Fantasy Baseball Today - First Pitch Arizona Recap & Latest Offseason Updates! (11/12 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: November 12, 2025

First Pitch Arizona was awesome once again (3:44)! ... Pirates prospects Esmerlyn Valdez and Tony Blanco Jr. both impressed in the AFL Home Run Derby (8:30). ... Prospect hounds seem split on Konnor Griffin (12:30). ... Emmanuel Clase has been indicted on federal charges (18:10). ... News (23:33): The Rays declined Pete Fairbanks' option. ... The Blue Jays are not committing to Jeff Hoffman as their closer (34:56). ... Let's get back to what we learned at FPAZ, starting with velocity concerns (42:45). ... What takeaways did we have during the NFBC panel (53:21)? ... Will Jordan Lawlar get traded this offseason (1:07:03)? Subscribe to our YouTube channel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://sptfy.com/QiKv⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow our FBT team on Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@FBTPod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CPTowers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CBSScottWhite⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@Roto_Frank⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join our Facebook group at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. Hello, welcome into fantasy baseball today on Wednesday. November 12th, I am Frank Sample joined by Chris Towers today on the show. We had a first pitch Arizona recap what we learned at panels, games, in drafts, just talking to people, random conversations.

We picked up some fun stuff. Lots of news to discuss since last week as well. There is a lot going on. So we will get into all of that. Chris, we are back. And of course, we go from 80 degree weather to 30 degree weather. How you doing? Yeah, we got a nice little cold front here in New York City right after we were out in Arizona, where we were like,

hanging out by the pool and stuff. So, you know, it's an adjustment. I feel a little dried out from Arizona. And then obviously it's cold here. So that makes me feel dry. It's just, I don't know. But okay, can I ask you a question? Yeah, let's do it.

Is this, would you say this is a Christmas sweater that I'm wearing? It feels Christmas. It's definitely a wintry. It's got like little, but like, I was at a concert before the show and a woman came up to me. It was like, it's too early for a Christmas sweater. And I was like, I don't know. It's just a cold weather sweater. It gives off Christmas vibes.

It feels like something you would see in like home alone. Yeah, I get like I wear it around Christmas, but it's cold. You know, I thought it was like there were flurries this morning when I was walking my dog. I thought this was appropriate, but this woman did not agree. She thought I was breaking some sort of protocol by wearing a Christmas sweater in November. You know what? It is cold. We got someone in the comments saying it's an ugly sweater, not Christmas.

Thanks, I guess. I thought, I like it. I don't know. Let's jump in. First pitch to Arizona was awesome. Big thanks to baseball H.Q. Brent Hershey and Ray Murphy. They put on a fantastic event.

Congrats to them. It was their 30th anniversary of the F-pass here. If you're watching, you see the hat that I'm wearing this, they gave this out to everyone who was there. 30th anniversary. It's always a great weekend. You spend time with a fan. fantasy baseball community, always meeting new people as well. It's just very welcoming, chopping it up.

If you love fantasy baseball and you've never gone, I just cannot recommend it enough. So please. I had a handful of listeners. You don't have to be a person who writes about fantasy baseball or podcasts about it. We had a couple of listeners come up and say hi. That's always extremely cool. It makes me feel very awkward. I don't know about you.

Just like, because I'm nobody. Like, who am I? and people think it's cool to meet me and it's like guys, it's not cool to meet me at all. I'm nobody. But it's great to have support. We recorded the live show that was in your feeds yesterday. That was a ton of fun.

Shouts to Scott for answering his phone. I thought there was a zero percent chance that when you called Scott at 10 p.m. Without any notice that he would actually answer. So that was delightful that we actually got Scott on the phone. Yeah. Eating his kids Halloween candy on a Friday night. I absolutely love that.

So we did a bunch of other just random activities too, Chris. We hit the batting cage. Sick, 73 mile per hour exit velocity for your boy right here. 68 for me. Just, you know what? They were like bouncy balls. So it wasn't a true. I feel like you could have gotten that up to like 82.

With a real baseball. Maybe, maybe. Speaking of baseballs, We went to the home run derby. The AFL home run derby. No. We did not hit them as hard as Tony Blanco did. No, he hit one 122.9 miles per hour.

We'll talk about that. Off a child. Just a little bit. Ooh, yeah, that was. It hit right off a kid's kneecap. It was not a great team. He seemed okay, but it caught him on the fly. It was a tough scene.

But one of the cooler parts of this event was two people amongst our group got a ball in the home run derby. while, you know, patrolling the outfield or I guess, you know, the behind the outfield, the stands there. I believe they called it a berm. The berm. Ariel Cohen, no doubt. Of course, obviously.

Definitely had to get one. And. There it is. Had to do it. But also, Chris, you know what you don't have. This comes with a terrible story, which I will tell. Yeah, you don't have the ball that bounced out of your glove. So it was incredible.

It was, um, Was it Parks Harbor? I think it was Ethan Petrie. Yeah, it was Ethan Petrie, who was like the only one really pulling them down the line. That's where we were. And Frank gets one off the bounce. Like hits in front of him. He shoves several children out of the way to get it.

That's not true. That's not true. And it's like, yeah, good job, Frank. And then the very next ball is hit right to him. And we're like all celebrating. And Frank's like, oh, there's another one. And he tracks it down, gets it right in his glove, like smalls in the sandlot. And what happened, Frank?

And it just bounced out. It hit you in the hand. It hit me right in the palm. I was just dumbfounded that. You were injured. You were injured. Two baseballs back to back came exactly at me. After the entire event, we had no baseballs come right down the left field line.

And then boom, two in a row. I caught one in the balance. The one I should catch. in the glove, smacked me in the palm, I dropped it, no excuse. I was so embarrassed. You have an excuse. No, no excuse. You had a little hand injury, you had a blister from the batting cages.

These things are not. And that was why. Not great, not great. It hit you right on the blister. The last part of this story, which I will tell, which, you know, some people listening, you probably won't appreciate this, but multiple kids asked me for the ball. This is the first ball I've ever caught at a baseball game ever in my life. and it wasn't even a game.

It was a home run derby. So I didn't give it to the kids. I would have let the kids bully me into it. It is what it is. You know what? I said, if I get another one, I'll give it to you. If I caught that second one, I would have gave him the ball. But it was the first ball I ever got.

Like, come on, I can't give that up. Yeah. They got a lot more time. Exactly. To get balls. That was also part of my life. Like, dude, you got your whole life ahead of you. You'll get a ball.

But yeah, that's how it went. You are both a stronger and smaller person than me. Because I definitely would have let some child bully me into giving them the ball. Let's start there with the AFL home run derby. There's not really much to take away from this from a fantasy perspective, but there were two Pirates prospects here competing in the finals. One who I think will have much more projection and perhaps value in fantasy for years to come than the other one. And the two names here are Smerlin Valdez and Tony Blanco Jr.

They squared off in the finals. Blanco actually wound up winning this thing. He hit 1 102.9 miles per hour off the bat. 122. 1. What did I say? 102. 102. Yeah, 122.9 miles per hour. But I wanted to use this time to highlight what Valdez has done in the NFL because he has been one of the standout players and is giving himself, I guess, more of the name, more shine,

and kind of now putting himself in the top 100 prospect conversation. So in 19 games in the NFL hitting 368. homeers, 27 RBI, 19 walks to 12 strikeouts, and a 1355 OPS, played 123 games in the minors this year, hit 286, 26 homers, 896 OPS, played 51 games at AA as well. So he's somebody who could make an impact at some point in 2026. Maybe it's like later on in the season, maybe it's even early 2027. But as Merlin Valdez, Chris, has really kind of put his name on the map here in the Arizona Fall League. Yeah, he struggled when he first got called up to AA. He hit 182 in his first 10 games, but he ended up settling in pretty nicely.

Hit 260, a 126 WRC plus at AA as a 21-year-old. That's pretty solid. And he didn't really tap into the power at that level, but there is significant power here. You know, routinely posting exit velocities above 110, 115. We saw a little bit of that power on the home run derby. He got to the final. lost to his teammate, but 26 homers last season, a respectable 25% strikeout right. There are still some real concerns about the hit tool, but for a Pirates franchise that's pretty desperate for some impact bats, he looks like he might have the potential to be one.

And his teammate, Tony Blanco Jr., wound up winning the Arizona Fall League Home Run Derby here. He's played 13 games in the AFL, hitting 250 with two homers, 809 OPS, a 31% strikeout rate. He's very young, only 20 years old, has only played 28 games at A ball. So this is, I guess, pretty aggressive for him to be in the Arizona Fall League.

But even at A ball, it was a near 34% strikeout rate. Fangraphs has Blanco with 80 grade raw power and a 30 grade potential hit tool. So as impressive as this showing was, he kind of feels like a guy who will shine in the home run derby, but perhaps not much else. Yeah, if you're a big fan of Yer Kenzie Noel, Tony Blanc, is it, that's the name, right? The guy on the, the giant guy on the Guardians. Sean Kinsey, yes.

Yeah, friend Milraeis. He's like a mountain, like he's 20 years old. He's 6'7, 243 pounds. He hits the ball a mile. He was the only guy at, I can't remember, whatever the park in Mesa is. I can't remember the name of it, but where the home run derby was, where, He was the only one who hit the building behind where we were hanging out and left field, which was about, I don't know, it must have been at least 400 plus.

They said 430. It felt like 4.50. Yeah, it felt like he hit that a long way. And he did it multiple times. Yeah, really impressive show from him to win that. But obviously, he's much more raw than S. Merlin Valdez. But Valdez is a name to keep an eye on as he matriculates through the upper minors.

Speaking of Pirates, prospects, a name that came up a lot this past weekend. He has not been playing in the Arizona Fall League, arguably the top prospect and all baseball. Connor Griffin, it felt like whoever I talked to, Chris, and I talked to a few people about this. It was James Anderson, the Welsh, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com. They all seem pretty split on what to expect from Connor Griffin for next year, whether it's, you know, he comes to an agreement on an extension. and he's up on opening day,

which would be very aggressive, mind you. You know, he's only played at AA so far, but he was also the minor league player of the year. Or the Pirates just hold him down until August or September and maintain that prospect eligibility for 2027. And the thing is, he could come up in April of 2027 and be 20 years old.

Which is crazy. Like that is, that's the thing about, he doesn't turn 20, 20 until the end of April of next year. So if he makes the majors in 2027, he's still well ahead of schedule. But, you know, Scott and I talked about this on the, we did like way too early bold predictions back in September. And one of mine was Connor Griffin is on the Pirates in April. It might have been on opening day, but sometime in April for sure.

And my thought process basically they can't keep screwing around. Like there was a report from Bob Nightingale, I think, the other day saying that the pirates aren't even going to listen on Paul Skeens, nor should they. It would be ridiculous if the pirates decided to trade Paul Schenzienz right now. On the other hand, this is his last minimum salary contract year. He's going to start making real money next year. So as bad as the pirates are, well, they're not going to be any better with Paul Skeen's making. $10 million or whatever it's going to be in 2027 unless they find

some way to get significant contributions from other players and one way that the pirates could prove to their fan base that they actually care about winning games would be to promote Connor Griffin aggressively and

hopefully that comes with an extension a long-term deal that you know kind of gets them on that Jackson Churio timeline but there's no guarantees there, of course. The biggest name out in the NFL right now is Tiger's prospect, Kevin McGonigal. We spoke about him on the live podcast we did out in Arizona.

Again, that's in your feed. But we saw him hit an RBI triple, triple. And then also he smacked a two-run, home run. And that one sounded really good off the bat. Unfortunately, we didn't get the exit velocity for that in that game. The early ADP for McGonigal is 276.2. He hasn't played above AA, but it seems like there is more of a real. chance that he is actually up on opening day for the Tigers. I think their off season might

kind of determine whether that happens too because we've, they've been linked to Alex Bregman. They tried for him last off season. They have been linked to Bobuchette. So if they signed one of those guys, you know, maybe it gives him an excuse to kind of keep McGonigle down for a little bit longer. But if he tears it up in spring training, perhaps he is just up on opening day for next season. While we're talking about prospects, drop a comment. here on YouTube or let us know in the live chat, which prospect you think will debut first in 2026. And after you do that, hit the like button and subscribe to the channel

for a bunch of off-season fantasy baseball content. Let's take a break. We'll get to a bunch of news right after this. Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. Lots of news to go over since I think the last time we spoke about news. It was last Tuesday night. So there has a lot. It has been a lot that has happened since then.

Emmanuel Class A and Luis Ortiz were indicted on multiple federal charges related to bets on pitches thrown in MLB games. Both pitchers were paid to intentionally throw balls as betters could wager on a single pitch being a ball or a strike. Then we learned afterwards just recently, you know, in the last couple days, that prominent U.S. sportsbooks are now establishing a nationwide $200 betting limit on baseball wagers centered on individual pitches. and prohibiting those bets from being used in parlay.

So I guess that's the aftermath, the fallout here from a betting perspective, if you care about that side of things. But Chris, I haven't seen anything cemented or solidified here regarding these two. But my guess is they will not be pitching at least next season and perhaps not ever again. Yeah, never again. Yeah. This is it's the Cardinal sin. of professional baseball and it has been for about 106 years if I'm remembering the the timeline

correctly 1919 I think is the black sock scandal um this is a a hard red line for professional sports and especially major league baseball and I don't know it it's hard to understand how players get into situations like this and it's hard to wrap your head around it's really frustrating to see an incredible player like emmanuel class a throw his career away over what on the surface appears to be a pretty trivial amount of money though i would guess further investigation would reveal that there was a lot more than just a few thousand dollars at stake that's been reported um It's a real bummer. It's an existential problem for professional sports that, you know, I know there's a lot of monitoring of this stuff.

And, you know, hopefully we start to see these situations go away as players realize what the risks are. But obviously, we've seen situations in basketball. We've seen a couple of players in the NFL be suspended for gambling and now it's hitting Major League Baseball. in a more high profile away there was a there's a utility player last year whose name i'm blanking on who was suspended for life um it's it's really bad and you just hope it's not any more widespread than than what's been reported so far but you kind of fear that it will be yeah i mean anytime you bring into question the integrity of the game in any sport it's, you know, why are we watching?

Why are we devoting so much of our life and our attention and playing fantasy and betting on these games? Whatever you're doing, right? It's just. And look, you can say it's only one pitch, but it's not. Every pitch impacts every other pitch. You know, like that's just the way it works. So yeah, it's a real bummer. And I hope there's not more coming.

Yeah. With Class A gone, Cade Smith looks like he is here to stay. Early NFBC ADP is 63.6. He is the fourth reliever being drafted right now. Last year, 293 ERA, a one whip on the nose, 12.7K per nine, 16 saves. Obviously, the Guardians have had a pretty long history of just awesome closers, and it kind of feels like Kate Smith is stepping into that now as well. I think he's just about as good as any reliever in baseball. I believe he has the lowest FIP in baseball over the past two seasons. And I actually don't think it's particularly close. Cade Smith is a really, really good pitcher. We saw it last year. There were some bumps in the road around the midseason point. But once he locked in, he was really as good as anyone.

Yeah, he has, that's wild. Over the course of the last two seasons, Kate Smith has a 167 FIP. That is the best in baseball. Second best is Mason Miller at 220. So more than a half run better. And if you're more of an ERA kind of person, well, only 10 pitchers have a better ERA over the past two seasons,

minimum 100 innings than Cade Smith's 242 mark. He is, I think, every bit as good as Emanuel class. Obviously, a very different type of pitcher, much more of a strikeout pitcher, which means he's probably a little better for fantasy than Emmanuel Class A if he can continue to be this dominant. So, yeah, should be one of the first few pitchers at the relief pitcher position off the board,

which is good because it's not a great position right now. No, no, there's a lot in flux right now, including the raise who declined Pete Fairbanks's $11 million club option, making him a free agent. and my guess, you know, the Rays have done this before. It feels like a bullpen by committee, at least for now, unless somebody emerges. There's Griffin Jacks, who they traded for at the deadline last year from the Twins. He is an extremely talented reliever in his own right.

Edwin Ussetha, who finished the season really strong in the second half, a 178 ERA 12.7K per 9. You know, I was talking to a few people this weekend, and they think there's a chance the Rays could try to transition Griffin Jax back into being a starter. So if they did that, there's, there's one less name in the mix. But the way things are kind of set up right now, Chris, I would lean Griffin Jacks and kind of Usa to maybe splitting saves there. Yeah, there's been a little bit of speculation about Griffin Jacks, as you mentioned, moving to the rotation. There was a little bit last off season as well. He's got a really robust pitch mix for a reliever. I think it's like four pitches that he throws at least 10% of the time, which you don't see a lot from relievers. So the race may opt to do that.

If not, yeah, I think he'll absolutely be in that conversation. And you say to great in the second half. And more what we expected. Because remember, this time last year, I think the default assumption for fantasy players was Pete Fairbanks is going to keep, isn't it going to keep that job. It's Ed when you say this job. He was so dominant. And then that didn't happen. And you said it really struggle in the first half.

But I still think you say that can be a closer caliber. reliever. The Dodgers picked up Max Muncie's $10 million club option. He finished with 19 home runs and 846 OPS in 100 games. We know the story. He started wearing glasses April 30th. From that point forward, he was much better. Hit all 19 of his homers with a $9.69 OPS. But he does come with significant injury risk has played just 53% of his games over the past two years. Again, that's Max Muncie with the Dodgers. The raise picked up Brandon Lows, $11.5 million option. He hit 256 with 31 homers, 83 RBI, and 134 games. That was his most games played since 2021.

So like Muncie, we have a pretty extensive injury history here for Lowe. Just the second time, he's exceeded 110 games in his career. The Padres exercised for Moulogiano's $6.5 million option, and he performed really well overall. 281 batting average, 24 homers, seven steals, and 132 games. I know he was really good in the second half of 2024 with the Atlanta Braves as well. But Scott recently pointed this out, Luriano in 26 games in Petco Park last year, which will be his home park in 2026, hit 218 with one homer and a 576 OPS. So it's a really

small sample size. I don't want to put too much on it, but he has not performed well there. Yeah, it's obviously one of the tougher parks and baseball for hitters. It's especially tough for, you know, we remember Juan Soto's time there. Really tough for hitters who have more all-fields power than real pull power. Luriano did pull 22% of his batted balls in the air last season, so I don't know how much of a concern that should be for him, but it's something to keep in mind as we move forward. However, I would be surprised.

I haven't seen Luriano's price, but let's just, yeah, 248.7. one thing I've noticed we're only 30 drafts in but there are a handful of players that like I expected to be out on at price. Ramon Loreano is one. Matthew Boyd was another one where I was just like I don't really buy what they did last season or I don't buy it entirely and then I look at the price and it's like oh it doesn't matter. Ramon Loreano is a 12th round pick and a 12th, no, a 16th round pick and a 12th round pick and a

12 team format. Matthew Boyd's 233.4. I was writing about Matthew Boyd today. I was like, ah, I'm not, I'm not in on Matthew Boyd. He's going to be a bust. And then it turns out, I guess this is just what happens in 2025. You can't really, uh, you can't really convince the fantasy baseball crowd of anything anymore. Everyone's too sharp. Yeah. So, um, those guys seem like decent values actually. Yeah, I noticed that while doing a draft this weekend, that's right. I'm drafting here in November. Perhaps we'll talk about that a little bit later on, but yeah, there was just... Frank, Frank wrote something.

Yeah, how about that? I, you know, I wasn't feeling great yesterday, you know, four days of being out in the sun and, you know, having a couple, having a couple drinks and stuff. And, yeah, and then flying back, I was so beat up yesterday. I said, look, guys, we can't podcast today. I'll just, I'll write a story about this draft that I did, and so I did. So check it out on the website. I love that that's your response. I'm not feeling great. I'm tired. I'm beat up. Let me write. It's easier than podcasting.

I guess, yeah. I don't agree with that personally, but to each their own. Well, Chris, if you want, you can make the rundown next week for the podcast. I don't want to do that. That's a lot harder than. That sounds like a lot of writing. Yeah, exactly. GM meetings are going on this week. We're getting some updates here. D-Backs GM, Mike Hazen, said that trading. Kutel Marte is unlikely to happen this offseason. Braves President Alex Anthopoulos said Spencer Swellenbach is now pain-free

following his fractured right elbow. In 17 starts, he had a 309 ERA.97 whip. Just under a strikeout per inning, his velocity was up one mile per hour on the fastball. Early 80P, 81.4 as the SP 19. Does that sound appropriate for Spencer Schwellenbach? This is a guy I really don't have a good sense of what to do with. I ranked him 12th, which is probably too aggressive. So I'll probably be moving that.

That sounds like you would like him at SP19. But yeah, when I think about it, when I actually sit down and think about it, I don't feel great about that. Part of it is just this is not a guy who has any real track record outside of 2024 of being able to throw a lot of innings as an effective starting pitcher. He threw 165, I think, in 2024 across the majors and minors. And he's a converted shortstop. He doesn't have a lot of innings on his arm.

So, you know, it's kind of a it doesn't mean he can't do it type of thing. But then he comes back out in 2025. He was very good. There's a lot to like about him, even if he's not necessarily. an elite strikeout pitcher. I think he could be. He's throwing harder last year and I it felt like his arm just couldn't handle it. And so I think I do have to move him down just because it's not so much a question of talent as it is can he hold up. And that's a that's a real question here. Tommy Edmund will undergo right ankle surgery next week. The Dodgers expect Edmund to be ready

around the start of spring training. That's a situation to monitor there. Met's president, David Stern, said prospect Carson Benj will enter spring training with a chance to make the opening day roster. He's turning 23 in January. He was a first round pick in 2024. This past season hit 281, 15 homers, 22 steals, 857 OPS. He did get up to 24 games at AAA.

He struggled mightily there, but the exit velocities that we have at AAA, It's like 92 miles per hour on average. So he's got a little pop. He's got some speed. Really, really interesting prospect here, Carson Bench. Yeah, good approach at the plate. Even at AAA where he struggled, it was mostly batting average.

He had a 188 babit, but only an 18% strikeout rate. Like you said, he hit the ball hard. He can make stuff happen on the bases. So I think, you know, there were some prospect people I follow. who thought Carson Benj should have just been the Mets center fielder down the stretch, despite his struggles at AAA. So would not be surprised at all if they gave him that opportunity. And this is a team that does need a real legit center fielder.

So I think he's going to have a chance to play and could be, I want to say Scott has comped him to Brandon Nimmo, actually. And I want to say I've seen that comp elsewhere. as well. So I feel like he has more speed than Nimmo. Maybe. He's still 22 bases last year, but maybe there's more underlying foot speed. But Nimmo's been a decent base stealer that past couple of years.

He's tapped into a little more power. But I think the takeaway is Benj is probably not a superstar, but could be a very solid all-around player. 13 players received the qualifying offer, including Kyle Tucker, Kyle Swarber, Bobichette, Framber Valdez, Dylan Cis, Edwin Diaz, Ranger Suarez, Zach Allen, Shotee Imanaga,

Michael King, Trent Grisham, Glaver Torres, and Brandon Woodruff. So that is a one-year $22 million offer. They have until November 18th to decide on that.

And the only ones I thought maybe could accept this were Grisham, Imanaga, Glaibor Torres. We did get a report earlier on Tuesday night. John Heyman wrote

that Imanaga and Grisham are expected to decline the qualifying offer. So making both of those guys free agents to go anywhere they go, anywhere they want. I wouldn't be totally shocked if Gallin and Woodruff took the qualifying offer as kind of an effectively a pillow contract to try to build their value up for 2027,

although there is the concern about a looming lockout in 2027 and what that will mean for team budgets and free agency. So there also might be the other way where players are, willing to take a little less money overall in the long term to lock in a guarantee. So I don't know. I'm very interested to see what happens with Gallin, Imanaga, Woodruff, and Michael King, especially in free agency, because we've got the one season with Michael King. I was writing about him as well.

We've seen one time where he's been able to stay healthy as a starting pitcher, and he was amazing. And then he fell apart almost immediately. and he's 31. So Michael King is a fascinating player in a lot of ways for 2027. We do have a war. 26. Yeah.

Don't jump ahead too far, Chris. Come on. We have awards that were handed out, rookie of the year. Nick Kurtz, unanimous winner in the American League. Drake Baldwin, a close finish over Kate Horton in the NL.

And then manager of the year, we got Pat Murphy in the NL and Stephen Vote in the AL. Both winners go back to back. How about that? Pretty interesting stuff there. Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins said the Blue Jays are committed to use, are not committed, excuse me, to using Jeff Hoffman as their primary closer in 2026. Of course, gave up a game tie home run in game seven of the World Series. Atkins mentioned Jimmy Garcia and Louis Varland as potential options for saves and did not rule out signing somebody this off season.

So if you're doing early drafts, just be careful with Jeff Hoffman. We just don't know if he's going to definitely be the closer for next season. Roman Anthony will have a normal offseason after dealing with a left oblique strain in September. The early ADP, it's pretty high on Roman Anthony, 52.9 as the 12th outfielder off the board going right between Wyatt Langford and Brent Rooker. Marcel O'Meyer, who underwent wrist surgery in August, should be fully recovered well ahead of spring training. Kyle Hendricks and David Fletcher are retiring from baseball. And it sounds like as of now we have at least three Japanese players who are confirmed to be posted. offseason, 25-year-old slugger

Munataka Morokami, 29-year-old corner infielder, Kazima Okamoto, and 27-year-old starting pitcher, Tatsuya Imai. And just wanted to mention with Imai, we were talking to or heard this somewhere, Inosaris from the Athletic said that if Imai comes over, signs with the MLB team,

that he would be a top 30 starting pitcher for him in fantasy, which I thought was pretty interesting, right? Like, Enosaris, one of the smartest dudes out there, seems to really like this Tatsuya IMAI pitcher. Yeah, and this is based on, you know, the pitch shape and stuff characteristics that IMAI showed over in Japan. But, I mean, it's worth noting he had a 192 ERA last season,

throwing 163 innings. Now, as we say, with all players in Japan right now, the ERA is not quite as important. as it seems at first glance, he was only sixth in the Pacific League in ERA. That's still pretty good, but it's worth keeping in mind. A 192 ERA over there is not the same thing as a 192 ERA here because the league as a whole had an ERA of 304. That's pretty good.

That's still very good. but yeah uh japan is in the midst of a crazy deadball era but 9.8k per 9 2.5 walks per 9 control's been an issue throughout his career but it's something that's gotten better every season for him i um he throws in the the mid to high 90s seems to have good secondaries so that's a guy i'm very interested in diving a little deeper on 27 years old uh murakami i'm surprised at how aggressive the contract projections have been for him, given some real question marks about the hit tool and his ability to catch up to velocity as well.

I think the stat is he hit under 100 against pitches over 100 miles an hour in 2020, sorry, over 93 miles per hour. Yeah. In 2023. You see a lot less velocity in Japan. And I think he only played, like 55 games or 69 games last season. It was a bounce back season.

He has the record for a Japanese-born player for single-season home runs in Japan. I believe that was a Sada Haro record that he broke. Big power, I think a best-case scenario could be like a Pia-Lonzo type for Murakami, but that's a little bit of a stretch right now. So this is one I'm going to kind of let the major league teams tell me, how they feel about Mutataka Murakami.

Yeah, I've been starting to dig into some of these Japanese players coming over to this all-season. And there are real questions with the zone contact for Munataka-Morakami. I think he's running like 74% zone contact rates in Japan. And again, he's going to see... Rafael Devers is one of the only players you see in that range. And obviously, Raphael Devers is a pretty big outlier. I think the video I was watching did show that Otani had similar.

his own context when he was in Japan. He was also a little bit younger. And obviously he just improved over the year. So it's an interesting situation. I think the way you put it as good is, you know, let's see what kind of contract he gets and how much money he's given this offseason. One thing I want to say before I move on on that topic, though, is players tend to do better the more they see velocity.

And so seeing less velocity in Japan, you're not going to train for it as much. I would not expect that to be as big of a concern when he gets to the majors because he'll just see, he'll naturally see more 95 mile an hour fastballs. So, you know, relative to other major leaguers, it might still be a concern. But I don't think he will struggle as much on 93 plus mile per hour fastballs

as he did when he was in Japan because he'll just see more of them. The plan, by the way, is to have somebody who specifically covers these players and covers Japanese baseball come on to the podcast soon. and kind of break these players down in depth and let us know what we need to know about them before the 2026 season. Let's take our final break.

When we return, a couple of other things we learned out at first pitch Arizona. We'll talk about that right after this. Welcome back in Fantasy at Baseball today. Let's take a look back at what we learned this weekend out at first pitch, Arizona. And the first thing here, Chris, concern for pitchers the year after a velocity bump.

So we heard this from Dave McDonald, an NFBC player in the avoiding starting pitcher landmines panel while we were there. We also heard something similar from the legend, Ron Chandler. He said there will be an excerpt in the upcoming baseball forecaster this year from a doctor who said the biggest predictor of future injury for a pitcher was a velocity bump of two plus miles per hour. Now, we don't really see velocity bumps that massive year over year. There's at least one name we appoint to, and that's Cam Schlittler, so we'll get to that.

But you and I both looked at this, and really the biggest jumps in fastball velocity that we saw from 24 to 25 came from Hunter Green, Max Fried, Shane Boz, Emerson, Hancock. I don't think that really matters too much. Christopher Sanchez, I think, is a pretty interesting one, too. It's not a four-team fastball, it's a sinker. But his velocity has jumped a lot from 2023 to 2025. So I guess what do you make of this assertion? And does it make you concerned about it? any of those pitchers. It is important to remember that injury risk is not the only risk. And that is something that I think gets a little bit lost in these kinds of discussions. And you'll see the like screenshot of the top 10 in velocity and someone will scratch everybody who got hurt out. And it's like nine of the top 10 or whatever.

There was a couple years ago that that was going around. But you'll see something similar this offseason, I'm sure. And fair. You know, like that's, that's reasonable. On the other hand, a list of the 10 hardest throwing starting pitchers in baseball, it's not going to be a list of the 10 best starting pitchers in baseball. It's not going to be that different from a list of the 10 best starting pitchers in baseball. Like, it is as much as, I don't know, grumpy people on baseball broadcasts might want to say,

velocity is not everything, but it's a lot. It matters. There's a reason why every single organization in baseball except for maybe the Rockies is training all their pitchers to throw hard. And there's a reason we hear about dozens of players going to drive line and tread athletics every offseason. And it's because if you can throw harder, it makes everything else better. You know, maybe your command suffers. And then that, you know, and Christopher Sanchez's case in particular, I remember him open. talking about in 2023 throwing softer to focus on command rather than velocity.

And last season, you know, maybe it was he was able to put both together, you know, because we've seen that creep up since then. There are injury concern. Ryan Weathers is a good example of a guy we were really excited about when we saw that velocity jump up and the price remained reasonable enough that even though he missed a lot of time. I think it was still a viable bet, but you do have to keep in mind if there's a velocity jump for who's going to be a popular breakout candidate next year. Gosh. Kyle Bradish.

If he comes out next spring throwing a mile and a half per hour harder, you know, maybe you take that into account because that's a guy that, one, is going to be pretty expensive. And two, probably doesn't need much more velocity. So I think when you're looking at velocity jumps and getting excited about them for fantasy, it should be more about fringe guys that you're hoping can break out and guys that actually need that velocity. I don't want to see Chase Burns throwing harder next year. That does nothing for me with Chase Burns because my only concern with Chase Burns is can he stay healthy? I think he's going to be an absolute superstar just the way he is. Um, so, you know, that is, I think the, the way to look at it is one, it's not the only risk,

but it is a risk factor for sure and a significant one. Um, and two, you want to care more about guys who need velocity when you're talking about pushing them up. And I don't, I don't think I'm going to move guys down if they're throwing harder, but it's definitely, you know, when you're talking about max freed, throwing 1.9. mile per hour on his fastball harder than he did the year before. He has a pretty lengthy history of minor forearm and elbow injuries. But the thing about forearm and elbow injuries is they're only minor until they're not. Yeah.

And, you know, the year after that big velocity jump, you know, maybe if you're ranking Max Fried in that 4 to 14 range or whatever we've talked a lot about, maybe this is a good reason to put Max freed behind Jacob de Grom or Hunter Brown if you weren't already doing that. I almost said Cole Regens, but the guy who missed 120 innings last year with a shoulder injury, maybe not the best example. Or Hunter Green, I was also going to say, again, maybe not the best example because his velocity jumped up a ton last year too. Yeah, I mean, that's exactly like what you just said about Chase Burns is Hunter Green. we know that you can already succeed throwing 97 miles per hour.

You don't have to throw 99 on average, right? We saw it two years ago. You know, you were still one of the best pitchers in baseball when you're healthy, throwing 97-ish, sitting 97-98. And then this year he was like 99-100. So, and especially for someone like Hunter Green, you know, he has that history of some shoulder stuff, some elbow stuff too. So it does worry me a little bit about Hunter Green and Max Fried.

And again, I'll bring up the name, Cam Schlittler. He averaged 95 miles per hour in the minors in 2024. It was 96.6.6 in 2025 in the minor. So you already have that 1.6 mile per hour jump from one year to the next. And then by the time he gets to the majors, he was averaging 98. So we're talking about a three mile per hour jump by the end of the season. And in his start against the Red Sox, it was like 99 miles per hour. So he is a bigger dude.

6, 6, 225, like, you know, maybe, I don't know that it's just, I don't think it's like a blanket statement to use this for every single pitcher, you know, there are guys that are just maybe more durable, they're, you know, kind of bigger, stockier, stronger dudes that maybe they could just hold up with this velocity. But, uh, honestly, we just haven't seen enough from Cam Schlittler to know if he can hold up with that level of velocity. Yeah, and it's, every player is different. And we try to generalize and we try to, um you know look for ranges of outcomes that everyone fits in but you know what some guys just don't fit into those range of outcomes some guys are outliers some guys are show hey otani uh you shouldn't bet

on outliers but outliers exist and it's possible the camp slither will end up being one of those outliers because of his you know size and and maybe 99 for him as equivalent to 96 for someone else. But I think that's the other thing to keep in mind is everybody's threshold is different. And Max Fried throwing 95 might be putting more stress on his arm than Hunter Green throwing 99 just because they're different and they're capable of different things. Or, you know, when you see a guy's velocity go down, we did this with Jacob de Grom last year where it's like, well, can he be as effective? Is this on purpose? In his case, it was clearly on purpose, but it did also limit his effectiveness. He was still awesome. Yeah. I don't want it to,

but like Jacob de Grom's fastball was not the same pitch that it was before his velocity went down. So there's no, it would be great if there were easy answers. If there were easy answers, there wouldn't be people subscribing to this podcast. This game would be a lot easier if this stuff was easy. So it's just to say that I think it would be a mistake to say, I'm, I'm taking the 10 players who had the biggest velocity jump from last season. I'm taking them off my board because that's not how it works and every player is different. But you do have to account for that risk. And I think about somebody like Spencer Schwellenbach, who we've talked about a little earlier.

He had about a mile per hour velocity jump. He was, I think, in the top like 15 or 20, top 20 among all pitchers, probably top 10 among starters. Turns out he couldn't hold up to it. Yeah. His arm broke. as a result of it. So that's one that, you know, if he's going back out there this spring

and throwing 97 again instead of 95-96, it might be a little off on Spencer Schwellenbach. Yeah. And you mentioned Cole Reagan's a little bit earlier too. He kind of, what spurred this breakout was going to Tread athletics and getting that velocity up. And it was up the previous two years before this.

He had a fantastic season in 2024, but then what do you know? He misses most of the season in 25 with a shoulder strain. And is that due to just the increased velocity in the previous years? Probably. It might.

I feel like we're in such a great, we're in such a gray area right now, Chris. It's like for some pitchers, we want more velocity. For some pitchers, we want less velocity. You know, it's tough. Cole Reagan's, you don't know Cole Reagan's name if he's not throwing 96, 97. Yeah.

Like, you didn't, you didn't know his name until he put on the mess. mask or whatever the, you know, like that's, that's the thing is that like Cole Reagan's, Cole Reagan's career exists because of his ability to generate the velocity that he does from his arm slot from the left side. And could he be a major league pitcher at 94? Maybe. I don't think he'd be the same guy. So look, if you want to know whether velocity matters, ask pitchers. There's a reason they're all chasing it. Yeah. Let's be a lot. On to the NFBC panel that I watched while I was out there.

It featured Toby, aka Batflip Crazy. Again, these are all great players in the NFBC. Really smart dudes. Mike Mager and Stephen Goodwin. Mike Mager has won back-to-back auction overall championships in the NFBC. And I believe they calculated, what are the chances of him actually pulling that off? One in 32,000. So, yeah, I would say he's pretty good at what he does.

Planning to have him on sometime this off-season two, just to talk some auction strategy and stuff just because I feel like he's one of, if not the best auction player in the world right now. Hopefully he'll give us the tips. Well, you know what? He gave out a bunch here on this panel and I am going to reveal them right now.

So on all three of his auction championship teams, he spent $104 on pitching. So that's 40% of his budget on pitching, 60% on hitting. I feel like people ask about what your hitter, pitch, or split is, you know, dividing up your 200, $60 and, you know, all right, how much do you spend on hitting? How much do you spend on pitching? Some people spend more attention to it than others, but I thought it was interesting that all

three of his teams turned out the exact same way is actually leaning a little bit heavier on the pitching side because more often than not the average you see is kind of like 70-30, maybe 65-35, but 60-40 tells me that Mike Mager is pretty aggressive when it comes to at least bidding on pitching in auctions. What I'd love to see is a breakdown of how that's, divvied up. Is it... I think he, on the team

that he won the championship, he had Scoobel and Blake's... He had Scoobel, yeah. Yeah. Which, that's fun. That he had Blake Snell

who threw, what, 55 innings? Yeah, he also, his highest price hitter was Yordon Alvarez at $31, and he won the overall. It's...

There was that quote that I said the other day from, um, God, let me see if I can find it. Alexander Chase from pitcher list. You win your leagues

by sending your lineups, you lose your drafts, by valuing players as if you are not allowed to. We always talk like, oh, he could be a league loser. Well, no, there's no such thing. You can overcome anything if you're good enough and you find the right replacements. But that's, yeah, having scoobble and then spending 104,

that tells me that he still invested quite a bit on the rest of his pitching staff. You know, it wasn't not necessarily just the Stars or Scrubs approach to pitcher. Yeah, and you're probably wondering, how did this guy win an overall auction championship? He'd been on Alvarez, he bit on Blake Snell. Well, he had Cal Raleigh. He had George Springer, and he picked up Geraldo Perdomo.

So all of those things will help quite a bit when winning a championship like that. That's about $130 of pure profit on those three guys. He also pointed out many of the top saves options this past season were $10 or less in the auction. So guys like Carlos Estevez, 42 saves, Robert Suarez, 40 saves. Remember, everybody was off to warres. They wanted nothing to do with him. He was $10 or less and provided 40 saves this year. A roll as Chapman, 32 saves.

Trevor McGill, 30 saves. Kenley Jansen, 29 saves. I'm not sure how sticky this is year over year, Chris, but it just goes to show that you can live in the second or third tier in terms of closers in a 12-team or even 15-team Roto League and still perform quite well. I'm extremely interested to see how the closer marks. market's going to shake out this year.

Obviously, we have the early drafts, but specifically with closers, that's a very different marketplace than you're going to see later in NFBC drafts, but also especially in your home leagues because NFBC drafts tend to push closers up. They're 15 team leagues. They're deeper formats, so the replacement level is not nearly as high. And when you're drafting at this time of year, November, I don't know, half the league. We don't know who their closure is going to be next year, right?

More than maybe more right now. So I know Andres Munoz is the Mariners closer. I know Edwin-Diaz is someone's closer. Probably the Mets, if not the Mets, probably another good team. It's probably not going to be a bad team that signs him to a $70 million contract. So those guys all tend to get pushed up in these drafts. You will see that too. If you check out the draft that I did and the results that I put on the,

website. There were, I think, three different closures that went in the third round of a 15-team league. That's just because there is so much uncertainty and you need closers still, even when you're drafting in November. So that's one of the things you have to pay up for, is that. While talking about closers, I did just want to quickly run through because I took these notes for a panel I did while I was out there, season-long trends. And we were talking about saves. I looked into all the new managers this all season to see. Try to get a feel of what their tendency might be for bullpen usage moving forward.

So Walt Weiss went to the Braves, mostly had a dedicated closer when he was with the Rockies, and he was the bench coach for the Braves under Brian Snitker, where they pretty much just use one closer. So I feel good about that one. Blake Butera is the Nationals manager. He was previously the Ray's Senior Director of Player Development. First-time manager,

I think it's pretty tough to say. We don't really have an idea of how Blake Butera is going to use his bullpen. Derek Shelton is now the manager of the Twins. Mostly used one main closer when he was with the Pirates. So not that I think the Twins have a pitcher who's viable enough to be that person, but maybe they sign a cheap veteran or something like that. Craig Albernaz, Orioles manager. He was most recently with Stephen Vote in Cleveland,

where they used one dedicated closer. Before that, Albernaz was with the Giants while Gabe Capler was there. Gabe Capler was annoying for a lot of things in fantasy, but he did typically just use one closer. So I'm hoping that Craig Albernaz in Baltimore just kind of picks up what he learned from other stops and uses one closer. Kurt Suzuki is the Angels manager for one season at least. And he was a special assistant to the Angels GM from 23 before being hired as their manager. this offseason during that time they had Carlos Estevez and Kenley Jansen.

Kurt Suzuki, former player, he's also caught a lot of great closures in his career. We don't really have an idea, but I would lean towards them using one guy. They signed Robert Stevenson a couple of years ago and seems like he's finally healthy, so perhaps they use him as the closer.

Skip Schumacher, Chris, you know this from his days with the Marlins. He was pretty much a dedicated closer kind of guy. He is now the manager of the Rangers. Of course, they need a reliever good enough to use as the closer. And I think they're going to be pretty aggressive this offseason. Craig Stammon, so he joined the Padres this weekend as their manager.

He also has been with the team since 2024 as an assistant to the major league coaching staff and baseball operations department. He's a former reliever. I don't think he was ever really a closer or picked up many saves. He might have picked up a few here and there. He has Mason Miller at his disposal. We don't really know what Mason Miller's role is going to be yet. With that being said, Chris, speaking to some people this weekend,

some smart people who might be in the know on the situation, they seem to very convince that Mason Miller will remain a reliever next season. I understand why they would want to move him to starting pitcher. One, to just justify that price they paid for him, although that's not necessarily the way they should look at it. And then, two, it's just, uh, uh, Joe, Musgrove coming back from, you had Tommy John, right? Either Tommy John or the internal brace, but it was definitely major elbow surgery.

He's coming back from having not pitched since like the summer of 2024. That's your number two. You Darvish out for the year. Yeah, Randy Vasquez might be the number three. Oh. So like they need starting pitching because Michael King's a free agent. Maybe they bring him back. Dylan sees as a free agent.

Doesn't seem like that's going to happen. This is a team that there are real concerns. about this team's financial situation right now. There are some ownership questions. I think there's like an ongoing fight over who's going to be in control of that team long term. So they did throw out that Adrian Moryone might be used as a starter as well. So that's an option. I would rather they try that than try Mason Miller just because Miller has shown no ability to stay healthy.

He had thrown, it was something like 30 combined. innings as a professional over three seasons before he got called up even in in 2023 when he tried to be a starter remember he sprained his elbow I think or had a forearm something like that while starting they eventually moved him to the bullpen yeah I I think it would be a mistake to try to use him as a starter I just I don't as be like he's built like a an NFL free safety he is massive yeah I don't think he can hold up I would love to be proven wrong and maybe they're feeling themselves after the Michael King experience and then they

take that chance. But I think it would be a mistake. I don't think it's worth the risk with a pitcher this gifted. The last new manager this offseason is Tony Vitello, who signed with the Giants. He is a first-time manager at the Major League level. He's coming from the University of Tennessee where it looks like he used multiple players to get saves. To be honest, Chris, I don't watch or follow a lot of college baseball.

also this might just be normal to use a bunch of relievers to get saves and close out games. So I don't think we have any idea with somebody like Tony Vitello. But for some of those names, I have a pretty good inkling of how they're going to use their bullpen and hopefully a dedicated closer for next season.

I had a few other things here from this NFBC panel I wanted to mention at bat's a key indicator on the offensive side. So it was just, they pointed out the correlation between maximizing at bats per week and your chances of performing better in the five offensive categories. And it's just a lot of those are outside of batting average. It's all volume-based. So you really do need to maximize that. And it's avoiding injuries, avoiding platoons, maximizing games played on the schedule within the week.

You know, looking at teams that have seven games or, you know, six righties on the schedule for left-handed bads. is really kind of being diligent with playing time and things like that. He said he was much more likely to be $30 on a player in Fab than $200 or $300. So that's if you play in $1,000 Fab League, if you play in 100, you know, it's three versus 30. So just kind of taking your stabs on, you know, I guess some veteran or middling bats throughout the course of the season, rather than going after the flashy prospect or, you know, the would-be closer early on in the season. that's going to go for way too much money. So I thought that was interesting.

And then the last point here, just an emphasis and a focus on the ratio stats, which I feel like I bring up every offseason, Chris, and then I just never take my own advice. It's just within the draft and within an auction, if you play in Roto or Headset Categories League, just really, really paying attention to ERA whip and batting average as much as possible.

Well, and it makes sense because it might seem counterintuitive because two of the things you talked about were focus on your ratios and maximize your counting stats, right? And those things can be at odds, but they don't have to be because I think you're looking at prioritizing ratios in drafts, which is your, that is your key capital for building your team or your draft picks or your, your fat, your auction values or whatever. Your most important asset is a first round pick. Your second is your second most and so on.

and I don't know how much fab you would have to like if I if I before the season I told you I will give you an extra thousand dollars in fab and you give me your second round pick I don't think you take that right there's no way no what what round would you take an extra thal like I think you gotta go pretty deep in the draft yeah I don't I don't know it's a good question so that that's your because because your fab is inherent uncertainty if these guys guys were sure things. Even Nick Kurtz was not a sure thing despite what we saw. That guy was worth $300 in fat. Right. Nick Kurtz might have been worth $1,000 in fat, frankly. Yeah. But there's Jack Hagg Leone certainly wasn't and they were very similar prospects coming up and we valued them very similarly when they came up. So that is all to say that your draft picks should be where you establish your floors for your ratios. And as you're going through the season, as you're managing, as you're playing the free agent

wire, setting your lineups, that's where you start to pick and choose, hey, I make an extra four or five plate appearances from this guy this week. I'll start him. That's, I think, the way to think about it is you can manage your counting stats, but your ratios need to be solid before you worry about that. A couple other random things that we picked up this weekend just while. talking to people. I was going to bring up the Mason Miller thing. Some smart people think he's going to remain a reliever. I mentioned that already. Lots of speculation that Jordan Lawler could be moved

for pitching. So the debacks looking to improve their rotation, maybe even a bullpen. I mean, I would have to think that Lowler's value is still high enough to get at least a decent starting pitcher in return. With that being said, Chris, I saw you a tweet that Jordan Lawler has a 40% strikeout rate in the Dominican Winter League. So that doesn't say. sound great. It's not good. He's still been hugely productive at AAA. Uh, prospect folks still really like him, but he's got a hit at some point at the major league level. We haven't seen it yet. It's been very small sample size. The, the Dominican Winter League, when I saw it today was 56 plate appearances, very small sample size, but it's still, I'd feel better about him if he wasn't

struggling against a very low level of competition, certainly. Yeah. I threw this one out there, to the Welsh and it seemed to me like he didn't think it was a possibility. Maybe Jordan Lawler's star has kind of fallen low enough where he can't headline a package like this, but do you think a package headlined around Jordan Lawler for Joe Ryan is a possibility or has his star kind of dimmed to the point where that's not realistic? It's hard to say because when you go on Twitter and see people suggesting packages for Joe Ryan, It's all, nobody seems to value this dude too much. And oftentimes these are fans of other teams making these offers.

So take that with a, I don't know, a dump truck full assault. But it's still like, I don't know if people realize how good Joe Ryan is. And then I don't know what the, the market is for him. I think Lawler Plus for Ryan seems fine. But yeah, I could also see, you know, maybe there's something. that the scouts just really don't like about Lawler. I could see that too. Yeah.

All right, well, we are going to wrap there. I did want to, I wanted to touch on that draft that I did a little bit. But again, you can go to the website, CBSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball. I wrote about picks that surprised me. I have the draft board there. I also wrote up some decisions that I had within the draft. So again, you can check that out on the site.

Plus tomorrow's podcast, we are doing a recap of our first mock draft. So we'll talk more about drafts then. For Chris, I am. I'm Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify, and we will be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye. Mount Podcasts.