Fantasy Baseball Today - Jacob deGrom Injury, Mid-Round Draft Targets & Players We're Scared to Draft (4/1 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: April 1, 2022

We wish this was an April Fool's Day joke but Jacob deGrom is dealing with a shoulder injury (3:25). What happens now? ... On to draft targets! We all love Charlie Morton in the sixth round (8:24). ...... Scott likes Frankie Montas while Frank has a pair of outfielders he likes in the seventh round (11:16). ... Can Bryan Reynolds repeat his 2021 season (19:45)? ... What is Kyle Schwarber's upside (23:56)? ... Why is Frank optimistic on Willson Contreras (29:00)? ... News and notes (33:49): well, Jordan Romano is the leading candidate for dumbest baseball injury. ... What did we think of Blake Snell's spring debut (44:08)? ... Which players are we scared to draft (44:08)? ... Which players have we changed our stance on throughout spring training (1:00:13)? 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on April 1st. Frank Stamph will join by Scott White, and we have a ton to get to today on the podcast. Favorite draft targets in round six through 10. Players we're scared of, players we've changed our stance on, and I have some of those awesome submissions we received for our head to head points listener league. I've got three songs and a poem that I will reveal sporadically
Starting point is 00:01:02 throughout today's podcast. But first. A little sprinkle. April showers. A little sprinkle. Little salt bay. Were you big on salt bay, Scott? Do you know what that is?
Starting point is 00:01:11 No. What is that? Salt Bay? Is it just like salt? Does Google Salt Bay? It's like a famous meme gif of a, what is he? I guess he's a chef and he's just like sprinkling salt on his meat very like flamboyantly. It's awesome.
Starting point is 00:01:30 I've seen this jiff. Yeah. That's great. Okay. Anyway, we're recording this on Thursday night, which is actually, Scott's birthday. Happy birthday, bud. Yes.
Starting point is 00:01:40 Well, you just said it was April 1st at the top of the show. We're recording it on March 31st. I don't want to think, I want anybody thinking I was an April Fool's baby and maybe I wasn't really born or something. But, yeah, March 31st. That's the day. It's always kind of funny how often the season begins on March 31st. And originally it was scheduled to this year as well.
Starting point is 00:02:04 True. The lockout pushed it back a week. But, you know, you'd think, okay, maybe once every seven years, it starts on March 31st. But the way they've bounced between it's starting on a Sunday and it's starting on a Thursday over the years, it just very often seems to fall on March 31st. So that's kind of fun. That's not a bad birthday gift at all. Speaking of which, did you get any cool presents, Scott, or celebrate maybe a big dinner or something?
Starting point is 00:02:28 No, no. It was a pretty normal day. We'll do a little something. I'll do a little something with the family this weekend. but it's the other thing about being having a birthday in late March as a fantasy baseball writer is it's your busiest time of year. Also true. You really don't have the bandwidth to think about your birthday. So, yeah, that's nothing today.
Starting point is 00:02:51 All right. Well, get to it for sure. Enjoy yourself, Scott. Have a nice weekend here. Enjoy that birthday. And for those drafting this weekend, if you need just a crash course in fantasy baseball, say that you didn't listen to anything this offseason. and today's the first podcast you're listening to.
Starting point is 00:03:06 I hope that's not the case, but just in case that is, I would say listen to three pods that we did this week. Sleepers breakouts and bus 3.0 on Monday. We did our early round draft targets on Wednesday, and then of course listen to today's podcast because we're going to get to all the things that I mentioned earlier. And one of those is players that were scared of. And I was going to save that for later on, Scott.
Starting point is 00:03:26 But we just have to start right there with Prime Suspect Number One, Jacob de Grom. And I wish this was in April Fool's, joke, maybe there's still a chance that it is, just some kind of cruel joke, I wish it was, but we just got the unfortunate news that DeGrom felt some tightness in the back of his right
Starting point is 00:03:43 shoulder Thursday while playing catch. And, you know, we were talking beforehand, Scott, it's not necessarily doom and gloom yet, but this is the very last thing that we wanted to see when it came to Jacob deGrom. He's looked fantastic so far in the spring, but we have
Starting point is 00:03:59 to be realistic with ourselves. Over the past two seasons, he's missed time due to neck, lat, back, shoulder, forearm, and elbow issues last year, he was shut down with UCL inflammation. So this is major. What's your immediate reaction? If you're drafting this weekend, when do you draft a gram? I know it's a loaded question, but what do you think, Scott? I probably don't, to be honest, like it'd have to be a severe discount. Like you were, you were saying you have a big draft coming up, a 15 teamer. You're saying, I'm not going to drop Jacob de Grom. What if he's there in round six? I mean, you don't know how everybody else is
Starting point is 00:04:37 going to react to this news either is the thing. And it might be not a big deal. Like, that's the thing. We don't have enough information yet to know. Like, I feel like any take you have on Jacob de Grom right now is liable to be an overreaction or an underreaction. And I mean, by the time people are listening to this, maybe more is going to be known. Right? Right now, we just know he has soreness in the back of his shoulder. What makes it a little scarier is that additional testing is, they're seeking additional testing. So they're not playing it up like a major injury right now.
Starting point is 00:05:12 In fact, I saw one reporter use it as precautionary. But if he's going in for additional testing, then, I mean, there's the potential they discover more in there. I think I would, like,
Starting point is 00:05:24 as for how I'm going to adjust my rankings, I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I was always, I'm always risk averse with early round picks, right? And before spring training started, before we saw him throwing, before he was named the opening day starter, I was thinking, okay, I ranked agrom like a late second rounder,
Starting point is 00:05:45 but I really don't want to be the one to take him there. And I never strongly considered it. He usually went somewhere in that vicinity, and I was happy to let him go to someone else. But then recently I came to the point where, okay, maybe I could draft Jacob deGrom. I haven't yet, but I was starting to get a little less fearful of it. So I think I'm back where I started, but even a little more so.
Starting point is 00:06:09 So round three, I'm probably passing them up, too, based on what we know now, round four, I may have to take the plunge, you know? It kind of depends how deep the league is. The shallower the league, the more you can justify gambling on DeGrom. I think that makes sense. So let's just say in your rankings around like just behind Nola and Gialito Does that sound right?
Starting point is 00:06:36 Maybe SP 14 ahead of Charlie Morton Yeah that probably sounds right I don't know that I'm going to adjust my rankings Because I don't I always hate the idea of Adjusting somebody one day Only to move them right back the next day You know
Starting point is 00:06:51 But if I had to draft Right this second That's probably the brain where I'd be willing to take DeGrom. Okay. And I was thinking even lower than that. And again, like, we're reacting to this on the fly. We can wake up tomorrow morning, Friday morning,
Starting point is 00:07:06 and they might say, all right, MRI came back clean. He's not going to start. But, you know, we'll see how he feels in a couple of days. We'll schedule, like, a bullpen session, and we'll see how his body reacts to that. And, you know, I mean, that still kind of leaves some uncertainty, but I think that would probably be the best news at this point for Jacob DeGrom. So I was looking at, like, the last thing.
Starting point is 00:07:27 Logan Webb, Freddie Peralta, Joe Musgrove range. Like, if I'm doing a draft right now, that's probably around where I say, okay, the risk is worth the reward here. Because the risk could be, you know, he's opening the season on the IL. We just don't know right now. So that might be round six.
Starting point is 00:07:44 Yeah, it legitimately might. So, yeah, I'm a little bit more, I've been scared about him the whole time. Like, again, the segment we had, players were scared of. He was going to be my number one player. I have not drafted him at all. even with how good he's looked in the spring.
Starting point is 00:07:58 You know, I've felt more optimistic, and I've expressed that on the podcast, but I still have not drafted him anywhere. I've done a lot of drafts since I've seen him pitching in spring, and I never feel the need to draft him. To me, there was just always too much risk, and now there's even more.
Starting point is 00:08:14 So, yeah, Jacob de Grom, he's going to have to last pretty long for me to draft him this weekend, knowing what we know right now. Hopefully the news comes back a little bit better on him. Let's jump into our favorite draft targets here, Scott, and we did this the other day. We did rounds one through five.
Starting point is 00:08:28 Again, you can go back and listen to that or watch it on demand. But we're going to start here with rounds six through 10. So in round six, we're looking at picks 61 through 72. Scott, I feel like we have the same name here, right? The guy that we're always targeting in round six, it's like, who's going to get to him first? I presume you're talking about Charlie Morton? That's right. Okay.
Starting point is 00:08:52 Yeah. Yep. That's the one. Yeah, and his ADP's been rising. I updated my sleepers column, added a few names, Sleepers 3.0 a couple days ago, added a few names reworked, some of the names that were already there. And I noticed my previous edition of Sleepers had Charlie Morton
Starting point is 00:09:14 going about 20 spots later on average than he's going now. So his ADP of 71, I imagine in more recent, like over the last week or whatever, it's even higher than that to have corrected that much in the overall ADP. So I took him in round four in the podcast listeners league last night.
Starting point is 00:09:37 Now that's a head-to-head points league and these are for ADP and obviously high-end pitchers go earlier and head-to-head points on average. But I don't think you can realistically expect it to get him in this range anymore if he's a priority for you. I think maybe round five of a 12-team league
Starting point is 00:09:53 even five by five scoring, we're talking here, roto leagues, et cetera. That's probably when you're going to have to make a play for Charlie Morton. But of course, you've got to consider who else is on the board. I've always had him ranked ahead of Kevin Gosman and Lance Lynn. I've always had him 14th in my SP rankings. So before I would do things like take Gosman ahead of him because I knew I could get Morton a round or two later,
Starting point is 00:10:18 even though I ranked more than ahead of Gosman. And now it's just like, I just take Morton where I rank. him. Yeah, and I think partially he's on the rise, Scott, because he looked good in his first spring start. He basically looked mid-season form. They let him go four and two-thirds. He didn't allow a hit, five strikeouts to one walk. So that's what we needed to see. He's coming back from the fractured fibula, which he suffered in the World Series. So there was, you know, a small sliver of doubt in the back of my mind where, you know, I wanted to see how does he look. You know, he's an older pitcher coming back from an injury. So, you know, he passed that test. He's on the rise. So
Starting point is 00:10:52 if you want to secure that you get Charlie Morton, you might have to do it in the fifth round. But yeah, as we've said all off-season, he's basically just undervalued because he's old. Over the past four years, since the start of 2017, I guess that's five years. 3.34 ERA, 1.13 whip,
Starting point is 00:11:10 862 strikeouts over 732 innings pitched. Charlie Morton is awesome. Let's move into the seventh round. This is picks, these are picks, 73 through 84. Who is your target here in round seven? My target in that range is probably Frankie Montas is the one of this group
Starting point is 00:11:32 I end up drafting the most. And I have him as a breakout pick for this year mostly because I'm looking at the full season numbers compared to the numbers over his final 15 starts and saying, well, what if he can take what he did in his final 15? starts and do something close to that over a full season.
Starting point is 00:11:55 The full season numbers are great. The full season numbers justify the ADP for Frankie Montas, but it was really two different seasons for him. In those final 15 starts, he had a 2-11 ERA, a 102 whip, 10.8K per 9, and his 15.9% swinging strike rate during that 15-start stretch was what Max Schurzer had for the full season. It was elite.
Starting point is 00:12:19 And what changed, other than the numbers themselves, where he went from using that splitter that keyed his breakthrough in 2019. He went from making it his third or fourth most used pitch to making it his most used pitch. And he was just unbelievable for that half of the season. So I tend to prefer him among that group of pitchers
Starting point is 00:12:42 that includes like Logan Webb and Jose Berrios because I feel like there's another gear there for Montas. that we saw in the second half last year maybe it could carry over. But there is, you know, he is, I do feel like he's also the riskiest of the three because the splitter is a difficult pitch to maintain a feel for,
Starting point is 00:13:08 and it could just be that he was really feeling it during those 15 starts, and that's why I was able to use it so much. And he, you know, it might come and go for him. Like, he might be streaky. since he's so reliant on that one pitch, in which case, you know,
Starting point is 00:13:27 maybe he has a really poor first half and we're tempted to drop him. That could happen. Yeah, I think it happened a lot last year, Scott. I'm looking at he gave up eight earned runs to the Texas Rangers on June 21st. And I think a lot of people probably dropped him around that time,
Starting point is 00:13:43 and it was right after that where he turned it on. You saw the final 15 starts. The start right after that, Final 17 starts, 2.24 ERA 104 Whip. So he turned it on right after that. So he's kind of one of these pitchers you need to just stick with. It could be frustrating at times, but he flashed what his upside was,
Starting point is 00:14:03 what his upside is in that second half. We just needed to see him do it more consistently. Scott, do you worry at all about him pitching for the Oakland A's and, you know, wins being very hard to come by? Yeah, a little. That Oakland lineup looks horrible. So bad. Awful.
Starting point is 00:14:18 Stream all of your pitchers against the Oakland A's this year. I think even more than the Pirates and the Marlins, Scott, I think the Oakland A's are like the top team to stream against. Yeah, that line, I mean, we should give some examples, right, of just how bad it is. It looks like the worst lineup at baseball. They have... Actually, the Pirates is pretty bad.
Starting point is 00:14:38 Well, the Pirates at least have Brian Reynolds. Maybe not for a long. Did you see the rumors on Thursday? Yeah, but... Oh, geez. Yeah, I don't think there's much to those rumors. But I think it's much more likely Frankie Montas gets traded out of the situation in Oakland than that Brian Reynolds gets traded. But anyway, yeah, who's the best hitter in the A's lineup?
Starting point is 00:15:00 It might be Tony Kemp. Sean Murphy? Brown. I don't know. Sean Murphy, yeah. I mean, he's the biggest name for fantasy, but that's because he's a catcher. Yeah, so here's the lineup projected by Ross or resource. Tony Kemp, Elvis Andrews, Sean Murphy, Seth Brown.
Starting point is 00:15:18 Lowry, Stephen Piscotti, Eric Thames, Kevin Smith, Christian Pache. That's bad. Not great, Bob. That is bad. Yes. Now, like, the A's, the A's always seem to pull these players out of their hat, you know? Like, they've gone through these really short rebuilds before, and they just come up with these, like, like, Mark Kanna appeared during one of those stretches. Mark Kana, this, like, Marlins cast off. turned into a pretty good fantasy option. So, you know, it wouldn't surprise me if it ends up being better than it looks right now, but it looks awful right now.
Starting point is 00:15:59 So, yeah, that does worry me a little bit for Montas, but the hope is he gets traded sooner than later. And it does, I heard at one point they were shopping him harder than they were Sean Minia. I'm quite surprised that both of those guys are on the team. It's very interesting to me that the Yankees haven't made a play for either one. They could definitely use. I know the royals have been linked to them. The Minnesota twins were linked to them,
Starting point is 00:16:24 but the twins signed Chris Archer the other day to a one-year deal. So we'll see. Obviously, it would be a much better opportunity for wins if Mania or Montas landed on either of those teams. In round seven for me, I'm with Chris on Cotel Marte. I believe we're all on Cotel-Marte.
Starting point is 00:16:40 Since the start of 2019, he has a 318 batting average, 9-17 OPS, and a 25 home-run pace over 150 games. He's got to stay on the field. He's had issues with health, but when he plays, he's awesome. Statcast loves Cotel Marte as well.
Starting point is 00:16:57 82nd percentile in average exit velocity last year. 86th percentile in hard hit rate. 98th percentile and expected batting average. 307 XBA. That is just a fantastic mark for Cotell Marte. I wanted to mention one other other name here too, Scott.
Starting point is 00:17:12 J.D. Martinez. Last year, I know he was awesome in April, and then he was just kind of pedestrian in the final five months. But if you look at his season as a whole, 286, 28 homers, 92 runs, 99 RBI, 41st overall player in Roto, and he averaged 3.2 fantasy points per game.
Starting point is 00:17:31 Now the ADP is, you know, he's going around pick 80, and he was the 41st player in Roto last year. So I think he's another one. It's being undervalued because of his age. Ketel Marte, J.D. Martinez, do you find yourself drafting either or both? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:17:47 Yeah, I find my self-drafting a decent amount of both. Neither is a priority. I like a tell Marte probably more in a general sense than I do J.D. Martinez. But, you know, it just depends if the timing is right to take them. Neither one of them. A lot of times J.D. Martinez does slide even beyond his ADP. And so he ends up being the last in a group of outfielders that includes Schwerber and Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Eilich, Brian Reynolds.
Starting point is 00:18:17 JD Martinez sticks around the longest or the group chances are I'm taking him but they're not like intention he's not an intentional target of mine. All right, fair enough. Let's get to one of those listener league submissions. This is all the home runs.
Starting point is 00:18:33 This is a song from Garrett Hoff and it was sung to the tune of all the small things by Blink 182. Take it away. I really like the home runs. I really like the yow there at the end. That was,
Starting point is 00:19:32 Yeah. So awesome submission there from our buddy, Garrett Hoff. Again, he was in the listener league draft that we did yesterday here on the live stream. So I've got a few more songs coming your way throughout the rest of today's podcast. Eighth round target, Scott, let's hit it here. Pick 85 through 96. Who is someone you find yourself drafting here? Probably Brian Reynolds the most.
Starting point is 00:19:54 I think I'm higher on Brian Reynolds than the consensus. I think he's an amazing hitter. If he comes up short in anything, it's home runs. He had 24 of those last year, and I'm not sure how realistic a 30-homer outcome is for him. He'll probably be in the low 20s again, but I think a very safe source for batting average. He managed, I think about 190 combined runs in RBI,
Starting point is 00:20:20 even in that bad pirates lineup. It wouldn't surprise me if he stole more bases. He's actually much faster than his steals total would have you believe, but, you know, obviously you can't count on that. I just think he's a very stable, productive outfielder who, if you tend to go light on outfield like I do, it's nice to get a player like that in your number one outfield spot and know you can bank on him for the whole season even if you're, even if you're going to have to kind of scrap it together otherwise. I'm pretty sure that's exactly what you did in yesterday's draft, right?
Starting point is 00:20:55 Yes. I took him in round seven, but I think he's better in points leagues than he is in row. and yeah, I don't know. I was looking over that draft again yesterday. I feel like with the exception of Boba Chet in round two, Salvador Perez in round three, like every player I took felt like a round earlier than I would have liked to take him. But, you know, that's what happens when you're,
Starting point is 00:21:19 that's what happens when you're drafting with a bunch of podcast listeners. Yeah, no, it was a sharp draft. So shout out to everyone who was in it. You mentioned great plate discipline. It helps Brian Reynolds, especially in points leagues, 11.6% walk rate, just an 18% strikeout rate.
Starting point is 00:21:35 Statcast, expected batting average, is supported by all the line drives that Brian Reynolds hits as well. So, you know, wish he was in a better lineup, obviously, but, you know, he was still awesome last year. 39th overall player in Roto, even in that Pirates lineup. Scott, who would you rather have Brian Reynolds or J.D. Martinez, who we were just talking about? Reynolds.
Starting point is 00:21:55 Okay. I have Reynolds at the top of that tier that I mentioned earlier. I actually have a Loy Jimenez at the top of that tier, but according to ADP, he goes much earlier. Yeah. I have Reynolds ahead of Schwarber, who I like a lot. I have him that have Yelich and Tyler O'Neill and J.D. Martinez, Stanton,
Starting point is 00:22:16 that whole group. Reynolds is the one I want the most. All right. Eighth round target for me. Someone on this podcast has to draft closers. It's not going to be Scott. It's not going to be Chris. Kenley Jansen is someone who I find myself.
Starting point is 00:22:30 self-drafting quite a bit. Either him or Jordan Romano. I really like to get one of those top, I believe it's a top nine, basically, that I feel really strong about both the job security and the skills of those relievers. And Kenley Jansen is certainly one of those.
Starting point is 00:22:43 Now with the Atlanta Braves, he was a top four reliever in both formats last year, Roto and heads head points. He has 25 or more saves in nine straight full seasons. Actually saw a velocity jump last year too on the fastball. He went from 92.4 miles per hour in 2020. to 93.9 miles per hour last season. Scott,
Starting point is 00:23:04 I feel like Jansen is someone that you've been scared to draft in the past. How do you feel about him here in 2022? I'm fine with him. Yeah, he with a rebound in velocity last year, and he got back to be more of a strikeout pitcher, had a little bit of a resurgence there after looking like his skills were declining. I think I have him higher than you and Chris have him among closers.
Starting point is 00:23:27 I have him ahead of Ryan Presley. I guess that's the only name that would be controversial. But yeah, I think he's fine. I just, you know, he's probably too luxurious of a closer for me. Yeah, so we both have him ranked as our seventh relief pitcher. I have him just ahead of our oldest Chapman and Jordan Romano. You have him ahead of Ryan Presley, as you mentioned, Jordan Romano, and then you have Chapman down as your 10th relief pitcher in the ranks.
Starting point is 00:23:55 Let's move on to round nine. These are picks 97 through 108. Who is someone you find yourself drafting most? Ooh, there's a lot of names I like here. Yeah, me too. I would say the highest priority from this group for me is Justin Verlander. But like I was saying about Charlie Morton, I think what we've seen from Verlander this spring has alleviated people's concerns about his health ones that I thought were overblown in the first place,
Starting point is 00:24:23 which is why, thankfully, I have a lot of shares of Verlander already. but it's getting to be harder to draft him and it's unlikely you're going to get him as late as 104, what his ADP says. So more realistically, Kyle Schwerber is the priority for me in this range. You pace out his at-bats last year because he missed some time with injury.
Starting point is 00:24:45 You pace it out over the 155 games he played in 2019 and it comes out to 44 home runs and a career high in batting average as well. And these were the product of conscious changes that he made, to his stance, lower crouch, incorporating his legs more in his swing. He worked with Kevin Long, one of the most esteemed hitting coaches to recapture his stance and his swing from when he was in the minors, when he was in college, when he was a guy who just put up monster numbers across the board, Kyle Schwerber.
Starting point is 00:25:21 So the good thing is, too, he's reunited with Kevin Long in Philadelphia. They started out together in Washington last year and now they're together again in Philadelphia. I wonder why Kevin Long, like, as, like he's the most well-known hitting coach, right? Kevin Long?
Starting point is 00:25:35 Why is he such a journeyman? Like, why does he keep bouncing from organization? I guess maybe he gets too expensive? I don't know. I don't have an answer for that. But I was thinking about that the other day. Like,
Starting point is 00:25:48 you'd think some team would want to lock him down, but it hasn't happened. Yeah, no, It's interesting. I don't have an answer for it either. Kyle Swarber, regardless of format too, Scott. I mean, he is awesome. What he did last year, he finished 84th overall in Roto.
Starting point is 00:26:06 He did that in just 113 games. He averaged 3.3 fantasy points per game. That was tied for 15th among outfielers with Yurdon Alvarez and Cedric Mullins. So, I mean, those are players that are being drafted typically in rounds 3 and 4, and you're getting Schwerber, you know, four or five rounds later. So yeah, look, all in on Kyle Schorber with you. 17.5% bowel rate, 96th percentile.
Starting point is 00:26:32 He was much better against left-handed pitching. And, you know, he's not a typical lead-off man, but it looks like he's going to lead off for the Phillies. So should score a boatload of runs in that lineup as well. So Kyle Swarber, make sure to target him. Justin Verlander, you mentioned, he's another one, Scott, where I love to get him. The ADP, the last two weeks over at the NFBC is 80.3.
Starting point is 00:26:55 So that's actually the seventh round, if you want to draft him. And in our points league yesterday, I took them in the fourth round. So I'm just going all the way. I moved them up to my SP15. So I'm just like all in on Justin Verlander. Yeah, I think I need to, I think I should move them up too. Should have done it. I spent so much time on my rankings yesterday, Frank.
Starting point is 00:27:13 You have no idea. Oh. I kind of have an idea, but I imagine you did even more than I did. I thought, I'll spend an hour. to on rankings. I think maybe it ended up being closer to five or six. So that's why I'm like, no, DeGrom, just stay put. But I should probably go in there, move up Verlander ahead of, ahead of like Montas,
Starting point is 00:27:35 who we talked about a couple rounds ago, right? Right. I think probably ahead of like Lance Len. So in between Kevin Gosman and Lance Lynn, a couple spots after Charlie Morton. Yep. Sounds about right for me. He looks fine, and I don't think they're going to restrict them that much coming off Tommy John,
Starting point is 00:27:51 Yep. Get him inside the top 20 there. Shane McClanahan, someone I've talked about a lot at this point. Obviously, you can go back and listen to our sleepers breakouts and busts. I talked about him a ton there as well. Yasmani Grandaul, I just want to quickly mention he is someone who I love to get as one of those top five or six catchers, so I don't have to worry about the position. Last year he hit 23 home runs in 93 games. That is a 32 homer pace over 130, which I think is typical. of a catcher. He averaged 3.4 fantasy points per game. That was number one among catchers. Salvador Perez averaged 3.1 fantasy points per game. So it just goes to show how great Grandaul was on a per game basis. He got off to that really terrible start the first month.
Starting point is 00:28:36 And then basically after that, he was great. And he crushed the ball. 96 percentile average exit velocity, 83rd percentile and barrel rate. There's a lot to like with Yasmani Grandal. Great lineup. You just has to stay on the field. So I find myself targeting him quite a bit in round nine whenever he's available.
Starting point is 00:28:55 And in a points league, boost him up. Maybe even seventh or eighth round, because he is just fantastic in that format. The 10th round, Scott, these are picks 109 through 120. Who is one of your favorites? I don't like this group at all. This round is not good. Yeah, I'm probably hoping somebody spills over from earlier.
Starting point is 00:29:17 Yeah. Either that or what I've noticed, Scott, is right after pick 120, that's where you start to see the profit pocket. So if there's nobody else I like in this range, I'll take a Reese Hoskins, a Joey Votto, a Josh Bell, somebody like that. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:29:35 No, that makes sense. I think in last night's draft, I took Josh Bell in round 10. But he was the last of the problem, well, second to last, if we're counting Luke Void. He was the fourth of the five profit pocket first baseman. the ones whose values we like so much, drafted,
Starting point is 00:29:54 and that was in round 10 of a points league where you'd think hitters would get pushed down. So, yeah, I'm with you there. I think maybe we're at a point in the ADP where ADP becomes less sticky. Yep, you know? I probably also, and he's not in this range of players, he's just outside of it, he's 125.
Starting point is 00:30:16 Dalton Varsho, this is where I'd look to take him, who I like as a breakout candidate, primary center fielder for the diamondbacks, but catcher eligible and really found his stroke over the last 60 games last season. His numbers looked a lot like they did in the minors, batting average around 290, OPS near 900,
Starting point is 00:30:36 and he's going to steal some bases. So that's a special type of catcher if he lives up to the potential. Yeah, I wanted to mention a catcher myself. Wilson Contreras. If I miss out on Yasmani Grandal, I will look for Wilson Contreras again. To me, he's the end of that tier. It's one of those top basically six catchers this season, and I would love to get one of them. I think he's more of a high floor play than a ceiling play at this point. We kind of know who Wilson Contreras is. Batting average is not going to be great. He hits for power. Actually stole five bases last year as well. And I think he's going to see some time at DH. I think that's kind of an underrated aspect of his game now. Universal D.8. in the National League. The team signed Jan Goem, so I think they want to get him
Starting point is 00:31:21 some playing time. And whenever Contreras is not catching, I think there's a good chance that he will be the DH. 76 career plate appearances as a designated hitter. Contreras hitting 283 with a 954 OPS. I think it's going to help him.
Starting point is 00:31:36 I like Wilson Contreras quite a bit. Before we hit the break, I want to remind everyone to send us your listener league submissions this weekend for the 16-team Head to Ed Categories League that we're doing on Tuesday night, April 5th, 8 p.m. Eastern Time will be the time for that draft.
Starting point is 00:31:53 And again, this is, I'll announce the winners who is in that league on Monday's podcast. So send us your submissions over the weekend, fantasy baseball at cbsi.com and put FBT Listener League in the subject line. And I want to announce that we just had the best month in fantasy baseball today history, the most downloads that we've ever received. So I do want to give a shout out to all of you who've downloaded, listened, you've watched us on YouTube. It's awesome. Just to think about like everything that this podcast is done, Scott. I mean, you've, you know, been around for a long time, Adam, Nando, Al Melchior, Heath Cummings.
Starting point is 00:32:31 You guys have done it all. And it's just great to see that, you know, people are sticking with us and just had our best month ever. So, yeah, just wanted to thank everyone for hanging around and getting ready for fantasy baseball. All right, so let's take that break. And when we get back, we've got some news and notes here, fantasy baseball today. All right, so news and notes. We have an early candidate, Scott, for the most ridiculous injury by a baseball player. Jordan Romano was diagnosed with a mild left ankle sprain after he slipped while walking his dog.
Starting point is 00:33:02 Mm. That's not quite the same as carrying deer meat down the stairs in the rain as happened to, who was that? Clint Barmas? like 15 years ago. How about Zach Plyssack last year? He broke his finger taking his shirt off or something like that. I swear. Of course, Hazer's Lazzardo playing video games.
Starting point is 00:33:24 There's no... There's no other sport where players get hurt in the most random ways. I remember Jabba Chamberlain, I think, like broke his ankle on a trampoline a couple of years. Not a couple years.
Starting point is 00:33:37 It's probably like a decade ago now at this point. Zach Wheeler had a laceration on his finger because he got it caught in the zipper of his pants while he put his pants on. You can't make this stuff up. John Smolz ironed his shirt while wearing it. He could have one on the aisle for that one time. I think Sammy Sosa going on the aisle
Starting point is 00:34:00 because he sneezed or something. Oh, my. Like, that sounds like a joke, but he actually pulled something sneezing. Oh, that's only baseball. So please, get well, Jordan Romano. I think he's going to be alright. They didn't sound, you know, too worried.
Starting point is 00:34:13 about this, but obviously pay attention. Multiple scouts have heard that Alex Cobb, whose average fastball last season was 93 miles per hour, is hitting at 97 miles per hour this spring. Now, hitting 97 is not the same as sitting 97, so keep that in mind. But his max velocity last year was 95.1. So this is something, you know,
Starting point is 00:34:36 if his max is 2 miles per hour more than it was last year, now with the Giants, we already loved Alex Cobb. The hype grows, Scott. I'm very excited to draft Alex Cop. Tim Anderson will begin the season with a two-game suspension stemming from an altercation he had with an umpire in September of last year. So if you play in a league where you set your lineup for just Friday, Saturday, Sunday, or I guess Thursday through Sunday to start the season, you might want to consider benching Tim Anderson.
Starting point is 00:35:04 Reds manager, David Bell, said the hope is that all three of Luis Castillo, Mike Minor, and Donovan Solano will be back before the end of April. I don't know what that means for Hunter Green or Nick Ladolo if he manages to make the rotation, but I guess they'll have a good problem on their hands, assuming that those guys are pitching well. Yeah. Now, it'll probably depend somewhat on the performance for Lodolo and Green. I mean, they're going to have to limit their innings at some point, too. They're not going to be able to go from April through September. I don't think, I don't think Lodolo even made it to 70 innings last year.
Starting point is 00:35:41 Green had more like 120. I don't have the exact numbers ready, but that's going top of mind. That's where I think they were last year in the miners. I believe Hunter Green was 106 is what I saw yesterday, and Nick Ladolo was...
Starting point is 00:35:55 50 and 2 thirds, so I gave both of them too much credit. Yeah, they're going to need to have their innings limited. For sure. Before we get to some more news, let's get to another one of those listener submission songs that we got. And this one, admittedly, it's an awesome song.
Starting point is 00:36:12 I had to look up where it was from, because of course, I haven't seen anything. I know about, like, a handful of things. One of them is fantasy baseball, thankfully. But yeah, this song is a cover from the movie Encanto, in the song We Don't Talk About Bruno, but it's actually
Starting point is 00:36:28 We Don't Talk About Soto by Scott Wolf, the other Scott W. Take it away. We don't talk about Soto. No, no, no. We don't talk about Soto. But it was my big draft day. I was getting ready and there wasn't a flaw in my ranks. No flaw's allowed in my ranks. Soto, you, he pops up in my cue. Is my opponent drafting him or am I?
Starting point is 00:37:01 He better not snipe me. Soto's got that O.B.P. I love a good walk, projected well by ATC Arell you are great Did my rival really steal him from me I'll still win the league but anywhere We don't talk about Soto No no no We don't talk about Soto
Starting point is 00:37:26 That was awesome I mean even if you don't know the song If you haven't seen in Canto That was great so putting on all the different voices and stuff That was just job well done by Scott Wolf and happy to have you in the league. Let's get back into the news. Apparently, Michael Conforo hasn't signed with a team yet
Starting point is 00:37:42 because he landed irregularly on his right shoulder during a workout in January. He wanted to be 100% before resuming contract negotiations. So it doesn't seem like he will sign with a team before this season at this point. But we'll see. I mean, I still think he's a valuable player, Scott. So I find it kind of weird that he hasn't.
Starting point is 00:38:04 Yeah. Wouldn't you rather be paid to recover than not? I guess so. Yeah, it's a weird tactic. I think he's a Scott Borris client, right? I think so. Yes. I don't make that.
Starting point is 00:38:16 I don't know. I don't know if we have the actual explanation. But that explanation works for now. Rangers manager, Chris Woodward said that Mitch Garver will catch between 90 and 100 games and also play some at designated hitter and first base. So good news there. that's fine. I mean, actually, it's probably better. So not as much wear and tear on the body. Get to stay in the lineup. Good news for Mitch Garver. Not good news for my guy Luis Arias. He said on
Starting point is 00:38:45 Thursday that he's still only running at about 50% because of that quad injury. I have lowered him a bit in the rankings as a result. He's going to start the year on the IL. Reed Detmer's appears likely to open the season as the Angels sixth starter. Of course, they typically go with a six-man rotation. Scott, where does Detmer's rank among All right, let me put this together. Mackenzie Gore, Hunter Green, Nicola Dolo, Mitch Keller. So I'll throw Detmer's in that mix.
Starting point is 00:39:14 Where does he rank among those five? I think if I caught all the names, I think he's last for me of that five. Okay. But I did move him up quite a bit in that big rankings overhaul yesterday. Well, this isn't going to sound impressive of all. Oh, well, you know what?
Starting point is 00:39:34 I have them the highest of the three of us. So there. I have him 81st at starting pitcher, Reed Detmer's, and that is about 20 spot. That's about 11. About 10 spots higher than you and 20 spots higher than Chris.
Starting point is 00:39:45 But then again, I know neither one of you spent six hours working on your rankings yesterday. So I'll let it slide. Yes, I did move up that entire group of prospects, and I kind of have them in a cluster, which I've ranked Mitch Keller, Hunter Green,
Starting point is 00:40:00 Matt Brash, McKenzie Gore, Reed Detmers, and then Nick Ladolo. And it's partially a combination of skill, but also just ranking Ladolo last because I don't know if he's in the rotation yet. I guess same thing could be said for McKenzie Gore. But, yeah, I think they're all names to look at
Starting point is 00:40:17 at the end of your draft, and I think they all have quite a bit of upside. Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports that Daniel Bard is likely to open the season as part of a three-man closer by committee for the Rockies, which is terrible, because the Rockies are not going to win many games. And now they're talking about a third.
Starting point is 00:40:33 three-man committee. So that would include Daniel Bard, Alex Colame, and Carlos Estevez. Not great. Tyler Wells will open the season
Starting point is 00:40:40 in the Orioles rotation, though he'll be followed by a bulk reliever early on. Scott, would you like to guess the Orioles starting
Starting point is 00:40:48 rotation? I think, I think, what's that guy's name? Bruce Zimmerman. Is he in there? Oh, yeah, he's in there.
Starting point is 00:40:58 Bruce Zimmerman. Can't forget about Bruce. Obviously, Tyler Wells. That's right. Oh, gosh. I don't think Dean Kramer's in there, right? I don't know.
Starting point is 00:41:12 You're missing a big one here. J.M.B. John Means. Oh, John Means. Of course. He's up top. They've got Jordan Lyles. And the latest on roster resource has Keegan Aiken in there,
Starting point is 00:41:26 though I've seen Zach Lother was there for most of the offseason. So maybe something happened with Zach Lothar. There you go. Baltimore's 2022. Rangers prospect, Jack Leiter will bypass rookie and A ball. He will start his minor league career at AA. Scott, do you think that means that we could see Jack Leiter this season?
Starting point is 00:41:45 Yeah, there's a chance. I'd bet against it, but there's a chance. I'm saying there's a chance. Some other popular prospects were in the news. They were optioned back to AAA on Thursday. Jose Miranda, Edward Cabrera, Alec Thomas, Josh Lowe, and Juan Yippez.
Starting point is 00:42:01 Scott, of that group of five, Are there any worth stashing? Miranda, yeah. If for no other reason than because he's eligible third base, but like just look at what he did between AA and AAA last year. But there's no reason why he should really have to go back to AAA, except maybe to work on defense or because they don't really have a way for him to play every day yet. But there will be an opportunity that arises at some point sooner than later.
Starting point is 00:42:31 I believe. And I imagine they'll turn to Miranda. it pretty quickly. Yeah, Gio Orchella is having a brutal spring. He's, you know, this might not matter to them at all, but he's two for 21 with four strikeouts to one walk. He's batting 0.095. You know, I don't know how invested in Gio Orchella they are.
Starting point is 00:42:47 He, you know, came over in the Josh Donaldson trade. But, you know, if he struggles all of April, you know, that could lead to an opening for Jose Miranda. And his cousin wrote, we don't talk about Bruno. So we're getting a lot of Miranda references in here. Oh, look at the. that. All right.
Starting point is 00:43:05 Nice. Good stuff, Scottie. A few other spring training performances I wanted to mention from Thursday. Blake Snell made his spring debut. He allowed three runs. Two of those were earned and four walks over one in a third innings pitched.
Starting point is 00:43:18 His fastball velo was fine. His slider velocity was down two and a half miles per hour. And he threw, I believe it was four changeups out of his, it was like 50 or 60 pitches. So he didn't use the changeup much last year when he was at its best.
Starting point is 00:43:33 He completely ditched a change up and he just went fastball slider heavy. So that's the hope that he goes back to that. Yeah, yeah, I don't feel very comfortable with him. He was one that I moved down. At one point I had him ahead of like, gosh, I think I had him ahead of Justin Verlander originally. But now he's behind like Pablo Lopez for me, which, And also behind, you know, like Alec Manoa, Dylan C, Shane McClan, and that upside group.
Starting point is 00:44:09 Yep. Yeah, I just, you know, there's, you definitely see a lot of downside for Blake Snell, even though the opposite side of the coin looks pretty strong. So I know we've got this coming up in just a little bit, Scott, but, you know, players that you've changed your stance on most throughout spring training, I guess Blake Snell would qualify as one of those for you, right? Yeah, I guess. I mean, his lack of availability.
Starting point is 00:44:33 obviously is not encouraging when you want to see you want to see if he picked up where he left off last year. We didn't get a chance to. Well, I mean, he did finally make one start and you don't want to make too much of one start ever, but you have to have
Starting point is 00:44:48 you have to make something of you need something to make something of. That makes sense. We need to see something from you, Blake's now. That's the point. And what we saw on Thursday was not great. Bryson Stott, prospect for the Phillies. He's went two for two.
Starting point is 00:45:04 He is now batting 5.50 this spring. Kestanheera hit his fourth home run of spring training this time off Ryseli Glacius. It also went over the batter's eye in straightaway center field. It was an absolute bomb. Kestan Hiro is 9 for 22. He's batting 409. The problem, the strikeout rate is still 33%. Scott, who would you rather take a shot on late in your drafts?
Starting point is 00:45:26 Bryson Stott or Kestanhira? I mean, it sounds like, it sounds like Bryson Stott is more likely to have a, an everyday role because it's not clear where Kest and Hero fits in the lineup even if he makes the team. But I don't know that I'm that worried about the strikeouts for him. That 2019 season where we all thought it was the B's knees, Kest and Hero struck out 30.7% of the time then, you know, and he put up great numbers because of the way he impacted the ball. So I think as much as anything, his struggles the last two years are just,
Starting point is 00:45:59 the quality of contact wasn't the same as it was during that rookie season. And the way he looked this spring with, you know, simplifying his swing, making it, so there's just the one-timing mechanism lifting the leg as opposed to the two. Like the way he was swinging before, he would like, he would like, would rely on both a leg kick and a toe tap. And it was like it was just, he just needed to simplify, obviously, because it's hard to, get it all in sync while also timing up the pitch, you know? And that seems to be the change for Keston here this spring. Yeah, we've seen that with a lot of hitters that either have a toe tap or a big leg kick is,
Starting point is 00:46:42 you know, the timing could just be off for like long stretches of time. I know Gary Sanchez, you know, watching him for years, he's got this huge, huge leg kick. And, you know, when he's on, when the timing is right, you could see him go on one of those binges for a couple of weeks a month where he's just absolutely crushing the ball. and then other times where he looks completely off. You know, Josh Donaldson, another one. He has a huge leg kick, but, you know, I feel like he's kind of, he's more so mastered it
Starting point is 00:47:06 the past couple of years, five years, 10 years, basically. But yeah, you can see that with those big leg kicks. Two deep pitcher names, I wanted to mention quickly here, Scott, having strong springs, Dylan Bundy and Zach Eflin. Anything to see here with these two? I mean, Bundy's velocity is pretty bad. And we really only have, it's just that 2020 season,
Starting point is 00:47:29 that short 2020 season that we're going on as any kind of measurement of upside for Bundy. No, I mean, I still see him as low-end option, even if he's had nine pretty good innings this spring. And Evelyn, I don't think there's much upside there either. I could see them both being streamer types. I think Eflin maybe has an even better chance of being that than Bundy. I'm not really moving them into the draftable range of starting pitchers.
Starting point is 00:47:55 All right, let's get into the players that. we're scared of Scott, and we could just kind of rattle off a bunch of names, and I think there could be some overlap with the players we mentioned as busts on our Monday podcast, but... Oh, there's going to be, yeah. There's also some names that I have here that
Starting point is 00:48:10 I don't necessarily have them on my bus list, but I just never find myself drafting them for, you know, it could be a gut feeling that I have, maybe it's just like the players going around them, you know, injury concerns, and I'll get to my list, but Scott, who are some players that
Starting point is 00:48:26 you're just scared of. You just don't find yourself drafting. Well, I, you know, some of the busts we've talked about before, just rattling off the names real quick, Jazz Chisholm, Randy Rosa Rana, both big, well, Roserana, especially big overachiever. In terms of stat cast last year, Marcus Simeon, falls into that category as well.
Starting point is 00:48:52 Like, I feel like he goes too late for me to say, I'm scared to draft him, but Ryan Moucassel, of course, my biggest bus candidate of all. So I don't ever see much reason to draft him. But kind of more along the lines of what you're talking about, where it's just like this feeling that I'm not sure that the upside is worth, I don't know, I just have a bad feeling or whatever.
Starting point is 00:49:18 Like I'm not willing to call them a bust, but I can see downside there that maybe makes it so the upside isn't, worth it to me. And so Tyler O'Neill would fit into that category. Like, I think what he, like, if he can keep doing what he did last year, it's legit. It's not like he overachieved, but I'm just always scared of that player who strikes out more than 30% of the time unless he's shown he can repeat it over and over again. And it's just one year for O'Neill. Byron Buxton, of course, with the injury risk, scared of him.
Starting point is 00:49:52 Not saying I want to draft him. There's a ton of upside there. but I'm always a little scared too and I rarely do because of that. Got a bad feeling about Mitch Hanigar. What? Yeah. Oh, really? I didn't know that.
Starting point is 00:50:07 Now sometimes he ends up like going so far after John Carlos Stanton like three or four rounds after John Carlos Stanton. Like he's just still there and okay I mean I'm not going to pass up obvious value. So maybe others are scared of him too but there wasn't a lot there other than in the home runs.
Starting point is 00:50:25 And obviously he plays in a big park that's not really suited for home runs. So it just makes me a little nervous. Cody Bellinger, obviously. I mean, the guy's struck out in three quarters at bats this spring or whatever and it's just been a mechanical mess. So he got added to bus 3.0.
Starting point is 00:50:46 And I'm to the point with him. Originally I had him in Yelich back to back, Bellinger actually ahead. But now, I think, think they're like, they're probably like 30 spots apart in my overall rankings. And I'm just, I'm trying to rank Bellinger at a point where I don't have to worry about drafting him basically because, uh, the odds seem pretty long at this point. I know the Dodgers are, or putting on a brave face and saying, ah, just give it time.
Starting point is 00:51:16 Ah, I saw Dave Roberts today was saying, ah, I think he's finally settled on something. Great. Who knows what that something is, but yeah, it's, it's, it's just been one thing after another with him. Like, he's, he keeps getting in his own way with these mechanical tweaks and messing up his shoulder, celebrating a home run into playoffs two years ago and needing surgery. Yeah, definitely scared of Bellinger. Blake Snell, who we mentioned, I went from being kind of excited to drafting him to being pretty scared. I still think there's justification to it if you don't feel like you have enough strikeouts already
Starting point is 00:51:59 at that point in the draft. Like, his strikeout potential is so high. Particularly after, like, Dylan Cease is already gone, and you're looking at Blake Snell or Chris Bassett or Ranger Suarez or somebody like that. And it's like, oh, well, I need to make it. up ground and strikeouts. Let's roll the dice on Blake Snell, but it very much feels like a roll with the dice now.
Starting point is 00:52:27 And Luis Castillo is another name I've highlighted here. I really don't have any interest. I mean, obviously that he hasn't been healthy for spring training hasn't helped. It's not a serious injury, but he won't be ready to go for the start of the year. So that doesn't help. But I also think we're to the point now where we have to accept a high whip with him. We've seen that enough over the years that him being a ground ball pitcher, you know, it seems like some of those ground balls more than we'd like sneak through.
Starting point is 00:52:58 And the control hasn't been great either. And the Reds look pretty awful. So I'm not sure. You know, he might be a net negative in terms of both whip and wins, in which case I might just rather have Chris Bassett, you know? Oh, yeah. I've lowered Luis Castillo below Chris. Basset in my ranks. So I was already pretty nervous about Castillo before the injury. And yeah,
Starting point is 00:53:27 I'm out as well. A few other, a few players that I'm scared of. Yeah, I'll mention a few that are on the bus list. That I'm like legitimately scared of. A roll this Chapman for, you know, the sticky substance in the second half. I know, Scott, you've referenced like the strikeout rate was still pretty good for him, but the walks were massive. It seems like he had no idea, even more so than usual, where the ball was going. So I do worry about that for Chapman and there's already enough to worry about with closers. I just don't want to get involved there. Cedric Mullins,
Starting point is 00:53:57 maybe it's just like a psychological thing that he was going so late last year. He was even likely picked up as a free agent in a lot of fantasy leagues where now you have to use a third or fourth round pick on him. I just cannot bring myself to do it. Came back down to Earth a little bit
Starting point is 00:54:11 in the second half last year. The stackass numbers say that he overperformed last season. Place for the Orioles. I'm just, nope, washing my hands. I'm out on Chapman and Cedric Mullins. Shane Bieber, I have not drafted a single time this offseason. No mock draft, no real draft.
Starting point is 00:54:26 I just can't bring myself to do it. The pitchers that are going around him, I know Shane Bieber is way more proven than someone like Sandy Alcantara. Maybe this will wind up being a fault in my own logic, but coming off the shoulder injury last year, the fact that we've only seen him one time so far this spring and gave up like two home runs. He gives up a lot of hard contact too.
Starting point is 00:54:44 So even if he's healthy, you kind of have to worry about that too. Cleveland's not a great team. Yeah, I don't, I'm not fooling around. I mean, the upside is clearly higher for Bieber than for somebody like Alcantara. It's true. So it's mainly weighing upside versus downside. Yep. I think, I personally think the downside's overblown, but, you know, it's your list.
Starting point is 00:55:07 Aaron Nola is another one where I just don't find myself drafting him. I've done a complete 180. Last year I had him ranked inside my top five starting pitchers. And he's got a great curve ball, the fast ball, the change up, inconsistencies there. terrible defense behind him. He gave up a ton of fly balls last year. He's given up five home runs already in spring training. Maybe I overreact,
Starting point is 00:55:27 Scott. I think I probably overreact to spring training, which could be a flaw in my analysis, but I just don't like what I've seen from Aaron Nola so far. And I didn't like anything that I saw from him last year either. At Alberto Mondesie, for obvious reasons, I just can't think that I don't think he could stay healthy. I understand the upside, but he's another one.
Starting point is 00:55:45 I mean, I get it. Obviously, he's one of the biggest injury risks out there. I just feel like that's baked into his price now. He is going later now than he has in years past. The ADP is 72 for Mondesie, and I think at some point he's worth the risk. You know, if he last passed this ADP, the thing is, there's still a lot of players
Starting point is 00:56:06 that I really, really love going in this range that Mondesie is going in. So just the risk that's associated with him, hashtag, never Mondesie. The risk is baked in a lot more this year, and obviously he does something no other player in the pool can do. Correct. Right? Like, he could be all the stolen bases you need just in one player.
Starting point is 00:56:32 And as much as people pay up for stolen bases, like that is really tempting in round seven or eight or nine where I got him in Tel Wars. It's an OBP league. But still, that was like that was just awesome to me. Round nine of a 15-team league, by the way. Yeah, LBP league. So, you know, obviously he doesn't want much at all, but still. And I actually like drafting Mondesian head-to-head categories leagues because single-handedly when you're that category for all the weeks he's healthy, probably.
Starting point is 00:57:03 You know, that's a big deal. So I don't, look, there's obvious risk there, but I don't. I'm not as fearful of drafting him as it sounds like you are. I think the fact that he gives you as many steals as he does, Scott actually plays against him as well, just from a lineup construction standpoint, because if you draft him in a Roto League and you're depending on him to give you,
Starting point is 00:57:25 let's say, 30 steals, just 30. I mean, you're probably expecting that to be a huge portion of your steel total, and then maybe you don't draft as many steals after that. If he gets hurt, that completely sinks you in that category. Well, that's kind of what I'm saying, where I feel like where he's going now, that's not as much of a concern.
Starting point is 00:57:44 Like years past, he goes in round three, round four. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, that's totally true. But by the time you get to round seven, let's say he slides a little beyond ADP, which often happens. ADP has him going last pick of round six in a 12 team league. But let's say it's round seven or eight. Like, if you don't have steals at that point, you know,
Starting point is 00:58:04 there's not much you can do about it, right? Like, you take the shot on Alberto Mondesi and maybe you still get a few, like Robbie Grossman's, Nikki Lopez's, which you might be inclined to do anyway. But I think that's... I feel like that specific concern is also lessened by his ADP this year. I want to mention one other steel source too
Starting point is 00:58:28 that I have not drafted at all this offseason. I know a lot of people are excited to take him because of his steel potential. But Tommy Edmund, they're talking about batting him seventh now in the Cardinals lineup. Dylan Carlson is a legitimate contender to lead off for this team. And all of a sudden, if Edmund is not leading off ahead of guys like Aeronado and Paul Goldschmidt,
Starting point is 00:58:51 what do the county stats look like for him? Is he going to run as much? He's having a brutal spring as well. He's one for 20 so far. And he's being outplayed by Dylan Carlson. So I think he would take a huge hit. I think he was overvalued anyway even before this news. So Tommy Edmund, another one.
Starting point is 00:59:08 I just don't find myself drafting at all. Yeah, no, that's a good one. Yeah. All right. Let's quickly wrap up here, Scott. Players that you've changed your stance on throughout spring, I mean, you know, there's things that are obviously circumstances that are changing and, you know, things that are happening that can obviously change how we feel about a player. And I think that we've referenced this multiple times in the offseason. Like, there was a lot of information that we were waiting on, that we didn't know how to rank players
Starting point is 00:59:35 or how to value a certain player. And obviously, Carlos Rodon is like the top of mind where I wrote them up. in my bus, I think, 2.0. And this was when we were still in the lockout, didn't know if he was healthy, didn't know what's expected at all. And now he's throwing 98. He gets the contract from the Giants, two years, 44 million, great organization. And I moved them way up my rankings. And he's someone, I actually don't mind drafting now. So he's someone that comes to mind anyone for you that you've kind of changed your stance on. Yeah, I got Rodan ahead of you Darvish now. So I'm with you on that one. I kept him in bus 3.0, but I feel a little better about Max Muncie. I moved him up a tier
Starting point is 01:00:13 in my tiers, tiers 4.0, which is going to come out soon. Muncie's a tier higher. And, you know, there doesn't seem to have been any limitations this spring. He's playing the field. The UCL damage was in his non-throwing elbow, which I think helps. But also you have D.H. Spot available this year for the Dodgers, and I imagine he's going to see a lot of time there. The numbers this spring haven't been great, and you still wonder if he's going to be as productive with that elbow in the state it's in.
Starting point is 01:00:50 So I wish, like, if he was crushing it this spring, then, you know, I could totally get behind him. But there is still that doubt that is this really going to work all season long. but I do feel a little bit better about Max Buncey. I'm sure there are other names, but... I have a few, Scott, that I'll rattle off. Maybe you'll think of some, but...
Starting point is 01:01:12 I mean, for obvious reasons, right? Like, Luke Voight, I said if he was traded, that I would completely change my ranking and my stance on him, and there you go. He was traded from the Yankees of the Padres. Well, I mean, you could do that. Like, I could do that with Nick Castellanos and Chris Bryan.
Starting point is 01:01:25 I had to move them both out of my bust column because they ended up in about as favorable spot as they could end up in. Trevor Story to an extent, too. Not that he was in my bus column, but really favorable landing for him. No, Story is a great one too, because I was just kind of blah on story.
Starting point is 01:01:41 You know, he wasn't a target. If he fell to the right point in the draft, okay, maybe I'll take him. Now he is someone who I targeted, and he's someone that I like to draft. So Trevor Story is a good one. I mentioned Void. I moved him inside my top 130.
Starting point is 01:01:53 Bobby Witt, Jr., for obvious reasons. Yeah, I mean. I was about to say him. He looks like he's going to be on the opening day roster, and he's rocketing up ADP and rankings, and rightfully so. He's going to earn third base eligibility early on in the season. Cody Bellinger, someone we mentioned, I've moved him down my rankings. He was the player I loved on Valentine's Day, and my stance has changed quite a bit.
Starting point is 01:02:15 I just drafted him in the points league, but I think he lasted until around pick 120 or something like that. So at that point, I was willing to invest. Andrew Kittridge. There's just an infatuation, apparently. You called it love, Frank. but you were a fool in love. Andrew Kittred, someone I wanted to mention,
Starting point is 01:02:35 Pete Fairbanks dealing with the injury. I think there's a real chance that Kittridge is just the closer for the raise on a great team, and he's got great stuff, strikeouts. Rations were great last year as well. So I've moved Kittredge up, and then Craig Kimberle is someone who I've moved way down. We were expecting him to get traded.
Starting point is 01:02:52 That hasn't happened. I don't know what's happening here. I think he's owed $16 million this year. Maybe they're having trouble finding another team to take that on or maybe they're asking for too much. But as of now, it looks like Craig Kimberl is going to start the year on the White Sox. And that really offers us nothing for fantasy. If you play in a saves plus hold league, sure, you could draft Craig Kimbril, but in your traditional five by five with saves, Craig Kimbril gives you next to nothing. So I've
Starting point is 01:03:18 moved him way down. Yeah. I mean, Marcelo Zune, Osuna has been continually moving up as it became clear and clear that he's going to be a regular part of the Braves lineup. He was the number outfielder in fantasy in 2020. So I have him, I actually have him ahead of Jesse Winker, who of course lost value with that move to from Cincinnati to Seattle. I mean, if you want to get into closers, Matt Barnes, you mentioned Andrew Ketchard, and I think that's a good one, but Matt Barnes, I kept holding out in the belief that the Red Sox would bring in
Starting point is 01:03:51 somebody else to serve as their closer, but since they didn't. And since Garrett, Garrett Woodlock has been stretched out as the start of this spring, it just seems pretty clear that they're going to give Barnes another shot. And he was great for the first two-thirds of last season. So that could work out fine. Yep, that's a good one. I think, you know, Camillo Doval, we've lowered for obvious reasons. Jake McGee, we've moved up.
Starting point is 01:04:15 Joe Barlow, there was a report. Scott, you mentioned on yesterday's podcast that the Rangers don't necessarily want to use him as their closer. So I think Joe Barlow is someone that we have to downgrade. I mean, this is all stuff that's pretty typical because, you know, when it comes to closers, we're getting a bunch of. of information every day. But yeah.
Starting point is 01:04:32 Yeah, and you mentioned like Bobby Witt, other prospects have been rapidly rising as well. The Tigers duo of Spencer Torkelson and Riley Green since it looks like they're going to be on the opening day roster. Not official, but it looks like it. Julio Rodriguez and the Mariners seems to have a good chance of breaking with the team. McKenzie Gord may or may not, but he looks for. fixed after losing he just
Starting point is 01:05:03 totally lost his mechanics last year and wasn't on was completely left off a lot of top 100 list a couple months ago but he looks right again Jesus Blasardo's looked great Mitch Keller with that big velocity jump Carlos Carrasco
Starting point is 01:05:19 I feel like it's been a big riser for me even though the results haven't been good when he's pitched this spring just knowing that he had those loose bodies he was pitching with in his elbow last year and couldn't straighten it all the way. Kind of makes sense the way things played out for him. So he's distanced himself from the other two
Starting point is 01:05:39 in that forgotten ace trio, Kyle Hendricks and Zach Granky. All right, yeah, he's moved the way up the rankings for me as well. I think he's inside of my top 60 starting pitchers at this point. Velocity has looked good. I was watching him the other night. Again, the results not so great. Yerdon Alvarez hit a home run off of him.
Starting point is 01:05:57 Man, that swing is just so effortless. saw it happen. But the Vilo and the health has been very good for Carlos Carrasco. All right, Scott, I think we got to a bunch of names, a bunch of just information
Starting point is 01:06:08 on today's podcast. Let's wrap up with this poem that we received from Mary Wilkes, who is also in one of our listener leagues here. And I don't know that I will be good at reading poetry, but I will try my best.
Starting point is 01:06:23 Hooray, hooray, fantasy baseball today. They brought home the gold. They went all the way. With takes that are hot and takes that are bold. You should listen a lot if fantasy baseball you play. There's FBT and then there's the rest. Many great baseball pods, but these guys are the best. Tune into the show and your knowledge will grow. They pass every test because the answers they know. He's got fantasy superpowers. His name is Chris Towers. Nobody works harder and no one is smarter. I can listen to his wisdom for
Starting point is 01:06:51 hours and hours. Who's always right? So brilliant and bright? What do I hear that comes to my ear? Is it a bird or is it a plane or is it the word of one Michael Cain? No, it's Scott White. There's nothing to fear, but each day and each night there's so much to gain from his perfect insight. And the host with the most, a man with a plan. He would never boast even though he can. He's witty and funny and his name is Frank. When he speaks, it's like money you can take to the bank. What more can I say? It's easy to see. Just listen for free. You don't have to pay. Hooray, hooray, fantasy baseball today. I thought it was great. I really like that, Scott. It was. Yeah, kind of a, like the rhythm of it kind of reminded me of like Dr. Seuss,
Starting point is 01:07:35 you know, not necessarily the rhyming scheme, you know, but kind of had that rhythm to it. I definitely did not have any type of poetry skill. I never have. Likely never will. But that was, that was awesome. I really enjoyed reading that when it came in. And that's why Mary wound up in one of the listener leagues. All right, we're going to wrap up the show now for real. We're going to end with Joel Woods' rendition of Kokomo Friday. So we're going to wrap here, and then I'll just play that song to take us out, and everyone can enjoy it. For Scott, I am Frank.
Starting point is 01:08:04 Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. We will talk to you again on Monday. Bye-bye. Go Santana. Oh, I want to have you to knock a fuck a doctor, Jack like Michael Walker. They're going to help you. Check batty ballade ballade.
Starting point is 01:08:35 And swing and strike rates. He was Adam's happy. Fridays he plays coca. You can ring my bell. The prophet pocket Weiss Hoskin C.J. Cronjo, we've auto-ass Ciroca, you look so good in mocha. Baralta, Manoa bounce back for Aaronola.
Starting point is 01:09:27 Gilito Castillo. Ooh, I wanna take Jean-Carlo and follow up. Value so high but ADP solo Frank loves in some kind of Joe Now let's get on with the show Guy why tends to be Intentional about SB Can't tell if it's Mania
Starting point is 01:09:58 Or it's just Sean Murphy Let's draft Hunter and fro Forgotten ASTrio Aside from Car-assco they do without feelo Syroca you look so good in McAubour bounce back forever no Castillo
Starting point is 01:10:29 I want to take on Carlo and ball while you're so high but 80p so long Frank love Let's get on with This doesn't like to pay for catches Instead buy you till David Fletcher At just one dollar How could the value be better?
Starting point is 01:11:28 Buxton Springer-Monte We'll draft all Take the bet that they can stay healthy And avoiding Joe Algon truce, Castillo I wanna take Jean Carlo And value so high But 80p so low
Starting point is 01:12:04 Frank loves him kind of joke Let's get on with the Domingo Santana Because I got the like Michael walked up They're gonna help you get into first place Check batty ball data And swing and strike grades
Starting point is 01:12:29 Raisins are shrivelled Come use Adam's happy he plays

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