Fantasy Baseball Today - Jarred Kelenic Time! The State of Fantasy Baseball & Statcast Fun (5/11 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: May 11, 2021

Woo it sounds like Jarred Kelenic will be called up this Thursday (0:54)! How far is he moving up the rankings and should you sell-high? Jared Walsh leads our Monday standouts with four hits (10:42). Who should you trust more between Kyle Gibson and Alex Wood? ... News and notes (19:47)! Jacob deGrom will go on the IL Tuesday, Cody Bellinger is running, plus we have prospect updates. ... Tyler Naquin or Nick Senzel (25:30)? Should you re-add Ryan Mountcastle? Let's take a closer look at the state of Fantasy Baseball (31:07). Is 2021 the year of the pitcher? ... What updates do we have on the new baseball and how it's affecting the game (41:22)? ... Who are the biggest over or underachievers based on Statcast (45:21)? ... We wrap up with some bullpen updates, pitchers to stream, and Team Name Tuesday (53:05)! ... Email us at [e-mail]. 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank, @AdamAizer Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive. Centerfield is magnificent. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam.

It's Jared Kellanick time. Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Tuesday, May 11th. Frank Stamphill joined by Scott White and Chris. Towers, only five games on the schedule Monday. So we'll get a little creative with it on today's podcast. We'll take a look at the state of fantasy baseball. Chris wrote a fantastic article, which is on the site right now. We'll have some fun with Statcast, some Monday standout, some team name Tuesday.

But of course, let's start with Jared Kelnick, one of the top prospects in baseball. He is a top five prospect, I would say, confidently. and arguably the number two hitting prospect behind Wanderfranco. He is 81% rostered. According to Jeff Passon of ESPN, Kalnick is expected to be called up by the Mariners on Thursday. All right, guys. So Scott, we'll start with you.

What is your expectation for Jared Kalenik? How far have you moved them up in the rankings? Should we be trying to sell high? What do you think? I don't think you should be trying to sell high. Because this is, I think, a very special talent. I think somebody who is just naturally gifted at baseball makes everything look easy. You know, the numbers from 2019 when he played in three different minor league spots were very good.

They're kind of what took him from being a good prospect to one of the very best. I think there was a publication or two that even had him as the number one overall prospect entering this season. ahead of Franco and some others who might have been in that discussion. And then, I mean, you look at just a little bit we've seen of him this year. He homered twice in AAA Tacoma's opening day, once off a left-hander, which was reportedly what the Mariners wanted to see him have success against in the minors, was left-handers. He struck out one time in 20 at bats this spring, homering twice and doubling twice.

and that was even with his spring being interrupted for a couple weeks by a groin injury, a grade two, a ductor strain. Didn't it slow him down at all. He runs well, he works the count well, but he's not like overly patient. Like he knows how to do damage when he gets his pitch. And I just think, I think there's a good chance he contributes in all five categories from this point forward and that he does that he does the peripheral things that help him stand. down points leagues too. I just think

I think this is the prospect call up who's going to have the biggest impact this year even more than Franco and I already given the state of outfield right now given the the need for

impact bats in fantasy baseball right now I'm already moving him into my top 20 outfielders you know maybe I'll have to move him down because I'm he ends up struggling right away I just don't think like once you get to that 20 spot in the outfield rankings,

everything behind that, I'm just not going to miss it that much. I don't feel like. So if it came down to it, I'd rather have Kelnick and see if he, he lives up to this best case outcome right away. You mentioned the numbers back in 2019, Scott. I mean, they were phenomenal.

It was a 291 batting average, 904 OPS, 23 homers, 20 steals. I moved Jared Kellnick up to outfielder 27 in Roto because I do think he is going to be, more of a contributor across the board there, which the steals obviously will help. But I don't think he does anything wrong in Points League. So I haven't met outfield 30.

I see what you're saying. I mean, there's a bunch of players in this mix. And this, honestly, 18 to 30-ish range from Austin Meadows to Michael Conforto, to Randy or Rosa Raina, who have either been inconsistent or just underperforms so far this year. So look, if Jared Kellanick comes up, first couple of weeks, he's mashing.

I can easily see moving him up. to that point very quickly as well. Chris, what would you like to add on Jared Kelnick, one of the top prospects in baseball? You hyped? I'm very excited. I'm really glad he got that one plate appearance against the lefty so he could prove it. I'm really glad he got to work on his defense for four games. I mean, look, we knew he was going to get called up very soon. Their president before getting fired said that if he would accept a contract extension, they would call him up on opening day. So, like, we know they've thought he was ready.

The Mariners' PR team was putting out near daily videos about how good he was at summer camp last season. I think he probably could have just gotten called up back then if they had been competing for something. You know, I think it's often helpful for, you know, people who don't know much about prospects to try to give some, like, comparisons for players. and I think if you want like a most likely outcome,

I think maybe like the good, healthy Tommy fam years, where he's just like an all-around contributor, gets on base, steals some bases, hits for some power, really good all-around hitter. I think if you're looking for like a ceiling comp,

Francisco Lindor, like that kind of combination of contact skills, power, and stolen base potential, I think he could give you all of that. I think the best case scenario for Jared Kellenick is that he's a first round player moving forward. He is, and I like the Tommy fam comparison just because,

like, aesthetically, it fits. They are both just absolute beef cakes. Like, Jared Kelleck is just, like, super jacked.

He's not quite Tyler O'Neill or Luke Voight, I guess, but he is a big dude. Apparently he's put on like 30 pounds of muscle since he was drafted. but by all accounts, he can still play center field. He can still play it pretty well. He's still got good speed. He's very nearly the total package.

I think of Wander Franco got called up, but he would probably be ranked a little bit higher than Jared Kalenick, but that's not a knock on Kalenik. It is here now, and I have him 29th at Outfield in both formats. And for anyone who hears the Tommy Fam comp, and they're like, Tommy fam. Just a reminder. Tommy fame is awesome.

He was great. I mean, Tommy fan back in 2017, 306 batting average, 23 homers, 25 steals. So if we got something, anything close to that, even on a per game basis, the rest of the season for Jared Kellanick, that would be awesome. And then on the high end, you know, Lindor, as you mentioned, maybe he gets to 30, 20, something like that, 30, 25 for Kellnick. So very excited there. Chris, would you be looking to sell high? Because a lot of people say, I mean, specifically in redraft Def Leagues, Dynasty Keeper, I think you want to hold him. But there is no higher point of trade value than when a prospect is just called up. Yeah, I mean, look, like we all would love to see every prospect hit the ground running. We're making, you know, I said a most likely outcome is Tommy Fam.

That's probably unfair. I think almost like like, like Vladimir Guerrero is the best heading prospect of a generation. And it took him until year three to really live up to expectations. so, you know, obviously it could go wrong for clinic, but, yeah, if you could get Christian Yelich for him right now, I think I would probably do that even with the questions about Christian Yelich. If you could get Marcelo Zuna, if I could get Byron Buxton for him, I think I would probably do that. Kyle Tucker is like the bylaw we bring up every day. Kyle Tucker, sure. Okay.

there are others who like like I still have Austin Meadows ranked 16th I think I would have to do that but that I would actually not feel great about there are some red flags in Meadows a bad at a small profile Meadows is actually who I have Kelnick one spot ahead of now it sounds like I have Kelnick the highest of the three of us yes you definitely do

and I was tempted to move Ozuna behind him too I ultimately didn't, but I'm... So Ozuna, Ozuna in Meadows, there's, there's, we'll get into this a little more in the state of baseball, a piece that I wrote, but, um, there was a Fangraph piece from last week that basically highlighted that, like, the batted balls that have been most affected by the,

uh, new ball on the, the, you know, higher exit velocity, but lower, uh, average distance. specifically has been like batted balls hit with an average launch angle over 30 degrees under 105 miles per hour. There's been a significant difference in the result on those batted balls. And Marcelo Zuna, Austin Meadows, and God, there's another guy. But Marcelo Zuna and Austin Meadows were among the league leaders in those types of bad at balls, which, you know, I guess could be a warning sign that they are, you know, specifically going to be affected by this. I think

Marcelo Zena just hits the ball too well to really have that problem moving forward but I'm definitely not a hundred person like I wouldn't feel confident trading Kalanek for one of those guys. Yeah. And as the high guy on Austin Meadows coming into the season

Statcast kind of did this whole update where they changed some expected stats for players based on what you were just talking about Chris and Austin Meadows expected stats went way down. So I think there is a little bit more cause for concern there. I wouldn't make that trade.

And I was high on Meadows coming in. I would not trade Kalanick away for Austin Meadows in a redraft league right now. But we will talk about Meadows a little bit more in a bit as well. Jared Kellanick coming up this Thursday, very exciting times. But let's talk about some standouts from Monday's action. Oh my goodness gracious. What do you got, Scott? What do you want to start?

I want to start with the player who I have directly ahead of Kalnick in my outfield. rankings. And that's Jared Walsh, who you keep expecting him to get worse and yet somehow he keeps getting better. The game in Houston ended today. Walsh was on base

five times. He went four for four with a walk. He hit his seventh home run. He hit his sixth double. He even stole his second base. So it was a huge game for Jared Walsh. He's now batting 347 for the Angels. Now,

interesting about that is in the past when we've talked about Walsh, I've talked about, oh, look, the strikeout rate that improved so much last September, you know, because he was a guy who struck out a lot in the minors. Oh, he's not striking out that much this year either. Well, it's creeping up. It's creeping up. It's above 20% now, which is not a high strikeout rate, but it's getting close to kind of the breaking point of that,

of being a high strikeout rate versus a not. so high strikeout rate. His expected stats, 266 batting average 458 slug, obviously much, much lower than his actual ones. And yet, he's been one of the few awesome hitters in baseball this year. Right? There's how many, how many hitters have been legitimately awesome this year? So I'll just point out, in our Roto scoring formula, which is based on the 2019 run environment, 15 of the top 20 hitters overall heading into today's action

were starting pitchers 15 of the top 20 players, sorry, we're starting pitchers. Only five of the hitters of them were hitters. That kind of sums it up. Yeah, so he's actually producing and outfield in particular, really outfield and first base,

the two positions where he's eligible. There are very few players who are actually doing something for you. Yeah. I guess, like, if you want to put a positive spin on what his batting average should look like versus what it actually is, his fly ball rate is 31.4, it's not very high. He hits the ball on the ground a lot. He hits the line drive rate at a pretty good rate, too. So both of those are going to yield higher batting efforts than fly balls will.

And maybe it's better not to hit so many fly balls in this environment. Clearly, his home run rate isn't suffering. from not hitting many fly balls. So, you know, I don't know that he can sustain a bat pit. I'm pretty confident he can't sustain a bad bit up around 400. Pretty confident he's not going to hit 347 all year. But if he hits between 280 and 300 with the kind of power he's shown, that's certainly something that you're going to be happy to put in your lineup every week.

And given the state of outfield right now, I have him in my top 20th position as well. And we mentioned last week, I haven't been in my top 10 at first base. I feel fine about it even though, you know, there are some obvious things. There are some obvious arguments to be made that he's overachieving. For Jared Walsh, Scott, you touched on this, but his last 18 games coming into Monday, he had a 26% strikeout rate. So you're right, that is creeping up a little bit.

And I also noticed he has struggled against lefties at a 612 OPS entering Monday night's action against left-handed pitching. So we say this a lot of times about sell high camp. and that it's the emphasis is on the high and a lot of people, I assume, got Jared Walsh as probably a bench bat coming into the season and they're probably just reaping the rewards now at

whether it's first base or outfields. He has been great. But I think if you can sell high on him, I would. Would you guys trade Walsh for Luis Castillo? If you can make that happen. I would not. I would. I think I would do it. Scott and I are going to have just whatever

question it is about Luis Castillo. I will say yes, he will say No. Probably. Stimbing, it's thinking highly of Louis Castillo. Maybe you wait until after Castillo starts in Corris Field because the price might go down even more there. Yeah, I moved Cass-I actually have an exact ranking for you now on Castillo.

It was kind of hurried just so I could have Kelnick moved up in my rankings. I moved Castillo down to 34th at starting pitcher. So behind guys like Julio Arreus, Max Reed, Ian Anderson, Bundy and Gosman, who we talked about yesterday. Yeah, that's where I am with Castillo right now. All righty. Chris, oh my goodness gracious, from Monday. Yeah, I'm just going to give up the ghost on Mitch Keller here.

I said on yesterday's show he'd been alternating good and bad starts, and he was due for a bad start. The problem is, I think moving forward, he's probably due for more bad starts than good starts. three and a third, seven hits, seven earned runs, two walks, two strikeouts. Just like technically has a four-pitch arsenal, but I'm not sure he really has any pitches right now. He throws his fastball, but it's not good. His curveball and slider just haven't been what I hope they would be.

I still had hope. I'm officially giving up that hope. Hopefully this means that he does what Corey Kluber did when I officially gave up the hope and rattles off a couple of good starts and gives me a little more hope. But I'm giving up on Mitch Keller. I had kept him on my bench on a couple of leagues. He's gone. Wish he had started Sunday before waivers ran.

Mitch Keller is rostered in just 19% of CBS leagues. So probably the deepest ones out there, some Dynasty League, some NL-only leagues as well. Probably want to hold on to him in those formats just in case the off-chance. He gets traded. That's probably the best possible thing that could happen for Mitch Keller.

Though I can't see the pirates giving up on him. just yet. If you have them in any type of standard league, which I can't imagine you would, you can obviously get rid of Mitch Keller off of your fantasy team. For my oh my goodness gracious, I want to talk about a pitcher's duel, which coming into the season, if I told you this was going to be a pitcher's duel, you probably would have laughed at me. Kyle Gibson going up against Alex Wood in San Francisco on Monday night, Kyle Gibson just keeps chugging along. Six endings, one run, six strikeouts. He now has seven straight quality starts. The ERA is down. to 2.28. The whip is down to 1.04 for Kyle Gibson and mention it every time he's out there.

The inclusion of this cutter, which he doesn't really throw that much. It's like it fluctuates. I think it was today he threw it like 8, 9% of the time. Sometimes he gets it up to 15%. But I think the inclusion of this cutter for Kyle Gibson has kind of helped everything else in his arsenal play up. So he's been great. Can't say anything bad about Kyle Gibson at this point. And then Alex Wood on the other side against the Rangers, seven innings. One run, seven strikeouts. Starting to give you some volume now as well. 13 swinging strikes on 99 pitches.

Two earn runs or less in all five starts. Who do you guys have more confidence in moving forward? Because I think it's pretty close. I like both guys, Gibson or Alex Wood. I think it's Wood. I like Wood more talented. I think Wood has the higher ceiling, but he could just break.

You know, we've seen that from him so many times. Yeah, but any pitcher could break. I'm not going to hold that against him. Yes, but I mean, Kyle Gibson does have durability going for him and Wood definitely doesn't. So if you're talking about trust, I would say I trust Gibson more, but I want Woodmore because I'll, you know, in all but the deepest of leagues,

I'll usually shoot for the upside. Promote a few things here early on. Make sure to check out our fantasy baseball today newsletter. You can find it at CBSports.com slash newsletters. You can sign up for all of our newsletters there, but specifically fantasy football today, which Chris writes and fantasy baseball today. Dan Schneier and myself,

we tag team that bad boy, and we give you the latest news every morning, waiver wire options, trade targets, streamers for every single day, and it's 100% free. So go to CBSports.com slash newsletters, just punching your email address there, and you will begin receiving it. The link is also in the podcast,

description. And as always, if you enjoy the pod, please feel free to drop a five-star Apple podcast rating and leave a question in the review. We'll answer it on a future podcast. And speaking of questions, we are going to stick around a little bit tonight after we actually finish the podcast and we'll answer some of your YouTube questions. So thank you to everyone out there supporting us night in and night. We usually go live around midnight Eastern time, which is just crazy. But that's the nature of baseball in general. So we'll stick around here for 10, you know, 10, to 15 minutes after the podcast and answer some of your YouTube chat questions as well. Some news and notes, Jacob de Grom and MRI revealed no structural issues or long-term concerns,

though he will be placed on the 10-day IL on Tuesday with right side tightness. It seems like he's always kind of dealt with things similar to this, the past couple of seasons, whether it's like a back or a neck thing or an oblique thing for Jacob de Grom. Even with that, since 2017, Jacob de Grom has the same. second most innings pitched in baseball. Overall,

is this good news for Jacob de Grom? What do you guys think? Yeah, but it kind of played out how I was thinking it would yesterday.

So I'm glad to hear it. I mean, obviously MRI didn't turn up anything major. And they're giving him a chance to rest, which is probably for the best, if you want him to

stay healthy for the majority of the season. So I think, I think it, it, it's exactly what I wanted to hear. Very nice. Yeah, we did have a grade-to-trade question from Jordan

regarding Jacob de Grom. 12-team heads head-to-points league just traded away. Jack Flaherty and Wascar E-Noah for Jacob deGrom. Yeah. Yeah, I do that. A B and a points league? B-plus. B-plus. All righty.

Is you know a RP eligible or no? I don't believe so. I don't think so. I think as a sell high candidate, you're getting Jacob deGrom back. I wish Jacob deGrom wasn't hurt. I feel probably a little less confident than Scott does right now, but it is certainly as positive news as you could hope for for, you know, your number one starting pitcher going on the IL.

Cody Bellinger posted a video of him running sprints on Monday as he recovers from a hairline fracture in his left fibula. He remains without a timetable, but this is obviously a positive. update there. CJ C.J. Cron was placed on the 10-day injured list with a lower back strain. Framber Valdez could throw a bullpen in Houston this week before beginning a rehab assignment in the near future. Some good news there on Framber Valdez. Kegan Aiken was recalled by the Orioles, but will fill a long relief role for the time being. The Rockies and Padres were postponed on Monday. The teams will play a doubleheader on Wednesday. Denelson Lamette will start on Tuesday.

eligibility note, Nixon Zell now has six games at second base, so if you only needed five to be eligible in your league, Nick Sanzel will have second base eligibility. And if you need 10, he is working his way towards getting that. As long as Joey Vado is out, I think there's a good chance.

Nick Sanzel will get that pretty soon. Some prospect updates. Well, I was going to let you know that Jared Kelnick was crushing it, but we already talked about him. So Marlins' outfielder, Jesus has been very, very bad in the majors thus far. but a former not top prospect, but...

He was the top, like, 60, 70 guy. Top-ish prospect. He is 15 for 27 with three home runs at AAA thus far. The raise Vidal Bruhan is 10 for 22 with four home runs and one steal, which I find interesting because he was more of a speedster. That was basically his number one tool was that he's fast. And now he's hitting home runs. I think this is the most he's ever hit at a single stop.

no, he had five and 95 games in 2018. Yeah. But yeah, this is, he has 23 career home runs in 405 games. He has four in his first six this season. I don't know what ball they're using down in the minors. It's really awesome that these are things that we have to enter into our calculations. But I also don't think there's any ball that could like four home runs and six games isn't real, but it's not fake either. You know, like, it doesn't necessarily mean he's having a power.

breakout, but he is super, super fast. The only concern, I guess, would be, would the raise actually call him up before Franco if that came to it? I picked him up in Towed Wars, which is a 15-te-te-team mixed league. Obviously, I couldn't pick up somebody like Franco, but I decided I'd rather have, based on this hot start and that it's at AAA, I'd rather have Bruhan than somebody like Jeter Downs, who's not off to such a hot start, or I don't think,

Jared Duran was an option. I think he was already rostered. But yeah, that's kind of the range I was thinking for Bruhan being a pickup. And, you know, I didn't get the impression from the scouting reports I had read that it was like a Nick Madrigal situation where they really don't see him developing power at all.

Like, they could see him being like a 12 to 15 homer guy in the majors, like, I don't know, Jose Reyes or Raphael for call or kind of that kind of profile for Vidal Bruhan. but frankly, I'm never surprised when a hitter develops power. Like, it's just, even with production going down, I mean, there's still, like, there's still this kind of baseline expectation that if you're an everyday player, you're going to hit 20 home runs, right?

Yeah. So, Vidal Bruhan, and I think what helps him is that he's played both second base and every outfield spot so far in the minors. So definitely fits that Tampa Bay-Rays mold of being a versatile. player thus far. Brandon Lau, Austin Meadows, you guys are officially on watch because Fidel Bruhan and Wander Franco are coming soon. The other one, Wander Franco, wanted to mention he's

7 for 23 thus far with two home runs and one steal at AAA and Elliott Ramos for the San Francisco Giants is 9 for 21 with two home runs and two steals. He is at double A as of now. A few other standouts from Monday. I just wanted to quickly mention Scott, your boy, Tyler Naquin, don't drop him yet. He's coming round. He started eight straight games. He has four hits, including two home runs over his last two games, 57% rostered. And Nick Senzel is two for five. He went two for five with a double and two RBI on Monday. Scott, who would you rather roster between those two Tyler Naquin, Nick Senzel?

I haven't looked at Senzel in a while. He's been in and out of the lineup so much. I'm kind of just giving up on until he gets hot. The underlying numbers for Senzel are much better this year in terms of expected stats, and his plate disappointment has been, he's making a lot of contact this year. Yeah, he is. So I think I'm going to say Senzel and just hope he stays put together

at this point, though it does seem like Naquen's actually been the more consistent starter of them this year. That may be changing. I mean, we're seeing Senzel play the infield some. I was reading. And the return of Akiyama, you know, in the last couple days, that does raise

a few more outfield questions, I guess. But I've seen one of the Reds beatwriter tweeted out that Winker, Jesse Winker was taking ground balls at first base. Joey Votto is down, obviously. So I interpret that as they, with Votto being out, especially, they want to keep Nick when they want to keep four outfielders in the lineup, basically. And whichever ones can play the infield, we'll get to play at some. Tyler Malley, who started that game, was at the Pirates 5 and a third,

earned four walks, seven strikeouts, 13 swinging strikes on 96 pitches. His ERA is 3.00, but he has only gone more than five in seven tries. So, Malley, he struggled with control a little bit. It's been inconsistent for him. He's been good. It's been decent on a per inning basis, but just really not giving you a lot of volume there. Ryan Malkassel. Chris, if he was dropped, should you be looking to add him?

He has 57% rostered his last 15 games. a 308 batting average, two home runs, and one steal. I think 57% rostered sounds about right. That's five outfielder leagues mostly. I don't know if he's ever going to be a three outfielder guy because he doesn't steal a lot of bases, and the strikeout rate just kind of makes it prohibitive to start him in a points league.

Yeah, 31% strikeout rate for Ryan Mountcastle supported by a 19% swinging strike rate which is sixth highest among qualified hitters. He didn't really strike out this much in the minors, so it's kind of weird that Ryan Mountcastle is striking out this much, but it's not great. Luis Garcia up against the Angels,

five and a third, three earned seven strikeouts. Scott, he has a 3.60 ERA, 1.07 whip. I know you like him, and he has SPARP eligibility. He's been very good, but I think between, there was an update recently

that Jaco to Rezi could be on a rehab assignment soon and Framber Valdez. This is probably, bad news for Garcia, right? Yeah. I mean, provided nobody else goes down between now and then, which you know, a lot of times

these problems solve themselves in that way, I would imagine as things stand right now, Garcia would be the first one out. Yeah, should somebody be ready to take his place, but look, he's in line for another start this week. I imagine he'll still

have a spot next week. And I don't know. Maybe after the two-star week, you drop them if you need a roster spot to play with. But this first start, getting seven strikeouts out of him with the hope of another start next time out, you know, fell short of a quality start. But I think it's a good start to the two-star week for him. Jose Al-Tuve has five straight multi-hit games, and just like that, he is batting 294.

Luke Weaver up against the Marlins, six and a third shutout, four hits, and six strikeouts. the ERA is down to 5.00. He's 22% rostered. Chris, anything to see here or just dominated the Marlins? There are a lot of guys in like the 80 range starting pitcher, and I think Luke Weaver's one of them. And occasionally those guys take a big step forward and, you know, join the 50 range. But, you know, he's got to show more than that before he's anything more than a streamer.

Let's take a quick break. but when we return, we will hit the state of fantasy baseball. We'll do that next here on fantasy baseball today. So Chris wrote an awesome article on the site right now. You can find it at cbsports.com slash fantasy slash baseball. And you pointed out, Chris, that this is the year of the pitcher. There are currently 45 pitchers who have thrown at least 30 innings with an ERA below 3.50 and 30 with an ERA below 3.00.

at the same point in the league calendar in 2019. That was 39, so six less in 2019. And then that was under 3.50. And then 20 who had an ERA below three. So 10 less there. And you go on to point out that only 90 pitchers this season have thrown more than 30 innings. Yeah, because the minimum qualifier there was 30 innings to this point in the season. And that was compared to 119 at the same point.

back in 2019. So I guess my question for you is, while pitching on a per-ending basis, is way better this year. The numbers bear that out. There's no denying it. The volume is way down. So you point out in the article

that you should be trading pitching, but with volume being down as much as it is, I'm wondering if you should actually do that. What do you think? I'm not saying you definitely should be trading pitching because, look, ultimately, like, when I pointed out earlier that that 15 out of the top 20 players,

in the rotos scoring formula are starting pitchers. Well, that doesn't actually mean that 15 of the 20 best players this season have been pitchers. That just means that based on last year's run environment, they have been, based on this year's run environment, a 3.00 ERA pitcher is good, but it's not elite.

That's been an elite mark in recent years. This year, it's, you know, a top 30 starting pitcher or something around there. So, you know, everybody's dealing with lower volume. There may be some teams that can, you know, consistently roll out five, six guys on their fantasy roster who goes six innings consistently. But I think more than ever, like Tyler Malley not going five in a only going five innings more than once and seven tries, that still makes him a top 40 starting pitcher for me. Just because, you know, there aren't that many guys.

I think you can give the guys who do get that extra inning boost an edge. but, you know, I think one of the things to take away from this is we've talked about how many more good starting pitchers there are this season. It's all relative because a guy who we might look at a guy who has a 375 ERA and a K per 9 right now and say, he's a pretty good pitcher. That's actually kind of a below average fantasy pitcher so far this season, which sounds insane. But it's true based on the way this season has gone. If you compare it to, I looked at NFC main events, just because it's 45 or 50 leagues that are, the data is public available. It was easy to pull.

The average first place team right now has a 282 ERA. The average 10th place team, these are 15 team leagues. So the average 10th place team has a 363 ERA. If your team has a 363RA and a 15 team league right now, you're in 10th place in ERA. It's just crazy. It's crazy to hear it. In 2019, the average first place team had a 357 ERA. That's how much things have changed over the last couple of seasons.

And so you just have to keep that in mind when you're looking at valuing players and how to value guys moving forward, how to value guys in trade. And it might make it so that pitchers can be overvalued in trades. That's not to say, like a two ERA pitcher is always going to be good. You know, John Means, if you think he's going to be really, really good moving forward, I don't necessarily think you need to trade him. But if you think John Means is more of a 3-5 ERA guy, you might be able to convince someone that that's a borderline ace in an era where it really wouldn't be.

So I think, you know, part of the article was just pointing out that, hey, things have changed so much. Maybe not everyone's aware of it. Scott, where do you think things go from here? Because obviously, we've mentioned this a few times that the league batting average is 234, strikeout rate is at an all-time high. But with that, that means, as Chris pointed out, you need more pitching to compete in those categories.

I would assume that there's going to be regression coming, just natural regression, because guys like Carlos Fordon are not going to pitch to a sub-1 ERA. And Kyle Gibson is not going to pitch to a sub-3 ERA. A. all year, and Alex Wood's not going to pitch you a sub two ERA. So would you be looking to sell these starting pitchers? I mean, those are just a few names.

Trevor Rogers comes to mind, Kevin Gosman, Sean Mania, Tyler Malley, even to buy those hitters with proven track records that are off to slow starts just because things are going to even out. And I assume, like, as the weather heats up, like, the ball is probably going to fly a little bit more as well. So where do you think we go from here? I'm reluctant to really act on this info right now, which I understand could keep me in a hole if I'm in a hole.

But I'd just be afraid of overreacting and shooting myself in the foot. I mean, it's kind of like, it's kind of what I was saying about Jared Walsh, but applied to the whole league. What standard of hitter is actually trustworthy right now? and would you give up a quality arm for them? It does seem like there are more quality arms, certainly more usable arms, than the past couple years

than I was expecting coming into the year. For pitching to have improved on the whole, I feel like that would be applied more evenly than it hasn't. And right now you get, there's kind of an inversion where some of the guys you mentioned, and Frank, who nobody expected anything from or not much of anything coming in, are standing out beyond

some of the more proven types of the position. And so even if some of these league-wide trends remain, that inversion doesn't seem like it's going to be lasting all year. So I'm still having a hard time knowing exactly precisely which pitchers I can trust and precisely which hitters I can trust. I don't know if I explain. that very well. Well, you know, to me that kind of makes it sound like you should be trying to

sell high on the Carlos, Carlos's Rodon and Sean's Mania. Yeah, but for, for whom? Like, what hitters, like the reason I have Jared Walsh as a top 20 outfielder right now, even though I pointed out, okay, so there are some signs here that maybe he can't sustain that. It's just because, like, nobody else is good enough to rank ahead of that, you know? Yeah, I mean, I think it's like, Lordus Gariel has been awful. I would trade Carlos Rodin for Lordis Gariel because I believe Lordis Gariel will be a very good hitter moving forward. And I think there's, I think Rodon has innings limitation concerns

that are very real. I think injury risk is obviously a big concern with him, given that he's had Tommy John and shoulder surgeries in the past. And he's just not going to be this good forever. He's going to be good. But most of his career has been defined by, kind of disappointing. So I think that's a perfect spot to...

I think if you... I'm sure you have Carlos Rodin in a few leagues. I think you could go right now and make that offer in every single one of your leagues and that deal would go through. Let's do it, man. I need Alfielders. I think it would. Like, to me, that's like,

dang, you're underselling Carlos Rodon there. But I guess that's... That's what I'm getting at is, like, I don't... I think Lordus Gurriel is going to bounce back, but like right now he should not cost you Carlos Rodon. I agree with that. I agree with that,

Scott. And I would shoot for hire. I would shoot for much. Like, I would not be surprised if you could turn Rodon into Marcelo Zuna right now. Or Kyle Tucker, which. Sure.

Sure. I would love to do those as well. It sounds unrealistic coming into the season based on, you know, where each person was drafted. But, I mean, I mean,

but even then I hesitate. I'd hesitate because I don't really know who Marcelo Zuna is. I definitely don't know who he is in this new environment. And like, it's just so home run heavy because the home run rate is still pretty good across the league. It's like 2018. It's down from, yeah, it's the fifth highest home run per nine ever, but it's down from 2019 and 2020.

What really stands out to me, and I'm, you know, I didn't dig deep as deep into the numbers for as long as Chris did earlier today when he was writing that article. But 283 Babip league-wide, 283 BAPIP, it's pretty much always between 294, and 300 and it's 283 right now. Yeah, it's been

there's been a decline over the last couple years. I think it was like 290 last year, maybe a little lower. Yeah, and then obviously that was and like,

I think, I think what we're seeing right now is just, it's a confluence event of events that have made hitting and, you know, both in terms,

specifically batting average, I think is the, the main, you know, thing that has been victimized, has made it much harder to do. You have a league record high strikeout rate, which coincides with an increase in

average fastball velocity for the 16th season in a row. And I get that. Continued career or league-wide lows in fastball usage. But what would explain the babb? Like is everybody just got better at playing defense? Increase shifting. And I think the two biggest things. Is it that much higher this year compared to the previous few years?

No, I think it's, there's two things. It's increased shifting, which has just been an ongoing trend. I think the thing this year, and that would be the next thing that we'd want to talk about from this piece would just be the new ball. And the effects that that is having both on, it's amazing. Major League Baseball seems to have created the worst of all worlds with the new baseball because it's easier to throw harder. And it moves more out of a pitcher's hand because it's a lighter baseball. and it gets hit harder but doesn't travel as far. And so what you've seen is a lot of,

you know, I mentioned earlier that 30 degree launch angle below 105 miles per hour. Last season, this was just in April and this is from that Fangraph's piece. It was something like 45% of those batted balls were home runs and like 30% of them were outs. This year, 45 of them are out, 45% of them are outs, 30% are home runs.

So it's not even like home runs are turning into doubles. Home runs are mostly just turning into outs so far. And I think that's probably helping drive babb it down further than where it's been. Well, is this kind of- Batting average is lower than it ever has been. Is this kind of... Go ahead. Is this kind of the comeuppance to the fly ball revolution?

Because if it's getting hit harder but not traveling as far, that would seem like it would benefit, ground balls and ruin fly balls. Like non-home run fly balls are just, I don't know. I don't, what's the batting average on fly balls versus ground balls?

And is that out of our... It depends on whether, if you include home runs, then the batting average, I think on both is pretty similar. Babit on fly balls is obviously lower, but that's because home runs don't count as balls in play.

I think part of the problem is ground balls in theory. in that environment should be more valuable than they would be otherwise. But with the increase of shifting, I think that is also taking that away. And so you see a lot of teams are doing a left-handed, or Ted Williams shift on right-handed hitters now. John Carlos Stanton gets played that way a lot.

I just saw it while I was watching. I think the Marlins and Diamondbacks game against Hazus Aguilar. And so it's just part of the problem is when there are more strikeouts, even if home runs don't travel as far as they did or home runs happen less often, it still incentivizes teams to play for home runs when strikeout rate is that low

because one out of every four plate appearances ends with a strikeout now. You can't string together enough hits to score without hitting home runs. This is a confluence of long-term and short-term trends that have created a league that is increasing, increasingly reliant on home runs, even if, like we're seeing this year, home runs don't happen as often.

And I think that's bad for baseball. I think it makes for a really weird fantasy environment. And I think it does make for more of a gap between the haves and have not to hit her. I think, you know, your John Carlos Stanton don't seem particularly affected by this new baseball. The last few points I wanted to make on the ball, I feel like I saw this in. in spring where they said they could see the ball being affected eight to 10 feet on a fly ball with the same launch angles,

same average exit velocity from years past to this year. And if you think about eight feet, that kind of sounds like it would be the difference between some of those wall scraper home runs turning into fly balls on the warning track, which would also explain batting average and Babbitt being down because those fly balls are not going over the wall anymore.

They're turning into not lazy fly balls, but essentially, yeah, kind of if teams are playing you deeper in the outfield. Anyway, so that all kind of explains that. I didn't want to get into some statcast fun. We don't really have much time left, but let's talk about a few players that I think are underachieving right now in terms of expected weighted on base average, according to statcast, which takes into account quality of contact plus walks plus strikeout. So basically your plate discipline and your quality of and a few names that all rank inside the top 20 right now in terms of the biggest underachievers in baseball in that category.

Dominic Smith is the fourth biggest, Kyle Tucker, the 11th, Alec Bohm, the 12th, Gary Sanchez, the 16th, and Yasmani Grandal, the 20th. So five names that, I mean, Boem isn't really hurting you that much, but the other four, yeah, they're kind of hurting you right now. So who of that group would you want to buy? Are you most confident in bouncing back? Tucker. Yeah.

We talk about all the time. We talk about Bilos. I feel like I've mentioned Dominic Smith a lot. I'm just kind of waiting for it to come to fruition. But everything in the underlying numbers say that he should be a lot better than what he's done thus far. Yeah. And somebody dropped him in one of my shallower leagues. I picked him up.

I don't know. I mean, part of the thing, I think he's only started. started against one left-ander this year. The Mets have faced so few left-handers, but that's... I wonder about that, too, particularly since he's not hitting well, if it could become a playing time issue,

holding him back on top of everything else. So I don't know. I don't have a ton of confidence in any of these guys, even Bome, really. Tucker's the only one I do. But, you know, in the right league, obviously, I'd buy on any of them being better than they've been so far.

just not necessarily good enough that you're going to regret giving them up, I guess. Yeah, there are a few factors that can particularly contribute to a player underperforming their ex-Woba. I think one thing is that this year, while they have recalibrated, there is still an 11-point gap between league-wide ex-woba and league-wide Woba. Point-0-1. So, you know, that's not a huge difference, but it's not nothing. so you do have to take it with at least a little bit of grain of salt. But then I think the factors that you can keep take into account that might lead players to underperform would be one left-handed hitters

who are pull-prone on the ground makes them more shiftable. I think all hitters now who are more pull-prone on the ground, generally speaking, can fall into that category. And players who are especially slow. This is something that, like, Miguel Cabrera has actually had really good expected numbers the last couple of seasons, but because he's so slow, defenses can play him so deep in the infield,

and it's just going to kill his babb on those grounders. So it seems like, Dominic Smith is 21st percent on sprint speed. He is left-handed. He's struggling when the shift is on this year. He's being shifted a little more often. I think he will be better moving forward, but I think the, like, 900 OPS guy,

we thought he was in 2019 and 2020, even adjusting for the new lower standards. I think he's probably more like an 800s OPS guy. It seems like Gary Sanchez and Yasmani Grandal would fit that mold as well, Chris, as just guys that are super slow, obviously. So I think that makes sense. On the super high end, look,

you're not going to be able to get Freddie Freeman for cheap, but a few people have emailed in saying, oh, what's going on with Freddie Freeman? He's batting 217. He's got a 295 expected batting average. He's slugging 467 with a 572 expected slug. So better days coming for Freddie Freeman. A few of the biggest overachievers in terms of expected,

weighted on base average thus far. Randy or Rosarena, the ninth biggest overachiever. He currently has a 33% strikeout rate and a 62% groundball rate. Dylan Carlson is 23rd in this category. Tim Anderson, I was surprised to see. He is 25th in terms of the biggest overachiever in expected weighted on base average. Where do you guys think of Rosa Raina goes from here?

He's such a weird player to figure out because we had such a small sample size last year and he's great in the postseason against some of the best pitchers. But if the strikeout rate and ground ball rates come closer to where he's been at in his minor league career and where he was at last year,

then this could actually, like, he might get better. But if they stay this way, like the numbers might actually go towards what they're expected to be. So what do you guys do guys? think about a Rosarena in particular. Yeah. I'm still a little optimistic.

I just think he's got such a talented bat. The ground ball rate is obviously concerning, but that does seem like the kind of thing that he could just adjust to and, you know, get back to a 50% ground ball rate, and I think he'll kind of take off. You know, it's interesting. He is just spraying the ball

all over the field right now. His pull rate is down to 33%. he's hitting it straight away 47% of the time. So, you know, that can make your BABIP overperform a little bit, especially with his speed. So, you know, it's possible that he's not overperforming quite as much as it seems, but he needs to hit better moving forward. There's no question about that.

I'm just, I'm willing to bet that he probably will hit better than he has. A few pitchers who I found in this category, in terms of expected ERA in particular, which takes quality of contact allowed into account. The biggest underachievers, aka players that you should look to buy, Hazers Lizardo, who you probably get for dirt cheap

because he's on the IL right now. Jameson Tyone, who we've spoken up as someone who you can buy before people realize this. Dylan Bundy, we spoke about yesterday. Griffin Canning is 28th in this category. Luis Castillo.

Though his expected ERA is not great, it's like 4.4 or something. He's just so high because his actual ERA is over six. So they are saying he has been a little bit unlucky in that category. And then some of the biggest overachievers in terms of quality of contact so far this season, Wascari Noah, Michael Paneda, and Marcus Stroman. So those are some of the names, Chris, let me know if you agree with this, where when you're

talking about trying to sell them for hitters that I think are going to bounce back, the Charlie Blackman's, Anthony Rizzo, Paul Goldschmidt, they're boring, but they have proven track records and I think they will be better. If I can trade Enoa or Paneda or Stroman for someone like that, that's what I would be looking to do. Yeah, I think Enoa is one of the more obvious Selle High candidates

a starting pitcher right now. I think he's been very impressive. I think there's a lot to like about him, but he has not gotten punished for his mistakes as often as he probably should have. He kind of reminds me a little bit of Denelson Lemmet. He is throwing the, actually a lot

46% slider rate, getting a ton of whiffs on at the fastball. Not quite as good. The results haven't been bad so far, but he's the kind of guy who, when he gets a strikeout, things look great. He doesn't allow a hit. When he doesn't get a strikeout, the ball tends to get hit really, really, really hard. And so I just think worst days are ahead and actually that kind of pitcher tends to underperform their peripherals more than they tend to overperform.

so I think moving forward he's probably more like a 4-5 ERA guy than even a 4-ERA guy. I did have some bullpen updates from Monday that I wanted to get to. I should have mentioned these earlier, but for the Orioles, Cesar Valdez got his eighth save of the season. He has a 1.23 ERA. He has been great. Jake McGee picked up his ninth save of the season for the Giants

with Tyler Rogers being used in the eighth inning. Joachim Soria for the Diamondbacks was pitching in the eighth in a five-zip game. He allowed two runs. Stefan Crichton came on in the ninth for his fourth save of the season. So it seems like that's the formula for now. Crichton will remain the closer for the Diamondbacks,

even with Joachim Soria back. Reisley-Glaecius picked up his fifth save, I believe it is, for the Angels. And for the... Six save. Six save for the Reds. Amir Garrett recorded five outs across the seventh, and eighth inning in a blowout.

He allowed one hit and one walk. I feel like we still have no clue who is going to get the next save for the Reds. No, but Doolittle hasn't worked in a long time, and they haven't had a save opportunity in a long time. So I don't know. Maybe just a coincidence. Interesting.

The Reds and the Royals, man, have been, gosh, two of the tougher ones to figure out so far this season. To stream or not to stream for Tuesday, Logan Webb versus the Rangers, Adbert Alsely at Cleveland J.C. Brewbaker versus the Reds. Brady Singer at the Tigers. Quanghan Kim at the Brewers

and Jordan Montgomery at the Rays. Alzalai, Singer, and Montgomery. Yep. Yep. Yep. No, I'm... Yeah. Yeah. I'm gonna do that. Yeah. For Wednesday, not the greatest group.

Matt Harvey Revenge at the Mets. Zach Davies at Cleveland. Casey Mize versus the Royals. John Gantt. at the Brewers, Andrew Heaney at the Astros, and J.Hap at the White Sox. I mean, realistically, the only one I'd even think about

is Heaney at Houston, and obviously that's a tough matchup. So, you know, if strikeouts and wins are what you're chasing there, fine. But if you are in WIP, you're looking to preserve, maybe not.

I could see Davies and Gant having good games. Yeah, I could see it, but do I want to gamble on it? I would say it's 45% that they have good games. 38% that they don't. 12%. And those are pretty good odds you're giving them. I would not agree on those odds.

Fair enough. John Gant, number one fan, Chris Towers. I feel like whenever I bring up John Gantt, he's not bad. He's got a pretty good career ERA. But, man, he does it with some... He does it with some really... really questionable underlying numbers. You have questionable underlying numbers.

I'm sure, I'm sure I do. I'm sure I do. Leave John Gant alone. Team name Tuesday from Paul. Betts you do little. Maybe they're saying, is that, what am I missing? Yeah, I bet you do little. Oh, all right.

I thought there was something more. Like mooky bets, you Darvish, and Sean do little. Sure. From Dan. Kiroloff Ice. Yep. From Luis. May the dust in you be.

May the dust in you be Is this a thing? I don't know What is dust anyway? There's no player named Dust. Dustin May? Because there's a, okay, dust in, Okay, may the dust in you be.

Dustin may you, I don't know. From Chris, need an arc, Enoa guy. That's very good. From Stephen, Coors Against Humidity. Sure. Straw Maryfields Forever. Yes.

From Pat, magical carpenter ride. Definitely. From Charles. Fielder on the roof. Yep. From Kevin, the Golden Guriel starring Ryu

McClanahan. That is excellent. That is phenomenal. Cron Temple Pilots. Yep. Big Bad Bad Dew Daddy. I'm always going to be here for any reference to the

swing dance craze, big bag, voodoo daddies. Jagged little Pilar. Excellent. Yes. From Finn, John means bishness. Sure. Urchella's unfortunate coals. Maybe. Kalenik scope.

Sure. You're a wizard, Harry. I did not get these, but I'm sure you guys do. Jack. Carl Souser. No, no, no. You're a wizard, Harry. I know, I was talking about the upcoming ones.

From Jack, coal sulser of milk. A cold saucer of milk. Like a kitty. Just describing an object. Coal flying. Like a wheel of fortune clue. Coal flying sulsar. I don't get that one.

Like flying salser would maybe, but like a cold flying saucer, I don't get. Why would they be cold? Maybe they use cold fusion as a form of propulsion. From Cody, plead the FIP. Yep. Creatures of Babbit. That's very good. From Matt, Sean Murphy Bunting.

Yep. Yep. From Tim. This one's for Scott. The professor and the great Antone. I don't know that I get it. I think it was from the prestige they wrote in. The professor.

Okay. Yeah, okay. Those were kind of the magician names they were going by. Yeah. Okay. Sorry. Sorry I didn't get the reference to my favorite movie. The professor is apparently Kyle Hendrix. That's his nickname. Referring to the prestige characters. All right. If you are here watching on YouTube, stick around.

We'll answer some of your questions on the podcast side. We're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching fantasy baseball. Today will be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.