Fantasy Baseball Today - Free Agency is Over... For Now! Are These Players Done with Micah Henry! (12/2 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 2, 2021

Joining us on today's podcast is Micah Henry from NBC Sports Edge (2:30)! ... Javier Baez signed a six-year deal with the Detroit Tigers (3:20)! ... Marcus Stroman signed a three-year contract with th...e Chicago Cubs (7:36)! ... We had a bunch more free agency moves, including lots of relievers (11:27). ... Which players were non-tendered (20:59)? ... Are these players done (27:57)? Let's start with Cody Bellinger. ... Is Christian Yelich's back injury too much to overcome (32:18)? ... Everything finally caught up to Kyle Hendricks (36:00). ... Francisco Lindor had a rough first season with the Mets (41:27). ... Has Gleyber Torres just lost it (46:36)? ... What happened to Hyun-Jin Ryu (50:02). ... Was DJ LeMahieu just hampered by injury (52:50)? ... What's next for Yu Darvish (54:40)? ... What went wrong for Trent Grisham (57:30)? 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:03 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive. Centerfield. What is magnificent? Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality.
Starting point is 00:00:25 Now here's Frank Scott, Chris, and Adam. And that's the end of free agency. For now. Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday, December 2nd. Frank Staple joined, as always, by Scott White. We had a flurry of free agent moves that will hit right here at the top of the podcast. Plus, we're introducing a new meter on today's podcast. No, in season, we do the drop-o-meter, the worryometer.
Starting point is 00:00:49 Every time I say it, I change it up, but we'll be discussing. Worryometer or Worry-O-meter. Worry-Meter, right? We're going to be talking about players who might be done producing at a high level in fantasy baseball. Are they? I don't know. We'll figure that out. Scottie, how are we doing? Are you ready to see Freddie Freeman in pinstripes? No, no, don't even say that, Frank. That's horrible. That is, no. I have, I am scared, Frank. I'm nervous. I don't know why the deal isn't already done. I don't know why it wasn't done in spring training. But I don't like the idea of going into this lockout not knowing. And I hope news breaks while we're recording, because that's probably the last chance. I've never wanted, I've never wanted, I've never wanted.
Starting point is 00:01:35 an impending free agent back so badly in all my life. In all my years of Braves fandom, and I'm sorry to go all Uber fan on you here, I feel like winning the World Series has brought out the Homer in me in a way that it's never been on display in 14 years of working for CBS. But now it's like, I can't have it. I can't stand. I can't stomach the thought.
Starting point is 00:02:05 of Freddie Freeman in another uniform. It needs to happen, Frank. Yeah. We need him back. Well, we are recording this. It's right around 10.30 Eastern time here Wednesday night. So there's still a chance
Starting point is 00:02:17 some things can happen before we hit midnight. And when we hit midnight, it looks like we are going to go into an actual lockout where free agency will be frozen for, I don't know, however long it takes
Starting point is 00:02:28 for the new CBA to be figured out. We are not alone. Joining us on today's podcast, a contributor for NBC Sports Edge, fan tracks, roto ranks, and New Life Fantasy. He's been part of a lot of our mock drafts, but it's the first time here on the podcast.
Starting point is 00:02:43 Welcome in Micah Henry. What is going on, man? What is going on, guys? I appreciate you having me on. I feel like I haven't talked baseball on months at this point, so I'm excited to just ramble on about everything that's going on, you know? Yeah, I mean, look, we've been doing it. It's definitely a weird time because,
Starting point is 00:02:59 obviously, we're in the middle of fantasy football season, but it's just like really unique right now because of everything that's going on with the CBA and the potential lockout like there's a lot of moves happening it's like trade deadline all over again so it's really fun to react to a lot of the things that are happening right now
Starting point is 00:03:16 make sure to follow Micah on Twitter at Fantasy Central 1 and let's jump right into it. We'll hit some of these signings we did not do an emergency podcast for one Javier Baez Scott unfortunately I guess I don't know he wasn't worthy of the emergency podcast
Starting point is 00:03:30 fresh out of emergency Yeah, seriously. I will reveal... Let's talk about the contract and then I'll set it up for years, Scotty. But six years, $140 million to the Detroit Tigers for Javier Baez. He has an opt-out after the second year. Hit 265, 31 homers, 18 steals. This past season, he finished as the six best shortstop in 5x5 Roto,
Starting point is 00:03:52 but only averaged 2.9 fantasy points per game because of his lack of plate discipline. Very clear at this point that the shortened 2020 was the outlawful. for Javier Baez. He's been between an 813 and 881 OPS in each of his past three full seasons. Now, unfortunately, Scott, this might not be the best move for his fantasy value because we know Comerica Park is a bigger park. And according to stat cast, he would have hit just 24 home runs. If he played all of his games last season in Detroit, obviously, you know, that's not realistic, but this doesn't seem like a very good venue change for Javier Baez's value. What do you think? Yeah, 24 versus the 31 he actually hit, which, you know,
Starting point is 00:04:31 You know, it's worth saying. I don't know how scientific that is. It's really just measuring the distance of the batted balls and the dimensions of the park, and there are a lot of other factors that come into play there. So, yeah, I mean, Detroit's a tougher place to hit than Wrigley Field. We saw that when Nick Castellanos went the other direction from Detroit to Chicago. But Javier Baez, you know, he's not known for hitting cheap shots,
Starting point is 00:04:59 is average home run distance, at least the last couple years, considerably more than Nick Castellanos is. I don't know that the venue is really the biggest concern here. Of course, it's not good, but the bigger concern is just that, you know, you use the term outlier to describe Javier-by's 2020 season. Really, really liar. He became even worse with the plate discipline last year, and the only reason it didn't destroy him
Starting point is 00:05:29 is because he became even more of an outlier in the two areas where he was already a huge outlier, home run to fly ball rate and Babbup. Career highs in both. And that was hard for a player like Javier Byaz to do because they're already so consistently high. So at some point, and, you know, he's entering his 30s. Let's see, today's is actually his birthday, December 1st.
Starting point is 00:05:56 Did he just turn 29? Yeah, he just turned 29. So he's not quite 30 yet. But as he enters his 30s, you wonder if he loses some of that natural athleticism that's driving those outlier stats, how quickly could it all fall apart for him? I don't think it's going to happen in 2022, but there's always that chance. So I see him as more of a mid-round type with the potential for him. for early round numbers, but somebody I'm never particularly excited to draft.
Starting point is 00:06:30 Yeah, I think the last point that you brought up there, the athleticism. He is a freak athlete, and that's why he's able to outperform this lack of plate discipline, right? It's like when he puts the ball and play, he hits the ball really hard. He's super fast as well. So he doesn't steal a ton of bases, but 18 this past season, definitely valuable for fantasy baseball purposes. His ADP is basically the same as Corey Seeger right now, according to the NFBC, right around pick 68, so that's a mid-sixth round pick. in a 12-team league.
Starting point is 00:06:58 Mike, I don't know if you've done anything rankings-wise yet or how much you've looked into it, but who would you rather have between those two? We have Javier Baez, now in Detroit. We have Corey Seeger in Texas.
Starting point is 00:07:07 You know, it really comes down to, you know, where my team is at, at that, you know, six, seventh, whatever round they'll be at. I think, you know, if it came down to it, I'd take Sears just because I like the, the band average upside more.
Starting point is 00:07:19 I like the, you know, the home run upside more. I think it's a better hit overall, so I think I trust him. Orier's maybe if I want steals, but I think I take the better hitter, better player in Seeger. Yep, and I'm assuming you would do the same, right, Scott?
Starting point is 00:07:31 Yeah. Yeah, there's no doubt about that. I know you still like your boy, Corey Seeger, quite a bit there. Marcus Stroman signed a three-year $71 million deal with the Chicago Cubs, which includes an opt-out after the second year. And there's like a bunch of weird, like elevator-type incentives here where if he pitches over 160 innings per season, he gets like $2 million more.
Starting point is 00:07:53 So he chases the money, which I have absolutely no problem with, Like whenever players want to get paid, like, sure, I'm all for it. He finished as the SP 28 and 5x5 roto this past season. Just 12 fantasy points per game, which was the SP 54 for Marcus Stroman, which I found surprising. Usually that's his better format, but he did have a lot of five-ending starts this past season. A 302 ERA, a 1-1-5 whip. Still under eight strikeouts per nine.
Starting point is 00:08:16 He did introduce a new splitter, which was a very good pitch for him. Michael, we'll start with you this time. What do you think about this move? Marcus Stroman going over to the Chicago Cubs. You know, I'm expecting the similar numbers, to be honest. You know, I don't, I don't, as you mentioned, the new splitter, the new, you know, pitch that could help him maybe get more strikeouts. I don't, I don't, I didn't look up, I didn't look up the numbers, but, you know, I don't know if that really helped them that much. But I'm expecting similar numbers overall, you know, mid, you know, 3.5, something 3.7, ERA, you know, just not nothing special, but helpful, you know what I mean?
Starting point is 00:08:49 Yeah, I mean, that kind of describes Marcus Stroman as fantasy career. You know, he's mostly been helpful. You look at his career numbers and he's right there in that like mid to highest threes ERA. Scott, what do you think? Marcus Stroman right now, ADP, early ADP is 161.23. Just three spots ahead of Eduardo Rodriguez, who finds himself in a new home as well with the Detroit Tigers. What do you think about this move for Stroman? Who would you rather have him or Erod?
Starting point is 00:09:14 I'd rather have Stroman because you have a better idea what you're getting. I think Eduardo Rodriguez, just by virtue. of having more strikeout upside, has more overall upside, but Stroman's very steady, and you don't like him going to a non-contender in the Cubs, because obviously that hurts his win potential, but he's coming off the season where he went 10 and 13 with the Mets and still managed to be pretty useful in fantasy.
Starting point is 00:09:39 So I don't expect the win-loss record to be much worse than 10 at 13. It could potentially get better even for a worse. team. I do think it's interesting that the Cubs were the team that signed him. I feel like this offseason, I feel like we haven't seen one like this in, I don't know, like 20 years. That may be going back too far, but it just seems like teams are making moves regardless of where they are, where their contention trajectory is, you know?
Starting point is 00:10:14 like, Dodgers and Yankees done basically nothing, right? You got the Rangers making, signing three players to big contracts, two of the biggest middle infielders on the market. And now you have the Cubs in play for one of the biggest free agent pitchers when we thought they were just in the beginning stages of a rebuild, right? They just traded everybody away last July. And now what are they doing? Signing Marcus Stroman.
Starting point is 00:10:39 And on a three-year deal, no less. Yeah. Do they expect to contend next year? That would be surprising. That would definitely be an unconventional return to contention. Yeah, it is pretty random. You're right about that. The Rangers spending a lot of money.
Starting point is 00:10:58 The Cubs don't look like they're ready to compete. I feel comfortable saying anytime soon. But yeah, I guess maybe they just wanted someone to anchor their pitching staff. And the other day, Scott, we spoke about potentially drafting National League Central pitchers, but probably more likely on the Brewers or Cardinals, because you get to face that Cubs lineup. So unfortunately, Marcus Trowman cannot do that. He'll still get the pirates, but yeah, I think, you know,
Starting point is 00:11:22 it doesn't really change much from the win potential. It's still not very good for Marcus Tremant. Chris Taylor headed back to the Los Angeles Dodgers on a four-year, $60 million deal, had another solid season, $254 batting average, 20 homers, 13 steals, 92 runs scored over 148 games. Scott, I don't think this really changes much for Chris Taylor. Maybe it throws some cold water on Gavin Lux,
Starting point is 00:11:44 who we spoke about the other day. Yeah, that's true. Yeah, I mean, obviously, Corey Seeger is out of the picture now, so if there were any concerns about Chris Taylor's playing time, you know, he's got to play every day. I don't know if he'll be the everyday second baseman or if he'll platoon with Lux there,
Starting point is 00:12:00 maybe split time with Pollock and left field. Maybe Max Muncie isn't ready for the start of the season. Bellinger moves back to first base. Taylor plays center field every day for a while. But one way or another, he's going to be in the lineup. obviously the Dodgers prioritized him and he prioritized the Dodgers. I read on Twitter.
Starting point is 00:12:20 I think maybe some people were underwhelmed by the amount of money he got, but he really wanted to go back to the Dodgers. And yeah, I feel like I feel like he'll be a serviceable starter and fantasy, whether it's at second base shortstop, the outfield, wherever he ends up eligible. Yeah, I mean, you mentioned Max Muncie there.
Starting point is 00:12:41 I think that's a possibility. Definitely, Muncie could play some second base as well once the Dodgers sign. Freddie Freeman. Not just playing with you. Just going to keep taking those jabbs, Scotty. No. No. Stop it. Stop it.
Starting point is 00:12:54 We had a bunch of reliever moves. Reisselae-Glaeus, big contract, four years, $58 million contract, returning to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. He just finished as the RP2 behind only Liam Hendricks. I want to talk more about Mark Melanson, signed a two-year deal, $14 million contract with the Arizona Diamond Bank. He just led baseball with 39 saves. Another one, right? What are the Diamondbacks doing signing Mark Malanson?
Starting point is 00:13:18 I guess they wanted some assurance in the back end of their bullpen. But he did falter a little bit. Mark Malanson did in September. He had an ERA over four in that month. Obviously, it's such a small sample size for a reliever. I'm a little bit skeptical that he can keep overperforming his peripheral stats. I mean, he's getting older, obviously here. But the unquestioned closer for the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Starting point is 00:13:39 Michael, what do you think about this move, Mark Malanson, to Arizona? I expect less save opportunities on a team that won't win as many games or have the likelihood of winning as many games as of right now. But I do think he'll be a reliable source to save just because he can do it. You can get it done. Even if he does have like a 3.5 for Eerie, I think he'll be the closer of the entire season. As long he doesn't get hurt or whatever. Yeah, I mean, unquestionably, he's going to be the guy there. How about this, Scott?
Starting point is 00:14:09 Corey Canable to the Philadelphia Phillies on a one-year. $10 million contract, pitched really well for the Dodgers this past season, but it was only 25 and two-thirds inning. So again, smaller sample size for him, a 252 ERA, 0.97 whip, 10.5K per 9. And the fastball velocity was back up closer to where he was at when he was in his prime, when he was saving all those games for the Milwaukee Brewers. Ian Kennedy is a free agent, so I'm guessing as of now, Corey Canable is the leader for the Philadelphia Phillies.
Starting point is 00:14:39 So a lot can change. Yeah, and I think there may be some semi-clarity, as much clarity as we ever get about the closer role these days. Dave Dombrowski, who's, of course, running the Phillies now, after this signing, he was quoted as saying, we're not necessarily going after a closer at this time, which maybe means they found their closer. As you mentioned, Kennedy's gone. Canable was a high-end closer. I think it was 2017. He had 39 saves for the Brewers with low ERA, elite K-per-9, health problems since then, obviously.
Starting point is 00:15:20 But he looked great when he was healthy last year for the Dodgers. He looked like it was basically back to that 2017 form. And, you know, he could be a pretty exciting closer. So hopefully that's what ends up happening. But as I intimate, my camera is shifting angles on me. What's going on there, Scott? I got a lot of headspace all of this one of the show off the top of the Christmas tree behind me. What was I saying?
Starting point is 00:15:46 Oh, yeah. I don't think we're going to know for sure who the Phillies closer is, you know, unless they trade for Kirk Kimbril or something. Yeah. Even heading into opening day, I don't think we'll know. I think that's just the way most teams play it these days. Yeah. And I think that's the next name I wanted to mention was Craig Kimball,
Starting point is 00:16:04 because we missed this one last week, but Kendall Graven signs with the White Sox on a three-year $24 million contract, which I think only solidifies that Craig Kimberl will be traded at some point this offseason. I think the Phillies make a lot of sense. I think the San Diego Padres, now that they do not have a closer, could make some sense, a reunion there with Craig Kimbral. Speaking of the Padres, they did sign a reliever Robert Suarez to a one-year deal with a player option for 2023. Admittedly did not know much about this guy before he signed, but a hard-throwing right-handed reliever who just posted a 1.16 ERA with 42 saves over. in the Japanese league with the Hanching Tigers,
Starting point is 00:16:44 just under a strikeout per inning two. So I don't know how much strikeout upside is there. But he's someone who has handled that role before. We'll see what other moves the Padres making the offseason. A few other smaller ones here. Rich Hill signed a one-year deal with the Boston Red Sox 3.86 ERA 1-2-1 whip this past season.
Starting point is 00:17:00 Mike, do you think anything left here for Rich Hill when it comes to fantasy? Maybe. You know, he had some glimpses last year, you know. But I think there's going to be more inconsistency. than anything going forward, you know, just just because of injuries, performance, you know, everything. But I will, I will take him if I, if, you know, if I have my rotation all set, and I maybe want some upside the back end of my rotation, back into my bench,
Starting point is 00:17:22 I'll, you know, maybe take a flyer to them see what happens. Yeah. Look, here's what I wonder about with the Rich Hill signing is they signed Michael Waka, the Red Sox did earlier this offseason, which, you know, Michael Waka, whatever, take him or leave him. But I presume they signed him to be in the rotation. I was counting on Tanner Halk being in the rotation as good as he looked down the stretch last year. Seems like he has a lot of strikeout potential.
Starting point is 00:17:48 But there's not room for all three of those guys. Yeah, I mean, they're talking about Garrett Whitlock being in the rotation too. Oh, yeah. I'm not even factoring him in. Yeah. So I'm just heartened that Rich Hill is now joining the Red Sox because I'm not sure he's one of the most deserving five candidates. for that team at this point.
Starting point is 00:18:11 He had like an eight-game stretch from the end of April to the beginning of June where he had a 0.99 ERA, I believe it was. And so his season-long numbers look pretty good because of that. But I think from that point forward, early June on, he had like a 436 ERA, something like that, high whip too. I don't think there's much left for Richel. And I'd rather see those innings go to Tanner Hauk. Oh, yeah, there's no doubt about that.
Starting point is 00:18:36 I think Tanner Hauk, before these signings, was going to be a pretty popular, you know, late round sleeper with pretty massive upside for 2022. We'll see what happens. I don't know if you also saw this, Scott, but James Paxton signed with the Red Sox, a one year, $10 million deal. They have a two-year club option.
Starting point is 00:18:52 So I guess if he looks good when he returns and likely the second half of the season, he had Tommy John surgery in the end of April last year, then they can opt into those next two seasons, 2023 and 2024. But obviously that's for later on in this upcoming season. The timing of the surgery was end of April last year, so you think 18 months,
Starting point is 00:19:14 I think it's possible 50-50 shot, I would say, that Paxton doesn't even pitch this year. So they're paying him $10 million for the right of first refusal in 2023 and 2024, basically, which is interesting. I mean, clearly they think there's more to be had here in James Paxton, being his mid-30s. But, you know, he was still a big strikeout guy for the Yankees. when he was last healthy.
Starting point is 00:19:39 Alex Cobb to the Giants is official. We spoke about that on our previous podcast. The numbers there are two years, $20 million deal. The Cubs signed Jan Goams to a two-year, $13 million deal. Micah, do you think this means that they will try and trade away Wilson Contreras? You know, it's possible. Gooms is not, he's not the guy that you want as your catcher one in the, you know, typical one-catcher league, maybe two-catchel league, has your second catcher.
Starting point is 00:20:03 But, I mean, it's possible since it's two-year deal, they keep him there and they, you know, deal away of Contreras for whatever they can get. I don't know. We'll see what happens. Yeah. Universal DH. I mean, I guess that could open up some playing time if they wanted to play Wilson-Gerris there and maybe try them out at first base, something like that. But come on, Frankswindell,
Starting point is 00:20:22 there's no way we're getting rid of Franksewan, obviously. The Padres acquired Jorge Alfaro from the Mets. They now have Osce Nola, Alfaro, and Prospect Luis Campusano, who is waiting in the wings. Alfaro did play some outfield for the Marlins down the stretch. So, you know, maybe using him in some kind of duel, role capacity. I don't know what's going to happen. The Marlins acquired Joey Wendell from the Tampa
Starting point is 00:20:42 Bay Rays for Outfield prospect. Cameron Meisner, whom I spoke with Paul Spora about last week when we had him on the podcast. He was down at AFL. Spora was and he said that Cameron Meisner was someone who stood out to him. So no surprise, the Tampa Bay Rays go out and acquire him for Joey Wendell. We had the non-tendered Tuesday night. The biggest names worth mentioning here, Matthew Boyd, non-tendered by the Detroit Tigers. Chad Cool, non-tendered with the pirates. Not the biggest name. Robert Cazelman, non-tendered by the Mets. The Yankees did tender a contract to one, Gary Sanchez.
Starting point is 00:21:15 So looking like he will be the starting catcher for my New York Yankees, which kind of done. Kind of done with Gary Sanchez, Scott. I wish we were trying something else out, but it doesn't look like that can happen. Matthew Boyd, anything, like, he's probably the biggest name that was non-tendered. Anything left there, Scott? I tried to make him a thing this past year. You shot me down.
Starting point is 00:21:35 Yeah, repeatedly. I shut you down. No, I haven't. I think Matthew Boyd's star has burned out already. It was very short-lived, basically, that was it 2019 or was it 2018? It was that one season where he struck out everybody, and it was just a total aberration. I believe it was too home run prone. 2019.
Starting point is 00:22:00 Yeah. And obviously, he had some, he had some, he had some, pretty big arm issues last year that he didn't end up succumbing to surgery, but I think that's still something you have to have to worry about wherever he ends up signing. I am seeing this tweet from John Heyman breaking Freddie, no, not Freddie Freeman. MLB owners vote unanimously to institute a lockout. It is expected to begin
Starting point is 00:22:28 tomorrow. Again, we're recording this Wednesday night, but unclear what time. So just confirming what we expected all along, but there you go, some confirmation at least from John Heyman on the matter. A few more smaller signings. Yes, we will get through these and then we'll talk about a bunch of players, whether they are done or not. Dylan Bundy signed a one-year deal with the Minnesota Twins. Mike, I saw that you were tweeting about Dylan Bundy.
Starting point is 00:22:47 Any hope here that he can potentially get back on track? Yeah, I dug into him, I think a week ago, just out of random, just to see, you know, what happened. It was really that slider where he was throwing it. I mean, the 2020, it was like really, you know, down in the way to right-handed hitters. And, you know, this season, 2021, he was really throwing it in the zone way too much. I think he had that career high zone rate.
Starting point is 00:23:09 And that's just not going to get it done with us, you know, with the rest of this. It's not the best pitch, it's the end of itself. It's not the best slider. So you can't really just keep that thing in the zone. So, I mean, if he starts to throw it out of the zone more, I think, who'll get closer to way it in 2020. But I don't think whoever get back to that point of striking out, you know, 12 guys is going like 70 and seven in and all that crazy A stuff that he did.
Starting point is 00:23:26 I think that was kind of, that was kind of flukey. But he can be valuable for sure. Yeah. And it looks like, at least as a. now looking at their rotation. They're going to need him. So, wow, I'm looking at their roster resource page. They have him penciled in
Starting point is 00:23:40 as their SP1. As of that, like, it's Dylan Bundy, Bailey Ober. Obviously, Joe Ryan is there, so there's some hype there. Randy Dobnack, Lewis Thorpe. So, yikes. We'll see what happens with the Minnesota Twins. That's not good. Clint Frazier signed a one-year deal with the Chicago Cubs. They also signed Harold Ramirez
Starting point is 00:23:56 last week. They have Ian Hap on the team. They have Raphael Ortega. They have Jason Hayward still on the roster. So, there's going to be some kind of crunch here when it comes to playing time. National League could have the D.H. I guess that's something that helps. But what do you think, Scott?
Starting point is 00:24:10 Any hope for once breakout hopeful? Clint Frazier? Not really, if I'm being honest. I think this is the sort of move that a rebuilding club should make. Take one last shot on a guy once perceived to have high upside that now is essentially free.
Starting point is 00:24:32 because he's worn out as welcome at his previous stops. You know, so often these rebuilding teams will just fill in their open spots with obvious journeymen, you know, barely hanging on to a major league job kind of guys. And there's nothing to salvage from that. I mean, if you're committed to losing anyway, you might as well give your bets to somebody who could raise his value and become. an asset for you, which Clint Fraser still potentially could, but the odds are definitely against it at this point. And I'm certainly not looking to target him in fantasy.
Starting point is 00:25:12 Well, let's give credit where it's due. Go ahead. Go ahead. I would say one thing. I mean, I feel like I have to at least get the opportunity to get some playing time with the Cubs. You know what I mean? So I feel like he'll probably have like an ADP in like the 500, 600 range, 400 range, whatever. It could be with those flyers that maybe does something. I don't know, just throwing it out there. You know, you never know. I mean, 20, heading into last year, I thought Clint Frazier had broken through. Yeah, that was just heading into this past year. He was on my breakout list for last season.
Starting point is 00:25:44 You know, obviously, Yankees aside, Homer, but he thought it's so hard, so hard after obviously plenty of misses before then, too. So it's just that, it's just that pandemic shortened season where he looked like he was living up to his potential. that's basically all it's been. Yep. The early ADP, if you're doing draft champions leagues or anything right now,
Starting point is 00:26:08 529. So, I mean, you're getting them super late and only a name to remember there with Clint Frazier. Let's give credit where it's due. The Cubs did find a few of these retreads. Again, Frank Schindel. And Raphael Ortega was really good for them as well. So we'll see.
Starting point is 00:26:21 We'll see what happens with Clint Frazier. Sayza Hernandez signed a one-year deal with the Nationals. Ruegnett-Odor signed a one-year deal with the Orioles. Daniel Hudson signed a one-year deal with the Dodgers. reminder, the Dodgers have not re-signed Kenley Jansen yet, or any, I guess, surefire closer to this point. So Blake Trinen, I think, would be the first man up there if they don't sign anyone else.
Starting point is 00:26:43 Yemi Garcia signed a two-year deal with the Toronto Blue Jays. Hector Neres signed a two-year deal with the Astros. Leori Garcia re-signed a three-year deal with the Chicago White Sox. Let's take a quick break when we return. Are these players done? We'll talk about it next. Fantasy baseball today. All right, so let's jump in.
Starting point is 00:26:59 Are these players done? Let's fire up the dunzometer. One on the dunzometer means this player has a lot left in the tank. They are not done. They're far from that. We are pretty excited to see what they can do and hopefully bounce back in fantasy baseball. 10 on the dunzometer. Stick a fork in him.
Starting point is 00:27:17 He's done. There's nothing left. This person is not helping you in fantasy baseball. Let's start with one of the more popular players to talk about this offseason, Scott. I crowdsourced Twitter. I asked who they wanted to hear during the segment. and unsurprisingly, Cody Bellinger was a name that people wanted to hear a lot. He was historically bad this past season, 165 batting average, 10 homers, three steals in just 95 games.
Starting point is 00:27:42 Coming off the shoulder surgery last off season, he dealt with a calf injury earlier on this season as well. He also had a really bad 2020, obviously short in season. He tweaked his batting stance. Why? Coming off of an MVP season in 2019, would you tweak anything? You're already really, really good, Cody Bellinger. But this past season, he was not. He gave us a little bit of hope in the 12 playoff games that he played, 353 batting average, one homer, five steals, a 35% line drive rate. But that is an extremely small sample size.
Starting point is 00:28:12 Scott, Cody Bellinger on the Dunzometer. Where are you? I'm glad you're giving me a whole range of options to choose from here because these top ones are the most difficult. I'll go four on Cody Bellinger. So a little more to the side of, I don't think he's done. Like, he's still 26. So, you know, right in the prime of his career.
Starting point is 00:28:42 And he was the league MVP in 2019, obviously. Since then, I think he's just become a mechanical mess in between constant tinkering and injuries. He's just totally lost as well. And that's something that can be regained with coaching and reps. You know, that's something I feel like he can get back. And I feel like if that happens, it'll be like a switch turned on. And like 2020 and 2021 never even happened for Cody Bellinger.
Starting point is 00:29:19 So there's definitely a point where I would be excited to take a flyer on him. I mean, a flyer might be too strong because he's going to go in the most. middle round, the early to middle round. I have my number 29 outfielder, basically. So, um, I draft them ahead of guys like Austin Meadows and, uh, Roppy Grossman. Guys, I don't feel like really compare in terms of upside, but I'm not, I'm not drafting Bellinger at his upside anymore either. Yeah. His early ADP is 96. So 12 team league, you're looking at the eight, nine turn. I think that's a pretty fair value for, a, you know, former MVP from just, you know, two years ago.
Starting point is 00:30:02 It might be just a smidge early for me, but not far off. Scott Boris, super agent, of course, for many players in baseball, had this to say about Cody Bellinger earlier in the offseason. Quote, he was injured, to Cody's credit. He tried to play through, and the Dodgers played him because he is a gold glove caliber player at two positions. We'll be back to full strength in spring, quote, learned a great deal about himself last year.
Starting point is 00:30:26 Again, that is Scott Boris on Cody. Bellinger. Michael, what do you think? 1 to 10 on the dunzo meter. Where are you at on Cody Bellinger? Scott Haddam, you said, four, I haven't met three. I think, you know, we had the same, you know, same type of idea around them. And I think you hit on the head, Scott. You said, you know,
Starting point is 00:30:42 a lot of mechanical stuff, you know, a lot of injuries messing with his mechanics, messing with his, you know, confidence. There's a lot of, a lot of factors that go into, you know, a player that's going through everything that he went through over the last, what, 16 and 18 months. So I think, you know, once he gets comfortable, once he gets all
Starting point is 00:30:58 to clear his head, gets mechanics right. I think he could be one of the better values. I've seen him go like, yeah, like seventh, eighth, ninth round. I think that could be one of those, you know, league winning picks that he could get at 30, 30 home runs,
Starting point is 00:31:10 27, 280 bad average and his 10 steals. That's, you know, that's a third fourth round pick. So, yeah, I'm ball in on Belgium in 2022. We can't talk about Cody Bellinger without talking about Christian Yellich, right? It feels like these two are kind of married at the hip at this point. Christian Yellich, 248 batting averages past season,
Starting point is 00:31:26 nine homers, nine steals. In 117 games, he dealt with a lingering back injury, which has now affected him for quite some time. It feels like he dealt with it a couple of years ago where he would go on the aisle here, there. Never to the point that it affected him this past season. The ground ball rate spiked all the way back up to 54% his highest since 2017. His last year that he was with the Miami Marlins. Micah, you get to start us off this time with the Dunzometer on Christian Yelich. Christian Yelich
Starting point is 00:31:58 I put this down I have Yolish at 3.5 I decided to put a decimal there just because I couldn't decide between 3 and 4 but I think a lot of his problems also came because of injuries that you know a back injury is
Starting point is 00:32:14 one of the worst injuries any athlete in any sport could ever have it limits everything you do you know what I mean you can't and in baseball you really need your back to swing and everything so I mean to run to steal basis well he just wasn't 100% I think besides that, he really wasn't really swinging much.
Starting point is 00:32:29 His swing rate was at like 60% in the 2020. It got back up to 6, 7% in 2021. So I think as long as he's swinging the back, as long as he's confident, he'll be able to, and as long as he's fully healthy, he'll be able to, you know, do what he does. I don't know if he ever gets back to 30-30, but I think he could definitely, you know,
Starting point is 00:32:45 maybe get to 20, 20, something like that with a decent band average. So, yeah. Yeah. So with Yelich, the groundball rate spiking, I think that's actually something that could come from the back injury, right? Like you can't loft the ball. Your back is affecting you and helps you generate so much power.
Starting point is 00:33:01 And it just affects everything in the swing and with your core when you're dealing with that kind of injury. The problem is we just don't really know. We don't really know where this injury is going to go. Is it going to get worse? Is it going to, is it just going to play through it? Is it going to stagnate? We saw Clayton Kirshaw was affected by a back injury for multiple seasons, you know, a couple of years ago. So, Scott, what do you think in Christian Yellich on the dunzo meter?
Starting point is 00:33:22 So if Mike is going to do decimals, I'll do decimals too. I'm going to go 5.5 on Yelich. I had Bellinger 4. I'm going 5.5 on Yelich, which means I'm leaning ever so slightly towards him being done. And that's because I'm putting a lot of weight on this back injury. And just, I don't want to write Yelich off because I know the upside is first round ability. Like, I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility.
Starting point is 00:33:53 He could bounce back with another first round caliber season. I think that's definitely within his range of outcomes. So, you know, I have to respect that. And I do like that he got his strikeout rate down. He still impacts the ball very hard, not as hard as he did for the majority of his career, but still hard relative to league average. But it's clear something's wrong with him.
Starting point is 00:34:18 And a back injury is the kind of thing that can completely redirect a player's career. I mean, we have historic examples of this. Don Mattingly, you know, more recently, Todd Helton, their backs started bothering them, and they just stopped hitting for power. And kind of feels like we might be seeing that for Yale. I hate to see it, but I do think it's a legitimate concern. So I only rank him one spot behind Bellinger. I still would take a chance on him in about the same range, maybe like the 9-10 range, around 9-10.
Starting point is 00:34:54 That was where I'd put him. I'm not as hopeful for Yelich as I am for Bellinger. Let's move on to Kyle Hendricks. Everything finally caught up to him. 4.77 ERA, 1.35 whip. He gave up a career high, 31 home runs in 2020. His previous high was 22. Oddly enough, a lack of control for Kyle Hendricks.
Starting point is 00:35:15 Not that he was bad. He was just over two walks per nine, but that's bad for him. I mean, someone who, like, he lives on the fence so much, right? But anything that can push him over the edge, we just saw it, basically, right? So a combination of giving up more home runs and walks. It just completely doomed him this past season. So the early ADP for him all the way down at 263.2. I'll mention a few names in just a little bit who he's going around.
Starting point is 00:35:41 But Scott, what do you think, Kyle Hendrix on the Dunzometer? I will go, I'll go three on Kyle Hendricks. I don't think he's done. I don't think he's done. He's about to turn 32, and he has a skill set that should age very well. You know, he throws DeLorean speeds, 88 miles per hour. This is not somebody who relies on blowing it by hitters.
Starting point is 00:36:11 And I think last year, you know, he's just a little off at times. And he had a stretch in the middle of the season. It was just quality start after quality start. I mean, he looked as reliable as he ever had. It's just, it was bookended by these stretches where he was getting crushed. And I think that's just part of, that's just part of the profile for Kyle Hendricks. He misses his spots a little bit and he can get crushed because he doesn't have that blow you away stuff. But a great control pitcher works deep into games.
Starting point is 00:36:42 Still, you know, in the relatively early stages of his career, I think he's probably going to be okay. I'm not going to trust him to the extent I did last year. Like last year was by far the highest I ranked him, and it was a bad idea. But, you know, if you want him as your number four starter, I think that could go okay for you. You were not alone, Scotty. A lot of people liked Kyle Hendricks coming off the short and season
Starting point is 00:37:09 because we were looking for volume. Who is someone that can give us innings, reliable endings? And it seems like that's who Kyle Hendricks was for so long. You mentioned that stretch that he had in the middle of the season. 13 start stretch from May 16th to July 21st, where he had a quality start in 12 of 13 of those starts. He had a 2.50 ERA during that span. However, a 4.41 X-FIP. So normally he outperforms his underlying numbers, but last year it just seemed, it seemed elevated.
Starting point is 00:37:41 I'm a little bit more worried about Kyle Hendricks. Michael, where are you at, the Dunzo meter for Hendricks? I have him at a little buff, Scott, I have him at four. I looked into it. It had a lot to do with his fastball command. His fastball had a, I think it was a career high, 14.9% walk rate. And I think he wasn't as refined as he used to be in the past. I don't know what the deal was, but he wasn't hitting his spots as precisely as he used to.
Starting point is 00:38:07 So I think, as Scott said, he's still, you know, only 32 years old. I think he can easily, you know, come back and just refine that command, We're fine what he lives off of being in control of his pitches. I think he'll be fine if he does it. Yeah, I also want to mention 1.5 home runs per 9. That is very unlike Kyle Hendricks, who's more of a ground ball pitcher, or not an extreme ground ball pitcher,
Starting point is 00:38:30 but generally keeps the ball on the ground. And I think having that inflated home run rate was mostly about location, but one headline you didn't mention at the top of the show, Frank, is that there are reports that MLB was actually mixing in the older juice balls with the newer deadened balls this season. And they were all mixed up, apparently because of supply issues reportedly. So though there are some reasons to maybe doubt that as the excuse.
Starting point is 00:39:06 But yeah, that variable just. became a huge variable again. And just because we can't really narrow down when one ball was being used and where it was being used and when the other ball was being used. And in theory, we could see more impacts from that heading into next year since we didn't get a pure sample of how the new ball will play in 2021. Yeah, I mean, baseball, what are we doing, man? Like, it is, I can't even say one step forward, two steps back.
Starting point is 00:39:40 It's just constantly two steps back, right? Like, what are we, like, two different baseballs, not telling anybody, right? Like, you have everything going on with the sticky substances this past season as well. They told us before the year that they were going to use a new baseball that was a little bit more dead in. They were trying to decrease home runs overall in the game.
Starting point is 00:39:59 And then it comes out, they were still using the juice ball in some areas. So it's just a mess. One mess after another. Obviously, we love baseball. We love fantasy baseball here, but it's just like, get your act together. other MLB. This is just a mess.
Starting point is 00:40:13 Kyle Hendricks, I don't know. Like, maybe I'm just out on a limb. I kind of think he's done. Like, I think I would put him like seven on this meter here because I just for years he outperformed these peripheral numbers and I don't know. Like, it just seems like everything finally caught up to him. Let's talk about some New York
Starting point is 00:40:28 middle infielders here. Francisco Windor, his first season in the Big Apple with that massive contract. He hit 230 with 20 homers and 10 steals over 125 games. He missed time due to an oblique injury. He also struggled in 2020, we now have about 185 game sample of him being right around a 740 OPS bat. So that is pretty bad.
Starting point is 00:40:50 There's a chance that he was helped out by the bouncy ball when he was hitting all those home runs in 2018 and 2019. Glass half full. He had a pretty big September, 257 batting average, nine homers in 895 OPS. Michael, you can start us off here. Francisco Lindor on the dunzo meter. I have him at two. I expect a decent size bounce back in 2020.
Starting point is 00:41:10 You know, he had career low contact rates in 2021, but the quality contact was fine. I think he had the career best hard hit rate. So I think he's still hitting the ball hard. There's a lot going on here. This is a guy that just, you know, he's coming over to New York. He's, you know, he's a lot of hype around him, a lot of people expect him to be the guy. So, I mean, that's a lot of pressure on player. So I think once he has comfortable, you know, in that lineup, in a better lineup now in 2022,
Starting point is 00:41:34 I think a better team in 2020, I think he'll be, you know, a lot more productive. Yeah. And we've seen that before, you know, first. year with that big contract. There's been many times where players fail to perform in that first year. Michael, we were talking beforehand. You're a Phillies fan. I know Bryce Harper's first year there was not ideal either. So these things happen when we get superstars in new places. Scott, what do you think about Francisco Indoor on the dunzometer? So I am going to say five. I'm going to say five. because it kind of depends what you mean by Dunn.
Starting point is 00:42:10 I mean, he can probably, I think he can probably be better than he was last year. I don't think he's going to be first-round caliber bat again or even second-round caliber bat again. I think he was tailor-made for the juice ball era, and he kind of leaned into it as it was happening because the home run explosion came, the juice ball year I started basically the second half of 2016.
Starting point is 00:42:40 2017 was the year he broke through as a 30 homer guy, and he did it by elevating his launch angle, kind of selling out for home runs. And he's one of those guys, I've referred to them, hit a lot of home runs in spite not having a particularly high average exit velocity. He's stuck with that approach this, year with, you know, at least many of the balls being deadened, not all of them, apparently. But there was a, you know, obviously, they weren't, they weren't, there were deadened baseballs
Starting point is 00:43:17 this past year, right? And he stuck with that same high fly ball approach, and they just weren't carrying over the fence for him. And when you're hitting a lot of fly balls and they're not going over the fence, it wrecks your batting average, which we still happen to him. And I, I think the best thing he could do now is go back to his initial approach prior to 2017, where he was more of a line drive hitter and maybe top out of 20 home runs rather than 30 plus. And if he does that, he'll still be a quality starter in fantasy. But I don't, I'm really not counting on him ever being that high-end shortstop again. The early steamer projections on Francisco Indoor, 252 batting average,
Starting point is 00:44:02 30 homers, 13 steals. I think I would take the over on the batting average. You know, maybe we get 260, something like that. The under on the power. I think, you know, maybe he's just like a 25 homer bat at this point, something like that. Mid-20s. Slight over maybe on the steals as well. 15 steals.
Starting point is 00:44:20 You know, 25 homers, 15 steals, 260 bat. I think a lot of people would sign up for that where he's going right now, which is an early ADP of 51.9. So an early fifth round pick. I wish I was getting a little bit more of a discount coming off the short and season, coming off this past season, but he's going just three picks behind Wander Franco. Scott, who would you rather have? I'd rather have Franco.
Starting point is 00:44:45 Micah, what do you think, Wander Franco versus Francisco Lindor? I'll take Franco, yeah. I agree. Give me the upside, and honestly, might be a better floor too, so, yeah. All right. I would take Jorge Polanco over Lindor. Oh, I still have Lendor in my top 12, and still want them as a starter, but I have I have more confidence in Polanco's power than Lendor's at this point.
Starting point is 00:45:08 All right. Hore Polanco, ADP of 91.6. So you could wind up with a lot of Jorge Polanco this upcoming season. None of Lendor, apparently not. All right. So I have two, four, six, eight more players. We're not going to be able to deep dive each one of these. Here's what we'll do.
Starting point is 00:45:26 I'll let you guys alternate who breaks down. It gives analysis on a player, but you guys can still give out your, your dunzometer picks for each of them. Scott, you will get Glaber Torres up next. I mentioned New York, middle infielder's. I don't know what is going on with this guy, but the past couple of years,
Starting point is 00:45:42 it's like, space jam style, lost all of his talent. It is just someone stole it. I don't know where it is, but Glaber Torres does not have it anymore. There you go. 169 games since the start of 2020, a 255 batting average, 12 homers, 15 steals for Glaber
Starting point is 00:46:00 the homer in the fly ball rate has taken a huge step back. Maybe someone that was also helped by that bouncy ball. Glass half full for him as well. Played 19 games at second base towards the end of the season. And he did perform better than 300 batting average, two homers, four doubles, and 815 OPS. Still not the player that he was, but looked a little bit more comfortable. Really not a major league shortstop.
Starting point is 00:46:24 He's very bad there. Scott, where are you at? Claibor Torres, Dunzomete. eight? Yeah, this one's tough, man. This one is tough. It's, um, what everything I said about Lendor applies twofold to Glaibor Torres because, I mean, his, his exit velocities, his hard hit rates were really blah early in his career. And he was hitting home runs in spite of that.
Starting point is 00:46:50 And so when you see, when you see basically the data remain unchanged year after year, and yet the production goes way down, especially, when 2021 is the season you're keying in on with the change in the ball. I think that might pretty much tell the story. It's too early to say for sure. It's only one year of data, and it wasn't, it was, again, the variable wasn't what we thought it was. It was, I keep getting tongue-tied when I try to explain what I mean,
Starting point is 00:47:22 but they're mixing in balls, right? They're mixing in juice balls and deadened balls. So the data was kind of corrupted in that way. But even so, that might tell the story for Glaper Torres. It's just that profile of hitter isn't going to be able to hit for power anymore. And if they're not able to hit for power anymore, then they really need to change their whole hitting makeup to be a useful player. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:47:52 And we also had that just crazy stretch in 2019. where he just destroyed Baltimore pitching. And, like, their pitching staff was historically bad that year. I think he hit, like, 13 homers and 19 games or whatever it was. So that was a lot of his production there. Micah, just give me a number, maybe a quick thought on Glaver Torres here, Dunzo Meter. I haven't, not as harsh as Scott, but I haven't met seven.
Starting point is 00:48:16 Yeah, I agree with a lot of points, Scott said. And going, speaking on the point where he said he has to, you know, kind of, like, adjust his game a little bit. He hit 312 against breaking pitches in 2021, 21, 2.89 XBA. I mean, so if he's, you know, making adjustment to hit better against breaking pitches, that's going to have been better for average. But, you know, the power isn't there. He had like an 81 average Xxivlots against breaking pitches.
Starting point is 00:48:39 That's not going to get it done. So, yeah, I haven't messed up. I look, I watch a lot of Yankees games. He could not hit fastballs up in the zone. He just could not get to them. So just quickly pulling, yeah, he had 2.30 against fastballs this year. It's just like, it's not going to work. Like, you know, you got to be able to hit fastballs at this level.
Starting point is 00:48:55 And at least this past season, he couldn't do that. He was 259 in 2020. So a little bit better, but not much. Let's move on to Hyun Ryu, 4.37 ERA, a 1.22 whip. Career low, 7.6K per 9 with just a 9.7% swinging strike rate. And maybe someone affected by the sticky substances, because the first two months of the season, a 2.62 ERA with a near 11% swinging strike rate from June 1st on.
Starting point is 00:49:23 Yanjin Ryu, a 5.37 ERA, just under 9% swinging strike rate. He did deal with some injuries, dealt with some off-season stuff, which we, uh, off the field issues, which we found out after the fact. Apparently he wasn't able to see his family for a long stretch of time. Believe it was because of COVID and the fact that the Blue Jays were not playing in their actual park and you know, they were moving around. So he didn't get to see his family and it's something that actually affected him in something that he talked about. So I don't know how we factored that into our analysis. But, uh, Micah, you know, get Junjun Riu here. Where's he at on the
Starting point is 00:49:55 Dunzometer? I have Ryu at 4. And like you said Frank, there's some factors outside the game that could be affecting his overall presence on the mouse. I mean, his command that, you know, he's a guy that
Starting point is 00:50:10 you know, thrives off hitting his spot and his command just didn't seem right towards the end of the season, just didn't seem right. His control was, he was throwing the ball in the strike zone, but he just didn't, wasn't, you know, locating his pitches where, you know, where they're not as hitable, as they should have been. So he was getting hit it around.
Starting point is 00:50:25 So I think going forward, I'm not, I think he can turn that around thinking, you know, get his head right and just make the adjustments he needs to make. I think, yeah, I'm not too worried about it. All right. A four for Micah, Scott. Give us a number, maybe a quick thought here on Junjun Riu. I'm going to have to give a quick thought because I'm going nine on Yonjian Riu.
Starting point is 00:50:43 Yeah, this is the one I'm most worried about of all of them. How are you going to give him a nine and give Kyle Hendricks a four, Scott? Come on, man. Well, you. you saw basically all of Junjun Reu's skill indicators
Starting point is 00:50:57 just drop off the map and he's going to be 35 next year you know and it just looks like a guy who got old
Starting point is 00:51:06 maybe the sticky substance band had something to do with it he's enough of a control pitcher that I'm not going 10 I'm not going 10
Starting point is 00:51:18 and plus you know he's made some he's had some other moments in his career where he made a big bounce back from injuries in particular, I'm thinking. So I'm not going to ride him off completely. But in a dynasty context, if I have Yunjin Ryu, I'll shop them for whatever I can get, basically. I'll treat him like I was treating Patrick Corbyn last season in a dynasty league because, you know, somebody out there like Micah might have more faith in him than I do.
Starting point is 00:51:49 All right. Let's get back to my Yankees, right? Of course, we got to talk about the Yankees. DJ LaMayhew, 268 batting average, 10 homers, a 7-11 OPS, maybe another victim of the no bouncy ball this past season. He had a sports hernia down the stretch. It turns out he will have off-season core surgery. We don't know how long he was playing with that injury. Maybe it was something that affected him for a majority of the season. But Scotty, you get DJ LaMayhew here, the dunzometer for DJ. So he might be the poster child for the effect of the deadened baseball. Because when the ball was at, it's juiciest, is basically the only years when he hit for power.
Starting point is 00:52:34 And then 2021 happens with the deadened baseball, and that power goes away. So I think he's probably what he was last year. That's just who Deid LeMayhew is going to be going. going forward, I'll give him a nine like I did Ryu. Oh, gosh. Man, I'm pretty sure the Yankees have him for like four more years. So that is not the best there. Michael, what do you think, DJ LaMahue?
Starting point is 00:53:06 Give me a number here. I have my five. I mean, we already know the profile of sketchy limited, you know, bearability, lots of ground balls, but it's the contact hitters. You know, he's elite contact hitter and he hits the ball hard a lot. So I think he could sneak to 1560 home run and sneak a good 280 bad average, sneak five or six slow bases and have a quietly productive season if everything goes right. All right.
Starting point is 00:53:28 I like the sound of that. Hopefully we can make that happen because, oh, gosh, I hope he's not completely done. But there's definitely a chance. Maybe that injury affected him more than they were leading on. U. Darvish had a 4.22 ERA, a 109 whip after an exquisite shortened 2020 season. a really, really strong second half of 2019 as well. Definitely seems sticky stuff related. 5.60 ERA from June 1st on.
Starting point is 00:53:57 He also allowed a lot more fly balls this year. 45% fly ball rate by far a career high, which led to 28 home runs allowed. Micah, you get U. Darvish. Where's he at on the dunzo meter? I have U. Darvish at 6. And I just think it's sicky stuff. I think that really did affect him.
Starting point is 00:54:15 That kept me understated. think that, you know, these pictures get used to having this stuff on their fingers, used to using it to do whatever they have to do to succeed and to just have that gone. It's really did affect them. So, yeah, I think I don't know if it's going to, if it's going to be the same picture going forward, but we'll see. But I don't think in drafts, I don't think I'm willing to take the risk in most cases. Yeah, the, the ADP for Darvish is interesting too because it's 88.
Starting point is 00:54:41 So it's not like it completely plummeted, but it is, you know, it's pretty low compared to where it was last year when he was like a second round pick. So now we're getting him in this eighth round range right now for U. Darvish in a 12 team league. If you're buying that he can get back to that Cy Young caliber pitcher, then you know, you're getting him at a potential steal. But Scott,
Starting point is 00:55:01 what do you think? Give me a number. You Darvish. So it's a shame we're going lightning round now because I think this is where we have all the disagreements. What's the lowest I've handed out so far? Maybe a three? Three or four? Well,
Starting point is 00:55:17 Okay, I'll go three for Darvish. I'll go three for Darvish. The timing with the sticky substances, you know, that that's definitely suspicious, but I think it might be a red herring. You mentioned it, Frank. His fly ball rate was much higher than usual. And that was true from the beginning of the season. I remember looking at it at some point in May or June and thinking,
Starting point is 00:55:39 huh, you Darvish is really outperforming his ex-fit here. Are those fly balls going to catch up to him? And they did in the second half. And I don't know if the sticky substance band contributed to that. It helped exacerbate the effect. But he was playing with fire all along. And he's had these really infuriating stretches in his career right. Part of it's because he has like six pitches that he's constantly reshaping his arsenal
Starting point is 00:56:10 based on how those pitches are performing for him. And I think he may have just been a victim of his. own tinkering this past year. The stuff is still electric. I think there's a, I think more likely than not he has some high end years left in him. The last one we'll actually talk about here is Trent Grisham. I'll give you three names at the end. You can just give a quick thought on each.
Starting point is 00:56:35 But Trent Grisham, 242 batting average, 15 homers, 13 steals, a 740 OPS in 13 games. The home runs a flyball rate went from 20% in. in 2020, down to 12% in 2021. The weirdest part, what I was worried about coming into this past season was, would he play against lefties? How good would he be against lefties? He was much better against lefties this year than he was against righties. So that wasn't even the issue for Trent Grisham.
Starting point is 00:57:03 So Scotty, you get this one, the dunzometer, Trent Grisham. Well, I hate to sound like a broken record. I'm going to go seven on Grisham. and my skepticism with him is the same for so many of the other hitters we talked about. He just doesn't hit the ball all that hard, and he managed to hit
Starting point is 00:57:25 a lot of home runs back when we were still working with the juicy baseballs, but I don't think that's a possibility in this new world we're living. That's the hitter profile clearly that I'm most worried about. And when we saw it, we saw it
Starting point is 00:57:42 affect a lot of players already, and I think it could potentially, get even worse, it could potentially affect even more players. If I'm paying a lot more attention to exit velocity now for hitters than I have in previous years, because it seems to have a stronger correlation with outcomes now in this new hitting environment we're looking at. So I like that Grisham gets on base. Obviously, he can contribute some stolen bases. That's why I'm going seven on him versus eight for Glaber Torres versus nine,
Starting point is 00:58:17 for a DJ LaMayhew, but I don't think we're going to see the 2020 version of Grisham again. Scott, you're going to have a pool of about 10 hitters that you could draft in 2022. I think one of them is Horny Polanco. I know you like Kyle Schwerber a lot, and then we'll figure out the other eight, but it seems like there's a lot of hitters that you're actually pretty worried about. And I get it. I get it. Yeah, well, that's part of the reason why I'm doing an about face here with the pitchers versus hitters,
Starting point is 00:58:46 who I invest most of my assets in. I'm back on to the hitters because it just feels like the hitting crop, the useful hitting crop is narrower than it's been in recent years. All right, Micah, you have a number for Trent Grisham on the Dunzometer? Yeah, I've met five. All right. Anything else that you'd like to add on him, a quick thought?
Starting point is 00:59:12 I did when I say quick, I have a lot to say, but I'll try to summarize it. So, yeah, I didn't want to, you know, go on a rap page. But so, so 2021, he really was he hit 218 against fastball. I think that's going to improve, you know, he's a young guy. I think that's important. And his zone contact was a career high 87.7% in 2021. I think for a young guy that's hitting in the zone that much and a guy that can hit for, can improve his quality of contact, I think it's potential for him to improve his metrics overall.
Starting point is 00:59:41 I think he could set a career high max exit, exit lots of the 2020 or 2020. So I think there's still room for improvement, given that he's so young, given that he does have, you know, these raw tools that he can use. So it's five. Just,
Starting point is 00:59:53 you know, just in the middle. All right. A little bit more optimism there for Trent Grisham. Scott, I'm going to give you three players and you have no more than 30 seconds to give out your numbers and say anything you want.
Starting point is 01:00:04 So good luck. Chris Paddock, Charlie Blackman, and Zach Granky. They all might be cooked. Yeah. I will go. Most of my 30 seconds is just going to be me thinking.
Starting point is 01:00:20 I'm going to go. Nine on Chris Paddock. I might be a little high. I'm going to go eight on Charlie Blackman. I don't think he's going to be prime Charlie Blackman, early round Charlie Blackman again. But I think he's still pretty useful just as he is. So I don't know.
Starting point is 01:00:41 Eight, I'll say. And Zach Grinky, seven. Zach Grinky, a free agent as well. So we'll see where he winds up. Chris Paddock, probably my biggest L of 2021. I did have quite a bit of him. Finishes with an ERA over five. Debt with COVID and elbow injury. It was
Starting point is 01:00:56 just a complete mess. He only has the two pitches. You know what? I'm going to drop Granky to six. Okay. I mean, I'm actually with you on Chris Patton. Maybe it's an aide or whatever. He's still youngish. Maybe you can figure it out. Michael, what do you think those three names? Chris Paddock, Blackman, Zach Grinky. So, Paddock,
Starting point is 01:01:12 I have at five. I still think he's still developing. I like him a lot. Granky, I have him at 6.5. You know, he's declining. He's in the decline. And Blackman, no stolen bases, not a lot of power, but we'll hit for average, so I'll give him a seven. Yeah, Blackman, 35 years old lineup is looking pretty awful there with the Colorado Rockies. All right, that's going to do it. We're going to wrap up here.
Starting point is 01:01:35 Once again, I want to thank Micah for coming on. A contributor for NBC Sports Edge, fan tracks, Roto Ranks, New Life Fantasy. That is quite the resume, man. You got a lot of stuff going on right now. Make sure you follow them on Twitter at Fantasy Central 1. We appreciate it coming on here, Micah. Appreciate it for having me on, man. This was fun.
Starting point is 01:01:52 All right, for Scott and Micah, I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again on Tuesday. Bye-bye. Bye-bye.

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