Fantasy Baseball Today - FBT Express - Nick Pivetta to the Padres & Kenley Jansen to the Angels! (2/15 Fantasy Baseball podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 We had a bunch of news this week. Nick Povetta to the Padres, Kenley Jansen to the Angels. Let's discuss on Fantasy Baseball Today Express. Welcome in to FBT Express on Saturday, February 15th. I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Chris Towers, and let's break down the news from the week. We already did an emergency podcast on Alex Bregman, so be sure to check that out if you want to hear our thoughts there.

Starting point is 00:00:22 But Bregman wasn't the only news that we got. Nick Povetta is headed to the Padres on a four-year $55 million deal, 32 years old. He has some swing and miss. The underlying numbers have looked pretty good. He improved the control last year. And he's moving to a much better pitching environment in the Padres. Chris, can you talk yourself into Nick Povetta again? The last time I talked myself into Nick Povetta was 2019, I think, or 2018. You're ready to be hurt. Yeah, I mean, famous last words for a fantasy analyst is I'm talking myself into Nick Povetta. And a bunch of people did it last offseason. And he was still Nick Povetta. And I don't think he can be anything but Nick Povetta. And so if you go into this with clear eyes and full hearts and understanding that Nick Povetta is going to get a lot of strikeouts, he's going to have a pretty good whip, sub 1.15 each the past two seasons. And he's probably going to have an ERA that starts with a four. It's hard to be disappointed. And the move to San Diego does potentially give him the opportunity to improve one of the things that he's,

Starting point is 00:01:29 is worse at, which is he gets hit really hard and he gives up a lot of home runs. Well, San Diego is a pretty good park for suppressing quality of contact. He's going to have a decent outfield defense behind him. He's going to have pretty far fences for guys to be targeting with their home runs. So you look at it all. And again, as long as you're not talking into yourself into, hey, Nick Pavetta might be an ace, I do think Nick Pavetta is probably worth drafting as like an SP5 this season. You, you, you, You'll have to go into it knowing that if you've already got some ERA risk on your team, if you drafted Aaron Nola as your SP2, let's say, a guy who generally has a higher ERA than you'd like,

Starting point is 00:02:12 then you probably don't need Nick Povetta. But if you drafted some guys with some whip risk early on and you can live with maybe a little inflated ERA because you need the strikeout help, yeah, I think Nick Povetta inside the top 200 makes sense. And right now his ADP outside the top 200, almost 250. So I do expect that to climb closer to the top 200. And I'm willing to pay a top 200 price to get Nick Pavetta. Yeah. And I think as a result of this, we've heard all offseason that the Padres are shopping Dylan Seas

Starting point is 00:02:44 and Michael King. They're both entering the final year of team control. So that adds another element here where I don't know where those guys could wind up, but Boston, the Mets, the Orioles. I think could all be on the radar as potential trade candidates here with Dylan Cis and or Michael King. Let's slide over to the Angels who signed Kenley Jansen to a one-year $10 million deal. So much for Ben Joyce as the team's closer, because Kenley Jansen obviously is one of the best that we've seen do it. He's proven.

Starting point is 00:03:17 He was still solid last year, 335 ERA 108 WIP, 27 saves. Chris, where did you move Kenley Jansen up to in your relief pitcher rankings? Believe it or not, I actually didn't move Kenley Jansen in my rankings because I've been assuming he was going to sign somewhere to be a closer the whole time. Kenley Jansen is no longer what he was at his peak, which is arguably the best reliever in baseball. But he has not declined so much that I think he's at the point in his career where he has to take some job where he's not closing or he has to prove himself. Kenley Jansen was always going to sign somewhere where he was going to be allowed to close. and I think his ERA or his ADP should have been reflecting that all along, and it didn't. And that's fine because it's been a discount all along.

Starting point is 00:04:02 He's a top 20 reliever for me in fantasy for the 2025 season. He doesn't have the upside he once did, but he's still a rock solid closer who typically has an ERA in the mid to low threes. Pretty good whips, generally speaking, more than a strikeout per inning. It's not a great team context. He's not going to get a ton of save opportunities, but there's a chance for 70. I think the Angels will be not an embarrassment more often than not. So, yeah, I think Kenley Janssen, what he did last year, 27 saves, a 330 ERA.

Starting point is 00:04:38 I think that's a reasonable expectation and someone who's worth drafting as an RP2. All right, let's take a quick break. We'll be back right after this. Welcome back in FBT Express. We're breaking down the biggest news of the week. and one update we got from the Orioles is that Felix Batista has a quote very good chance of being

Starting point is 00:04:56 part of the Orioles opening day roster which is interesting news because I just kind of assume that all along but apparently Batista likely won't be clear to pitching games until late in spring training and remember that he didn't just have Tommy John surgery in October of 2023. Bautista also had

Starting point is 00:05:12 an elbow debridement and an ulnar nerve transposition about a year ago this time in February of last year just seems a little bit fishy here, Chris. I know you've been kind of vocal about fading Felix Bautista. This is probably another reason to do that. I am confused and surprised at how much optimism there has been for Felix Bautista throughout draft season.

Starting point is 00:05:39 To the point where I'm actually looking it up now, his price in NFC, NFBC ADP has actually gone up as drafts have gone on. His ADP was around 83rd in the month of January, in 35 drafts in February. It's 74.5. I don't understand. I know that the last time we saw him pitch, he was arguably the best reliever in the world. And it was like a 17% K rate or a 17.2K per 9, a sub 1.5 ERA. He was about as good as a closer can be.

Starting point is 00:06:15 But we're just drafting him without having seen him throw a pitch since then. And we're drafting him as like the number seven or number eight closer off the board around where Mason Miller is being drafted. I get that there are concerns and risks with Mason Miller. He was arguably the best reliever in baseball last year. And he's not currently coming back from shoulder or elbow surgery. So I just, I don't understand why people have been so optimistic about Batista. I'm hoping the price gets a little more reasonable. I have him as my RP12.

Starting point is 00:06:46 And even that feels like giving him a lot of the benefit of the doubt. If we're not going to see him throw a pitch in a game until most drafts have happened, that just feels like a huge risk. If he's not going to throw until later in spring training, even if he's ready for opening day, we just don't know if he's going to be the same guy. I get that the upside's there, but we're tying the upside for 55 to 60 innings,

Starting point is 00:07:09 not 180, like some of the pitch, like a starting pitcher. So I think Felix Batista has been overrated all along. and if he remains a top 10 RP, I think he'll still be overrated. Yeah, I ranked him as my eighth closer in fantasy. I'm gonna drop him down to 11 with this news. I just, I ranked him that way because I thought we would be further,

Starting point is 00:07:31 far enough away from surgeries, that he would just be okay. Like there would be no restrictions going into spring training. He would be good. He would already be throwing. There would be no issues. But the fact that they're kind of bringing him along slowly

Starting point is 00:07:42 and they're almost being a little bit cryptic with this, it just seems a little bit. So I think there's a little bit more risk. I'm going to drop him down the rankings a little bit. But maybe he shows up in spring in those games and he just looks like himself. You know, there still is a way that this works out for Felix-Bautista, but obviously there is risk involved with drafting him. For more extensive fantasy baseball coverage, listen to our full-length podcast,

Starting point is 00:08:04 Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or anywhere else podcasts are found. Thanks for listening to Fantasy Baseball Today Express. And we will be back again next week. Bye-bye. Thank you.

Fantasy Baseball Today - FBT Express - Nick Pivetta to the Padres & Kenley Jansen to the Angels! (2/15 Fantasy Baseball podcast)

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