Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨Josh Hader Signs with the Astros! - Emergency Podcast (1/19 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 20, 2024

Josh Hader has agreed to a five-year, $95 million deal with the Astros (3:00)! ... Ryan Pressly has next to no value now (5:30). ... Will Hader definitely get all of the Astros saves (10:10)? ... Who are the top remaining free agent relievers (13:25)? ... What happens next for the other teams linked to Hader (16:50)? To display your continued support of the show, please vote Fantasy Baseball Today in the Sports Podcast Awards in the "Best Baseball Podcast" Category https://www.sportspodcastgroup.com/sports_category/best-baseball-podcast/ Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. After a huge lull in free agency, we finally have some action as Josh Hader is signing with the Houston Astros. Welcome in to an emergency edition of fantasy baseball today. Frank and Scott here on Friday, January 19th, to break down this Josh Hater move. But also, where do things stand with the other teams that were linked to Josh Hater in the past? The Rangers, Yankees, Cubs, Phillies. We'll talk a little bit about those bullpens as well. well. First and foremost,

congrats to the Astros, their fans, Josh Hader. It's an awesome move for all parties involved. Except for the fantasy baseball players, I think this move sucks for fantasy and we'll get into it in just a second. Scott, a five-year, $95 million deal for Josh Hader, the second largest contract ever

for a relief pitcher, just short of the $102 million that Edwin Diaz received from the Mets. Fun fact, this is actually Josh Hader's second stint with the Astros. He was traded away from their team to the Brewers in the Carlos Gomez trade back in the day. How about that? Anyway, the Astros now have one of,

if not the best bullpen in all of baseball, Scott. Brian Abrayu, Ryan Presley, Josh Hader, seventh, eighth, ninth. Hater's ADP is 48 in early ADP as the third closer off the board behind Devin Williams and Edwin Diaz. I would assume this move doesn't change much for Josh Hater's value.

what do you think? No, I mean, I think that's a clear top tier at relief pitcher. Those three closers just what they deliver strikeout wise sets them apart, not to mention track record because it's volatile role, obviously, and these guys have held it down for a while now. I do prefer a hater to Edwin Diaz, just given that Diaz is coming off an injury that cost him an entire season. but that was true even before Hader signed with Astros,

and I don't know, maybe now that he does have a team, we'll see it reflected in ADP. Ultimately, it doesn't matter that much. It's a top tier, those three. And I would be, if I am somebody who's going to invest heavily in closer, which I'm not, I would be pretty much equally satisfied with any of those three. Yeah, it was a huge bounceback season for Josh Hater. last year with the Padres, a 128 ERA 110 whip that comes one season after, a 522 ERA and a 128 whip back in 2022.

For whatever this is worth, over the past three years, the Padres actually had more save opportunities than the Houston Astros. 205 for the Padres, 191 for the Astros. The Astros are a really good team. The problem is sometimes they just blow everybody out and it kind of limits some of their save opportunities. but if we're talking about ratio, strikeouts, and, you know, 30 to 35 saves, obviously Josh Hader isn't that mix. I agree.

He's in that top tier. Why did I say that I hate this move for fantasy? What is so awful about it? Well, Scott, we lost ourselves another top tier closer. We were talking about forehand. I called Ryan Presley elite. Maybe he's not elite, but he is a very viable closer.

He was ranked and being drafted as a top 12 closer in fantasy, and he's gone. He has next to no value unless you play in saves plus hold leagues but in standard leagues 5 by 5 roto with saves or head to head points leagues where you start to relief pitchers

Ryan Presley has nothing. I moved him outside of my top 350 players in fantasy because there's nothing there. So I would have much rather Josh Hader gone to the Rangers or the Yankees or the Phillies where there aren't other

great options. Some of those are okay or you know in the Phillies case, it's kind of up in the air right now. But I just hate the fact that we lost another top tier closer in Ryan Presley. Yeah, I get that. You had to figure no matter where Hater signed, he would displace whoever was installed there. And we're at, I don't feel like we've talked about this enough yet. We've arrived at a remarkably stable place as far as the closer scene goes.

So many, almost every team. Almost every team has a clear frontrunner for saves currently. And that frontrunner is on merit. It's like he's actually good enough to be a closer. It's not like he was just forced into the role because the team had nobody else. There are a handful of teams for whom that's not the case. The athletics immediately comes to mind,

White Sox, Rockies, Royals. For each of them, I could still name who's probably a front runner for saves. And this is a much better situation at Relief pitcher. than we found ourselves in in recent years. I mean, at this time a year ago, I feel like there may have been only a dozen closer candidates who, or saves candidates who we felt good about. And now there's twice that many.

So, yeah, losing Ryan Presley, that makes one fewer. But unless it's a keeper scenario or a scenario where you drafted way early for some crazy reason, we're not going to miss Presley that much just because there are so many other. closers out there. I mean, you call Presley a top tier closer. Okay, since I just said Devin Williams, Josh Hader and Edwin Diaz are their own tier. Let's call Presley a second tier closer. My tiers officially are up on the site right now, so be sure to check that out. That second tier, that near elite tier that Presley was a part of, there are still eight pitchers in it, even without him, eight relievers in it. So it's, I don't think we'll feel the loss of him

that much. We had to lose somebody. We had to lose somebody. We had to lose. somebody, even if Hayter had gone to the Rangers. We'd lose Jose LeClerc. The Yankees, we'd lose Clay Holmes. The Phillies, I think Jose Alvarado's a strong closer candidate there. And I understand those guys aren't as established as Ryan

Presley. Presley, there are a couple tiers lower than he was, but they are clear frontrunners for saves. There are pitchers who are going to be drafted in all roto leagues. So we were going to lose somebody no matter where Hayter went. Presley was one of the better ones we could have lost. But we'll get over it.

See, that's why we need to hear it, Scott, because you are much more emotionally grounded than I am. You see, you talked a little bit more sense into me. I feel a little bit better about it. You're like, look, Clay Holmes and Adbra Alese, they could be all right. There are still some other free agent relievers out there. I guess we could see what happens with those names.

But let's take a quick break when we return. We'll talk about the rest of the top free agent relievers and what we think is going to happen with the rest of those bullpins, even though you mostly talked about it already, Scott. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in, Josh Hader to the Astros, huge deal, five-year, $95 million deal.

Scott, it sounded like you wanted to say something. I did. I wanted to jump in real quick before we moved on from the Astros to address an issue where if you go online right now, you'll see a lot of chatter about, ah, it doesn't really matter who's working the ninth inning. Those three relievers are so good. Well, of course, it matters to us in fantasy.

And I can confidently tell you right now, it's going to be Josh Hater. Who is saying that? Who is saying that? Well, I think just the fact that they are so good that that Brian Abrayu is so good that Ryan Presley was a fine closer, as you said, Frank,

that they both throw right-handed while Josh Hader throws left-handed. I think there are a bunch of analysts types are saying that. Not necessarily fantasy analysts, but just baseball minds in general are kind of speculating the different ways the Astros can go

with the back end of their bullpen. I don't think it's going to be an issue as far as we're concerned. I think it is possible because Hayter does throw left-handed that there may be times when he enters prior to the ninth inning and then maybe doesn't stay in all the way through the ninth inning, which might allow Brian Abrae and Ryan Presley to grab a few saves here and there. But I don't think it's going to be frequent enough that it should really impact the rankings in a minute.

meaningful way. I'm just saying, go ahead and put that worry out of your mind. It sounds like it didn't even cross your mind, Frank. No, it did not cross my mind one bit. I'm looking at the Astros bullpen now. The only other lefty they have in there is a gentleman named Bennett Sousa, and I don't know anything about him at all. So I guess we'll see how he performs. If you want to look at it from that perspective that, all right, he's really the only high leveraged lefty in the bullpen. All right, but I still think we're kind of grasping at straws here. And not us. When I say, you know, we, it's whatever, the collective baseball industry. I don't know. It seems like people are kind of reaching here. I don't think you give a reliever five years, $95 million unless he's going to be your

closer. Worth mentioning, okay, they do have a new manager now and Joe Espada, but he's someone who has worked under great managers in the past, Dusty Baker, AJ Hinch, and those guys typically always had just one main closer. So I would imagine that's going to be the move here as well. And like I was saying it before the break, the trend seems to be, and it's a very abrupt shift, but the trend seems to be more toward having a true closer again. I don't know if managers got burned out trying to play the leverage game. But yeah, things seem remarkably stable within the closer ranks right now. And that's because managers have kind of last year, even, even, Even ones like Kevin Cash and Rocco Baldelli, who were pretty flaky in years prior.

It seems like everyone altogether at once decided that our best reliever, yeah, we pretty much want to reserve them for the ninth inning still. Could be famous last words there, Scotty, but I hope you're right. And I hope that remains the case. It was in 2023. I hope that is the case for closers and the relief pitcher market here in 2024. speaking of the market, the other names that are available in free agency right now, Robert Stevenson, when he got shipped over to the Tampa Bay raise last year, completely changed his pitch mix, started throwing a cutter and was amazing.

He had something like a 24% swinging strike rate with Tampa Bay last year. He remains a free agent. He's been linked to some teams. He's been thrown out there with the Yankees. If he went to the Yankees, I don't know if he would close, but obviously he's a talented guy, and I think, you know, we are, going to be interested to find out where Robert Stevenson lands. Ultimately,

our role as Chapman obviously has the name value, the history of being a closer, but kind of fizzled out with Texas. Is a team going to sign him to be the closer? Probably not. Hector Nerris has been linked to both the Rangers and the Yankees. This is an interesting one, Scott, because he does have closing experience.

He's coming off an amazing season with the Astros last year. I think there is a chance that if Naris went to either the Yankees or the Rangers, he could get a shot at closing there. There's a chance. I don't think he would sign with either of those teams to be the closers. I think his arrival would just muddy the waters where even though there appears to be a clear front runner now, Clay Holmes for the Yankees, Jose LeClerc for the Rangers, they don't have a tight grip on that role. You know, they've had their struggles in the past.

They've lost that role at times in the past. Josea LeClerc didn't really pick it up until the postseason, though obviously a few years ago we saw him closing for the Rangers. So I do think it would muddy the waters if Hector and Eris ended up there. But I don't think there's any reliever, whether it's Stevenson or Nerris or Chapman, who is going to sign to be a closer, at least not like a surefire declared closer going into the season.

because presumably those guys are going to contenders, and I feel like the contenders all have a reliever who, an incumbent closer who's at least good enough to get the first crack at the role heading into 2024. Like I said earlier, you know, the Royals with Will Smith, the White Sox with Gregory Santos, the Rockies with Justin Lawrence, even like the Angels and the Tigers with Carlos Estevez

and Alex Lang respectively, the A's with who knows. who knows who the favorite to close is there. Those teams could use a clear upgrade at closer. I mean, even the Padres, they've got Yuki Matsui penciled in as their closer right now, but they don't have an obvious frontrunner either. But I'm not sure anyone out there would...

Okay, so most of those teams I listed are non-contenders, right? Which is why I don't think the big relievers are going to sign with them and step into the closer role. On the contending teams, maybe you could consider the Padres that. I don't know. That's about it. That's about it. And like I said, between Robert Suarez and Yuki Matsui, you could make a pretty good case that the Padres already have their guy themselves.

Yeah. And they, again, they made multiple moves this offseason, right? They signed Yuki Matsui. They also signed Wusa Go from the KBO where he was one of the top closers in Korea as well. So like they've already made their moves. I don't see the Padres doing anything else. Let's quickly run through some of those teams, Scott. And just I guess give out the favorite there. Yankees very clearly, it's Clay Holmes for now, right? Yeah, though he kept losing the job last year, so that's why you could, you could foresee a scenario where they bring in somebody

who messes things up a little bit. Yeah, and behind Clay Holmes right now, they have a returning Scott Fross from Tommy John surgery, Tommy Canley, who's pitched well, but not really anybody who has major closing experience in the past. The Cubs, it's Adbert Ows-Lai, can he stay on the field, that's been an issue for him, looks like he has pretty good stuff.

Yeah, Alzali seems like the favorite there, right? Yeah, I actually have him in the third tier, another big tier that includes names like Pete Fairbanks, Craig Kimbril, Ryan Helsley, and Kenley Janssen. I have Albert Alzalai tiered with them. He got more than 20 saves last year. We forget how long he was in the role.

At least I do. For the Rangers, it's Jose LeClerc. They did sign Kirby Yates this offseason who has closing experience, in the past, looked all right with the Braves last year. My guess is it's Jose Leclerc to start, but maybe he doesn't have the longest leash. Probably not, but he looked good in the postseason, obviously. Help the Rangers win a World Series.

And then with the Phillies, you mentioned the name, Jose Alvarado. He's had ridiculous stuff for a long time. I have no doubt that he could be a fine closer. Under Rob Thompson, the Phillies have kind of done like a closer by committee. Craig Kimball, I guess, was mostly the guy. last year. But with Alvarado being a lefty, it wouldn't surprise me if someone like Jeff Hoffman,

who is coming off a fine season himself, like a really, really strong season for Jeff Hoffman, or Orion Kirkering, who was a closer in the minors and, you know, has this ridiculous sweeper. Maybe those guys could mix into that closer mix as well.

Yeah, I'm a little uneasy about just anointing Jose Alvarado, the closer for fantasy purposes. He is, I think, clearly the Phillies best reliever. he's been different teams best relievers over the years and has never gotten a chance to be the solitary closer. Just to give you a number, just put some numbers on the description there for Jose Alvarado, 174 ERA and 13.9K per 9 last year. I mean, that's Josh Hader like. Yeah.

So even though he throws lefty, Alvarado could be a dominant closer if they let him. And I think why there's some reason for hope here is because they do have another late-inning left-handed option the Phillies do in Gregory Soto, who of course has some closing experience himself. So I'm penciling in Jose Alvarado as the Phillies closer. I would draft him ahead of both Clay Holmes and Jose LeClerc, who do have more assurances in the role, but I don't trust them as much to hold. on to the role as I would Alvarado if he were to get that chance for the Phillies. All right. Once again, Josh Hayter to the Houston Astros on

a five-year, $95 million deal, the second largest contract ever for a relief pitcher. Ryan Presley no longer has the job. I was distraught. Scott, not as much, but he did talk some sense into me. That's the latest

here on the closer market. We're going to wrap there for Scott. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we'll be back again next week. Bye-bye.