Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨Kyle Tucker Traded to the CUBS! Devin Williams Traded to the YANKEES! (12/13 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 14, 2024

Kyle Tucker was traded to the Chicago Cubs for Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski and prospect Cam Smith (3:15)! ... How early should Tucker be drafted (6:34)? ... Isaac Paredes and the Astros are a match made in heaven (8:50). ... What about the rest of the Astros' return (12:56)? ... Matt Shaw has an opportunity with the Cubs (19:20). ... What are the other ripple effects for the Astros (22:57)? ... Devin Williams was traded to the Yankees for Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin (27:05)! ... Trevor Megill should be the closer for the Brewers (32:00). ... Nestor Cortes looks like he'll be in the Brewers' rotation (35:51). ... Caleb Durbin could get playing time with the Brewers (39:37). To display your continued support of the show, please vote Fantasy Baseball Today in the Sports Podcast Awards in the "Best Baseball Podcast" Category https://www.sportspodcastgroup.com/sports_category/best-baseball-podcast/ Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Happy Cocoa Friday and welcome in to a belated emergency edition of fantasy baseball today on Friday the 13th. I am, for example, joined by Chris Towers. What a day. What a week it's been, Chris. Kyle Tucker traded to the Chicago Cubs. It is a lot of fun. Devin Williams traded over to the New York Yankees. There is a lot to talk about.

Let's begin with the Kyle. Tucker trade. Again, moved over to the Chicago Cubs for corner infielder, Esock Paratus, pitcher Hayden Wesniewski, and third base prospect, Cam Smith, who was a first round pick in this year's draft. Obviously, this is a massive get for the Cubs. Kyle Tucker is one of the 10 best, five best position players in all of baseball, coming off an injury-riddled season, but he was still awesome when he played in 78 games. He hit 289 with 23 home runs, 11 steals, and a 993 OPS, more walks and strikeouts, gold glove defense. Chris, this is the total package. What do you think about Kyle Tucker's

fit with the Chicago Cubs? Kyle Tucker's a good fit anywhere. Yeah, like this is one of those things where it's like, you know, like when we talked about the Garrett Crochet trade early in the week, it's like, well, you know, as long as he stays healthy, it doesn't really matter where he plays, right? Like the skills he showed, well, Kyle Tucker's that, except he's been doing it. for a half decade now. And he has all the physical tools you could want. He has the one of the best approaches at the plate in baseball now. Like he's one of those guys who's just gotten like a little bit better every single

season of his career. He just adds a little bit. And the last couple of years, he's gone from pretty good play discipline to, oh, oh, this is like he walked more than he struck out last year. Yeah. He's got a like 14% strikeout rate the past two seasons and like a 14% walk rate the past two seasons while hitting for power and still being a stolen base threat. It's every single team in baseball could use a player like Kyle Tucker. And he's one of those guys where like, I don't know, maybe you're going to ask like, oh, yeah, but the line.

The ballpark's not as good. And it's like I don't really care. Like I care about the ballpark for Isok Perrez. Yes. I don't care where Kyle. Tucker's hitting. Like maybe the shape of his production changes a little bit going from one, but like he has such a broad, well-rounded skill set that I just don't worry about where he's playing. I think the lineup is a little less top-heavy than it was in Houston, but overall,

probably a little deeper. So I think that's probably a wash. And he's arguably a top-five pick in fantasy drafts this year probably won't go that high, but I think he's in that discussion. I totally agree, especially when you look at the stackass data for Kyle Tucker. I mean, he crushes the ball. It's premium exit velocities. He hits loud home runs. But in case you just wanted to know, again, I'm with you.

I don't really think this matters too much. Houston ranks ninth in left-handed home run Park Factor, Wrigley Field all the way down at 23rd. So it is a downgrade in Park Factor. He has 133 career home runs. If he played every single career game in Wrigley, he would have 127. So it's not really that big of a difference.

I agree with you on the top half of the Astros versus Cubs lineup. Maybe doesn't have as much protection. You know, there's not really a Yordon Alvarez in the Chicago Cubs lineup. But there are still some pretty good hitters. And if you just look at run score from this past season, the Astros were 11. The Cubs were 12th. That actually kind of surprised me.

So yeah, yeah, and could be more help on the way. We'll talk about Matt Shaw in a little bit. That's a pretty interesting kind of ripple effect here in the Cubs lineup as well. If you look at home road splits for Kyle Tucker's career two, I mean, it is nearly identical home road. It's 866 OPS in Houston and 874 on the road. So I don't really worry too much about that as well. He's my number six player in Roto. And I had no thoughts of.

moving him down after this and I won't. So yeah, it's a fairly easy call. Yeah, the early ADP for Kyle Tucker is 8.2. Chris, how do you feel about Kyle Tucker with the Cubs versus Juan Soto with the Mets? Tucker is six, Soto seven. I think like Gunner Henderson at five, I also think is right there. You know, it kind of Tucker brings a little more speed to the table than Soto. Soto obviously a better hitter overall primarily what we care about, especially in a Roto League, because Soto historically,

especially prior to 2024, has not really maximized his power. City Field a little bit of a parked downgrade. Again, it's not like I care that Svon Soto is getting a parked downgrade, but, you know, it probably matters on the margins for him as a power hitter

because he's a great hitter with power, rather than a great power hitter, if that makes sense. It's, you know, about directions in which he hits the ball. So I have Tucker just ahead, but I had Tucker just ahead before. So it doesn't,

it's not like that's a change for me. I assume you'd take Tucker over Tatee, Smooky Betts, Carol, Julio, that whole group. Yeah, I would take him over Ellie De La Cruz, which is probably the hotter take based on ADP. But I think the well-rounded skill sets, at the top. And, you know, specifically with Tucker who does steal bases is more valuable than Ellie being the standout in one. All right. Let's talk about this return for the Houston Astros.

They get Esok Paredes, Hayden Wesneski, and third base prospect, Cam Smith. Obviously, a dream landing spot for Isok Paredes with that short porch in left field. This is someone that the Astros have actually coveted for a while. They were in trying to get him at the trade deadline. And I had this crazy thought. I almost wonder if the Cubs acquired Paredes with the hope of flipping him to the Astros after the season because it just never made sense

that the Cubs got Paredes. Like his swing didn't make sense in Wrigley Field. They have prospects on the way that can play third base. It just, so I wonder if they were just thinking ahead in that way. But Paratus had 19 home runs this past season. If he played all his games in Houston, that would have been 26.

I mean, he has the most hilarious like expected home runs by park in the entire league because you've got at the high point for his career he would have hit 79 home runs if he played all of his games in Cincinnati or Houston that's the highest mark if he played all of his games in Baltimore he would have had 26 that is just stunning because obviously Isak Paredes has like I don't know never hit a 400 foot home run. I don't know if that's actually true, but it feels true. He did hit one, 409 feet. So I'm wrong on that one. But most of his home runs are

325, 350 feet right down the left field line. He has never hit a home run right of center field. However, you wanted to find that, he is the most Deadpool of all Deadpool hitters, 24% of his batted balls last year were fly balls to the pull side. So yeah, it's a it was a uniquely bad profile for Wrigley Field and we kind of all identified that when the trade happened. It was one of the worst landing spots he could have asked for. This is probably the best. And it's a weird case because for most of the league,

Cy Paredes just doesn't have very much value. Like for the Cubs, you know, they gave up. Christopher Morrell and a pitcher for him, I think. And it was like, well, that was a dumb trade for them. And then he goes to Houston, it's like, oh, this might be like a five-win player in Houston. And it's not the player doesn't change. It's just his skill set match is so much better with their park.

And I think I couldn't quite get him back into the top 12 at third base. I tried. he is 13th for me. I just, even with this park, I can't really, I don't want to put him ahead of Ehio Hsuarez, who like already did that last year. But I think there's a tier now with Matt Chapman, Ehio Hano Suarez, and Isok Paredes at, for me, 11, 12, and 13,

where I think they're basically interchangeable. And obviously, Issaq Paredes is going much, much later than those guys. But to give you some context, he was around 250 in my overall rankings before this. And honestly, that might have been a little high. I could see a, I could have seen a case where Isopredis was just completely useless.

He had like a 600 OPS after getting traded to the Cubs, right? 632. Yeah. So I could have seen like 250 being too high. I moved him up to like 160 after this trade. That's a big jump in the overall rankings, but I think it's justified. because we have seen, this is not speculative.

We have a version of East Stock Parade is in a very good park for his type of swing. He had 31 homers and 98 RBI in 2023 with the race. Yeah. I think that's not an unreasonable expectation for him in 2025. Yep. And on top of that, there's a non-zero chance that he is betting between Jose Altuvae and Jordan Alvarez. So you can't really ask for a better lineup spot in baseball. Like that is one of the prime spots being between those two guys.

So yeah, overall arrows pointing way up for Esoc Paredes. The early ADP is 279.5. He was right behind Connor Norby and Ryan McMahon. And, you know, I wrote here, I think you can get him inside the top 200 around Alec Bohm and Eugenio Swares. Those guys are going ahead of Bowman. Yeah, those guys are going at pick 175. So, yeah, we're pretty much spot on. He's probably going to go somewhere in that 150 to 175 range for Esauk Paredes.

What about the rest of this return, Chris? You get Hayden Wesnesey. He's 27 years old. Had some hype a few years back. He struggled in 2023. Did take a step forward to season, a 386 ERA, a 114 whip. Mostly as a reliever. He's got this awesome sweeper, but don't really know if he has anything outside of that.

and then Cam Smith, the 13th overall pick out of Florida State. He's turning 21 in February. He played 32 games in the minors. He hit 313. Seven home runs, five doubles, four triples, two steals. In OPS, just over 1,000, he got up to five games at AA. I've listened to some first-year player draft, you know, prospect podcast. People seem to be really, really excited about Cam Smith.

So talk to me about, you know, Wesniew, can he maybe start with the Astros? and what you might see coming here for Cam Smith? Yeah, I think on the whole, the Astros certainly have a better reputation for pitcher development than the Cubs, and I think that's probably earned. So you would have to imagine the Astros see something in Hayden West Nesky that they can maximize.

He's got decent velocity, but gets very few swings and misses with his four seamer. His sinker actually gets hit pretty hard as well, So like you said, there's a sweeper there and it's really good. 43% whiff rate, lots of soft contact. I don't know. Maybe they can get the cutter to be a better pitch for him to bridge the gap or maybe he throws a change up more that can develop. I don't know.

The cutter performed really well this year. But if you're just cutter sweeper, I'm not sure that that arsenal works out. You probably need a change up or at least a serviceable fastball. Yeah, and so I would, like, he might get an opportunity in the rotation. I think it's pretty unlikely. Hayden Winsnacky matters much for fantasy, but, you know, is he going to be a spark? That would make sense. He mostly pitched up the bullpen.

Yeah, he made 21 appearances as a reliever. So, yeah, he'll have spark eligibility. So if he's a starter, though, I don't know that that's guaranteed. Yeah, if he breaks camp with the, in the rotation, you know, throw him in that, like, oh, like Jeff Hoffman, Clay Holmes, like they're having that discussion where if you're in a head to head points league and that stuff matters,

let's see what the first start looks like. And there's a decent chance you drop him after the first start, but if he's in the rotation, we can maybe draft him in a head to head points league. All right. Anything on Cam Smith? Seems to have been one of the fastest risers

among prospects over the past calendar year or so because he was, frankly, pretty underwhelming in his first. Taste of Action at Florida State as a 20-year-old in 20203, had an 843 OPS for college. It's pretty bad. Goes to the Cape Cod Summer League, I think, in 2023, puts himself on the map with a really strong performance there, showed power with the woodbats, and then has a breakout season in 2024, hit 387, 1142.

And then, you know, at the end of the longest season he's ever played, goes 32 games, gets all the way to double A. destroys low and high A to the tune of a 900 plus OPS. At both there is supposed to be pretty good power here. He had seven home runs in 32 games. Enough athleticism that he should be able to stick at a corner, hopefully not first base in the long run, but there are some questions about whether he'll be able to play third in the long term.

I do think it's kind of interesting that like, I think he went one pick after Hayden. Montgomery is that? Braden Montgomery. The guy that the White Sox got. And it seems like there's so much more excitement about Cam Smith after his pro debut. Montgomery didn't play.

He was recovering from an injury. So he didn't have the chance to generate excitement. But it feels like a somewhat similar profile, at least from a fantasy perspective, not a lot of speed. It's going to come down to the bat. They're corner only players. Cam Smith does seem to have much better plate discipline and contact skills. So if the power is real, he could be a pretty fast resume.

He got to AA. We always say once you're at AA, you could be a good couple of months away from the majors. All right. Let's take a quick break. When we return, we still have some more fallout here. Matt Shaw on the Cubside of things. Maybe some Shay Wickham or Zach DeZenzo with the Houston Astros. We'll talk about that right after this.

Welcome back in Blockbuster trades here on a Friday. Kyle Tucker shipped over. to the Cubs for Esauk Paredes, Hayden Wesneski, and prospect Cam Smith. And some more of the fallout here on the Cubs side of things, this opens up a spot for Matt Shaw, who is one of their top prospects. He could play third base. We talked about him on our infield prospect pod earlier in the week. 23 years old, first round pick in 2023. And the guy looks absolutely ready, Chris. He can hit for batting average, there's power, their speed. He got up to 35 games at AAA. The early ADP is 487 for Matt Shaw. I think he climbs up inside of the top 300.

You can use one of your last round picks on him, something like that. What are your thoughts here on Matt Shaw? Yeah, I mean, I think this is one that's going to come down to spring training because like he's gotten to AAA. He's played 35 games there. If they feel like that's enough, that could absolutely happen. But, you know, it's also the kind of thing where after 35 games of AAA, some organizations won't necessarily call a guy up. We'll see what the Cubs decide to do there. But he should have a chance at spring training. That's the way I would put it right now.

And at that point, it's in his hands. If he performs well, he could absolutely. I mean, the runway is clear because I don't know who the alternative would be here. And here's the other thing to keep in mind is we're not 100% sure that Nico Horner's going to be ready for opening day after having elbow surgery. So there could be potentially two spots in this infield. And I suppose it's possible that we're just kind of assuming that Cody Ballinger's gone after this. But if they can't find a trade for him, it's possible he plays first base.

Maybe they try Michael Bush at third to open the season. I'd be surprised if they actually did that. But it's a possibility at least. And so it's not 100% guaranteed that Matt Shaw. will be on the opening day roster, but it does feel like a situation where his future's in his own hands with how he handles spring. Chris,

would you rather take a shot on Matt Shaw or Connor Norby? Probably Connor Norby at this point, but, you know, it kind of also, you know, you're asking me on December 13th, and it depends what type of league we're drafting. You know,

if it's one of these leagues where these NFC gladiator leagues where you have no bench, Connor Norby's going to be on the opening day roster. He's going to be up every all season as long as he plays hits well. Yeah. You know, Shaw, there are still enough moving parts that I think Norby's a better bet, just not necessarily a guarantee himself. What about Matt Shaw versus Noel V. Marte with the Cincinnati Reds? You know, I'm going through the rankings now,

and that's the spot that I dropped Shaw in. I had Marte. It's like 260-ish overall, but I've soured on him a lot in the last year. It feels like the Reds have soured on him a lot, given both the suspension and then how he played coming back from it, but even how he was playing before. Remember, he had an awful spring training.

It was just a deeply miserable year for Noel Vu Marte on basically every level possible. So I, I, I think I'm okay putting Shaw ahead of Marte right now. Yeah, and I think that's a fair spot, because if you look at early ADP, just a third base, Connor Norby is going at pick 278,

Nelvi Marte at 287. So, you know, that 275 to 300 range, if you're in an early NFBC draft, maybe that's where you look to kind of pull the trigger and draft a Matt Shaw. On the Astro side of things, no doubt. I mean, the Astros get worse in the interim.

You know, we talked about how, Issoc Paredes is a nice little player to get back in return. You're losing Kyle Tucker, who again is one of the five best position players in all of baseball. And it's just so interesting to me that this is how the Astros operate. Chris, when they've been good for so long. And obviously they've won World Series and they've made money. There's no doubt about that.

But it seems obvious that this is the way that they operate. They build up these star players, but then they let them go. Like Correa Springer, they've let these guys go in the past. The one thing is with both Springer and Correa, they let them get to free agency. This is the first one that they've moved before his contract was up. And I think that just represents where they're at in their organizational timeline. When it was Corre and Springer, you couldn't justify trading that guys because this was a World Series contender. Now you look at the Astros and it's like, yeah, even with Tucker this year, I don't know.

Look, they could absolutely. They were a playoff team. they can absolutely make the World Series. It's not what I'm saying, but you don't look at this team and see a playoff or a World Series favorite like you did when Correa and Springer were out there for agency limits. So, you know, you start to look at this lineup and it gets pretty gross pretty quickly.

Like the top, Jose Altovae, Issaqueredis, Yon Alvarez, Yiner Diaz, oh boy, John Singleton is currently listed as First baseman and number five hitter on roster resource. That's just one man's opinion. But Chas McCormick, Taylor Trammell, Jake Myers, like there are some mildly interesting guys on the bench or in the high minors. You know, Shea Whitcomb, I think there's some optimism about, but yeah, it's pretty bad.

And so I understand the decision to move Kyle Tucker. I do wonder if it seems like it was like a Kyle Tucker or Alex Breggman kind of thing. So I would expect them to push a little harder to bring Breggman back. I don't know. Maybe that's just my thought. But it seemed like from some of the reporting that's been out there, it was like they wanted to move Tucker to free up money for Breggman. I don't think that makes a lot of sense. But that's been out there.

So certainly I think. Paredes can play a very good third base. He's also logged lots of time at first base. A Bregman Paredes combo on the corners makes a lot more sense than a Paredes John Singleton combo. So we'll see what the Astros do, but I think it's clear that they're not done yet. I don't know what exactly that means because there's also talk about Framber Valdez being traded and maybe this takes that off the table, but maybe they move him and get

first baseman back. You know, I think there's a lot of ways the asteros can still go. I agree with that. I would be not shocked. I would be surprised if they brought Alex Breggman back. Just based on the whispers, free agency, things that we've heard,

I guess there's not, it's not really a huge market for him right now, but I just, I don't, the way that the Astros have operated and it kind of looks like the direction that they're going, I don't think that Bregman will be back. But maybe I'm wrong about that. I agree with you.

I think Shea Whitcomb is a name to pay attention to. He can play in the infield. He can play in the outfield. He's got a little power and speed. Maybe some questions about the batting average there. If they don't bring in a first baseman or third baseman, Zach DeZenzo is another name to pay attention to who has big raw power and could have an opportunity here to play.

But again, still kind of up in the air based on the way the rest of the offseason goes here for the Houston action. Let's talk about the other trade, Chris, and Devin Williams traded over to my new York Yankees in exchange for nasty Nestor Cortez and prospect Caleb Durbin, who we've heard a lot about this offseason. It seems like maybe that was by design. They were trying to build up his value in order to trade him, and that's exactly what they did here. Should have mentioned this earlier. Kyle Tucker last year of his contract, maybe we did mention it. But Devin Williams is also in the same place.

You know, only one year left on his deal. So is Nestor. Yep. I believe. So that's an interesting wrinkle to this trade. Yeah. So it's pretty clear that, you know, the Astros were not going to resign Kyle Tucker. The Brewers were not going to sign Devin Williams to a long-term deal.

And this is what they do. They traded away Josh Hader. Now they trade away Devin Williams, who, when he's healthy, I mean, he is one of the best closers in all of baseball. I mean, you can make a case for him. Like if you told me he was going to stay healthy the whole season, I think he's the best closer in fantasy now. Like, this is a guy with a, what, a 190 ERA over the past three seasons, unlike Emmanuel Class A, he gets a ton of strikeouts.

Yeah, like the one thing Emmanuel Class A doesn't do is get 100 strikeouts per year. Devin Williams can do that. He hasn't done it quite. I think his career has like 95. or 93, but close enough with elite ratios on a good team that, yeah, I absolutely think Devin Williams has a case to be the number one reliever in fantasy. Is that how you would draft him, Chris? Because right now it feels like there's a pretty clear top tier of four that includes

Class A, Devin Williams, Josh Hader, and Edwin Diaz. I have Class A a little bit ahead of that group, but it's. It's only like five picks in overall rankings. And then I have it Diaz Williams-Hater with Mason Miller, actually. I have him in that group as well. So for me, it's a clear top five. And Class A is just a little bit ahead because we know how the Guardians operate. We know, I mean, he's led the American League and saves three times in a row, I believe.

So, yeah, I'm, I will give Class A little bit of an edge there. but Williams is absolutely in that discussion. Would you move Devin Williams ahead of Edmund Diaz? Haven't done it yet, but, you know, Diaz was mildly shaky, I guess. Is that being fair? I think he was more than mildly shaky. He lost his closer job and he was on the IL at some point. Yeah. Still the elite strike rate, 8040.

strikeouts in 53 and two-thirds innings. 352 ERA wasn't as bad as I thought. He's got that alternate season thing. It's not quite even year, odd year, because he didn't play in 2023. But like you look at the ERA per year, 327, 196, 559, 175, 345, 135, 131, 352. So his ERA is going to start with a one this year. Obviously, Edwin Diaz. That's how it's been every alternate year.

I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now. I would like to take this time to apologize to the early drafters who selected Luke Weaver because not that it's a lost pick, but yeah, obviously loses a bunch of fantasy value now with Devin Williams coming over. Luke Weaver, to his credit, reinvented himself this season. He was amazing down the stretch. He was lights out in the postseason. A 289 ERA, a 0.93 whip, 11K per number. but now he moves to a setup role.

If you play in saves plus hold leagues, I think he's still an elite performer in that format, but any just standard league, Chris, with saves or even in a points league, I'm not sure that Luke Weaver will have that much fantasy value. I think he'll still have value in like, really any categories league, but especially like a 15-teamer

where you actually do occasionally have to use a non-closing reliever. But that's probably it. We do have a new version of the song. I'm trying to make sure I have the syllables in the right place for it. But I think

it's Luke Weaver, I believe you won't get to pitch the night. That is amazing. Yes. We're going to have to put that one out on social media. That was great.

What about the Brewer's side of things. We'll talk about the return in a second. I want to talk about who will close for them. It's likely Trevor McGill. I think that makes a ton of sense. He obviously filled in for Devin Williams in the first half of the season and he was great in the role. Overall this season, 272 ERA, a 101 whip. 9.7K per 9. He had 21 saves. Nearly a 14% swinging strike rate. 140 stuff plus. I guess there's a chance the Brewers bring in somebody else to compete for saves, but I feel pretty confident in Trevor McGill. Yeah.

No, I think probably top, definitely top 20 closer, maybe top 15. He was really good in that role this season. Remember, there was a lot of uncertainty about who the closer would be before last season when Devin Williams was recovering from that back injury. And it was Abner Uribe who opened the season. then look, maybe we'll see him again at some point. But, you know, he fell apart and had to be sent back to the miners. Yoel Pymps was really good, but not as good as McGill, certainly,

and just didn't get the save opportunities. Miguel saved 21 games last year. He was awesome. So I do think he's got to be the first choice there. And I don't have, oh, wait, let me see. I might be able to sort by RPS. I've got, I've got, I'm still doing everything in a spreadsheet. And so like, I'm, it's, it's making it very difficult to, to actually do RP rankings.

But let's see where I can slot him in. Looks like it's 15 exactly. Um, but that's with assuming Kirby 8 signs as a closer. I still have him ahead. Um, I, I have Pete Fairbanks ahead as well. I don't really know how to feel about that one. That was the one. I was looking at Fairbanks in the ADP.

He's at 157. I know Scott has Ryan Walker ahead. I do not, but I understand. I think I would take, right now, I would take Trevor McGill ahead of P. Fairbanks. I think that's fair. I think P. Fairbanks is certainly better when he's healthy, but there's been enough scares there.

And we just don't know where he's going to pitch. He could get traded too, yeah. Yeah, he was absolutely on the trade block at the deadline and was someone that the actual, the Yankees were reportedly interested in. So, yeah, that's another one that will, you know, we'll see. So I guess, like, I'm not publishing these rankings until mid-January. We got about a month. I'll put McGill ahead of Fairbanks.

Sure, that's fine. What about Miguel versus Alexis Diaz? I have him ahead of Alexis Diaz, who is kind of like the end of the, or the start of a like, yeah, I'm sure he's a closer, but tier, you know? I don't think he's that good. Yes. I would agree with you completely on that. Kirby Yates, we talked about he's going to pick 124 in early ADP. He's ahead.

Yeah. You assume that he's going to sign somewhere. as a closer and obviously he was lights out this past season. What about Lucas Erseg? He's at 117.5 as the ADP. He's one spot ahead. I feel like this is the range. Like this is where you kind of drop Trevor McGill for now

around 125 in the ADP. He's, I would put him just behind Ryan Walker, Lucas Erseg, Kirby 8th. I think that makes sense. I think that's reasonable, yeah. Let's talk about the rest of the return for the Milwaukee Brewers. They get Nestor Cortez and Caleb Durbin back from the Yankees. and Nesta Cortez, I think we'll get a chance to start.

As of now, the Brewers have Freddie Peralta, Aaron Savali, and Tobias Myers in their rotation. After that, a bunch of questions. Brandon Woodruff is coming back from shoulder surgery. They have D.L. Hall. They have Aaron Ashby. Those guys haven't really worked out as starting pitchers. Absolutely goes ahead of those guys, I think, in the hierarchy.

If Woodruff is healthy and pitches like himself, that's your ace, right? I think it's unlikely that he does. but if he does. So he'll be in the rotation as long as he's healthy no matter what. And I think Cortez is the four or five. And like he's kind of exactly what the brewers typically put in their rotation when they don't have that

homegrown ace like Corbyn Burns or Brandon Woodruff, like just a bunch of number fours. And I think that's what Nestor Cortez is. There are, there have been some pretty alarming injuries in recent years, including, I believe, a flexor strain towards his elbow at the end of last season, missed a bunch of time in 2023,

I think with a rotator cuff strain. So those are two pretty concerning injuries to have in your recent track record. But when he's on the mound, he's usually pretty good. You know, 377 ERA last year. I think the early success in 2021 and 2022 when he got to the Yankees might have been, you know, he's a pretty unique pitcher,

gets by really relying on, soft contact. I think maybe the league's caught up to him to the point where now he's more of a pretty good pitcher, but certainly not an ace. Like he looked a little bit at the start of his Yankees tenure. But all in all, yeah, I think he's a viable pitcher for the Brewers. And you know, we've talked a lot about the, you know, a lot of the guys who have signed, Luis Severino and guys like that where maybe Nestor's a little ahead of the. those guys. You know, he's shown a little more upside, but how I view him in drafts might ultimately come down to, like, or how likely I am to draft him, I guess, might just come down to like,

we get to March, the rotation starts to come together and he's got some good matchups early on, more likely to draft him. Otherwise, I think he's a matchup dependent pitcher. I think he might be a little bit better than matchup dependent. You know, the three, like high three ZRA. I think he'll provide a good whip. He doesn't really walk many batters. you know, between 8 and 9K per 9. Yeah. He's a strikeouts, yeah. Yeah, like I think he's... He's pretty good at everything.

He's someone you might just want to roster on your bench. And yeah, like you said, yeah, he probably just gets based, gets in based on matches. But I think he's worth drafting. You know, I think he's worthy of a late round pick. The early ADP for Nester Cortez is 392. Would you rather have him or DJ Hurst, someone I know you also like? I think I'd go... Hmm.

I think I'd go hers. Yeah. What about Nestor versus Nick Martinez? He's at 3.95. I have Nestor a little bit ahead of Nick Martinez. What about Nestor versus Clay Holmes, his former teammate, likely to start for the New York Mets? I'm pretty skeptical that the Clay Holmes experiment's going to work as a starter, so I'll take Nestor Cortez. Do you think Nestor Cortez will move up in ADP?

I mean, when we see transactions that usually happens, but is it deserved? Like, should he move up? I think his chances of being in the rotation are better now that he's with the Brewers, than he was done with the Yankees. It kind of always felt like he was going to be traded. So I guess, you know, it was just uncertainty about what his role and where he was going to be pitching. Now, I think we have some certainty.

He probably moves up. I don't think he should be much higher than like 300, but he should be in that range. So probably a bench piece in a Roto League. All right. What about the other return piece for the Brewers? They get Caleb Durbin, 24-year-old prospect. The dude is a spark plug. This season in the minors, 275 batting.

average, 388 on base, 10 homers, 25 doubles, 31 steals, 839 OPS. He did all of that in 90 games. And then he went out in the Arizona Fall League. He broke the stolen base record. He had 29 steals in 24 games. And like Nestor Cortez, Chris, I just think he's much more likely to get an opportunity to play every day for a team like the Milwaukee Brewers versus a team like the New York Yankees.

I don't know. because the brewers specialize in Caleb Durbin's. Like they kind of have a whole roster of Caleb's Durbin, right? Like Sal Sal Freelich is kind of a Caleb Durbin. And Garrett Mitchell's kind of a Caleb Durbin. And Bryce Terang is definitely a Caleb Durbin. And Tyler Black, who may not even be on the roster, is a Caleb Durbin. And Joey Ortiz has some Caleb Durbin.

So, like, they're all different, but they're all like, it's like, can we build an entire roster out of like middle infielders who aren't quite shortstops is kind of the brewer's path right now. And I don't know, like he might play every day. I could certainly see that. But it's a guy that scouts are not nearly as excited about as Yankees fans over the past couple of months. or the fantasy community. I think it's fair to say. He's gotten a lot more talked about in those circles. It's an older prospect, very, very good plate discipline, but it's a type of prospect for whom the good plate discipline often disappears

when you get to the majors because he's just not really a threat to damage the ball. Hit 10 home runs in 90 games last year. That's not nothing, but the eggs of velocity readings, from what I understand are pretty mediocre for Caleb Durbin. He does a lot of the pull the ball in the air and get the most out of it that way. So I'm putting him in the late round sleeper discussion. It's a pretty good team fit in terms of philosophy. Like I would guess they're going to let him run a decent amount if he does play

and could hit near the top of the lineup if he hits. So I can see the upside. It just the floor is he starts the season in AAA. Yeah. All completely fair points. I guess my take on it is that, you know, the Yankees World Series contender, were they, A, really going to give Caleb Durbin a real shot to be

their starting second basement and just leave him there all year? Maybe, but I lean more towards, no, I don't actually think that would have happened, versus going over to a team like the Brewers where at least he has that chance. He has that if he can hit the ground running in spring training and he gets an opportunity to play on opening day and he has a good first couple of weeks.

Maybe that just turns in to he has a job for the entire season and he can pop 8 to 10 homers with 25 steals, something like that with like a good on-base percentage. Right now the early NFBC draft champions ADP, which again, that's a 15-team Roto 50 round draft and hold format 551.8. We have to assume Caleb Durbin is going to climb up quite a bit. The range that I kind of felt like around 400, Nolan Gorman, Ronnie Maricio types, what do you think about that as like a just kind of drop in Caleb Durbin there and in the

rankings are ADP? I think that's reasonable. Yeah. You know, you look at like, Jeff McNeil did some interesting things over the summer that make me think maybe he's not completely finished. So, you know, do you, do you, do. you put Caleb Durbin ahead of him, maybe Nick Gonzalez, or yeah, Nick Gonzalez, Nolan Gorman, Gavin Lux, Brandon Rogers, David Hamilton might just be another Caleb Durbin type. So I think he's in a muddy, wouldn't say middle class at second base even, but it's a very late round pick. Yeah, even in a 15 team league, you should not be drafting Caleb Durbin at this point as a start. it's a bench play and see what happens in spring training.

Yeah. Just continuing to look through some ADP here, some other names. Let's see, around that 400 range. Yeah, you talked about some of these guys, Brennan Rogers, like Isaiah kind of fluff. Gavin Lux is at 386. I'd almost rather take a shot on Caleb Durbin to see what happens there. Mostly because Gavin Lux just doesn't have any speed really to talk about.

So I think that's fine. But like, once we get up to Christian Campbell at 333, Otto Lopez at 333. Yeah, Otto Lopez is one I was going to talk about where it's like, I don't know who I'd rather have between Otto Lopez and Caleb Durbin. They seem pretty similar. They might be the same guy, but I feel safer about Otto Lopez's chances of playing for a bad, a bad Marlins team. So I think that is fair. All right, Chris. But I think Caleb Durbin, like, it could change a lot between now and the spring, right?

because we could get to the end of spring training and he gets completely lost in the shuffle to the point where it's pretty clear he's going back to AAA, in which case, don't draft him at all. Not enough upside to be stashing a Caleb Durbin. Or we could be two weeks into spring training. He's played every single day with the starters,

and there's no question that he's going to be starting, especially if he has a good spring. In which case, yeah, I think then you start to push up towards like the 350 range where, you know, there's no reason not to take that chance because he could be what Luis Renhifa was last year, which was a really good fantasy option when he was healthy. Yeah.

All right, Chris, that was a lot. Is there any other aspects of either of these trades? Kyle Tucker to the Cubs and Devin Williams to the Yankees that you'd like to hit on before we wrap up. I think that's it. I think we're good. The Yankees still aren't done. They have a lot of holes on there.

Like that is a good point to bring up. Caleb Durbin, they were talking about maybe playing second base. They still have a lot of holes. Like, I don't, with Max Fried on your roster, I don't think you want Jazz Chisholm fielding ground balls at third base. Yeah. You know, so like Alex. Breggman would still be a good.

Yeah, Breggman makes a ton of sense. I mean, honestly, if you could get Alec Bowman for cheap, I wouldn't hate that. I know they've really wanted a lot of contact hitters on that roster. so I could see Alec Boehm making some sense for them. I might be more as a first baseman. They still need a first baseman. He still needed out.

Alec Boem rated out really well defensively last year, weirdly. If I'm remembering correctly, yeah. He rated out really well, which was surprising. So that's one to consider that I could see a fit there. All right. Again, Kyle Tucker traded over to the Cubs for ESOC Pirae's Hayden Wazneski and Cam Smith and Devin Williams to the Yankees for Nestor Cortez and Caleb Durbin. I do just want to say I'm happy that Nestor Cortez gets to go to a place where he can pitch.

I'm going to miss him, genuinely. Some people seem to not enjoy his antics on the mound. I think it's hilarious. I like watching him. He's a fun player. Seems like a good dude. So I'm sad to see him go, but obviously it's to get Devin Williams. I'll be honest.

It'll be more fun to watch his antics. now that he's not on the Yankees. Oh, what? What a hater? What a haters? No, no, no. It's like you're not allowed to grow a mustache, but you can do like a little hesitation when you're pitching. No, no. You can have a mustache. Oh, you can't have a beard. Yeah, Devin Williams has to shave his beard now. That he's going to look weird with a beard. I, there's a reason we grow beards, you know? And I guess you and I are, are the ones to talk on that aspect. Good thing Scott White isn't here else he would, you know, be left out of the beard conversation.

Go enjoy your Friday night, Chris. Let's get out of here. We're going to wrap there for Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again next week. Bye-bye.

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