Fantasy Baseball Today - Lessons Learned in 2025! Trey Yesavage & Cam Schlittler ARE STUDS! (10/7 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: October 7, 2025

Trey Yesavage just mowed down the Yankees (2:25)! ... Cam Schlittler made history against the Red Sox (10:57). ... Roki Sasaki, the closer (17:00)? ... News (23:05): Jackson Chourio left NLDS Game 1 with a hamstring injury but returned for Game 2. ... Let's get into lessons learned from this past season, starting with pulled air rate (31:35). ... Not everything is a lesson (35:26). ... How should we be drafting pitching (43:50)? ... If you play in multiple leagues, you probably want to diversify your picks (50:55). ... Accept obvious value in drafts (54:14). ... Be careful with trading in redraft leagues (58:34). ... Be open-minded about early-season breakouts (1:02:09). ... Lastly, regression doesn't follow a schedule (1:06:57). Subscribe to our YouTube channel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://sptfy.com/QiKv⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow FBT on TikTok: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow our FBT team on Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@FBTPod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CPTowers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CBSScottWhite⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@Roto_Frank⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join our Facebook group at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. So what did we learn this season? Let's find out. Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Tuesday, October 7th.

I am Frank Stamphill joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, we will reveal our biggest lessons learned. But first, I want to talk about two young pitchers who dominated in their lone starts here in the playoffs. Chris, I know you're a big fan of the movie. A star is born. We might have two stars on our hands here. Trey Savage and Cam Schlitla.

Let's start with Trey Savage here, who just mowed down the Yankees in game two of the ALDS. Oh, yeah! Got to get that in. 5 and a third, no-hit innings, one walk. 11 strikeouts here. 4ya Savage had 18 whiffs on 78 pitches, 11 on the splitter, 5 on the slider, 2 on the fastball,

45% CSW, only 78 pitches. Honestly, this start could have been even better. That splitter was just absolutely disgusting. We now have a 4-star sample, which is still very, very small, I realize that, but 3 of the 4-starts have looked great. Trey Savage started the season. He only 22 years old, by the way. started the season in A ball,

pitch four different levels, and now finds himself destroying the Yankees in the playoffs. So this is the type of performance, especially if he builds off this and has multiple starts that are very good, that can hike up an ADP for next season. What do you guys think about Trae Savage? I saw a tweet that was like,

it was something like, here's a partial list of the teams that Trey Savage has wins against this year. Pensacola Blue Wahoos, Hartford Yard Goats, New York Yankees in the playoffs. Yeah, that's pretty good. It's pretty good. I would say Treyia Savage is everything that I hyped Jonah Tong to be.

And that I hyped Jonah Tong to be a lot, you know? And it's kind of fitting to make that comparison for a couple of reasons. One is both of their arm angle is like 63, 64 degrees, which is extremely, which is extremely, extremely high, and it makes an unusual look. The difference is Jonah Tong, I'm sorry, Trey I Savage has at least one killer secondary in that splitter. And Jonah Tong, it's not clear that he does. And so that's why we're seeing Trey Yavage carry over his terrific minor league strikeout rates to the majors. And he actually, even ahead of Tong,

Trey Yassavage led all upper-level minor leaguers in strikeouts per nine innings. Both of them were over 14, but Yassavage was a little higher. And like I said, we're seeing it carry over because that splitter is just so filthy, particularly coming at it from such a high arm ankle. So there are going to be control issues. We saw it pop up in a second major league start. there are going to be build-up issues in terms of taking on a bigger workload. That's something every, that's a big hurdle.

Every young pitcher has to clear, but we didn't see a savage work particularly deep into games in the minors this year. So that's probably the biggest issue for him moving forward, evaluating him for 2026. The average right around four innings per start. Yeah, and he was throwing the no-hitter in this playoff game and they still pulled him after five in a third inning. And actually the Yankees mounted. Probably wasn't that serious of a comeback, but they scored a lot of runs off the Blue Jays bullpen once the Yassavage came out.

So those are big hurdles. That's part of the reason why relative to the hype, his fantasy value may be suppressed. But I've been impressed with Trey Yavage and think however long it takes him to clear that hurdle of providing length, they'll be really good. Yeah. So, so far.

he has thrown a combined 1, 17 and a third innings. That's across the minors, the majors, where he made three starts at the end of the regular season, and then his loans start here in the playoffs. And I guess anything can happen, but it looks like the Blue Jays are going to move on and he'll make a couple more starts at least, I would think there. So, you know, if he gets up for Yankees down just yet. I, uh, thanks, Scott. So, but I, look, basically the point I was going to get at is if he throws around 120 this

season. I think we can kind of, a barring injury, expect like 150 for next year from Trey Yassavage. Who would you rather have for 2026? Trey Yassavage or he just got pulled from the game, but Jacob Mizirowski, we were all just watching before we went live. Mizzirowski obviously had a ton of hype when he got up to the majors was ranked a little higher than Yus Savage at the beginning and midpoints of this season, but obviously I think faded a bit after he came back from that shin injury. And, you know, for all the crazy stuff that Mizairowski has, you know, the 104 mile hour fastball or whatever, I think Yassavage had a higher strikeout rate than him and the minors. Yeah. Yeah. Significantly. It was like 41% for Yusavage to 31% for Ms.

Rowski. I think it's easily Yassavage. Because I think, Yes, Savage's biggest issue with working deep into games, I mean, Mizorowski shares it. Five of his final eight appearances were less than five innings. And he had a 606 ERA in them. His control issues are even more pronounced than Yesavages. And he did, sort of like Jonathan. It's not clear Mizorowski has a great secondary option.

So fastball's great. And look, I think there's a lot of upside there. But I think, I think Yosavage is just. just all he really needs to accomplish is just the typically built up process that every young pitcher has to accomplish, which isn't a given, but

it's typical. Mizorowski has more hurdles to clear than that. Ultimately, when it comes to Tong and Mizorowski, you savage, Schlitler, I think McLean is probably going to be well ahead of those guys.

Schlittler might actually be as well. Spro, who are some of the other young guys that got called up at the end of the year? I'm sure there were a couple other than I'm forgetting. It seemed like we had a ton of huge call-ups at the end of the season. Peyton Tolly, Connolly Early. Yeah. Parker Messick. Parker Messick.

You get lower. Luis Morales. Luis Morales. Bobba Chandler. I think ultimately, I'm not going to say I'm going to be out on whoever's most expensive because I think you do. need to have some exposure to these talented young arms but with all of those guys and there's so many of them i mean we just named what 10 of them i probably want like three of them on my rosters next season and so it might be one of the early round guy the earlier guys which i i would

guess will be burns belongs in that discussion burns burns burns might be my favorite of this group i know it's been a while but remember four straight starts i believe with 10 strikeouts, not a lot of guys at any level of baseball do that. My favorite stat here, as far as that goes, Chris, is Chase Burns was up for eight, was it eight appearances or eight starts? Well, I think it was eight. It was eight. He appeared eight times. Four of them double-digit strikeouts, that is more than Paul Skeen, more double-digit

strikeout games than Paul Skeens has had in his entire career. Yeah, that's, and also part of that is just burn. was among this group the best coming into the season I don't think he did anything the best prospect coming into the season I don't think he did anything to lose that stature so among that group if Burns isn't the most expensive great I'll just take chase Burns a lot but what I'll probably do is mix in one of the earlier round guys which I think will be a savage Burns McLean McLean Mizirowski those guys will probably all go top 150 probably not top 100 but probably top 150 I would guess for

all of them might get close Mike get close the top Um, mid top 120. Yep. Take one of them, maybe two. And then get a couple bites at the apple with Connolly Early, who I think looked really good and Parker Messick and Luis Morales, who came on really strong at the end of the season. Um, that's probably the way I'll approach it. But a lot of interesting young pitchers heading into 2026. I'm still not used to saying 2026.

That I've typed it probably 80 times in the past like month and a half. and I'm still 2025 is next year, right? There's no way 2026 is next year. I'll get there in some point in the next two months, I guess. Let's quickly just run through what Cam Schlittler did. If we travel way back in time to last Thursday in a decisive game three in the wild card round against the Red Sox, Schlittler threw eight shutout innings with 12 strikeouts to zero walks.

He had 18 whiffs on 107 pitches, 11 of those on the fastball, five on the sinker. The first pitcher to go eight scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts and zero walks, in MLB postseason history. That seems impossible. There have been so many postseason games, but Cam Schlittler stands alone. It was really just the fastball and sinker, man.

They accounted for 70% of his pitches. I still have questions about the secondaries, but if the fastball is this good, like maybe it doesn't matter. I don't know, but go for it. So Cam Schlittler has cleared the hurdle of pitching deep into games. He went eight innings in this playoff start,

struck out 12. his final regular season start, remember, two hits and seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts. I'm going to be honest, did not remember that. And then he had, let's see, four of his, so counting that seven innings start at the end of the season, five of his final eight starts. Yeah, and six of his last 10 went six plus, yeah. Okay. So 90 pitches or more in nine starts.

starts total, including the postseason, 89 or more and 11 of 15. And he had more than a strikeout per inning each of those times he went six or more, more than a strikeout per inning. Usually it looks like two or more strikeouts than innings. So, like, he was, Cam Schlittler was actually providing the length you'd expect of a front line major league pitcher, which is very impressive for somebody who was called up. in the middle of the year, like a rookie and not even a rookie for the full season. Very impressive. He's already cleared that hurdle.

And in some ways, you know, I don't want to overthink it. Like he's, he is giving you the volume you want. He's dominant with it. Don't overthink it. But same as you, Frank. I look at the actual breakdown of the pitches. And I'm like, okay, it's a good fastball. It's uncommon to see.

a fastball have the highest whiff rate of any of a pitcher's pitches. And it's a great whiff rate for a fastball, but like you want there to, sort of like Spencer Strider, when he had a great fastball, he had this slider that had 50% whiff rate, yeah. Right. I think the biggest rate on the slider was like 20 percentage points higher than the fastball, as good as the fastball was. And so what happens if Cam Schlittler, you know,

if he's thrown 97 instead of 98, how, how, which is what he was. throwing in AAA. Okay. That's the he he averaged 95 miles per hour last year. 96.6 at AAA before his promotion this year. 98 at the majorly level. That is also just like I don't know how much to put on that, but that kind of

velocity jump is worrisome. Even for he he's like massive, he's like 68 something like that. Yeah, he's like 6566, but yeah, he's big. So like, you know, there's, there's, guess something, but like that kind of gigantic velocity jump in a very short amount of time. Maybe he was just holding back. Maybe he was always capable of sitting 98. But I'm a little worried.

And I think just in general, you'd like to see one pitch with a whiff rate over 30%. That's not to say he can't be good without it. But, you know, even the fastball, 28% whiff rate's really good. But that's not like Luis Castillo was at like 33% a couple years ago. You know, like that that's a very, very good mark, but it's not necessarily like tippy, tippy top of the league as well. So I think there are a few concerns here with Cam Schlittler, but on the whole, I think he's got to be in that first tier of the second year pitchers. Or I guess some of them will be rookies. I think he's probably, except for maybe Chase Burns.

I think Cam Schlittler probably earned the right to be drafted tops among them. You put him at a home home to MacLean? I think so. I mean, as good as these last two starts were. And like there is a flag there, a potential red flag there with is the secondary arsenal good enough. But that's, I want to stress and this will kind of play into one of my lessons learned that we'll get to later. Like that shouldn't be a deal breaker. Because the way the league is trending, pitchers tweaking their arsenals, adding, adding,

Pitches, subtracting pitches very easily. And so it wouldn't take much for him to come up with one secondary pitch that will put less pressure on his fastball to be as good as it's been. And I would bet on him doing that. So I don't, I guess I'd just say when you're approaching Cam Schlittler for 2026, I would not approach him saying, look how good he was as a rookie. imagine how much better he could do. I would say, look how good he was as a rookie. Hopefully he'll be 85, 90% of that. All right, some other quick playoff updates here.

Since we last spoke, the Padres, Reds, Guardians, and Red Sox were all eliminated in the wild card round. As mentioned, the Blue Tays are currently whooping my Yanks, 2-0. The Dodgers lead, the Phillies, 2-0 as well. Roki Sasaki picking up saves in each of those wins. He's also closed out three different games in the playoffs. And he's looked ridiculous out of the bullpen. So it will be interesting to see how this influences next season. Is this something that Roki Sasaki can carry over into next year as a starter?

Or is he so good in the playoffs as a reliever that they just use him as their closer next year? There was a piece on ESPN.com on Monday, I believe, about how they rebuilt him. And goes really in depth in their process. That's a really good article. You should read it. Jeff Passon. Yeah, they found some mechanical things. There were some, I'm not, I don't, I'm not a.

It had to do. Kinesiologist or whatever, so I don't really understand. But like, it was something about the, the way his pelvis was dipping during his delivery. And they got him to stay back a little more. And, like, immediately his next start, his velocity was up like four miles per hour. but it doesn't nothing in that article sounded like they don't think he's going to be a starter moving forward everything sounded like he's going to be a starter or at least he's going to get that chance i was looking for that that is the main thing i wanted to know is somebody who writes about fantasy

baseball and i didn't see an indication one way or another okay i it gives me a little more hope that since they tied it to a mechanical issue that it's not just okay he picked up more velocity because he's throwing shorter spurts and so he's airing it out more. You know, like there was an actual mechanical thing they fixed there that that improved the velocity. And that, I think, at least opens the door to try him out as a starter.

But they invested a lot in their bullpen this offseason and came away with no closer out of it. And, like, if he, especially since they have a ton of starting pitcher depth, if he just becomes this lockdown ninth inning guy, and they were able to salvage his rookie season that way. I could see them saying like that's enough of a win for us given our abundance of pitching riches. I'm not ruling that out. I don't know.

I'm just speculating because we don't have any kind of official statement on it. So I guess what I saw was this was Passing saying even if Sasaki will transition back to starting pitching next year. year he's a reliever this month that that i guess that's the only thing that's really in there so i was trying to interpret what that meant frank and i were talking about it when you weren't on him like does he mean even if is an even though yeah because even though is more definitive even if yeah i don't know but it's possible this could happen so it's snell yamamoto glass now otani emmishian i think he's he's earned that right to be in the rotation next year right he's got to he deserves it um Kurtzell's retiring, so he's out of the picture.

And they'll probably go six-man a lot, too. Yeah, I would think it's going to be six-man by default. They have the flexibility with Otani. They get that extra the extra pitcher spot on their roster. It's not an extra roster spot, but they get an extra pitcher. Gonsolin is probably out until late summer. Gavin Stone, who knows? I don't think you can bet on him.

Yeah, I think he's going to be in the rotation. Unless they have more faith in Bobby Miller than they've given any reason to believe. Or they bring in one of the big guys. Yeah, I guess. Rombers or C. I was just going to say, what if they sign Dylan C's or something?

And they've got prospects, right? Like, Jackson Farris is a decent prospect. They've got a couple of other guys, right? Yeah, they always do. We'll see. I would agree that it seems like it's leaning that way. Six men with both Emitzian and Sasaki probably. in there to start next season. The Mariners Tigers are tied up one to one in that series.

Jorge Polanco took Terrick Scuba deep twice in game two. The Brewers are up one zip at the time of recording this, though they're kind of pulling away with game two. So it looks like it's going to be a two-game lead there for the Brewers as well. Big thanks to those watching live. Make sure to hit that like button and subscribe for more fantasy baseball content all offseason long. Let's take a break. We'll be back right after this. Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. through some news and notes before we get to our lessons learned. Jackson Trio left game one of the NLDS with right hamstring tightness, the same hamstring he hurt earlier this season,

but was back in the lineup for game two and hit a three-run homer, so I think he's fine. Lawrence Butler underwent surgery Friday to repair a tear in his right Pateler tendon. Apparently he played through knee issues down the stretch, expected to be ready for spring training. Wonder how long this season he was dealing with that. perhaps it was both knees too he didn't have surgery in both knees but he had like an injection in the other knee as well so if you're looking for a reason to and he still he still ran quite a bit

this year too yeah i think his sprint speed was down but he still ended up with 2020 i believe um if you're looking for a reason to be optimistic about Lawrence butler at a massively reduced price for 2026 that's that's as good a reason as you'll find on i'm not sure that's that's why he can't hit lefties, but I'm willing to, even if it's just a repeat of 2025 and he doesn't get any better, he's not going to be a top 100 pick this time. So I think he'll be a decent target in 2026 drafts. Lawrence Butler, 21 homers, 22 steals, but that came with a 234 batting average this past season. Ray's president, Eric Neander said he expects Shane McClainahan to be fully ready for the start of spring training. McClainahan made just two rehab starts.

the minors this year due to a nerve issue in his left triceps, which he eventually had surgery on in August. McClanahan is now 28 years old. He has not made a regular season start since August of 2023. So I have no idea what to expect. In fact, I think you should have zero expectations and just kind of go from there. I feel like we're in Walker Bueller territory with Shane McClainan. There's another two to Tommy John surgery guy. It was a difficult recovery. The start he did make or the two and a third endings he threw at AAA his fastball velocity was 93 miles per hour

it was down four miles per hour from the last time we saw him I just this is like if you want to throw him on the in a reserve round pick that maybe that's okay but I okay I can't justify Walker Bueller immediately coming back from his Tommy second Tommy jump

oh no no I'm saying Walker Bueller right now I kind of view Shane McHanahan where Walker Buehler was at start of 2025. We're like, hey, maybe you bet on something, but I don't think there's like, and Bueller had to have been, he was outside. He was outside. I'm not trying to be like, I don't know what the word is.

I'm not trying to like get you in a gotcha here. Get you in a gotcha. Yeah, look, I just. So he was the 68th starting pitcher drafted this year, Bueller. That's probably that is cheap enough where it doesn't really matter. Like if, if you want to say 61st and someone else wants. to say 80 first, whatever. There's basically, there's functionally no difference there.

Yeah. But it's just to say that I think you, like Frank said, you can't expect anything from him. Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow would not commit to Tristan Kossis being the team starting first baseman next season. Kossis had left knee surgery in May. In fact, it's not even a guarantee that he'll be ready for opening days. So we shall see. I did not have him in my top 20 first basement for next year.

and that seems right with this news coming out. I'm hoping there's a change of scenery. Yeah, we'll see. Chris, good news for your Scott White Dynasty League team. Reed Gettmers will enter next season as a starter with the Angels. Still just 26 years old. He pitched well as a reliever this year. 396 ERA 130 WIP, 11K per 9.

The underlying numbers actually like them even more. So we'll see if any of that success can translate back into being a starter. Speaking of the Angels, their first round pick starting pitcher, Tyler Bremner is dealing with elbow so keep that in mind for Dynasty Leagues, those doing first-year player drafts. Red Sox Catcher Carlos Norvias will undergo arthroscopic surgery this week to repair the meniscus in his left knee. He's expected to be ready for spring training. We had a bunch of Rangers updates. First off, they hired Skip Schumacher as their new manager.

He won NL Manager of the Year with the Marlins back in 2023. Nathan Evaldi might need sports hernia surgery. His season actually ended with a rotator cuff strain back in August. Jake Berger is expected to require six to eight weeks to recover from wrist surgery. And Cody Bradford, who had internal brace surgery in June, is expected to be a full participant during spring training. Seems kind of aggressive to me, but what do I know? I have not been able to diagnose or time these things out very well.

So I'm sure the Rangers know more than I do. The Jake Burger one is just I'm working on like my state of the first base position for the newsletter this week looking at like previewing the offseason reviewing where we stand and I read your catcher one by the way

it was really good I liked it. Oh thank you I'm capable of writing one good thing a year that's the one no I just I knew we had drafted Jake Berger way too high this year he was like 105 in ADP this year that was bad

That was not good. That was a mistake on us. I was looking through all of our sleepers, breakouts, and bus article. That's a, articles. That's a podcast we'll do later this week, kind of reviewing all those picks and stuff.

I had Jake Burger as a bust and didn't draft him anywhere. But I was kind of scared about it because everybody else was getting excited about Jake Berger. So I'm happy I stuck with it. We're going to talk about some lessons. Here's a lesson.

When the guy you're drafting only does 30 good things a year at best, and that is all he. he's capable of and he's playing for a team that has depth and wants to win games, that's probably a bad pick at 100 overall. You guys made that exact argument early in the offseason last year, and I was the only one that stuck with it. And I think after he got traded to the Rangers, you guys were like, ah, but he's on a really good team

down. I think I kind of backed off of me as a bust, right? No, Chris definitely did. And look, I wasn't, I liked him when he was around, I'll pick 130 if he got up to pick 105. He just kept going up. I don't think, I don't think I ended up drafting Burger anywhere. but I liked it in theory.

He only hit 16 home runs. Yeah. You know, he missed a lot of time. So that's, and I have him 27th at first base for next year, so it's not like I'm expecting a bounceback, but it is possible.

Yeah, you know, as a late round. You'll like the price for him next year a lot more than this year. As a late round corner infielder for power, I think he's an okay bet in 2026, but that was just I had forgotten how high the price had gotten on him. And that's one where it's just,

We usually don't care about like bad base runner bad defense doesn't get on doesn't draw walks doesn't get on base But like for the Rangers that mattered and he lost a lot of playing time because of it yep and perhaps the biggest news item of all Scott White has paid off the cereal a bet that's right. Oh wait I got to turn this thing around What do we get here? Apple pie toast crunch. So I did want to go with some kind of weird limited edition cereal and then this is those are always great this is this is what we ended up. Is that sarcasm I'm sensing from you? Yes. You know, if it was really that good, they just sell it year round. But you know what? Maybe they just made it, Scott. And you know what? That's not always true. Taco Bell has some bangers that they just take off the menu every four months.

It's pretty good so far. It's like cinnamon toast crunch and apple jacks had a baby. And this is what came out. So, man, Apple Jacks. I haven't had an apple jack in 20 years. It's unique. It's, I'm not going to it's the best cereal ever had. It's not the worst serial ever had. It's pretty good. So that means it doesn't actually taste like apples, if you're saying. That was the whole pitch.

The I of the beholder. That was the whole like commercial, I can't think of words. But that was what they said in every commercial. It doesn't taste like apples. And the kids said they liked it anyway. So, you know, that was the story for Apple checks.

All right, here we are. Halfway through the podcast. Let's far. finally talk about lessons learned this season. And we will start with Scott. What do we have here? All right. My first lesson learned is not so much like I made a mistake thing, but pull error rate is the missing link to understanding hitter performance.

This was a game changer this year. I feel like I don't know if, I don't know if Stackcast always had it on their page or if they just... I think it was a new addition. I think it was new just maybe second half last year. Because I only noticed it this year, and it explained so much all those times that we looked at a hitter's exit velocities. We looked at his expected stats, even, and we were like, wow, why is this guy not performing as well as his expected stats say we should? And from reviewing it so many times over the course of the year, the answer was most often the pole air rate wasn't good enough. conversely, when a guy was consistently overperforming his expected stats, it was because his

pull air rate was great. Now, there are examples where this doesn't line up completely, so I'm not saying, I'm not saying we've totally cracked the nut here as far as evaluating hitter performance goes, but I think this is a huge leap forward. And like I knew it was a factor, but before. Stackcast made this one singular stat pull air rate, the way I had to go figure out if a player was pulling the ball in the air a lot was a multi-step process on fan graphs that, frankly, you just couldn't look up for every player, certainly not over the course of the season.

I mean, every day when we're coming on this podcast, I'm reviewing 40 plus players every night. And if I have to take this multi-step process to look up pole air rate for any of these players consistent, like it just, there just wasn't enough time to do it. But with this singular stat on a stat cast page, a page I'm visiting every time I look up a player anyway, it's easier to understand and it's a lot more accessible the way they present it. And so, for instance, a guy like Ben Rice, who underperformed his experience, expected stats by quite a lot. Had a great year, but was one of the biggest underachievers by the expected stats anyway.

It's like, okay, well, is he one of these guys who's just going to continually underperform his expected stats? You look at his pull air rate. It's great. And so I think Ben Rice is, he might be my favorite hitter for next year, frankly, because I feel like for as good as he was, there's so much more on the table. Because everything looks great for him. expected stats pull air rate the park he's playing in half the time for a left-handed air it's just a question if he's going to be an everyday player in my mind um so you know that's one example but like it it it was a huge leap forward in terms of me evaluating hitters and it's

it simplified the process so much by just having that one singular number to size up how well a player pulls the ball in the air that it's almost too easy that my analysis almost becomes look at his pull air rate. And like, that's what I'm, what good am I if all I'm doing is pointing to this, this number on a player's stat cast page. But it's, it's a great number. For anybody listening or watching, if you want to find this stat and other great statcast numbers, go to baseball savant.com. You could type in a player's name in the search bar in the top right corner. And then you just scroll down to their batted ball profile. And you'll see pulled air percentage. If it's blue, it's not a good pull air percentage. If it's red, obviously that person does that quite a bit. So

You can look that up yourself as well. Chris, let's go over to you for a lesson you learned this season. One thing I wanted to do was I feel like I spent a lot of time this season struggling with pitchers who were overperforming or like my own pitching staffs. We talked about the leagues where I struggled and it was mostly pitching. So I wanted to like dive into is there something systemic that I'm missing or that I'm doing wrong?

and when I looked into it, I didn't really see any real explanation beyond I picked the wrong pitchers in specific tiers. And so my one lesson, my first lesson that I want to talk about is, this is annoying. But not everything that happens is a lesson. Because I wanted to like really look at,

hey, is there something about these advanced stats for pitchers that's leading us astray? that's not working anymore. Well, not really, no. There were two qualifiers who outperform their fit by one run and 12 who outperform their fit by 0.5 runs this season. I used FIP just because that's the easiest one, but the results for XRI looked very similar.

Last year, there were 2 and 10, so basically the same. 2023, 1 outperformed by one run, 9 outperformed by half a run. 22, 2 and 13, basically the same. 2021, zero and seven, but there were only 39 qualifying pitchers last year or that year. I don't really think we can learn anything from 2021. But the point is, there was not some systemic failure across the board for the pitchers who overperformed or underperformed.

Now then I wanted to say, well, what about the ones who did overperform? Was there something that they shared that could lead to this, that we can learn, that can, no. the two biggest overperformers by FIPP this year were Gavin Williams and Zach Lattel. I don't know if you could find two less similar pitchers in baseball in terms of their approach and their skill sets than Zach Lattel and Gavin Williams. There were a few control specialists among that. 0.5 ERA guys, Brian Wu, Zach Lattel, Jacob de Grom, if you want to count him. He had like a 5.5% walk rate this year. Some high strikeout guys, Hunter Brown, Freddie Peralta, extreme ground ballers, extreme flybubes.

ballers like I just don't think there's any there there in that and so that's the one thing that like my pitching staffs were so bad this year that there's a part of me that's like I got to rethink this again and maybe we'll get to a later point in the off season but that's the the first thing I want to take is maybe it's just don't over learn a lesson or don't try to overfit don't look at the results and say there has to be something there because I I'm not trying to give myself excuses. I had a bad year in terms of the pitchers I pitched, and some of that will come in my later lessons,

but I did want to start there if just the process still seems fine. There is not something broken about the ways we evaluate pitchers. There will be stretches every year where a 90th percentile outcome, like an outcome where a guy beats 90 percent of their projections, You should expect that to happen roughly 10% of the time. And when there are 150 pitchers pitching as starting pitchers of the majors at any given time, do the math. You would expect 15 of them to be in a 90th percentile outcome at any given time. It's, again, I don't want it to sound like I'm making excuses or giving myself room to slither out of, you know, anything.

But it's just, no. I wanted to look for a lesson and I'm trying to remind myself that well just because you got something wrong or just because something went wrong or just because something that doesn't necessarily mean there's a lesson to draw from that and I don't want to I don't want to learn the wrong lesson at the stuff. Yeah. No, of course. And I think that's um you don't want to over correct like an overcorrection is better is is worse. An overcorrection is worse than an under correction. If if particularly if it's something that you. you already are very capable at. Yeah. So I'm with you there. What you're mostly speaking to is the way you evaluate starting pitchers. And just intuitively, without having looked into the numbers you've looked at,

I would agree that the process is good there. I wonder if your approach to drafting pitchers. Like, did you look much into that? And I'm not saying it's wrong. Yeah, that might be the next thing I have to look into, yeah. But that is a separate variable than about. Like, you may have the right evaluations and just not structure your pitching staff in a way that can withstand some of the variance that tends to happen at that position especially. Yeah, and, you know, part of that is getting into my second lesson, which we can talk a little bit more about.

But, like, I was really heavy on George Kirby and Grayson Rodriguez this year before their injuries. I had zero garret crochet, zero Jacob de Grom, and zero, who was the other one? Oh, Jordan Yamamoto. I had zero of them, just injury workload concerns, and that's kind of the whole ballgame, right? Like if you bet on aces and you didn't have any exposure to Grom Crochet and Yamamoto, and I don't think I drafted Skeens either. It's like, yeah, that's kind of the whole ball game right there. Those were like four of the, I don't know, seven best pitchers in baseball that I just didn't have any,

exposure to. Chris, I don't know if you realize this, but you just had a Marlins Freudian slip. You said Jordan Yamamoto. Wow. Instead of Yoshinobu Yamamoto. I was like, wait, who Jordan Yamamoto? That guy pitched for the Marlins like. There's about three people listening who know who that. Great minor league numbers. Really, really good minor league numbers for that guy. I do want to keep this discussion going on pitching. Let's take a quick break when we return. One of my lessons here is that figuring out pitching is hard or maybe I just didn't do it right this past season. So let's take a little bit more of a look into that right after this. Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. So we left off talking about pitching and trying to figure out what lessons

we can take from that this season. And I feel like all of us are, we all kind of had a similar mindset, I think, I don't want to speak for everybody, but of waiting on pitching a little bit more coming into this season. And I thought that I could pull that off because there were guys in rounds four through six that I would be okay with as my SP1, SP2, and just kind of loading up on a bunch of those names. And pitching was a problem for me just across the board this year. I waited on pitching a lot. I wound up with a lot of Framber Valdez or Dylan Sees as my ace on many teams.

In hindsight, like Valdez feels better as an SP2, I think, in fantasy. I think we can kind of make that determination at this point. Chris, you're spot on with Seas. It's, you know, fade him when you have to pay up for him, target him when he's coming off a bad season. I also, and don't want to make excuses, I had bad luck with injuries. I had Corbyn Burns, Cole Reagan, Spencer Schwellenbach,

and Justin Steele on multiple teams. All those guys missed extended time this season. And my ratios were bad in a lot of leagues. I had two different roto leagues where I was first in wins and strikeouts and towards the bottom in ERA and WIP. So I'm trying to figure out, you know, was it something that I did?

And I think in previous years, I would typically get an SP in rounds two or three as my SP one and then maybe dive back in in rounds four, five or six as my SP two. And I don't think that that's like a foolproof process per se. But I think me waiting a little bit more on pitching obviously affected this a lot. I also think that I need to be more open to drafting pitchers who I have quote unquote workload

or injury concerns about. Because I look back at my lessons learned last season, the rundown for this podcast last year. And that was one of my lessons. Don't be scared of pitchers who have injury concerns or workload limits. And look at a lot of the pictures that worked out this year. Crochet, Brian Wu, Yoshinovi Yamamoto,

Max Fried, DeGrom, Sale, Hunter Green. Well, I don't think Hunter Green worked out. Well, they were both great on a per any basis. Yeah, they were. The other names I mentioned were definitely great. But like, Blinknell was great on a per inning basis, but he threw, what, 55 inning, something like that? Spencer Schwellenbach, that didn't work out. Michael King coming off his one high inning season.

Like, ultimately, unfortunately, the answer to a lot of these questions is just draft the best players. They just draft the guys who have good seasons. Well, that's what I think Frank is saying. I mean, because, yes, some of the ones who we were worried about their workload coming in, still fell short in terms of workload. But Frank is saying many did not. And meanwhile, guys that we thought were safe for workload, Zach Wheeler, immediately comes to mind.

George Kirby, sure. Logan Gilbert. Yeah, Logan Gilbert. If you drafted early enough, Garrick Cole, if you drafted Corbyn Burns, who was like the safest ace. Yeah.

Logan Gilbert was a beginnings guy coming into this year. It's not something we can predict very well, which we're not the first to say. I mean, I've referenced Nick Pollock's approach to pitching drafting pitching and fantasy, which is just ignore that entirely and totally focus on how capable the pitcher is,

just how dominant he is. I don't think I'd go that far, but I have, particularly in the last couple years, I have trended more toward that side of things. I know I was the highest on Blake Snell coming in. Okay, Blake Snell still ended up not throwing a lot of innings, but, you know, I was the highest on crochet, I think, of the three of us coming in, too, for the same reason.

And it's just not something I'm going to stress about as much. Also, approach I took this year with Roto League specifically, because that seemed to be mainly what you were referencing, Frank, draft for WIP above anything else. But I have been drafted for strikeouts above anything else. Think about a lot of those guys, though, right? Like Bryce Miller, Bailey Ober, I'maaga. I guess Imanaga's WIP was still good, but.

Those three particular were kind of a, Because I wrote about that trio together a lot of times because they all had this one major risk factor in terms of serving up home runs. And so they might be good at WIP, but there's a good chance they'd be worse at ERA than you were drafting them to be. And in the case of, well, two especially, but to some degree all three, Imanaga's ERA ended up close to four. And Immanaga still ended up being great at WIPP. the other two, I think we're pretty bad. We're pretty bad at everything. And then there were injuries with all three of them that make it hard to know.

I guess what I'm saying is, yes, anything you do, there are going to be instances of it going wrong. I mean, it's pitching, of course. It's extremely volatile. But if you're consistently drafting for whip, you probably don't have to worry about ERA either. And you probably don't have to stress about strikeouts so much because that's part of the reason why they end up with a low whip. And like you should pay attention to all of these things. I'm not saying just focus on one category. But if you're drafting for whip, you're less likely to have these unexpected ratio problems that are harder to fix in a roto league.

The other thing I wanted to say relevant to your lesson learned is that I don't think we all three times. took the same approach to pitching. I know, for instance, Chris was more about drafting a really high-end ace. I don't remember where you were, Frank, but I was more about, like, really hitting the second and third tier heavily and getting a lot of those guys. So I would typically wait. For the most part worked out, Burns being the big example. And I had a lot of Corbyn Burns, unfortunately.

Yeah. Yeah, so. Yeah. A lot of scoop bowl. That would have gone great. So that's why, I don't know, like you guys were saying, I don't want to lean back too far the other way and say, oh, I have to use my first round pick on a pitcher. And every season's player pool in ADP is different, you know, I mean, if things play out the way we think and there's this huge tier from SP4 to 15 and, you know, you would have to use a second round pick on Yamamoto, who's the SP4 versus, I don't know, getting Chris Sale or, let's say, Hunter Green in round four or something like that. It's like, okay, you can wait if you think they're in a similar tier.

So we'll see how ADP shakes out. I just think I need to be personally more cognizant of maybe getting what I consider to be an elite pitcher earlier on in drafts, whenever that might be. And ADP might determine that. Can I give my second lesson just because it is, it will build off of this point? Yeah, I thought you already did. Go for it. No, personally, I referenced it. I need to do a better job of diversifying, especially on pitching, because,

what I noticed is a lot of the teams that went wrong had Gallin and Corby and Corbyn-Rogne-Robernes or had George Kirby and Grayson Rodriguez. Those were more of the early, early drafts where he didn't know they were hurt yet. But what I realized, and this is less relevant for people who only draft, one or two teams, but, you know, I'm playing 11 leagues. Maybe I shouldn't have one guy or a handful of guys in six of those leagues, you know? like maybe that's just it introduces a lot of downside risk it introduces some upside right

like if Corbyn Burns had stayed healthy and had a great season things would look a lot different for me but it is just to say that if you're playing in a bunch of different leagues and just talking about it as an analyst there should be less certainty at the beginning of the season

about outcomes because every player has a wide range of outcomes. Some players, Paul Skeen's range of outcomes, seems pretty slim at this point. But it's still, I don't know, if he finishes with a 2ERA next year or a 3ERA next year, would either outcome really surprise you that much? I guess I'd be a little surprised at Paul Skeen's had 3ERA,

but you know what I mean. Well, there's, just because he's a pitcher, there's downside risk that he suffers a horrible injury. Well, sure, but I'm trying to just avoid that because ultimately to the injury discussion, The way I've always tried to think about it and maybe I've failed a little bit is every pitcher has like a 35% chance of suffering a serious injury. And maybe Jacob de Grom has a 60% chance of suffering a serious injury. And that is not nothing, but it's it's also nobody's safe, you know?

Just so we're not getting on this tangent. I was only saying that in reference to the lesson you learned. Like if you draft the Paul Skeen's as your first rounder in every league. got hurt. That's a bad decision. Yes. That's just that's a bad that's bad asset man. This is a I don't I have like a mutual fund I think. I don't know. I have a 401k. I have no idea what's going on with the stock market. But like it is a generally it is a bad idea to take 100% of your investment income right and just throw it on one stock and say that one's going to be great. That's not that's generally not a smart way to to manage your money.

it's the same in fantasy. I think the way you should look at it, if you play in a lot of fantasy baseball leagues, diversifying early round picks and pitchers. Just because with early round picks, first and second round picks, they're all typically really good. Yeah,

but the only way that it could go wrong is if there's an injury or something like that or just someone flat out bus, and you don't want to have that person on your team if things go wrong. And pitchers just because of the volatility, right? So look, the mid to late rounds, if there's a pitcher that you have conviction,

about. I think it's okay to do that because obviously like you can miss and the downside you drop them but you're probably dropping them anyway. Top five or six round pitchers. Like yeah, you probably just want to diversify that as much as possible. Okay. So my second lesson learned here kind of prevents me from I think having too many duplicates. Not that it's the primary thing, but except obvious value, obvious value. Except obvious value. Except obvious value even if you don't like the player. And this is kind of a point that I've been harping on throughout my whole career, but I feel like I've never quite put it in these terms. And also I feel like in more recent years, I kind of maybe got a little too confident in my abilities to assess

players. And so I didn't take this so much to heart. I became a little bit too much about getting my guys, even if the price started to inflate on them because I have a lot of influence and because the reason I like those guys, a lot of people. You know, we talked before about just how sharp all the fantasy pros have gotten and it's really hard to get an edge when you're drafting, like an edge in terms of I can evaluate this guy better than you can because everybody's looking at the same numbers. Nobody's method of evaluating is really that much more sophisticated than anybody else's. and so it's hard to get an edge that way. If you're just trying to outsmart people, it's hard to get an edge.

But I took that, and I talked about it a little in the preseason. I took this approach a couple times. One example would be our podcast listeners league. You know, I talked all offseason about how Jacob de Grom was the bust I felt most confident in. And I wasn't going to have any shares of him. But he fell like four rounds later than he should have got. gone and I ended up taking him and he had a great year. That is the sort of obvious value I'm talking about. If you're not going to get an edge by outsmarting people with your analytical

ability, one way you can get an edge is just to take the obvious value. When everybody else is so smart that they think there's this guy, I know better than to take this guy and he ends up falling multiple rounds, just take them. Because the truth is, you know, we can look at, we can all point to red flags that certain players had. We talked at the top of the show about one Cam Schlittler has. But the most likely scenario for any player is that he's going to be exactly who he showed he was. That is the most likely scenario for any player. And yeah, maybe that red flag will come to pass, but maybe it turns out to be a false flag.

This seems to be the case more often. He was playing through injury. He just needed to develop this extra pitch. Like, players and teams know what's, like, players know what's wrong with them or their team knows what's wrong with them most of the time. And a lot of stuff is happening behind the scenes that we don't know about. And they'll probably just end up doing what they won't. They won't happen.

Yeah, it won't always happen. There are busts, of course. But if everybody's busts are the same busts, that turns into a value play. And you just need to accept that value. because that is a potential edge at a time when it's really hard to get an edge in drafts. Embrace uncertainty, I think is another way to put that. Sure. Don't be so certain in your valuation of a player that you can't see.

Like, you should be kind of to a certain extent like player agnostic. That's obviously not to say that you shouldn't analyze players, but like projection systems are really good. the wisdom of the crowds is really smart. If there's a guy who's fallen 25 picks past ADP, yeah, that's probably just a good pick. Like, their ADP's probably there for a reason. There was one example where it worked out for me as well. Same exact thing.

Chris Saleh had as a bust this season. He was going in round two of 15 team leagues and the Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational Draft that we did, I got him at the end of round four in a 15 team league. Like, I didn't want him, but he was the most obvious. pick to take at that point. And I said, all right, well, let's hope I'm wrong about Chris Sale. And when he pitched, he was still really good this season. Next up for me, I have,

be careful with trading. And this one's interesting, because I feel like trading doesn't happen as often in fantasy leagues. I've actually found myself trading more the past couple of years. I don't know why it's playing out that way, but there's no way around this. I made some really bad trades this season. Now, this could be a hindsight as 2020 thing. We didn't know Geraldo Prado was going to turn out to be a top 20 player in fantasy baseball, but there's an example. I traded Haraldo Pardomo back on April 28th in Tout Wars for Jonathan Aranda. I picked up Perdomo. I was using him at utility at the time, and I needed a corner infielder.

I like Jonathan Aranda a lot. I thought, you know, he was a sleeper slash breakout type this year. And at the time, I was like, oh, Perdomo is not going to keep this up. Again, it's, you know, nobody knew that Perdomo was going to keep that up, even the person acquiring him. Another one here in NL-only labor. I lost Tyro Ostrada before the season, and so I kind of panicked. There's nothing on waivers in an NL-only league.

I wound up trading Michael Bush and Jason Adam for Nick Gonzalez and Blake Trident. That was a terrible trade. It did not work out. Nick Gonzalez actually got hurt on opening day and missed two months, so that was another terrible part of that. But Michael Bush went on to have a huge season,

which was even more impactful in NL-only league. So I'm trying to figure out, like, is there something to take away from this or did I just get two trades wrong? You know? Because kind of like you said earlier, Chris, like, I don't want to try to find a lesson where there's not a lesson there to be found. But sometimes I find myself, like the old adage in fantasy is sometimes the best trades you make are the ones that you don't, right? I would say your per domo trade very early in the season, giving up perdomo for Ronda. I mean, Pardomo to all of us seemed like a big over-achiever, Aranda. Yeah, he was having a great year.

The only reason it didn't end up being a great year is because he got hurt. But it wouldn't have been as good as years Perdomo ended up having, I think is fair to say. And so, yes, the result was bad. I don't think the process was bad there. So I want to beat yourself. It could have been Michael Bush. You know, like to name or Yandi DS to name just another like kind of love. lower end starting first basement at who are guys who are viewed as lower end starting first

basement the second trade you're talking about what were the terms again so that was an n-only league i lost tyro estrata he was my starting second baseman before the season um so he got her in spring training and so i traded i had corner infield depth i traded michael bush basically michael bush for nick gonzalez that was like yeah the trade like i remember you you kind of float most of the time when you make a trade you floated to us beforehand and i was like frank that's a bad trade, don't do that. And so I don't know that it was wrong to make a trade. I just think it was a panic trade.

It was like, it was like acting out of desperation, basically. And I think maybe the lesson there, there's no such thing as depth in an animal only league. Yeah. Like trading, oh, I've got, I've got depth. Well, no, you don't. Yeah, I think I traded Michael Bush because I had Josh Bell and wait for it, Jamer Candelario. Yeah. Yeah, didn't really have as much depth as I thought.

So I would just say, be careful with trading. Like, trading is fun. It's even more fun in Dynasty and Keeper Leagues and stuff like that, but just be careful. Just don't make a trade for the sake of making a trade, all right? All right, let's go over to Chris for another lesson learned here. Yeah, my last one, I think overlaps with one that you haven't mentioned yet, so we can just go ahead and talk about both if you want to.

But mine is just be more open-minded about the unexpected. And the examples I would choose, I think Geraldo Prado-Prodomo is a great one where I'm fascinated to see where his price ends up this off-season because I think people are going to be way out on him in a way that they shouldn't be. But, you know, Josh Naylor and Juan Soto's stolen bases, totally unexpected, but it happened. All the catcher breakouts and, you know, the ongoing peak-armstrong discourse. I'm going to save like a deeper discussion because we're talking about sleepers, breakouts and busts on Thursday, but obviously you can mention it here. Yeah, just unexpid.

There are, how someone help me do them, 740-something players on a major league baseball roster at any given time, something like that. A lot of weird things are going to happen. There are 14,000, 5,000 major league baseball games across the course of a full season. weird things are going to happen constantly. When you're talking about individual players,

you should never expect weird things to happen. You should never project weird things to happen for any given player. But for the player pool as a whole, you should be open to the possibility that some weird stuff is going to happen across the course of the season. God, didn't someone bad throw a no-hitter this year? There is no-no-hitter's this season at all.

No-no-hitters this year. Okay, that was right. But like that happens all the time. Yeah. Some scrub has a great month and it's always like, how did this happen? It's like weird things happen. That's baseball, Susan. And yeah, so that's, I think for me, I should be more open-minded and less willing to just write off the potential that these unexpected things can continue.

I think Geraldo Prado is a good example of that. I also think we should acknowledge that just because something happens for four months, P. Kare Armstrong looking like the best player in baseball doesn't necessarily mean that that will hold forever and that our analysis does still matter. And so obviously, look, if there was one weird trick to solving fantasy baseball, this job would be a lot easier and this podcast would be a lot less popular. Probably the game would fold in on itself because nobody would be interested in it. Exactly. So we're never going to solve this. But I think being a little more open-minded to the weird things that are happening,

at least in the short term, probably wouldn't be a bad thing. Even if I think that's probably my biggest limitation as a fantasy player, is that I stick to my, I think it's a strength as an analyst, but as a player, this guy's having a bad month. Yeah, but he's good. And it's like, yeah, but sometimes that bad month, becomes three bad months and all of a sudden it doesn't matter what he does three months later, you know?

And I think the best application for this isn't playing the waiver wire because your investment is, you know, it gets a little different in fab leagues, I suppose, but your investment in a pickup is so minimal that it's like, hey, why not? Let's see where it goes. And, you know, a lot of times those players end up being instrumental. Like, it's too early. At the point, when the point comes where you have to pick him up, it's too early to know if it's legitimate. I mean, obviously we have real doubts about this guy.

That's why he wasn't drafted. But you know that there are probably a couple dozen at least impactful players that emerge off the waiver wire every year. And so you just kind of have to, when you see something, when you see a player ascending to new heights, you kind of just take the leap and figure out if it's legitimate later. and, you know, the shallower of the league, the more likely it is you can do that. But it is critical to putting together a winning team, for sure. I've seen Ben Gretsch, the Stealing Signals newsletter, say this a few times for fantasy football, but I think it's relevant across. It's strong opinions weakly held.

And I think that's a good way to view it, especially with those waiver-wire guys, where, like, coming into the season, I didn't think Geraldo Prado was very good. standing by that position and passing up on him on waivers was a disastrous mistake in any league. So you do need to be a little more open-minded than I am sometimes. All right, Scott, bring us home with your final lesson. Yeah, this is kind of related, actually. Regression doesn't follow a schedule. And it's not the first time I've had to learn this lesson.

and I hate that I have to learn it again because I'm sure I even referenced it at points this season specifically for that big PCA guy, Pete Crow Armstrong. Chris already talked about it. It looked like an MVP candidate for the first four months was on like a 40-40 pay. Still ended up having a 30-30 season

because four months is a long time. But the final two months were a disaster 188 batting average 533 OPS. And it's not to say that that's who Pete Crow Armstrong is either, just that there was a lot of reason to believe he was playing over his head for four months, and it eventually came home to Roost. It happened to be after four months this time. It could have been after a month and a half.

It could have been after two months. It could have happened for four months, and then he was amazing for the final two. It could have been April, May, August, September. And then we don't even really notice it. Yeah. Yeah. That's kind of what happened with Taylor-Surchal. He's the most prominent example, but he's not the only one. Say Don Raphael who actually has a very, very remarkably similar profile. Their seasons happen to play out the same way where they were great in the first half terrible in the second half. And both of them have major plate

discipline issues. And then, you know, look at the opposite. Brian Reynolds, um, Brenton Doyle, Michael Harris. Did you guys realize Christian Walker ended up with 27 homers and 88 RBI this year? I do because I mentioned him in my things you missed once Fantasy Football started article. Yeah. So he fits that mold too of regression happening in a positive direction in the second half. Like after half the season where they looked like they were totally useless, but it didn't make a lot of sense. And, you know, the regression came.

you don't know when it's going to happen. Often it happens early enough that we don't even, it doesn't even affect their final stat line. But sometimes it doesn't. And so, you know, kind of to contrast the point you were making, Chris, where if the fundamentals for a known quantity haven't changed, like the underlying characteristics haven't changed in a meaningful way, then they're probably going to get back to being that player.

Like, you can bank on them getting back to being that player. You just can't bank on win. And we've seen players fake it for an entire season before. But that means you fade them the next season up to a degree. A good example of this in action is like this one stands out to be Mitchell Parker. Remember he had a 139 ERA through the first five starts of the season. There was nothing real about it. He had 20 strikeouts to 11 walks in his first 32 innings.

And he capped it off. with an eight-inning shutout against the Orioles, which at that time seemed like a big deal. And it's like, well, you got to just, we always say this. You got to just ride it until it falls apart. The problem is his next start, he gives up six runs and five innings.

And it's like, well, it's just one star. He still has a 265 ERA. Next star, five runs, four run runs, four runs, three runs. It's like, it's one of those things where you can also, if you stick too close to those guys, the regression already came and you screwed up and you undid all the good

because you probably didn't have Mitchell Parker in your lineup for most of the first five starts anyway. So it's like, that's always tough too. Gore this year. There were reasons to buy into what Gore was doing, but part of it is just the hot hand isn't

that real. Yeah. I mean, development is real. And so, you know, sometimes in McKenzie's Gore's case, like I regret, bringing them up because it looked like legitimate development in his case it wasn't just a high hand play but i i guess the reason why i'm saying this is a lesson learned for me this year even

though i kind of knew it already is because i regret kind of backing down on crow armstrong and just saying yeah i guess he's a first round caliber player i held out for two and a half months and you have to understand the pressure i was under for those two and a half months My stubbornness paid off. Yeah, yeah. People did not like to hear what I had to say about Pete Crow Armstrong. And I wish I could have just dug my heels in. I should have, obviously.

But it gets to a point where you worry people aren't taking you seriously anymore. And to get back to my first lesson learned, or whichever lesson learned it was, I don't actually know the future. So maybe there's just something here I'm missing. two and a half that months, eh, I guess it's long enough that I should just go with it,

but it wasn't. I should have waited four months. It's hard to remember in the moment that two and a half months is really not very long in baseball. That was the 60 game season, so think about it like that when we were drafting exact Plesack

as a fifth or sixth round pick the following year and Kentamaieta and all that fun stuff. All right, we're going to wrap there for Scott, Chris, I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today.

Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. We will be back again Wednesday night slash Thursday morning. Bye-bye. Paramount Podcasts.