Fantasy Baseball Today - FBT Express - Rapid-Fire Reactions! Suarez to the Mariners, Duran to the Phillies, Helsley to the Mets! (7/31 Fantasy Baseball podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 We had some big trades already. Let's discuss on Fantasy Baseball Today Express. Welcome in to FPC Express on Thursday, July 31st. Happy trade deadline date to all out there. I am Frank Stamphel joined by Scott White. And let's start with the biggest trade, or one of the biggest, the Mariner's acquired A Eugenio Suarez for Tyler Locklear and two pitching prospects, Hunter Cranton and Juan Burgos.

Starting point is 00:00:27 And this is a, you know, reunion of sorts here for Suarez joining the Mariners once again Scott what do you think this could do for his fantasy value rest of season I think the knee-jerk reaction is to say oh this is really bad news for Suarez and no small part because of those two years

Starting point is 00:00:45 he spent in Seattle which weren't bad but they removed him from like high end consideration of fantasy they made him more of a fringy option for standard size leagues to throw some numbers out at you just using head-to-head points per game as a comparison. 2022, Suarez's first year in Seattle was 2.63 points per game.

Starting point is 00:01:08 That's similar to Zach McKinstree this year. 2023, Suarez's second year in Seattle, just 2.34 points per game. That's similar to Matt Shaw this year. Suarez this year actually is 3.43. So you see how much better it's been for him outside of Seattle. But I think his improvement since leaving the Mariners is less, the reason for the improvement is less an environmental change than a mechanical change. Because if you think back, first of all, his time in Seattle,

Starting point is 00:01:41 the road numbers weren't any better than the home numbers. And also, once he got out of Seattle, once he started his time in Arizona, it's not like things immediately clicked. His first half of his first season in Arizona was terrible. And then he made mechanical changes that caused him to take off in the second half last year. It's been great ever since. Last 365 days. Last calendar year, 273, 53 home runs at 919 OPS.

Starting point is 00:02:08 I don't know that anybody would argue for Suarez to sustain quite that pace, even if he was still in Arizona. But I don't think the drop-off is going to be more significant than it already would have been, if that makes sense. I still see him as a stud with this move. would rather have them stayed at Arizona just because it's less of a question, but I think he'll be fine with the Diamondbacks. The other side of... With the Mariners, he left the Diamondbacks. The other side of this trade is the Arizona Diamondbacks,

Starting point is 00:02:37 and one of the names they got back here is Tyler Locklear, who probably gets a shot at first base right away. He's 24 years old, former second round pick, putting up huge numbers at AAA. And the other name to know is Jordan Lawler, who has a job waiting for him eventually. He's currently on the IL at AAA, dealing with a hamstring injury, 33% rostered.

Starting point is 00:02:57 It's got any interest here in Lawler or Tyler Locklear. And or. Even though Suarez was the biggest name in this deal, maybe the biggest fantasy player that'll be moved at the deadline even. These are the two that actually see their fantasy value changed the most. Locklear was blocked in Seattle, ironically because the Mariners acquired Josh Naylor, the Diamondbacks first baseman, left the Diamondbacks with the need at first base. Okay.

Starting point is 00:03:24 or take the guy we can't play anymore. Locklear has been a name in prospect circles for a couple years now. Actually, he spent some time in the majors last year. But he's taken off in his last 32 games at AAA, especially at 387 batting average 14 home runs. Again, that's just in 32 games. He has good exit velocities, good plate discipline. A tough fit, somebody who didn't rank high on prospect list as a right-hand.

Starting point is 00:03:54 handed hitting first baseman. There's just a really narrow path for those guys. But the path is open in Arizona. So this could go really well for Locklear. I'm not saying he's must add, but I'm saying he must watch because he could exceed his expectations as a prospect. Jordan Lawler's been a top prospect for a long time. Finally has path open to him,

Starting point is 00:04:16 but we still got to wait because he's out with a hamstring injury. Should be back soon, but there haven't been any updates recently. So it's hard to say for sure. But he is, he has the higher priority pickup than Locklear just because of the, the prospect pedigree for Lawler. All right. Let's take a quick break.

Starting point is 00:04:35 We'll be back right after this. Welcome back into FBT Express. In addition to A. Eugenio Suarez, we got some big reliever trades. The Phillies acquired Yohan Duran from the twins in exchange for pitching prospect McAbel and catcher prospect Eduardo Tate. And I just assumed that Duran is going to. to step right in here as the Phillies closer. The other side is also very interesting, Scott,

Starting point is 00:04:59 because assuming the twins now do not trade Griffin, Jacks, he looks like a must-add player in fantasy. So what are your thoughts here on Durant to Philly and maybe Jacks as the Twins closer? I think this was maybe the best scenario for fantasy. Because John Duran, like, he would have been a closer no matter where he went, but the Phillies really need a closer. And of course, they're a really good team,

Starting point is 00:05:24 obvious World Series contender. Rob Thompson has been a little wishy-washy at times with committing to a guy in the ninth inning, but Doran is just a different caliber of reliever, and I don't think the alternatives the Phillies have are as good this year as they've been in past year. So I think, I think Durand's value goes up with this move.

Starting point is 00:05:46 And Jacks, I think, could be a great closer. You know, we just had Cody, or I'm sorry, Cade Smith, added to the closer mix with the manual Class A suspension, and we talked him up as a big pick up there. Jacks is right there with him. Jack's 14.1K per 9 this year. That is third best among relievers with at least 20 innings. And curiously enough, numbers 1 and 2 haven't been closers either.

Starting point is 00:06:18 But Jacks is now, and he could be a good one. Last year's numbers you could argue were even better than this year's. And the other big reliever trade, the Mets responded to the Phillies trading for their closer. They acquire Ryan Helsley from the Cardinals in exchange for three prospects, Jesus Baez, Nate Dome, and Frank Elisalt. And Heldsley, I assume Scott just basically loses all of his value, right? Outside of leagues that use holds, basically. Yeah, holds leagues.

Starting point is 00:06:48 He still has some value, but holds... holds contributors are pretty interchangeable. So even in those leagues, you know, it's not like he's a big deal. He's had a rough year. A rough year maybe is not the best way to put it, but he hasn't looked his dominant year. A whip near 1.4 for Ryan Helsley. And then, of course, he's joining the team with Edwin Diaz, one of the all-time great closers. So I think that effectively nukes Ryan Helsley's fantasy value.

Starting point is 00:07:19 There is an opening in St. Louis now, but unlike in Minnesota, there isn't an heir apparent for saves. Phil Meiton, a veteran, has been the setup man and has had a good year, but he's an impending free agent too, so it's very likely he's gone before he even gets a chance to save a game. So Jojo Romero, the left-hander, would probably be the second best bet there. If for some reason Meiton isn't moved at the deadline, then I imagine those two, the right-ie and the left,

Starting point is 00:07:49 he would probably trade off saves for a while. So there's not anybody I'm enthusiastic about adding from the Cardinals bullpen. Yeah. And if you were relying on Ryan Helsley for saves, Griffin Jax is available. Boom. Make that swap. Go ahead and drop someone like Ryan Helsie to pick up Griffin Jax, who could legitimately be a top 12 closer the rest of the season.

Starting point is 00:08:11 Also worth mentioning a few other names out there being shopped right now, closers in particular. Camillo Doval of the San Francisco Giants. If he's moved, Randy Rodriguez, is definitely a name that needs to be on your radar. And Mason Miller, apparently the athletics are listening on Mason Miller. There's not a clear error apparent for the athletics, but Mason Miller obviously a huge name would be interesting to see

Starting point is 00:08:34 if he gets traded and what that return looks like for a Mason Miller. For more extensive fantasy baseball coverage, listen to our full-length podcast, Fantasy Baseball Today, on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or anywhere else podcasts are found. Thanks for listening to Fantasy Baseball. Today Express and we will be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye. Podcasts.

Fantasy Baseball Today - FBT Express - Rapid-Fire Reactions! Suarez to the Mariners, Duran to the Phillies, Helsley to the Mets! (7/31 Fantasy Baseball podcast)

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