Fantasy Baseball Today - FBT Express - Will These Strong Finishes Affect 2026 Value? (9/25 Fantasy Baseball podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 Let's take a look at five players who are finishing strong. Up next on Fantasy Baseball Today Express. Welcome in to FBT Express on Thursday, September 25th. I am Frank Stample joined by Chris Towers. I want to take a look at five players who are finishing strong and discuss whether or not this will change how we feel about them in 2026. And first up, we have Jackson Merrill, who over his last 16 games is hitting 318, 7 homers,

Starting point is 00:00:27 and OPS over 1100, hitting the ball extremely. hard, putting it in the air, and it obviously is resulting in big production. Chris, what do you think? Will this change or make you feel better about Jackson Merrill for next season? You know, I was pretty surprised when we were talking about this on the big show that you and Scott seemed to be more down on Jackson Merrill than me, because I still think he should be ranked as like a top 15 outfielder. Certainly in Roto leagues next season. I know he only stole one base, but he's dealt with hamstring and ankle injuries. He also, if you remember back in

Starting point is 00:01:00 June went on the aisle with a concussion. He only missed seven days, but concussions are the kind of thing where even if you're cleared to play, it's not always necessarily that you're 100%. If it slows your reaction time a little bit or affects your vision, you know, you could still be able to play, but it might just hold you back. He had an 823 OPS and was hitting 804 or 304 when he went on the aisle with that concussion. So I remain very bullish on Jackson Merrill, and, yeah, I'll take any reasons to be. be optimistic because I am inherently optimistic about him. I can see being in on Merrill next year.

Starting point is 00:01:35 I just don't know that you'll have to even rank him as a top 15 or draft him as the top 15 outfielder. I feel like you'll get a better discount on him, but maybe that's just me hoping with Jackson Merrill. Next up we have Luis Castillo, who was incredible against the Rocky, seven and a third innings, one hit, one run with 10 strikeouts. Over his last four starts, he has allowed just three earned runs over 25 and a third innings. Chris, Will that change how you feel about Luis Castillo for next season? No. And this is fun with arbitrary end points because, yeah, the last four starts have been great.

Starting point is 00:02:10 The five or six starts before that were absolutely horrendous. One of the worst months of Luis Castillo's career. And I think we're nearing the end. I'm not saying he can't be a useful pitcher, certainly for the Mariners or if they trade him this offseason, whichever team he ends up with. I think he's still a valuable innings eater in like a Jose Barrios Chris Bassett type role for what they've done for the Blue Jays.

Starting point is 00:02:38 But as far as Castillo being a consistent difference maker, I do think we're pretty much done there. All the peripherals are worse than they've ever been this season. XERA over four. FIPP is 389. Strikeout rate by far the lowest of his career. I just think Luis Castillo at this point is just a guy. What about Francisco Alvarez, who went one for two with a walk in his 11th home run, updated numbers since returning from the miners.

Starting point is 00:03:06 He's played 388 games hitting 286 with eight home runs and a 968 OPS. Does this, you know, strong finish affect how you feel about Francisco Alvarez for next season? Yeah, but not just because of the last, you know, a couple of games or whatever. It's that whole time since he got demoted. And I include the fact that he hit, I think, 12 homers in 26 games at AAA before getting called back up in that because they sent him down specifically to work on stuff. And he immediately started crushing the ball down there. Then he's come back up and hit like the version of Francisco Alvarez that we always hoped would show up. 968 OPS, eight homers in 38 games.

Starting point is 00:03:51 The average X velocity has been like 93, 94 miles per hour in that time. The only thing is I sound very optimistic. I'm saying all these nice things. I'm very excited by Francisco Alvarez. And then my rankings, my first draft rankings are going to come out next week on the FBT newsletter. And he's not going to be a top 12 catcher. That's just because the position's so strong, though. He might be 13.

Starting point is 00:04:16 He might be 14. He might be 15. Either way, I think Francisco Alvarez is going to be a high priority number two catcher for me. if I want to really wait at in a one catcher league even, I think I'd be okay with him as my starter. I don't think there's going to be that much separating him from the top 12. And he's not going to turn 24 until November of this year. Like as I think he's younger than Augustine Ramirez.

Starting point is 00:04:43 I think he's the same age as Kyle Teal. Like all these guys who had great rookie seasons, Francisco Averas has been around for a while. So I do think there's more room for a break. breakout than most people think. And as loaded as the position is, it could be even better. Scott pointed this out on the full name podcast. There are

Starting point is 00:05:01 three names who won't even have catcher eligibility to start next season. That's Yvonne Herrera, Carter Jensen, and Moises Bayesteros. All of whom could be starters, actually. Pretty exciting players in their own right. So it is a real great time for catchers in fantasy baseball.

Starting point is 00:05:18 Let's take a quick break and we'll be back right after this. Welcome back in, FBT, Express, we're taking a look at players who are finishing strong here, and that is exactly what Tanner Bybee has done. Clutch start here against the Tigers, six innings, one run with five strikeouts, and over his last four outings, it's a 130 ERA, a 0.76 whip, right around a strikeout per inning. He's throwing this cutter harder too, which seems intentional and has led to some success. Chris, will this matter to you for next season with Tanner Bybee? Yes, because I think

Starting point is 00:05:51 it takes Tanner Bybee from a guy wasn't interested in at all last season to someone who I do think should be drafted in most leagues. Like you said, it coincides with the cutter. That's always been pretty much his best swing and miss pitch. Last season, I think

Starting point is 00:06:07 it was a 36% whiff rate. This year it's been more like 30%, but throwing it harder, not necessarily a bad idea because his fastballs have taken a step back this season. And so he needs to figure out something to get that back. the changeups been very good lately, the cutter's been awesome.

Starting point is 00:06:25 I think this does take Tanner Bybee from just a largely non-factor for me in 2026 to someone who probably not as a top 150 pick, but someone who should be drafted in most leagues now. The last name here is Matt Shaw, who went three for four with his 13th homer and 17th steal here on Wednesday, as is the case with a lot of rookie hitters, very rough second half got demoted at least once maybe a few times but came back and in the second half has looked pretty good 267 batting average 11 homers six deals 850 iops is this second half enough for you to have optimism when drafting matchaw for next season um you know there are grading scales

Starting point is 00:07:12 and i think optimism is further on the scale than i'm willing to go hope i think is where i'd go for Matt Shaw. I still have hope for him. Obviously he was a first round pick, breeze through the minors, put up big numbers. The problem is the underlying data is really bad. He is not hitting the ball with authority at all. The only home runs he has hit have been to the extreme pull side, which is actually not a great thing when Wrigley Field is your home because it's actually a really hard place to it's deep down the left field line. It's shallow down the power alleys. And so I just don't know if he has the pop to hit it to the power alleys consistently. So I'm not giving up on Matt Shaw. The athleticism is nice. I could see a step forward as a base dealer next season now he's got a

Starting point is 00:07:58 year under his belt. But the lack of power is really concerning. Even when he's been hitting the ball over the fence, he has not been hitting the ball hard. And so he's more like a corner infield option for 2026 than someone certainly I would not want to draft him as my starter at third base, even at a weak position. All right, for more extensive fantasy baseball coverage, listen to our full-lane podcast, Fantasy Baseball Today, on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or anywhere else podcasts are found. Thanks for listening to Fantasy Baseball Today Express,

Starting point is 00:08:31 and we will be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.

Fantasy Baseball Today - FBT Express - Will These Strong Finishes Affect 2026 Value? (9/25 Fantasy Baseball podcast)

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