Fantasy Baseball Today - Hoskins Out for the Season! Players We Keep Drafting & Fading (3/24 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 24, 2023

Rhys Hoskins is out for the year with a torn ACL (1:40). Is Darick Hall worth drafting? ... Who are some Hoskins replacements if you've already drafted (7:35). ... Raisel Iglesias has shoulder inflammation (9:23). ... Adam Wainwright will start the season on the IL (12:00). ... Which catchers are we drafting most and fading (14:55)? ... Target Christian Walker (24:18). ... News (30:08): Kyle Tucker expects to be ready for Opening Day. ... Which second basemen do we keep drafting and fading (37:40)? ... Ke'Bryan Hayes has made some adjustments this spring (41:35). ... Fade Dansby Swanson (46:38)? ... Avoid Byron Buxton and Tyler O'Neill (49:33)? ... Everybody loves Jeffrey Springs (55:02)! ... Which relievers do we target and avoid (1:02:40)?  Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Fantasy Baseball Today is a finalist in the Baseball Category for the Sports Podcast Awards! Quickly create an account and vote here: https://www.sportspodcastgroup.com/sports_category/best-baseball-podcast/ Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Come in to fantasy baseball today on March 24th. Frank Stamphle, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, it was an injury-filled Thursday that we'll be recapping. The big one, Reese Hoskins out for the year with a torn ACL, Ryssel Iglesias, and Adam Wainwright, expected to start the season on the IL. And then we'll get into some players.

We keep drafting slash fading, going into a big draft weekend, so hopefully we can help you out there as well. If you're watching us on YouTube, please like this video and subscribe to the channel if you haven't already. And if you're listening on the audio side, make sure to download, follow, and leave a five-star review. We really appreciate it. If you missed any of our recent shows, you can always go back and listen on demand. We did a massive prospect preview on yesterday's show with the Welsh.

So you can always check that out. Chris, I see you're donning the powder blue and I guess you could call that Burgundy, Philly's jersey. I have one too. I thought about wearing it, but it's a sad day. Sad day for Phillies Nation. Yeah, yeah, we're all really bummed out. I'm obviously not a Phillies fan, but I'm still bummed out about Reese Hoskins' injury. It was tough to watch. You went down awkwardly.

And, you know, there's not really, it's never good when injuries happen, but this is not one where there's like a particularly robust silver lining. You know, I know some people like Derek Hall. Like, he hit the ball really hard and put up decent numbers last year. and has decent minor league numbers. He also saw 12 played appearances against lefties and struck out seven times. So I think he's almost certainly a platoon only bat. His OPS against lefties in AAA last year was also under 600. So he is probably a platoon only bat.

Someone who in your 15 team leagues can have some utility, but probably isn't going to matter in most 12 team leagues. All right. Well, let's talk about the entire injury. what else might happen because there's kind of rumors swirling all around right now. Following this injury again, Reese Hoskins out for the season with a torn ACL. And Derek Hall seems like the likely option to move to first base. But I've seen some rumors of Alec Bohm potentially sliding over to first base or even saw some rumors about McGilsono coming into.

I don't know that he would play first base. Maybe he's a DH and Derek Hall plays first, whatever it might be. If Bohm slides over to first, one of Edmundo Sosa or Josh Harrison, likely playing third base here. Scott, what is your best guess as of now as to what happens Sands, Reese Hoskins? Oh, I think a few things are going to happen. I think they have some versatility they can take advantage of. Edmundo Sosa, who's had a big spring and who had a strong performance for the Phillies after coming over from the Cardinals last season. I think they like him. And he's shown he can play basically everywhere. He would be an upgrade defensively at third over

Bome. And Bome would present a nice big target at first base. but if the Phillies do think Bome is their third basement of the future, I doubt they just make them their full-time first baseman this year. So it's probably more of a situation where Hall gets a lot of the starts at first base, especially against Ritey's. Maybe Bome moves over sometimes. They can cycle Castiano's through a D.H and let Sosa play more outfield. They can cycle Schwerber through a D.H.

Let Sosa play some outfield. I don't think it's a situation where they just have a stagnant. lineup. I think they just kind of move everybody around as needed. Chris talked about, so Hall and Sosa are both players that I have had interest in in like really, really deep leagues. So I don't want to overstate how useful they can be in fantasy because, you know, I'm thinking with my deepest leagues in mind. But I do think they're both kind of interesting. And, you know, Chris brought up. up good points about Hall.

He's struck out a lot in the past. He's been really bad against lefties in the past. I think the most likely scenario is the one he laid out. But he has had one of the loudest springs of any player in all of baseball. Derek Hall, five home runs, 319 batting average. And most significantly, eight strikeouts in 52 plate appearances, which of course is, it's happening in spring training, not always against Major League pitcher. not always with them attacking hitters

the way they normally would during the regular season. But for a guy with little experience whose biggest issue is strikeouts, it's encouraging to see. I'd put Derek Hall on my 40 deep sleepers even before this news because he already had an inn with Bryce Harper being hurt,

potentially playing a lot of DH. Now with first base open as well. In those deeper release, yes, I would go ahead and take a flyer on Derek Hall. But I'd be keeping an eye on him otherwise, just in case some of these gains that he's shown in spring training do become something more. And then Edmundo Sosa, who I mentioned, less interest in him. But if he does gain eligibility everywhere,

I think he does have enough pop that he could potentially factor in 15-team Roto leagues, if he's playing close to every day, which seems like more of a possibility now. He does have a max exevalo of 115 miles per hour in his career. So, you know, at least there, there is some raw power there. He's not really tapped into it too often at the major league level. But it's an interesting skill set, especially he's very, very fast, 96% on sprint speed. So there's not nothing there. I think if they played the same amount, I would probably prefer Sosa to Hall.

But I know. I was going the other way there. I'm probably, yeah, I think I'm probably a little more skeptical of Hall than, than you guys are. For what it's worth, Sosa has hit 4.57 with four home runs this spring. So also a very loud spring performance. And after coming over from the Phillies last year, you know, he hit 315 and 25 games for whatever that's worth.

Yeah, no, I think both guys are interesting from a deep league perspective. That's Edmundo Sosa and Derek Hall. Sosa, I think, kind of in like a Ha-sung Kim kind of way, where if you're playing a deeper league and you just want someone that you can move around, He has third base and shortstop eligibility on CBS. And then with Derek Hall, I don't want to understate the stat cast numbers last year, a 17% barrel rate.

If you lower the qualification to 50 batted ball events, he ranked seventh in baseball in barrel rate ahead of Shohei Otani, Austin Riley, O'Neo Cruz. Yeah, I mean, the little bit we saw of them, nine home runs and 142 plate appearances. Yeah. He could be relevant in like a Jock Peterson kind of way where even if he doesn't play against left,

maybe he's just really good against right-hand of pitching. That is Derek Hall. What happened if you draft, you drafted already, and you got Reese Hoskins on one of your teams. I have them on NL labor. I have no idea what I'm going to do there. He sees my NL-only-Vistman, too. He seemed like such a good bet in NL-only leagues

because, like, oh, he's safe. You know, he's very very affordable. Yeah. I already emailed Steve Gardner, and I'm like, what's the best way for me to communicate with the entire league? Because I need to make a trade. I need a first baseman now.

Replacements if you've already drafted in a shallower league. Miguel Vargas, 71% Rastas, 71%. Rottie Talas, 69%. I know there's a lot of points leagues, but it's kind of surprising. You're in good shape if you're in a shallower league.

Yeah, right? Will Myers, 45%, Trey Mancini, 40%. And then if you're in a deeper league, I wrote down, Brandon Belt, Dom Smith, Carlos Santana. Yeah. Although it sounds like the Mancini's of the world could be out there in a fairly deep league as well, 41% rostered.

Yeah. Did you mention Spencer Torkelson? I did not. I think he's right around 50% roster. Yeah, he's ADP is 297.4 at Fantasy Pros. I didn't realize roster rates were available yet. Torkelson's getting good reviews in camp. His production is still pretty middling, but, you know, that's worth noting. Big prospect pedigree there. Spencer Steer might be eligible at first base in some spots. He's definitely corner eligible because he's third base, but he played nine games last year. I know a lot of people aren't really in on Spencer Steer, but he hit 274 with like a 900 OPS in the miners last year,

and now he gets to play a Great American Ballpark. So I think Spencer Steer is someone who is already on my late round radar. I've drafted him in the late rounds and a bunch of leagues. And he's someone worth taking a look at. Reiselaglacius is dealing with low-grade shoulder inflammation. He'll be shut down for a week before ramping back up. manager Brian Snitker said he hopes Iglesias will only require the minimum 15 days on the IL. Scott, are you planning to lower Iglesias in your relief pitcher rankings?

And who do you think gets saves in the meantime for Atlanta? Well, they're pretty much said it's going to be AJ Mentor. So thank you to Brian Snitker for the, for making it clear. I have moved Ryssel Iglesias down some, mostly because I want to keep. myself from going earlier than I have to. I suspect this is a sort of situation where you could get him at a pretty steep discount just because fantasy players tend to freak out about early season IL stents, the beginning of season IL stents.

I think this is something that we could stand to model front, like real life front offices about, like we could model their behavior. more with this sort of thing. Because I think the way MLB people look at it is, yeah, let's go ahead and put him on the IL to start the year. It's a long season. Make sure he's healthy for the majority of it. No big deal. But we see them put him on the IL and we start freaking out.

He's going to miss half the season. And like, no, it's a long season. Certainly if you're playing a league with IL spots, it just gives you an opportunity to pick up another player in the meantime. during the time of year when roster space is most valuable because you don't know who's good yet. That's still being sorted out. So you'd like to have more bites at the apple. So back to Iglesias. I moved him down, but I moved him down within the same tier at relief pitcher.

So I moved him behind. So I had him pretty high already. I moved him behind Jordan Romano, Felix Batista, Ryan Presley, and Kenley Janssen. But he's still in that same tier with them for me. Yeah, I moved him behind those guys. guys, Camilla Duval and David Bednar. So like, just basically at the bottom of the guys were pretty confident are their team's closers.

Not, not too far down. And it's worth noting he had shoulder issues in 2015 and 2016, went on the aisle in both of those years, missed about a month each time. Hasn't had any issue since. So I don't think it's too big of a concern, but obviously, you know, anytime you have shoulder issues with a pitcher, it's, it's a little bit of a red flag. for sure. The other name to go on the IL or likely to start on the IL is Adam Wainwright.

He's dealing with a groin strain. Apparently Jake Woodford is expected to take his place in the rotation and Woodford through 48 innings last season, mostly in relief. And he had a 2.23 ERA, 1.12 whip 4.5K per 9. Not a typo. 4.5K per 9 with a 52% ground ball rate. He's looked really good this spring for what it's worth. Over a strikeout branding, his opponent.

in quality, 8.3, according to baseball reference, that's somewhere between AAA and Major League Baseball. So it's not like he's just going up against a bunch of scrubby players. Scott, any interest in Jake Woodford? You know, this is a very deep league play, but he pitches for a good team with a good defense behind him. Yeah, I mean, he did catch my eye this spring, particularly with his last start, seven strikeouts and five shutout innings. And he's basically been right out of strikeout burning this spring with a lot of innings. But I, you know, obviously I didn't have much reason to think anything of it,

26-year-old who doesn't have a rotation spot, why should I care what he's doing this spring? Now, have to take a closer look. I could still come up probably with 130 starting pitchers I'd rather have than him. So, you know, if he goes and dominates his first time out, maybe I'll rethink it. But for now, I think it's pretty safe to ignore Jake Woodford.

All right, we had some good injury news. As Yordon Alvarez made his spring debut on Thursday, he let off for the team. He was playing left field. the lead-off thing is interesting. Like, I don't think he's going to lead off, but I don't know. Maybe they just wanted to get him, you know, more, more played against. Yeah, I would guess that's what it is.

He went 0 for 3 with a strikeout, but Chris, obviously this is good news. Let's monitor the next couple of days, see how his hand bounces back and all that kind of stuff. But, you know, with this, are you moving Alvarez back into the middle of the first round? Yeah, that's pretty much where I've been once the, once the reports started indicating that he would be returning. He's in the 7 to 8. nine range, I'm pretty sure. Eight in Roto, six, and head-to-head still. So, yeah, I'm back on board.

All right, good news for Yordon Alvarez. Let's take an early break and when we get back, players we keep drafting, players we keep fading here on Fantasy Baseball today. Fantasy Baseball today is a finalist in the baseball category for the Sports Podcast Awards. We're going up against some big names. And it is a voting system, which means we need your help. You can scan the QR code in the top right corner.

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We really do appreciate it. Let's get into players we keep drafting and fading. I think this is a little bit different than our favorite targets from last week because you don't always wind up with your favorite targets. It's like who are you actually drafting most? And we'll start off with Catcher. And we'll start off with Scott. Who are you drafting?

Oh, we're going position by position. Who am I actually drafting most at catcher? So I actually wrote about this subject just last night, the 25 players I can't stop drafting. And I was kind of surprised that I put together 11 teams at the time I wrote this. Now I'm up to 12. I just did another draft put together another team before this. But at the time with the 11 teams, there were only three players that were represented on more than three of my teams. So there hasn't been as much repetition as I feel like there usually is with me putting together my teams.

However, I did feature one catcher in the article, and that catcher is Salvador Perez, especially like drafting him in categories leagues, less so in points leagues. Points leagues I gravitate more toward the good plate discipline guys like Adlery Rushman and Alejandro Kirk. But in Categories leagues and roto leagues, I do think Salvador Perez is a singularity at the position. I think he showed it. Obviously, his numbers were dragged down by playing through a torn thumb ligament for as long as he did. But when he did finally have surgery to correct it, he came back for nearly 60 games. And his 162 game pace in those 57 games, I believe it was, was 34 homers and 119 RBI.

So not, you know, it wasn't 48 homers like he hit in 2021, but how many catchers are even going to hit 30 home runs? I still think Salvador Perez is the best bet at the position to do that, to lead the position in home runs, and far and away to lead the position in RBI. I don't think there's another catcher with a realistic chance at 100 RBI. Most of the ones we think of as good aren't even going to have 80 RBI. So, yeah, I love drafting Salvador Perez, especially since he tends to go,

three rounds later this year than he did last year. I think he is a special fit in that catcher spot in those categories formats specifically. Chris, who is the catcher that you keep drafting this season? If it's not Salvador Perez, and I think it probably is, I haven't done this exercise yet, but if it's not Salvador Perez,

it's probably Alejandro Kirk. I have them back to back in my rankings. And Alejandro Kirk, it kind of mostly just comes down to, okay, it's like the 60 to 80 range. right now. What do I need? Do I need batting average or do I need power? If I need batting average, I'll go with Kirk. If I need power, I'll go to Salvador Perez. Now, if I need batting average, I'm probably waiting a little longer to take Kirk than I would take Perez. You know,

he's often around 100, if anything. So I do prefer Salvador Perez. I make him more of a priority. But, you know, it kind of depends on team need. But it's those two guys for sure. Chris, I don't think you're on the the podcast. We did a mailbag earlier in the offseason where somebody emailed in something about a small beefy baseball boy. I don't know that those exist, but if they did, I think it would probably be Alejandro Kirk. Because he's like...

He's definitely... I mean, like, Routy Tellez, Dan Vogelbach, and Alejandro Kirk all kind of just have the same body type. Yeah. Like the same mass and density. It's just like the volume is slightly different. Alejandro Kirk certainly the densest, of those beefy baseball boys,

but they're all, I think, clearly big beefy baseball boys. I was watching Gene Seguer at third base for the Marlins the other day. Obviously, a shorter guy. It's looking pretty beefy these days.

Surprisingly, yeah, surprisingly, like not like different type of beefy. Right. Yeah. But like, yeah, I'm surprised.

He's kind of, yeah, he's kind of, he's a little thicker than I expected. Mm-hmm. Still gets around, though. I mean, the guy can run a little bit.

So hopefully that doesn't slow him down too much. Gene Seguera, small, beefy, baseball boy. Catcher that I keep drafting. I really just live in this tier of Wilson Contreras, Alejandro Kirk, M.J. Melendez, Sean Murphy. It's like the middle part of the draft. I like the early-round catchers, but I just feel like I always need to prioritize something else at that point. It's been Sean Murphy. I mean, he is the one that I target.

He is the one that I have the most. And if Sean Murphy has a bad first season in Atlanta, then I'm probably going to have a bad season in fantasy because I have a lot of Sean Murphy. 820 OPS in his career outside of Oakland Coliseum, obviously joining a fantastic lineup. Plate discipline was much better last year. Big things coming, hopefully, for Sean Murphy. What about our catcher fade,

someone that we keep avoiding at the position? Scott, is there anyone that stands out? Yes, I'm sure there is. Why don't you go to Chris first so I can pick it out and pick them out ahead of time. Chris, do you have one? If not, I'm ready to go. Yeah, I don't, there's not really a specific catcher I'm avoiding. like I never draft Wilson Contreras, but that's not really an avoiding situation.

It's just there are different things I want at that point in the draft. I don't think I'm in on Sean Murphy. I'm more skeptical of the gains that he made than you guys are. Come on, Chris. The comp is obvious a little bit, but it feels a little like Matt Olson, where he made this huge jump his last season in Oakland, especially with the plate discipline. And then everyone's like, well, this is who he is now.

And it's like, let's calm down. It's a small sample size. Moving to a new league, guys often struggle in that context. I think he's more of a guy than you guys do. But I'm not specifically avoiding him. I just haven't drafted him yet. So, I mean, I understand what you're saying with the Matt Olson comp. And it may play out that way with Sean Murphy's strikeout rate regressing again.

Unlike Olson, he didn't have much of a major league track record prior to last year. And it was really June. June of last year when Sean Murphy took the leap with the strikeout rate. And he went to being about a 16% strikeout guy from that point forward, which was very much in line with his minor league numbers. He was a low strikeout guy in the minors. And then breaking into the league, he became more of a high strikeout guy. So looking at it, that's why I think it's a little more likely to sustain in Sean Murphy's case,

just comparing it to his minor league track record. but for strikeout rates specifically comparing major and minor league track record is is it difficult and and uh it's it doesn't always play out like you think it's going to the catcher that i keep avoiding is cow raleigh it's he's going to hit home runs i think with his skill set he hits a lot of fly balls his barrel rate was amazing last year he also strikes out a ton and with those fly balls he's going to have a lower babb so if you need a 220 batting average in 20 to 25 home runs at that point in the draft from your catcher position, go for it.

But it's just something I typically am not targeting. Scott, a catcher you're avoiding. I'm going to say MJ Melendez, I haven't drafted him once. Everybody else seems to like him more than I do. He, I think his ADP is higher than both William Contreras and Sean Murphy. I rank him a tier below those guys because he has, like, he had a bad batting average last year. He did some things well. He walked a lot.

he homered at a good enough rate to compare with those two. But those two don't have to really even get better. I mean, we think Sean Murphy maybe can get better. You and I do, Frank. It doesn't really have to to justify his costs. Between those three, William Contrero, Sean Murphy, M.J. Melendez has to get better. The one thing that does intrigue me about Melendez is just he's one of those guys who like, his value is not linear. You know, it's not like if he gets better, he'll be a little,

if he gets a little better, he'll be a little better for fantasy. If he gets a little better, he's going to be a lot better for fantasy because he has that playing time edge at catcher because he's going to play so much at the outfield or DH. I don't think that edge is what it used to be, though, with all the NL teams having the DH spot now. I mean, we saw Will Smith play a lot of DH last year. I don't know that he'll do it as much with J.D. Martinez there, but I get your point. I don't know that Sean Murphy will play DH because they have

they have Travis Darno as well. Sean Murphy is the one that I'm worried about because he had 616 played appearances last year, which is so hard to do at the catcher position. And like, if Marcel Lozuna is just a wash, then maybe it'll happen. But like, I do, I worry about the counting stats for Sean Murphy.

Whereas Melendez, like, if he's pretty good, he's going to play 150 games. I feel very confident in that. So that's the one thing where like, that's one thing I like to do is try to identify places where guys cannot just outperform their ADP, but really, really jump ahead of where they're being drafted. Melendez is one guy where I initially had him as a bust. And I do think the likeliest outcome is he kind of disappoints at his price. And when it was a top 100 price, like it was an NFC drafts, I was out.

But I took him yesterday. I can't remember. I think it was like outside the top 120 or something. thing. And at that point, I can't really complain about it. Let's move over to first base and let's make it a little bit quicker. As much as I would love to talk for days about all these players. We got a lot of positions to get to. Let's go to Chris.

We'll start with you this time. A first baseman that you keep drafting. Christian Walker is probably the guy. I've got him as a top 100 player and he goes well outside the top 100. So he's an easy pick. If I don't take a first baseman early, I love to end up with Christian Walker. his he had the breakout season. He actually has a decent track record.

I think it's underrated. His last four seasons, really only one of them was bad. And stack has numbers even better than his actual numbers. So there is, I think, room for improvement for Christian Walker. His numbers were exactly the same as Matt Olson's

last year. Not literally, but close enough, right? So like, you do the player A, player B comp and, oh, wow.

They're probably, probably the same age, I would guess. Drafted 70 spots apart on average. And look, I'd rather have Olson than Walker, but like that, having Walker available with those Olson-like numbers last year

makes it easy to pass up first base early. Walker is 31, by the way. He's a little. I did have Walker on that list of 25 players. I keep drafting. But since you took him, I'll go with the other first baseman I have on here. And this is

kind of a strange one, but in the right circumstances, I've wound up with a couple shares of Paul Goldschmidt. And like, how did that happen? Because, you know, I've talked a lot about how I am, that that's one of the position that affords you the opportunity to wait. Well, part of the reason it happened is because when I pick at the start of drafts,

obviously a late round two pick, if all the elite third baseman go, including Aeronado, I still have to take someone at the turn. and usually that's someone who falls as Goldschmidt. The other time I got him was actually in a head-to-head points salary cap draft, an auction, basically. And I specifically targeted Goldschmidt because in that format, head-to-head points, he and Freddie Freeman were far and away the best first baseman. Points per game, they were both above 3.7.

next closest was Pete Alonzo 3.49, and then after that, Vladimir Guerrero 3.20. So Freeman and Goldschmidt, way ahead of everybody else. Everybody knows to invest a lot in Freeman. But Goldschmidt, by comparison, can be a relative bargain. So when you're not confined by turn order and having to stress about position scarcity, that way, you know, you can allocate dollars to take care of it even while investing big at first base. I think it's a good idea to go ahead and do that in Goldschmidt, especially in those points leaks. The first baseman that I keep drafting is actually Anthony Rizzo. I want Routy Teles, but usually I wait at first base.

Someone likes Routy Tiles more than I do. Or maybe I just play chicken a little bit too long and I wind up missing out on Routy Tiles. But if I do miss out, I usually wind up pivoting and I get Anthony Rizzo. I know the back injury recently too. That's not going away. He's probably going to miss 20 to 30 games at some point this season. But no one seems to want him. I got him for $3 in my Tout Wars head-to-head.

point salary cap draft. I mean, in that format specifically for three bucks, that's really, really cheap. So I'm just going to keep taking the discount on Anthony Rizzo. The first basement that I fade most often is C.J. Crone and much like Rizzo also dealing with the back injury, a little bit older, faded in the second half last year, too. Terrible numbers on the road. So really just a player you want to use at home, and it's kind of hard to time that up. So C.J. Cron is someone that I've been fading. Scott, how about you at first base? Yeah, I mean, that's who I was going to say, I have yet to draft Matt Olson at his cost. I'm not against drafting Matt Olson.

It's just he goes in the top 40 and I have much higher priorities than a first basement at that point in the draft. Plus I mentioned the Christian Walker thing. It's actually, CJ Crohn's probably the most truthful answer to the question because I have let him go stay on the board well beyond his ADP and I just curl my lip and I mean, he was there after 200. him. In the points league draft we did earlier this week.

Yeah, obviously points league. Points League drafts are kind of a special situation where it's easier to do that. But like, I don't know. Maybe it'll look stupid in the long run. I just have a really bad feeling about C.J. Crone. And can't convince myself to take him when he's there. Chris, a first baseman that you are fading.

Yeah, it's going to seem like another personal attack on Frank, but it's Nate Lowe. the biggest difference between Nate Low in 2021 and 2022 is just that he was a much more aggressive hitter. His swing rate overall jumped from 44.7% to 52.2%. Despite that, his zone rate actually went up. And maybe it was just he was swinging at the right pitches and pitchers had to attack him. His chase rate jumped seven percentage points as well.

So I feel like pitchers didn't adjust. They're going to adjust this year. and we'll see what it looks like, but we have a decent enough track record of Nate Lowe being pretty boring before last season that I just, I don't buy it. I think maybe I drafted him in one mock draft, but in real drafts, I don't have a single share of Nate Lowe.

I mean, I liked him a lot when he was going outside the top 300 in years past, but now that he's around 100 and closer to guys like Vinnie Pasquantino and Jose Brayu, I like him, but I don't like him enough to usually target him in that range. Yeah. Let's get into some news and notes before we talk about other positions. And we'll start with Kyle Tucker, who hopes to return to spring training on Sunday and expects to be ready for opening day. He tweaked his ankle, his right ankle last weekend. Carlos Swardon threw a 15-pitch bullpen session on Thursday.

It was his first time on the mound, and he only threw fastballs in this one. They said, let's see how he responds. And then maybe next time out, he'll mix in some breaking pitches. obviously still kind of working his way back from the forearm. The good news is he throws the fastball 80% of the time anyway, so he doesn't really need to get the sliders in. That's not actually true, though. No, he actually does throw his fast,

but last year it was like 80%. It was, I'm pretty sure that's right. He had like one of, if not the highest fastball rate in baseball. I think it was like 60%. Because 80% sounds like Freddie Peralta from five years ago. Last year, his fastball. ball rate was not coming up on baseball savant.com. It's very useful.

It's not loading for me either. 61%. That's still really high. It is a lot. Dave Roberts said that Tony Gonsland will spend, quote, a few weeks on the IL as he rehabs the ankle injury. Looks like Ryan Pepio will be the fifth starter in the meantime for the Dodgers. Garrett Whitlock and Brian Bayo will both begin the season on the 10-day IL.

It's mostly to continue building up their workloads. so that they can get into the rotation. Garrett Whitlock does have SPARP eligibility for those playing in head-to-head points leagues. Brandon Nimmo got five played appearances in a minor league game on Thursday. He hit a triple and ran the bases with no issue. He's been dealing with knee and ankle sprains.

Nico Horner was scratched Thursday due to left biceps tightness. Hopefully nothing too severe. Again, we're within a week from opening day now, so don't really like to see it that late into spring training. Jason Hayward and James Outman will be on the Dodgers opening day roster. And Outman is kind of interesting last year in the minors.

He hit 294 with 31 homers, 13 steals, and that came between AA and AAA. He was older for the level turned 25 last July. Scott, I'm kind of interested here. If James Outman is playing on the strong side of a platoon, either in center or left field somewhere for the Dodgers, I'm kind of interested. What do you think? Yeah, he's kind of interesting. I feel like I want to see the way the playing time shakes out.

Like if I have to choose between not Josh Outman, what is it? James Outman. James Outman, yeah, Josh Outman, former pitcher. If I have to choose between James Outman and Derek Hall today in one of those deeper Rotow leagues, I'm probably going to pick up Hall because I'm more confident how the Phillies are going to use him. But Outman is someone to monitor. Would you take Outman or Edmundo Sosa?

Outman. Okay. Apparently, Yuleiguriel and Jose Iglesias are not locked to make the Marlins roster. And then another report came out that both Brian De La Cruz and Hesu Sanchez will both be on the opening day roster for the marlins. He's back, baby. Let's go. Get those Brian De La Cruz shares. Some performances from Thursday worth mentioning Hayden Wesnowski, another great outing.

Five innings pitched, one unearned run with five strikeouts against the debacks. I had a Cubs fan tweet at me thanking the Yankees for treating that. Wesnesty to the Cubs. You're welcome on behalf of the Yankees, I guess. Graham Ashcraft struck out 10 against the Padres B team on Wednesday night and mentioned a new slider grip after the game. He said this is the best

the slider has ever felt for him. Team context, I get it. Cincinnati Reds, they're very bad. This is somebody who throws a 97-mile-per-hour cutter on average, and now he has a new slider grip. In the way that I'm kind of interested in James Outman, I'm kind of interested in Graham Ashcraft. So there were three starting pitchers that in my latest rankings update, I moved into the top 100, which isn't saying a ton.

Obviously, not every league goes 100 deep into the starting pitcher pool. But one of them is Josiah Gray, who we talked about earlier in the week, with his new cutter and hopefully using his fastball less, which is going to be the key to him succeeding. One is Mitch Keller, who also added a cutter and looked good this spring. and one is Graham Ashcraft. You'll remember at times I was talking up last year too. Like, guy regularly hits triple digits,

and the strikeouts weren't there as a rookie last season, but he got his share in the minors and 25 and 17 in a third innings this spring with that new slider. Graham Ashcraft might be a very late-breaking sleeper here. What is dead may never die. You say Kikuchi, five shutout innings with nine strikeouts against a lot.

lot of the twins regulars here on Thursday. Oh, you know what? It was four because I moved. I moved. You say Cacucci up. You say Cacucci up the highest of any of them. I'm getting real like, between you say Cacucci,

Mitch Keller is having a phenomenal spring. He's had one of two pitchers with 20 plus strikeouts and only one walk. And he's got like nine pitches now. He's one of those guys. I think he's either adding or reintroducing a cutter. I don't know. I literally, I think Mitch Keller throws like eight or nine pitches now. He's constantly tinkering.

He's basically you, Darvish. But between Mitch Keller and you say, Kukuchi, I'm getting like real bad flashbacks to like, just like. Yeah. Are we getting duped here, Chris? I don't know. Yeah. I want to not get hurt. It kind of reminds me of how, remember two springs ago, Trevor Rogers, actually, before he was a thing.

And Robby Ray. Rodon. Robbie Ray was another one. in that spring training. Exactly. Those three pitchers, two springs ago, nobody was on them until the very end of spring training. And they all turned out to be great.

The thing, you know, 10 step, right? There's no such thing. Freddie Peralta, I think, was the same thing. There's no such thing as a pitching prospect. That's what we say. But the reality is, like, there's no such thing as a pitcher. There are like 25 pitchers who are legitimately predictable.

Let's say 50 pitchers who are legitimately predictable on a year-to-year basis. 25 of them are awesome, 25 of them suck. And everyone else, it's just this wide range of possible outcomes. And everybody's always tweaking and seems like half the league is a drive-line baseball in the off-season. And so like,

we have to open our minds and our hearts to the possibilities that a Mitch Keller breakout could happen. As long as you don't have to pay much for it. I don't think that- Or anything for it at all. I don't think that you will have to. Jared Schuster, six innings, two runs, two strikeouts, to two walks against a bunch of the Mets starters. I think Dylan Dodd is going on either Friday or Saturday.

So that will be the last of the competition. I think it's probably going to be Schuster at this point. After a bad spring debut last week, Nester Cortez was pretty awesome on Thursday against most of the Cardinals. Regulars, he went four shutout with seven strikeouts. Kyle Lewis, a name we have not mentioned at all, hit another home run.

He's now 11 for 23 with three homers and 11 RBI. This is a very deep league special, NL only, maybe works his way into some playing time. Kyle Lewis with the Diamondbacks. Let's take our last break and then speed on through the rest of what we need to do on fantasy baseball today. Players, we keep drafting and fading. Let's move into second base and come on, boys. Let's keep it moving here. Scott, a second baseman.

Keep drafting. I probably should have said this guy first base because that's where he's eligible now. but I legitimately am drafting a lot of Miguel Vargas, who of course was the player I love in our Valentine's Day episode. And I still love him for all the same reasons. I think he has, I think he predictably, the most predictable thing he does, he's going to do is hit for batting average,

but with enough power and speed that you're going to like the complete package, obviously in a great lineup. He'll have that second base eligibility, he may pick up third base and outfield before all's done. So he's just kind of good at everything and with a really good team. And you can get him really late and I have to do. Chris, a second baseman, you keep drafting. It was Jorge Polanco and it may still end up being Jorge Polanco

because I think I still have him higher than he's likely to be drafted. But in the two of the three drafts I've done since Jose Altuvae got hurt, I've drafted him. So I think it might be Jose Altuvae. I'm willing, you know, I took him, I've got him ranked inside the top 100, but I took him at like 120, I think, the two times I've taken him. So I'm fine with that kind of value for him. Yeah, the same for me, Chris.

I mean, I wound up doing a bunch of early drafts this year. The NFBC has this function where you could just type in a player's name on your my team page and it'll show you all the leagues. So yesterday, or a couple days ago, when I heard the Altova news, I did that. And he popped up on like four different teams. It's like, oh my God. I have so much Jose Altuve. So that is the answer.

That was before he got hurt. But in deeper leagues, I always wind up with Gene Seguera as my middle infielder in, you know, roto leagues. I think he's like a 15, 15 kind of guy. Doesn't hurt you kind of player. So I do draft a lot of him. I have him in my NL only labor team as well. Draft in a lot of Cote, too.

Just a little bonus for you there. I actually have a lot of him too. Yeah. I mean, either him or Gene Cigura typically as my middle infielder. They just go so late. Much rather have. Much rather have Catele Marte. I mean, I've still got Catelein'Ramech. Ranked in my top 10 at the position.

So, like, I'm not really downgrading him very much at all. All right. Let's move over to our second base fade. I'll kick us off here. It's the batting average guys. Jeff McNeil, Luis Arise. They just don't really give you anything else. And even if you play in a points league, right? I'm looking at last year.

2.8 fantasy points per game for a rise. 2.74 for Jeff McNeil. And that was with them leading their respective leagues in batting average. So I just, I don't really know how it can get much better. I typically just don't target those guys. Chris will go to you first this time. Second base fade. Andres Jimenez.

I just, I think he's probably a good source of batting average, but maybe not a great one. I don't really trust him as a power source. I just, I tend to, I tend to be skeptical of the one-year breakouts. Andres Jimenez is that.

And I think there's a decent chance he falls back to being like a dozen homers and mediocre counting stats guy. Scott, It's jazz chisholm. I get the upside, especially now without two ve-haired. He has as much upside as anyone at second base, but I just think the risks

are too great for the cost. As much upside as any player in fantasy, Scott. Okay. Chris looked it up. I think on a per-game basis last year, his roto value was second to only Aaron Judge. Yes, second most valuable player, according to the

Razball player-rater on a per game race. Come on, Scott. I don't believe. leave you to use the Ron Swanson chip because like, all right. If you're hitting 250, I'm sorry. You're not the second most valuable player in Roto. I think he was on a 3530 pace though, which obviously matters a lot. Anywho, let's move on to, let's move over to third base.

For me, I have a lot of Austin Riley. I think there was like two or three drafts in a row where I wound up taking him. And I think we would talk before the podcast got and you'd be like, hey, you got Austin Riley. I got Austin Riley too and did we just become best friends? But if I miss out on those early round guys, I typically fall back on Gunner Henderson in the middle round.

So I think I have two or three shares of Henderson as well. Scott, how about you? Which early round second baseman are you drafting most? Third base. Third base. Yes, correct. By the way, that was a Ron Burgundy, Jeff. I think I said Ron Swanson.

I don't believe you. All right. I am drafting obviously a third basement in round two, but it's rarely, it hasn't been the same guy very often. I got plenty of Devers, Aeronado, Machado, Reilly,

mixed it up pretty well. So I'm going to surprise you with my pick here. I'm going to go Brandon Drury. Interestingly, because I have him as a bust this year, but... Notice everybody. Exactly.

And so it's gotten to a point where his downfall, is so widely presumed that his already very low ADP tends to be even lower leagues with fantasy baseball analysts. He falls to like a 230, 250 range.

And particularly in those deep roto leagues where you just have to make sure you don't fall behind in the counting stats if somebody's hurt, I think Drury is a great option for that because he's already second and third base eligibility, so very favorable eligibility.

right off the bat. They've talked about using him some at shortstop in the outfield this year. Could be quadruple eligibility, quadruple eligible sooner than not. And of course... He's already triple eligible. He's first base eligible, right?

Not on CBS. Okay. Double check that. Obviously, the reason people are fading him is because his stats in Cincinnati versus everywhere else last year. He's not in Cincinnati anymore, so we can't count on that.

But Angel Stadium's still a good place to hit. He's going to be batting behind all these on-base freaks in the Angels lineup, Taylor Ward, Mike Trout, Otani, Anthony Rendon, so he's going to have plenty of RBI opportunities. If he just gets to 80% of last year's power production, I think he'll be a pretty valuable asset still, a 250-hitting, 20, Homer, potentially 80-85 RBI guy with that favorable eligibility. very late in drafts. He is triple eligible, by the way. 27 games.

So he could end up eligible everywhere, but catcher before the years over, which would be amazing. Let's get him catcher eligible too. Why not? The old school Isaiah kind of Foleva back in the day is like catcher shortstop and I don't know, maybe third base. Speaking of third base, Chris, who is the third base when you keep drafting?

Surprisingly, I feel like it's Nolan Aronado. I feel like anytime I'm not drafting with you guys, I end up taking Nolan Aronado in the second or third round. That's not for the brand, Chris. If not him, it's probably Anthony Rendon, although I do have a decent amount of Brandon Drury as well. So, yeah. All right, let's slide over to our third base fade.

I don't have any Cabrion Hayes, and I was pretty adamant earlier in the offseason that I would not be targeting him, but he has looked pretty good this spring. I've got to point out he's nine for 30 with three home runs. That's like three more home runs than he had all of last year. So it seems like he's making a conscious effort to lift the ball.

He's not getting as much attention for it as Alec Bohm, but a lot of the same topics of conversation. He hits the ball arguably harder than Alec Bohm. He's a much better athlete. And it's a type of profile I tend to like to bet on because he's just such a good baseball player that it's like, I think he'll figure out the hitting part. Like he hits the ball really hard.

He makes a lot of contact. He's very fast. He's talking about stealing 30 bases. I need more of Brian Hayes. All right. Scott, a third baseman that you're fading. So Bobby Witt's the easy answer, but I think it's more just everyone takes him

and leaves like the Raphael Devers types to me, and I'm fine with that. So more interesting answer, I'm going to say the Ehuhenio Suarez, Matt Chapman combo. Same exact answer. We don't even have to go to me for this one. Okay. So yeah, just like, I just have no interest.

I tend to fill my power needs early, and so I don't have to rely on those really flawed profiles that those two hitters present with serious batting average downside. All right, fair enough. Let's move over to shortstop. Chris, you didn't get to talk for third base fade, so we'll start with you this time, the shortstop you keep drafting. Fernando Tatis.

Yeah, it has to be. Next. Yep. Chris. Although Boba shut quite a bit as well. Scott? Let's see who I put here. I guess I guess I'll say

I guess I'll say Anthony Volpe. Anthony Volpe. It's to mention another popular Giff, Jesse Pinkman saying, he can't keep getting away with it! Because that's how I feel every time people let me get Anthony Volpe outside the top 200.

But in this instance, you are him. I am the one who's getting away with it. Yes, Jesse Pinkman is commenting on my drafting of Anthony Volpe. Scott White is the one who knocks. Look, the upside is amazing. I think if he wins the job for the Yankees, the floor is pretty high, considering his plate discipline and how many bases he's going to steal.

And it's stupid that he's this close to winning the job, and you can still get him as late. you do. So Volpe is somebody I'm trying to draft everywhere and usually succeeding. This might surprise some people, but the short stops that I keep drafting are Carlos Correa, because nobody else wants Carlos Correa. He's kind of that last guy before it takes a pretty big fall off at the position too. So I find myself trying to hit other needs in drafts, and then I just wind up taking Correa. And if I miss out, Javier Baez, I think I got Baez on like two or three of my like slow draft team, my deeper leagues that I've done too.

and just hoping he bounces back to like 20 to 25 homers and double-digit seals with like a respectable batting average for Javier Baez. The fade, Dansby-Swanson, I don't have him anywhere, probably not going to have him anywhere. It just goes at a point where there's other really interesting short stops on the board as well. I should have mentioned this for the one I keep drafting.

I want it to be Corey Seeger, but it feels like a race as soon as the draft starts, like who's going to get Corey Seeger? I haven't heard anyone say a bad word about Corey Seeger this entire offseason. It kind of feels like everybody wants him. So it's just really hard to wind up with him in drafts. Let's go to Chris, the shortstop you keep fading.

Jeremy Payne. I just, I don't get why he's ahead of Carlos Correa. I don't think it makes very much sense. I think a lot of it is just the postseason performance, and I don't think there's any predictive value in that whatsoever. I think he's a decent player who doesn't stand out anywhere, and I don't have any interest in him at that price. Scott, you are up for a face.

made at shortstop. Well, you already said Dansby Swanson, so I'm going to say Xander Bogarts, though I do have a share of each. But generally speaking, that's the very large tier at shortstop, where Carlos Correa and Willie Adamas tend to go very late. And so I don't see the reason to bother with Swanson or Bogarts

early in that tier. All right, let's slide over to outfield. For me, Randy Rosarena in Roto Leagues, if he's there, typically in the third or fourth round, you know, someone that could give you 20, 20, maybe even, I saw some projection systems that were updated, the Batx, and I think now they have a Rosarena for like 35 steals.

They worked in the stolen base rates from spring training, and some projections went up, so, I mean, Randy Rosarena is super fast, it wouldn't surprise me if he just steals a bunch of bases this year. And then I usually get three of my top 30-ish, and then I wait, and I always get Jesse Winkers. It's like, Winker, Will Myers-Ollair. I wind up with one, if not multiple of those,

in every one of my five outfielder leagues. So, man, if they all stink, kind of like Sean Murphy earlier, I'm just not going to have a good fantasy season this year. Scott will come back to you, a couple of outfielers that you keep drafting. Okay, so I went on and on about my rising interest in Corbyn Carroll and how much I'm willing to reach for him with the Welsh the other day.

So we won't get into that again. Kyle Schorber is somebody I'd love to draft in round four in theory, but it actually hasn't been happening that much. I'm going to go with the duo of Garrett Mitchell and Jake Fraley, who I like to make my fourth and fifth outfielders in every five outfielder roto league, because I think they're going to give me a lot of steals for cheap, and without skimping on the power.

I think, you know, we've talked about how Mitchell's swing isn't optimized for power, But what we saw from him in the minors and a little bit in the majors and this spring so far, I think 15 homers is a reasonable expectation to go with 30 to 40 steals. Chris, multiple outfielder is that you keep drafting. You are muted, sir. Riley Green is the obvious answer to anyone who's listened. I draft him a ton. If it's cheating to say Ronald Acuna, I'll still say him because he's my number one player.

So anytime I draft in the top five and he's available, I will take Ronald Acuna. And then a little lower down, I end up with a lot of Michael Conforto these days. He's having a very good spring. It obviously doesn't mean anything necessarily, except that he's currently healthy. And the last time we saw a healthy Michael Conforto

is pretty dang good. So, yeah. All right. Yes, Michael Conforto has four home runs so far the spring. I think the strikeouts have started to. rack up for him. I was looking at his numbers the other day. Yeah, 13 strikeouts to two walks in 13 games. So

the power has been there that's nice to see for Conforto. It's his first game action in a while. I guess it's not surprising that he's striking out quite a bit. A couple of fades for me, Michael Harris and Cedric Mullins. We talk a lot about Harris so far this offseason. The ground ball rate being high, the lack of plate

discipline, chases a lot of pitches, struggles against left-handed pitching. With all that being said, he almost went 20-20 as a rookie. Could very easily make me look dumb and wouldn't surprise me, but just not enough of a track record there. Cedric Bullen's last season was getting benched against left-handed pitching in the second half of the season last year. So I just kind of worry about playing time. Like what happens if it gets off to a slow start? And the Orioles have a lot of prospects coming here soon too. I don't

think that anything that they'll take time away from Cedric Mullins, but maybe against left-handed pitching. That wouldn't surprise me. So I have not been drafting much of him either. Scott, some outfielders, you are fading. Since you brought up Mullins, I keep meaning to use him as a comp for Garrett Mitchell what I'm expecting for Garrett Mitchell. Cedric Mullins like numbers, but anyway. Fating, gosh, not surprisingly, Adolice Garcia, Byron Buxton.

I haven't shown any interest in rolling the dice on him. Tyler O'Neill, same thing, even though he was great in the WBC, and maybe he'll have a big bounce back. not something I've been that motivated to do. Who else? I haven't really been on board with that Cubs duo of Seya Suzuki and Ian Hap. I think they're both pretty mid if they manage to stay healthy. And I'll leave it at that.

I think I could probably throw Bellinger in that mix as well. I still like Suzuki. We talked about it earlier before he got hurt. So if you can get them at a discount, I do like that. But I haven't wound up with Ian Hap. Bellinger, gosh, who knows when it comes to him. I agree with you on Tyler O'Neill and Buckson. Scott, I don't have a single share of either one of those guys.

Chris, outfielders that you are fading. There aren't a ton that I'm not, that I'm actively out on, but I think Anthony Santander is probably one that I haven't drafted at all. I just, I know power is hard to find, but that's all he gives you. It's such a tough home park. His injury track record is so robust. I just, I have a hard time seeing it with him. then Mitch Hanigar, I haven't drafted at all.

I just between the injuries, the present injuries specifically, uh, and his advanced age, I just, it feels like there's too many ways for it to go wrong that we're currently seeing. But Chris, what about everything Santander did in the WBC? He was awesome.

I enjoyed the heck out of his performance for team Venezuela. That was my number two team. Uh, but still don't buy it. Starting pitchers, that we keep drafting. Zach Wheeler just keeps falling in drafts. And I don't, I know that there were injuries last year.

He started off with the shoulder. And then he actually had forearm tendonitis. When he pitched, he was Zach Wheeler. He was really good through 30 extra innings in the postseason. So he got the workload up to around 180. I have no issue taking Zach Wheeler where he's going. Fourth, sometimes even fifth round. Lance Lynn, my pitching strategy is basically dependent on him.

I like getting him as my SP3. sometimes my SP4, he was awesome, once he seemed like he was finally healthy last year. And Jeffrey Springs, I know the Bryce is on the rise. It's a little bit harder to get him now, but... I'm in on Jeffrey Springs now. I don't think I've had a chance to share the quote on the podcast yet. Can I do that? Yes, yes, you should, because Springs has been amazing so far during spring training,

and Scott found an interesting quote the other day. Yes, I did. So what was my concern about Jeffrey Springs, just that he was kind of a glorified long reliever last year, rarely going deep enough into starts to get enough wins or for those ratios to hold up. But here's what he said after his latest spring start. In the past year, I've been a little bit limited as I make the transition from relief, he was saying. So I personally, I want to make 30 plus starts.

I want to eat up innings. I want to be a guy who every five days goes out there and is going to give you six or seven innings. So that's his stated goal for this year is exactly the one thing I thought was missing. for Jeffrey Springs. And so you combine what he's aiming to do this year with what he's been doing this spring and suddenly looking pretty attractive to me. So I just got my first share of him in this draft I did tonight

and he's going to be somebody I'm targeting more aggressively here at the end of draft season. In fairness, I will point out, his name is Jeffrey Springs, not Jeffrey regular seasons. Good point. Very good point. Anywho. You can't get getting away with it.

Chris, pitchers that you, starting pitchers that you keep drafting. Kevin Gosman, I think he's a borderline ace. I don't really buy the BABB issues sustaining his, he was like top five in baseball and fit last season.

I think he's a very, very good pitcher. Joe Musgrove, I just, I think his price got too cheap for the non-seriousness of the injury. Redetmers.

I probably reach on him in pretty much all of my drafts. I think he's a legitimate, very, very good pitcher now. Musgrove is a good one, too. I wound up with him in Tout Wars for, I think, $12 or $14. So just too cheap, only if he misses, you know, one start, even if he misses two starts. I think that's probably too cheap for Joe Musgrove. Scott, you mentioned Springs.

Any other names you want to mention starting pitchers you keep drafted? Yeah, I haven't actually drafted much springs till lately, but the guys I have been drafting a lot, Chris Sale, of course, I don't need to go over that again. But Nestor Cortez, actually, you mentioned his good spring start. It was nice how people were scared away by the hamstring injury. That never seemed like a big deal

because it made Cortez that much more affordable. And I think he is one of those pitchers who's perfectly suited for this environment because great control, a lot of fly balls, weak fly balls, though, the kind of fly balls that especially now that the juice balls gone aren't going to turn into home runs, they're just going to be outs.

So I think that explains the disparity between his ERA and XIPP last year. Interestingly, his XERA was actually very close to his 244 ERA. And with that low walk rate, I think you're looking at definitely a whip standout, probably an ERA standout with more than a strikeout per inning. As somebody who tends to go cheap at starting pitcher, I like targeting guys who I feel secure with what they're going to provide in terms of ERA and Web. Like, I can't get that.

I can't. I'm not going to get that in the early rounds, obviously. So those mid-round targets have to be able to do that. Nester Cortez is perfect for that. Joe Ryan, who I talked about recently, at least is in the same category as far as WIP goes. A little more vulnerable with the ERA. But I think he has some upside there. and I think he has some upside in the strikeout department.

And then Lance McCullors, we talked about the other day, just because you can get him so late, stash him away. He's back at the end of April, and he's getting a lot of strikeouts for a big winner. Seems like a pretty good idea. And then, of course,

I do legitimately have three shares of each of them out Rushmore. Miles, Michaelis, Merrill Kelly, Tyler Anderson, and Martin Perez. So just going to give them one last shout out here. Yeah, the Golden Girl. very nice let's bring it home here starting pitcher fades Chris few names um hula rius I just I'm worried that that defense isn't going to be as good as it's been in the past he gives you good but not great innings good but not great strikeout total

so I'm just a little wary there at his price Zach Allen I think there's a lot of risk that's not being priced into him and uh Trista McKenzie is one that I just I'm not drafting at all I really hate it I'm not rooting against him. I love Tristan McKenzie. I think he's really fun. I just, I think he's going to be someone who struggles with the R.A. I think home runs are going to be more of an issue than they were last year. And he's again, a good but not great strikeout guy. So I just, there are other pitchers I prefer in that range. Scott, I'm going to steal one of your answers and just go with Jacob de Grom because I have him ranked outside the top three rounds. And there's

always going to be somebody who wants to take the chance on Jacob de Grom. And it won't be me. Probably won't be you either. Spencer Strider, I have zero shares. I'm not actively avoiding him. There will always be somebody in the draft that likes Spencer Strider more than I do. So I guess I just hate strikeouts between those two. And then Alec Manoa,

I just think there is going to be some regression this year. I don't know how much regression there is going to be. He's a workhorse. He goes deep into his starts. Strikeout rate was pretty unimpressive last year. Now they're pulling the walls in in right center field in Toronto, so maybe a few more home runs allowed for Alex.

Manoa this season as well. I just think he should not be going in the same range as like Kevin Gosman and Louise Castillo and guys like that who I think are more talented from a strikeout perspective. Scott, a few fades for you. So I don't have anyone who's drafted before Shane Bieber. Well, I take that back. I do have Sandy, I do have a couple shares of Sandy Alcantara both times an auction situation. Interesting. And in Tower Wars, I did get Shane McClanahan. But other than that, unless it's a keeper scenario, I don't. have anyone at starting pitcher who's drafted before Shane Bieber. Generally, I'm not fading anyone who's drafted beyond that, though.

I'm just kind of happy to take whatever last to me. But I haven't had much interest in drafting Blake Snell just because he's too risky with that ERA and WIP. Remember, I want guys who I feel like are pretty safe for that. Freddie Peralta, because I have serious questions about if he's going to really take on the workload of a true starting pitcher. And there was a third one here. I'm not seeing it now.

Maybe could I Senga just because he's too much of a wild card relative to others who are drafted in the same range. All right, let's wrap it up with relief pitcher. Let's just do both at the same time. Chris, one reliever that you are, that you keep drafting, one that you keep fitting. I mean, honestly, it's probably Emmanuel Class A. It was Edwin Diaz before the injury.

So it's just want to get one of those elite relief pitchers so I don't really have to think about the position the rest of the way. And so if there's someone I'm fading, it's probably like Clay Holmes or Yon Duran or one of those guys who, you'll have to pay a lot, and I'm not 100% certain they are going to be the closer all season. Scott, a reliever that you keep drafting, one that you keep fading. Kenley Janssen?

Just because he's at the end of that tier. Though now I guess Ricell Iglesias is for me, Maybe I actually have one more share of Daniel Bard now. So one more share of Bard than Kenley Janssen. Same situation, just the one guy from that tier of relievers that nobody wants so I can get him a round or two after the rest of the tier goes. And I often do. All right, the relief pitcher I keep drafting, no surprise.

It is the mountain. Felix Baltista was drafted him earlier before the injury, was drafting him at a discount once he got hurt. Looks like he's good. he struck out three in an appearance on Thursday. I think he's going to be fine entering the season. And I think he's really fun to watch too. So I do wind up with a lot of Felix Batista.

The relief pitcher fade, Camilo Doval. Just don't really want to get Gabe Kaplered here. I think that he will be the closer to start. I worry about the control, the walks for real issue last year. 3.99 walks per 9 for Deval. Also gets a lot of ground balls. The Giants defense, I think, is going to be pretty bad this year. So I do worry about that for Doval.

They paid Taylor Rogers. I don't know if people know how much. Three years, $33 million. That's how much you pay a closer. So it just wouldn't surprise me if he starts to work his way into that mix. Maybe it's kind of matchup dependent, but relief pitcher is too much of a headache already. I don't want to start off with one. And in my opinion, Camila Duval is going to be a headache this season.

All right. Well, we did it. We got through every position going a little bit long here, but it's a big draft weekend. So I want to make sure we get. I didn't mention who I'm fading. Oh, what is it? Ryan Presley. Why is that?

Ryan Presley, I'm fading because he tends to go ahead of Felix Bautista and Kenley Jansen in that same tier. And like his knee's always bothering him. I think I saw something he's not expected to throw. Sorry, am I doing the Ryan Presley, Ryan Halsley thing? Did you say Ryan Presley? Presley. I said Presley. Did you mean Helsley?

No, I met Presley. Okay. I thought you said Halsley. This is like the third time I've done that this spring. Yes. I wasn't paying close. of attention. Ryan Hellsley, likely to not throw on back to back days this season is a thing I saw. So there you go. Interesting. And probably a reason to fade him as well based on his ADP.

We're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for watching and listening fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five star rating on Apple or Spotify. We'll be back again tomorrow. Bye bye.