Fantasy Baseball Today - LeMahieu vs. Moncada; Best and Worst Picks of Rounds 1-3 (03/17 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 17, 2020

We start with some Fantasy combos (2:30) as we explore the best ways to build your roster in the early rounds. deGrom and Blackmon vs. Bregman and Morton. Bogaerts and Darvish vs. Kershaw and Bichette ... What shows are you watching on your TV or streaming device right now (12:00)? We tell you what we're getting into. And then we debate D.J. LeMahieu vs. Yoan Moncada (17:35)! Chris makes a spirited case for Moncada ... The best and worst picks of Rounds 1-3 according to ADP (31:00). A lot of Fernando Tatis Jr. talk. Who else stands out in a good or bad way? ... Your emails at [e-mail] 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @CBSFantasyBB, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Download our printable Draft Kit from CBSSports.com/draftkit! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. With fantasy! Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. Back here on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast, we are trying to decide on whose birthday will the season start.

Scott, when your birthday? March 31st. be mine. It started on my birthday before a couple times probably. Sorry, buddy. Not this year. Not this year. So my birthday, June 19th or Chris's birthday, July

4th, closest without going over wins, Chris. Remember this contest. Okay? Important. I'm keeping it in mind. Okay, good. Are we doing like Price's Right style? Yeah. Close without going over? Yeah. Yeah. Okay. So, you know, anything

before July 4th, I I win unless it's before June 19th and then Scott wins actually All right, good. So we have a lot on the line here. Scott's kind of in the best spot. Yeah, I have like a two-week window. This is terrible.

So today, Chris is taking a look at the best and worst picks according to the average draft position. We're going to look at the first five rounds and see what Chris has to say there. There's really no news except Aaron Boone thinks that James Paxton, Aaron Judge, and John Carlos Stanton could be ready for opening day, which must mean that opening day isn't happening until

2022 if he thinks Stanton's going to be ready Let's Yeah, thank you Let's talk about how to construct a team Also I'm going to ask you What you've been watching on TV Or a streaming device

To get past the time We haven't really had that much downtime though I don't feel like I've had extra time I think it's just because we have little kids at him I think that's it Like it's not like we have this sudden No resurgence in free time.

Well, the fact that there is no baseball headlines, there are no baseball headlines does free up time. But this a little bit, yeah. A particular week with all this football stuff going on has been wild. In fact, this might be my final show of the week since I have to do a lot of football stuff, but maybe I'll be back on on Friday. I'm not sure. We'll play it by here.

All right, I want to do some fantasy combos. What do you like better in your first two rounds? Garrett Cole and Fernando Tatis or Walker Bueller and Francisco Lindor Cole and Tatis or Bueller and Lindor Bueller and Lindor? That feels like the less risky pairing. Yeah.

Yeah, I'm inclined to say that too, but it's a close call. Let's change it to a points league. Let's go Garrett Cole and Freddie Freeman or Walker Bueller and Francisco Lindor? Colin Freeman. Yeah, Colin Freeman.

Who do you like better, Freeman or Lindor in a points league? In a points league, I like, I have Freeman ranked ahead. But, I mean, it's, it's, I almost don't care that much. It's, it really comes down to just the difference in the pitcher there in that pairing. Okay, cool. All right, next combo. Here we go. So I'm giving you.

Freeman in round two and Corbyn in round three So you tell me would you rather go Pitcher in round We're going to give you four picks right And you have to decide what you want to do in rounds one through four But I'm telling you you're taking Freeman in round two And Corbin in round three So which combo do you like better

DeGrom Freeman, Corbin, Blackman Or Bregman Freeman, Corbin, Morton So really it becomes DeGrom and Blackman Or Bregman and Morton DeGrom and Blackman

Was that specifically for a points league? The Ours' Choice. I think a points league actually swings it in the Bregman side's favor. Interesting. Just because Bregman's so good in that format.

But I don't know. I might prefer the Bregman side anyway. I'm going to lean the Bregman side. I like DeGromb and Blackman over Bres. Morton and Bregman. Yeah.

It's true that Blackman is one of the more undervalued players, more undervalued high-end hitters. I like these picks, man. I'd be pretty happy if my team had DeGrom, Freeman, Corbin, and Blackman through four rounds. Of course, you're never steals. You're presenting some tough choices here, Adam. That's what I do.

That's what you do. Yep, that's the point. Chris, did you give an answer? You said it's a Grom and Black one, right? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Okay.

Yeah, that's twice. Yeah. All right. Last one. Would you rather have Zander Bogarts and U. Darvish or Bo Bichette and Clayton Kershaw? You get, you know, according to ADP, you get a pitcher upgrade with Kershaw over Darvish,

but you get in a shortstop downgrade, Bichet from Bogart. So it's Bogartz and Darvish or Bichet and Kershaw? I think I would do. Kershaw and Bichette. All right, this definitely makes a difference format for me. It definitely does.

I want the K-sealing in Roto and I want I want Bogarts more in points. What? Bogart's and Darvish are together, right? Yes. Okay. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Kershaw, Darvish, and Bogartz. That's... I'm comfortable that Kershaw is going to be a lot more helpful. yeah, I'm going to stick with a lot more helpful in the ratio stats in Roto and probably in wins as well. And Bichette has that stolen base upside that could, I mean, it's entirely possible we're talking about him as a second rounder next year. We're talking about Bogart's as a second round of this year. This is not even a question to me.

You don't love Xander Bogartz. I know. he's kind of a coward second rounder I don't love Kershaw either I know this is such an easy call for me I'm going with I'm going with Darvish and Bogart's so it's just so much easier for me to see Darvish being better than

Kershaw than it is for me to see Bichette being better than Bogart's I think you're taking a little bit of a leap with Bichette yeah but I mean it would take a bit of a leap with part

you know what I'm going to do you just to decide it Kershaw's less likely to have that maintenance IL stint in a shortened season so I'm going to take the Kershaw Bichette side good for you

Scott way to come around Chris shame on you he came around Chris was very decisive throughout this whole thing I was the one who had Bichette and Kershaw at the beginning yeah no I was the one who had to be talking

into it. Wait, Scott, you took Bichette and Kershaw? I did. That's what I said. Were you not listening? You just said, you just said that, wait, who is more likely to go on the IL? Kershaw or Darfur? I'm saying Kershaw is less likely to need a maintenance IEL stint. It's kind of short in the season. So I'm not sure Kershals is less likely or more likely to go on the IL than you Darvis at this point. You guys both suck. That's what I've determined. All right, fine. Darvish or Kershaw. Kershaw and Bichette It is Over, what's the,

what, give me the overunder for steals for Bichet. Where would you set it? Oh, I actually did this in my shortstop, uh, shortstop strategies piece. I think I said,

when the majors are minor, 19? Uh, I'm not sure how many had last. You had like 30 something two years ago. I'm going to say, I'm going to say 10 to 15, so I'll set the over under a 12.

Oh, that's nothing. That, then why would you, no, that's just a bigger case for Bogarts. That's not nothing. It's not that much. It's not enough. He stole 20 between the majors and the minors last year,

32 the year before, 22 and 110 games the year before. And he only played 106 games last season. So those 20 steals weren't 106 games. So I would say the upside is 25. Okay, I think Scott needs to raise that over under. I'm taking the over on 12 and a half. He didn't steal that many in the major.

though, Adam, and you know how poorly stolen base totals translate from the minors to the majors. I'm hopeful, but I'm not counting on more than a dozen. I mean, a dozen is a legitimate contribution. A dozen means you're probably getting more than you paid for with them. So I would be pretty pleased with that. I think people that are drafting Bobeshed are expecting more than 12 steals. He attempted eight and 46 games. And he was caught on four of them, right?

But that cut stealing fluctuates drastically from year and year. It's not a predictive stat. Okay. He was a lot better than that in the minors. I think he was over 75% in the miners. So he's on pace for about 12 then, right? A little more between 12 and 16? Right, but he was on pace for nearly 30 attempts.

Yeah. No. Okay. If he steals more, great. I'm not going to complain about that, but I want to hope for more than 12. All right. I'm going to take the over on, I'm hoping. I'm hoping for more than 12. I'm a little bigger, darling. So that will conclude our Boba Shet discussion here. Yeah, I'm so very disappointed in Chris and Scott, but I'm not disappointed in my Indochino suit. Haven't talked to you

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Okay. What are you watching on TV or on a streaming service right now? This is what everybody wants to know. Nothing. It was watching anything. My microphone was muted. Excuse me. The Great British Baking Show.

It's on Netflix. it is the most delightful way to spend your time. It is just like, you know how like all American cooking shows are like, we're gonna kill this person if they don't make a flop bay correctly. It's not like that at all. Everyone's just lovely. They drop a tent into like a meadow in the middle of like the British countryside. And there are like goats and sheep bleeding, bleeding with a tea.

Oh, they're, wow, that sounds great, Chris. Are they cooking them? Yeah, right. They're pies. And they're just making these like, frankly, often somewhat disgusting looking British desserts. But they're just like, it's just like everyone's so lovely. Everyone's so nice to each other. They like help each other finish their, their bakes.

The hosts are just delightful and they make lots. Lots of sexual innuendo about the bakes. Is it a contest or does everybody, you can win, you can win, I'm fine. It's a contest. But it's not like, you know, your cooking wasn't perfect. You're dead to me.

Get out of here. No mean judges. No, I feel like mean judges are the only things I enjoy about cooking competition, though. Hollywood is a little bit mean. But Mary Barry is delightful. She loves any dessert that has alcohol in it. Her name's Mary Berry.

How could she not be delightful? Paul Hollywood. And then there's, of course, Mel and Sue, the host. I cannot recommend this showing up, especially at a time like this, when you're probably feeling a little anxious. It's just, it's so lovely. Everyone is lovely.

Mel and Soup was her name? Mel and Sue. Two of them. Scott, what are you watching on TV or his streaming service? right now. I am still plotting through homeland and it has begun to feel kind of plotting. I must admit, I'm going to see it through because that's what I do,

but it's 2012. What? Welcome to 2012. Yeah, well, whatever. I usually don't watch shows in real time. Yeah, I just got through season five and it was it was it was it was it was it kind of hit a lull there the first three seasons were pretty gray the fourth season

still still pretty good but fifth kind of hit a lull we'll see how six and seven and eight goes I know heath still loves it he's he's the worst he's just he's so he's so stubborn he refuses to accept any criticism

about homeland and obviously the Ellen Adair episodes on Homeland are the best ones. I'm sure we can all agree. Yeah, I haven't gotten to her yet. That's that's I got to keep going. I gotta keep forging ahead. I, uh, yeah, I think it was season four I sort of didn't love.

There was there was a big like shift in story after season three. Right. It's one of those shows that really I think goes too far in reinventing it. every season so you're kind of taken out of it at first and you kind of have to it kind of has to

win you back in all over again. I get annoyed when shows do that. I love Scott's good. You don't have to change it that completely. I love your movie criticism, your movie and TV critiques. It's just, you just, you just, you notice things or you're bothered by things that nobody else is. It's very interesting. I would like to say that I'm a huge Narcos fan. The first three, seasons in Colombia are as good as it gets, especially season two. That was my personal favorite. Everybody seems to have their own personal favorite, but loved those three seasons. The first season of Narcos Mexico was kind of crap. If I hadn't been attached to the first three seasons, I wouldn't have bothered with Narcos Mexico. But season two of Narcos Mexico is very good so far.

So that's encouraging. And my wife's been watching Good Girls, which is really good. girls so there you go we just finished a rewatch or something i can't remember what it was i guess it didn't stick with me i guess it's probably some very excited for the digital release this week of cats you got okay no you're not let's let's send going to ironically watch cats might make some drinks while doing yeah please i don't i don't have ironically watching things how the other half on the other half lives, right? All right, let's talk baseball here. Katz is the conversation killer.

So let's have a rankings dispute. Chris wanted to do the whole Yo-a-Mongata thing again. Okay. So I said, tell me who you like Yo-a-Mongata better than in Scott's rank. Like, who would you rank ahead of based on Scott's rankings that Scott has Monkata behind? And you said, you like Moncada better than Mani Machado. And Scott- I can't imagine I'm going to get much pushback from Scott on this one.

Yep, jokes on you. I moved yon Moncada ahead of Mani Machado last night. Segment's done. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast. We'll be back tomorrow with another episode. The lovely episode with Joanne, with melon soup or whatever. Okay, so Scott, you moved Moncada ahead of Machado. But are you sure?

In both formats? No, not in both. Not in both. Just in Roto because of the... He's good in two scarce categories. And I'm only confident Machado excels in the one now. In points, I left Machado ahead because of the strikeout difference between the two.

All right, Chris, so how about this? Do you like DJ LeMayhew or Yoha Mancada? I don't think I've drafted any DJ LaMahue this year. I have drafted Yon Mankata, so I would say I would rather have Yon Mankata. Bam. Well, Scott, has Malmahue four spots ahead in Roto, and probably even more than that in points.

Now, of course, LeMayhew's second base eligible, but just looking at his third base rankings, Scott does like LeMayhew better than Moncada. So, Chris, tell Scott in a very lovely, polite, British way why he is wrong. I'm absolutely chapped that you would ask that. I think that's a thing they say. I don't know if this one's so much wrong. It's just, I don't know, it's weird because Scott is the by the breakout guy, but he's been more skeptical of Yohan Moncada relative to other breakouts. And, you know, in this case, like, DJ Lemayhew is someone who does have a more established track record.

Drink. that is DJ Mayhew definitely does have a more established track record but he never did what he did last year he hit for power in a way that he never had hit the ball harder than he ever had and you know it it's possible that those improvements stick and hitting in in Yankee Stadium it's a good place to hit it's not coarse field even for DJ Lemay Hughes all fields approach which does play well at Yankee So I would think we're probably going to see a regression of power. D.J.L.A. who's going to be a great source of batting average for sure.

But that is probably Excel. Wait a second. Did I just go in and out? I think my cat needs my microphone. Chris cuts out and I look over and there is just a gigantic, like furry butt in my face, basically. and it was his cat stepping out his computer apparently. Youngest cat, she hears me talking. Like when I'm in meetings at home, when I'm doing the podcast, she just hears me talking.

And she is not the affectionate cat. She's the cat who like, if you move too quickly, she runs away from you. But when I'm doing meetings, when I'm doing podcasts, that's when she's like, okay, I want you to love me right now. She forces me to pet her. You might have heard her on the podcast last week when I was, hosting and yeah she just decided to walk on my computer and we're all obviously working from home so not that that's a big adjustment for for me and scott but chris is not typically home

this frequently so yeah bear with us when our cats walk on our computers all right anyway you were saying uh so dj le mayhew um i don't buy the power breakout being real i think he's probably more of like even in the yankee standing probably more of a 15 to 20 homer guy he's not really stolen base standout anymore. So I really think he's going to be someone who is just a batting average guy. And while I think he will be better than Yon Mankata, Yon Mankata's quality of contact is so good and really always has been that once he cut the strikeout rate a little bit last year

and became a more aggressive hitter, it just really opened up his game. And so you look at, well, he hit, you know, he had a 27.5. percent strikeout rate. He's not going to hit 315 again. This is one situation. I think we're seeing something similar with Tim Anderson where the fantasy community is probably regressing too hard because he did have an expected batting average of 291. He does have a career babup of like 370 or something wild. It's one of the highest of all time. He's super athletic. He hits the ball really hard. And so you think, you know, Moncada is not undervalued just by me, but by

the community at large. Yes. That's interesting. And I think, you know, I brought up Tim Anderson. I think Tim Anderson is more undervalued by the community at large. But in this case, I think there's an expectation that Yon Moncada might go back to being a total batting average liability. But, you know, his expected batting average last year was 291.

He's quite athletic. He hits the ball hard. He hits the ball, you know, at the ideal launch angle quite frequently. His expected Wobon contact has always been pretty good. Last year it was elite. I just, I buy the skill set. I buy the pedigree and I buy the improvements that he made. And I even buy, you know, he's talked about wanting to run more this season.

He's kind of the, you know, when I was doing some research about Luis Robert, Rick Renterea, is that their manager still? Yes. I always not great with managers. He said, it's not like we're going to run a ton more, but him and Tim Anderson have the freedom to run when they want to. And so, you know, Munkata's dealt with a lot of hamstring injuries and he can stay healthy.

I think there's still the potential for him to be a 20 to 25 steel guy. I think the upside for Yohan Mankata looks a lot like what Trevor Story has done the last two seasons. Scott, you can your rebuttal, please, supporting LaMayhew over Moncada? Well, Moncada overachieved last year, statistically. He underperformed his expected stats. If he is the exact same player next year, he's probably going to be worse. And he already was much worse than DJ LeMayhew last year. So that's where I am with that.

Now, I, well, kind of 24 years old. It's the ball hard, top prospect pedigree. It's going to get better. Upside is definitely there. It's just a question of win. I feel like for him to live up to last year stats, for him to live up to his draft position in my mind, it requires another step forward from him, particularly.

I guess power is the main area where he clearly has room to gain something. still. But I also think there's just a good of a chance he takes a step back. I mean, it's, it's he's still walking a tightrope with that strikeout rate. It got a lot better. It was still bad. It could go back to being bad.

Even worse than bad, I mean. And then where is he? So I think DJ Lemayhew technically has less upside than Moncada. He has more realized upside. And he has a much higher floor, especially as the

leadoff hitter for the New York Yankees. I just, I don't know if I agree that, I mean, you have the per game stats. You can correct me if I'm talking out of school here. But I don't think the difference between the two of them was that great on a per game basis last year. You know, it's worth saying that Yon Mankata had almost 150 fewer plate appearances than DJ Lemayy did. Well, that's a big deal

because batting leadoff for the Yankees is going to get LeMayhew a lot of plate appearances. Now, I mean, batting toward the top of the order for the White Sox is also going to help for Moncada. To me, this is a really clear points versus roto discussion. I know the strikeout rate went down, but the walk rate's

also gone down two straight years from Moncada. He doesn't walk. And his play discipline is so bad that I'm taking LeMayu in points leagues. I'm taking a Mercada in Roto Leagues. We are just doing this 14-team draft that I always reference, but I just made a pick a couple hours ago.

It was hard for me to pass up Moncada in like round eight of a 14-team league. I mean, we're getting pretty deep. But I already had a third baseman. But I really wanted Moncada. But I was okay passing him up because it's a points league. He's got kind of a limited ceiling in a points league. LeMayhew was made for points leagues. So, I think it's a fun of thing.

LeMayhew was a monster in points leagues last year. It definitely wasn't close in that format. It probably was, see, what really makes the difference, and I know there was a game issue there, Moncada playing only 132, but runs in RBI just didn't compare to LaMayhew. LeMayhew's not going to have that many RBI next time. Yeah, he hit so well with runners in scoring position.

But then again, Moncada had a 400- 25 runs, you know. He could. So he averaged 3.7 points per game. Moncada averaged 3.2. That's a really big difference. Lamehue was fifth among third base eligible players behind Rendon, Bregman, Devers, and Aeronado. Mokada was, I believe, 14th among third base eligible players.

And I know that this isn't the exercise. We were just arguing about their merits among third baseman, but LaMahue is eligible at second base. Yeah, yeah. That's not insignificant. He's eligible at first base. base too, which could, I know a couple of my teams. I actually have him at first base. Lemayhew, I didn't intend to, but that's just how it turned out.

It is important. I just didn't really want to bring that into this discussion, but that is important for sure. And I do want to just say one more thing about Moncada. You know, you said his strikeout rate could go the opposite direction. The one thing that I will say in his defense in that regard is that it wasn't really, you know, we talk a lot about how stolen bases are about intent as much as talent. Strikeouts to a certain degree can be as well. And in Mokada's case, and I would say it's similar, I've made the comparison to Kevin Vigio in his rookie season.

I think the high strikeout rate in both cases was at least partially a result of just a passivity. He didn't actually make a ton more contact. His contact rate on outside of the strike zone pitches went up a little bit. his contact rate on strike zone pitches inside of the strike zone went up a little bit. Both were better than 2018, but he just swung a lot more. And he's the kind of guy who, you know, he hits the ball so hard. He's so athletic.

He's such a good baseball player. He's got all these tools that deciding to be more aggressive at the plate paid huge dividends for him because it allowed him to put those really elite, truly elite tools. into play. And so that's one reason why I'm not too worried about his strikeout rate going in the opposite direction. But that doesn't change the fact that he doesn't walk. Sure. I mean, well, he did, but now, like, it went from 12.6% to 10.3% to 7.2%. And his walk rate was partially a function of that passivity. Yeah. And, but you're also making him sound like he's, you know, uh, I don't know. He's a guy. Out of Berto Mondesie.

Yeah, that's the guy I was going to say. He's not that. 10%'s getting pretty low, though. Not that bad, but it's getting pretty low. All right, guys. Well, see, okay, you say it's a little bit below average. You mean league average? Yes.

Right, and then I'm going to say anything that's a little bit below league average is worse than that in fantasy baseball because we're eliminating bad hitters. I'm assuming anyway. I don't know about walk rate, but if you were a little bit below average in home runs, for league average, you'd be well below, you'd be well below average in fantasy baseball because we don't deal with crappy hiters who don't hit any home runs, you know?

Walks more than your King, DJ LaMayhew. Oh, snap. That's interesting, but obviously strikes out more too. He strikes out a lot more. Yeah. Like twice as off. All right, here we go. To the best and worst picks

according to average draft position, rounds one through five. Chris Towers, best and worst picks of round one. Yeah, so I think the best pick in round one, and this is going off Fantasy Pro's 80P, so this is, I'm basing this on a Roto League, and I think the best pick you can make in round one, certainly the best value in round one, is Trey Turner at number 11 overall. If he falls to you at that point, given the scarcity of steals, given the fact that he is, you know, a legitimate four category contributor, maybe a five category contributor, depending on if he hits, or he'd probably be a four category contributor. either way, if he has first or third. But you get him an 11th, you know, the guy who might lead the National League and Stolen Bases, the guy who has been in the conversation for Major League Leader and steals

every season of his career, basically. Wait a second. Trey Turner or Trevor's story? Trey Turner. Did he say Trevor? Oh, you said, oh. He said Trey Turner. Okay, you know why my alarm bells went off?

Because story's going ahead of Trey Turner. Yeah. And, yeah, they, but they're going back to back. So either one I think would work there, but you're saying Trey Turner. Okay. Yeah, I think it, Trey Turner going behind Trevor's story. Like, I don't think Trevor Story is a bad pick at number 10, but I would rather have Trey Turner, just because he has more potential to help you in the scarcer category. You can make up for power later on in a way that you can't really do that with stolen bases.

So that's why I think Trey Turner going 11th overall is the best value in the first round. Okay. And what's the worst? I think it's probably Nolan Aeronado. You know, going ninth overall, and it's not a knock against Nolan Aeronado. He's awesome. I just don't think there's that much of a difference between him and Freddie Freeman, who's going 16th overall and who we'll talk about when we get to the second round.

I just think it's sort of just falling back on a guy that we know, but not taking into account the fact that in this era of baseball, what Trevor Story and Trey Turner and, you know, even Jose Ramirez can do, probably make them more valuable or at least scarcer than Nolan Aeronado. Scarcer, yes. I suppose if you draft Nolan Aeronado, you just have to commit yourself to taking a Steele's specialist at some point, because it's not just that Aeronado isn't a steals guy. It's that he's a terrible steels guy.

He's a zero. Yeah, maybe zero to three steals a year, basically. but he's been a top 12 hitter in points leagues and a top 10 hitter in Roto leagues five straight seasons. It's hard to, you know, it's hard to be disappointed with any of these picks in round one. I don't have a problem with Aeronado, but I would take Story and Turner ahead of Aronado in Roto, not in points, and I'm sure Scott agrees, right? I think you can make an argument that Juan Soto might be the worst value in the first round, too.

He's going to overall. Yeah, I was going to mention him. He's the only guy in the first round who has to get better to justify that cost. For me, you know, it might be Lindor, honestly, because he hits his batting average. Okay, as a hitter, comparing Lindor to the rest of the first round hitters,

I think Turner is the only one who has a lower OPS or who had it last year. I think Lindor is slightly overrated. He's great at runs, but RBI's in batting average. he's not going to measure up with the other first round hitters for the most part. That's fair. Scott, any thoughts?

Yeah, I'm not sure I totally agree. I feel like Lindor, we haven't seen his best case scenario yet. I feel like his batting average, maybe it could have gone better the past couple years, and that he's probably closer in that area to Trevor's story than you're giving him credit for. I feel like they're almost from the 5 by 5 context,

they're almost identical and expected output. But story feels not quite as safe as me. Just as Lindor not quite as safe to me, I think is what I was trying to say. And, you know,

just because of the strikeout rate, such a big difference there. Okay, Lindor just to add one thing though he had a 335 OVP last year so if you're turning batting average into OBP then I think you've got a

you've got a little you have to re-evaluate Lindor IMO in my opinion so look it's round one all those picks are great we're nitpicking obviously Chris round two I think my favorite picking round two is probably with Freddie Freeman who we talked about

before I just think there's a pretty good chance he ends the season as of top five hitter. The elbow concerns, the fact that that was still an issue even after off-season surgery, was a little concerning, but it seemed like he got over that. And I just think you're looking at one of the best bets for batting average in the league, probably going to hit 35 home runs if he stays healthy, a ton of runs in RBI. And he is, unlike Nolan-Rano, he has been a non-zero in stolen bases. I think it was six last year, five, 10 the year before. That's not

huge, but that helps. And, you know, he is more athletic than a lot of the guys who put up similar hitting stats. It's not out of the question to me that he's better as a hitter than Nolan Aronado this year and steals eight bases. Freddie Freeman, we're talking about here. Who's the worst pick? I think it's got to be Fernando Tatis. It's just there's a chance we're talking about him as a first round pick next year. I think there's an equally good chance we're looking at him more in like the fourth round next year. I just think his is an incredibly volatile risk, a volatile profile, a lot of swing and miss. The underlying numbers didn't quite back up what he did.

They said he was more like a 260, 270 hitter, I believe. And so if that batting average does come back down, the one thing he does have going for him, I think the power is legit. You know, he did have a very high barrel rate. He is very athletic. So I think he can be a valuable power steel speed combination. But even that, the ground ball rate was really high. He had a lot of balls on the ground more than you'd expect for somebody with his power.

So even that's not entirely worry-free. Yeah, I think the thing with him is pretty common for a young player. He's just, I think there was some inconsistency. in his profile. He would hit the ball really, really hard sometimes. He would hit the ball at an ideal launch angle sometimes. And then other times he would, you know, hit weak grounders. And there's just, I think there's room for the skill set to grow, but I think the skill set has to improve for him to justify this cost. You know, he was the second best player on a per game basis in Roto Leagues last year.

So by that measure, he's a steal. Right. So this is Fernando Tatis. He hit 317 with 22 homers and 16 steals in 84 games. He had a 410 Babbitt and Tatis had a 31.9 home run to fly ball rate. Both of those are ridiculous. He strikes out a lot, 29.6% K rate. Scott, do you agree? Because I do not, I do not agree. I do not think that he is the worst pick of this round. I think Steven Strasberg is the worst pick of round two. It's fair. Scott, do you think Tatea's the worst pick of round two?

I think he is. It's understandable, given the demand for steals in this format, but I think it's the pick I'm least likely to make at this price, especially since the two players going after him, I think have a case of being the best pick of the round. Jose Ramirez, who, if you want the steals, just go for him. I mean, he seems even more likely of being a top five overall player next year, considering he just was in 2018.

And then Anthony Rendon is the one going right after that. So I love the value of most of the players in this round two range here. I feel like, I feel like round two is mostly first round types who just got pushed out because there's so many first round types. and I mean Alex Bregman the fact he goes in round two that's insane to me because that's he might be the third best with the bat

like if we're taking steals out of the equation if we're taking the way they're inflated in this format out of the equation he might be the third best player uh in fantasy and then behind Trouton Yelich if that wasn't clear and even that it even if it even if leaving Steele's in, I don't think he's necessarily nothing as far as Steeles go.

I think double digits, there's a very good chance he gives you double digit steals. You know who may not be far off from Bregman who's going even later if we're just kind of eschewing steals, J.D. Martinez. He had a down season last year and a down season for J.D. Martinez. He still hit, what, 304, 36 homers, 105 RBI. And that was with a, weird sort of power drought early on in the season when the underlying numbers were still excellent. And I think he had an OPS above, yeah, he had 965 OPS, 18 homers in the last 67 games. So that's close to, if not a little bit over a 40 homer pace with, you know, a huge batting average.

Jady Martinez was the number 10 outfielder, number 22 hitter in fantasy. And that's kind of crazy when you look at his numbers. 304, 36 homers, 105 RBIs, 98 runs, only two steals. A lot of good hitters there. I don't see any justification for taking Tatis over Jose Ramirez. I think it's just, then they're going back to back. But I think Scott laid it out. It's a clear choice.

When you start to get to Rendon, though, you look at last year, Rendon, is the first year with more than 26 home runs. So if he goes back to being the player he was before 2019, Rendon, he's not a second round pick in a Roto league. He is in a points league, maybe even a first round pick. I'm not sure I agree. For a surefire 300 batting average, a ton of runs scored and presumably RBI high too with where he's going to hit in that lineup.

He's, yeah, he's, you'll take 25 homers. You'll take 25 home runs and five steals. 25 home runs and five steals to be. Don't forget about the other categories, Adam, especially batting. Don't forget about the other category. He's got that batting average early. Yeah, but I mean, well, let's see what he was in 2017. I don't have what he was as a hitter.

He missed time, which is something to also consider. He's had some health issues. He wasn't even a top five third baseman in 2018. Granted, it was a sick position. Okay, but he had 24 home runs in 136 games, and he stole two bases. I mean, you don't get points for doubles in Roto. He's a doubles machine. So I just, you know, I think that

I don't think he's a second round pick if he's the old Anthony Rendon I haven't been taking him in the second round. One of the things about Rendon, though, is it's an unbelievably high floor. He's great, I love him. There are not many players, like, you're not going to miss. I would rather have him than Fernando Tatis in the second round

because you're not going to miss on Anthony Rendon. There's just, unless he gets hurt and he's no bigger an injury risk than Fernando Tatis. There's no way he's going to be a bad value, and I think there's a pretty decent chance. Like Tatis, the stolen basis should make him valuable no matter what, but his profile worries me. It should, but he's 21. Rendon's 30, or it will be in June.

So, yeah, he's 30. 30's not always great. Okay, now apparently I'm the down guy on Anthony Rendon. Don't like doing that. I only do one more round, Chris, so we can read some emails. Best and worst picks of round three, according to average draft position. This is honestly might be my least favorite round. I really don't love drafting in this round.

There's a lot of guys who I tend to avoid. I don't want Pete Alonzo that much. Glaber Torres and erodo at this price, I don't love. I think the worst pick, and I think Scott's probably going to agree, is probably Javier Baez at 33. He's just, he's really good, obviously. But, like, he's not a standout and stolen bases anymore, and I don't think that's coming back.

He's not really a standout in power, which is weird given the expectations for him. The RBI pace from 2018 is not coming back. He's just, he's like a B plus everywhere. And that's a really good player. I just don't know if I love drafting him at 33rd, given some of the guys going behind him. It's a bad round.

Remember, we had an email about this, how sucky round three is. Yeah, and it sort of makes sense, right? Scott mentioned there were a lot of first-round caliber hitters still available in the second round, and a lot of first-round caliber players in the second round. and then the third round is kind of no man's land

it's a lot of guys who are coming off one great season but don't have the track record or some older guys who kind of run the risk of torpedoing your season if they take that step back so it's it's just sort of no man's land

for drafts this year I don't really mind bias though because I think B plus is across the board ends up being an A player or an A minus player and he's done

it two years in a row I think Glaber is probably my least favorite pick but I also really don't like Starling Marte

in round three Marte just it's just the stolen bases you know but he is coming off his best year as a hitter changing lineups changing parks

it's not necessarily a park downgrade but it's probably not a huge upgrade It is a better lineup, but I think a lot of it comes down to how much he's going to be allowed to run. Will he be a 30-steel guy and really stand out there? I don't know. Remember, I did that.

I looked into that, and it seemed like, it seemed like Terry Levello does not like to run that much. So it wasn't clear-cut. But Gerard Dyson was one of the examples I used. Gerard Dyson averaged 38 steals per 162 games in two seasons with Arizona. In his previous six seasons, he averaged 49 steals per 162 games. So that's 11 more steals in a lot fewer plate appearances too. Right, but that's the thing. That steals a lot fewer played appearances with the Diamondbacks, you mean?

No, he had more played appearances with the Diamondbacks. So yeah, that's what I'm saying is that he started more games. So what? What? I don't understand just because he came in as a pinched runner, you expect him to be more of a base dealer there? Well, no, it's just he only had one plate appearance per game, or one stolen base opportunity per game. Okay, so if you just did it on per plate appearance, he had 38 steals per 567 plate appearances with Arizona. in the six seasons prior, he had 49 steals per 477 plate appearances, nine more steals in 90 fewer plate appearances in the six seasons before the two he spent

with Arizona. Right, but that's again because he had, he's not necessarily someone who's stolen base opportunities are increased all that much by playing every day because he's just not a good hitter. Oh, whatever. it seems like he ran less. Paul Goldschmidt ran a lot less. A.J. Pollack ran a lot less.

You could say there were reasons for that in their careers. I think it's inconclusive. I do too. But the thing is with Marte, it's like he's not such a base dealer that he should be going with a 30th pick in the draft. That's what it's not like he steals 50. It's like he steals 40 bases. He was a top 10 pick in one of the TGFBI leagues.

I just don't get that. And I don't buy the production from last year either. You know? And 23 home runs? Yeah, that was a great year for him. That's a crap year now. It's only 132 games, but he's also always hurt. You're not going to see me having much Starlighting Marte.

I think I haven't, I don't think I've drafted him at all this year. There are other stolen base guys that I'd rather have. I agree with you, Glaber Torres and Pete Alonzo are the two other guys in this round who I just, I don't find myself targeting in this range. much. Who do you target? The league Tor is in

is the auction league that we did and it was because he went like for $15 or something ridiculous. Who do you target

in round three? Who's the best pick? By the way, Scott, I don't know if I mentioned this. Scott had to pop off, I think.

So we're scottless for the moment. Patrick Corbin is probably Patrick Corbyn and Jose Altovae are probably my two most drafted players. I'm just not too

concerned about the sign stealing in general and especially with Al Tuvae, you know, the evidence that we do have on that suggests that Altuve didn't really receive too much benefit from it. Some cynics say that it was because he had a buzzer or something. No, it's BS. Give me a break. Everybody benefited from it. Just use common sense. Everybody benefited. If you knew the signs were coming, you benefited from it. No, but that's the thing is that he got fewer bangs than any other player.

Okay. Well, he's still got some bangs, but I like Altuve 2. I've been making a point to get him. And then Patrick Corbin is, if I get him as my number two starting pitcher, I'm thrilled. If I get him as my number one, I'm fine with it. I don't think, if you look at what him and Steven Straussberg have done over the last two seasons, in terms of all their rate stats, strikeout per nine, walk per nine, whip, ERA, they're basically identical. and Patrick Corbyn has thrown like 70 more innings over the last two seasons. So it just kind of seems silly for Stephen Strasbourg to be going almost two rounds ahead of him. Let's reach emails of fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. This is from David.

Dear Jim Ryan and Michael, your Friday of the 13th episode game of trying to think of scary name puns for players played out almost exactly like the pilot episode of The Office when Jim Ryan and Michael think of dessert puns. Chris is Jim was clearly the most enthusiastic about the game and kept ripping off good ones. Scott, who is Ryan, didn't really care that much but still held his own. And Adam, oh Adam, you were a spot-odd Michael Scott taking a long, awkward pause before mumbling

pudding, pudding, pudding. I mean that in the best way possible. It was a great show. Thanks for giving me something fun to listen to during my quarantine. If you haven't seen the office, Scott, I highly recommend at least watching the pilot. Scott watched. Scott loves the office. He's always talking about the office. That was my favorite part of this email. Do you watch?

Yeah, I don't love the office. Yeah, you should. There's no way you could not love the office. It is so good. Look, people get mad at me for it, but one, Jim's the worst. Who? Jim.

Jim is an awful person. Now you're wrong. And two, and I have a theory that every person who thinks they're the gym of their office, Keith, is actually the Andy of their office. And also it's just, it's a really mean show. Everyone's very mean to each other. I don't like it. It makes me feel awkward.

I don't like cringe comedy anymore. You probably like the British version. That's the, like, I don't want, I don't really like curb. I don't really like the British office at all. It's just like cringe comedy. It makes me, it just, it makes me feel uncomfortable. I, I, nah. It's, look, the first four seasons are really good.

The best. The best. The best moment, the most cringeworthy moment of the office was when Michael gets set up on a blind date by Pam with Pam's landlord or somebody in her building. And they meet at a coffee shop and they meet at Starbucks or a coffee shop or something. And Michael sees her and he's not attracted to her. So he pretends to be someone else. She's like, Michael? And he's like, oh, no, no.

And then the barista has his order and calls his name. He's like, Michael. Michael, and then the rest of the day is so awkward. And the whole time, you're just uncomfortable. The office makes you so uncomfortable, but it's great. That's just that, like, Benihana Christmas. Yeah. It's just, like, I feel it in my gut.

But I know I'm going to get a lot of angry emails and tweets about this. People are very defensive of their office. It's one of the best. Okay, so next one is from Ryan and St. Louis. This dear Jack, Ronald, and Wendy. Oh. Yeah, I know that. What?

It's fast food mascots. Yeah, good. Good for you. What you said on Friday about being important now is so right. I hopped on board the FBT train in 2012, and I've listened to email, tweeted you guys on the morning of my wedding with questions, literally while my wife was in labor. No matter what's going on in the world for one hour a day,

you guys talk baseball and it helps. So, yeah, this is currently what hell must be like. My question is, what is your one Kodak moment over? the years. Like, what stands out? From the podcast? I guess so. Oh, Kodak Moment from the Podcast. I don't really have my... I read this email. Kodak Moment for the Podcast? Yeah, I'm not sure. It's so sad to say this, but what comes to

mind is doing a live football event and meeting the listeners. Always enjoyed that. Yeah, I mean, the biggest thing for me is just, it's really, interacting with people. And, you know, especially when we get the, I mentioned this, I think, on the last episode I was on, but, you know, when we get those emails from people talking about, you know, they listen to the podcast in difficult times and it helps them get through it. That's the stuff that, you know, like we're, we're so unbelievably lucky to get to do this for a job that, you know, it's that. It's just interacting with our fans. Yeah, it's awesome. It is really awesome.

Did Tom Brady sign yet? No, not yet. Sean from Birmingham. 12 team head to points league. Didn't realize it was a daily league until after the draft. There are, oops, there are five starting pitcher spots

and three relief pitcher spots. I loaded up on SPRP guys. I have Carrasco, Lazardo, Arias, Hauser, and Josh James, but I don't have any closers and only Joe Jimenez is on waivers. With it being daily and not weekly, I feel as though the sparps are not as important

since you can't just use them in SP spots since you can just use them in SP spots when you want and all you're really doing is losing out on closer points. There's a 12 SP start max but that would be hard to hit with just the SPs so you could use the RP and the RP spots to get the advantage with closers. Should I just roll with it or should I try to get some closers?

If I get closers, who should I trade or drop? I think it's really hard to try to shift that midstream because closers are going to be really expensive. Maybe you try to add Joe Jimenez. Maybe you should be more aggressive. No, you trade some pitching. Trade some pitching for

closers. I mean, trade... I just don't think you're going to get the value you need. Why wouldn't you trade Carasco for Yates? I mean, if you could trade Carasco for Yates, sure, I'm just not sure you could. Who's the... He's right, though, in a daily league

I've never played in a daily points league. You want some closers because, yeah, you can just use all those RP eligible SPs in SP spots. But who would you drop? I mean, it would have to be either Houser or James. And no, I wouldn't do it for Jimenez. He sucks. Yeah, that's the hard thing, is that

I like the potential for Houser and James to be must-start guys. And I'm not necessarily sure a lot of those closers are going, the kind of closers you're going to be able to get on waivers or in trade, I would rather go into the season with the guys that I have and, you know, see what happens because there's going to be so much closer churn. Yeah. That you'll be positioned to take advantage of that since other people already have closers who, you know, they might not be willing to drop yet.

Next email says, hey, yo-yo, Eloy, and Lubbob. Oh, yeah, Lou Bob. I get it. Oh, Lewis Robert. Yeah. Moncada, Eloy, and this is from Matt, by the way, 60 miles west of the best team in Chicago,

which is not the Cubs. I'm starting my first year of a 10-te-to-head categories league. I've never played season long, only DFS, and this league is a 20-category league. Oh, God. Is this crazy?

I don't know a lot about season long, but I've never heard of this many categories. What do you think? It's too many, and it's going to be, like, without specific, knowing what the categories are, I think you probably

treat it like a points league. Yes. Because you're probably going to have like doubles or total bases and strikeouts and locks and the things that are going to be counted in a points league that aren't in a rhodo.

So that would be my suggestion. And with that said, two players come to mind who would be bad in this format. Glaber Torres, based on last year, right? If they change their profile, that's one thing. But Glaber Torres and Max Muncie.

Now, Muncie walks. So if walks is a category, you know, then he could be good. Their OBP is going to be good. But they don't steal bases. Their batting average isn't good. They don't double. They don't triple. They just Homer.

Muncie homers and walks. So you do have to take a look at a player sort of like that. And don't even worry about steals. Like, if you don't want to focus on steals, don't even worry about it. Just don't worry about specialists. In this form, Yeah. From Chris.

Dear Barr, Cliff, Ledger and Hembray. Keith. I took Scott's recommendation to Hart. I went all in on starting pitching in my recent 12-team Roto draft and I ended up with these pitchers. DeGrom,

Kluber, Bauer, Burrios, Price Carrasco, who's going to be an RP, Boyd, Keller, Gosman, RP,

scubal, and Whitley. DeGrom, Klob, Bauer, Berrios, Price, Carrasco, Boyd, Keller, etc. Did I take the strategy too far? I don't think so. It doesn't sound like you... It sounds like you invested... Like, Carrasco was your number six starting pitcher, right?

Really, his number one reliever, but yes. That probably means he was like the 11th round pick. That's heavier than I usually go at starting pitcher, but it doesn't seem outrageous to me. Actually, I think your bench kind of stinks. If you don't have Carrasco as an SP, people are split on Matt Boyd. So I'm not a big Boyd fan,

but he does get a lot of strikeouts. I am. What's that? I'm starting to buy in. The change-up and curveball looked really good in spring training. Okay. So then that's all you need. I mean, if you have a six pitcher,

you'll play the waiver wire. But Keller, Gossman, I'm not sure what you're going to get from that. Maybe. You never know. It's fine. Those are interchangeable parts. You'll find something there.

DeGrom, Kluber, Bauer, Berrios, Price, Carrasco, Boyd. It's a very good pitching staff. You did not take it too far. Because it sounds like it might have only taken one pitcher with your first four picks based on this. Kluber is number two pitcher. Okay. Thanks, everybody. We will come back tomorrow with another edition.

The best and worst ADP for the next few rounds. See how many we can get to? And more of your emails at Fantasy Baseball at CDS. dot com for chris and scottomatto see you