Fantasy Baseball Today - First and Third Base Tiers! Olson vs. Alonso & Riley vs. Arenado (1/17 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 17, 2022

Vote to help FFT win best social media award- https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/8JGJJY8 It's tiers week! How are first and third base looking (2:05)? ... How to use tiered rankings for snake drafts vs. s...alary cap drafts (4:25). ... First base elite (8:50)! Vladimir Guerrero as a top-five pick or Freddie Freeman in round two? ... First Base near elite (12:55): why is there such a big gap between Matt Olson and Pete Alonso? ... First base next best things (20:07): why are people sleeping on Joey Votto? ... First base fallback options (24:28): we need to show Josh Bell more love! ... These are your corner infield options at first base (29:35). ... Third base elite tier (39:26): Jose Ramirez or Vlad? ... Third base near elite tier (42:30): Devers or Machado? Riley or Arenado at their respective costs? ... Third base next best things (48:25): what do we do with Adalberto Mondesi and Anthony Rendon? ... Email us at fantasybaseball@cbsi.com. 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:03 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive. Serafeas is magnificent. Got a fantasy question. Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. With fantasy. Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam.
Starting point is 00:00:27 It's the most wonderful time of the year. It's snowing outside here in New York City. But more importantly, it's Tears Week. Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Monday, January 17th. Martin Luther King Jr. Day. How are we doing, Chris? So you got a new tattoo this weekend. I did get a new tattoo. That is number four in the last 14 months. That's, it's quite addicting when you get one.
Starting point is 00:00:50 This one is, uh, from the Star Wars Rebels show. It's the fulcrum logo for Asokitano, because she is my favorite Star Wars character. And, um, you know, I just got to make sure that I leave it alone this time because I didn't let it heal last. time and I had to get that touched up this weekend. So that's a tip. If you get a tattoo, it is an open wound. Don't touch it. Chris, there is a non-zero chance that I get a tattoo next weekend because I'm going away on my basketball to New Orleans. And I don't know what's going to happen. I'm not really responsible for it happens. I guess that's up to the people that I'm with. But there's there's a chance. There's a chance that happens. I used to be
Starting point is 00:01:33 allergic to ink when I was a kid. So I don't, it seems like not a great idea. Maybe I need to get like a test or something first, but I don't know. How we doing, Scott? It might not work out for you. It might not. Yes. Are you, do you want to make that many lifelong commitments that close together, Frank? Yeah, I mean, why not, Scott?
Starting point is 00:01:52 You only live once. How you doing? Lots of people looking forward to the position tiers as they do every single year. And today we're going to focus on the corner infield. We've got first and third base. Kind of look like opposite ends of the spectrum so far this year in terms of just breaking down the positions, but what do you think, Scottie? Oh, third base is a disaster. I don't even know that you could put anything on the same
Starting point is 00:02:15 spectrum as it opposite end or otherwise. These are both, these, both of these positions, really, are kind of their own thing. First base is top light, I guess, especially, especially compared to like shortstop and second base. But yeah, very, like, first base is low. with players who can fill out your corner infield spot late in a draft, you know, or if you play in a deep league, like, there's plenty of first baseman to go around if competence is all you're looking for. If you're looking for studliness, not so much. Yeah, no, I think that's definitely fair. Third base, we've talked about it plenty. I'm sure other people have realized at this point as well that third base is pretty shallow. There's not a lot
Starting point is 00:03:00 of studly talent up at the top. I think you can say the same thing for first base, but first base is actually pretty deep. Chris, when we're talking about tiers overall, how to use them in a snake draft versus a salary cap draft, what would you say to that? It's just mostly it's all about knowing where the most value remains or the most, you know, viable players in the part of the draft that you're at. So if you, you know, if you're picking sixth and it's the seventh round and you've got, you know, three really good third baseman left and only one good second baseman left on your list. You take the second baseman now
Starting point is 00:03:40 because the third baseman, it's not guaranteed that they'll be there, but they have a better chance of being there. So it's mostly just about trying to optimize the way that you approach the draft at each point in the draft. That is basically the biggest way to do it. Scott, I think when discussing tiers,
Starting point is 00:03:58 I often think of them about, think about them as players who are, projected for similar overall value, not necessarily that they're going to do the same things, but just overall output maybe by the end of the season. And I think specifically for salary caps slash auction drafts, you might want to jump in on a position tier earlier rather than later because as that tier starts to dwindle down,
Starting point is 00:04:21 you're going to see the last player in that tier is more than likely going to go for the rest of the players in that tier because people realize they know like, okay, the talent is drying up. Simple supply and demand. that's I mean what you often see is the first player in a tier will sometimes go for way less than he should and then people will be like oh no now we have to end and so that'll happen but sometimes that first player goes for way too much and so it's always a balancing act but I think you actually asked Scott maybe that's why people confuse you know sometimes people confuse the things we're saying no it's okay Yeah, no, you kind of have to approach it reverse. You kind of have to use the tiers almost the opposite way in a salary cap league where you're auctioning off players.
Starting point is 00:05:14 Just wanted to get that in there in case people didn't know what a salary cap league was. You almost have to do a reverse approach tiers, written in a reversed in that, then in a snake draft. Where snake draft, you're trying to aim to get the last player in a tier, you know, last second to last, you know, when it's close to come. completion and then a salary cap draft you might want to jump in on the bidding in one of the earlier players in a tier. But, you know, it's tempting not to, right? If you got a tier of six players and it's, you know, the bidding, you feel like it's getting kind of high on that first guy, you're like, oh, there's five others I can turn to. But then the same thing happens with the second guy and the third guy and the fourth guy. And pretty soon, it's like, oh, geez, that last guy goes in that ends up going for $10 more than you were expecting him to go for because everybody knows.
Starting point is 00:06:07 Everybody knows. So, yeah, they're harder to use in that format. Everything's harder in that format, right? Yeah, because every draft's going to be different. And obviously that's true of all stake drafts. But what you'll often see, too, is the last guy in a tier will just last for the next 50 nominations. nobody will put them up. And then all of a sudden
Starting point is 00:06:28 you end up with a big steal on that player if nobody has money left. So that's another thing that happens. And so that's why it's hard to give specific advice about salary cap slash auction drafts. Yeah, I think that's a good point, Chris.
Starting point is 00:06:42 I mean, I think people know that that's the last player in the tier and maybe that's like they don't want to throw that player out because they know he's going to go for more money than everyone else from that tier. I think as a general rule, in a snake draft, I probably want to wait
Starting point is 00:06:55 until the last player of a tier or second to last player and make sure I get that player but in a salary cap draft maybe I want to jump in in the middle maybe not the first player but second third player in a tier before
Starting point is 00:07:07 you know that starts to dwindle down a little bit let's jump into first base overall and we talked a little bit about the positions overall but let's do a little word association so Chris I'll start with you when I say first base what is the first word or thought
Starting point is 00:07:22 that comes to your mind for that position power I mean, that's that's the big thing. And that's always been true of first base. But, you know, there are the elite players, your Freddie Freeman, your Vladimir Gros, maybe Matt Olson, if, you know, he can sustain a lot of the games that he made last season. But you'll just, you'll never have trouble finding home runs and RBI specifically at first base. And then that's slightly less true of third base, but it's still pretty true. And so, you know, you can either wait on first base and get, you know, one of the cheaper power and RBI guys, or you can reach up for the true four category guys. They're really only four category studs at first base. And so that was one word. Scott, first base, we're association.
Starting point is 00:08:12 Go. Yeah, I was going to say mashers. So basically the same thing as Chris. You know, you get a lot of high OPP guys at first base too in formats where that matters, which, you know, it kind of matters in every format where runs are scored, right? So it's, you know, slow-footed, powerful, sometimes patient guys, and not a lot of diversity within the position. You know, you might find some guys who lean more toward batting average than home runs, but not that many. All right, so let's start with the elite tier at first base, and that includes two players, Vladimir Guerrero, who has an
Starting point is 00:08:55 ADP of 4.7. By the way, this ADP comes via Fantasy Pros. Their ADP for 2022 is up and running. So if you want to follow along, that would be Fantasypros.com slash MLB slash ADP. And that includes right now RT Sports, the NFBC and FanTracks. So an average of those three websites all combined right now. Vladimir Guerrero, an ADP of 4.7. Freddie Freeman, an ADP of 17.7. So typically Vlad is top half of the first round. and Freddie Freeman maybe sneaks in late first, but probably more so an early second round pick than anything else. And I don't want to focus too much on breaking down the players per se because we'll have our position previews where we'll focus more on that. Probably more so of a strategy discussion here. But Scott, you make these tiers.
Starting point is 00:09:45 What do you think about this first tier here, Vladimir Guerrero, and then your boy, Freddie Freeman, who we still don't know where he's going to play going in the early second round? Yeah, we still don't know where he's going. going to play. I don't think it makes that big of a difference with him. I mean, Yankee Stadium. If he signed with the Yankees, that would be pretty dope.
Starting point is 00:10:06 It would be great. He hits a lot of balls to opposite field, a lot of home runs the opposite field. But, you know, he's going to put up huge numbers no matter where he lands. He's not going to go anywhere that moves him ahead of Vladimir Guerrero, and I don't think he's going to go anywhere that drops him a tier behind Vladimir Guerrero either. So, yeah, this was one of the easiest tiers, really, to put together because, I mean, Vladimir Guerrero is, you know, if you're not factoring in speed, he's arguably the best hitter, the best hitter in fantasy now. And then Freddie Freeman, of course, has been who he's been for close to a decade probably, right? And very little slippage during that time. Vladimir Guerrero hit 311, 48 homers, 111 RBI,
Starting point is 00:10:56 123 run scored. He was the number one overall player in Roto last season. He averaged four fantasy points per game, which was by far the most at the first base position. And finishing as the number one overall player in Roto with just four steals.
Starting point is 00:11:09 I thought that was pretty interesting for Vlad. That is interesting, yeah. Yeah, he just provided so many counting stats. That's what it comes down to. I mean, over 230 runs plus RBI, that is just, that is outstanding. That offense just created so much volume and he missed just one game. And yeah, that's huge.
Starting point is 00:11:27 He was more mortal in the second half, you know, 905 OPS, but like you're splitting hairs there. He's awesome. Yeah. Chris, would you rather have a top half of, would you rather use a top half of the first round pick on Vlad? Or would you rather have a back half pick and then take Freddie Freeman in the second round? Yeah, like I think if you could end up with Trey Turner and Freddie Furne, Freeman, that would be better than Vladimir Guerrera and whoever else you might get in the second half of the first round. But that's because I think Freddie Freeman is just, you know, kind of an
Starting point is 00:12:00 awesome value in the second, you know, really around the midway point of the first second round in the 12 team league. Like that just seems like a really, really advantageous price. And I think it's partially because, you know, he only hit 31 home runs last season. He only drove in 83 runs. I don't think that's going to be an issue. Like, he is. is basically a perfect hitter. He does everything incredibly well. There's really not anything he does as a hitter.
Starting point is 00:12:28 And he'll occasionally steal bases. He's got eight to ten stolen base upside. He's done it two of the last four years and obviously one of those years was a partial season. By the way, 83 RBI, you mentioned he also scored 120 runs.
Starting point is 00:12:45 He led the NL and runs. That's second year in a row that he's led the NL and runs scored. Oh yeah, that's true, isn't it? Yeah. He led the majors and run scored last year in 2020. The near elite tier. Let's move on to this next one. Matt Olson with an ADP of 33.7. Paul Goldschmidt, ADP 48.7. Pete Alonzo at 56.3. And then Jose Abraeu at 68.7. And Scott, you point out in your article that Jose Abraeu is one tier lower in a points league. Something we've been saying since the season ended, Scott, was Matt Olson and Pete Alonzo have done the old switcheroo.
Starting point is 00:13:20 So last year, I didn't want Pete Alonzo where he was going because I don't really like paying for, you know, home runs and RBI in a, in a Roto league. You know, if I'm using an earlier pick on a hitter, I want batting average or steals involved somehow. And I think that's kind of the case now for Matt Olson. And you're getting Pete Alonzo, who's a very similar player two rounds later. And that's the same thing we were saying last year where Alonzo was going earlier and Matt Olson was going later. So now that more ADP is starting to come together, it's very clear. to me that Pete Alonzo was just a much better value. Well, yeah, and I mean, that's what the tiers are, that that's partly what they demonstrate,
Starting point is 00:13:58 right, is you're going to get basically the same outcome from all four of these players. Alonzo and Olson maybe being the most, the two that are the closest to mirror images of each other. It's understandable why people, myself included, would have a small preference for Olson. I mean, he cut a strikeout rate down to 16.8%, which is, you know, he went from being a strikeout prone player to basically a contact guy who hits home runs with that kind of strikeout rate. But also Alonzo, to a lesser degree, kind of moved in that direction more himself,
Starting point is 00:14:37 19.9% strikeout rate for him. It didn't seem to improve his stat line to the same extent it did Olsons, but I don't think you can predict things that finally to say that, okay, Olson is just a better player now and I expect better numbers from him, you know? Yeah. And it doesn't seem like Alonzo had to sacrifice power for those contact improvements. No.
Starting point is 00:15:04 It's not like he had a higher barrel rate in 2021 than he did in 2019. His average X velocity was higher. His max X Velo has been right at 118.3, three straight seasons. So I think we could see a delayed breakout from Alonzo. And, you know, his expected Wobo was 3.76. It was 3.73 in his rookie season. And that was in a league where the average Wobo was 320 compared to 314 last season. So, you know, in that context, he was arguably better than his really, really good rookie season.
Starting point is 00:15:39 And don't get me wrong, I still like Matt Olson. And in a vacuum, I'd rather have Matt Olson over Pete Alonzo if they were going. going at the same ADP, that's just not the case this year. As great as Matt Olson was in 2021, he did slow down a little bit in the second half. Seems like maybe due to some bad bad at luck, the strikeout rate was still really strong in that second half for Matt Olson. But he hit 257 with an 878 OPS over the final three months. Pete Alonzo went on the IL in the middle of May with a sprained right hand.
Starting point is 00:16:07 He returned on May 31st from that point on. He hit 270, 31 homers in 893 OPS over 115. games. That is a 40 homer pace over the course of 150 games. So nearly a full season, I usually don't project 162 games because it's not realistic. A lot of players don't do that at this point. But Pete Alonzo was actually better over the final three or four months than Madelson was. So yeah, give me the discount there on Pete Alonzo. Can we throw Pete Alonzo's 2021 season in everyone's faces when they mentioned the home run derby curse? Because he got a lot better after the home run Derby. But Chris, show me, Otani.
Starting point is 00:16:47 I think people need to believe in certain people need to believe in curses like that. So I don't no matter how much evidence you offer to counter it, I just don't think it matters to them. I didn't want to say for Matt Olson, though, like, what if he goes to the Yankees? Oh, geez. Right. Oh, what if he gets no, actually, weren't they talking? No, they were talking about playing him at a different position, right? Wasn't that one of the rumors? No, no, that That was Matt Chapman.
Starting point is 00:17:14 Oh, Matt Chapman. Okay. Yeah. It's a good point that you bring up, Scott, because it seems almost certain that Matt Olson is going to wind up somewhere else because there's all this talk about how the Oakland A's are going to go into a full rebuild and they want to get as much value out of their, you know, viable MLB players as they possibly can. So whether he winds up with the Yankees, which seems like a real possibility,
Starting point is 00:17:35 if Freddie Freeman signs somewhere else, there was talk that the Braves could trade for Matt Olson. I wouldn't rule out the Los Angeles Dodgers because they've been linked to. Freddie Freeman as well. So yeah, all three of those teams, I think, would be pretty damn good for Matt Olson regardless. They're by far better ballparks than where he currently plays. Yeah, they would all be improvements. And I think that's one of the things with Matt Olson is if he stays in Oakland,
Starting point is 00:17:56 I don't think you can just expect a, you know, higher batting average than, you know, even the 271, like, that might be close to what the highest you could expect from him just because of the park he hits, the home run, the fly ball tendencies, all of that stuff. it's going to make him a low Babbitt player. He has a 275 Babbat for his career. Scott, quick thoughts on Paul Goldschmidt and Jose Abrae. Abraeu is going 20 picks later at pick 68.7 in ADP right now. They're both a little bit older, a resurgence season for Paul Goldschmidt last year.
Starting point is 00:18:29 Yeah, and I don't know to what degree we buy it. I have quite a bit of skepticism myself, but Paul Goldschmidt could be one of the few first baseman who does make a reasonable contribution. in the stolen base category. He was 12 for 12 last year. And of course, back in his prime, he had a three-year stretch
Starting point is 00:18:49 with the Diamondbacks where he averaged more than 20 steals the season, so it didn't come out of nowhere for him. It's not especially fast, but 12 for 12. I mean, why do you stop a guy from running when he has that kind of success rate, right? So, you know, mostly I'm buying him for his bat,
Starting point is 00:19:06 and, you know, he showed signs of decline prior to last year, the two years prior to that, but, I mean, you see what the numbers where they are. It looked like Prime Goldschmidt again. So I don't know. I think he belongs in this tier. He's not one I'm going to be especially enthusiastic about drafting, but if he ends up being the last guy left, then that's that's what the tiers are there to,
Starting point is 00:19:37 you know, sometimes the tears make the decision for you. And if you want to read more about Jose Abraeu, you can head on over to cbsports.com slash fantasy slash baseball, and he is part of Chris's bus 1.0, which I read the other day. And I feel like he's been on that list for, I don't know, three or four straight years, I would say. But yes, if you want to read more about Jose Abraeu, then you can find out there. If not, then wait till our first base preview where we will break down all of these players more in depth on that podcast. The next best things tier, tier. and this is where we see a big drop in price,
Starting point is 00:20:11 and this is what tiering the players together is all about. So I mentioned Jose I Brue's ADP in that last group, 68.7. This next group includes Joey Votto, C.J. Cron and Reese Hoskins. They're all going outside the top 135 picks. So think about that. It's like a 70-75 pick difference here, where Votto's ADP is 154, Cron, 137.3, and Reese Hoskins down at 149.
Starting point is 00:20:37 and Chris, I think if you wait at first base, these guys aren't, I don't think that they're going to be difference makers. I guess Joey Votto still can because he showed it last year. Obviously, he's getting up there in age. But I would feel okay.
Starting point is 00:20:51 That's the way I would put it okay if I wound up with one of these guys as my starting first baseman. Yeah, I mean, this is where you start to see the all or nothing kind of power guys. So it's really, there's not that many guys who provide four category potential. You know, even Jose Ibrahimiou, he's really only like a plus in two categories at this point in his career probably, unless he, you know, has another 2020 season.
Starting point is 00:21:15 But Votto is the one in this group that I think could be potentially a four category contributor. I know his average wasn't great last season. But, you know, the way he bounced back as a power hitter does make me think that there's still, you know, the potential for like a, actually not that much different from what Paul Goldschmidt did last season. I could see him hitting 290 with 35 plus homers. Yeah, and you mentioned bounce back in the power department. Chris, he actually did something he never did before. 297 isolated power was a career high in his age 37 season. We're talking about Joey Vado, who is likely, in my opinion, going to be a future
Starting point is 00:21:54 Hall of Famer, and he just did that again at age 37. So 51st overall player in Roto, 3.4 fantasy points per game that was tied for fourth at the position with Paul Gulchmidt. he hit 36 homers 19 players hit 35 or more he did it in the fewest amount of games 129 so he sold out for power but he's kind of just like one of those advanced hitters where he found a way to make it work and I'm not really going to doubt it as long as he could stay healthy that I think that he called it I mean that's that's what's um I think helps me to buy it more is he deliberately changed his approach to get more power and he
Starting point is 00:22:31 predicted what the results would be and and and that's what they were and actually it started late in in uh in 2020 and I know yeah kind of the whole season was late but he was batting 204 with three home runs um what was that 32 games into it and then his final 28 games he hit eight home runs so you know that that's when he first changed up the approach and that's when we first saw this new power emerge and we were all kind of high on him last i know chris and i were anyway were you were you on board with him too frank as i i don't i don't remember being higher on him than the consensus so i'm i'm just going to rule myself out of being included there that's fine um even when he got off to a slow start we liked a lot
Starting point is 00:23:24 of the underlying changes he made so uh what the underlying number showed so yeah i'm It's kind of surprising that he's still going as late as he is. Yeah. I was kind of tempted to tier him with that higher group with the Olsons and Alonzo's and Goldschmidt. And, you know, part of the reason I have to split the baby with Jose Abraeu and put him a tier lower in points leagues is because I genuinely prefer Votto in points leagues to Abraeu. So I can't tier a player higher that I don't prefer in that format, you know? Yeah, no, I get it.
Starting point is 00:24:01 think you just kind of have to bake in some risk just because of the age and the fact that, you know, he's missed time. He was on the I.L. last year. And it seems like he's usually good for at least one IL stint per season, but it's still a really good ballpark to hit. And we'll see what happens with the lineup. I think, you know, Nick Cassiano's more than likely is going to be off that team, which, you know, will overall affect his RBI and run outputs in 2020. C.J. Kron and Reese Hoskins have the other names in this tier. But I want to move on to the next one, the fallback options, which includes Max Muncie, Jake Cronoworth, Ryan Mountcastle, Ty France, Josh Bell, and Jared Walsh. Scottie, I got a bone to pick with you, and I wanted to ask,
Starting point is 00:24:40 why? Why couldn't Josh Bell be part of the previous tier? Because I feel like he's a very similar player to someone like C.J. Crone, you know, a 270 plus hitter, 26 to 30 home runs, something like that. I feel like those are all kind of similar players. So why not Josh Bell in the previous year. Yeah, I think you could make that case. I think C.J. Cron has the potential for an even better stat line in Colorado than the one he had last year.
Starting point is 00:25:12 So that's part of it. Part of it is Josh Bell. He's played enough games with my heart that I don't entrust him entirely. I don't trust the nationals to use him right entirely. But yeah, I think if you're an optimist, you can put Josh Bell in that higher tier. I'd rather treat him as more like a sleeper, I guess. Where is his ADP relative to these other guys?
Starting point is 00:25:43 Is it in the same range as like Cron and Hoskins? He's above, he's higher than Joey Votto, isn't he? Yeah, so Josh Bell is going at 144, just behind C.J. Cron, just ahead of Reese Hoskins. 10 spots ahead of Joey Votto. So really in that same exact price range. Okay. I may need to look at that. I made to think about that some more.
Starting point is 00:26:07 I mean, I'm kind of given my defense for why I haven't ranked where. I rank him because, you know, I put together my rankings before there was any ADP. And then I have to design the tiers around my rankings, obviously. And maybe I just, maybe just my initial ranking was too low. It feels like a college football kind of thing, right? one thing that you can say in Josh Bell's credit is he is the only first baseman in either of the first well I guess you don't get a first baseman who's multi-eligible
Starting point is 00:26:42 until the fourth tier and then it's him Muncie all these guys really except for Walsh right well he's not multi-eligible on CBS oh he played 10 games in the outfit last year right yeah yeah we need 20 over on CBS yeah so yeah but he could get there. Yeah. He, I mean, I don't, I think he was just hitting so well towards the second half of the season that they were trying to find a way to get his bat in the lineup any way they could. And with the universal DH coming, I think, you know, if they're going to do that, they're probably just going to play him at DH or first base. So I would, uh, I would put some doubt
Starting point is 00:27:14 on the outfield. But I think if you play in Yahoo, he will have that eligibility. So I guess keep that in mind. It was a really slow start for Josh Bell last year from May 1st on. However, 279 batting average, 25 homers, an 865 OPS over the final 129 games. Max Muncie we spoke about recently. He is in this tier, obviously dealing with that UCL injury. We still kind of need to wait to get more information there. Jake Kronoworth will have first, second, and shortstop
Starting point is 00:27:43 eligibility on CBS. I think more likely is you'll use him as a middle infielder. That's just kind of my early takeaway. We talked a lot about Baltimore recently, moving the left field wall back and it was a big topic of conversation on Twitter this weekend. And Ryan Malkasel looks like, you know, we probably should decrease him in value because of that. The one thing we haven't really talked about here, Chris, is Jared Walsh, who I think the Jared Walsh optimist will also argue that he might need to be in that previous year, based on what he just did last year, 277, 29 homers, 98 RBI.
Starting point is 00:28:19 He was really good. and that was without Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon in the lineup for a lot of the season. I don't think he needs to be in a tier above. I think if anything, he's probably one of the easier fades in this range just because he was great last season, but he really overperformed his expected stats. And, you know, that's not gospel. That doesn't necessarily mean he will continue to under overperform. It doesn't mean that he's going to drop.
Starting point is 00:28:45 But, you know, 357 Wobah versus a 325X Wobah. a pretty significant difference. That's going to be one of the bigger ones among everyday players. And so I just, I think we probably got a, you know, really, really good at case scenario, not maybe not the best case scenario for Jerry Walsh last season. And I think regression is almost certain with him. All right. Yeah, he does hit a lot of ground balls and he struggles mightily against lefties as well. Go ahead, Scott. Yeah, I wanted to mention I actually have Walsh a tier lower in points leagues. And Ryan Mountcastle, too. Those are the two from this tier who would tier lower in a points league. So, yeah, they might be the two I want least from this tier. And I'm happy to be
Starting point is 00:29:32 apart from the consensus on that. All right. The next one we have here is the last resort. I think at this point, we're talking more about corner infielders and maybe utility bats in a points league or something at this point. But that includes Brandon Belt, Luke Voigt, Frank. Yankee two hits, Frank Schwendell, Yuley Guriel, Alex Kirloff, Tyler Stevenson, who I think, obviously many people will use him as a catcher. Anthony Rizzo, Tiji LeMayhew, who can be used at second base. And then Trey Mancini. Scott, who has the highest upside of this group, the last resorts tier? I mean, it's got to be void.
Starting point is 00:30:07 He let the majors in home runs in 2020. And has, since joining the Yankees, I believe I actually calculated this for my sleepers. 1.0 article that came out late last week. I believe his OPS since joining the Yankees is over 900. And, you know, there are a couple years last year included where injuries kind of derailed him. But when he hasn't been dealing with injuries, he's been money. And if the Yankees are willing to back him completely, he could move up two tiers here. I don't see why I want to tear him with the C.J. Crohn's and Reese Hoskins of the world.
Starting point is 00:30:49 The reason he's this low is because they haven't done that. And a lot of people assume they're going to go out and get a Matt Olson or Freddie Freeman or whatever, whoever else to upgrade first base. He was one of the easiest buys for me in 2020 because it was so obvious that the hernia injury that he had in 2019, that was when he stopped hitting. He had like a 900 OPS until that point and was on page. for over 100 RBI. And then he was an easy fade last season because he was probably not going to hit the 52 or 55 homers
Starting point is 00:31:23 that he was on pace for. And now he's a pretty obvious buy as long as it looks like he's going to play every day. If they do sign someone, hopefully he gets traded because he's someone I'm going to have a lot of in the later rounds. Yeah, I would say it's over 50% chance
Starting point is 00:31:39 that the Yankees bring a first baseman in. So I don't know if that means that he's leaving in that trade or if they're trading Luke Void away for something else. But I think the writing is kind of on the wall because they traded for Rizzo last year. And they were okay really down the stretch, just benching Luke Void. He really didn't get a lot of playing time in that latter part of the season. The deep leaguers here, we have Jonathan Scope, Miguel Sino, Jesus Aguilar,
Starting point is 00:32:05 Bobby Dalbeck, and Nate Lowe. It's a pretty underwhelming group here. Nate Lowe, I still have some hope for here, Chris, because, the Texas Rangers lineup got a lot better. Obviously, they bring in Semy and they bring in Corey Seeger. I think he was solid last year. He obviously was not spectacular. If he can lower that ground ball rate just a little bit,
Starting point is 00:32:25 I think we can get, you know, mid-20s home runs with some pretty good counting stats. So anyone catch your eye here, the deep leaguers tier. I mean, I think all of these guys, like maybe Miguel Snow has one of those seasons where he puts up a 360 Babbup and can be useful. But for the most part now, I think this, like Nate Lowe is probably the most interesting one. Hazer Sagalar, I think, is a...
Starting point is 00:32:50 I mean, I don't think you need to say fade because nobody's really on him, but his RBI numbers last season seemed really, really unlikely to repeat. I do feel like all these players are usable, though, right? I mean, Jonathan Scope, who's also eligible at second basement, he was my second baseman for the majority of the year
Starting point is 00:33:11 in the podcast league. Last year, the 12-team points league, where I had the highest scoring team, even though I didn't make the playoffs. But I had scope as my starting second basement for most of the year. And, you know, he's usually good for 20-plus homers. Bobby Dalbeck, I believe he hit 25 home runs last year. So this is, between this tier and the previous two,
Starting point is 00:33:33 you know, that last year you mentioned was very long with Ulauguriel and, and Tramancini, Frank Schwendell. This is really where you see the depth that first base stand out, because you could make do with these guys as your first baseman, you know, if they're healthy and playing regularly. And there's a lot to choose from. Nate Lowe, also known as Nathaniel Lowe, I actually think that's what he goes by now. He had eight steals last year, too.
Starting point is 00:33:59 He was eight for eight, did not have a single caught stealing. So I wouldn't expect that type of efficiency again. But Texas does like to run. So you might get some odd ball out of position steals here from Nate Lowe. Maybe it's five to seven, something like that by the time the season is over. There's lots of names here. That includes Seth Beer, Kesson Hira, Carlos Santana, Eric Hosmer,
Starting point is 00:34:20 Spencer Torkelson, Tristan Kossis, Lamont Wade, Routi Tellez, Lewin-Diaz, Bobby Bradley, Nick Prado, Christian Walker, and Vinnie Pasquantino. There are, again, a lot of names in that tier, so don't worry if you missed out on it. That's a long tier at every position.
Starting point is 00:34:36 I just throw in a bunch of names that people might care about at the end there. Yeah. Scott, just say a name. Who is the one that you are most intrigued by in this tier? Just give me a name. I mean, there's an obvious one, right? Is there?
Starting point is 00:34:49 I was going to say Seth Beer. I was going to say Seth Beer as well, but I'm going to predict that the one you are talking about is Eric Cosmer, Chris? Nope. Who is it? Chastinjura. No. No.
Starting point is 00:35:02 All right, so I guess it's not obvious at all. Who is it, Chris? Spencer Torkelson. Yeah. I guess it just comes down to... One of the top prospects in baseball just put up a 935 OPS in the minors as a 21-year-old got up to AAA and produced at every level. Yeah, I think it's just a question of when he gets called up, right?
Starting point is 00:35:21 Yeah, that's the same thing that could be said for, I mean, there's a few prospects in this year. Tristan Casas with the Boston Red Sox, a lot of people excited about him. Nick Prado, same thing with the Royals. He made it to AAA last year, so could see him up early in the season. And I think that would probably just completely sink Carlos Santana's value at that point.
Starting point is 00:35:40 And then he passed Quintino. He's another prospect in the Royals system, but he hasn't played at AAA yet. So I think that's maybe a little bit further down the road into the season. But yeah, I think all names that you need to just remember, put them on your scout team, see what happens. The steamer projections for Spencer Torkelson, by the way, 130 games projected, 259 batting average, 29 home runs, 77 RBI.
Starting point is 00:36:03 It seems very optimistic, but if we get that many games, that's within the range of outcomes for Torkelson. Yes, he is that good of a player. Before we hit the break, I want to promote a few things. Our friends over at Fantasy Football Today, that includes Chris, by the way, are up for the best social media award. It'll take you 10 seconds to vote for Fantasy Football today. Just hit the link that is included in the podcast and YouTube description. If FFT wins the award, the best social media award, will give away some free, free fantasy baseball today hoodies.
Starting point is 00:36:37 So vote now and win an FBT hoodie. Again, the link is in the podcast in the YouTube description. help out our friends, Chris, Adam, Jamie, Dave, and everyone else who contributes on that podcast so that they can take home the best social media award. The podcast is scheduled for this week, by the way, I should have mentioned this earlier. Monday, Wednesday, Thursday. The past, we've been juggling things around. We are off on Monday, so we're not going to podcast Monday night, so we will be back Tuesday night. So Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday are the mornings that you will have a podcast in your feed. And last but not least, the CBS Fantasy
Starting point is 00:37:11 Baseball product launch is Tomorrow, January 17th, rankings, salary cap values, sleepers 1.0 from Scott, that's actually out already. Breakouts 1.0 for me, bus 1.0 from Chris, all going to be live on the site. So you're getting ready, you're diving in, you want to see the rankings, go check that out on Tuesday. Tears 1.0. That's live too.
Starting point is 00:37:32 All the tiers are live, and that's why this will accompany those articles so you can follow along and obviously with everything that we are talking about here, regarding those tiers. Let's take a quick break, and when we return, we'll hit the third base position. It's fun, kind of, not really.
Starting point is 00:37:49 We'll talk about it here on fantasy baseball today. All right, so let's jump into third base tiers, and just like we did for first base, let's start with a little word association. I threw it Chris's way first last time, so Scott, that means I'm coming to you. What do you think? Third base, go. Blurg.
Starting point is 00:38:06 That is definitely a fair response, and you will find out why, once we break down these tears. Chris, you're up. Third base. Yeah, I don't have anything to add. All right. We are going with... Scott eloquently summed it up. We're going with Blurg for the third base position this upcoming season. Let's start with the elite. Jose Ramirez has an ADP of 4.7,
Starting point is 00:38:28 actually identical to Vladimir Guerrero, who we spoke about earlier. And Jose Ramirez just... He did what he does every year. 266 batting average, 36 homers, 111 run scored, 103, RBI, 27 steals. He's incredibly consistent, has finished top 12 overall in Roto in four of the past five seasons. He's also
Starting point is 00:38:51 great in points leagues. He averaged 3.9 fantasy points per game, by far the most at the position last year. Scott, it's very obvious here. We have no issues spending a top five pick on Jose Ramirez. Who would you rather have, him or Vladimir Guerrero,
Starting point is 00:39:07 when you factor in position scarcity? I believe I rank Vladimir Guerrero ahead in both formats, but, you know, part of that is at this point I'm expecting Jose Ramirez to have just an ordinary batting average, even though he doesn't strike out much. The approach that allows him to hit so many home runs relegates him to like a 260 batting average, and Vladimir Guerrero could hit 320 or whatever, you know. So that helps make up for the Steele's difference.
Starting point is 00:39:38 You expect even more home run output from Guerrero than you do from Ramirez. But yeah, the thing that brings it close is that position scarcity because there may not be a clearer number one at any position, especially when you're factoring in Fernando Tatis' health concerns. Yeah, I don't think there's a clearer number one at any position than there is at third base where Jose Ramirez, you know, If you forget that weird stretch between 2019 and 2018 where he disappeared and you just look at the final numbers
Starting point is 00:40:15 those two years, I mean, every year, so bankable for stud production. All right, Chris, same question to you. Let's say the top three picks were Tatis, Trey Turner, Juan Soto. Would you go with Jose Ramirez or Vladimir Guerrero? It's really batting average versus steals, I think. So what is it for you? Yeah, I mean, I think the power production is probably going to be pretty similar. I think you would project Vlad for more, but it'll be close. It'll be probably within
Starting point is 00:40:40 five, I think is the most likely outcome. But yeah, I would take Vlad first. I just, I think you probably give him an edge in four out of the five categories, even if it's a relatively small one in a couple of those. And Jose Ramirez could steal 27 bases again. It wouldn't surprise me if he stole 21 this season. So, you know, he, he's an incredible player. Vladimir, Guerrero probably has just a tiny bit more upside. Yeah, especially when you factor in age, too. It's not like Jose Ramirez is old. I think he's 29. 29. Is he turning 30 this year? Is that I that? He turns 30 in midway through September. Okay. So yeah, I mean, it's his age 29 season. So he's not old, but obviously Vlad is is much younger. And, you know, because of that, I think maybe you give him a slight edge in
Starting point is 00:41:27 terms of upside still at this point. The near elite tier includes Raphael Devers who has an ADP of 18.3. Mani Machado at 26.3. Austin Riley at pick 47, Nolan Aronado at pick 64, and then Alex Breggman, who is going off the board at pick 75.7, and he is one tier lower in categories league, so Roto or head-to-head categories. Scott, I feel like when the season ended, we talked about the possibility of having Mani Machado ranked over Raphael Devers, and where do you kind of fall on that debate now? I do give the edge to Devers, but I'm probably going to draft more Machado. Machado could give you steals. He hasn't been a consistent source of them.
Starting point is 00:42:17 But he could give you some. Devers probably won't give you that many. But Devers seems like a better... Look, Machado could just have better numbers across the board. We've seen that from him before. but Medevers seems like a safer bet in the pure hitting categories than Machado does. So I do rank him slightly head, but it might be like two spots different in my rankings. Yeah, tiers-wise, I mean, obviously they belong in the same tier.
Starting point is 00:42:49 The interesting ones in this tier, I think, are Aeronado and Bregman. Breggman, as you mentioned, only in this tier in points league because this plate discipline is incredible. So I think it's fair to elevate him in that format. though is going quite a bit later than these other three Devers Machado and Riley I've tended in the few drafts I've done so far to
Starting point is 00:43:11 to kind of round three four turn take Riley just take them so that I don't have to worry about how awful this position gets and by the way I think the tiers even kind of undersell how bad it is because there's so many risks within
Starting point is 00:43:27 each tier but yeah I usually I've tended to take Riley at the three-four turn now. I still think that's fine. But seeing how late Aeronado consistently goes around six, sometimes around seven, yeah, I think he's probably the third basement I'm going to end up with the most. And given that I'm tearing him with those other three, it makes sense. Yeah, we talked about Austin Riley a lot recently.
Starting point is 00:43:51 We did a podcast, Can the 2021 Breakouts Do It Again in 2022? And we talked a lot about the possibility of batting average regression for Austin Riley. he hit 303 with a 279 expected batting average. And while he hits a lot of line drives, his babbib was 368. It was third highest in baseball. So I think we just expect natural regression. Maybe Austin Riley hits 275 to 280,
Starting point is 00:44:16 which is still really good. And I think it will be better than Nolan Aronado. But Chris, what do you think about that conversation of Austin Riley, Scott talking about taking him at the 3-4 turn, where you might be able to wait until, you know, if you have a late first-round pick, you might be able to wait till the five, six turn to get someone like Nolan Aronado.
Starting point is 00:44:34 Would you rather do that? Yeah, it's pretty unlikely that I'm going to draft Austin Riley. I think I would rather have Aronado and Bregman at their cheaper prices. You know, I think Riley, it's one of those things where it just depends on if he can sustain the progression that he made last season. And he's young. He's a top prospect. He's a talented player.
Starting point is 00:44:54 So all of those things are working in his favor. But it's also worth remembering that progress is not always linear. Rafael Devers is a good example of that. We've seen some ups and downs with him. I think he's a much more talented hit than Austin Riley. So I just could see long stretches from Austin Riley where the plate discipline just sort of swamps everything else and he can't really do much.
Starting point is 00:45:15 So I am worried about him for sure. I think the most worrisome aspect of Riley's profile, same thing for Manning Machado, is batting average. and yeah Aronado he's as a Cardinal he's probably going to hit 260 he doesn't get that bad bit boost
Starting point is 00:45:36 puts a lot of balls in the air doesn't get that bad bit boost he used to get a course puts a lot of balls in the air so you know you know Aronado's probably not going to help you in batting average but if you're penciling him in for 260
Starting point is 00:45:51 I mean I don't think Riley or Machado is a sure thing to hit over 260 either you know and they're probably They're probably all hitting between 30 and 35 home runs. So, and those are the kinds of things you think about when you're putting together tiers. What is the most likely scenario for this player? What is the upside, the downside, et cetera? And I think it's very plausible that Aeronado ends up with numbers that look about like Machadoes and Austin Riley's.
Starting point is 00:46:21 And I'll say in Aranado's defense, it was his first time playing outside of course field, seeing players change parks, especially a park that has that dramatic of an effect, it could have just been, you know, he needed a year to adjust. I wouldn't write off the possibility that he could, you know, probably not hit 300 again, but I don't think it's like a dramatically worse chance that he hits 280 than either Machado or Riley. You know, I think they probably have a better chance, but it's not, you know, 80% versus 20%. It's probably 30% versus 35% or something. Bregman in this tier, worth noting he underwent wrist surgery in November,
Starting point is 00:47:02 and he was actually just cleared to resume hitting last Friday, January 14th. So that's a good sign there for Alex Bregman. He turns 28 years old on March 30th. So he's still in his prime. So I would expect, you know, you don't love wrist surgery, but I still feel okay. I feel okay about the possibility of him bouncing back in that great Astros lineup. The next best things tier, we have Adelberto Montesey, ADP 69.7.
Starting point is 00:47:29 He is undoubtedly a tier lower in points leagues. Chris Bryant with an ADP of 86, Anthony Rendon, ADP 11.7, and then Justin Turner at 152.3. And as you could see, this tier is all over the place. Yes, on CBS, Adelberto Montesee will only have third base eligibility to start the season. We'll see if he plays shortstop, if Bobby Witt comes up, you know, how they shuffle those two guys around. Lots of steals can't stay healthy.
Starting point is 00:47:58 He has not played more than 102 games at the MLB level yet. Again, that is Adelbert. He's never played more than 127 games in the season ever. And that was going back to, I believe, 2013 when he was a 17-year-old prospect. So this is, you know, I am the injury agnostic guy, but this is a guy who literally has never stayed healthy. mean he can't do it this year, but I think he's undoubtedly the riskiest player in the draft pool. And I don't think anybody would really disagree with that. I think he's going to be one of the most controversial players again. And there is a 0% chance he finishes in the 70th overall
Starting point is 00:48:41 range in Roto. Yeah, he's either going to stay, if he plays 125 games, he's probably going to be a top 25 hitter. Yeah. Or he's not going to play at all. Yeah. You're right about that. I mean, The upside is just tantalizing. We saw it the year before where, you know, it was a shortened season. But in August, he hit 179, zero homers, seven steals. In September, he had 356, six homers, 16 steals in 24 games. I mean, if he could say healthy, he's amazing. Just put 2019 and 2020 together.
Starting point is 00:49:15 He played 161 games, 91 runs, 15 homers, 84 RBI, 260 batting average, 67 stolen bases. I mean, he could... It's crazy. He could steal more bases than a whole team. Yes. I'm looking at you, Yankees. They don't have a lot of...
Starting point is 00:49:33 They don't have a lot of speedsters on the base pass there. Chris Bryant is fine. He's still a free agent. We'll see what he could do. Scott, I want to talk a little bit... Sign with the Rockies. Sign with the Rockies. That would be awesome.
Starting point is 00:49:43 That would be awesome. For sure. Anthony Rendon, Scott, and Justin Turner. Very interesting. And I think at this point, they probably provide similar things, higher batting average. modest power, you know, maybe mid-20s in terms of home runs is what you're expecting there.
Starting point is 00:49:58 Rendon, I don't think he's done yet. I mean, he turns 32 years old in June. He's coming off hip surgery, but he has dealt with a good amount of injuries himself. So what do you think about Rendon versus Turner? They're going about 40 picks apart right now. I want, like, it's weird that I'm splitting up Bregman and Rendon because I feel like they've been such similar players throughout their careers. But I just, And I know Bregman had had a lot of issues staying healthy last year, but I just feel like the risks, especially coming back from hip surgery for Rendon or that much higher. He's a few years older than Bregman, so that doesn't help either.
Starting point is 00:50:38 If I miss out on that second tier, which I'm going to try not to, but if I miss out on Riley, if I miss out on Arodotto, then Rendon is probably going to be my fallback option, my number one fallback option at third base. just in the hopes he stays healthy and recaptures that second round form that he's shown in times in the past. But I don't feel good about him doing that.
Starting point is 00:51:05 Yeah. And, you know, injuries are a big concern for him because he's coming off the season that he had and the surgery that he had. But, you know, from 2017 through 2020, he missed no more than 26 games in any season and played at least and missed fewer than 15, I believe, in three out of the four.
Starting point is 00:51:28 So it's not like this has been a longstanding issue for him. It's really, he had one really bad year in terms of injuries and performance. And it's just a question of it. Is that the start of the end? What was the hip surgery he had? Hip impingement, okay. It was, yeah. If it was a labrum like Chapman had, like Matt Chapman had, that would be,
Starting point is 00:51:51 even scarier. But yeah, hips are tough. Hips are tough. Part of the issue, and this goes for Bregman as well, is they're both the kinds of players who aren't going to fare as well with the deadened ball. And, you know, Rendon wasn't very good even when he was healthy last year, and I'm not sure how much that played into it. The fallback options tier includes a few names that I think you're looking at for corner infield. We have Josh Johnleton, Matt Chapman, and Yohan Moncada. Chris, I want to try my best to just, like Scott's Ed, at least get someone from the previous tier to be my starting third baseman. Because if I've made it this far, then that means I did something very wrong. Yeah, I don't hate the idea of
Starting point is 00:52:39 having Matt Chapman as my starter just because I do think there's a pretty good chance he bounces back. He's still, you know, young enough that you wouldn't think it's just the end for him. So, and, you know, one thing that I don't mind if you're the type of person who's really ain't all retentive about setting your lineups, especially in a daily league, is, like, if you could get Josh Donaldson and C.J. Crohn is your corner infielders, and just like any time C.J. Crohn's not at course field start Josh Donaldson, that would probably be a very, very profitable companion. And, you know, you know Josh Donaldson, you're not going to get a full
Starting point is 00:53:14 season from him at this point. But he was still pretty productive when he did play last year. The stat cast numbers were outstanding for him. Yeah, you never know when that's going to end. He's in his late 30s at this point. So definitely not somebody you want to rely on as your number one third basement. That's why this tier's called the fallback options, right? I would say I would agree with Chris about Chapman.
Starting point is 00:53:36 And in fact, I have Matt Chapman in my sleepers 1.0. That's my number two fallback up. You know, if I don't get the Riley or Naradado going for Rendon, If that doesn't work out either, I'm going for Chapman because he'll be another gear removed from that torn labrum in his hip. And that's when we, Buster Posey, that was how he pulled that fake out where we thought he was done is because he needed a few years
Starting point is 00:54:00 to get back to full strength after that same surgery. And it happened last year and he was great again. Chapman, you really saw it impacted in his exit velocity way, way down last year. If he gets that back up, I think he's back to being a 40 homer candidate. especially if he winds up with the Yankees, right? In the Yankee Stadium. Or anywhere else, really.
Starting point is 00:54:20 Yeah. O. Dot Co or whatever we call it now is a pretty bad place for anyone to have to hit. And it's worth mentioning Moncada, like the same thing could happen with him. We've seen Moncotta be a high-end player at the past. He's still young enough that he could recapture it. It's not as clear cut how he gets back there to me, but it's certainly possible. I'll point out with Matt Chapman. There is a chance that they kind of trade everyone away and maybe keep PIM still as like the focal point of the rebuild. And if they do that, the counting stats are
Starting point is 00:54:50 probably going to be really bad. So just keep that in mind. You know, if they trade away Matt Olson and a few other pieces, maybe Chapman goes somewhere and obviously that would help his stock. But if he remains in Oakland without a Matt Olson type, I think obviously that would put a damper on his outlook as well. The last resort's tier, just two names. Eduardo Escobar and DJ LaMayhew, who you are likely to use at second base. We know what we're getting from Escobar at this point. a middling batting average, 250 plus, 25 home runs. I think you'll likely play every day, or close to every day for the New York Mets. But I want to move on to the-
Starting point is 00:55:23 Wait, wait, wait, just real quick. The last resort has two players at third base that is compared to nine at first base. Yeah, it's bad. There's just not a lot of, even when you're talking about at least at first base, like you said, Scott, there are names that are usable, someone that could provide something later on in your drafts there. And I think as we get into this next tier, the deep leaguers, there is some upside here. So I don't want to sell this tier short, but it includes Ryan McMahon, A. Eugenio Suarez,
Starting point is 00:55:51 Luis A. Patrick Wisdom, Jamer Candelario, and a former love interest of one, Scott White, Cabrion Hayes. Love No More, because I've seen some bashing going on on Twitter regarding Cabrion Hayes. I can't believe what his ADP is. He's basically getting drafted the same as he was last year. Around 150th. I'll tell you exactly why, Scott. People are basically throwing out last year because of the wrist injury.
Starting point is 00:56:17 They think it was solely because of that. And I guess there's a chance that that still affects him this year. And a lot of the drafts that are happening now are high stakes leagues, NFBC, and you need speed. And he gives you out of position speed. You know, he's projected for double digit steals at third base, which, you know, you're not really going to get that from anyone else outside of Jose Ramirez. So those are the main, I guess, defending points for Cabrano. I got those defenses on Twitter.
Starting point is 00:56:42 I would say that double-digit steals potential, 15-steel potential, let's say, isn't worth the hit I think he's going to give you in the other categories. I don't know that 30 steel potential is, frankly, because I'm just not confident he's going to provide much of anything in the way of power anymore. They could be right that it was all the wrist injury. It was just a season that got derailed early by that injury. He was not healthy the rest of the way, and that's why his numbers were. as bad as they were. But the minor league track record doesn't support that theory.
Starting point is 00:57:15 It's really just that stretch of what, 18 games in 2020 that suggests he could be this great hitter. And, you know, if that's the most recent thing I've seen from you, you're an up-and-comer and you have some nice underlying contact skills and everything, okay, I'm willing to see the glass
Starting point is 00:57:32 half full like I was last year. But when we have this much larger sample, that suggests like his minor league stats did, he's not much of a hitter, then I got to play it more skeptically than it seems like the majority are. So that's why I have him tiered here with like Jamer Candelario
Starting point is 00:57:49 and Patrick Wisdom. Who, as you pointed out, Frank? I mean, Candelario was useful last year. Wisdom has 40 homer potential probably. He might strike out too much to even keep his job. So there is upside here beyond just Hayes. But you're not, you can only expect
Starting point is 00:58:10 expectation-wise. You can only expect so much from this group. I will point out with Luis Arias. He was featured in my Breakouts 1.0 and he had a pretty, I'm not going to say big. It was a very good second half where he hit 266, he had an 850 OPS
Starting point is 00:58:26 and he just improved in all the ways that you want to see. He lowered his strikeout rate. He raised his walk rate. He hit more line drives. He made more hard contact. He's likely to play every day. Remember last year, They were kind of messing around where they weren't playing him every day. And once he started hitting, yeah, they got him in there.
Starting point is 00:58:43 So projected to play every day, start at third base for the Milwaukee Brewers. It's a solid lineup. I think there's some upside there. And it's a really good ballpark to hit in as well. So for all those reasons, Chris, I know that someone you liked in the past, Luis Arias, I think if everything breaks right for him, we could see like a 270, 25 plus Homer, you know, maybe six to eight steel kind of season, which I think would be a very, very good. Very good player at his cost right now.
Starting point is 00:59:09 I mean, from June 1st, his 146 game pace, he started, he was on pace for 146 starts from June 1st on. He hit 261 with a 29 homer, 99 run, 83 RBI pace. Yeah. Like he, I don't know how sustainable it is. Some of the underlying numbers don't quite back it up. But yeah, he's, he's absolutely someone I would love to draft. And I'm struggling with Ryan McMahon. And we don't talk about defense much in fantasy sports, obviously, because it doesn't matter, except for, you know, supporting pitchers.
Starting point is 00:59:44 But he was worth 22 fielding runs last season, and that got him to a 4.0 wins above replacement, which is by far the highest of his career. If that falters, like if he takes a step back defensively, if he regresses, I think he's at the point in his career where he's not guaranteed in everyday job. he is because he's on the Rockies you know Chris I mean they just maybe even if they had a great prospect I'm sure they would just keep running out Ryan McMahon and his
Starting point is 01:00:13 but he's also the kind of guy that like if he happened to get traded I don't think he would be fantasy relevant at all no he wouldn't you're absolutely right about that I mean like many Rockies never had a league average OPS plus yeah no he's never like he's a pretty bad hitter
Starting point is 01:00:30 outside of the context of course field he was a solid hitter last year I give him credit 254, 23 homers, 80 runs, 86 RBI, 6 steals. I mean, that's an okay player. I mean, that's a usable corner infielder. So I don't want to sell him short. He had a solid season and completely changed the launch angle and the batted ball data. So, you know, if he continues to go down that path, then maybe it's even more from Ryan McMahon.
Starting point is 01:00:53 But, yeah, no, I think it's a good point that you bring up. The numbers were pretty, pretty ugly after April, though. I know. He had, like, a good first month or two, and then he basically fell off. The leftovers will quickly wrap up here. Lots of names here. Alec Bohm, Josh Young, Jose Miranda, Kavan Bigio, Evan Longoria, Mike Mustakis,
Starting point is 01:01:11 Jonathan V.R. Gio Orchella, J.D. Davis, Luis Arise, Abraham Toro Hernandez, Brian Anderson, Carter Keyboom, Josh Harrison, John Bertie, and Jake Berger. He's got some prospects in this tier. Pretty interesting, Josh Young, Jose Miranda. Just give me a name.
Starting point is 01:01:29 Maybe your favorite sleeper of this group. I'm going to say Josh Young. I think he could push for a job in spring training. I'd like his chances more if he was on a team with a chance to go somewhere. But him and Jose Miranda both. If we hear a lot of buzz about them in spring training, they can move up quite a bit in my rankings. I'm about to complete my third draft of the offseason.
Starting point is 01:01:54 And I have Josh Young on one team. I have Jose Miranda on the other. So especially in like these deeper best ball or draft and holds. They are players at third base that I'm targeting later who I think do have some upside. Chris, just give me a name, a favorite sleeper here or someone that you're enticed by in this leftovers here? Alec
Starting point is 01:02:11 Bowm. I like the idea of taking him with a late round pick as a bounceback candidate. The underlying numbers aren't great overall, but there are enough enticing things there. I mean, the average X velocity being 89th percentile is a big deal. So,
Starting point is 01:02:27 that if he puts things together, I think he could still be a starting caliber player. And also want to point out, spelled like the Swiss psychoanalyst, Carl Jung, not Y-O-U-N-G. That is correct. If you haven't come across the name, he has a prospect, some people may not know. They hear you say young. They're going to be like, where's this Josh young guy? J-U-N-G. It's a good point. Yeah. I mean, probably something I should reveal to the people as the host of this podcast, but that's why you're here, Chris, to help me out.
Starting point is 01:02:59 So Josh, J-U-N-G is the name there, third-based prospect with the Texas Rangers. We're going to wrap there for Chris and Scott. I am Frank. Thank you all for listening. And watching Fantasy Baseball today will be back again on Wednesday with the middle infield tiers.
Starting point is 01:03:13 We will see you then. Bye-bye.

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