Fantasy Baseball Today - How to Value Players Plus Drafting Aces with Bat Flip Crazy! (11/25 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: November 25, 2020

Happy Thanksgiving to everybody out there! We continue our offseason of guests with Toby aka Bat Flip Crazy. Perhaps the Hot Stove is starting to heat up as Charlie Morton signed with the Atlanta Braves (2:58). What do you need to know about Ha-Seong Kim from the KBO? ... Today on the show we're focusing on valuation processes and, in particular, Standings Gain Points (9:28). What is SGP and how can I use it to my advantage in Fantasy Baseball? ... Why does Toby advocate for drafting two starting pitchers with his first two picks (20:25)? ... Speaking of aces, how do we rank Cole-Bieber-deGrom (28:20)? ... Are there any Top-12 starting pitchers that Toby is fading (32:10)? Why does the market seem split on Aaron Nola? ... Along with drafting aces, Toby makes the case for drafting J.T. Realmuto (42:42). ... We finish the show with our Top-5 Thanksgiving side dishes (48:18)! ... Email us at [e-mail]. Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive, center field, and swing. This is magnificent. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam.

If you ever wondered what SGP or Z scores were in fantasy baseball, then you've come to the right place. Welcome, everybody. It's Wednesday, November. 25th, Frank Stamphle here, wishing you all a happy and healthy Thanksgiving. And before we dive in, I just want to thank all of our listeners and viewers for your support throughout this wacky 2020 season. It really was a crazy one.

It's cliche, but without you, none of this is possible. And most of you have been very welcoming to me in my first season here at CBS, so I do truly thank you for that. I mentioned we. It's Bubba and the Batflip Week here on Fantasy Baseball today. We had Bubba join us on Monday. which means today we have Toby, aka Bat Flip Crazy, joining us.

Of course, the host of the Bat Flip Crazy podcast. It can also be heard on Benched with Bubba. Make sure to follow Toby on Twitter at Batflip Crazy. And we're both closing in on 8,000 Twitter followers. So I'm not going to say let's race there, but can we both just get to AK? So anyone listening to this, go follow Toby at Batflip Crazy. Follow me on Twitter at Rodo underscore Frank.

Toby, Batflip Crazy, whatever you want to be called. You let me know right now. What's going on? Oh, Toby's totally fine. And Frank, thanks so much for having me. I really appreciate it. And I would just say, follow Frank. You don't have to follow me at Bath of Crazy. I've been like at, you know, close to 8,000 for a while and people have finally realized that, you know, following me isn't all it's cracked up to be. Oh, he's so humble. Everyone, don't listen to him. Well, listen to what he's about to say throughout the course of the podcast. But don't listen to what he just said. Make sure you go follow him on Twitter. And I realized I have never, ever

heard your last name. So to me, you're like, share. Your only name is Toby. You only have one name. That's it. I love it. My last name is hard to, it's hard to pronounce. And so I spare people the trouble of doing that. So Toby works just great. All right. So today on the show, very unique edition of the podcast, what we have going on here. We have some news and some notes. We had a decent size signing today with Charlie Morton. We'll get into that. We also have some player analysis to dive into. But game theory for season long fantasy baseball, specifically in roto leagues and different valuation processes.

We're going to take a look at some different things here. And it might not be what you're used to hearing here on the podcast, but I think it's going to be interesting and unique and fun. And I'm looking forward to it. And I tweeted even before we started that my head is already spinning, trying to figure this stuff out. So hopefully Toby can help us figure those things out. News and notes.

Charlie Morton signs with the Atlanta Braves one year $15 million joining Drew Smiley as the other one-year contract that they've signed. And the Braves have really become synonymous with these one-year deals the past couple of seasons. Marcel O'Suna in 2020, Josh Donaldson in 2019. Both of those worked out very well. Toby, it was an up-and-down season for Charlie Morton, but he finished very strong in the postseason. 2.70 ERA.

We saw the fastball velocity. get back up there, 95 miles per hour in the postseason. His early ADP, 164.1 as SP 52 off the board over at the NFBC. Do you have interest in Charlie Morton? And how much do you think he moves up? Because I think people were a little worried that he was going to retire and he might not return. I think he's undoubtedly going to move up. How much is he going to move up?

Yeah, I mean, I think I was interested in Morton at his previous cost. he's definitely going to move up. I'm actually in the middle of a draft right now, a draft and hold. And I think he went around pick 130. So he's already moved up about 25 spots with today's news. You know, Morton has been a guy, I think, for the last few years that I've been interested in. I had some shares of him last year before, you know, we had kind of the COVID shutdown.

I think the big thing with him is the velocity. You highlighted that. You know, he was 95 miles per hour in the playoffs. We saw kind of the old Charlie Morton that we'd gotten used to in Houston. early in the season, though, he looked awful. I remember I had him in a couple leagues, and the minute he started throwing and he was like 93-5 or so, I knew that he was in trouble because he needs that fastball to be great.

He's got the curve ball. He's got a lot of different pitches that he can go to. But if the fastball isn't there, then it gives, it allows hitters to have a little bit more time to catch up on that great off-speed stuff that he's got. So, yeah, I mean, I'm kind of interested, but I think with the injury history now, with the age, maybe a little less interested I think where he's going to go.

So for Charlie Morton, his first four starts before he was diagnosed with a shoulder injury in 2020, a 5.40 ERA. He was averaging just 92.5 miles per hour on the fastball. And then he returned post-shoulder, regular season, his final five starts, 4.22 ERA, not much better,

93.9 miles per hour on the fastball. So started ticking up, and then I mentioned, obviously, what he got that up to in the postseason, and he looked really great, the postseason and should have awesome run support this year with the Atlanta Braves. So we actually, no, I don't have the soundbite. I was going to play a soundbite of Scott's reaction, but I'm sure he was very excited being

the Atlanta Braves fan that he is. We'll get his reaction on that. Next week, I'm not sure how much you watched the KBO this past year, but some people were in on it before the MLB returned. The key womb heroes of the Korean baseball organization will post shortstop. Hase Young Kim today, Wednesday, November 25th in 138 KBO games in 2020. He hit 306 with a 921 OPS, 30 home runs, 23 steals with more walks than strikeouts, 75 walks to 68 strikeouts. Toby, I don't know if you watch the KBO if you are in on it. I admittedly did not get to catch much, but there are a lot

of people very excited about Hoss Young Kim. So his early ADP is 217.9. He is a shortstop. But I can see, you know, depending on where he signs, that power speed combination, people are going to be interested in this kid. And based on the plate discipline, I think, rightfully so. Yeah, absolutely. I'm really interested to see how the projections handle him. You know, it's always difficult to translate, you know, what happens in the KBO to what happens in major league baseball. But I think what's interesting is he's 25. I think a lot of times we see those older guys come over. So he's in the prime, if not a little bit before the prime of his career. And so I'm really interested. I mean, like you mentioned, the plate discipline there.

You know, again, like the averages in the KBO are different than major league baseball in terms of, you know, walk and strikeout rates. So again, interesting to see how it's, it'll translate, but speed has some power. The OBP is really nice. So again, I'll be interested to see what the projections look like and as I dig in and learn a little bit more, it's one of those situations where, you know, you're not sure whether you're getting a bargain because people don't know what to expect or whether you are paying for for someone who, you know, may not end up helping your fantasy team. And that's, that's kind of with a risk reward, I think, with a lot of guys here. But, you know, at this point in the draft, you're willing to take those risks sometimes. Yeah, I mean,

and based on where he's going, you could get this guy as, you know, your middle infielder, maybe even a bench bat. So just the name to pay attention to again, that is Hassiung Kim from the Kiwom Heroes over in the KBO. While we're on the topic of international players, Tetsuto Yamada is a name that I've been following for about the past year or so, and he's over in Japan, a second basement who has been referred to as the Mike Trout of Japan. So an awesome power speed combination.

Pay attention to that name as well, Tetsuto Yamada, to see if he gets posted from the Japanese Baseball League. According to reports, Blake Snell and Sunny Gray are on the trading blocks. So we shall say. I mean, the Sunny Gray one kind of catches me off guard here. I don't know if the Reds are just trying to maximize his value. They see something in the underlying numbers that they're scared about. But I guess we'll see what happens regarding Sunny Gray and Blake Snell.

And we also got this report today from Jeff Passon of ESPN. He confirmed that Ray's outfielder, Randy Arosorana, was detained in Mexico for an incident in which he allegedly attempted to take his young daughter from her mother while also assaulting the woman's father. A Rosarena could be subjected to a suspension from MLB via their domestic violence policy. So a Roserana, I think, was already setting up

to be a very polarizing player this offseason because of what he did in the playoffs. He did it against the best pitchers in baseball. And while he's on the field, I mean, the product that he showed us, I think there's a lot to be excited about. But this certainly throws another wrench in things regarding a Roserena. obviously a very serious offense too. So I guess we'll find out over the next

couple months or so what's going to happen here with Randy Arosa Rana. All right, Toby, let's jump in and try our best, admittedly. We're going to get into the weeds here. It's going to get a little nerdy. If you're not a math person, it might

be a little difficult for you to follow along. I would imagine if you play fantasy baseball and you listen to this podcast, you are at least somewhat of a math person. So standings gain points. known as SGP. So I think we need to get into this to kind of set up the rest of the show so we can know why Toby values players the way that he does and why he puts so much of an emphasis on pocket aces. No, not Adam Azer, who we've referred to as pocket aces here on the show, but drafting two

starting pitchers in your first two rounds and JT. Real Muto. Why does Toby draft JT. Real Muto every chance that he gets? I think that getting into SGP will kind of set up the rest of the show and and why you target those players. So SGP is a valuation system, which takes projections, and it assigns values to players based on their contributions in specific categories. Now, that's just my blanket statement,

and this is a watered-down version. I found this from the great Todd Zola, who was actually just inducted into the Fantasy Sports Writers' Association Hall of Fame. So congrats to you, Todd Zola. He wrote this. I think it was back in 2013, what I saw. SGP assigns values to players

based upon how many points in the standings, their production is estimated to yield. In a nutshell, if it's expected that it will take five home runs to move up a spot in the home run category, a player hitting 20 home runs, earns four SGP, standings gain points. This is done for all the categories, and the SGP are then summed. So Toby, did I do this justice?

Feel free to explain it in your own words because I know that you are a big proponent of this valuation process, and it's something that you have used. And obviously, you've been very profitable of the past couple of seasons over at the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. So what do you think? How'd I do? I think you did a great job. I mean, using the language from Todd Zola is definitely not a bad way to go about it, right?

I don't think Todd uses the SGP method. I think he uses a different method, but one of the best in terms of putting together his own projections and valuations. So for SGPs, I think the general idea is just that, you know, we always struggle with, you know, we know that maybe stolen bases are scarce or that batting average is scarce as a category. And so we all, but it's a struggle to kind of compare them apples to apples. And so what SGP tries to do is essentially look at the standing. So you take the standings from maybe the last three years of the leagues that you've played. And then you average out.

So if you're going to finish first in this category, you know, what do you need to get? the team that's going to finish 15th or 12th, depending on the number of teams. What is the range of outcomes, essentially, that are possible within those categories? And then it divides that by the number of places within the standings to identify how many points on average you need to go up. So like you mentioned with five home runs. So for every five home runs that a guy contributes, you know, you are going to go up one point in the standings because we really want to think about it like practically, right?

If we play Roto, which is what I play primarily, you know, you're really interested in how is this player going to help me move up in the standings and get the most number of Roto points that I possibly can. And so it kind of tries to distill valuation down to that. I think a critical component of it too, though, is, you know, you generate, you know, the SGP for every single category that you do in Roto. But then what you also want to do is compare that value to the replacement level player. because when you do that, like, you know, if you drafted a team that was fully off of the waiver wire, right? Like you didn't draft anybody, you just drafted guys from the waiver wire, your team would still get a certain number of in every single category. And so what you want to do

is compare how each player does to that replacement level player at their position. And that kind of tells you what the value above replacement is that they provide. And then you translate that SGP into a dollar value that everybody has seen right if you're doing auctions or, you know, I do mostly snake drafts, but I still use the, the dollar valuation. And so what it really does to distill it down is really helps you compare what a player's value is based on the categories that they contribute, at least in a roto categories. So value above replacement is being used for the position scarcity aspect of SGP, if I'm saying that correctly,

which is I guess not dissimilar from just the war stat, right, that we use for just like basic fan, basic baseball analysis, right? So many people use it to decipher, you know, who goes into the Hall of Fame and whatnot. So does that make sense? Like value above replacement would not be dissimilar from wins above replacement in real baseball, right?

Yeah, I mean, what you're trying to identify is that value. Like what are the various things that this player contributes to your team? You know, how do you how do you get that valuation for it? And so within SGP, that's how you do it. And it would depend on the player's position, right? Because, you know, we're going to talk about J.T. Raamuto later. But, you know, for a cat, the catching position, for instance, like the replacement level catcher catcher, especially in like a two catcher league, right? So catcher thither. 31 that you're drafting, you know, what does that line look like, right? It's probably like 230, you know, 35 runs, 35 RBI, and 10 home runs, something of that nature, right? Whereas the replacement level outfielder is going to contribute a lot more than that or, you know, even better example, like a replacement level shortstop, right, since we have such depth at that position. And so really what you're, what, what, what that will do is factor into the SGP, right? And so, you know, for example, J.T. Raimuto in my system is one of, or, and not, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, shouldn't say my system because, you know, there's a lot smarter people who are crunching the

numbers. And I actually use a spreadsheet that's developed by a guy named Tanner Bell who helped write the book with Jeff Zimmerman called The Process. And he has an SGP tool where you just plug in the projections and it gives you the valuation. So using that, he's actually like a top 25 player. And part of that is because, you know, you are comparing him to other catchers that are available in the pool, right? And his contributions, both because of the skill level, but also because of the how many more plate appearances he gets than guys, you know, adds to that value. So certainly the position scarcity kind of comes into it. You know, catcher is where you see that the most pronounced. I don't think there's as much of a difference between the different positions outside of catcher.

Yeah. And you mentioned the process, which is co-authored by Jeff Zimmerman and Tanner Bell and me being the dumb dumb that I am. You know, I'm just kind of getting into this now, the SGP and these different types of valuation processes, and we had Jeff Zimmerman on earlier in the offseason. I didn't I didn't even ask him about it. So, I mean, what am I even doing here? What am I even doing here? So like, look, Jeff Zimmerman, Tanner Bells, super smart dudes. You can find the book and that valuation process at smart fantasy baseball.com. So you're not creating these yourself. You're using someone like someone else's, which you mentioned is Tanner Bells. So, Does it, at that point, do you have to, like, input your league settings or something?

Or does the Excel sheet that you download from these guys, does it already kind of have that? Or is there, like, a tool that allows you to adjust it for, like, league settings? Or is that a fair question? Yeah, no, that's a very fair question. Yeah, the spreadsheet actually has that. So you just input the number of teams in your league, you know, so 15 teamer, for instance. And then that'll change the player pool, right? Like in a 12-team league, you have your 23 pitchers plus hitters, and then you have whatever your bench is.

And so you're allowed to adjust all those settings. And then you can also import like your take your home league standings, right? So if you have a home league, you can look back at the last few years of data to figure out what are the actual averages for each one of these categories, because that's what you're trying to identify, right? is above like, you know, the average, how much are people contributing. And so it's a really, it's a really great tool. It's been very valuable. And we're talking a little bit beforehand. I think, you know, we only have so much time to do fantasy baseball research. And so figuring out where we can, where we can be most efficient with our time, I think is really important. There are much smarter people than me. There's much, you know, smarter people who know

SGP inside and out and that can develop their own spreadsheets. And that's awesome. That saves us time, right? but people are fortunate enough that they actually, you know, sell these things or allow us to use these tools. And that helps out a lot. And then we can focus on things that we love, you know, a little bit more like rolling average graphs or diving into those fan graphs or stat cast profiles just to try to figure out, you know, and get a sense of why we think a guy might be better or worse than, you know, the market is valuing him or his projections might say. Yeah. I think you hit it right on the head, right? Like we almost have, we only have so much time and, you know, using these tools that other people have developed for us.

Like, look, I took a, I took a, I was about to say statcast class back in college. I wish I had a stack cast class. Oh man. I would have been, I would have been all over that class right there. I would have taken it every semester. They probably should though, right? Like at this point there probably should be a stat cast class in college. And maybe there is somewhere.

I just haven't researched it enough. But I took statistics back in college. But mind you, this was a class that was on Fridays at 9 a.m. And admittedly, I was hung over for some of the, those classes. So, you know, let's use the research of other people to help us win in fantasy baseball. So that's SGP, standings gain points. And for anyone out there who has heard of a player raider or Z scores, I don't think that they are completely, I don't think they're dissimilar. I don't think that they're far off, but from what I have read in research, Z scores uses

standard deviation to help create Roto auction values and I have actually used a tool the past couple of seasons called the Big Board which basically uses Z scores and it weighs how much a player contributes in each category, comes up with an auction value and basically tells you, it's just another valuation process basically. So choose whichever one you want

but these are all different kind of ways that you can succeed in fantasy baseball. So with that being said, that's basically why Toby goes after elite starting pitchers early. Why? And he spoke a little bit about J.T. Real Muto. But I want to focus on this pocket aces strategy that you've really become synonymous with here, Toby. And it's last year, I think I tweeted that I started a draft with two pitchers and I tagged you in the tweet. And everyone's tagging you in tweets when they're starting these drafts with two elite starting pitchers.

The first thing I wanted to ask you was, is this something that you use only in 15 team road a little? leagues, or do you also use it in 12-team Rotel leagues? Well, I definitely use it across leagues. I think it really depends on the context. So I think one thing that's important to know is that a lot of the leagues that I'm playing in are on the NFBC, the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, and a lot of those leagues involve an overall prize as well. And I think what the reason why I place so much value on the elite starting pitching is that, you know, there's a, there's a bunch of different research that I've read. So number one, there was an article by

Ariel Cohen, who writes over at Rotographs a while, and it was called the case for an ace. And essentially, it just looked at pitchers over the series of a few years. It may have even been one year. And they were looking, he was just looking at like, do ACEs return value compared to other players? And what he found was, yes, ACEs are the most likely to return value or at least get close to value, right? Which isn't necessarily surprising. But what he found is that, like, as you got into the middle tier of pitchers, there was a lot of booms and busts and more bust the not. And at a certain point in time, like the difference in likelihood that a pitcher in kind of the middle, you know, like let's say like round, you know, like around pick, you know,

150 to 250, the chance that a pitcher that you get around pick 150 is going to be that much better than a guy you draft at pick 250 isn't that much. But when you draft an ace, they're more likely to return that value. I also think just thinking about roto, like from a very basic perspective, in pitching you have two categories that are ratios, right? And you also only have nine players that contribute as pitchers in a general fantasy, you know, baseball league, right? 14 hitters, nine pitchers, or at least in the leagues that I'm playing in. And so those two elite starting pitchers can really anchor your ratios and give you a ton of help. And then I also think that, you know, and this sounds, it sounds kind of weird to say this, but a lot of it is insurance too. Because

really what I want out of those two aces is for one of them to really hit, right? one of them to be those elite starting pitchers because I know that the other ace, as long as they're not injured for the full season, right, their floor is a lot higher than the other pitchers that I'm going to be getting throughout the draft. And so in a lot of the leagues that I've been successful in, it hasn't even been that both of the pitchers have been elite. It's been that one of the pitchers has been really elite. And the other one has been fine, right? And that's all I really need. And that really sets me with the foundation to have a really strong strong pitching staff to be a little bit more comfortable streaming guys in and out, right,

with the volatility of starting pitching now. And then I just attack, you know, I attack hitting in depth, right? And I think that's one thing that's important to know is you can't just like, it's not like you just draft two starting pitchers and then you're done, right? Like the draft is over. You need to have a balanced approach. You need to be strategic and thoughtful. And you also need to decide where you're not going to go after guys. And for me, that's oftentimes closers. I'm not going to pay up for relievers. I'm going to wait a little while. I'm going to take guys that maybe have access to saves, but don't necessarily have the pedigree or the longevity that some of the guys higher up in drafts do. And this is music to Scott White's ears because, man, he's been

banging the drum for elite starting pitchers and those aces. And he was all over that last season. And I know you were successful doing so. He won the Mixed Tout Wars League last year. His first two picks were Garrett Cole and Shane Bieber. So obviously he hit on both of his starting pitchers there. But there will be a contingent, Toby, of people who argue, against drafting two starting pitchers early because for every person who drafted Shane Bieber and Garrett Cole, there was probably another person who drafted two of Justin Verlander and Flaherty,

or Verlander and Strasbourg, or Verlander and Clevenger, or Corbyn, like any combination of those two, and it didn't work out, whether it was performance reasons or it was injury-related. So for people who will say that there's too much risk involved with using this strategy, what would you say to that? Well, I mean, I think there's risk with every pick, right?

And we know that starting pitchers are a little bit more risky, right? They're more likely to spend time on the DL than hitters are. And so we kind of recognize that. I mean, I drafted a bunch of leagues, you know, and the vast majority of them, I use the pocket aces. I had one that I drafted Verlander and Strasbourg, right? And that's, it sucks, right? But the same thing can happen to you with pitchers.

Let's say you go pitcher hitter and the one pitcher gets injured and the one hitter doesn't perform like you anticipated they would, right? Like you always want to draft really good players. But again, one of the reasons why I go with the two aces is that it does give an opportunity for one of them to not succeed, right? So two years ago, I finished ninth overall in the NFBC main event. And my first starting pitcher was Garrett Cole, right, in the year that he was absolutely phenomenal. my second starting pitcher was Blake Snell. He was a big disappointment. The ratios actually weren't very good.

But I had that one elite starting pitcher to really anchor those ratios. And then, you know, through analyzing and doing FAB and drafting later, you hope that maybe you hit on one or two guys that overperform what they're going to do otherwise. And that's able to compensate a little bit for the other guys who don't. So I'd say for them, like if you're worried about taking a high-end starting pitcher, one of the reasons to take two is because it does provide you with a little bit an insurance policy and makes you pretty confident that that base that you've created, you know, is really strong. And I think there's a lot of values to be had with hitters,

like later on in drafts, especially heading into 2021. There's going to be a ton of recency bias, right? We're already seeing guys drop way down or move way up, right? Randy or Rosarana, we talked about him earlier, right? He was drafted in the top 60, I think, in my draft, right? A guy who probably has, I think, less than 100 played appearances in Major League Baseball, right? That could be a good pick. Maybe it maybe it isn't, you know, before the news that we had today. But, you know, I think there's opportunities to get that value. And as long as you're thinking about your roster construction in Roto and how you're building out those categories, what you can get later, which positions you can address later, you know, you have to think about the full strategy and how you implement it. But I think those two ACEs is a great way to anchor those ratios and really to help you out a ton because it's not just the ratios. It's the K's the wins, right? And so, again, I think it's a great strategy. It's not for everybody, but I'd highly recommend trying it sometime. And I love the way that you framed that, because something that we've said recently here on the podcast is that you can be more aggressive with elite starting pitchers early, heading into

2021 for the exact reason you just mentioned. There are so many people in terms of recency bias that are devaluing hitters that we've seen do it in the past just based off of a short 60 game sample. So whether or not you believe J.D. Martinez failed in 2020 because he didn't have access to in-game video, which is a huge part of his routine. It's something we need to pay attention to in the offseason to see if that is something they bring back for 2021. But he's someone we've seen do it before. Carlos Correa, Austin Meadows, Yuan Moncata. You're getting all these players at a discount heading into 2021. Meanwhile, we have seen them do it before. So you can load up on a lot of those hitters who do have legitimate upside,

even if you go with two starting pitchers early on. So I really like the way that you framed that and it's something that we've hit on here. With that being said, I do want to get into some of the player analysis, and I wanted to ask, how are you ranking the top three starting pitchers this season, which I am now dubbing CBD, which just makes the most sense in the world. Like the year that we're in 2020, CBD is a huge thing at this point. If you don't know what it is, make sure to Google it. but Cole, Bieber, de Grom, CBD,

how do you rank those three pitchers heading into 2021? Yeah, for me, it's Cole, DeGrom, and then Bieber. I think for Cole and de Grom, I mean, they have the longer track record of success. They obviously have the dominant fastballs, which I like to see just because I think when guys can dominate in the zone,

it's really, really helpful. I also think contextually, I think Cole, for me, as the number one, he's obviously playing with the Yankees. That offense is going to be really good. It's going to give him a lot of run support. Yankee Stadium, while it does give up some cheapo home runs, right, to guys like DJ LeMayhew, no offense to DJ fans out there. But, you know, it actually doesn't play that bad from a Park Factor's perspective because

the gaps are pretty deep. Center field is pretty deep. And so it's not like the bandbox that we have at like Camden Yards or something of that nature. So I really love the context there. I mean, DeGrom from a skills perspective, I think, is far in a way the number one pitcher. I mean, if you look at what he was able to do in the short and what he's been able to do in past seasons, I mean, his swinging strike rate was 21.6%. Ridicrous. That's just insane. I don't care how small the season is. It's just crazy. His fastball velocity, it went up to 99, like 99 miles per hour on average. Like, the dude

is just unbelievably good. I think the only concern for me there is the injuries, right? He always seems to have a little bit of nagging injuries going on. And I'm fine with that, right? Because if I get 150 innings pitch from DeGrom, like that's going to be golden, right? That's going to be one of the top five starting pitchers in all of baseball. The ratios are going to be amazing. The Ks are going to be amazing. I mean, he was literally better than he's ever been last year in every single metric. And the East was actually one of the hardest divisions to play in, right? We know that the Central had really bad hitting, really good pitching. The East was really difficult for pitching and for hitters. So I don't have a concern about that. With Bieber, there's a few factors

for me. Number one, he was lucky, right? You know, the strand rate, I don't have it in front of me, but I think it was around 90 percent, right? That's not going to continue. He was lucky. He also went up against central pitching. And then if you look at his actual schedule, it was one of the easiest schedules in baseball. That's not to take away from what Bieber was able to do. I still think he's an absolutely dominant pitcher. He's an ace. He does it a little differently than the other two. But I just feel a little bit less confident in his ability to replicate some of those ratios and to minimize the contact that he did. He increased his velocity by a milepower, which is great. He developed that cutter this year, which is phenomenal too. So again, my number three starting

pitcher, but I don't have him up there with de Grom and Cole. Those are definitely the two that I really want to target heading into the season. Yeah. And we are, we're splitting hairs on these starting pitchers. I have it, DeGrom, Bieber, Cole, and I hear everything that you're saying about the schedule being very easy for Bieber in 2020, but I just really like in terms of what he did with the Arsenal

continuing to use his fastball less, developing that cutter. I'm really just buying in on the pitcher that he has become and just impeccable command. And Garrett Cole just ever so slightly worried about the fly balls being up in Yankee Stadium and the hard contact and the average exit velocity against Cole

all being career highs this past season. So if we're going to split hairs on these guys, I have Gary Cole just behind those two, but I'd be happy with taking any of the three in the first round of fantasy baseball drafts in 2021. Are there any starting pitchers in the top 36 picks that you are actively avoiding, Toby? And I'll just run through these. There's 12 of them being drafted in the top 36 and early ADP. Cole is being drafted at pick seven, Bieber at pick eight, DeGrom at nine, Trevor Bauer at 16,

U. Darvish at 18, Walker Bueller at 19. Those are the first six starting pitchers being drafted in ADP. Then Gialito at 21, Nola at 25, Scherzer at 29, Flaherty and Castillo each at 30, and then Clayton Kershaw at 31. So of those top 12 starting pitchers, are there any that you're actively avoiding as of now, Toby? Yeah, I mean, it really depends. I mean, the first guy that I have not necessarily concerns about,

but I have questions about is Trevor Bauer. one of the things I'm not going to be drafting him early in the season before I know which team he's going to in the context. There have been some rumors that he might pitch every fourth day instead of every fifth day. And if that's the case, that's eight additional starts in a given year. And that would really vault him up, if not to the number one player or number one starting pitcher to somewhere close to that. But for the time being, I'm holding off. And the reason I'm holding off is because, you know, like Beaver, like when you look at Bowers, when you look at Bowers numbers, he had an incredibly low Babbitt, right?

So batting average on balls and play. It was 215 this past year, right? Career 294. His strand rate, so that's the percentage of batters he left on base, was 91%. Right. And so those aren't sustainable numbers. Strand rates in general for his career, Bauer's been around 74%.

With the increased strikeouts that he's had later in his career, probably you'd see a higher number. but those are all going to fall back. That doesn't mean necessarily that he's a bad pitcher. But when you look at like his swinging strike rate, it went up slightly, but it's still not necessarily in that same elite level where he's being drafted, which is the number four starting pitcher. He's always had control issues, you know, 6.1% walk rate this year, which was a career low.

But then when you look across the metrics, there's actually not a significant difference between, you know, his control metrics this year versus previous years. And actually I was diving into this to try to figure out exactly what might have been a result. Because I think that's one of the things about these small sample sizes is when you have small sample sizes, weird things can happen. And what I found out about Bauer is that throughout his career in full counts, he has a 0.8 strikeout to walk ratio. So essentially for every eight strikeouts he gets, right, he has 10 walks in a normal season. when he's got a when he's got a full count, which makes sense, right? A bunch of balls are put in play. You know, he gets when he gets strikes, you know, there are strikes. And then when he walks

somebody, when it's a ball, he walks somebody. So you'd expect that number, I think, lead wide, it's right around that mark as well. This year he had a 3K to walk rate. He had 27 strikeouts versus I think it was seven walks when he had a full count. And so you might be thinking like, wow, you're really like grasping at straws, but that's not something that's sustainable. right? It's not sustainable for him to continue to do that. And actually when you even that out to his career average and then you adjust for the walk rate as well on that particular case, because again, you wouldn't just expect him to lose strikeouts. You'd also expect him to gain walks. When you put that all together, he actually has a similar strikeout rate to what he had, you know, in the previous season.

And so I just don't believe that he's not a 36% K guy. I think he's a high 20s K% guy. I don't think he's a 6% walk guy. I think he's higher than that. And when you make those changes to him, I think he's a good, but not necessarily great pitcher. He obviously had the spin rate changes, which I really like, and those will probably impact, like, the batted ball quality that he gives up. So I still think he's very good. I just probably have him behind a lot of the guys that you mentioned, like Darvish, like Nola, like Gioito, who I just like a little bit more. So he'd kind of be the first guy. Again, it's contextual, because if he does pitch every four, four games, then that shoots his value up.

But for right now, he's a guy that I probably won't own in my early drafts. Toby, feel free to come back on the podcast whenever you want because I had Bauer as one of my biggest bus entering this season and he made me look completely foolish. And I have him ranked lower than consensus as of now. My main reasoning was I couldn't figure out why he did what he did this past season

outside of the incredible spin rates. And is that something that we can hang our hat is going to translate year over year? Can we guarantee that Bauer's spin rate is going to be the elite of the elite heading into 2021? I don't know. So that means I probably don't want to invest a second round pick in him. There's a little bit too much risk there. So people are just going to say, oh, you're hating on Trevor Bauer because you hate it on him entering the season. But for me, it's hard to figure out how we got to where we did when it comes to Bauer in 2020. Take nothing away from him. He won the

National League. Say Young. The guy was absolutely ridiculous. Tell me, last picture I wanted to get your thoughts on was Aaron Nola. I think that people are a little bit split on him right now, at least in what I've seen in some early rankings, because I have him as my SP5, and I am kind of wrestling with the idea of moving him up to my SP4, and I've seen people have him outside their top 12, outside their top 15, and I'm just trying to figure this out. I understand he faltered a little bit down the stretch, but if you look at the box score in some of those games, a lot of those runs were unearned, and I think he had some really bad

defense played behind him in those games. I like the changes he made to his pitch mix this past season incorporating that change up more. It really helped his curveball and his fastball play up. His fastball is not a good fastball, but the incorporation of this change up and that pitch taking the next step really helped his other pitches play up. So I think if you can carry that over, I'm really, really excited about Aaron Nola heading into 2021. What do you think of him? Yeah, I absolutely love Nola heading into next year as well. I think what, what you highlighted is really important. I mean, the pitch mix change was huge.

Incorporating that change up, we always knew he had that curve ball, that great curve ball. The change up was actually the pitch that he threw the most, right? The change up was number one, the curve ball was number two. And when your top two pitches,

have swinging strike rates of like 17.1% and over 20%, right? That's going to bode really well. I think in a lot of ways, he may be the National League version of Bieber, right? Because because of that arsenal that he has, He doesn't have the depth of the arsenal that Bieber necessarily has, but he's able to get chases on pitches outside the zone. He had a career high over 38% O swing, which limits the walk rate and also gets guys to swing at pitches outside the zone, which we know is going to be really good.

You know, he had a good for him, Z contact, which is in zone contact rate. You know, again, he doesn't have the dominant stuff that like a Cole or a Gialito or a de Grom have within the zone. But he does have that great pitches otherwise. and I think also both the change in the curve ball are nice ground ball pitches. So he's keeping the ball on the ground. He's in a fairly nice context. It's not a great park at citizens. It's not a great defense with the Phillies.

But he's on a team that's going to score some runs. So the wind should be there as well. I really like the changes that he made this year. And for me, that's something that's sustainable, right? Whereas with Bauer, we really didn't see a change in the metric. So even though the spin rate shot up, we actually didn't see that reflected in any of the metrics that we're looking for at K's or walks. but with Nola, you see that across the board, right? You see that with the swinging strike rate going up. You see that with the chase rate going up with him being a little bit more dominant in the zone, not because his fastball is better, but because they have to respect both the change up and the curveball. And so I think for that reason, I really like Nola as Nola as Nola as actually like my ideal pocket pair, which is kind of reasonable to think about, would be like

a Cole or DeGrom and a Nola and Gio Lido as my SP2 in that particular situation. So I'm right on board there with you with Nola. I really like what he did this year. And I do think that the changes are sustainable and he can carry them forward. The biggest difference between Nola and you compare him to Shane Bieber is just the command. I mean, if we can get Nola back to, you know, 2018 and 2017 where he's at 2.46 walks per 9 and 2.6 walks per 9, respectively, that would go a long way. The past two seasons, 2019 was really just the outlier for him where the walks were out of control. And then he lowered them this past season, but towards the end of the season, lost the control a little bit there. So if Nolan could just get those walks down, I think that would really help him take his game to the next level.

All right, we're going to take a very late break here on the podcast. Make sure to download the CBS Sports. app and watch CBS Sports HQ. Both of them are free. I mentioned the CBS Sports app last week. You can use it for box scores for any sport. Basically, during football, you can check out targets and receptions and everything that you need there.

And of course, you can read any article that's on CBSports.com on that app, NFL-related MLB, Scott's articles, my articles. Again, CBS Sports app, you can download it on iOS, Google Play Store, where, whatever type of device that you have. And if you have a question, leave a five-star Apple podcast rating and review. review, leave your question as part of the review, or email us at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. We're going to take a quick break when we come back. Just going to reiterate why Toby loves JT. Real Muto as much as he does.

He kind of hit on it already, but we'll just take a closer look at Real Muto. Where does Toby want him to land in the offseason? We'll ask him that. And our five best Thanksgiving side dishes here, Fantasy Baseball today. So neither Scott nor myself usually find ourselves drafting JT. Real Moto in specifically in Roto drafts, but, and some people would make the argument that in one catcher leagues, he's even

more valuable. I don't know. That's a discussion for a different day. But for this exercise, specifically in Roto leagues, you mentioned the positional scarcity and what he provides. So, if you could just break that down a little bit further. I mean, everyone knows that Real Muto is the number one catcher and what he does in terms of power

and a little bit of speed and as much as he plays. So why do you love Real Muto? why are you taking him in the third round of every 15-team Roto league that you can? And where's your ideal landing spot in the off-season for Ria Muto? Yeah. So with J.T. Raumuto, it's really, it's, I mean, he's a unique player, right? I think there's a number of reasons for that. You know, number one, like, you're getting stolen bases at the catcher position. So in a Roto lead, that's super valuable.

And a lot of times people will be like, well, you know, yeah, but you're missing out on stolen bases there, too. But if I get a catcher like Rao, who, you know, according to Steamer, the steamer projection system for 2021, they're projecting him for seven stolen bases, right? You know, and I get him there and I get another guy later on that gets me seven stolen bases, right? That's the same as getting a guy who get me 14 stolen bases, you know, at a similar place in the draft, right? And so I really love the fact that at his position, that's a really scarce profile to find. I really love that. And then you add on to that the fact that, like, you know, and I think this is most important with catchers is the plate appearances. Like with Ray Almuto, he is going to play, you know, three out of every four days at catcher probably. And then depending on the team that he lands on and depending on the depth of they're hitting,

he could play DH as well. We saw that happen with the Phillies a few times last year. And so really the plate appearances are going to be so much higher than other catchers, right? There's a couple guys that I think will be in the same range, if not a little bit higher than he is, like Sal Perez. But he's going to play so much more than your standard catcher will. And so that really just boosts the runs. It boosts the RBI. And then his home runs as well. He can hit for power. And then the batting average. Again, a lot of times if you're waiting for catcher, right, it's very hard to get batting average from that catcher position. So he's contributing in five categories. And it's even a greater contribution when you think about the fact that you're getting that from a catcher. And what that opens up for you later on in drafts as you build your roster construction is instead of thinking like, I got to build my team to withstand that 230 catcher that I'm going to take, right, in batting average. or I need to get my stolen bases super early, you know, so that I don't have to go after that speed only guy later. Well, I'm actually building like a fairly, you know, a fairly solid floor in stolen bases even when I take him in that particular spot.

And so it allows me a little bit more roster flexibility as I build it, maybe take a couple values where I don't feel as much pressure there. We also know, like, especially in overall leagues, you know, and in single leagues, there's a certain number of home runs that like your tea, every single place. on your team needs to average, right? And so every time you add in a guy who gets you 10 or 15 home runs, right, then the other guys in your lineup are going to have to carry you a little bit more. When you're able to add this type of production in a position that you weren't necessarily expecting it, you know, it makes it easier to build out that team a little bit more. So it's really unique to JTR and his in his profile, but I really love that. In terms of where he ends up, I think all the places that have been rumored are pretty good. You know, I mean, obviously he was a great,

he was a great fit for the Phillies. I don't mind that. It's a great hitting part. Toronto apparently is very into him. I don't mind that either. The AL East has some awful pitching right now. The Rogers Center is a decent place to hit and they obviously have the Baby Blue Jays who are coming up, right, as Bubba would say. And so that's a good decent spot. The Yankees is a good spot for him as well, right, in that lineup. If that's where he ends up going, the Braves have been rumored as well. I think that's maybe a little bit less of a intuitive spot from an end up just because they do have Travis D.R. No still. But, you know, again, that's a nice spot. So everywhere that I hear him rumored to go, I think it's fine. I think it's good.

It's not a super far, far place from the fall. The Mets, it's not as great of a, of a park necessarily for him, but that lineup is going to be super deep and it's going to be really good. So I think anywhere he lands will be good. How about you? Do you have a preference other than the Yankees, of course, for where he ends up? It doesn't really matter to me because I'm probably not going to draft him. Maybe I will. You know, once I read the process from Jeff Zimmerman and I start to dive a little bit deeper into SGP, maybe I will jump in on JT Real Muto. But I don't really want him on the Yankees.

I don't know if that's fair. As a Yankee fan, I don't know how he's going to age and you're probably going to have to give him a four or five-year contract. So, you know, towards the back end of that contract, might not age too well there. But from a fantasy perspective, I think probably going back to Philly is the best situation for him. they have a, what I consider, a good lineup.

Hopefully, Reese Hoskins is healthy. That would help their lineup and a really good ballpark to hit. And he has familiarity with that team already. So going back to the Phillies or even the Mets, not a great park, you mentioned it, but I think the Mets are going to make a splash, whether it's signing him and Springer or trading for a Lindor, and they already had one of the best lineups in baseball

that people don't realize. They were third in OPS last season. I think they were up there in Way to Run to Created Plus as well. So they have a sneaky good lineup already, and I think that they're going to add to it. So the Phillies and the Mets, I think one of the National League East teams would fare really well for J.T. Real Amuto.

It's Thanksgiving week here. Everyone likes to argue about side dishes. No, we're not going to argue, but we're going to have a little bit of a countdown. We'll give you our top five side dishes for Thanksgiving. And on Monday, I did top five Metallica songs with Bubba. He's a huge Metallica guy. I'm a Metallica fan.

Toby, are you a Metallica guy? Or do you just kind of put up with it for the sake of Bubba. Bubba and I, you know, we agree on a lot of things. I'm not necessarily a huge Metallica fan, but I did listen to the episode. Thoroughly enjoyed it. I'm going to go back and give them a shot, I think, again. So we'll see what we'll see what you can do.

They're certainly not for everybody. I will admit that. All right. Top five, Thanksgiving side dishes. You're up. Number five, Toby. All right. Well, I'm going to go with a non-traditional side dish here.

And I don't actually think it's a side dish, but I'm going to say pie. just because I think it's so critical at Thanksgiving that we include pie. We know that it's everybody's number one dish, you know, for Thanksgiving. Not really, maybe, but I mean, pumpkin pie, coconut cream pie, chocolate cream pie, pukam pie. You can't go wrong. You can't go wrong with pie. And so I'm going to go with pie because it belongs on every Thanksgiving dinner dish.

Number five for me, cream corn. Look, if some people didn't hate me already, they might hate me now. Some people are grossed out by cream corn. It's very hit or miss. Me personally, I prefer cream corn over regular corn. Some people are going to hate me for saying that. It doesn't matter. It's sweet.

It compliments, you know, turkey or ham, well, I think. So cream corn, I'm there. Number four for you, Toby. Well, as you're going to see in a little bit, I'm right there with you on the cream corn as well. So we may not agree on Metallica necessarily, but on the cream corn. I'm going to go with candied yams. So, you know, just like mashed yams and you throw on top some brown sugar, some pecans.

That's absolutely delicious. I love that. That's a part of every one of my meals. So that's a side dish that I really love. Yeah, people are super in on yams, sweet potatoes. And I got to give it another try. I'm just not a huge fan of sweet potatoes. But the yams, I've seen it, you know, with the syrup, you can make it work there.

Number four for me, and this is very hit or miss as well. It depends who's making it and how you're making it. but I think it just has to be on the list. It's a classic and it's stuffing. It has to be done the right way. But I think when it is done the right way, it's really, really damn good. So a staple for most Thanksgiving dishes.

I have stuffing at number four. Number three, back to you. Well, right in line with you, Frank. I'm going to go with cream corn. I actually have not had cream corn at every single Thanksgiving dinner before. But my buddy, Matt, he grew up in the South, he grew up in Georgia,

and he brought cream corn one year to thanks a, And it was like the best thing I had ever tasted in my entire life, like just so good. And so the next year, he was over for Thanksgiving as well. And I was like, all right, I got to see how this cream corn happens. Like, what is the secret sauce to this cream corn? And he's like, well, you start out with two sticks of butter. And I was like, all right, that's the secret sauce right there for the cream corn. So I love, I love having cream corn.

I wish I had it more. I should probably make it some year. but those two times I've had cream corn was special. And so it's enough to push it up to number three for me. All right. So I originally had corn bread on this list, but it was too much corn in my opinion. And I like cornbread, especially if it's made correctly.

But fresh baked biscuits on Thanksgiving. I mean, a little, you know, you take a bite of the meat, you have a bite of the biscuit, especially when they're warm right out of the oven. Mm, perfect. Number three, fresh baked biscuits. Back to you, Toby. Yeah, so cornbread is one that I struggled with a little bit as well. because, you know, I love it.

It's like one of the best things ever, but I actually don't traditionally have it as part of our Thanksgiving. And so I felt like it wasn't right to include it on there, but I agree with you. I'm right there with cornbread. So my number two was one you mentioned already before too, and that's stuffing.

I mean, stuffing is just, it's just fantastic, right? And there's so many different ways to make it. There's so many different things to include in it. And it just ties everything together. I think you mentioned that too. Like it just goes well, with every other dish that's on the plate. And it goes really well with some sauces that you can throw on there,

which I won't ruin my number one. But it's really a terrific thing. It's surprising it doesn't show up more often throughout the year, right? That's what's interesting about Thanksgiving. There's those dishes that only show up during Thanksgiving that we really love and enjoy. But for some reason, they don't show up the year round. So I don't know. So stuffing's my number two.

Yeah, I think like cranberry sauce is probably up there too, right? and something that people just don't eat regularly, but they just do it on Thanksgiving just because it's a Thanksgiving side. So, yeah, cranberry sauce and stuffing up there for sure. Number two, for me, another classic mashed potatoes with gravy, man. I mean, I prefer the mashed potatoes versus the sweet potatoes. I think you're going to get a little push and pull there.

Some people might be split, divided, but just another classic mashed potatoes and gravy at the gravy, top of the potatoes, put it on top of the turkey as well. all comes together very well. Number one for you, Toby, Thanksgiving side. What do you got? Number one. And this is where I give myself away right here because you all have been listening to me and whatever you've been thinking. I'm a pescatarian. I don't eat meat. And so Thanksgiving is a little bit different for me, right? And so I always, for the longest time, missed gravy, right? I mean, gravy is just, you can never have too much and you just put it on every single thing on your plate.

Like it's always the last thing to go on because you're just ladling it on. And more recently, I've discovered some really good mushroom gravy recipes. And so people may be like, why would I try mushroom gravy when I've had the real thing? And maybe you're right. But I'm telling you, like discovering mushroom gravy, making your own homemade mushroom gravy is just absolutely delicious. And it really has brought, you know, such an important part of that Thanksgiving meal back to me, which is that gravy and just dousing everything with that gravy, just to, bring it all home. So for me, that's the number one. Just revolutionizes Thanksgiving for those

of us vegetarians or prescatarians. And so that's what I'm going for my number one. Yeah. And shout out to my dad because he makes a mean mushroom gravy. So stop the first time I've heard of the mushroom gravy. It can be fantastic. If with the caveat, this is the caveat of all these things, if done correctly, but I've had a good mushroom gravy. So I agree with you there. Number one for me. And some people don't have this at their Thanksgiving dinner. And I understand it's not necessarily a traditional Thanksgiving side. But you should make it a Thanksgiving side. And that is macaroni and cheese.

Yes, I eat like I'm 10 years old and I'm not afraid to say it. I love mac and cheese. I love chicken tenders. If we can get chicken tenders on the Thanksgiving table, I wouldn't argue against that either. So for me, mac and cheese baked with some breadcrumbs on top. My goodness gracious. Oh, my, here you go. my goodness gracious.

Shout out to Susan Waldman. But yeah, that's me when I'm eating a really good mac and cheese on Thanksgiving. So those are our top five Thanksgiving side dishes. He is Toby. Make sure you follow him on Twitter at Batflip Crazy. Listen to the Batflip Crazy podcast. And of course you can hear him on Bench with Bubba as well. Toby, thank you so, so much for coming on today.

Because without you, there's no way I would have ever figured out all this type of stuff. Well, Frank, I really appreciate the opportunity to be. be here. It was fun to talk baseball with you. And good luck in this upcoming fantasy baseball season and these drafts that are already getting started. Good luck to you as well. You'll be competing against each other in the draft champions overall. I've already got a draft in the books. And I've already signed up for a second. So there's definitely something wrong with me. For Toby, I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching fantasy baseball today. We'll see you again next week. Bye-bye.