Fantasy Baseball Today - Interesting Players Who Are Backups; Sanchez/Paddack Deep Dives (05/01 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: May 1, 2020

We're taking a look at some deeper-league players plus deep diving Gary Sanchez and Chris Paddack but first, IT'S GONNA BE MAY! What are the pros and cons of Gary Sanchez in 2020 (3:23). Would you rather have J.T. Realmuto or Sanchez two rounds later? ... Taking a look at backup players who are interesting for one reason or another, Mike Ford really jumps off the page (14:10). What's his path to playing time? ... We were all so happy when Jose Martinez was traded to the Rays and then reality set in (21:10). Can he have a Yuli Gurriel-type breakout? ... Who are some players who stand out in the National League (26:15)? Tyler O'Neill has a ton of power potential plus people might be sleeping on Garrett Cooper. ... Does Nick Solak have a chance to contribute (36:43)? ... We're also taking a closer look at Chris Paddack (40:40). The guy just knows how to pitch! ... Email us at [e-mail]. 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @CBSFantasyBB, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Download our printable Draft Kit from CBSSports.com/draftkit! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive, center field, at the wall, grand slam. This is magnificent. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank Scott, Chris, and Adam.

Happy Friday, everybody, and welcome to Fantasy Baseball today, May 1st. Frank Stamphle here with Adam, Scott, and Chris. Guys, I wish that we actually did a podcast yesterday because yesterday's podcast was our live stream from Wednesday night so that I would have had the ability to play. It's going to be May before May, but now it's May 1st, so I don't know if it has the same effect. You can't play it.

If you play it, everyone's going to laugh at you. Play it. Play it. Play it. I have four different, it's going to be Mays. So I wanted to kind of get your guys' opinion on which one sounds the best. Let's go. And sync off here.

It's already May. Pretty good one. That's the best. Yeah, a little layer there. Ooh. It's going to be May. Ooh, I like that. It's either two or four.

I think it's two or three. I play him again. Play two, three, and four. Too hollow. It's going to be May. Oh, that's the one. It's four. It's four.

I'm on two. How did Justin Timberlake, of all people, become like the most enduring star of the late 90s, early 2000s pop star movement? Like, the dude with like the bleached blonde, like, gelled curly hair. I read, I didn't really have a good voice. I see your, I see. I see. I see your Justin Timberlake and I raise you Jennifer Lopez.

What do you think? Yeah, yeah, I mean, I agree with that. Actually, that's fair. J-Lo is much better than Justin Timberlake. Justin Timberlake, low-key. No, he's, I think he's very talented. I think he's a good actor, and I think he's very handsome, Chris. I'm no problem with Justin.

I'm a big Timberlake fan. I'm voting for number two. Scott's voting for number four, Chris. What's going to be? Number two! Yeah. Number two! Number four didn't even make my shortness.

It wasn't even in its top four. All right, it's going to be May. I think my biggest takeaway there was that Chris is jealous of Justin Timberlake because he has awesome bleached hair that is very curly and awesome. And Chris just shaved his head again today. So that's what I'm gathering from this discussion. But today on the show, what I want to do is I want to get everybody involved. So I want to talk to some of the shallower leagues.

I want to get into some of the deeper leagues. We'll answer your questions a little bit later on. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. I want to do two deep dives today. We haven't done two on one show, but we're going to deep dive Gary Sanchez and Chris Paddock. That is for our shallower leagues. And then in our deeper leagues,

we're going to get into some interesting players who are backups on their current teams. Things might change with the Universal DH, but we'll talk it out. But that's where I want to start. I want to start off with a deep dive for Gary Sanchez, who I think most people have universally ranked inside their top two at the catcher position.

Look, when I was deep diving Gary Sanchez myself, he's such an interesting person to try and figure out because we know that he has all the upside in the world. Like 34 home runs last year was first at the position, 77 RBIs,

second at the position. He just hasn't been able to stay healthy. He's stayed healthy for 122 games just once in his career. The plate discipline, career high chase rate last year, year, tons of strikeouts, the swinging strike rate. Like, the batted ball data, career high, 42% hard contact rate last year, by far the

lowest ground ball rate. And he also raised his line drives. He raised his fly balls from last season as well. It's just trying to figure out Gary Sanchez is one of the most confusing things for me. Scott, I mean, you know, I've heard you say in the past that you want to rank him as. your number one catcher. I mean, what is holding you back from doing that? A couple of things. I think the floor is lower than Rio Muto. I think the, obviously, the health

concerns are probably the biggest thing. But, you know, 34 home runs leading the position. He did that in 106 games, which is worth pointing out. I do feel like we have yet to see the very best version of Gary Sanchez, and yet he's already 27, which is getting up there for a catcher. You know, usually by age 30, we're expecting a drop-off, so he's got to deliver his best outcome soon if it's ever going to happen, and yet he took a step back in terms of performance last year. When we were most excited about Gary Sanchez, the year he first came up and hit 20 homers and 53 games. And what to this point is his best year, that sophomore season, when he hit 278 with 33 home runs,

he was a more well-rounded hitter. It wasn't just all about the power. But since then, the strikeouts have gone up. And you noted that he hit fewer ground balls than ever. I think he went a little too far in that direction. I mean, the expected batting average shows it. He hit only 247. He went from having a kind of average bad bit profile where you'd expect the best.

Babbitt to be right around 300 to a bad Babbitt profile. It was only 244 last year, and it led to him hitting 232. So his expected batting average was 247? Yeah, yeah. And he had 232. You know, he hit 232, so he still had, you know, you could interpret that as he had some bad luck in that regard, but he's got to reverse those trends to get back to being a, you know, a competent source of batting average. So I'm a little concerned that he's skill-wise he's trending the wrong way and there's the constant injury risk with him. So I'm never that excited to draft him. I've been much more, even though he goes earlier, I've been much more likely to draft Real Muto this year than I have been Sanchez. I'm happy enough to wait for, you know, whichever goes last of Wilson

Contreras, Yasmani Grandal and Mitch Garver. Because relative to where they're going, I think Sanchez's downside might be more dangerous. In conclusion, Gary Sanchez is a land of contrasts. But you know he's going to hit a lot of home runs. There's no way he won't. He is an incredibly extreme hitter. You know, when he hits the ball, he hits it really, really hard. 99th percentile in barrel rate, 84th percentile on exit velocity.

The problem is, you know, he actually lowered his pop-up rate last season, but the problem is he increased his fly ball rate. So the number of pop-ups are dead balls, basically. They just, you might as well not run to first base, especially for fantasy, because if it does drop in, it's an error anyway. And so you're taking a significant number of his at-bats, and you're basically lopping off 28% of them with, strikeouts, you're lopping off 18 or 12% of them with pop-ups, you know, that leaves only 60% of his at-bats where something good can happen. That's a really tough profile to make work. Now, he has the skills to do that, specifically with the power, but I don't know, at this point, it's hard to see him ever getting back to that, you know, 292 expected batting average that he had in 2017. You know, he would have to take a significant step forward. in terms of his skills, and I'm not sure that's coming. Adam, I know that you like to look at splits.

You are big on splits here, and Gary Sanchez, I mean, part of what's so frustrating to evaluate is that last year, he was great against righties, was not so great against left-handed pitching, a 200 batting average 759 OPS last year, whereas in his career, 226 average against lefties, not great, but an 841 OPS against lefties. And last year, great at home was not good

on the road in the second half. Infield fly ball rate went up 7%. Hard contact dropped 13%. He was dealing with that groin injury. Are you someone who's likely to draft Gary Sanchez? His ADP is at 76.4. Are you someone who's going to be like one of the first or second people to take a catcher off the board at him?

I've been saying that I think Ray Almuto and Sanchez have great ADPs. And I am pretty sure. I was going to do the math. I ran out of time. but I am pretty sure they average the same amount of fantasy points per plate appearance, like almost identical. And that was what Gary Sanchez hitting in the two-thirties. You missed one.

So yes, I would be happy to draft them both. I agree with Scott. I'd rather take Rayamuto even though he goes earlier. But if it's two rounds earlier, I'd rather take Sanchez. If it's one round earlier, I'd rather take Rayamuto. You missed one split that I think Chris is going to find very interesting. He hit 10 home runs against Baltimore. And I don't think he hit more than three against any other team.

I believe watching Gary Sanchez, I believe he is sort of like, kind of what happened to Mark DeShera when he went to the Yankees, just got obsessed with hitting home runs. And he abuses bad pitchers. He's a very frustrating hitter. Yankees fans can't really stand him. I have no faith in him to come up big against the good pitcher. He's shown that.

He showed that in the playoffs. So I think he just needs to sort of change his approach and get back to being a better all-around hitter, but last year he just sold out for power. And that's going to limit his upside because it's going to kill his batting average. But he's always going to have a high floor, I think. I disagree with Scott a little bit.

I think he has a high floor because I expect him to lead the position in home runs, you know, at least home runs per plate appearance. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, I think relative to the position as a whole, you could say it's a high floor, but relative to other high-end catchers, I feel like it's a low floor, I guess.

He's the, well, I don't know, because I just think, think he's got so much more power, so much more home run ability than basically every catcher. Rayo is basically the only high-end catcher who has a high floor, right? No, your Gros Monde Grondal has the same batting average concerns as Gary Sanchez, though. Look, 2018, two years ago, Gary Sanchez had 186 and 89 games. Sure, but that's pretty low floor. Sure, but Yuzmani Grondal has never been a good batting average.

guy either. You know, you're looking at, like, he hit 228 in 2016. The best he's done over the last five years is 247. But he's consistent, though. He's like Chris Davis with a K. You know what you're going to get. It's going to be between 230 and 245. That's basically where he lives. He's 31. That's the knock I would have on Grundahl. But, I mean, I expect Grandaulhood for better batting average in Gary Sanchez. I just think what brings me back to Sanchez, is that if he can just become a better hitter. And God, he chases such crappy pitches. He's so frustrating.

If he could just, like, grow up a little bit, basically. But then he could honestly, he could honestly be like a second round type of player. However, however, with the way the schedule is going to be this year, I suspect catchers are going to lose value. Because the more double-headers you have, the more they have to sit. That's the way I see it.

So I think normal year, you know, he'd be very enticing. We'll have to see the way they make the schedule. I think it's going to hurt catcher in general. But I do think he has the highest ceiling of any player at the position. Like you're telling him about he's the only guy who can challenge for Hobby Lopez's record for home runs by a catcher. What is it? 43. Yeah.

Well, he obviously can't do that this year. But yes, that pace, yeah. Yes. If he were to play 120, 120. If he plays 130 games, you're right, Chris. He's probably pushing that record. Last year, 34 home runs and 106 games. Just to put a bow on this and put it in perspective,

you mentioned the ADPs. If you can get Gary Sanchez two rounds later, that's something you would be interested in doing, Adam. JT. Real Muto, 52.6 ADP, according to Fantasy Pros, Gary Sanchez, 76.4. So right around two rounds of value there. And I think if you're just talking about that specifically, yeah, why wouldn't you wait two rounds and potentially get the upside of a number one catcher?

So there you go. That's Gary Sanchez. And I mentioned we want to talk a little bit about some, you know, interesting players who are backups and, you know, why are they interesting? It's things that they can provide. It's underlying statistical things that we've noticed. And we've said recently, I think when we were talking about, Nick Senzel, Senzel, that, no, we're going to do Paddock a little bit later on, Chris.

I just responded to your chat on the air. So what I planned to do was like one deep dive, then we'll go into like some of the deeper league players, and then we'll go back to Chris Paddock and answer emails. So that's what I have here. Good meeting. But for the, for some of these players, it's, we've said it about Senzel. It was, if you hit, if you perform, you're going to get the opportunity to play. Talent wins out.

It's a little bit tougher to make that case for someone like Mike Ford, for example, because he plays on a stacked Yankees team, and they're trying to compete, and they have a ton of depth. So, you know, even if Luke Voight were to get hurt again, which is not impossible, they have Miguel Anduhar, who they can potentially use that first base. You know, they can get creative. you know, even if Stan gets hurt, who's supposed to be the DH, they can then use Anduhar, they can use Clint Frazier, they can use Mike Talkman.

Exactly. So there's just so many names there. But Mike 4 in particular is one that I did want to bring up because he just stands out in so many places for what he did last year. And looking at what he did, he hit 12 home runs in 50 games. So, I mean, just 150 game pace. That's 36 home runs. is perfectly built for Yankee Stadium, 44% fly ball rate, 44% pull rate, and he hits the ball extremely hard. So Scott, I know Mike Ford is someone that has caught your attention, but it just comes down to, you know, how can he possibly get on the field, which is the main

question. I know, and it's frustrating because he's already 27. I like Luke Voight, so I'm not exactly rooting against Luke Voight. But when you talk about all these Yankees hitters that are competing for playing time, the one who has the most impressive data is Mike Ford. I mean,

elite exit velocity, a lot of fly balls, a lot of line drives too, I think. And 17.2% strikeout rate. I mean, that's low. Like, he's a great contact hitter. 10.4, walk rate, he gets on base a ton,

actually had an on-base percentage over 400 the last two years in the miners. So he's got the best strikeout to walk ratio of any of them. And he makes the quality of contact that generally leads to huge production. Really, it doesn't even matter the environment, but particularly one that's so inviting for power hitters like this one.

I think he could be an absolute monster. He's a left-handed hitter who actually had better numbers against left-handed pitchers last year. So it's not like there's a big platoon concern there. I think it'll be sad if Mike Ford's opportunity passes him by here. But since he's already 27, it just may never happen for him. I feel like we're painting a much too optimistic picture for Mike. I'm just revealing data, Chris.

I'm not. I'm not skewing it at all. He really was much better against Ritey's in the minors. so I'm guessing that the small sample size of the majors is probably not going to hold up. And it was 50 games in the majors. Like, yeah, he put up all these elite numbers for 50 games in the majors.

And yes, he was good in AAA before that, although it was as a 26-year-old in his third stint at AAA. The year before, he was really mediocre. I mean, 108 games, 16 home runs, 759 OPS between AA and AAA. He had a 404 on base percentage, Chris. No, he didn't.

Not in 2018. Okay, sorry, I was looking at 2017. And the thing you also have to keep in mind for him is across the board, he was quite old for every level. So yeah, he had an 875 OPS in 2017. That was his 24-year-old playing most of the season in Double A. He's a 25-year-old in 2018, with 102 games of AAA and he's mediocre.

Yeah, but look at his whole minor league career. That 2018 season is the outlier. 2017, like I said, he had a 404 on base percentage. He had 94 walks to 72 strikeouts in a season that was split between AA and AAA as a 24-year-old. He wasn't even that old. 24 is, I mean, it's not old relative to all players in double,

but that's the average age of a AA player. Sure. And that's including the journeymen and the lifers and the guys and the never going to be guys. You know, the 22 at AA is not old, but it's not necessarily a situation where you look at a 22-year-old in double A and say, wow, he's really well ahead of the curve. That's pretty much where you're supposed to be. So I just, I don't know, man. Like 829 career-Mire-Mire league opium. What's the excuse for last year, though?

Like, I mean, there's no such thing as being too old for the majors. I mean, he's 26 going on 27, and he performed very well in the majors. It was 50 games, 163 played appearances. That's, like, I'm not saying it's not real, but when you talk about small sample sizes, that's a tiny sample size. But given the minor league track record and given the distribution of the production,

I just can't get over how good he was against Lepardt. I understand it was only 30. This is Mike Ford, by the way. I think we've got a long time without saying his name, so Mike Ford. of the Yankees. I understand it was only 33 of bats against lefties, but he hits seven home runs in those 33 of bats.

What kind of left-handed hitter hits double-digit home runs against left-handed pitchers, only like the most high end of them, and he was right on the verge of that. The guy facing September lefties, maybe? You know, I just, I know, like, Nando has been so high on Mike Ford, and Nando has the tendency to, like, guys. two years before they're good. So maybe Dono's gonna be right about this one.

But, but, like he did with two years. He liked him two years ago. Yeah, yes, that's what I'm saying. Yeah, exactly. The Yankees just never seemed to like him that much. So that's my hang up on Mike Ford. Yeah. Yeah, it's just, he needs like three guys to get hurt to play every day.

Well, I don't know about that. I think he needs one guy to get hurt. Because I just think it's, I just think it's Voigt. I think he needs one guy to get hurt to play. Who's their first baseman if Luke Voigt gets hurt? It would have to be LaMahue. I don't think so. I think it's going to be the Mayhew.

And then who's your second basement? You know, Glaber and then who's your shortstop? They need LaMahue at second base when last year they didn't. I think it's Ford. I think he's one player away. And he'd be interesting because guess what? He's got the same stadium if he's playing in New York or Tampa, right? Yeah.

So there's that. I've only drafted him in very deep leagues, but he's a staple of my deep league teams, Mike Ford. because it's just kind of hoping for a lot of bad things to happen, which sometimes that's sometimes those bad things happen. Hey, I like Jose Martinez. I know you had a whole list, Frank,

of players who were backups for the raise, but defense always been a problem for him, and they can de-h them if they want, and we need 300 hitters, and he's capable of doing it. That was so frustrating that he got traded to the raise because, you know,

the last three years I've basically been saying, can we just get Jose Martinez somewhere where he can be a DH? And even before last year, I thought the raise would be a great landing spot for Jose Martinez. And now they've got 40 players on their 25-man roster. And so. But now you can expand the rosters, we think. Right. But they just, they have too many guys. I agree. I think he's a good hitter. I don't think there's a ton of power. But if he got full-time played appearances, hitting 300 or 20 homers as well within the realm of possibility. That'd be a very valuable player.

It's just Tampa Bay has too many dudes. Expanding the rosters, advantage Tampa Bay. And I do want to remind people, in case you're wondering, why the heck are they talking about Mike Ford and Jose Martinez? Crazy things happen throughout the course of a baseball season. So look, you're not drafting these players outside of maybe AL only or deeper mixed roto leagues,

AL or NL only for some of the NL players that we'll talk about. But this is just a reminder, look, these are players that have underlying skill sets that can be useful for fantasy, where if things happen, where if players are underperforming, or if a player ahead of them in the depth chart gets hurt, then they do have the opportunity,

and they could be viable for fantasy based on some of these underlying skills. So I just wanted to remind people that, Jose Martinez, you guys mentioned it, Over the past three seasons, his 25.7% line drive rate is ninth among qualified hitters. His 296 batting average is tied for 15th during that span with Yulee Guriel. And Scott, Yulee Guriel is such an interesting comp for me for Jose Martinez because last year Yulee Grielle raised a launch angle and he hit a career high 31 home runs.

If Jose Martinez were given an opportunity to play with Tampa Bay, one of the smartest organizations in baseball who realized, okay, we're going to trade for Yandi Diaz and we're going to try to elevate his launch angle, and they did it. If they can do something like that with Jose Martinez,

then I'll just throw it out there. There is a chance that he can perform like someone like Yuli Gurriel. I think that's a fine comp. I just think, you know, and I understand the premises, we're kind of counting on things to break in a way.

that it isn't they're not necessarily expected to break so I get that but but let's just talk about how unlikely it is for Jose Martinez because I think it's just a situation where that could have been the case especially for the organization who make big strides with yandi diaz and abysa garcia last year in terms of raising their launch angle but there's just so much so many redundancies here on their roster where I mean, Yoshitomo, Tsutsugo, he's already not looking at regular playing time, G. Manchoi. But what did you, those two guys that you just mentioned are lefties. So Martinez, this starts, he starts out by hitting against lefties.

That's what he's in the line of every day against lefties. But then they got Manuel Margot from the Padres this offseason. They got Randy Arrows Arena, who is having a huge spring from the Cardinals. Those are both right-handed hitters. Margot can't hit. Nate Lowe, I assume, on an expanded roster. Nate Lowe's going to be on it, and that's going to be more competition. These are all guys who are going to have to compete with each other for a bat's.

And of them, the one, well, of the right-handed hitters, anyway, the one that has the most dramatic splits is Jose Martinez. And obviously he has defensive shortcomings too, probably the clearest defensive shortcomings of any of those players. So I just don't see it. I just don't see the path there. I see it actually a little clearer for Mike Ford, honestly. I think that Martinez right now has got like the story.

reputation of just being a lefty masher, not as good against righties. No, he's not. In 2018, he was actually a lot better against Ritey's. So he's just a good hitter. There's no question about that for me. I have much more confidence that he'll be an above average hitter than I do my four. Manuel Mardot is a horrible hitter. I'm just going to say that.

But he's a great defender. Yeah, but this is a DH, I'm thinking. Yeah. There's a lot of defense. And he's only 25 years old, so I don't think the book is totally written on Manmole-Margo. The problem with Jose Martinez is defense, obviously. He's also just an awful base runner, maybe the worst in baseball. Oh, he barely run the bases these days.

He really needs to hit. And, you know, he could. There was that stretch for the Cardinals that he hit well enough that he got in the line. Let's crap on someone else's suggestion then. Well, I think the most interesting players in this discussion kind of has to. to be the NL guys because there's just going to be a more clear path to playing time for all of them because teams built these rosters you know you look at this list and Tyler O'Neill and Dominic Smith are the two who jump out at me I think those guys can be very good hitters which two Tyler O'Neill and now and Dominic Smith and they might just play every day now they don't really need all that much to go right for them because the car Cardinals and Mets built their rosters with the expectation that they'd have every day position player spot, eight everyday position player spots.

Now they've got nine. That's good point. Dominic Smith is probably the ninth guy. You know, whether that's at DH or spelling P. Alonzo at first base or they played him in the outfield last season. P-E-T-E-A-L-O-N-S-O. I don't know what that is. You said spelling P-L-L-L-A-L-Lazzo.

Oh, okay. And Tyler O'Neill, that's another one who, you know, he still might win an outfield job. There's no guarantee that Dylan Carlson's up, although I think with... Even if they're both up, I mean, there's spots for both now. Dexter Fowler's in their outfield, so yeah. Yeah, even include, like, what's the Cardinals' outfield alignment right now?

I would assume it's Carlson... Tommy Edvin. Well, no. Oh, man, I'm leaving out. Harrison Bader in center. Okay. So Bader would definitely be in center. there would be O'Neill, there would be Fowler,

there would be Edmund some days, and then there would be Carlson. Like if you're assuming Edmund's super utility role, there's enough room for everybody there. And even if you want Edmund in your outfield every day, kick Fowler out, you know? There's room for all these guys. Yeah.

And so that, and then you add in the D.H. And it just, it seems like he's going to get that opportunity. And, you know, you look at what he did in, I think it was AAA in 2018. he was on something like a 50 homer 20 stolen base pace. I believe it was 2018 at AAA. There is just monstrous potential here for a guy who... There's definitely power.

There's definitely power for Tyler O'Neill. The strikeouts have gotten out of control, particularly of the past couple years. So I don't... When, you know, part of what's exciting about, at least to me, Mike Ford and Jose Martinez by comparison is just I trust I like what I see in the skills more than I do for O'Neill, but you're absolutely right. Probably all the players on this list, except maybe Nick Solac, who we may or may not talk about. O'Neill probably has the

clearest path to playing time. And the, you know, the strike cuts are a problem, but if he gets it, what he's been at at AAA is 27.1%. If Tyler O'Neill's a 27% strikeout rate in the minors, I think he's probably a must fantasy player. I don't think it's inconceivable that he can turn into like that Kyle Schwerber, friend Mel Reyes. They don't have the same type of batted ball profile, but someone who can, who's going to strike out nearly 30% of the time, who is going to hit 250 and has massive power upside.

Like I think that's all realistic for Tyler O'Neill, who over the past two seasons has a 46% hard contact rate, which ranked 11th among all outfielders with at least 250 played appearances. So he hits the ball very hard. If you've ever seen a picture of this guy, I am comfortable saying that he is like a freak, a genetic freak.

He is like chiseled from stone. He's built like Dan Ugla, right? He's, oh my God, dripped. Even Dan Ugla wasn't. Dan Ugla had a little puffiness to him. He was like fat-jacked. Tyler O'Neill is. He's like Josh Bell's dad.

Yeah, yeah. Like that. No, Tyler O'Neill is one of the biggest dudes in baseball, even though he's only 5-11. He is, he's beefy. Yeah, that's a beefy boy. He, a little bit like Derek Dietrich. Like, Derek Dietrich is jacked. Yeah, yeah, Derek, that's another, that's another hot baseball guy. You know, Chris, you brought up your two favorite National League players here that I had on the list. And the one that I actually liked the most plays for your Miami Marlins. And it's Garrett Cooper. And I think that people are kind of forgetting how good he was,

last year where he was really kind of just derailed by a terrible August. In August, he had 216 with a 581 OPS. Leading up to that, so through July 31st, he was hitting 293 with an 831 OPS, and then in September he bounced back hitting 341 with three homers. So he was really just derailed by a terrible August, and I believe he was dealing with a hamstring injury at that point. I don't know that people realize how good Garrett Cooper,

was last year. I think they're kind of sleeping on this. And he was another guy. You know, the Yankees have had a pretty good track record of just turning, you know, Luke Voitz won, Mike Ford's one, Mike Talkman, another one, turning kind of fringy guys in other people's organizations into pretty interesting hitters. And he had an absolutely monstrous 2017, hit 359, and that was kind of what put him on people's radars and then he couldn't stay healthy in 2018. I think he broke his wrist like the second week of the season

because I had him on a couple of teams. I was pretty excited about him. And so, you know, the question for me ultimately comes down to does he play every day and does he have enough power? I think the hit tool is good. I'm not sold on the power being good enough. I think if there's one person or I guess situation, let's call it a situation that can get the most power out of Garrett Cooper,

it might be what I'm about to tell you. Scott, tell me if I'm grasping at straws here, if I'm reaching too far, because I think an underrated storyline was that in the offseason, the Marlins brought in James Rousin to be their offensive coordinator. I never heard of an offensive coordinator for baseball, but that's his role. He's offensive coordinator and bench coach for the Miami Marlins. He was also the twins hitting coach last season. And from 2017 through 2019, reminder, the twins led baseball in home runs and led baseball in fly ball rate last year. So they really bought in.

And now he's with the Marlins. If there's anybody who can help raise the launch angle of Garrett Cooper, it should be this guy, no Scott. Do we really want Marlins hitters raising their launch angle? That's the first place. I think it's in Garrett Cooper's case, it's less about raising the launch angle, although he did have a 53% ground ball rate. so hitting more fly balls would be nice. He is very much a balanced and leaning opposite field hitter. And it's really hard to hit for power if you do that.

And that was the big change for the twins last season was they made a concerted effort as a team to pull the ball. Pull the ball. And so, you know, if that's something that's going to happen with the Marlins, well, it's not a great park to do it in. Well, they pull the fences in a little bit too. They move the fences in a little bit, and it's always been tougher on left-handed hitters than right-handed hitters.

That's where Marlins Park, and really going back to the, you know, Joe Robbie Stadium days, the Marlins, for some reason, just don't want lefties to thrive. They're biased against them. And so Garrett Cooper, if he can become a little bit more pull-happy, he's a big dude, hard hit rate and exit velocity are kind of average-ish, but, you know, there could be a 25 homer pace with a decent batting average there. I could see him hitting 280 and being productive.

Like a better version of Brian Anderson maybe. That's the good scenario for Cooper. But another thing I want to bring up without getting too stuck on Gary Cooper, but this leads into 20 minutes on Mike Ford. This leads into some other interesting players. I'm going through the process right now of looking at each. team and who which player prospect but not in such strict terms

they you know just player who otherwise would have begun the year in the minors stands to benefit most from expanded rosters and the marlins have I think some of the most interesting players there the one I'm going with for the column is Monty Harrison who was having a huge spring and is already 25 I think God is he really he's not young man Lewin Davis would be another one though I like Harrison 24.

Lewin Lewis. Sorry, yeah, Lu and Deez. Louis Davis. Great movie. Louis Diaz is who I meant,

who they just acquired from the twins, right? Power hitting first baseman. So they're going to have some, they're going to have to find time, I think, for some players who are probably,

they're hoping, are a bigger part of their future for Garrett Cooper. and, you know, I just don't know. I just don't know. He'll have to hit the ground running, I think, to force his way into the mix there, even with the D.H spot opening up,

I guess is what I'm getting at. Yeah, they were talking about Lew and Diaz possibly making it to the majors, and he's someone who, like you said, started to grow into his power last season after being a guy who people projected that for and who had hit for pretty decent batting averages before. Adam, the people want to hear from you.

So I'm going to give you the opportunity to choose a player on this list of interesting players from who haven't we talked about. Nick Solac, Miles Straw, Luis Rangifo, and Austin Allen. We didn't really talk about Dominic Smith much. We mentioned him. Oh, Jose Paraz is on the list, too. Of those names, who would you like to do you like to do? It's Dominic Smith. Just one thing to remember for Dominic Smith is that UNISPetist could be back healthy at some point.

Maybe when the season starts. That won't help. Same thing with Jed Lowry. But, yeah, he did put up good numbers and, you know, whatever. I think Chris covered him. Nick Solac was awesome last year. 293 batting average five home runs, one walk for every two strikeouts. Not bad for his first taste of the majors.

If I remember correctly, there were some steals in his minor league history. He had like a 20 steel season. Yeah, it was. So he's got to be the one. and I think Scott would even argue that he's not even a part-time player, Nick Solek. Yeah, there was some talk that maybe he could win the center field job, and Danny Santana would be the super utility guy. They decided already before they even, before spring training shut down,

that they weren't going to do that, that Danny Santana was a full-time centerfielder, which would leave Solek to play a super utility role. But that means a lot of it bat still. I think he's their preferred choice to... So, but who's going to have a better year at the plate? Danny Santana or Nick Solac? Because I just don't believe in Danny Santana. I...

Yeah. No, I don't have a lot of faith in Danny Santana either. He does hit the ball hard. I think there's a chance he just lives up to it. And, you know, he's more proven, I guess, you'd have to say, than Solac at this point. But there is a lot I like about Solac. I don't even consider him so much a deep sleeper.

He's just a sleeper. a sleeper. I try to any rota league with the bench probably. I'm making a play for Nick Solac. It hurts that he's DH only right now, but I don't expect that to be a long-term issue. There are some questions about whether he elevates the ball enough to sustain

even close to the power production he had last year. It was 32 home runs between the majors and minors, but of course that was at the juiced ball inflated PCL. Only 10 of those 32 home runs came there, But still, it was part of the huge season he had. He did hit 19 home runs two years ago at AA.

So it's not like last year was his only demonstration of power. I mean, 19 home runs from a minor league hitter. It's pretty good. And that was a 19 home or 21 steel season. Mostly, I like the bat skills. I like the on-base skills for Nick Solac. And a guy who does those two things in this environment, you can have hope that he grows into power,

just because it's so easy to cultivate at the major league level at this point. And he's already demonstrated it to a degree. So I think I definitely could see a scenario here where things go very well for Nick Solek. And he ends up... He's probably better than Rognette O'Dore. He's probably better than Rognette O'Dore. If he's...

Whoa, whoa, guys. If he's good, he'll play. They've got spots for him. Yeah. So Lack forever. I think what might be most realistic for Solok. is moving Todd Frazier across the diamond, playing him at first base,

and playing Solac at third base, which I think is a possibility. I don't know that he's ever played third base, but I would imagine... He played some last year. He played some last year. Yeah, like they'll find a way to get him in. I think that they want as bad in there,

and, you know, they were trying them out in left field once Willie Calhoun suffered the fractured jaw, but with the season being delayed, it seems like Willie Calhoun is going to be good to go whenever we start up. So I think the most realistic shot, we move Todd Frazier, across we, like we're the, you know,

the manager of the Rangers. You're the hitting coach. We move him to first base. Ronald Guzman kind of becomes that, you know, bench bat for them. And then they have Nick Select at third. So that's ultimately what I'm hoping for. Let's get some everyday at bats for Nick Select, man.

That would be great. I do have some other names, but you can find those over at CBSports.com. There's going to be an article coming out over the weekend here that I wrote regarding some of these other names on this list who are backups. just pay attention to the numbers that they have put up, and if anything were to happen to the players ahead of them,

that they can have an opportunity to compete and make some noise for fantasy baseball. But I did want to deep dive Chris Paddock. We spoke about Gary Sanchez earlier in the show, and Adam, you mentioned Chris Paddock the other day, and you said it all comes down to the curveball for him, and I agree with you. I think if he can continue to improve on that third pitch, he throws mid-90s with the fastball.

He's got something called a Vulcan change-up. I've never heard of a Vulcan change-up before Chris Paddock. It is a phenomenal change-up. It's great. It's like a split change that you hold between your ring and middle finger. It's ridiculous. It's a great change-up. He has two pitches.

He needs to continue developing the curveball. Adam, if the curveball is just adequate, I feel, in 2020, then we could be looking at a top-10 season out of Chris Paddock. I agree. I think that he could be the next Walker Bueller, the next Jack Flaherty, the next true ace in fantasy baseball and in baseball for years to come. His minor league numbers are ridiculous. I do think his curveball is going to end up being a pretty good pitch.

I like the fact that he's ridiculously cocky. If you remember that series against the Mets, so he was so pumped to go against Bia Lazzal. I love it. And I just don't really know what the beef is here. You know, he had a 333 ERA over a strikeout running. 31 walks in 140 and 2 thursday. He had a great, great rookie season,

and I almost feel like people are looking for reasons not to like Chris Paddock, when you just need to like relax, breathe it in and be like, yeah, Chris Paddock's going to be awesome. I mean, he's like a top 55 pick, right? On average? Probably. The ADP right now for Chris Paddock is 51.6.

Yeah, I don't think there's that many people looking for reasons not to drive. I don't feel the enthusiasm. Maybe it's Scott. Maybe it's Scott's fault. The peripherals aren't great. The FIP especially is higher than you would think. I think it's just really, like, I don't even know if it's a deep dive. I really think it is just that he's got two excellent pitches, including one that is, you know,

it rivals Luis Castillo's for the best change up in baseball and one of the best pitches in baseball. the problem is just he doesn't have that third pitch. He started trying to use a different grip on his curveball last season. He was working on that over the offseason as well. So that just right there tells you that that pitch is legitimately a work in progress, which is surprising for a 24-year-old, although his minor league track record didn't include much work because of Tommy John surgery. And that hurts too, because part of the problem with just a two-pitch arsenal is how predictable do you become?

And we haven't seen him at any level for very long. Like, nobody had a chance to get used to Chris Paddock. And so, Adam, you're saying you feel like people are trying to find reasons to not like Chris Paddock. I mean, that's kind of, you know, you could point to me for doing that because among the ace class or not, near-aise class, he's actually pointing to me now, of starting pitchers, that's kind of the process. You look for downsides. You look for how things could go wrong. And to me, there are clearer signs of that for Chris Paddock than the most in the other. The two biggest ones being limited arsenal, so how predictable does he become over time? And two, he's among the most fly ball prone of those class

of starting pitchers at a time in baseball where fly balls are especially dangerous. And you see it reflected in the FIP and the XFIP the X-FIP was over four. You know, I could just see him taking a step back when the broad presumption seems to be that he's going to take a step. So, yeah. What's interesting. Okay, go ahead, Chris. Sorry.

What's interesting is he was actually really, really good the third time he faced batters. 558 OPS allowed, 4 to 1 strike out to walk ratio, which is the opposite of what you would expect with a guy with a short. Arsenal, but I think there's partially a survivorship bias at play in that kind of thing, where he saw batters the third time in a game almost exclusively when he was really rolling. So I don't know how much to take out of that, especially because it's only 106 play to So what I wanted to say was, yeah, the downside to not having that third pitch is in two great examples, Luis Castillo and Luis Severino.

and I think both of them in their second years took a step back and both of them had home run issues as I recall but then they but Severino developed the third pitch and became I still think one of the best pitchers in baseball Castillo hopefully can can do the same but Paddock when you look at his home road splits and his fly ball tendencies he gave up 23 home runs and 16 of them or 17 of them

16 of them came on the road. So maybe his home ballpark gives, I don't know if he's going to play in his home ballpark this year, but just generally speaking, that's the thing. Maybe his home ballpark gives him a crutch that Severino didn't have, you know? I do think the Severino and Castillo comparisons are worth diving into a little bit because of those two guys,

Severino is the one who jumped up and became a legitimate ace while Luis Castillo, even when he was very good last season, you know, 14th among starting pitchers in both Roto and points, I believe, super inconsistent. Had stretches of absolute dominance, had a stretch towards the end of the season where he was really bad. And the thing that gives Luis Siverino an edge is, you know, you look at the pitch arsenals that they have. Louis Severino's big fastball, great slider.

And so it was about developing that third pitch, the change-up, to keep lefties off balance. But you're going to face more righties than you are lefties. So if you're a fastball slider guy, that gives you an edge over a fastball changeup guy because the changeup is that pitch that you would typically use to neutralize opposite-handed hitters. So you're not going to have that case where, like Louis Severino,

you may not be super dominant against right-handed or against same-handed batters the way you would typically expect. Yeah. So Castillo and Paddock both being the fastball change of guys. So there's the clearer connection there. Yeah, and Paddock's fastball is good. It's not Luis Castillo's or Luis Severino's in terms of velocity or so. How many guys, I would love to know 23-year-olds who threw, you know, 100 something, threw 140,

had a sub one whip. How many 23-year-olds have done that? It's amazing. And then there's this additional piece of data. that I don't know how to reconcile yet. I haven't looked at it closely enough, and I'm not even sure looking at it closely is going to tell me that much yet.

But, okay, we cite the FIPP, we cite the X-FIP for how Chris Paddix ERA could go wrong. What about this new XERA stat that Statcast has just introduced that shows him top 10 in all of baseball last year at 328? That's much better than 406 or whatever the X-FIP is. How do you factor that in? I don't know yet, but it's, it's, it's stupid.

It gives a, it gives a different stance on Tadick than what the other ones. Two years will have a new stat. Just like, just the forget the FIP, the guy was a bull in the minors. 182 ERA, 0.8 whip, 230 strikeouts in 100,000 to 20 walks in 177 and 2 thirds. And then he goes up and has a good rookie year. I just think it's obvious. he's really good. Ultimately, let me ask you this, Adam, since you seem the most enthusiastic.

He was my player I loved, as we all remember. And you pointed out the home away splits. If they are in Arizona, that ridiculous hitting environment, I put him as one of the ten biggest losers in all of baseball, if that happens, because... Yeah, I agree. I mean, just looking at the home away splits with the home runs, it'll be a problem. I agree. I mean, I don't think he can reach his full potential this year if he's playing in a huge hitter's environment. And I mean, I feel like, I feel like they're very very very very.

few pitchers who wouldn't lose. You have to be a true stud. And he's not quite there yet. I mean, he might be, but I don't think he is. So, yeah, it would be, it would be bad. I'm more doing this argument, how I think he is, in terms of skill, in terms of what we could normally expect. Everything changes.

We'll do all the position reviews again when we find out where everyone's playing. There's a German phrase, der narcissisma, der Kleinen, Differenzis. The narcissism of small differences. I have that tattoo on my arm. Yeah. My lower back, actually. That's what you're dealing with when it comes to discussions about pitchers at this level is, like Scott said, at the top of the Chris Paddock discussion.

Ultimately, you're trying to find these minute razor-thin margins where one guy falls short and another guy succeeds. And that can be all the difference between a good thing. pitcher and an ace. And, you know, that's ultimately, I think the thing with Chris Paddock is he's not necessarily a slam dunk ace yet. We all see the potential for it. But if you're if you're asking why someone might not have him ranked as an ace, well, that's that's why. Although I do want to point out Luis Castillo has been better against righties and lefties, so I don't know what I'm talking about. The last thing I'll add on Chris Paddock, and I think this is what Adam is. saying when he's like, just throw the FIP and the X-FIP

out the window, is that we don't necessarily have a stat that quantifies just knowing how to pitch. And Chris Paddock is one of those guys who even at 23 years old last year, you watch him pitch on the mound, he has the demeanor, he knows how to pitch, he mixes

in and out to hitters, he goes up and down, he just understands how to pitch. And we don't necessarily have a stat or at least I don't know about it, that tells us that someone knows how to pitch because sometimes we hear, you know, someone is a thrower. They're not a pitcher yet and they're still kind of learning the process of being a pitcher. Chris Paddock is a pitcher. So take that for what it's... I don't know. We've spent like the last

20 years since defense independence pitching stats were a thing trying to identify which guys are the outliers who will continuously outperform the peripherals and we basically fail every time. You can argue like, oh, well, he gets more pop-ups and you know, you have a Marco Estreform. type and you know Chris Paddock sort of has a similar it's a weird comp but he does sort of have a similar approach to Marco Estrada he you know he's a he's an overhand pitcher rather than a three quarters delivery it's a lot of high fastballs low changeups but the stats keep changing so maybe he can run the stats keep changing the ones where they were supposed to use keep changing but scotch just cited one that has him as a top 10 pitcher sure but phip like still

gets nobody uses fipp it's always Sierra now an ex-fitt. Right, right, no, no. That's the thing is that there's a lot of stats and they've gotten marginally better and there's like DRA, D-E-R-A from baseball perspective, and there's Sierra and now this X-E-R-A, which is brand new and I don't know how predictable it is, but I just, the basics still get you most of the way there. And so I still, I think it was like 3-7, 3-8.

The funny thing is, if you just take his FIP instead of his ERA and still give him his whip, his strikeout rate, I'm still going to be basically just as enthused about Chris paddock he still would have had an awesome rookie season right the the whip is obviously heavily influenced by the unsustainably unsustainably low bad too good to be true but still projects to be a good whip guy because his control is so good like he's really good yeah i want to answer a few questions to your fantasy baseball at cbsi dot com and true story i asked adam either last night earlier today uh if he can share the regulators torch because we for the first time received a regulator's question here since I've been hosting the show.

So Adam, will you virtually pass me the regulators torch? It would be my honor to deny you that honor. I have changed my mind. You do not get the regulators. Okay. Play it. Okay. Play it.

Okay. Play that tune. There it is. Oh, sweet sounds. Who does the grunt at this point, though? I'll still do. I missed it. Yeah.

I missed my cue. I couldn't hear it that well. Well, the torch has been officially passed then. You ud. Good job. This one's from JP in Queens, New York. Shout out to JP. Who knows?

He might live next door for all I know. My league drafted two days ago. Two days before the, not two days ago, two days before the supposed season was about to start. So we all knew there was a delay. We voted whether or not we should delay the draft, and it was 11 to 1 in favor of drafting. Me being the lone no.

So no one does. So as one does, I can't read, I sucked it up and started to prepare. I wasn't only doing player evaluations like usual, but planning, expecting a shortened season at which players would benefit. So I ended up with a pretty good team. I got Hermann Marquez late, avoided some Rockies hitters. I got Jesus Lazzardo. All in all, the league wants to now vote to redo the draft. So this guy originally was on the other side.

He didn't want to draft early. He wound up with an amazing team. And now he doesn't want to redraft, and the rest of the league is putting it up for vote, and they want to redraft. J.P., you played this beautifully. You are a genius. If you do live next door to Frank,

you probably still won't be able to see each other for another month or so, but that's a shame. But you guys should hang out because you're two brilliant fantasy minds. No way is this league drafting again. When everyone except you voted to draft, you took advantage of it.

You are the man. and I will not allow it. If they, we will kick them out of fantasy baseball forever if they redraft. Well, I mean, yeah, the fact that, the fact that they already decided to do this, when they knew the season was delayed and they knew there would be some kind of impact from that, that they couldn't quite predict at that moment. And they still voted to go through with it. I mean, that's on all of them.

It's different when you had your draft before we knew it was coming and that the season was going to be delayed in that way. and I could understand that more. But the one thing I do want to call BS on is two days before the intended start of the season. So what would have that been? March 24th. Yes.

Like, nobody was talking about teams opening the season at their spring training sites. Why were you consciously avoiding Rocky Setters? There was no reason for that yet. I dispute that you were doing that intention. He's a visionary. I dispute that you were doing that intention. Wow.

You know, most of us like to be kind and generous to our listeners. But I guess Scott doesn't want to be a part of that. Do you really like to be that, Chris? I think the evidence would show otherwise. No, I mean, next question. Let's get to the next question. You should absolutely kick those guys out of their league. Just leave the league if they don't, if they try to retrap because you guys, you did a phenomenal job. I'm fine with reaffing it. For Matthew, hello, Malcolm Dup. Louis, Francis, and Reese. There's no way of Frank

seen that show. I have no idea what this is. He kind of looks like he's part of that family. You could be one of them. This is Malcolm in the middle. What is it? This is Malcolm in the middle? Oh, you mean that other show, Brian Cranston?

Yeah, Brian Cranston before Breaking Bad. Yeah. Longtime listener, first time emailer, 12 team head-to-head categories league. Redraft. My starting pitchers are solid. Garrett Cole, Zach Granky, Lucas Gialito, Matthew Boyd,

and Madbum. I would say a little bit better than solid. I have three bench spots I'd like to fill with starting pitchers. Pick three of these guys. Josh James. Adrian Houser. Jose Urquite. Cole Hamels. Brendan McKay. Ross Stripling. Friend of the show. Dylan Sees. Nate Pearson. Ryan Yarbrough. Alex Wood. Rich Hill would be my first pick. It's going to depend, but I want to say Nate Pearson. I just think the upside is so considerable. The talent is so considerable.

Maybe I'm getting too hyped about the couple of spring training appearances that he had. But I wouldn't want to let that kind of potential go away. And then... Have you turned on Josh James here, Chris? No, I'm not... Whoa, look. Look, that doesn't mean I'm turning on him. So you're picking him then, right?

Josh James has similar problems to Dylan Cease. I think the talent level is similar. so you go ahead and flip a coin on those two guys. Well, we haven't seen C strikeout 15 batters per nine innings in the majors yet. No, but we haven't seen him walk. We haven't seen him walk seven per nine or whatever. It was like James did last year. And we've seen James Minor League numbers be just as ridiculous.

So I think, and he pitches for the Astros instead of the white sucks. James was actually going to be my first choice. I like Rikiti. Yeah, it's Houser, Orkidi, James. James, Wood, Hill, Pearson. Between those six for me, I'm actually leaving cease out of it. I just don't think Houser or Katie have the upside, those guys do. That doesn't mean that they...

Remember it pick, though. You know, I mean... It's a head-to-head categories league, so, I mean, I'm leaning towards who's the best on a per-enning basis. You know, not necessarily who's going to, you know, go deep into games or, you know, accumulate numbers. It's just, you know, who's going to be... Who's going to give you the best rate stats on a per-star basis? I would have to imagine Rich Hill is up there. Yeah, and Pearson would be up there.

Yeah. Alex Wood might be third if you're doing strictly rates. I mean, I'm skeptical he's going to go five innings with much consistency, but that's my biggest concern. Everybody pick three. All right. I'm going James. I'm going Pearson. I'm going.

I'm going. Erkiti. I'm going. Really? Erkitty over him. I'm going old here. I'm going to Rikidi, Hamels Hill. Actually, Hamils is such a whip killer. Erkiti Hill, Josh James.

Actually, I'm going Hill Pearson Wood. Does everybody taking notes? All right, I'm going to go Rich Hill, Alex Wood, and Nate Pearson. So I feel like there's a lot of Rich Hill on that list. But I hope we helped you, Matthew. First time. I just want to say something real quick. Malcolm in the middle is one of those interesting shows

where the main character is also the least interesting character. The mom was the best character on the show. I think Brian Cranston. I like TAL. I like Dewey. Yeah, Malcolm was the worst. And I think Brooklyn Nine-N-N-N-N-al also fits that description.

I think everybody's better than it. And I like Andy Sandberg, but like all the characters are better. He's very funny in that show. The Backstreet Boys Cold Open is one of the funniest things I've ever seen. That's great. Amy Sandberg is pretty good, though. He is, but actually, Amy's my least favorite. It.

You know who's the worst character on Brooklyn 9-9 is? Who is it? Terry Cruz. No, I love Terry. I agree with that. Oh, come on. I think Terry and Rosa are at the bottom of the list for me. I don't like Rosa's character development.

I liked Rosa at the start. Rosa's great. They just seem to kind of run out of, I don't know. The character one. Okay, everybody on three, on three, name the best character on Brooklyn Nine-Nine. Ready? One, two, three, Holtz. Captain Holtz.

Captain Holtz. Step past. I didn't even need to get the three. There's no other hands. That'll do it. We're wrap it up here. Fantasy baseball today. Everyone, have a great weekend.

Thank you for listening. We will talk to you again on Monday. Bye-bye. It's going to be May.