Fantasy Baseball Today - Fill in the Blank: Tyler O'Neill's Floor & Justin Verlander's Cost w/ Michael Govier! (12/21 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 21, 2021

Michael Govier (@mjgovier) joins the podcast (1:05)! ... What is Adalberto Mondesi's upside if he stays healthy for 120+ games (4:00)? ... What is Tyler O'Neill's floor (8:35)? ... The Power of Prospects (14:45)! ... What is the percentage change Byron Buxton can stay healthy for 120 games (22:30)? ... What is Shane McClanahan's upside if he throws 160 innings (26:13)? ... MY MY MY SOROKA (30:12)! ... What could Justin Verlander's cost be in March (37:15)? ... How many saves should you expect from Camilo Doval (44:00)? ... Edwin Rios has the strongest hands (47:28)! ... What's a realistic expectation for Alex Bregman's power (54:48)? ... Should you target Luis Castillo at his cost (59:10)?  'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive. Centerfield. What is magnificent? Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality.

Now here's Frank Scott, Chris, and Adam. What's going on, everybody? Welcome to Fantasy Baseball today on Tuesday, December 21st. Frank Stample here. No Scott White, as he's out on a well-deserved vacation, but I am not alone. Happy holidays to everybody. We've got a fun week plan. And if you enjoy Kokomo Friday, you are going to love today's podcast because the guest that I have today is actually one of my favorite people in the industry. I don't know that this person actually knows that,

but someone that is filled with energy, positivity, knows how to have fun, knows his fantasy baseball, and he makes awesome, awesome music. Welcome in to the show, Michael Govier, what, is happening, my man. Hey, oh, wow, I cannot believe it. Do you believe in miracles? Yes, I do. I'm here on the CBS today. Fantasy baseball podcast.

I am thrilled to be here. I did not know that, by the way. Thank you so much for saying that, Frank. It's an honor and a pleasure. And right back at you. Hey, man, look, you deserve the praise. I think you're doing great work. So everyone, make sure you follow him on Twitter

at M-J-G-G-G-O-V-I-E-R over on Twitter. You can listen to him on the Palazzo podcast and over at Roto Fanatic. You can find some of his work there. I know you got a few other things going on as well. So I'll give you the opportunity just here up front before we get started on the fun before we jump in to promote anything that you've got going on right now. Well, Frank, I've been an admirer of this show and it's pretty wild for me to be on here.

I've got to give a shout out to B.YB. The Bless You Boys, that's my home league. They're going to love this. They'll probably be stunned. Casey and the crew are going to be shocked at him on. podcast today. So thank you for that. I run Rodafanatic with several wonderful people, including Matt Williams. Matt Williams is an excellent analyst, and he has his player breakdowns all available. They say they're the best in the business. They're like thread after threat on Twitter with detailed

analysis that gives you everything you need to know about each individual player. We index them all at rotafinatic.com. It's a great way to make sure you're really in touch with your player analysis, and Matt's one of the best in the biz. Plus, we have other people who do great work there. And you can check it follow out at rotofanatic.com. And lastly, we have a thing going on with fantracks too. So if you go to fantracks.com slash rotofanatic, we're doing a bunch of leagues there. So if you sign up for leagues, you're going to play anyways, go to fantracks.com slash rotofanatic and you'll have a good time, I swear. Yeah, look, this is, I understand it's a very early time. There's probably a lot of people that are not drafting, but there are some people that are currently drafting. And right now,

I mean, it's a good way to just become familiar with the player pool, ADP, see where some players are going. And you can do a bunch of best ball draft. drafts right now. And there's no in-season management. You literally just draft your team and you accrue points throughout the course of the season. And I know fan tracks is a place where you can play those best ball drafts. So if you're looking for something to get in on right now, it's just kind of, you know, become familiar with what the player pool looks like in fantasy baseball in 2022. I think that's a good way to do exactly that. I mentioned on the podcast today, we're going to have some music, some songs that Mike created himself. Every like 15, 20 minutes throughout the course of

the podcast, I will introduce a new song and we'll talk about. said song and the players involved in that song. And of course, we will do a little bit of fill in the blank here on the podcast. Honestly, Mike, I wanted to come up with something more fun than that, more fun than fill in the blank because, again, you're a fun dude, you bring the energy. But hey, look at me. I think fill in the blank will be just fine. So let's start there.

Number one. And again, these are all for polarizing players. And look, if we're talking polarizing players, you know who we got to start with. It's got to be Adelberto Monashie. So fill in the blank, number one, if Adelberto Monisey plays 120 games this year. 120. That's a lot of games

for Adelberto Mondesi. He will hit blank home runs with blank stolen bases. Mike, you're up. 120 games. Wow. That's not really something we know Mondesie ever to have reached.

But I would say 27 home runs and 62 steals. Oh my gosh. That is just a completely absurd number. And I don't blame you. I don't blame you, right? Like, based on when he... He's going to be there.

I mean, 120 games. That's a... He steals bases like a madman, Frank. So I think this is... Which one's more ridiculous? The steals number of the homers? Man, that is a good question. Probably the home runs, which is crazy to say, because like, 62 steals over 120 games is

just a completely ridiculous number. But let's just look at what he did this past season, right? Six homers, 15 steals, super small sample size. I get it. Only 35 games. That is a 20 homer, 51 steel pace over 120 games. So you're really not even that far off. So I know that those projections sound lofty.

Again, Steamer, as of now, over on Fangraphs, has Monashie projected for 136 games, which, look, let's be honest, it seems pretty ridiculous. I mean, he's never played more than 102 games at the MLB level. He did play 59 out of 60 in the shortened season in 2020. So he managed to stay healthy that year. We all remember what happened in the short season. His first month was awful.

his second month was amazing. Some people might have picked him up, and he won you Fantasy Baseball Championships. So you say 27 homers, 62 steals. I'll go with, hmm, if he can get to 120 games, let's say, I'll say 23 homers, 53 steals, which is just like, is completely insane. Now, Mike, do you actually like drafting Adelberta Monashy?

Are you someone that's willing to take the plunge and take the chance on Monashy? I'll pull up his ADP real quick. I know that it is lower this year than it has been in years past. But overall in the NFBC right now, Monise's ADP is 53.46. So if you're playing a 12-teamer, that's like an early fifth round pick. If you're playing a 15-teamer, that's a mid-fourth round pick. What do you think?

Yeah, you know, this is strange because I've tried before the show. I prepped. I really did. I put it in the work, folks. Believe it or not, I do put in the effort. I always try to keep it real. If I'm not doing the work, I'll tell you. But in this case, I was excited to be on this podcast. And I'm like, okay, whose career mirrors Alberto's in terms of this injury plagued early on like 20s to 25?

First off, a guy we're going to talk about next actually kind of connects to that as well. But there's not a lot of guys I could find. I mean, there's guys that get injured when they're 25 to 27. I thought of Michael Brantley. Michael Brantley was a guy who had a couple of years there where he was really injured. People said he was a lost cause, but he came back and was very, very good for the Astros. So for me, Mondecy is a guy drafted second round last year.

I'll admit that freely. I didn't do it often. But last year, I drafted him in the second round of my very own Pilato podcast invitational, which is a draft and hold, 50 rounds, do or die. You're stuck with the players you have, rest of season. So that really did not go very well for me, especially in a format like draft and hold where you're just stuck with your roster. Yeah. No, I drafted him in one of those as well in NFBC draft champions last year in the second round.

I think I followed up with like DJ LaMayhew in the third round. So boom, that was a great team. Those were my first two hitters drafted there. So it did not turn out to be a great one.

You brought up Michael Brantley. I tried to think of a comp as well. Jacoby Ellsbury was someone that kind of came to mind. You know, he was injured. He had that one massive season with Boston. But yeah, look, Monasee is in a league

of his own. He is a very polarizing player, rightfully so, very injury prone. No, you don't technically get a zero. when he's out, you know, you could fill in while, you know, he's injured. He's his third base eligible as now. Maybe he plays shortstop in the season starts.

It seems like Bobby Witt is going to get called up one way or another early on in the season. Whether to play shortstop or third base, I think that's kind of up in the air right now. So regardless, I would not project Monashie for 120 games. Maybe I project him for 80 to 100, something like that. And anything I get more than 100, I think I would just be really, really happy with. As of now, even with the discount, I don't think Monashie is someone that I'm going to be drafting myself. Fill in the blank number two. We are up to

Tyler O'Neill. If Tyler O'Neill's ceiling, let's just say his ceiling is 40 homers and 20 steals. Last year he hit 34 homers, 15 steals over I didn't write down how many games he has because why would he do? 138 games. It was 138 games.

If that's his ceiling, 40-20, then his floor is blank. What say you? Oh boy, man. I think his floor Or, does this include injuries? Are we saying he plays those games, right? Yeah, yeah.

So let's assume that he's healthy for these games. Obviously, strikeouts could be an issue. So he managed to hit 286 the season. He impacts the ball really hard. The guy is a freak. A physical freak. There's no doubt about that. He's super strong.

He's super fast. And we just saw it this season. He finally managed to stay healthy. So let's just assume health here. What is his downside? What is the floor for him in terms of home runs and steals? Oh, that's. I gotta tell you here, I'm going to say his floor, if he plays that much, is 22 home runs.

He's a very high Babbup guy, by the way. You look at his stats and you think, well, he got really lucky with the batting average last year. But throughout his minor league career, too, he was a high Babbup dude. So don't be turned off by, oh, he's a fluke with the high Babbitt, but the average is going to take. But for me, it's 22 home runs. And I still say if he plays that many games, he should crack 25 steals. 22 homers, 25 steals. So you like the. floor quite a bit. What about the batting average? What do you think about the batting average? Because the strikeouts again, 31% strikeout rate this year. He still manage a 286 batting average,

largely because of that babbib. But he impacts the ball so hard. So I think he will maintain a high babbip. What do you think? What is the floor here in terms of the batting average for him? Well, anybody who gets unlucky with a babbip that goes down the toilet is going to have a bad batting average. That's basically just how the game works. But he, like I said, consistently has a solid babb. I expect the floor here. If things go south in that many games, by the way, the other thing here, Frank, this has to be brought up. What's the baseball like this year? Like, baseball is driving me bonkers. We never even know which baseball's in the game anymore. What type is it? Is it the one that cranks out homers? Is it the one that limits homers?

We never know the players don't know. So that's just a variable. I'm going to throw in there that we cannot forget about. But having said all that, that one aside, even though it's a huge, huge Lots of ball sitting out there. I'll say that 2.25 probably is the floor. Okay, so 22 homers, 25 steals for you. I will agree with the batting average. I think the floor can get pretty low there, especially with how much he strikes out.

I mean, an over 32% strikeout rate for his career. Definitely could, you know, that could sour. That could definitely hurt things as the season goes along. But, yeah, I think 22 is probably a good number in terms of the home runs. We just saw 15 steals this year. I'll say, you know, 12 steals. So, I mean, really, is his floor that bad? I think the batting average, yeah, but home run steals,

it seems like he's going to be pretty safe in terms of that. So you look at Stackass again. Like, if you follow Stackass at this point, this guy is amazing. Like, he's built, he's chiseled, super strong, 98th percentile sprint speed, 97th percentile barrel rate. You don't see those two things together with one player very often. Can he stay healthy? I think that's part of it.

Again, for this exercise, we were assuming health, but he played 138 games this past season. He played 107 back in 2019. And then in 2018, he played 125 games, and that was across all levels. So he has to show us that he could stay on the field. His current ADP is Tyler O'Neill 50.97. So he's not really far off from Monashy,

who we were just talking about. He's an early fifth-round-picking 12-team league. he's in the fourth round of a 15 teamer. Who would you rather have? Tyler O'Neill or Alberto Mondesie. Oh, come on, man. To me, the safer play would probably be O'Neill. Yeah.

Just because I trust the Cardinals more to do the right thing with their players. And also, I'm taking what Mr. Moore, the general manager of the Kansas City Royal, said very seriously about limiting his playing time in the future. That means Modesee would be limited because they just can't trust him to be an everyday player.

You know, he made a big stink about that. back in late August, early September when he says he didn't know if modesty could ever be an everyday player. And I take that seriously, especially, we'll talk about this later as well, a lot of fun talent coming up for this squad in Kansas City. All right. Just in terms of outfielders, Tyler O'Neill going just ahead of George Springer, Randy O'Rosa Rana. What do you think? You agree with that?

Would you take O'Neill ahead of both of those guys? No, I would definitely take Randy of Rose Arena. In fact, I wrote it down in my prep. I would prefer to take a Rosarina over O'Neill entirely if I was in that situation, which they both are. Rosarino's around 56 ADP, according to my latest data, give or take. So I'm taking a Rosarina all day. I love the raise. I trust the raise. I don't worry about platoons as much. A Rosarina seems to play through that consistently, and he's going to keep getting better. I love a Rosarina big time in 2022. They're kind of similar players, though, you know,

a Roserina and Tyler O'Neill, they're just kind of like these freak athletes. They strike out both quite a bit. But that's true. Yeah. No, I think... Springer gets hurt a lot. Springer, I'm not interested in Springer. Even though it's a great team, a great offense. I just...

I can't trust him to be out there enough. Yeah, no, I hear you there. I kind of just want to grab as many pieces of the Blue Jays as I possibly can. I mean, that offense was so, so ridiculous last season. They lose Marcus Semy, and so I think we all kind of project, like, they'll take a step back. How much of a step back? I don't know. I mean, hopefully Lordes Geryl can bounce back.

They still have a ton of great pieces in that offense, so... They got young talent coming in there, too. There's another guy we'll talk about. later. I'm telling you, that is a team that is loaded with so much talent, oozing opportunity. The one guy leaves, they're like, hey, it's fine. We got plenty to reload with. Yeah, Gabriel Moreno, Jordan Groschon, lots of players coming here for the Toronto Blue Jays, which brings us to our first song that I wanted to play from you, Mike. And it's very relevant right now because we were just talking about a few prospects. So what we're going to do is we'll

play these songs, and then we'll kind of talk about it from a fantasy perspective. And song number one, you're up. Dude, that is amazing. You said these over earlier today. I'm like, is that really you? It's amazing. Thank you. Yeah, you know, I did that one early on in 2021,

and I got some positive responses from it. I actually think it's one of my favorites as well, because I love Huey Lewis in the news, and it just kind of worked out. Now, Wander Franco's like, Beyond a prospect, he's a real player now. That's how much time has already traveled by. Yeah, so I'm actually doing my,

first and at BC draft champions right now. And I wound up with Wander Franco. I drafted him at the end of the fifth round. I think at the time that was like his max pick. So I was like, all right, I don't really love when he goes in the third round. But if he's going to last to the fifth round, sure, I'll take a shot on Wander Franco. Great call. So with the power of prospects, Mike, give us one. Give us one of your favorite prospects to target in redraft leagues in 2022. All righty. Well, you know, I was out there for the first pitch, which is a fun little baseball event that happens every year related to the Arizona Fall League. And I got to see, unfortunately, I only saw one game. I should have gone to more games, but it was my first time and it was so busy. And I met so many people in real life for

the first time. You know, I started doing this right before COVID started. So I've been doing a lot of this online and through virtual settings. So it was fantastic to connect with legit prospect people. You know, it was so cool to do that. And I got to see that one game and some players inspired. me. But the one that I really, really was impressed by, and I'm thinking in redraft, I'm excited about it's probably right now. I think it's Juan Yuppez of the Cardinals. Now, he's getting a lot of buzz. He kicked butt in the Arizona Falle. He looked really, really good. He's a guy who's turning 24. He was part of a Matt Adams trade a few years back from Atlanta. It was just a, or no, last year's, no, a couple years ago. Whenever they got rid of Matt Adams. Matt Adams was on Atlanta. He's been on so

many teams now. I've lost track. Point being is Juan Yippez is able to keep the strikeout rate down with a nice walk rate around 12%. Keeps the strikeouts are 20% or under, and he's increased his power and his overall swing and approach. He had a 154 WRC plus in 92 games at AAA last year. Now, the only caveat is he's probably going to rely on the DH to be redraft usable this year. That's the only concern because he's got Paul Goldschmidt and other players that are in the mix at the corner infield. He could play a little bit outfield too if he needs to, but he's probably a first baseman slash DH. Yeah, we had the Welsh on recently kind of doing like an AFL recap, and he talked to us a lot about Juan Yippez. And he likes him quite a bit. He said, you know, the Universal D.H with the Cardinals is something that could definitely get Ypres some playing time.

And then he brought up Lars Nupar. And he's like, don't forget about Lars Nupar because he was really, really good down at the AFL as well. He can't forget about Lars Nupar. Such a great name. The best name in baseball history to date. Unreal. He told us that apparently Lars Nupar trademarked it and he's legitimately coming up with some kind of candy bar. Yes! Yes! We're all thinking it and you did it, Lars. Thank you, Lars. That is amazing.

Yeah, so Waniapez, a name to remember, Lars Nupar as well, two that can kind of work their way in. Universal D.H. Maybe Newt Bar is a fourth outfieler if our guy, Tyler O'Neill struggles a little bit, if Harrison Bader struggles a little bit, a little bit. Maybe Lars Nupar can work his way into a little bit more playing time there as well. A name that I'm pretty interested in redraft in terms of prospects for 2022. Jose Miranda, he's kind of like Juan Ypres in that he doesn't have a position.

He's kind of positionless within the twins' organization. He just had one of the best seasons in the minor leagues where he hit 344, 30 homers, a 973 OPS. And I kind of think the twins can use them at this point. I was a little surprised that they didn't call him up towards the end of last season, but whether he gets some at bats at third base, can he play a little first base,

can he DH for them? Do they bring Nelson Cruz back? I don't know. There's a couple of things up in the air right now. But Jose Miranda, especially that he has third base eligibility. Third base is bad. It is not a good position. And I'm trying to find upside late in some of these drafting hold leagues.

And Jose Miranda is someone that I've drafted already so far myself. So he's a name that I'm looking at. Mike, is there anyone else you'd like to mention maybe a prospect that you're looking to buy in Dynasty? Ooh, I love Dynasty. I'm getting more into Dynasty over the last two years. I've been playing keeper leagues for years, right? But there's a difference between keepers and dynasty. You would agree?

Oh, yes, for sure. I think keepers, my home league is a keeper league. You know, you keep like four, some keeper leagues. You keep six players. And then I play in the Scott White Dynasty League, which is a 24-team points league where you can, like, there's contracts involved and they move up every year. But you can essentially keep your entire team if you want to.

And every team has up to 12 minor leaguers times 24 teams. it gets deep really, really fast. So, yeah, there's definitely a difference. Scott White, you are bringing it. By the way, Scott, I know you're not here, but you are the man. Your Michael Cain is legendary. I will say this.

For Dynasty purposes, I do a show, it's called the Palazzo podcast. That's my main fantasy baseball podcast. And we do full episodes, usually hour, hour and a half. But we do these half hour, power half hours I like to call them, with Phil Goyette,

who's a good friend of mine, who really knows prospects. I want to strongly recommend Phil because he feeds me information and I really learn a lot from him. When we do those prospect power half hours, he really enlightens me to deep dynasty plays because he loves himself from Dynasty.

So here's a guy I'll throw out here. His name's Kyle Stowers. It's S-T-O-W-E-R-S of Baltimore. He's the second rounder from 2019 who just kind of really took off. He had 73 walks this season and really had an elite OBP among several levels.

He got up to double and I believe AAA. So that's a guy that, I would look at for a deeper dynasty play that people probably aren't even paying attention to because he's not on the radar in front of your main stage. He's not on the marquee saying, hey, I'm Kyle Stowers. No, but he did hit 27 home runs as well. So a guy who could get 27 bombs with a 380 plus OBP on the Orioles who are, you know, they have a lot of opportunity right now in their team.

That's a fun name and an under-radar play that I'd be looking into. All right. Lefty bat here. And I'm looking at you mentioned he played across three levels, high age. AAA, even got 22 games in at, uh, did I say it's double A or whatever. No, I didn't mention the strikeout rate. That's why I'm laughing. He's got a problem with that. Yeah, no, 171 strikeouts and 124 games. So the strikeouts, yeah, they're an issue. But, hey, three true outcomes. I think that could play in Baltimore. So, uh, name two, pay attention to

there, Kyle Stowers of the Baltimore Orioles. Fill in the blank number three, let's get back to this. There is a blank percent chance. Byron Buxton plays at least 120 games in 2022, assuming that there is a full season. We'll see what happens. Obviously, we're in a lockout right now. But that's the number today, Mike, 120 games for Mondesie, for Buxton. There's a world of talent for both of these guys. Can they stay healthy?

Blank percent chance Buxton could get to 120 games. Is a snowball's chance in hell a percentage? It can be for this. Okay. Well, there it is then. That's what I select because Buxton is supremely talented. We don't need to relive the stats. We all know the story.

Oh, he's so good. But forever tantalizing. And it's fascinating that he signed this wild deal, this wild seven-year contract for $100 million, sort of, but with tons of incentives into it that could make it even bigger. He's betting on himself. I do like the fact that he's betting on himself.

It would like for me to buy into the fact that he's taking nutrition, fitness. Not that he's not already. already a great athlete as it is. He just, he just played so hard where he blew into centerfield walls and threw his body around like it was nothing, like he had no regard for it. So maybe if he changes some of that style and focuses on some of these things that athletes are doing today, you know, LeBron James is still playing at a super elite level and, you know, a super old age, 20 seasons into the NBA almost. So there are ways for athletes to really take advantage of the

modern technology and all of the knowledge we have today to take care of the body better. If he could do some of that and he applies that, then there's actually a chance. But look at all the things I just had to mention for there to be a possibility of this happening. It seems like it's a lot of variables. Yeah. So look, we know the deal with Byron Bucks and you just broke it down. He's played more than 100 games just once in his MLB career. That was 140 back in 2017. He hasn't played more than 87 games in any season since then. But man, he was so, so, so good this past season. 10.05 O. O.P. was second among hitters with at least 250 plate appearances. If you combine just as 2020 and 2021, it's only 100 games.

32 homers, 11 steals, 288 batting average. I mean, like Monashie, you don't even need a full season for this guy to really pay off. So what do you think about that possibility? His ADP 64.5, he's behind Tyler O'Neill, who we talked about. He's behind Monashy. He's going just behind Nick Cassiano. just ahead of Eloi Jimenez. What do you think about that price tag?

Well, it's definitely understandable. All you drafters out there, you set the market, you set the price, and we obsess over ADP. It gives us a gauge. It lets us know what everybody else is doing, but it doesn't really explain it all the time. And in fact, the more hardcore leagues you're in, the higher the prices for entry,

the more likely it is that your ADP is going to go flying out the window. I mean, I played the main event last year, which is a $1,700 entry fee. for the first time. And I finished third, by the way. That's not bad. So I got my money back. Woo!

Nice. Never have I been so grateful, Frank, to get my money back in a league than I was in that league. It felt like I won, you know? But in that type of situation, ADP changes. But in this situation, if you're asking me, I don't mind the price.

I still think I'd rather wait because there's always gems deeper on, later on at a deeper ADP. You know, Tyler O'Neill last year, his ADP was much less than it was last year. I mean, it was like 280 plus around there, 240, 250 beyond that. So I'm looking for somebody deep down in there again that I can find. All right. Let's move on to fill in the blank number four.

Our first starting pitcher that we're going to talk about here. If Shane McClanahan throws 160 plus innings, he'll finish as a top blank starting pitcher. Top 30, top 20. What are you thinking, Mike, when it comes to Shane McClanahan? If he pitches that many in, Frank, 160 innings. I had no doubt saying he's a top 20 SP. Easy. Easy. Well, look at what he just did this past season, right? 3.43 ERA. The whip a little bit high.

127. 141 strikeouts over 123 and a third innings pitch in his first season. Now, I'm thinking 123 he got to this year. Why can't he? Why can't he get to 160? You know, maybe 160's pushing it a little bit. I would say 150 is probably a fairer bet for Shane McClain. Obviously, he pitches for the Tampa Bay Rays. They need them. They need them to give innings. You know, they're not going to have Tyler Glass now for this season.

They're going to be depending on Shane Baz. But I think McClanahan, as we saw in the postseason, he's going to be their guy. They don't really have a choice. They need him to be that guy. Lots of swings and misses for him. Lots of hard contact as well. His 14.8% swinging strike rate

was tied for eighth among pitchers with at least 120 innings pitched this past season. His hard hit rate was also in the bottom six percentile. So does give up a lot of hard contact. You know what it reminds me a little bit of? Shane Bieber, when he first came up. Strikeouts were there, get some swings and misses. Obviously, the strikeouts have gotten even better

since he first came onto the scene. But he got hit hard. He would live in the zone too much, and that's something that I noticed. Shane McClanahan, his zone rate was a little bit above league average this past season. It was like two or three percentage points above. So I think he needs to get out of the zone a little bit.

His fastball was a little bit too hitable, but man, you're talking about the stuff. 97 mile per hour fastball. He's got an awesome slider curve. Got to work on the change up a little bit, but maybe a legit four-pitch arsenal here. I'm with you, man. I think if he gives us 150, I would say he's top 25 pretty easily.

If he gives us 160, yeah. He's a top 20 starting pitcher. What do you think about actually buying in on Shane McClanahan this upcoming season? His ADP, it's pretty high, actually. People are in on Shane McClanahan. I get it. 105.9 is the ADP for Shane McClan.

he's going other pitchers in his range. I only see a relief pitcher that is Giovanni Gallegos. Pablo Lopez is behind him. Tyler Malley. Carlos Roodon. Justin Verlander, who we'll talk about in just a lot of risk. A lot of risk with all those guys you just mentioned.

Yeah. So what do you think? Do you like Shane McHan the most of those risky pitchers? Hell yeah, dude Frank. I'm in on this. I dig it. I love him. I want to see more of him.

He's a race pitcher. They know what they're doing. Also, you mentioned, Glassto's out. Glassno, Trinos, McKay, all three of those guys, long-term surgery recoveries. They're out of the picture. You go to a roster resource on fan graphs and who doesn't these days. You definitely are going to see an opportunity for him to flourish all day. He could be the absolute stud ace in 2022 of a potential World Series team. So I'm actually not even that mad at that ADP. In fact, I'm kind of down with it. I thought it was going to be higher than that. So if I can get him a 105-ish,

I'm in, Frank, I'm all in. What would you want him as? Like your SP2, your SP3 on your staff? I would go, the way I built, you know, this is all roster construction. We would have a whole different show. We could talk about this, Frank. But I think I could go as high as seeing him as my two.

I really could, depending on how the roster was being constructed. I really would do that. Yeah, I think in a deeper league, like a 15-teamor, I can get away with him being my SP2. You know, I might back that up a little bit sooner with my SP3, you know, someone that I feel a little bit safer in terms of the ennings, but in a 12-teamer, yeah, I think you get them as your SP3 and like, whatever, the eighth, ninth round.

I think that's totally doable for Shane McClanahan. We're up to song number two. And this is, I believe this is one that, like, they even used to sing on this podcast. I mean, look, I've been here since March of last year. This podcast has been around way before that. I'm sure everyone who's listening or watching knows that by now.

But let's just cue it up. we'll talk it out. Song number two, what do we got? That one makes me laugh. So great. So, I mean, look, they're all great. It's just, it's so good. Completely random.

Do you watch the show what we do in the shadows? Oh my gosh. You know, that's always been on a list that I've never actually watched it, though. That's Tyco Watiti, isn't it? What? Tyco Watiti, did I say his name right?

I totally blow that. I don't know. Is that like the name of one of the actors or something? Oh, the director, yeah. He's the guy who's behind. And like, he's from New Zealand, I believe. And there's definitely a chance that, like, I watch shows. I don't know who directs him.

I don't know. I don't know the names of like. Oh, wow. Look at you, Frank. You're being exposed right here. No, no. He did direct the cool Thor, the third Thor. He was known for that.

He was also on an episode of the big show known as the Mandalorian playing the robot voice. But yeah, whatever. He's known. He's a dude. All right. Yeah, no, you're, you're spot on here. There's also a movie that they did too. So maybe he was.

He played some kind of role in that as well. Yeah, that's it. Yeah, yeah. So they have a movie. Originally was a movie. Now they came out with a show. It's on Hulu if anyone wants to watch it. I dressed up as one of the characters for Halloween.

And it's about vampires that live in Staten Island. It's really funny. It's hilarious. It's, you know, sitcom style. But there's one episode where one of the vampires goes into a disguise where he's a regular human bartender. And that's like the song that he plays while he's, like, dancing around the bar. It was just, I don't know.

It made me think of it. So if you haven't watched it yet, it really is amazing. So I would recommend. Anyway, Mike Soroka. Speaking of my Soroka, look, we don't know when we're going to see Mike Soroka again. I mean, the guy tore his Achilles for the second time,

and it's very unfortunate. He's still young. He's only 24 years old, so there's a chance that, you know, he still will contribute at some point in time. And I'm rooting for it, man. Like, I don't think we have any data of people tearing their Achilles twice.

I know that, I think, like, Adam Wainwright did it once. I know Ryan Howard did it back in the day. Obviously, Adam Wainwright's still going, but do you have any idea when we see Mike Soroka or if there's any chance he contributes anything in 2022? By the way, I was really pushing the limits of my vocal range

on that song in case you didn't notice that. It was getting tough, but I snuck it out. I pulled it off. It was pretty good. Yeah, no, thank you. I know where at your place is. And right now, Mike Soroka needs to know what his place is. And that's unfortunately on the bench, on the IL for a long time.

I think if we see him at all, it'll be in a relief role to start. I mean, maybe they feel like they will need him in a starting role and they can allow him to build back up in the minors once it gets back to that point. But yeah, it's going to be a while. Definitely not somebody you're drafting. Definitely somebody that you keep tabs on early on. You put on your watch list, right? You keep the watch list with Mike Soroka at the top of it,

but you don't expect much in 2022. Yeah, even if you're drafting now, if you're doing best ball, if you're doing draft and holds, Mike Soroka, and not someone that you should be looking at. What I'm reading here is maybe he'll be ready for live action around June or July. Live action doesn't mean that he'll be back on the team by then. I mean, that's... Very vague.

That's like him rehabbing and, you know, maybe he's throwing off of a mound by then. But I don't know how much he's going to contribute this year. Speaking of Keeper Leagues, which we mentioned earlier, this is a name to keep your eye on. If you have whatever, 10 IR spots or however many, and you have the ability to stash him and you can keep him at a low cost for the following season, I think that's something you might want to look into. So remember that when it comes to very late in your Keeper League drafts. I did want to ask you about a fellow Atlanta Brave starting pitchers.

Someone that will be in their rotation of starter, at least I think he will be. Wascarinaoa, who really just burst onto the scene last year. He's only 23 years old. He pitched in 18 games. He made 17 starts. I believe it was a broken hand because he punched a wall, which is just very foolish because he was having an awesome season. but overall 405 ERA

111-11 whip over a strikeout per inning the problem is he's kind of DeMelson Lament-ish where he only has the two pitches he has the fastball, he has a slider they're really good pitches

but again they're only two pitches what do you think about Wascari Noah? Wow, I can't believe you invoked Lamette wow that is harsh by the way you said fellow

it makes me feel like the Braves are like a research academy we're a fellow at the Atlanta Braves institution of pitching and yes they're all very elite They do pump out good starters. So there might be something to that. But Huasker, it's a great name, by the way.

I love that name. And I want to give a shout-out to Chris Marr baseball pods on Twitter. He gave me a pronunciation guide for 2021. And it really helped me out with this one in particular because I did not have it correctly the first time. But I got it right now. Huoscar E-Noa is a great pitcher. Very excited about his future. He throws fire.

He is electric. You know, he's angry at times. We all get angry. I know I've made mistakes of life for I haven't punched walls, but I've certainly, you know, been negative about my own self-esteem. So I get it. Hey, I mean, it's not exactly the same thing. But I know what it's like to be frustrated, Huasca. And in 2022, I'm actually really excited about him because this team comes back ready to rock.

And I believe he's going to be one of their key assets, barring any type of injury issue, which I don't expect it to be coming into the season. He should be healthy and ready to rock. I really think that his stock is on the rise. He's a guy who give you a K-9 over-9 as a starter. I dig that. I love that. The walks aren't too.

awful at all, so I'm excited for him in 2022. All right. I mentioned this draft a few times already that I'm doing, and I wound up with Enoa as my SP5 on a staff that also included Scherzerzer, Alcantara, Logan Gilbert, Aaron Savale, and then I brought back with Wascari Noah. So that is incredible. That's a fantastic staff. I'm not even kissing your butt here. That is, I would love to have that staff. Good call. Nice job. I appreciate that. Yeah, the ADP right now for ENO is 232. So So for those who play in 12-team leagues, he'll be a late-round flyer. If you're doing one of these deeper drafts, obviously, he might wind up being someone that you plug in. You plug and play based on the matchups here.

Fill in the blank number five, let's get back to the fill in the blanks. Over the past month, Justin Verlander's ADP is 110.7. So that's right around the 9-10 turn in a 12-team league. Now, if Verlander looks like himself in spring training, this ADP will jump. Blank spots. He's himself and everybody's drinking the Kool-Aid as we like to say, I think it jumps 80 spots, easy.

80 spots. So that puts him in the 30th range, right? So a third round pick. Yeah. Why wouldn't it, right? So I made this comp recently and I said, look, if Verlander looks like himself in the spring,

what's the difference between him and Chris Sale? Honestly. Exactly. Chris Sale made starts last year. I get it. He didn't really go deep into his starts. I believe he made eight or nine starts. Only one of them.

He went six innings or more. It was literally, I think, six endings on the dot. Last time we saw Verlender in a full season, he was amazing. 2019, he finished as the number one overall player in 5 by 5 roto. There were some stuff going on about like, he didn't sign his deal before the lockout.

That has all been squashed. He has officially signed a one year, $25 million deal to return to the Astros with a conditional option. for year two, where if he reaches 130 in 2022, then he will get that extra year for 2023. So that's the Astros showing a little bit of faith that, you know, he'll be able to get there. And obviously, Justin Verlander trusting himself and, you know, thinking that he'll be able to get over 130 innings as well. If you want Verlander, you should be drafting right now. Because, like,

this is the absolute lowest that he's going to be. I think, like, the closer and closer we get, You're right. Does he move up 80 spots? I don't know. 60, 70? You know, is he a fourth, fifth round pick? Yeah. A minimum.

Oh, yeah. I think it could get that high. So, yeah, if you're drafting right now, he's someone that you should be targeting. What would you want him as? Kind of like Shane McClanahan. He doesn't go that far after Mclanahan. Would you want him as your SP3, SP2?

Yeah, you know, this is a track record, a guy, Hall of Famer. His motion, his mechanics, they're so repeatable. They're so flawless. I mean, I'm a Detroiter. So I'm born to raise, Michiganer here growing up. Love my tigers. Go tigers. Like ex-cocho used to say, go tigers. And I am a fan of Justin Verlanders.

Even though he left, I was happy when he won a World Series. Even if they did cheat, I feel bad about that, but, you know, I'm still kind of happy for him. He's got a perfect life. He's got a wonderful wife, who's also from Michigan, Kate Upton, which is very cool. But in terms of fantasy value, because none of that has to do with his fantasy prospects. What I would do is probably have him be the two.

I don't know if I could trust him as by one just because he's 39, even though he's amazing. And he's still, if he's healthy, if he's as is, he's a top 15 pitcher for sure. But it's funny you mentioned Chris Sale, Frank, because when I was doing the research for this show, that was a name I wrote down it. I was surprised that his ADP was at 49. I thought it should be higher than that.

Chris Sale is a legit stud who's healthy now and he'll be ready to go this season. why wouldn't you want Chris Sale as your SP1? I actually have more faith in the fact that I would take Sale as a 1 as opposed to Verlander as a 1. Just because we've seen Sayle back, we know he can do it. He's further along in his program from the injury. So knowing that, that's really the difference maker for me to say, hey, I'm going with Sale as a number 1, but Verlander will be a nice 2.

I don't really have a reason anything to say against Chris Sale. I mean, the only thing that I noticed was that the swinging tricrate rate was down considerably. I think it's fair. I mean, it's his first time pitching coming off Tommy John's surgery. So, you know, it was down a couple of percentage points. The changeup for him was not very good as well. Is that something that, you know, he can work back into as he throws more innings? I think that's a possibility as well. Fastball velocity still looked all right. Slider looked very, very good. He got a lot of whiffs on that pitch again. And you look at the range that he's going around right now. His ADP is right around Robbie Ray. He's going, it looks like, eight spots ahead of Logan Webb.

nine spots ahead of Freddie Peralta. So, yes, there's upside with these pitchers, but there's also, I would say, considerable risk. You could say that about any starting pitcher, but specifically those names that I mentioned. Robbie Ray was awesome last year. Can you repeat it? Chris Hale, obviously a little bit older,

coming back from Tommy John surgery. Logan Webb was awesome last year. Can you repeat it? Freddie Peralta, huge innings jump. Is that going to affect him in 2022? We have question marks for all these guys. and I think, you know, if you're taking a shot on one of them, why not Chris Hale? He's got the track record. I agree. Also, I would say this, that Robbie Ray is probably one of the most fascinating and curious cases for 2022.

Will he be that guy again? Because we all need to see him do it again. At least I do. I can't draft him that high expecting that he's going to do it forever all of a sudden after he couldn't do it for most of his career. So that's a huge, huge if, in my opinion. Yeah, the one thing that I do. do like about Robbie Ray's offseason is landing in Seattle. I mean, it's just a great landing spot in terms of ballpark, division, the teams that he's going to go up against. Obviously, just getting out of Toronto

and he was really good in Toronto and getting out of the American League East, you know, that, that I think that represents a pretty safe floor right there for Robbie Ray. But in terms of can he harness the control that he showed this past year, definite question marks when it comes to

Robbie Ray, especially if you're drafting him as you're your SP1 in fantasy baseball. Let's take a quick break when we return. We'll have fill in the blank number six here on fantasy baseball today. All right, so let's get back into the fill in the blanks. A reliever one, a closer one. Last season, Jake McGee had 31 of 56 San Francisco Giants saves. That's 55%.

Over the Giants last three full seasons, they've averaged 44 saves as a team. Now let's say Camillo DeValle earns 55% of those 44 saves. I'm not saying all this math is going to line up, but just let's roll with it for now. 55% of 44 is 24 saves. If you earn that from Camilo Duval,

he'd finish as a top blank closer. Top 10, top 12, top 15. What do you think, Mike? I think that's top 15, I think. It's fair. Yeah, top 15. Yeah. Yeah. Look, when it comes to the Giants,

Gabe Kapler is still their manager, and he did a fantastic job. Look, I have someone who in the past have, I've been very, very frustrated with Gabe Kapler. I remember one year I drafted Hector Neris as my closer when Gabe Kapler was the manager of the Phillies. I think it was opening day. Some Joe Schmo came in and got the save, and I'm just like, where's Hector Nerris? This is very, very frustrating.

But I will say, for the most part, you know, Jake McGee was his guy last year. Or so I thought. I mean, he only had 55% of the saves. They just had so many saves as a team and so many opportunities that, you know, the 31 winds up looking really good for Jake McGee. So this isn't like, I guess it is kind of a play against Camillo Duval. I think the stuff is nasty.

When he returned in September, 13 innings, I know it's a small sample. He allowed seven hits, two walks, zero runs, 18 strikeouts with a near 17% swinging strike rate. He finished eight games in September and the postseason. Jake McGee finished. 5. So they were starting to hand that role over to Camillo DeVall. He's currently the 14th closer off the board in the NFBC at pick 155.6. What do you think about that price tag, Mike? Both the fact that he is the 14th closer and he's going just inside the top 160. The price is all right. I don't have a big issue with that, but I certainly am not excited to take him at that price. I can see why

the price would be that way because closers right now, we're in a really, really. pivotal spot here, a unique time, I think, because closer prices are getting even more expensive now, even compared to last year. They're jumping up. Josh Hader, all the elites, Hendricks are moving up even higher in ADP. Last year, they started to go 15 teamers, like a round pick, around four-ish. And now they're coming up to like the third round. Some people might even start taking them in the second round. I've seen it happen or I've heard about it happening. I haven't officially drafted yet, but the fellow drafters are telling me that is going down. if you're going to take a guy like Duval that you believe in,

then I could totally validate that ADP. But again, this is the argument with what we were just discussing with Justin Verlander. I trust a track record. I trust Chris Sales track record. Duval still has to show it to me a bit. And especially when it comes to closers, I never want to overpay. I never have. And I know this is an endless debate in the community about,

don't overpay for saves. You can save saves later. There's all this talk about it. People talk about it. They argue about it. I'm not here to debate it. I just know that generally waiting on closers who have not quite yet latched on to jobs usually works for me, usually.

Song number three, and this is the last song that we will play on the day when it comes to our friend here, Mike O'Reilly, and the songs that he put together, we're going to play this one and then we're going to talk about this player because I don't know that we've ever talked about this player on this podcast, and that needs to change. Fantastic work. Again, Edwin Rios. Edwin Rios, for those who don't know, is in the Dodgers organization, third baseman, first baseman.

He only played 25 games this past season. He batted 078, only one homer. He had shoulder surgery in May. So apparently he was playing through injury. He missed the rest of the season. He's expected to be ready for the start of 2022. Mike, what do you think? Can Edwin Rios finally get an opportunity to play here?

We're expecting the Universal DH with the Dodgers. A lot up in the air right now in terms of Max Muncie. What do you think? He's Edwin Rios and he has the strongest hands. I mean, the song says it. It's all you need to know. What else do you need to know about baseball? If you got strong hands, you're probably pretty good hitter.

Edwin Rios might be an example of the guy for me. And we all have these dudes in baseball. I know if you're listening to this, you're watching this. You know exactly what I'm talking about. There's a guy that you always hope will finally reach that promised land. He gets there, he did it. And finally he broke through 25 home runs or, you know, a guy who finally gave you 100 inning.

plus that you were hoping for as a pitcher. But a lot of times it doesn't happen, Frank. And that might be the case with Edwin Rios. He's a talented dude. He could crush the ball. You know, you take a look at some of his stat cast numbers. He booms the ball. He just absolutely tears into some baseballs.

There's tons of power there. But there's a lot of players on this team. I know the Dodgers have had some attrition. There's been some people that have left now. There's opportunities that have opened up. But have they open up for him? I am still suspect of that. A DH here, the Universal DH comes back into play,

would be a huge, huge boost for Edwin Rios to actually get some opportunity to hit 20 plus home runs. Yep, Edwin Rios back in 2019. Look, we were all following this season in the minors, and it was a great one. 270 batting average, 31 homers, 91 ribbies, 915 OPS, just an awesome season. That player for me, Willie Calhoun.

I know that he's earned opportunity after opportunity, but another one, you just look at the minors. everything that I saw said that this guy was going to be a star. Made contact, put the ball in the air, he hit the ball hard, he can hit for power. Oh, man, I'm still waiting. I'm hoping it can happen. I'm never giving up on my boy, Willie Calhoun. I'm rooting for you too, Frank.

Willie was a special player. He still got it. He's not over for Willie yet. It's not over yet. Let's see what he could do here. The Rangers are making some moves. So, you know, some lineup protection. Let's see where he bats in that lineup.

I'm interested to see for Willie Calhoun. I just want to ask you a few more follow-up questions here on the Dodgers. Max Muncie comes out like a month ago. He was on MLB Network and reveals that he did tear his UCL. So this is something that normally requires Tommy John's surgery. You know, we've seen hitters come back from that before. He didn't have surgery. He's doing the rest in rehab, hoping that, you know, that's, it's going to do exactly that.

It's going to rehab over the course of these next couple of months. It'll be closer to spring training. We'll see what happens. Is he just a complete avoid until we know more? and with that, can it finally happen for Gavin Lux? Gavin Lux is somebody that absolutely is talented, is exciting, it's fun. He has been the hot prospect, like the prospect, whoever is the big prospect right now that you would consider like an Adley Rooschman. Gavin Lux has been like an Adley Rooseman.

But then he falls off. He has a 2020 COVID year that's weird. Gavin Lux, I have no doubt, is talented enough. And if he's given the opportunity, he'll thrive. He will absolutely thrive. He'll be a great Dodger. All you LA fan boys and girls will love him. It'll be a great love affair in 2022 for Gavin Lux. But as far as Muncie, that love affair may be on pause. There could be a divorce that is being filed, unfortunately. I don't like to make light of that. But unfortunately, there are situations where players don't have what you need from that, man.

If you have a team like the Dodgers who have World Series aspirations, as always every year, nothing changes there. And you got a guy saying, eh, you know, I'm trying to just rehab this. I've actually torn my UCL, believe it or not. I mean, I'm just an average Joe, Frank. But I was playing pick up basketball at the University of Michigan in 2010. And I got a rebound. I grabbed it. And I turned to throw it down an outlet pass, right?

On the wing, and I threw it like a football. And this guy just stopped me from behind immediately. Like stop my emotion dead on. And I just tore it up. It was awful. I screamed to jump around like, ah, it was terrible. Terrible pain. It was awful.

I still don't know what that guy was thinking, by the way, because he just don't do that. It was a pickup game. You know, we're not professionals here. But anyways, Max Muncie, I hope that never happened to you. And I hope that's not the reason why your UCL is torn. But if you're trying to rehab it and you're expected to be a great hitter in 2020, Max, I've got big concerns about that, Frank. I am very, very dubious that Muncie will be someone that we could rely on in the first half.

Now, maybe there's a second half here. But it's also could get to the point where it doesn't work out in the first half. And then he decides, well, I guess I had to have surgery in the first place. and then gets a surgery, and then you waste a roster in a spot that you probably took on a pretty high end there. Max Muncie, he's the top 150 player in baseball, so you're not just throwing peanuts out there. I am very, very concerned about Muncie, and I would be avoiding him until further notice. Yeah, I'm right there with you, too. And if anything happens further with him, I think that would only entrench Gavin Lux in playing time there in the Dodgers lineup. And to the gentleman who

contributed to the tearing of Govier's UCL here. If you're listening, shame. Shame on you. Pick a basketball game and you're out here causing torn UCLs. How dare you? What was he thinking? Do you still play, Mike? Do you still play basketball? I would love to play. I haven't played in a minute, but I'm ready to go. I would love to get my lungs. It would probably take two weeks to get the lungs in capacity for that, but I'm ready to go. I'm not ready to give up my career just yet.

All right, all right. Well, I'm, I'm toying with you. idea of going out to Arizona for the AFL next year. So if you're there and I am there and we are together, we'll play a little pickup basketball. We'll make it happen. Let's do it. By the way, I rehabbed my UCL tear. I did not have surgery. I know you're all dying to know what I ended up doing. I rehabbed it and I have had a very healthy arm ever since. Oh, very nice. All right. Well, so there's some hope. There's some hope here for Max Muncie. Let's wrap up a few more fill in the blanks. Let's just say Alex Breggman's power output in both 2018 and 2019 was a product of the juice ball

because as of now it's kind of looking that way. I would project blank home runs for Alex Breggman in 2022. Let's assume that he's healthy too. Healthy season, Alex Breggman, 22. I'm going to project 27 home runs. 27 home runs. I think that that is...

I think that's pretty fair. I think, let's say he plays 100, 150 games. I never project anyone for a full season because it's just not realistic. If he plays, Steamer has him for 146.

And they have him for 27 home runs as well. I'm going to go a little bit lower. I'll say 25. I'll say 25 home runs for Alex Bregman. Remember 2018 and 2019? The guy was amazing. He hit 72 home runs during that stretch,

seventh most in the MLB. That came with a 16.3% home run to fly ball ratio. He hit just 18 home runs over 2020. and 2021. That's 133 games. So not a full season, but not far off either. A 10.3% home runs of fly ball ratio has never really had great stat cast numbers.

Do you need great stat cast numbers when you have the short porch and left field out there in Houston? Probably not. We just saw Jose Altuve hit 31 home runs. The other factor here is that Breggman just had wrist surgery. He underwent wrist surgery after the season, expected to be ready for spring training. but, you know, if that could be the reason why he just had a pretty down year in, in 2021. So I missed that, by the way. I admit that freely.

I totally missed that surgery. And I was going to actually blame the legs because he's had hamstring issues. A lot of leg problems the last two years. And I thought maybe that's sap some of his power. But if there's this wrist injury to boot, then that is another, that's another concern where I'm like, maybe I should downplay that 27. I did not look at your steamer projections, by the way, Steamer. That was totally up to top of my head, I swear.

The ADP's fair, though. It's 95 right now. So it's not egregious. It's not a huge asking price here for Alex Breggman. My takeaway from third base would be, you know, if you can wait 20, almost 30 more spots and, no, it's 20 spots and get Anthony Rendon, which is currently how it's shaping out. That's probably something that I would do instead.

So what do you think? I'm just going to ask you that. What do you think about this price tag here? Alex Brickman, eighth third basement off the board, pick 95. That price tag is just fine by me. I might actually be hitting that up a lot, but I get the feeling in some of the sharper leagues

that he'll probably go a little bit higher, but that'll also be dictated by my experience. We'll find out if I'm right about that because I think he's a really talented, number two overall pick when he was drafted. His bat speed is flawless. I don't really think, I know the cheating stuff, and all the trash cans and all that and the ball, blah, blah, blah, all that stuff.

I get it. And I'm not dismissing it entirely. But this guy still was a really, really talented dude. There was a reason he was the number two overall pick. And that bad speed, I've seen it, man. He swings through the zone. It's so quick. It's so smooth.

I just have a hard time believing that he'll never get back to, I mean, 40 home runs. Maybe those days are over. But I still think this is very much a dude who can hit 30 bombs in a season. And I was going to ask you, Rendon or Bragman, torn between these two because they're both injured. They're both third baseman. There's a lot of questions about them. I don't know what I'm going to do with Rendon

even more than Bregman. At least with Bregman, I feel like I have a little more certainty that is younger and that he's going to get right. Yeah, I like the one to two round discount that you could get on Rendon right now. That's more so in a 12 team league. They're basically one round apart and a 15 teamer. So I would take the discount on

Rendon. If you're just, if it's in a vacuum, if I'm on the clock, I need a third basement. I'm deciding between those two. I would take Breggman. I believe I'm going to have Breggman ranked ahead of Anthony Rendon. He's younger. I understand he's coming off the wrist surgery, but, you know, Rendon has dealt with a ton of injuries himself. He's obviously, he's like 32, 33 years old at this point. Angels lineup is pretty good. Astro's lineup is even better, even without Carlos Correa. So I'm going to lean Breggman there in a vacuum. Him versus Anthony Rendon. Fill in the blank number eight in our last one here on the podcast. Pretty basic. I want Luis Castillo as

my SP blank on my fantasy team in 2022. This is a challenge. This really is a challenge. In fact, I wish I hadn't brought it up. Frank did ask me. He's like, hey, what do you want to talk about in the show? And I said, Luis Casta you. And he's like, oh, I was going to talk about him too. And then I thought about, well, I don't want to talk about him because he's just going to confuse me. And I'm going to sound like a moron on my CBS debut. It's going to be a disaster for me. Right now this is a disaster. I'd feel like a fool. But if you're forcing me to answer the question, I will never back down. I'll never shy away. Always trying to keep her real. I guess I'd have to say minimum, probably SP3.

Minimum. I'm not going any higher than that. I mean, I'm not going one or two at all. There's no way I could trust him to be my one or two SP. Okay. His ADP right now is 75. So he's still going higher than McClan, higher than Justin Verlander, two pitchers that you said you wouldn't mind as your SP2. So I trust Verlender more than him. Is that weird? I don't. Maybe that's a bias here. I mean, I might need to check myself, Frank. I don't know. I don't know that that's weird, especially again, if we see Verlander healthy, like, why wouldn't you take that shot? Castillo, I think we know who he is at this point. If you just look at his career, ERA, and WIP, I think that that is a very fair starting point

when it comes to projecting Luis Castillo in 2022. Career ERA, 3.72, career whip, 1.22. that's who Luis Castillo is, give or take a few percentage spots in terms of the ERA, the whip. Maybe he's a little bit lower at times, maybe he's a little bit higher at times. We know he got off to the awful start last year, the first two months,

brutal for Luis Castillo. At some point, his agent actually tweeted me on Twitter because I said something bad about Luis Castillo, and he says, well, he can't pitch in cold weather. It's not my problem. That's your player, man. Are you serious? Tell him to figure it out.

I don't know. Like, yeah, it's cold in Cincinnati in April. The guy's got to figure it out. He's a professional ball player. But over his final 22 starts, Luis Castillo was very good. Gotta give credit worth due. 273 ERA,

120 whip. The whip is always going to be high. There's no doubt about it. I think I would be okay with him as my SP2. The problem is just a price tag still. I mean, he's like a fifth, sixth round pick. So,

like, the only way you're getting him as your SP3 is if you're really aggressive on pitching early. And the way that this year's player pool is shaping up, the elite hitters dry up really fast. So I think within the first six,

seven rounds of your draft, you probably want three, four, five hitters. So I don't think that going overboard on starting pitchers early is the way to do it this year, or at least from what I've seen so far, my experiences in the draft that I've done. So, all right, you're a little bit lower there

on Luis Castillo. SP2 for me, I don't know that it's actually going to happen. Let's just say you do draft them as your SP2. who is a good SP1 to pair him with? Is it like the only way you're doing it is if you get an ace in the first couple of rounds like a wheeler, a Woodruff, maybe a Max Scherzer,

is that the only way you trust him as your SP2? I think that's correct. Yeah, I mean, Garrett Cole and him, I could probably roll with that. Corbyn Burns, of course. Otherwise, yeah, I would be dubious and concerned. If we're going back to what we talked about earlier with like a sale or a Robbie Ray and then I'm having Castillo be my two.

I'd be really worried about that. I'd feel very uncomfortable about that situation. Yeah, no, there's just a lot of risk. You're right about that. I mean, imagine Robbie Ray and Castillo as your first two starting pitchers. Like, if things hit the, like, hit the fan, like, you could be looking at like a one, three, five whip combined from your first two starting pitchers, which is just busted.

An absolute disaster. So I still think he's talented, but, man, look. Luis Castillo, he's got some stuff that he's got to figure out. So you're getting them at a discount compared to years past, but this is probably where he should have been drafted all along. If he gets traded, are you more excited? I think it depends where, right? Okay, yeah, that's true.

Who are the teams that are going to be in on pitching? I mean, obviously I'm a homer. I got the Yankee stuff behind me. I think that they can use pitching. If Luis Castillo goes to Yankee Stadium, do we feel better about him there? No. I don't think so. I mean, the win potential, sure.

that'll help him, but pitching in the ALEs against really tough offenses, the Blue Jays, the Red Sox, even Tampa Bay is pesky. Like, no, thank you. I don't think that's really going to help Luis Castillo. So look, if you can land with like the Dodgers, sure. I mean, I think I- Seattle? Seattle's getting more aggressive, like you said.

Maybe that would be an interesting spot. Seattle, yeah, Seattle. Him and Robbie Ray on the same team. How about that? Yeah, let's just do it. Let's just make it happen. Let's just do it for one season so fantasy baseball can find out the truth. Yeah.

Oh, man. This is a lot of fun, Mike. I do appreciate you coming on here once again. Follow him over on Twitter. M-J-Go-V-A, that's M-J-G-O-V-I-E-R. You can listen to him on the Palazzo podcast and, of course, co-owner over at Roto Fanatic. Mike, we appreciate you coming on.

Anything else again that you'd like to promote before you leave? This has been fantastic, Frank. This flew by. You know, things are fun and you have a pretty cool job when the time just flies by like that. I love talking baseball. I love talking baseball. With you and how, Frank, we've developed a rapport.

And I'm excited to do this again down the road. Don't forget Palazzo podcast, 2Ls, 2Zs on Twitter. You can follow us. We're not quite ramping up for 2022 just yet. We got the lockout. We're kind of like, well, when do we get this going? But likely, as soon as the new year turns, we'll start going full bore. Last year we did like 30 guests in January and February.

It was a ridiculous pace. I'll probably not do that again. That was like very extreme. But something like that will be going down for sure. So check us out there. Of course, Roto Fanatic. Go to FanTRAx.com slash Roto Fanatic and sign up for a league. If you're going to sign up for a fan track's best ball like Frank said

or any other league at FanTracks. You might as well do it through fan tracks slash rotophonetic. It's going to be a good time. Noodle salad. I guarantee it. All right. Appreciate you coming off from Mike. I am Frank.

Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again on Thursday. Bye-bye.