Fantasy Baseball Today - German Perfect Game! Waiver Wire Decisions & Elly De La Cruz Trade Value (6/29 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: June 29, 2023

Domingo German just threw the 24th perfect game in baseball history (2:21)! ... Dane Dunning threw a near complete game (7:08). Add German or Dunning? ... What's going on with Cristian Javier (11:30)?... ... Add Kenta Maeda (17:25)? ... Let's address waiver wire hitter decisions (22:00)! Henry Davis or Francisco Alvarez moving forward? ... News (37:37): Aaron Judge played catch for the first time. ... What is Elly De La Cruz's trade value in redraft leagues (44:00)? ... We wrap up with leftovers, bullpen updates and streamers (58:55). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:03 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Perfection for Domingo Herma. Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday, June 29th.
Starting point is 00:00:34 Frank Stample joined by the Chris's Towers. and the Welsh. Today on the show, yes, there was a perfect game. Not sure that you're going to enjoy the analysis of it, but we'll break it down. Ellie De La Cruz will talk about his trade value. Lots of drama in the Twitter world, so we'll try to address it and see where we come out.
Starting point is 00:00:54 Tough players to rank and much more. Before we get started, please like this video and subscribe on YouTube if you haven't already. If you're listening on the audio side, download, follow, and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. You know the deal. There's only one place to start. Oh, my goodness gracious. Actually, before we actually talk about Domingo Hermann,
Starting point is 00:01:15 can we acknowledge that the Welsh is wearing the Oakland A's sell shirt? Just like so perfectly the team that Domingo Hermann throws the perfect game against. I love it. Frank, I was sitting here before you and I knew you'd put the tweet out, but then the perfect game was going and I was sitting here. And I instantly had this reaction where I went, oh my God, I had a listener friend randomly send me and I just opened this. box and I'm like, what is this green shirt? And it was a hat and it was the Oaklandish,
Starting point is 00:01:42 whatever hat. It was beautiful hat. And then I realized, oh, because my wife asked me, she's like, why do you have a shirt that says sell? And I'm like, oh, honey, you don't have time. Let me explain. And I have this beautiful sell shirt. I, when that pitch was caught and everyone was celebrating and you guys were probably all just getting excited, I ran downstairs, grabbed this shirt. And I was like, I am 100% wearing the cell shirt on the show. So anyone watching on the video, which you should be on YouTube. This is why I have this big bright. lime green shirt because what other team could be no hit by and perfect game by Domingo Hermann then the Oakland future Las Vegas athletics or whatever their
Starting point is 00:02:19 names will be and let's start exactly there obviously this is an amazing amazing accomplishment the 24th perfect game in MLB history Domingo Hermon at the Oakland A's 27 up 27 down nine strikeouts 17 swinging strikes on 99 pitches 12 of those came on the curveball which was obviously a devastating pitch for him today. And this is where the analysis is going to kind of flip on its head. Because when you think about it, from an actual fantasy perspective, how much does this one start mean, right?
Starting point is 00:02:52 His previous two starts, he allowed 15 earned runs. And we went out and we told everyone to drop him. And for those wondering, the advice that we give you, at least for me, that's the advice that I live by. I had Domingo Hermann and 12 team, head to head points, Tout Wars League. I dropped him. I dropped him this past week for Gavin Williams, who was pretty good too. But so I took my advice too. So if you're there kicking yourself, ah, I dropped Domingo Hermann. He had a perfect game. I did the same thing. I dropped him. Towers will start
Starting point is 00:03:21 with you. Your fantasy analysis of Domingo Romano's perfect game. Do you want the serious analysis or the trolling analysis first? You want to get the trolling analysis out of the way? Can I vote troll? Can I start with troll? And do it really like Mike's smile and be like super happy and like make everybody happy real quick. They're going to hate this. That sticky stuff was good tonight, boys. All right. Do you want the real analysis?
Starting point is 00:03:45 Oh, man. Yeah, let's see. That sticky stuff was good tonight, boys. Look, I don't, like, he lowered his ERA over the past three starts to 9.42. His ERA for the season stands at 4.54, I believe. His XERA is still right around 5. He's giving up a lot of hard contact. He'll occasionally go through these stretches where he gets a lot of swings and misses,
Starting point is 00:04:10 especially with his curveball. But overall, his strikeout rate is right around average. I don't think he's a particularly good pitcher. And the Yankees aren't such a good team anymore that it inflates his value. Like the one year that he had fantasy value. And even that year, he had a 403 ERA, but he had 18 wins. So it made up for it. So I just incredible accomplishment.
Starting point is 00:04:35 I just, I don't think there's anything actionable here. Yeah, look, Domingo Hermann's 65% rostered, so I think some people listened last week and they dropped him. Looks like he might be in line for two starts next week going up against the Baltimore Orioles and the Chicago Cubs. Both of those starts will be at home in Yankee Stadium. The problem with Domingo Hermann, as we just witnessed over his last three starts, is that there is a lot of volatility. When he's on, he can look amazing like he did on Wednesday night, but when he's off. he's really off and he gives up a lot of fly balls which can turn into home runs and it can snowball out of control.
Starting point is 00:05:11 So if you're someone who wants to take the shot on a volatile pitcher who could get you strikeouts, sure, that's something that Domingo Hermann is good at, then yeah, you can consider him as a two-star pitcher next week against the Orioles and the Cubs, but as much as it is an amazing accomplishment and I'm happy, it came from my Yankees, whatever, it doesn't really mean that much for fans.
Starting point is 00:05:31 To paraphrase someone in my Twitter mentions, you weren't dropping David Price for Philip Humber in 2012. You know, like David, Domingo Raman is probably, it's a better pitcher than Philip Humber. But perfect games are obviously a pitcher accomplishment. They are a team accomplishment as well. And they require a lot of things going right. This is something I've talked about with Luis Araya's a lot lately,
Starting point is 00:05:59 where like to hit, to even have a chance to hit 400, You've got to be an incredible hitter. You've also have to have a lot of things go your way. And that's how a perfect game works as well. It's not to take anything away from him, but it's just to say that moving forward, this doesn't change how I view him. All right.
Starting point is 00:06:17 Well, with that being said, Welsh, let's go over to your, oh my goodness gracious player of the night because it's another guy that we might be looking to pick up. Who is it? I hope not. By the way, I do think there is an actual item. I just want to point out.
Starting point is 00:06:28 I do think there is an actual item with Herman. Trade him like a roster. He did that. There's a fun, actionable item. And since we want to move on, I was going to like gaslight some stuff and be like, hey, let's talk about what the worst perfect game of all time was, because I pulled up the list and everything like that. And maybe was it the worst and anything like that. We can't.
Starting point is 00:06:44 It's pretty crazy when you look at the start to the average max or the average exit velocity on the pitches for the age, just like 84 and 86 miles per hour on the big pitches. Hermann gives up a 93 mile per hour average exit velocity on his fastball, and it was 86 in this game, so just insanely weak contact. But enough about that. I'm not looking for the hate tweets. I am looking at Dane Dunning, who went eight and two thirds tonight, and he is one of those just beautiful beasts that is completely contrary to his savant page, because you go and look at that savant page, and it doesn't do anything for you.
Starting point is 00:07:21 It ain't do nothing for you. It's all blue yet it's great numbers. I don't know if this is updated, but 269 ERA 1-1 whip on the season. And then in this start tonight, he was able to put out, I mean, the whiff numbers are really never necessarily there. But he had four pitches of double-digit usage. Vila was actually down, 24% whiff rate. All of it was done on the slider. 37% CSW for Dane Dunning so far.
Starting point is 00:07:48 And the guy hasn't had an over three and a half ERA this entire year. So he's just kind of like breaking expectations. across the board. Three straight quality starts. He's given up three or less earned runs in four straight starts all this month. And on the season, he has only had two starts
Starting point is 00:08:06 where he's given up for... Actually, that's only one. I looked at the month. One start of four or more earned runs. Dane Dunning has just been efficient across the board, not big strikeouts. And I think he's a guy that we need to start looking at. And unfortunately, Frank,
Starting point is 00:08:21 you're going to ask a very mean question that's going to get people riled up. So please ado, my friend. So Dane Dunning is 75% rostered and looks like he is also in line for two starts next week, up against the Houston Astros and at the Washington Nationals. Welsh, who would you rather have? Dane Dunning or Domingo Hermann for next week. You want to know an interesting thing?
Starting point is 00:08:43 I don't think this is updated, but Dane Dunning has an expected ERA almost double his full earned runs. It's actually worse than Domingo Herman. Now after both of these performances, things will update here. The K percentage is atrocious 14%. But at the end of the day, Domingo Hermann stuff was really fun there. Huge curveball usage. The strikeouts can kind of come and go, sticky stuff aside.
Starting point is 00:09:11 But I don't see a lot of redeeming factors. I mean, outside of this game, the five expected earned run average, barrel percentage, over 10% he's giving up. Where a guy like Dane Dunning, it's actually the second lowest barrel percentage he's giving up of his career. And I'm kind of a Dunning guy. You know, he's keeping the ball on the ground. He's not getting big strikeouts, but he's picking up wins.
Starting point is 00:09:34 Maybe these guys aren't that far apart at the end of the day. But, I mean, you want to talk about efficiency and getting through games and not getting blown up. If there's one thing Dane Dunning doesn't do, so he doesn't destroy you in any weird circumstance. He just kind of gets it going every single game. So I'm going to go with Dane Dunning on this. And I hate to do it coming off the perfect game. Is everybody in agreement? I would go with Armand.
Starting point is 00:09:55 I'll just default to I don't think either is particularly good so I'll default to the guy who at least has some strikeout upside. Although, you know, obviously Dunning had 10 today, so there's individual start upside. But overall, I think he's got 40 strikeouts in about 60 innings
Starting point is 00:10:12 since becoming a starter. I just, I would give the edge to Armand, but I think the likeliest outcome is we're telling everyone to drop them in two weeks anyway. Yeah. Yeah, I think that's probably right. The answer is I don't really love either of these pitchers long term.
Starting point is 00:10:27 Like there's going to be regression at some point for Dane Dunning. It's just a matter of when does it hit? This week we saw it hit for someone like Julio Taron, which we knew it would happen eventually, just when I kind of feel the same way about Dane Dunning. Crazy enough, the matchups for him, Houston being one of them, it's actually the two better matchups. So I'm probably leaning with Dane Dunning.
Starting point is 00:10:48 The answer. In a pointly, sure. If we can like just combine both of these pitchers, I think that they'd probably become a really good one, like one that gets whiffs and one that gets ground balls and whatever, limits hard contact. But yeah, I guess I'll lean with Dane Dunning, but not particularly interested in either one for fantasy. I like the idea of that. Like maybe you get like the sinker of Dane Dunning with the curve ball of Hermann and you can just make like a really solid. It's like the fantasy thing where everyone's like, well, I'll take the home run hitter.
Starting point is 00:11:15 Then I'll take the Belize and then I'll take, you know, Kyle Schwarber and I'll just make a great player out of both of them. This is the pitcher version of that. Yeah, we could stick with the alliteration too and just go, Domingo Dunning. That's what we're going with for next week. Towers, you're up. Oh, my goodness gracious, from Wednesday. Christian Javier, who there have been some red flags throughout the season
Starting point is 00:11:36 that people have remarked upon, but the results for the most part had been very good. And then the last four starts, things have really gone off the rails for him. He has six strikeouts in his last four starts, if my numbers are crucial. correct and I believe they are. He gave up six runs in four innings today. I don't know. I mean, that's not true. We have some pretty good ideas of what's gone wrong for Christian Javier,
Starting point is 00:12:04 and it starts with the fastball because the fastball, he's a high fastball usage pitcher, and he throws it 60% of the time. And it hasn't been nearly as effective as it was last season. The whiff rate, fairly similar, but the velocity down about 1.2 miles per hour. The spin rate down about a high. hundred RPMs, the movement profile has changed. This is something that, you know, Saras has talked about a lot.
Starting point is 00:12:28 And, you know, the, the angle that he throws the pitch at has changed. And the point is that he's still giving up a lot of fly balls. He's never going to get a lot of ground balls. That's not the type of pitcher he is. But the problem is he's traded flyd balls for line drives this season. And that's not a good trade. Fly balls can turn into. home runs, obviously, but generally speaking, when they don't, they're pretty productive
Starting point is 00:12:55 pitches for pitchers. And that has not been the case for Christian Javier. This season, his slider has also been much less effective. And that's a real problem when you have two pitches. Technically, he has four pitches, but he only throws two of them 90% of the time. So that's where things have gone wrong for Christian Javier. And I'm not 100% sure where what it looks like for him to turn it around because it's It's so clearly just that his fastball hasn't been as effective.
Starting point is 00:13:26 The fact that the velocities down, the spin rate, all that stuff, it could just be a mechanical tweak. It could be something that they just have to raise his arm slot and that'll get the pitch back. But this is what we mean when we talk about pitchers who don't throw three pitches. It's not that they can't be good. It's that the margin for error is extremely slim. And now the margin for error, every pitcher is extremely slim. So pitchers are really tough to predict. But if you've got one elite pitch and you only throw two, you've got a really tough time.
Starting point is 00:14:06 Christian Heavior right now doesn't have any elite pitches. And so he doesn't look like a particularly great pitcher for 17 expected ERA for the season now. Something also to maybe consider, and I think we've maybe talked about this before, but, you know, a two-pins. pitch pitcher in the new environment, something most of us probably didn't give enough attention to in a non-shift, quickly get your, you know, your pitch out. Everything's going faster. So many pitchers have talked about the disadvantage the pitch clock has been for them, particularly. So you take two more disadvantages going against these guys. And then you take a guy that is 90 plus percent two pitches. You've just kind of like click the meter of how small the margin for error is. Like it's so much. much more small. And you know, Spencer Strider has been the guy that has kind of bucked that trend, but he's even had, you know, some issues in here. It's like no two pitch pitcher really is truly safe. And I don't know if it's something that you just ding primary two pitch pitchers in the future just blanket wise. And you don't even look at necessarily the pitcher, but you just
Starting point is 00:15:08 knock them down a little bit of a notch or not. Probably going to take a couple years to look at that. But definitely the new environment is not helping these guys one bit. Yeah. Look, you guys basically hit on everything. I was going to highlight, you know, Javier hit the spin rate on his fastball is down over 100 RPM this year the slider whiff rate is down nine percentage points so you're right he's gone from two elite pitches to no elite pitches now I don't think it's impossible for him to get back on track and we said this many times before for a pitcher it can happen like that it can a switch can just flip look at Blake Snell who we'll talk about a little bit later on
Starting point is 00:15:45 or Dylan cease read Detmer's the way that those guys we didn't really know if it was coming or when it would come and they just did it. So it can happen that easily for Christian Javier. We just don't know when or if it's going to happen. I had him as part of a segment for later on, which for me is just tough players to rank right now. And I still have Christian Javier at SP20.
Starting point is 00:16:08 That was before the start happened on Wednesday night. But I can realistically see dropping him down to 28 or 29. I mean behind guys like Joe Musgrove and Tate. Tyler Glassdowne. I mean, Glassdown has kind of had his issues too, but it's like everybody else in that range, Nathan Evaldi has pitched well. Mitch Keller has pitched very well. I've dropped him down to 30. And that's, you know, I've got him just behind Logan Gilbert, who has his own issues. Exactly. Behind Blake Snell, obviously, given the run he's on behind George Kirby. I've got him behind Tyler Glassnow and Julio Reyes, who's coming back this week. But that's kind of a no man's land at pitcher. for me after that where it's like that's where you know we talk about the blob right and and i feel like that's uh... Javier's kind of part of the blob now where like i think in in the overall rankings he could be anywhere from let me see pitcher 31 is 120 in my overall rankings picture 45
Starting point is 00:17:14 is 166 so like there's not a lot it wouldn't take very much for him to move very far in that range. I want to get back into some Waverwire pitchers real quick. We spoke about Dane Dunning. We spoke about Domingo Hermann. Kentimaita, other name that is widely available. He was solid in Atlanta. It's not like he did anything amazing.
Starting point is 00:17:36 Two runs allowed over five innings pitched. Did have 14 swinging strikes on 82 pitches. Velocity up across the board there for Kentimajana, so that's a good sign for him. He's allowed just two earned runs total in his first two starts back. He's 13. 9% rostered. He looks like he only has one starts against the Royals next week. Welsh, what do you think about Kent Maida? Maybe you take him over both Dane Dunning and
Starting point is 00:18:00 Domingo Hermann. Oh, that's actually a pretty interesting one. I mean, K percentage, K percentage, I think works really in favor here. It's not like an elite K percentage, but only 5% walk rate for Mayeta so far. Expected ERA, I think works pretty well in his favor. With the matchup, Oh, so it's one start for Maida against the Royals or two for Dunning against who was it again, Houston and... At the Nationals. At the Nationals? I think I actually might take Dunning still in that, but Maida like singularly, I would take him. I think this has been a pretty good run.
Starting point is 00:18:35 I would go with Maeda over both of them. I guess season long I would go with him. All right. Do either of these names matter? Maybe more so for deeper leagues than anything else. Colby Allard pitched well in his spot start for the Braves. against the Minnesota Twins, and maybe he sticks around because the Brave sent down both Jared Schuster
Starting point is 00:18:52 and A.J. Smithschover recently. Kobe Allard, 4-2-3rd shutout with eight strikeouts, 14 swinging strikes on 71 pitches. Did change up his pitch mix a little bit here compared to what he was doing last year. And Zach Davies, this is one of those you can't predict baseball, Susan, type of things because Zach Davies, who, after seven shutout innings
Starting point is 00:19:14 against one of the best teams in baseball, Tampa Bay Rays has a 6.54 ERA. So who could have predicted that? Towers, do either of these names matter? Colby Allard, Zach Davies. I don't think so. I mean, Kobe Allard, his minor league numbers are still decent, but we've seen enough of him at the major league level,
Starting point is 00:19:34 232 career innings where he's been pretty disastrous. So no, I don't think there's much there. And same with Davies. Disastrous is the appropriate word for, for how his career has gone over the past couple of years as well. So, no, I don't think Kobe Aller or Zach Davies really matter. The one thing I'll say, if you're playing a 15-team Roto League or deeper and you, I would guess, somebody out there has just like a dead roster spot,
Starting point is 00:20:02 I might take a shot on Colby Aller just because he's pitching for a good team now and see where it goes, but he's not somebody I would want to throw in my lineup anytime soon. The one thing I would throw out there is it sounds like Mike Soroka is going to get another opportunity in the Braves rotation. Now, I don't know if that means Allard's gone, but he was like a last-minute call-up, from what I understand. He was like, I think he was actually confusingly in Minneapolis because they were their AAA, the Gwinnett Braves,
Starting point is 00:20:29 were playing the St. Paul Saints, and then flew to Atlanta to start. I think that was what happened. So, like, it was a very last-minute thing. Did I just hear you call him Mike Soroka Towers? Michael Soroka, excuse me. I was going to say that's, I was more worried that I got the, the twins, AAA affiliate wrong.
Starting point is 00:20:51 Did I, did I? Is that correct? Are they the St. Paul Saints? That, it sounds right. So I'll give you, uh, confidence. I'll give you a partial credit there. But, uh, right now on Rosser Resource, it does have Allard in there and Mike Soroka, you know, getting a start on Friday.
Starting point is 00:21:08 Michael, excuse me. Um, you know, maybe Max Fried is back somewhere, sometime after the All-Star break. So, uh, whatever. We'll see. Anyway, the point is we're talking about Colby Allard for too long. Yes, we are. Yes, is that cool? All right.
Starting point is 00:21:22 Let's take our first break when we return. We'll talk about some waiver wire hitter decisions. Ellie Dela Cruz's trade value. We'll do all of that right after this. Welcome back into fantasy baseball today. And a quick reminder to follow us on TikTok. If you haven't already at FBT pod or if you just go on the TikTok, TikTok app and just search FBT pod, we take some clips from the full length
Starting point is 00:21:46 podcast from the five minute podcast. We covered up with some highlights, some fun little anecdotes and short videos there. So if you do dabble on TikTok, follow us at FBT pod. Let's talk about some waiver wire hitter decisions and people are probably going to get tired of me talking about Ezekiel Duran. This is the third day in a row
Starting point is 00:22:06 that I'm bringing his name up, but the guy just keeps on hitting. He went two for four with his 11th Homer. And if you watch this Homer, a frozen rope that just snuck over the wall. 115.2 exit velocity, 349 feet. That's back-to-back games with the Homer. And I'm thinking
Starting point is 00:22:25 maybe his roster rate isn't going up enough because we're not telling people who to drop, right? They might have someone on their team. They figure, ah, I got to hold on to this player. So, I'm going to ask you guys some questions. Would you drop Jared Kelnick for Ezekiel Duran?
Starting point is 00:22:39 If you play in a three outfielder league, you know, more of a shaller format. What do you think? Kellnick for Duran. Yes. Updated my rankings today, Ezekiel Duran is ahead of Jared Keltnik. Let's go. Because you know that Ezekiel Duran has had eight games straight with a, not eight straight games,
Starting point is 00:22:58 but in his last eight games where he has registered a hit, he has not had less than two hits. Since the 17th, he has had two hits or more in every single game. He has been bonkers. This is Ezekiel Duran on so many levels, the roster flexibility, the way he's hitting the ball, the baseline that he is providing you, and the team has completely bought into him. And you look at the multi-hit thing. It is wild because June 18th, he had four hits, two zero, two-two-two-two, and two. He is an absolute hit machine who is right across the board on the baseball savant page. Everything's coming up, Ezekiel Duran.
Starting point is 00:23:42 I'm a big fan. and a lot of the expected on the line stuff as you guys have talked about have told the same story. Bye, Kelnick. The batting average for Duron, by the way, 322 with all those multiple hits, multiple hit games kind of stacking up recently,
Starting point is 00:23:55 a 919 OPS on the year for Duron. Towers, two for you, because I know that you like both of these players or have liked them in the past. John Carlos Stanton, who actually hit a home run on Wednesday, he's ice cold since coming back off the IL. And say it's Suzuki,
Starting point is 00:24:11 would you drop either or both for, Ezekiel Duran. I would probably not do that, but I can certainly understand why you would want to. And I can't say it's the wrong move with a lot of certainty, is the way I would put it. I think Ezekiel Duran is one of the most under-roastered players in fantasy right now. So I would hope I have players with less upside than Seizu Kizu Kyi or John Carlos Stanton, but I understand why you would want to do that. I think in a three outfielder league, especially if it's a points league, Stanton strikes out so much. I'd probably be a right doing that. Suzuki, I don't know,
Starting point is 00:24:53 man. I'm just a sucker for this guy. I look at his plate discipline. He still hits the ball hard. I still feel like it's going to happen for him. So I wouldn't drop Suzuki, but Stanton, Kelnick, I think I'd be all right, dropping either of those for Ezekiel Duran. Henry Davis, he went two for four with his second stolen base. He added two RBI. He has played nine games with the Pirates. He's batting 303, one homer, those two steals in 833 OPS early on. He's 68% rostered. Welsh, I'll throw this one your way. Somebody asked me on Twitter if they should drop Francisco Alvarez for Henry Davis, assuming this is a one-catcher league. Alvarez has really, really cooled off. What do you think about that? Ooh, that's a good one, especially with that
Starting point is 00:25:33 big power potential. I would be comfortable with it. I feel like people have been putting Alvarez in redraft as a must keep on all formats because of where the power went. But I also think he's kind of showing you who he is. He's a streaky bat overall 216 average, 202 expected batting average. The thing I really like about Henry Davis, and this is something that kept him as a top 100 prospect for me for so long when people were getting out on him was not just his ability to continuously hit, but the stolen bases. And he's doing that again. That's something I really, really love. Barrel percentage just about the same as Alvarez currently. Hard hit numbers, they're lacking right now.
Starting point is 00:26:12 There's just not enough data. But hey, 300 batting average, almost a 270, expected batting average, decent-ish walk rate, not a concerning strikeout rate. And I think he's going to kind of put everything across the board, five tools, and they're hitting him three. They're already putting him at three, which I think is a really key offensive spot.
Starting point is 00:26:30 Another little anecdotal thing I just throw out there, Indie Rodriguez, I don't know how much this is going to mean anything. Andy Rodriguez was always one of the big fears. He was put on the futures game roster on the infield. And I just wonder, oh, maybe there's not going to be some big weird thing to deal with those two as him being an infielder at the futures game. That's the interesting thing, because Henry Davis, has he caught at the major league level yet? I think he's only exclusively been playing the outfield. Yeah, he's played right field exclusively.
Starting point is 00:26:58 So, like, if nothing else, if you're trying to find a tiebreaker at the catcher position between Henry Davis and someone you're thinking about dropping, Henry Davis is going to play a lot more than most other catchers. So I think he's really valuable right now. And don't get me wrong, I still like Francisco Alvarez. He's still ranked inside of my top 12 catchers. But look at his OPS by month this season. 494 in April, 1030 in May, 5.43 here in June. It wouldn't surprise me if we get to July and he has another big month.
Starting point is 00:27:29 I think he's going to be one of those players where lots of strikeouts, but big power. And he's going to go through runs where he hits. It's a bunch of home runs, but maybe not the most consistent. Little tough, too, is a righty when you're hitting 1-18 against lefties. That split doesn't work very well in his favor. That's going to get you benched, and that doesn't play well into split platoons or anything like that. So, yeah, Henry Davis, he's the catcher-de-jure that you can go with in your current month of catcher streaming that I know people like to do.
Starting point is 00:27:59 Let's talk corner infield decisions here. Josh Bell has had a disastrous first season with the Guardians. He went 2 for 5 with a double, and his 8th home run has played better in the month of June. He's 61% rostered. He's got 7 home games next week. The other two names I was comparing him to, Carlos Santana went 2 for 4 with his 8th homer, also having a solid June. He's got 5 home runs in the month.
Starting point is 00:28:19 Garrett Cooper went 1 for 3 with his 10th homer, and it looks like he is heating back up here as well. Actually, all three of these names have seven games next week. Welsh, do you have a strong preference here? Josh Bell, Santana, Garrett Cooper. It's kind of like the, I don't know, boring high floor veteran crew, I guess you could say. I guess I would probably. My instant reaction was to go with Garrett Cooper.
Starting point is 00:28:45 I don't have a great feel for any one of these guys. I mean, the Guardian's offense just in general stink, so I don't really line to Josh Bell, even though he's the most rostered. Carlos Santana, I guess I tend to shy away from, though he has been pretty decent. But Garrett Cooper, I think, is the guy that I lean to the least owned. So that would be the pick I go with, I suppose.
Starting point is 00:29:04 But I don't like either of them. I don't like either of the three. Let's talk about two outfielders here. Probably looking at these guys in five outfielder leagues. And I don't know why people continue to try and like poke the bear that is Tommy Fam. Like haven't we learned by now? It's like Jock Peterson messing with Tommy Fam. You get smacked up in your fantasy football league.
Starting point is 00:29:23 And it's like Twitter drama with Tommy Fam. What does he do? He goes out. He gets angry. Three for three with a sock and a shoe. his eighth home run, his ninth steal of the season. The expected stats are off the charts. The quality of contact has been amazing for Tommy fan this year.
Starting point is 00:29:40 Still only 21% rostered. The other name is T.J. Friedel, who he's such a tough player to evaluate because his quality of contact is so bad. He's the complete opposite, but he's playing so well for the Cincinnati Reds. Three for five with a home run and two steals, a sock and two shoes. He is up to his sixth home run. 14 steals now. He leads to Cincinnati Reds.
Starting point is 00:30:05 He's betting 320 in 886 OPS, 44% rostered. Towers. We're looking at five outfieler leagues here. Tommy Fam or T.J. Friedel. Who are you leading? I looked up something. So I, as you guys did, I looked at Tommy Fam's Twitter page today
Starting point is 00:30:23 when he yelled at a fantasy baseball analyst. It was very funny. Which, too, by the way, just out of pocket out of nowhere. It was like he definitely put someone in his place and everyone was like, whoa. It was a weird thing. Either way, his previous tweet to that was from April 3rd. And he was talking about somebody asked him about the vision problem that he has, which is known as Karatakonis, I believe.
Starting point is 00:30:51 I'm pronouncing that correctly. And apparently he's using new contact lenses, like a new type of technology. for because he said, I have great visual acuity, but don't play well with sclerols, which is apparently a type of contact lens. But he's using a new type. This was something that some Mets beatwriters talked about at the beginning of the season as well. And Tommy Fam has famously struggled with his eyesight throughout his career. It was a big issue for him back when he was in St. Louis.
Starting point is 00:31:21 He would go through these stretches where he just couldn't see. And so maybe there's something there. You know, he is putting up the best expected numbers of his career. He's always put up very good ones, but, you know, he's taking it to another level lately. And he's pretty much playing every day now. So, yeah, I think Tommy Fam's the way to go here. All right. Any thoughts on T.J. Friedel?
Starting point is 00:31:45 Well, it'll throw it your way. It feels like every time we talk up T.J. Frito, we're just like, eh, you know, he doesn't play every day and doesn't hit the ball hard. But he's just doing it. He's doing all the things. I kind of like T.J. Friedel in this one a little bit. There's also a part of hearing Cohen talk about like, you know, if the team is not where they need to be, you're going to trade pieces. Well, Tommy fan would be instantly someone you get out of here and what does that end up doing.
Starting point is 00:32:11 You know, I mean, I got this sign behind me if anyone has noticed my CES please sign back here. You know, if he comes up, he does potentially alter something, especially if they did decide to work him in a corner outfield spot or the D.H. is gone. And that just muddies everything. then you could get back to being frustrated about what the playing time is. But yeah, he's odd because he's the anti Tommy Fam from the baseball savant page. It looks bad. It's just pretty horrid. He doesn't strike out and stuff, but everything else is not great.
Starting point is 00:32:39 Expected batting average is over 50 points lower than where he is. It's bad, hard hit. But at the same time, it's almost a 10% walk rate, an under 20% K rate. The guy steals like crazy. It's a good ballpark environment. I kind of think there's maybe a little bit more. staying power with T.J. Friedel, but if Tommy Fan keeps going at this rate, which, by the way, he has increased his batting average every month, his OPS, his OBP, everything has increased as he's
Starting point is 00:33:06 gone on the year. He's getting better. If he keeps going at this rate, it's going to be completely wrong because Tommy Fam's going to be a 2020 guy. There's just something about T.J. Friedel with me that I feel like he can pull a 1530 out of his hat in Cincinnati if he still gets at playing time. So, you know, baseball savant or not, I kind of kind of tiny bit. T.J. Friedel in here, but the answer is probably Tommy Fam. Hey, that's why we asked the questions, right? I'll break the tie. It is really close. I'll go with the player that is not only producing, but has the underlying number, numbers to support him as well. So I'll lean with Tommy Fan, but I think both of these guys
Starting point is 00:33:40 should be rostered in five outfielder league. So if you play in a 10 or 12 team roto, I think both of these outfielders should be rostered in those formats. A quick update on Jordan Westberg. He has been playing very well. So far, his first three games, he went two for five with a double, a run, and an RBI. on Wednesday. And so far, again, in those three games, five hits, two runs, two RBI. He's 53% rostered. He's got seven road games next week, four coming in Yankee Stadium, so that can't hurt either. We also just wanted to get your general thoughts. We haven't had you on since Jordan Westberg got called up. 53% rostered. Is this a guy that needs to be rostered in all
Starting point is 00:34:19 formats, even like 10-team points leagues? Is he that type of prospect, that type of impact player? He's not quite that. I mean, hey, snapshot, I'll take Matt McLean over Jordan Westberg, Twitter. I will also go with that with the rest of the crew here. But I do think Jordan Westberg is someone that I am trying to facilitate on my roster in most cases because he has great bat to ball skills. You guys are seeing that. It's only like a couple games, of course, but, you know, 70% hard hit rate.
Starting point is 00:34:46 He's hitting 98 on average against fastballs right now. He also, you could just kind of see in the at-bats. He's able to get inside. No one's able to cheat on him or get him inside. He's turning on balls. He's pushing him opposite field. He just makes really great contact. And the guy was near the league lead in the minors in homers.
Starting point is 00:35:03 He doesn't steal a whole bunch, but he is going to provide a big bat at second base. So yes, in almost every instance, I would try to go in roster Jordan Westberg. At the expense of probably some named players that you guys might even disagree with, but not at Matt McLean, which was the Twitter. conversation. I will clearly take Matt McLean because you would you would jump for joy if
Starting point is 00:35:28 Jordan Westberg became Matt McLean and it would be without the stolen basis. Yeah, it'd be one thing of Westberg had been like dramatically better in the minors than McLean or was younger. But given that Westberg's 40 games behind McLean, you just take the guy who's already doing it. I think Westberg versus Royce Lewis is a really good question for redraft. I don't know if you guys have a strong feel either way. I'm more confident. in Royce Lewis's bat, but I could, I could see the playing time concerns about Lewis leaning towards Westbergs. So this comes also down to, I think, like, categories you're chasing. I actually am a little bit more confident in Jordan Westberg's bat, but he doesn't steal.
Starting point is 00:36:13 Royce Lewis doesn't walk, which I don't like. And I think that's going to limit him. Jordan Westberg has not struck out and he's got a 20 percent. Again, it's only a couple of games, But like he's walking, he's not striking out. I think the floor offensively is better for Westberg, except there's more stolen bases with Royce Lewis. And you could look at playing time issues maybe across both of these players. But I guess I'm talking myself into Westberg,
Starting point is 00:36:37 but this is a tough one. I haven't had a hard time dropping Royce Lewis for him. And that's what everybody is always asking. They're always asking these ridiculously tough. Like, would you drop this awesome prospect that you, I, you know, spend all this money on to get this other one? It's like, I'd rather drop something else. I'd rather do something else, but I get it.
Starting point is 00:36:51 But yeah, I think by a hair, rest of season, maybe a reactionary, I would actually go Westberg over Royce Lewis if I'm not chasing stolen bases. It is super close. I think I would stick with Royce Lewis or if they're just both available. I guess what I'm saying is that I would add Royce Lewis over Jordan Westberg. But I am also the person who very adamantly said that I would take Royce Lewis over Matt McLean when he got called up. And that hasn't worked out. So do with that, which you will. Last point on Jordan Westberg, he has played three. games. He started at second base for two of them, and he started at third base on Wednesday,
Starting point is 00:37:26 and he already has shortstop eligibility on CBS. So it could turn into one of these guys where you can move them all over your team, second base, third base shortstop for fantasy. Let's hit some news and notes before we take our final break. And Aaron Judge was spotted playing catch before Wednesday's game. Not much, but his first baseball activity, step in the right direction. We'll see where it goes from here. Uridan Alvarez hit off a tea and took soft toss on Wednesday. There's no exact timetable yet for his return to the Astros. He's been out since early June with a right oblique strain. U. Darvish might be pushed back once again in the Padre's rotation as he continues to battle
Starting point is 00:38:04 illness. Brian Reynolds said he's aiming to be activated off the IL on Friday. Clayton Kershaw is expected to make his next start after leaving his start early on Tuesday when asked why Kershaw left that start. He said, quote, didn't feel great overall. Just needed to come out right there. I don't know. Towers. Didn't feel good. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know. I mean, look, that's him and I are about the same age. I get that. I can feel that. You know, he's dealt with some back stuff. So that's like where my mind goes immediately. But I hope he's all right because he's pitched really well this year.
Starting point is 00:38:40 Shohay Otani is expected to make his next pitching start despite dealing with a cracked fingernail. Ryan Helsley was cleared to begin a throwing program. He's been out since June 12th with a forearm strain, and I will remain consistent in that I think Jordan Hicks is just going to run away with his job. Even if Ryan Helsley comes back, I think it's Jordan Hicks' job to lose. Salvador Perez was back in the lineup Wednesday
Starting point is 00:39:03 after undergoing a procedure on his eye earlier this week. Chris Dale will undergo an MRI on his left shoulder Thursday. He's on the 60-day IL and is not eligible to return until early, August. Kibrian Hayes was placed in the IL with lower back stiffness retroactive to June 25th. Michael Soroka could be called up to start Friday against the Marlins. He's 35% rostered. Towers any interest in Soroka who has pitched well since going back down to the minors. Yeah, that's what I was going to look up because it was a pretty rough start to the minor league rehab assignment.
Starting point is 00:39:38 And then obviously he didn't pitch super well at the major league level. I'm rooting for him I think it's very unlikely we see much of Michael Soroka making an impact at the major league level so no I would probably have to see it first
Starting point is 00:39:56 in three starts since getting sent down a 142 ERA a 0.79 whip with 18 strikeouts over 19 innings pitched for what it's worth if you wanted the numbers Dustin May played catch on Wednesday his first time throwing since going on the IL
Starting point is 00:40:11 on May 18th, he's been out with a right forearm strain and remains without a timetable. Jose Cantana will make another rehab start Friday at AAA, and if that outing goes well, he could be cleared to make his Mets debut sometime next week. Welsh, Jose Katana, 12% rostered, any interest, I would guess in deeper leagues. Deeper league. This is not a guy that I'm trying to stream. It's a purely, purely matchup based if I was chasing. This isn't someone I like to start a week with, so I'm. I would say no, not for me.
Starting point is 00:40:44 Fair enough. Michael Conforto left Wednesday's game with left hamstring tightness and, you know, the Welsh is on here. We had to get a Brandon Fott update. It'll be a Brandon Fott Thursday. He is confirmed to start against the Tampa Bay Rays. Not sure how that's gonna go.
Starting point is 00:40:59 Obviously, it's a pretty tough matchup. In five starts since getting sent back down to the miners, Fott had a 316 ERA, a 1.05 whip, 28 strikeouts to five walks, so, The ratio is great. The problem, he's still allowed five home runs and five starts. That's 1.75 home run per nine. Not going to get it done, especially.
Starting point is 00:41:19 He's doing that in the minors. What's going to happen when he comes back to the majors? Welsh, Brandon Fott, 25% rostered. Any league format or size that you're looking to pick him up in. Ooh, you're trying to bait me. You're trying to bait me on this show and get people all worked up about me and Brandon Fott. No Brandon Fott signed back here, though I did think of it. here's what I would do.
Starting point is 00:41:42 I would pick up Brandon Fott and I'd slap him on my bench because I would like to see what's going on with it. He was way more effective in the miners. The fastball looked like he was hitting his spots. I do wonder sometimes if there's just confidence issues. I heard a couple interesting interviews after one of the last few starts on him really talking with his catchers in ways that they were going to attack on game plans. And his command seems to be better.
Starting point is 00:42:09 He seems to be more confident. It is all going to be about getting swing and whiffs on that sweeper. It's the most important thing, but he's got to be able to let it look like it's coming in the zone, and he has to command the fastball. The problem is his Ray's team is totally a team that will just sit and wait and let him throw non-strike sweepers all day long and just destroy his fastball.
Starting point is 00:42:33 But the pedigree is still there, even though it looked so bad when he was up, the best advice I can give is you gotta see him do it before he gets going. If I had the ability, that's why I kind of like to pick him up, put him on the bench, just in case it does start working out, because Kyle Davies, as good at this start was, he's on the chopping block. Tommy Henry, chopping block. There is a theoretical rotation spot sitting out there for a guy like Brandon Fott,
Starting point is 00:42:59 but he has to be consistent. So this is a really important time to see what those changes are taking place. and I'd love to just kind of have him, but there's no chance in hell I'm starting him. I think it's good advice, too. It's just if you have a dead roster spot, it doesn't matter who you drop, pick him up before the start against Tampa Bay
Starting point is 00:43:18 because let's say he does go out and throws a quality start, six, seven strikeouts. Then, you know, everyone might be trying to clamor and pick him up or spend fab on him. So if you have the ability, pick him up before this start happens on Thursday. And if it goes well, then who knows, maybe you might have a little breakout pitcher
Starting point is 00:43:35 for the second half. Let's take our final break, and when we return, Ellie Dela Cruz's trade value, some other players that are tough to rank. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back, and a big thanks to everyone watching us live.
Starting point is 00:43:49 Over 500 people here hanging out. It's well past 1 a.m. Eastern Time, so we do appreciate you being here. Hit that like button and subscribe to the channel. If you haven't already. Ellie Dela Cruz's trade value. It's been a hot topic on Fantasy Baseball, Twitter, So let's kind of break it down.
Starting point is 00:44:06 What did he do on Wednesday? He went two for six with a run in RBI and his ninth stolen base. He's betting 301 with an 874 OPS. The warning signs in the profile right now, a 32% strikeout rate, a 63% ground ball rate. The expected numbers look terrible. I don't know how much stock I want to put into that. It's obviously been a small sample size.
Starting point is 00:44:28 And when he hits the ball, he does hit the ball really, really hard. Towers will start with you. I've heard, I've seen some things about people rating L.E.D. LaCruz as a top five player in fantasy baseball the rest of the season. A, first round pick. And when I hear something like that, it makes me think, well, if there's people out there that really think that, then you can sell high on L.A.D.A. Cruz and redraft leagues
Starting point is 00:44:54 and get back somebody who has a much more extensive track record. What would you do? I think L.A.O.C.C.R. is probably the hardest player to value. in fantasy right now because you can't give him, you can't trade him for what his likely future value is going to be.
Starting point is 00:45:14 And then this is, I emphasize likely future value because the likeliest outcome for L.A. de la Cruz is probably jazz chisholm. I don't know if that's too high or too low, but like, you went right into that tower. Volatile. So, yeah.
Starting point is 00:45:33 volatile but volatile batting average power speed probably more speed from Ellie but like the likeliest outcome the rest of this season is that he is something less than a super duper elite fantasy player what that means is in my updated trade values we'll should be out on Thursday, I have him ranked, I believe it's 39th overall in Roto. In head-to-head points, I actually think he's an obvious sell high candidate because just how much hype and, I don't know what the word I'm looking for is, hype is around him. He's unlikely to live up to that in a head-to-head points league just because of the strikeouts. It's just going to be really hard for him to do that.
Starting point is 00:46:23 But in a Roto league, there is a path to legitimate. at five category contributions. However, he has 21 played appearances against lefties so far this season. He has nine strikeouts with three hits. So that's a big red flag. The 32% strikeout rate, a relatively big flag. The 63% ground ball rate, relatively big flag. Big red flag.
Starting point is 00:46:48 None of those things are for sure going to remain big flags, and the strikeout rate was down to like 26% four days ago. So it's, it just depends on what you can get for him. If someone's willing to give you a top 20 player, I think you move Ellie Dela Cruz. I have him ranked 39th overall. I have Luis Robert 36th. If I have Ellie Dela Cruz and someone offers me Luis Robert, even though I have Luis Robert ranked ahead, I'm probably just saying no on that, right?
Starting point is 00:47:21 Like it's not enough of a win for me to give up on the potential that Ellie Dela Cruz has. if someone offers me Marcus Simeon for Elie Dela Cruz, I'm definitely doing that because Marcus Simeon has a higher floor and a similar ceiling, maybe not quite as high. If someone offers me Vladimir Guerrero Jr., I'm probably doing that. That one's a little tougher just because Ellie does have the power and speed combination, but I do think Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is going to be a borderline elite header moving forward.
Starting point is 00:47:56 So it's all to say that it just depends on what you're getting back from him. If you're not getting a top 20 player, you probably can't move him. But not trading L.A. Dela Cruz carries its own risk. There's risk either way because it's possible that he slows down and is more like O'Neill Cruz was last year. A useful player, a good player, a player who's going to be very, very exciting moving forward, but a player with obvious limitations in his skill set. So it's, it, it depend. And this is what makes fantasy so fun.
Starting point is 00:48:32 It's what makes it so tough. It's, there are many different directions that this L.A. Dela Cruz situation can go. Again, he could take off. He can turn out to be a first round pick for next season. He could just kind of be middle of the pack, whatever, just chug along, give you some speed, but the strikeouts are kind of an issue. He could, you know, maybe the strikeouts really become a problem.
Starting point is 00:48:52 And he just kind of falls flat on his face. I think that's within the range of outcomes as well. We just don't know. And that's what makes it pretty fun to evaluate and talk about in a situation like this. I mostly agree. So I have Ellie De La Cruz ranked just behind Manny Machado in my third base rankings,
Starting point is 00:49:08 just behind Francisco Lindor. Matarto's a really tough one. And like you said, to me, it's not, I don't think it's a big enough upgrade getting a guy like Lindor or Machado. I don't think I would take that. But if someone's like, hey, I'll give you
Starting point is 00:49:23 Bo Bichette or Bobby Witt Jr. or something like that. See, Bobby Witt's a tough one. I would do it. That's a tough one because Bobby Witt is starting to transition away from the phase that L.E. Dela Cruz is in where he's starting to transition
Starting point is 00:49:39 into a concrete player who you stop dreaming on. And that's not fair. Bobby Witt is what, 23 years old. He's still super talented. But we're getting close to a thousand plate appearances into his career, right? It's not to say he is who he
Starting point is 00:49:55 is, but it's to say that there's less projecting whereas L. How you're saying that, how you're saying, I didn't mean interrupt you, but how you're saying that is like he doesn't have, he doesn't have 12 homers and 23 stole the bases though. That's pretty impressive. Like that's, yeah, that's, it's underselling
Starting point is 00:50:11 him a bit and it's sort of a to a certain extent, it could be an L.E. De La Cruz could be anything he could even be Bobby Witt thing. Yeah, yeah, that's why I was making. Feels and this, I will admit, this is a feels thing, right? This is not a numbers thing. Bobby Witt, what Bobby Wood has done so far in his MLB career, feels like a median expectation for Allie Dala Cruz. And maybe that's over-emphasize, but maybe that's giving Ellie Dela Cruz more credit than he deserves.
Starting point is 00:50:43 Maybe I'm falling for the hype beast a little bit too much. I'm just trying to get it, make it so the people in the comments stop yelling at me. They're never going to stop. But yeah, I, that's how that feels. Like, I think I would do Bobby Witt for Ellie Dela Cruz, but I wouldn't feel outstanding about it. I would do it. And with that, Welsh, your thoughts?
Starting point is 00:51:10 Where do you kind of fall on the Ellie Dela Cruz redraft value? Because I know you can hit on this, too, if you want. I mean, from a dynasty asset perspective, I'm sure Ellie is probably treated as like a top 10, top five player moving forward. There's number one prospect in my mind. I mean, our buddy Joe Rico had this tweet out. And it's funny because it was like,
Starting point is 00:51:28 these are the guys I would only trade Ellie for. And I don't agree because it was redraft. But those names, it's like, that's kind of the short list of what you would do in Dynasty, outside of Marcus Simeon. But it was like, you know, Carol and Tatis and stuff like that. Like this is not only the asset that we know,
Starting point is 00:51:43 but the asset of who he could be. Ellie has the value of a top 12 fantasy player in Dynasty. But redraft, I mean, I was one of the first to kind of start this up to say, hey, listen, people are going nuts on L.A. Did Cruz for all the right reasons. I came on here and what I say, I was like, he's the top seven shortstop rest of season. I love him. But when we start talking about people wanting to move, you know, Spencer Strider and you're starting to talk about Juan Soto. You should listen to the hype because there are, yes, worrisome trends. But I also think in a rookie year, he's going to be a streaky player. He's hitting 130 against lefties. That's not good. He has a 62. percent ground ball rate. That's not good on top of all the things you've talked about. And I know this is kind of a cheap comp, but I went back and look because one of the closest players we can comp him to is O'Neill Cruz. And O'Neill Cruz in his first year went through plenty of the bumps that you guys know about. He had, it took him three months to get his ground ball rate to get under 50%. His strikeout rate was over 30% the first few months. The month that we lot and we're like,
Starting point is 00:52:48 oh my god oh neo cruz top two round player he's a 29% k rate so there are there are similarities that are not necessarily fair i agree lade lecruz is an incredibly elite player watched him for a long time skill sets i want to bet on but when people want to overpay i'm going to listen when a guy has a 60% ground ball rate and has an xb a much lower and has a 30% k rate and is hitting 170 130 against left. Like, those are things I'm going to listen to when I can get a top 20 player. So I do think you should listen to that. But I'm still coming on here and saying, yeah, he's massively valuable.
Starting point is 00:53:25 The rest of season projections on the bat X end up making him, I've jokingly said this. It turns him into what Corby and Carroll already has done. From this point in the season, the projections are like, you know, 16, 17 homers more and maybe 20 more stolen bases, which is great. And he'll be a huge fantasy asset. But he's not where Corbyn Carroll is. and there's volatility. And that's the key point. There's two points I want to make before we move on.
Starting point is 00:53:51 One, ranking him 39th or 40th or 50th, wherever, that's still giving him more credit than any projection system will. Absolutely. So what we're talking about is wide error bars and the likeliest outcome is he's probably more like the 100th best player the rest of the way or the 70th best player the rest of the way. But, and this gets to the other point, it's fun to be. able to dream. And it's fun to have a player like Ali Dela Cruz on your team. And if he hits, more so than any other player in his range in the trade values, if he hits his 90th percentile
Starting point is 00:54:28 outcome the rest of the way, you've got a really good chance of doing, I don't want to say win your league. I was going to say winning your league. Yeah. I think that's possible. Yes. Like I've got him right next to Mani Machado, who I think is awesome, high upside player. But maybe that's the wrong. I don't know. I wouldn't trade. I would not trade L.A. Dela Cruz to get Maticato. I would not do that trade. But if I had Manny Machado, I'm not sure I would give him up to get L.D. Chris. It's close. That's the heart. It's, it's, it's one where it's like the head versus the brain kind of thing. And, you know, the, the smart thing to do may not be. And then look, The playing projections, that's how you win seventh place in your league. You know, you need Ellie De La Cruz hitting his 90th percentile outcome to win your league, right?
Starting point is 00:55:19 Like, that's just how this game works. And so there might be value in buying, maybe this is buying low on Ellie De La Cruz. You know, it's also possible that he's just a top 20 player the rest of the way, and this is the lowest his value is going to be for the next decade. People could have made the same arguments about Corby and Carroll to trade, Though he had all the baseline things that worked in his favor outside of three weeks of not walking. But at the end of the day, what I would just say, would agree with all the people to get mad about it, it's not fun to trade L.A. Daly-Cruz.
Starting point is 00:55:49 Of course, in fantasy. Sometimes you want to have fun. Sometimes you want to be the guy that got the guy that off the wire that ended up being top 15. Cool. But the analyst side, the safe play says, hey, there's some stuff that doesn't work out here. And if you can get a top 25 overall player, you should probably listen without being screamed out. Let's put a bow on this conversation. We got an email that I thought was really interesting
Starting point is 00:56:11 from a listener named Bodie, and he's looking to stash a minor league player in a Keeper League, and he asked, who is next year's L.E. Dela Cruz? And I know we get into trouble every year. Who is this year's blank? Who is this year's blank? I highly doubt that there are any six-foot-five freak athletes in the minors that are going to come up and hit the ball 120 miles per hour.
Starting point is 00:56:32 But Welsh, what I would like to ask you is, Who is an exciting, toolsy prospect who could potentially gain a lot of hype by next season and be a contributor for fantasy baseball? That's how I would like to frame the question. Okay. Well, there actually is a guy that jumped to my mind that has a physical attribute similar to Ellie if you wanted to. And he's in AA. He used to be a Padre. His name is James Wood.
Starting point is 00:56:57 That's exactly. I'm literally looking at his baseball reference page right now. James Wood, I've seen since he was younger, huge hard hit. numbers, 12 homers, 13 stolen bases this year, a 269 average. He hit 313 last year, 12 homers, 20 stolen bases. Cape issues are not as big. He's the best physical body comp that I could give that has some of those same like, oh my God, he just hit 117 and he just stole two bases and hit a homer.
Starting point is 00:57:27 That's probably that guy, though I think there are bigger warts with James Wood than there are with Ellie just in getting up to game speed and stuff. But as far as like if you're looking, you know, from a hype perspective, I actually think the hype perspective might be the Jackson's. Jackson Holiday and Jackson Churio. Those are the two big guys. Jackson Holiday is going to finish this year at AA, which is insane. And that puts him on target to be someone that the Orioles can consider next year. They just got so many awesome guys. That kind of puts a wrinkle in it. They got Westberg and all that. So that would be the guy that I think would create this type of buzz. It would be Jackson Holiday. Jackson Churier. will be up next year. And I actually think Jackson Churio is the best player to name in this because he's going to put a big hard hit stuff. He actually has some strikeout issues that he might just overcome early on
Starting point is 00:58:16 and gets people excited. The only other one I'm going to throw at you and these are kind of in that same general vicinity is Junior Camerro. But the Rays really have held down players a bunch and he just hit AA. I think he finishes double A the rest of the year. They just don't like to push it.
Starting point is 00:58:34 So he'd be at the bottom of the list. So again, you want the physical, it's James Wood. You want the hype. It's Jackson Holiday. And he might be the best of all of them. But Jackson Churio, I think, might represent everything that we're going through. And if you ask me, who do I want out of all these guys? I want Jackson Holiday of those players.
Starting point is 00:58:50 All right. Well, let's wrap up with a few leftovers here. Obviously, we're not going to get to the tough players to rank. I thought the L.A. Dela-Daler Cruz conversation was well worth it. And obviously, a fun one to have. but we'll do the players to rank tomorrow. It's a little bit of a smaller slate there on Thursday afternoon. Just two pitchers I wanted to highlight here.
Starting point is 00:59:11 You know, it was a pitching duel. You know what that means. Welsh, were you a Yu-Gi-O guy at any point in your life? No, I don't even understand Yu-Gi-O or pro-k. I feel bad because I'm a total nerd. It's just the only nerd thing I didn't go with. It's fine. It's fine. We'll allow it for now.
Starting point is 00:59:32 But you've got to do your homework. Now, There was a pitching duel that I just wanted to highlight both of these guys. Obviously, it's very late in the podcast. So for the Blake Snell fantasy managers out there and the Mitch Keller fantasy managers, I do apologize. But Snell, it's what, four straight double-digit strikeout starts in a row. Six innings, two runs aloud, 10 strikeouts with 20 swinging strikes on 102 pitches at the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Starting point is 00:59:57 Obviously, it's a pretty good matchup there for him. On the other side, Mitch Keller actually out-duled Blake Snell, six innings of one. one run ball, five strikeouts for him, just three swinging strikes. That's now, I know Mitch Keller is not a big whiff guy, but that is five straight starts with single digit swinging strikes for Mitch Keller. So something that stood out there for me. Towers, any thoughts on, well, here you go, Welsh, any thoughts on Blake Snell and Mitch Keller in, you know, two great starts here? I'm a sucker for my guy, Blake I'll let Towers comment on it, but I'm always a sucker from my boy Blake Snell loves seeing him succeed. The change up despite all of fantasy baseball not
Starting point is 01:00:39 wanting it to happen is happening and I think it's hard to ignore his success with a kind of a depreciating offense I suppose with the Padres that just has to pick it back up. He has been one of the low you know, him and Tatis have been the big bright spots there. I'm all for Snell being able to maintain this. I wanted to buy him early on. It's impossible to buy him now but Towers, do you feel negative about Keller or Snell right now? No, no. I am still on the Blake Snell's a random number generator, and there will be bad starts
Starting point is 01:01:14 along the way, and you just ride it and don't try to, don't buy, don't sell, just ride it. Mitch Keller, the lack of streaming strikes is like the case against him being a top 12 pitcher, I guess, but I don't really think that's a case against him, right? Like if he's just the 25th best pitcher in fantasy or whatever it is because he doesn't get a lot of strikeouts, I think that's perfectly fine. I'm not too worried about it because he has become very, very good at limiting hard contact. You saw that in this game. Three hard hits allowed, 85.2 mile per hour average exit velocity over the last couple of seasons.
Starting point is 01:01:55 That was something that he's really worked on and gotten better at is limiting. quality of contact and you know now that's a real strength in his game so I think even with the strikeouts you know he's probably more like an average strikeout guy uh I think he's still going to be pretty good moving forward all right the call to the bullpen a few updates here for the braves rice Liglaclius struck out two for his 13 save for the nationals hunter harvey struck out two for his sixth save and he's only 14 percent rostered certainly looks like the go-to guy for the national so if you are looking for saves in a deeper league, Hunter Harvey could be out there. For the Brewers, Devin Williams picked up his 15th for the Astros. Ryan Presley also picked up his 15th. For the Cardinals,
Starting point is 01:02:39 Giovanni Gagos, this guy could do no right this year. I feel so bad. He got the eighth inning with a two-run lead. He gave up five runs on two homers, further entrenching Jordan Hicks in that job, in my opinion. For the Marlins, AJ Puck got the final two outs for his 12th save. For the the raise. Pete Fairbanks walked one but picked up his ninth save and for your Arizona Diamondbacks only because the Welsh is on Scott McGuff. He got the ninth inning with a two-run lead. What did he do? He gave up three runs on four hits. He took his fourth blown save and his sixth loss of the season. He'd been pitching so well for so long, but he knew the Welsh was going to be on the podcast. And so he was like, I've got to cause some kind of drama. Well, it was redemption. It was just redemption.
Starting point is 01:03:25 because I got flack about last week not acknowledging how insane he was in June and just flippantly being like, listen, I've watched all these games, I can tell you it's not going to go. He had been amazing. Someone hit me up about it. And then perfect, perfect,
Starting point is 01:03:40 he goes and gives up the three earned runs back to the rotation, we will. He'll get another shot. But like I said, Castro, Chafin, McGuff, it's all turning. It was just a little redemption for your boy the Welsh. The way that the Diamondbacks are playing,
Starting point is 01:03:53 though, right now, The real answer is their saves leader for the rest of the season probably isn't on their roster yet. 100%. I would imagine. I completely agree. They're going to probably make a move at some point. Let's wrap up with to stream or not to stream. And we'll start with Thursday.
Starting point is 01:04:09 And looking up and down the list, who did we mention yesterday? I think it was Clark Schmidt at the Oakland A's sell the team. Feel better about that one already. Kyle Hendricks versus the Phillies is okay There are a handful today that I like Except for their matchups Like Reese Olson at Texas I can't do it
Starting point is 01:04:33 Could you be a masochist and go she in Had Colorado? Yeah like she and at Colorado I could see it going well But I can't bring myself to start him That's the one I like No I wouldn't do it either And Brandon fought against Tampa Bay same thing
Starting point is 01:04:46 So yeah I want to keep an eye all those guys, but if I'm actually streaming, it's probably Clark Schmidt. Say it. Cahedrichs. Say it. Yeah, maybe Kyle Hendricks, maybe J.P. France, but I don't love any of them. All right. On Friday, who do we have here?
Starting point is 01:05:06 Well, a similar situation. Griffin Canning is pitching well, but that timeback's offense is pretty scary, so. Is Hogan Harris actually starting? I saw they used an opener, which makes it a little tougher to use the to trust, at least in a points league for streaming because he wouldn't have a quality start. It says that he's starting, but I usually use ESPN for the matchups and they're kind of liberal. Let me make sure.
Starting point is 01:05:30 These are bad. These are bad. I don't want any of these. I really, I truly don't want to. I wouldn't want to mess in and try to eat whether Token Harris, Griffin Canny. I mean, canning might be the best, but that errors, like you said, the Diamondbacks offense. No, thanks, Liberator with the game. I just, I wouldn't want to go anywhere near any of these players right now.
Starting point is 01:05:48 Hogan Harris has been used as they've used an opener twice in his last six appearances. Stream this weekend. If I have to choose three, which again, I'm just going to tell you, you should not start these players. Griffin Canning versus the debacks, Josiah Gray at the Phillies, and Dean Kramer versus the twins. We are going to wrap there for the Chris's. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify.
Starting point is 01:06:16 We'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.

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