Fantasy Baseball Today - Gerrit Cole Injury Scare! How To Draft From Each Pick In The First Round (3/12 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 12, 2024

Uh oh, Gerrit Cole is getting an MRI on his right elbow (2:15). ... What happens next with the Yankees (10:14)? ... Aaron Judge is also beat up (12:00). ... News (18:25): Lucas Giolito is having seas...on-ending surgery. ... Spencer Strider, Triston McKenzie and other spring training standouts from Monday (26:45). ... How do we construct our teams with a top-four pick in a Roto/categories league (34:42)? ... How do things change in a H2H points league (43:14)? ... How do we handle a Roto draft after Acuña, Witt, Rodriguez and Carroll are off the board (48:45)? ... How to handle a mid first-round pick in a H2H points league (55:11). ... Start hitter-hitter with a late first-round pick in a Roto league (59:15)? ... What about in H2H points (1:06:20)?  Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:03 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Hey there, welcome into Tampaigns Day on Tuesday, March 12th. I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, we've got ourselves a little strategy talk,
Starting point is 00:00:37 how to draft from each slot. So picks 1 through 4, 5 through 8, and 9 through 12. We'll talk about how we look to construct our teams through the first three rounds of drafts. And many people have asked for a segment or an exercise similar to this, so we will do it a little bit later on. Plus, more injuries this time to my beloved New York Yankees.
Starting point is 00:00:57 Let me set the stage and build the drama for everybody. I had a late night Sunday night. We had the podcast. I had to edit it. It's a right sleeper's 2.0. entirely my fault for leaving it to the last minute. So I slept in on Monday and I woke up not only to news that Aaron Judge is quote, mid-spring beat up,
Starting point is 00:01:18 but that Garrett Cole will undergo an MRI on his right elbow. And so that is where we will start today's show. Garrick Cole, again, an MRI on the right elbow. He's been having difficulty bouncing back from his throwing this spring. We didn't get a prognosis for Cole as of Monday night. And I saw one report. We probably won't get one on Tuesday. either. Probably not going to get one on Tuesday. That's right. Apparently he's slated for multiple
Starting point is 00:01:41 opinions regarding the course of treatment. Cole is of course coming off his first Syung Award and has thrown the most innings in baseball since 2017. He's currently a borderline first round pick in ADP, the SP2 off the board behind Spencer Strider. This might be an impossible question to answer, but Scott will start with you. Also, I'm sorry, I know you have them on your tout worst team, Scott, so There's a lot going on. Yeah, kind of built the whole Tower Wars team around him. Yeah, that's... I'm sorry, dude.
Starting point is 00:02:14 I already didn't like that team's chances of winning the whole thing. Okay, maybe... It's okay. You got no L.V. Marte. Let's get into the actual question, I guess. For anyone drafting over the next couple of days, Scott, what do you do with Garrick-Col? Push back your draft.
Starting point is 00:02:31 Probably. That's the best answer because, like, this is too... This is too critical of a player. I mean, the second best pitcher by most everybody's ranking, some might have had him number one. And we're just, his value is totally up in the air for the next couple. Like, it's totally arbitrary where I say you should draft him in the next couple days before we find out what the actual diagnosis is for the elbow. So if you can, if it's at all possible, I think you should just push it back. if it isn't possible, I would not draft Garrick Cole until round six is what I would say.
Starting point is 00:03:09 And I think the deeper your league is, you push him down further from there. And I'm not saying I absolutely would draft him if he's in round six. That's the first point where I think about drafting him and I'd weigh what else is there and what I already have. And he could be a huge value in round six or he could be a total waste to pick in round six. But that seems like about the breaking point because that's where you start to see like Grayson Rodriguez and Yuri Perez. So you already get into some pitcher with pitchers with downside risk. And so that's why I chose that part of the rankings to start thinking about Garrick Cole. Probably what would happen is everybody, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:03:50 Chris, you actually did a draft tonight. Where did he end up going? Yeah, I did the FSGA Champions League. And he was the 67th pick. And now I had initially. What's that? It's round six. Yeah, it was round five.
Starting point is 00:04:04 It's a 14 team league. So it was round five technically. But yeah, round six and a 12 team. My initial thought when I wrote about it this afternoon was to move him down to like 35th. And then I got to, I was picking on the end and I got Jose Ramirez and Matt Olson in the first and second round. It got back to me at what is that?
Starting point is 00:04:23 42nd overall. And Garik Cole was the clear top player on my rankings. And I took Pablo Lopez and Terrick Scoop. I just, I couldn't bring myself to it. Now, when he was coming back to me in the fifth round, and I saw him, I did add him to my cue. And I did think if he was there, I would have had to make a very, very tough decision on taking him.
Starting point is 00:04:47 That would have been 70th overall. I think I would have done it if he was there, even though it would have meant three straight starting pitchers in rounds three, four, and five. It would have meant no outfielder in my first five picks, but the upside thing. Like, yeah. It's like getting Ronald de Cunia for $40 in an NL only league.
Starting point is 00:05:07 Hey, hey, 45. No, you went for 40. I am more concerned about the Cole situation. I was always pretty optimistic about Acuna situation, just all the different details we were hearing about it. And we are hearing details with Cole's situation that are encouraging, not quite as, not quite as conclusive in my mind as what we were hearing about Acunia. but like, you know, just the general sentiment within the Yankees is that it's more of a precautionary.
Starting point is 00:05:38 I thought I silenced that. It was more of like a precautionary thing and they've done like strength testing with them and that's all come out fine. His velocity and location have been great this spring. He just, he's not, he's bouncing back in his own, the way he describes it. He's bouncing back more like he's thrown 100 pitches rather than the 45, 50, he's growing. And so, you know, it might be a very minor thing.
Starting point is 00:06:06 It might be shut him down for a week and still ready for opening day. And immediately we're back to drafting him at the round one, two turn. And of course, there's a mid-outcome here, mid-level outcome where he's. You know, the Kyle Braddish outcome, let's call it. That's on the worst end even. Like, it could be, it could be something even more minor than that, but sidelines Garrett Cole for the first. month of the season. And so he's on like the Kodaisanga timeline at that point.
Starting point is 00:06:35 And then I think round six, that is probably the appropriate place to draft him, even after the news comes out. But there is, of course, the ultimate downside case where he's having some kind of season-ending procedure or, gosh, what might be even worse is if, okay, torn UCL,
Starting point is 00:06:56 but he's going to try to rehabilitate it. And we don't know. If he's going to be able to do it. I mean, if there's a UCL tear, then you're not talking about a top 200 pick, even if he tries to pitch through it, right? Well, Braddish technically has a UCL tear, right? But Braddish is certainly not going inside the top 200.
Starting point is 00:07:17 No, he's not. He's not. Cole would go ahead of it. It just depends on the extent of it. I mean, the Orioles sound particularly optimistic about Kyle Bradish's UCL issue, and it is worth noting. I mean, there are more pitchers than we probably even know about pitching with some degree of UCL damage. All of them. Probably.
Starting point is 00:07:39 Yeah. Nobody ever talks about Zach Gallin who had this issue in 2021, I believe it was. And I thought going into 2020, okay, clearly this guy's destined for Tommy Johnson. It hasn't happened. He's pitched like an ace for the most part since then. So it's not, you know, just because those letters are mentioned, if they are mentioned for the Cole diagnosis, you know, it's not immediately a doomsday sort of thing.
Starting point is 00:08:08 For the record, Braddish and Khoda Senga both went around 240 in my draft tonight. So I think 200-ish if Cole was on a similar timetable. Looking at NFBC ADP in the month of March, Kodi Senga is the 206th player off the board on average, and Kyle Bradish is 333. there's no aisle spots in the NFBC, so obviously that factors in as well. I mean,
Starting point is 00:08:34 the Senga timeline is late April early May. If Cole is projected late April or early May, let's say it's not so much a Braddish UCL issue. It's something else. Elbow inflammation or whatever. Maybe it's 150. I would still think top 100. I was going to say around six range.
Starting point is 00:08:53 That's where it would feel appropriate to me. I think half of where Senga is going. If we know that Cole is going to miss a month and, you know, it is confirmed that it's something to do with the UCL because obviously there is still a lot of risk that, you know, something can pop back up with that. I would think it's around 100, but again, we're talking in ifs right now, and there's lots of different scenarios that can play out here.
Starting point is 00:09:15 So really, we're just kind of in wait and C mode with Garrick Cole, but obviously this is pretty scary stuff. Anytime a pitcher is going for an MRI on his pitching elbow, what happens with the Yankees next, right? If this is a long-term injury for Garrick Cole, my guess is they're probably going to be in touch with Blake Snell, who they've been in touch with throughout the course of this offseason. So maybe something happens there. If not Snell, if they look to just kind of fill from within, this is not a good situation because they traded away a lot of pitching depth to acquire both Alex Verdugo and Juan Soto this offseason. So if they fill it from within, one of Luke Weaver, that Luke Weaver, that's right. Clayton Beater, Luis Heel, Will Warren, those are the names we're looking at. Hey, hey, man. Luis Heel looked ridiculous today.
Starting point is 00:10:04 He did. I don't know if you saw. He had 15 swings and misses on 49 pitches. Louis Heel's probably not very good in spite of that. He was a former top pitching prospect. Yeah, he was, well, you know, top pitching. Topish. Like, how did I miss that?
Starting point is 00:10:20 Okay, heel is GIL. You pronounced it heel, apparently. Okay. I said see. I said the name in my head, Gil. And so, Luis Gil. Okay.
Starting point is 00:10:30 Yeah, that makes sense. Yeah. They would have to sign someone, right? Like, you can't waste a year of Juan Soto on your team. There's no way you gave up all that for Wonsoto. You've got Aaron Judge.
Starting point is 00:10:43 Like, there's just, I can't see any way they go into the season with Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortez is their top two starting pitchers. It's just, it's a totally unviable strategy for a team that went all in for one set out. And we still don't know exactly what we're going to get from Carlos Rodhan either because he's been pretty rocky so far this spring as well. So again,
Starting point is 00:11:02 we're in wait and see mode with Garrick Cole who is getting an MRI done on his right elbow. Real quick on Aaron Judge, he's in again mid-spring beat up right now. Which, all right, whatever that means. Not expected to return until Wednesday. The Yankees didn't reveal what judge is dealing with, but we heard earlier this spring that judge's right big toe will require quote, constant maintenance for the remainder of of his career. This is pure speculation on my part. I don't know if that's what it is. Brian Hawk, the Yankees beat reporter for MLB.com,
Starting point is 00:11:32 specified that his toe has not been an issue, that that's not what it is. He's just, you know. I mean, the good news is the spring workload is way more difficult than the June workload, right? Right. Chris, have you moved judge down at all? So I was really, so I was picking 14th in this draft and I was really worried that I was going,
Starting point is 00:11:54 to have to make the judge decision. Because I've had him as a top 10 player. I've drafted him a ton. He's on my labor team. And I was really worried that I was going to have to make that call. And luckily, someone took him two spots ahead of me. So I didn't have to make the call because I don't know what I would have decided if Aaron Judge was there.
Starting point is 00:12:15 But I am going to move him down to the Jordan Alvarez tier. So it's like five. in my rankings overall, it's a dollar in auction value. So I don't want to overreact. But yeah, I think. But that matters. I mean, that's the difference between a late first and early second round pick. Yeah, I don't think I could take them in the first round right now.
Starting point is 00:12:40 Scott, same with you. Judge? Any concern? I don't know. I'm not reading that much into this. I think everybody gets, every player goes through a period of soreness in the middle of spring training as they're getting back into game shape.
Starting point is 00:12:53 and it doesn't sound like that big of a deal. I was already not thrilled to take Judge with a late first round pick, but I'm not more likely to avoid him based on this news. I think for me it's just that the gap between him and Yordon Alvarez and Jose Ramirez and Shoha Tani is small enough. That it's kind of looking for a reason to move him down.
Starting point is 00:13:20 I'd still take Judge over Yordon Alvarez. I think the injury, concerns are similar, but I mean, Judge. Judge more recently showed us he could stay healthy for a full season. Jordan Alvarez never has. And I think just the upside in general, right? Like, we've seen higher upside seasons from Aaron Judge than we have from Murdo on Alvarez as well. So I think that's another. The upside I think is comparable. But yeah, in terms of actual stats on the page, there's Alvarez hasn't had a season like Judges 2022. And one thing I do want to go back to with Garrett Cole just for a second, because I've seen some like, should
Starting point is 00:13:53 this move Spencer Strider up talk. And I've also seen like a lot of hype about this curveball. He got a couple of strikeouts with it today. It looks like a pretty good pitch. I just don't think there's anywhere Spencer Strider can go. I think he's in a tier of him of his own now, whereas I think it was a tier of two before. But I'm not looking to move Spencer Strider up at all with Garrett Cole going down.
Starting point is 00:14:18 I could see if like, yeah, I mean in my rankings I'm not going to, but if you are somebody who, like, I want to get one of those top pitchers, now you only have one choice. Yeah. Depending on how this goes with Cole. Like I said, it could be shut, maybe a shutdown, shut him down for a week and still be ready for opening day, in which case I don't think his value changes much either. All right, let's quickly promote a few things.
Starting point is 00:14:42 Make sure to subscribe to the FBT newsletter if you haven't already. CBSports.com slash newsletters. You click on that FBT logo, punch in your email address. It's easy as that. It's free. Chris sends it out every day. It puts a lot of work in, so make sure to sign up. You can scan the QR code if you're watching on YouTube.
Starting point is 00:14:57 That will take you right to the website as well. We have a live head-to-head categories mock draft. Tonight, when you're listening to this, Tuesday, March 12th at 9 p.m. Eastern Time on our YouTube channel. Come hang out and subscribe. YouTube.com slash fantasy baseball today. It will also be a two-part audio podcast. So even if you don't watch on YouTube,
Starting point is 00:15:17 you will still get it some way somehow. And a quick reminder here. that we would like to extend a warm welcome to the newest podcast in our CBS sports family. It's that time of year where everybody is craving hoops, but maybe not just on the college level. Beyond the Arc is a brand new show featuring daily NBA discussions with host John Gonzalez, Bill Ryder, and Ashley Nicole Moss, as well as regular appearances from NBA champion, Avery Johnson, download and follow Beyond the Arc wherever you find this podcast. Let's take our first break, and when we return, we get to the other.
Starting point is 00:15:51 other news and notes. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. The other news and notes outside of the Yankees, of course, Lucas Gileadau will undergo surgery on Tuesday to repair UCL damage in his right elbow and will miss the entire 2024 season. The Red Sox updated rotation features Brian Bayo, Nick Pavetta, Carter Crawford, Tanner Hauk, and Garrett Whitlock. They have been linked to Jordan Montgomery, but nothing has happened as of now. Ray's top prospect, Junior Cameraro, was optioned to minor league camp on Monday. The 20 year old will start at AAA. And we figured this was the case. Caminero's ADP is 224. Scott, when do you think we see Camerro back up with Tampa Bay?
Starting point is 00:16:35 I think pretty early. He's already used some, he's already gotten some at bats from last year. So it's not like, save him until September. They could still technically do that and then have him on opening day roster next year have him going for draft picks but there's less less room to operate there since he's already gotten sometime on the big league roster and I doubt they'd keep him down all year I think once attrition kicks in or maybe the isaq paredes bus scenario comes to to pass and his his extreme pull flyball tendencies don't play as well this year not much for him to fall back on I've made that case before then that would clear a path for common arrow but there's also
Starting point is 00:17:17 Also, Curtis Mead and Jonathan Aranda. I think Aranda pretty much has a spot with the DH as mostly what he'll play. So I don't think he's preventing Combinero from debuting too much, but Curtis Mead is older, and he has time in the majors too. And I don't know which of those would be first in line if there was an injury. Yeah, I went and looked back at their top prospects over the last five years. Shane McClanahan is the only one who made it to the majors without spending significant amount of time at AAA. This is just what the raise to. And McClainahan would have been at AAA if not for the pandemic season.
Starting point is 00:17:59 So they are probably the least aggressive team in baseball when it comes to promoting their top prospects. We've seen it for Mead and Kyle Manzardo and Jonathan Aranda and all these guys over the last year or so. So that's just what the rays do. I would expect at least a month down there. All right. Ronald Acuna took live batting practice again on Monday. Manager Brian Snicker said Acuna's right knee feels fine, and the club is just waiting for the medical staff to clear him to return. Corey Seeger took some light swings on Monday the first time
Starting point is 00:18:31 since he underwent sports hernia surgery back in January. We're still waiting to find out what his status will be for opening day. Sunny Gray completed a 20-pitch light bullpen session Monday with no issues. and is slated for a longer bullpen on Wednesday or Thursday. Josh Young is expected to play in the team's final two exhibition games, March 25th and 26th. He's been slowed by a left cash train. He suffered back in February. Chris, I know that you've kind of been aggressive on drafting Josh Young.
Starting point is 00:19:01 If he doesn't play any other spring games besides March 25th and 26th, do you think that he will be okay to play on opening day? I don't know. I guess the thing I would look back at is, is what happened when he came back from that thumb injury last season. Obviously, it was a different situation because that was midseason. It was in September. So I don't know if he got any minor league appearances.
Starting point is 00:19:27 And I'm trying to filibuster while I look it up. It looks like he did not do a rehab assignment last year. I think Corey Seeger did not do a rehab assignment when he missed a month or so early last season. So the Rangers seem willing to let guys return without a ton of. warm up. Given that it happened during spring training and he hasn't played
Starting point is 00:19:46 any games yet, maybe their view will be different this time, but it wouldn't shock me if Josh Young just was on the opening day
Starting point is 00:19:56 roster after a couple games. All right, Cedric Mullins, who tweaked his right hamstring last week, expects to return to Great Fruit League
Starting point is 00:20:03 play on Thursday. Edward Cabrera will undergo an MRI on his injured right shoulder, and if he lands on the IL, one of Max Meyer or Ryan Weathers
Starting point is 00:20:11 will step into the Marl Arlen's rotation. AJ Smith-Shawver was optioned to AAA on Monday. As expected, the Braves fifth starter job comes down to Ronaldo Lopez versus Bryce Elder. Alex Cobb could make his Cactus League debut as soon as Saturday. He underwent left hip surgery back in October. Scott, any interest in stashing Alex Cobb in leagues where, I don't know, you have three or more aisle spots, let's say.
Starting point is 00:20:37 He'd be pretty far down the list among injured players I'd want to stash. So, I don't know. It'd have to be a league where you go pretty deep into the pitching pool. I would imagine Lance McCullors is even further down that list. He underwent surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his right elbow and remove a bone spur last year. He said he's aiming to make his season debut in late June, early July. The guy had...
Starting point is 00:21:02 He had that one before. He has talent but has not been able to stay healthy. Yeah, I assume McCullors is behind Cobb, right? Priority-wise? Yeah. Okay. The pitchers appear to be set for the Dodgers Padres two game series in Korea. We'll get Tyler Glass Now versus U.
Starting point is 00:21:18 Darvish in game one and Yoshinobu Yamamoto versus Joe Muskrove in game two. And that will be how they open the domestic schedule as well. I think Dave Roberts said that today. So those guys will get an extra start for as long as Tyler Glass is able to stay healthy. So if your league is a head-to-head. league that includes the Korea series. And I know, oh, you get a triple start for those three guys for those guys. Yeah, you got three, you got a couple three star pitchers here for that first scoring period.
Starting point is 00:21:52 How are you handling that, Scott, in head to head leagues? Because my assumption all along was those two games obviously count in a roto league, but in head to head, it kind of feels awkward to start the scoring matchup that early and then kind of pick it up again the next week. I don't know. Most leagues aren't even going to draft until after the Korea series. So that'll decide it. And ones that already have drafted or have their drafts still to come before the Korea series.
Starting point is 00:22:19 Yeah, Roto leagues, there's no reason not to count it because you get a chance to set your lineup again. Head to head leagues, okay, the two-game series, Padres, Dodgers, that's not going to be its own matchup for head-to-head leagues, obviously. You could either include it with the short Thursday through Sunday, March 28th through April, whatever, April, March 31st, I guess. You could either include it with them as a shorter scoring period or you could include it, you know, that Thursday through Sunday with the first full Monday through Friday and then those two games in Korea into one long 19 day scoring period. The problem with if you're going to eat in either of those scenarios is that week between the Korea series and the full opening day, those line of us will be locked. And so you either have to just live with whatever
Starting point is 00:23:06 changes happen in that week or you have to be a super proactive commissioner. who's going to go in and manually make tweaks to people's lineups as they request them. So I imagine most head-to-head leagues are not going to count the Padres Dodgers series because it's just a lot of issues come up with that. In the two that are nearest and dearest to me, I am going to count them and just be a proactive commissioner. But I think that's the only way you can get away with doing it. Otherwise, you may have riots on your hands.
Starting point is 00:23:37 You could set it so that players don't lock until they. their games start, and that way only Padres and Dodgers would be locked. Which is how a lot of my leagues work. I guess you could do that, though, even in that scenario, rosters lock. So you couldn't, so any ad drops you make during that time wouldn't be, wouldn't it take effect to then be adjusted in your lineup. Yeah, it does get a little bit messy,
Starting point is 00:24:00 but I would agree with that. I think head-to-head leagues, you started on the normal domestic opening day, and then Roto leagues, obviously, you're counting every game anyway. so you would include those Dodgers and Padres games in Korea. Some quick spring training standouts from Monday, Spencer Shrider. We mentioned five shutout innings with nine strikeouts. His spring ERA is zero. His whip is 0.93.
Starting point is 00:24:24 He has 22 strikeouts over 14 innings. He looks awesome. Zach Wheeler threw three no-hit innings. He used a new splitter five times of his 47 pitches. So could be another weapon there for Zach Wheeler this season. Trista McKenzie threw three shutout innings with four strikeouts. He's made two starts this spring and has thrown five shutout innings total with six strikeouts. There's talent there.
Starting point is 00:24:46 It's just can Tristan McKenzie stay on the field and that remains to be seen. Joe Boyle through three innings, one hit, one run, five walks, two strikeouts. He now has eight walks over his last two starts. This is part of the downside, right, Scott? Joe Boyle. Yeah. I don't know of all my enthusiasm for him is going to die before opening day even happens. If he's going to walk five and three innings, that's more like who we saw
Starting point is 00:25:14 on the minors, obviously. And he's allowed to have a single start like that in spring training. But if it continues the rest of the way, he might not win the job, first of all. And I would not, you know, my hopes for him in fantasy would diminish, of course, because that's just too much downside risk for the whip and for everything else. Love the strikeout potential, though. Great stuff, Joe Boyle. Chris, your new stallions looked pretty good here on Monday. Trevor Rogers, three shutout innings with five
Starting point is 00:25:47 strikeouts to zero walks. Max Meyer through also three shutout with two strikeouts to one walk. We haven't talked much about Trevor Rogers. Obviously he had that breakout season a couple of years ago. Has dealt with like injuries and off-field stuff since then. It just hasn't worked out. Max
Starting point is 00:26:03 Meyer, all the potential in the world returning from Tommy John that he had, I think like 17 or 18 months ago. So it should be fully ready to go. Any late round interest in Rogers and or Meyer? I think they're both interesting. Rogers more so than Meyer just because I think he's more likely to be in the rotation. I kind of think the Marlins should just stick Max Meyer in the bullpen this season, but it does not sound like that's something that they're all that interested in doing. Whatever. I don't know. I would think that they would want to avoid another Yuri Perez situation where they
Starting point is 00:26:33 have to do something weird in the middle of the season to manage his innings. But I still think Trevor Rogers is more likely to be in the rotation for the Marlins than Max Meyer at this point I think it's probably pretty likely that Rogers is in the rotation and you know what really grinds my gears? There is baseball savant stack has data for every pitcher who pitched in that game tonight except for Trevor Rogers. I don't know it does, they do not, he got eight whiffs on 45 pitches. That's pretty good.
Starting point is 00:27:06 But they do not have the, the, the, velocity breakdown. He did not pitch in front of the stack cast data cameras in his first spring start. So I don't know what the velocity looks like. I've read reports that it's been pretty good. Like hitting 94-95 but don't have
Starting point is 00:27:22 much more to go on than that. But yeah, I think Rogers was decent last year. I think his injury was not to his throwing arm if I'm remembering correctly. I want to say it was like a right shoulder injury. I could think you're right. But it was like a
Starting point is 00:27:38 It just lasted for it. It just never went away. Yeah. So I was worried and I wrote about it in my latest spring training roundup that came out Monday about whether Trevor Rogers would be able to build up in time because this here on Monday was only his second spring start. He got 45 pitches. Yeah, he probably can. Ryan Weathers has looked so good that I'd hate for him to get left out. And Edward Cabrera may be fine.
Starting point is 00:28:07 or if he's not, I imagine Ryan Weathers would have priority over Max Meyer for Edward Cabrera's spot if we're assuming Rogers is in. But it's not a given, obviously. And look, Ryan Weathers has been pretty awful in the majors to this point, but he seems to be throwing harder. He's throwing more strikes this spring. Pitching breakouts sometimes come from the most unexpected places. And Weathers have looked really good. Rogers' injury was to his left biceps, by the way. Yes, yeah, I was going to mention that with him.
Starting point is 00:28:35 A couple of their standouts, Edwin D. has made his spring debut he struck out the side he looked like uh yeah seven whiffs on 14 pitches he's awesome a big day for Jackson Merrill who went three for four with his first spring homer he's now 11 for 32 with one homer and one steel he's making the roster he's probably gonna be up on opening day and Wyatt Langford went two for three with a double a walk and four runs scored he leads all of spring training with a 1300 OPS I think he's gonna be up on opening day but and every game he has like this it makes
Starting point is 00:29:07 harder to say otherwise. It still bothers me that they won't be able to play him in the outfield that much. It has to bother them, too. I think that, I hear what you're saying, Scott. I think he probably will DH more than anything else, but they can kind of give guys half days off, right? You can.
Starting point is 00:29:23 Give Adolos Garcia, you know, put him at DH one day, put Evan Carter at DH one day. Because he could Duran can play shortstop while, you know, Seeger's less than 100%. Like, I think there are ways to do it. There are ways to do it. It just, it would, If I am in charge of the Rangers, it would bother me.
Starting point is 00:29:40 Yeah. So I'm trying to look at it from that perspective. But yeah, I mean, I'd give him, I don't know, I guess I'd be, I guess I'm up to like 60 for 5% on Langford making the Rangers opening day roster. 75, Scott, 75. I'd put, I'd put Jackson Chorio at like 90 to 95. I'd put Jackson Holiday at like 80 to 85. Let's put Merrill Jackson Merrill. I wasn't want to say his name backwards.
Starting point is 00:30:06 Jackson Merrill at 75 and Wye Langford at 65. That's where I am, their chances of making the opening day roster. All right, let's take our final break when we return. How to draft from each part of the first round. It picks one to four, five to eight, and nine to twelve. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in, how to draft from each part of the first round. This is assuming a 12-team league.
Starting point is 00:30:31 And I realize this is not a perfect exercise because it is impossible to predict who will be available, but many people have requested that we do something like this and we've done it in previous years. So let's start with a top four pick and we will do this from both a Roto and a head-to-head-to-head points perspective. We will start with the Roto category side of things.
Starting point is 00:30:50 Both of you have Ronald de Cunia, Bobby Witt, Julio Rodriguez, and Corby and Carrel in your top four in some order. So if you have a top four pick, you're taking one of those guys, you're hoping to get 30 plus deals from Julio, 40 plus deals from the other three. No questions there, right?
Starting point is 00:31:05 Pretty simple. No, I mean, I think this exercise kind of falls apart just because Ronald Cunia is such an outlier that I think you approach your draft very differently depending on first versus second versus third. I think there's a lot more similarities between the value of the second pick and the eighth pick right now than the first and second. But yeah, you're picking one of those stolen base guys. It gives you such an edge. Yeah. So I feel like there are so many priorities that need to be met with. an early round hitter
Starting point is 00:31:37 these days. I'm emphasizing runs in RBI a lot more than I have in the past and so being in a good lineup, playing every day. That counts for a lot with me. And also batting average. Batting average was something
Starting point is 00:31:50 that was always important to fill. I think stolen base is maybe less important than those to fill in the early rounds now, but it's still such an awesome advantage if you can get all that and stolen bases, you know, like a potential league leading number of stolen bases that those four hitters provide,
Starting point is 00:32:06 especially Acuna Witt and Carroll, that I think, like, to me, there's, it's really hard to make the argument for anyone else within the top four. I mean, just look at the other first round caliber hitters. There are a couple that provide you steals, but most of them don't. And so they give you all the other stuff you're looking for
Starting point is 00:32:26 in a round one type hitter, and so that's where they should go. But to be able to get a huge number of stolen bases on top of that is such a, such a big advantage, I feel like. And I've been on record. Anyone who's listening to this offseason, you know, I have Corby Carroll a little bit lower.
Starting point is 00:32:39 If I had the fourth overall pick in a Categories league, I would take Mookie Betts. I realize that I am sacrificing steals, but I do think there's a little bit more risk with Corbyn Carroll's shoulder versus the high floor, the production we've seen from Mookie Betts over the past couple of years. Coming back in the second round,
Starting point is 00:32:54 picks 21 through 24, top names available according to Fantasy Pros ADP. You've got Austin Riley, Ozzy Albies, Zach Wheeler, Marcus Semyon, Pete Alonzo, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. And Francisco Lindor. So there are different ways that you can build this out.
Starting point is 00:33:10 You got a bunch of speed in the first round with one of your, you know, wherever you drafted, one to four. You can either look for power with someone like a Riley or a Pete Alonzo. You can get a more well-rounded player like an Albies or a Francisco Lindor. How would you guys look to attack that part of the draft?
Starting point is 00:33:27 Or you could take a pitcher. Yeah, I'm probably taking a pitcher with one of the second or third round picks here, especially if I took Acuna. I think Acuna's starting pitcher, starting pitcher is actually a really viable strategy this season. I think probably less so because it would have been like Gosman and Wheeler more often than not.
Starting point is 00:33:48 And now it's probably Wheeler and Pablo or Wheeler and... You might be able to pull off Wheeler and Castillo, Chris. Yeah, Wheeler and Castillo. That's the name I was thinking of. So I think it's still viable, but I would have felt better about it before Gosman's shoulder fatigue. Yeah, I mean, that's the way to take advantage
Starting point is 00:34:11 of all those advantages that Acuna gives you across the board. If you want, like, he puts you so far ahead in every hitting category. I'm generally not crazy about drafting a pitcher that early this year, but I think taking Acuna is the one, the one time,
Starting point is 00:34:29 the time it makes, the most sets. Just like, okay, you're giving yourself the best chance to dominate everything. You've already got all the hitting, you're already off to such a great start with the hitting categories. Go ahead and fill some pitching categories with at least one of them. I think in a 12-team league, I'd be unlikely to take two, especially since Gosman's status is up in the air now. But in a 15-teamber where those early starting pitchers deplete so quickly, then it's more justifiable. as for the other players look I think
Starting point is 00:35:01 if Francisco Lindor is there probably not pairing him with Bobby Witt but for either the outfielders to get a potential 30 30 man at what in my mind is the second weakest position distant second but the second weakest and obviously there's no outfielder's worth
Starting point is 00:35:17 taking here I think if Lindor's there I'm just automatically taking him and not considering other hitters over him if it is Witt then I probably opt for like is Austin Riley? Was he one of the ones?
Starting point is 00:35:33 He might make it. Yeah, there's a chance. I mean, it's it's less about, it's more just which hitter do I like the most than goes with this guy because those first four hitters, you know, Coonia does everything even better than the rest,
Starting point is 00:35:47 but they all basically do the same things well. You know, and three of them are outfielders. So it's just, you know, I rank, I rank Riley higher than I rank Albies. And I rank Albies higher than Alon. I'm not even sure of that. Who I rank higher between Alonzo and Albies.
Starting point is 00:36:03 But it would be mostly about which, just which editor I liked most. In the early third round, you mentioned, you know, you could potentially go double dip with the starting pitchers if you take a Ronald Cooney. You know, a lot of the same names that we just mentioned,
Starting point is 00:36:19 Albies could still be there, a Zach Wheeler, Marcus Semyon, Pete Alonzo. There are other names that become available. Vlad Jr., Corey Seeger, Luis Castillo, Gunner-Henderson, Joseo Tuvay, is a name that we often gravitate towards Elida-Cruz. There's a lot of people out there
Starting point is 00:36:33 that would take him in the early third round. I'm not sure that any of us would, but let's say that you started with Julio Rodriguez and Francisco Lindor, or even Austin Riley for that case. You started with two hitters. Would you be looking to take a pitcher in the early third in a Categories League,
Starting point is 00:36:49 or would you look to take another hitter and just keep adding up those stats? That's where it gets tough. Because I like the hitters more than the pitchers here. But what's pitcher going to look like when it gets back to you? You're counting on like Terrick Scubal making it back to you on round four? Or let's see, who would be another one? So late fourth round is Logan Webb, Aeronola, Terrick Scubal.
Starting point is 00:37:16 Yeah. I mean, those are still. Max Fried. I think those are fine. Aces. I think they're fine options, yeah. So. I like them all.
Starting point is 00:37:24 a lot more as my number two personally. Yeah, of course, in a perfect world. But I think the hitter drop-off is for sure going to be, have happened by the time it gets back to you in round four. And with pitcher, there's a chance it doesn't. And I understand you already have two hitters. So maybe you don't want to risk it that much. You just want to get yourself an ace and not have to stress so much about what's there.
Starting point is 00:37:52 or maybe give yourself a chance of taking a second pitcher in round four. I can understand that. But me personally, like if Lendor, I already took him in round two and, you know, Albies is still there or Simmina is still there and I can get an elite second basement
Starting point is 00:38:10 and have one of the clearer advantages at that position, I think I still do it and trust that a pitcher, or maybe even two, that I really like is still going to be there at the round four or five turn. Easier to say in a 12-team league. Harder to say in a 15-team league. But in a 12-team league,
Starting point is 00:38:30 yeah, I think I'd be more likely to do that because that's... We're not at the point where we've had that drop-off at hitter, and there's no longer any MVP-caliber bats left. There's still about half a round of that. And so picking in the first half of round three gives you an advantage
Starting point is 00:38:46 that picking in the back half of round three, people don't have. I think I mostly agree, Scott, with... your premise of taking three hitters, if you have an early round pick, you know, a top four pick. Because the hitters that I've noticed at the end of the fourth and early fifth, they're just, they're not as good as the pitchers. I just always like the pitchers more in that range. So I have liked starting my team hitter, hitter, hitter, and then maybe taking two pitchers right after that in rounds four and five and building out the team from there. Let's talk about a top four pick in a head-to-head points league. Scott has it Acuna, Betts, Freeman, Judge, his top four picks.
Starting point is 00:39:19 Scott, are you going to leave Judge top four knowing what we know now? I think I got to move Soto ahead of him. Okay. I've been tempted to do that all along and yeah, I think points leagues especially with the walk to strikeout ratio for Soto.
Starting point is 00:39:36 Yeah, I think I need to do that. And I'm making a similar move with Judge moving down and Freeman moving up on mine. Okay, so the top four in some order, Acuna bets Freeman judge if you have a top four pick in a head to head points league. The top available
Starting point is 00:39:49 in the second round. Soto. Let's say Soto. Soto ahead of judge now. Yeah. Picks 21 to 24. This is now using CBS head-to-head points ADP. If you do go on the website,
Starting point is 00:39:59 CBS has ADP broken down by Roto and head-to-head points. So if you want to compare and contrast, based on what type of league format you play and you can do that. Zach Wheeler, Francisco Lindor, Corbyn, Austin-L-Touvae, Austin-Ele-Touvae, Rafael Devers, Marcus Semyon, Luis Castillo, Ozzie Albi. Those are some of the top names available at the end of the second.
Starting point is 00:40:19 Who would you guys be looking at in a head-ed points league? If Burns is there, I'm definitely taking him. Regardless of what spot I'm picking from. I'm definitely taking Burns. I think I thought he was closer to Cole than he was to the number four pitcher. Before Cole's injury, now I think he's the clear number two. So if he's there, I'm definitely taking him. Otherwise, I think I'm focusing on hitters.
Starting point is 00:40:43 I think I'd take a hitter anyway. I actually think it's less important to get a stand. out ace in a points league than a roto league. And I know that goes against conventional wisdom. Head-to-head points is considered like the pitching format. But the scoring format is so much more forgiving for mediocre pitching. And particularly in the age of the glob, like globby pitchers can be pretty valuable in head-to-head points league. I mean, they have a blow-up start.
Starting point is 00:41:12 It doesn't, you don't carry that around with you forever. It's over and done after a week. And you can mitigate with volume start, volume two. start weeks and such. So I am more interested. Usually you're dealing with a smaller lineup and head-to-head point links too. So you need to get a clearer advantage at each spot. And so I'm, I'm even more motivated to keep drafting hitters until we're out of those MVP caliber bats, usually at some point in round three. And so in late in round two, I definitely do that. I probably would not take Riley or Devers though.
Starting point is 00:41:50 I'd be more likely to take a second basement, Lindor maybe, but or a second baseman like Simeon or Altuve, because I think this format is especially bad for Riley and Devers who don't have the greatest plate discipline. And it pulls up somebody like Bregman, who I would imagine is going at the four or five turn a lot of times. Like I think in this scoring,
Starting point is 00:42:13 format points leagues. Breggman is on equal footing with Riley and Deffers. And so I'd rather have him a couple rounds later if that's possible. Breggman's ADP in hits head points,
Starting point is 00:42:25 by the way, on CBS is 38.1. So, as it should be. It's an early fourth round pick. So he probably went. He could make it to you, but yeah, it's not on average.
Starting point is 00:42:35 He went almost at the end of the seventh round in the Roto draft I went to. And I know Roto's his weaker format, but I, I was really hoping he would make it back to me. The only thing I would point out about Burns,
Starting point is 00:42:48 because I agree, pitching can get overrated in head-to-head points leagues. Over the last three seasons, he's averaging 519 points per season. That's better than all but 11 hitters right now. And I do think Burns is probably going to have his best season. So that's the only reason why, for me,
Starting point is 00:43:09 I give him the edge. It's not a pitching is valued more in this form, that thing, it's specifically a, I think Corbyn Burns is going to have an awesome season. In the early third round, picks 25 to 28. A lot of the same names, Altuve Devere, Semian, Luis Castillo, Yamamoto,
Starting point is 00:43:25 Framber Valdez gets elevated in a points league. There's Ozzy Albies. Kevin Gosman has fallen down a little bit. And then the hitters, you get into like Trout, Vlad, Bregman. That might be more like the mid to late third round. But Scott, it sounds like you're looking to grab hitters. Chris, if you did
Starting point is 00:43:41 take a hitter with your first round pick and then Corbyn Burns Go ahead, sorry If you go hitter Corbyn Burns Which of these hitters would you Would you be looking at in the third round Of eight points league? Gosh, I would think Semion
Starting point is 00:43:58 Yeah, I think Even how good, how good his counting stats are. I just, you know, he's the number four hitter in this format over the past four after Over the past three seasons. So I think I would go Simeon if he's there. I wanted to ask, what is Corey Seeger's ADP in this format on CBS? Because I had him as a top five pick in head-to-head points leagues overall until the injury.
Starting point is 00:44:26 18. I mean, if you could get him at the two-three turn, I think I like that even more than Lindor, just because he's so well-suited for this format. And I understand he might miss the first couple weeks of the season, but I think it's worth it. All right. Let's move into the middle part of the first round. If you are drafting picks 5 through 8 in a Roto or a Categories League, we will quickly run through each of your top eight in this format.
Starting point is 00:44:53 And for you, Scott, it's Acuna, Witt, Julio, Carol. We mentioned that before. And then Betts, Freeman, Kyle Tucker, and Fernando Tatis. So that is your top eight in a Categories League. Chris, for you, it's Acuna, Julio, Witt, and Carol. And then Tatis, Betz, Freeman, and Tucker. We do know that you are a little bit higher on. Fernando Tatis, you have him fifth overall in that format.
Starting point is 00:45:15 A mid-second round, you're looking at pick 17 through 20, the best available, according to Fantasy Pros ADP. Yordana Alvarez, Bryce Harper, Corbyn, Burns, Raphael Devers, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Francisco Lindor. Do you guys think about specific pairings when, like, after you get outside of the top four guys, like, there are different kind of skill sets that you could target in the first round. Do you think about specific pairings, maybe doing, I don't know, like, Yoron Alvarez with someone who steals bases like Fernando Tatis? Is that something you, like, consciously think about or not really?
Starting point is 00:45:56 Yeah, I mean, I think if you're, the good thing is all of these guys should steal some bases. Betts and Freeman are probably on the lower end of that. You know, you're probably looking at a ceiling of 20 for both of them, maybe more realistically thinking about 15. So it's harder to come to group them with a Yordon Alvarez or Bryce Harper in the second round or Raphael Devers just because you know you're not going to get any steals from those guys or not very many. And so that does start to put pressure on you to find steals later in drafts. You have to start making sacrifices. So if you take bets and Freeman in particular,
Starting point is 00:46:30 I think you have to be a little more cognizant of who you take in the next couple of rounds. But I think Tatis is right there with Julio Witt and Carroll. So if I get him, I'm not really changing my approach. And Tucker's not far off. I mean, he's probably going to be 30-30 this year, maybe 35-35 with the move up in the lineup. So I think if you get Tatis or Tucker, you don't really have to change your approach too much relative to the top four. Scott does not agree. No, no, no, no.
Starting point is 00:47:10 I'm just trying to. And he's making sure the people listening know it as well as the people watching. Figure out. I am making faces because I'm thinking. So what? I don't know. I don't know that I don't know that I'm that concerned with balancing out my categories with the first two picks. I mean, it's great if it turns out that way.
Starting point is 00:47:31 But I think I just want as much production as I could possibly get. And if it happens to be at a weak position, even better. it would be hard to address the weakness of the position in round two because outfielders, there's not an outfielder we're taking in this range. So I'm just mostly looking at the most production I could get. Where's the list of hitters we're considering in round two of the... It's Yoran Alvarez, Bryce Harper, Devers, Riley, Albies, Lindor. So we're assuming Olson's already gone.
Starting point is 00:48:05 Yep. probably between Alvarez and Harper. And I might lean Harper at this point because I've kind of gotten scared away of Alvarez with the injury history for not wanting to, feeling like I can't afford to sacrifice anything and runs an RBI in the early rounds. I think those would be my top priorities.
Starting point is 00:48:26 And then you get back into Francisco Lindor and Ozzy Albi's in the two-third basement after that, which we already covered in the previous group. In the middle of the third round, picks 29 through 32, the best available. Gausman, Castillo, Kevin Gausman, Luis Castillo, Gunner Henderson, Jose Altuve, Ellie Dela Cruz, Zach Gallen, Michael Harris, who's been moving up draft boards, Yamamoto, Luis Robert. So really all these hitters provide a little bit of everything.
Starting point is 00:48:56 It sounds like we were going to start hitter, hitter regardless. Do you look to jump in on a pitcher here, or do you? you continue to just rack up the hitters? So I've talked about the MVP caliber bats and when the drop off happens. It's about here. I still consider Al Tuve to be part of that MVP caliber hitter group. He's among the last to be drafted. So if he's there, I'm probably taking him.
Starting point is 00:49:22 I mean, assuming I'd get all these or something in round two. And I might consider Ellie de la Cruz and I might consider Michael Harris over a pitcher. I'd consider it. it would be a close call. Ellie de la Cruz especially if if I had done something like Paramuky bets with Jordan Alvarez or whatever
Starting point is 00:49:44 hadn't gotten many steals yet and I was looking for oh I can get I can maybe get 60 from Ellie de la Cruz before you even consider his hitting upside. I haven't had occasion to draft Ellie De La Cruz yet but not because I'm not open to it. It's just somebody tends to pull him
Starting point is 00:49:59 into round two or something like that. You know what sounds fun on paper, and you kind of get just a little bit of everything? Freeman, Lindor, Michael Harris. You get a little bit of everything. You get an outfielder. Batting average should be really good. You're getting, I think, a decent amount of power and speed from each of those guys. I'm just not sure Harris is going to make it that far anymore.
Starting point is 00:50:20 Yeah, that's fair. He went 28th in the draft I did tonight, and I just, I kind of think that's where he's going to start living. I think I'd be most likely to consider him if I didn't get, an outfielder yet, meaning I didn't draft an outfielder in round one because there's not one worth taking in round two. And it's just so important for me to start building up that position, especially in a five outfielder league like Roto. I still have RBI and run concerns, but less with the likelihood of him batting sixth than ninth. But it does, with Harris, kind of feels like he could be anything, he could even be a Jose Al Tuve. You know, like you could
Starting point is 00:50:54 just take the guy who's already in that prime lineup spot, who already has the home run and stolen bases. And that I guess Harris, will probably drive in more runs, but... I really can't see myself taking Harris if Altuva. I can't see myself taking any of these players if Altuva is there. All right, let's talk about picks five through eight from a head-to-head points league perspective in Scott's top eight in this format.
Starting point is 00:51:17 Acuna, Betts, Freeman. We mentioned Judge is going to come down a little bit, but Soto, Tucker, Corbyn Carol, and Matt Olson, Chris's top eight and head-to-head points. Acuna Betts, Soto, Judge Freeman, Carol, Tatis, and Spencer Strider, this is the first time we've heard Spencer Strider's name yet. Have you actually done it, Chris?
Starting point is 00:51:37 Have you taken Spencer Strider as like a, you know, in that anywhere from, I don't know, seven to 10 range in a draft yet? Not in a points league, but in, we did a Roto League, I think two weeks ago where I did take. Pocket Aces, right? I took pocket Aces, yeah.
Starting point is 00:51:53 So that, don't feel great about the Garicol side of that. But yes, I would take Spencer Strider in the 10-ish range. All right. Right, so in the middle of the second round, pick 17 through 20. Outside of Strider, it sounds like you likely wound up with a hitter with your first round pick. Best available, according to CBS head to head points ADP. Bryce Harper, Tatease.
Starting point is 00:52:15 Tatees goes low in these points leagues, man. Which doesn't, like, he's not as good in points leagues, but he should still be really, really good in points leagues. Same thing with Trey Turner. Like, he falls down a little bit, but I think it's a mid-second round pick, totally fine. Pete Alonzo, Zach Wheeler, Francisco Lindor, Corbyn Burns. Is there a specific hitter or two you would like to target in the middle of the second round?
Starting point is 00:52:39 I mean, Harper, if he's there, seems like a slam dunk as much as he walks. And honestly, if I had taken, because I ranked Matt Olson in this range for round one, I think in a points league, if I take Olson with pick eight, and Harper's there with my next pick, I think I still do it,
Starting point is 00:52:57 just because they're both so well-suited for the format. But if Harper isn't there... There goes your utility spot, though. Yeah, I mean, that's fine. And it's such a shallow league that I'm not confident any of the DH-only guys
Starting point is 00:53:14 are going to be somebody who's going to set me apart, not nearly as confident as having Harper and Olson to start out my team. So I understand it's not ideal, but in the unlikely scenario that happens, I'd be willing to do it. If Harper's gone, then Tatease, Turner, Alonzo.
Starting point is 00:53:32 I'd probably go Lendor over Alonzo, but basically just how you've listed them here. I'm not thinking about positions so much, just how upsidey the hitter is. All right, in the middle of the third round, you're looking at picks 29 through 32, best available, Yamamoto, Framber Valdez, Ozzie Albies,
Starting point is 00:53:48 Kevin Gosman, Zach Gallin, Mike Trout, Cody Bellinger, Vlad Jr., Alex Bregman. So we're kind of at that cutoff, Scott, the MVP caliber hitters. Albies loses a little bit of value in a Head Dead Points League? Is this where you start to maybe pivot to a pitcher
Starting point is 00:54:03 if these are the best hitters available? Or do you go with an Alex Breggman, who's really good in this format? Yeah, I think I still keep taking hitters. Because Breggman, like I said, in this format, he's as good as Austin Riley and Raphael Devers. So I'd rather do that before taking my first pitcher. I'd still take all these if I haven't filled second base yet.
Starting point is 00:54:21 Would I take Trout? No. Would I take Belanger? No. Would I take Vlad Jr.? Probably not. I'd probably take a pitcher over him. I will say I'm not taking Yamamoto here. I actually think I had to have points league is his worst format because he's likely to likelier than most pitchers to pitch every sixth day instead of every fifth day.
Starting point is 00:54:43 I would imagine they're going to find time for him to get that. That's going to mean fewer two start to start weeks. I think volume is going to be a problem for him. That matters less than a roto league where his ratios might be elite. But in a points league, I think it's a significant detriment. Yeah, his CBS head-toad points, ADP Yamamoto, is 31.7. So he's been going like mid-third round. It might be a little bit early there, as you pointed out.
Starting point is 00:55:09 What if you pick in the final third of the first round? Picks 9 through 12, and again, we'll start with Roto Categories format. And Scott's 7 through 12 in his Roto rankings, Kyle Tucker, Fernando Tatis, Trey Turner, Aaron Judge, Spencer Shreider, Juan Soto. So if any of those players fall to you in the late first round, obviously, you know, take whoever's ranked the highest. Yeah, I'm probably dropping Judge behind Soto there, too. I need to make that adjustment.
Starting point is 00:55:37 Yep. And then Chris is 7 through 12 in this format is Freeman, Tucker, Strider. Again, Judge, probably going to drop a little bit. And then Soto and Trey Turner, again, point out that you have Fernando Tatis ranked fifth in categories. And I think there's going to be lots of drafts where he falls to the late first round. So if you want to follow Chris's rankings, then you will be getting lots of Tate's. My decision tree is very simple. Are Ronald Acuna, Bobby Witt,
Starting point is 00:56:05 Julio Rodriguez, or Corby and Carroll available? Yes, take them. No, take Fernando Tatis. Okay. What about Strider? Like, when do you guys actually consider taking Shrider in a Categories League? What do I have him?
Starting point is 00:56:20 Ninth? Ninth. I guess it's possible, like, Tatease is there, and I don't take him there, but yeah, ninth or tenth. Scott? Yeah. I've never been faced with the possibility.
Starting point is 00:56:34 Somebody seems to, like a lot of times he gets dragged up to like fourth, the Strider in Categories leagues. I guess where I rank him is where I'd consider taking him, which in my case is 7th, 9th, 10th, 10th, after I move judge down. Okay. What about in the early second round?
Starting point is 00:56:52 So picks 13 through 16, best available according to Fantasy Pros ADP, Shohei Otani, Garrett Cole, Matt Olson, Jose Ramirez, Trey Turner, Yorda Alvarez, Bryce Harper, Corbyn Burns. Scott, you've talked all offseason about 17, 16, 16 first round caliber bats. I believe we're at 16 now. 16 with the loss of Seeger.
Starting point is 00:57:13 So you could still get a lot of those in the early second round, and you can just start your team hitter hitter. Mm-hmm. And that's what I usually do. Now, if it's a 15-teamor, as I did in Tau Wars, I'm a little more open to taking a pitcher, the Garra Cole situation kind of blows up that idea. But, you know, maybe if Spencer Strider, you know,
Starting point is 00:57:35 if Spencer Strider's there at 10, like I said, I'd take them. And I'd be more likely to do it in a 15-teamer is what I'm saying because of how quickly the high-end pitcher class depletes and how much harder it is to get four of my top 30. But otherwise, I mean, and Strider's the only pitcher, if we're assuming Garacol is out, Strider is the only pitcher I'd consider here. So if he's not possible,
Starting point is 00:57:58 that absolutely I'm going hitter-hitter. What I'm doing with the last four picks in round one, a very common combination for me is Matt Olson is almost always a part of it, usually with the second pick. And then, yeah, one of those seven through 12 guys, like Trey Turner and Matt Olson, I think makes a lot of sense. Yep. I'd be fine with Juan Soto. metals. And even though there's no steals there, there's a great run in RBI production.
Starting point is 00:58:28 You should be set for home runs. You should be pretty good in shape with batting average. You should have everything but steals well covered. And you've got an outfielder already, which I think is a high priority in the first. To the degree you could help it, it's great to get an outfielder in round one. Chris, I was going to ask about Trey Turner, if you take him as a late first round pick in a roto league. Do you maybe put an emphasis on taking Matt Olson or Yorda Alvarez or Bryce Harper just to get that that kind of power balance with a Trey Turner? Or would you just take, you know, Otani
Starting point is 00:59:03 who's going to give you power in speed or Jose Ramirez, whoever might be. Yeah, I mean, that Otani might hit more home runs than any of those guys. He could. A, an Otani Turner pairing sounds really nice. Jose Ramirez is going to hit. 30 home runs. I think we're going to get a bounce back in terms of the run production. I think last year it was 180 something. I just wrote this down. I should have this off the top of my head. 167 runs plus RBI last season.
Starting point is 00:59:33 He averaged 214 between 2021 and 2022. I expect significant bounce back for Jose Ramirez, so I'm fine taking him there as well. Yeah, I think Turner pairs well with everyone, really. Olson Otani Ramirez. How do you rank them? I just gave my ranking. Olson, Otani Ramirez. Otani Ramirez Olson.
Starting point is 00:59:55 I think I have the same ranking. And I have Harper ahead of Olson too, but I think I'm on an island there. Yeah, I've got Harper behind Olson and Corbyn Burns. The late third round options picks 33 through 36. Best available, L.A. Delaire Cruz, Zach Gallin, Michael Harris. Probably not Michael Harris anymore. Yamamoto, Luis Robert, Pablo Lopez, Adley Ruchman, Bobachette, Randy, a Rosa Rana. So it sounded like no matter, I mean, I guess there is a scenario where you start with Spencer Shrider,
Starting point is 01:00:27 but let's assume that you start hitter-hitter. Is this the point where, again, you might be looking at double-tap pitcher, maybe take a Zach Gallen and a Terrick Scouble or whoever it might be? This is, most of the hitters listed here are beyond the MVP caliber threshold for for me. So this is probably where I'm looking to take my first pitcher late in round three. If L.A. de la Cruz is there.
Starting point is 01:00:51 Yes. I probably take him. Yes. But he's never there. Yeah, not in our drafts. If Michael Harris is there, but we're saying that's not likely either.
Starting point is 01:01:01 So I would definitely take a Yamamoto or a Pablo Lopez over a Luis Robert or a Boba Chet, Randy Rosa. I take a pitcher over them. And yeah, I might go back to back pitchers depending on what. pitchers we're talking about all the way back in round four. Yeah, I prefer Pablo, Gallon, Yamamoto in the fourth round. But I'm happy to take them, you know, early in the fourth round.
Starting point is 01:01:27 Late in the third, maybe, but I prefer not to. One name I haven't mentioned, CJ Abrams. If you start your team with two of Alvarez, Juan Soto, Matt Olson, Bryce Harper, Judge, do you make it an emphasis to get Abrams at the end of the third or early first? fourth round. I've done it before, and I think I regretted it in the aftermath, given what my pitching staff looks like.
Starting point is 01:01:55 I think I wished I'd taken a pitcher there instead. So I'd probably take a... I mean, it kind of depends how many pitchers are left, and you can count out, okay, what pitcher is the standard of ace I'm going to get on the way back in round four worth it to take the steals with C.J. Abrams. but I would lean toward taking the pitcher over Abrams, even if I'm behind and stolen bases at that point.
Starting point is 01:02:19 Let's quickly wrap up with picks 9 through 12 in a head-to-head points league and Scott's back end of the first round in this format. Corbyn Carole, Matt Olson, Bobby Witt, Julio Rodriguez, Jose Ramirez, and Fernando Tatis. Chris's picks 7 through 12 in a points league, Tatis, Strider, Jose Ramirez, Yorda, Alvarez, Julio Rodriguez, and Kyle Tucker. You didn't see that?
Starting point is 01:02:41 I don't even have Strider as a point. first rounder in a points league. You're crazy, man. You're crazy. Crazy man. People might be wondering, do Bobby Witt and Julio really lose that much value in a head to head points league? Based on the CBS scoring format, they do. Each of them
Starting point is 01:02:56 averaged 3.6 fantasy points per game last year. That was less than Kyle Tucker, Judge, Bellinger, Corby, Jose Al Tuve, Alvarez, Sieger, Freeman, Olson, Betts, Otani, Acuna. They're still really good and they're late first, early second rounders.
Starting point is 01:03:12 but Julio and Bobby Witt do lose a little bit of value in a head to head points league. The best available in the second round based on CBS Head to Head Points ADP, Jose Ramirez, Kyle Tucker, Alvarez, Seeger, Harper, Tatis, Turner, Wheeler, Burns. These are all names that we've talked about. Do you take any of those pitchers over those hitters? Or do you just... Nope. You just go hitter-hitter to start, right?
Starting point is 01:03:35 I go ahead or hitter. Yep. And then the late third round options picks 33 through 36. Kevin Gosman, Zach Allen, Mike Trout, Bellinger, Vlad Jr., Glassnow, Breggman, really good in that format again. Machado, Logan Webb. Machado shouldn't be here. Luis Robert, Gunner Henderson. Like it's too early for Machado?
Starting point is 01:03:56 Yeah. Yeah, I agree. Breggman, I'd probably have to take Breggman if he was there, provided I didn't have a third basement already through rounds one and two. But otherwise, I'm taking a pitcher in round three after going hitter, hitter. just don't like the hitters that are left here late in round three as much. This is where the pitchers catch up, I think. We're going to wrap there. For Scott and Chris, I am Frank.
Starting point is 01:04:17 Thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.

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