Fantasy Baseball Today - Lance Lynn Bounce Back, Jazz Replacements & Liberatore Promotion (5/17 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: May 17, 2023

Luis Robert is having a monster May (1:10)! ... Lance Lynn bounced back in a big way (4:05). ... Add Bailey Ober in shallower leagues (9:34). ... Shane Bieber had his worst start of the season (12:40).... ... Ronald Acuña is the best player in Fantasy Baseball (18:20). ... Jazz Chisholm is out 4-6 weeks (21:12). How do we replace him? ... Cardinals prospect Matthew Liberatore will make his season debut Wednesday (26:00). ... Add Dane Dunning (29:55)? ... Let's rank waiver wire hitters (36:15). ... News (45:42): Taj Bradley could return to the Rays Wednesday. ... We wrap up with leftovers, bullpen updates and streamers (51:55). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:03 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Hello, and welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Wednesday, May 17th. I am Frank Sample, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers.
Starting point is 00:00:36 Today on the show, Lancelan bounced back. Shane Bieber did the opposite. Jazz Chisholm is out four to six weeks, and Matthew Liberator, a pitching prospect with the Cardinals, is getting the call and will make his season debut on Wednesday. Before we get into it, please like this video and subscribe on YouTube if you haven't already. And if you're listening on the audio side, download, follow, and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify.
Starting point is 00:01:01 Let's jump right in. Oh, my goodness gracious. Chris, we're going to start with you, bud. Oh, okay. Interesting. Yeah, we'll go with Luis Robert, who homered for the seventh time in the month of May, his, I believe, American League leading 12th home run of the season, which matches his total from 2022. And now, look, this is sort of a dog bites man story. You know, we, we all had Luis Robert ranked fairly high. I don't think the three of us necessarily had too many concerns about him. But it is nice to see. that one, Luis Robert is one home runaway from matching his career high. He's never played more than 98 games in a season. But there were, I think, some concerns that, you know, last year's power output might have been a red flag for him moving forward.
Starting point is 00:01:57 And I think it's safe to say that that has not been the case. So far, he's got a 15% barrel rate, strikeout rate back up a little bit. second highest of his career, but with the quality of contact, we're getting from him, you don't concern yourself too much for that. So, yeah, just wanted to give a little shout-out to Luis Robert,
Starting point is 00:02:20 who seems to be becoming the hitter. We hoped he could be. If you look at just the month of May, and this excludes what he did on Tuesday, his average exit velocity for the month is 91.2 miles per hour, and his barrel rate was 23.5%. So, you know, it's pretty good. Kind of finally tapping into that power, lifting the ball,
Starting point is 00:02:42 and obviously barreling it up. Luis Robert. I'm not going to lie. I had some concerns coming in this season. Just can he stay on the field long enough? But so far, he's done a great job of that. He's hitting for a lot of power. We'd like to see some speed.
Starting point is 00:02:56 But look. Yeah, that's what I was going to say. I hope he starts running more because that was part of the bargain. It was supposed to be. One stolen base so far. I mean, it's not like he's slowed down. He has 83rd percentile sprint speed. And as a guy who doesn't walk much and is hitting a lot of home runs,
Starting point is 00:03:15 he's not spending as much time at first base. But he's spending enough that he should have more than one stolen base if that's something he's motivated to do. So hopefully that changes. Looks like he's got between singles, walks, and hit by pitches, he's got 34 of those three things. So yeah, you would expect more than one stolen base in that many. opportunities. I would imagine that's coming at some point, but you know, it's hard to complain
Starting point is 00:03:43 too much here. Chris, did you read off all the main numbers for Luis Robert? I did not, just the homers. Okay, so he's batting 408 with seven home runs and a 1430 Ops. So far this month, that is Luis Robert. And 1442 after tonight. Oh, look at that. There you go. Good catch. Scott, let's stick in Chicago. Who you got? All right. Going with Oliver. garden bread stick today, old Lance Lynn. Oh, Lance Lynn. Boy, revenge week continues here.
Starting point is 00:04:14 First with Chris Sale and now with Lance Lynn. Had a great start. Had a great start against the Guardians. One earned run and seven innings, struck out seven. He did allow two unurned runs, so three runs total, but only one earned.
Starting point is 00:04:31 And, you know, lowered his lowered his ERA to a cool 666 after entering he entered the day with the worst ERA among qualifiers so that was much needed and is much appreciated because
Starting point is 00:04:51 you know I've been among those saying to keep the faith in Lance Lynn that a lot of the underlying numbers don't look all that different it certainly doesn't look like a case of old guy being old his let's see
Starting point is 00:05:07 he entered the day with the second best swinging strike rate of his career and the third best strikeout rate
Starting point is 00:05:12 of his career and usually usually those are two of the numbers that crater if old guy is old you know
Starting point is 00:05:22 that's where it shows up most and it hadn't shown up with Lance Lynn there had been concerns raised ones that I
Starting point is 00:05:30 can't dismiss but I'm not ready to substantiate either that Lance Lynn being a bigger guy and this has been brought up with Alec Manoa too being a bigger guy is the pitch clock affecting him more than most pitchers and uh if you look at his his tempo stats on statcast this is apparently something else stat cast keeps track of Lance Lynn was having there was about five fewer seconds
Starting point is 00:06:05 in between Lance Lynn's pitches this year versus last year, which is a lot faster. So he's having to work a lot faster than he's accustomed to working and was that having an effect. Again, I can't dismiss it. I'm not ready to substantiate it either. It's only a theory.
Starting point is 00:06:22 My hope is, and there's good reason to believe, given the underlying numbers, that this is the start of a turnaround round for Lance Len. And look, we brought it up before with him. Last year, it took him nine starts. After nine starts, his season turned on a dime.
Starting point is 00:06:41 He went from having like a 650 ERA in his first nine starts to a 250 ERA in his final 12. Well, this was his ninth start of the season. Doesn't mean it's going to play out exactly the same as last year. But we've seen his season turn on a dime before just last year. And I still think there's a lot of reason to have faith. in Lance Lent. And the biggest thing he'd struggled with in the first month and a half of the season was just giving up really bad quality of contact.
Starting point is 00:07:08 460 expected Wobon contact coming into tonight's start. Average exit velocity, hard hit rate weren't that far off from last year, but continuing to trend in the wrong direction. But just when he got hit hard, he got hit really hard. So it's one of those situations where it wasn't just bad luck, right? the first six weeks of the season or so when Lanselin was struggling.
Starting point is 00:07:31 He earned that, right? 546 expected ERA, you know, the underlying numbers. Strick rate was better, you know, walk rate, still okay. But it's rarely, it's rarely just bad luck. He did have a 386 ex-fib. But that's what I'm saying is that it was, it wasn't just bad luck. But if there's one thing Lanselin has consistently been very good at over the course of his pretty long career, it's been suppressing hard contact and limiting damage when the ball is put in place.
Starting point is 00:08:04 So that's one where you would expect, given how long it takes for that to stabilize, you would expect him to regress to his mean pretty substantially. And I think that's a reason to be optimistic, even though his struggles so far weren't just bad luck. And we said something similar about Chris Sale earlier in the season two, Chris, where he was getting bad results, but for the most part, he deserved those. because he was allowing a lot of hard contact. So that's mostly been the case so far this season for Lance Lain. He did allow nine more hard hits in this game.
Starting point is 00:08:36 The average exit velocity was 87.6. So it seems like kind of a mixed bag. Like he got a lot of soft contact, but maybe he gave up some hard contact in this one. What I like to see was the fastball velocity was up a little bit. He averaged 92.9 in this one. That's exactly what he averaged last year. It was down a little bit coming into the start.
Starting point is 00:08:53 Zero walks, zero homers. Those are two things that have kind of plagued Lanslin all season. as well. Just put a ball on this conversation. Let's say you guys could still buy because the overall numbers still don't look good. Would you guys be looking to do that on Lancel? It's a lot harder to buy today probably because people have short memories with pitchers in particular. But yeah, I mean, if I can buy him, if I can exchange like a Drew Smiley. I mean, Drew Smiley has great numbers so far. If I can flip him for Lance Lynn, I'm doing that. I mean, just check out my starting pitcher rankings.
Starting point is 00:09:29 That's an easy call, yeah. Yep. All right. Oh, my goodness gracious, for me, I am going to go with Bailey Ober, who turned in a quality start at the Dodgers here on Tuesday night. Six innings, six hits, one run, one walk, six strikeouts with 14 swinging strikes on 102 pitches. Did allow some hard contact. And this one, I was watching the start and, you know, a few loud, loud ones that landed right on the warning track. So I think he kind of escaped some trouble here. But alas, the numbers overall this season have been great for Bailey Ober,
Starting point is 00:10:01 178 ERA, a 0.96 whip right around a strikeout per inning. Scott, something I know you talk about a lot with him is he throws strikes. He only had one walk in this one. He's limited walks all season. He's getting a good amount of whiff so far this year as well. Again, this is Bailey Ober. But he does allow a ton of fly balls. Has only given up two home runs and five starts.
Starting point is 00:10:22 So I think when we see bad starts, because look, there will be, be some. He's not like the best pitcher in baseball. It will be probably some of those balls going over the fence for Bailey Ober. He's up to 75% rostered, which is right around the same rate as Jack Flaherty and Michael Waka, who we spoke about yesterday. Scott, would you take over over both of those names? I would take him over both of those, even Jack Flaherty, who obviously had a dominant start last time. I have a lot of faith in Uber. Obviously, there's going to be some regression because he has a 178 ERA right now. But I do think he's going to be a whip specialist for sure with his few walks as he
Starting point is 00:11:05 allows and as many fly balls as he allows. Like he's not going to give him many walks. He's not going to give him any hits. Will he give up a higher rate of home runs than the average pitcher? Yeah, probably. So there'll be some disparity there with his ERA and whip when all said and done. But like I like that he's gone six plus innings now three starts in a row. at previous times we've seen Bailey O'Ber in the majors,
Starting point is 00:11:27 the twins hadn't let him do that. So it seems like they're taking the training wheels off here and are willing to let him roll. If you look at the expected stats for him, because there's hard contact, because there's a high flight ball rate, it's all the expected, all the ERA estimators are going to be a bit on the high side,
Starting point is 00:11:48 but he is a pitcher who throughout his time in the majors has drastically outperformed the expected stats. And I think that's just, I think that just goes along with his profile. So I have a lot of confidence in Bailey Ober. And I think he's pretty close to most roster at this point. I had him as a sleeper pitcher against the Dodgers for this week. I can't remember as long as I've been writing those sleeper pitcher
Starting point is 00:12:13 and weekly sleeper pitcher and hitter articles, a time when I had a sleeper pitcher lined up for just one start against the Dodgers. And look at it. Look at it. Baileyover came through. Yeah, paid off too. And the Dodgers, to their credit, against right-handed pitching this season second in weighted on base average. So a bit of a roll of the dice there, Scotty, but it works out well for you and whoever listened on Bailey Ober.
Starting point is 00:12:37 Just want to do a quick bonus one. Chris, I know you wanted to talk about Shane Bieber. So let's get into that. He had his worst start of the season at the White Sox, four and two-thirds, 12 hits allowed, six runs, five earned runs. Two homers allowed in this one as well. 14 hard hits. 93.8 average exit velocity. The ERA, still very good, 3.20 for Beaver,
Starting point is 00:12:59 but the whip is now up to 1.22. He's well below a strikeout per inning. And yeah, look, continues to allow a lot of hard contact with a career low 10.4% swinging strike rate. I'm not doing this for like victory laps, but just a reminder. Like what we tell everybody on this podcast is, you know, that there's a method to the madness, right?
Starting point is 00:13:21 Like we're not just telling you to sell high on Shane Bieber for the sake of it. It's when things kind of spiral, it's going to look like this because again, not getting wist and allowing a lot of hard contact. So Chris, anything else you'd like to add on Shane Bieber's worst start of the year? Yeah, it's something we've been warning about for, you know, most of the season with Shane Bieber that, you know, the underlying numbers didn't quite back up what he'd been doing. His expected ERA coming into this start, 453, nearly two runs higher than. his actual ERA. The thing about Shane Bieber has always been that he gives up a lot of hard contact. It's just that, you know, when he's going well, he strikes out a ton of hitters.
Starting point is 00:14:03 He doesn't give up any walks. And so when he does get hit, it tends to be doubles with the base is empty or solo home runs, stuff like that. And so, you know, he tends to avoid the worst outcomes. But, you know, he's made some changes to his pitch mix that I don't think are really helping him and I'm not exactly sure what's going on. His cutter today was his second most used pitch. He allowed four balls in play, 97.8 mile per hour average exit velocity, 97.5 mile per hour average eggs of velocity on his forcing fastball as well. And those have consistently been his two
Starting point is 00:14:42 pitches, his two worst pitches when it comes to results over the past couple of seasons. And like, the forcing fastball you live with, because you got to throw a fastball. You know, You know, he's gotten away. It goes down to about 30, 35% usage most of the time. But last year it was 30% slider, 18% curveball, 16% cutter. This year it's 30% slider, 25% cutter, 10% curveball. I think that's a mistake. And I don't, I can't imagine that Shane Bieber or anybody in the Cleveland
Starting point is 00:15:15 Guardians organization is listening. But let's maybe go away from that. I don't have a good explanation for why that change has been made, but you know, you have to go back really to 2020 was the only time that the Cutter's been his third most used pitch and not been a bad pitch for him. So don't really understand the change he's made, but that sort of gives me reason to be optimistic, right? Because it might be as simple as stop throwing that bad pitch as often as you all. So hopefully that's the case moving forward. I don't really have a good explanation otherwise.
Starting point is 00:15:57 But yeah, that's certainly, this is a situation where Shane Bieber definitely deserved a bad start today. Yeah. And I will say that maybe part of the reason he's changed his pitch mix is the slider and curveball just haven't been as effective this year. Sure. Not in terms of missing bats anyway. still like bad hitting statistics off of them. But more like a 30% whiff rate on both rather than a 40% width rate. And a 40% whiff rate is tremendous.
Starting point is 00:16:30 And that's how he was able to get away with the big drop of velocity last year. He had two breaking balls that he was just able to live and die by. But that was a, it's looking like that is a tight rope walk that maybe he's not going to be able to sustain now. here in year two of the big velocity drop for Shane Bieber. And of course, it's not, that's not a final verdict. I mean, he was coming off his best start of the season with nine strikeouts. And, you know, actually prior to that start,
Starting point is 00:17:04 I came out with that article seven sell high pitchers, and Shane Bieber was the highest profile of them. And then he goes and has his best start of the season. That might have caused me to clam up and not look to sell high on him either. So I get it if you didn't. But, you know, now he has this start, clearly his worst of the season. And by the way, two other pitchers of those seven weren't so great to date either. Alex Cobb and Justin Steele.
Starting point is 00:17:31 I'm just saying, just saying, hopefully, hopefully you at least put their names out there and shopped around a little bit, even if you didn't get an offer to your liking. Yeah, like two minutes ago, Frank was like, it's not, I'm not doing a victory lap. And Scott, screw that. Yeah, man. Riff up your engines. Scott's running around his house, taking laps. You got to, you know, you got to put your money where your mouth is or whatever.
Starting point is 00:17:58 Got to show the people you mean business. Look, again, just a method to the madness. Don't go out. If you have Shane Bieber on your team, do not panic sell him. But if someone's willing to pay top 15, top 20 starting pitcher value for him, then yeah, it's still something that I would look to be doing right now. Again, trade Shane Bieber for what he's actually worth. A quick shout out to Ronald de Cunia, who is just insane right now.
Starting point is 00:18:23 He's homered in three straight. It's like every day he's hitting a home run 450 plus feet. He went two for four hit his 10th home run. He had four hard hit balls. This home run was 11.8 exit velocity, 455 feet. He has the best plate discipline of his career, 25 walks to 27 strikeouts. He is 100th percentile. Ronald de Cunia in ex-Woba, XBA, XBA, X-Lull.
Starting point is 00:18:48 and he's 87th percentile in sprint speed. His current full season pace, 38 homers, 146 runs, 100 RBI, 65 steals. He's ridiculous. It feels like 2018 Mookiee bets, you know, one of those years. Like, I keep expecting like, oh, he's going to slow down. And look, we're 42 games into the season, whatever it is. 42, yeah, he's played 42 games.
Starting point is 00:19:14 He's played every game for the Braves. And I keep expecting like, man, he's going to slow down at some point. It just has not happened. And it's one of those things that it might just be one of those years, right? Like Aaron Judge last season or Paul Goldschmidt last season, Mickey Betts in 2018, like these types of players. And we're talking about, you know, Ronald Cunia is on a path to be, you know, a very, very, very good player.
Starting point is 00:19:42 I feel like I say the on a Hall of Fame. track thing too often. So I won't say it here, but he's on a Hall of fame track. And those types of guys like, you look throughout history and there's like, you know, Joe Morgan has this big 11 war season and Mike Schmidt. And like those guys tend to have the one year where everything goes right. And it could just be one of those years for Ronald. He's a, he's a special, special player.
Starting point is 00:20:09 Yep. He's been amazing. He's the number one player in Roto so far. I didn't look it up, but I would venture to. to say he's probably the number one player in points leagues as well. But again, that is Ronald Acuna. Let's take our first break when we return. We'll get into the Jazz Chisholm injury.
Starting point is 00:20:26 Another prospect promotion. We'll do that right after this. It's major time on the golf calendar and the first cut podcast has you covered with comprehensive coverage of the PGA championship from the Oak Hill Country Club in New York. Join Kyle Porter, Rick Gaiman, and the gang for Daily Re-Camp.
Starting point is 00:20:45 from Rochester as they follow the sports's top stars on their quest for the Wanamaker trophy. Download and follow the first cut podcast wherever you find this one. If you're watching us live, we've got the QR code up there and those guys do a fantastic job. So if you're into golf and you want to get some bets out there for this upcoming tournament championship, then yes, you should go check out the first cut podcast. Let's talk about jazz chisholm, who unfortunately was placed on the I.O. with turf toe on Tuesday, retroactive to May 14th, and the belief is that he could require
Starting point is 00:21:21 four to six weeks of rest and rehab. Garrett Hampson started in center field and hit lead off on Tuesday. People will be out there looking for replacements and rightfully so. Jazz was likely drafted as a top 50 player in your league. And in shallower league, Scott, the names that stood out to me,
Starting point is 00:21:38 Christopher Morel is 73% rostered. He has second base and outfield eligibility. So regardless of where you're playing jazz, You can play Christopher Morel in either of those spots. And Esauk Paredes is someone who had a big game on Tuesday. He went two for three with a double dong, five RBI. He's betting 289 with an 860 OPS on the season. Who would you rather have, Scott, Christopher Morel or Isok Paredes?
Starting point is 00:22:02 I'd rather have Morel. I mean, if you're shooting for upside, like, and obviously you're having to replace a lot of upside here with Chisholm, I mean, if everything goes right for morale, if we get Morrell, we get Morel's best case scenario, it probably looks a lot like Jazz Chisholm, I mean, he makes very hard contact. He's fast and can steal tons of bases.
Starting point is 00:22:28 Big play discipline issues like Chishol, so he wouldn't expect much in the way of batting average. But the best case scenario for Morel is probably that good. He's not as likely as Chisham to meet that best case scenario. But you have to, when you're placing a, when you're replacing a player of that, talent, you have to take bigger chances.
Starting point is 00:22:49 Paredes, you know, he's going to provide some power. He's not going to play quite every day for the Rays because Ray's going to Ray. But he's, you know, a decent alternative, too, if you already missed out of Marell or if, I don't know. If you have to go deeper than Marell, then he's a decent alternative. If you played a really shallow league or maybe on a side other than CBS, there's a chance somebody has dropped somebody like Andres Jimenez. You know, so just like, you know, I understand we have to use roster rate to guide us because we have to draw the line somewhere.
Starting point is 00:23:22 But second base has enough redundancies that if it's a league without a middle infield spot, there's a chance somebody's dropped an even higher in second baseman than the ones we're talking about. So, of course, if that's the case, then that's where you look instead. And specifically with regards to Paredes, remember last year he had that three, Homer game in June. He hit it looks like eight home runs in the span of about 12 games.
Starting point is 00:23:51 From that point on, he had a 637 OPS. So I'm pretty skeptical that you're going to get much of anything out of Isok Paredes. I think Christopher Morale is much, much better. He's having a nice year so far, though. I mean, the true homeer game today. He was
Starting point is 00:24:06 nearly among my 10 sleeper hitters for this week. I removed him I removed I forget who I removed him for but I wish I had left him in obviously since he's starting with two home runs. Yeah, you probably took him out because he's facing someone like Justin Verlander
Starting point is 00:24:20 and no, you know, goes out and hits two home runs off of JV and that one. I was going to bring up Andres Hemenas actually as a by-low in a trade situation if you are looking to replace Jazz Chisholm in that way.
Starting point is 00:24:33 So I'm happy you brought up that name, Scott. I think if you dropped down a little bit further in maybe a 12-team Roto League or maybe even something a little bit deeper than that. Orlando Arcea is 42% rostered. He had two hits, a double in an RBI on Tuesday. His expected numbers are actually really good.
Starting point is 00:24:51 I know it's a smaller sample size because he missed some time, but cheap exposure to one of the best lineups in baseball as well with the Braves. And Nick Senzel went one for four with his fourth home run of the season. He's 40% rostered. Chris, who would you rather have Arcia or Nick Senzel in a deeper-ish league? I would rather have Arcia. You know, Senzel's doing some stuff well. You know, the expected batting average 293.
Starting point is 00:25:13 That's pretty good. Actually, worse than Orlando Arcea's. And Arcea is also hitting for power. So I think he's just a better player overall. Okay. And on the trade front, I mentioned Andres Jimenez. One name I had written down as a potential buy high, people might not have realized how well he's played since he's returned.
Starting point is 00:25:31 But Jorge Polanco, 283 with four homers and a steel since coming back. And the stack cast numbers look pretty good for him as well. And he's someone we liked before he suffered that injury in spring training and, you know, kind of had his season delayed. What do you guys think about a buy high on Jorge Polanco? Yeah, I mean, he's my number 17 second baseman while Christopher Morel is 19. Yeah, I mean, if you could do that, that's even better. All right, we've got another prospect promotion coming on Wednesday. Matthew Liberator will start for the Cardinals.
Starting point is 00:26:05 He's going up against the Brewers. This is not an injury-related call-up. but it is a chance to give the Cardinals starters an extra day of rest. So I'm not so sure that he sticks around. I do have some skepticism there. And you might remember Liberator with the Cardinals last year, he was awful. He's kind of a new pitcher this year.
Starting point is 00:26:23 The velocity is up. I feel like he's changed his pitch mix and he's getting more whiffs this year. Eight starts in the minors this season. 3.13 ERA, 1.17 whip, 56 strikeouts, over 46 innings pitched with a 14% swinging strike rate. again, that's Matthew Liberator with the Cardinals. He's 26% rostered. Scott, do you think this is a priority ad in fantasy baseball?
Starting point is 00:26:47 I wouldn't say it's a priority ad. No, I mean, even if we had assurance he was sticking around, I wouldn't say it's a priority ad. I've written about him a couple times in the Prospects report this year because of those changes he's made because he looks like a different pitcher, getting more strikeouts and everything. There's reason to believe it's going to go better
Starting point is 00:27:07 this second time around than the near. six ERA he had last year. But I never saw fit to put him in my five on the verge, meaning one of the top five prospects that needs to be stashed ahead of time, because his failure was so colossal last year. My presumption is there wouldn't be a lot of interest in him whenever he did come back. I'm a little surprised we're getting all these questions now.
Starting point is 00:27:31 I think that just speaks to everybody's desperation for pitching. Yeah. That anybody who offers some semblance of hope is going to a, I get that and like you know if you have a roster spot to play with fine but it's you know if you're debating Matthew Liberator versus Bailey Ober it's no contest you go with over yeah even like Louis Arland I'd rather have um I'm trying to think Yuri Perez for sure I'd rather have like Liberator I don't know he's had a weird career because it was a first round pick the then he had the you know pitch to like
Starting point is 00:28:08 partial seasons in the minors in 2018 and 2019 didn't pitch in 2020 obviously got promoted to AAA from high A or from Class A but his minor league numbers are pretty pedestrian I don't again because he might have a new
Starting point is 00:28:24 sweeper and you know throwing harder this year maybe there's more there but I don't really see much to be excited about here he seems like a guy who got hyped as 19 year old dominating in low A and just kind of never lost that shine as he worked his way up the ladder.
Starting point is 00:28:41 He jumped straight from low A to AAA because of the pandemic. Yeah. wiping out that minor league season. But it was, he was a guy who I felt like prior to his call up last year, his prospect stock had basically bottomed out. And now it's kind of, it's kind of rebuilt a little bit.
Starting point is 00:29:04 Yeah. But the point that we're not just ignoring him now. Even that 2019 season, And like 310 ERA is fine, but like less than a strikeout per inning, decent amount of walks. I just, I don't know. Maybe he'll prove me wrong, but I don't see much in the profile. I know, Chris, that you're a big proponent of obviously the larger sample size, but I do kind of buy into the velocity being up and him being a new pitcher this year. Whether or not that will translate in the majors, that remains to be seen.
Starting point is 00:29:30 So we'll find out with Liberator. Do you guys remember how he got to the Cardinals organization, by the way? Was that the Arroserreana trade? That's right. That's quite the trade there. It's more Tampa Bay Rays magic, I guess you could say. But great trade, great trade on their part, obviously. And we'll see if Liberator can get it going here on Wednesday.
Starting point is 00:29:53 A few other waiver wire pitchers, we already spoke about Bailey Ober. Michael Lorenzen made a three straight quality starts, up against the Pirates, six shutout innings with seven strikeouts, 13 swinging strikes on 99 pitches for him. And Dane Dunning turned in a quality start Up against the Braves, six innings, one run, four strikeouts to zero walks.
Starting point is 00:30:12 Did allow a good amount of hard contact. Obviously, a really tough lineup that he was going up against. Velocity up across the board for Dane Dunning in this outing. Jared Schuster was okay on the other side of that game. Five innings, three runs, three strikeouts, but his velocity was way up across the board. Fastball up 1.6 miles per hour, the slider up 2.3 miles per hour. And Brandon Williamson, who we mentioned yesterday, was making his debut in, Coors Field on Tuesday night.
Starting point is 00:30:40 He actually pitched really well. Five and two thirds, one run, six strikeouts, 10 swinging strikes on 72 pitches. Had a five-pitch mix. Obviously, is more of a soft tosser. Only average 91.1 miles per hour on the fastball. But Chris, we'll start with you here. Any names that stand out?
Starting point is 00:30:57 Michael Lorenzen, Dane Dunning, Jared Schuster, and Brandon Williamson. No. I'm pretty underwhelmed by this group. I know the results for Lorenzen. And in particular, Dane Dunning, I don't know what's going on with the Rangers, but like every pitcher has just been incredible for like the last three weeks for them. I don't really understand it. Maybe it's like a space jam situation and Jacob de Grom's pitching powers got put into a baseball and then everybody touched them.
Starting point is 00:31:25 I don't know. But I don't see much with either Lorenzen or Dunning that is worth getting excited about, you know, Lorenzen, there's a little bit of. strikeout potential there, but not enough. I don't know. That's my general feeling on all four of those guys. Lorenzen has allowed two and runs total over his last three starts. He hasn't made a pitch mix change
Starting point is 00:31:52 this year. Throwing a traditional slider more. He's using it 18% of the time. That was only 4% last year. So a bit of a change there. I'm not overly optimistic. Dunning doesn't get a lot of whiffs, but he's done a good job in terms of just
Starting point is 00:32:08 limiting the hard contact, not in this start, but generally entering this one. He has done a good job of that. And it looks like he's at the Pirates next week. So a little bit more optimism there. Scott, anything you like to add on this group? Yeah, I'm to the point with Dunning where, and I had him as a sleeper pitcher this week, I had him as a streaming option yesterday. So I know I've been a little higher on him in general.
Starting point is 00:32:33 But I'm to the point with him where I get the skepticism. And more likely than not is probably going to fall apart. But, you know, when you have a 169 ERA and 0.88 whip at this point, even if I can't detect what exactly you're doing right, you must be doing something, right. You know, so I kind of just want to roster him until the magic wears off. Because maybe it never wears off. I mean, it didn't for Miles Michaelis last year. it didn't for
Starting point is 00:33:06 Tyler Anderson I guess Tyler Anderson they were clear with things what he was doing it didn't for Merrill Kelly you know maybe Dane Dunning is this year's version of that and if you never take a shot on that
Starting point is 00:33:17 then you never have a chance at that sure I think there's a difference between like hey add him and see where it goes but like my expectation is he's a four plus ERA pitcher probably though I will point out
Starting point is 00:33:31 350 XERA so far when in the past it's been closer to 450, like you've said. Scott, anything on Brandon Williamson who made his Reds debut? Well, you know, we were dismissive of it because he had an ERA over six in the minors last year. I will point out that before Bryce Miller got called up, he also had an ERA over six at AAA, and obviously that's gone very well as well. Brandon Williamson has had better years in the minors, years with a lot of strikeouts. I think the difference between him and somebody like Bryce Miller
Starting point is 00:34:06 is that Bryce Miller has the big fastball when Brandon Williamson it's more it's more a lot of different pitches a wide pitch mix none of them are going to be like an elite offering though so he did get 10 whiffs on 72 pitches which is a nice rate but he threw 32% cutters 31% fastballs, 18% sliders, 14% changeups.
Starting point is 00:34:33 Interestingly, seven of the 10 wists came on the slider and change up, which he threw a combined 32% of the time. So like that seems like a lower ceiling profile than somebody like Bryce Miller offers. So I'm going to make that comparison, and then I'm going to immediately reject it and say Brandon Williamson, while it is possible he becomes a useful fantasy pitcher this year,
Starting point is 00:35:01 I don't think this first start is reason to rush out and pick him up. I do want to say, because I haven't been on any of the Brace Miller podcast yet, I don't know how you guys feel. I think he's a cell high. Yeah, I would agree with that. I feel like there's a lot of hype around him that's not necessarily justified by the skill set. And the WIFs haven't been there the last two starts, even though he's gotten good results.
Starting point is 00:35:30 So I don't want to just completely undo. You know, it's one of those things that if you're not capable of hearing nuance, everything I'm saying is just going to sound confusing to you. Because I do think there's nothing wrong with holding on to Bryce Miller. He's probably going to be an asset for you. But I agree that the hype is probably exceeding what I expect from him at this point. And so from that perspective, it's not a bad idea. to shop Bryce Miller.
Starting point is 00:35:58 I think you use the right word. I think he's probably a better asset than a pitcher right now for fantasy. A big test this week too for Bryce Miller as he's going up against the Atlanta Braves, the toughest matchup that he's had yet. So we'll see how he fares in that one. A few waiver wire hitters,
Starting point is 00:36:15 outfielders in shallower leagues. Lorda's Guerriel hit his seventh home run here on Tuesday. He's batting three. I wrote this earlier, but he was betting 309 with a 928 OPEs. when I wrote it in. He's up to 78% rostered, so we're looking at 10-teamers in shallow 12-team leagues as well. Riley Green had three more hits. Now has the overall batting average up to 293, and so far in May, he's batting 412. Still not lots of power here, but, and lots of hits for Riley Green.
Starting point is 00:36:47 He has three seals in the month as well. Michael Kinfordo had two more hits over his last seven games. He's batting 440 with four-home runs, and Jaron Duran has slowed down a bit recently. but then had this huge game. Two for four with a sock and a shoe. The home run, 109 exit velocity, 417 feet. He's now betting 351 with three homers and seven steals. Chris, we'll start with you. Shallower leagues, Lordus Gurriel, Riley Green,
Starting point is 00:37:14 Michael Conforto, and Jaron Duran. How do you rank that group? I think I would go Duran Gurriel Green Conforto. I think that's how I'd rank. I don't know if that's what actually my rankings. suggest right now, but that is where my heart is right now. Like Riley Green's doing some good stuff. He's hitting the ball hard.
Starting point is 00:37:37 He's pulling the ball. Those are things that you want to see. But just hitting the ball on the ground way too much still. 57.1% ground ball rate is actually higher than it was last season. Remember, that was the big concern in the spring training was can he start elevating the ball and get the most out of his skill set? That's not what we're seeing so far. I think he's a useful player, but like this profile right now is more like a latter day Charlie Blackman with a little more speed, which is fine. It's okay to have a round, but not necessarily someone you get excited about.
Starting point is 00:38:14 Duran, I think, is showing the most upside for sure. And, you know, we've been hoping that he would start to tap into some of this because remember he had that breakout in the minors a couple of seasons ago when he started. elevating the ball a ton. We saw a big spring training from him. And then there was the weird thing where he was like on the Olympic team, but didn't go to the Olympics. And he was away from the Red Sox. And they didn't seem to want him to go to the Olympics. And this is a weird thing. And he never really got like a real chance in the majors. But I've been interested in his skill set. So I'm, I definitely have Jaron Duran at the top of that group. And it's a, it surprised me that he's still only 73% rostered. I mean, we went through a phase where we talked about him every single
Starting point is 00:38:56 day. And again, I know he was slowing down, but this is what he's capable of. Just shows you what kind of sway we actually have, Frank. Well, and if he had done this starting on April 1st or whatever, whenever opening day, March 30th, whatever opening day was, if he had been doing that on that date instead of, I don't know, April 17th or whatever, oh man, that called that one off the top of my head, nailed it. April 17th was when he made his debut. If he had done that on opening day, his roster rate would probably be close to 100%. And So it's one of those things where it's sort of, to a certain extent, a trick of the schedule. And we get more excited about guys in early May than we do in late May or early April than we do late April and early May.
Starting point is 00:39:39 I want to say this about Jaron Duran. I do have him at the top of this list of four as well because, you know, there's a, there's a, there's a, there's a diverse array of skills here that can make up for, a lack in one area or another. And plus, there's only such a high degree of confidence you can have in any of these players at this point. So I do have Jaron Durant number one on this list. But as you mentioned, Frank, he's come back down to Earth a bit. The exit velocities have normalized after being very high early on.
Starting point is 00:40:14 His expected batting average is now 278 versus his 351 actual batting average. His expected slug is now 440 versus his actual 585 slugging percentage. So, I mean, maybe it's not breaking news that, okay, Jaron Duran is going to regress from these numbers, but how high is the ceiling actually? You know, we're not talking about a potential top 15 outfielder here. We're talking about a potential top 25, top 30 outfielder here, which is still certainly worth rostering off the waiver wire.
Starting point is 00:40:48 But, you know, I just want to put that in perspective. I'm also starting to get excited about Lordus Gariel, who would be number two on this list for me, because, you know, last year it was, he struggled to hit for any power, was it because of the dead ball or whatever, that was all we could speculate. But then we find out afterward that he had a wristage issue all year and he had surgery to correct it in the off season. It's hard to generate much power when your wrist is hurting.
Starting point is 00:41:14 And so now we're seeing his power look more like, like what we've seen from Gurriel in the past. There have been some playing time issues this year, but he's now started seven of the Diamondbacks last. eight games has Lord Escorial. So he's to the point now where I think he's he needs to be
Starting point is 00:41:33 rostered in most leagues, even of the three outfielder variety, probably. So those are my top two. I would agree with that. He's two for five tonight, by the way. A few corner infielers, how do we rank this group? Ezekiel Duran went one for four, hit his sixth
Starting point is 00:41:49 home run, and it was a shot, 443 feet. Kind of wondering where he's going to when Corey Seeger returns, but I think he played a lot of left field before Seeger went down. So I think he could just slot there on an everyday basis with the way he's performed. That's my hope anyway. Yeah, he's bat in 2.92 with an 817 OPS. Matt Mervis went 2 for 4 with his first career home run.
Starting point is 00:42:12 110.7 exit velocity right down the line. It hit off the right field foul pole. Yohan Moncada went 2 for 4 with a walk, double, two runs, and an RBI. He's got five hits in four games since returning. And Casey Schmidt, he only went one for three, but had three more hard hit balls, two 100 plus miles per hour off of Zach Wheeler. So pretty impressive pitcher to do that off of. Schmidt is batting 452 early on, the average active velocity, the barrel rate.
Starting point is 00:42:42 Both of those look impressive so far. Scott, how would you rank this group? Ezekiel Duran, Matt Mervis, Yowal Moncotta, and Casey Schmidt. I'm going to take Mervis number one still. Slow start, but, you know. You get a pass for that first stint in the majors. The fact he hit that home run 110 miles per hour, I think, shows the extent of his upside.
Starting point is 00:43:05 So Mervis number one. I'll go Duran 2 by a razor-thin margin over Schmidt. And, you know, obviously that could change quickly if Duran doesn't continue to get the playing time, I hope. He gets. And I'll go Munkata 4th. And he's not that far behind the other two third base options. I just have really no idea what to expect from Alcada.
Starting point is 00:43:28 All right. And then in deeper leagues, Mickey Moniac has played three games with the Angels so far. He's got five hits, two homers, and two steals. I don't know how he's going to play. They very clearly have three outfielers there. I mean, maybe it comes at the expense of like Taylor Ward if he continues to struggle. But, I mean, Moniac has been awesome. So far, he was performing really well in the minors as well.
Starting point is 00:43:51 Kevin Kiermire. You know, it won't be DH. That's for sure. That's right. Kevin Kirmire had two hits, including his third home run. He is batting 327 with a 909 OPS so far. Jose Siri, one for four with a sock and a shoe. He's got a low batting average, but five home runs and four steals so far. Robbie Grossman went two for four with an RBI and runs scored. He's hitting well recently. And Gavin Sheets, one for five with his fifth home run added three RBI. Chris, any names that stand out here, we're talking, you know, 14, 15 team leagues with five outfielders. and more. Moniac, Kiermeyer, Siri, Grossman, and Gavin Sheets.
Starting point is 00:44:27 Siri was showing some really interesting skills. I think he went on the IL after like the first week or two with a hamstring injury, I believe. And, you know, he was showing some interesting skills. I think there's, you know, certainly the physical tools are very impressive for Jose Siri. The 32% strikeout rate, pretty tough to, uh, overcome. Moniac, I mean, he's a former number one overall pick. It, it's sort of. of reminds me of, you guys remember Tim Beckham randomly, like having a decent run with, I can't remember he was, he was with the raise first and then the Orioles in 2017. And it was like, do we take this seriously?
Starting point is 00:45:08 I don't know, but, you know, I think it's probably nothing. But I wrote him up in, I think, one of the waiver wire pieces earlier this week. So, you know, in very deep leagues. let's see. Goodhold. Now you got me looking up Tim Beckham stats, man. He had the 22 homer season.
Starting point is 00:45:28 That's right. That's what I'm looking at. 2017 with Tampa and Baltimore. 22 homers, 278 batting average. Long live, Tim Beckham. Let's take our final break when we return. A little late for news and notes, but we'll get to it right after this. The news and notes.
Starting point is 00:45:44 Tage Bradley is under consideration along with somebody named Cooper Criswell to start for the raise on Wednesday against the Mets. Tage Bradley down to 73% rostered. Scott, are you looking to re-add Tage Bradley in shallower leagues if he was dropped? Yeah, I mean, I'd go for him over Matthew Liberator for a number of reasons.
Starting point is 00:46:06 Yep, agreed. Vlad Jr. will undergo an MRI on his right knee after leaving Tuesday night with right knee discomfort. Jacob de Grom threw a light bullpen on Tuesday. He'll likely advance to more traditional bullpens in the coming days before going out on a rehab assignment, assuming he makes it that far. Fingers crossed.
Starting point is 00:46:24 Tyler Glassnell threw four shutout innings with nine strikeouts in his rehab start at AAA on Tuesday night. Eloy Jimenez was cleared to run the bases and could resume swinging by this weekend. He's still at least a few weeks away after having an appendectomy earlier in May. Mason Miller has been diagnosed with a mild UCL sprain in his right elbow. He's going to be shut down from throwing for a while, but the A's believe Miller will return the season. not sure that I completely buy that,
Starting point is 00:46:51 but we honestly have no idea when Mason Miller could return. There's no such thing as a mild UCL sprain for a pitcher, but especially when there's 102 miles an hour. So yeah, if we see him at all this year, I think that's a win.
Starting point is 00:47:05 If you need an IL spot or are you playing a league that doesn't have IL spots, I think you could go ahead and drop Mason Miller. It turns out the Yankees are big old cheaters after all as Domingo Hermann was ejected because of a substance found on his hand and he got accused of this earlier in the year,
Starting point is 00:47:22 and for whatever reason, just continued to use that substance. And here you go. They let him get away with it last time. They let him just watch it. It was the same umpiring crew, uh, as tonight's start apparently. So, so weird.
Starting point is 00:47:37 And yeah, that's also the, uh, the Blue Jays pitcher. I can't remember his name, but the guy who gave up the home run to Aaron judge. I saw a headline that he, he was tip tipping his pitches last night. So. Oh, Much to do about nothing.
Starting point is 00:47:50 Oh, the home run from yesterday, not tonight. Aaron Judge just homering every day. I'm like, I can't keep up. He's pretty good. He is pretty good. I mean, just like the biggest non-story story that I've ever seen with that whole like Aaron judge situation. Anyway, Domingo Hermann will be suspended for 10 games. Liam Hendricks will make another rehab's appearance at AAA on Thursday.
Starting point is 00:48:11 And he's struggled so far, which is totally reasonable given the circumstances. He has an 11.25 ERA in five. appearances in the minors. Yandi Diaz was out of the lineup again Tuesday, not again, just for the first time, with left groin tightness. Jose Ramirez was placed on the bereavement list and prospect
Starting point is 00:48:30 Brian Rochio was recalled as a result. Sounds like it'll only be a few days for Rochio to be up with the team. Maybe he'll appear in a game this time. I think he actually had a pinch hit appearance. Oh, did he? I thought he got called up and didn't even play. Yeah, I think that was the last time he got called up.
Starting point is 00:48:47 But yeah. Corey Seeger. was not activated Tuesday because of a stomach bug. Josh Naler exited with left leg tightness. He was replaced by Gabriel Arias in that one. Wade Miley left his start with a left last train. Carlos Carrasco will likely return to the Metz Rotation Friday against who? The Guardian's revenge game for Carlos Carrasco.
Starting point is 00:49:08 Walker Bueller said he's aiming for a return to the mound on September 1st, considering he had Tommy John in August of last year. September of this year sounds pretty aggressive. I think the thing to keep in mind there would be if his return to the mound lines up with the end of the minor league season, it might be a situation where like, that's the only opportunity to get him in games.
Starting point is 00:49:34 Yeah. You know, because there was someone that that happened with last year. I can't remember who it was, but someone returned from Tommy John's surgery without going to the minors or some serious injury. And I think that was the situation. So that could be the timing there.
Starting point is 00:49:48 And it wouldn't surprise me if it's as a reliever as well, not even as a starter there for Walker Bueller. Kyle Hendricks will make at least one more rehab start in the minors before returning to the Cubs. Omar Nervailles will begin a rehab assignment next week. And Scott, are you worried about that potentially affecting Francisco Alvarez? Yeah. Yeah, I didn't think it was going to happen this soon. And Alvarez has been swinging the bat well, so maybe he's,
Starting point is 00:50:16 He's earned a bigger share of the starts from behind the play. But it really comes down to how comfortable are the Mets with him defensively. And I haven't seen too many reports saying they are or they aren't. You know, the fact he's a 21-year-old handling the costliest pitching staff in major league history. I just made up that staff, but I'm pretty sure it's true. It certainly sounded right. You said it with a fiction. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:50:44 These are pretty expensive too. Yeah, no, I don't know. I mean, I just moved Francisco Alvarez up to 12th in my rest of season catcher rankings because I've been so excited by how much it's been playing, how well I've been hitting. But this throws a wrinkle in that, and I think we just have to wait and see how it plays out. Take this for whatever it's worth. But according to Stackass, Francisco Alvarez's 90th percentile in framing so far this season. Pretty good stuff.
Starting point is 00:51:14 Well, I wasn't expecting you to say that. He has not had a DH appearance yet, right? I don't believe he has. Yeah, I don't think he, last I checked, which is over the weekend he hadn't. And that was the one thing that they said when he got called up was, you know, we're not going to use him at DH at first, but he could force our hand.
Starting point is 00:51:31 And hopefully that's what happens, right? Hopefully it's like maybe it's a 40-60 split at catcher, or maybe it's a 50-50 split, but then he gets a starter to a week at DH, and you can basically just keep him in your catcher spot. I'm hoping that's what happens. Lastly, Rangers pitching prospect, Kumar Rocker will have Tommy John surgery later this week. A few pitchers got knocked around on Tuesday night.
Starting point is 00:51:56 I only wrote down two of them here. See if you have any thoughts on these two. Luis Castillo hit hard at the Red Sox, five innings, seven runs. Five of those earned three homers allowed in this start. The velocity was actually up across the board. 11 hard hits, 98.1 average exit velocity against Castillo. And over his last five starts, a 567 ERA, a 144 whip. And Justin Verlander only his third start back with the Mets,
Starting point is 00:52:23 but didn't look too good up against the race. Five innings, six runs, two homers allowed in that one. Scott, any thoughts on Castillo or Verlander? I mean, not any, not huge concerns. Luis Castillo, this is a longer, rough patch than we usually see from a pitcher his caliber five straight non-quality starts four of them um just five innings and length not not going the minimum even for a quality start and he he he seems to be changing his pitch mix a lot really that's that's happened ever since he joined
Starting point is 00:52:59 the mariners and he got a two seamer to go with that four seamer and uh more confidence in the slider the change up used to be his bread and butter and he's he doesn't throw throw it that often. The change of usage this season, before tonight had been like 15%. It was actually 30% tonight. Yeah. And the slider was getting hit hard. So it made sense that he was turning to change up.
Starting point is 00:53:22 Obviously, it didn't help the results. But I mean, I think it's just, I think it's something he's going to pull out of. Obviously, he looked great at the start of the year. And we've seen him struggle for stretches before. So I wouldn't freak out over him. Verlander, the fact that you know, obviously he's 40 and
Starting point is 00:53:43 and he's coming back from what was the injury he had again? It was a sub-scapular strain like what Brian and Woodruff had? No, I think it was like the major terrace. It's like a muscle It was a legit pitching shoulder. So like how
Starting point is 00:54:00 is he really 100% how well does a 40 year old recover in general from injuries like that. I think these are fair questions. He was great in his last start. Average exit velocity against him in this start was, you know, fine. He gave up a couple home runs, but 86.3 is, you know,
Starting point is 00:54:19 but there's nothing wrong with that. So, again, I want to freak out, but I think there's more cause for concern with Justin Verlander than Castillo. A few pitching leftovers from Tuesday night. Josiah Gray has allowed three earned runs or fewer in eight straight starts. He was at the Marlins, seven innings, two runs, five strikeouts in that one. On the other side, Jesus Lazardo, six innings, one run, seven strikeouts with 16 swinging strikes. Kevin Gosman racks up another 10 strikeouts up against the Yankees.
Starting point is 00:54:50 He went seven innings, three runs. Two of those were earned, 16 more swinging strikes for him. And Christian Javier makes it three straight quality starts. He was facing the Cubs, six innings, one run, five strikeouts for him. Chris, anything you'd like to add on Javier, Gosman, Lazzardo, and Josiah Gray? Not on Javier, Gosman, and Luzardo. I think those guys are all awesome. Lazzardo, the only question is whether he can stay healthy,
Starting point is 00:55:17 which, you know, keeps him in, for me, it's more like the low-end SP3, high-end SP4 range of my rankings, but it's one of those where it's like, while he's pitching, he might be a top 25 guy. It's just, I think last season was the first time he's thrown 100 innings since he was like 23 or something. It's been a long time. Josiah Gray, you know, Scott, you mentioned earlier
Starting point is 00:55:41 blanking on which picture we were talking about. Dane Dunning, you know, might be one of the like Merrill Kelly types. I should think Josiah Gray is kind of turning into that type, which is in some ways a little bit disappointing because we had high expectations for him and we hope that he could, you know, break out and harness some of the swing and miss
Starting point is 00:56:03 potential and become a better strikeout pitcher. But like, I don't know if it's fair to expect that at this point. You know, the cutter introduction has mostly served to limit the amount of hard contact that he gives up rather than, you know, taking his game to another level in terms of swings and misses. But like, you know, the 296, or 273 ERA is backed up by like a 360 XER, which that's not great. you would expect some regression, but it's a significant improvement from what we've seen. I think it makes Josiah Gray a useful fantasy option. On a better team, he'd be even more useful. But it's, you know, I think a low ceiling, but I'm starting to think he might be like a relatively high floor type of pitcher.
Starting point is 00:56:50 I'm a little more worried about Gray. If you look at the, the whip is 1.35. Sure. Yeah, that's. FIP and XFIP don't trust it. And the walks are really high. 3.8 walks per night. I had to imagine at some point those are going to come back to bite Josiah Gray.
Starting point is 00:57:05 I was going to say, like, can you get anything for him in a trade right now? I don't think so, but I might look around and see. I think it's reasonable to try to trade him. But I'm a little more, I have a little more confidence in him, you know, pitching closer to like the mid to high threes than, you know, a low fours or mid-four CRI, like his fit might suggest. All right. A few hitting leftovers, Aaron Judge, locked in, as we mentioned earlier, now has five home runs in his last four games.
Starting point is 00:57:36 Noon Aronano has homered in five straight, and Estuary Ruiz becomes the first player to 20 steals this season and is currently on pace for 73 steals. A few. We're not going to get an 80 guy this year. I want 80. I just shouts to Asteroa Ruiz for also leading the majors and hit by pitch. He's got nine of them, only six walks. Nice.
Starting point is 00:58:00 Love that. Love a guy who does that. That's a legitimate skill. And it's helping keep his OVP more than respectable at 330. That's that's downright decent. Mack Meadow's got to be outpacing him with the hit by pitches. Yeah, he's got like five or six, right? He's seven.
Starting point is 00:58:18 Oh, wow. In 28 games. Yeah. Love it. Scott, I was going to say, obviously every team faces each other at least once this year. If the A's match up with a series against the Dodgers and they face Noes Guard, S. A. Rui Ruiz.
Starting point is 00:58:32 Yeah, he might get to 80. He might just get to 80 steals this year. I think Cindergards already given up 11. Oh, gosh. Oh, man. Wow. I was watching the Dodgers game earlier, too, and Austin Barnes cannot throw to second base. It is a problem.
Starting point is 00:58:46 He does, like, the sidearm or, like, submarine throw from catcher, and, like, the twins were just running wild on him. So, if anyone is out there, if you want to bet on, like, stolen base props, do it when Austin Parnes is the catcher. Yeah, Cindergards given up 10 without a cot stealing so far. Yeah, it's rough. A few bullpen updates for the Nationals. Kyle Finnegan worked in the eighth inning with a two-run lead
Starting point is 00:59:09 facing five, six, and seven in the Marlins lineup. And then Hunter Harvey got the ninth. It seemed like, okay, maybe this is kind of a passing of the torch. Maybe Hunter Harvey's the closer. He gave up a three-run walk-off Homer to Jorge Soler. Chris, just another one-run victory for your Miami Marlins. I don't know how they're doing it, but they're doing it. They did finally lose a one-run game.
Starting point is 00:59:33 They're now 13 and 1, and I think they're 500 now. That's crazy. That's alarming. Worst run differential in the National League. Jorge Salar, by the way, one of the most visually appealing home run swings in all baseball. It's just so vicious. I love it.
Starting point is 00:59:50 That home run in Game 6 of the World Series. It hasn't landed here, Scott. I'm going to be, yeah, that's, that's, that's, that's an image that will never leave my mind. It should not. For the Rangers, Will Smith truck out one for his eighth save. He's up to 68% rostered. And if you need saves or you just need a reliever and a points league,
Starting point is 01:00:11 yes, go out and add Will Smith. For the Yankees, Clay Holmes pitched in the eighth with a two-run lead facing the heart of the Blue Jays lineup, 4, 5, and 6. Wandi Peralta once again got the ninth. He walked one but picked up his third save in the past five games. I think this is a pretty open committee. right now, it's Peralta, it's Michael King. Maybe Clay Holmes works back in,
Starting point is 01:00:32 but if you're desperate for saves in a deeper league, Wandi Peralta is 14% rostered. For the Reds, Alexis Diaz picked up his 10th save. For the Giants, Camillo DeVal, gave up a solo home run, but picked up his 10th save, and Scott Barlow also picked up his fifth save.
Starting point is 01:00:48 To stream or not to stream, let's take a look at Wednesday. And actually, I guess I could put Matthew Liberator in this mix, too, if you guys have any interest in that. He's going up against the Marlins. Not the Marlins, the Brewers, excuse me. They're really bad against Lefties, the Brewers.
Starting point is 01:01:07 That's true. That is true. So maybe it's something you can look at. I mentioned Brian Bayo yesterday. He's going up against the Mariners. I like that way. Look, I don't love the concept of starting a guy right after he's called up, but I don't love the concept of streamer pitchers in the first place.
Starting point is 01:01:23 I will say my cleverer's been pretty underwhelming, but Cleveland with no hose. I mean, this has been a historically bad offense so far, and now they don't have Jose Ramirez. So it's a good point. I would be surprised if he didn't have a good start. Okay. So Clevenger Bayo and Scott kind of a maybe on Liberator?
Starting point is 01:01:46 I think yesterday when we're looking at Wednesday slate, I said Edward Cabrera against the Nationals. I think so too. With somebody I'd think about. And now you've thought about it. Well, look, I don't actually want to start any of these guys, but that's not the game we're playing here. Well, Scott, I change up the whole way we do this so that you don't say no to every pitcher anymore. All right, exactly.
Starting point is 01:02:08 Let's get it to Thursday. Lots of Tyler's. Tyler Wells, I'll mention, he's up to 77% rostered. So if he's available, up against the Angels, I think that's fine. And that's it. I don't know. Thursday is a pretty short slate, so it's bad. I guess the fact that's in Baltimore helps Tyler Wells case.
Starting point is 01:02:30 I mean, the Angels have some thunderous hitters in their lineup, but he gives up a lot of fly balls. But hey, I recommended Bailey Ober against the Dodgers, so why not Taylor Wells against the Angels? Similar profiles there. Ober with a little more strikeout potential. I assume Yuri Perez is too rostered now to count for this. He's up to, I think, 85%.
Starting point is 01:02:52 Yeah. Yeah. So it's Tyler Wells or bust on Thursday. We're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. We'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.

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