Fantasy Baseball Today - Gabriel Moreno Promotion, Rankings Process Plus Risers & Fallers (6/9 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: June 9, 2022

Chris was right! Gabriel Moreno will be called up by the Blue Jays (1:00). Is he a must-add? ... Sandy Alcantara is amazing (7:02)! Bryson Stott is heating up. ... We got big games from the Phillies ...and Braves' offenses on Wednesday (13:45). What's going on with Rhys Hoskins? ... How legit are Andres Gimenez and Christian Walker (17:35)? ... Which projected two-start pitchers should you look to add right now (24:47)? ... News and notes (32:34): Mike Trout and Starling Marte were both out Wednesday. ... What is our process when ranking players rest-of-season (39:43)? ... Who are the biggest rankings risers and fallers (46:20)? ... We wrap up with leftovers, bullpen updates and streamers (53:46). Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get 20% off Fantasy Baseball Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:03 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question, email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. Welcome to Majors, Gabriel Moreno, and welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday, June 9th. Frank Stample joined by Chris Towers. Gabriel Moreno, catcher prospect for the Blue Jays.
Starting point is 00:00:39 getting promoted. Nice call by Chris on yesterday's podcast. Beat the waiver wire for two-star pitchers. We've got rankings, risers, and fallers, and much more. Before we even get to, oh my goodness gracious, let's just start with that prospect promotion, Chris, because it is a big one. Gabriel Moreno of the Blue Jays reportedly will join the team this weekend in Detroit and this is a top five to ten prospect in all of baseball's 60 grade hit tool, 55 grade power. That we haven't seen much of the power so far this season in the minors where he was hitting 324, one homer,
Starting point is 00:01:14 eight doubles, a 784 OPS. Gabriel Moreno, 25% rostered. And Chris, where do you plan to slot him in the rankings? And do you think that he will play enough? I've already updated them. And the running joke that we always have on this show is if your catcher eligible for fantasy and you have a pulse, you're probably going to be ranked in the top 20. And so that's exactly what I did. I moved him up to let's see, I moved him up to 17 in both head-to-head points and Roto. So right behind
Starting point is 00:01:48 MJ Melendez and Gary Sanchez, ahead of the likes of Austin Nola and Yadie Malina and Jonah Heim and just that whole, like there's just I'm basically saying there are like 16 catchers that I feel good about and then Gabriel Moreno
Starting point is 00:02:05 who, no, I don't know if he's going to play every day or play enough um you know but the blue jays are have been okay playing their catchers at d h occasionally um it's a little weird that they waited a couple days to call uh moreno up and called zach collins up instead not sure if that says anything about their willingness to use him regularly or how long he's going to be up but yeah that um the the potential there is enough for me to move him up. And I added him in the one league where I have open free agent claims.
Starting point is 00:02:45 I have Sean Murphy and Jose Trevino and Kurt Casali on that team. And so clearly, catcher is a problem for me. And ideally, I wouldn't have four catchers on my roster. So hopefully Gabriel Moreno can get hot early on and help me drop one of those guys. But yeah, I think if you have any need for a catcher, catcher at all. He's a must add player. Yeah, I have a few two catcher leagues where I added Brian Servin recently. He's my second catcher in one league, Cal Raleigh, who hit another home run here on Wednesday. You know, I'm rolling with those guys as my second catcher. I randomly wound up
Starting point is 00:03:24 with a lot of Wilson Contreras just felt like he kept falling in draft. So happy to have him. But my second catcher. I moved him up to my number two catcher. Yeah, rightfully. So I'm with you, Chris. I moved Gabriel Moreno up to my 16th rank. catcher. He's just behind MJ Melendez, Travis Darno, William Contreras. Those are the three catchers just ahead of him. And just behind him, Christian Vasquez,
Starting point is 00:03:48 Max Stacey, Jonah Heim, Sean Murphy. So I would take Gabriel Marino ahead of those names, even though Vasquez is playing well right now. But yeah, there is massive upside here. A lot of prospects recently have been called up and they don't hit right away. So that's probably the expectation for me, Chris.
Starting point is 00:04:04 But, you know, people might ask, well, what happens when Danny Jansen returns? He's probably out, I would say, at least three, maybe four weeks. He's dealing with a small fracture in his hamate bone. But if Gabriel Moreno hits Chris, he's going to stick around. Like, it's as easy as that. Yeah, like they'll figure it out. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:04:22 Like, Jansen, you know, I guess the concern would be that Jansen wasn't playing so much that, you know, if Moreno is just going to get that playing time, that's a concern. But then it's not really, I don't know, that it's hard to understand why they would call him up if it wasn't to play regularly. So I'm assuming that's what it's going to be. And yeah, like maybe one of them plays DH moving forward and they just keep Jansen, Kirk, and Moreno on the roster. You know, if Kirk keeps hitting like he does
Starting point is 00:04:55 and Moreno hits like he's capable of, one of those two guys is very much a DH quality bat. Moreno is an interesting prospect because so much of his value seems to come from his bat, like his hit tool. He hit eight home runs in 32 games last season at AA. That's kind of the outlier for his career. I'm not sure. Anyone really expects him to be a high-end power threat,
Starting point is 00:05:20 but he's got a little bit of speed. You know, he stole seven bases in 82 games in 2019. If he can be a five-steel guy rest of season, there's value in that if he hits 280. And that's well within the realm of possibility. So, yeah, there's a lot to like here, and catcher prospects are hard. You know, Kirk's had a lot of up and downs. Jansen's been disappointing.
Starting point is 00:05:44 You think about some of the other high-end catching prospects in recent years. Joey Bart has been a total flop. Just got sent down today, actually. I know it's only been a month, but just throw Adley-Rutchman in that mix, I guess. Carson Kelly. You know, these are guys, Luis Campasano. These are guys who have been really highly touted, and often it takes a couple of years for them to figure it out.
Starting point is 00:06:06 So there's a chance, maybe a very good chance. The Gabriel Moreno doesn't hit right away and get sent down. But unless you've got one of, what, five catchers, Perez, Contreras, Raimuto, Smith, Varshot, you can probably find a spot for him on your roster just in case. Yeah, I don't think that he's a must add in a one-catcher league, definitely in two catcher leagues. but I mean if you have a dead roster spot and you just want to take a chance on him and if he does well then maybe you could flip him
Starting point is 00:06:37 to another team. Last point on the playing time let's say they have six games in a week. I think they'll find a way to get Moreno in the lineup four times out of six games. Like they'll either catch two or three games and then he'll DH the other couple and Alejandro Kirk obviously is no stranger to playing DH as well
Starting point is 00:06:56 and they need Kirk's bat in the lineup because he's been amazing as of late. All right, let's get into some of Wednesdays action. Oh my goodness gracious. All right, Chris. Where would you like to start? Uh, how about the guy who is this the second time the Sandy Alcantra has thrown nine innings and not gotten a win? I know that there was another start where he did it at least eight innings. I think he threw an eight inning complete game and a loss. I think that's what it was. Yeah. So the hardest luck pitcher in baseball Sandy Alcantara, nine shutout innings, six strikeout, six hits allowed, lowers his
Starting point is 00:07:33 CRA to an MLB best 161. And he's got, well, I mean, he's had six wins. I actually thought that number was lower, but he didn't get a win tonight. The Marlins did end up winning. Look up the slow motion highlight of Williams-Astadillo's game-winning run because it's phenomenal. He's just an absolute gem. But yeah, Sandy is phenomenal.
Starting point is 00:07:57 I mean, what can you say? He had 17 whiffs today. The whiffs have been way up late. It's been more like that more like that second half that he had and it's been I mean really consistently every start It's been like like today five with the change up five with the slider three with the sinker four with the four seam fastball He's just every pitch seems to be working for him right now and yeah he doesn't get the strikeouts in the whiffs that you want from an ace but Everything else and the strikeouts are still pretty good so yeah Sandy Alconi
Starting point is 00:08:33 is one of the best pitchers in baseball. You know, there's no, no if, Sands or butts about it. I have him ninth. He's right behind Walker Bueller. And it, you wouldn't have to twist my arm much to get me to move him ahead of Walker Bueller with the way Bueller's pitch this season. Yeah, I moved Sandy up to,
Starting point is 00:08:52 wait, Sandy. I moved Sandy. Up to SP6 in the rankings. So the only five ahead of him, Corbyn Burns, Garrett Cole, Verlander, Kevin Gosman and Zach Wheeler. So lots of confidence right now in Sandy Alcantra. And I did want to pull up the strikeout leaderboard in Major League Baseball. This was a wild, while you're doing that, this is a wild stat that I saw.
Starting point is 00:09:15 It's three pitchers in the last, I think it's 25 years, who have had five starts of seven or more innings, zero or one earned runs. It's Clinton Kirchall three times, which is amazing. And then Jake Arenda and Sandy Alcantra now. Um, geez. It's pretty remarkable. He's thrown 210 innings with 204 strikeouts over his last, over the last calendar year. So, you know,
Starting point is 00:09:41 that's basically a full season. That's pretty awesome. Yeah. And Scott made this argument. He actually made it for Adam Wainwright in the preseason. And he said, while Wainwright's strikeout rate is not great, the volume that he gives you innings will allow him to rank higher on the
Starting point is 00:09:58 strikeout list than you would imagine. And that is the same. exact thing for Sandy, his 77 strikeouts are tied for seventh most in major league baseball. So while he doesn't have this gaudy K per nine, the swinging strike rate is actually better than you would imagine. He's going to rank highly in strikeouts because he gives you so much volume. What I've noticed, Chris... He's averaging almost seven innings per start right now, 6.97 innings per start. He's, he's an outlier. And, you know, he's a guy who's thrown 197 and 205 innings in his career before. So he's a true, he had to be a true, he had
Starting point is 00:10:31 200 strikeouts last season. Yep. I think he's the odds on favor to lead major league baseball in innings pitched and I mean, that's pretty obvious because I'm pretty sure he's up to 83 right now. Yeah, I'm pretty sure he already does. Yeah, like it's he's got 83 and then Aaronola has 74. Last point on Sandy Alcantara, his first seven starts, he averaged four walks per nine. He has just five walks total over his last five starts. So that is just so key for him. When he could keep those walks down, it seems obvious. But that allows him to go. even deeper into these starts and provide that volume. He's amazing. He's a top, you know, 7, 8, 9, whatever you want to call him, starting
Starting point is 00:11:09 pitcher moving forward. Oh my goodness gracious for me, Chris, is Bryson Stott. And we were talking beforehand. There is no shortage of interesting middle infielers right now. We spoke about Luis Garcia and Ezekiel Duran the past couple of days. Bryson Stott just goes out there and has a 4-4-game on Wednesday, hit his third home run, all three of those coming over his last five games. He's only 21% rostered. Obviously comes with a decent amount of prospect pedigree, and he's going to play.
Starting point is 00:11:37 He's been playing second base for them. He's got second shortstop eligibility. Gene Cigura's on the shelf. So there's no concerns about playing time, and he's actually performing now. So, Chris, what do you think about Bryson Stott? And where does he rank among those three interesting middle infielders? I see said, Ezekiel, Duran, Louise Garcia. Yep.
Starting point is 00:11:57 He's behind all those guys. but that's not necessarily a significant knock on him. You know, he's done nothing but hit at, you know, in the minors, 915 OPS and AAA-48 at AA. And he seems like he's starting to figure things out. So, yeah, I think he's an interesting, probably not a 12-team points league guy, but anything deeper than that, I think is worth the look. All right, and since being recalled,
Starting point is 00:12:29 I try to see what he might be doing differently. He's not really hitting the ball all that hard. Is he putting it in the air? Yeah, he's hitting a lot of fly balls. Wow. So over the past week or so, he's got a 53% fly ball rate. So, yeah, that's going to lend itself to, especially in Citizens Bank.
Starting point is 00:12:48 That's going to help with the power, but maybe a little bit of a lower batting average there, even though, I mean, I would say Stott's best tool is probably his hit tool, and that's what he was known for most. Yeah, he's striking out too much in the majors so far. You know, coming into tonight, it was 29%. This 4-for-4 game helped, but he's not someone who can strike out a lot and be successful, I think.
Starting point is 00:13:08 He's probably going to be someone who needs to be at least average in terms of his strikeout rate in order to have success. But, you know, the stretch we're seeing from him right now and the potential that he has shown in the miners is, you know, definitely worth a look. Yeah, I updated the rankings on Wednesday, and I have Stott ranked behind both of those middle infielders as well. But it is close. And I think it almost kind of depends what you need, right? Like Duran maybe for a little bit of speed. I think Luis Garcia maybe a little bit more pop. Stott for the batting average.
Starting point is 00:13:39 But I think they're all interesting and definitely worth adding in some of those deeper leagues with middle infielders. Speaking of those Phillies, by the way, they put up big game here in Milwaukee. 10 runs on 14 hits. Stott was not the only one who went off. Bryce Harbor hit his 14th home run. Kyle Schwabber went four for five with two doubles, two runs, two RBI. there. And then Reese Hoskins went one for five with his ninth homer. He's batting 220. And Chris, I realized we haven't really talked about Reese Hoskins at all this season.
Starting point is 00:14:08 I remember looking earlier in the year and seeing that his expected numbers were pretty interesting. But looking at them now, 243XBA, 457, expected slug. He's only got nine homers. He's been kind of a letdown. And I'll say that as someone who was pretty excited about Reese Hoskins myself. Yeah, but a lot of the underlying, underlying numbers, you know, look very similar last season. His line drive rate is pretty much the same. His fly ball rates down a little bit.
Starting point is 00:14:39 His pull rate is up a little bit. And his strikeout rates up a little bit. So it does seem like he's just kind of been a little bit worse across the board. And that has added up to, you know, a pretty significant decline in his actual production. But I haven't felt compelled to move him down. You know, I've done, when I've updated my first base rankings, I still have him ahead of Josh Bell and Joey Votto. I could flip those guys in any order,
Starting point is 00:15:08 and I think it would make sense. And so I think he's still a number one first baseman moving forward. Yeah, I have him just at the back end of my top 12. And, all right. Yeah, I think that makes sense. He is, yeah, the fly ball rate is down this year, so that's obviously going to lead to less volume in terms of power. so far for Reese Hoskins.
Starting point is 00:15:31 And yeah, his home run to fly ball ratio is down a little bit. You know, his average edge velocity is down a little bit. But I would imagine he will start to put the ball in the air more. And as the weather heats up, especially in Philadelphia, you know, would not surprise me if he just goes on one of those binges. And next thing you know, like, he ends the season with 30 home runs. That is Reese Hoskins that we're talking about. And the Phillies were not the only NLEs team to go off on.
Starting point is 00:15:58 Wednesday the Braves put up 13 runs on 13 hits themselves, including four homers. One from Alson Riley, his 15th. William Contreras hit his eighth homer. Ozzie Albies hit his seventh. Adam Duval hit his fourth homer. Matt Olson went two for four. He hit his 24th double, Chris. That leads Major League Baseball.
Starting point is 00:16:17 I just thought that was so weird. I guess I would imagine those doubles will turn into home runs eventually for Matt Olson. That's what we've talked about recently with him. But just not someone I would expect to lead. baseball in doubles is you would you would think those will turn into um home runs i guess the you know there there were some weird things going on when like you looked at the expected home runs by park atlanta has a reputation as being a pretty good park for left-handed power but you know his numbers were lower there than his actual home run production so it could be a
Starting point is 00:16:54 a case of the park not doing him many favors, but I think he's fine. You know, we mentioned him the other day, and I think he's going to be just fine. All right. Michael Harris, by the way, the young Braves prospect who was called up recently, went two for four with two RBI and two runs in that game. He's batting 268 early on. Lots of ground balls. I think it was something like a 57% ground ball rate. So we've got to get that down if we're going to, you know, expect any level of batting average or even power out of Michael Harris. He's 46% rostered. Probably should take a shot on him in five outfieler leagues.
Starting point is 00:17:32 Let's move over to some waiver wire hitters. And in shallower leagues, two names that stood out on Wednesday. Andres Jimenez, two more doubles. He is betting 310 with an 885 OPS. He's got seven home runs, four steals. He's 73% rostered. And Christian Walker, I keep waiting for this number to climb higher. Chris. I know he's batting 201, but he's got 15 home runs. He's top five in baseball and home runs right now. It just, it feels like someone needs Christian Walker on their fantasy team and that he should be universally rostered. But he is 71% rostered. Anders Hemenas, 73. I guess the only leagues they would be available in are like 10 team leagues or points leagues. Do you think those guys need to be rostered there?
Starting point is 00:18:16 him and as i hadn't really given his underlying numbers enough of a look i guess because he's i'm kind of surprised at how well he rates out here and then it could be just a a result of this recent hot streak but his expected woba is 364 his actual oba's 375 so that's really quite good he's doing it by being incredibly aggressive only a 3.3% walk rate but he's manage to, you know, have an average strikeout rate, which is, you know, you'd probably want more. But if, you know, the way he's hitting the ball, you know, 61st percent on average, exit velocity, 55th and hard hit rate, 59th and max exeux ofilo, you know, that's all above average. And if he can be an average or slightly above average strikeout rate guy, then it's,
Starting point is 00:19:14 It starts to be kind of intriguing. I mean, it's been intriguing, I guess. But yeah, it's, he's been a lot better than I gave him credit for. I need to move Andres Jimenez up quite a bit in the rankings. I'm not sure how much I buy it. You know, it's definitely an outlier for his major league career. We've never really seen this kind of quality of contact from him. 2020, he was sixth percentile in barrel rate,
Starting point is 00:19:41 20th percentile on average exit velocity. so, you know, pretty bad. But he's 23. He's a former top prospect. And, yeah, we could be witnessing a breakout here. There's one name that stands out to me that is just way too rostered right now. And that is Ryan McMahon. He's 94% rostered.
Starting point is 00:20:01 Like, if you have Ryan McMahon on your team, I would drop him for Andres Jimenez. Is that a fair to say? I would drop him for Luis Garcia. I would drop him for Ezekiel Duran. That that is actually a pretty easy call for me. All right. The other one there, Christian Walker, Chris, anything you'd like to add on him? I moved him way up. I think he's like 16th in my first base rankings now. Yeah, we're going to talk about him a little later, and he was definitely a riser for me. He's up to 14th for me. And I just, I don't 100% buy it. It's kind of a reflection of how little faith I have in, I don't know, whatever, fourth tier first baseman that are in that range.
Starting point is 00:20:41 Anthony Rizzo, Yuli Gereal, that kind of crew. But yeah, the underlying numbers for Christian Walker are uniformly excellent. You know, he's got a 326 Woba, a 403 expected Woba. Now we know because of the ball, you can't take expected Woba and just translate it immediately. But yeah, he's showing improvements in his strikeout rate and his plate discipline. Contact rate is up. He's been more patient. 66% zone swing rate versus 81% for his career, but he's making more contact when he does.
Starting point is 00:21:17 So I don't know. This is, um, this does look like the best version of Christian Walker we've seen. And remember, he had a 29 homer season and back in 2019. Yeah, he is putting the ball in the air a lot right now and he's hitting it with authority. His expected numbers are just fantastic. That is Christian Walker that we're talking about, looking for some names that are rostered more leagues than him. Eric Hosmer, easy call, drop him for Walker.
Starting point is 00:21:44 Is Torkelson still more rostered than him? I don't think so. Okay. No, Torkelson is 65%. Connor Joe, look, as much as I love Connor Joe, you know, we got the Kokomo Friday song and everything. I would make that swap. I would drop Connor Joe for Christian Walker.
Starting point is 00:22:01 Yeah, that one's a little harder just because Connor Joe is outfield eligible. And so that's true. Outfield's kind of a mess and he's still like a top 40 guy for me there. But yeah, I would I would say Christian Walker deserves to be more rostered than he is. All right, a couple other names here, Chris, that stood out, Waverwire hitters from Wednesday.
Starting point is 00:22:22 Josh Rojas went two for four with a triple and his fourth home run. He's batting 286 and he has four eligibility. Second base, third base, shortstop, and outfield. Manny Margot went four for five with a walk and two runs scored. He's 59% rostered. Ramon Moriano has a 12-game hitting streak
Starting point is 00:22:40 going on right now. He's hot and has the potential to steal some bases. He's 43% rostered. And Jose Miranda, he went three for four with a double and three RBI. His last 12 games entering Wednesday, 13 for 37 with three home runs. Anyone that stands out to you there, Chris, Rojas, Margo, Luriano, Jose Miranda. I think Margot is completely smoking mirrors. He had that stretch where he had three home runs and three games. He hadn't done anything since then. I would probably rather have Laureano than him. I definitely would rather have Laureano than him. I would rather have Rojas than him if I'm looking for an outfielder.
Starting point is 00:23:20 And yeah, I think I would rather have Miranda than him. Miranda, you know, hit 340 with 30 home runs in the minors last season. I don't think he's that guy in the majors, but he's been really good the last couple of weeks after really struggling early on. And that could just have been him getting acclimated to the majors. So I definitely think Jose Moran, and especially is someone who deserves to be rostered more.
Starting point is 00:23:43 The only thing I'll point out with Manny Margoe is he is hitting a ton of line drives according to Fangraphs. And I'm not sure how sticky that is or just because you've done it to start the season. Is it something that's going to maintain for the rest of the season? But as a result, his expected batting average was 312 entering Wednesday. So there is something there. But since he returned from the IL, Manny Margoe really was not doing much. So I just wanted to point that out with him.
Starting point is 00:24:11 Some names in deeper leagues, just let's watch them. See what happens here. Kevin Bizio in 10 games since returning. He's betting 308 with three doubles, six RBI, and he's hitting the ball hard. It's something Kevin Bizio, even at his best, he would put the ball in the air a lot, but not hit it hard. He has a 91 mile per hour average exit velocity in 10 games since returning. So that's worth noting. And then my guy, Cal Rale, if you need a second.
Starting point is 00:24:38 catcher and you missed out on Gabriel Moreno. He went one for four with his seventh home run. He's got three homers over his last six games. Beat the waiver wire, two-start pitcher edition, and we'll start with three names that you could target in shallow leagues. Alex Wood, he did not have a six-ennings start entering Wednesday, and he did do one better. He went seven innings against the Rockies, gave up one run.
Starting point is 00:24:59 He had five strikeouts. He's 71% roster. I know a lot of people are dropping him and rightfully so. You're going to want to pick him back up because his matchups next week, the Royals and the Pirates. It's awesome for Alex Wood. The other names... This one really chaps my bum, as they say.
Starting point is 00:25:16 Because I started Alex Cobb over Alex Wood in Tout Wars. And then Cobb got... Because Cobb had a good matchup. I think he might have had two starts this week, scheduled. And they were good matchups. And then he got scratched. So that one really hurts. The other name's Josiah Gray, now two solid starts.
Starting point is 00:25:38 in a row and how is he doing it? He's lowered his four-seem fastball usage, throwing his slider and his curve more, which is smart. When you have a bad pitch, you should throw that pitch less. Yeah, it's tough when that bad pitch is a fastball and you don't have great command. Sure.
Starting point is 00:25:55 Because you've got to throw strikes. And it's harder to throw curveballs and sliders and change-ups for strikes. But his slider and curveball are so much better than his fastball. His fastball, he throws it pretty hard, But it's at least so far in his major league career, it's gotten hit really hard. He's one of those, Tristan McKenzie's a very similar pitcher. And, you know, that slider and curveball usage being up,
Starting point is 00:26:19 and especially that fastball usage being down to 33% today, I think that's a good sign. Obviously, the caveat being it's the Marlins, but very impressive from him. Entering this start, he had a 645 slugging percentage against his fastball and has allowed 11 home runs. And that's lucky, according to the expected stats, because he had a 748 expected slugging percentage.
Starting point is 00:26:45 It's a bad pitch. Yikes. Merrill Kelly is the other name here. He posted his first quality start since May 6th, and he was at the Reds, where he went six shutout and had five strikeouts with a season high, 17 swinging strikes. He was actually lucky to throw six shutout innings because Alec Thomas robbed our guy, Joey VIII.
Starting point is 00:27:04 Votto of a two-run homer early in that game. Chris, how would you rank these three? Just looking at two-star pitchers for next week. Alex Wood, Josiah Gray, and Merrill Kelly. Yeah, worth noting, Votto only had one hit today, but he had three hard hit balls. He's super locked in and could have easily had a home run. You know what else happened to Chris recently?
Starting point is 00:27:23 He was in Fenway last week, and he hit two doubles that were over 375 feet, and someone else pointed out to me that Juan Soto robbed a home run over the weekend. So as good as Votto has been since he returned, the numbers should look actually way better than they are. He's hitting the ball incredibly hard. Yeah, three, three batten balls over 95 miles per hour, two over 103 miles per hour today. That's very good. What was the question? Sorry. How do you rank these three? Josiah Gray, Alex Wood, and Merrill Kelly for next week. I would think it's Kelly Gray would. But, you know, gray is someone who can rise very, very quickly.
Starting point is 00:28:04 in my estimation and, you know, also probably benefits from good matchups when he has them. So, yeah. I have basically written Merrill Kelly completely off, Chris. I lowered him to SP 98. I didn't even realize I dropped them that far, but I actually think I would go Wood, Gray, and Merrill Kelly in that order. Just, I guess, based on what we saw so far on Wednesday. Would you be willing to drop these pitchers, Chris?
Starting point is 00:28:32 You say Kikuchi, he gave up three runs on four, walks does not escape the first inning. It looks like he's in line for two starts next week against the Orioles and the Yankees. But I don't know who is brave enough to play you say Kikuchi. That might be my fortune favors the brave two star pitcher for next week.
Starting point is 00:28:48 And then Jose Arkiti is another one where he is now got an ERA up over five with a 1.59 whip. Are you okay dropping both of those? Kikuchi and Jose Orkiti. Yeah, I'm fine with that. Kikuchi, we've seen just there are flashes, but he's,
Starting point is 00:29:04 He's just not consistent at all. Actually, I guess more often than not, he's consistently bad. So I think it's fine to drop him in Arcadia. The quality of contact metrics this season have been horrendous. He has a 467 expected Wobon contact right now. That is basically every hitter turns into Juan Soto against him, I guess. Not necessarily because of the walks, but whatever. It's fine.
Starting point is 00:29:31 You get the picture. He's giving up a lot of loud content. attack. Yeah, I think Arquidi is totally fine to drop. All right, well, you know, you were describing Kukuchi and how consistently bad he is, and it reminded me of another pitcher in deeper leagues.
Starting point is 00:29:46 Mitch Keller. He's, just when you think you're out, he pulls you back in. Classic tease by Mitch Keller up against the Tigers. He gives up one run over six innings, had seven strikeouts. Completely changed his pitch mix in this start. 44% sinker in this one. That was just
Starting point is 00:30:02 7% entering the start. He threw his slider more basically got rid of his four seam, which is a bad pitch. It's actually his worst pitch. So again, it makes sense there. So these are some names in deeply, Chris. Johnny Quato has now gone six innings in all five of his starts. He's in line for two starts next week. Alex Fayetteau has allowed two earn runs or fewer in all seven of his starts. He's got two starts six week. As does Mitch Keller. What do you think about those three? Quato, Fayato and Keller. Fiatto is the only one I'm really interested in it. And I'm not that interested in him.
Starting point is 00:30:36 I know Scott likes him a lot more than I do. It was nice to see a lot of swinging strikes in this one, especially with the slider. What do you have 11 of them in this start with the slider? 10. 10 on the slider, yep. 10 of them, yeah. No, I love. That's good.
Starting point is 00:30:51 Nine on the slider. I think you can probably chalk that up to a matchup against the pirates and not something that I would necessarily expect to remain the case moving forward. But like White Sox and Texas next week, Those are okay-ish matchups. So I think he could be useful. Keller, no, I'm not going to fall for it. Maybe this pitch mix, you know, throwing sinkers more, throwing sliders more.
Starting point is 00:31:19 Maybe that'll help. But I just, we've seen enough from him, I think, to know that even though he's throwing harder this season, there's no reason to think he's going to be a good pitcher. Let's take a break. And when we return, we'll hit the news and notes here on Fantasy Base. baseball today. The news and notes. Mike Trout was out Wednesday with left groin tightness, but is expected to avoid the IL. Let's hope so. Starling Marte hopes to avoid the IL himself after leaving Tuesday's game with left quad tightness. He was out of the lineup Wednesday.
Starting point is 00:31:51 You know, Chris, it's so weird. I don't know if it's just bad luck, but Trout and Marte specifically, there are two players that it seems like no matter what happens, they have to have an IL stint at least once per season. We're just kind of hitting that point for both of them, I guess. Yeah, I mean, Marte, he's 33, so it's not terribly surprising there, I guess. But yeah, hopefully this isn't anything to be concerned about. He's been a disappointment so far, but, you know. Starling Martin?
Starting point is 00:32:19 Yeah. I think he's been pretty good, actually, no? He's having his worst season as a hitter in quite a while. I guess if you adjust for era or offensive environment, he's been better than 2020, but only eight steals. He's been caught stealing five times. I guess we might think of him differently if the caught stealing rate was a little lower.
Starting point is 00:32:42 And, you know, the sprint speed is still mostly there. It's pretty comparable to last year at least. Yeah. Now you're right. That is disappointing. 7.57. I haven't moved him down. He's still a top 15 outfielder.
Starting point is 00:32:57 The county stats are still great. 36 runs, 33 RBI. He's got seven homers. But yeah, only on. pace for like 25 steals, which is a good amount, but you probably wanted more out of Stalling Marte. Pete Alonzo was not in the lineup after getting hit by a pitch on his right hand on Tuesday. Chris Bryant has yet to resume swinging a bat and remains without a timetable. He is on the aisle with a lower back train. Yeah, someone offered me a give up Craig Kimbril
Starting point is 00:33:23 to get Chris Bryant trade and I want to. That's how I have it ranked in the trade chart, but I can't. I couldn't pull the turk. on it, so I have to rethink where I've got those guys, I guess. I hate talking in such like black and white terms, and I do this often, I realize like it's a flaw of mine, but I just
Starting point is 00:33:46 kind of... But I'm going to do it anyway. I just kind of feel like it's just going to be a loss season for Chris Bryant. It kind of feels like that. Yeah, I mean that's not totally unfair. Back injuries are scary when you're talking about a player in his 30s, but I don't want to give up
Starting point is 00:34:02 hope yet. So, We'll see. Fair enough. Jack Flaherty will make his second rehab start Friday at AAA. Shane Boz will make his season debut Saturday in Minnesota against the twins. Both Carlos Correa and Willie Adamas made their returns to their respective teams on Wednesday. Joe Ryan will report to AAA for a rehab start on Thursday. Nolan Aronado was out of the lineup due to knee sorenness after getting hit by a pitch on Tuesday.
Starting point is 00:34:30 Sayas Suzuki could be ready to return from the aisle this weekend. He took batting practice earlier in the week. Dave Roberts said there's a good possibility that Wednesday is the last day of Max Muncie's rehab assignment. I think he hit a walk-off home run on Tuesday. I saw a video somewhere, so that happened. Hopefully we could see some power because really hasn't been much of that for Max Muncie this year.
Starting point is 00:34:53 Dylan Carlson expected to return to the Cardinals lineup on Friday. Enrique Hernandez was placed on the aisle with a right hip flexor strain, and I wonder if that means. we'll see Jaron Duran back in the majors He wasn't
Starting point is 00:35:06 recalled immediately. I think it was Jonathan Arauz. Yeah, but I did see one of the Red Sox reporters
Starting point is 00:35:14 I can't remember which one suggested, you know, it's possible he could be called up for the weekend series. So hopefully,
Starting point is 00:35:21 I still want to see him get a chance, man. I still, I still believe there's a very good fantasy player in Jaron
Starting point is 00:35:29 and it's, it's a little frustrating that we have haven't really seen him get an opportunity to do it in the majors because once again, he's crushing the ball at AAA. He's played 97 games at AAA overall between what the last two seasons. He's hitting 280 with an 890 OPS, 20 homers 27 steals. Like I just want to see the guy get a chance. Yeah. I, you know, they know him better than I do and there's something holding the Red
Starting point is 00:35:57 Sox back from believing in him seemingly. But I just, I really want to. see him get a chance. Yeah, it feels like they're kind of slow rolling him right now. I think maybe they rushed him last year and it kind of crushed his confidence a little bit. And I think they're really letting that build up. And last year was weird because there was the whole Olympics thing and yeah, so I don't know. Yeah, but you're right. He's he's absolutely crushing it. And even if it's not, you know, it could happen later this year. But if not, I think, you know, by the start of next year, I think Jared Duran will have an everyday job. And he's someone I would add in in all category based leagues if he gets the call.
Starting point is 00:36:34 Like for good. Yep. Brandon Jury was scratched Wednesday with an Achilles issue. Jun Riu is expected to miss significant time with that forearm slash elbow injury. And I know the Blue Jays keep saying that Nate Pearson will return as a reliever, but maybe this changes
Starting point is 00:36:50 their decision. I don't know. Joey Bart was optioned back to AAA. He was batting 156 with four home runs and a bunch of strikeouts. Aaron Savali will begin a rehab assignment at AAA on Thursday. I have heard this name in a while, but Kentomayeta hopes to resume mound work in two to three weeks. He had Tommy John surgery September 1st of last year, so I doubt we see him this season.
Starting point is 00:37:14 He said he wants to return in September, but I don't know. It would be pretty surprising, but 11 months isn't necessarily like out of the question. It was just be, you know, on the early side. Chris, I'm not sure if you saw this, but each Angels hitter walked up to a nickelback song on Wednesday to try and break the losing streak. Well, turns out it didn't work because they lost one zip. They now have lost 14 straight games. And Chris, obviously you're the music buff
Starting point is 00:37:41 here on the podcast. There's no, you know, there's no denying that. If you had to walk out to a nickel back song, which one would it be? I want to credit the person I saw because this tweet made me laugh very hard, but it was Marcus Grant from NFL.com's fantasy team.
Starting point is 00:38:00 tweeted, Nickelback will continue until morale improves, was the response. Phenomenal. I don't know if this counts, but the song Hero is technically a Chad Kroger tune from the Spider-Man-1 soundtrack, but at least one other member of Nickelback appears on it. So I'm going to count that one, and that is a song that I actually like. Wait, what? I like that song. I don't know if it's a good song.
Starting point is 00:38:33 I'm going to delete that from the podcast. It might just be nostalgia. But I like that song. All right. Let's move on. Rankies movers. And before we get into the risers and followers, Chris, I don't want to spend too much time on this,
Starting point is 00:38:46 but I think it's just worth reminding everybody, listeners, viewers, are kind of process with ranking players rest of season because it's not an easy task to do. I fully admit that it's tough, weighing what a player has done this season, especially when a player is doing something which is an outlier for them, a la Martine Perez, which, look, a lot of people are coming for you, Chris, Martin Perez, you've got to give this guy some credit.
Starting point is 00:39:13 But we're trying to do something that is not easy to do and project what's going to happen rest of season. So I think you probably are the most rigid in sticking to the process and trusting the underlying numbers. but what else goes into ranking players rest of season for you? This is actually, I got a really interesting Twitter question about this as well today. So it's good timing. Someone asked me, you know, do you rank based on what you project each player to finish,
Starting point is 00:39:43 like the order that you project them to finish in moving forward? Or do you rank them in the order of your preference? And those are different things because, for instance, I might think, think like it is likelier that Christian Vasquez is just better than Gabriel Moreno the rest of the season right like correct that is Christian Christian Vasquez is a an established major leagher who finishes as like the sixth to 15th best catcher in fantasy pretty much every season but I would rather have Gabriel Moreno because it's not just about what the likeliest outcome is it's
Starting point is 00:40:20 about weighing upside and potential and and so you know that there's there's a lot that goes into it. It's a combination of preference and how I think they'll play the rest of the season and what the most likely outcome is and weighing upside versus downside and all those things go into it. And there is also just, I believe that a longer track record tells you more about a player's talent level than whatever smaller sample size you want to go with, the most, the last 21 days, the last two months, this season.
Starting point is 00:40:56 first half last year's first like whatever whatever small like larger sample size are are going to be more predictive on the whole there are outliers and there are play you know exceptions to that obviously and so you try to identify those and it's all to say that ranking is really really hard and just giving an ordinal list of here are 80 starting pitchers or 120 whatever we we uh show on the site i think is 120. 125. Yeah. That's really difficult
Starting point is 00:41:27 because it also depends on your team. There might be one team build where I would rather have Martin Perez than like let's say Hunter Green. I have Hunter Green ranked very closely to Martin Perez, but it could be a points league versus Rodo kind of thing.
Starting point is 00:41:46 In a points league, I think Martin Perez probably going to give you more volume. He's going to go consistently into his starts more. But if you play in a Categories league and you need strikeouts, then Hunter Green is probably the answer. Yeah. Yeah, that's a good way to put it. And then there's lots of different ways that go into it. And it depends on where you are and you're, you know, if you need immediate help, you might want the guy who's hot right now.
Starting point is 00:42:06 And so all of it's to say is that I just don't think Martine Perez is very good. And that's why he's my number 81 starting pitcher. Fair enough. But I did move him up a lot. He would technically be one of the biggest risers. I let's see where I wound up putting it. I have Martine Perez at SPC. 61 in points of
Starting point is 00:42:24 That's too rich from my blood. He's just ahead of Jordan Montgomery Hunter Green who I just mentioned Patrick Sandoval which I think all of those are debatable but yeah I mean those other players have their red flags as well. For me Chris
Starting point is 00:42:39 I start off looking at each position I look at what they've done so far this season so fantasy points per game and I'll also look at their roto ranking and then I'll look at the last 21 days just to see like okay who's hot or cold or whatever, heating up. And then I'll also have open
Starting point is 00:42:55 the baseball savant page, which is where we get all of our stat cast data for each position. So if I'm doing catchers, then I'll just look at like expected Wobah and just like the entire list and just see like who is hitting the ball best at the position.
Starting point is 00:43:08 I'll do that for each position every time I rank the players. And for starting pitchers, I only have up two leaderboards. It's swinging strike rate and it's K minus walk rate. And those are the things that I look at most.
Starting point is 00:43:19 I don't know if that's to right answer, but it feels like those are the things that are most indicative of a good starting pitcher. I also look at projection systems. You know, that's something that I was, I've really been struggling with outfield. I've always said ranking relief pitchers is the worst part of this job,
Starting point is 00:43:33 but this season, it might actually be just ranking outfielders because there's like 18 of them that are good. Yeah. And everyone else has just either been good so far, but I don't buy it at all, or just terrible, but I think they're good. And so I was looking at,
Starting point is 00:43:52 rest of season projections today and comparing them to my rankings and seeing you know is there anyone that I and for the most part it made me feel a little better about still keeping the faith in Randy a Roserana to a certain extent and Kyle Schwarber and and Brian Reynolds and guys like that who just haven't been performing but I think will be fine so it's honestly creating ordinal rankings is my least favorite part of the job I just I don't enjoy it. It's something you have to do. It's utilitarian. It helps people, but it's just, it's not the way things actually work. You know, Julio Rodriguez is number 18 and Gerla Stanton is number 19 and J.D. Martinez is number 20. And that is how I think they will be the rest of the season. And it's not really that. It's like, Julio Rodriguez has this massive error bar where he could finish anywhere from 5th to 70th. And, you know, Jani Martinez probably has a much narrower one. But he probably doesn't have as much upside. And so,
Starting point is 00:44:52 Right. It, all in all, it's just, it's a difficult process that doesn't necessarily reflect how you actually play fantasy baseball, but I know that it is also like you do have to pick between two players. And so that's all to say that rankings are as much an art as a science. And please don't yell at us if we have one player higher than another. Yeah, look, we're all different too. So I think that we should have differences in a rankings.
Starting point is 00:45:19 It makes sense. Let's quickly run through some of our risers. followers, Chris, some risers for you, Wilson Contreras, Christian Walker, Brendan Rogers, Luis Garcia, the shortstop, Luis Severino, and David Bednar. Who would you like to highlight from this group? Yeah, Contreras. I moved him up to my number two catcher, and I'd been kind of hesitant to do that. And I do kind of feel like maybe this will be the point when his season turns around. He stopped hitting the ball so well. But man, he has looked like an elite hitter so far. And I don't think he's going to be an elite hitter moving forward, but his expected Wobos 427. That is way higher than we've
Starting point is 00:45:55 ever seen it. He's making a bunch of contact. He's cut his strikeout right down to 20%. His expected Wobon contact is also way better than we've ever seen. So he's doing everything right now. And I just at some point you can't ignore it. Look, like he's 30 and I think he's probably a pretty established talent, but I don't know, maybe this is just one of those years. And, And so yeah, that's that. And then Luis Garcia, I talked about my belief in him and then the skill set and how excited I am about him on yesterday's podcast.
Starting point is 00:46:28 So you can tune in for that. But I think there's a lot to like about him as an improving player. And David Benar has just been awesome. Yes, he is. And there's no real controversy about who the closer is. Like we thought there might be going into the season. He's just been one of the best reliever. in baseball.
Starting point is 00:46:50 And I'm buying in. He's RP 13 for me, I believe. Yeah, that makes sense. I think he's under team control for three or four years, something like that. So they're not going to move David Benner. I don't think they are.
Starting point is 00:47:05 And that means he will remain as the closer. Wilson Contreras, he is playing, obviously, the Universal DH has helped him a ton this year. In 13 games as the DH for the Cubs, he's hitting 347 with an OPS over 1100. He's also in a contract year. So I think those two things combined have been awesome for William Contreras.
Starting point is 00:47:26 Wilson Contreras. Wilson Contreras, but although William Contreras has been great too. Some risers for me, Alex Kirolov, he's back into relevance at first base and outfield in the rankings for me. In the minors right now, he's hitting 337 with six homers and an OPS over a thousand. I think Alex Kiroloff is coming very soon. So if you want to take a shot and pick him back up, I have no problem with it. Bobby Witt, I moved him up to my sixth ranked third baseman. In Rota, right?
Starting point is 00:47:54 And head set points. I moved him ahead of Alex Bregman as well, and it's more so just a reflection of how bad the position is. But since April 21st, this is 43 games. He's betting 242, not great, but seven homers, seven steals. That's a 24-homer 24-steel pace. And he's 93rd percentile in max exit velocity, 100th percentile in sprint speed. Bobby Witt is a freak. And I think the batting average is going to get better as the season goes along.
Starting point is 00:48:22 And he's running and he's hitting home runs. So he is awesome. Harrison Bader, you might not realize this. I initially recoiled at that, but I've actually got him as RB. Sorry, I've been writing about football. Third baseman, six, a seven. So not far off. I still have Bragman ahead of him.
Starting point is 00:48:40 But yeah. Yeah. Bregman's been kind of bad. We got to talk about him soon. But Harrison Bader, you might not realize he is the 11th, ranked outfielder in Roto this season. He has 14 steals, which is tied for second. That's wild.
Starting point is 00:48:52 His strikeout rate is way down, and as a result, his batting average is pretty solid. Luis Severino, I moved up to my SP21. He is 11th in swinging strike rate, 18th in K-minus walk. And Terrick Scoobel, I have, I've just, I moved him way up. He's SP-34. He's got the eighth best K-minus walk rate, 2.33 ERA. Every successive start where he just continues to pitch well, Chris. I'm just buying in a little bit more, a little bit more.
Starting point is 00:49:19 And I just said, screw it. I'm with you. I saw, you know, Saris was talking about his stuff metric. Terrick Scoobel has been improving as the season has gone on. Yeah, I had a lot of doubts about him coming in. But, you know, I guess it's the kind of thing. He's had like nine different pitches in the majors. You know, he's just like tinkered so much.
Starting point is 00:49:42 And he seems to have really figured out a mixture that works for him. And Severino, I haven't moved, quite as high, but he's SP 25 for me. So yeah, I'm pretty much all back in. McKenzie Gore is one more that I moved up very high as well. SP 43. One that I think that we can include in the risers, and he probably deserves it, man.
Starting point is 00:50:01 Shane Bieber, like, I will admit, maybe we overreacted early on in the season, Chris. He has really gotten back on track, and he had his start cut short by Rain on Wednesday here, but he went four and a third shutout. He gave up three hits, six strikeouts, 11 swinging strikes on just 54 pitches And he threw the slider 54% in this start
Starting point is 00:50:22 That has been the biggest difference His fastball velocity is down We know that but he's throwing his slider a ton It's become basically his go-to pitch And he's still using that curveball a lot as well And all of a sudden Shane Bieber has a 2.91 ERA 3.20 X-FIP and a 14% swinging strike rate I kind of think he's just
Starting point is 00:50:42 Shane Bieber again I mean he's not Shane Bieber, Shane Bieber. He's not Sy Young Shane Bieber, which is like in the running for the best pitcher in baseball, but he's probably closer to a top 10 or 12 pitcher now again. Yeah, he's 15th for me, and I've held pretty steady around that range.
Starting point is 00:51:00 I think I did move him up just a little bit this time around, but yeah, he's held pretty steady in that range. You know, the guys behind him and or surrounding him are pretty interesting. Three ahead of him are Arias, hilarious, Lucas Giuliolyto, Max Fried. And the three directly behind him are Dylan C's Shane McClanhan, Joe Musgrove. And I think you could make a case that all three of the guys that are behind him should be ahead of him, even though Shane Bieber has been pretty good.
Starting point is 00:51:26 It's interesting. It's, you know, this is one of those scenarios where I do think, like, being steady helps. And, you know, it doesn't really matter if, like, you're not, you're probably not trading Shane Bieber for Shane McLean or whatever it is anyway. So, you know, we don't have to overreact. there. But yeah, I don't know. I definitely feel a lot better about Shane Bieber. All right. Some fallers in the rankings. We're not going to expand on these because there are some other things I want to get to. But Chris has finally moved Charlie Morton outside of his top 40 starting pitchers. So you're welcome for his upcoming hot streak. Hey, we could all use it, Chris. So let's go.
Starting point is 00:52:06 A roll is Chapman, Trevor Rogers, Carlos Rodon, and Javier Baez. And some followers for me, Yasmani Grandal dropped him down to my eighth ranked catcher. It could be lower. I would still be looking to buy personally.
Starting point is 00:52:19 Javier Baez looks completely lost. I've dropped him. Byron Buxton, of course I drop him and then he hits his first home run in a while on Wednesday.
Starting point is 00:52:28 But I just don't know if he's playing hurt or something, but the overall numbers are just suffering right now for Byron Buxton. Eric Lauer, I dropped him. The velocity and swinging strike rate
Starting point is 00:52:37 has been down. Blake Snell and Patrick Sandoval, a few other names there that have just been kind of trending down, so drop those as well. Some pitching leftovers from Wednesday. We'll start with the bad, Chris. Bassett, kind of, he's kind of going through it right now.
Starting point is 00:52:52 He was at the Padres, he gave up seven runs over three and a third innings pitched. He had a 583 Bavit against. Did not allow a hard hit. So I don't really know what to make of this. It seems kind of fluky that he was that bad. But over his last five starts, now he has a 7.62 ERA. And then Nesser Cortez.
Starting point is 00:53:12 is the other one. We knew eventually he was going to give up some runs and watching that game. It seemed like the twins hitters were actually just sitting on the cutter. Like that was the pitch that they were waiting on and they timed it up perfectly a few times. And he also missed his spots.
Starting point is 00:53:26 So he's kind of one of those pitchers that needs to hit his spots because he just doesn't have like incredible stuff. So is there anything, Chris, you'd like to add on Bassett and Nester Cortez? All of a sudden Bassett's numbers are 435 ERA, which is... Bad.
Starting point is 00:53:41 Yeah. pretty bad. I think he's still the mid-3 ZRA guy. He's always been. I think maybe we overreacted to a hot start. It's another reminder to not do that and to hold steady. Nestor Cortez, I'm assuming there's going to be a lot more regression coming. I know that's a me thing.
Starting point is 00:54:03 You know, I kind of not just between you and Scott and I, but among all fantasy analysts, I think there's a lot of more excitement about Nestor Cortez than I have. so I still think you should be trying to sell high. Yeah, look, he's just not going to pitch to a sub 2 ERA, right? So let's say he finishes a season with a, and even this would be generous,
Starting point is 00:54:21 he finishes a season with a 3.5 ERA total. That means from here on out, he's probably pitching to an ERA over four. So it's just something, these are things that you have to think about. And it's not that we don't think that he's a bad pitcher. It's just there will be regression. It's just natural regression.
Starting point is 00:54:36 I would take the under on four, but I would probably take the overrun. on 3-5. I think he'll be somewhere in between there. And that's still a useful player. I just, he's weird. And there's a, sometimes that can work, but it might also be a scenario where, you know, it can catch up to him. So that would be my assumption. Now the good pitchers from Wednesday. Ian Anderson bounces back with his third quality start. He was up against Oakland, six innings, two runs, five strikeouts. Tony Gonsland makes it five quality starts in a row. This one was at the White Sox, six innings, one run, five strikeouts. It seems like if you look at
Starting point is 00:55:16 Aranola's game log, one great start, one bad start, one great start, one bad start. It basically sums up Aranola. But he goes eight shutout with six strikeouts at Milwaukee. And then Sean Manaya turns in a quality start of seven innings, gives up two runs, only three strikeouts. And he used a sinker a ton in this start, 77%. Anything you'd like to add, Chris, on Mania, Nola, Gonsolin, and and Ian Anderson. I mean, Ian Anderson, God, we needed something to be optimistic about. So it was good to see this kind of start from him. He's someone who has steadily dropped in my rankings.
Starting point is 00:55:52 I think he's outside of the top 50 now and could very easily drop further than that. So it was good. Need to see more of it. I think Aaron Nola is just awesome and there are going to be inconsistencies, but overall I think he's just going to be great. and Gonselin is probably the biggest riser in my rankings this week,
Starting point is 00:56:15 mostly because I realized I had just overlooked him. And in Roto, I think he was like 80th. So I moved him up into like the 60 to 55 range, I think. And I mean, for his career, he's thrown 193 innings, 9.2K per 9, 251, ERA, 1035 whip. He's a little frustrating because he doesn't go in deep, into games and he gets, you know, kind of, can be inconsistent at times and inefficient,
Starting point is 00:56:44 but I think he's just good, yeah. I think he's not sub 2ERA good, but I think he's very good. Some hitting leftovers from Wednesday, Salvador Perez baby steps. His last five games, he's got seven hits, two homers, and seven RBI. Yordaun Alvarez, three more hits for him. I believe the batting average is now up over 300. Tyler O'Neill, his second game back, two hits, including his third home run of the season.
Starting point is 00:57:06 Randy Rosarena, three more hits, and now since May 1st, 34 games. He's betting 308 with six home runs and seven steals. That might be someone, Chris, where we get him inside of our top, you know, 20 or whatever it is, because a Rosarena kind of just looks good again. Yeah, I think his overall line is probably pretty close to what you can expect moving forward. 267, 747 OPS. The 30 steel pace is really nice. I don't know how sustainable that is,
Starting point is 00:57:39 but, you know, 2020 with a 260-ish batting average, that's a useful player. And he's still, yeah, he's as down as I've been on him, he's remained inside my top 30 outfielders. So, you know, I think he's solid. He, I noticed he led the league in caught stealing last year, and he currently is tied for the league lead, but they still just let him run.
Starting point is 00:58:05 So I think he just has the green. night regardless. The Dodgers hit some dingers. Trey Turner, Cody Bellinger, and Will Smith each hit their seventh home runs of the season. Jake Cronoworth had a pretty big game. I wanted to see what the final line was there for him.
Starting point is 00:58:20 Well, that's one that I finally moved way down in my ranking. So there you go. So he went three for four with a Homer, a double, five RBI, three runs scored. And even with this game, he's batting 226 with a 686 OPS.
Starting point is 00:58:36 That just tells you how bad Jake Carniworth has been this season. Jerkson ProFar, Undertaker.gift. He's actually been pretty good the past month. Last 26 games. He is 35 for 108. I was supposed to calculate that. I didn't do that. With two home runs and three steals,
Starting point is 00:58:53 he's let off every game since May 27th. That is Jerksson Profar. The call to the bullpen, some updates here for the Tigers. Gregory Soto picked up his 12th save. The Mariners, you know, I thought Paul Cee, starting to look like he's the guy. No, he pitched in the eighth inning with a three-run lead. He faced the four, five, and six in the Astros lineup.
Starting point is 00:59:15 Diego Castillo then struck out the side for his fourth save of the season. Two in a row for Castillo, right? I believe that's correct. Yeah, he's 8% rostered. So in deeper category leagues, Diego Castillo there. For the nationals, Tanner Rainey entered in the 10th inning with a one-run lead. He gave up two hits and two runs. He takes a blown save and a loss, of course, the glorious,
Starting point is 00:59:36 running of one Williams Asudia. For the Dodgers, Daniel Hudson gave up a hit, but struck out two for his fifth save. Craig Kimball is currently on the paternity list. The Red Sox won one zip against the Angels. How did they do it? They had a reliever named John Schreiber. Pitch, he recorded four outs across the eighth. He started the ninth, got one out there, then Matt Strom got the final two outs.
Starting point is 01:00:06 and he picked up his third save of the season. And Strom has been pretty good, so let's see where the Red Sox go from here. Shriver is like a submarine pitcher. So it could just be, you know, some kind of matchups thing with him. If I had to guess who will get the next save for the Red Sox, I think it will be Matt Strom once again. So in deeper leagues, I think he's a name there. Strom has been pretty interesting, yeah.
Starting point is 01:00:33 To stream or not to stream, we'll start with Thursday. Zach Eflin at the Brewers, Connor Pilkington versus Oakland, James Capillian at the Guardians and J.T. Brewbaker at the Braves. Afflin's the only one I would want to use. Is there anybody else? Anybody else?
Starting point is 01:00:50 No, Austin Gomber. Nope, definitely not. Jordan Liles at the Royals? That's not terrible. I would prefer not to. Yeah, I agree. Friday, we've got Rwanzi Contreras at the Braves,
Starting point is 01:01:04 Spencer Strider versus the Pirates. Zimmerman at the Royals, Glenn Otto at the White Sox, and Chad Cool at the Padres. Strider for sure. Oh, yeah. Contreras, I definitely want to watch, but not going to start him against Atlanta. That's just too many ways for that to go wrong, but definitely want to keep an eye on him. All right, we're going to wrap there for Chris. I am Frank.
Starting point is 01:01:25 Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.

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