Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨Judge back to the Yankees! Kenley Jansen to the Red Sox! Contreras to the Cardinals! - Emergency Podcast (12/7 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 7, 2022

Aaron Judge is headed back to the Yankees on a nine-year deal (1:25)! Should he be the first player drafted? ... Was baseball mixing in bouncy balls again in 2022 (8:33)? ... The Red Sox finally have a closer again in Kenley Jansen (11:39)! ... Willson Contreras is jumping ship over to the St. Louis Cardinals (16:43). Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. Well, the hot stove is officially scorching. Welcome into fantasy baseball today, an emergency edition. On Wednesday, December 7th, Frank Sample, joined by Scott White. There is a lot to talk about. We're going to focus on three massive moves on this podcast. And then, of course, we will have another one later on tonight. But we're going to be focusing on Aaron Judge, who is headed back to the New York Yankees,

Kenley Jansson, who signed with the Boston Red Sox, and Wilson Contreras. Cubs fans, close your ears, close your eyes, headed to the St. Louis Cardinals. Ah, how dare he? Scott, the roller coaster of emotion that I have felt in the past 20 hours or so has been insane. We get the report yesterday from John Heyman

that someone named Arson Judge is close to signing with the San Francisco Giants. He quickly walked that back. Of course, you know, tried to do it over Because there is no arson judge. There is no arson judge. Yeah. He got a typo in there and obviously, look, Twitter's freaking out, the baseball world is freaking out.

Yankees fans, Giants fans, fantasy baseball fans, everyone's freaking out. And then radio silence, Scott, and nothing. I was so nervous, so scared last night. I couldn't sleep. And that's why I stayed up all night long. Woke up late. And then there you go. The good news that Aaron Judge is headed back to the Yankees on a massive deal.

nine years, $360 million. A L-MVP, we know he's coming off that historic season where he broke the American League home run record hitting 62 home runs, 3-11 batting average, led the league and run scored, tied for the league lead in RBI as well. Scott, I know that you are on record saying that Aaron Judge is your number one player in fantasy baseball. I would assume this only supports that.

Yeah, honestly, it didn't make a difference where he went for me. I heard when I got pushback for Aaron Judge is the number one pick. Oh, well, what if he signs with the Giants? What if he signs somewhere where they don't have as favorable of a venue for hitters as Yankee Stadium? Judge's power is such that to me that I didn't think that was an issue. But because I heard it from others, I am suspecting, might even say hopeful, that now he might get some more traction as the number one overall pick.

I don't know if that's going to become the consensus. I kind of doubt that. There's been such a push to fill stolen bases early in drafts in recent years. And even though Judge had 16 of those last year, certainly a decent total, he's not the sort of base dealer, obviously that like a Trey Turner

or even like a Jose Ramirez. So at least in five by five scoring where stolen bases are essential, it still might be a tough sell for people. Judge it, one overall. Points leagues, I don't even really understand the argument for taking someone other than Judge at the top. I don't think there is, especially somewhere that plate discipline matters so much. And we'll do a points league mock draft soon within the next week or two. So we'll get a chance to test that out. But yeah, all along I've had judges my number one overall pick.

Regardless of the scoring format last year, he was far and away, the number one player last year. And I think we're entering into an era where home runs are going to become more critical, more scarce, and stolen bases are going to become less scarce between the juiced ball going away. That, you know, home runs are on the decline because of that. And I expect the stolen bases to be on the increase with the rule changes that are set to take effect this next season. Most notably, the pitchers being limited to two pickoff throws per at bat, which is going to allow runners to get a huge lead after those two pickoff throws. And as we've seen in the minors when they instituted similar rule changes, stolen bases exploded. I expect that to happen in the majors as well. Just to put it in perspective, how much better Aaron Judge was than any other player in fantasy baseball last year.

According to the Razball player raider, Aaron Judge earned $62.9 worth of auction value. Again, nearly $63 worth of value in a 12-team Roto League. Paul Gulchman was the next closest player at $40.7. Nearly $22, over $22 worth of auction. value on Aaron Judge. So that's, of course, significant in its own right. I mean, he was 50% better than any other, more than 50% better than any other player, according to what was it?

That's the Razball player raider. Okay. What's also interesting about that, Paul Goldschmidt's not a big base dealer either, and you said he finished second. Yeah. So already maybe we're to a point where we're, even before the rule changes take effect and stolen bases explode, theoretically. across the league.

Already we may be at a point where we're overvaluating that. We're overvaluing that early in drafts. So, yeah, and the issue has been raised too, of course. Why should we believe Judge is going to repeat the season he just had, setting an AL record with 62 home runs? Some might argue a Major League record with 62 home runs, though the record book says otherwise. And of course, probably not going to happen.

You know, history is history for a reason, and it's unlikely judge is going to do that again. But the more significant number for our purposes than 62, I think is 16, which is how much Judge out homered the next closest guy, Kyle Schwerber. And a judge has always had this, like he's always been on paper the league's. Best power hitter by far. Top percentile ranking for average exit velocity. Ever since he broke into the league with 52 homers, by the way, as a rookie in 2017,

hadn't been able to get back to that a lot of the reasons because of injuries in the year's sense. But those exit velocity readings, which were kind of a footnote earlier during the juice ball era when homeruns were so easy to hit, becomes an essential skill when home runs are becoming much harder to hit when you have to impact the ball that much harder to get it out. It's showing more. I think this past year with Judge out-homering everybody else by 16 is really where we see that those premium exit velocities, those outlier

ex of velocities really take effect. And he's been so consistent with that over the years that I expected to continue. Not to the point he's going to hit 62 home runs again. But is there anyone that I could reasonably predict to hit even 50. His per 162 game averages for his entire career, Aaron Judge, 49 home runs. So he's like, like 50 should be about the expectation for him. And because he's now a good source of batting average hit 311 this past year, doesn't strike out nearly as much as he used to, because he's not a zero for steals, I don't even know that he needs to hit even 50.

I think 45 would be enough to justify him as the number one overall pick. Remember, as a 62 homer guy, he was more than 50% better than anyone else. So there's a lot of give there before he drops to being the second most valuable player in fantasy. I think those are all fantastic points, Scott. Again, even if the batting average comes down a little bit, his XBA was 305. I don't know that you expect that, but 280, 290 with 45 plus home runs and just the counting stats that come with Aaron Judge. Yeah.

I think he is well worth being in the discussion for being the top player drafted in fantasy baseball. If not the top, you know, he's inside the top three, no later than the top five, regardless of any argument that you want to make. Do one other thing that I will present to you, Scott. And this is just the latest in a long line of things to come out regarding Major League Baseball. There was an article that came out yesterday, a study done, according to insider.com, that

shows the Yankees were being given these quote-unquote Goldilocks baseballs which are more batter friendly with their weight profile, which means typically they just travel further. And they were being given to the Yankees, provided for, I don't know, entertainment purposes because judges chasing a record and that's going to help baseball and help ratings, whatever it might be, whatever the reason is, does that factor into your decision at all? maybe when thinking about any Yankees or maybe Yankee pitchers for that matter. Yeah, that's kind of a bombshell story that may get lost in the shuffle with all the maneuvering happening at the winter meetings,

the fact that, okay, it still looks like different consistencies of balls were being used last year and a disproportionate number of the more hitter-friendly ones were used in Yankees. games. And I mean, yeah, you could take a conspiratorial angle with that. And, you know, I wouldn't blame you. When it comes to evaluating judge, though, again, I don't think it matters that much because it's the data that points to him being this home run outlier. Plus, one detail in that article is that the vast majority of ball samples that they got were the deadened ball, were the deadest version of the baseball.

So if more hitter, if there were more favorable ones being used, if a disproportionately higher number of favorable hitter favorable ones were being used in Yankees games, it's not like it was going on over the full course or even the majority of the season. And a judge was on a crazy home run pace the whole time. time. So, yeah, I don't think it really changes my evaluation of him or any other Yankees. It did maybe wonder maybe a little about Garrett Cole, who was so victimized by home runs last year and whether that may have inflated his ERA.

But to be consistent, I'm going to say, for fantasy purposes, I'm going to discount that aspect of the story. I think the biggest takeaway for fantasy purposes, again, specifying that, is that, yes, the majority of the balls they tested were the deadest version of the ball. So even if getting complete uniformity in the baseballs is going to be near impossible, the trend is all in one direction, and that's to suppress home runs. So, yeah, I'm kind of taking this off judge specifically and looking at the broader picture, but I don't think that changes the way we should evaluate players in general for 2023.

All right, let's get into some of those other big signings here from Wednesday. Kenley Jansen to the Boston Red Sox on a two-year $32 million deal. Finally, the Red Sox have what should be a sure thing at Closer once again. And they've actually done a good job in general this offseason rebuilding that bullpen. They brought in Chris Martin, who's coming off a great year with the Dodgers as well. Kenley Jansen still has it. 3.38 ERA, 1.05 whip. 41 saves led the National League. There were only two closers with 40 plus saves in all of baseball last year.

One was Kenley Jansen. The other one was a manual class A. Swinging strike rate took a little bit of a step back, but the strikeout rate was still really good. It was actually better than it was in 2021. Scott, I still have the utmost faith in Kenley Jansen. I wouldn't mind getting him as my first closer

if you wait a little bit at the position. And I think the ripple effects are what also helps fantasy here, Scott, is that now we know, at least for the time being, Rysel Iglesias will be the closer in Atlanta, and Camilo Doval will be the closer in the Giants, because he was actually, Kenley Jansen was rumored to go back to both of those teams.

So just, it helps the closer market all around for fantasy baseball purposes. Yeah, it does, because I don't think anybody's going to miss Matt Barnes in that role, presuming he would have gotten the first shot anyway for the Red Sox. I was thinking the last time they had a reliable closer was Craig Kimbril back in 2018. So it's been a while since we really felt confident who was getting saves in Boston. Henley Jansen, I mean, he's the rare closer who may wind up in the Hall of Fame someday.

So ERA has been a little on the high side in recent years for him. I don't really think of him as a lockdown closer, but the volume is going to be huge. He's going to rack up saves. it's harder to find relievers who do that in the modern game. So I have him 11th at relief pitcher, 10th among closers, because Spencer Strider, of course, is in front of them as well in my relief pitcher rankings. So 10th among closers is Kenley Jansen for me.

Of course, I ranked him. I already had him ranked there. I expected he would sign somewhere to close. So I don't see any reason to move him up or down with this news. before him I have Ryan Presley and Jordan Romano and Felix Batista who I think peripherally look a lot better than Kenley Jansen at this point and seem just as certain for saves as him behind him I have guys like Ryan Helsley, Camilla DeVall who you mentioned

Paul Seawald's really good relievers who maybe aren't as certain of getting nearly 100% of their team saves so I think that's the sweet spot for Kenley Jansen I have Iglesias ahead of him as well. I should point out he is my sixth ranked closer, just ahead of Felix Batista, who I mentioned. And, you know, even when Will Smith was who Brian Snitker was turning to in the ninth inning, he's been a manager who's stuck with one closer.

And of course, Ryssel Iglesias has enough history in the role that I suspect Snitker will do the same with him. and he was amazing last year. Got off to a bumpy start, as I recall, but the final numbers for Rice of LaGlacius were about what we're used to seeing from him. 247 ERA, 0.97 whip, 11.3K per 9. He allowed one-earn run in 26 and a third inning

after joining the Braves at the trade deadline, a 0.34 ERA in Atlanta. So there's no doubt. Snitker should have a lot of confidence sent him going into the new season. Yeah, I was going to point out that same thing, Scott. With the Angels last year, Ryssel Iglesias had an ERA just over four,

so did get off to a rough start. But then you pointed out the numbers that he had, 0.3 4 ERA, a near 19% swinging strike rate for Rysel Eglacius once he joined the Atlanta Braves last season. I think he's in the mix to be a top five closer once again. He's making closer money, $16 million per year. I think the Braves just kind of plug them in there. Early ADP, according to the NFBC,

we see all going within four spots of each other. Camilo Doval at pick 76.8, Riceo Iglesias at 78.2, Kenley Jansen at 80.9. My suspicion is that Iglesias and Kenley Jansen will both move up a little bit now that we know where they're going to be pitching and that they're going to be the closers for sure for their respective teams. I'm surprised Camillo DeVal is that high. People like them. Yeah, I'm surprised though. Because the peripherals aren't as strong, he had a high whip last year. And You know, it took a while for him to get really solidified in that closer role. Gabe Kapler likes to play a lot of games with his bullpen.

So that's surprising to me. I would much prefer both Reisel Eglacius and Kenley Janssen to Deval. All right. Let's wrap up with Wilson Contreras to the St. Louis Cardinals on a five-year, $87.5 million deal. Yaddeir Malina retires. And what do they do? They bring in another amazing catcher, at least offensively, in Wilson Contreras,

who last year got off to a blazing start through the month of June. He was hitting 283 with 13 home runs. And then from July on, he hit 186 with nine home runs. He was playing through an ankle injury. There was a lot of trade rumors. I think something like that can affect the psyche and the overall play of a baseball player. Maybe something we don't factor in enough,

but we probably should. So he was great and then kind of slowed down. But I think the overall numbers are kind of what you expect from Wilson Contreras at this point. And Scott, look, this is a great lineup upgrade. I mean, he is going from the Cubs who were 22nd in run scored to the Cardinals who were already fifth in run scored. That was without Wilson Contreras.

So maybe a slight downgrade on the ballpark, but I think it's a huge upgrade in terms of the lineup. Yeah, that's a good point. And he could bat pretty high in that lineup too. And what's interesting about the Cardinals rank that high and run scored last year. Of course, Goldschmidt and Aeronado were rock solid, but there were a lot of hitters who underperformed

or didn't quite live up to their upside, Tyler O'Neill, Dylan Carlson, Nolan, there's even more potential for this lineup than they did without Contreras and last year, ranking 5th. So, yeah, it is a big lineup upgrade. the slow finish for Contreras. I don't put a lot of stock into that.

He is 30 now. That's getting old for a catcher. Clearly the Cardinals aren't concerned, signing him to a five-year deal. I mean, maybe they've been spoiled by Yaddy or Molina playing until he was 40 or whatever. But they don't seem concerned about it. And I feel like Wilson Contreras over the course of his career,

he's kind of taken us on a roller coaster ride at times looking like maybe he, He was better than he actually was, and at times looking like he was worse than he actually was, basically being really streaky. And so the way his 2022 season broke down fits in with that. His 815 OPS was his highest since 2019 when all was said done. So, yeah, I would say maybe stock's slightly up for Wilson Contreras going to the Cardinals.

Not enough for me to move into my rankings. You know, Catcher has become so strong. that Wilson Contreras is now outside of the top five for me. But he's somebody I may draft a lot just because he's overshadowed and maybe one of the more likely to slip in drafts because of that. The early ADP for Wilson Contreras, 96.6 as the seventh catcher off the board. I agree completely, Scott. If you want to wait just a little bit and then still get a first catcher,

whether you play in a two-catcher or a one-catcher league, that you could depend on, I think Wilson Contreras is a great target. There are currently three catchers going within six spots in ADP. Alejandro Kirk, Wilson Contreras, M.J. Melendez, in that order, Scott. Do you agree with that order? Yeah, though, I think M.J. Melendez is pretty far behind the other two for me. So I want to have them that close. But in terms of the order they're being drafted, yes, I would take Kirk first and Melendez last.

All right. We're going to wrap there. Again, three massive moves. Wilson Contreras to the Cardinals on a five-year deal, Kenley Janssen to the Red Sox on a two-year deal, and Aaron Judge headed back to the Yankees on a nine-year $360 million contract. We do have a lot of other moves to discuss,

and we will do that later on tonight with our buddy of the Welsh. For Scott, I am Frank, thank you all for listening and watching this emergency edition of fantasy baseball today. We'll be back later on. Bye-bye.