Fantasy Baseball Today - Kershaw Back to the Dodgers, Prospect Spotlight & Mailbag Questions! (2/9 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: February 9, 2024

Let's catch up on the news, starting with Clayton Kershaw returning to the Dodgers (3:25)! ... Carlos Santana signed with the Twins last week (9:30). ... Gary Sanchez signed with the Brewers (11:15)? ... The White Sox made two trades last weekend (14:30). ... Our latest prospect spotlight is on Jett Williams of the Mets (22:31). ... Let's get into your questions, starting with some quick keeper questions (29:30). ... What is Scott's approach to tiers (34:05). ... How should we use two-start pitchers in Fantasy (37:01)? ... How do we limit lopsided trades in keeper leagues (43:45)? ... Which hitters gain value in leagues with OBP and OPS (49:00)? ... What's our strategy from the 12th pick in a H2H points league (51:47)? ... We wrap up with statcast market inefficiencies (54:27). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

fantasy baseball today on February 9th. I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, we've got a bunch of news from the week to discuss player signings, some smaller trades going on, some GM slash coach speak ahead of spring training, some interesting things there, our latest prospect spotlight and your mailbag questions. Guys, in addition to Kokomo Friday, happy pitchers and catchers report day to the Dodgers, we're one step closer. All pitchers and catchers will report next week.

And then we have our first spring training game on February 22nd. Two weeks from yesterday, get hyped. Let's go. And everyone reports on Valentine's Day, right? I think most teams, some might report on the 15th. Yeah, it's kind of happening.

Yeah, it's not all one day. It's not all one day. I know that. Sorry, sorry. No, the Dodgers full squad has to report. court by Valentine's Day. That's what I was thinking of. So, although a bunch of those guys are already there.

Yes, indeed they are. All right, let's get into the news and notes. First and foremost here, we have not talked about the news since last week. The Corbyn Burns trade on this very podcast. Let's lead things off with Clayton Kirschaw, who signed a one-year deal to return to the Dodgers. He's three months removed from surgery to repair the glino-humeral ligaments and capsule in his left shoulder. Doesn't sound... The Grino is connected to the humoral.

We all know that. Doesn't sound very good. Kershaw began a throwing program last week and is targeting a second half return. He turns 36 in March, but was still really good last year. A 246 ERA, a 106 whip, just over a strikeout per inning,

13.2% swinging strike rate. Scott, we've got to wait a while, but my guess is he'll probably have some kind of relevance in the second half. Yeah, I would think so. That's, I mean, even when he came back late last year and was throwing like three innings at a time, barely cranking it up to 90, trying to look up the exit velocities just to be sure, but I'm going off memory with that. He did not look by the data like Clayton, Kirschall, and the results were still fine. So he's, I don't know how much you can actually invest in him in fantasy because his timeline, he's open to.

return in July or even August and who's going to be even if you have IEL spots who's going to be able to keep one free for him for that long but I suspect late in the year Clayton Kershaw is somebody who's going to be started in most fantasy leagues

at some point. He's had you guys probably remember he had that crazy run of like 11 straight seasons to open his career where he lowered his ERA every year if you remember that.

And then it kind of, he had a little, a little bump in the road. He has a 228 and a 246 ERA over the past two seasons. It's just, it's bonkers. Like, he's definitely going to be fantasy relevant at some point.

Whether you can or should invest anything in him in drafts, I tend to think probably not. For all the reasons Scott said, although I think the hope is that he'll be placed on the IL. He'll definitely be placed on the IL before like your first lineup lock. So you've got that going for you, right? Because they open the season on the 20th of March. They'll have to add him to the IL at that point.

So if you play in a league with IL spots, you're not going to have to like worry about having that spot available. It's going to be available. Unless your league is counting that series. sure but even then he'll be on the aisle before it so you should be able to just move him but like it i was hoping you'd get angry at the idea at the mere suggestion that a league might count that series i think you should in rhodo probably not in head to head but yeah in rhodo like those games are happening they should count yeah i fully believe that i mean that's what i've always

argued and i feel like people come after me it's kind of it's tough like when i don't know if you guys have had this issue when you're scheduling your leagues already, but like, I had one where we were just like, we might have to draft after those first two games. And luckily, it didn't come to that, but that'll be, that'll be a complication at this year. Yeah, it's, this happened a lot in the early mid 2000, like, and we've kind of gotten away from it. So it's not totally unfamiliar to me. But it has been a while, it has been a while since we worked with it. I would assume the biggest draft weekend of the year will still.

be the weekend following that series. Like, people are just... Hardly even going to think of it as any kind of opening day. And Thursday, March 28th is still going... People are going to treat that still as opening day. Even regardless of fantasy purposes, this game happening, the series happening overseas.

Well, all these... It's only two games. Happening. Like, just nobody's going to really much attention. Was the last time that this happened when Zach Rankie got hurt? you guys remember that? I think they were playing in Australia

and he hurt his back or something it's possible I'm making this up I feel like we had an A's Mariners series in Japan maybe in 2019 or something like that Yes, Ichiro That's why Ichi Roe that's why Ichero is eligible for the Hall of Fame last year

because he came back for that series I think that's I think that's correct Again, I might be making this up as well. All right, let's move on. While we're talking about the Dodgers, Walker Bueller will not be on the opening day roster. They have him on a, quote, slow program. His ADP on Fantasy Pros is 120.6 as the SP 36 off the board. My guess is that's going to continue to drop.

Other names, a little bit lower down, there's Carlos Rodon and U. Darvish, which are like in the SP 45 to SP50 range. it feels like that's closer to where Walker Bueller should be going. We'll see how the market reacts to this news. One more on the Dodgers. GM Brandon Gohm said Shohei Otani will be, quote, somewhat limited to begin spring training. Otani underwent elbow surgery in September,

but the hope remains he'll be ready to DH by opening day, or their opening day on March 20th for that series in Korea. Some big extensions, Bobby Witt Jr. signed an 11-year, $289 million extension with the Royals. Love it for the Royals, for their fans, and for baseball. This is just another reason to believe that even if you root for a team that's in a smaller market, you can lock up a player of this caliber. So I love to see something like this for Bobby Witt Jr. and for their fans.

Jose Altuvae signed a five-year, $125 million extension, which will take him through his age 39 season. Last, I want to say last Friday now at this point, the twins signed Carlos Santan. to a one-year $5.25 million deal. My guess is he'll start at first base while Alex Kirloff is the team's DH or vice versa. But if memory serves, I think Carlos Santana is a pretty good defensive

first baseman. He still has some juice. Last year he hit 240, 23 homers, 86 RBI, six deals. Chris, I don't know if this is just 15 team league, maybe AL only,

but Carlos Santana is going to matter somewhere. Yeah, the problem is, and this has kind of been the problem with Carlos Santana the last four years or so is his skill set is better suited for a Roto league because he's going to walk a lot. He's going to have a decent OVP. You mean in a points league. Sorry, a points league. But his batting average has been 240 or below, usually much, much more below over the past four seasons.

So like, yeah, 20-ish home runs, decent run and RBI totals. that seems reasonable when he's playing, but it's going to really drag you down and batting average to a point where unless he has a real bounce back, and actually last season, I mean, 164 runs plus RBI on 20-3 runs.

That was the bounce back. That's not bad. So if you can repeat that, that's useful in Roto as well, but probably not someone you need to draft. The previous three years, Carlos Santana hit 207 with a 678 OPS, over a three-year period.

So I thought he was done already. And last year, he really surprised me. Even in those deeper leagues, I'm not sure I'd count on him doing what he did last year. All right. Gary Sanchez signed a one-year $7 million deal with the Brewers of all teams, likely to be the backup catcher and get some DH opportunities. Last year, he did bounce back as well.

217 batting average. Obviously, that's really bad. 19 homers from a catcher, 780 OPS in just 75 games, still hits the ball hard, a 15.4% barrel rate, his highest since 2020. And my guess is he'll get some DH starts versus lefties because he crushed him last year, the triple slash 267 304, 680.

Scott, this should not affect William Contreras, right? Just because some people have already asked me about it. I'm a little concerned, not like Gary Sanchez is going to take the job away from him, But a big part of William Contreras's appeal, a big reason why I rank him second at the position, a big reason why he performed first at the position in Rotolix last year, right, is volume,

is he plays so much more than the typical catcher? And is Gary Sanchez a good enough backup that it might diminish that William Contreras goes from playing 145 games to 135 games? Possibly, it's, you know, I'm not particularly motivated to take William Contreras anyway. just because I don't want to invest that much in a catcher. But it might, if I was inclined to, it might make me hesitate a little. And I think there's the other part of it is just,

does the new Brewer's manager, Pat Murphy? Yes. Will he be as inclined to use his two catchers on the roster at the same time? Because a lot of teams are hesitant to use a second. could they want to leave that emergency, that backup catcher on the bench? Will they be willing to put Willing Contreras at DH every time Gary Sanchez is catching? And even vice versa, frankly, for the league, the deep league appeal that Sanchez might have. If they're not as willing to do that as they were last season, you know, that's certainly an open question as well.

I do think it slightly lowers the plate appearance projection for some of those fringe outfielders as well, the Garrett Mitchells, the South Freelix of the world, just because they're likely to be platooned, and there's just not as many DH opportunities to go around now with Gary Sanchez on that team. Speaking of the Brewers, they signed Jacob Junis to a one-year $7 million deal,

and he's expected to be used as a starter. He was solid last year with the Giants, mostly in relief, a 387-ERA-129 whip, 10K per 9, 11.3%. swinging strike rate. He has just leaned all the way into his slider. Used it 63% of the time last year. Solid pitch for him. The velocity was up on the sinker as well. Nearly two miles per hour. It still gave up a 418 padding average against the updated Brewers rotation options.

Let's put it that way because there are a lot of options. We know Peralta will be there. We know Wade Miley will be there. Sounds like Junis will be there. And then two of Colin Ray, D.L. Hall, Joe Ross, Aaron Ashby. and one of their prospects, Robert Gasser. So this will be something to watch throughout spring training. We had some trades with the White Sox last weekend. First, they traded reliever Gregory Santos to the Mariners in exchange for prelander, Barrowa,

outfield prospect, Zach Deloche, and the 69th overall pick, nice, in the 2024 MLB draft. Deloche, 25 years old, he was a second round pick in 2020. does have a little bit of pop. Maybe he matters at some point in deeper leagues. Scott, the name that kind of stands out here is pre-lander Barrowa because he's had some really interesting numbers in the minors. Last year, 101 strikeouts in 65 in a third innings.

He throws hard, he's got a wicked slider, also has massive control issues. My guess is he could factor into the closer role there, whether it's between him or John Brebia. those are probably the leading candidates, I would say, right now for the White Sox. Yeah, I noticed you took pre-lander Barroa with one of your last picks in that 15 team draft,

and I was like, who is that? So you were on that before I was. Good strikeout numbers of the minors, as you say. Control issues. I mean, I don't think he's just going to be installed as the closer right away, and I don't know that it would go well, even if he was.

And so the fact that they don't have an obvious, closer, the White Sox, now that they've traded Gregory Santos, I think makes me just not want to invest in anyone in the White Sox bullpen because they're going to be a bad team. And when you got a bad team, it's hard enough for a full-time closer on a bad team to make a worthwhile fantasy contribution. You get guys splitting saves, none of whom are particularly good. It's a mess. It's not worth pursuing. Yeah, it just think about how frustrating and not really worth the time chasing those Diamondbacks relievers was last year until they traded for Paul Seawold. Yeah. And that was on a good team, not the White Sox. And look, there are times when bad teams end up winning more of their games by one or two runs and it ends up being a decent situation. But yeah, if there's not a clear guy by the time camp breaks, I don't. think it's anything you want to invest any amount.

I think it's mostly for deeper leagues for now. Maybe somebody emerges. I'll point this out for the Oakland A's last year in the second half. Trevor May had 15 saves in the second half alone. So there are situations where a player can emerge on a bad team, but we'll just kind of have to wait and see on regarding the White Sox bullpen. The next trade they made was they acquired outfieler Dominic Fletcher from the D-backs in exchange for pitching prospect Christian Mena.

and Fletcher did show a little bit of something last year with the D-backs, mostly a strong batting average profile with modest power and speed. Last year in the miners hit 291 with 10 homers, five steals, in 899 OPS in 66 games in the PCL. Roster resource has Fletcher

as the strong side platoon in right field. Again, it's mostly a deep league name to know for now. I'm just going to try and fly through the rest of these. If there's something that really stands out, feel free to interrupt me. Joe Musgrove and U. Darvish will not have any limitations in spring training. Musgrove missed the final two months of last season with right shoulder inflammation and also dealt with elbow brusitis earlier in the year.

Darvish missed the final month with a bone spur in his right elbow. Both could turn out to be great values if healthy, and obviously we'll be paying close attention in spring training. Orioles GM Mike Elias said that Jackson Holiday will play, quote, a lot of second base during spring training. Holiday only has shortstop eligibility on CBS. but could quickly gain second base if it plays out that way. We spoke about that more on our shortstop preview,

which will be out on Monday. The A's acquired. Let me go ahead and say, I think, I guess I've said this before, but Jackson Hollidays barely drafted inside the top 200. And I think he's one of the most underdrafted players right now. Because, I mean, I already thought he had an inside track to a starting job for the Orioles. But now that Mike Alias is kind of laying out this. plan for him.

Is it Elias or Elias? Elias. Okay. Mike Elias is laying out this plan for him to be part of an infield rotation where you got Gunner Henderson moving back and forth and you got Jackson Holiday moving back. That just makes it even clear that these are their intentions. And Holiday has to earn it. He has to prove he's ready for it. But if he does, he's in. And you'll be happy you invested in him in that case.

The A's acquired raw shripling and cash considerations from the Giants in exchange for Jonah Cox. The updated A's rotation, not great. JP Sears, Paul Blackburn, Alex Wood, raw stripling. And my guess is a battle between Luis Medina and Joe Boyle for their SP5. And then the updated Giants rotation, Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison, Jordan Hicks, Keaton, Wynn, Tristan Beck, maybe Prospect Mason Black. It kind of works his way in there somewhere as well.

The Giants seem like a perfect fit for one of Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery, but we haven't heard anything on that front yet. The Mets do not expect to sign Pete Alonzo to a contract extension prior to reaching free agency next offseason, which means we're getting contract year polar bear Pete Alonzo. Adolos Garcia signed a two-year $14 million deal with the Rangers to avoid arbitration. Padre's manager Mike Schilt mentioned Robert Suarez and Yuki Matsui as possibilities, but declined to name a close.

when asked about it last week. Age GM mentioned three relievers as candidates for save. Saves Mason Miller, Danny Jimenez, and Trevor Gott. Even worse situation than the White Sox right now. The Cubs. But what my? Mason Miller pitching out of the bullpen. That could be really, really fun.

I wrote him up as a sleeper, Chris. Yeah. I think that that's one that obviously he had trouble, you know, got called up and immediately got hurt. basically last season. But I think pitching in shorter bursts with the kind of stuff that he has, I mean, he's got what, 300, sorry, 144 strike. No, 69 strikeouts on 144 batters faced in the minors,

working almost exclusively as a starter. Very, very small sample sizes. But yeah, he could be, I don't think it's a stretch to say Mason Miller could be one of the best relievers in baseball if he goes that route. or he could get hurt still. Absolutely. And they still pitches for the A. So I don't want to oversell him,

but like if you're just comparing the White Sox closing candidates to the A's closing candidates, the first one I'd take from either bullpen is Mason Miller by a long shot. I would take to help contextualize this. I would take Yuki Matsui over any of them because I think, I think the Wante Peralta signing, signing another lefty. made it clear that that's the preference. Matsui has a great track record as a closer in Japan. And I think he's a better choice than Robert Suarez.

But if we get to like May 15th, and it looks like Mason Miller's the closer, I might rank him as a top 20 guy. And to your point, Scott, when being excited about Yuki Matsui, the Padres are actually a major league team. So I think that actually helps his likelihood to help in fantasy as well. heads up that we won't have a live stream this Sunday with the Super Bowl on,

but we've already recorded our shortstop preview, and that will come out Monday morning, both on YouTube, and as a podcast in your feed. Let's get into our prospect spotlight. Big thanks to everybody who either emailed or left a name in an Apple podcast review. We're going with one of the Mets Top Prospects, Jet Williams, who was sent in by GRC, Ismail, I don't know, on Apple, and Drew Alexander via email.

So two requests for Jet Williams. He was the 14th overall pick by the Mets back in 2022 with a very unique skill set. Last year in the minors, hit 263, 13 homers, 45 steals, and an 876 OPS. Smaller guy, 5'6, blazing fast and walks a ton. 425 on base percentage.

Scott, Jet Williams checks in as your number 24 overall prospect. What do you think about his unique skill set? Could it actually work in the majors? Yeah, he was one of the biggest prospect risers for me last year. I didn't think much of him coming out of the draft. But that performance he put on, particularly the plate discipline he showed, and also the power for being a 5'6 guy was surprising.

He was even capable of driving the ball out to the opposite way, which you wouldn't expect for somebody that small and somebody that young. He was 19 last year. And I saw some reports this offseason for Jet Williams that the only reason he lasted as long as 14. Like there was some speculation he would go earlier than that was because he's 5 foot 6 and that kind of scared some teams away.

Obviously, we've seen plenty of short players turn into studs in the majors. If you have speed like Jet Williams does, appropriately named there. That helps his cause. I think, I don't know that his path is, I don't know that he's necessarily going to wind up at shortstop for the Mets because they have Francisco Lendor locked up long term,

but he's somebody who would be a fit in center field. If the Mets choose to go that route, second base is always a possibility too, if you can play shortstop. So, yeah, I mean, you said it. I have Jet Williams 24th, is that what you said, a top 25 overall prospect? I made a big trade for him in a dynasty league this offseason.

and I'm very high on him. I think he's good. Well, guess what, Scott? You won't be getting him in the Scott White Dynasty League because he's on my team. Jet Williams, just 20 years old. He got all the way up to AA. I think he played six or seven games there at the end of the season.

The Mets invited him to spring training, which doesn't mean too much, you know, get his feet wet a little bit, see how he responds to playing with other talented players. And given how they've handled their other recent top prospects, I'd be shocked if they got him up before he spent some time in AAA. Yeah, I mean, I think he's absolutely going to spend more time in the minors this year, probably start in double A and then work his way up.

But Chris, any chance you think we can see Jet Williams, maybe one of those September call-ups to get a preview for the following year in 2025. I think, if I'm remembering correctly from Scott White's top 100 prospects, late season hopeful is maybe where he either. Or don't count on it? Late season look is how I phrase it. Late season look, but was it that one or was it don't count on it. I was trying to.

It was late season look. Okay. Basically because he made it to double A by the end of last season. So if you once you get to double A, you're, you're within months of debuting. Yeah. Potentially, anytime you get to double A, it obviously depends on every organization, right? The raise, you get to double A. You might still have like two years left in minors, but yeah.

You know, some teams and the Mets. If you remember the way we talked about, Francisco Alvarez and Brett Beatty and Mark Vientos and second baseman whose name I'm blanking on who Tours A.C.L. Ronnie Maricio. Ronnie Maricio. The Mets have been more cautious with their guys than certainly we would prefer. I don't necessarily think that's wrong.

It's just we get antsy. But, you know, Jet Williams, there's a lot to like. I'm looking right up about him on baseball prospectus. and his max exevalos right around 107 to 108 miles an hour, which that's not elite for a major leaguer, but for a 19 to 20 year old in, you know, A ball, that's totally fine. That works.

He had the lowest chase rate in the Florida State League, um, in zone contact rate, no problem there, didn't chase the ball, plate discipline looks really good. So yeah, I think,

um, I think there's a lot to like here. And Scott, what you said, that their write-up begins. A common reframe around the time of the 2022 draft was that Jet Williams would have been in contention for the top pick in the country if he was six inches taller. Top pick. Wow. Yeah. Yeah.

So some skills there for sure. He's really, he's done everything you would want from a prep bat. You know, a year after getting drafted, getting to double A is very, very impressive. So I think there's a lot to like there. Yeah. And remember, if you want to hear about a specific top prospect on a future mailbag, leave us a five-star rating on Apple Podcasts, drop the prospect's name in the review. Let's take our first break when we return into the mailbag right after this.

On to the mailbag we go. We'll start with our Apple Podcast review questions. I know last week we said we don't want to answer keeper questions, but I'll quickly hit a few. I'm feeling nice. From Macho Row, I'm in a 12-Team Keeper League head-to-head categories, 6x6 plus OBP. I can keep only one player in the respective round he was drafted in last year's draft.

Luis Robert in the fifth round, Adley Ruchman in the 8th. Jordan Walker in the 14th, Yandi Diaz in the 20th, and Anthony Volpe in the 21st. Macho added that he was leaning Yandy. OBP with Adly Ruchman feels kind of enticing in the eighth round too.

But I think it's between those two for me. Yeah, I agree. And I get the impression, this is, you only get one chance to keep this player. So, you know, Yandi Diaz doesn't have a lot of runway ahead of him, but you're really just thinking 2024 with this and not any kind of long-term discount, right? I still think I'd, I still think I'd go Adley Rushman. When in doubt, go with a better player.

Yeah, I think that, and that's why I was considering Luis Robert, but he's just, it helps that it's average and OBP. But then you think about what that means for Yandi Diaz, and he's really, really good in both. So that that double counting helps Yondi Diaz a lot. I mean, it helps Adley Ruchman as well because he's good batting it, but Yandi Diaz might be top 10 in baseball on both batting average and OBP. I think he was last year. So, that was number two in batting average, right? Well, he won the AL batting title. I guess so.

No, I think Acuna was ahead of him. I think Acuna was ahead of him, yeah. You might, yeah. Either way. Nope, he was fourth in batting average. And who did we miss? Freeman. Freddie Freeman.

Yeah. And tied for third in OBP. So yeah, even if you expect regression, and I think we all do, Yanni Diaz should be really, really good in both average and OBP. So that's another thing you have to keep in mind when you're talking about those six by six categories leagues where you're adding OBP is there's some double counting that can help some players a lot more. Is that you saying that you would take Diaz over Adley-Rutchman here, Chris? I think so. I think so.

So that means I've got to break the tie. And I don't like that because it's close between those two. I'll take Gandhi, but it is close. From due rights, 10-team, 5-5-Yahoo Category League, we can keep a player for three years in the round they were drafted. If we pick a player up as a free agent, we can keep them with the last pick of the draft. I need two players out of this list.

Bobby Witt, Jr., in the second round, then C.J. Abrams, Matt McLean, Bobby Miller, Justin Steele, were all free agent pickups. He doesn't see what happens if there's two. My guess is it's probably just the last. And second to last rounds, Bobby Witt is really good. Yeah, I think you've got to keep Bobby Witt.

I mean, it's a 10-team league impact matters above all else. I presume most every other team is going to keep the players worth taking with that second round pick that you're using up on Bobby Witt. You still get to hold on to a first-rounder, right? So, yeah, I think Bobby Witt has to be one as amazing as those discounts are. second probably C.J. Abrams. Yep, I think so. Man, you get 100 steals between your two keepers.

I mean, that's the nice thing is you kind of just stop worrying about steals the rest of the way, with those two locked in, especially like you're still going to have your first round pick here. So what it, would it change your mind at all if there's not a middle infield spot to fill? If there's just one shortstop spot, so you're putting C.J. Abrams at D. Well, it is a Yahoo C.J.A.R. so he gets two utility spots. True.

Presumably if it's the standard. Yeah. Yahoo standard. If that's the case, then that makes it even easier. But yeah, even if you had to just one utility spot, no middle infield,

if it's a categories league, I think you still win Abrams. Abrams is just so far ahead of everyone else. It's a fair question you bring up, Scott, but I think I would still go with those two, even without a middle infield spot. So Bobby Witt and CJ Abrams for your. your last round keeper.

Next up, the emails, fantasy baseball at cbsi.com from Matt in Philly. This one's for Scott. Dear Mick, Keith and Ronnie. The Beatles.

That's the monkeys, guys. I did, I did get a text message from a friend. That was like, did Scott really not know that that was the Rolling Stones?

See what I was thinking. Okay, I'll go ahead and try to. I did not know that was the Rolling Stones either. Frank was joking it was the Beatles. But I, And then he was doubling down on it. I assumed it was some kind of like tangential reference to the Beatles.

Not that guys named Mick Keith and Ronnie were part of the Beatles. And yes, I know who Mick Jagger is. I know who Keith Richards is. The fact is Keith is listed is Keith here. Never heard that before. But apparently it's a thing. Whatever. I'm not I'm not the biggest music person, I'll admit.

But I could name the Beatles. All right. Let's answer the question. Hey, guys. Love the show. and have been a listener for over a decade. Thank you. My question for Scott is,

why are you so crazy about making a player in the same tier across different positions? I think a player being in different tiers shows the difference in how strong each position is. An example is someone like Dalton Varsho

a couple years ago. You would have him in a much higher tier at catcher back then compared to outfield. He's not the only one, but the easiest example to show what I mean. If you think Hassan Kim is in a higher tier in one position than I think you are right and would be wrong to add tiers or move him into a different tier. You also have guys in the quote elite tiers like

Adley Ruchman who is nowhere near your other elite tier players at different positions which makes sense because every position's tiers aren't even in strength. We're trying to live in a society here. Okay. We need to have rules. There cannot be chaos. I get what he's saying about the catcher thing. In years past when it was an issue, I would just say, you know, bump every multiple, bump every catcher who's multi-eligible

down a tier at that other position. So there was like, I just introduced a rule that probably nobody paid attention to. I get maybe nobody cares about this but me. There are a lot of things nobody cares about me, but you're not just tiering positions independently of other tiers, the whole point of tiering a position is so that you can compare it while the draft is happening to how the tiers are depleting at other positions.

And if there isn't a certain amount of congruity between those positions, the whole process becomes confusing and not particularly helpful. I'm trying to make it easier on you as a consumer of my tiers to follow along and make good decisions. That's why I do it. and I'm going to keep doing it. So there. All right.

From Kevin, two-star pitchers are valuable in weekly lineup leagues. However, I cannot find the stats of pitchers who had the most two-star weeks in previous seasons. I'm not sure that honestly matters much, but I would like to hear Frank Scott and Chris discuss the value of two-star pitchers on the podcast. And it feels like, much like the pitching landscape in general, obviously two-star pitchers have changed. I think they're scarier. The pitchers you find off the waiver wire are maybe not as good as the pitchers that we've found on the waiver wire a decade ago. So it was easier to stream two-star pitchers then. I think it's much easier to try and do in a head-ed points league because it doesn't hurt you as much.

I mean, it could hurt you for a week instead of if you get a two-star pitcher in a roto league that gets blown up twice. I mean, it'll take you a month to recover from that in your ratios. So I don't know, Chris. There's no easy answer here. How do you feel about two-star pitchers in 2020? And I don't know if there's even very much value in talking about two-start pitchers in draft season, because here's what you need to know right now. If the Dodgers go with a six-man rotation, they're not going to have very many two-star pitchers.

That's it, right? Like, that's really the only, like, draft relevant information about two-star pitchers, because the Dodgers and Padres are going to have their aces presumably start the first and third games of the season, right? Like that would be the expectation there. So I don't know like rotations change so many days off baked in early on to try to avoid weather delays and stuff that I just I don't know if there's any value in talking about two star pitchers during draft season. Now, the value of two-star pitchers in general is fairly straightforward. You get, you know, when you're playing in a weekly head-to-head format, especially, you're getting twice as many opportunities to get points or, you know, contributions in any given category.

It's less relevant. I think in a roto league, it does matter because you can, you know, steal a couple extra starts, but the downside is a lot riskier in Roto. Any categories league. Even in Categories league. Points leagues where it's most viable. Although head-to-head categories leagues, it's still viable just because two of the four starting pitcher categories are counting stats. And so, you know, you might blow up your ratios and it still might be worth it because for that one week, you're getting double the counting stats.

I agree that there's not much value to talking about two start pitchers in draft prep season. But I want to go ahead and I want you to wrap your mind around this. while the subject has come up. If you buy into Glob theory that all the pitchers in the glob are random number generators and you can't predict with any real confidence how any of them is going to perform

in any given start, they're all basically interchangeable. Then the more pitchers you draft from the glob, the more you should anticipate streaming two-star pitchers off the waiver wire because they're all interchangeable. I mean, if you're playing a deep enough league, then the only pitchers on the way for while will be sub-glob.

But most people listening, the kind of pitchers they're going to be choosing from, will be part of the glob. So something to keep in mind. If that trend continues. Where does the glob technically end, Scott, for you? So I laid it out my latest article on CBS Sports. It may not be the latest by the time you're listening to it.

But how to draft starting pitchers in 2024? It's a whole series of position strategies pieces. I think it's the most helpful content I put out every draft prep season, so I encourage you to read it. And in this particular one, the starting pitcher strategy piece, I define exactly where the glob begins and ends. And I'm scrolling to it now. So for me, by ADP, the highest drafted glob pitcher is Joe Ryan.

If you reject that Joe Ryan is in the glob, then it's Hunter Green, but I think Joe Ryan's in the glob. The lowest drafted pitcher in the glob by ADP is Bryce Elder, 376 overall. I don't know if that seems too low to you. Seth Lugo, 280 overall.

It's a big group of pitchers. It's a big group of pitchers. I encourage you to check out the article and you could go through all the names that are part of the glob. Okay. I more so wanted to know just about, where it ended in your rankings.

I guess that would probably be around SP 80. Just because I'm thinking out loud, in a head-to-head points league, even a shallower format like that, so many pitchers are drafted that I would imagine your top 80 starting pitchers are going to be rostered in that format. So the free agents, even in a shallower league,

still might be sub-glob pitchers, you know? The thing about a glob, Frank, is it continually gross. Oh. Like, it's not stagnant. It is constantly glomming on to other. pitchers and I'm sure there will be plenty of pitchers in 12 team leagues that become part of the glob. Yeah, I mean, right now I'd say it's about 50 pitchers, 50 pitchers in the glob, but it's going

to shift and change and be reshaped as the year plays out. And I'm sure there will be plenty of globby pitchers to choose from as the season plays out. This next one is from Ryan. I'm thinking of making a trade. This is for my 10-team and I'll only keeper league where you can keep an entire roster if you choose 5x5 standard roto my team should be pretty good this year but next year is my year lots of confidence i like it uh i have a ton of money to spend in the auction and i'm going for show hey otani i'd be sending max munsey for bryson stott and zach vene or tony gonslyn zack vene outfield prospect with the rockies and an n-l-only keeper scout would you trade munsey for stott and vene or gonslyn i'm not sure where you're

the Otani part factors into this. Yeah, I don't know either. But I mean, five by five roto, I would prefer Bryson Stott to Max Muncie straight up. I mean, it kind of depends what your team needs are, how much you need speed.

But if you look at my roto rankings, Bryson Stott is ahead of Max Muncie, and it's a keeper league, so he's got the youth factor going for him. And you're getting what could be, what could turn out to be a pretty usable piece there in Zach Vien, if he bounces back from an injury plague season. So yeah, I'd definitely do that.

All right. Next up, this one is from Shelley, Dear Jungle Jim, Nelly, and Little Louie. These are, these are apparently White Sox legends. I don't know if that's the right way to phrase it. But former White Sox players nicknames, it appears. Luis Appariccio, Nelly Fox. was the other one? Jungle Jim. Jungle Jim. Jim Rivera. There you go. All right. You learn something new every day. I play in a 15-team Dynasty, Roto Auction League. Four outfielders, one catcher, pretty

competitive. In the past, trades have become a problem because by June, team scuffling begin to tank by selling off their assets for draft money and or prospects. There is talk about institutional controls slash limits slash oversight by other owners of proposed trades. Do you have suggestions or alternatives to police trades or is it better to let the market decide? Yeah, I mean, it's always better to let the market decide. I don't, you can't have other teams police their competition. That's just, that's just not going to work and it's going to cause so much discord.

and it's going to end up being more unfair than it is fair. I'm not saying you can't institute disincentives for a full-scale trade-off, but I don't think that's the way to go about it. One I like and have used in my own Dynasty League is, well, when it's a head-to-head league, like a consolation bracket between the non-playoff teams to determine draft order the following year, so that if you go overboard and selling off your pieces, it's actually going to, it could do you more harm than good. This being a Roto League, you could just do a reverse order of finish for the non-playoff teams.

Maybe you don't start with number two picks first, but maybe, I don't know, number six picks first or what. You can figure out exactly that an full minute. Just do a variant of what you were talking about earlier and just do outside of the top five, whichever team is the best in September. You know, so like that, it still incentivizes staying active

through the rest of the way. And so even if you're really bad, if you put together a team that does really well in September, you can end up in this case probably with, it's tougher in a salary cap slash auction league because you don't have that carrot of the number, an overall pick. But, you know, maybe it's an extra five auction

dollars or something. By the way, the reason I say it ends up being, it's going to end up being less fair is just because I don't think when you're having this much input and this much subjectivity from this much people, there's ever going to be a consistent standard applied. So people will suffer more than others at different times

and it'll just be a nightmare. Now, if you want to, if you really want to avoid tanking, salary floor for players. salary cap and salary floor that you have to meet in season. Now, usually most of these leagues, once you draft, you can trade for $500 worth of players. But if you made it so that if you have a $260 budget, no team can go over $320 and no team can go below $200,

that might be one way to do it. But it also introduces like if you draft, if you spend $70 on Ronald Acuna, and he blows out his ACL in week 10, I don't want that to happen, Frank. But if it did, for the sake of this argument, you just have to hang on to that player or else you're going to be below the salary floor

and having a legal lineup. So I, generally speaking, just let people do what they want. All right, let's take our final break. When we've returned, a few more questions here on Fantasy Baseball today. Welcome back in. We've got a few more emails. This one's from Zach in the Mile High City.

Dear Chuck, Barry, and Frank. Fred. Obviously, this is famous Flugelhorn players. Chuck Mangione. No, I'm sorry. I don't know what this one is. It's impossible to Google

because when you search Chuck comma Barry and Fred, you're just going to get Chuck Barry. Yeah? That's all I can think about. Yeah. So I got nothing on this one. I just wanted to say Chuck Mangione and

Flugelhorn. These have been hard so far. Somebody needs to throw us like an obvious. one like Huey, Dewey and Louie. Come on, man. Yeah, I'm not finding anything either. And honestly, I know the least of you guys, so I'm definitely not going to figure it out. I am in a head-to-head categories league where the six

offensive categories are runs, home runs, RBI, steals, OBP, and OPS. Okay, with us not having batting average as a category, what are some offensive hitters you feel really shine in this format? I'm keeping someone like Kyle Schwabber, who walks a lot, but was curious who you might really, who might benefit from this offensive category set without batting average. So I punched this into the auction calculator on Fangraphs, and Kyle Schwerber graded out as

the 16th best hitter once I did that. So yes, he absolutely should be kept in this format and he's a huge boost. Other names that moved up by quite a bit, Mike Trout, Alex Bregman, Tristan Kossis, Max Muncie, Yandy Diaz, Brandon Nimmo, Nolan Gorman. Anyone else? Michael Bush. Come to mind? Yep.

I understand why he wouldn't show up if you're using past stats or even projections. But based on his skill set, I could see Michael Bush benefited quite a bit. All right. Chris, anything to mind? I'm really trying to figure out what this Chuck Barry and Fred thing was. So I'm sorry. Offensive hitters who really shine in a format that does not. count average but counts OBP and OPS.

Yeah. Yeah, I think that list, Yaddi Diaz, I don't think counts in this because I think his values relatively the same in average versus OVP. Maybe a little more valuable in OBP, but he's going to have for a really good batting average. So it's those really low, like Carlos Santana, when you're not just counting average, he goes from, I mean, his OBP has still been not great the past few years, but it hasn't been disaster like his batting average. So, you know, he becomes a little more relevant there.

But it's it's those low average, uh, higher OBP guys, I think. All right. This one's from Chuck. Scott, I need help. I draft from the 12th position in a 12 12 team head to head points league. And I don't have a great strategy. When you do a 12 team points league mock draft, would you please draft from the 12 spot for me? I can use all the help I can get. Well, I have a question for Chuck, Chuck. do you know a Barry and a Fred is maybe you are the subject of that other email

I was trying to see like maybe if they were is there some comment connection with Fred McGriff and Barry Larkin they're both Hall of Famers is there a Chuck where they did they go to the same nothing I don't think that's what it was so what is he asking me what should he do

from the 12th spot? Yeah heads out points this this is a series that we do in football where we do a mock draft and then write about the experience of drafting from each spot and what you should expect and what it's like. I kind of think we should consider doing that. I think it's a fun exercise, but baseball drafts are very, very different from football

drafts. There's just so much more. There's less consensus, I would say, with baseball. That makes it not particularly helpful. Okay. So 12th spot in a head-to-head points league, you're probably, if people draft close to my rankings, then you're probably, you might have a shot at Bobby Witt there or Corbyn-Carrul or Julio Rodriguez,

guys who go on the top five in Roto, but there are hitters who surpassed them in points. And I would be much more likely to double-dip the hitters than go with a pitcher if Garrett Cole or Spencer Strider makes it there. I don't suspect they will, but if they do, I think actually, even though points leagues are thought to be the better format for pitchers, I think they're the more forgiving format for pitchers.

So they're the more forgiving format in this age of the glob. And so I think that actually puts less pressure on drafting high-end pitchers even than in Roto. And in particular, I would emphasize outfield with those first two picks. I'm not saying you need to, you know, if your now, Verrez is already gone and Villior Rodriguez and Court, we care, okay, there's probably not an outfield worth taking there. but if there are a couple of those guys and there isn't somebody obvious to take over them, like a Matt Olson or, I don't know, I was thinking Fernando Tatis,

but he's obviously an outfielder too. There's a good chance you could take two outfielders here and address a very scarce position with two of the stud class, and that would be a great way to start the draft. So that's what I would try to do, I think. This next one's from Luke, Hope you're having a great week.

Scott mentioned the quote in the subject line on the first base preview pod. I probably should have wrote that down somewhere. Chris, if you can copy and paste that into the email, you might be able to find it. But it got me thinking about market inefficiencies and how that statement could potentially lead to winning trade opportunities. Are there players whose stackcast numbers may be read and what other players focus on, but would be a great candidate to sell. Conversely, are there players whose stack cast numbers may be blue,

but would be a great buy? Basically, I'm in agreement that everyone seems to just go to baseball savant, see red or blue, and make a trade decision based on colors as opposed to rationale. Is there an opportunity to discuss how to exploit this common and lazy analysis?

Yes, so the quote is, most people live and die by the stat cast page. And I think there is, is something to be said for the idea that the way that Statcast has opted to display their metrics and which metrics they opt to display in that little lollipop bar has had some deleterious effects on the... Is that what it's called? Lollipop bar?

I've heard that. Yeah, I've heard that. I'm always amused by like these graphical terms that pop. up and I've just... Well, yeah, because there are... There are... Everybody loves a good data viz, right? Like, we love, you know,

like what you'll see around draft time for the NFL is like these spider web charts where it's like, he's 98th percentile in 40-yard dash and 95th percentile in hand size. And like, it's got all these factors and it goes around. And if you fill the chart up, it looks really good. And the thing about all these is they can be manipulated and they can be deceptive.

And our brains, want to think red good, blue bad, or lots of bars filled good, lots of bars on the low end bad. But there are some things you have to keep in mind when it comes to sackass. And we've hammered this home, God, 47 times on every single podcast that we've done during these position previews where, oh, Jose Al Tuvea maximizes his launch angle. And what baseball savant does not take into account when they're doing expected Wobah and all these stats is spray angle of the batted ball because they've talked the guys who run that have talked about. They're very smart. I'm not criticizing them for it, but they've talked about how for the

overwhelming majority of players, it just doesn't add predictive value. Most players, you're going to do better without taking into account spray angle. And that is true, but we've talked about a lot of these counter examples. Jose Altuvae, Marcus Simeon. On the other side, Matt Chapman, I think is probably the biggest one. And what that is is basically guys who, Brett Beatty, we talked about on third base preview. Bobeschette. Bobeschette, guys who hit the ball,

particularly to the power alleys in the air, are going to likely underperform their expected stats because it defenses further. That's the simplest way. Yeah. I think Marsala has that problem too. Obviously not last year, but those years where he was underperforming.

Tommy Bam has always been like, maybe the poster child for that of a guy who just hits the ball 380 feet to right center. When if you hit it 360 feet down the right field line, left field line since he's right-handed hitter. But, you know, he would be a much more. I think we just gave you some sell high candidates to the extent that you could sell high on Tommy Van. In terms of buying low, what makes this tricky is it's until a player does it year after year. Yeah. You don't necessarily trust him to do it.

Like I have Isok Paredes as a bus this year. He's the most extreme example of his spray angle, allowing him to overperform his stat-cast metrics. I guess T.J. Friedel would be in that bucket, too. Just a lot of guys being talked about as bus candidates now. But it may just be that that is something they can carry over year after year, and they become the next wave of Marcus Simeon types. They're in that 5% to 10% of players that just,

it doesn't really apply to. So you're going to have to... Lane Thomas is another one. I'm not sure how effectively you can buy low on them because I guess if they're being talked about so much as a bus candidate, and to be honest, Issaup Pareda's cost isn't that high.

Yeah. So if the value is there in a trade, it might be worth gambling, but there's a reason I call them a bus too and maybe it doesn't work out. So you just have to live with that if you're going to try and do it. There were a few other athletic profiles that came to mind that have defied statcast numbers in the past.

And most notably, Randy Rosarena and Javier Baez, these were guys where, you know, normally their statcast pages didn't look great. I mean, they weren't lit up in red, but these guys are athletic outliers. And that allows them to beat what, you know, the projected or expected numbers say that they should be. But those are rare examples. Again, those are outliers and there's nuance involved in finding those players. And on the other side of the ledger also, the Juncarlo Stanton's who I remember Miguel Cabrera late in his career was a really good example of this. Of his Miguel Cabrera Stackass page never really looked all that bad.

Like even when he was 40 and hit posting 670 OPSs, like his statcast page looked pretty good. The problem is when you're Miguel Cabrera and you're 40 or when you're John Carlo, stand, you're 34 because he's aged really poorly. Defensive players can just step three steps back and still beat you out on a ground ball. And like, that doesn't happen all that often, but five or six times a year, you get beat on a ball that you might have been able to beat out. That stuff starts to add up. So it's, yeah, players who pull the ball down the line tend to do a little better.

Players who hit to the power alleys tend to do a little worse. fast players tend to outperform their stats. Slow players tend to underperform their stats. All right. We're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify.

And we'll be back again next week. Bye-bye.