Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨Juan Soto Traded to the Yankees! Craig Kimbrel to the Orioles & More! (12/7 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 7, 2023

Juan Soto has been traded to the Yankees (0:45)! ... What about the Padres return (14:55)? ... Eduardo Rodriguez signed a four-year deal with the Diamondbacks (25:21)! ... Craig Kimbrel is set to be the closer in Baltimore (29:26). ... The Yankees also acquired Alex Verdugo in a trade (33:40). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. And there it is. After weeks of speculation, the New York Yankees have acquired Juan Soto. Let's go. Welcome in to an emergency edition of fantasy baseball today. Very late on Wednesday, December 6th, Frank Stamphill here with Scott White and Chris the Welsh. Kind of funny how this all broke down.

We're getting ready to record our outfield prospect podcast. And boom, we get hit with all this news at once. We'll be breaking down the Juan Soto deal. and much more. We just heard that Eduardo Rodriguez sign a four-year deal with the D-VACs, so shout out to Welsh. I know he's excited about that one. And Craig Kimbril to the Orioles, which happened earlier in the day. We'll break it all down.

Let's start with the Big Dog. What are the actual details of the trade? The Yankees acquired both Juan Soto and Trent Grisham in exchange for Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Randy Vasquez, Johnny Brito, and Kyle Higashioca. Juan Soto on a Hall of Fame path career 284, 421, 524 triple slash. That's a 946 OPS, 154 WRC plus.

He has now been traded twice in the past 16 months, entering a contract year here, now with the New York Yankees. And as you pointed out, Scott, recently, Soto did not hit so well in Petco Park out there in San Diego. He now goes to Yankee Stadium where it's a very small, sample size, but he has four career homers in seven games in Yankee Stadium, short porch in right field. What are your immediate thoughts, Soto, to the Yanks? Well, this seemed like the dream destination, given his skill set. Really, I'm just happy to see Juan Soto out of San Diego, because to put actual numbers on it, and I'm going to throw a bunch

of numbers at you now, so sorry about that, but they're, they're important to hear. So, Juan Soto, in San Diego, a career 231 hitter with a 783 OPS, including just this past year, obviously where I got the majority of its bats in San Diego, 240 with an 827 OPS. That doesn't sound like Juan Soto, right? On the road this past year, so I was hitting 240 with an 827 OPS at home.

On the road, Juan Soto hit 307 with a 1026 OPS. That sounds like Juan Soto. doesn't it? 23 of his 35 home runs were on the road. So it's pretty clear San Diego wasn't a great fit for Soto. Yankee Stadium, on the other hand, you know, the most famous right field fence in baseball, he's going to be taking aim at that now.

And I got to think, I mean, really, the data essentially shows that there isn't a more extreme park shift in his favor than that. So Stackcast had Yankee Stadium as the second best home run venue for left-handed pitchers over the past three years while San Diego was 26th

in terms of home runs for left-handed hitter. So yeah, Soto is going to get to play in the most favorable place he's gotten to play before. And so it's exciting to think what he could do with those numbers. I will say, because we generally,

this is a number we generally look at when a player changes venues like that. The expected home run number for Juan Soto, expected home runs by park. It's something Statcast does. If you put a player in every single venue in baseball, how many home runs would you've hit? It's actually lower for Soto at Yankee Stadium this past year,

and it's been lower at Yankee Stadium than his actual home run total every year, but the pandemic shortened 20. 2020 season. And so that that kind of made me do a double take. And basically, I think it's BS. I think it's BS. Like I said, Statcast itself calls Yankee Stadium

the second best home run park for left-handed hitters. And yet, I took some time to look up some left-handed power hitters. And almost all of them, their expected home run total at Yankee Stadium, was less than the home run total they actually delivered. So I'm just ignoring that. You do a park overlay of Juan Soto's spray chart at Yankee Stadium. It looks like he's hitting a bunch of more home runs.

A lot of his outs are turning into home runs. I'm not going to go so far as to say he's a 50 homer guy. Juan Soto does put the ball on the ground a lot. But could he get to 40? He just hit a career high 35 playing in San Diego where he didn't hit that well. Could he get to 40? I think that's certainly within the realm of possibility. And more than anything else, I think Juan Soto, you can pencil him in for a 300

batting average again because San Diego was just killing him as far as that goes. So, bottom line, Juan Soto, I thought, was definitively a second round pick in San Diego. Now, you got to think about him in round one. You know, it gets pretty murky after the big base dealers going five-by-five leagues, but Juan Soto versus Yorna Alvarez versus Aaron Judge versus Corey Seeger, Matt Olson, Jose Ramirez. if you're valuing both durability and position scarcity over anything else, he might just move to the top of that group, which would put him as a late first rounder for me.

Yeah, and Juan Soto was already part of that, I guess, first second round glob, a mini glob, we might call it, with all those names that you just mentioned, Scott. And again, he might move to the top of that group now. And as much as we cite stat cast and expected home runs, and we use it for so much, I completely agree with you. Just cite up the Ron Burgundy Giff.

I don't believe you. Because the expected home runs by ballpark, I'm just not buying that. You mentioned the park change going from the 26th best ballpark in Petco for left-handed power to the number two ballpark in Yankee Stadium. I do think that we could see a career year in terms of power here for Wansoto, entering a contract year. Sounds like he's looking for something in excess of 450, 500,

billion dollars next off season. So you bet you he's going to be going for it and he should have a monster year here in Yankee Stadium now coupled with Aaron Judge. I mean, what a lineup that should be up there at the top. Welsh, let's get your thoughts here on Juan Soto as well. Scott just talked about the ADP for Soto, early ADP 14.7. He's going just behind Judge, just behind Jose Ramirez. But I think you could make that case that he pushes up ahead of some of those names and now he's kind of getting into the territory of a Freddie Freeman, a tray Turner in like the mid to late first round range. What do you think about Wantsoto? Yeah, I agree. My mock draft looking a little bit better there, Scottie, after getting

Trey Turner and not so won Succo in the second round in that last mock that I had. Yeah, I completely agree with you guys too. I think it's interesting the expected home run total being lower. I would maybe speculate that that might be like a launch angle situation. 6.7 was his launch angle this past year. He's only had one time ever where it's been into the double digit. So lofting the ball might be part of it. But I mean, you're coming off of like an expected batting average, higher than your average, career high, hard hit percentage, which is phenomenal. Second, hardest max EV that he's put up in a single season, the best average EV that he's had. He pulled the ball the second most he's done in his career and he's had the second least soft hit

percentage according to fan graphs of baseball. So the guy is hitting the ball crazy hard in a ballpark that works in his favor. Maybe it's going to take just a tiny bit from a stat cast perspective. Maybe it's just about getting the ball in the air a tiny bit more in that right field. By the great, this is a phenomenal situation for him. The run support around the team, plenty of opportunities. You're not weighed down by the ballpark factors. I think, you know,

if stolen bases were a bigger part of his game, like I don't know how, let's even say it was like, you know, 15, maybe 20, like he would blow past Kyle Tucker. There's a part of me,

as I've been doing a lot of my outseason research, that like, I've been having this debate between like, Corey Seeger and Trey Turner. And obviously like, Trey Turner provides these like really great elite, elite-ish stolen bases. They're not so elite anymore with how high they're going.

But like with what Corey Seeger does as a hitter, and giving you like three to four elite categories, that might just be worth going around some middling categories in a couple other spots because we think this is a great hitter with stolen bases. And I'm saying this to all say, there might be a case that you look at a guy like Juan Soto who's supporting hard hit metrics,

like they blow up at you in a ballpark that's friendly. And you go and compare him against a guy like Kyle Tucker, who we all love, by the way, and is in a good spot. But Kyle Tucker versus them, I think the biggest thing you would say is like, well, Kyle Tucker gets a stolen basis. Maybe it doesn't matter. You know, maybe Juan Soto is going to hit a whole other realm of production in a contract year in a great ballpark.

And now you're going to get four elite, elite categories from him in this new environment. I don't know, man, I do think it pushes him into the first round. I don't even think that's a question anymore. It's going to be about how excited do we all get with this new hitting environment. But there's so much that supports, you know, taking that risk if you would like to. It's something I've been debating all day. Where do I want to slot Juan Soto now? Because before this, you could hold the batting average against him.

It just his profile depended too much on him being a 300 plus hitter. And he hadn't done it back to back years. And playing in San Diego seemed like a big reason why. So you could hold that against him. You could put him at the back end of possible first round hitters. The real problem here is that there are, in my mind, 17 first round caliber hitters. And that's before you even get to Spencer Strider and Garrett Cole,

factoring into that mix to make for 19 potential first round players. And so you're going to have to disfavor somebody who you think is really, really good. And so what are you going to choose to disfavor? and I could see disfavoring Juan Soto because the kind of production we're talking about compared to what he's done the last two years is theoretical. He's been a fantasy monster before, but he's never hit 40 home runs before like we're talking about now

and it's been a couple years since he hit 300. So that's theoretical and maybe you're going to disfavor him because of that. I think that's fair. Or like I said earlier, are you going to disfavor Aaron Judge and Yordaun Alvarez for injury risk? are you going to disfavor Matt Olson, Jose Ramirez, Corey Seeger because they're not outfielders, outfield being pretty clearly the weakest position. To put specifics on this, because I have to commit to ranking him somewhere.

Currently, I have Juan Soto behind Aaron Judge and Corey Seeger. I don't feel great about that. I'm not sure what I would feel great about. But currently, I'm giving Aaron Judge, I'm favoring him because of what he did two years ago. And Corey Seeger, I'm favoring him because I think he's so, so safe for an elite batting average. But that means I'm slotting Juan Soto ahead of Yordaun-Alvarez, Matt Olson, Jose Ramirez, guys who I think are first-round caliber players. What a good first round. I mean, just what a good first round.

You're not talking about the top end of the first round, by the way. Scott's talking about the top of the second and the end of the first round with all those names. It's crazy. Even saying where I'm slotting him, he's 13th overall in my rankings. Yeah. So that's not even technically a first rounder for Juan Soto. And it feels like the wrong decision no matter where I slot most of these players. You know, it's just kind of going on a hunch.

And I have one of my rules in five outfielder leagues, which we're mostly talking about roto leagues here, is when in doubt go with the outfielder. And in the end, that may be what I do. I may end up moving Juan Soto ahead of like Corey Seeger. But yeah, that's still an on. ongoing debate for me. The bottom line is he's definitively part of that group now and before I think he was clearly behind it. Yeah, as of now, and maybe I'm just kind of wrapped up in Juan Soto because

the trade just went down. I think I would push him ahead of Corey Seeger. As much as I love Seeger, the guy just has such an extensive injury history. So I think I would favor Soto there. The question that I was going to wrap up with on Soto was would you guys take Judge or him? And it sounds like Scott, you would take Aaron Judge still. Welsh, would you take, you're on the clock, late first round, you're taking Judge or Juan Soto? Yeah, at this second, I'm taking Judge. But, and like when I said the Tucker stuff,

I'm not saying that's affirmative. I'm just saying that's an argument we can make. Maybe I'll work myself through staring, you know, every single day at stats and just like talking myself into a circle. But like, he's good enough to be in that conversation. At this moment, I'll take Judge. Soto helps judge. There's more protection.

Yeah. I know, line of protection. That's the thing you could talk about. but you run RBI support. That's more support for a guy like Aaron Jones. So I would take him, but it's very close. And just don't be shocked when people are taking Soto six or seven. It's not unwarranted.

Yeah. One last point, if I can about this. Okay, two points. If I can't about this. Juan Soto was the 14th best hitter in Roto leagues last year, even with the disappointment of him hitting only 275. He was the 14th best hitter. Now, some of the other hitters we were talking about ranked behind.

him because they missed time. I understand. But like, we're debating how high we can get him in the rankings. And yet he finished as the 14th best hitter last year before the improvement of Yankee Stadium. So that's one point. Second point, we haven't mentioned points leagues, which is Juan Soto's better format anyway. I have him fourth overall in there.

I was fourth overall. I was going to say top five. He's got to be top five in that format. He was the sixth best hitter in points leagues last year. Yeah. So, yeah, he's got to be top. Oh, Frank, Juan Soto or Corbyn Carroll points leagues? Points League?

Yeah, I'm taking Soto. Yeah, I think Soto's in there. Hate to say that, boo. Yeah. We'll talk about the Yankees outfield alignment in just a little bit because there actually was a trade that happened on Tuesday as well regarding Alex Verdugo. But let's talk about the other side of this trade,

what the Padres are getting in return, because really, the Padres and Yankees have been a perfect fit all along because they needed pitching depth in the worst way. You looked at roster resource. recently the back half of that rotation was filled with frankly no names players we haven't really heard much about. They have Darvish, they have Joe Musgrove up at the top. But now they could fill out some of that depth with getting a Michael King, a Drew Thorpe,

Johnny Brito, and Randy Vasquez. I would say all four who are likely to make starts for the Padres here in 2024. Let's start with Michael King, who has bounced back and forth as a reliever and a starter. But of course, we remember how he finished the season. And that was as a starter. His final eight starts, a 1.88 ERA, a 110 whip, 48 strikeouts over 38 in a third innings. That included a 13 strikeout performance against the Toronto Blue Jays on September 20th. I looked into the arsenal, mid-90s fastball for Michael King.

He's got that amazing sweeper. And prior to being moved from Yankee Stadium, I wanted to see if he can get left-handed batters out because I was worried about home runs in the Yankee Stadium. he has a change-up, which is devastating against lefties. So I love the pitcher. Scott, it just comes down to how many innings are we going to get from Michael King? Because we haven't really seen him do that over the course of a full season yet. The early ADP is 152.5, and it is a positive park shift going from Yankee Stadium to San Diego.

Yeah, it is. I don't know that that is the biggest concern. The biggest concern is the one you've raised, which is durability. Well, durability and, okay, he's made eight starts. Only two of them were six innings or more. He dominated in that eight-start stretch, did Michael King. Let me see if I can pull up the actual numbers here. They're in my article.

Just got to find them. Okay, so in those eight starts, Michael King had a 188 ERA, a 110 whip, 11.3K per nine. Really impressive stuff. And what was impressive even beyond that is that his velocity held steady. even as he did stretch out to six and seven innings eventually. He maintained his velocity that he had in relief, which you rarely see when a pitcher makes that shift from the bullpen to the starting rotation,

has that four-pitch arsenal that should play well in an extended role. So I think Michael King as a starter makes a lot of sense, and obviously we saw him have immediate success with that. Will it translate over a full season? It's a big question. And again, the bigger one is even will he hold up, because what's looking at his health history, the big red flag for Michael King is in 2022.

He suffered a stress fracture in his elbow. That is a usage-related injury. That is his elbow couldn't withstand the forces he was putting on it. And now you're asking him to take on a starter's workload. I think it's fair to be skeptical that he can do that. now I have him as a top 40 starting pitcher in fantasy because I am intentionally emphasizing skills over everything else

of starting pitcher and specifically strikeout potential over anything else so I am I'm ranking Michael King and son my top 40 with that asterisk that I'm ranking somewhat unconventionally but like I want to want to take him as more than my fourth starter.

If I'm taking him, 39th where I have him, I'm going pretty heavy on pitching in that draft. Yeah, the early ADP for Michael King, as I mentioned, 152.5. He's going just behind Jordan Montgomery and just ahead of Merrill Kelly.

So it depends on what you're looking for at that point in the draft. If you want some stability, a higher floor, an innings eater type, I think Montgomery and Merrill Kelly kind of fit that bill. If you have three starters or even two that you feel really strong about,

then I think you can take the shot on Michael King as maybe your SP3, likely your SP4, as Scott just pointed out. Welsh talked to me about Drew Thorpe, who is one of the fastest rising pitching prospects, goes over to the Padres in this deal. 23 years old, big dude, 6'4, second round pick in 2022, had a huge year in the minors,

252 ERA, 0.98 whip, 182 strikeouts, over 139 and a third innings. And I'm going to preface this by saying, I am not just saying all this, I'm a Yankee fan and I'm trying to poo poo, Drew Thorpe because he got traded. But I have read and I have heard some things about him. There are some questions because his main pitch is a changeup.

Sometimes that doesn't translate as well going from the minors up to the majors. His fastball kind of sits in the low 90s. So I do think there are some questions there. Welsh, what do you think about Drew Thorpe and his potential impact as soon as this upcoming year, 24? Yeah, I think there's some questions. Like you said, this is like a fastball slider change up guy. predominant strikeouts are going to be on that change up. The fastball probably needs to tick up a little bit.

I would tell you, like, you're not wrong about, you know, hey, predominant change up, but you're going to an organization that's got like Joe Musgrove and Darry. I think there's like really good pitching development. And Joe Musgrove specifically is someone who has tinkered and worked well with the changeup that I feel pretty positive about that. Big Body guy led the minor leagues. I don't know if you actually said that, led the minor leagues in strikeouts.

He also led in K minus walk percentage. So he had a 34% K percentage, which was not tippy top. That ended up being fifth overall in the minors. But he led in K, and you take away that walk percentage, which is a really impressive number. Because I'd also point out, like, the next big group of players, you start to get into like complex and like Dominican Summer League. So he was well above the next set of guys. He's a control pitcher who I think is going to a phenomenal organization. that's going to be able to work with him.

And I think we are going to see him sooner rather than later. He ended up getting to AA. And as I said before, I think AA is the new AAA. As far as like once you get to double A, anything can go. Like he could be the starting pitcher for this team come opening day. I don't think that's crazy. The craziest part of it would be the innings, which he was able to accumulate just under 140 after getting 139 in the previous year.

So you look at that. That's a guy you could probably push to 160. That's very Tanner Bibi-ish with a great change-up. I'm here for Drew Thorpe. I think he was a great acquisition to add with Michael King. And the only thing I wanted to just add on the Michael King side, because I really do love him. You guys talked about those last eight starts.

Just want to point out he was a better pitcher as a starter than reliever. And that's like a, I mean, I know you guys kind of hit that home. But 76 strikeouts, 23 walks, and 64. innings as a reliever. He only walked nine in 40 innings as a starter while walking 51 or striking out 51. He had a better ERA as a starter. And this is a wild one. He had a 261 ERA through the first part of the order, a 257 through the second part of the order. Now, getting to the third part of the order is going to be the big task. But little innings management, you're good to go. You should be pretty excited about Drew Thorpe. I've got him almost as a top

50 overall prospect. And that says a lot for pitching. And seeing, San Diego, I think it only makes it a bit better. A couple quick thoughts on Thorpe that you didn't mention here. You did point out he got a pretty good workload in the minors, but what stood out to me throughout the season last year, when there weren't a lot of people talking about Drew Thorpe, he had an 11-start stretch in the Yankees minor league system where, hang on, let me count this up, six, seven, eight.

He had an 11-start stretch where, he went seven innings or more eight times in those 11 starts. Wow. And three of them were eight innings or more. Like you just don't see minor league pitchers do that. They really let him cook, you know? You know what this is like? This is like Brandon Fott the previous year who put up record breaking

innings and whatnot. They treated him just like Brennan Fott, who also had the lower-ish. Now, the difference is sweeper to change up and stuff, but not saying they're one-to-one, but just wanted to throw that out. The usage, this is a guy like you said, they let him cook, well said. So Drew Thorpe has workhorse potential here.

The concern I had with him also as he was dominating high A, he was doing it as a 22-year-old. And you thought, okay, he's just, he's a guy with a well-developed change up picking on younger minor leaguers. Maybe that's what's going on here. But he got the AA, as you pointed out, in August, it was just as good. In fact, his ERA at double A was better than a high A. So I think, I agree. Drew, Drew Thorpe, legit prospect and somebody who I think will have an impact for the Padres this year. And the Padres have been really aggressive in the past, right? Just think about all the prospects that they've had up on opening day in the past Fernando Tatis, which surprised people at the time.

CJ Abrams. That one didn't work out as well, obviously. Now Abrams is a lot better. But there's a chance. There is a chance at, what are we looking at? 23 years old. Drew Thorpe could be in the opening day rotation. And, yeah, I mean, the control is so good, the K minus walk rates. He gets ground balls, too. I mean, lots to like their with Drew Thorpe. I thought that the Padres did a really good job here and what they wound up recouping after trading, you know,

so many prospects to get Wonsoto initially. What does the Yankees rotation look like as of now following the trades? They have Garik Cole, Carlos Rodon, Clark Schmidt, and Nestor Cortez, who, it sounds like he had a shoulder procedure after the season ended and should be ready to go by spring training. They are meeting with Yoshinobu Yamamoto on Monday, as are many teams. So we'll see what happens there. But I have a feeling if the Yankees swing and miss on Yamamoto, they're not done yet.

They'll probably wind up either signing a starting pitcher or trading for someone. They're likely to fill out the rest of that rotation, I think, with somebody from outside the organization as of now. The Diamondbacks, your Diamondbacks, well signed Eduardo Rodriguez to a fifth. four-year, $80 million deal, and he just enjoyed the best season of his career, a 330, a 1-15 whip, and looked into the pitch mix a little bit. Not much has changed year over year through his four-scene fastball a little bit more last year, but it's mainly a four-team cutter, change-up, has a sinker and a slider that he like very scarcely mixes into that arsenal as well. It's not a huge change in terms of park factor. You know, people might remember Arizona a couple

years ago as, you know, this huge hitter-friendly park. It's not anymore. It's neutral. In fact, it even kind of leans, even pitcher-friendly. So I'm not sure that that matters much for him. The one thing that worries me in the second half, the control really got away from again, and that has been an issue for Eduardo Rodriguez in the past. Overall, what are your thoughts here on Erod to your Arizona Diamondbacks? Yeah, this is what they needed. I mean, the big thing. You can definitely focus on the second half. I tweeted it out, and that was one of the first thing someone brought up was talking about the second half. And it's like, okay, yeah, sure.

That is definitely something. Also, I throw out an odd thing was like the struggles also came right around like this. I don't want to. He had some stuff that he left for a bit. Like the trade thing kind of got to him. He declined the trade. I'm not saying that he let that get to him. But like there is a point that kind of points right around that trade deadline where the

struggles were starting to go on right in July and then a little bit in September. all of that aside, whatever. This is what the Diamondbacks needed. They needed a guy that can man into the six and the seventh, a guy that can be out there, a left-handed pitcher. Also, one thing I like about Eduardo with the Diamondback specifically, is that he had an under one home run per nine. I mean, you know, level down the homers a bit.

Trust the defense. This is a plus defensive team that they're going to put out there, and they just needed live arms. Eduardo is that. Is he the big strikeout pitcher? No, not. necessarily, but this is great team context. And I'm pretty hopeful of it. He had a, you know, three and a half ERA. His expected ERA was right around four, but the FIP numbers were right

around the three and a half range. To get a left-handed mid-rotation starter, it's tough to do. They paid up for a bit, but this is where they had to go. And sure would have helped them if they had made this trade at the trade deadline and got him in that World Series run. But this is, this is a good move. And I think it's worthy of bumping up that ADP, which I believe, is just inside the top 200. Very good team. Like, we have to wrap our heads around that. Very good team context for the Diamondbacks,

defensive support and offensive support. Yeah, you look at the top four in their rotation. Now, it's very formidable. Zach Allen, Merrill Kelly, Erod, and Brandon Fott. We'll see what they wind up doing with that fifth rotation spot. Maybe they solve it from within. They look to make another trade or sign somebody. We'll see what happens.

Scott Welsh mentioned the early ADP for Erod. It's at 194 since November 1st. He's going just after names like Hunter Brown, Braxton Garrett. Does that range sound right for Erod? Are you excited to try and draft him? What do you think? I like him quite a bit more than Braxton Garrett. You hate Braxton Garrett.

He was good last year. I like him. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I like him quite a bit less than Hunter Brown. Like, Edward Rodriguez is fine. I don't think this is going to be a transformative move for him.

He still managed to win 13 games with the Tigers last year. It's hard to see him surpassing that even on a better club. He did kind of fake us out thinking maybe he had reached a new gear early on with the Tigers before that finger pulley injury. He's thrown his cutter more, thrown the ball a little harder. But status quo in the second half. And I think he'll be fine innings eater to fill out the back-year fantasy rotation, not better than a streamer level pitcher in fantasy, but not by much.

I have them just inside my top 60. The next signing we saw was Craig Kimbril. He signed a one year $13 million deal with the Baltimore Orioles who will be without Felix Bautista, the entirety of the season. And Kimbril is not the pitcher that he once was. He's still really good, though. 326 ERA, 104 whip. He had 23 saves with the Phillies, some of the underlying stuff,

23.7K minus walk rate. That was 15th among qualified relievers. So still really strong numbers here from Craig Kimbril. Don't tell Philly's fans he's good. They won't like that. It doesn't go well. Everything I've read, Scott, is that Craig Kimbril is going to be the closer. Obviously, it makes sense.

He's a borderline future Hall of Famer in that role. So he will be the closer for ball sport. The GM said he is that he was signed to close. The early ADP before this was 216.6. I think there was maybe some indecision, not knowing what's going to happen. My guess is, I think he moves up about 100 spots,

which might sound crazy, but like the name's going around pick 120, 125. Tanner Scott, Kenley Jansen, Clay Holmes, Adbert Alzali. I was just about to say Kenley Jansen. That was the one I just sat on and I was like, ooh, I think that's probably the debate. I'm ahead of all those guys.

Kimberl should be either in that group or ahead of that group. Yeah, no. I think what you have to remember with this early ADP for these NFBC leagues, they're actual leagues. And so people can't afford to speculate on closer roles as much. So if a guy, if free agents out there, I imagine maybe even Josh Hater is going, maybe I shouldn't say that because it'll obviously be a closer. But if there's anybody out there who we think is going to be a closer,

if they haven't signed to be a closer yet, they're just going to get buried in ADP. And so that's what happened to Kimbril. I thought it was always likely he would sign to close somewhere. And so I had him much higher in my rankings, and I took them in our first mock draft. Pitching for an obvious playoff contender, we'll have a lot of save chances. We could approach 100 strikeouts,

which not every closer does. He could just, like, implode. He's been pretty unreliable in terms of run prevention from year to year because he loses command and it can get pretty close. ugly as Philly's fans will tell you in the NLCS from the NLCS this past year. But the skills are still there for Kimbril to be a really high-end reliever if he can keep things under control. So yeah, I think he deserves to be one of the top 15 relievers taken since we do have this assurance that he was assigned to close. And that's where I plan to take it.

You know, I'm going to throw this out and this might be a little dramatic here. but like I look at this move and I go, how can you tell me that the Orioles aren't going to find a spot to go and be aggressive? Like take your trade assets and you haven't done anything in the pitching market. There's not a lot that's available that you can do. You should be aggressive.

When Dylan Sees is available, when Corbyn-Berns is being floated out there, you go and invest like this when you have Yanir-Kanoe. You invest in the closer. Why? Is it just to protect your middling pitchers outside of Braddish? It's got to be to be making that run. with this young controllable stuff and you have got to make a move.

I would be shocked if this is not the precursor to them making an impactful trade. And I think it's a trade. There's nothing left in the free agent market for them to compete with. They should be competing for Burns or Seas or Glass Now or someone that we don't know about right now. Yeah, Glass Now might be a little bit of tough within the division. But Dylan Seas, we actually had some reports earlier that the White Sox are kind of pulling them back in a little bit. they want to wait to see which teams miss out on like a Blake Snell or Yamamoto, and then hopefully they could drive up the price of a Dillon C's in a trade.

So you know who would just look great in an Orioles uniform? Shane Bieber. I feel like Shane Bieber to Baltimore is something that could very easily happen. I think he's on the trade block as well. Great points by you. I think there's a really good chance that the Orioles do go out and make a trade for a starting pitcher. Lastly, it feels like this happened ages ago. It was just one night ago that the Yankees also acquired Alex Verdugo for three other pitchers,

reliever Greg Weissert and Prospects, Richard Fitz, 80 grade name by the way, and Nicholas Judas. Verdugo, kind of know what he is at this point. Solid batting average doesn't really do too much else. He hit 264, hit 13 home runs, 81 run scored five steals, a 745 OPS. A little bit better in a points league because he does make a lot. of contact. From a needs perspective, just for the Yankees, I think this made sense. They needed another lefty bat before Soto, and it adds another element of contact in their lineup. They have so much swing and miss. I think that all makes sense. Where does everybody play in the outfield?

That I'm not exactly sure of it. It sounds like Aaron Judge is going to play center field, which I don't know is the smartest thing to do. Scott, there's not, there's not much to take away here. Are you, do you have any enthusiasm about Alex Verdugo going to Yankee Stadium. I know they have the short porch, but like, he doesn't really pull the ball that much either, so. Yeah, you know, I didn't have much enthusiasm when this happened last night, but that was before I looked deeper into those expected home run numbers that we talked about for Juan Soto, because it was the same issue with Verdugo, left-handed hitter. Extreme park shift, you know, obviously, right fields don't get much bigger than Fenway Park and they don't get much smaller than Yankee Stadium. and yet his expected home runs for Dugos were less in Yankee Stadium than he actually hit last year. And maybe his really more of an up-the-middle approach.

He hits the ball to center field a lot. So he doesn't pull the ball a lot, and maybe that's part of it. But maybe part of it's just that the data's messed up. Like something's going on with that expected home run formula that is making Yankee Stadium appear to be worse than it actually is. We've already said second-best home run park. for left-handed hitters, also according to stat cast. So it doesn't make sense that so many left-handed hitters are showing up with low expected

home run totals there. In which case, okay, maybe Yankee Stadium will benefit Verdugo more than I thought. If you do the park overlay thing for him, for his spray charts, it also looks like he hits more home runs at Yankee Stadium.

That would have been more of his outs from this past year would turn into home runs at Yankee Stadium. So maybe we see him, get the 20 homers for the first time. I don't think the upside's much more than that for Verdugo, but that would probably take him from, you know, that would, that would probably make him a borderline top 30 outfielder as opposed to being like a top 50 outfielder. Yeah, I mean, if he can hit 275 with 20 plus homers, if he plays almost every day, the counting stats could be solid. Yeah, maybe I'm underselling Verdugo a little bit. The early ADP is 329 as the 76th outfielder

off the board. Again, I do think that'll jump up a little bit. Pete, there's a Yankees, you have to pay for players. And I think some people will get excited about the idea of Verdugo in Yankee Stadium as well. So my guess is he probably climbs up about, I don't know, 50 spots or something. He'll climb inside the top 380p when it's all said and done for Alex Verdugo. The other side of this, the Red Sox side, is that it opens up playing time for their prospects, which I think we should be very excited about. So, and we heard as much on Wednesday from their new chief of baseball operations, Craig Breslo.

Sounds like Williare, Abraeu, and Sadan Rafael are both going to get a lot of playing time here in 2024. Haven't even mentioned Jaron Duran yet, who has power and speed himself. Obviously, I think Yoshida is going to be kind of push into that DH role. But, well, talk to me about those two. Raphaela, I know he's got some power and speed. Great defender, so he should be in the lineup almost every day. and Williara Brayu really flashed down the stretch, hits the ball very hard. What do you think about those two for the Red Sox?

Yeah, I wonder if Brayu is going to be more that fourth outfielder, just get them where we can. But like, I think Raphael is a guy that they're going to want to get out there a lot. And I think this move not only improves the prospects of Jaron Duran for everyday playing time without question, which is exactly what we would want, but Raphaelah is somebody that goes from probably, you know, AL only leagues to like max relevance. He had 36 stolen bases in the miners, 20 homers, low K rates that then rose when he got to the majors.

But I think you're going to see a pretty steep decline. I think this can come back down because he had really had a 25% K rate was the highest he had. And that was at like low A. He had been running the 19 to 20% spot. So I think he can score some runs. I think this is a phenomenal spot. I think he's going to probably run crazy. Would not be shocked.

if this is a 1530 season. Now, that's crazy speculative. But I think that's the high-ins side if he's given regular playing time. So, Raphaelah, I'm excited about. And I'm kind of into Jaron Duran as well. I'm rooting for Williore Bray, though. I have to say.

I'm a fan. He hits the ball hard. He gets on base a lot. He is center field capable. Obviously, he's not the defender there that Raphael is. But they might stick Raphael is. from time to time. You know, he's basically capable of playing anywhere on the diamond.

And so I'm hoping a Brayu, I'm hoping a Brayu plays close to every day, because I think if he does, he'll definitely have value in five outfielder leagues. Well, see how that goes. There's also, there's that rumor interested in Lourdes-Guriel. Just want to throw that out that. The Red Sox are looking at guys like Lourdes-Guriel.

So you do that, that's one of your corner in fear, that's one of those, like, probably left field and a potential DH spot, which then you might be platooning Yoshita and a guy like Lourdes between DH and the outfield, and that leaves two outfield spots between Abraeu, Rafaela, and Duran. So that could muddy some of the waters. Just pay attention to what other moves they make.

Yeah, I saw that as well. There were some rumored interest in Michael A. Taylor for the Red Sox. Let's hope not. I'd love to see what the kids could do, Jaron, Seyana, Raphaela, and Willier Abraeu, hopefully for the Red Sox in 2024. We're going to wrap there. Again, the big news,

Juan Soto traded to the New York Yankees for a huge package of pitchers and just looking into things. Now, it does sound like Aaron Judge is going to play center field. We'll have Juan Soto and Wright and Alex Verdugo and left. Trent Grisham also came over in the deal. My guess is he's delegated to fourth outfielder duties. Lots of injury-prone players in that lineup.

There is a chance that he could work his way into an everyday role as well. For Scotty and the Welsh, I am Frank. Thanks as always for watching and listening fantasy baseball today. And we will be back again tomorrow with Outfield Prospects. We'll see you then. Bye-bye.