Latest Signings! Luis Severino to the A's, Clay Holmes to the Mets & More! (12/9 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)
00:00Now here's Frank Scott and Chris.Surprise!Welcome into a bonus episode of Fantasy Baseball today.Here on Monday, December 9th.I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Chris Towers.And no, there have not been any massive signings since Juan Soto.Why are we here?Well, there have been a bunch of smaller to medium-sized signings over the last handful of days,
00:23basically dating back to Thursday.We had Luis Severino and Clay Holmes and a bunch of relieverino.all that kind of stuff. So we figured, let's do a bonus podcast, get those out of the way,so they don't take up time on our normally scheduled podcast. We have a prospect series that we'regoing to start up later tonight. So I really wanted to just be able to dedicate time to thoseprospects later on and not have to, don't, you know, cut it too short on talking about these signingsbecause I think there's some interesting stuff here. We already did emergency podcast forWillie Adomis, Tyler O'Neill, and of course, Juan Soto, make sure to check those out. About 18
00:58hours have passed since Juan Soto has signed with the Mets.And Chris, I can tell you, with 100% certainty, I don't feel any better.As a Yankee fan, I am hurting.I am in pain.I just like, I've seen Yankees fans do the like, well, nobody was going to outbid SteveCohen.And like, okay, fair enough.But like, why can't the Yankees, like, what's the point of being the Yankees if you're
01:25not the team saying nobody's going to outbid us, you know?Like that's the thing where like, I don't know, they got close, right?Like the total number was $5 million short, but it was with an extra year.So the AV was like $4 million less.And it's like, I don't know, man.I'm bummed that the Yankees are at this point where they can get outbid by the New York Mets.It shouldn't happen.Something is wrong with the natural order of things.
01:53And we're going to talk about Luis Severino.and I don't know if you remember his great quote from last seasonwhere he said you've only got two good hitters.I think that was something he texted his former Yankees teammates.And they've got one now.I mean, they've got more than one.But you know what I mean.This is a team with some glaring, glaring needs right now.
02:16And I don't know what the path forward is.Yeah, I said it last night.I will double down, reiterate that any Yankee.fans that are out there saying, oh, well, we can use all this money and sign MaxFreed and Christian Walker and trade for Cody Bellinger and sign Alex Breggman and do all thisstuff. Maybe it works out in the aggregate, but they are also not a Hall of Fame player inJuan Soto. And just like you think about like, okay, let's say they sign Max Fried and ChristianWalker and Alex Breggman, which like seems unlikely that they get all three, but let's say that.
02:54the problem with that is you're upgrading three different spots where they probably have a one and a half win player, let's say.And you're replacing them with four win players. And that's not nothing. But replacing Alex Verdugo with Juan Soto or I guess what would actually be the case is replacing Juan Soto with whatever, I mean, Jason Dominguez, I guess. That's a pretty big downgrade.And it's a lot harder to make up the gap on a Juan Soto type than it is borderline all-star types like those other guys.So that's, look, they might be fine.But now it's a lot riding on jazz chishol and drunk harlostan to stay healthy.And I have some experience with that in both regards.And it doesn't often go great.Yeah.
03:51It seems to be there is some kind of cultural, philosophical change going on in baseball now that Steve Cohen is here.And, you know, the likes of him and the Dodgers, they can make those competitive bids like, you know, the Yankees used to be able to do where nobody else would be able to touch those bids.But guess what?Now there are other teams that are willing to spend on these massive contracts.Like, you know, the Yankees would have once did when they kind of stood by themselves in that regard.So I will learn more details.It came out there as a signing.bonus for the Yankees as well. And we don't know everything that happened behind the scenes.
04:25And maybe Steve Cohen would have just not stopped. He would have just kept going forever and ever and ever.And he would have just got Wants Soto no matter what. But that will never know.What we do know is he's with the Mets. Chris, do you have any actual fantasy takes before we move on to the other stuff regarding Sotom?It's a park downgrade for Soto, but not as big a one as you would think. It's Yankees Stadium.We talked a lot about it all last season, really. Yanky Stadium is a great park for.for left-handed power specifically.The problem is it really dilutes all other offense.And so Yankee Stadium ends up being a fairly average home park.
05:03And Cityfield is a slightly worse home park for left-handed hitters overall.It's a much worse home park for power.So Juan Soto probably not going to come close to that 41 homers.I would project something more like 35 in 2024 or 2025.but, you know, he underperformed his XBA by 30 points, 28 points last year.Wouldn't be surprised if, you know, maybe he hits more like 300 in 2025 to make up for it.I think the biggest winner of this, though, is Mark Vientos, who I have a lot of concerns about how real what he did last season is.I have a lot of concerns about the hit tool for Mark Viantos.
05:46But if what he did last season is at all real, you might be looking.at the NL RBI leader, batting behind Francisco Lindoran Wonsoto.Like that could be an awesome, awesome situation for him if he's, you know, for real.So I'm, I think Arrow definitely pointing up for him.And I do think Arrow pointing up for Jason Dominguez just because they have to play him, right?Yeah.I mean, there's no way.I would think he's going to be the more or less everyday center fielder.
06:18I have a lot of questions about Jason Dominguez and the hit tool there as well.And the defense.Yeah.But, you know, like he had been going a little bit ahead of Dylan Cruz in the early drafts.I think Cruz has pulled ahead of him in recent ADP.I would guess Dominguez is now going to catch up.I'd rather have Cruz.I think it's a much safer profile with a similar ceiling.
06:46but there's big, big upside in like a 12th round pick on Jason Dominguez.So that'll definitely be one to keep an eye on.All right.Let's move on to the rest of the news that we came here for today.And pretty surprising news that came out last Thursday.The Athletics of Sacramento has signed Luis Severino to a three-year $67 million deal.And that includes an opt-out after the second year.This is the largest guaranteed contract.
07:16athletics history.As for Severito, he stayed healthy with theMets this past season.Mostly useful in kind of a streamersense, a 391 ERA, a124 whip, under a strikeoutpreening. He threw his sinker more, he got moreground balls. He was fine.
07:33But thenthat changed completely in the second half.All right, talk to me. He wentaway from the sinker in thesecond half, leaned more on thefour seamer,anddidn't really,
07:46become a more effective pitcher, but did get more strikeouts in the second half.It was 80 strikeouts in 72 and a third innings in the second half of the season, 81 in 109 andtwo-thirds innings before.So I think it all comes out in the wash, and he's probably just a guy.You know, he's probably just an average strikeout pitcher, an average ratios guy.And, you know, we have some concerns about how Sacramento is going to play, certainly lesspitcher-friendly than Oakland did.I would guess probably less picture-friendly than New York was last year as well.
08:22So, you know, I think there are reasons to be concerned about Luis Severino being an especiallyuseful fantasy option.But there are a handful of guys, you know, Alex Cobb signed today, that there are a handfulof guys that where I do think how you view them for fantasy might mostly come down to whatthe early season schedule looks like.And so, you know, if Louis Severino has two good starts to open up the season,okay, draft Louis Severino with one of your final picks.That's probably fine.
08:54You can drop him if it doesn't go well.But I don't think there's a ton of upside there.Yes, I would agree with that.Unless he magically gets back to the player he was three, four years ago,but I just don't really see any reason why we should believe that.You mentioned he's moving over to a worst ballpark we think.He's going to be playing in Sutter Health Park in Sacramento.that's a minor league park in the PCL.
09:18I think that kind of PCL aspect of it kind of,that's the one that kind of adds an extra wrinkle of,this could be kind of hitter friendly here.So the thing that's tough about it is it's the probably one of the two or threemost pitcher-friendly parks in the PCL.But that's because like half the PCL is basically course field.Yeah.You know, like I think Reno, Las Vegas,
09:43Albuquerque, Colorado Springs, if they still play there.Like all of these PCL parks for the most part are at elevation, are small, are, you know.So Sacramento, much less foul territory than Oakland.So if you're comparing Oakland to Sacramento, that's the biggest difference, right?The dimensions are actually pretty similar.But O. Dot Co had, I think by far the most foul territory in the majors.And Sacramento has very little, especially down the line.So that will, I think there were.
10:16I actually did look this upand the A's led the majors inthere were morefoul outsin Oakland than any other parkand it was like one per game and I thinkthe lowest was like half of oneper game. So it's probably not a huge
10:32difference on the whole but it'll matterand then it'sa much warmer environmentI think I was readingit was like 12 to 13 degreesthe mean temperatureis 12 to 13 degrees higher inSacramento during the summer than Oakland slash San Francisco.
10:49So that'll matter as well.So I think it will play.I'm more worried about George Steinbrenner Field and where the Tamp, the Rays are going to play.I think that'll probably be a more pitcher-friendly or hitter-friendly environment.But I would guess Sacramento neutral to hitter-friendly would be my guess.So not great for Luis Severino.The early NFBC ADP for Severino is 293.Obviously, a lot of those drafts taking place before he signed.
11:16with the athletics, just ahead of names like Merrill Kelly, Eric Fetty, Mitch Keller,Kumar Rocker, Brian Bejo. For the most part, Chris, that group also sounds like a bunch ofstreamers. I think there's a little bit more upside with someone like Kumar Rocker. Yeah,for sure. Does it make sense for Severino to be drafted ahead of those names? Should he gobehind them? I could see him being behind all of them, but like, you know, what, what has BrianBayo given us to presume upside at this point.You know, a handful of good starts per year, but nothing consistent throughout his career.So Severino may be more likely to be useful than Bayo, but less likely to have, you know,
12:00another step forward, I guess, even though I don't think that's particularly likely for Bayo.All right, Juan Soto wasn't the only one who the Mets poached away from the Yankees.Clay Holmes is headed to the Mets on a three-year 38 million.dollar deal and they plan to use him as a starting pitcher well good riddance to you clayholmes i have expressed my frustration with him as the yankees closer over the years with all that saidhe still is a useful pitcher he gets lots of ground balls stuff he was a very good reliever like i getthat he blew a lot of saves last year but like clay holmes was a very good reliever for the yanke i don'tknow if it was just circumstantial or what happened just bad defense behind him it just felt like
12:42He always let them down in a big spot.But nonetheless, he was very good as a reliever with the Yankees Clay Holmes.The past three years, a 285 ERA, a 117 whip, 9.7K per 9, a 69% ground ball rate.He was originally a starter in the miners in the Pirates organization.Obviously, you know, got called up, transitioned into a reliever and was much better after that.Stuff plus metrics are off the charts for Clay Holmes.but Chris, do you thinkdoes he have enough of an arsenal
13:14here to be useful as a starterA and B, how much will the velocity drop?I guess we can't really answer this question, butthere's going to be a velocity drop.Will it be too much to the pointwhere, you know, it doesn't renderhim as useful as a startingpitcher? What do you think? The thing
13:32to keep in mind here isI thought Reinaldo Lopez moving back to the rotation was going to be adisaster.and clearly I was wrong.So I can't say I have a great sense of what to expect here.But, you know, when you look at Holmes and his arsenal especially,it's been sinker slider sweeper.That's basically been all he's thrown over the past three seasons.
13:57Before that, it was basically sinker slider curveball.So a very limited arsenal, one that dominates right handers.but I think given what he looked like last year,given, you know, 97 mile an hour sinker,really good slider and sweepers,that sounds like a guy who,when he moves to the rotation,is probably going to be throwing 94, 95,
14:23and the slider and sweeper will probably lose some effectiveness.That sounds like a profile that's really going to struggleto get left-handed hitters out.And that's not to say that that will be,definitely be what his approach is. The Mets are a very smart pitching organization that I thinkhas earned the benefit of the doubt. When it comes to maximizing the guys that they signed,we saw it with Sean Minai, we saw it Louis Severino last season. They will make tweaks based onnot just results, but pitch characteristics that I think will help get the most out of Clay Holmes.
15:00And they've earned the benefit of the doubt to a certain extent, so I don't want to write himoff entirely.And I will also point out,Reynaldo Lopez was significantly worseagainst lefties than Ritees last season.He had a 526 OPS allowed versus Riteesand an 8.8 strikeout to walk ratio against Ritees.Against lefties, it was a 691 OPS,
15:22a 2.26 strikeout to walk ratio.So they kind of have similar approaches, very fastball heavy,two breaking balls, not really much of an off-speed pitchto speak of Lopez threw it about 3% of the time.Holmes didn't throw one at all last year,but he has in the past.I would expect we're going to see more four seamersand more changeups from Holmes
15:45to try to get lefties out.And maybe it just won't matter.The Mets, again, have earned the benefit of the doubt on this.And I think certainly in a head-to-head points league,Clay Holmes needs to be on your late-round radar.I would think in a 12-team Roto League,he needs to really show something in spring trainingto get to that point, but maybe he will.
16:03But right now, more of just a spark for now.Yeah, looking at these splits for Clay Holmes' career against lefties,he has a 314 Wobah and against righties 267.So a pretty sizable gap there.You point out of-Remember, it's a lot easier to avoid tough leftieswhen you're pitching out of the bullpen.Yeah, 100%.
16:22You hit on, you know, with a velocity,I think he probably checks in around 94-95.That's probably where they need him to be.I think to really still have that effectiveness.this. If you're wondering aboutinnings, Clayhomes has not thrown more than70 since 2018.The early steamer projections have him for
16:39135. I thinkthat's probably doable. Maybe it's a littlebit optimistic. Theearly ADP, rather there have beentwo drafts since Clayhomes signed with the Mets.Two drafts over the weekend, over at theNFBC, and the ADP there was308.5.
16:55So, just after Jackson Joband Kumar Rocker, some young upsidenames, just before Eric Fettyand Reese Olson.Does that sound like a fair range for Clay Holmesjust outside the top 300?I think that's reasonable enough.The one thing I will say is
17:10specifically for this landing spot,the one downside is there aren't a lot of contingent pathsto fantasy value if the starting thing doesn't work out, right?Like you could imagine Clayholm signing somewheretrying to be a starter.It doesn't work.They transitioned him back to the bullpenand he ends up back in a ninth inning roll.
17:34He would need one to fail as a starter,two to then rediscover himself in the bullpen,and then three to have an Edwin-Diaz injury,to have any fantasy value in that instance.So that's the one thing that this does,the signing with the Mets forecloses a potential pathto contingent upside if the starting thing doesn't work out.And I agree with you.
17:57I just kind of blindly trust the Mets.I know that they've only done this for one year.They've only had this regime with David Stearns for, you know,one plus years at this point.But I really like what they just did.I mean, they made, they got Severino back on track.He was able to stay healthy.He was serviceable.
18:14Obviously, he wasn't amazing.But Sean Mania had a, you know, big breakout season, re-breakout, whatever you want to call it.So I kind of trust that the, uh, the Mets are going to be able to get something out of Clay Holmes.And with that, I guess probably something out of Frankie Montas.Yeah.I want to mention Montas just I'm a little more optimistic about the chances of Montas figuring it out.You know, he had the nice late season run with the Brewers where the strike out rate went back up.I think the bigger thing there is I, it's easier for me to see the concrete path to Frankie Montas figuring it out with the Mets.
18:48And that's an arm slot adjustment that gets the splitter back to being a wipeout pitch like it was at his best.You'll have to raise his arm slot.That's easier said than done perhaps.that's a more concrete thing that I can look to than,I don't know, maybe Clayholm starts starting a change up.You know, like that, that's very speculative.All right, let's take a quick break.Chris, you can go take care of your cat, see what's going on there.
19:13She wants to be let out.And as soon as I let her out, she's going to want right back in.There you go.But when we return, we'll talk about Shane Bieber headed back to the Guardians.We have some bullpen news, some Dodgers stuff.We'll do that right after this.Welcome back in, a bonus edition of Fantasy Baseball today.We're just catching everyone up on the latest moves over the past handful of days,
19:32not named Juan Soto and Willie Adamas and Tyler O'Neill, all that stuff.The Guardians are bringing back Shane Bieber on a one-year $14 million dealthat includes a $16 million player option for 2026.He had Tommy John surgery in April, not expected back until the summer of 2025,probably around the All-Star Breakout, I would imagine.So maybe someone who can contribute in the second half.and Chris Bieber has had a great career.You know, he's had some inconsistencies along the way,
20:02but overall the body of work is very strong.Took a big step back in 2023,visited drive line in the offseason last year,showed up to 2024,and looked like he was going to just be awesome again,but then suffered that injury.What are your thoughts here?Is Shane Bieber somebody worth drafting and stashing in an aisle spot?
20:22Maybe someone you draft late in like a keeper or Dynasty Leagueand with the hopes of keeping him for, you know, 2026 and beyond, I guess.It's entirely, totally to say, isn't it?Like, if it's July when he's going to come back, then no.Like, if you're in an unlimited IL spot league, maybe.But if you only have two aisle spots, three aisle spots, just, it's always easy ondraft day to say, yeah, I'll stash Shane Bieber for a couple of months.And then injuries inevitably happen.
20:53and you've got five guys hurt in the first month and the half of the season.Because remember, April is the time of year where the most injuries happen.So you have to account for that.And so I just, I think it would have to be either we find out in February that, hey, no, he's actually going to be ready by May.In which case, yeah, okay, stash him.Or you have to be in an unlimited I-L situation.I did want to quickly look up when Robbie Ray made his first start,this past season because he had Tommy John surgery in April of 2023,
21:30and he made his first start back this season.I'm honestly July, like late July.July 24th.So right after the All-Star break.And again, that's probably what I would expect for Shane Bieber.So maybe you get like 10 to 12 starts out of him over the final two and a half months of the season.But, you know, will he be the same pitcher?What's the velocity like?
21:49You know, how much does he throw his breaking pitches?There are questions to be answered.there, but maybe he's someone we're looking atpicking up in season or againif you have unlimited IL spots, it obviouslydoesn't hurt to draft and stash somebodylike that. The Philliessigned Jordan Romano to a
22:05one year deal, I believe it's just over$8 million per year andnon-tendered by the Blue Jays last month.He went on the IL twice lastseason with right elbow inflammation. He eventuallygot arthroscopic surgery inlate July. He is expected to be readyfor spring training.
22:21Obviously has the experience here, Chris.to back 36 save seasons for Jordan Romano.But how does he look coming back from the injury?Where's the velocity at?The Phillies bullpen, and maybe they make another move,but right now it kind of feels wide open.They have Romano, they match Strom,Orion Kirkering, and Jose Alvarado.
22:41So what do you think about the Phillies bullpen right now on December 9th?It depends entirely on what Jordan Romano looks like.I think if he looks like himself coming back from this injury,I think he's the closer.I think they probably signed him hoping he can be the closer.And for all the mixing and matching that they've done over the past few years,this is a team that went out and got Carlos Estevez.And we kind of laughed about it,
23:06but he more or less was the closer after signing there.So I do think you can't stay with any certainty on Ramonar right now.But if we get closer to the season and he looks healthy,he comes out in spring training with velocities there,I think you have to view him as the favorite for saves.The problem is, I think it's like he gets 30 saves and looks great,or he's just a complete disaster and doesn't matter for fantasy.And it's hard to see something in between.
23:35I guess he looks great early and gets hurt is also on the table.But right now, knowing nothing about how his recovery is going,I have to say he's the favorite for saves.They went out and got him early, but if he looks bad in spring training, then I think all bets are off.So I'll say he's the favorite for saves right now.But I would probably, if I were betting on it, I would take the field over Jordan Romano for Phillies saves.I also think there is a chance that he does look good and the Phillies just continue to mix and match just because that's what they've done under Rob Thompson, right?They mostly went to Carlos Estevez after they traded for him last season.
24:16But it wasn't 100% consistent.Yeah, there were still some Jeff Hoffmanmixed in there and some lefty-rightymatchups, you know, match strong, picking up somesaves towards the end of the season.So, yeah, they could mix and match.You know, as of now, the way things stand,I think I think I agree that I would probably,
24:32but I'd probably bet on if you just had to chooseone name to lead this team in saves,I don't think it's going to be like 30,but can it be, you know, 20-ish?I would probably say Romano, but.It was mostly Craig Kimball.in 2023, if I'm remembering correctly.I think he kind of lost the job, but it was,
24:52let me look at some months by,it was like three to six,say,no,what am I looking at the wrong thing?Yeah,it was a handful of saves every month.So yeah,
25:03I don't know.He got 23 of their 37 saves in 2020,I think.No,23 of 45.Oh,Jose Ovarado had 10.Okay.
25:14I'm telling you, man,they,They like to mix it up.They like to mix it up.Yeah, that could be a headache.I would say if Romano's good, I think it's probably him.But I guess there's enough uncertainty in both directions there that you can't say it either way.Yeah.
25:32And also wouldn't surprise me if maybe they go out and still maybe not sign an elite reliever.But maybe they bring in, you know, some another talented guy or experienced name in there as well.But as of now, the top options for saves with the Phillies, Romano, O'Rollinger.Kirkering, Matt Strom, and Jose Alvarado with, we both think Romano at the top there.Blake Trinen is staying with the Dodgers on a two-year $22 million deal.And Trinan coming off an awesome season, 193 ERA, 0.94 whip, nearly 11 strikeouts per nine.And then he worked as their highest leverage reliever during their World Series run.He picked up three saves in the postseason.
26:07He was incredibly valuable in the World Series as well.The Dodgers still have some other names there, Michael Kopeck, Evan Phillips.who is recovering from an arm injury that he suffered,but sounds like he should be good to go for spring training.Another team that likes to mix and match here, Chris,how do you see the Dodgers kind of divvying up their saves in 2025?Yeah, this one feels completely wide open,more so than the Phillies,
26:33where I feel pretty confident saying a favorite right now,even if I don't have a lot of confidence in that favorite.The Dodgers, I have no idea, right?Like Evan Phillips has been the guy at times, but he's also had his troubles with consistency.He's had trouble with injuries over the past year or two.So I could see it being Copeck.I could see it being Phillips.I think Trinin, despite the way the postseason went, I would guess he's third, just because he only got one save last year.
27:06The other two guys had more.So that would be my guess on the situation.But look, I'm not a.100% convinced Michael Copac is just an elite closer now.So, like, I know he had a good couple of months after getting the Dodgers,but we're talking about 24 innings.And he wasn't great in the postseason.I could see, you know, Phillips, if he's healthy,
27:28I could see him running away with it.But that seems like a big question mark.So I think Trinan's in the discussion,but I would personally probably guess he's third right now.Maybe I'm putting too much stock on just this postseason run,but Trinan was so.good for them and so reliable and again he was a big contributor to them winning the world series andmaybe that won't matter maybe there's not really an emotional attachment to him and maybe if he's their
27:55best reliever they just kind of use him in the biggest spot in the game maybe that's not the ninthinning we've seen that with many bullpens and managers before in you know previous years heremichael copac by the way i did want to mention his regular season with the dodgers those 24innings. 113.0.79 whip wasquickly mentioned the postseason numbers.Yeah, it's like six walks and fiveinnings, I think. That was the problem.
28:19Yeah, so the control took a big step backthere in the postseason. The earlyNFBC ADP,9 December drafts, so the morerecent drafts, Copac going at167, I justI was floored to see that he wasgoing that early. Evan Phillips
28:34at 294 and Blake Trinen at 406.So I think we're going tosee a bit of a, just kind of convergence.All three of those prices kind of merge.Right around 2.30. Like, yeah,Kopec, I think takes a step back. I think he'll be outside the top200. I think maybe Trininin' Clines inside the top 300.And all of this can go away if the Dodgers make another move, which, by the way,
28:59according to the athletic, they're still interested in Tanner Scott and orDevin Williams. So this might not be settled yet, but as of now,I'm actually a little bit more partial to Blake Trinanin, but I don't know that anyone means for sure.I think at cost, I would much rather have him than Kopeck.The reaction to Kopeck was weird when he got to the Dodgers.Like, I get it that nobody watched White Sox games.And that makes perfect sense.And I'm never going to hold that against anyone, not watching White Sox games.
29:26But like, he was kind of the same guy.And it was like, oh, the Dodgers did it again.They turned another guy.And it's like, no, man.He threw 100 miles an hour when he was with the White Sox too.He just didn't get a lot of opportunities and his control was bad.Yeah.As the playoffs came, we saw Michael Copac's control turned around.
29:46So I turned back around to being bad.So I think people got a little too over-excited about Michael Coppec.I think he's a good arm.I think there's a lot of volatility there still.All right.Let's stick with the Dodgers.They also signed Michael Conforto to a one-year-17 million-dollar deal.and Conforto will be 32 years old in March.
30:07He's coming off a solid season with the Giantswhere he hit 237, 20 home runs, a 759 OPS.Chris, I kind of like this move for the Dodgers.I think it's a sneaky one.He underperformed his expected stats.The barrel rate still graded out very well, 80th percentile.He had really strong numbers on the road,and now he's joining maybe the best lineup in all of baseball.
30:30It might just be as a strong side platoon,but the early ADP for Conforto is 485,as the 83rd outfielder off the board,I have to think that climbs up closer to like the top 300as probably a top 60 or top 65 outfield or something like that for Conforto.Yeah, I think he's going to be especially valuable in a 15 team leaguewhere a part-time player is much more viable.And I think we're going to see very good numbers from Michael Conforto.
30:59And he's one of those guys who like last year,I think he was actually a little better against lefties than rightiesbut for his career, that has not been the case.So I would think, you know, it reverts more.It's like a 730 OPS against lefties, which is playable, but not ideal.And so it wouldn't surprise me if he's a platoon guy,but a platoon guy in the Dodgers outfield in a good park,you know, a significant park upgrade going from San Francisco to Los Angeles.
31:29I could see a 25-home-or 80 RBI.season for Michael Conforto as a part-time player where when he's in the lineup, he's really good.And it's possible he's good enough to play every day.And, you know, this is one thing we were talking before the show that like the reason you getMuky Betts, Freddie Freeman and Shohei Otani is like the rest of the lineup doesn't reallymatter all that much and you can have a lot of holes.Dodgers kind of have a lot of holes right now, though.Like not sure what the plan is is a shortstop.
32:02not sure what the plan is in two of the three outfield positions.So, you know, we're assuming they re-signed to Oscar Hernandez,but there's a world in which Michael Conforto is batting forth every day for the Dodgersand has a really good season.So I think at least should be drafted in any five outfielder league.I think 60-ish overall in the rankings at outfield makes sense.Yeah, I think that can play.Yeah.
32:30So I mentioned the ADP,right now was like 485 overall.I think he probably moves up around the top 300 area.Other names around there, Jordan Walker and Matt Walner.In my mind, that just kind of made sense.It's like, yeah, I could see Conforto kind of beingin a similar talent level as those guys.Obviously with a much better team with the Dodgers.
32:52You mentioned the park upgrade.I just wanted to point out really how great this is.Dodger Stadium's sixth best home run park factorfor left-handed hitters.San Francisco is 28th.So that is just a massive park upgrade.And last season, the numbers on the road for Conforto 253 with 17 of his 20 home runs in 852 OPS, 133 WRC plus for Conforto.So a sneaky late round option for those five outfielder leagues.
33:22The raise signed Danny Jansen to a one-year $8.5 million deal on Friday.And he apparently turned down multi-year deals from other teams, preferring to,bet on himself and get back on the market next offseason.But this year he hit 206, 9 home runs, 655 OPS.Clearly had been much more useful previous three seasons prior to this one.Quality of Contact took a big step back.But Chris, this is an everyday catcher who's probably going to bat in the middle of theRay's lineup.
33:53Not that, you know, it's a great lineup.What are your thoughts here?Can you see him being a viable late second catcher in two catcher leagues?A viable late second catcher is exactly what I could see Danny Jansen being.I have a hard time seeing him being anything more than that.He has very good plate discipline.That's the one thing that has remained true throughout Danny Jansons' career.The problem is the quality of contact has just completely fallen apart the last couple of seasons.
34:23He went from a 408 ex-Wobon contact in 2022 to 350 in 23, 291.in 2024.League average is 368, by the way.So a 291 X-Won contact is one of the worst marks you're going to seefor a player who gets consistent playing time.And, you know, we're tying a guy who's getting close to 30.I don't know.Maybe the rays unlock something and it's fine.
34:54But I'm pretty pessimistic that Danny Jansen is going to be anything morethan a low-end number two catcher.Yeah, almost guaranteed to have a bad batting average.Despite a low strikeout rate, he makes a lot of contact.He hits a lot of fly balls.He hits a lot of infield fly balls.So that just kind of bakes in a really low bab-ip.And as a result, it's going to be a low batting average for Danny Jansen.
35:16But the steamer projections, 225 with 14 home runs, that's not exciting.But as a second catcher, that's probably doable.That's passable there.So the NFBC ADP is 545 for Danny Jansen.it's around catcher 33.My guess is he moves up into that 350-ish rangearound guys like Patrick Bailey, Hunter Goodman, Dalton rushing.One thing I will point out is he's actually a player
35:47who is potentially hurt by the Ray's ballpark change.Because whatever you want to say about both Tropicana Fieldand Yankee Stadium, and remember,George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa is basically Yankee Stadium in Tampa, identical dimensions.Yaggy Stadium is both deeper down the left field line and deeper all the way across left field than Tropicana is.And obviously, we know the third baseman that they traded to the Cubs whose name I am forgetting.Isok Paredes.Esok Paredes.
36:27Really benefited from that short porch in left field.this is actually one guy who I think loses something with the move to,you know,we'll say Yankee Stadium two and a half for the raise next year.So I would probably be actually a little more optimistic about Danny Janssenif they were at Tropicana.But, you know, you mentioned I think I'd prefer Patrick Bailey.Dalton rushing, I'm not sure where he's going to play for the Dodgers.
36:57He's an option in the corner outfields.But if they resigned to Oscar, all of a sudden that goes away.Hunter Goodman doesn't look like he's going to play all that much.I actually like Patrick Bailey.Yeah.He had really good underlying skills last year.So I'm somewhat optimistic about him.I think that's, yeah, 300.
37:16You want to wait until your final pick and take a catcher.Danny Jansen should be there.Yeah, back end of the top 24, it feels like I would take Patrick Bailey.I agree with you.I would take Alejandro Kirk.The pirate situation, I don't really know what to make of right now.They have...Joey Bart looked really good last year.
37:34Bart looked good, but Andy Rodriguez is coming back from injury.They still have former first overall pick, Henry Davis.So he's kind of lurking around.I don't really know what to make of the pirate situation,but yeah, I would take Kirk, I would take Patrick Bailey.You get into those other names.Like, I think I would take Jansen over both of the Rangers guys.Yeah.
37:53Just because he's going to play more.So I would probably still roll the dice on Bo Nailerahead of Danny Jansen, but that, you know,I don't know how much that actually matters.I would take Yvonne Herrera ahead of Danny Jans.I would take Yvonne Herrera, yeah.Right now looking at it, I think 23rd.Yeah.
38:12For Jonah Haim makes sense.And he's right behind.You mean for Danny Jansen?For Danny Jansen, yeah.I think right now it's Bonaylor, Yvon Herrera,Patrick Bailey, Joey Bart, then Danny Jansson at 23.So if he goes undrafted, that's perfectly fine.There are a couple of other guys.
38:29Augustine Ramirez, if it looks like he's going to be on the market,Orleans opening day roster. I'd rather have him than Danny Jansen. Adrian Del Castillo,if it looks like he's going to play pretty regularly for the Diamondbacks, I would rather havehim than Danny Jansen as well. So there's some moving parts there, but again, you should notdraft Danny Jansen before your final pick in a two-catcher league. Yeah, one other name all throughouttheir prospect with the White Sox, Edgar Caro, who if he gets a chance to play on opening day or evenclose to that, I think I'd rathertake a shot on him as well. Keep an
39:04eye out. There are twodecentish prospects at the catcher positionwith the same last name.There's also Jefferson Caro for theBrewers, whoalso might be a part of theiropening day plans. Yes.
39:21And I think they're both inScott's top 15 or20 catcher prospects, if I'm,which we'll talk about ontomorrow's episode of fantasy baseball today.Look at this guy. Professional broadcaster.Last move of the day, we have the Tigers who signed Alex Cobb to a one-year deal,and he was limited to 45 total innings this past season between the minor league rehabs,
39:42starts, the majors, and the postseason.He dealt with various injuries.He was recovering from left hip surgery.Then he had a fractured fingernail, a blister on his right finger,and he ended the season on the aisle with a lower back strain.Wasn't there a shoulder injury also in there?Honestly, Chris, they were not.There was so much there might have been.
40:02I don't know exactly.The last full season we saw from Alex Cobb was 2023.He was solid in that Louis Severino kind of way, 387 ERA 132 whip.Lots of ground balls.Doesn't get a ton of strikeouts.But he's going to a good team.It's a good ballpark to pitching.Tigers have done some good work with their pitchers.
40:22Obviously, they got Jack Flaherty back on track.I don't think Cobb obviously has that talent level.He's like a decade older than Jack Flaherty, too.But, you know, in a Louis Severino kind of way, like maybe Cobb could get his career back on track.Yeah, no, the Tigers have earned a lot of praise over the past few years for the work that Chris Fedder has done with their pitchers.There's another guy who, like, works as kind of a co-pitching coach as well with them.And he's like a kinesathologist or I don't know what the actual smart guy word.But it's about the way your body moves and strength.
41:00and all that stuff.And there's been a lot of talk about what that has done for the pitchers there.We've seen velocity jumps from Terrick Scouble, Casey Meis, Jack Flaherty in recent years in Detroit.It's another one like Luis Severino where my interest level in Cobb in drafts will probablyjust depend on what does the schedule look like in late March, early April, and does he havetwo good matchups to start the season?If he does, I could see Alex Cobb being working.drafting if it's like yeah he plays the Dodgers and red socks in his first two starts it's like
41:37yeah we don't need to worry about Alex Cobb I'm pulling those completely out of thin air but likethat that's the kind of thing where I think he's a complete fringe option for draftsprobably just a streamer but if the matchups look streamable early on he could be worth draftingwould you take him ahead of like Severino or Frankie Montas I II don't really feel like having an opinion on that, frankly.No, really.Like, I genuinely think it might just be whatever the schedule looks like for all threemight be who I prefer.
42:16I think I would prefer Montas among that trio.I think so too.I think there's a little more projectable long-term upside,but that is not, I think, saying a ton.All right, well, there you go.Little bonus FBT here in the middle of the day.I saw your blue sky.What do you call those?
42:38They're not like tweets, or...I mean, Skeets, I think, was the term that they were using,but I don't know if that's an official one.I didn't want to say it.I left it to you, Chris.You took the low-hanging fruit on that way.You can count on me for that.All right, well, yeah, it's the middle of the day,
42:58but it's, like, pitch blackouts.dark.Yeah, in the Northeast.Anyway, who cares?We're going to wrap there for Chris.I am Frank.Thanks as always for tuning in to fantasy baseball today.Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify.
43:11And we will be back again tomorrow.Bye-bye.Paramount Podcasts.
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