Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨Framber Valdez to the Detroit Tigers! - Emergency Podcast (2/4 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)
Episode Date: February 5, 2026Framber Valdez is headed to the Detroit Tigers on a three-year, $115 million deal that includes an opt out after the second year! How does Valdez fit in Detroit? How much will he move up in ADP? The T...igers updated rotation looks great but will Tarik Skubal stick around? Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CPTowers @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Now here's Frank Scott and Chris.
Finally, the last big domino comes off the board.
Framber Valdez to the Tigers.
Welcome into an emergency edition of Fantasy Baseball today on Wednesday night, February 4th.
I am Frank Stamphill joined by Chris Towers.
Here I was, minding my own business, prepping for a catcher preview, Chris.
Boom.
Massive news here, Framber Valdez to the Tigers on a three-year, $115 million deal.
The deal includes deferrals.
we haven't learned about those yet, at least not to my knowledge,
and an opt-out after year two.
One of the game's true workhorses here, Valdez,
has the second most innings pitched in baseball since 2022 behind only Logan Webb.
Yes, last season, he had a rough second half,
but he's consistently just been a rock solid SP2 for fantasy for quite some time now.
And we've talked a lot about the mental side of the game for Framber Valdez.
everybody knows or should know by now what happened with Valdez and his catcher in Houston late last season crossed him up, you know, through the ball at his chest.
You know, he's had some issues that he's worked through.
But he's reunited with his former manager, AJ Hinch.
I actually think that's a pretty good thing for him.
What do you think about the landing spot here, Chris, Framber Valdez to Detroit?
Yeah, I think there's a lot to like about the landing spot for Framber Valdez.
It's a competitive team.
It's a good ballpark.
And, you know, I think that mental side is important here, you know, because,
for Amber Valdez is someone who he's been pretty open about, you know, his struggles to keep his composure on the mound.
He's talked about, you know, seeing a sports psychologist or sports therapist and having that help him a lot through throughout his career, getting him on track.
And, you know, as far as the rough second half of last season goes, I don't really care, you know, as far as we're projecting forward.
because he just goes through stretches like this.
And then that's true of every pitcher.
But you look at 2023.
He has a 466 ERA after the All-Star break,
729 ERA in the month of July especially.
Well, that came after a 251 ERA in the first half of the season.
He was below three each of the first three months.
You look at 2024, it's kind of the opposite.
First three months of the season, 366 ERA.
Second half, he has a 196 ERA.
So it's all to say that this is a guy who, because he relies so much on that curveball,
and it's a big looping type of curveball, I think this kind of inconsistency is probably just inherent to him as a pitcher.
You know, I think of when we had Nick Pollock on the show a couple weeks ago for an SP discussion,
he talked about how, you know, he tends to be down on pitchers who throw their splitter as a primary pitch or their main secondary pitch.
I guess.
And that's because it's really hard to command that pitch consistently.
It's a great put-away pitch often, but throwing it for strikes can be inconsistent.
And I kind of think that way about Frambervaldez.
It's just kind of he goes as his feel for the curveball goes.
And when the curve ball is going really well, as it was in the second half of 2024,
when he was throwing it nearly 40% of the time, he can be dominant.
And when he loses the feel for that pitch, things can go off the rails a little bit for him.
but at the end of the day,
what you almost always get from Framber Valdez
is 190 to 200 innings.
He's done 193 out of the last four years.
You always get ERA,
usually in the mid-3s, sometimes around three,
usually get a pretty good but not great whip.
And I think that'll mostly be true in Detroit.
So I think,
worst-case scenario,
I think we're holding steady on Framber Valdez.
And he's been a deal.
decent discount in a lot of draft because he's gone on unsigned. But now that he's signed,
I do expect that price to go up. Yeah, there is a level of unknown him pitching for a team in a
location that he's never pitched before. He has started games in Comerica Park, but obviously
not as a Detroit Tiger. So it does add a level of unknown, but someone who, again, while he isn't
the most consistent pitcher from one month to the next, one half to the next, what he gives you by
the end of the season has been pretty consistent throughout his career. So I actually do like the
landing spot a lot in terms of AJ Hinch being there. The ballpark is a great park to pitch in.
It's a great division to pitch in as well. You look at the defense behind him, that part could be
better. I don't think it's a bad defense, but last year they were between like 10th and 16th in a lot
of the advanced metrics that I looked at from a team-wide perspective there for the Tiger.
So they're not a bad defensive team, but they're, you know, they're just kind of average.
Maybe, you know, in the upper half of the baseball, but, you know, not one of the better teams, I would say.
You definitely wish for a groundball pitcher like Framber Valdez that the shortstop position in Detroit was better.
And look, maybe it's just, you know, I think roster resource has Zach McKinstree at shortstop.
I would guess have your bias is going to play a little bit there as well.
Maybe Kevin McGonigal soon.
And then Kevin McGonigal, who is viewed as.
a passable defensive shortstop
and not necessarily like a gold glover.
You know, someone who I think in the long term
may not be a shortstop, but he's fine there.
They have Trace Sweeney as well,
but I don't know if he's going to play a big role.
So that's the one hiccup is you do wish that the defensive,
the infield defense was a little better on the Detroit side of this.
Yep.
If you look at the ADP from the last two weeks,
you mentioned Chris, I mean, it's just been lagging behind all season.
I know for the NFBC, a lot of times if a player remains unsigned,
it does keep their draft costs down a little bit.
I always thought it was just way too low for Frember Valdez.
Again, he has been a pretty consistent SP2 throughout his career.
The ADP of the last two weeks is 100 as the SP 25 off the board.
I think that probably moves up a little bit here,
and I think he probably should be going closer to where Kyle Bradish,
Lizardo, Dylan Cesar, and that's in the 75 to 80 range of 80p.
Yeah, I agree with that.
I think to a certain extent, it does depend on the format.
I think Framber is probably a better head-to-head points pitcher than a roto pitcher
because he's, you know, kind of average-ish when it comes to whip.
He doesn't get a lot of strikeouts per inning, although the end total usually ends up pretty good.
I'm trying to see where he went.
We did a head to head points mock on Wednesday night.
No.
Tuesday?
Today's Tuesday.
Tonight is Wednesday.
And he went, okay, he went pretty early.
He went 63rd in that one.
So the third pick of the sixth round.
I think that's probably about right in a head to head points league.
I think you look at his overall ADP in the NFBC format, 97.2.
Like you said, I look at.
George Kirby around 72,
Freddie Peralta,
Logan Webb,
I think that range makes a lot of sense for Frember Valdez.
Yep.
Let's take a quick break when we return.
We'll take a look at the Tigers updated rotation.
We'll do that right after this.
Welcome back in Fantasy Baseball today again.
Big news for Amber Valdez to the Tigers on a three-year deal.
He can opt out after the second year.
The Tigers updated rotation,
Terrick Scouble, Framber Valdez,
Jack Flarity, Casey Mize, Reese Olson.
I think this is probably bad news for Troy Melton.
And a pitcher they signed from the KBO, Drew Anderson,
who actually put up some pretty big numbers there
and lots of strikeouts as well.
He's an unknown here.
But again, there was, I guess, a very deep sleeper case for him.
Now, I'm not so sure.
And look, injuries are going to happen.
So perhaps Troy Melton could still find his way into the rotation at some point.
But Chris, this is a great rotation overall from a real-life perspective.
I've seen a couple people ask in the chat and on Twitter,
you know, what does this mean for Terrick Scouble?
Well, still going through that arbitration case.
I think we're actually going to find out tomorrow or the day after that.
Yeah, I think it happened on Tuesday.
Yeah, so we're going to find out very soon on that,
how much he's going to be paid this season.
I think the Tigers are going for it this year.
I don't think you sign for Amber Valdez to a three-year deal
with an opt-out after year two with the intention of trading away Terik Scouble.
I think you want those guys together.
You're going to give it, you know, one.
Great shot here in 2026, and then I guess we'll figure out what happens from there.
But my guess is Terrick Scuba will remain with the Tigers.
I think that's much more likely than not.
It's obviously not guaranteed, but I don't know.
I can't imagine whether they win or lose the arbitration case is going to play a role in that.
That would feel...
I don't think so either.
That would just send such a bad sign to your fan base.
like, oh, we had to trade Terrick Scouble
because he's making $10 million more
than we thought he would.
Like that seems silly and self-defeating.
And I think the way the contract is structured
actually plays a part in that too
because I think we all mostly expect
Terrick's Google to be gone next off-season.
He's going to get, as long as he's healthy,
the biggest contract in history for a pitcher, probably.
Yeah.
Amamoto got, what, 325?
Yeah, and at Garrick Cole was around 310.
I wouldn't be surprised if we're looking at 400?
Eight years, 400 million for Terrick Scoobal.
What if he wins a third Cy Young heading into third Sion in a row
heading into Free Agency too?
So I think it's unlikely he returns.
And then you look at the way the contract is structured, deferred money,
but also the opt-out is after the second year.
rather than the first. I think before a show earlier this week, we were talking about Framber,
and I think I said like 3-100 with an opt-out after the first year, he did better than I thought.
And I think the opt-out after the second year could make him a very valuable trade ship next off-season.
If and when Terrick Scouble leaves, they can either, hey, we're going to ride with Framber as our ace and try to keep competing.
We've got, you know, Melton who can slide into the rotation.
they've got some depth there.
Or you can say, hey, we lost Terrick Scoubel.
Maybe we do a soft reset.
Trade Framber Valdez.
Come back 2028 and try to compete.
I think both of those are on the table.
And I think with the way this contract is structured,
it's entirely possible that that's the way they're viewing it.
Yeah.
And anything can happen if the Tigers get off to a slow start this year
or just for some weird reason,
have a just a really bad first half.
At that point, then they're thinking a little bit more about trading Terrick Scubel in season,
but I would still bet on him being there for this year and them competing in a division
that's obviously not great.
Very winnable division.
Very solid team, if not a very good team, if Scubel and Framber especially pitched to
what they're capable of.
And I do want to go back to, I don't necessarily know that Troy Melton is not going to be in
this rotation.
I would guess Reese Olson has a leg up, but
Reese Olson's had a lot of trouble staying healthy
the past couple of seasons.
We like him a lot.
We think there's a lot of upside there,
but we think there's some upside for Troy Melton, too.
I'm not sure Reese Olson is necessarily that much better than Troy Melton.
So if they go into spring training with that as an open competition for the fifth starter spot,
I wouldn't be very surprised.
I think we'll see plenty of Troy Melton this season either way,
so don't forget the name,
even if he loses that rotation battle.
Um, and yeah, I, I think it's a solid, solid signing and Framber remains a solid SP2.
And I don't know, man, this thing where players prices get suppressed because they haven't
signed, it always feels kind of silly to me because.
Yeah.
Framber Valdez was never going to sign with a bad team.
You know, maybe he signs with a, oh, worse situation than you'd otherwise hope.
But like, there was that report earlier today before he signed that the pirates were in on him.
and had been very aggressive.
And it's like, that would have been fine.
Yeah.
Like, where was Framber Valdez going to sign that you're like, oh no?
Framber Valdez stinks now.
Like, he wasn't going to Colorado, you know?
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
He wasn't going to Cincinnati.
I mean, I agree with you completely.
I've done four early drafts over at the NFBC.
I have him on, I believe, three of those teams so far.
That's smart.
As my SP2 on all of them.
So I'm, yeah, I will definitely.
Rock solid SP2.
And a passable SP1.
You know, like probably shouldn't be your SP1, but if you really go cheap,
getting a guy who's probably going to throw 190 good innings,
there are worse things in the world.
Yep.
Again, Framber Valdez, big news.
Headed to the Detroit Tigers.
Last two weeks, the ADP SP 25, according to the NFBC, we are all higher than that so far in our ranking.
Scott has him at SP 18.
I have him at 19.
Chris at 22.
So buy the dip if you still can, but my guess is Frambervaldez is probably going to move up a little bit.
We are going to wrap there for Chris.
I am Frank.
Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today.
Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify.
And we will be back again in like an hour and a half to talk about catchers.
Bye-bye.
