Fantasy Baseball Today - First-Year Player Draft FYPD Rankings, Picks & Strategy! (1/19 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 19, 2023

Get to know the top prospects in this year’s first-year player drafts. Chris Towers and Chris Welsh talk prospect-focused strategy (4:30) and then break down the two Japanese import players (20:40) who may make an impact in 2023. Then they talk about the top players from the 2022 MLB draft (39:40), with some high-upside young guys at the top and a few guys who may make their presence known in 2023. Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. Let's think about the future. We're talking about first-year player drafts on fantasy baseball today.

I'm Chris Towers here with Chris Welsh. and we're going to go through Chris Welch's. I was just going to say Chris, and I realize that just gets confusing, especially if you don't recognize people's voices. I'm Chris Towers. That's Chris Welsh. We're going to go through Chris Welsh's first year player draft rankings,

and this is a, my sense at least, is this is a pretty fascinating group of players, one that fantasy players should be very excited about. Obviously, we've got the pedigree group of guys, the guys whose dad's played in Major League Baseball. believe in your top 30 there are three in the top well definitely in the top five three sons of former baseball professional baseball players i'm not sure of any of the rest of these guys although one of them is the younger brother of a current major league baseball player as well so am i

am i forgetting anyone else in this uh yeah i'm looking through this because you've got jones holiday and collier yeah and then you elijah green's dad i believe was a was in the ns It's like a tight end or something. Yeah, tight end in the NFL. I'm trying to see if anybody is jumping out to me. And then you've got one of the J-15 guys whose brother plays in the minor leagues right now, not at the major. So you have that. Oh, you have Justin Crawford, who is Carl Crawford's son.

So there's our four. Wow, that makes me feel really old. Yeah, I know. And then you've got Jay C. Young, who I think you're referring to his brothers in the majors. So you've got four, at least four major league ties. And then we've got a couple minor league tie and then some football. We got some football action.

There you go. So a lot of names you should be pretty familiar with already. And we're going to go through. I've got some high level questions that I want to talk about before we talk about the top prospects in this year, first year player draft. And I guess we'll start with this is mostly, you know, we're mostly thinking about dynasty perspectives. You know, redraft leagues very rarely have much to worry about when it comes to the first year player drafts. But there are a couple names that you should know if you play in a redraft that we'll talk about. but I guess we'll start with this.

Should your team's current standing impact how you approach a first year player draft, which is basically to say the players that you have now, should that really make a difference in how you approach the guys that you're drafting? My personal opinion is most likely not, but I also think it's like situational. So usually the top three or four pending the class in this instance specifically, the top three, four, no, I don't care. I'm not adjusting.

If I was, you would see Kodai Senga if he does qualify, which by the way, he's not on this list, which if we want to insert, we absolutely can because I know he's in it. He would be five on this list. And because I realized after I said this to you, I didn't have Yoshida or him on there, though he qualifies in some instances. If you did care about proximity and if I was putting that in here, Seng it would be number one. And I think there will be people that will only consider proximity and you'll have him number one. because maybe this year, which is different than in some previous years, where the top end of classes, sometimes you get college bats. Specifically, I'm trying to mind.

I think it was a 2019 class where you had Adley, you had Andrew Vaughn. You had Witt, who was a little bit, Whit Jr., obviously, was a little bit older of a high school prospect, who was going to move a little bit more. And you had guys that had a little bit closer proximity. This year's tougher because the top four core in my eyes, they're all high school players and they're all relatively far away. but this is all to say in dynasties,

I'm looking for the best values and the closest value change in my eyes is just the proximity of Senga and I would let someone else make that decision. But yeah, at the end of the day, I think it's like the top end, no, in the middle and stuff, yeah, maybe, you know, if I'm like the six pick

and I'm a top three team in the league and I have a choice between a high school kid and someone that can't help me, maybe that would be a Yoshita. If I could decide between Yoshida or Cam Collier, I think Cam Collier is going to be a star, but maybe I would care a little bit more since like I'm a top three team and I'm having the ability to get a six pick. So I don't have like a full roundabout answer.

But if I had to give you one, I'd be like, no, I want to take the best talent when drafting first year player in dynasties. Just as a general question for dynasty, how long is the window that you're thinking about when it comes to dynasty? Like, you know, this is more of a general dynasty question, less a first year player draft. But I think it's also relevant here because like let's say you've got a. a, I don't know, a 27-year-old who, you know, in three or four years, he might start to decline or the decline could come in the next couple of seasons versus, you know, a 24-year-old who you would think has a little more runway. Is that? Do you think five years down the line when you're thinking about your dynasty leagues? You want to be a surprise. Maybe this is going to surprise you. I actually think in three-year terms. That's kind of where I live because of a multitude of things. Obviously, these leagues can disband, you know, so like I don't, I really. don't like I've had literally was I've been in a cup I was in an industry one which was wow this one it lasted three years and it was an industry of 20 teams and it was a it's a it's

actually poetic that it ended because it's such a prime example of how dynasties are I don't personally like to subscribe to like oh yeah I'm just like way into the future way into the future and that doesn't deter me from high school guys or anything like that in my drafting because also you have to think about um not only just talent but the trade value that some of these guys are going to go, yes, Drew Jones is a high school guy. Yes, we're going to talk about them. There's an injury. But at the same time, the talent is at such a high level that all he needs to do is come

out and do what we relatively expect, not even defy expectations. And the guy is going to be able to stick as a top 10 prospect all year. There's value in that in trades, even if over three years you don't actually get his return. So getting back to exactly what you were talking about, you're probably going to see guys that are a little bit older, a little bit higher on my dynasty list compared to something because I do think there's some people out there that go in the five-year terms. A guy like Jacob de Grom, yes, there's injury issues out there, but Jacob de Grom, just a high level of insanity of what he can do when he's on the field.

I probably have him higher in Dynasty than other people. And that's what's so wild about dynasties when you do drafts too. It's like you can have, let's say it's a 12 team. You can have like five people that are heavy prospects. You could have five people that are like middle-line people. And then you can have those two proximity people. and you're like, well, you know, every dynasty ranker's got Justin Verlander because he's, you know, 400 years old. They've got him in the hundreds. And then those two guys that care about now in a dynasty all the sudden, bam, they snap up Justin Verlander on the fourth round of a dynasty. And you're like, whoa, what's going on? So that's why I feel like the three year window. It's just a little bit better because I also want to play win now in dynasties.

Yeah, I'm, I'm looking at, I was able to find Scott's top dynasty rankings from 2018. And this is this is just a high. how much things change and how much uncertainty there is. But, you know, I think it's really interesting that you look at like 16, 17, and 18 in his rankings that I'm looking at John Carlos Stanton, Freddie Freeman, Anthony Riser. They were all 28 years old. They were all present day, pretty much elite players. And it's fascinating how much their values have changed. Freddie Freeman has, his value hasn't changed much at all in a redraft context, at least.

He's basically been a fringe first round pick the entire time. But John Carlos Stanton, who was the same age and was arguably a better player at the time coming off, I think the 2018 was the MVP season. You know, he has had a really up and down a few years. And Anthony Rizzo is, you know, a fine first base starter. But I think he's probably pretty fringe top 12 at this point, you know, even coming off a bounce back season. And those three guys were ranked ahead of Jose Ramirez, who was at the time coming off a, you know, I think pretty bad. season and I think there was a lot of uncertainty about what the future held for him and they were all ranked behind Cody Bellinger. So it's just to say that like we're talking about five like that's a five year

window of guys who are all 22 20 you know 22 to 28 which is the prime of players careers and a lot changes. And that's especially true of prospects who have not, you know, the further you are away from the major league level. You know, there's kind of the I think about the the analogy. I like to go with my like weird science analogies for sports. And I think about the great filter theory. Have you heard about this? It's like it's the idea that like we're talking about why don't we, why aren't there aliens, right?

Why haven't, there's hundreds of trillions of stars out there? Why haven't we been visited by any aliens so far? And the idea is that like, you know, you do, I think it's the Fermi paradox. You start doing the math on how many advanced civilizations there should be. And, you know, you start to think like there are. filters for every step of evolution for a species. And that's kind of how it is for prospects, right? Like, you know, you got to make it out of the water, right? And then you got to grow a backbone and be able to survive on land and you got to, and all these things that can go wrong. And, you know,

that's not, so, you know, it's kind of the same thing for prospects. You know, Drew Jones is incredible, you know, 18 year old player, but he hasn't played a professional game yet. So I like that they're microorganisms. I like that prospects are essentially microorganisms that we're hoping they can just be put in a climate and in a spot where they can actually grow. And, you know, hey, listen, there are some organizations that are planets that are closer to a sun and habitable life. And then there's some organizations like the pirates and maybe the angels that are a little bit further away, a little bit colder. And maybe those microorganisms can't exactly exist. You know, one thing I want to point out about what you said too, I think it's actually going to maybe get lost by some people with everything that you were bringing in with those players.

Your point was, you know, here's these three interesting players. and then look, Jose Ramirez was behind them. And then look, Bellinger was in front of them. One thing that I think you should also focus on is look at Freddie Freeman. Freddie Freeman is a perfect example also that kind of gets mixed into like, eh, we're silly here and we're silly here. But Freddie Freeman is a player that over those five years has held that value. It's one of those players that would kind of get,

he was still in a good spot where he was young enough, where you would have him ranked high. But he is almost maintaining his dynasty value to this day. he's a prime example of where I would probably have a player because he's at, what is it, 33 years old right now, 33 and a half, that he's a bit older. He's not exactly the dynasty plug that you would try to get because of his age, but he's maintained that value.

So if I think in a three-year window, Freddie Freeman is more valuable to me than the five-year window because 38 years old, it's going to come back down. But do I still think I can get one to two more elite years and then maybe a really solid year on the third out of Freddie Freeman, possibly even maintaining? I kind of think I do, because he's consistent.

So like I still have Freddie Freeman as a top 25 dynasty guy at an older age. And I think that could throw people off because dynasty, I know we can do first year player, but dynasty is like very focused on age. But the first year player to tie this in is actually in my eyes a really important reason why I'm very comfortable in drafting more win now teams. And I'm not going to take all 35 year olds or anything like that. But there's a few key pieces I would go with because every year you can replenish. We can always replenish.

and look at this class. I actually think this class is a really strong class for late pitchers, or if you're in a points league, pitchers that are going to drop. I think the whole first round looks pretty solid. It's deep. And this is a really great way to replenish if you stacked in a little bit older of players. You missed out on the Wanda Franco's.

Maybe you missed out on Bobby Witt or anything like that. You can always do this every year and get back through. Next year's class is going to be killer. And this year's class is pretty killer too. Yeah. And so that gets to a couple of the questions. I'll go with the first one. Do you have a, when you're talking about prospects and especially at this point, do you have a preference for hitter versus pitchers?

I think there's an obvious answer here, but I want to get your thoughts. Yeah, hitter. I'm always going to, I mean, there's the whole, like, there's no such thing as a pitching prospect mantra. That mantra does not exist in points league. So that's why we do have to kind of define it because if you're in a points league, it's actually kind of a rougher year, if we're being honest about it, because the pitching is so brought back. And there's a decent amount of high school pitching. And then there's some injuries on some college pitchers. which you could actually maybe look at it on the invert where if you could trade down out of the top

in and then you could stack in a couple of these pitchers. There's guys that I like late. But yeah, like overall, here's another example. I do on my show Prospect 1, I do these prospect ADP drafts where we draft like all these guys and I create an ADP out of it and we do all these different drafts so we can get data out of it. And my team and many other industry guys because I'll have industry and a bunch of, you know, listeners that are hardcore dynasty players do it. And what you'll see is commonly of 15 team rosters, somewhere between three and five pitchers, max. So maximum 33% of the roster is made up of pitchers in category-based leagues. So I'm probably going to live off of that. And mine is usually sitting around three because I think there's

incredible late pitching value, whether it's first year player or normal drafts. And I want to go with high-end talent. Obviously league pending some of your guys' values. Maybe you play in the league where pitching is incredibly valuable and people hold on really tight, then sure, I would adjust to that, but hitting for me. Yeah, and then note that I saw from baseball prospectus, the following pitchers have undergone Tommy John surgery in the last year. Dylan Lesko, Kate Horton, Landon Sims, Connor prelip, Reggie Crawford, and Peyton Pallet.

That's not counting Kumar Rocker, who had the shoulder issue that blew up the physical with the Mets. And then you have Carson Wisenhunt, who was suspended for the 2022 season. And so this is a- I think Hunter Barko too maybe missed in there. I don't know if you said him.

Yeah, this might have been an older. I think this was an older story too. This was from like back in the summer. So there might have been injuries since then. And that's all to say the point that you made earlier about, you know, potentially finding guys later on who might increase in value from this point on. You know,

those pitchers, they're relatively, people are going to be relatively down on them right now. But, you know, part of the way I look at it. it's like every pitcher's going to have Tommy John surgery at some point. That's an exaggeration, but it's not much of an exaggeration. I call it the Walker Bueller effect.

Walker Bueller was an incredible pitcher in college in Vanderbilt would have been seen as a really high value guy. Had Tommy John surgery moved into, I believe it was like the compensatory round and then ends up just flying and becomes a big value. I don't think there's like a Walker Bueller in this out of all these injuries, especially if you want to comp into college. But there are a couple guys, like you said, there are guys we'll probably talk about. when we get to the second round, a couple guys that I think their value is pushed down because of these injuries and the high school guys are as well. I mean, maybe what would have been thought of as the number one pitcher in this class as a high school kid who had Tommy John. So his value got pushed down. He was still drafted high, but fantasy values don't have them. I don't even think most consensus have a pitcher in the top at least 12 or top 15 of first year player ranks. All right. And then how do you compare this year's first year player graph group to a typical season? Better or worse. Hmm.

Okay. I think it's a little bit better. Let me refresh my... Like the 2019 class, I think, is so unique. And also, if I'm not just dashing it to a draft class, that year also had Jason Dominguez. So, I mean, you had... Yeah. Rutchman, Witt, Jason Dominguez, Andrew Vaughn.

I mean, Andrew Vaughn was seen as like the number one out of all those guys. You know, kind of looking back and trying to pair my eyes back to it, this is actually kind of similar to last year. class where we had a whole bunch of short stops. We actually had like a big core four of Marcella Mayer, Jordan Lawler, Cleo Watson and Brady House. And that's kind of similar to here where it's big four high school again.

I think this round is better. Of those four, the only one that really looks like they're moving in a huge direction is Jordan Lawler at this point, which is kind of funny because some people were pushing him down. So, you know, if you were like, if you were grading this out and,

you know, a hundred is the median value. I think that 2000 and 21, you know, or if we graded into probably better to like letter scoring, you know, letter grading like 2000, 2019 was like a, maybe an A and even A. I would say this is like a a minus to a strong B plus. Last year was probably like a B. The year before that really looks like it might even be less with Torkelson out the top. But yeah, I think this is getting close to comparison, probably the second best class I can think of off the top of my head over the last like five years. years.

How much? We just had the international free agent signing, not deadline, but the opening of the international free agent signing period a couple of days ago, how much should I care about those types of guys compared to the rest of the first year player draft? Minimum probably more than ever. Like that's, that's like a really highly contested issue in prospect stuff right now. Last year, stunk the value. Roderick Arias was a kid with the Yankees way down.

Christian Vicaro way down the year before that you had the right. Robert Puaussons with the A's way down. I mean, the last two or three classes have been a real big disappointment. And I think you're seeing the effects of it. There are two guys at the top that are on my top 30. Ethan Salas, who's brothers with Jose Salas, and Felon Selston, who in many eyes has seen as like the top guy with the Seattle Mariners. Those are Padres and Mariners.

Those guys three or four years ago, I think you'd be looking at like most prospect people ranking them in the top, like 50 to 75 of overall prospects, overall. overall. Now everybody's very scared. They're very far off. We're all timid about the process in general that I don't care if I'd be fine if people just didn't even think about them, especially you guys will know your leagues better. Guys like Roderick Arias were released in some places. If I'm giving you context here, Scott White's League, 2014 points, I'm probably going to have very minimal interest in a guy that I got to wait four or five years in this huge big 2014 league where we only carry 10 prospects. But I very much

like Ethan Salas, very, very much, even though he's a catcher. I think he is one of the more polished guys that we've seen in years, and Fellin-Selston kind of in that same spot. So those are the two I would focus on, if you're thinking about like the top 40 first-year player prospects, but, you know, adjust accordingly to how you guys value, and if you're willing to kind of sit on a guy for a while, and thinking about how this entire process has gone lately.

All right. How many of this year's players for the first-year player, pool are in your top 50 overall prospects. And for context, Frank or Scott's top 100 prospects are out on CBSSports.com slash fantasy. And he's got Drew Johnson at 15 overall, Jackson Holiday at 16, Tamar Johnson at 30, Elijah Green 32 and Brooks Lee 34. Those are the only guys from this year's prospect pool who are in his top 50.

Okay. So he's got five. I have seven. And the two guys that are missing. out of the top 50 of his that I have. Well, no, because I have Brooks Lee. Brooksley actually is the end. The two guys that I have that he's missing are Zach Netto with the Angels who was literally,

there was no prospect that was given a more aggressive assignment in the whole land. He made it to AA last year. Yeah, made up to AA like before anybody. Angels were crazy hyper aggressive on him. And I think he's insanely talented. And then also, again, I'm thinking, you know, in my, in my prospect, my prospect ranks, are a little bit different than my dynasty. The dynasty is telling you guys, like, here's my three-year window.

Prospects is a kind of bigger overall, like, worldview. And I love Cam Collier. Cam Collier put up some big, hard hit numbers. He was out here playing a complex level, over 90. Actually, this is a baseball America thing. Jeff Ponce put out, I think he had to run a 91 average exit velocity. He reclassified one of the youngest guys in the class. I really like Cam Collier a lot.

And there are some people that want to push him into the top. top even two or three in this class. So add Netto and Cam Collier, and that is what my top 50 is with all of the same players that Scott has. All right. Let's talk about the old guys before we get to your rankings, because the old guys don't really, you didn't include them in the top 30 that you meant.

You sent me, although we can, you know, kind of slot them in. But the old guys are the two Japanese signies from this offseason. Kodai Senka, who signed a five-year deal with the Mets, and Masataka Yoshita, who was an outfielder for the Red Sox,

I believe he also signed a five-year deal. Senga is 30, Yoshida is 29. And we'll talk about Senga first. He is, I think, Scott's 64th-ranked prospect. He's a prospect. He's 30 years old. He's pitched professionally for eight years or nine years now. And he has been a really, really good pitcher in Japan.

He led the league in strikeouts a couple years ago. Has hit 102 with his fastball, sits in the high 90s, has a splitter that I've seen described as one of it's a splitter slash forkball that I've seen described as one of the best pitches in the world that's his go-to pitch he's hit 100 with the fastball he has a kind of hard slider slash cutter as well K rate has fallen the past few seasons he's only thrown more than 150 innings twice in his career they have different rotations in Japan they usually throw six-man rotations so you know innings totals tend to be a little deflated there I think they also only play like 130 games. in their season. What do you expect from him in 2023? And obviously, you know, because he's 30, what you expect in 2020, is kind of what you expect, right? Yeah, I think he's tough.

And I mentioned, you know, if you guys wanted to know, I think he would lie somewhere between, I'd be cool. I'd be cool if someone like was like, hey, I want to take him at three, between three and five. I would probably slot him at five going with the other prospects. This is a 30-year-old pitcher translation to the major league baseball. can be maybe a little bit tougher. The trend has been like early success, struggles on the second half when the league kind of catches up,

and how dominant are these pitchers going to be? Is this really going to be our next you, Darvish? Or is this going to be kind of a flash in the pan of solid, of solid, solid with Senga? So I think he's somewhere in that spot, but he is older and, you know, kind of projecting over the three-year marker makes him a little bit more valuable. But he would be between five and three on my list. And the only reason, just throwing back out here, I personally, if a guy sends a major league, contract, I kind of think like in any dynasty or keeper, let's just take them off. Let's not have them involved in the first year player because he sent a major league contract. Let's put him back in

the player pool. And I know that could give an extra benefit to the first guy who was the first pick. If they're the first pick in the first year player and then, you know, whatever disbursement redraft of players. But they're also the worst team in the league. I don't think there's any real problem with that. If they got Drew Jones and Senga, they really stunk it up. So do that. But I love the repertoire. I love the high, uh, the high fastball that he's got with. secondaries. I'm hoping it's going to connect. He's on a great context of a team, by the way, getting to work with Verlander and Max Scherzger. I don't know if you could like ask for anything better. So I think there's a lot of positives in there. If this were a points league,

I totally go with him number one if you wanted. And if you care about the now, if somehow you're a team that is like somewhere between like, you know, the top five in your league and you had the first overall pick. Yeah, why would you not take Senga? Sure. You're going to get three, four, hopefully really solid years out of it. I just don't know if we're looking at like an elite. elite pitcher. Yeah. So that's why I'm a little bit timid about it. And I just really,

really like those high school bats at the top in Jones and Elijah Green and Jackson Holiday. And then Masataka Yoshita, who is an outfielder, he's likely to hit, you know, near the top of the lineup for their Boston Red Sox, possibly lead off for them. And he has been an on-base machine. I mean, the play discipline,

when you look at the numbers for Yoshita, the play discipline is what stands out. I think he has stupid. Over the three, last three seasons, he has twice as more than twice as many, he walks as strikeouts. More than 120 more walks than strikeouts for his career. Does not run much.

So he'll get on base, but not much of a base stealer. I think he had four steals last season. He's had some pop over the past couple of seasons, but that's one thing we've seen is that the transition from the Nippon League to the major leagues power doesn't often translate. Say, Suzuki went from being like a, he had 38 homers in his last season in Japan. He had 14.

in about 120 games last season. So, you know, he was decent. And I think, you know, there's, there's room for, say, Suzuki to grow in year two. But, you know, Yoshita's probably more like someone that you're expecting, maybe 12 to 15 homers, but, you know, maybe, you know, hopefully good run production numbers, especially runs at the top of that Red Sox lineup, right? Yeah, it's actually really funny. The Suzuki thing is something I've brought up because there's some things I think about

when I think of like Hassan Kim, but that's a different. That was the KBO obviously. But so if you go over and look at Sayat, you like you see a huge discrepancy. Like you said, 38 homers in his final year at 26 years old, by the way. Yoshida is not. I think he was 29 years old, 28, 29 in that period. But 38 to 14, the average dropped over 50 points. The walk to strike out ratio really leveled out.

Yoshita's a guy. He openly had even said like he had never really let off and wasn't sure if he was even comfortable with it, but he'll do it. there's a lot of plate presence in there, but he's hit 20 homers over the last couple years, doesn't steal. So you got no steals. I think minimal-ish power, really good plate skills,

which hopefully are going to translate over the entire year. But if you take what happened, even just with Sayazizuki, who by the way, was a 300 plus hitter for the last three seasons, just like Yoshita was. Obviously, they're not the same players. I just don't,

I'm not bullish about Yoshite. I really not. Like, if he leads off, okay, maybe that's going to be cool and he'll get some really good runs. But 280, 12 to 15 homers max, no stolen bases. I don't know if there's going to be a bunch of RBI.

Maybe he's a little bit better in OBP leagues. I just don't feel dramatic about him. And I would rather play upside on so many other players. Like if I were thinking about win now, I still wouldn't even probably want him inside my top eight of these first year player, even if I'm trying to play win now, because there's some college bats that are in that range. But I'm just probably avoiding overall.

And I might be wrong and I'll eat that if I end up wrong. Because I do like Sayaz going to have a nice bounce back this year and doesn't become much more of a fantasy asset. I just think there's a lot more power potential. And there's a little bit more speed potential with Suzuki than there is with the Oshida. All right. Let's move on to the rankings. And you'll recognize some of these names at the top. And we did a show back in June or probably, I feel like it was actually late July.

Yeah. Because they did the MLB draft during the All-Star. During the All-Starr. That was what it was. Yeah. Um, so you'll, you'll recognize some of these names just because of who their dads were in the top two guys on your list. Drew Jones outfielder for the Arizona Cardinals who has not made his major league or his professional debut. He had laboral, uh, laboral repair surgery a few months after the draft or a few days after the draft actually, right?

Like the week, a week later. Yeah. Actually, it was funny enough. By the way, you're still in football mode. You said Arizona Cardinals, but Arizona. I was on a dive. Yeah. He actually did.

He heard it because he came over. over here and he did the usual like, hey, I'm at Chase Field. I'm meeting the people and stuff like that. He did a BP session and he either heard it during that BP session or it was the next day at the Diamondbacks facility. So, and unfortunately, this happened with Jordan Lawler. Jordan Lawler when he played, he ended up playing two complex games. I was at the second to last one.

I went to his first one. And then he went to the second one and then he got hurt. Drew Jones didn't even make it to a complex league game, which he would have played. And he heard it during batting practice and had to have. shoulder surgery. But he has been here. I can, not that anyone cares,

but he's been here training and hanging out in the Diamondbacks facility while recovering, which is exactly what Corbyn Carroll did and is what Jordan Lawler did as well. Yeah, I guess the good news is the Diamondbacks organization has a lot of experience dealing with shoulder. They're used to this. Because, yeah,

I think it's three years in a row now, right? Corbyn Carroll, Jordan Lawler, and Drew Jones have all had shoulder surgery while being, you know, the team's arguable top prospect. The case for Drew Jones, I mean, if you're projecting ceiling, it's that.

I mean, in real life context, he's the son of, I would say arguably the best defensive center fielder in major league history or probably since Willie Mays. And he seems to have gotten a lot of that skill set because he's a very good defensive center fielder. Who projects as like a 30-20 guy at his ceiling, right? Yeah. There's a lot of like maybe even like Tatis feel to him

because he's like a big, six-foot. for, hasn't built up the muscle. You also look at him and I think it's kind of hard to judge, like, which way is this going to end up going? Is there going to be really big body mass? Or is it simply going to define itself into growing a little bit older? And then he ends up looking kind of like a Fernando Tatis Jr. But he put up like bonker stats in high school. It was a hit like near like 600 double digit homers can steal bases. He's a full five tool player to the umth degree. And kind of one of those guys where had any, I think had any team but the Orioles had the number one overall pick, he would have been the number one overall pick. Yeah, Trudejose did set the record for

signing bonus. So he was, you know, he got a little bit more money than Jackson Holiday despite being the number two pick. So I think most people thought he was the better player. Yeah. Yeah, it's 100% right. And it's not to take anything away from Jackson Holiday because at the end of the day, the Orioles get smacked for their cost savings and stuff like that. But I don't think it was anything dramatic. Jackson Holiday also really, really killer prospect with some really good EVs and his debut and growing into his body and with a killer dad who, you know, Matt Holiday is to thank for some guys we've talked about here on CBS. We've talked about some guys like Matt Carpenter who had worked with Holiday in the off season. And, you know, this is a great hitting family.

Both of these guys, incredibly unique. Drew Jones, though, I have a hard. Also, like, I'm a back fan, which probably doesn't help it. But, you know, back to what you were saying, like the Diamondbacks is as weird as the team as it is. And you know, you're Marlins fan. I'm a Diamondbacks fan. Like how uniquely weird is that on this platform? We couldn't have any of the big market teams.

There's no Dodgers. I mean, Frank's not here for Yankees. But, you know, these are like lowering. But the Diamondbacks development, you have to give a lot of credit for. Not only the guys that they've spotted to bring in, but Corbyn Carroll has made huge strides. Jordan Lawler was not seen as a slam dunk when he was drafted. that everyone's like, hey, he's got a lot of tools.

There's some swing and miss in here, and he's developed, bam. So you take all of that and what the Diamondbacks have done and they're scouting. And then you take maybe the most tooled player that they've ever seen. And over the last couple years, one of the most tooled players we have seen in general. And then you can start dreaming sky as the limit here. You know, if you were on another organization, maybe we might have some questions. But the Diamondbacks, we really have to give them more credit than anything else. And he is, Drew Jones is my number one.

but I also sent you, and forgive me if we're going on this on later, I haven't scrolled down. I also did this other thing. And I talked about this on my show, Prospect One. A couple weeks ago, I did a first year player episode. And not only do I have like my own ranks, I made this composite list. And I went and did, man, it was like a couple draft shout out to the Toolshed podcast. And then my guys from Triple Play Fantasy, they did a couple different drafts that had first year player. I took my prospect ADPs, which had five drafts.

in it. And then I took my own ranks and I took my buddy Eric Cross's ranks and I made this composite list of all the guys, all the averages. And I went to see how did it average out. And Drew Jones first in every single thing we did. He was never not first, which I think is unique about that. Obviously there can be a hive mind theory, but in everything across the board, Drew Jones was the number one. And his ADP came out as a true one, 1.0, which I thought was fascinated about Drew Jones. So if people are curious on like where the thought process is, it is unanimously him. But Jackson Holiday has put himself into a really great two with a 2.4 of across everything that I did, uh, ADP. So is the is the gap between Jackson Holiday and

Joe Jones mostly just Drew Jones has louder tools, but Jackson Holiday, you know, is just more of like a solid all around player? Is it kind of like a, uh, I don't know, the guy that I want to comp him to and, you know, maybe with the way his careers turned out, like, oh, man, Danesby Swanson. Oh, okay. Who I was thinking of. Like, as a prospect, he was very highly ranked. Was he the number one prospect in baseball at one point? No.

Well, I think he was, the Diamondbacks took him. Was it number one overall in that year? Because I think that might have been a year that we had. And unfortunately, they traded him. I don't think he didn't reach number one. number one overall pick yeah yeah because he the dime x took him number one overall over actually bernan rogers that was a year that they were kind of going between those guys and uh he got traded pretty quick on and i don't think he ever reached number one like overall status he was number three

for baseball america number two for baseball prospectus okay that was pretty close then yeah yeah and and but the the comp that i'm going with is like doesn't necessarily have one incredible carrying tool doesn't necessarily have like you know 70 grades across the board or anything but is like 55 to 60 on that 20 to 80 grading scale like at everything right is that kind of the thought process there yeah i mean i think there's a couple things so like drew jones kind of jumped on the scene a little bit more i've told a lot of people this my number one guy like a year to 16 months ago was elijah green this elijah green tamar johnson were bigger names kind of on a circuit home run derby win for tamar johnson elijah green kind of the it was like six foot four two 20 at like 17 years old it's ridiculous huge uh skill sets and then Drew Jones jumped up but Jackson holiday was not like he really flew up boards where everyone had to start paying attention and he's grown physically as well I mean that was one of things a little bit smaller now listing is getting closer to six foot one obviously building body mass

his dad it's a pretty easy thing to go there and then you start to look at kind of like what you're saying this is like a you know maybe it's not like 70 or you remember like when pipeline dropped the bomb they're like the first 80 great hit tool Vladimir Guerrero we've ever seen Like it's not that, but it might be 60s across the board. Also a premium position where he can stay. There's great bloodlines. The Orioles are another one of those that do great stuff. And unlike Drew Jones, and this is where things alter a little bit where I wouldn't be shocked if people.

I think Baseball America just actually released their top 100. I believe Jackson Holiday is above for them overall is Holiday did get some work. He had 64 bats. He hit 297, hit a homer, four stolen bases. We've got data. Like I said, his average EV across. to Jeff Ponce in Baseball America was around 91, which is pretty extreme for him already. For an 18 year old, that's pretty good.

Especially in that class. Not to mention 25 walks to 12 strikeouts and 20 games in his pro debut. He only played 12 games in Class A, but that's, I mean, he wasn't just swinging out of his shoes at everything there. Yeah, yeah, it's actually 90, by the way. But like Elijah Greens was like 91. So, I mean, if you get 90 and above, those are big markers. So I think Jackson Holiday represents a little bit. bit more of the dream ceiling with a floor where like Drew Jones is kind of like in his own

stratosphere. He lives up here. There's the Elijah Greens who have a lot of talent, but there's some warts out there. Tamar, there's some warts. Jackson Holiday has this like safety net five tools, which I think there's some questions on a lot of these other players. Are they five tools? And really if you look at the top 10 as far as like my first year player goes, if I would if I were to comfortably sit here and like here are the five tool real real five tool players i might give you three and jackson holley is one of them so i think that's something why also the value has jumped up and uh you know it's also hard to defy bloodlines at this point like these guys that have dealt with this in their entire life and especially like jackson holiday specifically like matt holladay is a coach like matt holley is

teaching this and it's still very active andrew jones is not coaching not that that means anything andrew jones just out there like you know still hanging out with people and showing up and doing science, you know, all this stuff. But like, Maca Palli is still actively involved in it with his son. And I think that gives people a little bit more confidence. I mean, I think you just, you know, to go on a little bit of a tangent, but I think you look across sports and like the bloodlines or or the culture that you're raised in. Like, that stuff helps.

You look at, I mean, the, the Blue Jays are our team that I think, I don't know if I've ever seen, like, was it a conscious decision? But they had obviously Dante Bichette's kid and Craig Bigeo's kid and Vladimir. Guerrera's kid, but they also had Jeff Kodine's son. And I think they had a, oh, there was a catcher for the expos in like the early 2000s whose son they also had. Like they had like six or seven. They had a couple other guys, uh, you know, so it seemed like a real. It was like no longer coincidence. It was like, yeah, like I got one or two. Maybe it's coincidence. But it's like, yeah, exactly. You're actively doing that. And I think there's something to it. And again, like also we're just

throwing out some like, you know, I don't know, just like philosophical points. about a lot of this as well. But like Jackson Holiday also, you know, hit his first professional homers, stole bases, had an under 20% K percentage at both complex and a ball, which again, very small sample sizes.

But just for everyone to understand, like he made really good contact. He walked, which is pretty typical, but he didn't strike out. It's another thing that he didn't want to see. And his body is growing. He's one of these guys that that body really seems like

it has grown from even the draft until now, and it'll continue. And this is kind of the one, one, one B. in Drew Jones and Jackson Holiday. And then so you've got Elijah Green outfielder number three and you've got Tamar Johnson number four. And in looking at that

consensus ADP that you're talking about, it looks like that's another mini tier, right? You've got green with the average of three, Tamar Johnson 3.8. So what gives green the edge over Tamar Johnson? I think it's the physical. I'll tell you though. There was also a time where I made this,

is how tough I think these are. I am a Tamar Johnson truther. Yeah, I want to say back when we did this in July, you were talking about Tamar Johnson, arguably, as your favorite prospect. Yeah, and I do. And I love, I really, really love this kid. Elijah Green's tools are really loud with the mature body. So like, Drew Jones, you go and look and we're like, okay, this is a kid that has all sky high potential across the board, did it in high school, imagine he grows, blah, blah, blah. Elijah Green is already physically there. So I think you could ask like, how much can he grow? And that's something that a lot of prospect people were going to. to look at. You're going to look and be like, all right, whether physical growth is there from a body perspective and a player, he's six foot three, two, 25. Like, this is how he came in as a draft.

He's a physical monster, had some of the biggest home runs in high school ball whenever we would get previews out there. And he can obviously run my questions with him are twofold. Will the running continue long term as the body grows? This is a big guy. It can obviously Julio doing it, but will it? and that's a question and then he's got major strikeout problems like 40% he had in his debut it obviously is it's a little bit overplayed or anything like that as very 12 games

but there's a lot of swing and miss in his games but this is the type of guy that looks like he could tap into 35 plus power Tamar Johnson you know I've tried to cool myself a little bit but I still believe in the hit tool he struggled at complex but then when he got into A ball he really found himself again

I believe he hit over 280 he just made solid contact and this is his game. Carlos Colazo, Baseball America, said he's the best prospect he had ever scouted in his multi years

of working at Baseball America. Tamara has been seen as like a 60 plus on hit and power when a home run derby, but he's smaller. And that's five, seven people. Yeah, he's so smaller dude.

He's built thick. I think he is probably maybe one of the most competitive of all of these players. He will not allow himself to not succeed. And I think he's going to hit and I think he's going to hit

for power. Here's your problems. He's a little bit smaller. He doesn't run like the rest of these guys. So now take maybe speed off. I'm questioning a little bit on Elijah Green. Will it continue at an elite level? I think Jones and Holiday locks.

Green, let's see. Johnson, there's not. And then here's the third. He's the pirates. Elijah Green's are the nationals. I don't like the development on what they've done with either one of those teams. The nationals are bringing good guys in. They brought in James Wood.

Hassel is a little bit question for people. So that's nice. But how have they developed guys? Carter Keyboom kind of stings. Hopefully Abrams and Elise Garcia are going to work this year. And the pirates just in general, I mean, outside of O'Neill Cruz, like, who are the guys? I don't know if their development's great. So I think those are some more.

It seems like he stalled out. Yeah. Exactly. Exactly. But that is the tier to your point. Like people are drafting these four in some combination. But I will tell you that I think after Elijah Green, it's a little bit more of a question, if we're being honest, because a couple of the guys we're going to talk about here shortly,

there are some really, really sought after college hitters. And that's one thing we haven't done. We haven't got into the college hitters or even Cam Collier that might start to alter how people are going to be drafting. Yeah, one note that I did see for Tamar Johnson is in the Florida State League. He averaged 90.4 miles per hour, average X velocity. Nine of his 30 batted balls were in play over 100 miles per hour. That's per baseball prospectus. They're very good numbers for a guy who was 18 years old playing with a wood bat for the

first time. So, you know, you talk about he's undersized, but he hits for pop. That's where you can see that in. It's, is, you know, we're starting to get more of the minor league data. It's not quite as accessible, but I try to note it where I can. I wish it was public. I cannot tell you enough how I wish it was more readily accessible to get a lot of this information. And unfortunately, in the prospect world, it's just like, usually about who you know, who you know that will release some of the data to you. And that is what makes it unfortunate. All right. You've mentioned. Cam Collier a few times, son of Lou Collier. He's a Cincinnati Reds third base prospect. Tell me about Cam Collier real quick. Yeah, Cam Collier of 90 plus average EV sweet, long arms, big body, reclassified,

one of the youngest guys in here playing third base, immense hit tool, immense power to be had, not the strikeout issues that you see with a lot of these other guys. He's an incredible talent. He's just a ways away. Maybe some questions people have with the Reds. I don't. I got to see him out here. during the they had an incredible complex league team that had some of their drafted guys and in instructs as well they had Sal Stewart who they drafted Justin Boyd. They had this great complex league of Leonardo Balzacar and Carlos Jorge and they traded for Edwin O'Royal from the Mariners if people know these prospects and this just a stacked team and Cam Collier was just sitting in the middle hitting three hitting three for this team the entire time

as a 17 year old he didn't as a 17 year old until well after the heat November 20th 2004 seeing that birthday ran out. really makes me feel old. Oh, well, wait. I mean, go look at the J-15 class and you're going to feel worse about yourself. Trust me. They're getting close to my son's age.

And that's a very, very big worry thing. But yeah, like, he's a guy that we probably would have been, we know he would have been talking about next year's class, the next year's class with Dylan Cruz and them. But he was able to get in here, slid down a little bit. And I think he's a great high school bat, but he does fall into this mix. We don't have to spend any more time on him because this has been a big high school run.

People are uncomfortable with waiting this long. It's an even bigger path. for things to go wrong. And that's why I'm saying there's some disagreement, because then you're going to start getting into this barrage of college hitters that people might value over them. And this is why guys like Collier and Tamar Johnson have the potential to fall in first-year player.

I was going to ask you earlier. I was going to, when putting the rundown together, so who's the player who's going to make the quickest major league debut? But I figured we'd just wait because I knew it wouldn't take long for us to get to Zach Netto. And I imagine that's the obvious answer being the guy who got. 30 games in at AA last season where he hit 320 with an 874 OPS and 30 games at AA as a 21 year old in the same year he was drafted.

That's pretty impressive. Yeah, I mean, I think so. Like also if you just look at the team, you know, you go and look at the team and they say like, what, where their needs at and it's obviously offensive piece truly. I wouldn't throw it out the window that Netto was in a possibility to play this year. At some point later in this year, I really wouldn't with how they progressed him. preseason like draft time roster resource has their opening day shortstop as louis renfifo so not not a long term not a slam dunk lock at all no like if if zach netto was up in july

i wouldn't be that shocked i really wouldn't be but he's just not an opening day roster thing if we were asking if you asked me this question like when we did and you may have by the way you asked me this question back when the draft first happened i probably would have said kevin parada with the Mets because I think Parada is probably one of the most just tooled out ready players for the majors destroyed at Georgia Tech. He's a solid catcher. I think he's the catcher they're planning on in the future over Alvarez. Alvarez, you know, bat first, maybe DH a little bit more.

But Parada was an incredible hitter, 26, 28 homers in college at Georgia Tech this year can run a little bit. Maybe there's a little bit of J2 Ramuto that's sitting in there. And, you know, he's already got that college experience. I think that's a guy that could fly. I probably would have said to him, like Brooks Lee would have been the other one, but Brooks is also kind of blocked just a tiny bit with all those infielders that team has. And if I really wanted to cheat, probably would have said a guy like Ben Joyce,

who famously if people pay attention, he's a reliever for the angels who throw 105 miles an hour. And that would be a guy that I would think, a guy that throws 105 miles an hour. Yeah, at a Tennessee who had college wear might be something a team might say, hey, let's take advantage of this while we can and get him, even in a six-inning role. let's get him some major league experience so we can take advantage of that. So like if I were cheating, I would actually say Ben Joyce, but Zach Netto, either way, it seems like it might come from the Angels. Yeah, I mean, I've always, I've always said like once you get to double, every organization treats it differently. I don't, you know, the Marlins are one, you know, that I know well, they've historically tended to not view AAA as a necessary step in the development process.

I mean, you think about the biggest name prospects that the Marlins have called up. Very few of them actually spend much time at AAA at all. But, you know, some teams go the whole way. The Rays, I think, are historically pretty conservative when it comes to. Like, they want you to prove it at every level. So it's different for every team. But, you know, once you get to AA, you could be a good three weeks away from making a major league debut either way. You know, what's interesting about that is, and someone will correct me if I'm wrong about this,

I don't believe a single drafted player from this draft class. made it to the Arizona Fall League this year. I know a lot of people I care about the Arizona Fall League because I live here a lot, don't. But the Arizona Fall League is fascinating because, you know, it's famously known as the building ground, the next step, the stepping stone to the major leagues.

And we have seen this before. Luke Waddell last year with the Braves. Nico Horner actually is someone who comes to mind that the Cubs pushed. And Netta wasn't one of those guys. And no one did. But you want to know what's interesting? It wasn't like, oh, he's got other stuff to do.

He was here. I saw him at games. He was just like sitting around. Joe Dell was actually here. A lot of players are just kind of. of hanging out here. And Netto was just here. And he sat in the stands for a couple games and watched some of them.

So that sticks out of my mind if you're thinking about like, hey, are guys really going to make it to the majors this year? I felt like the Angels would have put him in the Arizona Fall League to get that extra little step that maybe that developmentally, they just wanted him to get to AA. And then this year, they're going to have him put in a load of it bats in AA,

then AAA. So the idea of really getting a guy from last year's draft class coming up this year is probably not going to happen. but then it's going to open up. So if we're looking at 2024, Parada, Brooks Lee, obviously Netto,

I think it's going to open up a little bit to the possibilities of any of these guys that'll make it to the majors. And so that's the next three in your rankings. We're going, Zach Netto 6, Brooks Lee 7,

Kevin Perada, 8. Who would you say has the most upside of that trio? I'm sorry, it was, who was it? It was... Zach Netto, Brooks Lee, and Kevin Perada.

Okay, yeah, I wasn't sure if you put Netto in here. So here's the tough part. I love Netto because he's to a player. I've said this a bunch. He kind of like has a Royce Lewis isness to me where, you know, make contact. There's also like a big front leg kick. I think he can move around. He steals bases. Brooks Lee is probably the best bat of these players and probably going to move off the position. Big physical guy going to hit homers. Makes it look really easy, but he's not going to steal.

So you, I think, I think they're 1A1B in this range. And I would be comfortable with taking them over Collier if you don't want to wait a little bit. But what I would tell people, is like, just make your decision. Do you want the power bat or do you want the guy that is going to offer you stolen bases? And I don't think there's a right or wrong answer. I have Netto over Brooks Lee, but they are 1A1B to me. And then, you know, Parada, I am an outlier on Parada. It seems like my aggregate list that I put together, I saw Prada go late.

What do we have? I have Parada at. There's 13.6. So it looks like 11. I think I have them at 8 or 9. Yeah, you've got them. went away from it. Okay, yeah, that's what I meant is I have met eight and he was a 13.6 ADP, and he ended up being as far as the aggregate goes, the 12th player on first year player.

So I'm a little bit of the outlier. Not that I'm a big catcher guy in fantasy. It's just I think he's a great guy that's going to come up soon, has big stats and one of those catchers. I really think product could be one of those guys that, you know, we're making the excuses for these catchers that are in the top 100 of drafts. You know, look at Will Smith and Adley Rushman. I think he could be there because he can steal some bases, makes tons of contact with power. So I'm an outlier on Parada, it seems like, for most people. All right.

Let's move on to 9, 10, 11. Chase DeLouter, Drew Gilbert, Gavin Cross. Give me the high level view on all three of those guys. Deloudre at one point, Prospects Live, Jeff Ponce, number one overall prospect. I think a lot of people are still pushing him up on that aggregate list. He ended up being number nine on there because of the hit tool. He really struggled in the beginning of the year last year in college, going up against his crazy Florida State team that had Parker Messick and Bryce Hubbard,

who were two of the best college pitchers in baseball. And that kind of set him back. But it's a really good hit tool, great organization. And I think a lot of people think that this is just going to progress. Probably not tons and tons of stolen bases, but he's going to get there. I've got Drew Gilbert, who I really, really love. The Astros got a little bit of a smaller guy, but this is more of like a punch in a smaller package. There's going to be stolen bases.

I think we can get to, I think he could be a 2020 guy. And I think the Astros do a good job of developing. And he was one of those things that saw really good success early on and got some time last year and he could move. And then we went to Gavin Cross, who Gavin Cross actually was one I got to see last year, down here in Instructs with the Royals. And he's just another one of those like premium college bats. There's not much stolen base in the in the repertoire. I don't like him as much as some other people.

I think it's a fine hit tool, decent power. I just don't think he has the upside of these other guys. and I'm a little bit washy about how. It can be honest with you. I'm looking at my list. I'm looking at Gavin Cross. And the next guy on this list is Spencer Jones for mine. Spencer Jones had an ADP of 10.8 and ended up being the 11th guy in here.

There's an argument to go Spencer Jones on the upside playing with the Yankees. Aaron Judge Combs because he's a monster out there. He was a two-way-old seven there. Yeah, he's a huge big monster, big power. And it's like if you're going to take a, maybe the Hitchell is a little bit better with Gavin Cross, but the power potential is better with Spencer Jones. They both don't run. So who do you want a Royal or a Yankee? I kind of see why Spencer Jones is there. And maybe I'll end up making that move. I'm not overly impressed with Gavin Cross, but, you know, this is another bat, college bat that's in

there. And then I'm just throwing Spencer Jones out to everybody as well. Because he is one of the biggest high risers since the draft has happened. He's moved himself into the first round. And I think that's one that's going to catch people off guard. So, you know, take advantage in your league. Yeah, I was doing some reading about Spencer Jones. It's hard not to get excited when you you see six foot seven Yankees hits the ball really hard, had a max exeval of 119 miles per hour during his college season. No big deal. John Carlos Stanton had a harder hit ball in the majors last season.

Worth pointing out, metal bats. They've deadened the bats in the over the last decade or so, but they still, they're harder than wood bats and the ball comes off harder. And in the Florida State League, his average exit velocity 89.9.9 miles per hour. So right around that 90 mile per hour mark that we've talked about a few times,

max exit villa of a lot of 100. 11 miles per hour with wood bats in his major league debut. So those are still very impressive numbers. Go ahead. And he pushed two levels on his debut. He played a tiny bit in rookie ball with the Yankees. And then he went to A ball where he hit 325 in low A. And he had a couple homers in there.

And like hitting 325 without strikeout rates were pretty good actually as well. 18 strikeouts only 83 at bats. He walked 10 times and he stole 10 bases. Think about that. 12 stolen bases in his entire run. in the minors last year. A big six-foot-seven guy with advantages coming overall for stolen bases. Spencer Jones is excited.

I mean, I'm talking myself in that, yeah, he might need to be a guy. You're going to make an upgrade. Yeah, no, that's one thing that I will keep in mind whenever we're talking about stolen base totals from the miners is they, the major league rules that we're excited about already are in place in the minors. And there have been, you know, other changes that have been made in the minor league level. I think the bases are closer together in the minors than they are in the majors, which is an interesting wrinkle that I've found fascinating just to think about. I won't go into the specifics of it, but I think in total,

the bases in the minors last season were like something like 13 inches closer, or second base was 13 inches closer to first than it was at the major league level last season, which is just, I think that's hilarious. I think it's so funny that like the actual physical dimensions were different. it was a result of they moved second base closer to home and they made the base as bigger, which we're only getting one of those changes at the major league level.

They're making the bases bigger. But that was an interesting one that you have to keep in mind stolen base totals and the miners are inflated right now for multiple reasons, but we're also expecting them to be inflated in the major league level. Especially also like just think about in complex and low A, you also have like 17 and 18 year old catchers who these guys are getting like,

rep. It's also why not only do you look at AFL, but like complex level numbers are rough because the pitchers are usually, you know, 17, 18 year old, especially at complex specifically, like international guys that are out here that are big heavy fastballs looking at breaking. So walk numbers are

inflated at the lower, lower level. Stolen bases are kind of a lot easier to do. That is actually a completely side note and I won't do it. But like Zach Vien specifically was one of those guys that I played that game with and then as he's gone, he just keeps stealing bases and the AFL, he stole. He stole the most he was elite.

That's one of those where it was like, wow, this kept translating. He is a little bit different than the norm. Okay. So we talked a little bit about Spencer Jones. There was, you know, obviously, like I said, the Aaron Judge comp is going to be the natural one. But even, you mean, reading some of the scouting reports about him, it sounds like there's a lot of similarities in terms of like,

you know, Aaron Judge didn't really start hitting for like huge power until he got to the majors, basically. Like his minor league numbers are kind of. underwhelming for the most part. I think there was a little bit of a boost right towards the end of his minor league career. But for the most part, he was not putting up huge numbers in the miners because he think a lot of line drives. He has more of a flat swing, especially as a prospect. And from what I was reading, that's also true of Spencer Jones.

He's a left. But not a swing that's super geared to power. But as we've seen with Aaron Judge, when you have that kind of raw power, you know, you can hit for a lot of power without necessarily hitting a ton of fly balls. So yeah, I watch a lot of Vanderbilt last year. Also, you know, because of the pitcher, well, that was a year before as well, but with the lighter and the Kumar Rocker stuff. But like he's just one of those guys. It definitely was like a flattened swing that would get out there. And that's just an organization just, you know, being able to redefine that swing, work on it throughout. And that's why like he might be a little bit volatile, but you just see those lower numbers and they really, really stand out with a big physical presence. And again, I just want to point out, we're like 12 in and we're still going into these really, really like, kind of exciting offensive prospects. And this back end is all these college guys. This is what's really great as well. Look at all these college guys that are getting pushed back.

This is why this first round and first year player is fascinating to me. And we're not even done. There's a few more college guys here in this, at least top 15, if we're talking about Roto. You're muted. Classic Chris move talking while muted. Did it while I'm hosting. Love to see it. I did it the other day.

So I was like, it is a classic Chris move. You or me. So number 13, Jacob Barry for the Marlins. Dalton rushing for the Dodgers and Jet Williams for the Mets. Personally, as a Marlins fan, I find Jacob Barry to be unbelievably underwhelming as a number six overall pick for a team that desperately needs offense. But maybe you can talk me into him. Well, I think a lot of people agree with you.

So this is, I was saying, like, I think I differ from pirata. This is the one that I'm completely different with, I think, the industry. So, you know, I have the whole consensus for, your player rank over all this stuff. Well, I have him at, and I had him higher, by the way. I've met 13. His consensus ADP was 20.8 going off at 20, and I believe he had a low of 26.

And why I'm fascinated with this, I don't disagree that he's kind of underwhelming, but I think the overwhelming thing comes from, he's kind of a positionless guy, if you will. And that's not full on, because he played third base, he played at U of A, went to LSU, but it's a bat first guy.

There's a lot of, I don't still fully quite understand them, but there's some comps out there to, to Kyle Schwerber. And I think that might be part of like that attack swing he has on inside pitches can get kind of Schwabre-esque, except his legs kind of come in a little bit where Schwerber's don't. But I mean, this is about first guy. So this is why I'm a little bit confused on a bat first player, why everybody hates him so much. Now, the batting average could be maybe struggles if you want to see what he did at U of A. But, well, no, actually, it was just 370 at LSU this past year and 352 before that.

32 homers across both of his stints in college ball. And then he just to play like four games this past year and he struggled. But this is huge power, good eye, walks. And I think that's probably where some of the Schwerver stuff comes in, that this is a guy that I think people view the batting average coming down a little bit, but he's going to be able to walk. In 2022, he walked more than he struck out in college. He walked 27 times at LSU.

He struck out 22 times. So this is an OBP boost with big power. The big question is going to be, how does he work against hitting a lot of off-speed stuff? And I just think getting a guy that could push close to the majors, Craig Mish has pretty positive about what the Marlins feel they have out of him, a guy that could play a corner infield, they don't really care because I think he is a 30-plus homer guy if things work out.

So if he plays first, he'll align there. You could go with some other upside plays in here. Williams, you mentioned is one of those five toolish players, but I just don't understand the hate on Jacob Barry, but he obviously doesn't have all these other exciting stuff that these guys go with. So like even at 13, you don't really dig Jacob Perry? It's more of a Marlins taking him at six overall kind of thing. Just reading the scatting reports and it was like it didn't seem like the, he didn't have the upside that I would prefer. But I'm not a prospect guy. And I tend to be you know a lot of fans tend to be overly optimistic about their teams and you can't really take anything seriously when they say them.

I tend to go the opposite way and I don't be too pessimistic about the Marlins, although I've been a Marlins fan for long enough that I don't know if you can be too pessimistic, but that's my, that's my, you know, my own thing. I've been saying all these positive things. Last episode, I'm like, I'm a jazz chisholm guy and I'm being like, hey, I'm trying to defend Jacob Barry. You know, the one thing I want to add in is the guy sandwiched in between. I mentioned Jet Williams. He's a high school bat that I just wasn't as big. on, but like people freaking love. And obviously watch more video. He's got some explosive bat speed. But Dalton rushing is really fascinating. Ridiculous numbers in his pro debut.

And that was the thing. And see, so Jacob Barry and Dalton rushing are polar opposite. Jacob Barry stunk in his four games that he played. There's not good defensive comps. A little bit underwhelming to your point. I think a lot of people, Jacob Barry kind of reminds me of like Heston Kersted, where Hesha Kirste was taken like number one, didn't really do much, has suffered some injury things, played away.

and forgot about him. Jacob Barry got drafted high. They could annoy people. And then he struggled in his pro debut over four games. But Dalton rushing is the opposite. He hit like seven homers in like a span of like two weeks on the lower level with the Dodgers showed a really, really great presence. Again, this is the college bat in low A, but a really, really good presence for picking up pitching. Pitch recognition was high. The bat was already there. This is another one of those catchers that a lot of people feel the Dodgers were just able to, why did we let him have him? But this is one of the best pro debuts of any of these players came out of Dalton Rushing with the most impactful homers. So him and Jacob Berry are polar opposites on what they did in 2022.

Yeah, Dalton Rushing 404 with a 1263 OPS and 30 games between Complex League and A Ball Rancho Cucamonga, which is just the name that I love to say. We will, we're running up against it, but I'll just run through what you've got as the second round of the first year player drafts. We'll take off after that. But Ethan Salas, San Diego Padres, he was one of the international free agent signings. Connor Yerpe, I believe is how you pronounce that. Gerpy, yeah, Connor Jerpy.

Kate Horton, Cubs pitcher, Eric Brown, Brewer's shortstop. So you see Connor Herpy Jerpy and Kate Horton, the first two pitchers that we've talked about. Justin Crawford, Philadelphia Phillies outfielder, Jace Young, Detroit Tigers, second baseman. Kamar Rocker, Rangers pitcher, Dylan Lesko, Padres pitcher, Landon Sims, Diamondbacks pitcher, Brock Porter,

Rangers pitcher. Jacob Miziarowski, Brewer's pitcher, Cole Young, Seattle Mariners, shortstop, Dylan Beavers, Orioles outfielder, fell in Celestern, Mariner's Shortstop. He was one of the International for Agent guys, I believe.

And then Brandon Berea, Toronto Blue Jay's pitching prospect, probably butchered most of those names. I apologize to those players and their families and everybody who had to listen to it. I'm famously pretty bad with names. But yeah, like you said,

No pitchers inside of the top 15, but a lot in that second round. And it could be a situation where if you wanted to trade down and take some of those pitchers late, there could be some fast risers there, right? Yeah. And I just throw in as well on the aggregate list. I think I screwed up Dylan Lesko a little bit. Dylan Lesko might have been the number one pitcher. He might have the most talent, but he's coming off at Tommy John high school pitcher.

That's why I'm a little bit lower. I boosted up some college pitchers. But on that aggregate list, Jerpy did end up being the number. number one pitcher. Cade Horton dropped below Lesko and Brock Porter, who's a high school pitcher here for the Dodgers, and Kumar Rocker came after Cade Horton. So it's a really interesting. There's not a consensus on the pitchers. There's a ton of value. Some people believe Jacob Mizoroski with the Brewers might be one of the best. He had insane spin rates that are going out there as well. So that like 20 to 30 range or 15 to 30 range has a lot of interesting

hitters are pitchers in there of the college type and a few. that you can take some shots on. Landon Sims is that one I was mentioned before with the Diamondbacks, who was like one of the best pitchers in college baseball, used to be a closer, ended up being a starter. And he had, I think it was Tommy John, and he's going to come back and I think he's going to be a lightning rod. So it's like, I just really love the values of some of the late college pitchers and even high school that I would prioritize hitting early and then snap. I think you could snag a pitcher or two regardless of the formats. It's, again, it's depty. It's pretty fun to dig in.

to these. And I am an outlier also probably on Ethan Salas. I have him way higher than any other J-15 is probably going to go out there. So you don't want to mess with guys five years away. Move on and go to the next player, according to my list at least. All right. And that's going to do it for Fantasy Baseball today. Thank you so much, Chris Welsh, for imparting your your information on us and, you know, helping me learn about the first-year player draft. And we'll be back next week with more 2023 season preview. We'll see you then.