Fantasy Baseball Today - Freeman to the Dodgers, Bryant to the Rockies & Rankings Debates! (3/17 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 17, 2022

Join our FBT March Madness Bracket for a chance to join our listener leagues- http://cbssports.com/FBTbrackets Another one! Freddie Freeman is headed to the Dodgers (1:00). Does it change his value mu...ch? ... Kris Bryant is headed to the Rockies (6:30)! How high does he move up the rankings? ... Zack Greinke signed a one-year deal with the Royals (15:15). ... News and notes (18:00): Bobby Witt is competing for the Royals third base job and Joc Pederson signed with the Giants. ... Scott has a Freeman rant (23:30)! ... Adley Rutschman is hurt (29:46). .. Let's move on to rankings debates, starting with Aaron Nola (34:55). ... Is Logan Webb worth his cost (39:00)? ... What's the concern over Trevor Rogers (44:26)? ... How many innings can we expect from Shane Baz (48:30)? ... Why is Scott lower on Lourdes Gurriel, Joey Gallo and Avisail Garcia (52:20)? 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:03 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. What's up and welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday, March 17th. Happy St. Patrick's Day and Happy March Madness Day for those who celebrate. There's just something about this podcast that causes massive deals to go down as soon.
Starting point is 00:00:40 as we start, or just before we start. But anyway, Freddie Freeman just signed with the Dodgers. Earlier in the day, Chris Bryant signed with the Colorado Rockies. We've got rankings debates and much more. But gentlemen, let's just jump right in and start with Frederick Freeman. Signing with the Dodgers on a six-year, $162 million deal, will join the fourth highest scoring offense last season in the Los Angeles Dodgers. Scott, obviously, the resume speaks for itself.
Starting point is 00:01:10 one of the best hitters over the last decade and Freddie Freeman. The ADP as of now is 16.2. I know you haven't ranked a little bit higher than that. Are you thinking about potentially moving him a couple more spots with his move to the Dodgers now? You know, it's kind of a mess there at the round one-two turn for me.
Starting point is 00:01:33 I'm not exactly sure yet what I want to do. Obviously, the format makes a difference. You got to factor in the Steel's potential of a Kyle Tucker of a Moogie Betz, but I also factor in the position scarcity angle with Devers, Raphael Devers. I don't know. I mean, the fact,
Starting point is 00:01:51 Freeman is just so reliable, right? Absolutely. Pencil him in for 330, 90, every year, potentially even more than 30, 90, 90. And he's going to be in this loaded lineup now. I mean, yeah. I guess I'm still going to, I guess I'm still going to prioritize Freeman first of that group.
Starting point is 00:02:16 I don't know. The Devers thing, I really like the idea of taking Devers early when I've tried it. So maybe behind Devers. I guess that means I'm pushing Devers into round one, right? If I'm saying I want Freeman over Tucker and bets, do I want them over bets? Wow, you can tell I've really thought this through, right?
Starting point is 00:02:36 Hey, I mean, this is breaking news, right? We're talking it out on the fly. This news literally just came through, right? I mean, look, we knew he was likely going to sign with one of the best teams in baseball, but let's get Chris's thoughts. Chris is back in here. Again, Freddie Freeman signs with the Los Angeles Dodgers
Starting point is 00:02:51 on a six-year deal. And Chris, you already had Freddie Freeman ranked as your 11th overall player. The only hitters ahead of him, Shoh Hey Otani, Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Mukie Betts, and then obviously the other big names that are going in the first half of the first round.
Starting point is 00:03:06 I assume your ranking all along was based on him going to one of these big teams, like the Dodgers or Yankees? I mean, it's Freddie Freeman. Right. I don't care that much where he goes. This is better, obviously. It's a better lineup. It'll turn over more often.
Starting point is 00:03:23 He'll have marginally more run and run scoring and run driving in opportunities, although it's not like it's going to be like a 20% difference. Braves are still a good lineup. But it's mostly just that like Freddie Freeman is a, effectively a perfect hitter. Like, there's nothing that he doesn't do at basically an elite level. I guess his chase rate is 64% is 64th percentile. That's the only thing he does at a slightly less than well above average rate.
Starting point is 00:03:59 He crushes the ball. He hits a ton of line drives. He was 100th percentile in average or an expected batting average last season, 320. He was actually better than his numbers. last season, I guess a bit of an underwhelming season for him and that he only had an 896 OPS and 83 RBI,
Starting point is 00:04:16 but the underlying numbers last season were just as strong as they've ever been. So it doesn't move the needle all that much. Just like Matt Olson going to the Braves, it's a better line and better park, doesn't move the needle all that much for me. When you're talking about this caliber of player, there's only so high you can go.
Starting point is 00:04:34 Like, yes, the chances of Freddie Freeman having 120 run, 125 RBI, 38 homer season are probably higher now. Dodger Stadium, better park for left-handed power, his expected home runs in Dodger Stadium last season, 44 versus 36 at Truist Park. So, yeah, I think there's marginally more upside with Freddie Freeman. It's also nice that he's almost never a zero in stolen bases.
Starting point is 00:05:02 So, yeah, like, I don't know, if he had signed with the raise, maybe I would have moved him down. People don't like hitting there. So maybe there was some more risk of that. But same league coming off a season where the underlying numbers were still elite. The overall production is still extremely good. It doesn't move the needle for me one way or the other.
Starting point is 00:05:26 All right. And just take a walk with me down Narrative Street for a second here because he's going home to, I mean, he's a California boy. And I just, I wonder, if we're going to learn about details, about contract talks. I could just see Freddie Freeman, like a fire being lit under him, and he just goes out and has just a massive, massive season. Like potentially the best of his career, like 300 plus batting average, 40 homers, all these runs,
Starting point is 00:05:53 RBI, you know, five to seven steals, which he normally chips in. It just would not surprise me in, maybe. In Dodger Stadium with that lineup around him. He's always been capable of that. Sure. You know, like that's the thing is that we saw, a version of that in 2020 when he won the National League MVP obviously it was a smaller sample size, but like Freddie Freeman, he made a mid-career leap around 27 years
Starting point is 00:06:16 old and he's basically been one of the five or ten best hitters in baseball every season since. All right, he is a bona fide first round pick in head-to-head points leagues and he's right there on the turn for those who play in Roto and category leagues. Let's talk about Chris Bryant, who earlier in the day signed a
Starting point is 00:06:31 pretty massive deal himself with the Colorado Rockies. He's got seven years $182 million. Good for you, Chris Bryant. I am truly ecstatic whenever players get paid, and man, he got this bag. Chris Bryant got more than Freddie Freeman. Oh, my, it's... What happens?
Starting point is 00:06:50 I don't understand me, man. I don't understand what's going on right now, but, yeah, the financials on the Freeman thing is weird. Yeah, like, they trade off Aeronado. You think that, you know, they're doing the Rocky thing where, like, they're not competing, and then they go out and sign Chris Bryant. It's interesting. But if the Rockies had signed Freddie Freeman, if that had been a scenario, he probably gets more than Chris Bryan did, right?
Starting point is 00:07:12 Yeah, this is definitely a... They obviously overpaid to get... Well, and it's not just they overpaid, it's a we're a Mickey Mouse organization tax. Like, the Rockies are arguably the worst run organization in baseball. So, like, it's not surprising that they had to overpay to get Chris Bryant. Yeah, but why would they do that? is the question. When they,
Starting point is 00:07:36 when they just traded away Nolan Aeronado because supposedly they didn't want to have that contract. I just said the whole thing about the Mickey Mouse organization. I mean,
Starting point is 00:07:45 no, but it really, like, from what we understand about the way the Rocky's organization runs, they are not at the bleeding edge of baseball thought, I think is the nice way to put it.
Starting point is 00:07:59 I mean, there was, they recently fired their, like, just, The guy they just hired to head up their analytics department, they fired him like five months later with no, like no real story about it,
Starting point is 00:08:13 but some whispers of like, yeah, they just weren't going to listen. And so it just, it kind of seems like the Rockies just have no plan. And it's just whatever Dick Monfort feels like doing at a given time. And that's why. For me,
Starting point is 00:08:29 as someone who wants to see Chris Bryant hit 310, and put together like a massive stretch of seasons. Yeah. I love it. And I think that's entirely within a realm of possibility. Chris Brian is playing at Core's field. Like, we came up,
Starting point is 00:08:46 we tried to come up with interesting things fantasy-wise to say about Ferdy Freeman going to the Dodgers. The truth is most transaction don't have major fantasy implications, even if they're major transactions. But Chris Bryant to the Rockies does. Like that, in terms of altering a player's fantasy value, that was the biggest move of,
Starting point is 00:09:04 the day because at right precisely at the point in his career where at least I feel like his productivity was most questionable because his average, the way he impacts
Starting point is 00:09:20 the ball, average exit velocity isn't just middling, it's subpar and it's been subpar over and over again and he managed to... One could say it's Nolan Aronadoesque. Well, even worse, even worse than Nolan Aronado. But you know, he managed to succeed in spite of it last year.
Starting point is 00:09:37 We don't know how consistently the new ball was being implemented, and it seemed like he might be on a razor's edge. I was planning to call Chris Bryant a bus. He's in my bus 2.0 currently. But now that he's going to the Rockies, I mean, Chris alluded to Nolan Aeronado and the similarities between their hitting profiles, you saw the way, the change in Aeronado's numbers
Starting point is 00:10:01 going from Colorado to St. Louis. could see the opposite change for Chris Bryant going from San Francisco or Chicago or, you know, wherever you consider he came from, to Colorado. Anybody who makes contact at a reasonable rate in Colorado has the capacity to hit 300. It just, you get so much help on balls and play there. And, you know, it wouldn't take much for him to hit 30 homers either. So I know we've all moved him ahead of Nolan Aronado in our rankings based on this news. He's a borderline top 50 player for me now is Chris Brian.
Starting point is 00:10:37 It's completely transformative. Wow. I think you can make an argument for him ahead of Austin Riley. I don't know if I'm ready to do that yet, but I think he has more upside than Riley. And I'm not sure he's any riskier. Like, this is, there are not a lot of examples of the Rockies acquiring a hitter who is relatively in their prime, who is like a high-level performer. The most recent one I could find was Michael Cadire.
Starting point is 00:11:02 And this was back in 2013, I believe. And Michael Cadire was three years older than Chris Bryan. He was entering his age 33 season. His three prior seasons to getting to Corse Field. He hit 276, 341, 465 with a 24 home run per 162 game pace. In his three years with the Rockies, Cadire hit 307, 362, 525, with a 27 home runs per 162 game pace. The home runs actually didn't go up that much.
Starting point is 00:11:29 Course Field is a really big park for, you know, as much as it. increases offensive production, but in the Humidor era, it's not this outlandish home run park that, you know, it's not the place where Ellis Burks used to hit 44 home runs. But it's a really, really, it's still the best offensive environment in baseball, and there's not really a close second place. And I could see a scenario where Chris Bryant hits 310 with 35 homers and a bunch of runs an RBI and chips in some stolen bases too. I think it's it's just such a good outcome for him that I think he's right there with Austin Riley. Yeah. I think you know, Scott, you hit it on the head. You mentioned that we you moved him ahead of Nolan Aronado. We all did. He's inside the top
Starting point is 00:12:20 60 for each of us. Scott, you have him at 52nd overall. I have him at 56th. And look, Aronado when he was with the Rockies, he was a career 293 hitter in the 8th. seasons he spent there. Then last year he hit 255. It's not crazy to think that Brian can add, you know, at least 20 points of batting average, but maybe even more than that. So I saw this projection spit out on Twitter from Todd Zola, who's, you know, one of the best fantasy baseball minds in the industry. 283, 29 homers, eight steals. And he says that's like Paul Goldschmidt territory. And Paul Goldschmidt's like a top 50 player being drafted. So I think that that is a conservative to me. Yeah. And maybe a projection should be conservative.
Starting point is 00:13:01 But it, yeah, that seems conservative to me. All right. Yeah. So Chris Bryant way up there. I know you guys just did a salary cap auction draft. And you told me beforehand, but Chris Bryant went for $18. 18 in a points league. And that was $1 more than Aeronado, right?
Starting point is 00:13:17 $2 more than Aeronado. Same price as Austin Riley. It's kind of, unless you have a contact for the way, heads, I'm just going on CBS Sports HQ. Okay. Bye. I'm here. Okay.
Starting point is 00:13:29 unless you have context for how head-to-head points auctions play out stating the number that he would the dollar amount that they went for wall like that doesn't mean anything but yeah yeah I would say the fact that he went for the same amount
Starting point is 00:13:48 as Austin Riley and for more than Nolan Aaronado shows that mostly people are on the same page with this somebody asked if this hurts Connor Joe someone that you and I like quite bit. And it seems like Chris Bryan is going to play in the outfield. They have Ryan McMahon who plays third base. You know, they can mix and match, whatever. But Rasta Resource has Sam Hilliard in center field, Rhymel Tapia, and right field, Charlie Blackman
Starting point is 00:14:12 at DH. Do you worry about this affecting our boy, Connor Joe? Not in a significant way. I mean, it's ultimately going to come down to how much the Rockies want to play him. And, you know, they have they have an additional lineup spot now with the DH coming to the NL, obviously, and what have Sam Hilliard and even Ryan Miltopi has shown? Not a whole lot. So it seemed like the Rockies were committed to playing Conor Joe down the stretch last year. I suppose that could change. But until I hear them say, this is our starting outfield and it doesn't include Connor Joe, I'm going to assume it does. All right. So the stock way up for Chris Bryant. I would argue, Scott, you said that this was the biggest move of the day in terms of fantasy.
Starting point is 00:14:57 value, I would argue this is the biggest move all off season in terms of somebody gaining value is Chris Bryant to the Colorado Rocky. So moving up about 40, 50 spots in ADP inside the top 60, top 50, and it's warranted. Other news and signings from the day, hit the music, he's going home, he's going home. Zach Rankie, he signed a one-year deal, $13 million with the Kansas City Royals. Last year, 4.16 ERA, a 1.17 whip. The strikeouts, Lummitted, but he did provide 171 innings, so still has the volume there. Scott, I looked a little bit
Starting point is 00:15:33 deeper. He got destroyed his final four starts. I didn't realize that. He had an 11.74 ERA, those final four. His first 26 starts, 3.41 ERA. I know that you've been on Granky all offseason. What do you think about this move, the landing spot with the Kansas City
Starting point is 00:15:49 Royals? Look, I'd rather him be with a contender, though the Royals are about to break in a lot of exciting hitters. Bobby wit potentially as soon as opening day. Nick Prado, that's the name. Nick Prado and M.J. Melendez right behind him.
Starting point is 00:16:06 I was thinking Eric Hosmer, man. Nick Prado. And, you know, I don't think the Royals are going to be a bottom of the division club, is what I'm saying. I don't think they're going to be contenders. I think they're going to be right there around 500. And, you know, Granky will be a part of that
Starting point is 00:16:23 because I still think, obviously, since I've been talking about them up as a sleeper. I still think he has something left. There wasn't a clear loss of stuff last year. You mentioned for the majority of last year, he looked pretty normal. And going to a bigger park only improves his chances of rebounding. Plus, he's in a division with some pretty suspect lineups, right? I guess not so much because the Royals is one of the more suspect lineups.
Starting point is 00:16:56 Yeah, he's got the white socks. they're a good one. Twins, I think better than most. They're pretty good. They're solid. Tigers are getting better, but still aren't great. Cleveland stinks. Whatever.
Starting point is 00:17:06 Like, they're so bad. They have Jose Ramirez, but I mean, geez, they are so bad. So, all right, start Zach Rinkie and all your matchups against the Cleveland Guardians this season. The ADP for Granky is 285. Scott, ranked this group of four. Tony Gonslin, Alex Cobb, Carlos Carrasco, Zach Granky. They're all going within six picks of each other.
Starting point is 00:17:25 Okay, so I'll probably make a difference points or categories and just how my team build is going, what kind of risk I want to take on. But if you're forcing me to just come up with one rank list for those four, I think I go, I think I go Grinky 1, Carrasco 2, Cob 3, Gonslund 4. All right, yeah, I mean, look, it's a great group, right? You've talked up Tony Gonsland basically all offseason,
Starting point is 00:17:56 but those are some fun pitchers to target later on in your draft. Scott, you mentioned Bobby Witt, and all of a sudden, third base might not be so bad because Bobby Witt Jr. apparently is going to be given an opportunity to win the opening day third base job with the Kansas City Royals, which means Adelberto Mondece will be the starting shortstop. We'll get to that in just a little bit. But, Scott, I mean, do we have to move Bobby Witt up our?
Starting point is 00:18:23 our overall rankings, obviously, you know, he doesn't have third base eligibility yet, but it sounds like he could be up soon, lots of upside, prospect pedigree, at a position that we really could use it. Well, within the shortstop ranks anyway, because of course that's the only place he's eligible right now. I don't feel like I have room to move him up.
Starting point is 00:18:43 I already moved him ahead of Willie Adamas earlier. And so I feel even more justified in doing that as much as I like Willie Adamas, right? Yeah, I mean, he still has to win the job. But I agree that it's a pretty big deal that third base is what they're thinking for him. And we presumed it would be second, I think. That's what I presume. Nikki Lopez at short, Mondesie at third, Witt whenever he arrived at second.
Starting point is 00:19:14 But yeah, third's more valuable for sure. You currently have Bobby Witt six spots behind Anthony Rendon in your overall rank. rankings, would you maybe put Witt ahead of Rendon with the idea that he's going to gain third base eligibility? Not right now, no, because he stills to win the job. And I think he'll win the job, but it's not with enough conviction yet to make that move. If he does win the job, I will move Witt ahead of Rendon in categories leagues and roto leagues. I wouldn't in points leagues, though. Obviously, that's Rendon's better format.
Starting point is 00:19:50 All right. And speaking of Anthony Rendon said on Wednesday that he's 100% healthy entering this season, not dealing with any lingering effects of the hip injury. He is one to watch throughout spring training, make sure that he's feeling well. Obviously, he can move around and how he's doing in the batters box as well. Jack Peterson signed a one-year, $6 million deal with the Giants last year. He hit 238, 18 homers, two steals. The Giants love to platoon, so I don't think he's going to be an everyday player. I mean, I think it's probably more so for deeper leagues. and only maybe 15 team mixed leagues, but what do you think about Jack Peterson to San Francisco?
Starting point is 00:20:27 Yeah, he's kind of an afterthought, even in those deep 15 team roto leagues, and I agree. He's just a, he's just a cog in the machine for them. He pretty much was with the Braves last year, too. He wasn't, by the end, he wasn't one of their starting three outfielders.
Starting point is 00:20:44 So I think even more so with the Giants and not the greatest park to hit in either. Mm-hmm. Yeah, especially for left-handed power, right? So Oracle Park has played up better recently for offense, but still not great overall for left-handed power. We've got a bunch of news, actually, so let's just hop around here. Cardinals, new manager, Oliver Marmole, said that he likely won't have a set closer to begin the 2022 season. Obviously not good news for Giovanni Gallegos, who has fantastic stuff. Great ratio, strikeouts the past couple of seasons. Whatever reason, they are just hesitant. to give this guy the closer role, Scott, does that mean we avoid Gallegos for now? Do we push him down the relief pitcher ranks? So I've kind of, my opinions on Gallegos have been kind of all over the place, right?
Starting point is 00:21:35 I have said before that I think people weren't accounting enough for the possibility that Cardinals don't want him as a full-time closer because they never have before. And then I acknowledged just that last week that it sounded like, you know, early interviews from people in the Cardinals organization that they were using the word closer with him.
Starting point is 00:21:54 Now the manager drops this line. I don't read a ton into it because I feel like this is just the default thing managers say when they don't have, you know, they don't have like an enrolled as Chapman or a Kenley Janssen or somebody who's been in that role for so long. This is just what they're supposed to say now. We don't have set roles.
Starting point is 00:22:15 Just, you know, you could lose the game in the seventh inning. Like, that's just the right thing to say for managers now. They'll get criticized if they don't say that. But, of course, that's not usually the way it plays out. So, yeah, I mean, I'm still a little concerned about them preferring Gallegos and sort of that fireman role, bridging from the starter to the closer, maybe going a couple of innings instead of just one. But I think he's still the heavy favorite to, to, to, to, lead the team in saves and by considerable margin.
Starting point is 00:22:52 I think there's a level of gamesmanship involved, too, Scott, where, you know, if you don't have to reveal that someone is pitching in the ninth inning, why would you, right? I mean, you don't want to, you know, give it away to the opposing team, right? So I think that we see a lot of that in baseball as well. Yes, Chris, I see you waving your arms. You are back, and nobody can hear you because you were muted for a second. How you doing? How was your hit on HQ?
Starting point is 00:23:16 Oh, it was great. Big movie star that, Chris. I think everybody was happy about it. All right. I just, I got to say, the commenters are all wanting me to react more emotionally to the Freddie Freeman signing. I was trying to avoid it because I think people are getting tired of it. But all the comments are telling me otherwise. I will sit back and let you go, Scott.
Starting point is 00:23:42 I do want to say it kind of sounds like you're gearing up for one of your Michael Buttery bits. I'm not. No. It would probably make it better, though. So they paid Matt Olson 100. They paid four prospects and 168 million to Matt Olson. The Dodgers get Freddie Freeman for 162 million. That's point A. Point B is it sounds like, if reports are accurate, the highest the Braves offered Freeman was $145 million over five years. Heyman just said 140 for what it's worth. I've seen others say 145, but maybe it is only 140. For that extra year, it's not as much more money total as you'd expect for getting an extra year, right? I feel like it doesn't make sense for Freddie Freeman to do this. I feel like it doesn't. I don't really understand what happened here because the Braves weren't that far off.
Starting point is 00:24:46 and supposedly all of the last season after winning the World Series he's like I'm a lifelong brave blah blah blah blah want to be here forever all that stuff so either he I can really
Starting point is 00:24:59 seeing now the terms he ended up accepting from the Dodgers versus the terms he could have accepted from the Braves I see only four plausible explanations here one he didn't he just didn't mean
Starting point is 00:25:12 what he was saying about wanting to be a lifelong brave Two, he did mean it, but he had a change of heart this offseason who was at home in California. It's really nice here. I don't know that I want to do that working across the country thing anymore.
Starting point is 00:25:27 Just changed his mind. Okay. Three, his agent is completely incompetent and overplayed his hand and was nickel and diming the one team that Freddie Freeman really wanted to play for and he got screwed because of it. Or four, what was four?
Starting point is 00:25:47 Four was that Freddie Freeman just didn't communicate his wishes to his agent very well. Those are the four plausible scenarios I see for how this played out. To me, the least sad. I think you're leaving one out. I'll take more, I'll take whoever gives me the most money, but that would seem to contradict with number one. We have reports that the Braves apparently didn't communicate with Freddie Freeman, their intentions to trade for Matt Olson.
Starting point is 00:26:17 And so that indicates potentially a lack of respect. I feel like that falls into category three, agent in competence. But I, but that's, but if, but I see, I, I think you're leaving out the potential that just like, he felt disrespected by the Braves. Like, I'm the, I'm the guy who won MVP. I'm the guy who helped carry your team. to this point, I know you guys are printing money, $314 million in profit over the past five season.
Starting point is 00:26:50 I know that in 2028, when you guys are so terrified about the prospect of me making $4 million than Matt Olson, that you're going to be paying $24 million combined for Ozzy all a reason, wrong. When you say you intend to be a lifelong brave, there is... I don't think that means you have to take a hometown discount. Well, you're kind of implying it, right? I don't think so. I think it also implies that, like, yeah, I want to be here,
Starting point is 00:27:20 but I'm owed a level of respect from the franchise. Well, look what the Dodgers gave him. They didn't respect him that much more. I mean, they gave him. They met his wishes. He wanted the six years. The Braves never gave him a six year. Only after the door was closed.
Starting point is 00:27:39 I don't think that's true. You think, you think, You think the Braves traded for Matt Olson and all of a Southern Dodgers are like, oh, crap, we got to add a sixth year. That Freddie Freeman had less leverage. Sure. Well, he could have taken it earlier. Right. To me, that potentially says that he wanted the Braves to offer more.
Starting point is 00:27:57 Right. And when they didn't, he said, screw you. Okay, getting back to my four points. I think number two, number two, which was, I'm forgetting what the numbers were now. Number two was he had a change of heart in the office. to just want to stay home. That is the least, that's the one that's not as sad as the others to me.
Starting point is 00:28:17 So that's the one I choose to believe. And the thing is, like we're never going to find out. Maybe he'll write, you know, his memoir after he retires and we'll find out then. But almost certainly we won't find out before then. So you just got to pick what you believe
Starting point is 00:28:33 and go forward with that. So hopefully that was a good enough rate. I need to see Alex Anthopoulos cry one more time to really believe it. Scott, I feel like we're getting, you know, not yet, obviously, you know, you've got them more in the loss of Freddie Freeman. But we're getting closer to closing the door, especially after your son drew that fantastic picture that you posted on Twitter, right? Try and cheer you up.
Starting point is 00:28:57 Oh, yeah. If I got out here. Look at this. So what this says is, I hope you feel better soon. And I kind of gave him a funny look when he gave it to me. And he's like, not because, not like because you're sick. because you're sad that your favorite player is gone. Oh, that's great.
Starting point is 00:29:15 So I was like, wow, I am really, I'm really mopey, aren't I? I think we're just at stage three. Monday was anger. Monday was denial. Tuesday was anger. Today's bargain. That sounds like bargaining to me, baby. Tomorrow's depression.
Starting point is 00:29:35 By Friday. You're off Friday, Scott. Friday's acceptance day. There you go. There you go. Let's get back into the news and notes. I do want to get to some rankings debates as well today. Mentioned some good prospect news earlier with Bobby Witt. Let's get to the bad prospect news. Adley Ruchman shut down with a tricep strain. Manager Brandon Hyde is hopeful that Ruchman will be out for just two to three weeks.
Starting point is 00:29:58 Scott, do you just avoid Adley Ruchman right now with this injury? Yeah, I mean, look, it's going to be really hard to stash an extra catcher on your roster. That's why I've seemed less eager to draft them in the first place because I'm Well, I think there's a pretty good chance. Witt makes the Royals opening day roster. I think there's almost no chance Rushman, even if he was healthy, he would have made the Orioles roster. So yeah, in two catcher leagues, maybe I draft him.
Starting point is 00:30:26 In one catcher leagues, he's outside the top 12 for me. All right. Which one's the tricep? Is that this guy back here? Or is that the forearm? Yeah, that guy back here. Okay. Back here.
Starting point is 00:30:37 That's less concerning, I guess. If it had been like a forearm, then maybe it'd be like, we've seen this before with an Orioles catcher. You know, you don't want to have Tommy John surgery. That would be a worst case scenario for a catcher especially. Triceps injury, I don't worry too much about it. Hopefully it doesn't delay his timetable too much. But yeah, I think he's not going to open the year on the major league IL.
Starting point is 00:31:04 So you're not going to be able to put him in an IL spot. So it does make it a little trickier. The Padre has officially signed Nick Martinez to a four-year $20 million deal. and it looks like he's going to be in the Padres rotation. That's the guy who used to pitch for the Rangers. If you've been playing fantasy baseball for a couple of years, 2014 to 2017, he wasn't great, but last year in Japan,
Starting point is 00:31:24 kind of like reinvented himself, 1.62 ERA, almost a strikeout per inning. A name just to watch in deeper leagues, and only a deeper, mixed 15-team Roto leagues, stuff like that. Jeremy Pena was named the frontrunner for the Astros starting shortstop job, unless, of course, they signed somebody, like Carlos Correa or Trevor.
Starting point is 00:31:42 story. Last year in 37 minor league games, Jeremy Pena hit 297 with 10 homers and six steals. Another name to watch in deeper leagues. Amir Garrett was traded to the Royals in exchange for Mike Minor. According to Reds GM, Nick Crawl, Luis Castillo and Tyler Malley will not be traded. Not sure that I believe that. Deep League bullpen information. Tyler Wells of the Orioles may be moved into a multi-enning role this season. So I've seen Cole Solcer, Jorge Lopez thrown out there, Tanner name. It's the Orioles closer, so it's not great anyway. The Cubs signed both David Robertson and Chris Martin, maybe compete in the back end there with Rowan Wick. Can we get a cold play drop for when we mentioned Chris Martin? Maybe just the
Starting point is 00:32:28 do-na-da-da-da-da-da-no. Frank, you don't, you don't got that one? No, no, I know what I know Coldplay is, but is that- Chris Martin is the lead singer of Coldplay in addition to being the new Cubs or reliever. Gotcha. Gotcha. Um, I I mean, I could work something in. I don't know how often we're going to talk about Chris Martin, though. And if you are wondering about Matt Chapman, Kyle Schwaburber, I mean, there were so many moves today. Sayas Suzuki, Eddie Rosario, Fernando Tatee had surgery.
Starting point is 00:32:53 Chris Sale is hurt. Chris and I did an emergency podcast earlier on Wednesday. So you can listen to that to get our thoughts there. And Scott wrote a bunch about all of it on the site. So CBSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball. Before we hit the break, the madness is here. Don't miss a moment of the action on CBS, TBS, TBS. and True TV and download the March Madness Live app to watch every game anywhere, anytime, live.
Starting point is 00:33:19 And if you want to stay up to date with everything that's going on throughout the course of the tournament, you need to be listening to the Eye on College Basketball podcast. It's your audio guide for the entire tournament and everything you need to know about your brackets. Over the next few weeks, Gary Parrish and Matt Norlander will provide recaps after each day of tournament action and preview upcoming rounds. If you want the best March Madness analysis, follow and listen to the I On College Basketball podcast anywhere you find this one. We'll take a quick break when we return.
Starting point is 00:33:50 Rankings Debates, Scott versus Chris next. Fantasy Baseball today. All right, so let's jump in. And the way that we will do this, I'm timing you guys. You get to make your case for your ranking of each player on this list, and you will have no longer than a minute per player. Maybe less than that. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:34:10 I'll decide as we go along. But we will start with Aaron Nola, who Scott has as his SP12, and Chris has all the way up at SP7. Optimistic on the bounceback. So we will start with Chris. You are up first. Are you ready to go?
Starting point is 00:34:26 Aaron Nola. Yeah. Go. You're on the clock. So part of this, I think, is I don't know if Scott has moved Zach Wheeler lower than this place. I'm not 100% sure on that.
Starting point is 00:34:39 But look, for me, me, it's just that Aaronola for as bad as he was last season, 463RA, nothing in his underlying numbers really jumps out to me to explain why it happened. It was he struggled with runners on base. It seemed like there was bad, blanking on the term, but just bad luck, generally speaking. Like his ERA, his FIP, his ex-FIP were all well within the normal ranges of his career, 337, actually across the board, which is weird. X-R-A-FIP and X-FIP all agree that he was about a run-and-a-half better.
Starting point is 00:35:16 He's someone that you can pretty regularly rely on for big innings, big strikeout totals, and yeah, I just don't think there's been a significant change in skill set, so I just trust him more than the guys going as low-end SP-1s. Bad job, Chris. You went over by seven seconds, so I will dock that off the next time that you talk about a player. I mean, I don't have like a close.
Starting point is 00:35:42 talk in front of me. I'll hold it up next time. I'll hold my phone up. Yeah. This isn't PTI. We don't have the ding going on. That's fair. All right.
Starting point is 00:35:50 So Chris made the case for Aaron Nola. And Scott, I don't think that you're necessarily down on Nola, but Chris is just more excited about him than you are. So why do you have Nola ranked at SP12 rather than inside the top 10? Well, I mean, I basically agree with everything Chris said,
Starting point is 00:36:08 except for the last sentence that, I, what did he say? I feel, I feel. I trust him more than some of the other. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I, I, we just saw what can go wrong for Aaronola, and it was worse than I think could go wrong for Sandy Alcantara or Julio Arias.
Starting point is 00:36:34 Plus, there's just a little bit of like, I don't know, gamesmanship, I guess, where I don't feel like I don't feel like I have to. rank higher, Aeronola higher than this to draft him, you know? So that's part of it too. All right. Good job, Scott. You only used 46 seconds. You'll earn more time later on. Yeah. Look, the biggest issue for Aeronola last year, he gave up so many fly balls. So it's just like different than what we've seen from him in the past. And ultimately it led to more home runs and, you know, he got hit around a little bit here and there. And that is true. But XERA and XFIP in theory account for that.
Starting point is 00:37:12 And they don't suggest that he was anywhere near his bed. That seems like the obvious explanation. He did have his lowest ground ball rate of his career, 40%. But it was tied to a lower home run to fly ball ratio. So it didn't actually lead to that many more home runs. I don't think that explains it. It's weird. Aaron Nola is just weird, man.
Starting point is 00:37:33 You look at his career ERA, like just by season. 4.63 last year, 3-28 the year before, 3-8-7. 237, 354, 478, 359. So he's jumped around all over the place. He's fine. I don't want him as my SP1. That's what it comes down to for me. If he's, you know, if I invest in pitching early
Starting point is 00:37:54 and he winds up as my SP2, fine. But I don't feel good about him as my SP1 personally. Let's move on to the next one. Scott has Logan Webb at SP 18 and Chris has him down at SP 32. We have talked about Logan Webb quite a bit recently, but I don't know that we've heard Scott's side of it enough. So Scott, make the case for Logan Webb,
Starting point is 00:38:12 being a top 20 starting pitcher? Well, Frank, he was a stud over the final three months last year. A stud in every respect. And that was after returning from a shoulder injury. He went six innings plus in 12 of his final 14 starts, 268 ERA. Just taking into account his full season stats, his ground ball rate was higher than any qualifier. I think it was behind Framber Valdez by a significant margin.
Starting point is 00:38:48 Frambervildes was also a non-qualifier. But ground balls are something we know Webb's capable of all along. And so, I mean, the fact that he's proven he can consistently pitch deep into games and his skill set is so suited for run suppression and he's in that big park and he's got that great supporting cast. It's just like all the, he checks all the boxes except for, you know, he's only done it once. He's only done it once. Chris has brought up the point that it came out of nowhere, but I, you know, I kind of, I kind of dispute that. I kind of dispute that because I was really high on him going into last season.
Starting point is 00:39:30 He's unveiling this new change up in spring training, was getting a lot more whiffs. He didn't use it super consistently last year, but there were games where, It looked like his best pitch. So, yeah, I think more likely than not Logan Webb is legit. And there are only so many assurances you can get its starting pitcher anyway. All right. A minute and 40 seconds. How dare you?
Starting point is 00:39:53 Chris. I felt like a long time. I took a winding path to my. We're going to string me up for an extra seven seconds. Seems unfair. I might just have to ban scout from the next one. Sounds like the judge is biased. I think we need him.
Starting point is 00:40:08 I think we need to cut around. All right, Chris, you have Logan Webb bunch lower SP 32. Make the case against. Yeah, I've got him as a bust. And partially it's concerns that what we saw last season wasn't entirely real. You know, I feel like there's an overreaction to that 14-start stretch or whatever small sample size you want to cut it up into. It's a small sample size nonetheless. He made 19 starts before 2021.
Starting point is 00:40:33 Yes, he made changes to his arsenal and that's great. But he was really bad. in those first 19 starts. And, you know, his minor league track record is good, but not necessarily the kind of production that screams future ace, 337 ERA, 132 whip, 8.2K per 9. So there's a lot riding on this 14-game stretch
Starting point is 00:40:59 being reflective of a legitimate and real change in his skill set. In addition to the fact that missed time with a shoulder injury last year, That's always a red flag. We're seeing it with Jack Flaherty right now. I think shoulder injuries are as concerning as anything else for pitchers. All right. You almost got it there. All right. The case against Logan Webb, you've you talked me out of him a little bit, Chris, recently. More so the shoulder injury than anything. I like the changes he made to the pitch mix last year. Obviously, the ground balls are fantastic. It's a great venue. It's a great organization to pitch for two. So I lean closer. sort of like where his ADP is at, but I understand the concerns. I don't know why the shoulder injury is concerning when he's already, like, the best stretch of his career came after it. So the shoulder's obviously okay. It's fair. Right? Yeah. I mean, what are we worried about? I don't know if it's okay, though.
Starting point is 00:41:54 Like, that's the thing is that like, how many have pitched so well? Eyes can, well, because we, we see guys pitch through, come back from injuries, look like themselves and then suffer setbacks. Like, that's not something that's, out of the question. That's not something that we don't see. So I just, I don't think that necessarily proves that it's not a risk. He's a pitcher who had a not insignificant shoulder injury last season. I don't, I don't see how that can't be viewed as a red flag. And just because we haven't heard about it yet in spring doesn't mean that we won't. Just the way that we injury. What's that? What was, what was the injury that was so significant? What was it called?
Starting point is 00:42:35 I mean, he missed like eight weeks with a shoulder injury. That alone is not nothing. Well, yeah, but he's a major league. Whatever. I don't agree. I don't agree. You were about to say, yeah, he's a major league pitcher. But yeah, the baseline injury risk is incredibly high for all pitchers.
Starting point is 00:42:55 So when you're inviting it in with a guy who wants a small sample size that we're judging him off of, like we're effectively where he's being drafted and ranked this year. To a certain extent, we're kind of saying everything before the shoulder injury just doesn't really matter all that much. That's how progression usually works, yeah. Right. Assuming he's progressing and assuming that there's no injury risk. I think though there are compounding risks in his profile.
Starting point is 00:43:25 All right. Let's move on to another pitcher here. And it's Trevor Rogers, who Scott has at SP34 and he, Chris has at SP 24, so 10 spots higher for Chris in the rankings, a breakout season, 2.64 ERA, 1.15 whip, only through 133 innings. Scott, you are up first the case against Trevor Rogers. Yeah, I just think, I mean, a lot of the same things Chris was saying about Logan Webb,
Starting point is 00:43:54 you could apply to Trevor Rogers as well. He wasn't that much of a prospect. He got hit very hard when we saw him in 2020. He had three months. last year where he looked amazing and we thought maybe this guy's emerging as an ace but then over the final two months significantly much less than amazing much less than amazing the IRA was near four he didn't go six innings in any of his last 11 starts I believe it is and and more than anything the swinging
Starting point is 00:44:24 strike rate difference between his first how many was it 16 starts 16% swinging strike rate in his first 16 starts versus 11% in his final nine. So that would suggest that it wasn't just bad luck. It wasn't just Marlins playing it safe with him. I'm not convinced I know who Trevor Rogers is as a pitcher. And so that's a lot to pay considering. All right.
Starting point is 00:44:53 A little bit better at that time. Over by like five, six seconds. Chris, the case for Trevor Rogers, one of the, I guess, New Age Stallions. I know you guys used to have like the old crew. Oh, he's definitely a stallion. Yeah, the stallions are still in force. And each one is more magnificent than last.
Starting point is 00:45:11 The thing about Trevor Rogers, I think there's this perception that Trevor Rogers is, I don't know, that he's had this history of injuries that is the reason why the Marlins were careful with his innings last season. And it was really, that really hasn't been the case. He actually threw 136 in 2019 over 23 starts. So it's not like he missed a ton of time. He made 17 starts in 2018.
Starting point is 00:45:33 That was his first season as a professional. I don't know if there was an injury there. Maybe there was. But I don't think the limited innings were a red flag moving forward. I think it was the Marlins managing his innings. And yeah, the second half numbers weren't as good. I think there were extenuating circumstances there, particularly with the fact that he missed in the entire month of August,
Starting point is 00:45:57 dealing with a family issue, not an injury. I don't know if there's like a perception of, that as well, but it wasn't an injury. We don't know when he learned about the issue, how long it might have been going on. But that's the kind of thing that we just like, we don't know what was happening there. But the upside we saw from Trevor Rogers, as good as Logan Webb was in the second half last season, the upside we saw from Trevor Rogers was, I think, significantly higher. Because we were talking about a guy who was running up strikeout rates in the 30 plus percent range. He basically has three really good swing and miss pitches.
Starting point is 00:46:31 He doesn't have the high ground ball rate, but his batted ball date is actually really good. It was actually really good in 2020 as well in limited sample size. So I just think we're looking at a pitcher in Trevor Rogers who does pretty much everything you want a pitcher to do well with the exception of ground balls. And he mitigates that by not giving up loud contact. So in terms of skill set, I think he's a potential top 12 guy. Mercy. All right. We have our longest debate of the day.
Starting point is 00:47:00 it comes from Chris Towers, but a good one. Trevor Rogers, lots of upside. Same thing with Logan Webb. It's great ballpark to pitch in for Rogers. They developed the change up last year. It was a great pitch from, I'd like to see him use the slider more. It's a really good whiff pitch for him, but the usage on a start-to-start basis was pretty inconsistent for Trevor Rogers. And the endings, I don't know, what does he get to? Like 150, 160, hopefully. I think that would be a nice mark for Trevor Rogers to aim for. Next up, we have another, starting pitcher. One of the top prospects in the game, Shane Boz, who Scott has at SP 37. Chris has all the way down at SP 55. Chris, we will start with you first this time. But before that, just
Starting point is 00:47:42 want to read out the numbers. Shane Boz was ridiculous last year. 17 starts in the minors, 206 ERA, 0.80 whip, 113 strikeouts to 13 walks. Over 78 and 2 thirds, endings pitched. Chris, why are you more out on Shane Boz than Scott is? I don't know if I even have much interest in debating this one, because I'm not really doubting the talent with Shane Boz. It's more just a question of how much can you rely on him. I think when he pitches, it's entirely possible that for the time he's active, he's a top 36 starting pitcher and maybe higher.
Starting point is 00:48:19 But he threw 91 innings last season, maybe 94 or 95, including the postseason start. That's an especially low number. And that would require an incredibly conservative Tampa Bay race team to, I mean, what, do a 50 inning jump to get him to the point where you're not worried that he's either going to be shut down at some point or severely limited. So I just, I don't know what the shape of a season for Shane Boz is where he finishes as a top 40 starting pitcher. All right, good job. 47 seconds there. Scott, what are you thinking about Shane Boz this year? What is a fair innings projection? this upcoming season. I can't really see him going past like 140. So it's just where in your rankings
Starting point is 00:49:06 are you comfortable accepting less than a full workload from a pitcher? That's really what it comes down to. And I have Baws behind all the guys who I think are capable of doing what he does or nearly like of delivering something close to ace level production over more innings than he's going to pitch.
Starting point is 00:49:30 And kind of buzz is the top pitcher I rank after that group. So I have him behind correct me if I'm wrong, but I have him behind like Adam Wainwright and Chris Bassett, big innings eaters, both of them. I have him behind Dylan Sees and even Trevor Rogers and Shane McClanahan. All of those guys have innings concerns themselves, though not as Stark. So it's
Starting point is 00:49:54 you know, it's just rather than settling for the Sean Maniah, Nathan Avaldi, Tyler Malley tier, who almost certainly aren't going to give you Ace level production, even if it's over more innings. I think I'd rather have Shane Boss. It's worth pointing out, though, that... And I can't remember a single mock
Starting point is 00:50:11 where I've been in a position to draft Boss, so I don't see much reason to move him down. If I was drafting him way too much, it'd be different. Yeah, there's a lot of people who like him, and rightfully so. The talent is there. The stuff is ridiculous for Shane Boss. We saw it. Final three starts of the season where he was in the majors.
Starting point is 00:50:28 He looked great. It's just, what is the workload going to look like? We have that concern for a lot of pitchers going in a similar range. Clayton Kershaw and Pablo Lopez with his shoulder and Carl Swardan with his shoulder. So lots of injury concerns and or workload concerns for young starting pitchers like Shane Baas. Let's get to some outfielders here. I'll admit, going through your guys rankings, the infield, you're very on par with each other. Same page.
Starting point is 00:50:54 It was very hard to find rankings, debates. But Outfield, there are a few rankings that are all over the place here. Gosh, Outfield's my least favorite position to rank. It's even worse than starting pitcher. You'd think pitcher would be worse because there's so many more,
Starting point is 00:51:06 but something about the outfield. It's just like there are so many redundancies, it feels like. I feel like you probably could have chosen Luis Arras for like three different positions. Yeah, but we talk about Arias a lot, and we already know by now that you love him and Scott doesn't.
Starting point is 00:51:19 So I feel like people have heard about Arias enough. And maybe, you know, we talk about Lord Escorial a lot, but I haven't heard Scott's thoughts on him. So Scott has him at outfielder 41, and Chris has him all the way up at outfielder 30. So, Scott, why so low on Lord of Scuriel? Oh, well, I don't think I'm going to be able to pull up my rankings here quickly enough, but I think it's probably more a matter of there are just other outfielders that I feel like I need to take ahead of him, like Marcelo Zuna and Jorge Saler, who I know I moved ahead of him today. So Lear just has so much power potential
Starting point is 00:51:56 And I think what we saw from him in the second half last year Is closer to his truer form. Ozuna, it's looking more and more like he's going to be an everyday player for the Braves. And if that's the case, I mean, he was the top outfielder in fantasy two years ago. So certainly would take him over Lordus Gurriel. Jared Kelnick, I know is just a few spots ahead of Gurriel, and he has massive breakout potential. I like Gurriel fine
Starting point is 00:52:22 and I love the lineup context I just think I'm more I just think the ceiling for those players is higher and it's at a point in the draft when I'm looking more towards ceiling 57 seconds alright good job Scott Chris
Starting point is 00:52:38 help me out here bud you know I'm all in on Lordus Gurriel are you as well yeah I mean not all in because there's a little bit of me in the back of my mind that like is Lordus Gariel just a guy I don't know because the best we've seen of him came in two partial seasons, the 2020 and then 2019.
Starting point is 00:52:56 But over those two seasons, he was 31 homers in a 290 batting average over 141 games. So if that's who he is in this Blue Jays lineup, then he's going to be awesome. He even stole nine bases. And I think you have a pretty good explanation for why he was so underwhelming for so much of last season. That's that he was dealing with a knee injury. You can see that in the fact that he only attempted four stolen bases in 141 games
Starting point is 00:53:19 after attempting 14 in the previous 141. So that seems like a pretty good excuse for Geryl being down last year. And I just, it's a relatively cheap opportunity to get a bite of what could be the best lineup in baseball with a guy who's proven he can be productive. So that's mostly what it is. But I don't disagree that Marcelo Zuna might have more upside or, you know, Jared Kalanick, it's theoretical. But they're certainly upside there as well. You know what? The two that I think might be most questionable
Starting point is 00:53:51 that I have ahead of Gurriel are Robbie Grossman and Hunter Renfro. I talked about Renfro a lot and why I like him. He was the 19th best outfielder in Roto last league and I think it was legit. Grossman is... Nobody seems to want Grossman.
Starting point is 00:54:06 And I get it. He's not a very talented player, but he did go 2020 last year. He's always done a good job getting on base, so I think his job's going to be safe because of that. And it's just like, He's just a nice fit for that stage of the draft. If you're looking for some home run help.
Starting point is 00:54:24 Yeah. Roder, the speed. Stolen base help. Yeah, like he stole 20 bases and that was his first double-digit season, but he stole eight and 51 games in 2020 as well. So this is a new thing.
Starting point is 00:54:36 As an everyday player. Yeah, it's a new thing that he's doing. Yeah. Yeah. Robbie Grossman, one of 10 players to go 2020 last season. So quite the accomplishment there for him. Let's talk about Joey Gallo.
Starting point is 00:54:47 who Scott has at Outfielder 43. Chris has at Outfielder 33. I feel like we kind of know who Joey Gallo is at this point, but batting averages just so bad. Chris, we will start with you, the case for Joey Gallo rebounding with the Yankees. Yeah, you know, he reminds me of like Billy Hamilton back in the day where at the end of the season,
Starting point is 00:55:10 you would look at where he finished in various rhodo formulations, and it's like, really, Billy Hamilton was that good? I feel like Joey Gallo could be that kind of good. guy. But it's also like there are so few players with the legitimate difference making power that Joey Gallo has. I mean, we talk about like Kyle Schwarber as someone who we think can be a 40 homer guy. Well, Joey Gallo has done it twice. And he hit 38 last season. And if you ask any Yankees fan last season, they will tell you that he's the worst player in baseball. So, like, that kind of tells you, like, I don't, I think last year was closer to.
Starting point is 00:55:47 to a worst case scenario for him than the most likely. I think 77 RBI especially feels low for a guy who hits 38 home runs. And it's just it's about as safe a power bat as you can get
Starting point is 00:56:03 assuming that the team that you build can live with the low batting average. And on base percentage league, I think he's actually quite safe and I think he's a top 60 player. That's true. I would agree with you there. On base percentage huge boost for Joey Gallo.
Starting point is 00:56:19 Chris, try explaining to Yankee fans this 160 batting average that he had in 58 games while he was playing with the Yankees. It was quite bad. He didn't do it personally to you. I just want you to understand that. He was too...
Starting point is 00:56:33 He wasn't screaming every Yankees fan's name as he struck out. Too busy worrying about how he was putting his uniform on or taking it off or whatever he was doing. It's, I don't know, weird routine that he has going on. Scott, the case against Joe, we go look it's as simple as i don't want him and so i've ranked him to ensure that i don't get him it's really as simple as that because he's just such a a difficult fit he's a difficult fit and i think
Starting point is 00:57:02 i think adam duval not exactly because you know gallagher gets on base more and the ultimate power ceiling is higher but i i feel like you can get deval so much later if you really want to make a power ground in the power categories at expensive batting average. And you can't really have both on the same team. That's a bad idea. Part of the reason I don't want Gallo is just because I don't trust myself to manage him correctly. He is so streaky. And like when he's bad, there's just nothing happening there. And it can be for weeks at a time. I don't trust myself to ride it out, to keep taking those awful stats
Starting point is 00:57:45 and not try and improve my team's standing while I'm waiting for Gallow to get back on track. I trust him to get back on track. I don't trust myself to trust him to get back on track in the moment it's happening. This kind of gets to like the old, I feel like it was an Anthony Rizzo debate, the like he's due or he's streaky thing
Starting point is 00:58:07 that we used to do with Adam. And like, with Gallo, it's like, oh, he's streaky, so ride him while he's hot. And it's like, yeah, but do you ever really know when a player is and isn't hot unless it's after the fact? Like, you know what a player is present. Yeah, no, no, that's what I'm saying is that you know when a player is presently hot. But does that really tell you all that much about whether they are likely to continue to be hot moving forward? I think no. And so I agree with you. Like, he's just a frustrating player. And it's the kind of guy that like you have to intentionally build your
Starting point is 00:58:42 team and then intentionally ride it. Yeah. And that's really difficult to do. I've tried to do it before. Yeah. I've tried to do it before. And I hated it. I just hated it. I hated having Gallo, so I don't want him anymore. No, that's fair. Yeah, a very frustrating player when he's cold, but a very fun player to watch when he's going hot. Let's just do one more here. Someone I feel like we haven't talked about at all really this offseason. Avisa Al Garcia, who signed with the Miami Marlins. He is outfielders six. For Scott, he is outfielder of 45 for Chris, and Scott, we'll start with you this time. Why so low on Aviciel Garcia?
Starting point is 00:59:21 Well, he was, he's coming off career best numbers, having played a season in Milwaukee. He's going opposite end of the spectrum here now for hitters in Miami. We saw the way Christian Yelich's career was transformed, going the other way. and let me tell you, skills-wise, Garcia ain't no yellage. So he doesn't put the ball in the air that much, and I don't think he hits it hard enough, consistently enough, to deliver a respectable home run total in that park. I think he needs a smaller, at least neutral park.
Starting point is 01:00:00 And if he's not giving you home runs, like, what else is he doing for you? Batting average, eh. maybe double-digit steals, but probably not. Doesn't get on base a ton. So he's not going to score many runs in bad lineup context on top of it. So yeah, I just, I don't think, I see him as somebody you stream off waivers, really. And I don't have much interest in drafting him. I find the home runs-of-fly ball ratio, curious, too.
Starting point is 01:00:30 Last year, 26%, and he was at 17% for his career. So can, you know, he keep that up? in Miami. Chris, what do you think? Can he do it? For what it's worth, the expected numbers were actually even better for him, which has been a consistent theme throughout his career in the Stacast era. There has only been one season back in 2017 when he outperformed his expected stats. That's weird. And expected stats also account for the venue he's playing in, right? So, yeah, but not environmental factors. And they don't account for speed. He is a, you know, a quite fast, player. So that would actually be something that you would think might work in his favor, but it hasn't
Starting point is 01:01:12 been the case so far. But no, I get it. And I think there's, there are a lot of reasons to think he's a relatively unexciting player. But I also look at the numbers over the past five seasons. You know, he really took a step forward in 2017 in, in a lot of respects. And there's been ups and down since then. He's had two really bad seasons, one really good one, two, two good ones, I would say. And then one kind of mediocre one. But overall, his 162 game pace, 278 average, 26 homers, 90 RBI, eight steals, 81 runs. It's not a great lineup, but I don't think the counting stats, if he does that, I don't think the counting stats will be so bad that he's unplayable. And I do think there's a lot to like about the underlying skill set that he's shown over the last few years. I do think he hits the
Starting point is 01:02:00 ball hard enough to be, you know, not a 26% homer-und-to-fly ball ratio guy like he was, but, you know, maybe high teens. And if he can be a 25 plus homer guy and potentially steal 10 bases and potentially be pretty useful in batting average, I just, I think there's a lot of guys with a profile like that that we chase. And obviously, El Garcia gives you a very cheap opportunity to get that kind of profile. All right. Let's just quickly check the 80s.
Starting point is 01:02:30 ADP on Avicel Garcia. He is going right now, 174.4. So going just behind Marcel Ozuna. You know, it's not... I would rather have Marcel O'Suna. Of course. Assuming he's playing the normal role and that,
Starting point is 01:02:50 yeah, his numbers will be better. Yeah. And Ozuna, I know, Scott, you mentioned him earlier. He's climbed inside the top 40 outfield ranks for each of us. So I think he's right around 35 or 36. and, you know, if he has a good spring, could see him potentially climbing even more. But we're going to wrap there. Who won the rankings debates?
Starting point is 01:03:07 Let us know in the YouTube comments or tweet at us, and we'll talk about it. Let's have some fun. Scott and Chris, I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching. Fantasy baseball today. We'll be back in tomorrow. Bye-bye.

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