Fantasy Baseball Today - How To Draft From Each Draft Slot! (3/16 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 16, 2021

Let's talk some strategy. How should you draft from each draft slot? Let's start with the first overall pick (2:00)? Acuña, Soto, Betts, or Tatis in Roto? What do you do after you take a starting pitcher in H2H points? ... Let's move on to the second pick (11:03). Soto, Betts, or Tatis in Roto? What do you look for in rounds two and three? ... Soto or Tatis if you have the third pick (15:12)? Still go starting pitcher in a points league? ... What do you do fourth overall in a points league if deGrom, Cole, and Bieber are gone (20:15)? ... How should you attack the middle picks of the first round (26:12)? When should you consider a starting pitcher in the first round of a Roto or H2H categories draft? ... Let's hit on the latest news and notes, starting with Eugenio Suarez at shortstop (38:42). Shogo Akiyama is expected to start on the IL while AJ Puk could be in the A's rotation. ... How should you draft if you have a late first-round pick (48:37)? Should you take Jose Ramirez ahead of a starting pitcher in a points league? How does your team turn out if you draft two starting pitchers with your first two picks? ... Email us at [e-mail]. Join our FBT Bracket Challenge for a chance to enter the 'For the People' league: http://cbssports.com/FBTbrackets Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank, @AdamAizer Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive, center field, and swing. This is magnificent. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam.

How should you draft your team from each draft slot in a 12-team league? Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today. Frank Stamphill and Scott White here. no Chris Towers as he is out on fantasy football duties. Of course, NFL free agency has begun. So it is a very busy time in the football world. It's also a very busy time in the fantasy baseball world. I don't know if Chris Towers realizes that.

Scotty Dobbs. What's going on, Scott? How's life? Good. Good. Everything is second place to fantasy football, Frank. You know that. No, no, no, no.

We don't, no. I mean, the world might actually operate like that, but this is the world of fantasy baseball. baseball today. So we don't operate. We know better. We don't operate under those assumptions. We fantasy baseball number one here in our hearts and in our minds. I was talking to you beforehand and I am pretty much all drafted out for fantasy baseball. So what did I decide to do? Let's let's make a bunch of draft picks today on the show, Scott, and figure out how should you draft from each draft pick? This is something that I have done in the past. I haven't done a podcast

on it here yet, but I have found people are very receptive to it. So much like the strategy discussion that we had last week. Let us know what you think about this. I think it's the first time that you've done it here on the fantasy baseball podcast, Scott. So we are going to literally look at each draft slot. We're going to start at pick one, work all the way up to 12. We're going to tell you how you should draft your team, ideally based on ADP, in rounds one, two, and three for head-to-head points, roto, and head-to-head categories. So let's dive right in because we have a lot of draft picks to make, and we will start, of course,

with the first overall pick, Scott. And I assume that your first pick will be Ronald Lucuna because he is number one in all of our rankings. He is, I think, among those early rounders, the early first rounders who can contribute stolen bases.

He's the safe bet for a really high stolen base total. I think you could make a case for Tatis or bets or Soto to go number one, but I go Okunia. Yeah? Yep, I wouldn't be mad at anyone if you wanted to make the argument

for any of those other hitters that you just mentioned, Scott. The ATC projections from our guy, Ariel Cohen. You can find those on Sportsline. And for Akuna, 277 batting average, 39 home runs, 117 runs, 93 RBI, 29 steals. Maybe not a pure five category player

because he's not technically contributing in batting average, but he's not hurting you either. And he's really awesome in the other categories. So again, Ronald McCune, first overall for you, Scott, and he would be first overall for me.

The tradeoff between him and Soto is sacrificed some batting average for some steals. I like to get more steals there with that first overall pick. Based on Fantasy Pro's ADP, the best available at the two-three turn, Scott would be

Max Scherzer, DJ LaMayhew, Luis Castillo, Adelberto Mondesi, Jack Flaherty, Zander Bogarts. And for your sake, I included Anthony Rendon, Alex Bregman,

Corey Seeger. So assuming you have Ronald de Cunia on your team, what would you do next at the two-three turn? I feel like, you know, it kind of depends on how the picks have played out to that point. But if people approach starting pitcher the way they typically do in a Roto League, I'd probably look to go pitch or pitcher here. Now, it's interesting. I actually haven't drafted on this side that often, so I haven't had a chance to really play this. out. You know, I love drafting Bregman and Rendon in round three.

Usually I'm picking more toward the middle or end of round three, though. I love drafting Corey Seeger in round three most of all. His ADP is actually no, it's in the same range, yeah. So that would be tempting. Corey Seeger would be tempting. I think he's a first round caliber bad. I think all three

of those have the potential to be. But it's nice that you already have steals. A pretty good head start there with Akunia. and I'd be most worried about what your second and third starting pitcher looks like if you don't take two here. So that would look like what?

Scherzer, you're probably looking at like Scherzer, Jack Flaherty, Clayton Kirshaw. I don't think I'd reach for anybody beyond that group because I think the top pitcher after that for me is Kinta Maeda, which you know, you could maybe get him in round four, potentially even later. I know sometimes he gets pushed down

because other starting pitchers go ahead. So I think it would be reaching to go beyond Scherzer, Flaherty, Kershaw. Any chance Luis Castillo makes it here? I guess there's a chance. Yeah, he would be here too, based on ADP. Yeah, yeah.

But that's probably where I draw the line at starting pitcher in a Roto League. If you can get two of them, great. If not, probably go Seeger here. and not worry so much about getting stolen bases with Acuna already in the back. Yep, I agree completely. Take Ronald's Cunia first overall. I would like to get two starting pitchers.

Again, this is from the first overall pick in a roto draft. If I can wind up with Acuna, Flaherty, Castillo at 1, 24, and 25, picks 1, 24, and 25. I'm happy with that. Let's move over to head points. The first overall pick. We all have starting pitchers ranked first, so I assume that's where we go, right? Yeah We have a different starting pitcher ranked first

I have Bieber Each of us I'm not the only one in the world Who ranks Bieber first of the three The other two of course being Jacob deGrom McGar Cole I've seen a few other people do it For me it really comes down to

I see Cole and de Grom The last two years have shown this They're more like six to seven inning pitchers Which is still great Doing it just consistently as they do But Bieber is more like a seven to eight inning pitcher And that affects everything.

Not the least of which is his win potential. Part of the reason DeGrom's wins have been disappointing is because he's not pitching as deep into games as like a Bieber is. And of course, it affects strikeout total, it affects impact of ERA and WIP. Obviously, if we're talking about a points league context, you're not worried about ERA and WIP,

but you are worried about innings just because, you know, know, there were three points each. So that's why I go Bieber above those other two. But they're all really good. And, you know, I wouldn't argue with you too much if you took Cole or de Grom instead. All right. So you're going Bieber. I'm taking Garikol.

Either way, we're taking a starting pitcher first. So I looked at our most recent head-to-head points mock draft, the one that we did on the podcast last week. And I'm going to use the draft results there as our ADP for this, because obviously Fantasy Pros ADP is more so reflective for Roto and Headside Categories leagues. So the best available at that two-three turn would look something like this. Based on the mock draft, we did Jack Flaredy as well, Corey Seeger, Walker Bueller, Trevor Story somehow made it there.

Maybe don't include him because we assume he'll be gone in most headset points leagues. But Machado, Gallen, Woodruff, there's a lot of starting pitchers there, Scott. Once you have Bieber on your team first overall, are you looking to double-tap starting pitcher again? Are you looking to open your draft with three starting pitchers if you have the first overall pick in a head to head points league? Actually, Frank, I don't know. We do have ADP for head to head points leagues on CBSSports.com. Okay.

If you're aware of this. I can pull that up. I'll send it to you right now. Did you not want me to do that? No, that's fine. Not though it was there. Here it is. I didn't know if we had enough drafts for it to be accurate data.

so that's what I was thinking about, but... It looks pretty accurate. Offhand, I mean, I haven't studied it closely, but yeah, I do think it's likely story would be there, actually, just because enough starting pitchers

are liable to go, and, you know, guys like Harper who walks a lot, and actually may not strike out that much, Lindor, who doesn't strike out much, there's a good chance they'd go ahead of him. But, you know, my approach in that,

recent head-to-head points draft was basically take all the good starting pitchers until they're gone. I stuck with it for the most part five of my first six picks. I broke late in round three to get Alex Breggman, who of course is a points league standout with the Great Walk to Strikeout ratio. Having only one at this point, again, it's the same group of starting pitchers we're talking about in the roto format, right? That same foursome Luis Castillo, Max Scherzer, Jack Flaherty, Clayton Curshal. If they're already gone, I might still want to take a starting pitcher, at least one, but I did at least be willing to consider a hitter here.

And, you know, Seeger again would be an MX story, of course. Rendon and Bregman, just because this is even a better format for them, I think would be in that discussion as well. I actually prefer both of them in this format to Machado. So I'd look to them before him. And a head-to-ed categories league, Scott, is your... Mindset going to change much from what you would do in a Roto league? No.

Not much. So you basically said that you would take Ronald Acuna, and then if two of Flaherty, Castillo, Kirshaw, Scherzer fell, you would take two of those. So a similar strategy for both Roto and head-to-head categories. Before we get to the second pick, I do just want to remind everybody that we want you to compete with us in our bracket challenge game.

I will be in there. Scott White will be in there. I don't know if Scott knows that he's supposed to be in there, but he will be in there. I hope Chris Towers will be in there as well, and we want you to join us as well. Join us at cbsports.com slash FBT brackets, and the winner gets a $100 gift card to Paramount Plus.

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this podcast, CBSports.com slash FBT brackets. It's got the second overall pick. I'm just going to call it like it is. There's going to be a lot of crossover here between what we're talking about, but let's assume that Ronald Acuna is gone. Who is the name that you are looking for next? Is it Juan Soto or is it Muki Betz? I have mooky bets there because I feel like he's a safer bet for a useful steals total

I know Soto said he wants to run more this year so hopefully he does but that certainly has more of a track record of doing that pretty safe across the board except maybe RBI because we expect him to hit lead off but whatever that's just going to be more run scored that is correct I pulled up the ATC projections for both Soto and bets.

I would take Juan Soto over Mookie Betts, but again, not going to knock anyone for taking either one. Soto projection, 303 batting average, 38 home runs, 110 runs scored, 112 RBI, 14 steals. Mookie Betts, 290 batting average, 33 home runs, 121 run scored, 92 RBI, and 23 steals. So with Soto, a little bit better batting average, a little bit more pop, and more RBI. and for bets, you're getting more steals and more runs scored. So is it the same kind of concept, Scott, when you're coming, if you have the second pick and you have Mookie Betts on your team, are you trying to double down on two starting pitchers there

with picks 23 and 26, that would be, in a roto draft? I am, yeah, basically doing the same thing. I think it's even less likely that I go pitcher, pitcher there, because you've got one guy making two picks after your second pick. and presumably by that point, Flaherty, Kershaw, Castillo, Scherzer, they'll all be gone. So I think it's very likely I'm taking Seeger from this spot. Very likely. Scott and Points League, I assume again, we're taking one of those top three starting pitchers,

one of Cole Bieber or DeGrom. Same thing at the two-three turn. Are you, you're just hoping that one of Flaherty and Luis Castillo, Brandon Woodruff? Would you be willing to pull him up the board at that point? In a points league in round three? Even in round two, right? Just to make sure that you get another pitcher,

another reliable pitcher? I mean, probably, because, you know, if I'm pulling Woodruff that up that far, then it's more likely I'm going to take a hitter, you know, with my third pick because it's probably going to be an awesome one. But yeah, I can't imagine in a head-to-head points league not taking a pitcher with at least two of my first three picks.

Agreed. And I might use all three, but I do like getting that anchor in the third round. That hitter that can just anchor your team, whether it's a Machado or a Seeger or a Bregman or Rendon, whoever you feel best about. But pairing another ace with a de Grom or Cole is definitely something I would be looking at

if you have the second pick in a head-to-head points league. In head-to-head categories, Again, I assume it's just very similar to what you would do in a Roto draft, right, Scott? You're looking at Mookiee Betts and then hoping for either two starting pitchers, but of course it depends who falls. Yeah, I think in the early stages, it's not going to change between head-to-head categories and Roto for me. Five-five, they're both five-by-five scoring leagues, obviously. The biggest difference is head-to-head categories, your lineup's going to be smaller. So maybe you don't have to, you don't have to account for drafting.

so many hitters over the course of the draft, which maybe can allow you to lean into pitchers a little more. Also, I'd be more inclined to punt steals in a head-to-head categories league than I would in Roto. But at the range of picks we're talking about, you know, I'm not going to pass up those obvious steals guys who need to go that high. So it's really not even a consideration yet. So let's just, when we're talking about Roto, we'll lump Roto and heads-to-ed categories together as I say Categories League. Third overall pick, talk about that now.

Roto, head-side categories. According to ADP, Ronald de Cunia, and Tatis are gone. But let's assume Mukhi Betz is gone. Scott, who would you take there if you have the pick between Tatis and Juan Soto? I would go Tatis over Soto. It's not with a lot of conviction.

And it goes to the same reason I've passed up Soto to this point. I think of those four Soto is the least likely for a big steals total. So that's enough to slot him forth for me. According to the Fantasy Pro's ADP, pick 22, Aranoa is still on the board.

So obviously the further we get into the first round as we move 3, 4, there will become better players available in the second round, Scott. So if Aaron Nola were available for you in the second round and you have already Tatease on your team,

is that just a slam dunk for you? slam dunk, yeah. slam dunk, if he falls and if he doesn't I think you're very good chance Scherzer's here that would be a slam dunk

um fortunately I am not so enthusiastic definitely not Machado who tends to who might be available in this range

but even if like Lindor or Harper make it here which is possible um I'm just I'm not convinced I'm going to miss what they provide to me enough

to pass up a big starter like Nola or Scherzer. And obviously, if we're talking about taking Tatis in the first round, there's no chance I'd take Lindor in round two anyway. Yeah, because you already have that short stop on your team, obviously. And then for round three, picking from the third spot, right? Yep.

Seeger is hopeful. Rondone and Bregman are likely. I think LeMayhue is in that discussion, too. We haven't talked about him yet. He tends to go earlier than those others. And I actually would prefer Seeger to him straight up. But if for some reason Seeger's already gone, LeMayhew, getting that big advantage at second base,

and then position like that, I think he's also in the mix. But have to take a starting pitcher in round two. Could maybe go away from it in round three, especially if we're talking about a 12-team league. But you're going to have to go pretty heavy after at starting pitcher if you decide to do that. if you decide to take just one with your first three picks.

For me, if you have the third pick in a Roto or Headside Categories League, I would take bets if he fell, obviously. I have Soto ranked ahead of him. So if Soto's there, I would take Soto ahead of Fernando Tatis, but really would like to get two starting pitchers in the round two, three range. And haven't mentioned it, but for me, it's because I really like the hitters that go in rounds four and five. Guys like Tim Anderson and Starling Marte and George Springer,

Glaver Torres, that's why a lot of this offseason we've spent talking about, you know, taking starting pitchers early, it's because I really, really like the mid-round value for hitters. So if I can get, ideally, it would be two of my top, that 12 range that ends with Gowan and Brandon Woodruff. You know, if I could get Nolan the second and then one of those starting pitchers in the third, I would love to do so.

Once you get into the Kentimaeata conversation, I'm probably looking at a hitter there in the third. Yeah, I mean, part of the issue with that is I think I have Kenta Maeda quite a bit higher than you do, and I might have Carlos Carrasco quite a bit higher. So, you know, after that foursome of pitchers, we keep talking about Scherzor-Castio Flaherty, Kershaw. I got Maeda Woodruff and Carrasco slotting in right after that. ADP shows Blake Snell, Tyler Glass now going in that same range and maybe pushing those guys, especially Maida,

and Carasco down. So, you know, I think it's very likely you'll get Maida or Carasco in round four. Carasco maybe even later. And that's why I might be a little more willing to take a hitter in round three in a Roto league if it came to that, you know, if it just, if I just didn't like the value of the starting pitchers because Scherzor Castillo Flaherte, Kershaw, they're all gone by round three

after I hopefully took one in round two. Then, sure, give me Seeger, give me LeMayhew if he's there, give me either the two-third baseman. In a head-to-head points league, again, we're still talking about the third pick. So whoever falls between Beaver and Cole and DeGrom, similar to what we said about the first and second pick,

if any of those starting pitchers fall between Castillo and Flaherty, You know, obviously you want to take them there in the second round. You want as many starting pitchers in a Head-Dead Points League, reliable ones as you could possibly get. But I don't really think it's very dissimilar than what we said about the first and second pick. So we can move on to number four. And is this just, Scott, if you have the fourth pick in a Roto or Head-Dead Categories League, is this just whoever falls at this point between Acuna, Betz, Tatis, and Soto, I assume?

Mm-hmm. In that format, yeah. So you're not taking DeGrom or Garrick-Cole over any of those four names. I don't think so. I just think the overall production, counting on the steals, and so does case you're hoping for like a plus plus batting average. Maybe it'll only be 290, but you know, it could be 3.30. So, yeah, I don't think with a top four pick,

I could pass those up in a traditional 5 by 5 league as much as I want high-end pitching. And so Soto would be my pick here, you know, unless Tatis or bets last instead. And much like we've said for the other picks to this point, I mean, the one that becomes available based on ADP is Walker Bueller. We've talked about Bueller a lot so far. And we are, it seems to be down on him. Then the rest of the industry, Scott has Walker Bueller 12th in his rankings. I have Walker Bueller 12th. And Chris actually has. At starting pitcher. At starting pitcher. At starting pitcher. And Chris has Walker Bueller all the way down at 14. So we are down on him and we're not going to be looking at him with this 21 ADP.

So we would continue to do a lot of what we have said to this point already. We're skipping over names like Boba Chet because we think he's overvalued in this second, third round range. Anyway, ideally for me, whoever falls of those top four hitters, if I, again, can get Nola or Flaherty, two of those, even a Kershaw, something I would be looking to do here. Head-to-ed points, this is kind of where the draft starts, right, Scott? So after the big three starting pitchers, Cole Bieber, and DeGrom, who do you take? Do you take Wantsodo

fourth overall on a points league? Trout, bets. It's Soto for you? It's Wants Soto. Yeah, it originally was Trout. And those are the big three hitters for this format.

I think Soto, Trout, and Bets, because they stand out so much for their plate discipline, which matters more than stolen bases at this format, in this format. But stolen bases are still great. There still worth two points apiece.

So really, it was Soto's comment that he plans to steal more bases this year. Not because I necessarily, trust him to steal more, but because I think that take that as a good indication, he won't steal less, which was always a concern of mine with him. And I think he actually has the best plate discipline of those three. When I say play discipline, I'm talking strikeout to walk ratio specifically, not necessarily total number of walks. You know, plate discipline can mean a few different things.

Trout's probably going to have the highest total number of walks. But in terms of walks to strikeouts, I think Soto might actually be the best of the three in that area. So I go with him, number one, among hitters, after the three pitchers are gone and head-to-head points. And I agree. I would take Soto as well. And I shared this stat on Trout and Betts before. They are the only two hitters in the CBS scoring format

over the past three years that have averaged at least four fantasy points per game in each of those years. So just super consistent elite production from Trout and Betts as well. I think Juan Soto is getting ready to enter that category, that conversation as well. And once, if I get... Over how many points per game? Over four fantasy points per game.

Okay. Okay. I thought I heard something different. Yeah, Trout and bets are the only, only two hitters in general that I've done that over the past three years in each of the past three years. If I get, if I get Juan Soto with my first pick in a points league, Scott, I might take four starting pitchers in a row in round two, three, four, and five. Just because I feel so good about that, that hitter, that first hitter that I have,

Even if it's a matter of pulling guys up the board in ADP, I don't really think that I would... You're passing up on some good hitters. I realize that. Machado in round three, if he follows story in round three. But I really do think I'd be willing to take four pitchers in a row from rounds two to five if I have soda on my team. Yeah.

I agree. I will at least go so as far as to say, I don't have a problem with anyone else choosing to go all starting pitchers until the good ones are gone. I'm saying there may be points in there where the hitter value is too good to pass up. Like, I decided with Bregman in round three

for a points league. I think it's more likely to happen in round three than round two because I think most of the hitters that are likely to go in round three, especially in a points league, but really in both formats.

I value the round three. hitters about as much as the round two hitters. I think they're all they're all on the verge of being round one hitters basically. So yeah, yeah. And then round three really starts to thin out with the starting pitchers because then you're

potentially reaching, I'm potentially reaching for Maida or Carrasco, somebody else is going for like a Snell or Glass now who I don't trust at their ADP. So yeah, round three is really the round in both formats where I might be the most likely to take a hitter. But, you know, the main thing I would say about picking fourth in a head-to-head points league

provided that the big three starting pitchers go one, two, and three. Like, this is not a point where I'm pulling my number four pitcher, Trevor Bauer, up. Correct. So, regardless, like, I'll take my chances that there's not a huge starting pitcher run for the rest of round one and early in round two, and I'm left with Kenta Maida as my round two ace.

I'll take my chances on that because I think the highest end hitters are too valuable, even in a points league, to pass up at that point. And on the other side of that coin, if any of the big three starting pitchers fall to you and pick four of your head-toe points league, you should take them and you should feel very good about it. The fifth pick in a roto and head-to-head category context, let's assume now the top four hitters are gone, Acuna Soto, Betz Tatis. Is this where you start to consider Shane Bieber, who you have as your number one starting

pitcher, Scott, or would you still include Mike Trout in this mix? No, I think I'd go pitcher with my next three picks here. That would be picks five, six, and seven in a Rotel League. Yep. Obviously, I have Bieber first. I have DeGrom second. I have Cole third. So I'd take Bieber first because obviously I'm not getting him around too.

If I rank him first, I'd take him a little out of order here with pick five. And, yeah, I don't see myself going for Trout. I don't see myself going for Tray Turner to get that early advantage. and stolen bases. I think the scarcity's built into the starting pitcher position just don't allow for you to do that as nice as it would be. I think you'll run into problems later if you pass up the chance at a starting pitcher here.

And then in round two, I think it's very likely, again, because I don't love the second round hitters. It's very likely I'm going pitcher pitcher here. It's very likely I'm pairing a Bieber with somebody like Aaron. and Nola or potentially even Scherzer if Nola's already gone. And assuming Udarvish is gone, Lucas Gialito's gone, that's probably what I'm looking at a round two. And then in round three, I'm almost certainly taking a hitter,

whether it's Seeger, LeMayhew. I feel like I mentioned all the same guys here. Figer, LeMayhew, Bregman, Rendon. I suppose if Bo Bouchet made it to this point in round three, that might be when I start to consider him because the reason he gets pushed up is because you're hoping for steals from him. I don't think he's likely for a huge steals total,

but 15 to 20. Okay, I could see that. And, like, there's no reason to reach for him with those first four-hitter, because you're already getting a good steals total from them, right? But if we're in the point where we're beyond that, we're taking a starting pitcher and we don't have that early steals advantage,

maybe Bichette makes sense. I want to do it in round two, but if he's there in round three, maybe. Who would you take between Bichette and Corey Seeger, Scott? Seeger. Even in a Roto League? I think Seeger's my pick for an LMPP this year. I think he's going to be amazing.

I'm starting to get those vibes too, man. He is crushing it in the spring right now. He hit his fifth home run, spring training on Monday. And, man, I just think that while he's not going to give you any steals for that type of format in a Roto or head-to-head categories, he's perfect for me in round three in a head-to-head categories because I love to punt steals. so he just fits that build perfectly.

Corey Seeger does. But even if he doesn't give you steals in a Roto League, I am starting to think he's just going to be a monster four category contributor. Batting average, home runs, runs, RBI. I could all just see just massive coming from Corey Seeger this year. I did want to ask, Scott. So we'll just lump all these picks together.

Pick 5, 6, and 7 because assuming you take a starting pitcher in round 1, what hitter needs to be available in round 2 where you actually consider that hitter instead of, going pitcher because you said, well, a lot of the hitters that are in round two are similar to guys that I can get in round three. Yeah. So the main hitters that go in the early to mid range of round two are,

so you're basically talking about Cody Bellinger, Francisco Lindor, Price Harper. Yep. I think they're all fine. I do have concerns about Bellinger because of the shoulder stuff going on with him. I think they're all fine in the second round. I just don't think they really meet scarcities in a way that I'd prefer to do in the early rounds,

whether it's pitchers, whether it's stolen bases, whether it's batting average. None of them are a good bet for any of... Lindor, Belanger, Harper, they're not going to be a zero for steals, but they're probably not going to give you a huge steals total, right?

So, to me, it's not worth giving up a potential Cy Young caliber pitcher for that. So it would probably have to be like Freddie Freeman If he made it He's not going to make it this deep into round two Right

Well picking six seven and eight Yeah very unlikely he's going to make it This deep into round two But if he was there Particularly if I went pitcher in round one That would be too hard to pass up Let's look at it Yeah that's the most likely one to fall right

And like obviously Jose Ramirez Trevor Story and they're not going to fall I doubt it Yeah Yep so Freeman is that's the cutoff point for Scott Where okay If he has a mid-first-round pick in a road over head-toe category's league, he takes the starting pitcher. He would be willing to pull the trigger on Freeman.

Some crazy twist of fate, Freeman falls to the middle of round two. Sure. It might happen. You might be drafting in a league full of Scott White's that are all taking starting pitchers and pulling them up the board. But if that happens, then Freeman might be falling in your drafts. And a head-to-ed points league, Scott, if we're in the middle here, again, I assume that spoke about it a little bit. Big three starting pitchers are off the board. we're not pulling Bauer.

We are looking at names like Soto and Trout. Those are Soto Trout and Betts. That's basically the 4, 5, and 6 here, right? In a points league. In a points league, Soto, Trout, and Betts. Yeah. 4, 5 and 6. Mm-hmm.

How about right, once you get past that, you're still looking at Acuna and Tatis before you're taking, Trevor Bauer. Bauer. Right. I think so. Yeah, that that gets a little harder.

Their plate discipline isn't great. They strike out a fair amount so that pulls them down in this form, and obviously you're not elevating them because of stolen bases. It helps their point total, but they're not essential, like they are in Roto leagues. So Tatea and Seneca and Kunauna are as valuable in this, and in head-to-head points as they are in Roto. But they're still really valuable.

They're still capable. still, they're still capable of four points per game, you know. They might finish a little shy of that, but they're right in that range. So I probably do still take them over a starting pitcher. I think it gets a little easier because if, if it's played out that way, we're here in the middle of round one, and it's played out the three starting pitchers went, and then Soto, Trout and Betts in some order, everybody's following the script. right? Like nobody

nobody else has jumped in there and grabbed the fourth starting pitcher so you're not going to get this you're a little more hopeful there's not going to be this wild starting pitcher run that boxes you out in round two. We're talking about picking seventh in round one right now so we're in round two

that comes out to 18th 17th I think there's a good you can feel pretty confident Nola or Gialito will be there if not you Darvish, I think.

So yeah, I think I would still go hit her seventh in a points league. And I had the ninth pick in our head-to-head points mock that we did last week, and Fernando Tatis fell all the way to me at pick nine. But Akunia went seventh,

Mukhi Betts win sixth. Jose Ramirez actually went eighth. Is he in this discussion? Yeah, I was going to say, is he in this discussion? Who would you take, Scott, if you're on the board, Jose Ramirez or Trevor Bauer,

those are the best two players. is available in a points league. I think Ramirez. The thing you gotta remember about Ramirez is he hardly strikes out at all. He was 4.37 points per game last year. He was behind just Freeman. And Soto.

Soto and Freeman were number one and two among hitters and points per game. And then Ramirez was third. And like, you know, Ramirez was third, batting only 2.92. So it's not like he had some crazy outlier batting average.

Yeah. This is something I have yet to decide completely. But I think I include, in addition to Betts and Tatis, I mean, I'm sorry, in addition to Acuna and Tatis in a points league, I include Jose Ramirez, Freddie Freeman, and I think even Christian Yellich, among the hitters I would take ahead of Trevor Bauer in a points league. Obviously in a Rotter League, but we're talking about a points league here.

Mm-hmm. Yeah, I am with you too. I think if I'm on, I have Nola as my SP4, so I wouldn't even be considering Trevor Bauer at that point, but that would be pick nine or ten. I would, I would take Jose Ramirez over whatever pitcher is available and then hope. And I think one of those, you know, between Darvish and Nola and Gile, you know, someone will fall back to you in the second round. And then again, I have that awesome hitter and I'm just going to load up on, on pitchers for the next two, at least, I I would say at least two rounds, maybe even three or four. Yeah, and plus the thing to remember two is when you get to round three, so we've kind of jumped ahead a little bit. We're in what? We're in the round seven, eight, nine, ten range of a points league right now. Yep. The thing to remember two is not only in round two are you still hopeful of getting a Nolan or Gialito or Darvish type,

but then in round three, presumably Seeger is going to be gone. It's not even going to be an option. I would say since Rendon, since a points league is the better format for Rendon and Bregman, pretty good chance they're gone too. So it's very likely that is the appropriate point to go into the Maida Woodruff. Maybe Carasco class of starting pitcher. It would really depend on whether Breggman and Rendon were still there. I might hold out another round if one of them was still there late in round three

and try to grab my second pitcher in round four and then maybe just draft pitchers round five, six, and seven. You know, once you start getting into that Sandy Alcantara, Kevin Gosman group, then you're pretty much run out of good pitchers at that point, pitchers you can really count on. So it may not make it all the way to round six or seven.

But that's what I'm thinking for late in round one at a points league. But it's also worth mentioning Scott that if you take Jose Ramirez in the first, at that point you're not looking at Bregman or Rendon anymore because you don't want to fill your utility spot. Yeah, probably not. All righty, we are going to take a quick break, but do just want to remind you that you can download our fantasy baseball today draft prep guide, which is free and it is on the site right now. You can find it.

CBSports.com slash FBB draft kit. And it has all of our rankings, tiers, strategies. it has a draft tracker. You can write down all your draft picks as they go along. Same thing in a salary cap draft. You can keep track of how much money you have left throughout your salary cap draft.

And again, you can find that. The link is cbsports.com slash FBBDraft Kit. And we're going to take a quick break. If you are watching on the video side, don't go anywhere. But if you're listening on the podcast, when we return,

we do have some news and notes here on Fantasy Baseball today. probably the most interesting thing that I saw, and we'll get back to the end of the first round, we'll wrap up the show with the end of the first round, what to do there. But the most interesting thing that I saw right before we started, Scott,

was that A. E. E. Oh, Hennio Swaris will start at shortstop for the Reds on Tuesday, and he does have a history of playing shortstop. I believe the last time he did so was back in 2018. And what they're planning is that Mike Mustakis will slide over to third base, and prospect Jonathan, India will start at second for the Reds. what is the trickle-down effect here?

Obviously, we, I mean, if this is something they're actually considering, we're getting some more eligibility from Suarez. Yeah, big eligibility. I mean, we talk about shortstop being deep. It's really more like it's top-heavy. You get into a league of any real size, and it drops off pretty fast, pretty fast.

There's a big 13 we talk about through Dansby-Swanson, and then it really drops off after that. So, you know, adding Suarez to that mix would be huge. I don't know, and I don't think anyone on the Reds beat knows if this is just like,

just given Suarez some looks at shortstop in case it's something they fall into in the regular season, or if this is like a plan. But I'm kind of piecing this together here. David Bell, the Reds manager, said Sunday that there were no plans to play Jonathan India,

the prospect who's been general rating a lot of buzz in camp. It's a third baseman, naturally. I think it was the fifth overall pick a few years back. Yep. No plans to play Jonathan India at shortstop. That's what David Bell said Sunday. So we know it's not going to be India

at shortstop. You know, obviously playing Suarez at shortstop, you shift moustakis back to third base. You play India at second. I know I said he's a natural third baseman, but second is what he's been playing most in camp. And, you know, that takes care of the problem

right there. If they're looking to find a way to get Jonathan India in the lineup, and it's not like they have great options at shortstop. It's like Kyle Farmer, D. Strange Gordon. Like, nobody, like Jose Garcia, they don't think he's ready, clearly, because he's not in the mix, even.

You either go with a bad shortstop offensively or take a defensive hit there with Suarez, but get Jonathan India in the lineup. Who's a good OBP guy, apparently his power, they saw improvement as a power hitter at the alternate site last year. and he's having a big spring.

It would be interesting. I certainly like that plan more for fantasy because of the improved eligibility for Suarez. Bustakis is actually lacking third base eligibility right now, so it would be improved eligibility for him. And then you're going to get India up as a late round flyer, middle infield option, only eligible third base right now,

but second base soon enough. I like that plan. If that does actually come to pass, the next couple weeks play out, and that becomes more of a certainty, I think India is going to be an interesting late-round pick. I'd still prefer like Brendan Rogers of the Rockies, but India's upside's interesting.

Jonathan India, former first round pick. He was the fifth overall pick back in 2018. The minor league numbers have been a little underwhelming for India, but 259. On day skills is the main thing. That's just such a good foundational skill that if you start to improve as a hitter, if you start gaining power,

which is really easy skill to cultivate, at the major league level, then you're really on to something. And he runs a little bit. Back in 2019, he had 11 steals along with 11 home runs in the minors. So remember the name, Jonathan India. He is free right now.

So just pay attention. Let's stick with the Reds. Apparently outfielder Shogo Akiyama will be sidelined a few weeks with a hamstring injury. And this is all but assuring he will open the season on the IL. And that should solidify playing time

for both Nick Henzel and Jesse Winker. early on in the season. So the Reds are an interesting team. Some fun there. Nick Senzel. I think he's been rising up draft boards a little bit, but he's still going super late. 257.2 is the ADP. Another former first round pick.

Health has been an issue. Bit of a power speed combination. I like Nick Senzel. Yeah, he was among my 12 post type sleepers along with Brendan Rogers that I wrote about last week. We know he has some speed. It's just how much power. It's kind of a question

how much power he's going to provide because it was a little underwhelming as a rookie in 2019. But there's 20-20 potential there and maybe even helping and batting average. Did you write about Spencer Howard as well, Scott? I did. Well, you might be a bad luck charm then

because Spencer Howard was scheduled to throw two innings on Monday against the Yankees, but he was scratched due to back spasms. So that's now Spencer Howard and Brendan Rogers that you have jinxed. So come on, Scott. Knock it off. I know.

I know. A few other players were scratched on Monday. Just pay attention to see what's happening there. Luis Robert, it was scratched with a lower abdominal strain. Catelle Marte left Monday's action after being hit by a pitch on his foot. There is no update yet there. Christian Yelich with the Brewers was scratched from the lineup Monday's game. But he wasn't hurt.

So I'm not going to speculate and say automatically it's a COVID situation, but just pay attention. I mean, I don't know what reason he was scratched for. again, that is Christian Yellich. Zander Bogartz has been dealing with a shoulder injury. He could appear in a game at shortstop as soon as Wednesday. So hoping to see Zander Bogart's back healthy. That would definitely help. A's manager Bob Melvin suggested on Sunday that A.J. Puck will be the top candidate to begin the season as the A's fifth starter.

If Mike Fires, who is dealing with a hip injury, is placed on the injured list. It's not sounding good for Mike Fires right now. So, Scott, we might actually get a special. barp here in AJ puck we might yeah yeah

I don't they were wanting to preserve his innings and talking about beginning the year in the bullpen

so I'm still reluctant to get excited about him because I don't know how long he'll be in the

rotation like even if he pitches well I just don't think they want to put those kinds of inning that kind of

inning on that many innings on his arm this year with all the injury problems he's had

and with as little as he threw last year. So, yeah, it's kind of, I have kind of a lukewarm response to this, I guess. Puck, very exciting talent. I just don't, I just don't know that you can count on him being an asset for you all year long. Jared Kellnick, top prospect for the Seattle Mariners is dealing with a knee injury. He will hit again on, he hit again today on Monday and to get into a game later in the week. so we were excited about Kelnick

and then he got diagnosed with this knee injury so hopefully he can get healthy and then I still think assuming he is healthy that he will be up earlier in the season than later so pay attention to that situation Lorenzo Kane has been dealing with a quad injury he is scheduled to appear in a game

this weekend this upcoming Saturday Scott I just kind of have this feeling that the Brewers are just going to take it easy on Lorenzo Kane all year obviously they have depth now with Jackie Bradley and Avicayel Garcia Christian Yelich is on the team. 35 years old, he's getting up there.

I just, I don't think Lorenzo Kane's going to be an everyday player this year. Hmm. You may be right. You may be right. I probably, you know, I don't rank him high. I rank it as like a fifth outfielder in Roto, but I find I'm not enthusiastic about taking him. You know, it's kind of a, it's kind of a, he fits a difficult need at that stage of the draft, and then he's likely to be a plus contributor in batting average and stolen bases.

But you're right. that there may be playing time concerns there at his age and with their outfield depth. Players on a tear outside of Corey Seeger, who I wanted to mention. We already talked about him. Shohei Otani hit two opposite field home runs on Monday off of Michael Lorenzen.

The guy is just raking Otani, man. He is fun to watch. I don't know if we've talked about this with Otani, but like Joe Madden has talked about getting rid of the rules that used to apply when Otani was a two-way player. Okay. Like he wouldn't start as a deep.

before the day he pitched or after the day he pitched. And so his chances to contribute as a hitter were limited. Now it sounds like they're just going to play it by ear. Like Otani's going to tell him how he's feeling, which could mean he's DH most days he's not pitching. And that's something that I don't think is being accounted for in drafts. Like even if it doesn't work out for him, a pitcher this year.

Like, there's a good chance. He's like a 25-20 guy as a hitter. Yeah. I think that's highly possible. Oh, yeah. Otani is awesome. And you kind of throw last year out because he was obviously dealing with some stuff.

Everyone was dealing with some stuff. Yeah. 848 OPS in 2019, 925 OPS in 114 games in 2018. You know, Tani, when he's a hitter, when he plays, he's awesome. There is no doubt about that. it's just a matter of him.

How much is he going to play? We need volume. We need volume out of him. And if you play on CBS, if you play in a weekly league, you have to decide every week, whether you want to use him at starting pitcher or if you want to use him as a utility bat.

So that gives you another decision point every single week. Do you want to have that on your plate? Maybe it's worth it on the upside. But it is something that, you know, if you play in a daily lineup league, it's much easier to be excited about him because obviously you could just plug them in everywhere and reap all.

the benefits. Again, that is Shohay Otani. Let's go back to our discussion of how to draft from each draft slide. We spoke a little bit more deeper into the first round on head-toe points leagues. Let's look at if you are towards the back half of the draft in a roto or a head-to-categories league, Scott.

And assuming that at this point, pick 10 to 12, Shane Bieber's gone, Garikola's gone, Trey Turner is gone. Once you get into that Christian Yellich, Jose Ramirez, Trevor Story range of players, How do you rank those three first in a Categories League, Yelich, Ramirez, and Story?

And would you be looking to pair them up with one of those starting pitchers early in the second round? So I actually rank Ramirez the lowest of the three. For shame. Partly because he plays third base, and I don't want to block myself out of Regman and Rendon. Like, that's really the biggest reason for it, I think. Story, you know, I could see him getting moved down

because you're fearful, he'll get traded mid-season. Yelich. I mean, Yelich obviously has the most upside of the three, but it's kind of rough last year with the strikeouts. I think I go story Yelich and Ramirez. There has yet to be a scenario where I've had to take any of them, because it just so happens that if I've picked in this range, Bieber's made it there every time. And like, I'm obviously not passing up my number one starting pitcher if he's there for them. but that's how I rank them. Story, Yelich, Ramirez. I'm kind of lean in Yelich, though, as we're talking right now.

I'm kind of feeling like Yelich should be who I rank first of those three. Yeah, I feel like I've been more down on Yelich than everyone else this offseason. I don't dislike him. I just think when comparing him to these other guys, Ramirez, I really don't have any doubts at this point. It was just such a weird year for Yelch. Maybe we should just get rid of it and it's not a big deal. but... For two years prior to that,

he was better than... He was the best hitter in baseball. Yeah, he was. He was. He was. And he stole bases and... Yeah. There's a chance that this knee injury

that he suffered towards the end of 2019 where he fractured his kneecap, he hit a foul ball off of his knee. There's a chance that that is something that was lingering. Um, he has said openly that he struggled

without in-game video last year. This is Christian Yelich we're talking about. So if we're going to give the benefit of the doubt to guys like J.D. Martinez and Javier, or bias, there will be in-game video for hitters this season, then we probably should do the same thing for Yelich. And I don't just like him. It's just, I, for

some reason, I feel a little bit more confident in the other two. I think they're all really good. I think they can all be potential five category hitters. Yep. That is Jose Ramirez, Story, and Yelich. And that is the order that I would take them in as well. Once you take those guys, you're probably looking at a

Bauer, a Darvish, Gellito, or Nola in round two. Even if Freeman falls, right? I mean, you got to get a starting pitcher at that point. Yeah, I think you have to, especially how good those starting pitchers are. Yeah, I can't imagine going hitter-hitter in any format. But, yeah, especially not, especially not given the caliber of starting pitcher that's sure to be there,

picking eighth, ninth, tenth, right? Is that what we're talking about? More so just a back in here. Ninth, 11th. Yeah. Let's give people a little bit more of a bonus here with the, say you have, Vermeerese and Bauer on your team. If you're at the 3-4 turn,

are you looking to get to grab one-in-one, another hitter and another starting pitcher? Of course, it's dependent on who's there. Well, I have to try and get a pitcher, I think. I would be okay reaching for Maida as early as round four, Carrasco, if it came to that. Certainly Woodruff as early as round four. And there are times I've taken Maida and round three

just because of the way the draft was unfolding. I didn't feel confident he'd even make it to me in round four. So you've got to get at least one. You got to get a least one. Going pitcher pitcher here in round three, four, late round three, early round four in a roto league. You know, maybe taking Maida and Carrasco. It would depend who else is there.

Like if, assuming Bregman, Rendon, Seeger, certainly may, LeMay, he was probably long gone at this point. Assuming they're all gone, you're talking about, the hitters you're talking about are Adalberto Mondesie, Witt-Maryfield, maybe like a Marcelo Zuna. That's kind of the hitter class we're dipping into. If I already had some steals locked up with Ramirez in round one,

or even yell at your story, then I don't think I'd be that tempted by Adelberto Mondece or Whitmeryfield at the end of round three. I just think. I already got a nice head start for steals. They're going to be chances to get some later. I'd rather either go into the starting pitcher scarcity or get like a huge bat, like a Marcel Ozuna at this point.

Yeah, I don't think you could go wrong with a lot of the hitters that are going in this range. Even Kyle Tucker is going to give you a bit of a power speed combination. But Ozuna for sure, if you just want some power, George Springer can give you some pop. Not going to hurt your batting average. gonna score a lot of runs in the Blue Jays lineup. So that's someone that you can look at.

I think if I can pair, if I can get Woodruff or Galen towards the end of round three to pair with whoever I got is my starting pitcher in round two. So if my team started Ramirez, Bauer, Gallin, and then somehow, if like Merrifield fell, I don't think I would mind that, Scott.

I mean, because then you just have a really nice head star on both batting average and steals. And that affords you the luxury to take power bats later on that are probably going to hurt your batting average. So I think that's probably the route that I would go. But I really don't think there's a wrong answer with taking Ozuna or someone like Springer either. Yeah. I agree.

It is mostly about I wouldn't want to miss out. So we're talking about the round three, four turn here, right? If Gallin, Woodruff, Maida are there. I think either with my third pick or more likely fourth pick with Maeda, I have to take them because I don't know what starting pitcher is going to look like, you know, 20 picks from now, 25, 22, 22, 23 picks from now. And I wouldn't want to miss my chance on an impactful starting pitcher like that. Carrasco, I could maybe push it a little more with him. It depends on how many pitchers I have at that point.

Because I've seen Carasco fall to five, six. That's happened before. It doesn't always happen, but I've seen it. I'm not as tempted by Snell or Glass now. I know they tend to go earlier than some of the pitchers I'm talking about. Lance Lynn, not as tempted by him. That's more something I'd consider late round four, early round five, in a Roto League, those guys, just depending on need.

But yeah, what really gets interesting is let's say you went pitcher-pitcher or Freeman pitcher in round one and two. You got Freeman Bauer, you got Bauer Gialito, something like that. Then what are you talking about in round three, the end of round three? If Gall and Woodruff's still there, you know, I probably would still take one if it was a Freeman in a pitcher. But if it was pitcher-pitcher, pitcher, probably not. Probably I'm taking an Alberto Mondesier with Maryfield to get some steals because they don't have them yet. and then I'm still probably taking a pitcher in round four, but maybe not.

If I went pitcher, pitcher, base dealer, then in round four, I might do something like Mondi. I might do something like Aloi Jimenez, if he's still there, you know? Let's see what other hitters tend to be in that range. You know what's fun?

If you put together Ozuna and Mondi, that's kind of just like an awesome five-tool player, right? I mean, you cover all bases there. Maybe not. Yeah, I mean, obviously you're not accounting for any downside with Osuna, which, you know, I see him more as a B for batting, a B grade for batting average than an A grade for batting average like he was last year. I think that's fairer to put on him.

But obviously, a lot of power, no speed. So that could work, but that would only be, I would only pair up at Alberto Mondesie and Osuna at the three, four turn if I went pitcher, pitcher in round one. Oh, right. Freeman pitcher, then I think I got to get another pitcher here between rounds three and four. Let's just end with this email that we got from Jet

and I thought it was relevant because we were talking about how to draft from all these different kind of draft picks today. And he said, I had an idea for when you happened to get the 12th pick in a head-to-head points league that I'm pretty sure Mr. White could get behind. I decided to pick one hitter

and one pitcher on each turn and I seem to really like my team. I got Freddie Freeman and you, Darvish at the 1-2, and then Alex Bregman and Kent and Maeda through four rounds. Do you think this strategy is good for points leagues? He also went on to say, I'm just going to keep doing that as one hitter and one

pitcher for, you know, until he fills up his pitching spots at least. So how would you feel about that start, Scott, if you did have it in a points league? Freeman, Darvish, Bregman, Maeda. With those specific hitters, I think it's fine because they're both first round caliber hitters for that format, I feel like.

I think I'd go very heavy after pitching after that, basically only drafting them until all the good ones are gone. I also would be reluctant to go into the draft with this plan in mind because you don't know how everyone else is going to behave. Sometimes in these head-to-head points leagues, pitchers get pushed way, way, way up. And like that's, I know sometimes there's this zig-goal while everyone else zaggs approach showing, oh, well, I'll just take all the great hitters you guys are passing up. But I just don't think you can do that at starting pitchers because once all the good pitchers are gone, they're

gone and you're not going to have a chance to fill that position with a quality option again. I'm telling Chris, telling Chris that you're talking bad about him, Scott. So, yeah, I would not want to get left out of a starting pitcher run. I would rather lead the run than miss it. We are going to wrap there, but I do just want to remind everyone that if you want to come hang out and watch our live roto salary cap draft tomorrow, you can do so. We're going to start a little bit earlier than we usually do 7 p.m. Eastern time because it's probably going to take somewhere between four and five hours. We are not going to broadcast the entire thing, but somewhere between 60 and 120 minutes, hopefully keep it to like an hour and a half of what we're

actually broadcasting. But it's going to be crazy because I'm going to be trying to make bids. These guys are going to have to talk while I'm making bids. It's going to be intense. Adam Azer will not be on the podcast, but he will be part of tomorrow's salary cap draft. So we can rip apart his team and that'll be a lot of fun as well. So for Scott, I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.