Submit Podcast or Channel

Kyle Bradish Injury Reaction, Prospect Spotlight & Mailbag Questions! (2/16 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

February 16, 20240 comments♥ 0
00:36unless, of course, you're an Orioles fan.Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today.Frank Scott and Chris all here on February 16th.Today on the show, we have a bunch of news from the week.We have another prospect spotlight and your mailbag questions.What the heck happened to the Orioles?I woke up Thursday morning, and it was just one bad news item after another, after another,and that's exactly where we will start.
01:02The biggest news that we saw was regarding Kyle Bradish,A pitcher I actually liked this year for Fantasyhas been diagnosed with a UCL sprain in his right elbowand will open the season on the IL.He was given a PRP injectionand will be getting a throwing program this weekenddepending on the severity.You know, pitchers can pitch through an injury like this.
01:25We saw, you know, I think the most recent,famous example is Masahiro Tanaka did it for a couple of yearswith the Yankees and still managed to pitch pretty well.but this is a big loss for fantasy.Braddish finishes a top 20 pitcher in both Rotoand head-to-head points last year.We just did a mock draftwhere he went 200 first overall.
01:46Chris, I know you wrote an article specificallyabout this and some other injuries.Is that low enough?200-first overall?Yeah, I think that's pretty low.So I'm fine with that.I'm trying to remember,I literally just did this
02:01and I can't remember where he cameout in the overall, but it was around221.I think it was SP60-ish for me.And the thing about thatis that's either way too high or waytoo low, right? And I leantowards it being too high.
02:19If I'm being honest,I think the likeliest outcome isthis ends up being kind ofa lost season for Kyle Bradish, unfortunately,becausethere aren't a lot of,there are examples of guys pitchingthrough UCL strains, but that means there's some damage to the ligament,
02:38and that's never a good thing.I don't want to overreact, but I think you have to drop him really low.It doesn't mean you can't draft him.There's certainly some upside.And look, we're drafting in that same range, guys like Max Scherzer and, you know,Walker Bueller's going a little ahead of him.He has plenty of questions.So it's not like there are not like the range I have him in has,
03:03you Darvish, Michael King, Shane Boz, and Max Scherzer.That seems pretty reasonable, right?Yeah, and I moved into the same range.I moved Kyle Bradish to 68th in my starting pitcher rankings,so that's behind like Tristan McKinsey and Bryce Miller,who I'm low on and read Detmer's.But ahead of like Brandon Fott,I have my head of Luis Severino,
03:27Kentimae, James Paxton.You know, it's a bit different from like Max Scherzerbecause Scherzer,he could always suffer a setback, I guess.But Scherzer, it's like,you know you won't have him for months,but then you should have him after that.In Bradish's case,
03:43well, he may be ready soon after the start of the season,but if he's not ready soon after the season,you're probably not getting him at all.So it's a little more all or nothing.There's potentially a more immediate award,but the worst case scenario is more likely in Bradish's case.And it's also worse.pointing out, he could stay healthy and just pitch poorly as a result of that. That is true too.
04:09And that's actually probably the worst case scenario. Probably. Yeah. It depends how poorly we'retalking about. I mean, does he get, does ERA rise a run? You could still live with that. But, you know,he might just get shellacked. And in which case, I don't think he'd last very long. They'd probablywant to do something to elbow at that point. I want to say that when I first saw this for Kyle Braddish,It was first reported as a UCL tear and with a lot of negative undertones.And I was like, yeah, this seems like we're just delaying the inevitable.I'm out.But then I went and read the comments from Orioles GM, Mike Elias.
04:53The article called it a sprain.I understand there's not, there's technically not a distinction there.That's the thing.A sprain is a tear.It is.But I feel like the choosing of the term is intentional, right?There are times when they choose, when it's reported, reporters choose to call it a tear.There are times when reporters choose to call it a sprain.
05:16And I imagine there's a degree of severity behind that thinking.Or, you know, it's, it's, it's assessing degree of severity.What people, I think, when they think of these things, the layman, I guess.sprain is what would be termed a grade one sprain or maybe a grade two sprain where the ligament is still intact, but there is damage to it.I think when we use tear, we tend to mean tear, right?Completely broken.Right.From a medical perspective, though, a sprain is a tear.
05:56And so I do wonder if this is a situation where,it's February 15th.He's not going to pitch in games for three weeks.He wouldn't have been pitching in a game for two or three weeks anyway.So let's just downplay the severity for now.Let me read what Mike Elias said because it kind of changed my thinking.He said about Kyle Bradish's elbow,everything is pointed in the right direction and going well right now at this time.
06:25But I'm not at a point where I want to start putting a timeline onwhen we're going to see him in major league action.Right now, we're prepping him for a lot of action in 2024,and we're getting him ready for that as expeditiously and responsibly as possible,but there's going to be some time involved.So, like, he sounds really optimistic,and they've known about this injury since January.They've kind of, you know, they've kind of gone through,
06:55gone through a bit of a process with it alreadywhile we're just finding out about it.And they sound optimistic.So it could just be wishful thinking.Obviously, they acquired Corbyn Burnssince they knew about it,which is telling in its own way.But I don't, after reading that,
07:14I'm not going to be completely out on Braddish.Like I said, I'm moving to 68th in my starting pitcher ranking.So I'd want to draft them late if I'm going to draft them.But I'm not opposed to drafting of late.if I feel like the way I've built my team up to that point can tolerate the loss.Ironically, I'd say I'm more likely to draft Kyle Bradish now than before the injury,just because I had him 27th, I think, at starting pitcher.So I wasn't out on him, but I was lower than the consensus to the point where it was unlikely I was ever going to draft him.
07:48And now maybe it's slightly more likely that I draft him.Yeah.And at that point in the draft, if he's going outside the top,200, you can get him as a bench piece and you can afford to take on a risk like that.Obviously in a deeper league, it's a little bit tougher, but a 10 or a 12 team league,you might be able to pull that off. The next Orioles news item was that John Means is a monthbehind schedule because of a flare-up in his surgically repaired elbow from last October.That's now two names down in the Orioles rotation.
08:16Roster resource added Tyler Wells and Cole Irvin to the mix.They also have two pitching prospects, Chase McDermott and Kate Povich.who could push for a spot in that rotation as well.Obviously, until somebody returns,whether that be Braddish or John Means at some point,maybe they sign somebody, who knows.But this is what we're looking at.This is the reality that we're looking at right now.
08:38Scott, what do you think happens with the Orioles rotation?Any enthusiasm for someone like Tyler Wellswho actually pitched really well last year?Yes, I have a lot of enthusiasm for Tyler Wells.In the first half, he was basically the Orioles ace.he came onhe madehe earned his place
08:56in fantasybefore Kyle Bradish didand I waspretty surprisedwhen they removed himfrom the rotationand I thought it wasjust to kind of
09:06calm down theinnings accumulationbuthe never ended upmaking it backin the rotationdid helet me double
09:13check thatI don't thinkwhen he came backin Septemberit was just in reliefso I thinkI think Tyler Wellsthere's more of a question than there was with John Means about whether he'll have a rotation spot,
09:29he's got to win it, he's got to hold on to it, that wasn't a question with John Means.But I think if we're just, if we're going to assume Tyler Wells has the rotation spot,then I think he's has the potential to be better in fantasy than John Means would have been.He is an amazing control pitcher.he's an extreme fly ball pitcherand he's a pretty good strikeout pitcherand really that last item is what distinguishes him from John MeadsI think they both are well suited for that ballpark
10:03I think their controlmakes them like whip specialistsbut Wells can actually get a decent number of strikeouts tooand with that offense backing himyeah I'm interested in him as the late roundsleeper. I'll be really interested if it looks like he's the clear front runner.Did you move him up in your rankings yet, Tyler Wells?I haven't yet. I moved Braddish down, but I haven't.
10:29I didn't think to move Wells up at that time. It's just a rush job.Yeah. I moved him up inside of my top 90 starting pitchers, and obviously there's an argumentfor him to be higher than that, but I have him in a similar range as Luis Severino, JamesPaxton, Taj Bradley, all guys that I think have a decent amount of upside. Yeah. So it felt likekind of the right range to move Tyler Wells to,but obviously he is on our draft boardand someone that you can look at as a late round sleeper.I did want to quickly, again, mention the name.
10:58Just someone you should know,Chase McDermott.He's a pitching prospect in their organization.Last year in the Miners, 310 ERA, 115 whip,well over a strikeout or ending.He has a great fastball, great curve ball,but really bad control.We're talking over four walks per night at AAA,
11:14over five walks per nine at AA,but he's a name to know.Sticking with the Orioles,we learned that Gunner Henderson's spring will be delayed due to a strained oblique.As things stand right now, the Orioles do not believe opening day is in jeopardy.But Chris, as we know, obliques can be very tricky.Will you lower Gunner Henderson at all in the rankings?Not right now, no.
11:35We'll see if by the time we get to games, he's still not swinging, maybe I'll consider it.But it's worth keeping in mind.We're a month and a half away from the start of the season.And that's the kind of thing where if he suffered an oblique injury today, he still might be back for the start of the season.So I definitely don't.Like, it's worrying.It's a risk.But not enough to move a guy like Gunner Henderson down in my rankings.
12:06Did you drop Corey Seeger behind Gunner Henderson when Seeger had his hernia surgery?I believe so, yes.Are you going to think about switching that now, putting Seeger back?ahead of Henderson?Because that's the only thing I considered with regard to moving Henderson down.Maybe I drop them back behind Seeger.No, because I actually, the problem is I have two players in between them right now.And I don't think I want to move Gunner Henderson below Boba Shatter, Ellie, Dela Cruz, who I do have behind.
12:36Yeah, they all play the same position.Yeah.Yeah.So that's where it's really jumbled up there.And I'll think about it, right?And see what the reports look like in the next.couple of days. I don't even know if Gunner Henderson has reported to camp, so we don't know whatyou know shape he's in specifically, but I'm inclined to leave him where he is for now. I don't think
12:56there's any reason to move him. What about you, Scott? Gunner Henderson or Corey Seeger, if you'redrafting today for some crazy reason. Yeah, I'm leaning toward putting Seeger back ahead of him.I was already not totally sure. I was already kind of feeling like maybe I dropped Seeger too much,dropping him to what would be the end of round three in my rankings.And so I think this Gunner-Henderson injury might be an excuse to move Seeger up a little.I expect Seeger.I expect Henderson to be ready for opening day,so I don't want people to misinterpret that as me being worried about Henderson,
13:37but it's just it was already such a close call that that little,it's just the little push I needed, I think, to bump.Seeger up just a slight bit.Yeah, and Seeger has been falling in drafts.As I mentioned, we just did a mock,and I got Seeger at Pick 38,so it was the second pick of round four,and I think that's a totally appropriate time
13:57to take on a risk like that for a playerwith Corey Seeger's upside.Let's take a little break from the newsand get into this week's prospect spotlight.This week we're doing Colson Montgomery,top prospect with the White Sox.Scott has Montgomery ranked 13th in his top 100 prospects,and Montgomery is a 21-year-old shortstop drafted in the first round back in 2021.
14:19Limited to just 64 games in the minors last year where he hit 287 with a 455 on-base percentage,eight homers, a 939 OPS, and he did get up to 37 games at AA.I got to see Coulson Montgomery out in the Arizona Fall League.Kind of a mixed bag, obviously it was a really small sample of what I got to see,but some swing and miss in his game.I also saw him clobber, a 400-foot home.home run off of a left-handed pitcher in the Fall Stars game. Obviously, really impressive.Colson Montgomery actually won the MVP of the Fall Stars game. Scott, how do you project
14:53Montgomery for fantasy long term? Yeah, he's an interesting one. Obviously, I like him. Ihave him 13th. I've seen a few rank lists where he's higher than that. I've seen rank lists wherehe's, you know, 20 or so spots lower than that. So I'm on the more optimistic end withColson Montgomery. It requires a fair amount of projection because he hasn't,hasn't, it isn't a finished product as far as power goes. I think it's fair to say.If you look at his minor league home run totals, you'll come away underwhelmed. It's worth notingthere's some mistime to injuries in there. He slugged 484 last year between his three minor leaguestops. I don't think we've gotten to see Colson Montgomery's final form.
15:40in the minors yet.And so that might lead to some skepticism.But you mentioned when you watch him, you see that the power's there.He's six foot four.He's big for a short stop.And more than anything, what I like about Colson Montgomery is just how disciplined heis at the plate.You mentioned that 456 on base percentage in the miners last year.
16:04That was even though the stop where he spent the most time,double A, he hit 244, and he still had a 456.on base percentagefor the season.I've seen comps for Colson Montgomeryto like Corey Seeger.That seems a little fanciful.I don't know that he's going to have
16:20quite that batting average upside.But I do thinkif you play in a leaguethat rewards walks,rewards on base skills,Colson Montgomery has a chanceto be a fantasy studwhen he eventually does meet
16:36his power projection.I also think there's a chancewe could see him.him this year.You know,the White Sox brought inPaul DeYoung to playshortstop.
16:44Maybe Nikki Lopezwill get some timethere too.Clearly just placeholdersbecause they knowColson Montgomery isn'tfar away.It may not be until
16:53September, but I dothink as long as hestays healthy, wewill see him this year.One thing that,well, a couple thingsthat come to mindfor me is,
17:03one, the White Sox didfinally get adifferent GM last season.It was the guywho was running theirminor league organization and development.Chris Gets,yeah, former second basement.
17:16Has not been the best team when it comes to developing their prospects over the lastseven or eight years, which I think is the time that Gets has been in charge of thatsituation.I'm not saying he specifically is the problem.I'm just saying that organizationally, you look at Yohan Moncada, I'mJimenez, Luis Robert, andRavon, like this is a team that has had adecent number of truly
17:44elite prospects. Like all four of thoseguys were topfive prospects in baseballat various points. AndLuis Robert's good.Yeah.You know, it's notan organization that has gotten the most
18:00out of their prospects. And thenwith Colson Montgomery, the one thing I'll say isthreestolen bases in threeseasons as a professional, that's a, that, that really narrows the margin for error when you'retalking about a player as young as him, right? And like, is he going to stay at shortstop? Does hehave the power for a corner spot if he has to move? I think these are all fairish questions thatmake me wonder, you know, I see him as like a kind of consensus top 15ish prospect across the board.
18:32And I just, like Scott said, there's a lot of projection involved to get him there. ButFangraph's just released their top100, he's number 11.Baseball prospectus, I think he was number 13.This is allwhere the industry consensusis, and they know him a lot better than I do.So, what do I know?
18:52And remember, if you want to hearabout a specific top prospect on a futuremailbag, leave us a five-star rating onApple podcast, drop the prospect'sname in the review, and we willget to it on a future show.Let's take our first break. When we return,we will get to some other news
19:07and notes here on fantasy baseball today.Welcome back in. Let's get to the other newsand notes items, not Baltimore Orioles related.Apparently, Justin Verlander is a couple of weeks behindschedule because of a hiccup in his shoulder.It's not exactly what you want to hear about a soon-to-be41-year-old pitcher, but it looks like he was already throwingat camp. Scott, any additional concern here with Verlander
19:31outside of him just being old?No, but that is not a small issue.particularly since we saw him be considerably less dominant last year,and even two years ago when he won the Cy Young Awardin terms of missing bats and stuff, he seemed to be showing his age.So now if we're already having health concerns for Verlander,at his costs, I think I'm pretty much out on him.It just seems like there's too much that can go wrong.
20:03The ADP for Verlander 116.2 as the 35th startingpitcher off the board. I think I agree. I haven't ranked in that range, but that's kind of a range ofpitchers that I don't typically target. The 30 to 40 range in ADP, I just kind of usually skip past that.And once we get back into like outside the top 40 pitchers in ADP, names like Carlos Rodon or Chris Sale orU. Darvish, that's where I kind of want to jump back in and scoop up my SP3 or SP4, whatever it might be.But yeah, I'm never really inclined to draft Justin Verlander.probably not for me this year either.Shane Baz will be built up slowly coming out of spring training.
20:42He underwent Tommy John surgery back in September of 2022.Has not thrown a professional inning since July of that same year.Projection systems have Baz for between 90 and 115 innings this year.So that kind of accounts for something like this happening,him just getting off to a slow start, whatever it might be.His ADP is 205.4 as the 59 starting pitcher off the board.Chris, do you plan to move Shane Baez down after hearing this?Or was this just part of the expectation with him?
21:13I mean, I never ranked him expecting 160 innings or anything.You're hoping, I think, for it's probably too much to say like Tyler Glass now last season because that's a really high bar.But like that kind of really, really good pitcher for maybe 120, 130 inning.So the problem is he's never even done that in a season.His career high is 92, I believe, in 2021.So, yeah, actually, even like 120 is probably pretty iffy.I'll move him down just like I moved Walker Bueller down.When I first made out my rankings, I was assuming, okay, these guys are more than 18 months removed from Tommy John at that point.
22:01So they're going to be ready to go on opening day.I wonder if this is going to become the new standardfor pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery,particularly when they pitch for contenderslike the Dodgers and Rays are.It makes sense.You know, they're going to have a limited number of innings.Why not just begin their season later
22:21so that you can have their inningswhen you need them more after you've lost other pitchers to injuries,you know, when you're fighting for a playoff spot,and you give them more time to heal that way.You put less pressure on them rushing back.So I think it makes sense.And maybe teams should have been doing this all along.And, you know, it just might have to change the way we think about pictures returning from Tommy John surgery in the future.
22:48In Boz's case, and yeah, one thing this makes me think of like Andrew Painter last year, remember he had the injury, I think in spring training.Yep.Tried to rehab it.They end up having the service.towards the end of the season right around September, right?I think it might have been sooner than that.Maybe in the summer months, July or August, but second half, I believe.But like, that kind of just wipes out the whole next year.
23:13And so I think it's also partially a timing thing with Baz in particular, where he had thesurgery at the end of 2021, 2022.There was just no way for him to get any innings in last year.Like, I guess he could have gone to the Arizona Fall League, but like that.that's still 13 months after having the surgery.So I think the problem there was there was just,if he could have gotten 40 innings last year,I think that makes it a lot easier to ramp him up this year,
23:45but because both him and Bueller just didn't pitch at all last year,or Bueller pitched three innings, whatever it was.I think that just really complicated things.But like Scott said, it also might just make sense to do that.You have to, you get to avoid the,Yuri Perez issue last year that was just super awkward for everyone where they justshut him down because they were in a playoff run.The Dodgers and the raise, I think to a lesser extent, because they're margin for
24:12air is slimmer.But the Dodgers, if Walker, Bueller and Tyler Glass now, if there are 30 inthe regular season, but they're ready to go six innings by the postseason, I think they'reperfectly fine with that outcome.They're going to make the playoffs either way.The race, obviously, they don't have that much of a luxury, so they will need those guysin the regular season.You know,
24:31Springs is coming backand Rasmussen as well.So,like,we'll see some of those guysand then they need them.But,yeah,
24:39what was the reporton Jeffrey Springs today?Was it June July?June July,yeah.That seems aggressive.Well,his was a flex restraint,
24:47right?I,you know,maybe,maybe,I,I remember it as Tommy John,but I guess,
24:55I guess,I would be.No,okay,he had Tommy John.Okay,yeah.So that's,
24:59that's just like,13 months.Later?Yeah.That's crazy.Yeah.It does seem pretty aggressive, but...I mean, it happened before.
25:07Crazy maybe isn't the right word,but it's certainly the other end of the spectrumfrom what we're hearing with Baz and Bueller.Yeah.Let's move on to next up,per John Morosi, Yuri Perez.We'll have a yet-to-be-determinedinnings limit this season.
25:20He got up to 128 total innings last year.And I don't know if they'll ever eventually revealwhat this limit is or we'll just start to notice,like, oh, hey,we're going to skip Yuri Perez this time through the rotation.And next thing you know, it's the end of the season.And he has like 150 or 160 innings.Chris, do you have a guess on what that number might be?
25:41And does this hold back your love at all for Yuri Perez?Not even a little bit.I was looking at, you know, Kyle Bradish, what he did last season.Completely different situation, but just this was the example that could jump to mine.Made 30 starts last year.He threw 168 innings.Less than six innings per start.You'd prefer to get to six innings per start.
26:01but that's probably not going to happen for a player as young as Yuri Perez.There's going to be a lot of 87 pitch, five-inning starts where he looks really good,and we get a little frustrated.But I think 170 innings is well within the realm of possibility.I don't think that would be dangerous at all.He threw 132 last year between the majors and the minors, I think.So like 128, getting to 170 is only a 42-inning jump.That seems perfectly reasonable.
26:28It's within the range.of what the jump was last season.I think we'll see a similar jump this year.So maybe they skip his turn in the rotation a couple times.I don't think we're going to get a shutdown from Yuri Perezunless the Marlins are like way out of it in Septemberand they just cut a season short a little bit.But I think Yuri Perez is just going to get used pretty normally.
26:51Kenley Jansen is dealing with lat soreness.And we've also heard his name pop up in some trade rumors this off season.Scott, if something were to happen to Jansen,whether it's injury or trade related,who's next up? Is it Chris Martin orsomebody who doesn't make the rotation like a Garrett Whitlockor a Tanner Halk?Yes. Yes. It's
27:10Chris Martin or somebody who doesn't make the rotationlike Garrett Whitlock or Tanner Halk. Yes.There's no obvious option there, I think is the takeaway.All right. Josh Hater has officially been namedthe Astros closer so we can put any of that hoopla out of bed.Blue Jays manager John Schneider confirmed that newly signedYariol Rodriguez will be a starting pitcher for the team, which that's what we heardwhen they announced his signing. And so that's what they're sticking with.
27:40It sounds like a clear competition for the team's fifth starter job betweenRodriguez and Alec Manoa, which so far everything has sounded glowingly for Alec Manoa,but I guess let's see him in games.Lost a lot of weight supposedly, though. He looked good. I saw a couple clips of him pitching.He looked good. He grew his hair out. It looks great.I will sayYoro Rodriguezwhat did he throw
28:05the last time hebecause he didn't pitch it alllast seasonthere was the contractdispute he was trying to get outof his contract in Japanso he didn't pitch last seasonhe threw like
28:1450 something inningsI think his final year in Japanlike I don't seehow he's going to be a starterI just I don'tthink that that's going tomake sensehe pitched
28:2954 innings in 2020.Six last year, I think, in the World Baseball Classic and then none in competitive games.Obviously, he was throwing, but, but like, I don't see how Yarra Rodriguez is a full-timestarter this year in any way.I'm not even sure.Like, I think he's in a really interesting talent.I loved, I thought he looked really good in the World Baseball Classic last year.It was really impressive, but he's kind of a two-pitch pitcher.
28:58Yeah.And I don't think he's, I don't think either like his fastball for having a fastball and something else.I don't think his fastball as hard as it is profiles as like a bat missing fastball.And he walks too many guys.I don't have high hopes for Yario Rodriguez either.Some fun pitch mix items that I read.Kodai Senga hinted that he could be adding something new to his arsenal this year.And Terek Skubel has been, quote, tinkering with his slider and curveball in the offseason.
29:27Finally, some Reds news.Noel V. Marte is not yet running at full speedafter suffering a hamstring strain in late Novemberin the Dominican Winter League.And Jonathan India is still battling.Planta fasciitis in his left foot.There was an article that basically saidEllie De La Cruz is the shortstop.
29:44Matt McLean is the second baseman.J. Mer Candelario is going to play somewhere.They don't know exactly where.It's first, third base, or DH.He will be in the lineup.So that leaves two spots availablefor Encarnacion.trend, Noel V. Marte, and Jonathan India.
30:00This is when I say life finds a way in these situations, this is what I mean, right?Like, I'm starting to think Noel V. Marte is just not on the opening day roster,which still leaves nine guys for eight spots.But Jonathan India hasn't been able to work out in the outfield like he was supposed tothis offseason. That was one of the details from his plantophysitis issue, that he'sprobably only going to be an infielder, or at least they're not going to be comfortable with him inthe outfield right away. So it, you know, it starts to look a little better for Spencer Steer there, right?Where he's the only one of those infield guys who has the corner outfield skill set. So, yeah,
30:42I don't know. It, I think before at some point, this may be an issue. I think it probably gets solvednaturally.I don't know why we're so stressed about a hamstring injury suffered in November.I mean, if Noel V. Marte isn't ready to go by the end of March from a hamstring injurysuffered in November, I mean, what kind of hamstring injury is this?Was it detached from the bone?That sounds insane.That's like two thirds of a, missing two thirds of a season with a hamstring injury.
31:15But isn't it a little weird that it's still a problem now in mid-February?I mean, it depends what you mean by a problem.You know, I don't know what that means exactly.And so I'm reluctant to say, I don't know.I'm reluctant to like move Noel V. Marte down in my rankings.I mean, the upside is so big.Yeah.And he was so good in his late season trial.
31:39And it's not like, it's hard to fit them all in the same lineup.It's not hard to fit them all on the same roster.You know, it's not like somebody has to go to the minorsbecause there's not room for them on the roster.Yeah, I'm not moving Marte down yet.And I do think it's interesting that this reportkind of fastens Matt McLean to second baseand Ellie De LaCruz to shortstop
32:04rather than having McLean play some shortstophaving Ellie de la Cruz play some third base.And if we're removing an option from third base,that almost hints that, okay, Noel V. Marte has to be there then.I'm skeptical that they actually are going to just makeEllie de la Cruz an everyday shortstop,just make Matt McLean in everyday short second baseman.I think there's a lot of value to keeping them versatile.
32:29But that's what the report's saying.I don't know.There's a lot of interesting inferences you can make from this,but those are the ones I make.All right, let's get into your questions here on the mailbag.First up from our Apple Podcast reviews,this one's from Cohn Jomalo.I'm in a 15 team head-to-head categories.
32:48Dynasty League, six-by-six.The added categories are OPS and holds.I'm currently rebuilding and want to trade Al-Tubefor some youth or Ute.What sort of prospect would you want in return?I'm thinking of asking for Jason Dominguezand Edward Julian from a teamthat's currently in their competitive window.
33:10I would say if you can get those two,you're doing pretty well for Al-Tube.I just don't know how realistic that is.Yeah, I agree.I mean, I have Jason Dominguez as a top 10 prospect.And you're getting a pretty goodsecond, like future option at second base in Julianfor a 15-team league,
33:31giving away a guy in his mid-30s in Altuve.That seems like an acceptable return.Obviously, the guy has to say yes.Do you think, realistically,just thinking about both sides of the tradethat you can getat least Dominguez forAltuveska.
33:52I would hope.Given that he'sin redraft leagues,somebody who's drafted in the first three rounds,it's hard for me to saybecause I don't know obviouslyall the details of the Dynasty Leagueand you couldn't provide them
34:09in a way that would make for a good listen anyway.But like every Dynasty Leaguehas its own little economyand it's hard as an outsider with very limited informationto know how that economy works.But given the dynasty leagues I play in,that seems like it should be doable.Yeah.
34:30I would say, obviously, like go to any teams that are competingand whoever needs a second base,obviously scour their prospects,like, shoot for the top.I mean, what do you have to lose?And then, you know, if that gets declined,maybe move to the next option.But don't sell yourself short either.
34:44So it's kind of this weird give and take.But yeah, that's what I would recommend with Altuve there.This one's from Kyrin 225.I play in a 12-team 5-5-Roto Auction Keeper League.That's a lot.With no AL Central.All right.Could you go over a list?
35:03I don't know if he's just saying.How do you set up a league that way?There's no AL Central players in this league or he just doesn't want anything to do with the AL Central.I think it's probably the former though.Probably the former.Yeah.Could you go over a list of players to stashthat could be flipped at the trade deadline?
35:20I'm thinking injured slashsuspended players that go for discountsat the draft and will providegreat keeper value and providesDeGrom and Woodruff as an examplethere. We've actually receiveda good amount of emails about thisas well, so I think it's helpful for a lot of
35:36different people. Again, if you play in akeeper league, like later on, your finaltwo or three picks, if you haveunlimited IL spots,there's no harm in doing something like this and trying it.So here were the names that I found.DeGrom and Woodruff again, that makes sense.Walker Bueller, obviously he's discounted
35:54because it sounds like he's going to start on the ILor later into the season.Robbie Ray with the Giants, Alex Cobb also hurt.Not sure how much keeper value he'll have.Jason Dominguez, assuming he's not already kept in that league.Mets prospect Ronnie Maricio could potentially play later on in the year.He tore his ACL while playing winter.ball. Shane Baz, the aforementioned with the Tampa Bay
36:17raised, Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen,Cade Cavali, again, that's kind of like fringy.I don't know how much keeper value he has.Pitchers who won't pitch this year,Shane McClan, San Diego Consorra, Felix Bautista.Did I miss anybody?Tony Gonsolin, though, in a 12-team league.The player pool is diminished because you're leaving out of
36:38division, I guess. So maybe Tony Gonsalin is on thefringes of beingrosterable in that leaguecoming backworking his way backfrom Tommy JohnAndrew Paintercould be one
36:52oh Dustin Maythe other Dodgers pitcheryeah and more valuablethan Tony Gonselin I'd saymaybe Max Meyeryeahhe's coming back from Tommy Johnsurgery so he might actually
37:04just be readyhe's expected to be readyby spring trainingso he's one whocould really shoot upif he has a good yearall rightThis next was from Kill underscore right.
37:15I am in a 10 team head to head-to-head categories league5 by 5 with OBP instead of batting average.We have 10 waiver wire ads every weekand about half the league streams pitchersto win strikeouts and wins,and they always beat me in the finals.What ways should I combat their streaming strategies?Should I spend most of my picks in this upcoming draft
37:36on good quality pitchers?Before you just instantly say no to that.He does have some.pretty awesome hitters as keepers. I don't know how you wound up with all these players.Ronald Acuna, Julio Rodriguez, Bobby Witt, Fernando Tatis, Corey Seeger, O'Neill Cruz.It might make sense to just draft some quality pitchers.Yeah. Although, I mean, if this strategy is so successful, you could just do it too, right?Yeah, that's the problem with the streaming without any kind of reasonable limitations in head-to-head points later.
38:13head-to-head categories league.It's like if it's a dailydaily lineup lock league,what,half the pitching categoriesfor starting pitchers areratio-basedand half are counting stat based.
38:27And you can just punt the ratiosand really run awayand really,you know,increase your chances of winning the two counting stats.And I don't know how you counter it.Like,there should be a weekly,
38:40make limits.There should be a weekly transaction.Well,well,there is.There's 10, but that's a very high.That's a really high number.That's true.
38:48Limit.It should be more like five.It's even worse when a league set up like this in a points league because.Yeah.Yeah, because then there's no downside.The downside risk for a two-star pitcher is much less.Yeah.Because you're kind of, you're semi-punting on ERA and WIP by doing this.
39:07Not, you could still win ERA and WIP, but obviously you're giving yourself less of a chance of it than a person who,who's actually putting quality pitchers in.Though, I mean, a 10-team league,waiver wire quality is pretty high.Yeah, I mean, to some degree,because the league is set up this way,and I'd like to see them limit the waiver wire addsto more like three maybe a week.
39:32Or do just a weekly waiver runrather than a daily waiver run if you're going to have daily lineups.You know what the answer might be here, though?Marmold strategy.I mean, you've already gotsuch an elite offense.But then you can't win K's like there.Well, okay.
39:49You're trying to win ERA and WIP.Yeah, you're not going to win K's,but you can just try to dominate ERA and WIPand the five hitting categoriesbecause you've got such a strong start therewith literally half the first round caliberplayers in the 10-team league.Well, but if you are using your picks
40:06to draft better pitchers,but then still doing what they dowith the streaming of waiver pitchers,you could have the best of both worlds maybeand you don't have to be so...You just, you might not have the guys to drop.I guess it depends if this leaguehas a weekly innings minimum as well
40:25because that wasn't mentioned.So that...I would hope it doesn't.That makes the Marble strategy...Fairly low.Yeah, that makes the Marmal strategya little bit tougher.I mean, for anyone listening who doesn't know,
40:35it's Marble Marble strategy,you basically just punt the counting stats categoriesand you put out a team of relievingand you're trying to win the ratios that way.Yeah, I think the original Marmall strategywas kind of built around James Shieldbecause you'd get like an innings eaterto meet that innings minimum.
40:54You get like an innings eater or twoand then the rest of your linewould be relievers.Yeah, I think it was like the Yahoo lineups alsowhere you have to have two starting pitchers anyway.Oh, maybe that was two.I might have been it to something.Because I've always thought of it as a daily category,
41:10head-to-head category strategy.And that's where Yahoo's,default is. And so I thinkyou have to have two starting pitchers, get too highinning volume guys like Frambervaldezor Aaron Nola. And then just a bunchofideally the Marmall strategy
41:30was middle relievers and a coupleof closers so you're still good in saves.But you just don't invest anything at pitcheroutside of, you know, maybeit's an almost 20 year old strategyand like the whole, like the way pitchers are employed or utilized in the majors now is so different than it was then, I don't know.It's kind of funny that we still talk about it.Carlos Marmal didn't even seem like a good fit for the strategy because his whip was so high, but whatever.
42:01Yeah.Anywho, let's take our final break when we return.We'll get to your emails here on Fantasy Baseball today.Welcome back in.Let's get to your emails, Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.That's the letter I.This one's from Noah, dear Dave, Chris and Kurt.Hmm.
42:21Do you guys have any idea?Well, Chris should be revealing, but I don't know a K-R-I-S-T.No.Frank, no?No, I was going to take a guess as to who Dave was.And it looks like-It's Nirvana.That's exactly who it is.
42:41Yeah, Dave Girl.Yeah.But.Hmm.Kurt Cobain, and who's Chris?Chris Nova Selleck, the basest.I have a loaded 12-team Keeper League,where you keep 10 players, and he lists all these off.
42:54Acuna, Ellie, J-Rod, Seeger, Matt Olson,Tristan Kosses, Luis Castillo, Lazzardo,Merrill Kelly, Andrus Munoz.I can probably trade Julio,who's a $16 keeper,and Andrus Munoz, or Merrill Kelly.For Spencer Strider, who is a $12 keeper,and Junior Camerero, a $6 keeper.
43:14Should I make the move to shore up my staff or stick with the dominant offense?So, yeah, I mean, this person, even if they trade Julio Rodriguez, still pretty stacked offense.What do you guys think?But Castillo Lazzardo, that's a pretty strong start for a pitching staff too.So it's not like you need Spencer Strader's going to help.but we all haveHulia Rodriguez as a more valuablepick. So I think I pass.
43:49Yeah, I mean,just the waypitchersprogress, thetrajectory of their careersis so unpredictable.And you got Spencer Strider, who'syou know,
44:07whose whole thing depends onthis superpoweredfastball that may, who knows how it's going to last, who knows if his arm's going to last.Julio Rodriguez at $16 right now, I mean, you might be keeping him for a decade.I just, I think that's, I think you cling to a keeper like Julio Rodriguez at a discountlike that with everything you have.This next one's from James.Hello, Brandon, Alex, Aaron, Kevin, and John.
44:36This one I don't actually know, so I assume it's not a music thing.There's never been five people on this podcast.Chris, you sure about that?You sure about that?Am I missing something?No, it's not music related.I just, I wanted to test you.Yeah, I don't, I'm thinking about it.
44:57I can't.I assume it's a baseball thing, but I don't know.I'll give you guys some time while we answered the question.I saw it in the email, so I cheated.What do you make of batters with extreme lefty, righty splits?Can you take advantage of this from a.fantasy perspective. For example, Lane Thomas crushed lefties last year. Outside of a dailylineup league, I'm not so sure you can. I mean, next thing you know, you try and bench Lane
45:25Thomas for a week where he faces, I don't know, five or six righties. And if he somehow pops liketwo homers and a steel, you're going to be mad that you bench him. So yeah, I mean, if it's a shallowthree outfielder league, there might be justification to do that. But not, not when you'reI mean, if we're talking about drafting, I don't see much.I don't think much thought needs to go into it at all,unless you think it's going to affect their playing time.Lane Thomas had a 743 OPS against lefties in 2022.Like, I think most of the research indicates that while there are certainly righties with big platoon splits,
46:04it's not as big of a thing for right-handed hitters as lefties.So, like, I think you mostly think about it in terms of like,can Ellie de la Cruz hit lefties well enough to remain an everyday player, that kind of thing?More so than, I think it's maybe something to be avoided rather than something to chase, if that makes sense.Yeah, sometimes I use splits, specifically lefty on lefty to maybe deter myself from drafting them,though everybody might not feel that way I get. Sometimes it's baked into the price.You know, like you guys talked about that with Jazz Chisholm on yesterday's podcast.So sometimes that's already factored in,
46:44but for a young player, if he struggles against lefties,maybe he's not going to be an everyday player.So that's something to keep in mind there.By the way, those names are the first names of the managers in the AL East.Brandon Hyde, Alex Cora, Aaron Boone,Kevin Cash, and John Schneider.Yeah, there you go.From Aaron, hey, I was listening to the outfield preview
47:07and was thinking about going after Trout this year.My league is a six-by-six with Oeastern.P.S. added so he's even better.His biggest issue has been injuries, and while Otani leaving hurts the lineup,if it lets Trout DH a ton, that could keep him healthy enough to rebound nicely.Who else would they DH?He's an average defender at this point, so I could see him playing DH like 100 times this year.If I'm missing something, let me know, but a career high starts at DH could get Trout to 140 plus games,
47:36and if injuries contributed to his worst performance and he rebounds a rebounds a little,on average, he could give you first round numbers.This was not something we talked about,so I think it's slightly interesting.They have some names they can kind of shuffle in and out there,like Brandon Drury, I don't think is necessarily a good fielder,so they could do stuff like that.The only thing I worry about is, like,
47:59Trout feels like a really prideful guy who wants to play the field,so I don't know that he's going to want a DH,but I don't know.Maybe he doesn't have a side.Is that from Mike Trout?I don't get much of anything from Mike Trout, to be honest.Well, they wanted to move him out of center field a couple years ago.Yeah.
48:14He was like adamant that he wouldn't move, so I don't know.Oh, well, I don't know.I just, I kind of dispute that he's an average defender now, for one thing.I mean, his 85th percentile in range, that's, he's still playing center field.Yeah, the metrics are still okay.So that's one thing.I don't know.He's not playing 100 games at DH, unless it's like a Byron Buxton situation where,
48:41an injury forces him to DH.That's just not going to happen.Well, also, he'll, he'll,maybe he'll get to play a couple dozen games at DH.Yeah, I think it could help,but I think the other,who plays center field if Mike Trout doesn't.His defensive war looks pretty bad on Fangraphs.
49:01Yeah.I, I'm not sure Mickey Moniac's much better.Fair.Certainly didn't rate out better life,but like who else on the,the roster can evencan Aaron Hicks still play center field?I don't know if he was playing much last year in center.
49:17Yeah.No, he hasn't played center field since 2019, it looks like.I wonder what goes into that.Oh, no, he played, okay, he played center.Because Trout has a positive defensive war on baseball reference.And like I said, the fielding sliders on a stat cast page are red other than arm value,which is 49th percentile.Yeah, I think the bigger thing is just,
49:41They don't have a better option.Like, Aaron Hicks was really bad in center field by all the metrics.Mickey Moniac hasn't rated well there.I think that's the bigger thing with there.Like, I would love to see Mike Trout DH 30 times, like just Sundays maybe.Just, you know, be the DH and help them stay healthy.But that is a possibility.I think it's unlikely he's going to be like a full-time DH.
50:04That's fair.Yeah.Not as much as this email suggested.But I do think it's there and it's possible.possible Trout DHS more.It could help.But yeah, probably not as much as you were wondering.I mean, I think just to say it quickly again,
50:21Trout in round four seems like a good value to me.I don't see him producing like a first rounder.He's probably going to miss some time with injury.But, you know, he plays 135 games.He'll be a great value in round four.This next one's from Sheldon.Perhaps you've answered this before.You talk a lot about players entering contract years.
50:41Is there reliable evidence that this is a thing that players don't try as hard in other years,then suddenly ramp it up in contract years?To be fair, I am the one who brings up contract years the most on this podcast.I don't know that Scott or Chris really care much about it at all or have data that supports it.Sometimes I say it in just, I mean, I think sometimes people just want to know who's entering a contract year.From what I know, there is data that supports players are more likely to stay on the fieldand maybe play through some nagging injuries more so in a contract year compared to non-contract years.So I think that's something that maybe can help with playing time, but outside of that, not so much.
51:24You guys have anything?Yeah, my understanding is the same as yours.And then, you know, a lot of the research that I'm going on there is like, we're talking pretty early.baseball sabermetric stuff.I think I've got a paperback copy of like baseball between the numbers bybaseball prospectus staff from like 2007.So maybe things have changed since the last time.I'm trying to find,
51:54I'm trying to like look if there's been anything updated since.But yeah,my understanding is it's players generally don't play like significantly better.They do tend to play more in contract years.All right.this next one's from.Okay.No, I'm looking at one from 2014.
52:13Okay.The adjusted OPS of a free agent hitter in his contract year is expected to be 6.7% greater thanin non-contract year periods, higher than previously noted studies.Secondly, retiring players show a decline in their contract year performance and anymodels which ignore retirement will be miss specified.So yes, there does appear to be a contract year effect.That was from the Society for American Baseball Research.search the, I believe, Saber, the titular Saber metrics.
52:45That's all.Yeah.I don't, I don't really factor it into my analysis, but.Right, because it's the kind of thing that even if you can come up with like an, on the average it does.Well, for some players it is, for some players it isn't.Like, it's such a, it's, it's such a like psychological mental thing that just some players are going to be completely unaffected by it.And maybe some players will be highly affected by it.You know, it's, it's, it's hard.
53:09to say. Andpsychologically, we remember thethe great contract years. We don't rememberthe bad ones. I'll give you one right now.Aeronola last year. Contract year.Did not pitch well. So.Still got a seven year deal. He still got a seven year deal.That's exactly right. It's like the home run derby.
53:25There might be something there.But I think it's mostlya, hey, rememberwhen phenomenon rather thansomething that you should really bake intolike your projections models or anything.I will say this.Pete Alonzo, if he stays healthy,
53:40he's hitting 50 home runs this year.I feel really confident that's going to happen.But he hit 48 last year, right?46, yeah.With a wrist injury, you know?That's crazy.That's just Pete Alonzo should hit 50 home runs.Right. This one's from David.
53:53I am in a 10-team Keeper League.Points League, you keep 12 plus two prospects.Pitchers are valued higher in general due to scoring,but it's close enough to a typical points league.Grade the trade.I give up Framber Valdez,Shane Baz, Ryan Pepio.I get Fernando Tatis,
54:12Emmett Sheehan.I don't have much offense,and I have a lot of pitching.Thanks.I think that's a B plus.Yeah, you win the trade.B plus sounds good to me.All right, this one's from Anonymous
54:26because half of his league listens to the podcast.All right.Dear Hanager and Hot Dogs,Austin Hedges, and Joe Panic.I've just got to let you guys knowbecause you'll never get it.Apparently, these are namesthat are involved in team names
54:42that Scott has liked over the years.All right.Okay.I don't remember what those team names are, by the thing.I mean, Joe Panic is one.Joe Panic at the,Joe Panic at the Chance Ciscohas always been one of my favorite
54:56that's good.Team names. So I'm sure that's, that's part of that.I had my own team namedHanigers and Hosk Dongs.like dongs hit by Reese HoskinsYeah, I like itThere you goI'm in a 12 team Roto League
55:12With no bench bots unless they are officially on the ILOr in the minorsThey are in your starting lineupCould you give a few playersThat should be valued more in this formatOr less in this formatSo I thought this was interestingAnd I don't know
55:26Let's just do this publicly ChrisWe haven't announcedYou are going to be an AL labor this yearSo yay congratsLet's go ChrisYeah we're both gonna be downat first pitch Florida.I'm in NL only labor.
55:37You're an AL only labor.This is the same format.So I thought it was kind of an interesting talking point.Whoever you draft...Yeah, please talk me through it.Whoever you draft is in your lineup,unless they get hurt or unless they get sent to the IL.And what I found interesting was that people during the auction salary cap draft,
55:57almost every team left with either a player in the minors or a hurt playerin their lineup.And then whoever they would draft in the reserve rounds,they would, you know, and that's how it works.Like you get five reserve players,and those are the only players that you can kind of put in and out of your lineup.So I thought that was interesting.And it's obviously something I'll try to do this year.
56:20But my guess is, unless you just want to get like a minor leagueer or an injured player,I think that's a fair strategy.You probably just want to play it mostly safe,especially if it's a deeper league like that.You know, you just, you want guys that are going to play, right?That are going to be in your lineup.So.But then again, like, if they get hurt, then you can actually take them out.
56:41Yeah, that's the thing is that like Byron Buxton's going to give you some roster flexibility in this format.Whereas.Yeah.Well, I think I think the concern would be somebody who you're not confident in the playing time,not necessarily because it'll get hurt.You're just not confident in the role, which obviously in a big roto lineup with only the AL or the NL play.player pool. It's kind of hard to avoid drafting at least one of those guys.Yes.
57:12But yeah, I think as a general rule in A L&L only any way you want to play it,it's safe. There's so much value just to a guy who gets at bats,which doesn't mean you need to draft Nikki Lopez necessarily.But it does mean those aren't the formats for taking big swings unless you're talking aboutfor bench bots, you know.Yeah. And I think the.other thing I would think is like, I'm trying to think of a good example. And maybe like JoseCaballero is a good example of a guy who could end up losing his job, but stay on the race
57:46roster as a utility man or a bench guy. Yeah. And that I feel like is the biggest trap.Yep. Where like Caboero actually might be a pretty decent fantasy option because he, you know,he could steal some bases and be a decent player for them. But the worst case scenario,there is you draft him as your middle infielder in an AL only.And then this is really only a concern for AL or NL only.Yeah, I realize we kind of turn this into an AL only and L only chat.Because I don't think it really changes how you approach a mixed league.Yeah, I agree with that.
58:21Because, you know, while talking it out, you know, if someone's bad and he's in your lineupand he doesn't get sent down and he's not hurt, you probably just want to drop that playeranyway, right?So I don't know.that it should really change much in a 12-team roto league.Yep.But in NL and A, only, yeah, Jose Caballero is a kind of guy who could end up being, and let's say a Will Benson for the Reds could be another guy who you draft late, you think he's going to have a decent role, turns out he's playing twice a week.That's where I think you could really get hurt by this limitation.
59:01But in a mixed league, I don't think there's enough relevant players for that to actually really be at risk.All right.We're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris.I am, Frank.Thanks as always for tuning in to fantasy baseball today.Please make sure to follow and leave a five star rating on Apple or Spotify.And we'll be back again next week.Bye-bye.