Fantasy Baseball Today - Identifying League Winners; Runs and Strikeouts Sleepers (06/10 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: June 10, 2020

Today on the show we're talking league winners and runs/strikeouts sleepers but first, who knew Adam had a poker face!? What makes a league-winning player in Fantasy Baseball (4:50)? ... Who were the hitters who most helped win leagues in 2019 (10:40)? Is there a common theme among said players? ... Which hitters could help you win your league in 2020 (17:28)? We're looking at Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Corey Seager, and J.D. Davis. ... Who were the league-winning pitchers in 2019 (23:45) and who are the names we're looking at this season? Why is Adam so excited about Robbie Ray? ... 2019 produced the most runs in a season since 2006. Who are some late-round players who can contribute in the runs category (36:50)? Can Shin-Soo Choo and Adam Eaton do it again? ... We've mentioned a few pitchers thus far but who can be of help in the strikeouts category (49:35)? Will Corbin Burnes be given an opportunity? ... Email us at [e-mail]. 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @CBSFantasyBB, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Download our printable Draft Kit from CBSSports.com/draftkit! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive, center field, and swing. This is magnificent. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam.

Last year, there were 42,823 strikeouts in baseball. Pitchers average 8.8Ks per 9. Both of those marks were the most ever. We'll talk late round contributors in strikeouts and runs scored a little bit later on. Welcome to fantasy baseball today on a hump day, Wednesday, June 10th. And you know, I should have realized this yesterday while looking at Adam that he has the ultimate pu-p-pup-pup poker face, put-pup poker face. Look at this guy.

Taking this out last night. Love Taylor Swift. That was stuff. Just kidding. I know it's Lady Gaga. I want everybody to take out. I hate so much about Adam right now. I hate that joke he just made.

I hate the way he played poker last night and the fact that he won. Adam reached a point about we started at 7. Maybe 7.10. He reached a point about 7.50 where he was like, I got to go. I got to like put my kid to bed. And so he just started calling basically every single all in. Like you probably got to the flop. on 80% of the hands last night.

I'm going to say, I really did not play one hand that I didn't think I should play. I told, somebody asked me, when we started doing this poker thing, are you a good poker player? I said,

I am a lucky poker player. I always get good cards. And I stayed true to my word. I got good cards. Didn't you win one? We did this on the fantasy football today, Twitch stream, Twitch.com slash FF today,

for those of you who want. to follow along, because, you know, Adam doesn't want to do his job of promoting it. Didn't you take Ben Gretch out with, or you took someone out on an all-in with like two, three-suited? I don't think so. I'm pretty sure. I think I lost the five-six suited hand. No, I think, well, I think you took me out when you had like five-six suited or something

like that. It was very upset. Five-six-suited's not that bad. I mean, that's like the worst hand I get. That's what I was saying. Like the worst hand I get. The worst. I took Frank out.

He took me out. Chris out. I took a lot of people out last night. It was fun. Join us next time. Next Tuesday night, seven o'clock. Oh gosh.

Scott, you dabble with any card games? I actually prefer blackjack over poker, if anything, but I don't know how we would make that work. Well, what kind of poker were you playing? I guess it was,

just hold them. Texas hold them, right? Okay. Yeah, that's the only one that interests me. And I don't know if it's the only one that's interest me.

me because it was on TV for so long. And so, uh, you know, you just, you just, you just, you just become familiar with what you see. But yeah, that's, that's really the only version of of poker that I have any interest in. I want to remind everyone that the MLB draft is tonight and probably the most excited I'm ever going to be for the MLB draft because there's not really much else going on. RJ Anderson, baseball writer for CBSports.com, will join us on the show tomorrow. to help us recap the first round. We'll talk about some of those players who are drafted tonight on tomorrow's episode

from a dynasty perspective and maybe we'll slap some player comps on them because who doesn't love player comps? Your daily baseball... What's up? Scott. Scott. I don't love player comps?

I love player comps. No, I don't like projections. I'm good with player comps. Your daily baseball update to see where we stand is that we need... Where is it? Mo, baseball.

That was delightful. One of the first things that I saw this morning was Adam sent me a video of his son saying, And that was great. Thank you. It's three words for him. Really appreciated that. All right.

That's how they used to write it out in the old headlines. Baseball, they put a space in between it. Really? Yeah. Interesting. We did watch more baseball. We watched a Twins Dodgers game from, like, 2006. It was awful.

No, Mar Garcia-Para got a base hit. Oh, cool. Today on the show, we are going to talk about what makes a league-winning player, and we will get into those category sleepers for both runs and strikeouts. All right, what makes a league-winning player? This is our general topic conversation.

And we'll also talk about, you know, I have a few names from last year who I consider league-winning. winners, both hitters and pitchers, and we'll try and find a common theme among those players. But I just kind of want to open it up. General conversation. Scott, start us off here. How would you define a, quote, league winner in fantasy baseball? A league winner is somebody who ends up performing like a high-end player. And yet you didn't have to make a high-end investment in him. So it could be, it could be like a

a late round pick. It could be even like a middle round pick, probably, in terms of drafting, or it could be somebody you pick up off the waiver wire. So that's how I tend to think of league winners in, you know, thinking back through my history of playing fantasy baseball

when I think back to individual teams I had. I mostly think of those types of players, not so much the guy I took in round one or two. So that would, yeah, that's how I define it. Adam, Chris, I'll just open it up to both of you guys. Does it always necessarily have to be a late round hitter or pitcher? Does it have to be a waiver-wire edition?

Because I think that Cody Bellinger almost fits the mold of a league winner from last year, even though he was drafted in the third or fourth round because he ended up performing like a top three hitter in both points and roto. Yeah, I think, you know, it's easier to be a league winner in fantasy football, fantasy baseball, the roster is so much deeper that it is harder to be. But I think, yeah, like someone like Cody Bellinger, who you could have gotten with your fourth round pick last year,

maybe a little later even, you know, he was like the fifth or sixth first baseman off the board. That absolutely counts as a league winner, or at least the type of player who goes a long way in helping you win your league. You know, obviously if you can get first round value from a 10th rounder like Rafael Devers or even, you know, Pete Alonzo and Catal Marte were even later.

They were like 18th rounders. That's obviously more valuable than Cody Bellinger, but you need multiple players to dramatically outperform their value. And Cody Bellinger absolutely did that. Yeah, and you could even make the same, standards a little bit lower. I played in a roto league a couple years ago where one team just ran

away with it. And they had Betz and J.D. Martinez. It was two seasons ago. So that was when all the Red Sox were great. Those two guys were incredible. And you know, Betts, not only was he the best player in fantasy, but he was a lot better. I don't

even know what his ADP was that year. Maybe he was like fifth. But he was a lot better than like Nolan Aronado. I can't remember if Trout got hurt that year or missed time. Yeah, he did. Right. So it's like, even though Betts was like maybe the fifth pick, I could probably look up his ADP real quick,

but he even felt like a league winner just because he had such an amazing year. And then you combine him with J.D. Martinez in that scenario, who was probably a second round pick. You know, so you could go that. There's one other definition, and that's a guy who just does it in September when your fantasy playoffs are on the line. Like maybe Anthony Yisgafani, who we mentioned yesterday, maybe Garrett Hampson.

Garrett Hampson, yeah. That's another type of league winner. But, yeah, Bellinger's a great example. If you had Bellinger, that was one of the best picks you could have made. I think maybe the best way to think about it is more in terms of, you know, auction values, even if you do play in a draft. But, you know, you get $260 to build your roster. And most players that you draft,

are going to be neutral or below what their cost is. You know, for most picks, you're kind of just hoping to break even. So what you need then, and what really makes a difference is when you get that $11 $1,000, who turns into a $55 player, or you're not even $1, your reserve around Jorge Soler, who turns into a $25 player. that's really, I think, where you really, that's, I think, the best way to showcase that is the surplus value that these players give you. I was thinking a little differently in terms of auction values because, you know, the definition I gave for league winning player was kind of something you could only really determine in a retrospective way. but in terms of forecasting, I think of an auction league,

who are those few players, and it may only be one, it may be one or two, that I feel like they make my path so much easier that I'm willing to pay whatever it takes to get them. I can't think of a great example this year. I'm not sure there is a guy like that this year, but in the past, I remember Jose Alto, being that guy one year because he's a lead in batting average.

He was a lead in stolen bases and he played a really weak position. And just getting an advantage in two scarce categories while filling a scarce position, like that was in an auction context specifically where you have more control over the way the rest of your picks are going to go. That was somebody I had to have that year. So let's take a look at the top five or six league winning hitters from 2019. see if, I don't think we're going to find a common theme among all of them,

but maybe if we can find two common themes among the players and kind of use that to maybe decipher someone who we think can be a league winner this year. I think that can definitely help. We've already mentioned Cody Bellinger, who had an ADP of 42.4 last year, finishes a top three hitter in both formats. Raphael Devers, 137.7 ADP last year, according to the NFBC. And he was the number eight hitter in Points Leagues, number four in Roto, and a few other names here.

Marcus Semyon, 224.8, Scott's Boy, top five hitter in points leagues. He was number 18 hitter in Roto. Pete Alonzo, a 224 ADP. He was a top 14 hitter in both formats. Kattel Marte, outside the top 200 as well, 217.9. He was top 16 in both formats, and then Jorge Salar, of course, with that massive second half, he was a top 20 hitter in both formats. His ADP was outside the top 300, 328.7.

Scott, just hearing these names, is there anything that kind of comes to the top of your head as a theme, there's a common denominator amongst some of these players here, where we can potentially use that to help us figure out who can break out or be a league winner this season? I would say, not for, not for all. All of them. I mean,

I could lump maybe three or four of them together under a certain umbrella. Just make something up, Scott. Just make something up. Yeah. I think in... I got something. In the case of all of them besides Semion,

these were all players with, you know, who were former prospects. I think in pretty much all of their cases. Yeah, but that was a decade ago. You know, I'm talking about recent former prospects.

Every single one of these guys had been, you know, a top, I don't know if Cateel-Marty was ever like a top-50 prospect, but they'd all been top 100 prospects, certainly within the last five years, let's say. And in Devers and Bellinger's case, it was sort of a bounce-back opportunity. Or maybe it's more accurate to say post-height breakouts. Yeah, I certainly think that was true. Bellinger took a big step back as sophomore year. Devers. We talked about how he, I've talked about how he was the ultimate blind faith pick last year. So, Lear, I mean, most people had kind of given up on him, but he used to be a really big deal. So it was just kind of post-type sleepers, I guess. Belanger, you know, he's still going pretty high, but, but still, kind of post-type there.

You know, Alonzo, of course, was a rookie just breaking in. And I, he would, of these six players, he was the one I went out. after the most aggressively last year. Because I just, I didn't understand the lack of enthusiasm for him, given that he, we didn't know he was breaking with the club until like the last week of spring training, right? I think we do a little before that,

but we didn't, you know, it was, we were part of the way into spring training when we found out. There had at least been rumors for a while that that might happen. But the thing was, even if it didn't, he seemed like an obvious candidate

to be called up in, you know, mid-April or whatever, just a couple weeks into the season. So I don't know. 80-grade power bat who, yeah, I mean, considering rookies tend to get some, I don't know, it's weird sometimes the way certain rookies become overhyped and end up going too early in drafts, but then I feel like the majority of them don't. The majority of them, people just stay away from for whatever reason. Alonzo was one of those guys last year.

Adam, what was your theme? You said you had one. Well, I think when you look at Cotel Marte and the way he ended 2018, when you look at Cody Bellinger and Marcus and Raphael Devers and how good they were in 2017, you couldn't really say this for Alonzo because he hadn't been up, but Bellinger, Devers, Marte, had small sample sizes of being really great. And they were able to put it together. for a full season. So, Laird just, he wasn't really ever all that good, but I feel like he was okay in 2018, but he could never stay healthy. So the common theme was really with Bellinger-Devers

and Marte and buying into small sample sizes, which you shouldn't necessarily do fully, but I do like to see that somebody, I do like to see, you know, success. And we're talking about that with Gialito. Like, Giolyto had the highest DRA among qualifies. in 2018 and then was amazing in 2019, but he did sprinkle in some like really, really good starts, which is why I liked him in 2019. I drafted him,

but I gave up on him too early and didn't really get the benefit of it. But I'm just saying that it's, I know it's a small sample size, but hey, it's better than being bad, right? Well, it's kind of the like, if you show a skill,

you own it idea. Although in what's really, like, we're not going to come up with like a grand unified, theory of like because these players like shared some similarities but rafal devers really had never shown the kind of ability at the major league level even when he was decent in 2017 he had never shown first round pick potential and so in that case you know one thing to keep in mind is guys who get called up really young don't give up on them because if you're

in the majors, I think, Rafael Devers, did he get called up at 19 or 20? I think it was 20. Okay, if you get, I mean, if you get called up at 19

and you struggle for a couple years, you still, like, most 19-year-olds who get a reasonable amount of playing time in major league baseball, I think it's like 50% of them end up in the Hall of Fame. And for 20-year-olds, it's still like a 20% or 25%

for like a mid, if you get like 400 played appearances of a 20-year-old or something. And so, if you, get that opportunity that young and you show anything, I mean, just getting that opportunity, don't even, you don't even have to show anything. If you get that opportunity, at that age, that is someone you should keep betting on because chances are they're going to be an impact player. That's, that's why we're still taking Vladimir Guerrero as high as we are, even though,

you know, I think it may be a little over aggressive for 2020. There, does nobody on this podcast, nobody on this podcast doubts he'll be, you know, a top 30 type of player eventually. And this is the question of... This is why you take him, though. This show today is why you have to, if you have to reach for Vladimir Guerrero, you take him. You know, you don't take him in every draft you do, but he's got the potential to be Devers or Bellinger. So, you know, I think this is, this episode makes me bullish on, on Vlad, more so I think than other people are. Yeah, I think that's one thing that you can.

can look at guys like Vladimir Guerrero, guys like Ilo Jimenez, Boba Chet, just going through trying to find more. Let's stick with those three for now and see if we can come up with more names. But basically one thing that you could target, Luis Roberts, another one, when it's those young guys with that prospect height at that age, one thing to say is, is this the last time I might be able to get them this cheap? Is this the last time I might be able to take Vladimir Guerrero out of the second round. It very well could be. And so that's the kind of thing where, you know,

maybe if you're looking for that, those are the type of players to target as league winners. And we've said this about Fernando Tatis as well, Chris, where this might be the last time you can get him outside the first round. If he hits his ceiling, what we think it could be, he could be a perennial top five pick every single year, someone like a Ronald de Cunia. So I think he's in that mix as well where, yes, he's going to be drafted. Some people would argue too early for redraft leagues, but he does have that potential to be a league winner. A name that came to mind for me, who I think is a player who has shown us the upside before, has kind of fallen off for the past couple years due to injury more than anything, is Corey Seeger.

And we talk about Corey Seeger a lot, but would it really surprised anyone if he went out and hit 300 and with a 30 home run pace? You got the wrong short stop. Yeah, I mean, it's the guy Frank doesn't like Carlos Graham. Too many injuries. Corey Seeger needs to take, Corey Seger does need to improve. It's not just about staying healthy. I think he's a good value if he does stay healthy.

But where he becomes a league winner is, it's the comp I've made over and over, is if he makes that same leap that Freddie Freeman did at his, I think, age 27 season, where it was, Freddie Freeman was a very good line drive hitter, good contact skills, hit the ball really hard, but was more like a, I mean, remember, Freddie Freeman used to be like an 18 to 20 homer guy for the first few years of his career.

Corey Seeger has that same build, that same kind of profile as a player, good contact skills, great hit tool, good raw power, and he's big. Corey Seeger is 6'4. And so if he can make that adjustment that Freddie Freeman did to start hitting a few more balls in the air to maximize that raw power, that's where Corey Seeger becomes a league winner. Whereas Carlos Correa, if he just stays healthy,

I think Carlos Correa can just be a league winner. I don't entirely disagree with what you're saying, but I do think there's a tendency for people to underrate how good Corey Seeger has already been. Because, I mean, the stat line Frank laid out for him, 300 batting average in a 30 Homer pace. For his first two plus years in the majors, up a little bit in 2015,

but for 2015, 2016, 2017, he was a 300 hitter with a 25 homer pace. I mean, he already wasn't that far off from that.

So, yeah, I mean, the power ceiling, you know, for him to be a true first, second round type,

he needs to up his power ceiling. I agree with that, but for him to be a fourth or fifth round type, I don't think he has to do much of anything. And I know,

beating a dead horse here, guys coming off injuries, just in general. that's true for Corey Seeger and Carlos Correa, obviously. We know who else it's true for. My favorite Yankee, Aaron Judge. But no, like Aaron Judge and John Carlos Stanton

are two guys who absolutely, there's no question. They have the ability to be top ten hitters if they still stay healthy. When you're looking for league winners, you know, it's not the same thing as Cody Ballinger, but it could be that same type of return on your investment. Scott. Frank, though, I just like last thing like,

Christian McCaffrey was like the third or fourth player off the board, and he was a league winner. You know, it's a funny conversation. Christian, uh, Christian, uh, Christian, uh, Christian, maybe there's a thing with, with people named Christian.

It could be Mike Trout. Oh, you felt me. It honestly, yeah, like Mike Trout could be so much better than everyone. Like Mike Trout could hit 320 with 50 homer or 50 homer pace and steal 20 bases and be a league winner as the second player off the board.

Yeah. I feel like fantasy football is such a different animal because lineups are so small and production is concentrated to so few players. You know, it really just takes one or two players to have a championship team at Fantasy football. It's really hard. It's really hard for Mike Trout to be that much better than the competition

the way Christian McAfrey was last season, too. Yeah, we're getting pretty bold, calling out Christian Yelich and Mike Trout out here. Scott, do you have a pick for a league-winning hitter? Or have we mentioned one yet that you agree with? Uh, I mean, I could go back to the same guy. guys I've been touting all preseason. Like I feel like J.D. Davis legitimately has early

round upside because he has the batting average potential. He has the power potential. If he ends up putting together a stat line comparable, like I don't want to say it's a coin flip. I give Devers a better chance of having better numbers. But I think he and Davis are closer in expected production in my mind than their ADP would indicate. When it comes to pitchers, unless Adam,

did you want to mention anyone? Correa was my guy. Correa. Vladimir Guerrero, I know you like Vlad, Correro. Yep, Vlad and Correa. When it comes to pitchers from 2019, the ones that stood out most to me, Shane Bieber had a 137 ADP.

He was top six in both formats. Charlie Morton, Morton, gosh, I'm never going to get it. 117.8. He was top seven in both formats last year. a Junjin Ryu, 180 ADP. He was top 11 in both formats. And then these two are just Lance Lynn and Lucas Gialito.

According to the NFBC, had ADPs outside the top 500. And in most leagues, were waiver-wire pickups. So I don't think that you're going to find a theme amongst all of these pitchers here. But, you know, I would say Charlie Morton and Ryu is being scared off of their injury,

Biber, I feel like there were kind of... Everybody was in on Bieber last year. There were some signs, but I mean, that's what goes to show is like, I feel like Bieber and Nick Povetta were being drafted in similar spots last year. One of those pitchers was a league winner.

The other one completely sunk your team if you drafted them as like your SP3. So, I mean, it could go so many different routes. So, Scott, what do you think of this list? And I guess league winner is kind of synonymous with breakout. We've talked a lot about breakouts, but I mean, who would be, like if you had just one pick for a league winner this year, a pitcher, who would it be?

It would probably be, it would probably be Zach Allen. I mean, if I had to single out a guy, because I feel like the things that we normally ding a young pitcher for, you know, how deep he goes into games, the kind of workload he's going to get basically relative to the established pitchers. I don't think that's really in question for Gallin. I mean, he was going seven innings with consistency with the Diamondbacks last year. And as good as he was, I don't think we even saw him at his best. So that's the easy answer.

But, I mean, there could be a Lucas Gialito out there. There could be several Lucas Gialito's out there. Mitch Keller, I know Chris is very high on him. And, you know, it's a good comp for Gialito because the ERA was just, it was over seven. I mean, it was crazy high. I kind of like Geolito had the highest ERA among qualifiers last year. Of course, Keller didn't get enough innings to qualify, so he's got the small sample thing working in his favor in this case. But overall, the point is the upside is very high, particularly getting swings and misses with the introduction of a slider to his arsenal.

He was considered a top pitching prospect even before he had what is now his best pitch. So that right there tells you a little something about Keller's upside. It could be Nate Pearson. He makes the rotation. It could be Rich Hill. I feel like starting pitcher because I feel like a high-end starting pitcher

is the most valuable asset and fantasy right now. Anybody who goes from not being in that group to in it, I think has the potential to be a league winner. So it's actually a long list of names, even if they're all kind of, they're not necessarily high probability. Chris, you talk a lot about taking advantage of injury, skepticism,

and I think that was the case last year with, and kind of ageism again, for Charlie Morton, and Junjin Ryu is someone who, just... Just say Morton. It's cool, man. Don't let the haters hate. Don't let them get to you.

Jun Juni Ryu always showed the ability to pitch effectively, but is constantly hurt. And then Lance Lynn kind of just did something we didn't really expect. Same thing with Lucas G. Alito. I don't think you're going to find a common theme amongst these guys, Chris. No, and that's sort of the nature of pitcher. Right. That, you know, breakouts come out of nowhere all the time at pitcher.

Guys, you know, you can't really predict a guy adding two miles per hour to his fastball. Or, you know, changing his pitch mix in the way that Lucas G. Alito did. So, you know, those kind of things, pitcher the margins for error are so small. But I do think, you know, targeting guys who are being downgraded for injuries is one way that you can find value at pitcher as well. Because, you know, the best indicator for future injuries is past injuries. There was a really good piece by Jeff Zimmerman on Fangraphs last week where he talked about.

He looked at the past, how many players who have suffered an injury, suffer injuries in the future. And it's like if you've suffered an arm injury in the past year, you have a 50% chance of going on the IL, which is really high in any given year. But if you've never suffered an injury, you have like a 30% chance of going on the IL in any given year. So, you know,

that's one of those things where, you know, I've talked about it with Stanton where we tend to go, you're injury prone and you're not. And instead of that, it's really a spectrum. And so when you look at someone like Blake Snell, I think is a great example this year of someone who has been hit with the injury prone tag for good reason. He had elbow surgery last July. He had elbow injury issues this sprint. However, there's no question in my mind that if Blake Snell pitches, he's going to be incredibly effective.

He had the among all pitchers with at least 50 innings pitch last season, he had the ninth highest difference between his ERA and FIP. He had a 332 fit last year. an elite strikeout rate. He had a few bad starts before going on the IL and he had some bad luck with balls and play. But I don't have any concern that Blake Snell is going to be one of the 10, 15, 18 best pitchers in baseball whenever he's on the mound. Now, obviously there's a ton of risk there, but there's a lot of risk with every pitcher. And if you talk about league winners, Blake Snell can be one. He's already been one in his career. Now, just piggybacking off Blake Snell real quick, I'll throw Tyler Glass now in that mix.

If we just have a sprint of a season and he could stay healthy for the whole course of the season, Tyler Glassnow on a per inning basis was probably the best starting pitcher last year. So if he can stay healthy for a shortened season, he can be a league winner. Max Fried is a popular breakout candidate and someone that I like to target as well. Adam, before we started, you gave us a little bit of a tease that you have an interesting league-winning pitcher? Who might that be? Blake Snell is actually the inspiration for this league winning pitcher.

Blake Snell, I think he really changed his fortunes by just moving on the mound, and it helped his control dramatically. Robbie Ray is my pitcher. He's working on his delivery. He's working on falling off to the mound differently to help his control.

I know Robbie Ray can get anybody out. He's not even a guy where you care about matchups with Robbie Ray. He's a wild card. If he If he's completely wild, he can be terrible against anyone. If he's just a little wild, he can be great against anyone. But what he really needs to do is be more efficient so he can pitch deeper into games. He's one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball.

He's not a huge investment, Robbie Ray. I'll get the ADP. But, yeah, he is my kind of sleeper. I have three guys who have been great in the past and are not being drafted because of injuries and whatnot. but James Paxton, Carlos Martinez, and Carlos Carrasco. Those three guys are a different category. But Robbie Ray, 42nd pitcher off the board, 152nd overall, right after David Price, Julio Arias, Kyle Hendricks.

Those are good pitchers. So it's not like he's free. But I see potential for a guy that I have hated year after year after year, always arguing with people about Robbie Ray. I'm ready to actually support Robbie Ray. I can get behind, I don't like Robbie Ray, just to put that out there, but I can get behind the idea of him being a league winner if things break right more than I could Carlos Martinez,

who I actually like more than Robbie Ray, but I just think there's such a clear limit on Carlos Martinez's upside. That's probably true. He's never going to be more than a useful, useful part of a winning team as opposed to, you know, somebody who makes, puts you over the top really. then yeah then I would say Paxton and Ray have that insane upside where they could just have like a ridiculously good season I can see it for Paxton I'll throw Matthew Boyd out there

you know that exercise I was talking about yesterday about looking for range of outcomes for hitters I've also started working on something for pitchers and if you break out Matthew Boyd by his by 11 start stretches last year he showed the skills to literally be the best pitcher in baseball he had some stretches where the strikeout rate was elite, the control was good. Better than time last now. He had some stretches where he didn't give up a lot of home runs. And so, you know, when I create the range of outcomes for him, you know, you could,

he could have a 250 ERA in a short season. He could also have a 650 ERA. He might have the widest range of outcomes of any pitcher in baseball. But if you're talking about a league winner, a guy you can get in the one 50 range who could be top five in strikeouts with a sub 3ERA. That's one of them. I thought about Matthew Boyd, but the thing I keep coming back to with him is the tigers are going to be so bad.

They're going to be awful. Like, he's going to need just to have a 500 record. He's going to need to have pretty good luck. Well. And obviously, if it's a really short season that, you know.

The NFL side. NL Sa Young winner has won 23 games the last two seasons. I mean, that's true if he's as good as Jacob de Grom. And I'm not saying, he'll still be a potential league winner for you. But like I don't want, I feel like we've gotten to the point now, you know, over the years we were downgrading the idea of the win. And, you know, obviously there's no predictive nature to wins whatsoever. And they don't demonstrate how good a pitcher is better than any, like,

just about any other stat you could point to would. But they are nonetheless the most valuable statistic a pitcher can get in traditional fantasy score format. So, yeah. You don't see a lot of bad teams here.

You look at the league winners. You don't see a lot of bad teams. Yeah, but... Like Marco Gonzalez won 16 games. Lance Land. I don't know what Texas's record was last year, but they were very good. Mediocre.

Yeah, but there weren't as bad to Detroit. Well, part of it, part of that though, is teams perform better when they have a guy who pitches like a lead winner in fantasy. Like Matthew Boyd's won nine games each of the last two seasons with a 539 and 4.3.9 and 4.56 ERA. So, like, he probably doesn't have,

he doesn't have 20 win-ups. Scott, you know, Tigers won 47 games last year. They were seven games worse than a lot. The Orioles. And he got nine of them while being a below average pitcher. Scott, I don't know if you heard,

but they're drafting Spencer Torkelson tonight. And he's going to turn the team around, baby. So just you wait. See what happens with the Detroit Tigers. But I appreciate the Matt Boyd and the Robbie Ray callouts because we're going to take a break.

And when we come back, we'll talk about some late round sleepers in the runs and strikeout categories. And of course, Robbie Ray and Matthew Boyd fit that mold. We'll do that right here on Fantasy Baseball today. All right, we're back here. Fantasy Baseball today. We're going to give you some category sleepers, some late round contributors in the runs and strikeout categories. Let's start off

with runs. And this is an interesting category and you've already mentioned this throughout the course of the week, Scott, where if you draft someone who you expect to contribute in home runs, that means they're likely helping you in runs because every time they hit a home run, they're scoring a run. But let's take a look at some of these names from the past from last year, for example, you know, Cole Calhoun scored 92 runs. Leori Garcia scored 93 runs. Shinsu Chu, 93 runs.

Last year, you roughly needed 1,150 runs scored to finish first place in that category in a 12-team Roto League. That averages out to 82 runs scored per starting hitter on your roster. Keep in mind, you have to, in most Roto leagues, start two catchers, Which means that...

Ventures are going to get 100 between them unless you like invest heavily. Exactly. So you're going to need to pick me ups throughout the course of your lineup, especially in the runs category. So Scott, get us started here. Who are some players that might come to mind for you

that can help out in that runs category? Well, yeah. Just to kind of clarify what you said earlier, I do talk about how I don't specifically target runs or RBI and drafts. I think the home run, a player who's good at home runs is going to help you more in RBI. But what really helps in the runs category is just getting on base and then where the player bats in the lineup. How many of bats he's able to get during a game and also who's there batting behind him,

which is a big part of why Cole Calhoun scored as many runs as he did last year with the Angels. But getting on base is the main thing. Shinsuchu is going to remain a good source of that. Mark Kana, honestly, I know I want to say his name for everything, and people are tired of hearing it. But the thing he did better than anything else was get on base. His OBP was right behind guys like Trout and Bregman. And, you know, in only 410 at bats, he scored 80 runs last year.

So he's going to be a big help in that. Luke Voight might actually be pretty good. this because he has shown an ability to get on base at an elite clip and is going to probably you know bat that high enough in the Yankees lineup to make good on it uh those are the first names that come to mind i don't know any any you guys got one i'll keep looking oh of course adam eaton was one last year he should be one again this year you know you should expect that national's offense to be worse than it was in 2019 because they did lose Anthony Rendon.

But as long as you're hitting near the top of the lineup, even in a bad lineup, like Jonathan V.R scored 111 runs last year. Even in a bad lineup, if you're the leadoff hitter and you're competent, you can score a lot of runs. So I think you look at Tommy Lestella, if he hits leadoff for the Angels,

could score a ton of runs, even if the power breakthrough that we saw last year wasn't for real. He might only play against Roe. righties, but, but he might. We'll see. The skill set is there for that. And I have that same question for Eaton. Do we think he's going to sit against lefties? Because I think Michael Taylor missed most of the year.

I just don't see why he would. Well, he historically has not been a very good hitter against lefties. And I think in 2018, they were sitting him against, in 2018, he sat against lefties. He struggled against them in 17 and 18. He was good against them in 2019. I'm guessing he probably doesn't at the start. of the start of this season, but he's going to have to at least do decently against them.

Yeah. With Harry Kendrick on the bench, with as Drewbaugh-Cabrera on the bench, with Michael Taylor on the bench. I actually have a pretty good bench. Ryan Zimmerman, but they do have that extra DH, obviously. Is he actually bad, though? Is he bad against lefties, though, Adam? Because in his career-

He wasn't last year, but he was in 2017 and 18. Well, 280-hitter. 218 was against left-23 games. Okay. In 2018. Yeah, I think. 2018 was probably more about him coming back from that knee surgery and just trying to keep him fresh. But last year, you know, he was able to stay healthy.

I don't think I'm looking at him as an everyday play. I'm not actually. I think that they have enough bench depth that they would. I just don't think any of those guys are as good as him. Like, Howie Kendrick is, but he can't play the outfield. This is a guy, like I used to love Adam. I mean, this is one of the worst power hitting bats in baseball. And like,

getting on base is still the most valuable thing. And he's a really good, he's a good player overall, especially when you take into account like Howie Kendrick can't play the field really much anywhere. You know, he's really a first basement at this point. As Drewble Cabrera,

you mentioned, you know, he's a corner infielder, maybe a shortstop. Michael Taylor's the only one of those guys who could reasonably play the outfield. Plus, has anybody pointed out yet that they have the DH now?

Yeah, I did, but I still think they have one of the best benches. But, okay, you know what? Look, it's worth drafting. Yeah, because if it doesn't happen, then whatever, you can pivot from it. But if he does play every day, Adam Eden is definitely going to be a runs contributor for sure. It's a good call. Trent Grisham. Trent Grisham, a high OBP throughout his course in the minor leagues.

You don't know where he's going to bat in the Padres lineup yet. I would guess probably towards the bottom of the lineup because they do have some guys. they can use up top, but definitely has some OBP upside there. Fifth is where roster resource projects him to bat, but it's not bad. Fifth isn't that bad. And I would add that it's one of those situations where he'll probably move up as he proves he can do it. Alex Verdugo. He'll probably start out low on the Red Sox lineup too, but it's a similar situation where

if he plays like we think he can, they'll probably want to put him toward the top of the lineup. You know, obviously in a short season, I guess there'll be less time to do that, so that's worth pointing out. How about Shed Long? He might be the lead-off hitter for the Seattle Mariners,

and, you know, he'll draw a walk. He had a 9.5% walk rate in the majors, 8% in AAA in 2019, and he's been at or above 10% pretty consistently throughout his career. He obviously, he needs to, to, you know, hit 260 to 270 to, you know, really make that worth it. But if he can have a 270 average, he hit 263 last year, you know, there's not a ton of

fantasy potential, but I could see him putting up something like what Adam Eaton did last year. You know, worse batting average, but, you know, 95 runs, double digit homers, double digit steals. That's the starting player in a roto league for sure. Yeah, career two. Soak for you. What's up? Nick Solek.

Okay. Two names real quick. Andrew McCutcheon. Yep. That's a good one. And Matt Carpenter, actually. I was kind of thinking about this today. Matt Carpenter is someone that maybe would really benefit from the designated hitter.

Maybe he's just kind of getting old and being able to play half a game, not run out there in the field. Maybe that helps him. If Matt Carpenter does bounce back and is good, he's going to score a lot of runs, like a lot of runs. Two names that. I'll mention that are draftable in 12-team leagues, and we've already talked about both of these guys this week, but Paul DeYoung, we mentioned for home runs. He scored 97 runs last year.

Yeah, I did not realize that at all. I saw that today. I was like, I was baffled. And then Brian... It's not even that great. Like, we have to put that in perspective. Did you say how many people scored 100 runs? Because that wasn't even top 30, 97, right?

It's not bad. 20-good. 29 hitters. Talking about late rounds. Your expectations have to be lower. 29 hitters scored... It's not an eye-poping stat anymore. They were like 20 more people...

I think there were 20 more players that scored 90 runs last year than in 2018. I'm trying to figure out why he even scored that many runs because he's not a high-on-based guy. He batted at the top of the lineup most of the year, didn't he? Let me say. He was batting third through July, and then he dropped in the lineup. So for two-thirds of the year, he was batting in the top third of the lineup, and then he dropped a fifth. I'm going to say it was fools gold, Frank. All right.

Brian Reynolds. We mentioned the name already, but for batting average, and he scored 83 runs in 134 games last year. That projects to 100 over the course of a full season. So even in a bad lineup, he's going to get on base. He's going to hit for batting average. How about Brian Anderson? He's someone I'm starting to talk myself into as a sleeper across the board.

Homer. Well, I mean, no, I haven't really thought all that much about him. I actually did, you know, I was on the turn. two podcasts yesterday talking about the Marlins. And I did sort of talk myself into like, Brian Anderson had a 45% hard hit rate last season and, you know, a 9% barrel rate. He took these small steps forward across the board.

And he was on pace for like 25 homers, 80 runs, 70 RBI 70 runs. He obviously would need to improve on that. However, this should be a better Marlins lineup. He'll probably hit second. I could see a, you know, 25, 99. paced with a 270 average. I think Brian Anderson could be, you know, kind of what Kyle Seeger used to be, which, you know, is never a superstar, but could be a useful corner infielder. Chris, have a question.

Yeah. Were you insulted that they brought you on the podcast to talk about, like, the least interesting team, one of the least interesting teams? No. Like, yeah, that's the Barlands. They were looking on that Chris Towers guy. They were looking for people who, uh, who follow the teams. who like the Marlins. Okay.

And there aren't many of us, but actually, you know. They're kind of interesting, are though, aren't they? Like, it was sort of a bad joke on my part. They have, the Marlins are kind of interesting. The Marlins have a, like, literally like six guys who will probably be on the roster who are in their top 10 prospects right now. And so that makes them interesting on its own, let alone the fact that, you know, they've got a couple of guys in their lineup who are kind of interesting.

and the pitching staff remains interesting, intriguing. The Marlins could be good in, honestly, a couple of years. It wouldn't surprise me based on some of the prospects that they have in their system. That's so Jeter. That is so Jeter. You are... Nothing to do with Jeter. I would say Yankees fans are probably uniformly more optimistic about the Marlins than I am. I don't really like most of the prospects they have, but they're all interesting.

The Marlins love getting interesting players. And then dealing them off for... Well, no, they get like guys who, are good and then trade them for guys who are interesting. Shout out, Edward Cabrera, someone I keep drafting in Dynasty leagues. I'm excited about... Jazz Chisholm could be a regular this year.

That's the one I was thinking of. The Zach Gallen trade. Oh, look. Look, their Ozuna trade, it did pay off after all, because Zach Gallen is great. Wait, let's deal him for this prospect named Jazz Chisham

with a super risky profile who may not amount to anything. That's what the Marlins. the Marlins love winning combines. Yeah. Too soon, too soon, Scott. Just lay off. Lay off poor Chris there.

I think they're excited about Jazz Jism. He hasn't failed yet. He was having a big spring too, so we'll see what happens. Let's quickly talk about some late round contributors for strikeouts. You guys have already mentioned some of the names, Robbie Ray and Matthew Boyd. I said it at the top. Last year, there were more strikeouts in baseball,

a higher K-per-9 overall than ever before. There were 24 pitchers with 200 or more strikeouts, and that was just 18 in 2018, 16 in 2017, and 12 in 2016. According to last year's rhodo finishes, you needed about 1,600 strikeouts to finish in first place, and that's about 178 per spot in your pitching lineup. So, Scott, give us one, two, a few, however many you want. late round contributors for strikeouts.

Ah, yes. Now, this is an interesting category to talk about because it's basically strikeout potential that moves pitchers up the rankings more than anything else. So, you know, most of the guys on my list are those same big splash type of guys we were talking about at the top of the show

who, you know, they could go the Lucas Gialito route, guys like Mitch Keller. And Nate Pearson, Dylan Sees of the White Sox is another good example of that. Corbyn Burns might be the deepest of all of them, given that he's already kind of failed as a reliever. Why would we invest in him as a starter? Well, because he's got crazy good stuff. AJ Puck fits that description. My favorite is Josh James, who I've talked about a lot.

He had nearly 15 strikeouts per nine as a reliever, a multi-inning reliever last year. and is presumed to have a spot in the Astros starting rotation now. He had some control issues last year, but he made an adjustment to his delivery that's hopefully going to put it into that. I mean, you look at his last season in the miners, which was spent almost exclusively as a starter, he dominated there. So I think there's especially in strikeouts, but really all the way across the board,

there's a chance for Josh James to be a huge asset. There are a couple of guys who are more proven as pitchers, but if you're pretty proven and you're delivering a big strikeout total and you're available late at starting pitcher these days, I mean, it means you have some real flaws. So I'm not even sure how aggressively I'd want to pursue a guy like Caleb Smith, for instance, or Cole Hamels. I mean, obviously there's a lot of risk there.

there. Yeah. Chris, Adam, you guys have 30 seconds each because I do want to answer some emails. Andrew Heaney was 11th in swinging strike rate among a swinging strike rate among pitchers with at least 50 innings last season who were starters. So he's a good one. Denelson Lamat's not quite as deep. Matthew Boyd's not quite as deep. Griffin Canning, if he stays healthy, full me seven times, but Kevin Gosman is he got a lot of swinging strikes last season. He's playing in San Francisco. That's a good park for pitchers.

Maybe he could have a random 200-strikeout 3-7-ERA kind of pace. Kyle Gibson, Obama-Morces. Mercy. Dylan Bundy. That's your 30 seconds.

Dylan Bundy is a great one, too. That's a call that I like. Adam, you're up. Michael Copac, Mitch Keller, Brennan McKay, Dylan Csies. Goodbye. Mercy. Fantasy baseball at CBSI.

continue to send us your emails. I really wanted to get to this one because we've been trying to get to it all week long, Scott. And tonight is the MLB draft, or at least the first round. And Tutley, 25, wanted to ask, with the MLB draft fast approaching tonight, I'd love to hear Scott's thoughts on Spencer Torkelson versus Austin Martin as the top available position players projected to go first and second one way or another with those two guys in tonight's draft, Scott. So Austin Martin See I do it too Martin as opposed to Martin Austin Martin is The guy he gets compared to Is Dansby Swanson Who you know we think

We think he could end up having a pretty good year And maybe he's a little undervalued in fantasy now But he's only become undervalued Because he hasn't performed like we expect a number one Overall pick to perform And I don't think he has You know anybody's hoping for that kind of upside From him anymore either

So it's just it's a high floor profile, but is he going to have the kind of power potential to really be an impact fantasy player in this environment? I mean, before they even set foot in the minor leagues, I'm reluctant to put limits on their upside. But between the two, between him and Spencer Torkelson,

Torkelson seems like the more attractive fantasy pick, a big right-handed bat who should hit for average and power gets on base a lot. Kind of like it's weird. Andrew Vaughn of the White Sox was drafted third overall last year, I believe. And he's a right-handed hitting first baseman. Same thing for Torkelson. Like that seems like the,

like if you're getting drafted that high as a right-handed hitting first baseman, you know, limited defensively, obviously, and a right-handed hitter, it means you have a ton of. of upside offensively. And I think that's probably true for Torkelson. So, yeah, if I was investing in either of those guys into Dynasty League, I'd go Torkelson. Torkelson, 54 home runs in 498 collegiate at bats has been comp to Pete Alonzo.

So that's some of the pop that we're talking about there. We'll find out later on tonight. We'll see what happens there in the MLB draft. This next question comes from Brandon. Should we change our opinion on players who are traditional slow starter? this year. And we've talked about this the past couple of weeks. When the season starts, it will be late enough to avoid the early cold weather areas across the country. Will this help players like Kluber and Encarnacion avoid their common April struggles? And then on the flip

side, is it something that you have to worry about later on in the season if it goes deeper into October or November? I will just add, it sounds like the owners have set a cutoff date for September 27th, no matter when we start. So I don't think we're going to be playing into October or November, at least in the regular season. But does anyone have any thoughts on this regarding slow starters? I don't think there's any way to know for sure. I don't really believe in the concept of slow starters. I'm just, I'm not sure that it's really a thing that we see all that often.

Consistently, I guess, at least. Yeah. Yeah. Edwin-incarnation, Chris, I mean, that was the example given in the email. And I was like, that's a good point. But he actually had an 861 OPS in April and March last year. Yeah, and like Cory Kluber, I think it's happened twice. If Brian Dozier were still relevant, I might be like avoid Brian Dozier.

I do think that's the only one. I do think in Carnacian, I mean, last year may have been an exception. And it still may be a fluke. But like, that's the amount of experience a player would have to have before I any credence to it. And then even if you do, you don't know why he gets off to a slow start. Is it because it's colder outside,

or is it because he just needs reps? He just needs more reps than the average player to really find his groove. And, you know, if that's the case, then he's actually a bad investment this year. Yeah, it's just a tough, it's tough to separate the signal from the noise in this kind of thing.

Like, Edward Aconacian does have a career 750, OPS in April and March. I just, I don't know, is that is that because early on in his career before he broke out, there were three multiple seasons where he started on opening day, played the first month, and then became a role player.

And maybe it's just more heavily weighted to the early part of his career. So I'm looking at it right now and actually, I've only gotten back to 2015, but we're talking 15, 16, 17, 17, to 18, pretty horrible in the first month of the season. 2019 is the exception. So now I'm actually starting to get a little bit.

I'm not going to back off because it could just be fluky. Maybe it is a weather thing. I don't know. But I actually think that's a pretty good call. Edwin and Carnacion is probably the best example of a typically slow starter. And worth considering, I would say. I'm going to ignore it. But I think it's legit.

Anecdotally, players who come from warm weather areas, that is the kind of player who we typically say struggles with the early months. But again, it's not necessarily something that I fully believe has a ton of predictability. This next one comes from Trent. So I typically dread the draft position I end up with in our 10-team Roto League, which is randomized prior to each year's draft. This year I was lucky enough to get the three spot. Perfect.

In a Roto League, which I hope to be able to utilize if slash when we have a season. My question for you guys is, God forbid, there is no season. What is more fair? A, use the same draft order we would have had from 2020 and 2021 or re-randomized a new draft order for 2021. Adam, you don't want to lose that top three picks. you're going to lose that pick there's going to be a season

if you just randomize it what would be the argument for keeping it the 2020 randomization for 2021 because he wants to keep his third overall pick right but nothing real really changed to the player pool right but that's well that's not true

you know players who are hurt you know prospects there will definitely be changes but not the top 12 not that right I mean right but I just like if your argument is I want number three pick, that's, that's not an argument. Here's a fun one, right?

Think about the top 12 right now, you know, the typical top 12. Who would fall out of it? Like, who would lose value if the season weren't played? And we just went. Why? Scherzer and Verlander? Because Scher's old. They just had a year to rest.

Yeah, but Scherzer will be 36 years old. Verlander will be 38. But it's not like their arm is old. they didn't pitch the whole season. Right. The arm is still older. I was not... I was older.

Rade off came back and was good. They didn't do anything. Ooh, Lynch? Yeah. He was like better than he was in the year before he retired for his season. When he came back to Oakland,

he was very good. Yeah, he was like surprisingly good. It was weird. Wasn't he like unusable for the first half of the season? Oh, no, no, no, Chris. I was a big Lynch fan that year. He was very good.

Checking. it out. And if it applies to Marshall Unleens, who would obviously apply to Scherzer and Verlater. It's basically the same thing. I'll tell you one thing

that will change. If there's no season, Mookie Betts will become a free agent. And then he will sign with the New York Yankees and become a top three pick in fantasy baseball. And the Marlins

will reacquire John Carlos Stanton for jazz chisle or whatever and clear the books for Mookie Bets. That is a perfect way to ride off into the side. sunset and end today's show for Scott, Adam, and Chris. I am Frank. Thank you all for listening.

We'll be back again tomorrow with R.J. Anderson, MLB writer for CBSports.com, to help us break down and recap the first round of the MLB draft. We'll do that on tomorrow's show. Bye-bye.