Fantasy Baseball Today - Floor vs. Ceiling; HR and WHIP Sleepers (06/09 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: June 9, 2020

Today on the show we're taking a look at some late-round contributors for home runs and WHIP but first, which categories do the guys struggle with the most (2:30)? ... We're trying something new called Floor vs. Ceiling where we present you a player and present a realistic upside and downside. First up is David Dahl (7:02). Are the strikeouts too big of a concern? Do we overlook Coors Field too much in H2H points leagues? ... What's the range of outcomes for Jorge Polanco (12:55)? He seems relatively safe but nobody wants him. Would Adam rather have Gleyber Torres in the third round or Polanco in the 13th? ... Sean Manaea was great for five starts in 2019 but how realistic was it (17:00)? Is he a target at his current ADP? ... Justin Turner may be old but he still gets it done when he's on the field (22:00). Are we comfortable with him as a starting third baseman? ... Will the real Mike Foltynewicz please stand up (27:07)? ... We transition into our home run and WHIP sleepers (34:46). Khris Davis is the poster child but don't forget about names like Renato Nunez, Luke Voit, and Edwin Encarnacion. ... Who are some starting pitchers who can provide WHIP help later on (45:40). Everybody loves Rich Hill! ... Email us at [e-mail]. 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @CBSFantasyBB, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Download our printable Draft Kit from CBSSports.com/draftkit! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive, center field, and swing. This is magnificent. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank Scott, Chris, and Adam.

Last season, 6,776 home runs were hit in Major League Baseball, setting a new single-season record. Today on the show will give you some late round contributors in the home runs and whip categories. Welcome to fantasy baseball today on a Tuesday, June 9th. Frank Stamphle alongside Adam Azer, Scott White, Chris Towers. Adam, everything are right in the household, man? No. You know, have you been watching Mo Baseball.

I'm going to try to get a recording of him saying that. Maybe you can make it a drop. today not a lot of baseball just what was today today he wanted to walk backwards so they were doing a lot of walking backwards um and uh i hate everything right now so i'm in a bad mood frank i don't know why you're saying you're like tuesday june 9th and i'm just like shut up frank nobody's singing today sorry adam i'm just trying to lift i'm trying to lift your spirits man i'm trying to pick you up chris and scott are also here How's it going, fellas? Do you want to write? Anything to report? Yeah. Yeah. No. No. I'm not a reporter, Frank. I'm an analyst, so I don't know what you want for me. I'm here to analyze. Observe and report. Chris has this big, bright Marlin shirt on. Yeah, it's the old old Miami Marlins, though. You know, the International League Miami Marlins, Satchel Page pitched for them. Historic team.

Would love to get a jersey of them. The Marlins wore throwbacks a couple years ago. If anybody is thinking about a birthday gift, my birthday is coming up in about four weeks. So, you know, just dropping a hint there. Today on the show, we're going to talk about those late-round category contributors in home runs and whip. We're also going to do a little floor versus ceiling.

I've picked out a select group of five players. We're going to do some analysis, some floor, some ceiling, some upside versus downside for those players and let you know everything you need to know about those specific guys. But first, I want to ask you guys this. Considering we're talking about all these late round sleepers for specific categories,

which categories do you guys struggle with the most? Batting average. Yeah, I would say the rate stats are probably the toughest ones for me. Batting average, we talked a little bit about yesterday. Today we're going to talk about WIP. It seems like I always struggle with WIP and ERA. So I'm going to be interested to see who you guys have in terms of sleepers because I'm sure we could all use them. Whip is definitely the one I struggle with most because I tend to look at like upside and strikeouts and things like that.

And then I tend to forget about whip sometimes, which isn't the best thing to do. Scott, what categories do you struggle with the most? I don't know that I have a good answer for that. I, none. I see what you're saying about the ratio stats, and that's probably true. One of the thing I don't really do is I don't specifically target RBI or runs. Whenever we get to the conversation where we're going to talk about RBI and run sleepers, I'm not sure.

I'll have great answers for that because generally what I do is, generally how I approach the hitter categories. I'm trying to balance home runs and steals while constantly nurturing. batting average. That's how I think of it. And runs in RBI, I just let happen. Because if I'm doing well in home runs, I'm probably going to do well in RBI. It's difficult not to. So I've never specifically targeted those two categories. So I don't know if that means I struggle in them or I just,

I'm not exactly sure what you're looking for. Well, I guess that makes two of us, Scott. We're trying to figure out what I do one from you. Ultimately, it's, you know, just, I guess thinking back on the Roto leagues that you played in the past couple of seasons that had-to-head categories leagues, and I mean, there has to be, or maybe not, maybe there's just not one specific category. Maybe it's a, it changes on a year-to-year basis what you struggle with, but it seems for me, it's the rate stats are the ones that always kind of give me trouble. And, you know, if you do fall behind in those, they are harder to recover. That's what I've found. So I guess that was the, the crux of the

question. Well, I have had an answer. for, I do have an answer for which ones I've struggled with most over the past couple years, but you're not going to like it. What is that? Pitching categories. Which pitching categories? All but saves, I guess. You struggle in everything but saves?

Yeah. Yeah, I haven't. Like, when my roto teams have performed less than I wanted them to, that's, that's why is because of those categories. So yes. So not so much category is more pitching. right. That's why I said you weren't going to like the answer.

That's fine. I like it. I think it's a great answer. I think we overthink it sometimes. You know, like just draft a good team. You have to keep categories in mind, especially steals and saves because they're sort of independent. But, you know, be mindful. Don't take too many guys with 250. But you're drafting a good team. I don't know. You know what I'm saying? Like, don't overcomplicate it. Just, I mean, draft good players. I will just say this. Speak for yourself when you say you're drafting a good team. You're trying to draft a good team. It's the goal. Everyone's trying to draft a good team.

Hopefully talking about some of the floors and ceilings of these players that we're about to talk about will help you do so. So I had an idea where basically we have four people here. One person presents the floor. One person presents the ceiling. One person tells us how they really feel what their overall analysis is and whether or not they like that player. And then Adam is going to basically be our studio audience where I'm just going to throw a question his way,

whatever it might be, and you won't know what the question is until I answer it. So there you go. Can I be like the laugh track? Sure, if that's what you want. But ultimately, the players that I picked out here, David Dahl, I have Jorge Polanco, Sean Mania, Justin Turner, and Mike Fultenevich.

These are all completely random players. I just was just scrolling through ADP and trying to figure out players that we just haven't talked about. And honestly, we have talked about a lot of players. So it was harder to find players that we haven't talked about than ones that we actually have.

But for this exercise, let's get things started. David Dahl, Scott, you are going to present the floor argument. Chris is going to present the ceiling and a realistic floor, a realistic ceiling. And then I'll tell you whether or not I like David Dahl.

And just overall my analysis, of this player. Let's try and keep it to a minute. You can go less than a minute, but you can't go more than a minute. Looking at you, Chris. Each individual a minute or a minute for the whole thing? Individual a minute. Oh, I don't need that much time. Okay.

Scott, you're up. David Dahl's floor. Yes, so where David Dahl is falling short right now, too many strikeouts, and not really the appropriate launch angle for a lot of power. And he doesn't want much either. So, you know, he got bailed out by Coorsfield. I think he's, he's, still has enough of that

prospect pedigree that I still hope he does something he hasn't done yet and breaks through. But realistic floor, I guess, would be maybe like considering course field is his home. Maybe like a 260 batting average and like a 12 to 15 home or pace.

And, you know, that's assuming he stays healthy. Obviously, that pace would be, yeah. You know what I'm saying? That's probably his floor. His floor is not particularly usable in a standard. league. Chris, you're up. 162 game pace, right?

Just to set the record straight. Yeah. Not short and season stuff. Right. Chris, you're up with the ceiling on David Dahl. Yeah, this is actually something that I've kind of been working on already. I published a piece on CBS Sports.com yesterday. And basically what I did was I'm looking at like 50 game stretches and trying to look at like

what the range of outcomes could possibly be. based on, you know, the best 50 game stretches, the worst 50 game stretches, and then kind of the average 50 game stretches for each player. And I'm trying to stall so I can finish David Dahls because I'm looking at, so last season his best 50 game stretch in terms of home runs was 11. So, you know, you put that out to 162 game pace.

You know, you could easily see him hitting 35 home runs if he stays healthy. You know, the problem is he needs to get that strikeout rate down into that league average or a little worse pace. And he did have some 50 game stretches where he struck out right around 22.4% of the time. If he gets down to there, he hits 11 home runs, he has his typical Babbip. I could see a scenario where David Dahl hits between 300 and 310 with 35 home runs. That's the thing about Corr's field that we often talk about and it's worth remembering with a guy like David Dahl and with the likes of Ryan McMahon and Garrett

Hansen and all these guys who haven't really done it yet is if they can just prove to be adequate, like if you're an average hitter, you're probably going to have like an 890 OPS at Coors Field. That's just kind of how this thing works. So I think, you know, the upside for David Dahl is you're talking about a third round, second round player, maybe something like Austin Meadows last season. Chris, would you like to know how long you talked for? Yes. Two minutes, right? One minute and 45 seconds. Well, I wanted to introduce and discuss the larger concept

because this is actually something I made a lot of analysis about over the next couple of days and a couple of weeks is trying to show these ranges that could happen in a short and season because there's so much more variance in play. Next time you will be cut off by yourself saying... Deadpool hit it. So just the heads up, Chris. All right, for me, when it comes to David Dahl,

it all comes down to health for him. He hasn't played more than 100 games in a single season yet. Looked like he was somewhat breaking out last year. I would agree has to continue to cut down on the strikeouts. But he averaged 3.1 fantasy points per game, which was the same amount as Nick Castellano, someone who is being drafted much higher than David Dahl. I understand why, because he's moved over to Cincinnati, but was on pace for 24 homers, 108 runs scored last year, a 302 batting average. He was great against lefties, but of course did have the Coors Field effect. He had an OPS of 1,000 at Coors Field. His Ops on the road was 7.51.

Adam, our studio audience, I will ask you this. Do we not bake Coorsfield into the equation enough for head-to-head points league players? Because it is very frustrating owning them in a Points League when they play on the road. It almost feels like at times you can't start them. you probably can't start David Dahl when he's on the road. You couldn't like Ryan McMahon last year with someone that I would say, oh, pick him up. He's got six home games and drop him.

He's got six road games. But if they have a three and three week, I'm just going to start them, you know, for the most part. I don't know. I don't factor it in that much, Frank, because I just feel like we know who the guys that need to be owned in that format and the guys who don't. I like David Dahl, though.

Don't forget. He promised fantasy owners that I promise I'm going to steal more bases this year. That's a quote. He said, Chris, I promise. I promise I'm stealing more bases this year I know you're skeptical but it's going to happen something like that I'm paraphrasing I know but he did say I wanted to run more

couldn't the upside be something like Charlie Blackman yeah I mean not as much speed as Charlie Blackman had in his prime but you know maybe the 2018 version of Charlie Blackman who still stole like 11 bases I believe yeah I think that makes sense he can hit 300 with 25 25

35 300, 305 batting average. How do we feel about that? 25 steals, even with him being more aggressive, is probably optimistic. I'd probably set it at like 20, but 15 to 20 in that range. Yeah, I think that's definitely fair. Let's move on to Jorge Polanco.

For this exercise, Chris, you will represent the floor of Jorge Polanco. I will be the ceiling. Scott, you will give us your thoughts, and then we will hit up our studio audience. That is Adam Azer. Chris, you are on the clock with the floor. floor for Jorge Polanco. Yeah, the floor for Jorge Polanco, I mean, he is a guy who, you know, has pretty good plate discipline, walks a decent amount, doesn't strike out very much. So the floor is

actually pretty high. It's hard to see him, you know, hitting worse than 250, let's say. But, you know, if that 250 comes with a 20 homer pace, you know, 250, 260, 20 homers, it's hard to get too excited about. him. He's kind of one of those players who I don't think has a particularly wide range of outcomes. So the floor isn't too low, but it's still not fantasy relevant.

Yeah, for me, when it comes to Jorge Polanco, as with most twins last year, he pulled the ball more, he lifted the ball more, and still had that fantastic line drive rate, 26% line drive rate, which just makes his batting average floor so great. And I still think, you know, if he can get back to where

he was at in the first half last year. We could be talking about a player that does hit 300 over the course of a full season, makes a ton of contact, a 16.3% strikeout rate for his career. He bats second for arguably the best lineup in baseball in the Minnesota Twins. I don't know that he can hit many more home runs

than we saw last year. I think 20 to 22 is probably the ceiling, but I think he can get back to double digit steals. He did that back in 2017. He had 13 in just 1333 games. So something like a 300 batting average, 20 homers, 10 to 12 steals, potentially leads the American League and runs scored hitting in that lineup. I think that that is the ceiling for someone like Jorge Polanco.

Scott, what do you think about Jorge Polanco? It seems like his ADP is so low. Is it because he slowed down a little bit in the second half? Probably a combination of that and just how many great alternatives there are shortstop. I mean, he's obviously the alternative, but you've probably passed up on 15 shortstop. at that point. And, you know, there's not a lot of urgency to take a shortstop by the time you get to the Jorge Polanco range of the rankings.

But I think it does make them undervalued because for most of last season, I had them in a few leagues. I considered him a must-start player with no need to upgrade, really. I've been treating Corey Seeger kind of as my fallback option at shortstop. But there's kind of a double fallback there because I think if I, end up with Jorge Polanco and as my starter probably several rounds later than Seeger goes off the board. It's not such a terrible situation. There is a really high floor there, low strikeout rate, incredible line drive rate, and that's been consistent for him. And if he elevates the ball like he did

last year, he'll probably be a decent home run hitter. I look at last year's stats and more or less buy it. So if you like getting that from your shortstop, then you'll like Jorge Palanco. Adam, last year, Jorge Polanco and Glaber Torres each average 3.3 fantasy points per game. Would you rather draft Glaber Torres in the third round or Jorge Polanco in the 13th? His ADP right now is 148.8. I would say in a points league, Polanco, in a Roto League, Torres, because Polanco has a very good points league profile. He had 40 doubles and seven triples.

We've talked enough about the plate discipline here. And he's going to get a lot of plate appearances and score a lot of runs. So I think he could be really good. I'm much more interested in him in points leagues. He was the number seven shortstop in points leagues last year, number 10 in Roto. So that would be my answer. I think Torres just has like worlds more upside than Polanco.

But yeah, 10 rounds later in a points league, I'll take Polanco. Sean Mania, I will be representing the floor, Scott, which I believe I were on the rundown scoot. You're now scoot. You will be representing the ceiling. That was like a nickname of mine in like fourth grade. Scoot! Are we bringing up some bad memories?

No. No, these were friends. These were not tormentors. I had my share of those. On the floor, scoot is the ceiling. Chris, you will give us your overall thoughts on Sean Minia, whether or not he's a target for you. And what I will say is he made just five starts last year.

He was very good in those starts. One-21 ERA, 078 whip. mind you that came with a 100% strand rate, a 194 BABIP, despite a 47% hard contact rate. He was returning from shoulder surgery last year, but the fastball velocity was down. You kind of give him a little bit of a pass, but it was a touch below 90, which was the lowest it was in his entire career. He allows a lot of fly balls in an environment where you don't really want your starting pitcher to allow fly balls. doesn't get a ton of strikeouts. He's going to be below a strikeout per inning.

I think his floor is a low fours ERA, a 1-25 whip with around 8Ks per 9, which how different is that from someone like Marco Gonzalez? So I'll say that's the floor for Sean Maniah. Scott, what's the ceiling for Sean Minaya? Oh, man, that's the hard one to say. I don't think it's what he showed in 5 starts last year, 121 ERA.78

whip. That is obviously too good to be true. But it was curious watching his recovery last year because he was doing dominant things that we had never seen before from Sean Minaya even on his minor league rehab assignment. And it got you thinking, what's going on with this guy?

He altered his pitch selection to get more swings and misses. But he doesn't throw particularly hard he he's a fly ball pitcher he's in a good division to be a fly ball pitcher in a good park but that's still

you know it's not a good era to be a fly ball pitcher I think I think the upside is probably a low threes ERA

trying to think of a good comp you know a strikeout rate that wouldn't be through the roof but about a strikeout per uh maybe I'm thinking

like Mike Minor last year, but maybe even a little better than that. Chris, what is your overall analysis? What are your takeaways of Shamanai? How do you feel about him in 2020? It's really hard to get a sense for it because he was such a different pitcher, like Scott said, than he ever had been. You know, those 25 innings are 29 to 2 thirds innings, the five starts. It wasn't just that. You know, he made eight starts, 36 and a third innings in the minors. He had a 32% strikeout rate between the majors and minors last season. That's elite. And if that's real, he readjusted, he adjusted the grip on his slider. He started throwing it more out of the zone to try to get swings and misses. That was a big

part of it. And then he talked about throwing the slider harder this spring. I think there are reasons to like Shamanai. I think he's always been a decent pitcher. And if he does get a few more strikeouts, I think a mid-3 ZRA isn't an unfair expectation. He's certainly, a nice mid-round target in fantasy drafts this year. Adam, is Sean Manaya a target for you? I personally never wind up with him because his ADP is right around guys like Matthew Boyd. He's going, you know, about seven picks behind Matthew Boyd.

He's going ahead of Kenta Maeda. It's going ahead of Joe Musgrove. Do you target Shamaniah? Wow. No, I do not target Shamanai. Watch that Joe Musgrove. I'm just saying, I can't believe that they would take him over Joe Musko. No, I like those names better than Mania.

The thing about one thing I want to say about the strikeouts, he made five starts. Four of them were against teams that were among the top four in strikeouts. So he just faced a bunch of teams that strike out all the time. Now, three of those starts were against Texas and Seattle. Maybe there'll be a high strikeout team again. He's going to face Texas and Seattle a lot. If you remove his start against Detroit, Detroit led baseball in strikeouts, you remove his 10 strikeout performance.

against Detroit. Manaya had 20Ks in 22 and two thirds, I think. So I don't buy him as a strikeout per inning guy. No, I don't really high 3 ZRA and an eight strikeout per nine. You got to do things like you got to get a lot of wins, I think, to like really contribute to be like a difference maker in fantasy. That might happen in Oakland. I mean, they have good run support. So we'll see ultimately, but yeah, I'm with you. I'm not really buying the strikeout performance that we saw from Sean Mania last season. Justin Turner, aka Tormund, Giants Bain. Scott, you will be representing the floor. Chris, you're the ceiling for Justin Turner. And then I'll just give my thoughts on Justin Turner. Scott, what do you think? The floor.

In terms of actual performance, the floor is really high. He doesn't strike out much. He has a very steady track record of elite ratios, high batting average especially. But, You know, he's delivered the kind of power numbers you want from a corner infield or two. What provides the floor is really just him being a 35-year-old. He missed a lot of time with small injuries last year. And the Dodgers, of course, are overloaded with talent. So they, he's to that stage of his career where they might just rest them periodically anyway. and third base being, in my mind, the deepest position in fantasy,

maybe the deepest position I've ever seen in fantasy third base this year. It just makes them a total afterthought in fantasy. So, I mean, especially in points leagues, you can't really count on Justin Turner being your starting third baseman this year because of how inconsistently I think he could end up playing. Is that true, Chris? can you really not depend on Justin Turner? What is the ceiling for Turner?

Well, I think the ceiling is incredibly high. I think when Justin Turner is healthy and things are going, right, he's one of the best hitters in baseball. He's in a bit of a decline over the last couple of seasons. He did see the strikeout rate go up last year, but it was still well below average. And so, you know, you're looking at someone who doesn't have an optimal power profile but could hit 30 to 35 homers.

in a best case scenario season. So let's say 35 homers could hit 320. I mean, he could win a batting title. The problem is he's not going to play a full complement of games. And so you're always going to have to find someone to pick up some of the slack, especially in those daily lineup leagues. It's a lot easier to trust him there. Then it is the weekly lineup leagues where you're just not sure how many games

you're going to get from him in any given week. But, you know, the upside is incredibly high. Do you feel like Chris and I just said the exact same thing, but using different words? Well, you know, the thing about Justin Turner, I think that we both hit on is there's not really any question about how good he is. The question is, you know, he's old and he can't stay healthy or hasn't been able to stay healthy in the past. And they've been willing because they have the flexibility to take him out of the lineup. And so on a per game basis, I think he could be a top 10 hitter in fantasy. he's just not going to, he's going to play 80% as many games as most players, even in a good scenario.

Well, skip me this go-around, and Adam, you will step in as the analyst for Justin Turner. He averaged 3.1 fantasy points per game last year, which was just a hair, pun intended, below A. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. H.J.O.S.M.E.T.E.T. Those guys all go considerably higher than him. Yes. Is there a question? Do you have a question? I would you just like me to pick it up from that. Would you mind him as your... Probably not a starting third baseman in a points league, but a utility in a points league,

your corner infielder in a roto league? I think I'd be fine with him as a starting third basement, to be quite honest with you, especially if all he has to do is play 50 games. I feel like you could do that without getting hurt. Maybe. Everybody's going to have different approaches to injury-prone players in shortened seasons,

but maybe he can play 100 games without getting hurt. I don't know. I do think that we don't know. Chris mentioned it. Like there's decline. The plate discipline wasn't as good last year. So you got to be a little bit wary of that. But I know we're going to talk about home run sleepers.

And what I looked up on fan graphs was high hard contact rate plus high fly ball rate. And Justin Turner among qualified hitters is like among the best. You're talking about guys who do both of those that you may not think of as like, oh, he's a home run hitter. Justin Turner really popped on that list last year a 50% hard contact rate and a really high fly ball rate as well and if you could put that together that could be I think Chris said 35

I don't remember if anybody said a number but yeah he could be a mid-30s home run hitter yeah he had 27 in 135 games last year 50% hard contact he is going to miss games or he's going to be rested at times he hasn't played more than 135 games each of the past three seasons He seemingly always misses time. So you got to bake that in. He's older at this point. But when he's on the field,

still expected to bat in the middle of one of the best lineups, maybe probably the best lineup in the National League right now. All right. The last one we're going to do for today. Mike Fultenevich, Chris, you will talk about the floor. I will get the ceiling. And Scott, we've got to get your thoughts on your boy. Atlanta Brave.

Fulte. Fulte. Chris, you're up. The floor. The first half of 29. and the ceiling. And the ceiling is the second half of 2019 or most of 2018.

So I could just leave. You don't even need me for the second. Well, you know, not to be unnecessarily flippant, but that really kind of is the case. We've seen that really wide range of outcomes from him. And the question is, he took a big step forward in 2018. A lot of it was related to his slider.

he doesn't have great control even at the best of times. Actually, I think it's more, he's a prime example of a guy who has maybe okay control, but doesn't have great command. So he tends to get hit hard. He's not as good of a strike out hitter as you want pitcher as you want him to be. He doesn't get as many swinging strikes as you want him to be. And so when things go wrong, I mean, he could be out of the bullpen, out of the rotation. He could be traded for a place.

a player to be named later. Dead pole hitter. I got there. Give a break, Frank. He did the floor and the ceiling. You got to give him two minutes. That's true. I should have just let him go for the whole two minutes.

What I will say is I don't think that the ceiling is what we saw once he returned last year from the miners. You know, he did have a 265 ERA and a 108 whip in his final 10 starts. But I don't think that that is a realistic ceiling. I think a low three's ERR. maybe low threes to mid threes ERA does walk a decent amount of people a walks per nine over three for his career has to get back to the slider that we saw in 2018 you mentioned it Chris I mean the slider was the best it ever was that season so he's got to get that pitch back but I think last year a lot of it was he was coming back from injury so he got up to the slow start got sent down

figured it out in the minors came back up but I think a load of mid three Z array how you're going to how you're going to take the ceiling, make it low to mid-3s, when he went 183 innings with the 285 ERA in 2018. That's just not realistic, though. And then he backed it up after he came back for the minors. And yeah, he had a bone spur in his elbow in spring training. And then he didn't know. He had a delayed start to the season.

I'm going to say, you can't say the ceiling is 0.2 runs higher than what his IRA was for 183 innings. But look at all the year in his career. I just don't, I don't think it makes a lot of sense to say he backed it up when there were four months of trash between the 2018 and what he did the last 11 starts. The ceiling is 2018. He was the number 15 starting pitcher in the road. Yeah, but he outperformed expectations. I don't, even, you know, his peripherals, I think, like, yeah, we all had him as a bust going into last year. I mean, not everybody who was fantasy analyst, but I think everybody on the show did. and frankly, I mean, Frank touched on the narrative aspect that the numbers support.

I mean, he had an elbow injury last spring and didn't really miss a lot of time with it, but wasn't throwing his slider, which is apparently his everything. He wasn't throwing it with the same conviction. And so he was getting shellacked and he got sent to the minors and supposedly rediscovered. it came back and pitched really well. So, I mean, maybe it's as simple as that. But when you look at that 2018 season that Adam is proposing as the ceiling, for having 202 strikeouts in 180-something innings,

he had a really low-swinging strike rate. He had really good home run luck that year that seemed to normalize last year. I mean, it's not like he's a groundball pitcher. He definitely seemed to overachieve that year. His ex-fip was 377 for having a sub-3 ERA. I mean, that's a big difference. I think high-3s ERA with about a strikeout per inning is a reasonable ceiling for Fultenevich.

Take that at him. Like I have... High threes? Yeah, because he's going to give up a lot of home runs, I think. All right, so this guy, there was 183 innings with a 285 ERA and credits it to his slider. then he pitches after bone spurs in his elbow gets crushed because as Scott said didn't have conviction in the slider goes to the minors comes back gets the slider back and

has a 265 ERA and now his ceiling is a high 3 ZRA come on Scott all right all right mid 3 ZRA that's the ceiling there you go I'll compromise yeah do you actually like him Adam or yeah I do devil's advocate no I do I do like him I don't know where he's going but I mean I take him over shamaniah yeah my thing is like Like, even in that stretch, his striker rate was pretty low, right? It was lower. Yeah. When he came back, yeah.

55 strikeouts and 57 and two thirds. The narrative says he fixed the slider. But the whiff rate on the slider, well better than early in the season. It wasn't where it was in 2018. So there's that, too. Yeah, I just, I kind of think you're looking at a best case scenario where he's like a 24% strikeout rate realistically. I just don't think, you know, what he did in 2018, if you look at the rolling game logs, it was basically a really good stretch towards the middle in terms of

strikeouts, and then it just fell dramatically back down to his career norms after that. So I just, I don't, like, hot take, he's, for one, for one reason or another, he's not in the Braves rotation next April. Sheesh. Adam, value for days for you, my man. because Fultenevich, his ADP is 186.6. Sean Minai is 164. So you can get them almost two rounds later. Continue to gobble them up. Right after Luke Weaver, who I also see maybe taking a lot of.

That's not how you say his name. Oh, Luke Weaver. All right, now I'm singing. Everybody's having a great Tuesday. Thanks, Frank. On a Tuesday. Got you excited there. All right, we're going to take a quick break.

When we come back, we are going to take a look at some sleepers in the home runs and the whip categories. We'll be right back. All right, we're back here on fantasy baseball today. Taking a look at some sleepers, some late round contributors in the home runs and whip categories. So I mentioned this at the top. 6,776 home runs were hit last season. That was the most all-time.

Shattering the record set back in 2018. 58 players had... 2017. Back in 20, what I say? 2017? You said 2018, but it was 2017. 2017. Excuse me.

58 players had... had 30 or more home runs last season. 129 had 20 or more home runs. To put that in perspective, back in 2017, 41 had 30 or more home runs. 117 had 20 or more home runs. Which ultimately just means,

Chris, and I know you've looked into the category targets, you need more home runs to compete now than ever. You can't just say, oh, well, I'm going to wait and I'm going to get all my home runs later. I mean, that just means you need more of those home runs to ultimately compete.

Yeah, I mean, it works both ways. there are more home runs available, including later in the draft. So in that instance, you can say, well, you can wait for home runs. But to find home runs that won't crush you elsewhere, you probably do need to make a couple of guys early on who can hit 35 to 40 home runs and help you in batting average a priority. Otherwise, you're really going to take a hit and batting average. That's one of the home runs is really a category where you might have to sacrifice batting average if you don't get them early enough. Scott, who are some home run sleepers that you look for if you're trying to play catch up in that category late in a roto or head-to-head categories draft? Well, it depends how we define late, but I'm going beyond Fran Mill Reyes because he goes 120.

Let's say outside the top 150. Okay, so that'll take Kyle Schwerber off the board. The first name, it's not somebody I draft that often, but Edwin and Carnacione, I mean, the expectation for him is probably right around 35 home runs. With a lowish batting average, but not necessarily as bad as it was last year. I know Adam likes him a lot.

I think a really popular candidate throughout the industry is Chris Davis. With a K. Yeah. It's good to you point that out. I mean, I thought about it, but then I'm like, we're beyond the point where we talk about the other. He had that week in the spring. Scott was excited. Oh, I'm surprised Willie Calhoun is going even later than Chris Davis.

I like Willie Calhoun a lot more myself. How come you haven't said Mark Kana yet? I don't think he has. I mean, he might, I guess upside he has the same kind of home run upside is all but Chris Davis. as that group I just mentioned. I could see him having a 35 Homer Pace season. That's basically how he performed

as a starter last year. But it's more the all-around skill set I like about Kana. So I wasn't thinking of him in terms so much as a home run specialist. But yeah, sure. Let's put him in that mix too.

Adam. Justin Upton. I'm not out of him. Justin Upton is definitely one that I like as well. I didn't know if you were done there. Scott, do you have anyone else you wanted to throw out there? I think I hit the big names

and there are concerns about all of them I will point out the two I'm enthusiastic about are Willie Cahoon and Mark Kenna I actually think they have the least concerns and I say that knowing Canna is a 31 year old who just broke out last year Adam when it comes to home runs

you're trying to play some catch up in a roto league who are you looking for some late round contributors that can help you in that category yeah and Carnaccio is the first one and you just have to make sure you have enough batting average because he's going to kill you there. Luke Vozartist's steal this from Chris, but Luke Voight is definitely going to be one as well.

Yep. I don't really, I don't really know, like, I know you have CJ Cronless that I'm not going for him. I guess I just haven't really gone this route with home runs. So it's basically just Yankees and former Yankees with Encarnazio and Voigt. those are the first two.

Boo. I'm missing here. I don't know. I'll chime in. I don't target home runs late like this. Go ahead. I don't know if I'm stepping on somebody's toes here. But another way of looking at this is,

like if you get to the late stages of the draft and you don't have a shortstop yet, most of the short stops you could take at that point aren't really going to contribute much at home runs, but Paul DeYoung might. So I don't know that I called the young a sleeper for home runs in the general sense, but just relative to what else you could find at that same position, I think he is. Yeah, I mean, Chris, for me, typically, I avoid players like Pete Alonzo and Aaron Judge and John Carlos Stanton because I'm focused on specifically, you know,

guys that can contribute across the board early, but I want to secure my batting average and I want to get those scarce stolen bases early on. So I do typically target a lot of home run hitters late. Do you have any in mind for you? Yeah, I agree with a lot of the other ones. To follow up on Scott's point about Paul DeYoung, you know, Will Smith goes 159th overall. He's not necessarily, you know, a late rounder for catcher and a lot of people like him as a breakout candidate. But, you know, if you are lagging in power, one way you can make up for it is by getting an edge at a place where, you know, most people aren't going to get much production. Will Smith has the potential to do that at least.

I'll also throw out Hunter Dozier, who probably was on a 30 plus home. That's a great call. Yeah, he was on a 30 plus Homer Pace last season and before the oblique injury. He had one of those situations where it's tough to know whether his late season slide was just him turning back into a pumpkin or whether it was the result of the injury. In his case, because it was an oblique injury, and those are so tough to. come back from. You know, I think there's there's value in giving him the benefit of the doubt in a way that most people aren't right now. I'll also say Luke Voight, I'll say Justin Upton, and then there's a couple of guys who I don't necessarily count on for home runs right now,

but have the potential to contribute if they make some changes to their game. And most specifically, I'm referring to Ryan McMahon and Eric Hosmer, who both have the raw power, power, they just have to elevate the ball in both cases a bit more. And then Christian Walker, we haven't mentioned him, but Christian Walker has borderline elite stat cast data, you know, has tons of raw power. His approach isn't totally broken to the point where I think he could be a 35 homer guy in a full season. Yeah, I'll throw some boring names out there, guys that are on bad teams. Adam mentioned CJA Cron as someone he doesn't want. But in a Roto League, I don't think he's so bad.

55 home runs over his last two seasons. He was on a 32 home run pace last year, ranked very highly in stat-cast numbers last year with the Minnesota Twins. Not a great ballpark to hit him with Detroit, but should have the opportunity to play every day. And then Renato Nunez, who is basically, I guess, in the opposite kind of situation there

because he hits in a great ballpark. He has Camden. He puts the ball in the air. He hits a lot of fly balls. And it seems to be a recipe for home run success. He had 31 home runs last year with a 244 batting average. He also had like a 32 home run season in the minors with the Oakland A's. So don't sleep on Renato Nunez.

I think he's going to play a lot for the Baltimore Orioles just because they don't really have a lot of players to play. I want to throw three deeper names. I'm going to throw some other names out there too, Scott. I've got one more too. All right. Who gets to go first, Frank? Randall Gritchick.

Oh, well, all right, Adam. He sucks, though. All he does is in homebuzz. And that's the problem with these guys. Like, I know how this works. Like 12 team leagues, these are waiver wire guys. I got some breakout players who go really late. Tyler O'Neill, who may have a full-time job for the Cardinals.

Two years ago, he had 26 home runs in 64 games in AAA. Austin Riley, I would, if he has an everyday job for the Braves, I would not at all be surprised if you led that team in home runs. and that's a team with a first round bat in Acuna and a second round bat in Freeman. So Austin Riley is a big one for me. And then one, I'm surprised you guys haven't mentioned yet because you like them all. You all seem to like them a lot more than I do.

Ian Hap. I have his player page pulled up Scott White. Ian Hap, yes, I take him. I try to take him when I can, yes. Chris, did you have anyone else? Yeah, we haven't mentioned Aris-Equino. He is someone who definitely benefits from the introduction. of the DH and the lack of minor leagues this year, he might have an everyday job and

obviously has huge power as he showed last season. Michael Chavis, you know, he was someone we were really interested in for a little while last season. The strikeouts caught up to him, but he's played 124 games between the majors and AAA in his career. And he has 27 home runs. So that's close to a 35 homer pace. I was going to say Tyler O'Neill, like, like Scott said. And that's, that's, that's probably it. We could definitely find more. Nick Solac probably has 30 homer potential in a full season.

Has to lift the ball more. Yeah. Yeah, I think we're good. Chavis is interesting. It's just a matter of whether or not he's going to play every day. They re-signed Mitch Morland. They have Jose Paraza on the roster. So you didn't know if he was going to technically play second base every day

or if he was going to play some days at first base. but no, that's definitely an interesting name to pay attention to. He came up last year and was great until he wasn't. And hey, Eric Thames might play pretty regularly for the Nationals. He has the name that we probably have not mentioned even after he signed with the Nationals, I don't think. But if he plays every day against Reities, we know he has tons of power. I've drafted him as a corner infielder in a 15-team Roto League somewhere.

So, yeah, it's not out of the realm, possibility. The whip category. The league average whip in 2019 was 1.33, which is basically where it's been at for the past decade. It's fluctuated a little bit up, a little bit down, but it's basically where it's been at overall. Last season, there were five qualified starting pitchers with a sub 1-1 whip, and there were 15 with a 1.10 whip or less. This is a little bit of a tougher task here, Scott. Do you have any starters in mind? Is this another one like yesterday?

I asked you for relievers who might help you in the ERA categories. I think a lot of those same relievers can probably help you with WIP if you need help in season. But any starting pitchers come to mind that, let's say, outside the top 150, 175 ADP that you could see contributing in WIP? Well, the first one that comes to mind is Matthew Boyd, who was for all his struggles last year it wasn't it wasn't whip it was probably one of the biggest disparities in era and whip and the entire league uh i think i think kenta mayada would fit into this category as well

i think he has the room to improve across the board but one area he's never struggled with is allowing base runners i think sean minaya who he just talked about he's he's shown great control for most of his career so while he may struggle with the era i don't think you have to worry about him having a high whip. It's basically, it's basically pitchers who would be good if they didn't allow so many fly balls. That's, that's probably the way to simplify how you approach this. I mean, Jose or Kiti could be another sleeper for whip for that same reason. That's a good one. Yeah. And one thing to keep in mind, too, is, there are a lot of pitchers I could point to point out who are.

breakout candidates, just have a ton of upside, Josh James, and Nate Pearson, Mitch Keller, guys like that. If they do break through, it would be in a way where I would expect the effect to be wholesale, impacting their numbers across the board. So you could think of them in terms of, oh, maybe he's a whip specialist, or maybe he's an ERA specialist, a strikeout specialist, whatever. You could think of them that way. Obviously, they're not as proven as some of the names I just threw out.

there but the upside may actually be greater so you know it just depends on what you're looking for at that stage of the draft are you looking for a secure option to help you in that one category are you looking at a potential game changer who could help you in that category I think they're I think with starting pitchers especially it's it's hard to boil it down to just uh what category do they succeed in because it's oftentimes all or nothing I do want to there's there's a couple guys who fit into that like breakout but could also just be helpful in whip you know you look at a guy like armand marquez who had really high expectations last year was a huge disappointment finishing with a 476 era however he still had a 1.20 whip and he still had you know a decent

number of strikeouts he doesn't walk anybody at all um you know i think at the very least he's a must star guy on the road. And, you know, that's, I think that makes him a decent value where he's going. I think also, you know, someone like Joe Musgrove, another guy who we like to break out a lot, should be helpful in whip regardless, another guy who had a 1.22 whip. And then Anthony Descalfani, who we haven't really talked much about it. All, I think there's a lot of skepticism about his chances of repeating the 389 ERA last season.

but he does have good control. The strike rate was up last season. And, you know, he could be a league average ERA guy who is, you know, very helpful in whip. Yeah, I was thinking, you said league average right there. I'm like, Deis Glafani is a jag, man. But he could be a whip jag. You know, you look at it. 1-20 last year.

It's not bad. Yeah, he strikeout rate above average, walk rate below average. And I think he had like an average ground ball. rate. So it's not out of the question that he can be another year with a 3-8 ERA or something in that range with a good whip. And that's a very good starting pitcher. It's not a must-start guy, but in a fantasy league, he's probably someone you keep in your lineup most weeks. I've read an interesting article about Hermannes last night on The Athletic, saying how having Yubaldo Jimenez around has helped him, having like that veteran presence who has been through it all.

So we'll see if that helps Hermann Marquez here in 2020, assuming there's a season. Adam, whip it. Whip it good. Well, Yanni Chorino's worth looking at through 133 innings last year or something like that. He had a 105 whip. Ryan Yarbrough, too. Yeah, you know, Chirino's, I think the Babbitt was pretty low, like 250. So I don't expect the hit rate to be as low as it was 7.6.

but maybe he can give you a 1-1-5 whip or something like that, which would be really good over 133 in the third innings. You know, it would be, well, obviously, he's not going to throw that many innings this year. But if he's used for multiple innings at a time, yeah, the raise pitching staff. I just think that Ryan Presley, he's like 45th in ADP among relievers. And he's on the short list of best relievers in baseball.

Ryan Presley didn't finish that strong because he's, He was pitching through a knee injury. He struggled badly in the playoffs. But he did not give up a run in his first 19 appearances for the Astros. And that was after he got traded from the twins in 2018. And Presley had a 0.77 ERA with the Astros in 2018. And then he starts 2019 without giving up a run in his first 19 appearances. And in the second half, you know, he was pretty much lights out in 13 outings.

He had 11 scoreless outings. And he had two outings where he gave up seven runs. But bottom line is that he's he's amazing. Strikeouts, whip, ERA, he's not going to get you saves. But if you're just trying to tap Hap AMC it and you just want to get your ratios down, Ryan Presley needs to be owned in any league where middle relievers are started.

Did you meet your quota of one time saying tap Hap AMC? It's actually the quota is two times. So we haven't quite gotten there. Well, we do have some questions that we're going to get to. Who knows? Maybe it could still happen. I will also just throw a few more relievers in the mix there. Now that you mentioned Ryan Presley, Emilio Pagan, Seth Lugo, and Chad Green are also players that I can see being contributors in WIP. And Rich Hill is the starting pitcher for me, a 1-1-3 whip or less in each of the past four seasons.

He's still so buried in ADP that I overlook him in all these discussions. 50 games. That's all we need, Rich Hill. 50 games, baby. He's a sleeper in every category. I don't know if we really, like, if he, you know, if he pitches every game, he's going to be a top 15 or top 20 starter. Emails, fantasy baseball at cbsi.com, continue to send in your emails or leave a five-star Apple podcast review and drop a question there. That's exactly what King Dylan 2424 did. He's in a 10-team dynasty, head-to-head categories, grade the trade.

Get your pens ready because he basically traded teams with an entire... team. So let's see here. Why did you put this in the email? We have to have a talk about it. But I didn't say it here. I mean, he, he dropped it in the Apple podcast for you. I was like, uh, you know, we've got to hook him up, man. He gets it red. Fair enough. Max Scherzer, he gave up. Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander. This was a 10 for 10 trade. No, no joke. Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Yu Darvish, Heungin Ryu, Lance Lynn, Jose Abrae, Stalling Marte, Liam Hendrix, Craig Kimbrel, Tim Anderson. The average age of those players is 32.4 years old.

He received Mike Siroka, Gavin Lux, A.J. Puck, Dylan Sees, Kyle Tucker, Andrew Vaughn, Jose Berrios, David Dahl, Mitch Keller, and Matt Chapman. The average age 24.1 years old. Scott, you talked about your Dynasty League and how you've been. like to retool? I would say this is a little bit more than retooling. Yeah, I got total youth movement here

and you got a lot of high upside players, the sort of prospects or recently graduated prospects that would be in high demand. I think the only totally proven player here, well, there's Matt Chapman and probably Jose Perrios

would be totally proven too at this point. I ever go in youth movement and you're not, you know, you're willing to sacrifice this year. And it may not even be that big of a sacrifice. It's hard to say. But you're giving up a lot more immediate contributions

than you're getting back. I think it's fair to assume that much. You know, you might still be 10-team league. You probably won't be decent. Yeah, that's the thing. Like 10-team league? Okay, so I guess my main, the main takeaway I have here

is that you're probably going to get a better return trading off these parts individually than lumping them into one giant trade like this. That would probably be the most actionable advice I could give to general listening out there is just like even if you want to sell up

high impact old guys for prospects, it's probably better to do it in a piecemeal fashion than like this. I'll just leave it at that. Yep. Next one's from Brian. Good morning. Dex Hart, Jam, Milton and Hauser.

Oh, those are Council people in Parks and Rec. That is correct. Another show. You just got jammed. Another show I have not watched. Is it worth it? Is it a good show?

Yes. Oh, come on. Is it a good show? Better than the office. False. All right. Well, Chris has worked his last podcast ever here on fantasy baseball today. It's at least close.

Chris is particularly sour on the office, which he'll admit. Also better. Chris, is there a reason? I've got to get back to the state. You haven't watched Breaking Bad? Oh,

I just don't, I don't watch hour-long dramas, really. I don't have the attention span for it. I'm like a little baby. All right. Well, so interesting,

because you listen to podcasts. Yeah, you should probably change that. Yeah. Well, podcasts are like a, it's okay. You can multitask.

Yeah, podcasts are like, oh, I'm cooking or I'm walking the dog. You know, bring mad like, You got to watch it. Yeah, you do. You do have to watch it.

That's asking a lot. This was from Brian, 10-team head-to-head Categories League. After waiting until the 22nd round of my draft to pick a second baseman, I ended up taking Starlin Castro. Here are other available options. David Fletcher, Colton Wong, Adam Frazier, Cesar Hernandez, Hanser Alberto, Luis Araiz, D. Gordon, Freddie Galvis, Colin Moran,

in a 10-te-to-head categories league. Yikes. I would say probably Cesar Hernandez, because I don't think David Fletcher's going to have an everyday job. If he does, I actually don't mind David Fletcher in a categories league. This might be a little too deep for, or a little too shallow for him, but he's someone who could easily hit 300 and steal 15 to 20 bases in a full season,

and that's pretty useful. So, yeah, I would go Cesar Hernandez. because I think you're likely to get some help in at least three categories. Yeah, I like Cesar. I have him back to back with Starlin Castro. I have Castro one spot higher, so I'd probably just stick with Starlin Castro in this one. Adam, this isn't an opportunity for you to say Tapp HAP-A-M-C, but do you have an opinion? Actually, I already said Tappap-A-M-C while people were arguing about the office or whatever.

I stuck it in there for the listeners. I think Seza Hernandez is trash. He is a useless player. Oh, my God. Starlin Castro has some upside. It's not nice. I've been right about Seizor Hernandez for like five straight years. He's my Chris Archer of hitters.

Yes, I have. Am I going to have to let Heath know about this? He plays like a bunch of games and he accumulates some stats. He is a useless player in fantasy. You don't want, you're never going to be like, well, I'm cool. second base. I've got Cesar Hernandez. You're always going to want something better. He was hitting near the top of the lineup in spring training. You're probably going to feel that way about all of the guys that were mentioned in this email, but at least Castro getting out of

Marlins Park. He had a big second half. Let's see where it goes. I would start the year with Castro and see if there's something there. There probably isn't. But see if there's something there. Also, he has a team name Tuesday. We haven't done this in a while. If you have any team name Tuesday, send them in. Honeynut Berrios. Oh gosh, that is like recycled. And all the people, goody. I'm not going to crap on it like Adam because I'm not a jerk. I'm sorry, you're right.

It is, we've heard it a lot, but it is, it is good. And Honey Nut Cheerios is a top five cereal. I would agree with that. Cherinos. Big fan of Honey Nut Cheerios. How come nobody does Honey Nut Cherinos? That would be a good one. I'm sure we've seen it before.

I don't think anybody thinks about it. My favorite of the cereal theme team names is still Zimmerman Toast Crunch. Another top five. Yeah. The best cereal. French Toast Crunch. Greater Sign Cinnamon Toast Crunch. Golden Gramps.

No. Tap A.m. What did? We're not going to let Frank get away with saying that, are we? I hadn't even listened. Honey bunches of oats with almonds today. It was great. He said French toast crunch is better than cinnamon toast crunch.

Yeah, that's awful. That's a garbage. That's one of those things where, like, I've never even had French toast. crunch, might know he's wrong. What? You don't want to. I tried it and it was gross. It's just like, come on, you don't, you don't really believe that. All right. Well, this will be our last episode of fantasy baseball today ever. It was nice knowing all of you. Thank you all for supporting the podcast. Just kidding. We will be back again tomorrow for Adam, Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thank you all for listening. Bye-bye.