Fantasy Baseball Today - FBT Express - Outfield & Starting Pitcher Questions for 2026 Drafts! (9/23 Fantasy Baseball podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 It's never too early for 2026 rankings questions. Up next on Fantasy Baseball Today Express. Welcome in to FBT Express on Tuesday, September 23rd. I am Frank Sample joined by Chris Towers. Just a three-game slate here on Monday, so not too much going on. It's the final week of the season. Let's look ahead. Let's have a little bit of fun.

Starting point is 00:00:20 On our full-day podcast, we spoke a lot about infield rankings questions for 2026. So for this, we'll take a look at some outfield and pitching questions. And Chris, at the top of the outfield rankings next season, Juan Soto is going to be a very early round pick, but trying to project how many steals we're going to get from him will be incredibly difficult. Yeah, and it's one of those things where he's such a good hitter that it might not matter because, you know, he's been a pretty,

Starting point is 00:00:51 iffy source of batting average in recent years. But if Juan Soto went out and hit 310 next season with his usual, usual 40 home runs, I wouldn't really be surprised. If he does that, then whatever stolen bases you get from him are going to be a bonus. Yeah. But if he's a 270 hitter, like he's been last this year and really over the course of the past four seasons combined, he's sitting 269, then the stolen bases might really matter. And I just have no idea. Like the, the Mets first base coach has gotten a lot of credit for his ability to read pitchers and then get these guys in good situations.

Starting point is 00:01:27 I find it weird that Juan Soto seems to be the only guy taking advantage of that on the team. Everyone else is pretty much doing their normal thing. And he has been the most prolific base stealer in baseball in the second half of the season, which is just bizarre. I don't know. I would set the over-under first stolen bases for Wonsetto in 2026 at 19.5. I genuinely have no idea what to do with that. I would get, my inkling is take the unethical.

Starting point is 00:01:57 but it's not a strong sense. Yeah, his previous high was 12 steals. He has nearly tripled that already. He's at 35 and honestly it feels like he is gunning for a 40 40 season this year. So it wouldn't surprise me if he picks up a couple more steals the rest of this week. And so yeah, we'll just have to try and figure that out

Starting point is 00:02:19 in the off season, but ultimately he's a first rounder either way. Yeah, he's a top five or six pick, but it's just, yeah, what version of, Juan Soto are we going to get next year. I want to talk about Pete Crow Armstrong and James Wood, both struggling here in the second half, which kind of brings questions up for where they're going to rank, where they're going to be drafted next season. So PCA in the second half, 207 batting average, four homers, eight steals, 605 OPS, James Wood in the second half, 212 batting average, three homers, three steals, a 40% strikeout rate. I know Scott just

Starting point is 00:02:55 re-ranked his top two rounds for next season. He didn't have either of these players in there. I kind of feel like they're going to fall somewhere in the third round for next season. Yeah, I mean, at the All-Star break, a lot of our listeners were pounding the table that both of these guys should be first rounders. And now, yeah,

Starting point is 00:03:11 I'm not sure. At the break, they looked like it, yeah. And in Woods case, I think the biggest concern is the lack of stolen bases because he came up last year and stole 14. It was a really low success rate, but that didn't matter. They were letting him run.

Starting point is 00:03:26 Well, this year, it's only 15. And we kind of see this across the board with the Nationals. I think Dylan Cruz has still ran into a decent clip, but Luis Garcia is nowhere near where he was last year. CJ Abrams has kind of capped out right around 30. And now Wood, only 15 in a full season is very disappointing because we thought he was going to be a 30-30 type guy. And that makes the iffy batting line way a lot heavier in his line,

Starting point is 00:03:52 especially because players don't tell. tend to run more the older they get. That tends to be something that peaks early. And so if James Wood is really like a 15 to 20 stolen base guy, I think it's a lot harder to talk about those first round outcomes because strikeout rates gone in the wrong direction. He's hit for more power, but he's still not fully actualizing that yet. And so there's a ton of power here. He hits the ball really hard. He's tremendously physically talented. But James Wood, I think even in the third round feels like a pretty big risk. He's the number 44 hitter so far this season.

Starting point is 00:04:31 Peaker Armstrong's 20th. I think his flaws are perhaps even greater than James Woods, but one thing Peaker Armstrong has going for him is he, his skills are more fully actualized right now. He is better capable of putting his skills into play in games. And you see that with the 29 homers. You see that with the sky high, pulled air rate for, Pete Carr Armstrong that, you know, despite his very poor swing decisions, despite the pretty

Starting point is 00:05:00 bad plate discipline, I think that still gives him a higher floor than James Wood, along with the fact that he's arguably the best defensive player in baseball. That'll help too. But, you know, PCA does have platoon concerns. Can he hit lefties at all? It's an open question. I think P. Kirk Armstrong is actually probably the safer bet in the third round than James would, though. All right, let's take a quick break. We'll be back right after this. Welcome back in, FBT Express,

Starting point is 00:05:30 taking a way too early look at some rankings questions for next season. Next up, we have how high will Jacob Marcy be drafted next year? So he's 24 years old, very impressive showing. 319 batting average, five homers, 12 steals, 912 OPS. That full season pace is 16 homers, 39 steals for Jacob Marcy. And I brought this up to Scott recently. I don't think you were on that episode. I kind of brought up like Dylan Cruz and PCA and Dominguez

Starting point is 00:05:58 where they were drafted last year and that was in the 120 to 140 range. I kind of feel like Marcy will either settle in around there or be a little bit higher, maybe pushing the top 100. What do you think about that for Jacob Marcy? Yeah, I could see that. He has slowed down a lot in September,

Starting point is 00:06:15 but it's still 277 average, still getting on base and nice clips, still doesn't really strike out all that much. he's a very, very patient hitter. His chase rate is only like 18% or something outrageously low. He makes a lot of contact. He hits the ball hard enough. It's one of those things where it kind of came out of nowhere.

Starting point is 00:06:36 He was awful in the minors last season, but he was really good in the minors this year. And then all of the skills are there. He hits the ball hard enough. He gets the ball in the air. He has got a great eye at the plate. He's a very aggressive base runner as well. So I do think like the 120 range probably makes sense for Jacob Marcy.

Starting point is 00:06:56 I don't know if I would feel comfortable pushing him much higher than that because he doesn't have the outrageous tools that we're often chasing. But just as a pure ball player, I think Jacob Marcy has acquitted himself very, very well in a way that should be pretty conducive to fantasy in 2026. On the pitching side, probably the biggest question up top is who is the SP4 drafted for next season. The top three feels locked in in some order. Terrick Scuba, Garrett Crochet, and Paul Skeen's. SP4 feels wide open from Chris Sale, Logan Gilbert,

Starting point is 00:07:31 Yamamoto, Hunter Brown, Hunter Green, Christopher Sanchez. Take your pick. Jacob de Grom, Brian Wu. I think there are a lot of different ways you can go with this. Do you mention Hunter Brown? Yep. Yeah, a lot of different ways you can go with this. I'm leaning Chris Sale. I'm leaning either Chris Sale or Logan Gilbert actually because I think just in terms of skills they're kind of a little bit ahead of a lot of these guys maybe no Hunter Green although he has clearly the biggest injury concerns as well which is gonna keep him back but you know Gilbert just massive swing and miss stuff the strikeout rate is higher

Starting point is 00:08:08 than ever this year he missed some time with an elbow injury that's a concern Chris Sells had a ton of injuries but they've been mostly fluky and he has been a rock solid 250 ERA over the past two seasons tons of strikeouts. I lean Chris Sale just because his injuries seem the flukiest of these guys. But I think the bigger thing is not who is the SP4, but when do they go off the board? Because I think we're going to see crochet, skeins, and scoble in the first round in most drafts. Certainly 15 team leagues.

Starting point is 00:08:39 I think those guys are just first rounders. I think they're top 15 picks. After that, what do we see happen? Do we see that second group of pitchers get pushed up by the people who missed them? Or what I think should happen is because that second group of pitchers that SP4 to, I don't know, 15 maybe are very similar in terms of projected value, those guys should probably just all go like in the fourth round. Will we be patient enough to actually do that? I think that's an open question. But that's the way it should go.

Starting point is 00:09:13 And my advice sitting here in, you know, late September, it could change a lot in the next. six months until opening day is if you want that second group of pitchers that's fine don't be the first one to take one be the last wait until the end of that tier to take your first or second starting pitcher if you want two other names here that i think will be pretty difficult to rank for next season trevor rogers who's been a league winner from the moment he joined the orio's rotation and kate horton who's just having this ridiculous second half with a point nine three er a 0.79 whip, not completely backed up by the underlying metrics. He has an extensive injury history as well, but those two, I think, will be pretty tough.

Starting point is 00:09:58 There is basically nothing you can do to earn and 0.093 ERA. Like, the peripherals are just never going to be there. You'd have to strike out like 16 per 9 to have a FIP in the one range. So it goes without saying that Trevor Rogers and Kate Horton are going to see significant regression regression next season. The thing that makes Horton so tough as he's been great this year. He has a really long injury history. He's thrown like 115 more innings than he had last season. That kind of just makes me out on him, even if I believe in the skill set. And I think he can be like a mid-threes, high-3s-S-E-R-A guy, but he doesn't miss enough bats in his present form. And so I'm probably going to be out on Kate Horton, depending on where the price ends up. Rogers, what's the so tough with him is the Orioles didn't see this coming right they called remember we talked about this before the show but they called him up back in june or may he had a six and a third inning shutout start they sent him back down to triple a where he was terrible and then they called him back

Starting point is 00:11:06 up and he was so good that he forced them to keep him up how could we have seen this coming his control has been not phenomenal the stuff is good but not amazing i tend to to view this more as a hot streak. Again, though, you could add two and a half runs to Trevor Rogers ERA, and he'd still be a useful fantasy option at 385. I would take the under on 385, but I think it's more mid-threes than super impactful. Yeah, and the underlying metrics do buy what Trevor Rogers has done a little bit more this season, not a 135 ERA, but he's got a 242 FIP and a 308 XERA.

Starting point is 00:11:45 The velocity is up this season. And really all of his main pitches have been very effective this year. Strikeout rate has been going up as the season's gone on as well. Yeah. So Trevor Rogers, I'm interested to see where the ADP winds up. Is he like a top 30, top 36 SP, you know, maybe drafting him as your SP3 or SP4 next season. I can get behind that if that's where it winds up. But we'll see.

Starting point is 00:12:09 We have all offseason to find that out. For more extensive fantasy baseball coverage, listen to our full-length podcast, Fantasy Baseball today, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or anywhere else podcasts are found. Thanks for listening to Fantasy Baseball Today Express, and we will be back again on Thursday. Bye-bye. Podcasts.

Fantasy Baseball Today - FBT Express - Outfield & Starting Pitcher Questions for 2026 Drafts! (9/23 Fantasy Baseball podcast)

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