Fantasy Baseball Today - Last Offseason Mailbag! Sleepers on Different Site, 10-Team Leagues & More! (3/25 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 25, 2023

When should you draft a falling Michael Harris and Jacob deGrom (1:30)? ... Which players can you target for long-term upside if you're not competing this year (5:40)? ... We know about SPARPs but who are the best RPASPs (10:36)? ... How does early-season weather affect Fantasy (13:30)? ... Does Kyle Tucker have more upside following Jose Altuve's injury (19:10)? ... Let's challenge Scott's scarcity analysis (22:32). ... Which players are ranked lower in Yahoo and ESPN (33:13)? ... Oneil Cruz vs. Jordan Walker (36:52). ... Does the Marmol strategy still work (45:00)? ... What changes in 10-team leagues (49:10)? Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Fantasy Baseball Today is a finalist in the Baseball Category for the Sports Podcast Awards! Quickly create an account and vote here: https://www.sportspodcastgroup.com/sports_category/best-baseball-podcast/ Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. What's up and welcome in to our final mailbag of the offseason here on Fantasy Baseball today. Frank Sample joined by Scott White and Chris Towers.

Today on the show about half and half with your emails. and Apple Podcast Review Questions. If you're watching us on YouTube, please like this video and subscribe to the channel if you haven't already. And if you're listening on the audio side, make sure to download, follow, and leave a five-star review.

Really appreciate it. If you miss any of our recent shows, you can always go back and listen on demand. Big thanks all off-season to those who sent in a question. Apologies if we didn't get to yours. I mean, there are just so many. And I mean that in a good way.

I'm not complaining, but it's just a lot to get. to. A reminder that if you are sending in an email, Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com, try to keep it as concise as possible. I look through the emails. We get like these essays, which I appreciate, but it's just harder to get to when they're super long emails. Let's jump right in and we'll start with this one from Jake. Quick question regarding two players I've noticed falling in my drafts, who I'm not particularly interested in, but feels like I'm missing out on some value with how late they've fallen. At what point in ADP do you feel the needs?

to draft Michael Harris and Jacob de Grom. Well, I've said before Michael Harris, while I do have him as a bust candidate this year, because he just, for as much as he puts the ball on the ground for as bad as his plate discipline is, it seems unlikely his batting average and home run rate are going to improve, and it seems more likely they're going to get worse. So I do have him as a bust candidate.

However, having said that, Outfield is a, position that becomes very scarce very quickly. And especially in like a standard roto league, five outfielder league, if Michael Harris is there in the middle of round three, I'm probably going to take him because there is that possibility of five category production at a very scarce position. And at the end of the day, I'm only so confident in my bust claim for him.

So I don't mind taking him at that point. I don't think he has to fall that far for me to be persuaded. to take him. DeGrom is a different story. I also have DeGrom as a bust this year, but I'm so confident in his inability to last, to hold up over even like half a season, that I've actually moved him down quite a bit in my rankings,

just to the point where I can feel pretty confident I'll never be faced with the prospect of taking him. He's between like Aaron Nola and Shane Bieber for me and my starting pitcher rankings. Chris, I don't know if you had anything and sound like you wanted to say something? Yeah, with regards to the Grom, I have no confidence in his ability to stay healthy. I also don't have much confidence in my ability to project injuries.

So he's still 35th overall for me. He's actually in between Aeronola and Shane Bieber for me as well. It's just I have Shane Bieber apparently a little higher, or Aeronola a little higher, excuse me. So I haven't drafted him. It's unlikely that I will, but I'm less opposed to it than I think. Scott is Michael Harris. I have him as a bust as well for all the reasons that Scott said. I also have him on my, I wrote this last week.

I think the players I need to draft at least once team. Maybe you could call it the FOMO league or FOMO teams because like he was the number 12 outfielder last season, despite playing, I think, 114 games, which is one, a measure of how impressive Michael Harris was. And to a measure of how unimpressive the rest of the outfield crop was, that a player who only played 114 games was able to be a top 12 option. But there's obvious skills there. He's fast. He's athletic. He hits the ball really hard.

He's the kind of player that just needs small improvements in his batted ball data to take a huge step forward. So I'm certainly not entirely opposed. And if he's there, for me, it's more like the end of round three. I have him 34th. So if I, if I'm picking first overall, no, 12th overall. And he's there at the end of round three. I'm happy to take him. But I usually don't, I would say.

So Jacob de Grom, I just look this up. I have him at 37 and head to head points, 38 in Roto. That's the, that's early round four in a 12 team league. I've never seen Jacob deGrom last that long. So kind of similar to you, Scott. I just kind of lowered him to the point where I don't think I'm going to get Jacob deGrom. Same thing could be said for Michael Harris.

I have him at 49 and head to head points. That's early fifth round. I haven't seen that. That's his worst format. Is that what this question is addressing? Had to add points? I don't think so. No, I'm just hitting on both because they didn't mention.

Gotcha. And then in Roto, I have him at 44. So middle of the fourth, again, I never see Michael Harris last. You really hate him. No, no, I don't hate him. I don't hate anyone, Chris. But I'm a little bit worried about just the things that we continuously bring up. He could completely make me look stupid.

I realize that with Michael Harris. But I just wanted him at a point where I, make a statement and I'm just not going to draft Michael Harris this year. So, all right, let's move on to the next one. This one's from Daniel. I'm in a 14-team, nine-player, OBP keeper with no restrictions on our keepers. While I have a decent team, I don't feel like I'm in a position to win my league, and I was thinking about taking some high upside slash risky picks that I could probably

never acquire, if not for injuries. Lars Newport is the exception. I was thinking of taking some of the following players and I love if you could rank them, not this year, but for their long-term upside. So we've got Royce Lewis, Alex Kirillov, Lars Neupar, Seya Suzuki, Walker Bueller, and Michael Kopeck. Bueller's easy number one. I think so, yeah.

Coming back from second Tommy John surgery, so I don't think it's a slam dunk. He resumes being an ace, but... And there were troubling signs in his performance last year even before he got hurt, so, you know. A lot of times that is a precursor to... a Tommy John surgery. But yeah,

worth noting. I would still say, he has enough of a history as a true ace that he's the most likely to be a huge asset beginning next year. Second, I think we got to go New Bar at this point. I think New Bar and Suzuki probably have similar upside. Yeah.

But obviously Suzuki's a little older, less development left. so I think it's fine to put Nupar ahead of him. Yeah, I mean, I don't think there's a clear order beyond Bueller. Yeah. I would go Bueller. You know, I'm actually going to go Royce Lewis over Newpar because... That's fair.

Yeah. More assurances in what his role is going to be when coming back from his second ACL tear. Even so. Yep. So Bueller, Royce Lewis, Lars Nupar. I would go Suzuki over Kerala, but I think Scott's going to go Kerala over Suzuki. I still love Kira Lov. Because he was really good in the minors three years ago.

No, he was really good in the minors last year. No, I know. I know. I'm ridiculous. I'm, I'm joshing you. Does he even have a wrist left, Scott? I feel like every time we talk,

they've shaved another part of this wrist. Yeah, they're just shaving a little bit down every. It's, it's like, uh, I was going to make a dumb joke. So we're pretty much out on co-pick as an upside play then. Is that where we're engaging here?

Yeah, he just, he got very few swings and misses last year once he moved to the rotation. And his overall number is, weren't terrible, but his velocity's been down in the spring, I'm pretty sure. And I just, or actually, he hasn't, he hasn't pitched in a game yet in the spring, has he? He has.

Okay. I definitely know he's been behind and he's, yeah, I don't know. It's possible because he's talked about how, you know, last year he had to learn how to pitch because he didn't have, uh, you know, the velocity that he's used to, but he also still doesn't. So I just, yeah, I don't, I don't think it's going to happen for him. Yeah, I think it's Bueller at the top. Some order of Royce Lewis, Lars Neupar, Say Suzuki in the middle.

And then it would be Kirloff and Kopeck for me on the bottom. I would probably take Kopec over Alex Kierloff, but that's because I'm like the anti-Kirloff and Scott hates me for it. All right. Let's move over to Chris. This one is Chris Sowers. Hi, Roy, Leslie, and Ted.

I saw you highlighting this one. Apparently you've missed the cultural sensation that is Ted Lassow. I mean, Chris, are you surprised by him? At all. Scott, have you watched it? I have. Oh, you have.

Oh, you have. Contrary in Scott. Yeah. So I guess you missed my most trafficked tweet last year, which was simply Ted Lassow sucks and you all deceived me. Wow. Wow. What a hater.

What is that show. even about. I have no idea. It's about people. It's about friendship. You know, it's about the friends we made along the way. It's a little. It's a little vapid at times, I feel like. But we don't have to get into it here.

I cannot recommend Ted Lassau with the same enthusiasm that I recommended Parks and Recreation a week or two ago. Parks and Recreation is, I think, a much better show. Wow, really. You're talking about Ted Lassow for being VAPid. And then pumping up Parks and Rack. Wow. Wow.

You just earned yourself five emails. Inconsistency. Five emails, Scott, are coming in with Scott's take on Ted Lasso as the subject line. So there you go. I do like it. It's better than Space Jam. I did. I did like the Nate twist at the end of season two.

I thought it had a chance of maybe giving the show a little bit of teeth. I don't know where it's gone at the start of season three, but that that did. offers a little hope for me with Ted Lassow. All right, well, let's answer Chris's question. I'm in a daily head to head points league with a weekly starting SP start limit. So SPARPs are not really an advantage. However, because of the format, I figured

that would mean the opposite would be true where RPs as SPs, or otherwise known as our PASPs, I just kind of coined that a couple years ago. Our former starters who are now relievers would have additional value since we also have three points for holds, seven for saves, who might be some relievers that might fit that eligibility and give me an advantage. So I looked into this on CBS and for Yahoo, because I think that's where most people asking this question probably are playing. And on CBS, Matt Bush with the Brewers,

John Brebria with the Giants, Andre Palante with the Cardinals, Jalen Beaks with the Reyes, Matt Brash with the Mariners, Jordan Hicks with the Cardinals, and Keegan Thompson with the Cups. And then in Yahoo, it's a lot of the same names. It's Matt Bush. J.T. Chargoua with the Miami Marlins, Scott Alexander with the Giants, Jalen Beeks, Keegan Thompson, John Brebia, Andre Palante. This is a very specific question. I don't know if you guys have any names off the top of your head, but these are the ones that I could find.

I think it's probably not really worth the, I think the juice is probably not worth the squeeze in this instance. I've never played in a league like this, but my thought is you're probably chasing relatively thin margins that aren't worth the roster spaces that you're using, but I can see them being useful throughout the season, just not necessarily people you'd want on your team throughout the year. We've had people ask some form of this question in the past too. So I mean,

it's probably a pretty small audience, but I think if you play in a daily head-toed points league with the lineup setup where it's like two SPs, two RPs, and like three or four pitcher spots, yeah, I think if you can pick up some holds or just some random reliever points from,

you know, these guys in your SP spots, then why not? So those are the names that I would target there. This one's from Andrew. Hi, Levan, Robbie, Richard, and Rick. That's Levin. That's how you pronounce this. And this is the band. Oh, who's that, Chris? Levin Helms, Robbie Robertson, Richard Manuel, and Rick Denko. They were originally Bob Dylan's backing band in the 1960s. Then they went off to do their own thing,

released one of the greatest albums of all time, I think in 1965, music from Big Pink. Great stuff. You've heard the weight, I'm sure. I'm sure I have. That's probably a song that you guys have heard. So this is Bob Dylan's. The last waltz is one of the greatest concert movies of all time. All right. I mean,

I grew up on all this kind of old classic rock, folk rock. I don't know what you want to call it type music with my dad. So I've heard the songs. I just don't know what they're called. So I probably have heard it. And you've definitely heard the weight. I'm sure I have.

This is from Big Pink came out in 1968. Apologies for spreading fake news. How's the weather over there? Have you guys given any thought to what happened last April? with poor hitting and maybe going very pitching heavy in the first month, trying to get as many starts in as possible while the weather is bad. If so, which cities should I look to stream pitchers in? Now, this is very specific.

I think though, first name that comes to my mind, Scott, and you've already brought it up is Marcus Semyon. He struggled last April, and I feel like he gets off to a slow start every year. So there's one, but this is something while it was happening last year, I kind of thought about it too. I'm like, maybe we should stream more starters earlier. in the season in April if we think offense is going to be down. It makes sense.

You're talking about quantity, like having more pitchers on your roster to maximize two-star weeks. Is that what you're talking about? Because, like, I don't know that it makes sense to target pitching like early in drafts. And then what do you do when the cold spells over? You trade them all away. Yeah, that would be the idea is that you take advantage of people, I guess, misremembering, not remembering how the season went last year, but like last, last.

year, if you bought low on hitting and sold high on pitching, just as a general rule, you probably came out ahead in April. Yeah, I mean, I don't play in leagues that are active enough in trading. Maybe my dynasty leagues are, but the seasonal ones, there's not an active enough trade market for me to feel confident in that strategy. So that's A. B, it was cold basically through May last year. It was like May 20th that finally started to warm up around the country.

So it was just a really cold start to the season. And Marcus Simeon was somebody who struggled, especially the first two months, not just April. So that's B.C. It was unseasonably cold. If memory serves, it was unseasonably cold in California, in particular early last season, which exacerbated the issue.

So I'm not a weather forecaster, but I don't think we should treat. Like, I do think there's something to the idea that with the ball being, stored at this certain temperature and humidity, it's not going to carry as well in cold weather as it has historically. But I don't think we should treat last year as the norm in terms of how long that cold weather will last and how widespread it'll be. So I wouldn't advise that approach. I would advise, though, if you haven't to draft Simeon or you haven't to draft somebody who's

playing in cold weather early in the year to not panic about a slow start if it is a hitter. I think as a general rule though, Chris, what you were saying is if you look to, you could look to buy low on hitters that have a true track record at the end of April. Maybe if they get off to a slow start, maybe it's weather related. Maybe it's just a slow start to begin the season. I think that makes sense and maybe sell high on some pitchers that we don't really trust to keep this going after the first month of the season also makes sense as well. I do want to bring it up here because it's somewhat relevant. and I've been wanting to say it. Ozzy Albis, remember we were worried about how his power

would translate with the new ball because the most we saw of him last year, he struggled in the colder environment. He does have three home runs in 12 games this spring. So I think that's an encouraging first sign. Obviously, it's warmer where he's training in Florida than it's going to be at a lot of places in April, but we were worried how his power would play

even mid-season with the new ball. Small sample, of course. course, but I think it's an encouraging first sign. And as for the last part of that question, cities and where you could stream pictures in, I wouldn't overdo it, but obviously the ones in like the middle, northern, northeastern part of the country, I think make a ton of sense. Like New York, just looking at the divisions, New York, Baltimore, Boston, Chicago, Minnesota, Detroit, honestly, the entire AL Central probably.

AL West, Seattle. No, but they have a, they have a tractable roof there. They do, right? Seattle, I believe they do. I would assume so. It famously rains a lot in Seattle. Yeah. Philadelphia, Washington, those make sense. St. Louis, Chicago, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, but bad teams there. So you get the idea. Let's move on to our next question. This one's from Andy. We already drafted in our 14 team Roto Keeper League. I give Teosker Hernandez and Andrew Heaney. I get Luis Robert. Do we value Luis Robert that much higher than

Tiosker or are they similar enough to keep him and avoid the injury risk of Luis Robert? I think that's a fine trade, yeah. It's more I don't have confidence in Heaney holding up. It gets trickier since it's a 14 team and not the usual 12 teamer, so you have to value depth a little more than we normally give it credit for. But, I mean, best case scenario for Luis Robert is, I think, still potentially first round production and Teoska Hernandez doesn't have that in him.

So yeah, I think I'd do it. All right, this next one. By the way, T-Mobile does have a retractable roof. So nobody has to follow up with that. Yes. This one's from Scott. White? Different Scott.

Dear Marcus, Seneca and Zeno. Those are Stoic philosophers. I did have to look it up, but I want to, I did read recently a book that touched on the Stoic philosophers. So I kind of knew. what it was. I saw Seneca there and I was wondering if it was Wallace's. Remember Seneca Wallace? That's probably the only Seneca that I am aware of Scott. Yeah, okay. I had a college roommate named Seneca. Interesting. Not a great guy. Does the Jose Altuvae injury impact Kyle Tucker's value in a

significant way? If he moves into the number two spot in the lineup and ends up keeping it for the rest of the season, would that bump in counting stats push him into a comparable value to Julio Rodriguez, maybe slightly less upside, but slightly more of a floor. Kyle Tucker currently dealing with an ankle injury as well. It doesn't sound too serious, but the first thing that came to mind when the Altuve injury happened is that Jeremy Payne would be pushed up the lineup. Now Michael Brantley is probably going to start the season on the IL as well, so I don't, maybe we get Pena and Kyle Tucker at the top.

I haven't been monitoring the Astros lineups, but Rasta Resource does have, as the Astros projected line at Pena first and Tucker second. Yes. With this injury. Now, of course, Jose Altuve, the timeline more officially now is late May, early June, which I think is what we were thinking all along. So it's not a situation where he's going to miss more than a third of the season. But I think the gist of this question is if Kyle Tucker performs well enough in the number

two spot that Dusty Baker isn't inclined to move him out of it even after Altuve returns. It's just a lot of ifs. You know, it's not something I think you can count on. And I was saying yesterday, I still like Juan Soto more than Tucker. I'm back to moving Gordon Alvarez ahead of Tucker. This news doesn't change that in my mind. I would also point out, while it's likely Kyle Tucker will open the season up as the number two hitter. Michael Brantley shouldn't be long.

And I believe Dusty Baker said he was going to bat Michael Brantley second when he was healthy anyway. So I would guess Kyle Tucker is going to move down whenever Michael Brantley's healthy, which is frustrating and annoying and we can gnash our teeth and whinge about it all we want. But Dusty Baker is going to do what he does. And they might just win a world series. Yeah, pretty successful man. Yeah. To answer the question too, I don't know that there's anything Kyle Tucker can do while Michael

Brantley is out to keep the number two spot in the lineup. It's just that's the way Dusty Baker, whenever Michael Brantley has been healthy, that's the way he's constructed the lineup. I think it's more likely Jeremy Pena struggles and loses that spot than anything else. All right. Well, let's take our first break here. And when we return, we'll get to more questions on Fantasy Baseball Today. Ever dream about buying a Fantasy Baseball Today podcast shirt and then jumping over to get a Yellowstone whiskey glass or Top Gun Maverick Hat. Well now you can with a brand new Paramount Shop, which offers a mountain of merch from the Paramount shows

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Paramount Shop, where products are paramount. This next email is from Daniel. Hello, Rocky Colt and Tumtum. Those are the titular Three Ninjas. Correct. A movie I've actually seen. I used to really enjoy the one with Hulk Hogan back in the day. Love the show, but I want to challenge Scott's scarcity analysis a little bit,

particularly in Roto formats. I don't think supply and demand applies as strictly, as Scott's 2023 analysis suggests, given the way Roto scoring and lineups work. This is not a dig at Scott. He's among the best in the business, obviously, but I want to hear his response to these counterpoints. For example, Scott has been saying all offseason

that he is expecting a democratization of stolen bases due to the new rules which are causing him to put less emphasis on drafting steals. But if there are more steals in the league, doesn't that mean you will need more to win or compete in the category? And if there are fewer home runs, you need fewer home runs to win. Scott, that's your first question. Yeah, so I think I have addressed this before. Not sure if Daniel happened to catch that show.

But basically, the idea behind a democratization of stolen bases is that they will be more widespread. They won't be restricted to a few select players. So yes, stolen bases as a whole will go up, but they'll go up more in the mid to low range of base dealers than they were at the high range of base dealers. Because there comes a point. You're only on base so many times. And if you're running so much already, there's not as much room to improve in that regard. So that's part of the thinking there. and in my experience

drafting, putting together Roto teams this year, I find that a lot of the hitters I prefer to take in those middle to late rounds are likely to give me stolen bases. Who are the guys I've been talking up? Like Ezekiel Tovar,

Garrett Mitchell, Jake Fraley, Nico Horner? Anthony Volpe. Sure, I have a few shares of Nico Horner. You get to a few shares of Nico Horner. You get to a point when you're looking for power deeper into drafts. I mean, the last guy who hit 30 home runs last year. Scott Frozen?

It's drafts. Oh, he did freeze. Scott, can you repeat that? Yeah, you were frozen for a second. Last thing we heard was the last guy who hit 30 homers last year. Sorry. And we thought you took a very meaningful pregnant pause. Of all the players who hit 30 plus home runs last year,

the last to be drafted on average is Rowdy Tellez. And that's like in the middle of drafts. Right. So there isn't, there aren't a lot of surefire power sources late. And the guys who you can, you know, maybe see hitting 30 home runs, they have some serious warts. I'm thinking like Adam Duvall. I'm thinking like Jorge Saler, that group. So I feel much better about the late round targets for steals.

That's kind of an aside, but it helps with the idea of not stressing about stolen bases early or early in drafts. The other point you brought up here about it not being as big of an issue in roto leagues. Yeah, I think that's true, and it's something I've brought up before. The fewer, it's the position scarcity thing matters more. The shallower the league is and the fewer lineup spots you have to fill, because you have to make those lineup spots as impactful as possible. If you get in a roto league where there's 14 hitter spots, and if it's especially one of those 15-team roto leagues that the industry

people like to play in so much, you're not going to be able to fill in every lineup spot with a surefire high-end option anyway. Like there are going to be some misses somewhere on your roster. And if it happens to be at third base rather than middle-in field, is it that big of a deal? I mean, it hurts your flexibility over the course of the season, so it's still not great, but it's not as big of the deal.

All right. The next part of this question asks, Scott is pushing down starting pitchers because he thinks the middle class of SP is so large now due to the dead and ball. I was going to say drink. But wouldn't that mean everyone in your league has better ratios and more strikeouts? So you need elite starting pitchers to compete in those categories and pull away from the middle class.

The landscape is different than 15 to 20 years ago when you could wait on starting pitchers because pitching analysis is better and more widespread than it was then. That's a really good point that I, I think is really interesting to think about because part of why pitching for so long was not worth paying up for was just like we were less sure that we knew who was good and who wasn't. I think that's less of an issue now. I think it's easier to project hitting because there is still less out of a hitter's control in terms of their results. But, you know, we know the guys who can throw 180 innings at a high level, those are the guys.

guys that can keep throwing 180 innings at a high level. You know, a lot of the, you know, the like Spencer Strider, I think is a good example of a guy that we really like. We think he's a really, really good pitcher. But one, the sample size for him pitching at this level is very small. And two, we've never seen him throw 150 innings in a season. And so that is partially why my pitching strategy largely does revolve around getting two of those guys that I feel very confident can throw 180 innings at a really high level.

and then, you know, have fun getting my redetmers and Nick Ladolos and those guys rather than, you know, so at least I have that relative security to build my staff from. That is partially like, it's sort of like running back in fantasy football where like there are a handful guys and I think draft history proves this. There are a handful guys who are very, very good investments. And it's typically the guys who have shown they can get 250, 300 touches multiple times and play at a high level. Those guys are worth the investment. And then you have that RB dead zone that in fantasy football, it's like rounds three through seven typically are just like the worst investments you can make are running backs. Historically at starting pitcher, that's typically like rounds five through 11 is where the worst investments tend to be pitchers because that's where the small sample size guys, the guys who've never done it. who had a good second half, tend to get pushed up and tend to be really bad investments,

historically, whether you want to look at it as, you know, dollar investment or, you know, however, Mike Giannell has done really good research on this. Ariel Cohen also has. And I've done slightly less good research, but I think it's still useful. Those guys are much smarter than me. But historically, that has been the trend. If you take pictures in the first like three to five rounds, you're going to get a good return on investment generally. After that, fifth through 11, you don't get as much of an edge

picking in the fifth through 11 round range. You don't get enough of an edge on those types of pitchers relative to the guys who go later is the way I would put it. The difference between starting pitchers and the running back comparison you made is that it's really hard to find a quality running back off the waiver wire over the course of a fantasy football season. And now that there is such a big middle class

and starting pitcher, it's very easy to find a quality starting pitcher off the waiver wire, multiple starting with pitchers off the waiver wire over the course of the season. I went back and looked at some of my most successful teams from last year. And if you had showed me what my pitching staff ended up being in those leagues at the start of the year, I would have thought there's no way that's going to be a competitive team. But there are just so many options we don't even see coming over the course of the season. I mean, go back to the Mount Rushmore, Merrill Kelly, Martin Perez, Miles Michaelis, and Tyler Anderson. They all finished as top 40 pitchers in Roto League's top 30 pitchers in head-to-head points.

And they were basically on nobody's radar at the start of the season. And those aren't the only four examples, of course. We could go through the rankings and pick out a bunch more, Jeffrey Springs. Nessor Cortez. Yeah. I mean, even like Nicolodolo and Hunter Green, they were getting some late round looks toward the end of spring training, but certainly they weren't rostered from start to finish.

Spencer Strider and Kyle Wright were both ads last year. Yeah, I mean, we could go on for a long time naming names. And obviously, I'm not wanting to go into the season with a bad pitching staff. I don't feel like I do in any of the teams I put together, but there's a lot more ways to wriggle out. of a bad pitching staff. It's a lot easier to do than to wriggle out of a bad hitting lineup.

Lastly, this thinking applies to some of the position depth discussions as well. If eight teams have an elite shortstop or seven teams have an elite first baseman aren't the teams that don't have one at a big disadvantage even if the relative quality of the 12th shortstop is better than the 12th second basement. Most teams will have a mediocre second baseman

so you're not too disadvantaged if you don't have one of the top three. and why not double dip or triple dip at shortstop? Shortstop typically get more played appearances due to their defensive importance. I won my league last year with and decided to keep all three of Lindor, Corey Seeger, and Willie Adamas. I mean, that's part of the reason why stress taking a third baseman earlier over stressing taking a second basement earlier.

Yes, there are fewer high-end second baseman, but because there are more high-end third-based, and they're even higher in than the high-end second baseman, you're at a more extreme disadvantage if you don't get one of them. So it's a situation where you give yourself a clear advantage. Taking, I mean, Jose Atouvae's gone now, so I don't even know how well the example works. But let's say Marcus Simi.

You give yourself a clear advantage over every opponent by taking Marcus Simi in its second base, but you put yourself at a clear disadvantage if you don't get one of those six elite third baseman. apologies for Daniel just taking over the podcast, but I thought it was really interesting discussion and conversation points. Let's move into our Apple podcast review questions.

This one's from Cups 1234. Any guys going especially late in Yahoo Leagues, specifically that I could target in my draft. And I probably should have done this earlier. We usually do like a podcast where you point out like Yahoo, ESPN, differences in rankings and all that fun stuff. I mean, ESPN is just the way. Wild Wild West.

I think they have a very specific scoring system. I think they lose one point for strikeout, so players who strike out are like really, really push down the board. But I did it for both. I'll start with Yahoo. Kodi Senga. These are all players that are at least 20 picks below ADP.

And Kodai Senga is at 195. Roddy Teles at 201. Love that. Nico-Hourner at 206. Love it. Jordan Walker at 224. They probably just haven't updated it, I would imagine.

Merrill Kelly at 244. Jack Flaherty at 266, Tristan Kossis at 279, and Anthony Volpe down at 310. So those are some late round names in Yahoo. ESPN, Ronald Acuna is at 18. Julio Rodriguez is at 21. Bobachette is at 34. It has to be something where maybe steals don't matter as much, you know, strikeouts, hurt you more.

I think a lot of people probably play in that kind of specific points league format on ESPN. And then later on, Andres Jimenez at 144. Byron Bucson at 151, Tim Anderson at 155, Jeremy Pena 163, John Carlos Staten at 167. You know that Chris didn't make these rankings. Tyler O'Neill at 173,

Jake McCarthy at 191, and Grayson Rodriguez all the way down at 244. Anything you guys want to highlight in particular? It's hard, so it's hard to have an answer to this one just because, like you said, the different scoring formats. And I just,

I'm planning on writing this. type of piece, but I haven't done it yet. So I don't have any specific answers yet. I'm sorry. You run out of time, Chris. Doing it tomorrow. If anyone wants to know, I mean, if you just search fantasy baseball ADP on Google, the first link will be fantasy pros.

And you can compare and contrast ESPN, Yahoo, CBS, fan tracks, NFBC, all on one page. And so if you want to, you know, do it that way, I think you could probably find some sleepers. That's exactly how I did it. I mean, so much of it, like ADP is obviously. it's only so valuable. That's part of the issue here. How savvy are your league mates? And how,

like, are they aware of Jordan Walker? Because Jordan Walker in our mock drafts recently has gone more around pick 100 than pick 224. I don't seriously see him on May... I'm sorry, May. On March 23rd, a week from opening day, with the assumption he's going to make the opening day roster, I don't see him lasting outside of pick 200.

So that's just, that's the sort of thing. I feel like you should just ignore ADP. And, you know, other more established players that haven't had as much reason to rise up the rankings like Rowdy Telez, Niko Horner, Merrill Kelly. Like, perhaps you could use that to your advantage more studying that. But again, it all comes down to how savvy are your league mates. Because if they're the sort of people who drink up fantasy baseball content all preseason, you could probably throw site-specific ADP out the wind. and look more toward fantasy pros ADP. My last point on that is, I would say,

go into the draft room beforehand and just poke around and see which players are ranked way too low, someone that might get buried that everyone kind of misses out on and forgets in the middle of the draft. So just look around each position, and I'm sure you'll be able to find some players that are buried that way as well. This one's from Casey 022-2-5-Roto 10-Team League. Keep Forever, O'Neill Cruz or Jordan Walker.

I would say so I guess the way I would look at is this we're drafting O'Neill Cruz a lot higher than Jordan Walker and I think we would be even if Jordan Walker got his opening day job right is that would you guys agree with that I don't know that it would be a lot higher but it would I think it would still be higher like round five versus round seven maybe he'd be higher can we really say Jordan Walker has more upside than O'Neill Cruz no I don't think we can

No. So what I guess the case would be that you can like narrowly see a world where like Jordan Walker who has not proven his skill set at the major league level is nonetheless a safer long term bet than O'Neill Cruz, even though we think he's a worst bet this season and we don't think he has. Like it's it's possible that all those things could simultaneously be true. But it feels like you're really trying to thread a very thin needle. And I would just go with O'Neill Cruz. It comes down to likelihood of meeting the upside, and I do feel like Walker is just because Cruz has those exorbitant strikeout tendencies. Like that is the easiest way to undermine all the ability in the world.

And I do think there is a scenario where at this time a year ago, everybody's kind of over O'Neill Cruz. Obviously, that's not what I'm expecting to happen. But it could happen. He could go Joey Gallo, yeah. I don't think there's a wrong answer, but I'm kind of leading Jordan Walker. Oh, God. Does that mean I have to take the time? But then shouldn't Jordan Walker just be ranked higher this year? Well, no, because it's keep forever. Like, I'm hitching my wagon to this guy forever versus I'm pitching my wagon to this guy this year.

Normally, we're talking in redraft terms. Right, right. But if you would, if you think Jordan Walker has a better chance of hitting his long term ceiling, why is, because we think a short term. I'm willing to accept, what I'm saying is I'm willing to accept more volumin. volatility in the short term than in the long term. I think... I think both answers could be different, Chris. I think you could like O'Neill Cruz more for redraft. Even if we knew Jordan Walker's up on opening day,

he plays the entire season with the Cardinals. I think you can like Cruz more this year, but still like Walker long term. I think you could. I just... I have a hard time reconciling them. It's close, man. I think there's so much uncertainty either way

that I think the short term should be the most valuable thing. I think I would lean Jordan Walker. Do you want to break the tie, Frank, or not? I think I would lean Jordan Walker. I just trust the Cardinals development a little bit more. I think there's a little bit less volatility. I mean, look.

I don't know that there's a wrong. Jordan Walker could be anything. He could even be O'Neill Cruz. O'Neill Cruz is not that proven, Chris. And we know how much you want O'Neill Cruz on your fantasy seat. Come on, Chris. Chris strikes the same tone and makes the same facial expression every time he launches into that.

I knew it was kind of. It's a bit, you know. We all got, we all got our things. You know, Chandler's got his, could I be, you know, we got our things. This next one's from Polo Rito, Deer, Parzival, H, and Artemis with a three instead of an E. That's something.

Art three. For sure. I don't know what it is, but it's something. Elon Musk's kids names. Oh my gosh. It is ready player one. Is that what it is? Okay.

Yeah. It looks like it might be a song by a. band named Gunship? I have no idea. It seemed like it could have been Eli Las Lonnas kids names. You gotta admit. In a head-to-head points 12-team league the first overall pick got traded. Otani gets both scoring points in this format. Got traded for a first, second, and third rounders. So the winner of the trade gets 10th, 15th, 24th, 25th, 34th for the first three rounds. I don't know how that works out maybe. So that's the picks that he has now as a result of this trade. Gotcha.

And the commissioner who traded for first of all says we can't veto because there is not one in place. Thoughts. I mean, yeah, if you don't have a rule about vetoes in place and you shouldn't, then that's, that's the rule. You can't retroactively decide that people can't be allowed to make a trade just because you don't like it. I think it's fine. I don't see the problem. I don't know why you would want to veto it. I mean, it's daily lineups. Is that part of this? No, you just get both Otani's

hitting and pitching points. So probably I would guess like 900 points last year. Yeah. So he's far in a way the most valuable player. Aaron Judge was the number one player with 703, I think, last year. I mean, look what the Padres gave up to get

Juan Soto last year. I mean, when you're trading for talent that high end, there's kind of no limit to what you can ask for. And so I think it's reasonable. I mean, I understand being annoyed at, you know, particularly if it's a good player, particularly if it's somebody who's won a lot of championships already getting all those early draft picks.

But you gave up clearly the most valuable asset for your league setup. So I think that's, I think it's understandable. I was trying to do some quick math here on how much Otani scored last year. Almost a thousand points. It's like just on. under a thousand, I think. That's, I mean, like, yeah, if he only takes up one roster spot and you get both hitting and pitching production, you're, then there's no, there is an amount you could overpay.

Yeah. But I, I have no, like, even if this is an overpay, that's not a reason to veto it. You don't veto trades because one team got better. That's not how it should work. Yes. No, I agree totally. I am not in favor of vetoes. We usually don't have this conversation until in season.

Right, right. But vetoes should be used very, very sparingly. And if you're willing to veto a trade, you should be preparing to have a conversation about whether the people involved in the trade are in the league moving forward. That is my position on vetoes. If you're willing to say that teams should not be able to control their own decision making,

then you're saying you don't trust those people to run their teams, which why are they in your league then? Agree completely. Let's take our second break here and we'll get to more questions on the other side. Fantasy Baseball Today. Make sure to download and follow our five minute podcast. Fantasy Baseball Today and Five, wherever you listen to podcast.

This next question is from a name that featured a lot of T's and a bunch of other letters. So you probably know who you are. In a very competitive 14 team head-to-head points league, my opponents like to draft pitchers heavy as long as I have been in the league. At least half of the first round are pitchers. pitchers. Does that mean I should seek starting pitcher as heavily as Scott

seeks third base and outfield? Nope. Nope. Don't get caught up in that. They're just leaving you the more valuable. They're leaving you more of the more valuable assets and at some point they're going to have to stop drafting pitchers and draft hitters instead. So just accept the gift. If they continue to do that, I don't know how long your league has been active, but as I've said many times throughout the preseason, the juice ball era, blasted from going back to 2016. So it's a big adjustment for people to come out of it.

And some leagues are going to be slower to come around to, okay, we don't need to go as wild for starting pitcher early. Some leagues are going to be quicker to come around to that than others. And if your league is slower to come around to it, that doesn't mean you should fall in line. That means you should thank your lucky stars that you're out ahead of the trend. Chris, anything? Sigwin, others are tagging, baby.

All right, this next one's from R-Gen, RNFJ. I'm in a 10-team, 25-man roster with nine pitcher spots and a 10-inning weekly minimum. Head-to-head each category with standard 5-5. For Marmold strategy, how early should I go in on relief pitcher?

The top ones will go around the fifth round. Who and when should I target? So we've talked about the Mar-Mor-Sratory, this offseason, basically every offseason ever. I mean, I think the original iteration is you draft hitters with like your first 10 rounds and then you load up, but I don't know that that's still relevant now today. I mean, if you want to make sure you get an elite closer or two,

you probably need to jump in in like the round six, seven range. That's actually a good point. I'm not sure we've talked about this when we brought up Marmull strategy before, which I'm not in favor of and have never really been in favor of, But I think it makes even less sense now at a time when big save-getters are so scarce and their value has been driven up into the range where you really need to be drafting elite hitting to make the Marmal strategy work.

When the Marmal strategy first started, closers were pretty plentiful, and some really good ones would be available beyond round 10. And that's just not the way the player pool works anymore, the way drafts play out anymore. So that makes it, like the key to the Marmal strategy is you have to get really, really good hitting. Hitting is more predictable and you have easier ways to differentiate yourself from the competition. So in theory, it makes sense that if you load up on hitting early, you can be very confident you're going to dominate those categories. But if you're having to reach in to draft stud closers, then suddenly you're not so confident anymore.

You muted, you went from muted to mute. I muted myself because I thought I was muted. Yeah. I think that's generally the, like, the whole point, like Scott said, you need to have that big predictable edge at your hitting categories. And that's harder to do if you're not investing a ton in it. I think it's still viable. But like, you probably need to go, like, maybe go get Emmanuel Class A and then not draft another reliever for a long time.

But yeah, it's harder now than it was in 2003, 2004, when you had. twice as many 30 save guys and you had multiple 40 save guys every year. That's just not something that that happens anymore. And to make that point, 2004, 2005, 2006, 16, 19, 19, 30 saved pitchers. Last year, 10, the year before 9, the three years before that 11, you just don't get as many high-end save totals, which could kind of maybe make the Mar-Mor-Mold strategy even more effective if you do get Emmanuel Class A

because then like you've got one. I don't know that Class A is even the one I would target because if you're going to, if you are going to divert from stud hitters to draft a stud reliever, it needs to be one who can give you a lot of strikeouts, which Class A can't. Because you need to be able to have a chance

to win that pitching category. I mean, it would have been Edwin D.S. What's that? It would have been Edwin D.S. Yeah. But like I think I'd prioritize. I wouldn't take them ahead of a manual class A. But rather than being the one to take the first reliever,

I'd take Josh Hayer. Maybe like William, somebody who has a chance for 100 plus strikeouts. All right. This next question is from Nicholas. Last year was my first fantasy baseball season, and I loved it. I want to join a second league and co-managed with the buddy. Do you all know online leagues where we could join for money?

$500 to $1,000 to a thousand dollar buying. Oh, big spender here. Also, show some love to 10. team head-to-head players. Not just 12-te-team leagues. Keep up the great work. More on that in a second. So the NFBC is something we

mention often here. It's a national fantasy baseball championship. The actual link, I mean, if you just search NFBC, you'll find it on Google, but NFC. com. That'll bring you to NFBC.

I think FanTracks has a bunch of leagues for money as well, so if that's what you're looking for. I'd imagine that most of our analysis translates in 10-team leagues, they are different. So, you know, I will bring that up. Any changes that stand out to you guys in terms of 10 team leagues versus 12 teamers? I think as a general rule, the shallower the league is, the more important it is to have difference makers everywhere because you have to find a way

to differentiate yourself in a format where everybody's going to have very good players. So I think like actually having J.T. Raumuto in a 10 team lead is probably a bigger edge than it would be in another type of format because he can give you so much more of an edge. So I think that's the general way I would look at it. Yeah, like we were saying earlier, the position scarcity factor is greater. The shallower the league is. I would also say that you can take much bigger risks in a shallower league because the replacement level player on waivers is much higher end

and there's going to be really high quality players on waivers throughout the season. So you can afford to miss a little more with those big swings. I'm thinking especially with like your mid-late round picks, guys, your unions are to fill out your bench. I don't know that you need to take a huge swing early in the draft because all those guys are so good to begin with. I would also say that if you're saying 10 team head-to-head, so I presume no middle infield spot, no corner infield spot,

only three outfield spots instead of five. Certain positions, those positions we think of as deeper, are so deep that you may still be able to get a really quality, option at the very end of the draft. I'm thinking specifically shortstop, first base, and catcher. Unless you get a clear

cut stud at those positions, like J.T. Real Muto, or you know, like Corey, Cager and O'Neill Cruz, I'd put them in that category. I'd be willing to pay up for them in a shallow league or at first base and

example would be Paul Goldschmidt, maybe like Vinnie Pasquantino is the lowest that I'd consider paying up for at first base. Unless you can get that caliber of player at those positions, you can afford to wait a long, long time. There's no reason to pay up for Xander Bogart's, for instance, because Dansby Swanson might be there in one of the last four or five rounds. All right, let's wrap up with a few keeper questions.

I said like a month ago, no more keeper questions. and here we are. But it's a final weekend. You know what? You might have to make your decision. From Sebastian, 10 team 6xx, head-to-head categories with quality starts and OPS.

I plan on keeping these five. Trey Turner in the 17th round. Juan Soto in the 21st. Ronald de Cunia in the 8th. Yordon Alvarez in the 24th. Corbyn's in the 23rd. I know it's a 10-team league, but I don't really see how you could lose.

But could also keep these. O'Neil Cruz in the 26th. Spencer Strider in the 26th. Tyler Glassdown in the 26th. 26th, Christian Javier in the 23rd, Shane Bieber in the 9th, Aranola in the 7th. Scott, would you take any of those options

over the five already listed? That would be hard to do. I mean, obviously, O'Neill Cruz in round 26, Spencer Strider in round 26. Those are amazing options. Would either be worth keeping over Ronald Dekunia in round 8? I mean, that's probably the most

justifiable non-keep of those five that you've penciled in to keep but Ronald Acunae on round eight is I think given the value Sebastian already has just go with Acuna I think so too yeah yeah I mean it's a maybe you can work out a trade to deal one of those

I mean I don't know what you'd get in return draft picks or something I don't know yeah but those one of those amazing keeper values it seems seems like a shame to just let them disappear, let them evaporate. But I don't know if, I don't know if trading is an option for you. This one's from Bill in Florida. Hi, Terry, Austin, and Larry. Don't know. Don't know that one.

Chris actually had to run, so, or else I'm sure he would figure it out. I don't know. They're so like generic names. It's kind of hard to think of on the top of your head. 12 team head to head points league keep four up to three years in the same round. They were drafted. Cedric Mullins in the 21st for, I'm not going to read the years.

You can see it on the rundown. Scott. Mullins for in the 21st, Swanson in the 21st, Kyle Wright in the 21st, Dylan Seas in the 7th, Brandon Nimmo in the 21st, Corby Carroll in the 21st,

and Freddie Peralta in the 17th. Need four. Four of them. All right. Definitely going Corby Carroll in the 21st. Danzby Swanson in the 21st. I don't know if That means it becomes the 20th.

I don't know. And I guess Mullins also in the 21st, which maybe becomes the 19th. I don't know. Yeah, I think. Well, oh, I'm sorry. It's a points league. Okay, sorry.

Still Corby and Carol. All right. I should have seen that points thing earlier because now I'm going to throw everybody a curveball here. Okay, still Corbyn Carroll in round 21. But now I think I'm going to keep Dylan's season in round seven. And because

in that format, especially outfield is a scarcer position than shortstop, Mullins will be the third. So I'm leaving Dansby Swanson out of it now. Need force. You take of that. Oh, well, that makes it easier. Swanson, too. There you go.

All right. This last one's from. I feel your pain. Dear Johnny, Chosen, and Mike. So is that Cobra Kai? I mean, I haven't seen to show Cobra Cobra Cuy. but those sound like characters from the Karate Kid movie who were on the bad side. Yes, it sure is.

And I'm a big fan. I know a lot of people, I don't know, it's kind of divisive. It is what it is. Like, it's kind of cheesy, but I think it's a fun show. Wish you guys would cover more heads head points,

but you're still the best around. The best around. I see you did there. All right. Karate Kid bringing it all around. Keeper question for a 12 team weekly head to head points league can keep six, already keeping Trout in round one. Otani, the pitcher in round 12.

Austin Riley in round 24, Alec Manoa in round 23, and Gunner Henderson in round 22, trying to decide my last keeper between Vinnie Pee. Baby! Vinnie Pasquantino, round 21, or Zach Wheeler in round three. You already got two ace pitchers.

Points league's probably going to be Pasquantino's better format. I think that discount is pretty extreme round 21, and the discount for Wheeler, round three, I'm not even sure that's a discount. Yeah, I think this is one of those cases where you go with the bigger discount in Pasquantino, even if he's presumably the lesser player.

Last point here. P.S., you guys keep talking about how weak sparps are this season, but you never mentioned Christian Javier or Jeffrey Springs on Fantasy Pros and Yahoo. They're both listed as SP and RP. Well, you know what? You know what? This isn't the Yahoo Fantasy Baseball today podcast, okay? Can't speak for those Yahoo's over there with their crazy loose eligibility rules. But obviously, if they are RP eligible and you play, does Yahoo even do points leagues?

I assume you can set it up that way, but it's not what they're known for. I think their standard as head-to-ed categories. Honestly, I don't even know. I don't know if you could do head-to-head points there. If you happen to play on a points league on Yahoo.com, then yes, Christian Javier and Jeffrey Springs are some very valuable sparps. that make it so you don't have to reach so much for Spencer Strider if you're into that sort of thing, but obviously also raise the value of Javier and Springs.

And the reason why Javier and Springs don't have RP eligibility on CBS is because you need 10 relief appearances the year before. I think Springs either had eight or nine. Javier, I think, had exactly five. So if you do play in a league on CBS where it's only five relief appearances, then yes, those guys definitely should be. on your radar as Sparps, others who might have this eligibility, Ross Stripling, David Peterson, and Shintaro Fujinami.

We are going to wrap there for Scott looks confused. I don't think Fujimami would coming over from a different league. But I looked on Yahoo and he has SP and RP eligibility. Oh, okay. We're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for watching and listening fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify.

We'll be back again. next week. Bye bye.