Fantasy Baseball Today - Hunter Greene vs. Logan Webb! Are These Players Breaking Out? (4/8 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: April 8, 2025

Hunter Greene came within one out of a complete game shutout (2:27). ... Logan Webb's changeup was back (10:00)! ... Hayden Wesneski was great against the Mariners (13:43). ... Tyler Soderstrom hit two more homers (18:18). ... News (23:38): Spender Arrighetti broke his thumb. ... What's going on with Willson Contreras (28:14)? ... Are these players breaking out (37:14)? ... Two quick questions on Logan Gilbert and Kodai Senga (48:18)? ... Carlos Rodon and Zac Gallen have been frustrating (52:55). ... The Cubs are off and running (57:12). ... We wrap up with leftovers, bullpens and streamers (1:00:30). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CPTowers @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Hunter Green versus Logan Webb, Stutz. Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Tuesday, April 8th.

I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. today on the show, are these players breaking out? We'll take a look at some frustrating starters, one quick question, and another wacky injury in baseball. Let's jump in. Holy Toledo. The element is surprised, great.

All right. Let's start with Chris. You have yourself Hunter Green, one out away from a shout out. I mean, he looked like he might get a Maddox at one point. He was really dealing. It ended up being eight and two-thirds innings, four hits, no earn runs, one walk, seven strikeouts on 104 pitches,

average 99.1 miles per hour with his four seamer, actually down almost one mile per hour from his previous start, which is pretty bonkers. 19 swinging strikes. Hunter Green looks freaking incredible right now. I don't know what else. to say, except that my Hunter Green skepticism from this off season, looking pretty dumb these days. Well, the strike throwing, I think, is one aspect you could look at here for Hunter Green.

It's been great this season. It was great down the stretch last season. What was the ridiculous ERA he put up to end last season when he started throwing the ball? It's like 112 or something over his final 11 starts. It was something like that. I'm not going to be able to pull it up quick enough for the patience of our audience. But it was ridiculous. And he started throwing more strikes.

That was a big part of it. So 109 ERA over his final 10 starts. There you go. I got there. 109 over his final 10 starts 65% strike rate, which is good. That's above average. And previous 64% strike. great, but there was more walks.

There was definitely more walks early in the season. Reducing the walks led to that stretch with the 109 ERA. So that's one aspect you could look at for green and that's continued. The other thing, you mentioned his fastball velocity wasn't quite as high this start. It was still 1.5 miles per hour higher than last year in this start. So it's been up like two miles per hour throughout averaging 99 plus on his fastball. And I believe the velocity on his slider is up similarly too. Yeah, certainly it was today.

Today he threw it 89 miles per hour, which is way up for previous year. So he's throwing harder. Throwing more strikes, throwing harder. He's throwing so hard that I wonder how long it can last. And I don't mean to be a counter. But pitchers who average. 99 miles per hour on their fastball generally are not the ones we're seeing take on an ace workload. And he's had Tommy John surgery.

He missed time last year with an elbow or forearm scare and a shoulder injury. He missed time with an elbow strain a couple years ago. There's been a lot of injuries here. So I am expecting Ace production for Hunter Green for as long as he lasts. but I am not expecting him. Like he didn't last all the way through last season. We haven't seen him take on an ace workload yet. And I think adding that much to your already very high velocity

isn't a way to reverse that trend. So I think you enjoy it for now. I think at some point once it's universally recognized that he's an ace, maybe you consider shopping him at that point before. the bottom falls out. Obviously not to... You know, you're obviously selling high in that scenario.

You're moving up for a top 15 starting pitcher price. You're realizing your gains at that point. I'm looking at top 10. I think it has to be a top 10 starting pitcher because the way he's pitching right now, I can see Hunter Green performing like a top 15-ish starting pitcher when he's healthy because that's what we saw last year.

Part of the reason why I was fading him this year was mostly because of the injuries. but I think when he's healthy, he's probably going to perform like a top 15 pitcher. So the one that instantly comes to mind is Corbyn Burns. If you could just flip him for Corbyn Burns, I don't know how likely that is, but man,

after a start like this, you could try. I think it's pretty likely in some casual leagues. And I would do it. It is kind of a combo cell high by low situation. And maybe if you just hold on to Green for, like if you could do it, do it.

Obviously, if you can get Corbin Burns for Hunter Green, then there's no. reason to mess around with that. You just take that deal. But if you can't, I think you just enjoy Hunter Green for a little longer, let's say through mid-May, through the end of May. And then if everybody recognizes he's an ace at that point, then you try selling him like an ace and enjoying the two months you got out of him, enjoying whatever you get in his place. And you don't have to worry about him anymore. If he pitches like an ace rest of the way, great. You got an ace return for him anyway. So it's not like you're going to regret that.

The problem, of course. What if he doesn't get to me? Like, that's the thing is if you think the only risk or the biggest risk is injury, injury could happen in the next start. That's why I do think like, you could say that for any pitcher though, right? Absolutely. But it's tight for him because he throws 99 miles per hour. If we're saying that the only concern is injury, then I do think.

this is not a like I'm going to hang on to him for a month, let him build value. It is if you really do think that that injury is the risk, I do think you need to be aggressive about trying to shop him now. Just because that injury risk is always going to be there. I agree with that, but I would imagine most people who drafted Hunter Green probably don't look at it that way. They probably saw a guy who throws almost 100 miles per hour. and what he did to end last season,

and they thought, man, he can build off of that and become a legitimate ace. And that's what he's looked like so far this season. So if you are someone who's drafted Hunter Green and you feel that way and you don't think he's going to get hurt, then you should probably just stick with him and just recognize the gains and hope that he doesn't get hurt. It still is a possibility because it is for any pitcher, really.

But that's just, I guess, what we would do in this situation. But I really don't think any of us have Hunter Green in fantasy, so it's kind of hard for us to talk on that. It's playing the percentages. Obviously, there is a certain percentage chance he gets hurt next time out. Or we find out after this start that he's already heard. There's some percentage chance of that. But I think there's a very, very, very low percentage chance that he just makes every start

and winds up with 180 plus innings. I think that's almost zero. Yeah. So that's why, you know, I'm playing the percentages there. Like he can probably make it through 80 innings. without too many concerns, there's a chance he won't, but that's how I'd approach it. And I feel bad because it feels like we do this a lot

where we talk about a really good performance and then we talk about the downside of whoever that player is. But, you know, again, it's like you said, Scott, playing the percentages. But I do just want to acknowledge, yes, Hunter Green has been amazing so far. Three walks through three starts. And if he can maintain any level of strike throwing like this, then, yeah, he might just be really, really awesome this season, as long as he's healthy.

I want to talk about the pitcher on the other side real quick. Logan Webb, who basically matched him through seven innings, through seven shutout with 10 strikeouts, zero walks, 11 whiffs on 97 pitches. I have been a little bit more concerned with the pitch mix to this point. It feels like maybe you guys haven't been as concerned. But the change up was great in this one, and I really have wanted to see that.

It's the best that it's looked all season, six whiffs, 60% whiff rate, 37% CSW had two more inches of vertical break in this one. in general, Logan Webb is kind of evolving before our eyes. He's mixing in more pitches and, you know, through three starts. I know that first one was kind of rough, but his next two here have been very good. This is a new version of Logan Webb and on the whole, he's been very good through three starts. Yeah, and he has talked about he's had to rebuild his mechanics a couple of times throughout his career.

and, you know, he's had to tinker a lot. And we've talked, I mean, this is going back to last year where he didn't really have the best version of his changeup. And I think that explained a lot of why he was pretty frustrating last season. Well, today looked like the best version of his changeup, six whiffs with it, a bunch of weak contact. If he has that in addition to throwing the four seam or more for whiffs, throwing this cutter that he introduced at the end of last season, And if he can do that and have the change up, I think it's full steam ahead. It's a question mark.

But I think the thing to keep in mind about Logan Webb is, while there have been points of frustration throughout, he has managed to remain a very useful fantasy option, even at the low points. So I'm pretty excited about this start. Not that he is a top 10 pitcher, but that he's a must-start pitcher, absolutely. Yep, again, that was Logan Webb.

Let's take a quick break when we return. We'll get into Scott and my player of the night. We'll do that right after this quick commercial break. Welcome back in Fantasy Baseball today, players of the night. And Scott, over to you for Hayden Wesniewski. Very good one. Yeah, Hayden West Nesky.

I'm thankful that I believe he was my highest ranked two-start option for this week. No, he wasn't. It was Casey Mize and Richard Fitz, late addition, we're both ahead of him. But he was up there, and I was worried that it would be another Chris Paddock situation because I don't actually trust West Nesky himself all that much. It's just, well, he's making two starts, and he looked fine first time, and, you know, the matchups are okay. Well, he was great.

He was great first time through. It wasn't a Chris Paddock situation. West Nesky here on Monday, two earn runs allowed in seven in. at Seattle. Got 14 whiffs on his 82 pitches. That's a great rate. Multiple on five different pitches, including two on a curveball,

which seemed like a brand new pitch. He didn't throw it first time out this year. He hasn't thrown it in the past. 13% of the time he threw that curveball and got two whiffs. So West Neski seems to be adopting this arsenal that we've seen a lot of, well, this approach, I should say. This approach that we've seen a lot of pitchers have success with in recent years where they just,

they have this super diverse arsenal and the pitch mix is almost even. There's not any one pitch that they're leaning on probably because they don't have any pitch that's like a wipeout pitch. And it might work for him. I mean, two for two so far. I know Wes Nesky has been a player,

kind of a trendy pick in the past, I've never really understood the hype with him. He's not, historically, hasn't been a big swing and miss guy, not a big ground ball guy. Control. I don't think it's been anything special either. Yeah, it hasn't been. So I've never really understood the hype with West Nesky, but he is RP eligible. He is pitching deep into games.

He does have this very deep mix now. And I think he's someone to keep an eye on if you weren't already taking advantage of the two-star week here. Yeah, if he's not rostered in any head-to-head points league, he should be. He's about 45% rostered right now. So I would guess there are still some head-to-head points leagues where Hayden was Neski is available. And you should have done it before the two-star week to take advantage in that RP spot. But yeah, he's got a good team behind him.

He's got a coaching staff that I think the Astros are still a good team. I think they are too. but um you know what they can't be worse than they were last april and they still won the division right or made the play they definitely made the playoffs can't remember they're they were they were the only they were the only team from the west in the playoffs yeah yeah they came back to win the division yeah and they were like what 10 and 30 not probably not that bad 10 20 something like but when they were when they were at their worst i actually bet on them to win the division that's why that's the only reason They're terrible.

I remember them winning it, yeah. So, yeah, I still think he's a good, in a good situation, good team context in terms of getting the most out of their pitchers talent. I think you're seeing that with that new curveball with this kind of kitchen sink approach. I think, yeah, I'm not ready to say Wiseneski needs to be rostered in all 12 teams. But head to head points leagues for sure, any. If we're talking about Hayden Wisniewski, just comparing him to other Sparps, looking at the sparks that we would have ranked over him. I assume Clay Holmes, Bowden, Francis, Chris Bubich.

Jackson Job, man, I feel like, I don't know. I don't know what to do with Job right now. Yeah, I mean, I have to put Job over him just as speculating on upside. But I feel like West Nesky, like, I'd rather start West Nesky now. Yeah. Not that I think he's like must start or anything, but I just have no interest in starting Job until I see signs of him coming around. I think you would go ahead.

Looking at this, I don't think I would drop any of these guys. Holmes, Francis Bubich, Joe Brasmson, Grant Holmes, or Nick Martinez for Wesnowski. So I still think he is on the lower end of these sparts. But I think I'd rather start him than Jackson Job right now. I might do Nick Martinez for, for Hayden & Wesnese. Martinez hasn't looked good so far. He's got to show something soon, for sure.

That's fair. All right, my play of the night is going to be Tyler Soderstrom, two for three, with a double dong stays red hot. One of those home runs came off of Michael King, 11.7 exit velocity, one off of Jeremiah Estrada. Both of those guys are really good pitchers. And I know it's a small sample, only 11 games, but Soderstrom, 381 batting average, six homers, a 1292 OPS,

10 strikeouts, only a 22% strikeout rate so far. He's hitting the ball hard, he's barreling it up. One thing interesting in his profile is a decent amount of ground balls entering this game, and that's really been a consistent thing throughout his career, but he still manages to get to power. So I think he maximizes the balls that he can put in the air. Soderstram does it, and he does it well. He certainly has been this year.

His pull rate is way up. Yeah, I was just going to mention, 48% pull rate is by far a career high for Sodersham. So I have a segment plan for later on. the answer for most of these is going to be, I don't know, but is he breaking out? And kind of looks like he is. Kind of looks like Tyler Sotom is just breaking out right now. What do you guys say?

He's over 90% rostered in CBS now, so it's not like... Only 68% on Yahoo, though. Okay. Well, if you play in Yahoo, I think you should treat it as if he is breaking out and then decide later if he actually is. Because, like, if you could pick him up for free, obviously he's former first round pick

was a top prospect from the day he was drafted. There's pedigree here for Tyler Soderstrom and it wouldn't be a shock if he broke out. It's too early to know. Obviously it's too early to know and I know that's an unsatisfying answer

but if he was breaking and this is the way Chris phrases it often if he was breaking out this is what it would look like and so you you have to cast a wide net early in the season when everything is a mystery box basically, but certain players are showing signs of breaking out and you know you'll only have now to scoop them up.

Because if not some, they're obviously attracting all the interest on the waiver right now. It's now or never to pick them up. So you pick them up as long as you're not sacrificing anything that you're all that invested in. And you see where it goes. And I think that's where we are with Soderstrom. Obviously, people who play on CBS have already done that with them. By the way, I don't think that's just where we are with Soderstrom. I think that's where we are with Kyle Manzardo and where we are with Ben Rice.

And that's just one position where we are with Lars Neupar. Hey, don't give away all my names on the segment, Scott. Come on. I will have the same unsatisfying answer for all those names. Oh, gosh. That's really what it like, I don't have a crystal ball. You know, I don't know what people experience. for me. I'm telling you the best way to manage your fantasy baseball team based on the variables presented to.

That's all I can do. Hitting, you learn less about hitters in small sample sizes. And so it's just inherently like your mental model of a player should be like 90% what it was before the season. And that's just reality. These guys have been. barely even played, has anybody played 10 games yet? I'm sure the Cubs have, because they had the series in Tokyo. Yeah, they've played 13. A lot of teams have played 10 games, it looks like. But your point remains. Nobody's like 15 games. Yeah.

Nobody's at the 10% mark of the season yet. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. So I get what you're saying. And I understand that's going to be the answer for a lot of these guys. But I think the names that I picked out are ones that kind of look like they're breaking out. And I guess we'll talk about those more in depth in just a little bit.

I wanted to mention Justin Steele up top here in case you were worried about him. He's still good. Seven shutout innings with eight strikeouts here against the, they were up against the Rangers in this one. Had 10 whiffs on 91 pitches. This is the best that the slider has looked so far, six whiffs on the slider, and 46% whiff rate.

I got two more inches of vertical break on his fastball as well. So very nice start here for Justin Steele. after a couple of rough ones for sure struggled with home runs early on but looks like he is back on track No concerns. At least he was here on Monday. That was Justin Steele. Quick things to promote here

shout out to the top three winners in our FBT bracket challenge. First place went to Luke Mirza, second place went to Nate Sloan and third place went to my dad. My dad came in third place in the bracket. I saw there was like 470 brackets. My dad came in third.

It's just, I saw Frank Stamphill, and I'm like, well, I didn't choose Florida to win. And I texted him. He's like, yeah, I entered the bracket. I was like, all right, well, great job, dad. You did it. Well, not exactly. You came in third. But, you know, still obviously great showing.

That is a prolific fantasy player, too, right? Yeah, oh, he's, he's all into it, man. He's retired now. So it's all fantasy. It's DFS. It's betting. So he's living life right now. Thanks to those who are watching live.

Make sure to hit the like button and subscribe on YouTube. if you haven't already. Let's get into the news and notes. At the top, I mentioned we have a new wacky injury that somehow feels like these things only happen to baseball players. I mean, this one specifically... This one can only happen to a baseball player. Well, yeah, this one specifically would be really weird

if it happened to a hockey player. Right, but it still... Like, that would be like, what was he doing there? It still is a pretty wacky injury. Spencer Arroghetti suffered a broken right thumb after getting hit by a line drive while playing catch in the outfield. So he was out there playing catch during BP,

and he just gets hit by a line drive, and he breaks his thumb. So not exactly sure how much time he's going to miss. He is going to miss time here. Is there anybody on the Astros that we would be interested in whoever is replacing Spencer Arrogati here? Nobody comes to mind for me, especially, I mean... I wonder if Lance McCullors is built up yet? Probably not.

Has he pitched in my... minor league games. Datim not sure. I know he pitched in a couple. Yeah, he's made two appearances, three and two thirds innings. He's, yeah, not ready yet.

Not ready, yeah. So probably gonna have to. A lot of guys on the aisle right now. Probably gonna have to piece it together for the time being here for the Astros. Yeah, they have quite a few pitchers on the aisle. So we shall see how they will replace Spencer Arroghetti. But as we learn more about that injury,

we will get you updated. Another pitching injury, Zach Eflin left his start with shoulder fatigue. He called it precautionary and said he's, quote, pretty optimistic. However, he went on the IL last year with shoulder inflammation. It was a minimum stay,

so it wasn't, you know, the biggest concern, but the fact that he has dealt with a shoulder injury two years in a row is not great. Yeah, and his, notably his velocity wasn't really suffering in this start. which you could take as a good sign. He wasn't missing any bats.

He got two four-wiffs, one strikeout. But that's not such a big part of Zach Eflin's game these days. Yeah, I think an IL stint is probably coming, just because why would you chance it this early in the season if you're the Orioles? Well, just because they don't have the depth. Yeah. I mean, I'm sure they have that there's someone, but. There's someone.

They have a triple. They don't have affiliate a good pitching staff. Yeah, they went from not having a spot for Cade Povich to now Now they got to figure out who's gonna replace Eflin presumably. Oh, you know what? It's probably Kyle Gibson who's Oh, yeah, that's right. He's ramping up right up? I'm not sure if he's ready yet, but you know, they signed him late in spring and so I maybe they could just throw him out there and he'll just build up on the job because Frank, they've got your they've got your guy Romanzi Contreras down there. He has not started in a while.

Cody Potete. Yeah, Kyle Gibson hasn't. I would guess if it's anybody, it's probably Cody Potit. But that's, yeah. You know, hopefully Zach Heflin doesn't miss any time. But I do agree. I think the most likely situation is that the Orioles play it safe here with Eflin. Blake's now revealed that he had been dealing with left shoulder inflammation for the past

three weeks before going on the IL. He hopes to miss only a couple of weeks of action. George Kirby has progressed to throwing bullpen sessions. He's on the IL with right shoulder inflammation. Sounds like he could be back in May, assuming no setbacks. Jackson Merrill was out of the lineup Monday due to a hamstring injury. C.J. Abrams out of the lineup with right thigh tightness. Matt McLean has missed four straight due to left hamstring tightness.

He was available to pinch hit, and I don't think that I saw him appear in that game. No, he did not. that was the fact that they didn't put him on the iL and they're already past the back date uh date does make me think you won't go on the iL but yeah it's one of those things with the 10 day iL if you're going to miss four or five games you should probably just go on the iL right like yeah don't play it doesn't matter like don't play a man short for half the time don't play a man short and give your like make extra sure the guys recovered so that Especially with a hamstring.

Right, exactly. And somebody like Matt McLean, who's just been trouble healing from injuries. He's been off injured so far in his career. Yvonne Herrera will miss at least four weeks with a bone bruise in his left knee. And manager Oliver Marble said Wilson Guthrerris is not a candidate to move back to catcher.

And at some point this week, I mean, if you have anything to say now, go for it. We've got to talk about Wilson Gutreras, who is just off to an abysmal start this season. And I guess something we didn't, factor in and it's really hard to know. It's kind of more of like the mental part of the game, but the fact that he is transitioning to a brand new position for the first time in his career, he's played a little bit of first base, a little bit of DH, but now full time, it might be

a transition for him in terms of his offense as well. Just the fact that he's always been a catcher, now he's a first basement out of nowhere. So maybe it's affecting his offense. I'm just trying to think of reasons why he's been so bad, in a small sample, of course. Could be. could be i i think this is a perfect case for applying the raphael devers example because it's the same it's been the same thing with william contraris he's his strikeout rate is over 40% wilson wilson although william is also struggling but wilson cadreras is the one who like looks totally lost at the place strike out rate over 40% pretty much all blue on his stack cast page uh interestingly the bat speed is still 94th percentile so

So I guess that's one distinction from Devers. But the broad point is that a guy with who has that kind of track record, just year after year, the same guy over and over again, this early on, you should just trust blindly that he's going to come around. Especially, I mean, even the case with Devers was there was like external factors that you could have blamed. But even then, he managed to turn it around almost overnight. I think it's the likely scenario something similar happens with William Contreras.

Do you guys remember? Wilson Contreras, excuse. Do you guys remember? William sounds like an older person's name than Wilson. So I always call the older brother that. Go ahead, Chris. Do you guys remember being especially concerned about Wilson Contreras on May 30th, 2023?

He had a much worse, 10-game stretch. I can't remember what I ate for dinner. So I don't remember. Do you remember being especially concerned about Wilson Contreras on July 17th, 2022. I'm just looking in his past for other 10-game. Like, this is a fairly normal 10-game stretch for Wilson-Contreras. He has a 179 Wobah. Last year, his worst 10-game stretch, he had a 229 Woba. He had one below 100, another below 1-12 back in 2020. It's just nothing about this concerns me. Like, I get, Frank, the way you say,

said it, we have to talk about it because people want us to talk about it and that is the job. And I get that nobody wants to hear us say that it's 10 games and it doesn't matter. But that's almost certainly the answer is that it's 10 games and it doesn't matter. And that's why I love that Raphael Devers did us this great service early in the year because we can keep pointing to that example saying, see, this is how quickly it all turns around. And especially because that one, like you said, there was an explanation, or at least a theoretical explanation. A theory. Yeah. And then it just probably doesn't matter anyway. Yeah. So I just, I'm fine. Like I dropped Cam Smith in one league this week. He has no track record to speak of. Wilson Contreras has like a decade of being one of the best catchers in baseball. So no, I, 10 games is not at all concerning for me. Yeah. And on that,

Note, if you can buy extremely low on Will Skintreras, please do that. You should be trying to do that if you can. Max Scherzer resumed playing catch Monday but said that he's still experiencing lingering tightness from the cortisone shot that he received in his right thumb. Tyler Stevenson's oblique injury is moving in the right direction. He'll start being more aggressive in his recovery. Jorge Polanco returned to the Mariners lineup as the DH. He missed the previous two games with side soreness,

though it was reported as knee soreness originally. Victor Robes was officially placed on the aisle with a dislocated left shoulder. Luke Riley started in right field with Rowdy Tellez at first base. Cam Smith was on the bench for two games in a row after a rough start. Chris, you mentioned you dropped him in one league. And that was the next question is, what do we do with Cam Smith? Yeah, that was a 12-team points league. You can't really carry hitters on your bench in a bunch.

points league. So if you can't start Cam Smith. Yeah. And I think like that's one where my D.Hs Ozuna and my third baseman is Jose Ramirez or something. So there was just, he wasn't going to play anyway. I mean, I guess Alfield, but yeah, it wasn't, it wasn't going to make any sense to keep him around. Uh, Justin Robleski will be called up to start Tuesday for the Dodgers. He's 24 years old. Some okay numbers in the minors. Any interest in deeper leagues in Justin Robleski? Not zero interest, not a lot of interest, but yeah, in deeper leagues, we'll see what it looks like. It's a good situation and there could be opportunities moving forward. All right, Marlins' starting pitcher, Edward Cabrera, could return this weekend.

Jake Fraley was scratched from the lineup due to left side pain. Connor Wong left Monday due to a bruised left hand. He suffered on a catcher's interference. The A's optioned Joey Sys to AAA. Mitch Spence is a candidate to replace him in the rotation. wasn't the Connor Connor Wong's out he has a fractured pinky

and he was placed on the IL so they are going to promote Blake Sable remember that guy yeah he's back with the Red Sox and I can't even remember their backups name not likely to matter for

Carlos Nervius Yeah Carlos Nervias I only know because I have him in a in a drafted hold league as my fourth catcher so there you go So good, good for you. Yeah, yeah.

Good for me. But yeah, he's out and I think is pretty dropable. The A's optioned Joey S is to AAA. Mitch Spence is a candidate to replace him in the rotation. The Brewers acquired a Quinn Priester from the Red Sox. He's 24 years old. Former prospect with the Pirates was traded to the Red Sox last year. He's now traded again.

I give up a lot. Yeah, it was an interesting return, right? Desperate. Yeah. Yeah. Yoferi Rodriguez. Sorry if I'm mispronouncing that name. Competitive balance round a draft pick

and a player to be named later or cash considerations for Quinn Preacher. A lot relatively speaking for Quinn Priester. He's going to pitch for the Brewers. I don't think he's going to be good, but he's going to pitch. I mean, this is like when you have to make a trade in April because you have a need,

especially a pitching need. This is what you have to do. It's not a good time to have to make a trade. right. Let's take our final break when we return. Are these players breaking out? We'll discuss right after this. Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. Are these players breaking out? And first up, Mackenzie Gore, who had that amazing first start on opening day. Pretty meh in his second start. And then bounce back here. Strong outing against the Dodgers. Six innings, two runs, seven strikeouts, had 15 whiffs on 100 pitches, nine on the fastball, four on the curve. And,

And, you know, surprisingly, only through 58% of his pitches four strikes, but only walked one batter. So, uh, managed to kind of dance around that. But, you know, the overall numbers to this point have been tremendous. It's only three walks and three starts. What do you guys think? Is McKenzie Gore breaking out? I'm inclined to say he is because I liked him as a breakout to begin with. And he's performing well.

I don't know that we've seen other than just that the top. blind results look good. I don't know that we have great assurance that he's breaking out. Remember that first start where he had 13 strikeouts against the Phillies. There was this new slider that was down like five miles per hour from the previous one. And there was this cutter that had a 50% whiff rate. He didn't throw out that much, but it was effective. He's hardly used either since that first start.

So the Arsenal seems to have gone back to the usual McKinsey Gore Arsenal, but that's probably a good enough arsenal if he throws enough strikes. 71% strikes in that start against Philadelphia, 65 in that second start, still good. And then 58 in this one, definitely not good, definitely not something we want to see continue from McKinsey Gore. And yet he still had a great effort against the Dodgers. So it's been a mixed bag in terms of underlying indicators, I would say.

But I like the talent. He's performing well. I'm operating as if it's a breakout for now. I, I, yeah, I think it's been an unqualified success so far. And I think this is the best version of McKenzie Gore we've ever seen. Now, there haven't been a lot of very good McKenzie Gore's in the past and certainly not consistently. So we'll see what the next start brings. But I will say regarding the change, like the, the arsenal looking more like it did last year,

the Dodgers didn't really have a lot of lefties in the lineup against him. You know, what we've seen in the past is teams have stacked their lineup with lefties because Gore gets hit really hard by lefties. But this new slider, he threw it 53% of the time to lefties today. It was just he only threw 19 pitches total to lefties. So I do think like this is the best arsenal and the best approach we've ever seen from McKenzie Gore. Let's talk about Casey Mize, another strong outing this one against the Yankees. and gosh, just the weather around baseball today was so cold in some of these spots.

It was snowing in this game. Didn't help Carlos Rodon, but on the other side, Casey Meyes looked pretty good. Six innings, one run, six strikeouts, 10 whiffs on 88 pitches. And this new breaking ball he's now throwing is being classified as a slurve. He used it 28% in this one, 23% in his first start. Only one whiff here, but 32% CSW on that pitch was very good. The splitter was awesome. He's up to 77% rostered.

A lot of people picked up for the two-star week. But, you know, a former top prospect, and, you know, it's taking him a while here. It's only two starts, and I feel like we've kind of been duped by Casey Meis before, but he's off to a really, really good start. He looks a little bit different this time around. So what do you guys think about a potential Casey Meis breakout? Have we been duped by him before? I mean, I realize he had a huge pedigree.

He was a number one overall pick, but I feel like it's all, everything we've seen from him in the majors has been pretty underwhelming. I feel like there was another start to a season where he looked pretty good and we were kind of thinking like, oh, it might be happening and then it didn't. I could be wrong.

I feel like that was last year. It might have been last year, yeah. I will say, God, Mice just, you know, you say they're classifying it as a slurve. I think that's kind of just a cop out because, you know, in listening to Casey Miles

talked about it in the spring, he was throwing three different types of slider. He has like a gyro harder slider that I think is just classified as a slider. He has a sweeper and then he has like kind of a curve ball. And I think they're probably just combining two of them. But the thing continues to be that Casey Meis just has no real feel for his breaking balls. His force teamer, like he does a good job getting the force teamer up in the zone. He does a good job keeping the splitter down for the most part.

And then his slider and slur sweeper, what a curveball, whatever you want to call it, is just all over the place. And I don't buy the breakout for Casey Meyes. I think he's 77% roster right now. I guess go ahead and add him, but I don't really buy Casey Meijing much more than a streamer person. I don't believe in the feel for pitching, I guess. The splitter is clearly different this year. The splitter's very good.

And we saw it in spring training, too. Like he has a way of missing bats now. That has always been the issue for Casey Mize. And it's that splitter. So I looked it up. Last year, he did have a 308 ERA in April, which may have gotten some people excited. That was with a 7% swinging strike rate, pitiful.

This year, he entered this start with a 3,000, 13.4% swinging strike rate. Even in this start with the cold weather and the velocity being down, 11.4% swinging strike rate. So this, like that is the most valuable thing a pitcher can do is miss bats. And Casey Mize just couldn't do it before.

Now that he can and he just did it, like the two-star week, this was the scary one, the Yankees, and he delivered a good outing. So I think, I think you hold on to him now. Maybe you just picked him up to stream him, but I think you hold on to him until

until the whiffs dry up or until he has such a rough stretch that it becomes obvious you need to drop him. This next one is a potential re-breakout because he's had some useful seasons for fantasy and it's Andres Jimenez who went 0 for two in this game but two walks, two steals, two runs scored, just his lineup context alone. Batting cleanup behind Bichette, Vlad, and Anthony Santander, that is objectively

a good spot in any lineup to be. And Andres Jimenez is hitting there. He's also hitting the ball much harder, 90 mile per hour average exit velocity, and a 42% fly ball rate. I don't know if those things can maintain, but this is kind of a different version of Jimenez so far, and he's batting cleanup.

So what do you got saying? I don't think he's breaking out. Yeah, I don't know if those things can sustain. I highly doubt they can. This is, look, he's not so young that not so old that it's impossible, but average eggs of a loss. Yeah, he's only 26, but average exit velocity

takes a lot longer to stabilize than something like Max Exavilo, and he hasn't shown any signs of gaining there. So at least in that regard, I don't think there's much reason to think that this is anything more than a random stretch for Andre Simonis. Not that he doesn't have value.

He's always had a value. value. Yeah, he's fine. He's not going, I think he's going to, my prediction is he ends up with about the same numbers he usually does. Yes. I think maybe the counting stats could be better batting clean up in that lineup. I think maybe the shape could be a little bit different. Maybe he's closer to 15 home runs and 20 to 25 steals. I'm not sure they're going to have him run as much batting cleanup, but I do think the counting stats could be better here for Andres Jimenez. And the last name on the list, someone Scott mentioned earlier on, spoiler alert. Ben Rice, who let off again versus a right-handed pitcher, one for two with a triple and two walks.

We've talked about Ben Rice a lot early on in the season, but just wanted to mention again that he let off in this game, seven walks to seven strikeouts. It's a good eye at the plate. He's 64% rostered. Scott, I think yesterday you said that you would move him ahead of Spencer Torkelson after Torkelson has kind of slowed down a little bit. Yeah, I would because Torkelson's strikeout rate concerns me and because we're seeing Ben Rice, at least got one start against a left-hander. And I imagine if the level of trust continues to go up with Aaron Boone, that will grow into an even bigger role.

So that takes away the main advantage, Torkelson out over Rice. And Rice is... I think he's good. Bad at ball profile? It was pretty good last year. It looks like he's continuing even further in that direction with the plus plate discipline and the good exit velocity readings. And he elevates the ball well to his pole side, especially,

and his minor league track record is stellar. He was always a good performer down there. He was one of those minor leaguers who always made me think, like, why is this guy not a bigger prospect? There must be something I'm missing. And so I should not consider him that good of a prospect either. But maybe he just was. and we're seeing him deliver on it now.

Big believer. Well, that's saying it too. That's going too far with it. But big optimism for Ben Rice. And while anyone of his stature, I would lean no to a breakout. Like if I'm just putting odds on it, it's too early to say, yes, he is breaking out. This is what a Ben Rice breakout would look like.

And you have to treat it as if it is happening or else you'll never, you'll never capitalize on it. His average exit velocity entering this game, Ben Rice, 97.5 miles per hour with a 61% pull rate. So being a lefty in Yankee Stadium, hitting the ball that hard and pulling it, good things can be happening here for Ben Rice. And I will point out, that's one where he only has a 111 max ex ofilo so far this season. He had several batted balls this spring hit harder. I think he had, um, he had, five batted balls this spring that were harder than any batted ball he had last season.

So there is some evidence of improving skill set here as well. I mean, the maxis Velo that he's delivered this year, you're kind of poo-pooing it, but it's 86th percentile. Like, that's perfectly fine max ex of Velo, especially if you're going to hit the ball hard consistently. All right. Let's get into two pitchers here. I have one quick question for each.

and Logan Gilbert, strong start against the Astros, five and two-thirds innings, one hit, one run, seven strikeouts, 17 wifts on 99 pitches. And he's throwing his splitter a lot more so far this season, and he got nine wifts with the splitter in this outing. Up the slider usage as well. It was a great pitch for him in this start. The question, could this be the best version of Logan Gilbert,

coming off a season where he was just the best version of himself? but if he's throwing his secondary pitches more and they're getting even more whiffs, is it possible? What do you think? It's possible. He has been inefficient, which has not been an issue for Logan Gilbert throughout his career, but he has failed to get through the sixth inning in consecutive starts. Huge strikeout numbers,

but I do wonder if, you know, he's chasing whiffs in a way that will make it less likely for him to pitch deep into games. I don't know. I'm throwing it out there. But I think he's awesome. Like I don't, I don't, it's not, we're talking about a guy who was already a top five starting pitcher in fantasy entering the season pretty much for everyone. So I'm not sure there's much room to grow. And I don't think he's worse. You know, I think he, he's maybe different because he's always tinkering.

But I think he's really good no matter what. I think the way it could happen, right? So last year for Logan Gilbert, 14.9% swinging strike rate, but that only amounted to 9.5K per 9. So if he can find ways for those swinging strikes to turn into more whiffs this season, like actual strikeouts,

and we can get like 10, 11K per 9 over 200 innings, then yeah, I think maybe this could be the best version of Logan. This will be where I point out that Logan Gilbert is a good example of why K percentage is better than K per 9 for telling you a player's strikeout abilities because his whip was so low last year, 0.89, that he actually had a borderline elite strikeout rate, at 27.4%.

It was the highest of his career. It's just he was facing so few hitters on a per inning basis that you didn't quite see it in the K per 9, but you saw it in the 220 strikeouts he got. Yeah. Yeah, totally hear that. But maybe it bumps up to 30%.

I think it's a possibility. Hopefully he doesn't continue to be inefficient here. But yeah, lots of whiffs early on here for Logan Gilbert. I want to talk about Kodi Senga who had a solid outing against the Marlins, five shutout innings with four strikeouts, only five whiffs on 77 pitches. And I've noticed that his velocity has been down through two starts, dealt with some arm injuries last year. The question, Scott, can Kodi Senga succeed with lower velocity?

He's been around 94-ish miles per hour. But, you know, when he had that awesome season two years ago, he was up around 96. So what do you think about Khoda Senga? Yeah, that's noteworthy, that amount of velocity decline. And I've been, like, the results have been fine so far. He's been limited to five in exactly 77 pitches both times, which is interesting. So they're clearly not willing to work them that hard. coming off the injury plagued year,

but he's been throwing a lot of strikes. Only three walks in the 10 innings. That's pretty good for Kodi Senga. He missed a lot of bats in the first start. Not so much in this start. Both starts against Miami, so I don't think they've gone. So, yeah, they were more familiar with the Arsenal.

But we haven't seen them against a good lineup yet. I don't know. I've been, you don't like to see a pitcher lose velocity normally. and just given his past issues with control and my focus on whip and the durability question for Senga, I avoided him in drafts pretty consciously. Like there were a number of drafts where he was my top ranked pitcher

and I just waited until somebody else taken took him before I looked at pitcher again because I just did not want him. So I wanted to say I'm bullish on Senga. but he's done okay so far. And so I'm willing to keep an open mind until we see him face better lineups. All right, let's talk about two frustrating starters and Chris, I'm going to throw both these your way

because they're your guys. Carlos Rodin and Zach Gallin. Rodon gave up six runs, five of those earned, three walks, eight strikeouts. The conditions in Detroit again, not good. It was like 30 degrees. It was snowing there. Are you watching this one?

Yes. I saw exactly where the wheels came off for him. Like I was watching the start and I might have sent out a post on Blue Sky. Like things are about to go poorly for Carlos Rodon because he he almost struck Ryan Creedler out. It was a three two count. Dotted a slider at the bottom of the zone. It wasn't actually a borderline call. It was just a bad call.

And the umpire called it a walk. He put him on first base. And you could see like Rodon was talking to the. umpire he was not happy two badders later he gives up a three run home run that was like yeah it was watching it in real time was a really special moment to to see him just lose himself for an inning and it's just like in the music this is how it happens with carlos rodon it's always just like one bad inning first start and as a yankees fan i can tell you man i see it and he's like a really emotional fiery dude and like if something goes wrong he just kind of gets off track really really quick

And so I don't know if that's just like part of his personality and it's going to continue to affect his production. He has pitched in some bad conditions each of the past two starts. And then Zach Gallen, I mean, coming off his tremendous outing against the Yankees, granted, he's had a tough schedule. It's been Cubs, Yankees, Orioles. But, you know, he's had four walks in two of three starts. This was another bad one. And his curveball last outing had 13 whiffs.

It was maybe the best it's ever looked. This start, it was maybe the worst it's ever looked. So it's just like, are we going to be this wildly inconsistent from start to start? I just don't know. So what are your thoughts on Zach Allen? I'm mostly willing to write this one off because he didn't have the feel for the curveball. And yeah, if Gallen doesn't have his curveball, he's going to be bad. I'm not going to defend that one.

I can't imagine he's going to struggle with the feel for that pitch that often moving forward. We've seen one start with absolutely ridiculous upside. We've seen two pretty bad ones with the control. I'm frustrated for sure. I'm not really considering moving Gallen down much yet. Realistically, what are you expecting from Gallen? Because he's not as good as his last start. Like he's, no.

How to maybe. Oh, I don't know if he's ever been that good. Has he ever been that good? I mean, he was Cy Young, third place finisher. I view Zach Allen pretty similarly to Aaron Nola. I expect a lot of volume. I expect a good team to back him up. I expect an ERA anywhere from 320 to 370

depending on how the wind blows. And I think he'll be a very useful pitcher. Probably an elevated whip too, I think. Yeah, I don't trust the whip for him as much as Nola is the main thing. I don't think Nola is a great whip either, but... The whip hasn't really... been a problem for gallon outside of last year, right? Like last year

is the only year. He had a 129 back in 2021 as well. Which was not a very good year. He was just, yeah, he was hurt that. Like the two years, the one the walk rates are higher for for gallon than for Nola. Sometimes the walk rates are just straight up high for Gowan.

It's a weird career for Gowan. Because like 2019 to 21, the control was bad. 22 to 23, control was great. And last year, we know, it was bad and so far this season it's been bad. So, I mean, that's more years than not, whereas control has been bad.

Yeah, eyeballing, his career is 114, 333 ERA. My expectation is probably something like 350 ERA, 118 whip. But with volume and wins and like, I think he'll be good, just not an ace. All right, sure. Want to mention the Cubs real quick, very aggressive on the base paths early on this season.

They have 21 steals as a team, which is tied for the most in baseball. Very aggressive here on Monday. John Bertie had two steals. Pete Crow Armstrong had a steal. He's up to four. Sayas Suzuki and Ian Hap each picked up their first. These two names did not steal any bases in this game,

but they've been good early on. Nico Horner has six. Kyle Tucker has three. I brought this up last year. I know Scott, you know, we kind of had some laughs about it. but in previous years, Craig Counseled with the Brewers, they were pretty aggressive on the base pads.

And now we didn't really see that until the second half of last season, but early on this year, man, they just have the green light. They are off and running. Yeah, they are. He loved to see it. For Horner especially,

because so much of his value comes from those stolen bases, and he was, he kind of went missing for fantasy early last season when the team wasn't running. But remember, remember two years ago he had 43 steals 283 batting average just nine home runs a 729 OPS so like it it's not like he was spectacular as a hitter he mostly just stole a bunch of bases and kept

a strikeouts low so hit for a decent average and that made him in head-to-head points leagues it made Nico Horner more valuable in a per game basis this is two years ago remember more valuable in a per game basis than Jose Altuve was last year. It made him basically a stud for points leagues running with that frequency. And of course, the Solom bases are plenty valuable in Roto too. So hopefully that's what we're seeing. We're seeing Horner get back more to that 2023 form. Not that he was bad in 2024, but 20203 was more valuable for sure.

All right. Wanted to mention as well, Jake Cronoworth off to a nice start as your top sleeper hitter for the week, Scott, hit his second home run of the season here. And Isaiah Kinear-Fleffa off to a nice start. Wanted to mention him because the pirates have been very aggressive running early in the season as well. I think that makes sense for them. They don't have big boppers in their lineup. They kind of have to play a little bit more small ball. Outside of O'Neill Cruz, obviously, you can hit the ball a million miles. But it looks like they are going to be more aggressive running and ICF already has four steals. So, you know,

in deeper category leagues, I think he could have value. There's three positions. eligibility is there. Speaking of the pirates, do either of these pitchers matter? They had a pirate's piggyback on Monday. Carmen Majinsky pitched well against the Cardinals, five innings, one run, six strikeouts, does have RP eligibility on CBS. And then Thomas Harrington came on for the final four innings, gave up three runs, had five strikeouts, picked up the save because he went, you know, the final four innings of this game. I think more so deep leagues than anything, but do either matter for fantasy? Oh, it definitely looked a lot better, Harrington, the second time out, than the first time out.

And so if he can find his way back into the rotation, he could at some point be interesting, but I think we're, I don't think we're there yet. And Maginsky, yeah, I don't have much interest in him either. All right. Moving on to some leftovers. I want to mention some hitters here. Brendan Donovan off to a nice star three for four with a run and RBI. He's batting 375, batting third against right-handed pitching and drops down to sixth or seventh against lefties. So right in the middle of that Cardinals lineup.

Mason win, another example of a slow starter coming around here. His last five games, he's got nine hits, including a home run and six-run scored. He's got the batting average up to 243 after a very slow start there. Shohei Otani finished a double short of the cycle, three-for-four with his fourth home run. James Wood hit leadoff with C.J. Abrams out of. of the lineup, one for three with a sock and a shoe. His second home run, his second steel. This will surprise nobody.

Both of James Woods' home runs this season have gone to the opposite field. He just does not pull the ball in the air for some reason. Jose Altovae, since me calling him old last week on Thursday night's podcast, he's got six hits, two homers, a steal, five runs, and five RBI. I think he's probably... You're old, Frank. Probably just fine. Youngest on the podcast, I will add.

Well, I didn't deny I was old. Take that, Scott. George Springer off to a nice start as well. Four for four with three RBI. He's betting 455 on the young season with an 1181 OPS. Xavier Edwards back in the lineup and running two for three with his third steel. And Gunner Henderson, nice to see him, have a nice game here. Two for four with a double walk, two steals, and two runs scored.

Lots of names. Anyone you want to touch on real quick. I do just find it. interesting how many of the players who were most productive in spring or least productive in spring have flipped that so far. Like George Springer was a disaster this spring. The Blue Jays fans I was talking to were like apoplectic. They thought his career was over and he's off to a great start. Jackson Trio hit like 900 in spring. That's only a slight exaggeration. It was like 490. And obviously he's had a somewhat rough go of it all. although his numbers are actually more or less fine already.

It's just, yeah. Spring can tell us some things, but there's a reason we tend not to look at spring performance. We tend to look at underlying skills in spring, because spring performance is just so noisy. Well, I went on a little rant about this, the start of Friday's podcast, which you weren't here for, Chris. And I was even, I took it even further because I feel like a lot of the players who did show clear underlying signs like Gavin Williams, like Clay Holmes, like, I don't know, there were a few other examples I mentioned then.

Even then, as soon as the game start to count, it's like. But those were, the thing is, those were results oriented. Like it was, it was processed stuff, but the results were what was impressive, right? Gavin Williams getting all those whiffs on the four seamer. Clay Holmes generally looking pretty good. There were signs underneath that that you could point to as legitimacy. Yeah. Yeah, it just.

Well, Bowden Francis, another example, terrible this spring. He's looked fine his first two starts. And so I've, I asked the question then, and I ask it to you now, is everybody. Obviously, we don't have that luxury. We have to talk about what we're seeing. But should the default advice still be? just ignore spring training. Yeah.

Like it's, it's just going to, it's just going to mix you up. Just. Yeah, I mean, there's a reason I write an article every spring that is just, these are six things I look for in the spring.

And it's, but do we never, those really matter? Like, would we rather just not pay attention to any of it than try to pick, even the things that seemingly matter? You should not. Are there,

are we going to miss more often than we hit with those? Yeah. I think you shouldn't fundamentally change your opinion about anyone. And, and, like, I was a little less aggressive in moving Clay Holmes and Gavin Williams up my rankings, although I did.

I'm not going to say I didn't move those guys up. But, yeah, I think not that it, not that it's a for sure thing that they're not breaking out. Yeah. But if their spring went like their first two starts went, they wouldn't be somebody we talked about at all.

But I mean, we all do it. Like, we shared a team and we all kept passing up. I think we actually did end up with them because everybody in the world was passing up on Boundin Francis. Well, that was the league where we passed on Rinalda Lopez for like 100 picks. And we also did not want to take Robert Suarez at all because he had a terrible spring and he leads baseball and saves. So I don't know. You might be right, Scott. It's just.

And I feel like maybe we're too close to it, you know. And I brought this up. last week, it's, I think part of it is, at least for me, I'm so excited that baseball's back in spring training that you just want to talk about it. You want to talk about what you're seeing, what you're watching, what you're hearing, right? And so maybe we just kind of overanalyze it. I mean, again, that's part of the job, but I think we're just, maybe we're too close to it, you know? And sometimes it thought, like, remember going into the 2021 season, that was like the gold standard for identifying spring breakouts because you had Robbie Ray, who was a spring,

Riser. He goes on to win the Sy Young Award. And there were a couple other pitchers like that. Like the biggest breakout pitchers of that season. I'm trying to remember who it was. I know Trevor Rogers was in there and he was good for a while, but he wasn't one of the biggest ones. There were a couple others.

He finished top three in rookie the year that year, though. There were a couple others that were just like basically aces out of nowhere. And they were spring risers. So like, but I think that kind of spoiled us maybe. Well, I just think the thing we have to keep. in mind in all of these discussions is for most players the sample size that we were dealing with this season already is about what they had in spring right like 50 60 played appearances at most 15-ish 20-ish innings for pitchers so like it's also like all these guys that we're talking about

could like the spring risers could still work out you know like we've only seen what two starts from Clay Holmes, right? Two starts from Gavin Williams. It's, it's still super. I mean, we've only seen one Shane Boss start, right? I think so, yeah. How? How? One, just one, how? How is that possible? Uh, and two, like, we just, yeah, there's just so much we don't know. So it's, I think it's important to, to keep a steady head about all of these things. When we're talking spring training, I think that's especially true because like at least the 50 plate appearances that guys are getting right now

are against major league players unless they're playing the white socks. But in spring training, like a lot like a lot of the time, these guys are facing guys who are wearing number 77 and won't make the majors for three years if ever. Yeah. No, it's just,

it's hard. It goes against like Frank was saying, you've waited so long. and we have this conversation ever, right? Every single year, forever, is you've got nothing. You've got nothing. Oh, you've got something. And that something has to matter.

And it's like, well, no, that something doesn't necessarily matter. And just because something happens at the beginning doesn't mean it's more important. A random, that's why I brought up the Wilson Contreras thing earlier. A random 10-game stretch in April does not necessarily tell you anything more. than a random 10 game and stretch in July, even though it feels like it has to. It doesn't necessarily. I've done,

I'm not the only person, but I've done research that early season results just really do not matter. And people have been doing that research for as long as baseball research has existed. Early season production is maybe slightly more predictive than any other stretch, but not really. Call to the bullpen.

Some updates here for the Tigers. Tommy Canley got the ninth inning with a four-run lead. He struck out two. Bo Briskey pitching the eighth inning. Tyler Holton in the seventh. Kind of looks like Tommy Canley is the guy for now, but I don't know that we completely trust AJ Hinch and the Tigers. No.

But who else would be if it's not Tommy Canley? Bo Briskey. I am operating that way for now. but it can always change, you know. Right. I was just putting together the bullpen reporter earlier today, and I actually have John Brebia a second in the pecking order for Detroit. So that's, that seems like a distant second.

It is weird that they only have two saves so far this season. And what? It wasn't, it wasn't Brebia. It wasn't Briske. Who got the other save for them? I think Brisky might have actually got one of them. No, he blew his own. only chance, I believe. I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure. It was Brent Hurder.

Brent Hurder. Yeah. Yeah. Brant Herder and Tommy Canley have one each. Yeah. For the Nationals, Kyle Finnegan gave up a walk and two hits, but recorded the final five outs for his fourth save. For the Royals. Three games in a row, too. Lucas Ersig got the eighth inning with a three-run lead facing the top of the twins lineup, a walk, strikeout, caught stealing, and ground out. Carlos Estevez got the ninth inning. He gave up a run. a walk and a hit, but picked up his third save. Estaviz is 73% rostered. He has all three of the Royals saves so far this season. For the Reds, Tony Santian relieved Hunter Green with two outs and two runners on in the ninth inning. He got a line drive out to end the game and picked up his

first save. It feels like Santian is the reliever that Terry Francona trusts the most, but I feel like he's more often than not going to be used before the ninth inning. He has basically said as much. Yeah. That's almost word for word. That's what he said. And I think at some point, if he truly believes he's the best reliever, that gives him a pretty good chance of working his way into the closer role

once Emilio Paghan blows too many games with his propensity for home runs. So that's why in those deep leagues, like 15-team rodeos where saves are very scarce. I'm trying to keep Santian stashed away. For the Mariners, Andres Munoz got the ninth inning with a one-run lead. He struck out one for his fourth save. And for the Padres, I just mentioned Robert Swares, got the ninth with a one-run lead as well. He struck out one for his league leading fifth save. To stream or not to stream on Tuesday.

And we have Jamison Tyone facing the Rangers, Carlos Carrasco at the Tigers, Shane Smith at the Guardians, Ben lively up against the White Sox, and Landon Rout versus the Reds. I think we said Rout, Smith, and Lively. I think Chris preferred Lively to Smith, but Frank and I preferred Smith to Lively. Rout was tops for all three of us.

Yeah, that Reds lineup looks pretty rough right now. I will point out, James and Tyones' last start was good, and the Rangers are currently dead last in Wobah. against right-handed pitching. So I could see Tyone working out as well here. Yeah, Tyone is one of those where start to start, he's a random number generator,

but over the long haul, the numbers are probably going to be decent enough for deeper leagues. Yeah. He's like Jose Burrios light. Yeah. Yeah. So it's difficult to stream because of that.

On Wednesday, we have Eric Fetty at the Pirates, Max Meyer, the Mets, Tyler McGill on the other side facing the Marlins. There's Osvaldo Bito facing the Padres, Nick Martinez at the Giants, Verlander is on the other side facing the Reds, Logan Allen against the White Sox. I can see Verlander, although I know it hasn't gone great so far. I think Tyler McGill, I like McGill the most. I think Max Myers by far the most talented pitcher on this group.

I, you know, Justin Verlander, obviously. might be worth a gamble mire even against the Mets. Definitely want to touch Logan Allen, regardless of him facing the White Sox. It's going to be cold for what it's worth. So, I mean, velocity could be down for the pitchers, but I can see, like, the balls just won't fly as well. I like McGill the most here, and then I think I would probably go with, I mean, Feddy at the Pirates probably could be fine. Man, Logan Allen against the White Sox, I kind of just want to stream anybody against the White Sox. Yeah, they're pretty hopeless.

Like Luis Robert has not done what we hoped he would. But yeah, I haven't seen much from Allen that makes me have confidence in him. So I would go McGill Meyer Verlander, actually. All right. I'll go McGill Meyer, Fetty, and then Logan Allen, if you want to get crazy and mess around. We did have some team name Tuesdays, but we ran a little bit long here. So we'll read them, save them for next week's podcast. We are going to wrap there.

For Scott and Chris, I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify, and we will be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye. Mount Podcasts.