Fantasy Baseball Today - First Base Recap & Early 2023 Rankings! (10/25 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: October 25, 2022

The Yankees are out and the World Series is set (2:00)! ... Is First Base deep (6:55)? ... Paul Goldschmidt was the second overall player in Fantasy this year (9:15). ... Freddie Freeman was consistent as always (13:07). ... Pete Alonso is one of the premiere sluggers in the game (16:35). ... Vladimir Guerrero Jr. lowered the launch angle again (19:57). ... Are we buying Christian Walker (24:10)? ... Matt Olson is who he is (29:07). ... Is Nate Lowe for real (33:20)? ... There are some warning signs with CJ Cron (36:10). ... Jose Abreu's power plummeted (40:27). ... Rhys Hoskins has been consistent (43:33). ... News (46:00): Fernando Tatis Jr. will miss 20 games next season. ... Let's take a look at the top-10 first basemen for 2023 (50:55). ... How far will Vinnie Pasquantino rise (56:05)? Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get 20% off Fantasy Baseball Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. First base seems to be a deep position, but just how deep is it? Let's find out.

Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today. On Tuesday, October 25th, Frank Stanvel joined by Scotty Dubbs. white. Today on the show, you guessed it. First base year in review. We'll take a look at, I'll look back at the top 10 finishers at the position from this past season and early 2023 first base rankings. Scotty, it's my time to join you, bud. On the sideline, the Yankees were once again defeated by our nemesis, the Houston Astros in the ALCS, a sweep in which I was at the final game of the series.

Had to see it in person, huh? I've never actually been to the final game of a baseball season. I guess for a specific team, but it's never happened before. Yeah. Now I've done it. You got to see the Astros celebrating on your field. I didn't actually see that celebration. No, I didn't watch a single second.

Was it raucous? No, as soon as the final out at first base happened, I just walked out of the stadium. I did not. I did not watch a single second of it. You didn't see it. You'd think for a sweep it'd be a little subdued, especially for a team that's been to the World Series as frequently as the Astros have in recent years. But I don't know. I didn't happen to see it.

Yeah, no, that's, you know, if you didn't, the good news is, Frank, even if they'd made it past the Astros, the Yankees would have just lost to the Phillies because they're the team of destiny and eat everybody. Hey, you know what? I hope you're right, because I don't want to see the Astros win again unless I am. I think I'm actually rooting for the Astros, T.B.H. Oh, Jesus. God. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry, World. I want to, because, you know, obviously they won the World Series, but then, you know, it was the year. What year was it? 2019? And, you know, obviously that has the stink of the sign stealing scandal, which I think, I think it was overblown.

reaction to it was overblown to begin with. And a lot of these players have been treated too harshly in relation to it. So I'd like to see them win one, this like core. And I know some of the core is gone now, Carlos Correa, Garikull, they're gone. I get that. But obviously, the Astros have had a dominant multi-year stretch here. And I'd like to see it rewarded with the World Series title in a way that people can't undermine and dispute. And so I'm rooting for them.

All right. Plus, I'd like to see, I like to see greatness rewarded. And I still, I talked about that last time with the Phillies, the fact that they were the third place team in their own division, only one,

how many games? Like, nobody was expecting the World Series. So I'm rooting for the Astros, and I may be the only one who's not an Astros fan himself. Well, you are the only one rooting for the Astros because I was about to say, I will not be doing that. I'm going for the Phillies.

I think the Astros are probably really, realistically going to win it all because they are just watching them up close in person. They are such a fundamental team. Like they play great defense. They run the base as well. They have such great at bads. Plate discipline. They don't swing at pitches outside the strike zone.

They make every pitcher work. They have great pitching as well. It's just they are such a great team top to bottom. Jeremy Payneau won the ALCS MVP award and he's a baller, Scott. I know we didn't see it consistently throughout the season, but in terms of power speed and especially what he offers defensively, he's going to be really good. I think Jeremy,

like we haven't seen in like the OPS and like the overall hitting stats yet, but I think Jeremy Payne is going to be a player. Yeah, I mean, certainly defensively, he adds a lot of value. Will that translate to fantasy so much? I have my doubts about that. That he's like he's so lacking in all. on base skills that it's going to take a lot of power and or a lot of speed. And I'm not sure he's going to deliver enough of either to be a real standout in fantasy.

But he'll be a useful player, probably. 22 homers, 11 seals as a rookie, that's pretty impressive stuff. So I think I think Payne is going to turn out to be really good. We'll save more analysis for him when we get to our shortstop preview. And speaking of the Phillies, Bryce Harper, just an awesome series for him. well. In the postseason, he's batting 419, five homers, a 1351 OPS. He took home the NLCS MVP. Great call. I think it was by Joe Davis to the swing of his life for Bryce Harper. So it's really cool to see Harper get into the World Series and now we'll see what they do. Philly's going up

against the Astros there. All right, Scott, you've already made your prediction known that you will be going for the Astros. I'm going to... It's not a prediction so much as a rooting interest. But if you're asking me to predict, I'll predict the Astros too. I'll usually predict the better team. I mean, obviously, that's not always the way the playoffs go and that's why you play the playoffs. But yeah, that's usually what I'll do. All right. So that is the playoffs in the World Series. Let's get into the first base recap from this past season. I mentioned at the top that it is a relatively deep position. 13 players finish inside the top 100 in Roto according to the CBS five by five algorithm. So that seems like a pretty good number. I think there was, when I was

looking at up, nine at second base inside the top 100, nine at third base inside the top 100. We know now that second base and third base are quite shallow, not great positions. And then shortstop, there was like 15 or 16. So I think first base kind of lies somewhere in between that. Like, not as deep as shortstop, but definitely better than second base and third base. No, when you were counting these at each position, were you taking out players who won't be eligible to positions next year? For instance, did you count Trey Turner as a second baseman or no? Let's see.

I did. I did. So second base is even worse than I thought. Yeah. First base probably loses the least players of those positions to next year's eligibility. So that even further distinguishes. in terms of the number of players who finished in the top 100 overall in Roto.

And, you know, it's kind of strange because it's not deep, it's not deep at the top so much. Like, there are a few sure things at first base, I feel like. But there are a lot of players coming off good seasons who may be able to repeat those good seasons. And there are a lot of other players who have the potential to have good seasons.

So I think certainly when you just compare it to any other infield position, second and third base, as you mentioned, it's really no comparison in terms of depth. Shortstop, they're deep in different ways. First base and shortstop. Shortstop has more sure things, but once they run out, once they run out,

there's not a lot to like at the position in first base. You know, you can pretty much always find a first baseman that you're at least somewhat interested in. Yeah, you mentioned that top four groups, Scott, and that seems to be the elite standouts at the position. We actually have a poll going on YouTube. So if you're watching live, you can vote on which one you would draft first of that group. And let's start with the number one from this past season.

That was Paul Goldschmidt, who finished second overall in Roto. Of course, the number one first baseman. He averaged 3.8 fantasy points per game. Just an awesome mark in that format and head-to-head points. and he was being drafted as the fifth first baseman off the board. During draft season, he went 317, batting average, 35 homers, 106 runs, 115 RBI, 7 steals, true five category contributor. Didn't run as much as he did in 2021, but it did not matter, Scott.

Really, outside of 2019, Goldschman has been so consistent, 286 or better, every season of his career. He has 31 homers in each of his past five full season, 31 plus home runs during that time. The only thing's got that I'll look at, and I think a lot of people will look at, is the underwhelming expected statistics, right? What do we make of these? He hit 317, his ex-BA was 261, he slugged 578, his ex-slug was 482. Does that matter?

I don't know. You tell me. I don't think it does at this point. You mentioned Paul Goldschmidt was the fifth first baseman to be drafted. to last this season heading into this season 2020 and remember at that time we were kind of skeptical of this bounce back season he had it looked like he was on the decline and then he puts up the these kind of throwback numbers for paul goldsmith with all the steals and everything and we were like it doesn't make sense for a guy to be doing this in his mid 30s skepticism is

warranted and then he comes back and you know the steals were down a little bit but otherwise the numbers were even better than during that bounce back season. So I think the him doing it in back to back years like that, I understand it'll be 35 next year, but I've kind of been

I don't know what the right word is, disappointed, I guess, that when I go on Twitter and kind of gauge where everybody's at in the early rounds, first round, second round, there seems to be no enthusiasm for drafting Goldschmidt again. At least, you know, we're, we're

talking drafting for 2023 in October. I get it. Ideas are going to change over the next several months, but there just doesn't seem to be a lot of appetite for treating Paul Goldschmidt like an early rounder, even though he's performed, well, shoot, I mean, if you want to know, obviously Aaron Judge was the best player hitter in fantasy this past year, but if you want to know who was second, at least according to CBS's roto formula,

Paul Goldschmidt was the number two overall hitter in 2022. So, yeah, I feel like he deserves, like, frankly, I feel like he deserves to go, like he could make a case for him to be a late first rounder. It's not going to happen in any league, I don't think, just based on the temperature I've taken so far, but absolutely Paul Goldschmidt deserves to be a second rounder next year. And I have him, let me double check this, yeah, I have him as my number two first baseman in both formats. I may be an oddball. Again, it seems like other people

want to go Vladimir Guerrero, Pete Alonzo even, I've seen enthusiasm for him over Goldschmidt, but now I'm going to take Goldschmidt. Yeah, I was going to save that for a little bit later on, and we'll talk about it, but that is an early take in your rankings that I do not think will be a popular one, Scott. I do think people just aren't

enthusiastic to draft a 35-year-old first baseman coming off arguably a career year. I think some regression will come. Like, he absolutely crushed lefty Scott to a point where this is not sustainable. He had 411 with a 1327 OPS

against left-handed pitching last year. That's just not repeatable in my opinion. So that will come down a little bit. I think the overall numbers will come down a little bit. But I do think he's trustworthy. Let's move on to number two. The number two first basement from this past season was Freddie Freeman. He finished as the third

overall player in Roto. So it was Judge Goldie Freeman. Those are your top three players in fantasy baseball this past season. He averaged 3.7 fantasy points per game. That was second at the position. And he was being drafted as the 12th overall player last year. So obviously just paying off value as he always does in Freddie Freeman. He hit 325. That was second best in all of baseball. 21 homers took a little bit of a step back there. 117 run scored that was tied for second most in Major League Baseball. 100 RBI. 13 steals obviously led the first base position. There's just not a lot of players who run

at first base. And of course, he did that with his new team in the Los Angeles Dodgers. He has hit 300 or better, six of the last seasons. Freddie Freeman has. batted ball quality, spot on here, Scott. I mean, the only thing you look at

that changed was the power. I mean, his home run to fly ball ratio was down a little bit. Maybe he's more of a 20 to 24 home run hitter in this new environment, but I don't think it matters because he contributes so much everywhere else, batting average, counting stats, steals.

So what? If I get less power, it does not matter to me one bit. Well, maybe he is more like a 20 to 25 homer guy in this environment, or maybe it was just kind of a fluky thing that happened in hitting so few home runs. I mean, he underperformed his expected slug by 27 points. And let's see, here, let me look this up real quick. no, that's not really going to tell a better story. Yeah, I mean, I look at his stat cast page

still basically lit up in red. I mean, he still hits the ball very hard. He still has a quality launch angle. I think there's a good chance he bounces back with another 30 homer season. And if Roto Formula had him is the number three overall player, even with him underperforming so much in home runs,

then just imagine. what the upside looks like for Freddie Freeman in this Dodgers lineup where he's driving in so many runs and scoring so many runs. Not that he didn't do a lot of that with the Braves, but I think the Dodgers gives him a higher floor in those two categories. And I mentioned the debate over who's the number two first base minimumary rankings and how Guerrero and Alonzo were in that discussion with Goldschmidt. I didn't mention Freeman because I have him number one. he's the one first baseman who I think is going to be worth drafting in the first round next year. Again, it's something like 12th overall because there are higher priority positions, higher upside players to fill those spots ahead of him.

But Freeman hasn't lost any of his lester to me, even with the disappointing home run output. I think Freeman has earned that right too. He's just been so consistent for so long. I think it makes sense for him to be the top first baseman, the board. Once that one other side I wanted to bring up is that from June 1st on he had a 14.8% home runs to fly ball ratio which is much closer to his career mark. Could have just taken some time to get acclimated to the Dodgers and playing in a new ballpark for a new team. But yeah, it would not surprise me one bit if he bounces back for like 25, 26, 27 home runs

next year. Pete Alonzo was the third overall first basement and the seventh overall player in Roto 3.5 fantasy points per game in that format. And he was drafted as the fourth first basement off the board last year. 44th overall, so did pay off quite a bit of value. He hit 271. 40 home runs led the position, 131 RBI tied for the league lead with Aaron Judge. 146 homers got 380 RBI since the start of 2019 for Pete Alonzo. Both of those, the most in baseball.

He is the premier home run hit. in the game, who hits in the middle of a pretty damn good lineup with the Mets. And I don't really see any reason why that's going to change. Scott, he has legitimately improved as a player, too. What do you mean by the premier home run hitter in the game? Just because obviously that's Aaron Judge. I guess in the National League. He's one of the premier home run hitters in the game.

Yeah. Yeah, he is. 40. I mean, you can pencil him in for between 35 and 40 home runs. I feel about as confident saying that for Pete Alonzo as any player, including maybe even Aaron Judge because of Judge's health history, right? So, yeah, and another interesting fact here with Pete Alonzo, he and Aaron Judge were the first two players to have 40-plus home runs,

130 RBI plus in a season since 2017, or 2018, I think it was, when J.D. Martinez did it. J.D. Martinez was the last dude. It had been a few years. And Pete Alonzo joined with Judge in doing that. Here's one issue I have with him. So those 131 RBI were compared to 94 in 2021, and that wasn't an injury thing.

He played 152 games that year. So that's, like, I don't think you can just pencil them in for 130 RBI again. Will it be more than 94? Probably the Mets lineup looks to be better in 2023 than it was in 2021. But that massive RBI total did a lot to elevate Pete Alonzo. And especially when you look at, you know, Freddie Freeman's kind of made himself into a little bit of a base dealer. Gulchman has a history of doing that. Alonzo is absolutely not going to help you in stolen bases.

So definitely deserves to rank behind those guys, even if he is maybe. the safest power source of the three. There is a lot of volatility, Scott, and projecting counting stats year over year. It's just we have to look at lineups and try and, look, we're taking educated guesses, right,

trying to figure out where the most counting stats could come. Like, I noticed this with Reese Hoskins. We'll talk about him in a little bit. If Philly's lineup felt like it was pretty good for most of the season, his counting stats were really lackluster. Same thing with Nate Lowe.

He had a great year. He hit over 300. He hit a bunch of home runs. Counting stats were not good. So it's just really hard to predict counting stats year over year. You mean specifically you mean runs an RBI. Yeah, yeah, runs an RBI. So much of it is dependent on the context of your team.

And we just don't really know until the season gets up and running. I still think the Mets are going to be pretty good. But obviously, we'll see what they do in the offseason. Your number four first baseman was Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who finished 24th overall. He averaged 3.2 fantasy points per game. He was drafted as the first first baseman off the ball. board last year. He was taking

top three overall in most drafts, I would say. In Roto, maybe he slept a little bit, top five, something like that. But either way, a little bit of a disappointment. He didn't really crush you or anything. He had 274, 32 homers, 90 runs, 97 RBI, and eight steals. Surprisingly enough,

career high, tied for third best at the position. One thing I noticed got extremely durable. Vlad Jr. has missed only three games over the past three seasons. The question is what happened this year, right? why did the slugging take such a step back? Why did the home runs take a step back?

It really just comes down to the launch angle, Scott. We get these year-over-year inconsistencies with Vlad where in 2021, he hit more fly balls and less ground balls, and his home run total took off. This year kind of reverted back, and that's why we see the home run power come down a little bit. I still think he can get back to like 40 homers and a great batting average, but it really just comes out to the launch angle.

Yeah. I mean, look, the fact he still hit 32 home runs in a worse environment for home runs and with the launch angle problems, I think, is a testament to Vladimir Guerrero's skill. I was a little disappointed, given how hard he hits the ball, how little he strikes out, that he's bat at only 274. That almost strikes me as weirder than the decline in home runs that we saw. So, I mean, if we're treating 2021 where he flirted with triple crown honors, where he was the number one player in Roto, despite not being much of a base dealer at all, if we're treating that 2021 season is Vladimir Gurra's upside, then I think we could look at 2022 as approximately the downside. And, yeah, if that's the downside, you're talking about a really good player.

I don't have an issue with anybody just kind of reflexively ranking Guerrero is the number one first baseman against since he's so young since we've seen how high the upside is. I'm not doing that, but I think there's definitely a case for it. Yeah, that early draft that I did, Scott, Vlad went three picks before Freddie Freeman.

So there still is going to be some people next year who want to draft him as the first, first baseman off the board. And it makes sense. Vlad will turn 24 years old in March, and as we saw in 2021, the upside is still sky high. I did want to bring up his eight steals.

All of them came in the second half, and I asked Ben Nicholson Smith about it. He does a great job covering the Blue Jays for Sportsnet. You can follow him at B. Nicholson Smith, and he attributed the aggressiveness to John Schneider, taking over as the manager. I looked at the date when John Schneider took over. They didn't run a ton more,

like their rate of stealing bases. on a poor game basis was a little bit better under John Schneider. So maybe it's something where we can pencil in 5 to 10 for Vlad. And obviously we're expecting more steals in general. I mean, you see slow players sometimes have these spurts where they steal more bases. I remember the first couple months a couple years ago, Rafael Devers had a stretch like that. And then he didn't steal anything else the rest of the year. And he hasn't been a base dealer since then.

I've already said next year is going to be the Wild West. far as stolen bases go with the rule changes. So, you know, I'm not going to put it past, I wouldn't put it past Vladimir Guerrero to steal eight bases again. But I think if he does, it's because the environment for steals changed that much, not because Vladimir Guerrero has a knack for stealing bases. 33rd percentile sprint speed. So I'm not talking about a guy who profiles for a lot of that. I remember Poulos used to run wild back in the days. He used to like approach 20 steals. And he was, was not a fast player at any point in his career. He just knew how to pick his spots and he was

kind of a savvy base runner. So maybe Vlad could do some of the same. The number five first baseman from this past season was Christian Walker who finished 50th overall in Roto 2.9 fantasy points per game. He had an ADP outside of the top 400 before this season. Some people might have even picked him up and he as a result he might have been a league winner. He hit 242, 36 homers, 94 RBI, both of those numbers. numbers were career highs, did a better job of making contact Scott. It was a career best strikeout rate. Christian Walker hits the ball hard. He puts it in the air. And he could be even better based on his expected statistics. What do you think about this breakout season for Christian Walker?

Yeah, he's a really hard player to rank because obviously we had written him off in fantasy. He had a he had a season where he was more or less must start in 2019, where power numbers were up across the league. I joke sometimes everybody set a career high in home runs in 2019. It wasn't literally everybody, but it was more or less everybody. And Christian Walker was part of that. But then he did nothing in 2020, nothing in 2021. It's like just replace him with Seth Beer already.

Come on, guys. And then he goes and has this season, which is even better than that 2019 season. And all the underlying numbers more or less support it. You mention his expected. batting average was 15 points higher than his actual one. Boy, he got that, he got that batting. 242 is what he ended up with.

Yeah. He hit 285 in the second half, Scott. Yeah, so he already showed a lot of improvement. Oh, yeah. But yeah, I think there's room for more with Christian Walker in the batting average department because he doesn't strike out a lot. I mean, it's Pete Alonzo

like contact rate with the power. And what I'm noticing as I start looking at hitters numbers against the shift, how often they were shifted on, what they did against the shift. What I'm noticing is that when you see this discrepancy between a player's expected batting average on statcast

and his actual batting average on stat cast in terms of underperforming his expected batting average, it's because he was shifted on a lot or did especially bat against the shift. It seems related to the shift. So with the new limitations placed on the shift next year, certainly, you know, you can't see teams do the exaggerated shift three infielders on one side of second base. That's out.

They can shift a little still, but two fielders have to be on each side of second base. So it's going to help things. It's going to help batting averages on ground balls. And Christian Walker was one of the most shifted upon right-handed hitters last year. So that might explain the discrepancy between the expected batting average and the actual batting average. As you point out, he showed some improvement in that regard in the second half anyway, but I do think there's room for more. Yeah, just backing that up, Scott. He hit 233 against the shift last year, Christian Walker, and he hit 292 against non-shifts.

So I don't think that he can be a 290 hitter, but maybe he can hit 260, 270, something like that. I don't think it's crazy. And then the other question, and I don't want to gloss over this, is, is he actually this good? Was it just kind of a one-off fluke thing? And there's nothing in the data that suggests it was, but there certainly isn't a track record to suggest it was. And it might wind up being a total bust. So, I'll get into where I have him ranked next year, but I'm not comfortable with where I have them ranked. If anything, it might be a little too high.

All right. We'll get to Chris Walker again in just a little bit. But before we do that, I have to tell you about one of our great partners. These days, every new potential hire can feel like a high-stakes wager for your small business. You want to be 100% certain that you have access to the best qualified candidates available. That's why you have to check out LinkedIn jobs. That's LinkedIn jobs. They help you find the right people for your team faster and for free.

It's really easy to post a job too. All you have to do is sign in to LinkedIn jobs, then click on the, the post a free job button to get started, add your job and the purple hashtag hiring frame to your LinkedIn profile to spread the word. It's easy as that. It's why small businesses rate LinkedIn jobs, number one in delivering quality hires

versus leading competitors, much like the Astros and Phillies are looking to do in the World Series. It's so important to finish out the year strong. Hiring the right team members might just help you do that. LinkedIn jobs helps you find the qualified candidates you want to talk to faster.

your job for free at LinkedIn.com slash FBT. That's LinkedIn.com slash FBT to post your job for free. Terms and conditions apply. Number six in the first base rankings this past season was Matt Olson, who finished just one spot behind Christian Walker, 51st overall in Roto, 2.9 fantasy points per game. He was drafted as a third first basement off the board last season at an ADP of 24.2 overall. He hit 240 with 34 homers and 103 RBI. His 123 home runs are the fifth most in baseball since the

start of 2019. It's got the biggest takeaway here is that the strikeout rate just jump back up. That's really the biggest difference. 17% in 2021, 24% in 2022. I think at this point we have enough data to know that Matt Olson is probably around a 250 hitter. Some years, if it's slightly better, you know, maybe we'll get 260, 270. Slightly worse, he'll hit 240. But I think we just kind of know who he is at this point. Rough batting average, really good power, good counting stats. Yeah, I mean, it was obviously a disappointing season for him in fantasy.

For the past couple years, I've said that Matt Olson and Pete Alonzo are basically mirror images of each other, one batting left-handed, one batting right-handed. And you saw Olson have the better year in 2020. You saw Pete Alonzo have the much, much better year in 2022. And I think the extent of the difference there, well, I only have one spot apart in my rankings, but it's a big gap between Pete Alonzo and Matt Olson. A clear tier of four there at the top of first base,

Freeman Goldschmidt, Guerrero Alonzo. And then I think Olson may be in a tier of his own after that. Because he could go, he could end up, he could go either way. could end up producing like those four ahead of him. We've seen him do it before. Or what happened in 2022 is he ended up performing like the lower first baseman, the tier that comes after the Alonzo's and Guerrero's of the world. Yes, you point out the strikeout rate and looking at the history for Matt Olson,

that 2021 rate where he struck out only 16.8% of the time, that's the aberration. so maybe maybe the 2022 version is closer to the true version. I do think there's something to be said for a player in a new league with a new team just

you know maybe kind of needing a while to get comfortable obviously he stepped into a particularly emotional situation in Atlanta and though he handled himself in interviews like a champ stands to reason the pressure of that

weighed on him some. And he was pretty awful down the stretch especially, was Matt Olson. It got hot at the very end, six home runs at his last nine games, I think. But it was crashing and burning before that. So, you know, that helped his batting average end up where he is. I, for the most part, I agree with you. I think 250 batting average could maybe approach 40 home runs. I actually had a rule of thumb back when I first started doing this gig

before the data became what it is with Babbip and Stackcast and all of that. One of my rules of thumbs for every hitter was they're all capable of hitting within 30 points of their career batting average in either direction, like their best season's going to be 30 points higher than their career batting average, their worst season is going to be 30 points lower than that. And though I don't really refer back. to that anymore just because we have more sophisticated ways of analyzing these things. I think that's, I think that's, uh, that's still basically true. And, uh, Matt Olson's a career 250 hitter.

Could he hit 281 year? You hit 271 already. So it's possible. Uh, but he could also hit 210 and we've seen him do things like that before too. Yep. Neither one would surprise me. I will say if we're getting any discount on Matt Olson heading into 2023, I think I'm going to be in, uh, especially hitting in the middle of that Braves.

Rays lineup. Number seven this past season was Nate Lowe. He finished 57th overall. Surprisingly just 2.7 fantasy points per game that was tied for 21st at the position. Nate Lowe had an ADP of 250 coming into the season. So quite the breakout year for him, where he hit 302 overall with 27 homers, 74 runs, 76 RBI. So again, the runs, the RBI, definitely low compared to everything else that he did. But true breakout season here, Scott, hit less ground balls, put the ball in the air more, was much more aggressive. He didn't walk as much. That's why you kind of see it reflected in his head-to-head points per game.

But are you buying what we just saw from Nate Lowe this past season? Mostly, yeah, I mean, the bat bit being as high as it was, I think he'll struggle to hit for the same average again. And though it's such an impressive stat that I want to point it out, well, I don't have the stat at the ready. again, so I'll have to look it up. Basically, his whole season was mid-June on. Nate Lowe just caught fire and produced like a true stud at the position.

Okay, so from June 7th on, Nate Lowe hit 322 with 22 home runs at 923 OPS. Wow. So it's a good stat to cite, right? But you don't actually want to draft him like it could be that. because I think if there's anywhere where he's going, any area where he's going to regress, it's in the batting average, given how high that bat-ip was.

But, you know, he was a good hitter in the minors. The fact that he got to his power more, I think certainly certainly gives you reason to buy into Nate Low as a starter at first base. I just think it's more likely he takes a step back than step forward. And as you point out,

the runs in RBI for him. 76 RBI, 74 runs. This is despite playing 157 games and hitting over 300 for the year, right? That's really weird that those numbers were low. And so maybe just the natural correction that comes with that will help offset him hitting potentially 280 instead of 307. You mentioned the BABB.

It was 363 this past season, 349 for his career. So he does typically run high Babbab. but even his expected numbers according to Stackcast were not nearly as good as his actual numbers. So I agree he's probably likely to regress a little bit, but he's also just a young player coming into his own. So I don't want to discount that possibility too much. Brandon Drury was the eighth ranked first baseman, but we'll save him for the third base position when we do that. Let's move on to the profit pocket. As I referenced many times before the season, C.J. Cron was part of that, and he finished

a 61st overall in Roto, 2.8 fantasy points per game. 257, 29 homers, 102 RBI. The 102 RBI were a career high, and he was part of the profit pocket, and he provided a lot of value this past season. The main thing for him, Scott, was that he stayed healthy. Health has been a big issue for C.J. Crow, and he played 150 games this past season.

That was a career best. I don't feel very enthusiastic about him for next season. He couldn't hit left-handed pitching, for some odd reason. His home road splits were very, very drastic and he wasn't really as good over the final two months of the season, final

four months of the season actually. He had 1.97 in the second half. Oh, it's brutal. Yeah. I don't know. How you feel about CJ Cron? Are you down on him like I am? I think he'll probably be fine. I mean, the main thing he has going for him is he's under contract with the Rockies still. He pointed out the homeway splits were ridiculous, just to read them out.

303 with a 955 OPS at total stud, 2.14 with a 619 OPS on the road. And you don't see, like obviously, Corfield is one of the best places to hit, probably the best place to hit. You don't see splits as dramatic as that

for most of their hitters anymore. You used to see that more. But C.J. Cron is clearly somebody who benefits from playing in that favorable hitting environment, but he's going to keep playing there. As for him slowing down, down in the second half. I don't think this means he just doesn't know how to hit anymore.

He will be 33 next year, so he's not young. I think it's one of those situations there, though, where you should say, okay, full season statistics are more indicative than partial season statistics. He probably played over his head in the first half and made an all-star team. And he's not as good as that, even with the help of course field.

But is he good enough to start in fantasy? I would say as long as he stays with the Rockies. Absolutely. All right. That is C.J. Cron. And before we get to our number nine first baseman from this past season, let's take a break and hear word from our partners. All right. Let's get into number nine at the position.

That is Jose Abraeu, who finished 73rd overall in Roto, 2.8 fantasy points per game. He had an ADP of 60 coming into the season. So a slight loss. And that's because the power was way down. He hit 304, 15 homers. and 75 RBI. The home run and RBI totals were both his lowest

in any of his eight full seasons and the power was just sapsed Scott. His home run to fly ball ratio went from 20% in 2021 to 9.6% this past season. He's getting up there in age. Obviously, the environment has changed, but I still kind of feel like

that's going to bounce back. He is set to be a free agent and the early indicators is that he's not going to be back or the White So we'll have to see where he winds up. But a bounceback season for Jose Bray would not surprise me at all. Yeah, I'm expecting it.

And I think he's going to come at quite a discount next year. People are really quick to write him off. Where did you say he went in that early 15 team mock you did? It was... Oh, he went so late. It was outrageous. 149th overall. Just by virtue of what he did this past,

year. Just taking that at face value. That seems way too late. He finished. You had 304. Yeah. 75 RBI 85 runs, 15 home runs. I mean, you want better from Jose Bray. You used to see him better from Jose Bray, but that's still good production.

Where'd you say he finished? 73rd overall. Yeah. And then, you know, going beyond that, I think the home runs were kind of like I said for Freddie Freeman, but maybe even more so in Jose Bray's case, the decline in home runs was an aberration, half as many as 20-21, so 15 home runs compared to the 30 he hit

that year, and yet he had a higher X-slug the 15 homer season, then the 30-homer season. He was still 93rd percentile for average exit velocity. So I think the knee-jerk reaction is going to say, okay, Jose Brayu, he's turning 36 next

year, and or, you know, this new dead ball, humidor environment, You know, he's just not going to produce the same kind of power in it. I mean, the ex-slug, by the end of the year, it was accounting for that. And again, it ended up being higher than in his 30-home or 2020 season. So I just think it was kind of a fluky thing for Jose Brayu.

And I would expect 25 home runs or so again for him next year, unless he goes to somewhere that's going to totally stifle that. I just had a crazy idea, Scott. Anthony Rezzo has a player option this off season. We'll talk about Rizzo in just a bit. The Yankees might need a first baseman. Jose Ibrahim makes a lot of contact. He's got some power.

They could use a left-handed bad, but I don't know. Could make some sense. We'll see where he winds up, but Yankees could be an option for Jose Abrae. The number 10 first baseman this past season, Reese Hoskins, finally. This is the real Reese Hoskins. Not my complete brain fart earlier.

He finished 81st overall in Roto, 2.7 fantasy points per game. Again, his ADP was 127, and he finished 81st. So profit, like to see that. 246 batting average, 30 home runs, 81 runs, 79 RBI, and finally stayed healthy. 156 games. He struggled with that each of the past two seasons.

One thing that stood out to me, Scott, he did change his batted ball data this year quite a bit. Four straight years with a fly ball rate up over 50%. This year, it was down at 4.4. 42% and he still managed to hit 30 home runs. So, you know, let's say he hits more fly balls next year. I would not be surprised if Reese Hoskins hits 35 to 40 home runs. I'd be a little surprised if he had that many.

How many did you say? He hit 30 this year and that's with hitting a lot less fly balls than he normally does. Right. His career high is 34 and that was obviously in a juiced ball league. Another thing, another change that Reese Hoskins has made as his careers unfolded is he's not, he doesn't walk as much as he used to. He used to be one of the absolute standouts for that and made him much more valuable in points leagues than in Roto. But now he's kind of an above average walk guy. He's become a little more reliable and batting average as a result, but reliably hitting 245. not anything to write home about.

So I would say his points league value has dropped down to his roto league value and now they're about even in those two four bats, mainly just a power specialist and a good lineup, but decidedly second, maybe even third tier, depending where you draw the lines,

is Reese Hoskins. His batting average is past three seasons, Scott, 245, 247, 246. I would say it's pretty consistent and projectable at this point. Kind of like a poor man's Matt Olson, there is Reese Hoskins. Before we get into Scott's early rankings for next year, which, you know, of course we're not going to spend too much time on because a lot can change, but we do want to give you an idea,

get those wheels turning a little bit. We do have some news and notes. Not much going on, obviously. We'll wait for after the World Series. Hot stove will fire up and hopefully we'll get more news then. But the Padres have been eliminated and as a result, Fernando Tatsis Jr. will miss the first 20 games next season. That is set in stone. I guess it's possible he misses more time if he's recovering from an injury or surgery, whatever it might be.

But that makes him eligible to return on April 20th next season. Scott, does that change Fernando Tatsis's value at all? I'd kind of be surprised if he's ready that early. So my initial reaction is no. Where did he go in that early mock you did? He went entirely too late. He went, let's see. Mike, he's going to be a second rounder at worst.

He, oh my gosh, he went 60, 55th overall. Yeah. So that was clearly just him being buried in the draft room, right? Yeah. Yeah, he's going to be no later than. a second rounder. Could this push him into the first round? We saw Ronald de Cunia move up over the course of last draft season. So I definitely think something similar could happen to

Tatis. So there have been four drafts at the NFBC so far. And again, this is going to change a lot in the off season, but just to give you an idea. Fernando Tatis Jr.'s ADP is 38 in those four drafts. So people are kind of scared right now, Scott. A lot can change, but... I don't know. That's, I really don't. I think it's just, he's not top of mind right now.

That's my guess. I mean, I've done a lot of early mock drafts over the years, and he's the kind of player that just gets overlooked. Yeah. In hindsight, I took Jose Altuve in the late second round, 15 team league, so I think it was 28th overall. If I could do it again, I think I would take Fernando Tatis and take a shot on more upside with him.

I mean, I don't mind that price for Altuve for what it's worth. but yeah, Tatea should go earlier. Oh, I have far away been the high pick on Jose Altuvae. Scott, he's gone as early as 28 when I took him as late as 52. So like I said, at the end of the season, people are going to continue to discount Jose Altuvae for whatever reason, but. Yeah.

There you go. I like that because, I mean, second base gets awful faster than any other position. Altuvae is clearly on the right side of that. It sure does. For what it's worth, I don't know that it means anything, but Jose Al Tuva is having a dreadful postseason. So I'll have to look at more into it. All right. Nestor Cortez left his start on Sunday with a left groin injury.

Hopefully it's not serious. Nothing that could affect the start of next year following his breakout season. Adra Semenez will not require offseason surgery after playing the final month with a non-displaced fracture in his left thumb. The Marlins have narrowed their managerial search to four candidates. which includes Joe Espada, Matt Quadrato, Skip Schumacher, and Schumacher, Shoemaker? I don't even remember. I know he used to be a player.

And then I think he was like a first base coach for somebody. You're making me down myself now, too. Is it Shoemaker or Schumacher? I don't know. We'll figure it out. The other one is Luis Rojas, who, how are the Mets interviewing Luis Rojas for their manager job? That is just kind of bonkers to me, Scott.

But we'll see what happens, I guess. Okay. Yeah. I mean, it is, look, it's the Marlins. I think, wasn't Don, I think Don Manningley was their longest tenured manager in their whole history. He was there for a while. Yeah. Did you find the skip pronunciation?

Because, man, I really want to know now. I'm not even remembering how to spell his name now. Oh, there it is. Okay, there's a C in there. Shoe. Schumacher. Yeah. Skip Schumacher.

Yes, that's right. Schumacher. All right. Yeah. And our last piece of news, not news at all, but Scott, I just wanted to ask you this question because Halloween's coming up this weekend. Do you have a costume? Will you be dressing up with the kids?

No. Ah, come on, Scott. Come on, man. Yeah, I didn't enjoy the dress-up part of Halloween even when I was a kid. So now that I am a grown-up, I did kind of dress up with them two years ago. you know, very modest costume. But no, not this year. All right.

Well, if anyone wants to see my costume, follow me on Twitter at Roto underscore Frank, and I'll tweet it out at some point. It's the Sopranos themed. And I'm doing a couple's outfit with my wife. So it should be very interesting. Scott's early 2023 first base rankings. Let's jump in the top five.

No surprises here, really. Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., Pete Alonzo, Matt Olson. I think with the top four, depending on if you want a younger player, maybe you could shuffle that around a little bit. You can move flat ahead of Paul Goldschmidt, but I think that four is set in stone.

It might change for certain people, but it makes sense to me. And I might do the cowardly thing and move Goldschmidt down when I see nobody else is taking them as early as I would. Stick to your guns. I'm going to try not to. Stick to your guns. Well, I mean, partly

because I think position scarcity is back to being a major consideration in fantasy and because we've talked about first base being possibly the deepest position I'm probably not drafted any of these four honestly. They're just so good, you know, Scott. They're so reliable too.

I understand, yeah, I mean, as I pointed out, even though first base is deep, there's a lot of like question marks. You could end up just getting a bad one, but you could probably fall back on somebody else if you do. And yeah, I'd just rather focus on third base, second base, early outfield, of course.

I mean, that's an insanely thin position too. So I'm probably, it probably, practically speaking for my own teams, it probably doesn't matter what order I rank these for. The only one who I think there's no case, to be number one of the four is Pete Alonzo. So I feel comfortable saying he'll be four for me among the four no matter what. All right, let's move into six through ten in the rankings,

and that includes Anthony Rizzo, Jose Ibrahimbrayu, Reese Hoskins, Christian Walker, and C.J. Cron. We have not talked about Anthony Rizzo yet. He has a player option for $16 million, which I believe he will opt out of. The Yankees like him quite a bit, so there is a very real chance that he'll be back with them, but he finished 85th overall.

He averaged 3.2 fantasy points per game really, really good in that format because he walks a lot, he makes contact, and he is back to hitting home runs. 32 homers tied a career high, which he lasted back in 2017. He does miss some time yearly. He has a, I would call it a chronic back condition at this point.

He's missed 16 or more games in each of his thrass past three full season, Scott. So lower batting average, some injury risk, But lots of pop and presumably in a good lineup if he goes back to the Yankees. Yeah, so since we haven't talked about him, clearly he didn't finish in the top 10 in Roto this past year, at least according to our formula, he definitely finished in the top 10 in points.

In terms of points per game, Anthony Rizzo was the fifth, or I'm sorry, well, leaving Joey Manessus out of it. Anthony Rizzo was the fifth best first baseman in points league on a per game basis. He doesn't strike out much. He's never struck out much that helps him in that format. And obviously, having a low batting average doesn't hurt as much in that format provided you're finding other ways to get on base. It's going to be interesting to see what happens with him in the offseason

because he is totally tailored to swing for Yankee Stadium. Fly ball rate way up. And that's why we saw the home runs go up for him. It's not going to work well in many other venues. So, you know, the best thing would be if Rizzo stayed at Yankee Stadium just because we have a better idea what to expect. But if he doesn't, if he doesn't and has the wherewithal to change his swing back to being more line drive oriented, I think he could be one of the big beneficiaries of the shift ban, which I'll say, I'll call it a shift band, just.

just to shorthand the discussion. I explained it already. He was, his numbers against the shift were especially bad. They've been especially bad the past couple years. And so obviously it stands to reason that he would benefit from being, it going away or at least being severely limited. If he's still hitting fly balls a ton, it's going to translate to a pretty low batting average either way.

But if he moves somewhere else, and can stop hitting so many fly balls. Then there's a chance he kind of returns to being the guy we saw more with the Cubs hitting 270-ish, with 25 home runs, something like that. The past three seasons, Anthony Rizzo has hit 217, 217, 218 against the shift. So just to put that in perspective, yeah, he has. And that's, you know, to put those batting averages in perspective, that's really low. And that's just what he did on ground balls.

So you're leaving out the strikeouts, you're leaving out the fly balls, just on ground balls alone. He's hit low 200s the past three years. So that's really, really low. All right, Scott, I have a very early prediction for 2023. Are you ready?

Yeah. Christian Walker will not be ranked inside of your top 12 first baseman by the time we get to March. The reason being is the players ranked just behind him in 11 through 15th, 15 because that group of five includes Nate Lowe, Vinnie Pass Quantino, Rowdy Tellez, Josh Bell, and Andrew Vaugh.

The two in particular here are the two up top, which Nate Lowe, I think we could find ways to talk ourselves into him and Vinny Pass Quantino, Scotty. Vinny P. What's not to like? 295 batting average, 832 OPS, more walks and strikeouts. He hits the ball hard. He hits lefties as a left-handed batterer. This is the one where there's going to be a lot of helium, Scott. Like, everybody's going to want Vinny Pass Quantino next year.

I mean, if that turns out to be so, I'm going to move them up for sure. I basically said that in my breakdown of the first base position. I'm always careful not to rank guys so high that, you know, I basically am telling people to reach for them. I want, I want, if it's somebody I like Vinny Pass Quantino, I want. to rank him as low as I can get away with ranking him and still probably get him. That's my goal in these rankings. So that's why I have him ranked 12th here behind Christian Walker, C.J. Crone, Nate Lowe. We'll see how it plays out.

But yes, of course, I love Vinnie Pasquantino. And we talked about it so many times over the course of the season, low strikeout rate, high quality of contact, walks a lot too, expected stats are great and the actual numbers ended up being pretty darn good let me see if I can pull up I remember from a certain date on Vinnie Pasquantino was just a monster even if you look at the numbers face value Scott

they're really really good as a rookie yeah so let me see here so his final 37 games Vinny Pasquantino had 362 with seven homers in a thousand nine OPS He ended up with only 10 home runs despite the quality of contact. This is something I noticed

expected home runs by Park on stat cast. And it seems like Royals hitters as a whole were burned by this. Michael Massey even more so. But rather than hitting 10 home runs, if any past Guantino hook played every game in Cincinnati, for instance,

it would have been 21. Most places it would have been about 15 instead of the 10 he hit. Now, he's still going to play in Kansas City next year, but maybe it played especially poorly for power. In 2020, maybe he can do most of his home run damage on the road. I can definitely see Vinny Pasquantito being a huge breakout player in 2023. That is the early consensus, Scott.

And looking at first base ADP, again, four drafts. Just going to keep prefacing everything with that. He is the sixth first baseman off the board. He's going inside the top 100 picks. So he is going to be a very popular one for, next season. 13 through 15 includes Roddy Tellez,

as I mentioned, Josh Bell and Andrew Vaughn. Telez got big breakout year, 35 homers, 89 RBI. I know you have some optimism that the batting

average could be on the rise without the shift. Josh Bell hit 266 with 17 homers struggled mightily once he got traded to San Diego. He hits us 192 with a 587 OPS with the Padres.

He's an unrestricted free agent, so we'll see where he winds up. And Andrew Vaughn was quietly, very good. 271, batting average, 17 homers, improved the strikeout rate. Want to see him put the ball in the air a little bit more, but he's steadily improving. He's got prospect pedigree. I think there's a decent amount to like with Andrew Vaughn.

Scott, quick thoughts on any or all three, Telez, Bell, Andrew Vaughan. Yeah, Telez, the actual batting average was 219. The expected batting average was 252. his numbers against the shift were also pretty bad. So that's why I have hope. Again, my shorthand that I talked about earlier when you see a player underperformance, expected batting average by that much,

there's a good chance it has to do with the shift. And I think that's the case. For Teles, does that mean he could be a 35 home run guy again? I mean, obviously his value for 2023 is more dependent on that than anything having to do with the shift. but he does impact the ball like a power hitter. Keeps the strikeout rate pretty low himself. So I feel, kind of my initial impulse was to rank Tellez even higher than this.

I just don't know that I need to. It's a strange stretch here. Really after, so Reese Hoskins, I had eighth. Then it was Christian Walker, C.J. Cron, Nate Lowe, Vinie Pasquantino, Rowdy, Tellez. It's very hard to sort out that group, I feel like, because that's, where you see sort of these one-hit wonders, these unproven types. C.J. Cron and, well, C.J. Cron has his own question marks.

So a strange group. And then right after them, I have Josh Bell, as you mentioned, who I'm kind of getting some Josh Bell fatigue now, I think. Others, I've probably been there for a couple years. he was so good early on but his second half was just dreadful and he finished with only 17 home runs

I mean I think he's capable of more but I think that's about the point 14th here in my first base rankings where I'm kind of just settling rather than taking somebody I really like so Andrew Vaughn is in that group as well even though he does maybe have some untapped upside. There's not a lot in the underlying data that gets me excited about Andrew Vaughn.

All right. Let's wrap up with this final group of 5. 16 through 20 for first base next season. Brandon Drury, Jose Miranda, Thai France, Tristan Kossis, and Joey two hits. Joey Meneses, who was just phenomenal down the stretch. He hit 324, 13 homers, a 930 OPS in 56 games with the nationals. We'll see if he can come anywhere close to repeating that next year with the team. Scott, we do have a comment on YouTube asking about Thai France, a little eyeball emoji there asking about him. And you have him ranked pretty low.

Why is that? He hit 340 over the first two months. And so I think that kind of stands out in everybody's memory. That's when everybody was paying the most attention. 340, Thai France, he's a stud, made the all-star team. He hit 240 the rest of the way. 240 over the final two-thirds of the season. And he only hit 18 home runs.

It's not like he delivers the power numbers of a first baseman either. And he's not going to be second base eligible next year. It's just first base. So he deserves to be drafted, certainly in Roto leagues, with extra corner infield spot to fill. But it's not going to be a standout at this position. I feel pretty comfortable saying. All right.

The other names here again. Anything else you'd like to add? It's got Miranda, Kossis, Joey Menesis, in this mix. I'm really excited about Casas. I could be talked into ranking him higher. You know, kind of hard to tell sometimes where to rank the guy with so little to cite statistically. But the little bit he played,

he showed the play discipline translated to the majors, he showed good opposite field power. This is a guy who got compared to Freddie Freeman sometimes in the minors, and I expect he's going to take over first base for the Red Sox. So, you know, I'm pretty enthusiastic about drafting him. More so than the three ahead of him, Ty, France, Jose Miranda, Brande, Drury, who are kind of just, they're kind of just filling out the list for me. Okay.

I could see with Miranda, he's just so young and performed so well in the minors that it wouldn't surprise me if he takes another step where he hits 270 with 20 to 25 home runs. I think that would wind up being a pretty useful. player for fantasy purposes. And he's third base eligible, which is more useful. Yeah, for sure. And Drury, who I have right ahead of him, is second and third base eligible, I believe. Yeah.

So you're more likely to draft those two at those positions, which is part of the reason I have them ranked where I do. And Drury is a free agent if I remember correctly. So we'll have to see where he winds up. He pretty much did all of his damage in Cincinnati. That's part of the reason I'm not enthusiastic about him for 2023, unless he resigns with Cincinnati. All right.

Any changes in head-to-head points leagues? Nate Lowe drops a few spots because the walk rate has plummeted a little bit this past season. Vinny Pass Quantino and Josh Bell move up a bit because of their great plate discipline. Coming up on Wednesday nights live stream, Thursday morning's podcast, we'll do first base prospects to know, plus dynasty, buy lows and sell highs at the position. If you have a question, you could send it in. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. That's the letter I.

fantasy baseball at cbsi.com, but we are going to wrap there. First big base is in the books. For Scott, I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching. Fantasy baseball today. We'll be back again on Thursday. Bye-bye.