saturday, January 11th. I am Frank Stamphle, joined by Scott White. Let's take a look at the biggest breakouts from last season and talk about whether or not they will repeat that success in 2025. Up first is Jaron Duran, who finished as a top three outfielder in both Roto and head-to-to-head points. He hit 285, 21 homers, 34 steals,

111 run scored. Scott, what do you think the chances are that Jaron Duran repeats his success? I'm going to put this on an eight, as an eight on the one to ten scale. Is that what we're doing here? One to ten scale? We can do that.

Let's do it that way. And the reason why is because if you look at what he did last year, it was really just a continuation of 2023, by the percentages. He was a part-time player in 23. He got full-time at bats and sustained it.

So we have seen Jaron do this before. I know if it's kind of a one-hit wonder quality, but it's more that a part-timer had his role extended and became a full-timer and he was able to sustain that production. So I think it's legit.

I'm not going, like among the second round picks, he seems riskier. But I do think it's more likely than not that he follows up on this performance. All right, let's talk about Jackson Merrill, who finished as a top 12 outfielder in both Roto and head-toad points, second in National League rookie of the year voting behind Paul Skeens,

hit 292 with 24 homers, 90 RBI, 16 steals. He did all of that as a 21-year-old. Scott, the breakout repeat ometer on Jackson Merrill. Nine. I feel great about Jackson Merrill. and I think relative to Jackson Churio, he's being underappreciate. He was actually the better of the two for fantasy this past season. But he's going a full round later, more or less, by ADP.

I have the two back to back. I do have Churio higher because I think he's probably the better base stealer. But Merrill, you know, he's fast too, 81st percentile sprint speed. I think he could get to 20, 25 steals potentially. But more as a hitter, what Jackson Merrill did as a, hitter 20 years old, making a big leap to the majors. The forward facing numbers are great.

The expected stats were even better. He had a 303XBA. An expected batting over 300, you hardly ever see that. His ex-slug was 534. So by the data, he was even better than he showed. And what he showed was top 25 type production.

I think low strikeout rate. There's a lot here that reminds me of Bobby Witt when he was first starting out. All right, Scott, it's time to talk about your boy, Cole Regens. He finished as a top 15 starter in both Roto and head-to-head-to-head points. He made 32 starts with a 314 ERA, a 11-14 whip, nearly 11 strikeouts per 9. Scott, the breakout repeatometer for Cole Riggins. 9.5. This is about as close as 10 to a 10 as it gets. obviously. You didn't need me to explain that part to you, but nonetheless, I did. And I would say that there's a very clear top seven at starting pitcher, and I include Reagan's in it. It's a different top seven than what ADP shows. But to me, very clear, safe group of aces. Regans is in it. The reason I don't go all the way to 10 is because there was this weird dip in velocity over his final 15 starts. It didn't affect his performance. It's 3.26,

the IRA 113 whip 10.5K per 9 during that stretch. But it was a big enough drop that it strikes me as sort of a red flag, especially from a player who first entered the fantasy discussion because of a big velocity increase. So because it didn't affect Reagan's performance, I'm kind of just willing to dismiss it. It was just kind of an oddball thing that happened.

But it is in the back of my mind and I'll certainly make much more of it if things go wrong for Reagan's this upcoming season. All right. Let's take a quick break. We'll be back right after this. Will these breakouts repeat in 2025? Next up we have Brenton Doyle, who is a top 10 outfielder in Roto, top 20 in head-toe. He was one of 10 players to go 2030. He had 23 homers, 30 steals. He dropped his strikeout rate tremendously.

He's an amazing defender. Scott, what do you think of Brenton Doyle, the breakout repeatometer for him? I'm going to give you some lower scores now. I'm going six here for Brent and Doyle. I actually do have him on my busts 1.0, which is going to be out this upcoming week. And the reason is because it just seems like it's a tight rope walk for him to have the kind of season he did. I want to put it past him doing that again. But his numbers are terrible at home.

We're talking an OPS just a little over 600. So it's already in doubt whether you should be starting Doyle and fantasy when the Rocky. are on the row. But in addition to that, it means he has to be a total world beater at home. Very little margin for error there. And that's not totally unexpected for a rocky sitter. It just seems like Doyle's an extreme case of that. The other thing is that as a rookie in 2023, he struck out like 35% of the time, totally untenable. If you look at his minor league track record, it's closer to that than what he did this past season. Strikeout rate around 25%. That's a big increase. And again, totally new for Doyle. Apparently, he did make some changes to his swing to try and improve the strikeout rate,

be shorter to the ball. Maybe that's something that just carries on for the rest of his career. But we've seen before from hitters big strikeout gains given back the following year. And if that happens for Doyle, then he might not be that worth starting at home either. So again, I don't think that's the most likely scenario for him, but it's a likely enough scenario that he's among those that I'm more worried about on this list. While we're expressing concerns about strikeouts, let's wrap up with Mark Vientos, who took a huge step forward. He showed elite power, 27 home runs, a 249 ISO in 111 games. And then in the postseason, he looked like one of the best players in baseball.

He had five home runs in 13 games, elite quality of contact. But Scott, questions about the swing and miss in Mark Vientos' game. Where does he rank on the breakout repeatometer? I'm putting him even lower than Doyle. He's a five, also on my busts one. point O coming up. And it looked like he had he had whipped the strikeout issue early last season through June 30th, just a 22% rate.

That's part of the reason he entered the Mets lineup in the first place. But from that point four, the final three months, 33% strikeout rate for Viantos. And it's hard to hit much better than 200 to 20 with a strikeout rate that high. Usually you have to be an outlier for how hard you hit the ball. Vantos hits the ball hard, but he's not like an O'Neo Cruz at least. De La Cruz level outlier striking out that much. So that's a lot to overcome.

With that 33% strikeout rate over the final three months, he hit 256, but that's with a 33-Bap from a player who doesn't have great line drive skills. So that seems unsustainable too. And this kind of profile, it more often results in like Patrick Wisdom-type numbers or Eugenio Suarez when he was not so great. the lesser years for Eugenio Suarez. And that's what I fear Viantos could regress to being with that big jump and strikeout rate.

And then, you know, the Mets still have Brett Bady around. They have Ronnie Maricio coming back from a torn ACL. They have alternatives if Viantos does drop off. So that's another thing you have to worry about with him. All right. For more extensive fantasy baseball coverage, listen to our full-length podcast, Fantasy Baseball today on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or anywhere else podcasts are found.

Thanks for listening to Fantasy Baseball Today Express, and we will be back again next week. Bye-bye. Mount Podcasts.