Fantasy Baseball Today - Liam Hendriks to the White Sox! ADP Risers and Fallers! (1/12 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 12, 2021

Chris Towers is back, which means we're reunited! Today on the pod we're focusing on ADP risers and fallers, starting with Giancarlo Stanton (2:48). Why is he being drafted at pick 130!?... For news and notes, the Nats are interested in Eugenio Suarez while the Braves expect Austin Riley to be their starting third baseman (8:12). Riley is an ADP riser recently. ... BREAKING NEWS: Liam Hendriks has signed with the White Sox (17:17). What's next for Alex Colome? Will Jake Diekman close for Oakland? ... On to more ADP risers, starting with Craig Kimbrel (21:27). He was awesome over his final 14 appearances. ... Who is this new Drew Smyly (25:11)? ... Is Joe Musgrove's price too high (30:32)? ... Why is nobody talking about Lourdes Gurriel (34:00)? ... Is this the year it falls apart for Nelson Cruz (39:53)? ... Why is Sixto Sanchez falling (44:37)? ... What should we expect from Triston McKenzie (49:38)? ... Email us at [e-mail]. Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive, center field, and swing. This is magnificent. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam.

Reunited, and it feels so good. Welcome to Fantasy Baseball today on Tuesday. January 12th, Frank. Sample joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Sure, we did an emergency Francisco Lindor podcast together last week, but now we get a full-length podcast. Chris Towers. How's life, buddy, dual sport analyst nowadays. Look at you big time. Yeah, yeah. It's been, I've been on vacation, so I've been, you know, taking a little, you know, working like one day a week. It's been nice, you know, to finally sleep in or not go to sleep before in the morning,

I guess would be the more accurate way to put it. And, you know, playing a lot of video games. Getting, trying to get better at war zone. Just putting in the hours, you know, grinding, try to get my K to D up. Like you, I played some video games while I was on staycation, but a much different genre. Donkey Kong Country 1, the Boremes for the Switch,

which is I know you own a switch. So if you want to play that, feel free to, I would say, rip all your hair out. Maybe rip all your beard hair out. It is so hard. It is so. I was hanging out with some friends and we decided to like just kind of pass the controller around. And that game is absurdly hard.

It's so frustrating. Scott's here. What's up, Scott? Hey, I am here. I am. How are you? Texas Rangers hat you're wearing today. Oh yeah, this was a Christmas gift to myself.

And I'm hopping on the bandwagon a couple of years early. Maybe a couple years late. I always loved Willie Calhoun. Hasn't really happened for him. Big fan of Dane Dunning. So happy about that. I also love Nate Lowe, so I don't think they're going to be very good, but I think that I'm going to like watching a lot of Rangers games this year.

So, boom, Texas Rangers hat, de facto fan. Today on the show, we're going to be talking about a lot of ADP risers and fallers. I mentioned that Fantasy Pros now has their ADP, and as soon as I say that, I'm jumping back to NFBC ADP because something that's unique about NFBC ADP, the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, is you can sort it by time frame, by dates. So I look back at ADP from October 1st through November 30th,

which were very, very early drafts and maybe had some recency bias right after the season ended versus December 1st through now, January 12th, mid-January. So we're going to compare some of those risers and fallers. And I thought I'd just start with this, get it right out of the way at the top. Chris, we all kind of bashed your love for John Carlos Stanton last year. I think me more so than anybody else. so apologies, but he is someone who is falling. No need to apologize.

You guys ended up being right on that one last year. Well, I guess all on all, yeah, he got hurt, but he did things differently in the shortened season that actually kind of has me buying in and definitely at this cost because he's one of the guys where his ADP is dropping. He was ADP 118 during those first two months, October and November when drafts were going on.

and over since December 1st, he is 131. And I just don't really understand this drop because he played 18 of 162 games in 2019. His ADP last year was around 65. So he played 23 of 60 games in 2020. Actually got better. Hit more line drives than ever before. Chase pitches less than ever before.

Best swinging strike rate of his career. Basically, you know, was a better version of himself. And now he's going 60 picks later than where he was going last year. And he's also going 70 picks later than Aaron Judge, which I just, I have no idea why that is Chris. So you look at their steamer projections.

Judge 247, 36 homers. Stanton, 250, 40 home runs. And Aaron Judge's ADP is 58. Stans is 130. This just kind of gets to the point I was making all off season last year that there is discounting for the risk of injury, which we are, I think it is right to do with John Carlos Stan at this point.

And then there's everything else that's dropped him another 70 picks here, which is, I don't know, it's either he can't stay healthy, which we know isn't true. Like he can, it may be unlikely, but he can play baseball. or it's he's not that good anymore. And I just, I think that's your double penalty. He's being penalized more than he probably should be.

And I would be saying that if he was going 80th overall right now. I have 74th. So I guess I agree. I guess I, I, it's absurd. He's going to lay as late as 131. It's just, it's a perfect. by low. Like this is at 130, there's no risk.

Like if he doesn't give you anything, your 130th pick is probably not going to give you anything anyway. Or there's like a 50% chance that you're going to drop that guy. And so it's just, I don't know, it's an overreaction. And I think an obvious place where there's value. Like you look at some of the hitters that went around 130 last year. And it's pretty hit or miss.

Like starting at 125, you got like Michael Brantley, Fran Mill Reyes, Kevin Bigio, Danny Santana, Tommy Edmund, Kyle Schwerber, Yuli Gurriel, Carlos Santana. What about half of those guys were like worth starting?

Maybe less. I just, that's the perfect spot. That's the Corey Seeger spot last year. Could it be because he's D.H. only? I don't know how NFPCs amended its eligibility, but on our side, he's DH only to begin next year, which is something new for him.

Yeah. And maybe it's just, I mean, that's still a bad reason. I mean, John Carlos Dan is one of those players where I wish there was just an easy way to combine the regular season and postseason stats. So, you know, I don't have to come in with the math already done because he hit 10 home runs in 30 games. this year.

It's pretty good. Six of those were in seven postseason games, but, but nonetheless, he hit, he hit, uh, 10 home runs and 30 games between regular season and post season. So I mean,

obviously he's still got it. I've seen no reason to believe that he can't at least be the player he was in 2018. And in 2018, he was, I think he was the number 24 hitter overall in fantasy. It just, like I said earlier,

it's an overreaction. And a perfect place to, you know, take him 110th. And you'll almost certain, well, not almost certainly. It's John Carlos Stanton. Nothing is certain. But it's a very good place where you can find some obvious profit potential. Yep. And that's the beauty of fantasy baseball.

You could be in on one, you could be in on a player one year and not in on them the next year. And it's just, it's based on, this is a value-based game that we play. And if I'm going to get Stanton, that type of discount, although I have bashed him in the past. He did make some improvements this year, and I mentioned some of that. And yeah, this is just, especially going around this range, there's no other players you're going to find going later than 120 who have like 40 to 50 home run potential. You're just not going to find that. So that's an easy one for me, an easy buy for someone who is falling down draft boards right now, which I just don't understand whatsoever.

Weren't really a lot of news and notes today, a bunch of rumors stuff, which I'll bring up, but there's not really anything concrete to talk about. The Nationals have engaged the Reds about an A. Eugenio Swares trade, but are unwilling to part with either of their top prospects, Jackson, Rutledge, or Cade Cavali. So, I mean, the nationals have been making moves. They traded for Josh Bell. They signed Kyle Swarber. If they did manage to get Suarez, that lineup is already pretty damn good.

So something to pay attention to that was reported by John Heyman. The Braves are expected to have Austin Riley open as their starting third baseman this season. and he's another one who's actually on the move right now and over the past month and a half his ADP has jumped from 246 to 115, sorry. So he moved up about 30, 31 spots. Scott, I know that I believe earlier in the offseason, you talked about Austin Riley

and I believe you are excited about him. Is that correct? Yes, I am because his expected stats were actually really impressive last year. Trying to pull them up here on the fly. But they were really impressive, I can say, for sure. Yeah, I mean, you just, even without the expected stats, you just look at what the baseline stats.

Like he cut his strikeout rate to 24% from 36% the previous year. He improved his walk rate. He cut his infield fly ball rate. You know, hard hit rate was a little, but average exit velocity was a little higher. Max exit V-Lo was right in line. I think it just points to a guy who probably made the adjustments that you wanted to see, even if the overall stats didn't reflect it.

Yeah, 23.8% was the strikeout rate, which is pretty good. I mean, it's certainly not a bad strikeout rate. It's basically average at this point. Yeah, for somebody with the kind of power, potential Austin Riley has. So the expected stats, they weren't quite as good as I was thinking, but still, you know, he hit 239. The expected betting average was 262. He slugged 415. The expected slug was 471.

It was a huge step forward that wasn't reflected in the base stats, as Chris said. And, you know, obviously, as goes for every player who did something in 2020, you can apply the small sample caveat, but I don't think he's going to enter 2021 with much sleeper hype. And I think that's, that makes for a true sleeper, obviously. When there's a trendy sleeper, he's not so much

a sleeper anymore, right? That's kind of an oxymoron. And by the way, when I said 23.8% strikeout rate is basically average. It's not just like not bad for a power hitter. Yeah. The league average strikeout rate last season was 23.4. He was basically an average strikeout hitter last season. Which is night and day from where he was where he was as a rookie. I mean, he struck out over 36% of the time when he first came up, took the league by storm.

This is Austin Riley, hit 14 home runs the first two months that he was up in the majors, and then just completely plummeted. The strikeouts got the best of him. He didn't have enough time to make adjustments back to the league. And I like the fact that he's a young player. He failed. He kind of worked on things. he bounced back and he really did correct that strikeout rate. So the average exit velocity was

up. He hit the ball harder in 2020 than he did in 2019. Very excited about Austin Riley. He's someone who's moving up. He's moved up about 30 spots. But that is one that I can actually get behind. Scott, going right around him right now in ADP are a few other third baseman, Brian Anderson and JD Davis. Who would you rather have Riley, Anderson, J.D. Davis. I'm not ready to completely abandon my J.D. Davis. I'm not ready to completely abandon my J.D. love from this time a year ago. He regressed in a lot of ways. His profile changed in a way that doesn't really support that enthusiasm anymore.

But a lot of profiles changed dramatically in 2020, and we're not willing to believe in all of them. So, you know, I'm not as high on JD Davis as I was at this time a year ago, but I'm not ready to say I was wrong about J.D. Davis either. So I still have him ahead of Austin Riley checking here how far apart they are in my rankings. So strictly for Roto,

I have J.D. Davis 183 and I have Austin Riley 235. So, you know, pretty decent gap there with about, it looks like there may be three spots apart in my third base rankings.

Yeah, I think Austin Riley's upside might be higher. if he can couple this new approach with some of the power that we saw in 2019. But I still do like both, but I think I prefer Riley of the two. The Blue Jays have checked in on Chris Bryant, so

we'll monitor that situation. The Red Sox are shopping outfielder Andrew Benintendi, and apparently Chris, you're Miami Marlins are interested. Andrew Benetting. Marlins are interested. Yeah. Are you interested? Great. Sure.

You're interested in Benintendi. I mean, for fantasy or for the Marlins? Both? I don't know. Look, at any time, like, his value will almost certainly never be lower. I don't think he's just completely lost the talent that made him so appealing over the last few, or, you know, before the last two years. So sure, by low. He's coming off an absolutely abysmal 14 games, but I don't know, he could still probably probably. be an average to above average player. And, uh, you know, in fantasy, maybe a 1515 guy.

It's, you know, I guess I would want to see what his ADP right now is and it's 227. It's, that seems fine. That seems like a worthy late round gamble. Yeah. Especially if you play in Roto or something you could get him as your fourth or fifth outfield or that late. Yeah. Still just 26 years old. It feels like he's been in the league forever. He's still super young. Um, but I, I, I, I, Look this up. 152 games since the start of 2019, a 255 batting average, 751 OPS. So he's been rather average struggles against lefties too in his career.

691 OPS against lefties. We'll say maybe a change of scenery would be good for someone like Andrew Ben and Tendie. And last but not least, according to Bob Nightingale, NLB Commissioner Rob Manfred informed clubs on a conference call Monday that they, quote, should be preparing for spring training to start on time in February. and to plan on a full 162 game season being played.

Let's go, Scotty. Well, of course they should be preparing for that because otherwise they're going to get caught, not prepared for that if it does happen. So this is kind of a nothing story, but at the same time, what I find interesting about this is, you know,

some of the commentariat, I guess it's saying, oh, it's dangerous to do it before, everybody gets vaccinated, and yet it's the players that are pushing for this to happen. Like, the league can't mandate the season start later. It has to be an agreement. And the players want to get paid for all 162 games, even if that means playing all 162 games.

So I think it's probably going to happen, but, you know, there's still a chance it couldn't. It's really annoying that they're doing this again, where, like, has the, there have been any reports that they're like actively trying to work this out right now? Are we going to get to like, pitchers and catchers are supposed to report February 18th, and they're trying to work things out on February 15th for the first time like they were last year. Like I just, yeah,

it sounds about right. It sounds, I mean, not only- I hope it's 162 game season. I hope so as well. And yeah, I'll remain optimistic,

um, just a natural kind of skeptic the way that I have always lived. But, um, I will remain optimistic. here, hope that we can get it in. But, I mean, between the pandemic going on, obvious issues between the MLB and the Players Association dating back to last season. And obviously, they have things to resolve over the next year or so. It's going to be tough. And especially if you just see what's going

on in other sports right now, too. I mean, the Cleveland Browns just want a playoff game without their head coach, NBA games being postponed left and right. So it's a really tough time. We're really like in the height of the pandemic right now while people are trying to be vaccinated. So we will continue to monitor it. Hopefully, we'll cross our fingers that we get a full MLB season. Chris, we have some breaking news. You just informed us about.

What do you got? Yeah, Liam Hendricks has signed with the Chicago White Sox. James Fegan reported at first. White Sox beat writer. So there you go. Is he the number one closer in ADP right now? Mercy!

Shout out to Hawk Harrelson. We've got to get that in there for the White Sox, making a huge move. Liam Hendricks. I think, Hater is still being drafted ahead of him. But let's find out. Yeah, he is.

Hater is going over the past month, 59 in ADP, and Hendricks is going 71. So yeah, about 12 spots difference. Scott, does this really change anything for Liam Hendricks? He joins a pretty good team, a team that's ready to compete, good offense, solid pitching staff,

should have plenty of save opportunities. And he made me look foolish last year. I think he made both of us look foolish, Chris. We were kind of off Liam Hendricks. We weren't buying it, but he's been ridiculous. So, Scott, I mean, is he just like a bona fide top three closer? Yeah, definitely. You know, he was able to maintain the increased rate of missing bats.

And, yeah, I actually improved on his numbers during his breakout 2019 season. He was awesome for a second straight year. And you don't get, you know, the shelf life for closers is so short. You don't get much more. assurances than that usually. So I think he's my, I'm pretty sure he's my number two ranked reliever behind Hater. And I think he's going to stay there.

I don't think his, uh, um, potential for earning saves is any less with the white socks. They did have an in-house candidate and Aaron Bummer who would be a pretty interesting closer target if they didn't go out and sign a more proven guy. So what you're saying is it's kind of disappointing for Bummer that he won't get that opportunity?

that that's what I'm saying I don't know why you went so far out of your way because you would have thought I was going to say it's a misdirection yeah it's a classic misdirect okay all right I feel you Scott you and I both have Liam Hendricks ranked as our number two closer in Roto and I would imagine it's probably the same in head-to-head points

but of course we know that saves are much more valuable in category leagues than they are in head-to-head points leagues I guess the fallout from this is Alex Colomé has to find somewhere else to pitch now and I mean he's kind of tiptoeing around where like his underlying numbers are not very good but he continues to get the job done and I've been so skeptical of Alex Colomay

the past couple of years but he continues to get it done I assume some team will probably sign him to like a cheaper one year deal and he'll be there closer but if the A's do not make another move Chris it seems like Jake Deekman is the leader in-house to earn saves, and I've seen a few reports on that recently. So if anyone's drafting right now, Jake Deekman is the closer for the A's.

Yeah, just a reminder that Hendricks was the first player to lead the A's in saves and consecutive seasons, I think, since... Oh, we did this last year. Was it Grant Ball for? Yeah, yep, it was Grant Ball for. Yep, like 12, 13 years ago. Yeah, I mean, in looking at ADP,

I guess we're back to drafting closers in the top 100. So, no thank you. I will be passing on that. It wasn't that long ago that Balfour led them in saves back-to-back years. Like 2013 and 14, maybe? Okay. Yeah, no, it was 2012 and 13. Yeah, but you said 12 or 13 years ago.

And I was like, wait a second. Balfour wasn't around that long ago. I think I get partial credit for that. Yeah, like he probably should be the number two reliever. I just, I don't, I can't imagine. I'm going to draft him at all. Me neither. By the way, he was around 12 or 13 years ago.

He just wasn't saving games. That was for the A's. That was more recent. Thanks for the clarification there, Scott. Chris mentioned partial work. Always show your work. You know that, Chris. Yes.

All right, ADP movers. Let's look a little bit closer on this. I mentioned I compared a bunch of data from the NFBC from October 1 to November 30th versus ADP from December 1st to January. 11 to see who's rising, who's falling. And I had you guys choose a few names, mostly Chris. But let's start off with one of these.

And we'll stick with the closers. And Craig Kimbril, he has moved from 235 to 192.8, now climbing inside the top 200 picks. And if you don't want to spend an early round pick on a closer, Chris, Craig Kimbril can be your guy. I assume that he's going to be the Cubs Closer. I don't know how competitive they will be and how many save opportunities they'll have.

But his final 14 appearances, 1.42 ERA 0.87 whip. That was after he allowed a run in each of his first four appearances. So really, really calm down after that early season mess from Kimbril. Yeah, it's... Basically, his last two seasons have been a disaster

if you just look at the underlying or the top line numbers. But 2019, he didn't sign until... Late June through no fault of his own. It's not like people thought he was bad. It was just that Major League Baseball teams decided they didn't want to give out draft pick compensation that year. And so he didn't get going until July.

He pitched through a knee injury. And then 2020, like you said, he had four bad outings to start the season and was awesome after that. I'm not going to go. I'm not going to say Craig Kimberl is Craig Kimberl again. You know, the guy who was, you know, looking like one of the best closers of all time. before the last couple of seasons. But he's, I think, pitcher 70 in ADP over the last month, maybe 69. And that just feels like an obvious, that feels like an easy win.

Like that, drafting him there just, it seems like an obvious, another obvious place where there's, there's value to be gained. Maybe he's just done, but I don't think the, I don't think it's, we have enough data to make a strong conclusion on that. And so, yeah, Craig Kimbril, Craig Kimbril, around the 15th round, will be a big target for me. I'm always curious what the impetus is

for such a move like this up the ADP. I mean, we're talking more than 40 spots. And what news has led to that? Because I think the reason people were skeptical of Kimberle at first, as well as he pitched down the stretch. and maybe they didn't notice because they were looking at the overall numbers. But even if they did notice,

like the Cubs didn't give him the job pack even as he was performing well. So what are they going to, what role were they going to put him in in 2020? And all I can see that's changed newswise is the Cubs have sold you Darvish. You know, it looks like they're selling off pieces. And I think it was,

was it Chris or was it you Frank who we was it a smart point then it probably was probably Frank probably wasn't uh Kimbril if the Cubs aren't compete if they're in sell mode Kimbril's entering the last year of his contract so they it would actually make more sense

for them to make him the closer to try and put him out there as a as a trade chip um they should anyway because he's their best reliever but I think, I don't know, maybe people have more confidence they're going to do that now. Let's talk about Drew Smiley and another one where ADP around 247, the first couple of months. He signed in November, so maybe there wasn't enough time for people to react. But since December 1st, ADP 205.7, and for Smiley, not a lot of volume here.

He only pitched five or more innings in two of his starts or appearances, because he made seven appearances, only five of those were starts. But the strikeouts were awesome. The velocity was up for him. He changed his pitch mix. He uses curve more than ever before. Scott, he is joining your Atlanta Braves. Are you excited about what you saw in Drew Smiley?

Because this seems like a different smile than we've ever seen before. I mean, why not? I can understand why his ADP's gone up because I don't think it was clear him entering the free agent market, especially having pitch, like I think most of his starts were less than five innings with the Giants. So they didn't handle, they weren't giving him a normal starter's workload, and it wasn't clear that a team would sign him to be a starter,

but that's obviously what the Braves wanted him to do. And yet as much as the ADP has risen, he's still going outside of the top 200. So the investment is basically nothing. For a guy who, small though the sample was, I believe K-per-9, 14.4 would have been top five among qualifiers, I believe. And swinging strike rate would have been top 10. So, you know, the fact that his velocity jumped two and a half miles per hour after being removed from Tommy John surgery a certain period of time,

I don't know if those short starts were helping him throw harder. and maybe it's all going to come crashing down in a full-length season. Maybe you won't be able to stay healthy again. But when the investment is nothing and somebody shows makes that big of a splash, I don't know, it kind of reminds me of that tiny sample of innings Rich Hill got at the end of the season with the Red Sox before signing a similar deal with the athletics. And there were a lot of doubters then.

And he went on to have a really good second chapter of his career. Yeah, you know what reminds me more of? What's up? what? Shamaniah last season. Yeah, except we didn't see, we saw Manaya's velocity drop during that stretch

versus Smiley's going way up. He was going higher than Drew Smiley's currently gone. Yeah, well, he also had more of a track record, but that's fine. I mean, maybe it won't work out, but we're outside of the top 200 here.

Yeah, I just, I don't know, like Drew Smiley ended up or Shamanai ended up like 180 last year, and there were times when he was going like 150. I just worried, your smile. Like, I don't know.

If it's 200, sure. If it keeps rising, I just, I don't know. He's a 33-year-old. 33-year-old? 32-year-old. He's turning 32-in-2. He's about to be a 32-year-old.

Yep. Who has had 26 in a third good innings in the last five seasons pitching in San Francisco. I just like, I don't know there are lots of late round pitchers who could get strikeouts

I don't know it depends whether it's late or mid-round pick I think is the thing but I'm not going to get excited about it yeah I mean Scott mentioned outside the top 200 so for now it's it's still late but it could continue to creep up I think we're probably dealing with

just a roto only pitcher here maybe head-to-categories as well because Scott I just don't think we're going to get a lot of volume out of him. Hasn't pitched more than 114 innings since 2016. So I don't know where the Braves...

He wasn't very good back then. It's something to remember too. I don't know where the Braves are going to get all their endings from. If they're talking about limiting Mike Soroka early on and if we're assuming that Drew Smiley isn't going deep into games,

like they need to get innings from somebody. So... Yeah. I mean, I'm... I don't see a lot of safe bets in the 200 range. range at starting pitchers. I will sell out hard for the upside. And I feel like Smiley's somebody

who presents more than most going in that range. Yeah, he does. Especially strikeout upside, but probably a rhodo only play for me. And unfortunately, you could see Scott packed his Christmas tree away. That's fine. I mean, it's mid-January. It's probably about the time of year where he should. But we have

a new guest on the podcast. Chris's cat has been appearing on here. And if you want to see... She's been biting me. All of our mugs. So you can see me reacting to that during the podcast if you want. You want to see Chris's cat attacking him. You can certainly do so at our YouTube. That's YouTube.com slash fantasy baseball today.

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All right, so we got through Drew Smiley, Craig Kimbril, we talked about Austin Riley, John Carlos Stanton. All right, we got to do it. It's time. We've gone this long in the offseason. We haven't wax poetic about my guy, Joe Musgrove. Someone who I feel like I've become synonymous with. And he's kind of frustrating, actually,

because I've rostered Joe Musgrove a lot in my fantasy baseball career, and he has not lived up to the hype. And he's already climbing. he's climbing up to a spot where it is already probably too high for Joe Musgra. It's ludicrous. It is ludicrous. His 80p. He is going 80 spots higher than he was last year in NFC ADP.

It's ludicrous. Yeah, as of now, since December 1st, he is at 127.9. That's up from 143.8 in October and November. So Joe Musgrove is on the rise, and I know why. He teases us every year. towards the end. His final five starts. He was awesome. 2.16 ERA, 13K per 9,

1.8 walks per 9. The fastball velocity was up. He had a 16% swinging strike rate during that time. Scott, is that enough for you to buy into Joe Musgrove as a pick inside the top 130 right now? No, I buy into him

as a pick inside the top 180. Yeah. I feel more excited about him at the than I was at this time a year ago. I know there were some people making the case for him then. To me, the changes... I mean, his last two starts, he looked like you, Darvish.

And I know it's just two starts, but, like, has there been a two-start stretch in Joe Musgrove's career where he did anything like that, getting all those whiffs? I venture to say there has not... He didn't have a double-digit swinging strikeout game. the previous two years

and then he got two in a row. So I'd like to be able to invest in. He's always had great control. If he's going to be this bat misser, he's going to be efficient, he's going to pitch deep into games. If he's going to be a bat misser anywhere close to what we saw in September,

then he's finally going to live up to that hype. but yeah, 120. I mean, let me see what kind of pictures I have in that range. I have, I have like Mike Sarrook.

If Joe Musgrove ever has like eight good starts in a season, he's going to be a first round pick at this pace. I have like, so I have like Charlie Morton and Patrick Corbyn in that 120 range, who obviously have done, you know, I don't know. I mean,

you look at the way, the way you look at the way Charlie Morton, Morton finished last season and compare it to his longer track record. And obviously, that's more deserving of a pick in that range than Musgrove is. I like Musgrove. I think there's talent there. So much depends on his velocity, his fastball velocity. He's so much better when he's around 93, 94 versus anything lower than that. And he started the season. He was around like 91, 92. And then of course, when he comes back, the velocities up here. So I like the pitcher. I think eventually he's, we're probably going to get something really good from him.

But if he continues to rise, it's just too rich for me. And that comes from someone who really likes Joe Musgrove. The last name I wanted to mention as a riser, and I don't think we've talked about him at all, Scott, this whole offseason to this point. Lordis Gurriel, he has moved up about 12 spots in October, November. 92.5 is the 80p. since December 1st, 80.6. And over his last 162 games, Lordeus Guriel, 285 batting average, 35 home runs, nine steals, an 855 OPS, average exit velocity over 90 miles per hour in each of

his first three seasons. In 2020, lower to strikeout rate, 4%. Career high line drive rate, 25.9%. Expect it to bet third or fourth in an improving lineup. It's a pretty high price tag, but I think it's warranted. People are talking about Seaskar Hernandez and how excited they are for him like I think just in a vacuum I would take lordis ghariel over to oscar Hernandez because I don't have as many concerns over the the strikeout rate in the play discipline scott yeah I mean the fact that he cut down the strikeouts as much as he did the fact that he had an elite hard hit rate you know which it was pretty high in 2019 but the thing that really made me skeptical of lordis garriell at this time last year

and you know he had a lot of believers but I was a skeptic because it was just such a short, he had this incredible hot stretch in the middle of 2019 that kind of made his numbers what they were and he wasn't that good apart from that stretch. So I, the fact that he bounced back and had, you know, was able to do it again over a couple months' time, was pretty reassuring to me. And I think I can get on board with everybody and thinking he's the real deal. Now, where exactly does he fall among other players who are the real deal? I have him, I have him 104th. So it looks like this NFBC consensus is a little higher than me.

Be curious what outfielders they had. So like here's one that stands out to me. Austin Meadows is going behind him. That feels like an overreaction. And I would rather have Austin Meadows than Lord is Korea. I love it. I can't say that, looking at my rankings. I hear you, I get that.

But I'm down, like, I'm pretty down on Austin Meadows, because I'm not exactly sure. Boo, boo, Scott, boo. I'm not exactly sure where 2019 came from. It was just kind of... Well, what I would say is he was one of the guys. His season got started late because of COVID last year, right? Yeah, and then when he returned, he dealt with an oblique injury.

That just, that feels like a really good excuse. And we were, you know, he was talked about as a, you know, probably a top 15th. outfielder. Yep. He was tough. Last season, he was going

41st overall on average last year. So I just, I don't know. I feel like there, we all said,

let's not overreact to 2020, small sample size. And then Lordus Guriel's ADP jumped 80 spots from last season and Austin Meadows dropped 53. And I just,

like Austin Meadows has done the full season. version of this. A much better version of it. Yeah. And I like both. I wish you played for a different organization because I don't trust the race

to give him an honest chance to bounce back to 2019 production either. But, you know, and part of it's just, I didn't really know what to say against Austin Metas at this time last year. So I just kind of went with the flow on him. And this was pretty disastrous.

Maybe it was a good excuse. maybe not. Like I said, we're kind of just playing hunches, which makes it fun. It makes it more fun to analyze fantasy baseball this year than in recent years because you're going to get opinions all over the place. But my opinion is to give a wide birth to Austin Meadows. Yeah, I'm not as concerned. I really liked him last year. I get it if you're just, if you don't trust the player. But he's still just, he's going to be 25. five years old when the season starts. I don't think the raise are going to kind of mess around. I think they're going to let him play every day. And if you look at his lefty-righty splits in his career so far, 837 OPS

against lefties in 2019, 9-21 OPS against lefties in 2018. I think he's proven that he can handle himself against himself. I will say they didn't let him play every day this past year. Yep. I just don't think he was ever healthy, but that's maybe so. We shall see.

All right, we're going to take a quick break. When we return, we're going to talk about a few players who are falling in ADP right now. We'll do that here. Fantasy Baseball today. At some point, the ageless wonder Nelson Cruz was going to fall off a cliff. But he hasn't done that yet. So why is he falling in ADP? Is it because he doesn't have a job? Maybe. ADP in October and November, 88.8 since December 1st, 103.101. He's dropped about 15 spots. Chris, I see, is shaking your head over there. You're smiling. Every year. Like, here's a hot take that probably isn't that hot. Nelson Cruz is probably the most valuable player in fantasy baseball history.

In terms of the surplus value that he has added to fantasy baseball teams over the course of his career, I don't think there is any player who has been more underdrafted every single year. And every single year, he is one of the best hitters in fantasy. And every single year, his ADP drops. And it makes sense. He is 40 years old. He may be done. Or maybe he will be done at some point.

season. But we haven't seen it yet. And at some point, you're just, you're, you're, the skepticism around him at some point has to, has to stop. I don't know, like, maybe it's because he's DH only. Maybe it's because he hasn't signed. Maybe once he signs, he'll, he'll move up. But if you can get Nelson Cruz at 105th or whatever, whatever we're talking about here, uh, it just, I don't know, it seems like such an obvious win and we do it every year. The one thing I'll say about Cruz, I think most people avoid him because he is so old. They want to be one year early rather than one year late.

They don't want to be stuck with Nelson Cruz on their team the year that he just completely plummets because it's probably going to happen at some point unless he's just David Ortiz and he just continues to mash until he retires. Which I guess is a possibility. But 53 games this year, we did see he was dinged up, he started to deal with more injuries. He only played 120 games in 2019. Strikeouts went up a little bit this year. 27% was a career high for him, 46.5% ground ball rate, career high for Nelson Cruz. And while his batted ball data, according to Stackass, was still very, very good.

It was not on par with where he has been the past couple of years. So I think those are some of the things that people might be looking at, Scott. I don't. You still like him? Yeah. Yeah, I have him, I am 58th. So, like, I think what he signed, I think the biggest reason he's fallen from where he was is because he hasn't signed yet and that's making people nervous given his age and given that if there's no DH and the NL is very limited selection of teams

to look at him. That's probably true. But when he does sign, he'll go up. I don't know if he'll go up to where I have him at 58th. Probably not, considering he was starting at 88th. But I don't think he'll be on this fallers list for long. I don't think that trend of him falling will continue for much long.

longer. But even then, he was still a good value before he fell. I think that's so interesting this year more than ever before is like, we were talking about other util only players. You know, Yerdon Alvarez last year was like a second, third round pick. And of course, he has all the injury concerns. His ADP, the past month, is 87. So, you don't really have to invest nearly as much. And I mean, he's a lot younger. And his upside is probably. His left may not be though. They are. He might have Nelson Cruz's knees, actually. Yeah. There's that for him specifically, but for

DH-only players as a whole. Like last year, it was basically just Jordan Alvarez and Nelson Cruz. So, yeah. If you got one, you were blocking the other, but that's it. This year, it's, it's so many players. It's, it's Alvarez and Cruz. It's John Carlos Stanton. It's J.D. Martinez.

It's Jorge Saler. It's Willie Calhoun, even. I may be even forgetting. Friend Mel Reyes. Yeah, there you go. Yeah. Those are the only. The only relevant ones, I guess.

Now, that's still not a great way to approach it because most of those guys, I think, are going to become eligible at a position soon enough. It's only going to take five games in season. You know, maybe it'll take six weeks, but eventually, for most of the season, I think most of those guys, you'll be able to play somewhere else.

And yet, on draft day, when you're looking at just one utility spot, You know, if you draft any one of them, you're not going to be able to draft another one of them. And you're not going to be able to do something like draft, I don't know, a third basement or something like that. So it's, I get why it's kind of having an effect on all of them together, but it's still, it's too much of an effect. Let's quickly talk about two young starting pitchers who are sliding right now. And I mentioned, you know, some of the fallers were younger pitchers who maybe recency bias, as soon as the season ended, they remembered how electric Sixtho Sanchez was when he first came up.

But now he is sliding ADP from 118 down to 132.7 over the last month. And I think people are kind of looking at the lack of strikeouts here. And that kind of what is driving this fall for Sixtho Sanchez. He had that double-digit strikeout game, his second start of the season. His final five starts, 6.3K per 9, 3.3 walks per 9. So Chris, our resident Marlins fan here. What do you think about this slide for 6th O' Sanchez? If he continues to fall, would you be willing to invest?

I mean, yeah, I think his current ADP 132, it's not just the strikeout rate. It's the fact that this is a guy whose career high in innings is 114. He's coming off, you know, obviously a season where he threw, what's 50 total innings, including the playoffs. but obviously there was more during the, you know, it's hard. Like you can't just say, okay, through 50 innings because he was pitching during, you know, the time leading up to it. But there are innings concerns for 6thos and there always have been.

There have always been durability concerns for him as a prospect. And the strikeouts just have never been as impressive as the scouting reports would make you think. In the minors, he was usually an above average strikeout pitcher. he was one of those guys where K percentage probably told you a better story than K rate in the minor than K per 9 just because he was routinely running a whip around 1 if not lower

and so that that drove his K per 9 down but he was never posting the 30% strikeout rates his high in the minors was 25% usually more like 22 to 24% which is good but not great it's roughly average but he He in the minors was elite at in at limiting, you know, the bad, batted ball results.

And he was very, very good at that in his first trip to them in the in the majors as well. Thing that stands out for me always elite at inducing infield fly balls. And last season in the majors, 16% infield fly ball rate. That's really good. Coupled with the fact that he had a 58% ground ball rate. He could be. you know, a, I think the ceiling is probably like a Mike Soroka or, you know, the really, really good version of Dallas Kichel. And there's always the chance, I mean, there's no question the stuff can get whiffs.

He actually had a pretty good whiff rate, 12.8% swinging strike rate. It's just he throws to contact. 12.8 and that's versus like Trevor Bauer had 12.9. Yeah. But he throws. a lot of sinkers. And so, you know, he is someone who with a different pitch mix could be a better strikeout pitcher as well. So I think there's upside potential. And I just, I think there's a pretty high floor for him. The, the only issue for him is innings, I think. So I don't, I don't think he should be falling, but I think his ADP probably makes sense at 132. Yeah, I think coming off

the season, people kind of just remembered the hype around him. And that's why he was being drafted so early. So I think this is kind of like a natural fall for six-o into an area that makes more sense. But he's dropping into an area right around Joe Musgrove. So Chris, would you rather have six-to or Big Joey? That's a tough one. Yeah. I think I'd rather have six-o. Yeah, I'd rather have six-o. Yeah. Yeah, I'm surprised you were hesitating as much as you Yeah, I know. The move up to Musgrove to this range. Yeah, once I start thinking about it,

I think there's a similar floor. I think the only thing is innings. Yeah. But it's not like Musgrove been a particularly efficient pitcher in his career. He's never averaged six innings per start. Well, overall, it's not like he's been a good pitcher. I don't see how things go that wrong for Sixthos Sanchez

because he's already dominant on two of the three most important skilled areas, preventing home runs and limiting walks. I mean, he's an elite strike thrower. And I probably give him a better chance than you do of becoming a strikeout pitcher, but I don't think he needs to be, to live up to this ADP, frankly.

Yeah, I mean, maybe he's kind of just like a flasier version of Kyle Hendrix when it's all said and done, which wouldn't be bad. I mean, Kyle Hendricks is a very fine pitcher. I was thinking Jose Barrios. I think he could be very similar to Jose Burrios as well. Yeah, just with much better command. I don't know what happened with Berrios command this year. That was weird.

The other pitcher I wanted to bring up was Tristan McKenzie, someone else who we might have some concerns over how many endings he's going to provide in 2021. But a big fall here, Scott, from 159 down to 201 since December 1st. So he's penciled into Cleveland's rotation as of now. He's dealt with a lot of injury concerns. You see the body type. He's very skinny.

So maybe that kind of lends. itself to, you know, more injury risk. But do you, can you find a reason why he's dropping as much? The only thing I can figure is that the, as Cleveland just traded away their best player, Francisco Lindor, and what is their lineup going to look like without him? They've lost Carlos Santana this off season two. It's looking like a pretty raggedy lineup. And you're wondering, is the run support going to be there for McKenzie?

I suspect that's why people are. cooling on him. What's interesting about this is I recently re-examined my initial ranking of McKinsey relative to where I was seeing him go some of the other places and decided I needed to move him up. But you said he's moved down

to what? What is his ADP more recently? 201. 201. And what was it before? 159. Yeah, so I moved him up to 163. As a young pitcher, and particularly a young pitcher who's had durability concerns,

it's harder for me to imagine coming off the season that was that he gets much more than like 100 innings. Steamer has him for 136, which is probably optimistic. Yeah. Although he did throw 143 in 2017. Now his arm started to fall apart the following year, but... Well, actually, it was like... It wasn't just his arm, right?

He had like... It was like a back injury, I think, was the primary. Yeah, upper back cost. him all of 2019, which... But I don't think he ever had Tommy John or anything. Not in recent history, if he did, and you may be right that he hasn't at all.

He's awesome, though. Can we just say that? Tristan McKenzie was awesome. It was a small sample size. It was 33 and a third inning's, but 12% spring strike rate, 35% chase rate. He has four different pitches that he uses at least 10% of the time. Scott, he was really damn good. and then there's the issue that

which pitchers in this range do you trust are going to get a full allotment of innings I think guys who've done it before at the major league level you can probably trust to do that I'm sorry who Herman Marquezwell yeah sure but he's not he's probably not going to be as good

inning for inning I mean there are some there are some that would but the thing is if you're trusting them to get the workload and you're trusting them to be as good as I think McKenzie's going to be on a per-inning basis, they're going much earlier than this. So it's just a matter of what you value most.

I could see him being as good as the Nelson Lamett. I think it's actually a pretty similar profile. McKenzie, you know, Lamet has his own injury concerns. And they approach pitching differently. LeMette is just two pitches and he throws harder, but, you know, high fly ball rate, tons of strikeouts. I think McKenzie probably overall has better established control, at least in his professional career.

I think the upside is really that high, though. Like, this was the guy that the scouting reports and minor league numbers told us he would eventually become. Yeah. There was nothing after that. I know it sounded like I had, like that was a comma, but it was actually a period. We're two for two. That happened on yesterday's podcast as well. I thought Scott was going to continue.

He's like, nope, that's it. That's the end of the sentence. Mackenzie, I think once you get into that part of the draft, right, with some of these younger guys and you have concerns about, just kind of load up your bench with as many of them as you can and just like while they're healthy, while they're pitching. I mean, even Drew Smiley, like he's not young, but we have workload concerns.

He's going to be really good, I think, in the endings that he does pitch. Yeah, no, because the way the innings are limited, for them if we're expecting them to be limited. It's probably not going to be, okay, they work straight through to that limit, and then they're just shut down for the rest of the year. There'll probably be these like phantom IL stents. So maybe when one guy goes down, you could turn to another. But that's kind of like, that's, to get like to broader approach to the draft,

that's, I'd rather do it that way where you're getting a handful of these guys for your bench or maybe your fifth SP spot. And like if you're relying them up for your third and fourth SP spot, you probably waited too long to fill out your pitching staff because like there's just the, the, it drops off. Because we don't know how the innings are going to play out

after so, after nobody got much work last year. Yep. The trustworthiness at the starting pitcher position. It drops off even more abruptly than it did last year. Yeah, I was like any other year. 150 really good innings has never been more valuable in fantasy than it has been in recent years. And I think that will be more true in 2021 than ever before.

Yeah. And how many pitchers have we said this about already? Workload concerns, workload concerns. And we're going to continue to say it. So if that's the case, that means everybody is going to be limited except for the top tier aces who we've seen do it before. And I think that's especially why this. this year more than ever before, I am more likely to take two pitchers in the first two rounds. Just going pocket aces, taking two of those starting, two of my top ten pitchers. I've done a few, like, three different NFBC drafts already. I usually come out with like three starting pitchers in the first five rounds.

And because of that recency bias on hitters, you're getting a lot of established hitters in those middle rounds later than you should be. So you can get Nolan Aronado in the third round in most drafts right now. You start like, you start with, if you can get pocket aces and Nolan Aronado, Exactly. That kind of sounds pretty good. And that's exactly what I've been shooting for. Like two pitchers, you get one of either Aronado, Rendon, Bregman.

They're all going in the third round right now. Take another pitcher in either the fourth of the fifth, then just load up on all these guys that are being undervalued. Glaber Torres in the fifth round. Carlos Correa a little bit later on. Javier Baez is a name. J.D. Martinez, John Carlos Stanton. There's just so many names, Austin Meadows,

who are just going in that middle round range, where just a couple of years ago they were being drafted inside the first two, three rounds. So that's a little bit of my early draft strategy that I've been looking at. We'll wrap up with some questions here. This one's from Luke in Anderson Island. I'm the commissioner of a 10-team Dynasty Points League.

We roster 350 to 390 players and keep all players in perpetuity. Jack Flaherty is my pride and joy, especially with the emphasis on pitching in points leagues. However, I was offered Dustin May, McKenzie Gore, Robles for Flaherty and Gallo or Alec Manoa, who is a pitching prospect for the Toronto Blue Jays.

So give up Flaherty and Gallo or Manoa for Dustin May, McKenzie Gore, Victor Robles. What do you think, Scott? Well, even though he's still young and formerly an elite prospect, and we still can't say for sure who he's going to be, I'm treating Victor Robles in a 10-team points league is virtually valueless at this point. So let's kind of just remove him from the equation. And you're mainly, because I don't put much stock in Alec Manoa,

so you would trade him over Joey Gallo. So you're mainly looking, do Dustin May and McKenzie Gore together make up for Flaherty. Keeping them all on equal terms and considering it's a league this shallow where the standard for impact is so much higher. I'm not sure Dustin May is ever going to meet the impact standard for a 10-team league. I think the chances are pretty good, but I'm not sure he will. I don't think I'd do it. I don't think I'd do it.

I think Flaherty is clearly the most valuable player here. He's still young. You're keeping them at the same cost as those other guys, and it's a 10-team league, so you really need to make sure you get the impact players. He's the one who's already there. Yeah, I was going to say, if you're looking to rebuild, maybe you consider it, but Flarety's still just 25 years old,

so he's young enough, and we've seen him dominate already. So I would stick with Jack Flerty myself. This one's from Dan in Wisconsin. I'm in a dynasty head-to-head categories league. This is my second year playing, and I took over a horrible team, barring a miracle. I won't be contending for a championship.

We're required to keep eight to ten players. Is it worth keeping Chris Sale, or should I move on? He sent me his entire roster, and if I, were you, Dan. I'm definitely keeping Kyle Tucker, McKenzie Gore, Julio Rodriguez, you're going to have to wait

a little bit for these guys, but Pablo Lopez, Sandy Alcantara, Jonathan VR. Those were six that I found that I thought for sure. But after that, I think Chris Sale should probably be considered. I think he's in that mix. Chris, what do you think? Yeah, I think you keep sale. Hope he comes back from

Tommy John surgery relatively strong this season. He should be back by mid-season, right? His Tommy John surgery was at the first spring training, if I'm remembering correctly. They've mentioned June or July as a timetable. Yeah, so you're hoping he comes back

and shows something before whatever your 2021 trade deadline is and you move him for something. I'm surprised you pick Jonathan VR as somebody to obviously keep. I know it's a Categories League. And I know there's been some talk of him resigning with the Orioles. If he's back with the Orioles and that's a team that could offer him consistent playing time, then I'd agree.

but if he's not back with the Orioles, I don't think there were many teams out there. They're going to offer VR the kind of role he'd need to be of much value anymore, except as like a late round steel specialist. That's definitely fair, Scott, but Dan sent me his team, and... It was bad.

It wasn't the greatest team, but you know what? He admitted it himself, so I'm allowed to agree. A roll of his Chapman is one of his players, so you probably want to keep a role to his chatman as well in this format. Yeah, taking a look here at Griffin Canning, Carlos Santana. There's not a lot of other players here that I think, Bobby Dalbeck. Yeah, not really excited about any of those guys.

All right, yes, you should keep Chris Sale. Listen to Chris Towers. And if he performs well, try and flip him for another young piece at your trade deadline. All right, that's going to wrap it up here for Scott and Chris. I'm Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching. We will be back on Thursday. On Wednesday, you will hear Danny Vietti and Will Middlebrooks.

We'll be back on Thursday. Bye-bye. I'm