Fantasy Baseball Today - Latest Signings, New Pitches & Mailbag Questions! (2/21 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: February 21, 2025

We saw the ABS challenge system in the first spring game and it worked well (3:34)! ... Justin Turner signed with the Cubs this week, Ty France to the Twins and more (7:18). ... News (16:57): Vlad Jr. will be test free agency after the season. ... Clay Holmes, Jackson Jobe and others are working on new pitches this spring (29:31). ... Mailbag (37:28): will Shohei Ohtani run less? ... You should target pitchers with strikeouts (40:07). ... Are two-starting pitchers fading in Fantasy (43:01)? ... What is our draft strategy in H2H categories leagues (48:41)? ... What are our trade principles in Fantasy (55:03)? ... We wrap up with some rapid-fire mailbag questions (1:00:48). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Happy Kokomo Friday and welcome in tough fantasy baseball today on February 21st. I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, it is a happy Kokomo mailbag Friday. News and notes from the week, new pitch alert for quite a few pitchers and your mailbag questions. You know, two weeks in a row, the Kokomo kind of me drowning it out, my voice kind of cracking in between. Like, what's going on with that? You're too excitable, Frank. And I drank some water right before.

beforehand. Like it should have been fine, but Or it's a special time in your life and you can ask your dad about that. Do we have an actual new pitch alert? Is it like a siren? Oh, I don't know. I'm sure one will go by my street

at some point while we're talking about it. So whenever that happens throughout the podcast, that is when we'll just start talking about the new pitches. We'll drop everything. Yeah. Jackson Job! There you go. All right, lots to get to Let's jump in with some news and notes from the week. And of course, in our first spring game,

already an injury. And a pretty scary moment, too. Bobby Miller hitting the head with a line drive comebacker, 106 mile per hour exit velocity off of Michael Bush's bat. Hope Bobby Miller is all right. He was able to walk off under his own power. He's in concussion protocol and, you know, hoping that he has a chance to be in the rotation at some point this season.

But perhaps this will be a little bit of a setback for him. So scary moment, but hoping all is well there with, Bobby Miller. Speaking of our first spring game, we got our first look at the ABS challenge system, the very first inning. Like, yeah, let's go. Jump right in. Let's get this thing going. I loved it. They have the technology.

Let's get it right. I mean, it could be a little bit faster, but yeah, it's the first time that they're using it. So I think it'll get better. What did you guys think? I think based on the studies they've done from using it in the minors, every challenge adds 17 seconds to the game. Yeah. On average,

it's, it's, it's, it's, It's negligible. And I think it would take away a lot of frustration. And I think it would still keep that human element of the umpire. I think it's worked well where they've tried it in different minor league venues. And Arizona Fall League, too, they've used it, right? Yeah. It's just an experiment in spring training.

They're not going to use it this year during the regular season. But it goes well. Yeah, I agree. It seems inevitable. I think it's the ideal. what I love is like the nerdiness about like all of a sudden they have to actually come up with a definition of what the strike zone is because the strike zone in the rulebook is not really as clear cut as you would think for being the fundamental aspect of the game. It's like, you know, the midpoint between X point and then it's like that's kind of like do they mean when the hitter sets up when they swing? What is it?

And so there are a couple of wrinkles that I really love. It's that and that they actually have to have the real height of the players and not their totally fake listed heights. They measured every player to input their height into the, I don't know, the database or whatever so that they could have so that it would know their strike zone properly. This is something I'm fascinated with because like the NBA combine, you can look at like the historical measurements for every. player in the NBA Combine and they list them both height without shoes and height with shoes. And I just love seeing who's trying to cheat. You know, like some guys are wearing like, I think Chris Paul's height with shoes was like two and a half inches taller than his height of shoes.

And like, buddy, those are, those are moon shoes. Yeah. No, I love that aspect of it. Let's find out who's lying about their height. The article actually said that this measurement they did of every player this spring was without spikes. Good. It actually specified that.

without spikes. So if they're wearing spikes in the game, I don't know why they wouldn't do it with spikes. Well, the spikes, you know, spikes sink down into the dirt. Not on the,

you know, but I, I can't wait for this data to see the light of day and I'm gonna, I'm gonna score, because I've never lied about my height. I am five, nine and a half.

It's fine. That's average. I don't know why people lie about the, no. Scott lies about his height. Scott lies. Scott is tall. Yeah,

no, he lied. He lied. When we met, we were almost the same height. and I'm 5-9, and he says that he's like 6-5 or whatever. I said I was 6-1. I'm sorry, I've said I was 6-2,

acknowledging that it was actually 6-1-5. I tried measuring myself at home recently. I was getting more like 6-1, not getting that extra 1. Oh, you're shrinking. I went to the doctor just last week, and they measured me there, 6-1 is what they came back with. So I'm going to concede. the half and I'm just going to say I'm 6-1 now.

That's been wearing right. Not 6-2. Scott had the moon shoes on. Yeah, apparently. I'm a proud 5-9 and a half. I don't get why people are so about how all they are. It doesn't matter. Yeah, I'm right there with you.

We had a bunch of signings this week. Let's talk about we've got to keep these moving guys. Come on, man. Justin Turner signed a one year $6 million deal with the Cubs on Tuesday. He's now 40 years old. Took a step back last season. He hit 259 with 11 home runs and a 7,000, 137 OPS across 139 games.

His quality of contact and power metrics fell off quite a bit. I think that's fair for a 40-year-old batter. The expectation is that Turner could be a short side platoon with Michael Bush and act as insurance for prospect Matt Shaw. Do either of you have interests in Turner in deeper leagues for fantasy? No. I would say in an NL-only game league, if Nico Horner looks like he's going to miss some time at the start of the season,

Turner's an interesting corner infield option, but knowing that it probably has a short shelf license, although let's say Horner misses the first three weeks of the season, he's back in mid-April and Shaw is struggling, you can definitely see a path where Justin Turner gets 450 plate appearances for this team. Yeah, sure, it's possible if enough events break his way. I think the most likely scenario is Matt Shaw, on opening day, Matt Shaw is starting at third base

and Nico Horner starting at second base and Justin Turner will start at first base the first time they face a left-hander but he'll be the secondary option there behind Michael Bush. So it's possible that somebody gets hurt or Shaw just doesn't make the cut or Horner isn't quite ready but that's not what I think is the most likely scenario.

I kind of liked Michael Bush as a corner infielder but as a strong side platoon it does take away some volume and counting stats and things like that. So don't love it as much. And I'm also a big fan of Sayas Suzuki. I don't think this will affect him, but, you know, they have another guy.

Like, maybe he just gets an extra day off here or there throughout the course of the season. The twins signed tie France to a one-year, $1 million contract, and apparently is viewed as their starting first baseman. I just, one million dollar deal, and, hey, you're our starting first baseman. That seems kind of crazy to me.

But he's 30 years old, has been pretty bad the past two years. last season hit just 13 home runs with a 670 OPS. The last time he really was helpful for fantasy was back in 2022. Any interest in Thai friends? Not really, no. I think you can see a word because his underlying numbers in 2023 were actually quite good. And then he underperformed them.

And then he signed with the Mariners last year. And I think, or he was still with the Mariners, sorry. And he had 83 strikeouts and 88 games. and I think it could be a situation where he was just struggling like so many in Seattle do to see the baseball. But then he went to Cincinnati and also was not very good. So I think it's not a particularly compelling case. Well, if you'll remember the talk of Thai France at this time last year was he went to drive line because he saw the impact it made for J.P. Crawford in 2023. And then both he and Crawford were terrible in 2024.

Thai France said that he kind of abandoned the stuff he learned there and went back to his old swing or tried to recapture it this off season. So maybe that'll help. I know Rocco Baldelli has said he views Thai France as the starter at first base, but the GM has said it's a competition between Thai France, Edward Julian, and who's the third guy? Oh, Miranda, Jose Miranda. Yeah. Yeah, they've got a lot of moving parts because Brooks Lee's also around. Miranda may start at first. They may still go with Edward Julian at second.

So there's some moving parts there for sure. I don't think any of those guys really matter in a 12-team league. But in a 15-team league, like, Jose Miranda was really good until his back injury. So I hope he doesn't specifically lose time as a result of this. The Pirates signed Andrew Heaney to a one-year $5 million. deal. He's now 33 years old. He was okay last year. 428 ERA 125 whip, nearly a strikeout per inning with a 12% swinging strike rate. Any interest in Andrew Heaney in deeper leagues? The pitcher pool is so deep. Yeah. He's been useful in the past, but he's also been

volatile. And I just think I can come up with other pitchers on, at least at this point in draft prep season, even in deep leagues like that. Like, I'll take, I'll take a flyer on a David Festa before I'll invest in Andrew Heaney. So it's just, he's rarely been anything more than useful as well outside of what, that one stretch with the Dodgers really. So, um, I think it's more annoying for Bubba Chandler than interesting for Andrew Heaney. My hope is that if Bubba Chandler comes out this spring and just shoves, he'll have a job.

But it does complicate things a little. little bit more. Their rotation right now, Paul Skeens, Mitch Keller, Jared Jones, Andrew Heaney, and Bailey Falter. Maybe if one of those guys just looks terrible, the back-end guys look terrible in Spring and Bubba Chandler is awesome. Faulter could falter. It's right there on the name. Yeah, I mean, I don't think he's anything special for like a real life or fantasy perspective, but yeah, it might complicate things a little bit for those pirates pitching prospects that we're pretty excited about. The D-BAC signed Geraldo Pardomo to a four-year $45 million extension, and My immediate thought, what about Jordan Lawler?

I say he's at a dead-in job. That was my tweet that got a lot of traction. And some pushback from Diamondbacks fans. Yeah, I understand why Ahuhenio Suarez is starting over Jordan Lawler to begin this season. But I didn't understand why Geraldo Perdomo was. I know the MO on him is he's a great defender. the data doesn't really support that. Yeah.

So, and he's clearly not that good of a hitter if you buy, if you buy hitting stats at all. But apparently he's like a good leader and Diamondbacks fans clearly have a fondness for him. Jordan Lawler probably is in line to take over at third base after Suarez leaves, right? This is a contract year for him. And there were some rumors that Suarez could. get traded this offseason. They didn't go anywhere, but Lawler doesn't turn 23 until July. And he played 23 games last year and only 119 the year before. So as much as we want to see

him, he's played 28 games above double A. So yeah, but he's it does feel like he's two years overdue for a promotion, right? Like, well, because he was promoted two years ago. Yeah. Yeah. And he just, he missed all that time. last year with the thumb injury. Played well when he was healthy at the end of the year. But like it already feels like his prospect standing is getting stale because of how long we've been waiting for him to break through. And now it doesn't seem like there's an opening.

Life finds a way on all of that. Maybe Perdomo or Suarez gets hurt or maybe Suarez just, you know, kind of turns back into a pumpkin like we've seen from him in recent years. but this extension for Perdomo kind of removes the stashability for Jordan Lawler in the short term, because there isn't a clear path anymore. Unless he plays center field in spring training, and they could give him a look that way. But he hasn't done that yet in his career.

I've seen our buddy of the Welsh kind of speculate on that exact thing, that maybe Jordan Lawler gets some reps in the outfield this spring. But to my knowledge, I have not seen any reports of that actually happening yet. yet. Let's take our first break when we return, we'll run through the rest of the news, and then your mailbag questions right after this. Welcome back in, breaking down the news and notes of the week, and moving past some of the extension stuff and signings, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., well, I guess this is kind of partially related to that,

and the Blue Jays were unable to reach a contract extension, and he will test free agency at the end of the season. So, we'll see. My guess is based on that Juan Soto contract. He will get a lot of money, not Juan Soto. money, but he will get a lot of money. He's such a hard player to figure out the contract for because he's not Juan Soto. No.

He's not Bryce Harper or Mani Machado even. He's, but he'll be 27, you know, when he's a free agent. And they were too. I think there were 26 or 27 when they made their free agency. So like, I think you, if I were just handing out contracts, I would just give him the Bryce Harper contract from, what, four years ago now? because he's not as good as Bryce Harper. He's the same age, but there's been some inflation.

So I think that contract will work. But like, you figure he's probably looking for $400 million. Yeah. I don't know if he's worth that. Yeah, the market hasn't been kind to first baseman in recent years, whether it's Pete Alonzo or even you go back and look at the deal Freddie Freeman got. There are so few teams that need a first basement at any given time. And it's not considered a premium defensive positions.

So Guerrero's capable of playing third base, which maybe helps. And just the fact he's so young probably helps. But because he's a first baseman, I think we might be underwhelmed by what he ends up getting. Mike Trout is moving to right field, a combination of Joe Adele, Mickey Moniac, and Taylor Ward will manned center field for the Angels. Does this affect your evaluation of Trout at all? I think you can hope it keeps him healthy, but I don't actually buy that you're less likely to get hurt. play like the one aspect that I guess I hadn't considered is like the right fielder is going to back up fewer plays than the center fielder so maybe it's a marginal difference in the amount of

where and tear it is but I I don't think it really changes it the thing for me is just like the angels had to have known this conversation was coming and they just didn't add a center fielder like i'm sorry mickey moniac's not a an everyday player joe adele no i really don't think he's a center fielder i'm hoping he can handle it i'm hoping he can uh just because i'd rather see him out there than mickey moniac but the angels are just weird man i don't like angels are the angels yeah it's annoying yep elie de la cruz tweaked his batting stance in hopes that it will help him cut down on the strikeouts. He struck out 31%

of the time last season. Corey Seeger is not expected to face any restrictions during training camp. He had two sports hernia surgeries last year with the second one coming in September. Jose Altuve's first spring game will be in left field. The Astro seemed pretty set on

getting Altuve playing time there which will make him dual eligible for fantasy. At some point he'll have second base and outfield eligibility. It's got some good news for your boy, Christian Yelich. He said there's no reason to think he won't be ready for opening day. Let's see him in some games and see how his body and his back reacts, of course. Frankie Montas has been diagnosed with a high-grade lat train and will be shut down for six to eight weeks.

Maybe a last round injury stash for those who have IL spots if you're interested in doing that kind of thing. Carrie Carpenter could see more playing time against left-handed pitching this season. In his career, he has hit 202 with a five. 88 OPS against lefties. It could hurt the batting average, but if he plays every day or close to it, maybe it helps the county sets for Kerry Carpenter. Yeah, I'm skeptical.

It would help, but it probably comes out in the wash, I guess. My whole case for Carrie Carpenter is a bust is that he's going to sit against every left-hander, so what can his runs an RBI look like? So if nothing else, this news has me rethinking that. I'm surprised, and I don't know that they'll stick with it necessarily, because he has been horrendous in his few opportunities against left-handers.

And he's in his late 20s already, so I don't know how much improvement you can count on. But it is true that they're saying they're open to playing Kerry Carpenter against left-anders more. Harrison Bader, who signed with the Twins last week, is expected to see a significant amount of playing time in left field, which is interesting because Trevor Larnick was supposed to be there and then there's Matt Wanner and Ritefield. So are you guys knocking either of those players Larnick or Matt Wulner with Harrison Bader there? Significant is the word used and there's not a lot of specificity

with that word significant just means not insignificant, right? So I interpreted and I think I was reading through some of the Twins Beat Rider material. That's how I got that note on Thai France. I was reading through that earlier today. And they expect Trevor Larnick and Matt Wulner to be in the corners most of the time. They're both left-handed hitters and baiter-bats right-handed,

so significant just could mean he spells one or the other against lefties. But mainly he's there to back up Buxden and center, given Buxden's injury history. So I don't think it'll really affect Larnick or Wulner beyond what we were already expecting for their playing time. Trey Turner could bat lead off this season for the Phillies, with Kyle Swarber sliding down to third or fourth in their lineup. Sean Murphy is expecting to rebound after the oblique injury last year.

Quote, missing that much time at the beginning. That's not how I wanted to begin the season. I'm not sure my swing ever felt correct coming off the oblique. Not that I was in any pain or hurt. Some things just felt off, and I never caught up and found a way to adjust. So I think that's a pretty fair excuse for him. And as I've said, I like him. as a catch or two target this season.

I mean, that was the theory for Sean Murphy Sleeper was that he was never right after that oblique injury. So it's encouraging to hear him say that. That he, you know, it's not just us theorizing anymore. Murphy's backing it up. Nationals manager Dave Martinez said earlier this week that lefty Jose Ferrer is a candidate for saves along with Jorge Lopez.

They also signed Lucas Sims this week. So could he, factor into the mix at all. I don't kind of feels like it's a bullpen to avoid. I don't know. Maybe, but I don't. Like, the problem is one, Ferrer is a lefty.

Two, it's not clear he's good. Low strikeout rate. Yeah, really low strikeout rate for the fact that he throws legitimately 1001 miles per hour. So yeah, I don't know. Someone's going to be the closer there and

it's a situation where I would really hope not to speculate until we get some kind of concrete answer. Tyler Kinley, Seth Halverson and Victor Vodnick are all in the mix for Rocky Saves, according to Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Alex Kora said Tristan Kossis is expected to be an everyday player and play against both lefties and righties this season. David Bednar is expected to begin the season as the Pirates Closer, as we expected. Jeffrey Springs had a full, healthy offseason and does not expect to have any

workload limitations this season. And a few deep sleeper alerts here. Blue Jays prospect Alan Rodin was singled out by GM Ross Atkins as somebody who could make a big impact this season. And MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo thinks Angel's second base prospect, Christian Moore, has a really, really good chance

to make the team's opening day roster. Yeah. Alan Rodin, for what it's worth, 100 on my top 100 prospects for this season. So I'm a fan. I thought you were saying he was 100 years old. and hits the ball really hard, has good fly ball and pull tendencies,

good plate discipline, just does a lot of things we like to see from hitters these days. And I don't think he's going to make the team out of spring training. The Blue Jays have a lot of fringe lineup guys, way too many than they can actually find a bats for, so to include rodent in that mix would just kind of be the straw that breaks the camel's back, I guess. but they're singling them out

and I could see him making an impact this year too. More might be more likely to make the team and is a prospect of greater upside overall than Rodin, I would say. Lower floor too, but higher ceiling. And I don't know. The only thing is where would Luis Renhifo play if Moore made the team

because you feel like he deserves at bats based on what he did last year. I think he's pretty much penciled in as the leadoff hitter, isn't he? But I think he could play third base. They signed Yoan Moncada. Like, he doesn't really need at bats, I guess. Right. So is the battle between Moncada and Moore, basically?

Maybe. Well, I do wonder if maybe Renhifo could be part of the answer in centerfield. He hasn't played there very much, but he does have some experience in the outfield. He's certainly an athlete. So, you know, maybe that's one potential answer to that question. I missed this one earlier with the signings, but the Astro signed Brendan Rogers to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training.

If Altuvae does play left field a lot, maybe they're going to actually do that. There is playing time available at second base. Any interest in deeper leagues in Brendan Rogers? I wish the second base options that the Astros had were interesting at all. And I don't think Brandon Rogers is. outside of course field. I took him in the reserve rounds of the AL-only auction.

We just did the other day. So he didn't even get a bid on him. But I was interested in taking him in the reserve rounds of an AL-only league. Yeah, because there is that possibility. He gets most of the at-bats at second base, since it does sound like the Astros want Al-Tufe. Oh, yeah. He's going to play there at least, they said,

the first week of the spring training, and then they're going to see what it looks like after that. Yeah. I mean, the problem is it's not like the left field options are particularly interesting in Houston either. No, their outfield is bad. They really don't have much to hope for in these altars. So like I was excited to take him in the, or I was interested to take him in the reserve rounds of an AL only draft is about the faintest praise with which you can damn a player at this point.

Yeah. We're rooting for some peripheral astral. Astros prospects to maybe land in their outfield, Shay Whitcomb and Zach DeZenzo. Let's see what those guys could do this spring. On the subject of where Renhifo, Luis Renhifo, Bats for the Angels, Ron Washington did say a few days ago

that he expects his top three hitters to be Jorge Saler, Mike Trout, and Taylor Ward in some order. So Renhifo, I presume he's an everyday player, but it doesn't sound like he'll be in the upper third of the lineup. Some injuries from the week, Do any of these concern you as of now? James Wood was held out of outfield drills

due to left quad tendonitis. Jesus Sanchez is recovering from right elbow inflammation. Clark Schmidt dealing with a cranky back. Tyler Fitzgerald day to day with a lower back injury and Twins' outfield prospect. Emmanuel Rodriguez is delayed a week or two with a sprain left ankle. I think it's too early to be too concerned about any of these

except for Schmidt just because pitchers are always a little more concerning when they get derailed early in spring training than hitters, and the rest of these guys don't matter all that much anyway. The one thing, Scott, who's the other? Walker Jenkins. You know, the twins have two like top 10 prospects and Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez. You know, they're in similar spots in their career.

It does sound like Walker Jenkins might be expected to move a little quicker this season, so any delay for Emmanuel, Hard Regis might make that more likely, but that was something that I was reading from one of the Twinsby writers today. All right, Chris, well, we haven't heard any sirens, so I guess we'll just have to do the pitcher alerts, right? Yeah, I guess we'll just get into it. Pitchers with new pitches so far, and this comes courtesy of our friend Lance Brozdowski.

He's posted this on Twitter X, so make sure to follow him at Lance Braz. Kevin Gosman is apparently working on a cutter. Clay Holmes, a change-up, a four seam, and a slider. Jackson Job, a sinker, and a curve. Max Meyer, a sweeper and a sinker. Paul Skeens, a running two seam and a cutter. Casey Mize experimenting with two different sliders. AJ Puck, a changeup.

Grace and Rodriguez. No. No? Stop, AJ. Grace and Roger. He tried this already. What was a splitter last year? Yeah.

Grayson Rodriguez is bringing sweeper back. Yep. Let's do it. Jake Irvin with a slider, Bryce Miller, and George Kirby with cutters. Jared Jones with a sinker. AJ Smith-Shavre with a cutter. Kyle Harrison. a cutter slash slider, Tyler

McGill, a tighter curveball, Hurston Waldrop, an old curveball, Graham Ashcraft, a cutter, and then some maybes, Griffin Canning with a sinker, and Christopher Sanchez with a cutter. Hopefully you could keep up with all that. I just threw a lot of names and pitches had you, but do any of these in particular

have you excited? I don't know how long you want to spend on this, but I do have quite a few thoughts if we can spend a few minutes. Sure. Clay Holmes, the change up, that's obvious. was like the most obvious thing he would have to develop because his approach mostly has been almost entirely sinker,

slider sweeper, and that's why he has like a 520 OPS against Wrighties in his career. That's also why his OPS against lefties is like 180 points higher. I think he might have real problems getting lefties out if the change up isn't workable, but he's aware of it. The Mets are aware of it, obviously. And I think that's going to be the biggest, for Clay Holmes chances of surviving as a starter because teams are just going to stack their lineup with lefties if he doesn't have a viable pitch to neutralize the platoon.

To the extent they can. I mean, obviously, benches are pretty small these days because every team carries 13 pitchers. But yeah, I hear you. Jackson Job, we've talked a lot about recently as I think one of the most undervalued players in fantasy this year. he's a spin master, a spin doctor. Spin, yeah, that makes more sense probably. And the curveball was his primary breaking ball before he got to the pros. It ended up not getting as many swings and misses. But having that as a pitch that can potentially get him in more advantageous counts,

rather than as a swing and miss pitch could be helpful. Max Meyer going with the sweeper, I think could potentially really matter. He needs to get some fastball velocity back. but his slider was just okay. Last year, he didn't really have like a punchout weapon and a sweeper. In addition to keeping the slider that he had last year, which had more vertical movement, could be a big deal. Grayson Rodriguez, I mentioned this in the pitching preview,

going back to the sweeper, which was a much better pitch as a rookie than his slider was last year. His slider is more of a cutter. And I think when he started throwing the new version of the slider last year, it was originally counted as a. cutter by baseball savant so that could be how it works where the the slider acts as a cutter it's more of a strike stealer a pitch to use against lefties to generate some weak contact and the sweeper can be more of that put away pitch that he kind of is missing i think um so i like seeing that

who was that last one uh grays and rodriguez okay okay um the mariners everybody adds a new pitch every off season seemingly for them. I think Bryce Miller's up to 14 pitches. Now, that's only a slight exaggeration. I think it's actually eight or nine. And look, Kyle Harrison, cutter, slider, I don't care if his fastball's not good. That's the biggest thing for me is he threw his fastball

like 70% of the time last year, I think. And it was like 92, 93 most of the season. And it was down to like 91 towards the end. Kyle Harrison needs to get that fastball back up to like 95. if he's going to have any chance. So he did say this spring that he's rediscovered velocity after shoulder and ankle injuries got his delivery out of whack last season. So I'm interested in seeing what Kyle Harrison looks like this spring. Sort of like I was saying for Andrew Heaney, the pitcher pool is so deep that it's hard to imagine I'd ever get to a point where I'm taking Kyle Harrison in a standard size league.

But he is trying some new things and obviously has a huge pedigree in his. history as a prospect. And the only other one I'll mention here is Jared Jones. Just want to see what that sinker looks like. Maybe it lowers the strikeout rate overall, but he really needs a third pitch that he can go to. He was so four seam and slider reliant last season. He also said he's working on his curveball and change up.

So that'll be something to watch during spring training again. Jared Jones of the Pirates. And the one I'm most interested in is Jackson Job. You didn't mention him, right? Chris kind of talked to him. He did mention. Okay, well, the reason he's adding the sinker in curveball, he said, was for the explicit reason of

putting hitters away better than he did last year, getting more strikeouts to put a finer point on it. And that was one of my concerns for Job looking at his double A members. Like, why didn't he strike out more hitters down there for being such a big prospect? Before we hit our final break, just a reminder, next week is strategy week here on the podcast.

So we'll talk all different types of roto, head to head points, head to head categories, auction strategy, how to draft from each position if you have an early, mid, and a late pick in the first round. So that'll be the main focus for next week. And big thanks to everyone watching us live. Make sure to hit the like button

and subscribe to the channel if you haven't already. Final break and then your mailbag questions right after this. Welcome back in Fantasy Baseball today. A Kokomo Mailbag Friday. Continue to send your questions in Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. That's the letter I. And I won't

answer keeper questions here on the podcast, but I will try to answer some of those emails individually, if I can. And you can drop a five-star rating on Apple Podcasts. You can leave your question in the review as well. This one is from Michael, if Otani were to get injured stealing a base similar to the World Series,

and he is pitching and must leave the game. What happens to the lineup? Do they lose the DH and need to replace their pitcher all at once, or do they still get to use the DH with someone else? I think this could be more reason for to run less, especially when he isn't pitching.

I don't think this would matter. I think if your DH has to leave the game, you can just replace them with a DH. The only exception is, I think it's if the DH hasn't appeared in the game yet. There is one exception where you would lose your DH, but I don't know that it's likely to come into play at all. And there is, there's another wrinkle with the DH rule. Oh, where he wouldn't count towards the pitcher limit on the roster, but that also wouldn't really matter.

The one thing that we didn't mention in our discussion of Shohei Otani, the pitcher, and this only comes up in leagues where he is pitcher, where you have to choose a pitcher or a hitter. Two different players. Where there are two different players, yeah. That's the better way to describe it. is he's not going to pitch the first month or so of the season, but he is going to hit.

So he's not going to be on the IL. Now, apparently Yahoo made Shohe Otani IL eligible as a pitcher last year. Maybe that's just because he was out for the whole season. I can't, I don't know. I can't say what they're going to do this year, but it would be weird if they made him on the IL when he's not on the IEL. Actually on the IL, obviously, he was winning MVP, but they decided to put the pitcher version on the virtual IL.

But that is something to keep in mind, if you were planning on drafting show Heo Tini, the pitcher is it might just be a dead roster spot for a month and a half. And he's not going to go on a minor league rehab assignment either. So his first start since tearing his UCL is going to be his first start of the season. Good luck. There's going to be a rampal period there. It's, when are we going to get five or six innings out of Otani?

June maybe? I would say June at the earliest, unless he's like, you know, he could be really, but like he's probably going to be limited to 70 or so pitches, I would guess. I think even less early on. Yeah, but I do think the overall point about injury concern, we talked about this the other day. We just do expect him to run less this year. Yep.

This one is from Derek. I would love to hear Scott White's thoughts on how his previous years, 2024, starting pitcher's strategy of focusing on strikeout rates in lieu of other stats available worked out. I know I am oversimplifying Scott strategy used in a 24 draft season prep, but for the sake of brevity, I hope my question is clear enough. I continue to listen throughout the offseason and don't recall Scott ever stating specifically how he thought it worked out. Would he try it again? Were there any pitfalls? How did it affect all other categories? So to summarize what the strategy was, remember last year with the starting pitcher for me, pitcher position for me

was all about the glob, a very large group of pitchers, not that far down the rankings, where they all just felt kind of like random number generators and had no idea what to expect from them. They all felt unappealing. So once you're in that glob, I suggested focusing on the high strikeouts guys, because of nothing else you could rely on that, the ERA and WIP are going to be less predictable, but you can at least count on pulling away in strikeouts. How did it work out? I don't remember having any... I won the Memorial Magazine League.

Obviously, this was more of a Roto-specific strategy because in Points League, you don't care about strikeouts as much from pitchers. So I won that league. I don't know that I won it on the strength of pitching necessarily, and I wouldn't say my pitching staffs were good in Roto leagues on the whole. was it a fault of the strategy? It may have just been that I didn't follow the strategy very well. You know, it's easier said than done to to thread that needle of getting the high strikeout guys.

So I, if somebody out there executed it better than I did, maybe it paid off for them. But I can't say that like I went out and dominated the pitching categories in all my roto leagues with my approach last year. I do think in the long run, just focusing on whiffs and strikeouts and specifically K-minus walk rate has been one of the biggest indicators of just future pitcher success. Focusing on those things, I think in the long run will usually pay off for starting pitchers. Of course, there are some pitchers up top who don't have gaudy strikeout rates. Framber Valdez comes to mind. Corbyn's strikeout rate has been down the past couple of years. And we still expect those pitchers to be really helpful in fantasy. So, you know,

you have to know the player pool and you know which pitchers can kind of overcome i guess not huge strikeout rates but yeah i think in the long run you you still just want to mostly focus on pitchers that can get you whiffs yeah among mainstream stats that everybody's heard of like if you if you if you have to choose one that tells you how good a pitcher is it's strikeouts and but that's been that's been long settled this one is from cody in washington Dear Phoebe, Lucy and Julian. Julian? Julian.

Those are my boys. Those are your boys? Who are those? That's boy genius. The indie rock supergroup. Oh gosh. Raises Lucy Dacus and Julian Baker. Three of the best singer-songwriters of their era.

All right. What's the data on two-star pitchers in the last few years? Has the number gone down drastically and anecdotally, does it seem like two-star pitchers are skipped slash pushback more often? I'm rejoining a points league for the first time in a few years, and the two-star pitcher strategy I've had success with in the past seems less solid. And you know what?

I am going to whoever answers this question, clip it out and send it to my dad because I've brought this up before. We play in a head-to-pointe league, our home league, for the past decade. He will stream anyone who has two-stars. Like, him focusing on his opponents and how many starts they have is like his main strategy.

That's probably why. he hasn't won in a long time, but yes, he really likes two-star pitchers. I mean, if you can be dedicated with it and actually manipulate your roster in a way that you can always maximize that, I suppose it likely would pay off in the long run if you're just doubling the point per game output of every starting pitcher versus, you know, like of every mediocre starting pitcher versus a good starting pitcher, double the output from the mediocre in the long run. theoretically would pay off. But yes, to answer the question here, as somebody who puts together two-start pitcher rankings every week for the site, I will say that especially last year,

but it's probably been a gradual increase over the years, I keep repeating who is in my two-start pitcher rankings because they got pushed back and didn't make two starts, which has me thinking, I might need to do it differently this year. Teams are less interested than ever in starting guys on four days rest. And so they will insert a sixth guy.

Some teams are just going with a six-man rotation outright. But I think most teams at this point will insert a sixth guy if they happen to play six straight games. And so you've got to look at where the off day falls. if the off day comes on a Monday for the team and then they play six straight games Tuesday through Sunday, you know, in the past, you can count on the Tuesday starter also starting Sunday. But I don't know that you can count on that anymore.

And same thing, if it's a seven-day week, there's no off day at all of the week. Okay, the pitcher who starts Monday is going to start Sunday. You can count on that. But the pitcher who starts Tuesday, you know, in the past it would have been Monday, Saturday, Tuesday, Sunday. but now it's probably going to be Monday Sunday and the Tuesday guy not making two starts. So yes, I think I don't know how consistent it is that I can say with absolute certainty

you can't count on a Tuesday starter also starting Sunday. But it's certainly not as bankable as it's been at the past. And I don't know how you'd look at the data for it, but what I would say is, in 2019, the last year before the COVID shortened season that I feel like has kind of been an accelerant for a lot of long-term changes at pitcher. There were seven pitchers who made 34 starts that year.

Last year, there were zero. And there were eight who made 33 starts in 2024. In 2019, there were 20. So you figure that's two fewer two-start weeks for the guys who made 32 instead of 34, right? And I think it is heavily team dependent. Like, I feel like the Braves probably had very few two start weeks last week last year.

And I feel like there were a ton of times where like I think there was like a three, literally a three week in a row stretch where Chris Sale was listed as a two star pitcher in Scott's rankings. And they just like he almost never pitched on four days rest. And so I think it probably just like the. Dodgers are not going to have any two-star weeks. They're right. They will, they will be very few and far between for them. I would say the brave, same thing because of Spencer Shreder coming back from his injury. I think rotations, rotations that have Japanese pitchers in them.

I think that's less likely as well because they kind of want to space those starts out as well. So like the Cubs with Imanaga and maybe even like the Mets, we know they're trying to use a six-man rotation. So yeah, I would look at those as well. And the Dodgers, the Dodgers have said they don't plan on going six-man and until Shohei Otani comes back. But that's because of five days. Okay.

Okay. So they're presuming they'll have enough five-day rest periods. Yeah. They just teams in general prefer five days rest for pitchers than four days anymore. And I know the Braves have said they plan to take the same approach with sale this year. I mean, why not? It worked out last year. So it's there probably will be a couple seven-day scoring periods where sale lines up for Monday and then also pitch a Sunday.

but he's not going to have as many two-start weeks as maybe the average ace would. He probably will only have like three or four over the course of the season. And then Shoddy Managa to illustrate the point, only six of his 29 starts last year. We're on four days rest. Yep. This next one's from Tony. High Duckworth, Graham, and Cole. Kendrick Lamar, Drake, and Jay Cole.

Yeah, I think. The three dudes from the rap feud of 2024. I did not know Kendrick Lamar's last. name was Duckworth. Yeah, Kendrick Lamar Duckworth. Aubrey Graham and... Germain Cole. Germain Lamar Cole, I believe is his name.

There you are. I am curious how you all plan to approach your draft board and overall draft strategy, if at all, in head-to-category leagues versus Roto leagues this year. For example, I am currently in a shallow five-by-six league with three outfielders,

one util, less than 275 players drafted, where Holtz is a separate category. in addition to saves, but not saves plus holds. They're two separate ones. Things that come to mind for me, do players of extremes? Aaron Judge, Ellie Dela Cruz,

Jacob de Grom, rise up your draft board in a format like this, or does your overall approach to rankings remain the same? And in a league where holds are a separate category, how much draft capital are you willing to invest in a closer,

not a setup man? How if I put it in the past? I like category dominators more in a head-to-head categories league than a Roto League those jack of all trades master of none types I feel like just don't make the same impact because you got to remember head-to-head categories league

you're going week to week so you need to count on somebody making a big enough impact in the category he specializes in in a singular week and if it's a 20 steel guy for instance over the space over the course of a 27 week season you're going to get 20 steals well you can't count on getting a single steal from that guy any given week. So I, this is approach, this is a change I made to my approach in head-to-head categories

leagues a few years ago when I felt like I was not performing particularly well in them. And it seems like it's helped a lot. It's just, you know, like a Kyle Schwerber type for home runs versus, you know, trying to make that up in the aggregate with a few different, with a couple different 20 homer guys. I think a good example of this is like Xander Bogart, who I think we all kind of like as a value this season, but in the head-to-head categories league, if he gets 18 homers and 18 steals over the course of the season,

like that's pretty useful for a Roto League. And head-to-head categories league, there's going to be one week where he hits two. Yeah. Well, just the math alone on that means there's going to be eight weeks where he doesn't hit any, right? Like that's just the way that's going to work out. And so, yeah, I think the point Scott makes is a good.

one. I used to tinker try a strategy of just fading and punting steals just because they were much harder to come by. But the way that the environment changed, it doesn't really make much sense to try and punt steals, just because they're so readily available now. But they're independent of every other stats. Yeah, punting is a more viable strategy in this format. Right. For the second question, how much draft capital are you willing to invest in a closer in a league where you have two different categories for holds and saves. I don't know that it really changes your strategy for drafting saves.

I think you should still maybe try and get at least one or two closers you feel good about, I think. So here's the thing. The high end closers are going to get more saves than the high end set up guys are going to get holds. But the high end holds guys will in theory help you at least a little bit in two categories.

Whereas the high end close. are just going to help you in one. Is it crazy to say you might rather have Kirby Yates than Tanner Scott in a league where saves and holds are separate categories? I don't know. I'm throwing it out there. That's just my thought. When you're a jack of all trades master of none as a butcher.

Kirby Yates might get 25 holds and 10 saves. Tanner Scott might just get 30 saves. Yeah. The 25 and 10 is probably more valuable. I don't know. I'm genuinely unsure of how, If that's how it plays out. Yeah.

But yeah, so it probably does jam up the relief pitcher rankings a little bit. That's not the word I was looking for. But the bottom line is I think you pretty much draft saves as you normally would because it's its own singular category. And then I think what we were saying withholds in the relief pitcher preview where there are enough guys who can contribute a significant enough number and enough emerging options on the waiver wire, even a fairly deep league,

that you don't have to make a big investment of holds. You just have to pay attention to them. You just can't ignore them. And that's a pretty easy. That's a pretty easy standard to me. This one is from Chris Tower. I'm the commissioner of a 12 team mixed league. We use home runs, runs, steals, RBI, and OPS as the offensive categories.

I have the first overall pick, and I'm really up in the air on whether to take Otani, Judge or Bobby Whit Jr. I'll be starting the league with Bryce Harper, Jackson, Trio, and Garrett Crochet as my keepers. That is a great start already. But in a league that adds OPS as a category, who would you take first?

Otani, Judge, and Bobby Witt. I think... I think Judge was far and away the highest. Judge is the better OPS guy. I think in terms of expected OPS this season, I would probably go Judge Otani Witt. But Judge is the guy who's had 2,100 OPS seasons.

I don't think O-Tonni's ever gotten that high, right? It was like 1090 this year? It was, yeah. It was 1036. Okay, yeah. 1066 the previous year. But yeah, Judge is better. Judge is like all-time great OPS guy.

But Judge also isn't going to give you the steals that Otani or Bobby Witt will give you. So, I mean, is that trade-off worth it? getting more OPS. It probably is, right? Because the rates are harder to come by. I mean, in standard 5 by 5 leagues, I have Judge and Otani at the same dollar value. So if you're skewing the format toward Judge,

that puts them ahead of Otani for me. All right, this one's from Ryan. Love the show and Scott's newest Valentine's Musings this year. It's what we're all here for, really. Two questions regarding trades. One, what are the biggest principles you guide yourself by in trades? Two, what specific tools slash resources do you like to use when you dig into specifics in evaluating trades?

Hmm. I've heard of people using like trade analyzed tools and things. Like, I don't know. I've never found them that accurate. It's just so subjective. It comes down to how you and the person you're trying to trade with feel about those players and the needs of both of those fantasy managers. I mean, that's really the biggest thing.

To use an extreme example, if you're doing really well on stolen bases and someone offers you Bryce Terang, you probably just turn that one down because he's not going to give you anything. So like that, it's very team dependent, especially in a Roto League, because it often depends on what categories you need versus what categories your opponent needs, not just what positions they need. So it's really hard to have a one size fits all, although that is what we attempt to do. And I do a trade values column in season. and it is more or less just trying to apply the salary cap slash auction values that we have preseason to players in season. There's never a perfect answer to that.

Nope. But that's the way I do it. But any of those tools, whether it's the trade analyzer tool or the trade values chart that I put out, it's mostly just to make sure you're in the right ballpark. You know, like it's a plus or minus. three to five points either way where you can say a trade is fair. If you're a confident player other than kind of using that for a sanity check, I don't know that any tools are going to help you that much.

I mean, frankly, getting people to engage in trades is the biggest hurdle these days. I feel like they're far less common in fantasy baseball than they used to be. And when I've written about trades the past couple years, I've kind of been writing about it from that angle. And so principles when making trades, I mean, I don't know if this is the sort of thing you're looking for, but getting a conversation going, which means these days, I think texting is the most effective way to do that, rather than just sending somebody an offer through the league tool or even sending them an email that's very likely to be overlooked. If you have their phone number, it can actually text them, you have a better chance of getting them to. engage right away. And once they're engaged, you're far, far more likely to work something out, far more likely. That's how I pull off 90% of the, 90 maybe a little high, but 80% of the

trades I make these days is I get somebody, I get to texting the person I want to make a trade with. Do either of you ever get on the phone and call somebody? Because I know Ian Khan, who is a very successful fantasy player, whenever he makes trades, he gets on the phone. He will call. I mean, that's a higher level of intimacy, I feel like. But it's already, it already, I already worry that I'm intruding on somebody's life who I barely know. I may not even be able to picture their face. I just know them through this league and happen to have their phone numbers. So I'm not going to call them up on the phone.

If you're your best friend that you see, I don't know, dozen times a year, that's probably fine. But no, I'd at least start with texting. And if you have to move on to the phone, then maybe that makes sense. I remember Nando Defino used to tell me about another trick that he would try. I don't know how it's successful it was, but he would send out a bunch of trades across the league and just blast email the league. Just sent out a bunch of trades.

The first one to accept gets the trade done. I've tried gimmicks like that. I think everybody knows what you're doing. I mean, part of it is because I say it's harder to pull off trades these days. Part of it's because people who start, playing fantasy. People who are playing fantasy today, by and large, they've been playing it for a long time now. So they've kind of seen all the tricks and you can't really get away with tricks anymore. And I think part of it is everybody more or less values players the same. Yeah.

That there's a flattening of valuations. So you don't have as many. I think this guy's awesome. You think he's terrible. Let's trade him because I like him more. Like that, that just, doesn't exist anymore. For the most part, there's a much narrower range of potential views of any given player. So it's one of the reasons why, like, it's hard to find obviously good or bad values in draft season.

Yeah, because, you know, there's not the Seth Lugo coming off the season he had last year being ranked as a top 15 pitcher. He's barely top 50. Right. Everybody's got the same data sort.

Like, we've become so good at a value players that we've lost how to value ourselves divergent and that's why most of the trades I make these days aren't Dynasty leagues too because then at least you have

teams going in clearly different directions you can find yeah you can find a match that way definitely agree on the Dynasty League stuff like make a bunch of trades in the Scott White Dynasty League I'm in a fantasy basketball Dynasty League and I I make it trades all the time

it feels much more likely people are just more invested, I guess, too, when they know, hey, this is a league that we're playing out over a couple of years. Let's do a few rapid fire questions. This one's from Rodney. We use K to walks instead of strikeouts, rank these three in that format. Sean Minaya, Christopher Sanchez,

and Kada Senka. Senga, Sanchez, and Mania for me. I don't think K divided by walks would change it. Senga's worse in that, but I still think it'll be very good. I was thinking Mania might climb ahead of Senga, but you put Manaya behind Sanchez even.

I might put Senga last because of the walks. Maybe I get, yeah. I'm going to go Manaya Senga Sanchez, but that may, the difference there may just be how we feel about Mania. Yep. This one's from David, considering how valuable pitching starts are. What teams are projected to have a six-man rotation? We know the Dodgers at some point,

I think majority of the season will likely have a six-man rotation. The Mets are on record saying they would like to try to have one. Obviously, Frankie Montaugh is going. down doesn't help that cause. I think there are a few other teams. Do you guys know off the top of your head? I think the race could have a six-man rotation. I don't know if they've set it one way or the other.

I mean, the Yankees might just have to. Maybe just because otherwise Marcus Stroman might make everyone's lives miserable. The Red Sox, if Gialito is healthy, seem likely to have a six-man rotation. The Phillies, when Andrew Painter is healthy, might have to if they haven't.

I mean, they would probably have lost somebody by then, but yeah, it's possible. But like we were saying earlier, I think almost every team is effectively going to have a five and a half man rotation and serving that sixth guy when they play six straight games. Maybe not like the Mariners. I don't know. Like there may be a few teams that don't fit that description, but I think the majority will. But like the nationals probably will. Like whether it's a six-man rotation, whether it's a six-man rotation, whether.

it's just moving Ogasawara into the rotation when it's, you know, the time for it. The Cardinals could have a six-man rotation. Do the Padres? Maybe the Padres. Yeah. All right. Well, we'll pay more attention there and see. And it's, look, a lot of teams say they want to use a six-man rotation too, and then it's, you know, we're a month into the season and, you know,

three pitcher injuries have happened and it's just not feasible. So I'm sure teams would like to do that, but, you know, does it always happen? Eh, not so sure about that. This one is from Brian. Where does Mookie Betz rank overall if he qualifies at second base, which is the case on Yahoo? No surprise. Second base shortstop and outfield on Yahoo. Is it a toss-up between someone like Jose Ramirez and Mookie Betz?

Does that scarcity move Mookie Betz up in your rankings? As I was talking about when we were summarizing our position previews on the latest show, Second base isn't being approached as a scarce position. So it's not like there's ever really a feeling of urgency. You'll have multiple opportunities at a good one. I don't think you need to push moogie bets up that much with the addition of second base eligibility. I would say it's a close enough call between him and Corby and Carroll that you might move him ahead of Carol. I already haven't had a carol, yeah.

You could argue moving him ahead of like Gunner Henderson, I think. But I wouldn't go as high as Jose Ramirez. Yep. And this last one is from Evan. You know what would be hilarious? Have a bet sometime over the course of the season. And if Scott wins, Chris Chaves his beard. If Chris wins, Scott grows a beard for two months.

I have kind of been trying slash hinting at something like this for a while. I don't think it's ever going to happen. I agree to something like this. last year. I mean, it doesn't, listen, it doesn't affect me at all.

I have a life outside of this square. I don't know if you guys know. My wife has certain preferences for how I keep my facial hair, as I'm sure you guys do too. Many people listening out there, there's probably do. And it would not be, it would not be something I'd want to mess with.

The last, look, I'm willing to do it. Like I shave my beard off every, I don't know, three or four years, you know, let the skin get some air, exfoliate and whatnot.

But I will say the last time I shaved my beard, I did it like after my wife had gone to sleep and she woke up in the middle of the night. It was very upset about it. It's like the baby seeing their dad shaved their beard. Yeah. It's not, she's not a good look.

I mean, it's just not a good look. Like there's a reason I have a beard. You don't want to see what I keep underneath here. Last comment from Evan. Either way, Frank wins. I agree. That would be awesome.

Position previews were awesome. Thank you all for all the work that you put in. I am subscribed. Hashtag LFG 30K. It's a great way to end if you haven't. Subscribe to the channel if you haven't already. We are on the quest to 30,000 YouTube subscribers. We're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris.

I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five star rating. on Apple or Spotify, and we will be back again next week. Bye-bye.