Fantasy Baseball Today - GERMAN MARQUEZ! Pitchers to Drop & Second Half Hitters to Target (6/30 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)
Episode Date: June 30, 2021We are running out of words to describe what Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Schwarber are doing (1:32). Woah there, German Marquez (5:30)! Should you add Joe Ross? ... We had SO many home runs on Tuesday (12:...48)! ... News and notes (16:57)! Trevor Bauer is under investigation for an alleged sexual assault, we had a trade, prospect updates, and more. ... Is it time to drop Kenta Maeda (23:46)? What about Rich Hill and Nick Pivetta? ... Should you drop them for any of Mike Foltynewicz, Caleb Smith, or Tylor Megill (30:37)? ... Ty France or Joey Votto (36:34)? Should you add Ryan O'Hearn or Gavin Sheets in deeper leagues? ... Which hitters have strong second half splits (39:47)? ... We have Tuesday leftovers, bullpens and streamers (44:37). ... We wrap up with your apple podcast questions (55:35). ... Email us at fantasybaseball@cbsi.com. 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts. CBS Sports and Westinghouse are teaming up to give away a 55" TV, portable power station and air purifier over the next month. Go to cbssports.com/homerun to enter. Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports.
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Get ready to win your league.
Well, fantasy becomes reality.
Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam.
I am not even sure what words to use to describe Showay Otani or Kyle Schwerver anymore.
Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Wednesday.
June 30th. Frank Stamphill joined by Chris Towers. Sorry for the late start. So so much going on.
And I haven't looked into this enough yet, Chris, but I am officially dubbing June 2021,
the all-time month of the hitter. Sticky substances, be gone, home runs up, batting average up.
It is a crazy time for offense in baseball.
I'm interested in that because last time I looked it was actually, yeah,
731 OPS in the month of June.
I feel like it was like 718
like a week ago when I last looked at it.
So maybe it's just been a historically great week
for offenses.
I don't know.
It might be or it might just be the fact
that offense was so bad in April and May
that just seeing this much now
is kind of making it look much better
than it actually is.
But nonetheless, man,
Shohay Otani and Kyle Schwerber
just ridiculous.
Ridiculous.
I got three words
to describe Kyle Schwerver.
Go.
Big, beefy, baseball,
boy, that's four words.
Yeah, I don't think Otani fits
that description.
Kyle Swarber definitely does,
but Schwabber,
another lead-off home run.
He's now up to 25 home runs
for the season.
16 in the month of June.
Guy is skyrocketing
up my rankings as well, Chris.
I think I moved him inside of my top.
25 outfielders. Is that too aggressive?
That doesn't strike me as unreasonable.
I mean, we've seen Kyle Schwerber go on probably nothing like this, but in 2019, he had a 997 OPS after the All-Star break with 20 homers and 70 games.
So, you know, that's a little bit different than 16 homers in 23 games or whatever he's on right now.
because it's actually all since June 10th, those 16 home runs, which is even more impressive.
It's 16 homers and I believe 23 games or something like that.
So he's been absolutely out of this world.
But we know Kyle Schwerber is an elite power hitter.
You know, he doesn't always hit like that.
It's, sorry, 16 home runs in 18 games is what he's at right now, which is really good.
and it's a fluke in that he's not going to hit 140 home runs this season
or I guess it would be more like 110 at this pace if he kept it up the rest of the season.
He's not going to do that.
I don't think I'm being unfair to Kyle.
But there's no question that he's got this kind of potential he always has.
And a big part of what we're seeing is he's batted leadoff in all but one.
of those games since June 10th.
So he's getting all but two, sorry,
he's getting more opportunities than he otherwise would
because before that he was mostly hitting fourth in the lineup.
Yes.
So that matters.
And well on his way to a career high in terms of home runs,
his previous high was 38 back in 2019,
currently on pace for 50 home runs.
We're basically at the halfway point of the season.
season. We're three months in, times his production by two. There you go on pace for 50 home runs.
I would still take the under on that, but man, we get over 40, mid 40, something like that.
I think that's pretty realistic for Kyle Schwerber as the weather just continues to heat up around
the country. Already mentioned Otani, of course, two more home runs. A double dong increases his league
lead to 28 homers. Obviously, playing in Yankee Stadium is going to help that.
Yeah, I'm sure you saw the second home run. Yeah, it was one of the weirdest home run.
I've ever seen. It was like a
letter's high fastball that
probably didn't go more than 20
feet off the ground. It was definitely
a Yankee Stadium home run, but
yeah, that was
such an impressive home run
to turn around on that up and
in pitch and hit a line
drive out basically. Ridiculous.
He's just, there's no words left to describe
what Shohei Otani is doing
right now, but another one we talked about what he was on
pace for last night, and obviously,
only increases that now.
So, yeah, that second home run,
if anyone's seen it,
just his ability to turn around on that was just...
11 homers in his last 13 games.
Another one, yeah, just Otani and Chorber right now.
And I moved Otani up to,
I believe, my fourth ranked outfielder.
Yeah, behind only Acuna Betts and Juan Soto.
You might want to argue that he should be ahead of Betts and Soto,
but not ready to do that yet.
Who knows?
Maybe in due time.
Let's talk about some other standouts
from Tuesday's action.
Oh my goodness gracious.
All right.
I'm going to start with Hermann Marquez,
who I believe was my oh my goodness gracious player
the last time he pitched.
And he took a no-hitter into the ninth inning
against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
He gave up one hit,
only one walk,
five strikeouts,
14 swinging strikes on 92 pitches
for Herman Marquez.
He has given up a total
of four hits over his last three starts.
Granted, really good matchups
against the Mariners, the Brewers,
and the pirates, but
I mean, we don't even see the game's best pitchers
doing that over a three-star stretch,
even against really good matchups.
So he's locked in right now, Hermann Rquez.
His last eight starts overall, 2.00 ERA,
only 46 strikeouts over 54 innings pitch.
But that also includes a start where he gave up
eight earned runs for Hermann Marquez,
and he still has a 2.00 ERA during that time.
So that lets you know exactly.
how well he is pitching on the season of 54% ground ball rate, 13% swinging strike rate.
The walks were a huge issue early on for Hermann-Marquez, but has really, really reigned in
that control during this recent stretch.
So, Chris, I mean, the question I have for you is, are you more likely to buy or sell Hermann
Marquez based on what he's doing right now?
Because I kind of see both paths.
You can sell based on what he's doing right now.
You don't think it's sustainable.
Or you can buy with the hope that the Rockies maybe trade him away.
What do you think?
Yeah, I mean, I'll also add that it's not just, you know,
the last eight starts or whatever it is.
It's actually his last 10.
If you go back, he's had two starts this season
that have really wrecked his ERA.
He's given up eight runs and five innings to the Reds on June 12.
and then that eight runs in two-thirds of an inning against the Giants on May 4th.
That represents 25% of his season total of earned runs allowed.
But over his last 10 starts, he's got a 2.32 ERA.
He's averaging 6.6 innings per start with 60 strikeouts and 66 innings, which isn't great,
but it's not far off from where he's been in the past.
and I think that's one of those
where the, let me see how many
batters he faced today. I think it's probably
man, he faced one more than the minimum.
That's pretty good.
I can't do a whole lot better than that.
So he's got a 23.5% strikeout rate.
So even though the K per 9 is a little
below average,
the strikeout rate is actually right at league average
because he's been so effective.
I think I would try to buy
because I think a lot of people are still very skeptical of Hermann Marquez.
And one thing we've seen from him in the past is he can go on these runs where, you know,
the second half of the 2019 season was his big breakout or 2018?
I think it was 2018.
Yeah, whatever it was, the big breakout, he was magnificent in the second half of the season.
And it got some of us believing that he could, you know, beat course field.
Nobody beats course field for long.
But I think her mom,
Marquez is a top 50 starting pitcher at least.
Yeah, I need to definitely move him up my rankings too.
So I think I'm with you, man.
Like even if the Rockies don't trade him away,
the metrics that we use to judge starting pitchers,
the walks being down, ground balls up, swinging strike rate up,
strikeouts, not necessarily up in this start,
only five over a complete game.
But just in general, the strikeouts have been better.
And given what the swinging strike rate
is I think that more strikeouts could be on the way too.
So yes, Corsefield is scary.
There's no doubt about it.
But he had a 3.56 ERA at home entering this start,
and it's only going to go down quite a bit.
So he's pitching well there this season.
I'm with you.
I think I'm more likely to buy Hermann Marquez,
but man, it's been quite the roller coaster already,
and I guess it wouldn't surprise me
if we get a few more of those ups and downs
before the season ends for Hermann-Marquez.
Chris, your oh my goodness gracious player,
from Tuesday.
Yeah, this isn't, you know, it's not quite as impressive as a one hitter in
course field, but Joe Ross continues to be very solid.
He went six and one-third, two strikeout, or two runs allowed, seven-ks.
It's not the best start ever, but taken in the context of what he's done over his last
seven starts, 240 ERA, 43Ks, 41 and one-third innings pitched, that's almost, that's
basically six innings per start, which is pretty impressive for a guy.
with Ross's track record.
I think he had a four-inning start in there with 59 pitches thrown.
So over his last five starts in the month of June,
he's got at least six innings pitched in four of them.
So, you know, with Ross, he really hasn't been good since like 2015-2016.
He's had an ERA above five in four seasons since then.
He didn't pitch in 2020.
He's dealt with a ton of injuries.
his velocity was up almost a mile and a half per hour.
Today it's been up generally in the month of June.
And the nationals are letting him throw, you know, a lot of pitches.
92, 108, 67, and 101 in his four starts before today.
And he threw 88 today.
So they're not really handling him with kids gloves.
And I think Joe Ross can be a useful pitcher moving forward.
Yeah, I'm actually surprised by what I've seen too
when you kind of look under the hood and you mentioned it,
but those last four starts, 2.41 ERA,
more strikeouts than innings pitch during that span,
and he has averaged over 94 miles per hour
in three of those four starts on his fastball.
He's 56% rostered Joe Ross is.
He has SPARP eligibility,
so if you play in a points league,
you can use him as a relief pitcher,
which is a cheat code in that format.
So, yeah, I'm with you.
I really like what I've seen from Joe Ross this season.
Let's compare him to a few other of the most added starting pitchers recently, Chris.
Would you rather have him over Zach Thompson?
I guess Thompson just because there's the air of the unknown.
He has that new cutter, so maybe there's something there.
But I think the most likely outcome is Joe Ross is usable and Zach Thompson isn't.
I think Thompson, just because of that, yeah, I guess unknown might have higher upside.
That's, yeah, that's the thought process at least.
Would you rather have Joe Ross or Kyle Mueller,
who will remain in the Braves rotation for the time being?
Again, it might be a similar one where Mueller gets the edge just for, you know,
a bit of the unknown.
Although I think, you know, that might be underselling how unknown Joe Ross is at this point,
given how little he's pitched over the last few years.
Before we move on to news and notes, I do want to just mention
all of the other, like, big home run performances that we saw on Tuesday because there was a lot of them.
So to go along with Shohei Otani and Kyle Schwerber, Joey Gallo had another double dong.
He has 18 home runs on the season, nine home runs in June.
You're falling.
No, he's not.
No, he's not.
He is actually rising.
I moved him up inside my top 40 outfielders, and honestly, it needs to be higher than that.
So I'm going to go back to the drawing board on that one.
but Joey Gallo looks a lot like Joey Gallo so far in June.
Gary Sanchez had two more hits,
including his 14th home run of the season.
Aaron Judge added his 18th home run.
Juan Soto and Victor Robles,
who's kind of a hit parade early on
against who is Rich Hill.
It was early on in that game.
They were just bombs away on him.
But Juan Soto hit his ninth home run.
Victor Robles, it was his first home run of the season.
More on Rich Hill a little bit later on.
Reese Hoskins hit his 17th homer.
Day after I bring him up as a dropometer.
ended it. So, great job.
How it'll happen? Jesse Winker hit his
19th. It's been a while since we've talked
about Jesse Winker. Batting average OPS
down a little bit for the month, but
still really good. It's
something like 280 and right around
a 900 Ops, so again,
it's still awesome. Ozzy Albies
hit his 13th home run, and since May 1st,
he is batting 265 with eight
homers and nine steals.
Nolan Aronado went two for three with his 16th
home run. Brandon Lau
hit his 16th home run of the season.
and all of a sudden in June,
batting 241, 7 homers.
Sounds a lot like Brandon Lau.
Cedric Mullins hit his 14th home run.
Another one, Chris.
I moved the way up.
I think I haven't outfielded are 22 now
because he shows no signs of slowing down.
Just sticking to being a lefty this year
has done Cedric Mullins wonders.
His quality of contact way up.
We spoke about him on yesterday's podcast as well.
And the last one is Josh Johnson.
12th homer has six hits with two home runs.
in four games since returning from his calf injury.
I lied it wasn't the last one.
We had two socks and two shoes.
That's a home run and a steel.
Sock and a shoe in the same game.
Tommy Fam, three more hits,
including his ninth homer,
12th stolen base in June.
Batting 337 with six homers and six steals
has let off every game for the Padres
except two since May 25th.
Chris, I kind of want to buy high on Tommy Fam.
Yeah.
Yeah, I think he,
I wrote about him as a riser in the trade values chart column last week.
The second,
the next one will be coming out tomorrow.
I pretty much finished my updated rankings for that.
And I think there's still,
you know,
room for him to keep improving.
And,
you know,
pretty much since,
I think it's like mid-May,
he's been quite good.
You're,
you know,
you're going to get,
you know,
end up with 25 homers and 12 to 15 steals from him probably.
Yeah, if not more, steals.
Yeah, nine homers and 12 seals at the halfway mark.
So, I mean, 20, maybe even flirts with 25, 25,
just needs to stay healthy.
That's obviously the biggest key for Tommy fam.
Whitmeryfield has homered him back-to-back games,
and he's now up to eight homers and 22 steals for the season,
batting over, I believe it's over 350 for the month of June.
So a nice little bounce-back month here for Whitmerfield.
Just want to remind everybody about what's going on,
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News and notes from Tuesday.
And the biggest story, unfortunately, Trevor Bauer is under investigation for allegedly
assaulting a woman earlier this year, according to TMZ.
Not much more than that that we can add at this time, but obviously it's a very serious
story and one that we will keep you updated on as we get more information.
Jose Orkitti left to start on Tuesday
with right shoulder discomfort
speaking of kiddies
Jose or Kitty
I'm trying to virtually
pet David Bowie right now but it's not working
pet Boe want to talk
Jose or Qaeda left his start on Tuesday
with right shoulder discomfort maybe this opens up a spot
for Christian Javier to get thrown
back into the rotation he is 67%
rostered the Astros
according to roster resource
at least we're rolling with a six-man
rotation right now.
So they might want to keep that going.
We had a trade.
And it included the Blue Jays who acquired Corey Dickerson and reliever Adam Simber from the
Miami Marlins in exchange for infielder Joe Panic.
And in undisclosed minor league pitcher, I assume Dickerson just fills a fourth outfielder
role.
Yeah, it sounds like that was Dickerson was kind of the price of trading for Adam Simber.
Simber is the guy the, the Blue Jays wanted here.
Yeah.
And I looked into his numbers.
Really low ERA.
It doesn't get any strikeouts at all for Adam Simber.
So I guess just another bullpen piece for them.
Bullpen's been an issue for Toronto.
Yeah, let's get some of those leads to Jordan Romano so we could get more saves.
We had some mixed reports on Tuesday for Alex Bregman.
Bregman himself said that he had an ultrasound on his strain left quad,
which went great and that he is way ahead of schedule.
Dusty Baker also said that Bregman will be out at least another month.
maybe those things are not mutually exclusive.
Maybe he's Bregman's ahead of schedule,
and he's still going to be out another month.
But we are going to talk about players
who have really strong second half numbers
for their career,
and Alex Bregman is one of them.
So if you want to trade for him,
I don't think it's a bad idea,
but you might be waiting a while
before he actually returns to the lineup.
Blake Snell was scratched on Tuesday
due to dehydration and stomach problems.
Craig Stammon started in his place.
they had a bullpen game. Chris Bryant was out of the lineup due to side soreness. He is batting
114 with a 445 OPS in June. Anthony Rizzo also remain out of the lineup with his tight lower back.
And Chris, I'm not ready to do victory laps or anything, obviously, because Chris Bryant has been
awesome. But part of my concern with him coming into the year is that he's always kind of
dealing with something. And I think those some things are kind of catching up to Chris Bryant right now.
Yeah, I mean, we'll see.
It's, I don't know, it's always, it always feels like when you've got like a general
soreness kind of situation going on.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Sorry, my cat is sitting on the keyboard and a bunch of things just happened.
I hope it didn't mess up the podcast.
No, we're still going for now.
Yeah, you know, it kind of feels like sometimes you get like the, this player is struggling and
then we learn that they're dealing with.
with some kind of minor injury,
whereas if they were hitting well,
you don't necessarily hear about it.
I don't know.
It's certainly not ideal.
It's not what you want to hear
from Chris Bryant,
given that he's been so good this season.
But, you know,
we'll see where it goes.
Let's see where it goes.
Jose Abraeu surprisingly returned to the lineup
on Tuesday,
despite getting hit by a pitch on his knee on Sunday
and he was writhing and rolling around on the ground.
So I was surprised to see him in the lineup.
Gene Seguerra was activated
and was batting second for the Phillies on Tuesday.
Steven Strassberg threw off the bullpen mound for the second time since suffering his injury.
He remains without a timetable.
Colton Wong remained out with his calf issue.
Yohan Moncada was out of the lineup due to his shoulder, quote, barking, according to his manager, Tony Larusa.
Yon Mankata is batting 275 with five homers and two steals on the season.
It's not a bad year, but it's definitely not a good one for Yohan Mankata.
It's kind of been a mixed bag.
It's kind of similar to what, you know, it's going on with Chris Bryant,
where Munkata actually had like an 850 OPS in the first two months of the season.
Really good play discipline.
And then he's just been kind of awful in June so far.
And, you know, maybe that's kind of the, well, he got a day off.
He's been dealing with something.
We're trying to get him on track kind of thing.
Let's hope that's what it is.
Max Reed has fully recovered from his blister issue and we'll start on Wednesday.
Michael Panetta started a rehab assignment on Tuesday.
he was on the, he's currently on the IL with forearm inflammation.
Luis Robert was cleared to ramp up baseball activities.
Remember, he is on the IL.
Since May with a strained hip, his timeline still remains sometime in August.
So good news here for Robert, but he's still at least a month, month and a half away.
Ryan Weathers is expected to be recalled from AAA and start on Thursday for the Padres.
He had a 3.60 ERA and a 1.50 wiser.
whip in two starts in the minors.
He is 23% rostered Ryan Weathers
for those in deeper leagues.
And the A's recalled Frank Schwindel.
Who is that guy?
Well, he's a 29-year-old minor leaguer
who was crushing it in AAA.
He was batting 324 with 16 home runs.
Throw him on the scout team.
The prospect updates.
The Brewers promoted pitching prospect,
Aaron Ashby from AAA.
He had an 871 ERA across 10 and a 30.
innings as a reliever, but he was pitching very well as a starter originally. 2.93 ERA over
27 and two-thirds innings pitch. Ashby expected to be used out of the bullpen initially
for the Brewers. Chris, anything that you would like to add? That's Andy Ashby's nephew.
Oh. That's what I would like to add. Okay. Throw them on the scout team. The Phillies option,
Spencer Howard, back to AAA. He had a 5.82 ERA across 21 and two-thirds innings, though they
never really gave him a fair shot to be a starter. He did not have a start where he went more than
four innings. So I don't really know what the Phillies plan is for Spencer Howard. Yeah, and he's
already 24. The results so far in the majors have been pretty mediocre. I don't know. I don't
know what to make of him, you know, as far as like, does he still have, definitely still has
potential, but how likely it is that he's going to make an impact? That's a big question right now.
this point. Yeah, I think that unfortunately is very fair to say about Spencer Howard. Yesterday we did
the drop o meter for some hitters. Let's fire it up for some pitchers. And the first one I want to talk
about is Kentimaiata, who up against the White Sox, four in two thirds, eight hits, seven runs, five walks.
On the season, 5.56 ERA, 1.55 whip for Kentimaieta. The walks are up to 3.2 per nine on the
season last year, 1.5 walks per nine. The swinging strike rate is currently 13% last year.
It was 17%. And according to Stacast, Kentimaeta's hard hit rate this season is 41% last year.
That was 24%. Chris, what is the dropometer 1 to 10? One, you're holding on 10. You could drop them in all
leagues on Kenta Maeda. Yeah, the thing is, before this start, he was actually pretty good recently.
He'd only made two starts since coming back from the IL and he missed about four weeks.
But in six starts since the start of May, he'd had a 25% strikeout rate, a 8% walk rate and a 377ER.
You know, it's certainly not ace production, but it's not dropable.
So I'm still willing to give him the chance, the benefit of the doubt.
I actually picked him up in Tau Wars this week because somebody had dropped him.
So I would say one
And that's a pretty deep league
That's a 12 team Roto league
You start nine pitchers, right?
Yeah
So wow, yeah
Someone dropped Kenta Maida there
That's pretty interesting
I think it's shallower leagues
It depends who's available
Like I would be kind of tempted
To drop Kentomita for Shane McClanahan
If he were still available in my league
I think that's reasonable, yeah
Yep
Who would you rather have rest of season Maida
Or Hermann Marquez?
Mayeta
I think we're getting really close though on that one.
The next one I want to talk about Rich Hill,
I already brought up his name,
but at the Washington National six innings,
eight hits, four runs, one walk, two strikeouts.
He actually settled down quite well
because he allowed those four runs,
I believe it was in the first two innings,
still managed to go six in this start.
The breaking pitches were down about two miles per hour each,
which obviously coincides with his spin rate
being down over 200 RPM on both the curveball and the slider.
Rich Hill has a 4.64 ERA and 5 June starts.
He's still 87% rostered.
Chris, the dropometer on Rich Hill.
Yeah, I'm higher on that here.
I would say like a 5 or a 6.
If Shane McLeanahan was out here, I would definitely add him.
So, yeah, like the biggest concern for me is just that strikeouts haven't really been
all that impressive of late. What was it two today? Yeah, only two. And I saw that you quote
tweeted something that pointed out. The spin rate on his breaking pitches has been dropping precipitously.
Yes. Yeah, and he's at 20 strikeouts and 25-ish innings in the month of June. So that's definitely
not a great sign. I think he's pretty droppable. All right. Would you drop him for Joe Ross?
That's fine.
All right, I think David Bowie agrees, actually.
I was imploring David Bowie to please get off my keyboard.
She always wants to lie down on the keyboard, which, like, anywhere else is fine.
You know, I love cats, Chris.
I actually prefer cats over dogs, which I guess is kind of a take.
You're going to get some hate for that one.
I'm fine with it.
I'm allowed to have...
They're not competing.
I'm allowed to have an Azer take every down then.
But...
They're both good.
The one thing that I do find...
most troubling about cats is like
everything that you don't want them to do
is what they want to do.
Oh yeah, you got no control.
My dog like,
if I clap and make like a loud noise,
he'll go like, whoa,
what was that?
And then he'll stop doing what he was doing.
There's nothing you can really do to a cat
that can make them stop.
Like I can pick her up and drop her on the floor
and she'll just jump back up.
If she wants to be here, you're not stopping it.
Yep.
That's absolutely true, man.
I love my cat.
I've had her for six months or something now.
She's awesome.
But at the same time, you're right.
Like, you can clap.
She might look at you for a second
and then just go back to doing exactly what you didn't know.
Yeah, the other cat wakes my wife up at 5.30 every morning to feed them.
She'll bite her hands or her lip maybe.
Oh, my gosh.
And if she doesn't wake up from that stuff,
she starts just knocking stuff off her nightstand.
Oh my God. That's rough. They can be jerks.
Nick Povetta on the drop omita. Let's talk about him. He was up against the Royals,
four and a third, nine hits, six earned runs. This comes after a start where
I forgot how many endings it was, but he was, he did not allow a hit in those
in his previous start. The ERA is up to 4.43 for the season. If we look at specifically
June, six June starts for Nick Povetta, a 5.48 ERA during that span.
Like Rich Hill, he's still 87% rostered, Chris.
Dropometer, Nick Povetta.
Eight, nine.
I think he's, you know, but maybe you'll miss him,
but I think it's more likely than not
that he's just going to be a guy you pick up
and, you know, try to ride while he's hot
and then drop all season long.
I'm just going to lump these two together
and kind of issue an apology to anyone
who we told to pick up James and Tion
because I don't know what the issue is.
Some of the underlying numbers actually look pretty good for him.
He gives up a lot of fly.
balls that's not playing well in Yankee Stadium, obviously. He's getting a good amount of
swinging strikes. He's getting strikeouts, but when the guy gets hit, he gets hit hard. So
James and Tyone against the Angels gave a five earned runs. The ERA is at 5.43. Andrew Haney,
same thing on the other side. He's got a 5.40 ERA. Chris, do you have any issues dropping
either of these pitchers? No. I mean, I could definitely see Jameson Tyone going on a big run in the
second half, but he's throwing his sinker a lot less in favor of his four-seem fastball.
And like you said, the 34% ground ball rate or whatever it is just doesn't bode well.
So I'm fine dropping him.
I think he's like a six or something.
You know, if you can stash him in a deeper league just because there's nothing available, sure.
But like, again, Shane McClan's the name we bring up all the time.
I wouldn't, you know, I wouldn't even think twice about dropping Jameson.
Tyone for him. Would you drop Tyone for Joe Ross?
I think I'd be okay with it, yeah.
Yeah, I think you could kind of just ride the hot hand right now, and Joe Ross is definitely
that. Let's talk about a few other starting pitchers that you might be able to add based
on what they did on Tuesday. My Fultenevich, interestingly enough, at the Oakland A's.
Now two starts in a row where he's faced the Oakland A's. Seven innings, four hits,
two runs, six strikeouts. He had 14 swinging strikes on 94 pitches, back-to-back quality
starts, and he threw a season high
19 curveballs.
So there was two different fastballs,
four seamer, sinker. He's got two different
breaking pitches, slider, curveball.
The overall numbers are still not good
for Fulte, but he's looked much
better over his last two starts, Chris.
I think he's
pretty fringy.
I don't see much reason to go out
and chase him. Like, he's
been a nice ad for my
Scott White Dynasty,
Scott White Dynasty League team
just because he's made his starts.
But that's about the best I can say for him.
How's your Scott White Dynasty League team doing, Chris?
Can we make another trade or no?
I am 8 and 4.
So, you know, cooled off a little from the hot start.
But, you know, getting Mike Trout back soon.
All right.
And, you know, I think things are going to be okay.
I got to check out your team
because I have a few more pieces that I'm looking to sell off.
So maybe we'll be a match there.
Maybe you'll want to acquire Vince Velasquez,
who was up against the Marlins.
Seven shutout with seven strikeouts on Tuesday,
14 swinging strikes on 97 pitches.
However, he had a 7.97 ERA over his previous five starts.
Was this just a Marlins thing?
Yeah, I haven't been willing to buy the random good Vince Velasquez start
since at least 2019, probably earlier than that.
I've learned my lesson too many times from that.
He'll have the occasional good start, but he's just, he's not good.
Yeah, no, I agree with that.
How about Caleb Smith?
He was out the Cardinals, five innings, two runs, three walks, eight strikeouts.
And since joining the Diamondbacks rotation, Caleb Smith has a 2.81 ERA with 35 strikeouts over 31 and a third in a third innings pitched.
However, he does have three or more walks in four straight starts.
His underlying numbers are much, much worse
than his actual numbers, Chris.
Your interest level in adding Caleb Smith.
Higher than Vince Velasquez and Mike Fultenevich,
lower than Joe Ross.
I think that's fair to say.
He's currently 41% rostered.
Some people picked him up for the two-star week this week.
He allows a lot of fly balls,
50% fly balls since joining the rotation.
Eventually, those are going to hurt him.
Yeah, this was kind of the plateau.
ideal of a Caleb Smith start.
He didn't go deep into the game.
He walked a lot of guys, but he got
enough strikeouts that he was able to make it work.
But that's kind of the best
case scenario for him most of the time.
Carlos Martinez is a lot
like Vince Velasquez, six innings, one run,
six strikeouts. He's 26%
rostered. Anything to see there, Chris?
Was his last start the one where he
walked like eight guys, or was that the previous
start? I think
that might have been the previous
one. Yeah, it looks like
No, he had seven walks in his last, 11 in his previous two combined.
Yeah, he's bad.
No, I don't have much interest in Carlos Martinez at this point, unfortunately.
The last one that I'll bring up, Tyler McGill for the Mets.
He is not really a prospect.
Maybe he's a prospect.
A borderline prospect.
He was at the Braves, five innings, three runs, two walks, eight strikeouts,
14 swinging strikes on 85 pitches.
He had at least four swings and misses on each of his slider.
changeup, and four seam.
There's now two starts in a row
where he has cruised through four innings
and then runs into trouble in the fifth inning.
I didn't see if they mentioned
if he's going to stay in the rotation or not.
But anything, Chris, Tyler, Miguel.
Yeah, I think you're kind of seeing
what his profile suggests,
which is that he's probably not a full-time starter.
He had made 21 starts and 40 appearances in the minors.
He was a reliever in college.
His senior season, it looks like he made one start in 19 appearances.
So, you know, he's transitioning to being a starter.
He's made every start so far this season.
But I don't think there's much to get excited about there.
All right.
So if we're just ranking these waiver wire starting pitchers, Joe Ross was number one.
Caleb Smith was number two, right?
Yeah, Ross, Caleb Smith, Fultenevich, Velasquez, Martinez.
I guess I could go
McGill over Martinez.
All right.
I mean, it's not obviously
the biggest vote of confidence,
but let's see where he goes from here.
Let's take a quick break,
but when we return,
some waiver wire hitters,
we'll talk about him next here
on Fantasy Baseball today.
All right, so I want to pit Ty France
and Joey Vado up against each other.
We've talked about both of these guys
for quite a while,
but they're still rostered
in under 70% of CBS League.
So if you're playing a Points League
or a just shallower league in general,
they may be available to you.
Ty France went two for four with his eighth home run of the season.
He's batting 295 with five homers since returning from the IL.
And Joey Votto added two more hits.
He's batting 282 with four home runs since coming off of the IL.
Chris, if you had to choose between one of those two, Ty France or Joey Votto.
I would think Votto, just, you know, looking at Thai France's expected stats,
they're all pretty gross.
So, you know, Votto's actually hitting the ball very well,
even if the results haven't been great.
And I don't think he's going to be, you know,
the 374 X-Woba guy that he currently looks like.
But I think he'll be better than what he's been so far.
All right.
If you play in a Categories League,
I keep bringing up the name because he's stealing bases,
but Miles Straw added two walks,
stole his 12th base of the season.
Also took his fifth caught stealing of the season on Tuesday.
But where, if anywhere, are you looking?
to add Miles straw.
Any Roto league, really.
Any league where stolen bases really matter.
Even 12 team leagues.
Yeah, I think so.
I added him, I believe, in Tout Wars,
and maybe another 12 team league.
Just, you know, the possibility that he'll
provide a little bit of batting average, good on base skills,
and the stolen bases, that has value.
You know, I'm in last place in a couple of leagues and steals.
So I need all the help.
I can get. Yes, and I'm sure many people are in a similar predicament when it comes to stolen bases.
One of the hardest categories, of course, to compete in and project every single season.
Four Miles Straw, he is currently batting 271. He's really got that batting average up there now with
a 349 OBP. That's certainly serviceable for a, I guess, steals only specialist. In deeper leagues,
Chris, anything to see here. Ryan O'Hern went three for four with another home run. He's 11 for 32,
with three home runs since returning to the majors for the Royals.
And Gavin Cheats, who is like a borderline top 10 prospect
in the White Sox organization, he went two for four
with a double and two RBI in what I believe
was his major league debut on Tuesday.
He was called up because Jake Lamb went on the I.L.
So anything to see here, Gavin Sheets or Ryan O'Hern?
O'Hern has had stretches where he's
been kind of interesting. So, you know, maybe he'll continue, uh, to do that. He's, he's got pretty good
power. Sheets, I have trouble just looking at his minor league track record, getting all that excited
about him. Um, 77, 77, 774 OPS bat. He's a 25 year old. So it's not like he's particularly
young. I would probably pass outside of an AL only league. All right. Yeah. I mean, again, only in the
deepest leagues. Gavin Sheets and Ryan O'Hern are the names there. Let's look at some players who have
strong second half splits in their career and I'm going to split, poor pun, I'm going to split these
two into two different groups. I have 12 players listed here. Jorge Saler, Jose Abraeu, Michael
Conforto, Josh Donaldton, Tommy Fam, and Alex Breggman. That's your first group there. Again,
Saler, Abraeu, Conforto, Donaldson, Fam, Bregman. These are all players who have strong second half
splits in their career. Chris, give me one.
one or two of these hitters that you would
most be looking to acquire
for a second half push?
I don't put too much stock in historical
first half, second half splits.
I think Jorge Salar is a good example of why
he's basically just had one awesome second half.
Or I was looking at
Vladimir Guerrero has a
much higher. I think it's like a 60 point swing
in OPA, Woba, between
the first half and the second half
in the second half, but that's mostly because he hasn't had a second half of the season while
he's hitting as the best hitter in baseball. So I don't put a ton of stock in there, but I do think
Tommy fan, who we talked about earlier, Bregman, if you can get him for a discount because of the injury.
And I think Michael Conforto is a good player to try to go get. I think he's a lot better than he's
shown this season, even if he's not going to be as good as he was last year.
Jose Ibrahimiru, if he can get healthy, he is someone who, I hear what you're saying, Chris,
because some of them you kind of have to take a case by case, but like Jose Abraeu is just someone
who has always played better in the second half of seasons. And I remember reading this a while
ago, actually, and he straight up admitted that coming over from Cuba, he just plays better
in warmer weather. So, you know, as the weather heats up, he plays in Chicago. So it does
have to deal with some tougher weather. And like, that's not unreasonable.
reasonable.
Yeah.
For Jose Braves' career, 826 OPS in the first half, 898 OPS in the second half of
seasons.
So I'm with you on Conforto, Bregman, if he can get healthy.
Donaldson, I like the possibility of trying to acquire him, but I'm still really worried
about that calf.
I think that's probably something you're going to deal with the rest of this season, probably
the rest of Josh Donaldson's career for just being totally honest.
Yeah, we're going on three or four years now of it being a pretty serious injury.
The second group of hitters that have strong second half splits in their career,
Jesse Winker, Matt Chapman, Gary Sanchez, Kyle Swarber,
I guess good luck trying to acquire him right now, Austin Meadows and Francisco Lindor.
Anyone that stands out to you there, Chris, that you would be looking to buy?
I still think Francisco Lindor might be a buy low candidate just because
the perception seems to still be that he's been bad.
And the overall numbers certainly have not been what you thought they would be.
but I believe since the start of June,
he's on like a 30-homer 12-12 steel,
195 run plus RBI pace.
So he's basically been pretty close to what we hope
Francisco Lindor will be most seasons.
So if you can get him for a discount,
I like that one.
And Matt Chapman.
He's much better than he's shown.
And we're seeing that league.
I think he,
I don't know if he's still got the streak,
but I think he's hit safely in like 18 games in a row now.
Let's see, 15 games in a row now, 10.54 OPS.
Obviously, I don't think he's going to do that.
But what we saw in the second half of the 2018 season,
was that the year he almost won MVP,
finished top three?
Yeah, he was a monster in the second half,
14 homers, 39 RBI, 52 runs and 64 games,
with a 961 OPS.
I think he's a very, very, very,
good hitter who hasn't shown it.
You know, he, you know, he's coming back from surgery, so maybe that's part of it,
why he got off such a slow start.
But I think Chapman's a good by-low still, even, you know, with this little hot streak.
Yeah, Matt Chapman hit his 11th home run of the season on Tuesday.
It was his sixth home run of June.
So it's taking him a few months here.
He did have off-season hip surgery.
So that was one of my concerns with him coming into the year, kind of similar to Cody
Bellinger, though, obviously it was two different body parts.
I thought that they could get off to slow starts, but now is the time to honestly look
to acquire either one.
Matt Chapman, Cody Bellinger, if you can somehow get him on a discount, I would look into
doing that as well.
Who would you rather have between Chapman and Michael Conforto?
Just in a vacuum if you're looking to acquire a hitter.
Let's see.
I just get this.
It's Chapman.
All right.
There you go.
Anyone out there looking to acquire some hitting for the second half?
Those are some names that you can look at.
Let's look at some of the left.
from Tuesday's action.
Trevor Story had two more hits with two more RBI.
Wander Franco went one for four with a single,
but has just one strikeout to three walks over his last three games.
So if anyone is concerned about the plate discipline for Wander Franco,
you shouldn't be.
I guess other things, if you're worried about his batted ball data,
sure you can be.
I think he's hitting like over 50% fly balls.
That's too high for Wander Franco.
But the plate discipline has been good.
Trevor Rogers, another solid start, five and two thirds, two earned runs,
nine strikeouts, 20 swinging strikes on 99 pitches.
Trevor Rogers has allowed three earned runs or less in all 16 of his starts this season.
Lucas Gilito, up against the twins, quality start, six-endings, three runs,
only one strike out here, Chris, nine swinging strikes, the spin rates for Lucas Gilito
down across the board, 175 RPM on the fastball, 185 RPM on the slider,
377 RPM on the curveball.
Are you worried about Gialito?
Should he be in this conversation with Trevor Bauer
and Garrett Cole as pitchers who are losing spin rate?
I think you can certainly include him in that discussion
and looking at my trade values.
I've basically got him tied with Corbyn Burns,
who's another player who is, you know,
I wouldn't say bleeding value,
but certainly has taken a hit a little bit over his last handful
of starts.
But I don't want to overreact either.
I haven't moved him down too much.
Yeah, it's the same thing that we're doing
with those other names.
We don't want to overreact, but we will
continue to fill you in as more
information and more spin rates become
available. The top four in the Blue Jays lineup
combined for 11 hits on Tuesday, including
the 19th home run for Marcus Semyon and the 15th
home run for Bo Bouchet.
Pitching for the Blue Jays was Robbie Ray, turned in
another quality start, six in
three runs, 10 strikeouts. The ERA is down to 3.43 for Robbie Ray. As usual, it gives up a lot of hard
contact. So, Robbie Ray, Terrick Scuba, they're kind of in similar molds, except Robbie Ray is just
a lot better, obviously, at this point. Charlie Morton, I already mentioned him, six
endings, three runs, seven strikeouts. Chris, Charlie Morton's last three starts, 20 and two-thirds
innings, three earned runs, 25 strikeouts to three walks. He has completely
ditched his sinker, a pitch that had a 344 batting average against this season.
If I held on to Charlie Morton or I acquired him, I'm very excited right now.
Yeah, I think you should be.
I've pretty much kept the faith with him all season and it's starting to pay off for sure.
It's interesting, he is not losing spin rate.
I don't know if maybe, you know, I kind of, you know, maybe unfairly assumed he might be in that
conversation as well, but
his spin rate was actually
well within the normal ranges
today. So
that's a good sign. And his
average fastball velocity
was up to 96.2 miles per hour,
which is a mile per hour above
where he's been this season. So
that's a very good sign as well.
Christian Yelich went one for three with a
double, a walk, a run, an RBI,
and his sixth stolen base. In June,
Yelich is batting 256.
four homers,
meh, 24% strikeout rate.
Okay, that's way down from where it was earlier.
55% hard hit rate,
according to Stackass for Christian Yellich.
So, Chris, is your confidence growing
throughout the month of June for Yelich?
Yeah, one thing I would want to see,
and I'm not sure how to look it up quickly,
would be what his launch angle is right now.
But it's two degrees over the course of the full season,
which is worse than when he was in Miami.
And that was a big part of his breakout was hitting the ball.
He's always hit the ball really hard, hitting the ball in the air,
is what unlocked his power.
And that could be why he's not hitting for power right now.
But look, the six stolen bases, that's like a 22-ish stolen base pace for a full season.
That's a pretty good sign that he's feeling better.
So for the month of June, Chris, Yelich has a 3.9 degree average launch angle.
Still way below where it's been in his brewer's career, but better than it was before.
So that, again, that's a sign if he's not himself yet.
At least he does appear to be feeling better, which is a good thing.
Brandon Woodruff, six-ennings, one run, eight strikeouts, 12 swinging strikes on 104 pitches.
Pretty standard, great start from Brandon Woodruff.
One day after telling people they might want to drop Glaber Torres, he goes two for four with two RBI, a walk,
his fifth stolen base of the season.
However, his three-batted balls averaged
81.9 mile per hour exit velocity.
So I...
I still think you can consider dropping him.
I'm not saying you definitely need to drop him,
but it's absolutely worth having the discussion.
Last one I want to talk about Walker Bueller,
who has now gone at least six innings
in every start this season.
So shout out to Walker Bueller.
I definitely did not expect that.
two-thirds, one run, seven strikeouts against the Giants.
The spin rates, Chris, way down for Walker Bueller, but I don't think it really matters because...
Well, the thing with him was he was a really good pitcher before his spin rate spiked this year.
So, you know, if he's going back to being a really good pitcher as opposed to being a really good pitcher,
you know, I don't think there's much to worry about.
I know a couple of weeks ago we said that we would take Aaron Nola over Walker Bueller, Chris.
where are you at on that conversation?
I think it's pretty close at this point.
And I do have Walker Buehler a little below Aaron Nola.
I think that's, I can rectify that.
I think they're very close, but maybe Bueller's a little ahead now.
The call to the pen, some bullpen updates.
And for the Phillies, Jose Alvarado entered the game in the eighth inning
with a four-run lead.
He gave up one run in the eighth.
and then gave up a two-run homer in the ninth.
Alvarado did pick up his third save,
but Chris,
he has looked very shaky recently
where, you know,
he's kind of been used all over the place.
They said he was going to be the closer.
He's 40% rostered Alvarado.
Should that number be higher?
Yeah, but I don't think he's a must-add.
I'm really only adding him in Roto leagues
where I need saves.
Yeah, don't pick him up in any points.
We have a good amount of sparks, actually,
at this point between Joe Ross
and Cole Irvin.
been pretty good.
Shane McClainahan.
Freddie Peralta's been great all year long.
James Caprillion gave us another quality start on Tuesday.
So yeah, it's been a pretty good position in points.
Leagues.
For the Nationals, Brad Hand got his 18th save.
The Red Sox, Matt Barnes, 18th save as well.
For the Mets, Edwin Diaz, got his 17th.
Alex Reyes, for the Cardinals, pitched two innings
and got his 19th save of the season.
The White Sox, Liam Hendricks,
21st, save.
The Padres, Mark Malanson, got his 25th.
And the Dodgers,
Kenley Jans.
got his 20th save.
I will just say,
outside of maybe a handful of bullpens,
which we talk about a lot,
the Phillies,
the Reds,
the Orioles,
I guess,
the Royals,
everyone else has kind of settled into,
like,
a pretty good closer situation.
Do you feel that same way,
Chris?
Yeah.
Yeah, no,
I think that's fair.
There haven't been really,
like, Cincinnati, Philadelphia,
there are a handful,
but it does feel
a little more settled than it has in a while.
One player I want to highlight is Alex Reyes,
who just,
he has a 1.04 ERA or actually 0.98 now after this outing.
That's not sustainable.
And you look at the 461 X-FIP.
That makes it look a lot more unsustainable.
But one thing I'll point out is,
Alex Reyes has had elite, elite, elite quality of contact numbers.
He's got a 173XBA again, still 295X slug.
You see the X-FIP and it's like, well, it's almost five.
That's pretty bad.
X-FIP normalizes home run rate.
It assumes that everyone will have more or less the same home run rate.
You can't make that assumption with Alex Reyes.
He's got a 4.7% home run to fly ball rate for his career.
This is who he is.
And, you know, he's going to be someone who I think outperforms his peripherals pretty
consistently.
And so, you know, don't worry too much about that.
I've seen, you know, some hand-wringing about it.
But I don't think it's a concern.
Yeah, Alex Reyes, man.
What of one of the, I feel confident saying the biggest breakout closers,
one of the fantasy MVP candidates at the position,
at the relief pitcher position, he's been absolutely lights out.
To stream or not to stream, we'll start with Wednesday.
Vladimir Gutierrez versus the Padres, Martin Perez,
versus the Royals, Riley Smith at the Cardinals,
Quang Hen Kim versus the Diamondbacks,
Jake Arieta at the Brewers,
and John Gray versus the Pirates.
Is this John Gray's first start back from the aisle?
Second.
I think I'd rank him first,
and he's the only one I think I'd be willing to use.
Maybe Quang Yun Kim.
I agree with you.
Gray is a legitimate streamer.
If you're in a deeper league and super desperate,
I think Kim versus the Diamondbacks
and Martine Perez versus the Royals
just because the royals are very bad.
Are you right, Chris?
She just opened like 20 programs.
I don't know what happened.
I don't even know how to open the program that she opened.
I don't know where it's found on my computer,
but she just opened it like 22 times.
Oh, gosh.
All right, well, you're still...
No, I'm not okay, Frank.
You're still with us, which is all I need to know.
For Thursday, Johnny Quato at the Diamondbacks.
Dane Dunning at the Oakland A's,
Jordan Montgomery versus the Angels,
Griffin Canning at the Yankees,
J.C. Mejia versus the Astros.
Montgomery and Quato, if I had to,
but those are the only ones I think are decent.
I mean, I guess I could see Canning
just because the Yankees have been pretty mediocre,
but I wouldn't feel confident about it in that park.
Quato had a quality start his last time out
that Diamondbacks
just made Carlos Martinez look good
I guess I could get behind
Johnny Quato as well
let's wrap up here with some Apple podcast review questions
thank you to everyone out there
who has left a five star rating and review
a lot of people coming to the support of
oh my goodness gracious as well so I do appreciate that
this question is from Rondo
what is the best way to find partial
season statcast data and
the way that I just did it is I go to
a player's page on
fangraphs.com, then you
click on their game log, and
you can sort by whatever date you want.
Say you just want to look at the past two weeks.
You can go into their little calendar thing,
and you could choose the last two weeks,
and then there is a statcast tab
within the whole game log,
whatever. You'll see a bunch of menus there.
And that's how I do it. Chris,
I don't know if you know an easier way to do that.
I think on the stat cast player pages,
one thing that they do have is
you know, under the stat cast
tab you've got like the graph that shows up for every player you can go from all seasons to
2021 you can go from season to month and then you can kind of sort by what you're looking for
so like i'm on patrick wisdom's page and he had a 90.9% hard hit rate in uh in 71 or 16 plate
appearances in May, that's pretty good. Still up to 57.1% so far in the month of June, but the
whiff rate has climbed to 44% overall. So, you know, that's one option that you can do as well.
This next one's from Joel Christie. I'm in a 12-te-to-head league. I was looking to sell high and
buy low and was totally shocked that this trade proposal was actually accepted. I offered
Cedric Mullins' trade up for Moogie Betts. Great the trade.
A plus plus plus plus.
You know what's crazy, Chris?
Even with how bad Betts has been this year,
he's batting around 250.
He's averaging 3.5 fantasy points per game in points leagues.
Cedric Mullins,
who is on a near 30, 25 pace,
is averaging 3.3 fantasy points per game.
Yeah, like this is the worst season Betts has had since 2017.
He's still got an 842 OPS and a 371 on base percentage.
He's got an ISO above 200.
Like, a bad
Muky Betz season is still better
than most players' best seasons.
And Muky Betts
is going to be a lot better than he has been
moving forward.
He's got a 272 babb.
So that alone tells you things
are going to get a lot better for Muky Betts, and things
are already pretty good for him.
I will point out that in Roto, Cedric
Mollins entering Tuesday was the sixth best
outfielder in that format.
Mookie Betz was outfielder 30, so much bigger
disparity there. This one's from Stephen. Why do pitchers get limited based on prior year's
innings? I would think actual pitches would be a better way to limit how much a pitcher
throws in a year. Example, pitcher A can throw 150 innings with 2250 pitches, but pitcher B
can throw 150 innings with 2850 pitches. That seems like a pretty big disparity for the same
amount of innings pitch. So I don't know how realistic that is, but in today's world, we judge
them the same.
I don't know.
I kind of...
Yeah, that would be...
That would be about as extreme...
That would be about...
That would be like a 10th percentile
pitches per inning and a 90th percentile
pitches per inning.
So it's not totally unreasonable,
even though it does seem a little.
It wouldn't surprise me if teams
actually do set innings caps
based on pitch count, though.
Like, we kind of see that.
Like, the way that pitchers are limited,
like while we talk about
ennings, a lot of the time it's like
either they don't want them to go third time
through the order or okay, this pitcher is at
80 pitches if they're a young pitcher.
I don't want them to go more than that.
Or you barely see
younger starting pitchers get over
100 pitches anymore in a start.
I think that's kind of the same thing.
It's like by design.
Yeah, I mean, I'm trying to find the right example.
Okay, Carlos Rodon.
You know, the point is
not all innings are the same.
I think is the point this guy's trying to make.
But it's also worth noting not all pitches are the same.
You know, Carlos Rodan has a 0.09-0 whip.
So he's working very quick innings for the most part.
And he hasn't been in a lot of tough situations.
You know, there is a difference between an inning where you throw 20 pitches and, you know,
have the bases loaded and an inning where you throw 12 pitches and, you know, don't allow any hits.
You know, one is going to be more short.
stressful even if there's only an eight pitch difference between the two.
So we tend to use innings as a shorthand just because it's a lot easier to wrangle 150
innings than 2,850 pitches or whatever the number might be.
I'm sure major league teams have much, much more sophisticated ways of tracking this stuff.
They're looking at biometric data.
They're looking at, you know, spin rate and velocity and,
the number of stressful pitches,
and I'm sure they've got all kinds of proprietary algorithms.
The innings thing, I think mostly comes from like a,
I think it's the Verducci effect is what it was referred to as,
where the 50 innings was kind of the magic number where injuries go up.
You know, I don't know if that still holds true anymore.
I've seen some criticism of the idea,
but it's mostly just that, you know,
innings increases are an easier to grasp a way of expressing
the concern about pitchers.
Yeah.
We like to think that we're smart,
but trust me,
organizations are way smarter than we are.
This last one's from Kevin Two Time.
Kevin Two Time.
Who would you rather have?
Aaron Nola or Framber Valdez?
Definitely Aaron Nola.
As good as Framber Valdez is,
I don't think he has the upside,
but Nola does,
especially when it comes to strike.
For Chris, I am Frank,
we're going to wrap there.
We are going to leave you here.
This is one of the worst endings to a podcast that I have ever done for Chris.
I'm Frank DeGill for listening and watching fantasy baseball today.
We'll be back again tomorrow.
Oh, wow.
