Fantasy Baseball Today - Frank's Top-Five ADP Gifts in Early Drafts! (Fantasy Baseball Today in 5 Podcast)

Episode Date: December 23, 2022

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Yesterday we did the Welsh's top 5 ADP gifts. Now let's talk about mine. Up next on Fantasy Baseball, today in five. Welcome into MBT and 5. Today is Friday, December 23rd. Happy holidays to all out there. I am Frank Stamphel and I am all alone giving you my top 5 ADP gifts

based on early NFBC drafts. And let's start with a first basement. Someone you can draft as your corner infielder, a utility bat, someone you just stick on the bench, and I think there's a ton of upside in. Tristan Kossis got off to a slow start. His first 14 games last year hit 079 with a 27% strikeout rate. His final 13 games, 316 batting average, 22% strikeout rate.

He also had five games in his 27 games played. Three of those to the opposite field. This guy has legit all fields power. We're talking two opposite field home runs over 400 feet, over the green monster. One of them came against Garrett Cole. The power is easy. When it comes to Tristan Kossis, he also has fantastic plate discipline, 19 walks to 23 strikeouts. That'll help you out in a points league as well.

I think he is going to get off to a great start, move up in the lineup, lots of run RBI opportunities, lots of power as well coming for Tristan Kossis. Let's jump into my number four ADP gift, and it is a pitcher this time. Jeffrey Springs, who's going at an ADP of 176 among starting pitchers with at least 130 innings pitch last season, Jeffrey Springs, 20.6% K-minus walk rate, 15th best. His 13.5% swinging strike rate, 13th best. Each of his FIP, his ex-FIP, Sierra, X-ERA, whatever ERA indicator you want to look at. 3.32 or less for Jeffrey Springs last year.

He is a legit, great pitcher. That's what he showed us this past season. The only question mark we have is innings. What is he going to provide? He had a huge jump from 44 and two thirds in 2021 to 135 and a third this past season. Maybe there's some lasting effects for that, but I trust the talent and I trust the Tampa Bay raise. They typically do a great job getting the most out of their pitchers. I think they'll do the same thing again this year with Jeffrey Springs.

Number three on this list, Lars Neupar, 80p 199. He only hit 228, but he had a 15% walk rate, 340 OBP, 14 homer, four steals, and the stackass data is great. 90th percentile average exit velocity, 85th percentile barrel rate, and as a left-handed batter, one thing that I love, love, and a young hitter,

is when they can also hit left-handed pitching. 273 batting average, 846 OPS. His name got brought up in trade rumors. The Cardinals shot them down. They don't want to trade this guy. I understand. There's a log jam. They have a lot of outfielers right now.

They have a few DH eligible players. These things work themselves out. They'll either make a trade, somebody will get hurt, but talent wins out. And Lars Neupar is extremely talented. I think the Cardinals need a left-handed bat like this in their lineup, someone who's got some pop, someone who can get on base, and I think he's going to do exactly that. I think the batting average comes up a little bit,

provide some power, handful of steals, great on base percentage, Lars Neupar, someone I'm targeting regardless of format. Number 2, ADP gift is another starting pitcher, another left-handed starting pitcher, I just realized that. Hazes-Losardo with an ADP of 152, if it were up to me,

I would just draft all the Marlins every single year in fantasy baseball, but then I'd also have no wins on my fantasy team. So that is the unfortunate part of it, but I think they're all so talented. Specifically for Lazzardo, among starting pitchers with 100-ennings pitch last season,

21.3% K-minus walk rate, that was tied for 16th best with Zach Wheeler. Zach Wheeler is someone who typically goes inside of the top 50 picks of drafts year in and year out. The swinging strike rate for Hazers Lizardo last year, 13.8%. 16th best. His Sierra, 3.28, 19th best. All the analytics that I look at for starting pitchers, he's top 20 in each of those categories. It's not being drafted as a top 20 starting pitcher.

Typically goes in that SP 35 to SP40 range. Mention the ADP is 152. You can pick them up as your third or fourth starting pitcher in drafts. The guy is great. He throws mid-90s with the fastball. He's got a curve and a change-up that both have a whiff rate over 40%. The problem and why he is being drafted a little bit later

is that he hasn't been able to stay healthy. So if he could stay healthy, put up 150, 160 innings. I think there is huge return on investment when it comes to Jesus Lazzardo. And number one, my top ADP gift as of now, based on early drafts, is Corey Seeger, someone going inside of the top 100. His ADP right now is 71.

I think he could provide top 20 value. And he does it in a different way than we see other players do it. He doesn't steal bases. But I think we could see a monster season in terms of batting average and power next season for Corey Seeger. This past year, he hit 245, his XBA, 283. He slugged 455. His ex-slug, 510. 91.1 average exit velocity that was 86 percentile, 10 and a half percent barrel rate.

career high, 33 home runs, his first year in Texas on a massive contract. They're getting rid of the shift. I think the batting average skyrockets this year. It is within the range of outcomes that Corey Seeger can hit 300 plus with 35 plus home runs this year. Good counting stats in the middle of a solid Texas Rangers lineup. And if he does that, he's likely returning top 20 overall value. Right now, you're getting Corey Seeger just outside of the top 70 in early NFBC drafts.

For more extensive fantasy baseball coverage, listen to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcast, the Odyssey app, or anywhere else podcasts are found, and thanks for listening to Fantasy Baseball Today in Five. We'll be back again next week. Bye-bye.