Fantasy Baseball Today - Injury Updates, ADP Risers/Fallers & LABR Draft Recaps! (3/3 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 3, 2025

We had some more injuries this weekend, starting with Corbin Carroll (3:52). ... News (12:33): Rafael Devers could start the season at DH. ... There was a lot of pitcher Statcast data from Friday (20:...07). ... We also have Statcast data from Saturday and Sunday (26:26). ... Junior Caminero blasted two homers on Sunday (31:29). ... Let's talk ADP risers and fallers in the Top 100 (38:36). ... Carlos Estevez was a big riser while Trevor Megill was a big faller in February (47:19). ... Ryan Pressly is also on the rise while Lucas Erceg has been falling in ADP (55:10). ... We wrap up with a breakdown of Frank's NL-only LABR industry draft (1:00:49). ... Chris spent big on Aaron Judge in the AL-only LABR auction (1:12:05). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Who's rising and who's falling in the latest ADP? Let's find out.
Starting point is 00:00:27 Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Monday, March 3rd. I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Scott White. Today on the show, we have a lot of updates from the weekend. That's the time of year, Scott. It's spring training. We've got Stackcast Day to look at. There's injuries constantly popping up. So there's a lot to talk about.
Starting point is 00:00:45 There's a lot to talk about. I was just complaining to you. That's all I do is complain to you about I can't keep up with all the new. There's so much I want to read because I tell everybody before spring training, one of the things you want to pay attention to is everything that's being said. by managers and players, stuff they've worked on, etc. There's so much to read, but not enough hours in the day to read it. And I don't know how that seems to be more true with each passing year
Starting point is 00:01:18 because I don't remember it being so hard to keep up with before. Maybe I'm just, I'm always trying to do more, I guess is probably the reason. But yeah, it's hard to keep up with it all. So we'll try to consolidate to the most important. important things for you here on fantasy baseball today. And obviously Chris has a couple of articles. He's following along with the spring news that he runs every week, a couple articles. So he's doing that there as well. And so hopefully you don't have to spend so much time on it because it's a lot. That's why I'm here, Scott. I moonlight as Scott's therapist here before and after the podcast.
Starting point is 00:01:56 We've also got ADP risers and fallers and a big weekend of drafts as well. We had the Labor industry auctions. That's the League of Alternative Baseball Reality. I was in the NL only and Chris was in the A.L. only. So we don't talk a lot about model leagues here, but we figured give you guys some do. For those who do play A.L. and N.O. only, we'll
Starting point is 00:02:15 take a quick look at our teams later on in the show. Let's jump right in, Scott, and get to some of the headlines from the weekend and cross your fingers. Hope everything's all right here because Corby and Carroll was removed Sunday due to lower back tightness. He said he's not concerned. He's looking to rejoin the lineup
Starting point is 00:02:31 as soon as Wednesday of this week. And he was off to a blistering start this spring training, Scott. So Hope all is well there with Corby Carroll. Have you seen or read anything else? Are you concerned at all? Well, they don't sound concerned. So I'm not especially concerned. Of course, sometimes injuries that turn out to be pretty serious don't seem that way at first.
Starting point is 00:02:53 But, yeah, I mean, it doesn't make sense to flip out based on what they're saying. Back tightness. I think he's supposed to sit out Monday. and then they have a day off Tuesday, and so they hope he's back Wednesday. And if he's back Wednesday, that means it's probably nothing to worry about. Yep.
Starting point is 00:03:08 Some more likely actionable news here with Luis Heel, who was pulled from his bullpen on Friday due to shoulder tightness and got an MRI on Saturday. I did not get an update or see an update on that MRI, by the way. But Luis Heel is someone who barely pitched in both 2022 and 2022 and 23. Then went all the way up over 150 innings last season. and that was a bit of a cause for concern there. And I guess from a Yankees perspective,
Starting point is 00:03:35 good thing they held on to Marcus Stroman as of now. But not great news here for Luis Heelscott. Yeah, supposedly he's already had the MRI, but they're not going to reveal the results till Monday. The Yankees are so weird with like how they handle and talk about injuries. Yeah. Aaron Boone said he thinks it's going to be something that costs him some time, which I interpret as meaning not.
Starting point is 00:04:00 small amount of time. And keepers just were finalized in one league. And I was on the fence about keeping Luisiel. It's a pretty deep league. I was on the fence about keeping him. I decided to keep him. And then this happened. Oh.
Starting point is 00:04:15 Tried to get out of it. Tried to say, can I just drop him? I don't want to keep him anymore. I don't need a replacement keeper. I just want to drop him. And we were in trade talks, right? What was that? Score sheet?
Starting point is 00:04:25 Yeah, I was in Scoresheet. Yeah. I was refused, Frank. I was refused. It's okay. Speaking of ADP risers, my guess is Louise Heel will fall down quite a bit, and rightfully so as we learn more information, we'll let you know. But it sounds like he could start the season on the IL,
Starting point is 00:04:41 and that would get Marcus Stroman into the Yankees' rotation to start the year. Spencer Steer could also begin the season on the injured list. He received a cortisone injection in his right shoulder, following an evaluation from team doctors, and that could open up some more playing type for someone like Christian and Carnaccio in Strand early on, I believe already has two home runs in the spring. So off to a nice start there, but some worrisome news here for Spencer Steer, Scott.
Starting point is 00:05:06 Have you lowered or planned to lower him in your rankings? Yes, I plan to lower him. I am overdue for an adjustment. I've got a list here of adjustments I need to make. Hopefully I'll get around to that tomorrow. And I will put Spencer Steer, probably drop him out of that tier entirely, that very big next best thing's tier.
Starting point is 00:05:29 base, I'll probably put him down in the following tier with Michael Tolia and Luis arise. And I wasn't excited about getting him anyway. He's on my busts in my busts for this year, Spencer Steer. But if the discount is steep enough, I'll take a shot on him because it doesn't sound like a long-term thing. Dodgers catcher, Will Smith, told reporter Saturday that he's been dealing with a bone bruise in his left ankle since last June.
Starting point is 00:05:57 and dealing, like currently still dealing with, not that he's past it or anything. So Scott, any concern with Will Smith? Do you plan to lower him at all? Is there any optimism or any more optimism for Dalton Rushing, who is a big prospecting organization? Maybe he can work in a little bit more if they choose to use him as like a backup catcher.
Starting point is 00:06:19 But what do you think here on the Dodgers catcher situation? Well, the ranking is already so pessimistic. February ADP on NFBC, Will Smith is seventh among catchers, which is just before the big tier drop where you go to Shea Langalears. Maybe you put Shea Langelliers in the same tier as Will Smith. I think he's a tier lower, all by himself, but in a separate tier. So Will Smith is already at the bottom of the tier. And that's kind of surprising to me because I feel like I've been a Will Smith detractor for a few years now.
Starting point is 00:06:49 And the industry as a whole just wasn't budging on him being, you know, this tip-top catcher. And this seems to be the year finally. They are budging, putting him seventh on average. And I think I had him like fifth originally. I got with the program. I put him seventh because it's not like I'm a Will Smith apologist. And this news, it's funny because he's been dealing with it since June.
Starting point is 00:07:15 You look at his splits during the year. That's kind of when his season tanked. Mm-hmm. Uh, actually it began in Mayford. I have the number from May 1st on Will Smith at 2.16 with a 708 OPS. And so the injury happened to June. Maybe he was just slumping in May and then the injury happened. He says he doesn't feel like it messed up his swing,
Starting point is 00:07:38 but the numbers suggest otherwise. And Dave Roberts feels like it did mess up his swing. And he's still dealing with it. So that's a little concerning, not concerning enough for me to drop them beyond seventh. But concerning enough that I'm not necessarily like, I guess it's really the playing time thing, right? Because they did talk about how he might need more off days to compensate for this.
Starting point is 00:08:02 You brought up the opportunity for Dalton rushing. I don't think he's in line to make the Major League roster, but you would think there could be a role there, given his exposure to left field at AAA last year, as sort of a hybrid backup catcher who plays, I don't know, 35% of the time behind the plate, and then gets another, starts another third of the time in the outfield.
Starting point is 00:08:29 That would seem like a possibility at some point. I don't know that outside of in-only leagues, it's worth acting on at this point. But I've been wondering how rushing is going to get his opportunity, and this may be the opening for him. Yeah, I could see deeper two-catcher leagues, even in mixed formats, like 15-team, Roto. I have Dalton Rushing as my 27th ranked catcher.
Starting point is 00:08:51 So in a 15-team league, he could be a back-end name if he has a role early on in the season. Obviously, if you draft him and he's not on the roster, you can't really use him or have him in your starting lineup. But yeah, I think in deeper two-catcher leagues, Dalton Rushing is a name that should be on your radar, and we'll see if any positive reports come out about him. John Carlos Stanton will begin the season on the IL after receiving PRP injections in both of his shoulders, shoulders, elbows, both of his elbows. I just don't even know how this happened. Apparently it was something he was dealing with dating back to last year,
Starting point is 00:09:25 and then he had that huge postseason, so we didn't really think he was dealing with anything, but he's a DH. Like, how did he hurt his elbows? Like, what did he do? It's just... Too much flipping tires, Frank. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:09:38 Bench pressing. That was his workout program. Everybody was freaking out because, oh, he can flip tires. Yeah. As if that's a transferable baseball skill. I don't know. Maybe it is. What do I know?
Starting point is 00:09:47 I'm just a baseball analyst. Yeah. It's not like you need to bench press 500, 5 billion pounds, John Carly saying, whatever you're doing, but yeah, he's banged up, the elbows are a problem, and it seems like there could be a role for someone at DH to start the season. Ben Rice is off to a nice start so far in spring.
Starting point is 00:10:04 Maybe he's a strong side platoon. They could also choose to go with Trent Grisham in the outfield with Jason D.H because he's had his troubles playing in the field. So a couple different options there, not that they're great. There was also some whispers that the Yankees have been in contact with J.D. Martinez. So we'll see if anything comes of that. Parker Meadows has been shut down after being diagnosed with a nerve issue in his right upper arm. And bad news for Meadows, I had him as a sleeper this year. I thought a little bit of power, some speed there. Tigers have a lot of injuries right now.
Starting point is 00:10:36 Matt Verling also will not be ready for opening day due to a strained right rotator cuff muscle. So yeah, issues with the Tigers. I read last week that Wenzell Perez could have more role in their outfield to start the season. Mani Machado was scratched Friday due to back tightness. He's expected to return on Tuesday. Gunner Henderson was pretty sore on Friday. Did not play at all this weekend. Hopefully's good this upcoming week.
Starting point is 00:11:01 We'll learn more there. Chris Cotillo, who covers the, or Cotillo, who covers the Red Sox. Yeah. Who covers the Red Sox for MassLive.com said, Raphael Devers should start the season at DH. Could start the season. Excuse me. Could start the season at D.H with Alex Breggman at 3rd.
Starting point is 00:11:16 and Christian Campbell at second. Devers is still working his way back from shoulder issues. And this is only one beat writer's opinion, Scott. It's not like Alex Cora has said this is going to happen, but it is still a possibility. That is how I'm reading between the lines as well because Alex Bregman keeps playing third base in spring training. And it does seem like they're motivated to give Christian Campbell a chance.
Starting point is 00:11:46 Now, I will point out Christian Campbell has yet to get a hit this spring. He's over 12. And I imagine he'll have to show something. There's still weeks to go. I believe on Friday, he went 0 for four with four strikeouts. Right. There's still weeks to go. So he could heat up and make that an on issue.
Starting point is 00:12:03 But I do believe that's what the Red Sox actually want to happen. They're not sure. Devers is going to be in any physical state to play third base. And they're not really looking forward to his defense. fence there even if they do, even if he is. And another detail I saw from this weekend that would also seem to support this idea is Masataka Yoshida was back in the lineup playing DH. He's only throwing, he's coming back from rotator cuff surgery, he's only throwing from 45 feet.
Starting point is 00:12:39 So he's not ready to play the outfield yet. His arm isn't prepared for that, but he's able to DH. there was a suggestion though that if he's not ready to play the outfield by the time the season starts he's likely to begin the year in the minors or I'm sorry on the IL and that's Yoshita you're talking about
Starting point is 00:12:56 that's Yoshita so they don't want that sounds like they're reserving the DH spot for somebody else right if they're not willing to let Yoshita play through it they are willing to let him play through to DH in the spring but they're not willing to during the regular season again Campbell has to show something
Starting point is 00:13:11 Maybe if he doesn't, they just go with David Hamilton or Von Grissom at second base. They have other options, but it does sound to me like Devers is more likely to begin the year at DH than third base, and Breggman would begin it at third base. All right. Some other quick headlines to get through here from the weekend. Jacob de Grom will make his spring training debut this Friday. The Orioles are hopeful Felix Bottisa will make his spring training debut on Monday. Justin Steele could incorporate more changeups this season after throwing that pitch just 3% of. of the time last year. Trevor McGill made his spring debut Friday after being slowed by an unspecified injury early in camp. Cubs top prospect Matt Shaw made his spring debut Sunday after being slowed by
Starting point is 00:13:53 an oblique injury early on in camp. I believe he went 0 for three in that game. Jackson Holliday said he wants to steal 20 plus bases this season already has two steals in five spring games. The Cardinals have reassigned pitching prospect Quinn Matthews to minor league camp, which was expected as long as they don't make any trades, which they haven't so far, and nobody is hurt. They actually have a lot of depth at starting pitcher, so that is a strength for the Cardinals going into the year, but obviously pitchers get hurt, or as other teams pitchers get hurt, maybe the Cardinals look to trade from a position of strength. Javier Asaid will begin the season on the IL, one of Colin Ray, Jordan Wicks, and Ben Brown
Starting point is 00:14:32 will be the Cubs fifth starter to open the season. Michael Garcia will get time in center field this spring as the Royals want to add another option so their outfield mix. And it also sounds like in conjunction with that, Jonathan India is going to play a lot of third base for the Royals. So you can anticipate him picking up eligibility there. I don't know that it'll be on an everyday basis, but I've seen him play there a couple times this spring already.
Starting point is 00:14:55 And that's part of the incentive for giving Michael Garcia some time in center. Yeah, I think the Royals like Michael Massey quite a bit, so they still want to get him at bats. And the way to do that is Massey at second, India at third, and Michael Garcia in the outfield. or some combination of Michael Garcia at third, India at DH, whatever it might be. DJ LaMayhew also tweaked his calf on Saturday. Aaron Boone described the situation as, quote,
Starting point is 00:15:18 at least a little concerning. Oswaldo Cabrera seems like the favorite as of now to start a third base, although I believe Oswald Parazza is also battling it out for that job. Let's take a quick break when we return. We'll take a look at some stack-ass data from this weekend. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in Fantasy Baseball today. Lots to get to from the weekend.
Starting point is 00:15:38 and want to go over some Stackcast data. And I do just want to provide a little context and a reminder for people that don't overreact to this stuff, right? Like, I am bringing it up just because it's things that I notice and I want to inform the listener of what's happening if there's any velocity or pitch mix changes. But just because I say someone's velocity is up two miles per hour in two or three innings of work,
Starting point is 00:16:00 don't completely change your mindset or your opinion of a player. It's just a little bit added context and things to learn throughout spring training. So from Friday, like only Shohay Otani could, he homered in his very first step out of the spring. It's not Stackcast related, but definitely worth mentioning. And a lot of people clipped that me saying on the last show that if Shohay Otani in his spring debut Friday hit a home run,
Starting point is 00:16:27 I might have to rethink my decision to take Bobby Witt first in TGFBI, which begins Monday. Oh, yeah. So he did that. He homered in his first game. and I did rethink it. I'm sticking with Bobby Witt. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:16:42 I don't know that I want to get into why. Maybe it'll come up naturally over the course of this podcast, but I did rethink it. I mean, clearly, Shohei Otani has the higher ceiling in all five categories, I would say. And maybe not batting average, but the other four for sure. I'm sticking with Witt. All right. I'm going to run through the rest of these pitchers, Scott,
Starting point is 00:17:03 and then you can react to whoever you want to. after that, but Garrett Cole made his debut on Friday, three innings, one run, five strikeouts. He really emphasized the change-up. His curveball velocity was down 3.4 miles per hour. His slider was down 1.7 miles per hour compared to last year. Usa Kikuchi threw a new sweeper 10 times out of 47 pitches. It only had one whiff. Zebby Matthews of the Twins through three shutout innings with five strikeouts.
Starting point is 00:17:29 His velocity was up one to one and a half miles per hour on all of his pitches. He had six whiffs on 40 pitches. has looked really good so far in two spring starts. Jesus Lazzardo, two shutout innings in his Phillies debut on Friday. His velocity was up across the board. Fastball up 1.4 miles per hour. The slider, change up and sinker, all up over two miles per hour, which is a great sign for Jesus Lazzardo.
Starting point is 00:17:52 Reese Olson, two winnings, two runs, two strikeouts. His velocity was up as well. Sinker up nearly two miles per hour, change up nearly three miles per hour. Brandon Sprote, the prospect for the Mets, two shutout innings. he averaged 97 on his fastball and got all the way up to 99 miles per hour on that pitch. Ian Anderson and Grant Holmes
Starting point is 00:18:11 both through three shutout innings on Friday. Sandy Alconstra threw two shutout with three strikeouts. Scott, you were there in person to see that game. It was a pretty important one. You got to see some pretty awesome pitchers and Sandy averaged 99.1 on his fastball. Yeah, I would say he looked good.
Starting point is 00:18:29 However, the only regular in the Braves lineup was Sean Murphy, which was a disappointment to my wife and me. But yeah, the velocity was there for Sandy Alcantara. It's not so much effectiveness I worry about with him. I think he'll be effective. It's just over how many innings because workload was such a big part of his value. He was a guy who could give you eight innings any time out.
Starting point is 00:18:57 Back prior to Tommy John's surgery back when he was winning Cy Young's, that's not going to happen. his first year back from Tommy John's surgery. And the Marlins are terrible. And he hasn't ever been a big strikeout guy, you know, right at or maybe a little over a strikeout per inning. But he's probably going to, relative to the pitchers you could draft at the same point, there's a good chance he underwhelms in strikeouts, certainly in wins.
Starting point is 00:19:25 ERA should be good. So do with that information what you will. A couple of their pitchers with Stackass data from Friday. Cody Bradford, three shutout innings with three strikeouts. His Velo was up 1.5 to 2 miles per hour on all four of his pitches. Chris Bubich, two shutout with four strikeouts. He had eight whiffs on 28 pitches. Merrill Kelly, two shutout innings with two strikeouts.
Starting point is 00:19:46 His velocity up one to one and a half miles per hour on all of his pitches. And Michael Soroka, three hitless innings with three strikeouts for the Nationals. His velocity was up. Fastball up 1.4. He had six whiffs on 39 pitches. So Scott, lots of names here. Is there anyone in particular you want to just quickly mention, Soroka, Merrill Kelly, Chris Bubich, Sproat, Reese Olson, Lizardo, Zebby Matthews, Cacucci, Garikull.
Starting point is 00:20:12 Yes, there are a few things here I want to point out. Let's start with late round targets. A trio of pitchers who've gotten some attention as exciting late round targets and have so far lived up to it this spring, Cody Bradford. I wasn't even counting on the increased velocity, but if that's a thing, he might have better strikeout potential, he might come closer to actually living up
Starting point is 00:20:34 to a Bailey Ober comp instead of just a poor man's Bailey Ober. And meanwhile, Kumar Rocker has just gotten knocked around this spring. So I don't think it's much of a competition. I think the job is basically Bradford's, and I would be, I've already been motivated to use a late round pick on him.
Starting point is 00:20:52 I stay motivated to use a late round pick on him. Chris Bubich isn't as certain, to claim the fifth starter job for the royals, but so far he's doing what he needs to do. He's getting whiffs on his fastball specifically. I know the change-up was a big part of his breakthrough. Remember, just before the Tommy John surgery, it was only like a couple of turns.
Starting point is 00:21:13 Then he had Tommy John surgery, came back in the bullpen, showed that same stuff, looked great, missed a lot of bats. He's doing what he needs to do. And I am very likely to include him in some sleeper article, the rest of the rest of this draft season. Michael Soroka, the big increase in strikeouts he saw after the White Sox moved him to the bullpen.
Starting point is 00:21:38 A lot of that was him gaining velocity on his fastball. Yes, throwing it harder, which so far has continued into this spring, throwing a lot more sliders. That was the big width pitch for him. It's continued so far. Small sample, but it's continued. It's been a continuation of what we saw
Starting point is 00:21:54 at the end of last season, which seemed out of left field and seemed hard to take seriously. But if he remains that guy through spring training, I think a lot of people are sleeping on Michael Soroka. So that's that one. I was also really surprised how many bats Garrett Cole missed.
Starting point is 00:22:16 It was really encouraging to see how many bats. Of course, he's no stranger to that, but it wasn't something he did at his usual rate last season. And he was leaning on this change up that hasn't been a big part of his arsenal in the past. His quote is, it's a long road mastery for me with that pitch. It's been fun to tinker with it and get comfortable with the grip. Now it's about the consistency and how I maintain the arm speed and location. I thought it had both of those qualities tonight, so it's encouraging.
Starting point is 00:22:49 He threw that change up 33% of the time. It was his most thrown pitch. he threw it only 4% of the time last year. And I mentioned the number of bats. Garrett Cole missed nine whiffs on 46 pitches. That's a huge swinging strike rate. Of course, he was, I'm sure, facing a line. I'm not full of major leaguers.
Starting point is 00:23:08 But if you're looking for an early sign that's encouraging from Garrett Cole, who I think has been one of the hardest pitcher to rank, arguably the hardest pitcher to rank, because I just don't know who he is anymore, I would say this start was very encouraging. sign. All right, stack has data from Saturday's action. Casey mines through three hitless innings with two strikeouts. His splitter velocity was up 3.4 miles per hour compared to last year.
Starting point is 00:23:35 Kate Povich of the Orioles, three shutout innings with six strikeouts. And after the start, Adley Ruchman said, quote, everyone knows how good he is, but comfortability and confidence have allowed Povich to start having success. I don't see a spot for Povich in the Orioles rotation, but he was a prospect of note, and obviously this was a great start. And Zach Gallen's velocity improved from his first to second start. It still was down a little bit, but it was up about a mile per hour compared to his first start. So helps any concerns if anyone had those on Zach Gallant, Scott. Not as many names here, but Gallin, Povich and Casey Mize on Saturday.
Starting point is 00:24:11 Yeah, Povich, I think they laid out exactly the pecking order for the rotation. One through five is set. And then Albert Suarez, who probably will begin in the bullpen, but he clocks in as number six and then Povich is number seven. Could Povich leapfrog Suarez with a good spring performance? Yes, I think he's beginning in the minors either way, barring an injury.
Starting point is 00:24:35 But I believe wasn't the change-up also? Also the pitch that looked most impressive for him in this start. He worked on his change-up grift this off-season, Povich. And it might be something that helps bring his arsenal together. So probably beginning in the minors, somebody to keep an eye on. I would say that goes double for from the previous group, I meant to mention Zebby Matthews,
Starting point is 00:25:02 who was an elite strike thrower in the minors, just to give you the, he walked seven batters in 97 innings last year between three minor league stops, seven walks in 97 innings. And so seeing him miss all those bats this spring with the improved velocity, he might be able to sneak
Starting point is 00:25:23 into the twins rotation. They're less clear at the back end than the Orioles are. But Zebby Matthews, I think, even more than Kate Povich, needs to be on the radar as a deep sleeper. All right. And then on Sunday,
Starting point is 00:25:36 Stack has data. Christopher Sanchez's velocity has been way up in each of his first two spring starts. On Sunday, the sinker, change up, and slider were all up over two miles per hour compared to last year.
Starting point is 00:25:46 Calvin Foshea's velocity was down again, but it was an improvement from his first spring outing. So the fastball cutter curve were all down two miles per hour compared to last year. But in his first outing, I think they were down like over three miles per hour. So it seems like it is slowly being built up. Robert Suarez allowed four runs while recording just one out, and his velocity was way down.
Starting point is 00:26:08 Fastball down 2.5 miles per hour. Sinker and change up bolt down over three miles per hour compared to last year. But relievers are a little bit tougher. I mean, Ryan Helsley usually starts slow. And then by the time we get to the season, he's fine. I've noticed pretty consistently this spring reliever closer. Those are the only relievers I'm really looking at, but closer velocities are down.
Starting point is 00:26:31 And so I'm guessing they just don't throw as much at the start of camp, and so they're not as far along in their ramp-up process. But I am not inclined to worry about any of them. Robert Swar is a little more worrisome because he had some issues in the second half with hitability, leans a little too much on the fastball probably. So he's going to need his velocity, the full extent of it, I would imagine.
Starting point is 00:26:59 But I'm not concerned to the point that I'm moving down my rankings yet. All right. And no stack has data, but these two were noteworthy on Sunday. Walker Bueller made his Red Sox debut through two shutout with four strikeouts. And Robbie Ray, three shutout innings with six strikeouts, zero walks as well. I think that is a big key there for Robbie Ray. and per Justice de Los Santos, who covers the Giants for the Mercury News, Robbie Ray touched 96 miles per hour multiple times
Starting point is 00:27:25 and appeared to get a good amount of whiffs on this new change-up that he learned from Terrick Scoobles. So I wish we had Stackass data for this game, these two games in particular, Scott, but two names to pay attention to and continue, Walker Bueller and Robbie Ray. Yep, I would say Robbie Ray especially. I'm going to come out with my sleepers,
Starting point is 00:27:48 2.0 this week, I'm pretty sure Robbie Ray is going to be in it. I have been encouraged by what I've seen from him so far this spring. I was encouraged by what I saw from him for the short time he was back from Tommy John surgery last year. He regained his velocity from his 2021 Cy Young season. It was missing a ton of bats. Seems to have continued into this spring. Walker Bueller, I want to see more. I want to see data for that. He obviously has a great track record. Last year was more the exception and the rule. And we were blaming it on him coming back from a second Tommy John
Starting point is 00:28:21 and that he'd just never be the same again. But he showed signs in the postseason and, you know, by all accounts, look good in this spring start. I think it's too early to really change my views on Bueller, but I'm keeping a close eye on it. All right, not statcast, but Junior Camerro had himself a two homer game on Sunday
Starting point is 00:28:43 and the hype continues to grow. He is going to be a name that we talk about as a big riser throughout the month of February. And in case you didn't know, might have heard the sound drop a few times, but Scott released a banger this offseason highlighting Junior Camerre. We haven't played the full song since back in November or December, whenever this came out. But there's a lot more people watching and listening now that it's March. So here's the full song.
Starting point is 00:29:10 Enjoy. And you name the Ray who hit that drive over the fence that makes 35. Comanero, Cominero. Well, he's kind of slow, unlike Jackson Merrill, but his lightning quick as compared to Will Ferrell. Commonero, oh, Cominero, Cominero, swings not long, zones not wide,
Starting point is 00:29:46 a few practice hacks make pictures want to hide. Comanero, Cominero, finally beating out all the utility swords, Service time manipulation is matter for the cords. Commonero. Come in arrow. Every ball off his bat's like a laser hot beam.
Starting point is 00:30:07 He's a beel-mash, bump, and crashline drive the machine. Comanero. Come in arrow. Ha! Cominero! Come in arrow. Awesome stuff there, Scott. Do you want to provide some context, some background?
Starting point is 00:30:31 Because you'll do a better job than I will. Well, I just, if you didn't watch The Simpsons in its heyday, you might not get what that song is parodying. It's the Canyon Arrow, excuse me, Canyon Arrow, the Sport Utility Vehicle that Krusty the Clown was tasked with, you know, promoting in the episode, The Last Temptation of Krust. So that was a song from that. But I decided to make it Cominero instead because that's what I always thought when I heard his name. I thought about that song. And very relevant because so far
Starting point is 00:31:10 this offseason we have gotten some big home runs from Junior Camerro. First in the Dominican Winter League finals and then two homers here on Sunday and he's a popular breakout candidate. We'll talk about him more in just a little bit. Got a few things that I want to promote. It's about that time.
Starting point is 00:31:27 Fantasy baseball today, listener leagues are coming. Here's what you need to know. There are two listener leagues. One is a 12-team Hatt-Head Points League. That will draft on Tuesday evening, March 25th time to be determined, but my guess is 8 p.m. Eastern Time or later. Probably more realistic 9 p.m. Eastern Time. The other is a 16-team Head-Ted Categories League.
Starting point is 00:31:49 That draft will be the next night, Wednesday evening, March 26th. If you want to participate in these drafts and compete against Scott, Chris and myself, email something creative to fantasy baseball at cbsi.com. That's the letter I. Fantasy baseball at cbsi.com. Sending something funny, a Photoshop, a song, a poem, a haiku, or just tell us why you deserve to be in one of the listener leagues. Tell us which one you want to be in and make sure that you actually have availability
Starting point is 00:32:20 for the night that we are drafting. Make sure to put FBT Listener League in the email subject line, and I will announce the winners on Friday, March 21st. Good luck to all. Next up, we have a new draft day event that we are launching this year for the first time. And we are hoping to make this an annual event for Fantasy Baseball Today and our community of listeners and people who watch us here on YouTube. It's called Fantasy Baseball Today mock draft Megastream. What is this? An entire day of drafts. That's exactly what it is. We are going to live stream five drafts. in a row. CBS, Yahoo, ESPN, Underdog, and NFBC. When is that happening? Thursday, March 13th,
Starting point is 00:33:05 I believe, start time will either be 3 or 4 p.m. Eastern time. We're probably looking at at least an 8-hour live stream, I'd imagine. So five drafts in a row. If we need to fill time in between, we'll take your questions for those watching us live. So trying to make this kind of a fun, new thing and help people regardless of where you play on CBS, ESPN, Yahoo, NFB, It doesn't matter. More details to come, but it will be on Thursday, March 13th, so mark that on your calendars. Final break, when we return, we will finally talk about ADP risers and fallers right after this. Welcome back in ADP risers and fallers throughout February. So here's what I did. I took NFBC ADP from January, and I took ADP from February. And there were 230 drafts in January, 208 in February. So some pretty big samples.
Starting point is 00:33:57 here. I just compared February and yeah, just whoever was the were the biggest risers and fallers and we'll start inside of the top 100 picks, Scott. And the five biggest risers, Anthony Santanderer of 12 spots from 94 to 82. Tyler Glass now up 10 spots from 114 to 104, junior Camerero up 10 spots from 87 to 77, Jordan Westberg up nine spots from 85 to 76, and Pete Alonzo up eight spots from 54 to 46. So for Santander and Alonzo, it's because they signed with teams, I assume, like Santander to the Blue Jays, Alonzo back to the Mets. It's this weird thing on an FBC where if a guy hasn't signed yet, there's this concern
Starting point is 00:34:45 that he might never sign. It's, I don't know. I don't know why that always happens, but it's, if you do happen to play in those lees, and not many people do. but it might make sense to sign up for one early just so you get to take advantage of those discounts. For the high-end free agents I'm talking about, obviously not like a J.D. Martinez,
Starting point is 00:35:06 you mentioned earlier, who legitimately may not sign. But Pete Alonzo was going to have a team in 2025. It was never a question. Tyler Glass now, he's healthy for now. He's throwing in spring. So that's good news for him. I mentioned that he was up. The price for Camerero is getting steep.
Starting point is 00:35:23 here. I mean, I wrote him up as a breakout, but he's all the way up to 77th overall in February. And after a two-homeer game, probably going to climb even more. After the two-homer game, after playing that song again, there's no way. That price isn't coming down. It's unfortunate, because I just, I don't think I'm going to have any junior common arrow. I'm excited about him. I think he very well could be a huge breakout player this year. but you're giving up some really bankable talent in that 70 to 80 range where he's now going. And, you know, is it more likely junior Cominero breaks out or Luis Robert bounces back? Because at this point, I mean, is Cominero going ahead of Robert?
Starting point is 00:36:14 Did he go ahead of Robert in February? Yeah, in February it was Camerero at 77, Luis Robert at 80. I don't know. I think I'd rather have Robert, and I'm not the biggest Robert fan, but we've seen him produce at a stud level before. And Common Arrow, it's still theoretical. I'm hopeful. I'm hopeful. But it's, he really has to to live up to that price tag.
Starting point is 00:36:41 You can't, he can't afford to get less than his best outcome. I mean, his best outcome is like Austin Riley. He doesn't quite need to give you that, but he needs to give you a lot. Who would you rather have Scott Kamenaro or Westberg? Because they are both on the rise and they're both going inside the top of 80 picks now. I think I'm going to say Westberg. I know I rank Westberg higher, so I'm going to say Westberg. For the other names here, are you looking to...
Starting point is 00:37:10 Am I high on Combinaro or am I low on Combinero? I know it's confusing based on the last 10 minutes of this podcast. I guess relative to the consensus, I'm low. It's unfortunate. Yeah. Well, you were high on him in the offseason, Scott, before you knew he was the top. up 80 pick or so in ADP. The other names here, Santanderer at 82, GlassNow at 104, Alonzo at 46.
Starting point is 00:37:31 Do those all sound okay and fair to be rising? Yeah, I mean, Glassnow, remember last season ended with some concern over the elbow ligament. So I think people needed to see him coming back and looking like himself as he has so far the spring. and 104, that's probably lower than I have him. Yeah, it's definitely lower than I have him. So I think he could stand to go out more. It is weird that he's being drafted so much later than a year ago when if he is healthy as he appears to be as he says he is.
Starting point is 00:38:07 The facts on the ground really haven't changed. He's an injury prone pitcher for the Dodgers who for the time he's healthy, for however long he's healthy, is going to give you fantastic race. that might be good enough to justify a much higher price than this. So I think he's a good value at 104. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:38:27 I think specifically in the NFBC, it's a little bit tougher because they don't have IL spots. But we've talked about this. If you play in leagues, you know, 12 team head to head leagues or leagues that have IL spots or both, if you're a 12 team head to head league has IL spots, then I think it's easier to take someone like last down because the replacement value is much better. And if he gets hurt, you just put him on the IL. but when he pitches, I still have confidence he's going to perform like a top 12-ish starting pitcher. Again, that's Tyler Glass now.
Starting point is 00:38:56 He's 83rd on Yahoo, so 20 spots higher than this. Yeah, that makes sense. The biggest fallers in the top 100 throughout February, Roki Sasaki is down 16 spots from 86 to 102. Felix Bautista down 10 spots from 84 to 94. Mason Miller down six spots from 58 to 64. Ryan Helsley down five spots from 65 to 70. Andres Munoz down four spots from 92 to 96. The last three there are the closers.
Starting point is 00:39:23 I think that's just a little market correction. The NFBC is pretty aggressive on closers. But the first two here, Scott, Sasaki down to 102 and Batista down to 94. What do you think on those price tags? Would you be looking to buy a little bit of a dip there on either one, Sasaki and Batista? Everything I've read about Felix Batista has been promising. I think they're not like 100% he's going to avoid NIL stint at the beginning of the season. I think the expectation he needs to make seven appearances,
Starting point is 00:39:58 have seven appearances this spring or something like that. So there's a concern that he may just not be quite all the way ready, but it doesn't sound like there are concerns about the way he's throwing the ball off of Tommy John surgery. I have him 119, so actually lower than where he's going. but as you mentioned, there tends to be a markup on closers in NFBC leagues. So I'm probably just in terms of how I evaluate him
Starting point is 00:40:29 in line with consensus. Roki Sasaki, I wasn't sure it was going to play out this way. I thought there would be, since he signed with the Dodgers and the Dodgers have a great reputation of player development, and of course look like the best team in baseball,
Starting point is 00:40:43 so you generally want pitchers on better teams so they have a better chance of winning games. I thought that would prompt people to be more aggressive in drafting Roki Sasaki. They would view it as a good thing. And initially, that did seem to be where it was landing. But I guess it's been talked through enough by people like me and other people in the industry that the Dodgers probably are for his short-term value, one of the worst places he could have gone because they have so many pitchers,
Starting point is 00:41:18 and they mostly, their goal with Roki Sasaki this year above anything else's preservation. They want him there for the games that matter most. They're obviously going to the playoffs, no matter if he throws a single pitch for them during the regular season. So I'd be surprised if he got to 130 innings,
Starting point is 00:41:36 to be honest. And I have him even lower than what he's dropped to because of that. I have him 137th. Yeah, the projections on fan graphs all have him for like 130 to 140 innings this season. 23 and 24th starts respectively for those projections. That's probably okay, 130 to 140 range. I could, you know, see something like that for Sasaki. But even with him falling in NFBC ADP in February,
Starting point is 00:42:09 Sasaki's still going ahead of Tyler Glass now, Luis Castillo, Max Fried, Hunter Green, Logan Webb in the month, and I think both you and I would agree that that's still too high for Sasakis. Freed is insane, going ahead of Freed. But a Glass Now, that doesn't really make sense either because I imagine the workload issues for them are similar. I mean, if Rogi Sasakis is good
Starting point is 00:42:31 as Glass Now inning per inning, that is like a best case scenario performance-wise. I don't think you should assume that. I think it's very much he could be anything. He can even be Tyler Glass. now situation to borrow Chris's expression. Yeah. The biggest risers in the top 200,
Starting point is 00:42:51 so the 100 to 200 range in NFBC ADP. Carlos Estevez is up 50 spots from 257 to 207. He did sign with the Royals late in January, January 29th, but he's now dealing with a back injury. There was a story on MLB.com. mentioned that last week, that Lucas Ersig could have the highest leverage spots throughout the game. Jeff Hoffman is up 25 spots from 176 to 151.
Starting point is 00:43:16 Jerks and ProFar up 24 spots from 196 to 172. Tanner Scott, up 24 spots from 178 to 154. And Spencer Strider up 17 spots from 139 to 122, Scott. Any names here that I realize it said in the top 200 and Estevez is here at 207. So I'm cheating a little bit. But are there any names here that in particular you, agree or disagree either way with them rising ADP. I agree with all of them,
Starting point is 00:43:48 but I want to pump the brakes a little bit on Carlos Estevez now, not just because of the injury, but because it's being talked about among Royals beatwriters as if it's more of a committee situation between him and Lucas Erseg than just Estevez outright being the closer. And we got even something more, more, I guess, working against, it works against Estavaz, this report from their MLB.com writer suggesting that ERSEG will be the highest leverage guy regardless of the inning. Generally speaking, you tend to think, though, play pitchers in that role will work the ninth inning more than any other inning. So will the back injury potentially just push Ursaig into the closer roll outright?
Starting point is 00:44:43 That doesn't seem implausible. I think I am at the point now where I would draft Erseg ahead of Estevez. I think he's a better pitcher and he's clearly going to be in a better situation at the start of the year. And he may just never give it up. So that doesn't mean I'm drafting him as high as I was before the Estevez signing, but I'm drafting him higher than Estevez. As for Hoffman, yeah, most of these guys, it's just they signed, and so they moved up. Like I said, always happens on NFBC.
Starting point is 00:45:16 Jeff Hoffman, Juerks and Profar, Tanner Scott. They all signed late in January. And I think they signed in scenarios that are good for them, except maybe Scott who could face more threats for, for having save opportunities vultured from him with the Dodgers than he might have with other teams, but they have said he is the favorite for saves going in, the guy they're mainly looking at for the ninth inning going in.
Starting point is 00:45:47 So 154 doesn't seem like a high cost relative to other closers in NFPC. It doesn't seem like too high of a cost. Strider, I have him in my top 100, so him inching up to 122, I think makes sense. I'm on board with that. but yeah, late April probably for his return. I did want to bring up three honorable mentions that are also rising in the 100 to 200 range. Mike Trout up 14 picks to 107, Alex Briggman up 14 picks to 121,
Starting point is 00:46:13 and East Hoc Paratus up 11 picks to 179. For Trout, I guess it's just because he's healthy for now. I don't really see another reason that he'd be rising. Bregman to Boston, obviously a great place for his swing and just a good landing spot, a great lineup to be in. And I think some market correction on Paredes, but still not high enough at 179. So any thoughts on these prices? Scott, Mike Trout at 107, Bregman, 121, and Paredes at 179.
Starting point is 00:46:41 So I've always been high on Paredes. He was one of the players I love from the Valentine's Day episode. 179 is getting higher. I still have him 130. So you still got a ways to go to catch up to me. And honestly, same thing's true with Bregman. I do think he could have landed in some venues that really risked crushing his fantasy value, but clearly Boston wasn't one of them, short of returning to Houston.
Starting point is 00:47:06 It was the best place he could have gone. And in fact, it may actually be better than Houston because of the batting average he figures to gain, banging so many balls off that green monster. Ball prediction, I think Bregman's going to have a career high batting average this year. and so I am eager to draft him at his going rate, if not earlier. Like I said, I have him 81. Career high batting average, you say, Scott. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:47:34 We're going to put this to the test. He hit 296 back in 2019. I think he could hit over 300 in Boston. It's a bold prediction. Like, I'm not willing to guarantee it. But I don't think it's hearing that doesn't really back me down from that bold prediction. Yeah. Breggman typically in the 260 range, but yeah, I could see him getting up over 275, 280, something like that for Breggman this upcoming season.
Starting point is 00:48:00 The biggest fallers in the 100 to 200 range, Trevor McGill is down 25 spots from 143 to 168 to 168. Shane Baez down 14 spots from 189 to 203. Robert Suarez down 12 spots from 108 to 120. Saydon Raphaela down 10 spots from 176 to 186. and Robbie Ray down nine picks from 166 to 175. That is going to reverse course because the way Robbie Ray has looked and this talk of him learning a change up from Terrick School,
Starting point is 00:48:30 but I have no doubt that the ADP is going to go the other way and it's probably going to climb back up here, Scott. But are you looking to buy on any of these players falling? McGill, Baz, Suarez, Raphaela, Ray, or do you maybe agree that they should be falling? as I understand and I mean 120 is still pretty early for a closer so I don't think it's crazy how much he's fallen
Starting point is 00:48:54 but yeah I think it makes sense that people are taking a second look at him and are a little wary he's not maybe as bankable as he seemed just looking at his overall numbers last year Trevor McGill I'm not with it at all the drop of 25 spots I already thought he was kind of undervalued at 143 and I hope
Starting point is 00:49:16 like as somebody who goes who tends to go really cheap at closer even in those deeper rotissary leagues I kind of hope he doesn't rise back up because I like being able to bank on Trevor McGill that late in the draft I think it's just because he had that
Starting point is 00:49:32 undisclosed injury in spring training which who knows what it could have been you know maybe he was just really sick or something I don't know he's back pitching though and is clearly the favorite for saves there. And based on what he showed us last year, I think he'll do fine in that role. He might have a better season than Robert Suarez, who knows.
Starting point is 00:49:53 So definitely not on board with him falling. Happy that he is falling, though. And I'll say the same for Robbie Ray, who as I said probably is getting added to my sleepers 2.0 here. I have Ceylon Raphaela as a bust. I am kind of concerned about Shane Baws because he just hasn't Returning from Tommy John surgery
Starting point is 00:50:17 he didn't show the same bite on that slider did not miss bats at a particularly high rate And I've seen no evidence so far this spring that that's a short-term phenomenon Seems like he might just be a different pitcher now He may figure out a way to succeed without it But kind of a guessing game what Shane Baas is actually going to be.
Starting point is 00:50:39 All right. The biggest risers in the top 350 in February 80p. Ryan Presley is up 206 spots from 414 to 208. He was traded to the Cubs on January 28th. Max Scherzer up 94 spots from 401 to 307. Grant Holmes is up 60 spots from 366 to 306. Kenley Jansen up 42 spots from 249 to 207. And Jonathan Ironda's guy, your boy, up three. up 40 spots from 355 to 315.
Starting point is 00:51:11 Are there any names here that you disagree with moving up quite a bit? Presley at 208, Cherser up to 307, Grant Holmes up to 306, Kenley Janssen up to 207, and Jonathan Aronda up to 315. No, I think I'm on board with all of them. And I think the main reason they're moving up is because they're getting talked up by people like us. and, you know, Holmes certainly has gotten a lot of attention on this podcast and others. Jonathan Ronda, I've been talking about him for years at this point. Max Scherzer, I feel like recently we've kind of began to build buzz for him again.
Starting point is 00:51:54 Just being reminded that he's still dominated on an inning-per-in-ning basis, still missed a lot of bats. So it wasn't as clear of a decline as for Verland. I don't know that I'd want to draft them much inside the top 300, so it's getting to a perilous point because of the injury risk. But yeah, I'm happy to take them at the price he's going for now. And then obviously Presley and Jansen, now they're in line to be closers, and that wasn't clear prior to February. A couple honorable mentions here that are also rising Clayhomes is up 37 picks from up to 281.
Starting point is 00:52:35 Jackson Job is up 21 picks to 265. I mentioned this on our last podcast. I'm currently in an NFBC slow draft. Clay Holmes went 2-17 in this draft, and in NL Labor this weekend, Clay Holmes went for, I think, $13 or something? 12 bucks, so. I got him for nine in the CBS and a lonely auction.
Starting point is 00:52:59 I know the 80 pieces, February, 281 in February. I think that number is a lot higher. I think Clay Holmes is like close to 200 now if you really want to get him. Well, I mean, we do have data since February. You want to take a peek at that. I don't know if that throws off your whole methodology here. 21 drafts from February 28th on.
Starting point is 00:53:24 Let's do that. 235. Okay. Not quite there. But moving up. Yeah. And if he continues to perform well this spring, imagine that trend will continue.
Starting point is 00:53:36 And the biggest fallers in the top 300. Lucas Erseg down 100 spots from 145 to 245. We talked about that, maybe a bit of a buying opportunity there. Kirby Yates down 53 to 16. Cabot Ruiz down 13 from 194 to 207. Trevor Story down 11 from 254 to 265. Tyler Fitzgerald down 10 spots from 234 down to 24. Scott, are you looking to maybe pounce on any of these fallers?
Starting point is 00:54:06 Lucas Ursaig, Kirby Yates, Kbert Ruiz, Trevor Story, Tyler Fitzgerald. Erseg, based on what I said a minute ago, I'm going to move him up some and Estevez down. I imagine I won't be the only one doing that, so I don't know that he's going to continue to go in the 245 range for long. I think, I wish Yates was a little bit cheaper. I could see Yates dropping to a point where I'm excited to take him because I think, there's a good chance he vultures a dozen saves
Starting point is 00:54:35 or more so deep roto league not everybody's going to have use for a guy like that but deep roto leagues you do
Starting point is 00:54:41 uh Tyler Fitzgerald I think the price is okay he's a big mystery box Tyler Fitzgerald because it doesn't
Starting point is 00:54:54 make any sense how he performed like he did last year so I get it I get being scared off from him but he did that And throughout his minor league career, too.
Starting point is 00:55:03 Certainly the last couple years in the minors, he performed in spite of really ugly strikeout rates and ex-velocity readings. And I don't know. There just may be something we're all missing. And I think I'm not eager to draft them at 244, you know, just inside the top 250 there. But I'm okay with it.
Starting point is 00:55:21 If particularly if I need kind of a, if I need speed for sure, if I need speed from a middle infielder, I'm definitely okay with it. Yeah. Kirby Yates, the price there. I mentioned 216. in February 80p.
Starting point is 00:55:34 I mentioned I'm in that slow draft that's going on right now, 15 Team Roto, and I got them all the way down at 253. So there are drafts where Kirby Yates could slip a little bit. I took Mason Miller early on in this draft as my first closer, and then I waited from there, but it felt like late enough to take a shot. Kirby Yates at 253, and then I think I took a roll as Chapman like three rounds later. So those are my three relievers so far and going to continue to build out that depth.
Starting point is 00:56:01 All right, we're going to go a little bit longer here on this podcast because I do want to talk about these labor drafts a little bit and for those drafting in AL and NL-only league just give you a little bit of a sense of what Chris and I were trying to do in our respective drafts this weekend. And so we're going to, like I said, go a little bit longer here. But Labor Auction Recaps, the League of Alternative Baseball Reality.
Starting point is 00:56:23 I participated in the NL-only. Chris was in the AL-only, and there are obviously other great players, people from all around the industry that we're playing in these leagues with us as well. Some unique rules. The players you draft basically have to stay in your lineup. You can only bench a player if they go on the IL, they get demoted, or you have to drop that player if you want to get them out of your lineup.
Starting point is 00:56:47 A $260 standard size budget for my draft, I spent 67% on hitting 33% on pitching. The goal was to play the middle of the draft, Scott. And we've talked about this. The deeper you go into. a particular draft format, maybe spreading that money out and getting some higher floor players, guys that you think are going to get some playing time.
Starting point is 00:57:09 So, I mean, I really, really leaned into it. I did not get a single player over $25. I executed the plan to perfection. Now we're going to find out if that plan was the correct plan. So I don't know if that was the correct plan, but at least for me, that's what I wanted to do and that's what I achieved in doing so. Yeah, so just to elaborate on that a little bit,
Starting point is 00:57:30 we talk sometimes about how the waiver wire is scarce in 15 team roto leagues. Well, if you're doing 12 team or 12 team roto league with half the player pool, only AL or only NL, that's more like a 24 team roto league, right? So it's that much deeper, which is to say it doesn't exist. You can get some relievers off the waiver wire. And of course, occasionally there will be a call up or something that nobody had rostered already. But, like, what you draft is basically your roster.
Starting point is 00:58:06 And so just getting playing time from every spot is a big part of this. And so what you're saying about not wanting to, this is definitely not the format to go studs and duds because you want to spend, I don't know, like at least $5 on every position, if you get down to the $2.3 range in an AL or in a Lonely League, it's very likely that's just going to be a black hole in your lineup, you know, somebody who doesn't contribute much of anything. It doesn't always work out that way, but you certainly can't trust in it. So I've found that you said you didn't want to spend more than 25.
Starting point is 00:58:43 I try not to go 30. And we do. I don't play in labor, but I run the CBS AL and NL-only auctions. If you want to review those, you could find them on the site. We did NL last week. We did A all the week before. And, you know, you can compare those prices to these. There are some similarities.
Starting point is 00:59:05 There are some differences. But I play in those every year, and I found the same thing. When I distribute my dollars more evenly, it doesn't have to be perfectly evenly. It doesn't have to be $14 on every roster spot. I wouldn't advise that. But if you go too big on anyone player, it's kind of hard to fill out your roster the way you need to. All right. So for those watching us here on YouTube, I'm going to pull up the draft board so you can just check this out. It is a little bit tougher to see just because there's a lot of names and colors and lots of things going on here.
Starting point is 00:59:38 But reading off my hitters first, I did pay up for catchers. I got Sean Murphy and Tyler Stevenson, $12 each. Michael Bush for $9. Tyro Estrada for 12, Mason Win for 19, Austin Riley for 25, Otto Lopez for 12, Josh Bell for 7, Sayas Suzuki for 21. Tommy Edmund for 18, Lars Neupar for 11, Max Kepler for five, Zach Veen for one, and Jamer Candelario for 10. The one that stands out, Zach Veen for a dollar. I don't know if he's going to be on the opening day roster. He's looked good in spring so far, but he is on a 40-man roster for the Rockies. I think if he continues to play well in spring, maybe he is on their opening day roster.
Starting point is 01:00:19 And like I mentioned, this unique format, if one of your players gets demoted, you can actually take that player out of your lineup. So in the reserve rounds, I grabbed a few outfielders, guys that are probably not going to play very much. But that does allow me some flexibility, even if Zach Feen does not make the opening day roster, Scott. What do you think of the way I put together the offense here? I was wondering about speed at first, though.
Starting point is 01:00:44 I am reminded Mason Winnis set a goal of stealing 40 bases. I'm counting on him being a much bigger base dealer this year. It's just you got him and you got Tyro Estrada at second Tyro Estrada stole what one or two bases last year. But of course, we're hoping he bounces back. It's a lot of hoping it's stolen base, right? Between Mason Wynn and Tyro Estrada and Zach Veen making the roster. I think he got Otto Lopez there. I think Lopez could give 20.
Starting point is 01:01:12 I think Edmund could give 25 plus, something like that. That seems like a good outfield. I like the way you distributed your dollars in the outfield. Of course, Vien may end up being a wild. waste, but it's hard to get all five outfield spots filled with somebody bankable. I would have probably distributed those catcher dollars elsewhere and just looking at some of the catcher costs, like JT. Rermuda went for 13. That was a good buy.
Starting point is 01:01:41 Which is one more. Yeah, that was the best. Like, I've tried, like, I'm trying to do something different this year where instead of kind of planning out my roster before the auction, I'm going to try to, uh, just wait to see what the best values I can get and lock those in first and then work around those. And so I'm hoping to be the guy who takes advantage of the JT Real Muto. Obviously, you can't take advantage of every value because there are more values than can
Starting point is 01:02:13 fit in one budget usually. But I don't know, $24 in a league where it's this deep where it's, it's this different. to fill every spot. I probably would have maybe gotten one of those catchers and just gone really cheap for the second catcher spot, like a Carson Kelly. I see he went for a dollar. He's probably going to get a decent number of a bets for the Cubs.
Starting point is 01:02:35 And then maybe I could have used those Tyler Stevenson's savings to get, like I see Marcel Ozuna went for 20. So if I could upgrade from Condolario to Ozuna at DH and go with the super cheap second catcher, you know, easy for me to say in retrospect, but I think
Starting point is 01:02:51 I'm a little aware, about this offense and that would relieve some of my worries. Yeah, no, there were a few good buys throughout the draft that I felt the same way about. Like, Ozzy Albi's going for 21. I thought that was a great price. Real Muto you brought up for 13. I kind of regretted not going an extra buck on one of those guys and just kind of rearranging the plan.
Starting point is 01:03:12 Marcel Lozuna for 20. I definitely was thinking about being in on that as well. So I totally hear you. I did look at the winner from last year. He had two good catchers on this team. in the first two years I competed in this format. My second catcher was always bad, like really bad, like one or two dollar players.
Starting point is 01:03:29 And it just felt like more of a detriment than anything. So I wanted a better second catcher. I think maybe I could have gotten away with like a Cabert Ruiz for nine or Herrera for eight and maybe got some savings there. But I totally get what you're saying. Well, I haven't done this before in a format like this. So I guess we'll see if it works out paying up for two good catchers. On the pitching side of things,
Starting point is 01:03:51 I wound up with Dylan C's for 25 bucks, then Sunny Gray for 16, Jesus Lazzardo for 11, Kyle Finnegan for 9, Merrill Kelly for 8, Grant Holmes for 5, Jason Adam for 5, Quinn Matthews for 4, and Calvin Foshae for 3. So a little bit of background here in this draft last year, I got David Bednar for 20, and obviously that did not work out. But instead of just paying up for one closer and then, you know, taking a few $1, you know, spec shots, I figured, let me kind of divvy it up a little bit more
Starting point is 01:04:24 and see if Kyle Finnegan can, you know, give me 25 or 20 plus saves again, or if Calvin Foshae is the closer for the Marlins, maybe that works out, or if Robert Suarez just implodes, maybe Jason Adam takes over as the closer there. And, you know, the starting pitchers, I think it was like an okay distribution.
Starting point is 01:04:43 It wasn't the exact names that I was looking to get, but in terms of just like SP1, SP2, SP3, SP4, I think it turned out okay. What do you think, Scott? I really like what you did with saves. That is a very tricky category in formats this deep because, I mean, I always have a hard time paying for saves. And there's just no way around it when there are only 15 closer possibilities out there. You know, and then I'll only league.
Starting point is 01:05:12 And I find I usually budget 15 for a closer. and I really have to go 16 or 17 and I just don't prepare myself for that and so sometimes I get left out altogether in my in a lonely league I just committed okay I'm going to spend 17 on a closer and I got Ryan Walker for 17 but you got here two presumed closers
Starting point is 01:05:34 in Kyle Finnegan and Calvin Foshe for a combined $12 I think that's the way to do it if you can get them for that low in my league Fochay went for eight instead of three three I mean that seems great. And Finnegan went for 11 instead of 9. So you got a good deal on those two. And the thing is, if they stick in the closer role, which is certainly isn't a given. I mean, they're among the worst relievers in
Starting point is 01:06:00 that role. But Finnegan, we've seen do it for a couple years now. And Fosha, I mean, who else do the Marlins have? If they stick in the closer, you might win saves. You might win saves just because you happen to have two of those guys. Well, everybody else has at most one. There's probably somebody else with two, but you know what I mean. It's not, there's definitely not enough for every team or even most teams to have two. So I think that was, I think that was good. I think overall, I wonder if you have enough starting pitching depth. I like the start there with Cease and Gray.
Starting point is 01:06:33 And Loosardo's look good this spring. Hopefully he bounces back beyond that. I don't know that we can count on Merrill Kelly anymore. I like Grant Holmes as a sleeper, but I don't know that I'm totally confident he's going to stick in the rotation. That's fair. Yeah. And then beyond those four, there's nobody you can count on.
Starting point is 01:06:54 I mean, Bailey falters, Scott. Come on. I did wind up with Quinn Matthews here. As I mentioned earlier, unique format where if someone gets demoted, it gives you a little bit more flexibility to put another pitcher in your lineup. So I drafted Quinn Matthews knowing that he will not be in my opening day lineup. And I'm just hoping for him to be up by like, or June and make an impact from that point on.
Starting point is 01:07:17 I have to fill him in with like Bailey Falter or Bobby Miller in the meantime. This is a league that allows trades. So potentially could be looking to make some trades there at some point this season. That was my NL only team. I am going to pull up Chris's AL Labor team real quick. And we'll take a look at that just to see how he. I'll just criticize that too. I don't have to put my team up.
Starting point is 01:07:42 I just get to criticize yours. Yes, you are, that is your role today. You are the judge and the jury. And speaking of judge, Chris Towers wound up with Aaron Judge on his team. He spent 59% of his budget on hitting 41% on pitching. And once you see it, you'll notice. I mean, this is a pretty strong pitching staff here for Chris. So at catcher, he did go bottom of the barrel.
Starting point is 01:08:06 Well, this will be interesting because he did what we didn't want to do. He spent a ton of money on one player. And so we'll see if the lower end players give him enough to justify that move. At catcher, he has Christian Vasquez for two and Kyle Teal for one. Seth Brown for three, Will Wagner for two, Jacob Wilson for 10, Jose Miranda for three, Marcelo Mayer for two, Gio Orchella for three, Aaron Judge for 46, Anthony Santanderer for 24, Mike Chowd for 24, Randy Rosarina for 21, J.J. Bladay for 10. Harrison Peter for two.
Starting point is 01:08:43 So he wound up with one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight players, eight hitters in his lineup that are $3 or less. But, I mean, the outfield is tremendous. Like, maybe that could just carry him. He also needs Mike Trot to stay healthy, which is not a sure thing. Yeah, yeah, that's a big, that's the thing. I think if, I think if you're buying judge, if you're committing that much to one player in a league this deep, you got to, you got to treat the rest of.
Starting point is 01:09:11 your draft like that first chapter in Moneyball where it didn't make it to the movie. But if you read the book, it was like the A's draft from that year. And they didn't want to take a risk on anybody. They wanted to make sure they hit all their picks. So it was just super, super, super safe. That was like when they got Nick Swisher or whatever that year of the draft. Anyway, that's how I think you need to play it. And Trout is not somebody I would have gone for unless it was at an obvious discount.
Starting point is 01:09:47 24 doesn't seem like that. He went for 18 in the CBSA, a lonely league for what it's worth. So, yeah, I just don't have enough confidence in him staying healthy to invest that much capital in him after already dumping so many into judge. So that would be my biggest critique. He actually, Krista actually did pretty well here to fill out his lineup with players who are going to play. his second catcher Kyle Teal, okay, it might be well he plays Marcello Meyer.
Starting point is 01:10:15 He said he was trying to get somebody to bid three on him and he kind of got caught with taking Meyer as his middle end fielder. So those spots are clearly problems. And a lot of these players are just they're in line for platoon roles probably,
Starting point is 01:10:31 Seth Brown, Will Wagner, Harrison Bader. Then there's somebody like Gio Urshel in the corner infield spot. He may not be good. good enough to hold on to a starting role all season just because he's starting out there. So I'm not confident it's going to go right, but I think Chris gave himself a chance with the hitters.
Starting point is 01:10:51 He managed to slot in around Judge there. All right. And then I mentioned he spent more money on pitching than I did. And up top, he's got Josh Hader at $24. George Kirby at 22, Grayson Rodriguez at 19, Yusay Kukuchi at 10, Max Scherzer at 8, Lucas Erseg at 8, Jackson Job at 7, Edwin Hussaita at 5, Cody Bradford at 4. So the pitching staff, I think it looks awesome. I mean, he's got a top tier closer.
Starting point is 01:11:20 He might have a second closer in Lucas Hercig. If P. Fairbanks can't stay healthy and the velocity remains down, like maybe Edwin Houssaeta gets saves as well. And the starters look really good too. And I mentioned this is a trading league. So if most likely Chris winds up with a strength on the pitching side, he could, you know, maybe trade one or two pitchers for hitters throughout the season. Yeah, so your fourth starter was Grant Holmes?
Starting point is 01:11:43 It was Merrill Kelly. Or, I mean, if you like Grant Holmes more, maybe he's SP4. But, yeah, I viewed it as like Merrill Kelly as my SP4. Okay, so Grant Holmes was five. Yeah. Okay, so he's like a starting pitcher deeper here because he's got Kirby, Grayson, Kikuchi, Scherzer, Job, and Bradford. So he's got six that I think are going to be more or less.
Starting point is 01:12:06 good. Obviously, Scherzer may not stay healthy. Maybe Jackson Joe doesn't pan out, spend some time in the minors. It's never all, there's never going to be a scenario where it all works out. But he's given himself, I think, a little bit of a buffer there. And save shouldn't be an issue just by virtue of having Hater. If Erseg and Usaita spent any time in the closer role, he gives himself a chance of winning that category, just like you did, but in a different way. A way, I, what did he spend up between those three? He spent 24 on Hater alone. and then Useda was five, Erseg was eight. So, you know, he spent 37, you spent 13. I'd rather spend 13.
Starting point is 01:12:44 But, you know, it's good, it's good to have a lot of something, and he has a lot of saves there, seemingly. So I feel a lot better about Chris's pitching staff than his,
Starting point is 01:12:55 than the hitter side, for sure. Yeah. And it makes sense, because as I mentioned, 41% of his budget here throughout the auction was devoted to pitching. So I think it's a,
Starting point is 01:13:06 pretty cool juxtaposition looking at my approach versus Chris's because he was much more aggressive on Aaron Judge and paying up for that top player and he also spent a lot more money on pitching than I did and I kind of lived in the middle. So two different approaches to AL and NL only drafts. Let us know in the comments who you think did it better between Chris and I in our labor drafts this weekend. But that's going to do it. We are going to wrap there for Scott. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a bright star rating on Apple or Spotify, and we will do back again tomorrow.
Starting point is 01:13:38 Bye-bye. Paramount Podcasts.

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