Fantasy Baseball Today - Luzardo's Breakout Game, Bieber's Concerns & Worryometer! (4/13 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: April 13, 2022

Woah there, Jesus Luzardo (2:53)! ... Alex Cobb's velocity was up and he posted double-digit strikeouts (9:00). ... Tylor Megill or Matt Brash (11:45)? ... The Braves went off (20:10)! Should Ozzie Al...bies ditch switch-hitting? ... We fire up the Worryometer starting with Shane Bieber and Yu Darvish (22:22). ... Which hitters do we have concerns about early on (32:05)? ... How did Zack Wheeler's debut go (37:45)? ... News and notes (40:40): Lucas Giolito and a bunch of other players are headed to the IL. ... Should Gavin Lux be added in shallower leagues (45:20)? ... Add Andrew Heaney or Nestor Cortes (53:05)? ... We wrap up with bullpens and streamers (57:55). Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get 20% off Fantasy Baseball Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:03 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Whoa there, Jesus Blasardo, and Alex Cobb. Looking good, my friends. Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Wednesday, April 13th.
Starting point is 00:00:36 Frank Stamphle joined by Scott White and Chris Towers here to recap all of two. Tuesday's action, we'll have our nightly discussion about Stephen Kwan and Connor Joe, who are still both under 70% rostered on CBS. And of course, we'll fire up the Wariometer here on a Wednesday. And let's start it off with our newest edition, the I don't believe it, player of the night. I'm far away. I don't believe it. I see the light. I've seen the light. One of the absolute greatest moments in baseball broadcasting. history. Chris, please say the player's name that they are talking about. Help me out here. Give me the assist. Matt Tuyasopo. Okay, thank you. Who had never, I believe the setup was he had never hit a
Starting point is 00:01:22 home run in his career. And in the pregame show on the TV broadcast, one of the TV guys said, he's going to hit his first home run. It's going to be the second deck in left field. It's going to be on a, I think it was a 3-1 count on a fastball from the starting pitcher. And literally every single part of the prediction, I think except for the second deck. I don't think it quite got to the second deck of the seats. Yeah. But like, and the anticipation in the announcer's voices as soon as he gets to that 3-1 count, they're just like, oh my God, it's so good.
Starting point is 00:02:01 It is. They were freaking out. Look it up on YouTube. If you can spell Matt Toyasasopo, it's a lot of vowels. T-U-I-A-S-O-S-O-P-O. And it is one of the just most delightful baseball moments. It is awesome. It was awesome.
Starting point is 00:02:19 I've never heard that before. Someone sent it in, so we appreciate that. And give us some feedback. Let us know how we're doing, trying to mix in a few more calls here, not just, oh, my goodness gracious, all the time. But why don't we get started with Chris, your I don't believe it, player of the night?
Starting point is 00:02:34 I, look, we can start with Alex Cobb, who was very good against, the San Diego Padres. I don't think it's the most important one of the night. So I'm going to defer. I'm going to give my time to Scott White because I do think we have to start with Jesus Lazzardo. Go for it, Scotty.
Starting point is 00:02:53 Yeah, Jesus Lazzardo was as good as anyone could have hoped for. Coming off an impressive spring training where we saw his velocity rise. He continued to be up about two miles per hour. He was throwing his fastball, peeking at 99. here in a season debut. But not just that. I mean, that alone probably wouldn't give him those 12 strikeouts that he had in five innings.
Starting point is 00:03:18 It would help. But what really put him over the top, I think was he threw his curveball 50% of the time, which is what we wanted to see from him coming into the year, better use of those secondary pitches that in previous years have been a lot more effective than the fastball. Those curveballs were responsible. for 12 of the 18 swinging strikes he got on only 76 pitches.
Starting point is 00:03:44 So great whiff rate, which is how you get 12 strikeouts, right? And yeah, I mean, if he's optimized his pitch selection, in addition to having a fastball that is now, that he's now capable of blowing by hitters now so that it's not going to be a weak pitch for him, it may be a strength in its own right, then Jesus Lazardo may be about to take off here, and it's not like it was totally out of left field,
Starting point is 00:04:19 obviously. He was a huge pitching prospect just two years ago, but based on coming from where he was last year with an ERA over six to this, I mean, it's a transformation. It feels like Carlos Rodon. Yeah? That's what it, like, watching him tonight,
Starting point is 00:04:34 that's what it looked like. I was going to say, I was going to say Lucas Gialito, the way his career took off after a really bumpy start. But no, that's when you factor in the big increase in velocity there, from a left-hander, no less, a left-hander who's able to hit high 90s consistently with his fastball. Yeah, I mean, it's very exciting. I wish I was more invested in Jesus Lazzardo than I am. Jesus Lazzardo was phenomenal on Tuesday.
Starting point is 00:05:04 And again, it was a weird season for him last year. He broke his pinky, slammed his hand down, playing a video game. Then he was traded to the Miami Marlins. It seemed like he never got on track. And then this offseason knew that he needed to work on his fastball. And he comes out here and again throws the curveball as much as you mentioned, Scott. Over 50% of the time. Chris, I guess if I have to nitpick anything is,
Starting point is 00:05:26 do you think that he can succeed with this pitch mix? With a 50% curb bowl usage, a, you know, throwing his four seam and his sinker the rest of the time. Because he really didn't use the change up much. He only threw two changeups in the start. Do you think he can be successful with this pitch mix? He probably needs to throw the change up more often, I would guess. But I don't know.
Starting point is 00:05:46 It's kind of like, you know how sometimes you'll have a player will have a stretch where they start the season, like hitting 450 over the start of the season, but they like only walk once in the first 10 games or something? And it's like, well, I guess you'd like to see them walk more. But when you're hitting the ball that well, you can't really nitpick. With the way the curveball and fastball were working tonight, why would Hazus Lizardo not throw those pitches as much as he did? His change-ups been pretty effective in the past.
Starting point is 00:06:17 Last season, it did get hit somewhat hard at a 360 expected Wobo allowed. That's not great. But 35% whiff rate with the pitch last season. It was 44% in 2020 with better quality of contact results in 2020 as well. So I do think there is room for that change-up to still be. be an effective pitch. It's just when you're rolling the way he was, when you're generating the just complete,
Starting point is 00:06:43 I mean, guys looked uncomfortable. Yeah. Against him. And it was the MVP of the league, Otani looked uncomfortable against Jesus. Yeah. And there was a couple ones pitches, especially against Otani that were really impressive because he was kind of,
Starting point is 00:06:56 you know, altering his delivery a little bit to, to change up his timing was still able to be effective that way. That's always cool to see. The curveball was getting really, bad swings and misses from right-handed hitters. The Angels lineup isn't the best in baseball necessarily, but still,
Starting point is 00:07:12 it was very good to see from Hazers-Losardo, and I'm like, yeah, he'll probably have to throw the change up more than 3% of the time moving forward, but there's no reason to believe he won't just because he said today. Right. You know, I think is what it was. He threw 20% of the time last year and 24% of the time in 2020. Clearly what he was doing today was working very well.
Starting point is 00:07:34 So, and, like, again, The fact that he's throwing his, whatever off speed it happened to be, the fact that he threw it more than the fastball, I think means pitch selection is a plus. And I do wonder if like, like he had a fairly wide band in terms of his curveball velocity, 81.8 miles per hour to 86.9. You know, I do wonder if like,
Starting point is 00:07:58 I know he's talked about having multiple different breaking balls. So it's also possible that like some of them were sliders. some of them were curve balls and it's just kind of, they're similar. And I remember Jose Fernandez kind of had a similar situation where like he had sort of two distinct curve breaking balls, but they didn't quite know how to differentiate them in the classification. So that's also like if he had thrown a curveball on a slider 50% of the time combined, it probably doesn't really bear mentioning.
Starting point is 00:08:28 So that's another part of it. Jesus Lazzardo is 77% rostered on CBS needs to be added everywhere. 10 team leagues, 12 team leagues. leagues, wherever he's available. I wrote down five names who are rostered in more leagues than Lazzardo that I am okay dropping right now. Eric Lauer, Stephen Mats, Zach Plesack, Corey Klobber, Terrick Scoobel. Yes, that's what I do. I moved Luzardo up to 37th in my starting pitcher rankings, the rest of season. So a lot more than just the names you mentioned. All right. Chris talked to me about Alex Cobb, who was also awesome in his Giants debut. Yeah, and also throwing harder.
Starting point is 00:09:04 So that was a good sign. That was something that was something that We saw, they play in Arizona, so we didn't actually get to see better velocity ratings for Alex Cow, but it was something that was mentioned. And yeah, he averaged 94.5 miles per hour with his fastball. He threw his splitter 43% of the time that splitter slash change up the thing, as it's referred to. He got nine swings and misses on 36 of those. That's a really impressive rate. Overall, 14 swings and misses on 83 pitches, 37% caught plus. swinging strike rate, not quite Luzardo-esque, Lusardian, but 10 strikeouts in five innings,
Starting point is 00:09:45 two run runs, four hits against the Dodgers. That's a really good start. It's, I mean, it's not Luzardo, who, by the way, had the second most strikeouts of any started this season and was just the 15th time over the last decade that a pitcher had at least 12 strikeouts in his team's first five games, which for all intents and purposes covers the first start of the season more often than not. There might be one or two out there, but just the rarefied air that we're talking about, there aren't really any flukes in there with those 12 strikeouts. I think the worst pitcher among them is probably Jose Barrios last year. That's either him
Starting point is 00:10:26 or maybe Chris Archer back in 2016, but back in 2016, Chris Archer was pretty good. So, sorry, had to throw that. Lizardo set in there just because I did do the play index research on that one. But back to Alex Cobb. Lots of splitters. Fastball velocity up. All good signs. Very excited about Alex Cobb.
Starting point is 00:10:46 Chris, I love when you do this because you did a lot last year too, but you referred to CSW as caught strike plus swinging strike percentage. Oh, I thought I said caught plus swinging. That's what you said. It's called strike, Chris. Called strike. Okay. Well, that's, you know what?
Starting point is 00:11:01 whatever. It's the same thing. I guess a swinging strike would also be a cot strike unless it was dropped. So that is fine. I'm dumb. No, you're not. But it's funny whenever you say it like that. Scott, I don't know if there's anything to add on Alex Cobb outside of if he maintains this velocity. The breakout with the Giants seems to be imminent. I mean, we loved him as a sleeper even before. There was talk of him gaining two miles per hour on his fastball. And he did it through driveline pitching that development program, which we've seen other Pitchers gain and sustained velocity through that, including his teammate Alex Wood, who by the way, in his first start, his velocity was up even more. So, yeah, Giants pitching staff looking great.
Starting point is 00:11:44 All right, let's talk about another fun starting pitcher from Tuesday night. Lots of fun pitchers going. The baby goat, Tyler McGill, strong again against the Philadelphia Phillies, five and a third shutout, three hits, zero walks, five strikeouts, 16 swinging strikes on 76 pitches, a 21% swinging strike rate in this start.
Starting point is 00:12:05 10 of those came on the fastball, three on the change-up, three on the slider, so we had everything working here. And again, the velocity was up. Fastball velo, up two miles per hour compared to last season. 75% rostered is Tyler McGill. Like Jesus Lozardo, needs to be added. 10 team leagues, 12 team leagues, any of those names that I mentioned earlier, those five, Lauer, Mats, Plessack, Kluber, Scoobel, you could drop those.
Starting point is 00:12:28 for Tyler McGill. Scott, I guess I would hope you don't have to make this decision. I would take Lazzardo over him, but man, if you have to, I would just find a way to get them both on my team.
Starting point is 00:12:40 Yeah, no, I agree with that. I didn't move McGill quite into my top 40 like I did Luzardo. I think I moved him into my top 60 though. So, yeah, I mean, obviously, I can't imagine any league out there shallow enough that 60 starting pitchers aren't rostered. So I've got...
Starting point is 00:12:58 Luzardo, McGill, and Cobb all inside my top 50. And if I was in a 10-team league, tell me if this is an overreaction. If I was in a 10-team league, I would drop Mike Clevenger for any of them. And a 10-team league? 10-team league. If he was my worst, if I was stashing him and I didn't have an I-L spot. Yeah, I mean, obviously in a league that shallow, anybody who's not an out-and-out stud is...
Starting point is 00:13:28 I think it's defensible to drop somebody, and obviously he's on the IEL. So in a league that shallow, you could see him. As I was talking about, I think I was just on yesterday's podcast, in those shallow leagues where you got all these guys emerging on waivers who are showing serious upside and you don't want to miss out on your chance
Starting point is 00:13:50 to get them while they're front and center, you've got to treat your bench spots as not just I like these players so they're going to remain on my bench, but these are the players I need to protect from falling into the wrong hands. And I don't think Clevenger, in one of those shallow leagues fits in that category.
Starting point is 00:14:08 Like if you drop him in a 10-team league, chances are he's just going to stay dropped. And I'd also throw like Chris Sale in there if you don't have the IL spot. You know, obviously the upside's really high. But, you know, this is something that I wrote about with Stephen Kwan and Connor Joe where it's not just, do you, I think Stephen Kwan is better than outfielder, you know,
Starting point is 00:14:29 47 or whoever you would end up dropping for him? I'm not coming up with a name right now, but you could also throw on Hazers Lizardo versus, I don't know, Zach Grinke or Anthony Descliffeani. Guys who I like, who I think will be useful. It's not just, do I think those guys will be better? because I think on the whole, it's probably more likely that Zat Granky is better than Hazel Slazardo rest of season.
Starting point is 00:14:56 But there's the opportunity cost of not picking up Hazel Zazardo. Jesus Lazzardo is as good as we think he can be. This is your only chance to have him. And so you're passing on, like that's the thing
Starting point is 00:15:09 is when there's the hype around these guys, it's not just whether you think they're better than player X. It's who are you more likely to have a chance to get a next other opportunity at. And I think with someone like Luzardo coming off a start like this, there's no chance if he's any good.
Starting point is 00:15:28 Like if he's bad, if he's Hazardos from last year, then it doesn't matter anyway. And you may have wasted a roster spot. But the upside is, you know, you don't want to drop a pitcher with comparable upside. I wouldn't drop Logan Gilbert. I don't think I would drop Ian. in Anderson, but, you know, that's the range that I'm ranking them in now. I move Luzardo ahead of both. Just one spot ahead of Gilbert.
Starting point is 00:15:58 Head of Gilbert is. Anderson, I feel a little more comfortable in. Gilbert, I feel like he could be, I feel like there are more promising signs than with Anderson. Yeah, I don't think I would do it for Gilbert. I think I would for Ian Anderson, though. That one, that one I feel a little bit more comfortable. Obviously, if it came to that.
Starting point is 00:16:15 If you're playing in 12-team league, it probably doesn't. If you're playing in 12-team league, Luzardo's probably already rostered. Yep. Scott, there was another one more, like, young, exciting pitcher that went on Tuesday. Matt Brash, he looked pretty awesome in his debut. I thought they kept him in a little bit too long here against the Chicago White Sox. Five and a third, two runs, six strikeouts. He had 11 swinging strikes on 85 pitches.
Starting point is 00:16:38 And he threw first pitch strikes to 17 of 21 batters. I thought that was awesome to see for a young starting pitcher. The pitch makes 35% fastballs, 34% curve, 26%. slider and each of those breaking pitches had over 2,900 RPM. That's the spin rate. Those are elite numbers for spin rate. The miracle curve has just ridiculous movement. I'm not sure they're the different breaking pitches.
Starting point is 00:17:04 It's interesting. Originally, Stack has classified them as the same. It was just one breaking ball that he threw 60% of the time. And they have the exact same RPM. They're just, you know, I think maybe there's a one's a little harder, faster version. Yeah. And the slider is the pitch that has been hyped all this time.
Starting point is 00:17:22 It was the best in the miners last year, some scout said. So that may have just all been the slider. And it was responsible for every, if it was just one pitch and not two, it was responsible for every single one of the whiffs. But he also, he also hit 99 with his fastball. So it's not like, that pitch has some potential as well. And one thing, go ahead, sorry. I think when you have
Starting point is 00:17:51 somebody who knows what his best pitch is and is willing to throw it that often and it's basically untouchable the movement on it is ridiculous it looks like a cartoon or something I don't know that he needs the arsenal to be much more varied than that and I was
Starting point is 00:18:10 heartened that he threw so many strikes that he only walked one in his major league debut that he went 80, he threw 85 pitches. They let him go deep into the game as deep as you're seeing any pitcher going to game, really, this first time through. I was really impressed. I thought, watching that start, I thought he was going to be, oh, my goodness, gracious for one of us.
Starting point is 00:18:32 But there just happened to be so many other good pitching performances that came later. Yep. Chris, who would you rather have Tyler McGill or Matt Brash? They're both, they're between 70 and 75% rostered. I would say McGill, and the reasoning is because we saw McGill, go pitch relatively effectively last season. His ERA was a little high, but his XERA was actually like 3-7 last season. And he's added, you know, what, three miles per hour to his fastball.
Starting point is 00:18:58 Didn't quite hit 100 like he hoped to today, but still pretty good. So that's what I would say is I just think the floor for McGill is a lot higher at this point. Bresch did get hit really hard in this game for what it's worth. That was the balls in play, 96 mile per hour average X velocity. velocity, but that wasn't so much an issue for him in the minors. He didn't run extremely high hit or home run rate. So, you know, I don't, it's one start. I don't know how much to take out of that. Against a pretty season lineup too in Chicago White Sox. So, uh, yeah, I was going to mention that was really the only negative. He gave up 10 hard hit balls. And Matt Brash, I mean,
Starting point is 00:19:37 Scott, you talked about the two pitch mix. And it kind of reminds me a little bit of Tyler Glass now where if you throw a fastball that hard with a breaking pitch that's that good, it might not matter if you have a third pitch or not. So I think he might be able to succeed in the way that we've kind of seen Tyler Glass now succeed in the past. And I don't know that it matters if you get hit hard either, if you're just not going to get hit that often. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:19:59 Yeah, I mean, that's the Robbie Ray, Shane Bieber. You know, kind of a pretty. Well, he's past Shane Bieber. I'm sure we'll get to that in a minute. Oh, we've got Shane Bieber coming up in just a second. But before we do that, if your offense is in need of a wake-up call, just face Patrick Corbyn,
Starting point is 00:20:15 because my gosh, like, it's over for Patrick Corbyn. Let's let's not like ever recommend him ever again this season. The fortune favors the brave three start of the week, whatever he was for the long week. But man, yeah, the Braves put up 16 runs on 19 hits. Three hits of those came for Marcel Ozuna. That included a double dong, two home runs for Ozuna there. Three hits for Ozzy Albies who hit his first home run.
Starting point is 00:20:41 Interestingly enough, I don't know if you guys saw this. He hit right-handed. against D. Strange Gordon. So a position player was pitching, and he is a right-handed pitcher. And Albi's hit right-handed against him. So that, I mean, that- picture. That reminds me of Luis Castillo,
Starting point is 00:21:00 famously, Marlins' infielder, Luis Castillo, famously crushed knuckleballers. And he was a much better hitter from the right side of the plate, especially in terms of power. Obviously, he didn't hit for much power, if you remember him. But he would always hit righty only against right-handed knuckleball pitchers. But, you know, it was D. Gordon. Right. Yeah. That's, I don't think that's telling us much. I don't want to take anything away from it. I just kind of wish that Ozzy Albies would stop switch hitting. Like, try it for one season and
Starting point is 00:21:30 he's a much better power hitter from the right side. And it's always like, you see something similar with Yon Mancada from the opposite where he just doesn't hit lefties well at all. And I do wonder if guys like that, like aren't hurting themselves a little bit with the. The switch hitting thing, it's really hard to do. But whatever. Travis, Travis, you know,
Starting point is 00:21:51 had the funniest moment of the season so far. That was fantastic. Got hit by a 52 mile an hour, D. Gordon pitch and collapsed in pain. That was great. This phenomenal stuff from Travis Darnow. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:22:02 If you have not seen that, please go look it up. It's one of the best moments, probably the best moment of the season so far. Marcelo is going to have five hard hit balls today. Yeah. Like, imagine LeBron James playing baseball.
Starting point is 00:22:13 This is what he would do. No, I'm just kidding. Three hits for each of Darno and Adam Duval. I wanted to end there. Let's get into the Worryometer on a Wednesday, and we've got to start with Shane Bieber. Velo and spin rates way down.
Starting point is 00:22:26 Once again, no hits through five innings for Bieber, and then imploded there in the sixth, a hit by pitch, back-to-back doubles, and then the reliever that replaced him gave up a game-tying home run. So the final line for Bieber, five and a third, three runs, three walks, five strikeouts, only eight swinging strikes
Starting point is 00:22:42 on 79 pitches. V-Lo down around 2 miles per hour on all of his pitches, slider spin rate down, 290 RPM, the curve down 407. Scott, Worryometer, Shane Bieber, after a second start. I think I might go as high as 6 after the second start. It was kind of disappointing that the bullpen let the game get away, allowed some inherited runners to score
Starting point is 00:23:10 when he took a no-hitter into the sixth inning. Bieber did. And, you know, so the final line ends up being not, it wasn't a bad final line, but it wasn't like, oh, my goodness, he, look at, no hit the team. Because it would have been your opportunity to deal him for at least face value and maybe a surplus. And I'm to the point now where if I have that opportunity,
Starting point is 00:23:35 I think I want to take it. Because, I mean, while in that first start when the velocity was down, the whiff rate was still, Pretty impressive. It wasn't in this start. He wasn't missing many bats. The velocity was a little better than in the first start. So that is, if you're looking for some reason to be encouraged, that's it.
Starting point is 00:23:56 He's trending the right direction as far as velocity goes. And until he plateaus, we don't know exactly where it's going to end up, obviously. But it doesn't look like it's where it needs to be for him to be an elite pitcher in fantasy. If it plateaus here, I'm not saying it's a disaster. I mean, he could still be an effective one for you, but I'm worried he's not going to return full value at this point. So what's face value, Scott? I'll ask him and then I'll just get into it, Chris.
Starting point is 00:24:28 But like if someone offered you Aaron Nola right now, would you accept that for Shane Bieber? No. Okay. I would, but I had Nola ranked ahead coming into the season. Yeah. What about like Robbie Ray? I mean, he's got his own velocity.
Starting point is 00:24:42 I want to watch his second start before. answer that right yeah I guess Sandy Alcantara right like that's the one I had ranked higher than Bieber would you do that no I need a second round type of player for him hey so I mean you're looking at random Woodruff
Starting point is 00:24:57 okay Randon Woodruff okay Randall was terrible in his first start but the velocity was fine yeah yeah I saw someone mention Max Fried and Pablo Lopez for him I think I would do that Max Fried and Pablo all right so going the quantity route it'd have to be at least a 12
Starting point is 00:25:12 team league I think to yeah Good. Yeah. Beyond the wrong end of a two for one. Sure. All right. So Scott has the, go ahead, Chris. Go ahead.
Starting point is 00:25:21 Your thoughts on Shane Bieber. Yeah, I mean, I had him as a borderline third rounder. He was 33rd overall for me. And I was lower on pitchers overall, but even then he was my number 11 starting pitcher. I had him behind Robbie Ray.
Starting point is 00:25:31 I had him behind Sandy Alcantra. I had him behind Aaronola and Julio Arias. So there are reasons to be concerned with Erius and Robbie Ray, especially in terms of their velocity and how they looked in their first starts as well. So I don't want. want to, you know, just say it's just a Shane Bieber issue. But I think if Shane Bieber, Julio Reis, and Robbie Wright all have velocity issues, I think he's probably more prone to being worse than those other guys because I don't, I don't trust his ability to, like, especially since
Starting point is 00:26:07 we've seen it not just be the fastball, but it's also the breaking balls not being as effective and not spinning as much. I just, I don't know if he has enough to fall back on when, because it's not like Shane Bieber doesn't throw 97. You know, he's not blowing his fastball by guys. His fastball was like good enough when he was averaging 93, 94 with it. Now I worry that he's just going to have a plain bad fastball. And that's really, really, like the margin for error is really slim.
Starting point is 00:26:36 It's not that he can't be good. It's just, it's really, really hard. if you like he doesn't he leaves the fastball in the zone too much it doesn't get a ton of wiffs you know at the lower velocity van and so it's just i don't know i don't want to say that like Shane beber's doomed even if he does throw 91 miles an hour 90 miles an hour instead of 93 but it just it makes everything harder yeah it is and and that's not even getting into the slider and curve spin rates this in this start are are incredibly alarming yeah because that's where a lot of the movement on those pitches comes from.
Starting point is 00:27:16 And so if your pitches aren't spinning as much, if you're breaking pitches aren't spinning as much, you're not going to get as much break. And all of a sudden, those chases that Shane Bieber has really lived on. He's one of the best pitchers at getting swings and misses outside of the strike zone with those pitches. All of a sudden, those pitches are either not as far out of the strike zone
Starting point is 00:27:33 or badders are seeing them better. And either way, that's going to be bad. So there's not a lot to be positive about with Shane Bieber, right now. That being said, velocity is a very, very stable metric for one start. But it doesn't mean he can't throw harder moving forward. I don't even know if we've mentioned it, but coming off the shoulder injury too, like that's a huge aspect. It's like something we saw last year. Final two starts was only whatever four or six innings. Yeah. But the V-Lo is down then. The spin rates were down then. And you know, so far his first two
Starting point is 00:28:08 starts this year, it's the same thing as carried over. So that adds to, even more concerned for him. We've seen four starts since the sticky substance ban as well. Which we don't know specifically what he was using if he was using anything, but the results are what they are. All right.
Starting point is 00:28:25 Let's go from one pitcher to another. You Darvish, with the shortest outing of his career. This one at San Francisco. He recorded just five outs. He gave up nine runs on eight hits. He allowed six hard hit balls. And Scott, similarly to Shane Bieber,
Starting point is 00:28:40 spin rates for Darvish just way down here. over 200 RPM down on the force team, the cutter, the slider. And we mentioned this last week, even though he threw six no-hit innings against the diamond backs, you look under the hood and it didn't seem that impressive here. So what are you thinking Moriometer on you, Darvish? Yeah, I might even go a notch higher. I might go seven on Darvish because it's even longer.
Starting point is 00:29:07 It's much longer than Beaver that we've seen the spin rates down for him. and it correlates to the sticky substance ban and I'm just not sure he's able to get a grip anymore. Not that I'm accusing him of anything, but there is a correlation there. And the bottom line is he's not spinning the ball as much and he's not controlling it as well. Even in that six no-hit innings last time he walked four.
Starting point is 00:29:37 So, you know, there was some talk in, spring training that he had hit your shoes in the second half last year and it affected other parts of the body as well. And especially since he looked good in spring training, you know, okay, I can buy that explanation. But through two starts, we're not seeing the results to back up that story. So, like, I'm afraid to start you Darvish now. I'm not ready to say that about Shane Bieber, but I'm not, I'm not. sure Darvish is going to be an automatic start for me when I set my line of for next week. And as you mentioned, Scott, with the spin rates last year, the crackdown was in June.
Starting point is 00:30:21 And from July 1st on, U.S.S. had a 6.65 ERA over 14 starts. So another one where, you know, kind of picking up where he left off. I know he had a really good start last week, but this one is very concerning for Darvish. Chris, what do you think, Wariometer on U.Darvish? I agree with that range. I think six or seven. And I agree, I think I agree being more worried about Shane Bieber relative to expectation. But that being said, the thing with you Darvish, we've seen this numerous times in his career, is he's such a weird pitcher.
Starting point is 00:30:54 He has so many. I mean, legitimately has like seven different pitches that he can throw at any given time. And during his off days, he throws left-handed in bullpen sessions. And like, so it's just like, it's, it's almost like, are there so many moving pieces with him that it's just like, it can occasionally just take a really long time for him to figure out whatever it is that's wrong. Remember, was it 2019? He was one of the worst pitchers in baseball for two months. And then went on this historic run over the final four months of the season and was unhittable. He went from, I think it was like six walks per nine to less than two.
Starting point is 00:31:36 He was unbelievable, and it was one of the more dramatic turnarounds I can remember. So it's also, I'm always going to be worried about writing you Darvish off. Yeah. No, I agree. Like, if you're in one of those shallow leagues and you're considering who to drop for Jesus Lazzardo, it should not be U. Darvish. Yeah. Like, just because I'm afraid to start him, I, I, just because I'm, yeah, just because
Starting point is 00:32:00 I'd be willing to sit him doesn't mean I'm anywhere close to being willing to drop him. All right. I have a bunch of hitters I want to ask you guys about as well. And it's fine not to be worried. We're less than a week into the season. But who knows, maybe for some of these players, you actually are. So we'll do a little rapid fire. Scott Jared Kelnick 0 for 4 on Tuesday.
Starting point is 00:32:18 Golden Sumbrero, four strikeouts. He is now one for 15 with 9Ks over his first five games, Worryometer. If we're just talking about for this season, I'll say eight. Damn. We're talking Dynasty context, not nearly as worried, but if we're just talking about it right now, I'm not sure how long we put up with this before we drop him, considering how his debut season went. All right, so maybe in Dynasty.
Starting point is 00:32:47 I would not drop him for Stephen Kwan and Connor Joe, which is one that I've gotten, but I can't say that nobody would drop him for those guys. I can't say Scott wouldn't. I think I moved them ahead of him in my rankings, at least in points leagues. It's probably closer in Roto. Oh, you did, Scott, because I pulled. up the ranks and you moved Stephen Kwan and Connor Joe way up inside of your top 35
Starting point is 00:33:10 outfielders in points leagues. They're just ahead of Jared Kelnick. Lots of Dodgers here on the list as well. I want to point out that they've played their first four games in Colorado and Minnesota. So not the most ideal weather here in April. But let's start with Cody Bellinger, everyone's favorite. O for three with
Starting point is 00:33:26 three strikeouts on Tuesday, but he did have a walk and two steals. He is now two for 14 with six strikeouts. That is a 40% strikeout rate. His average exit velocity is 78 miles per hour. Chris, Worryometer, Cody Bellinger. You know, so I think on Sunday show I said something about Mitch Keller and how like I'm not going to overreact to one bad start, but like he does, he is in like showy mode and obvious Cody Ballinger is not Mitch Keller. He's not the hitting version of Mitch Keller.
Starting point is 00:33:56 Although last year he was kind of the hitting version of Mitch Keller. And then in spring training, he was, you know, maybe worse than Mitch Keller. And, So far, he's been, you know, hitter-esque Mitch Keller. With analogy, it's gone off the rails. But he deserves more time. I'm not going to, I don't know, like, how long would Cody Ballinger have to have a 35% strikeout rate for me to feel comfortable dropping him in a five outfield 12 team league? May 1st. Minimum six weeks.
Starting point is 00:34:29 I was going to say May 1st. Yeah, it would have to be a while. But, like, this is about as bad as a start. as you could have asked for. I mean, I guess 40% strikeout rate. We have seen worse from Cody Bellinger very recently in spring training when he was like a 70% strikeout, right? So I guess you take the small victories when you can,
Starting point is 00:34:48 but that average exit velocity at 78 miles an hour is just, like this was the concern with him coming in as it wasn't just that he had to stay healthy. He needed to either rebuild or rediscover his swing. And he just, it doesn't appear as if he has yet. And so I think you have to be worried. I think it's like a seven on the Wariometer. Scott, you get Mookie Betz, who is 3 for 18 with five strikeouts.
Starting point is 00:35:16 That is a 26% strikeout rate. Not much hard contact to start the season. Woreometer on Mookiee Betz. One. The only reason it's not zero is because he had that hip issue last year and never had surgery on it. But he'll be fine. Chris, Max Muncie is one for 15 through four games. The strikeouts haven't been an issue.
Starting point is 00:35:35 His average exit velocity entering Tuesday was 83.8 miles per hour. Yeah, I mean, that one, I guess it's got to be like a six. Just because of the elbow issue. If it wasn't for the elbow issue, I wouldn't be concerned at all. This is sometimes guys just have weird five game stretches. And the fact that everybody in the Dodgers lineup is seemingly having a bad five game stretch makes me less concerned about them individually. But yeah, with the elbow, I, especially Max Monzi wasn't good in spring training. either. So yeah, you have to be a little concerned.
Starting point is 00:36:06 Yeah. Yep. Scott, Marcus Semyon is two for 22 to start his Texas Rangers career. His average exit velocity was 81 miles per hour entering Tuesday. Yeah. So I don't want to overstate it because obviously it's a tiny sample. But he was on my bust list. And, you know, we saw what happened to him in 2020 in between the two near MVP seasons. So I think I got to say at least four for Marcus Simeon.
Starting point is 00:36:39 I'll say four. All right. I'm going to give you one more because I know you like this player. Brendan Rogers, two for 19 to start with seven strikeouts. That is a 33% strikeout rate. I mean, it's, I don't really have anything negative to say about him. So I guess I'm not worried that just, you know, small sample. I'll say three, which doesn't mean, you know, since Marcus Simeon,
Starting point is 00:37:02 I gave a four and Rogers I gave a three that I would trade Marcus Simeon for Rogers so don't interpret it that way. But relative to expectations. I'll say three for Rogers at most. One thing I will say it would be less concerning on a different team
Starting point is 00:37:20 but the Rockies are not trustworthy when it comes to their lineup decisions and so I could see a weird bad start that ultimately means nothing either costing him a lineup spot or costing him playing time. That would be the only reason I would be concerned about this, but it's too early for that, I think. All right, last name I wanted to mention here.
Starting point is 00:37:42 I'm not actually worried about this player, but we should mention his season debut. Zach Wheeler against the Mets, four and two thirds, one run, three strikeouts. His fastball Velo was down 2.2 miles per hour. His slider was down one mile per hour. Chris, this is the first official start that we've seen from Zach Wheeler.
Starting point is 00:37:59 He didn't make a start. in spring training. He might need some time to get built up. I'm not overly worried here, but I think it's something to watch. So that one, I was looking early on in the start, and it seemed like his fastball velocity was fine.
Starting point is 00:38:13 So I wonder if that just dropped pretty precipitously as the start went on. That's something I'm going to look up right now, because, yeah, that would be a little bit of a concern if that is how it went, that, you know, the velocity dropped as he went on. So I'm going to look that.
Starting point is 00:38:30 I would think that would be less concerning because obviously he has hardly built up and they were letting him go. How many pitches did he end up throwing 65? It seemed surprising to me that they were, because they were talking 75 before the game, that they were willing to let him throw that many based on, did he even make one spring start?
Starting point is 00:38:50 He wasn't available for much of spring training. So if the velocity started out fine and then dropped, that would suggest to me he was just overextending himself as opposed to this is who he is now, you know?
Starting point is 00:39:07 Yeah, so it was yeah, I would say for the first like, I don't know, 10 or so fastballs he threw, maybe 15. It was mostly fine. It did start off
Starting point is 00:39:19 in like the 95 range, then peaked at 98, and then kind of tailed off. So I don't know if there's anything there. Yeah. All right. Yeah. I mean, just something to watch.
Starting point is 00:39:29 Obviously, Zach Wheeler coming back from that shoulder, and we invested a good amount in him. So let's pay attention to that moving forward. We'll take a quick break, and when we return, we'll hit some news and notes here on fantasy baseball today. All right, so let's get into some news and notes. Lucas G. Lito was officially placed on the I.O. with that left abdominal strain.
Starting point is 00:39:46 He said he feels significantly better, and he's optimistic that he'll require a minimum-length stay. Mackenzie Gore has been added to the Padres Taxi Squad. So there is a chance that he can. start on Friday if Blake Snell cannot go. I believe Snell is going to throw a bullpen session on Wednesday and then a decision after that. Ryan McMahon was not in the lineup Tuesday due to calf soreness. Nelson Cruz was a late scratch with a tight groin. He was replaced by Lane Thomas. AJ Pollock was placed on the I.O. with that strained right hamstring, but he expects it to be
Starting point is 00:40:18 a near minimum stay. What he said was 10 or 11 days. So hopefully with E.J. Pollock. Tommy Fam exited Tuesday's game after colliding with his teammate, Nick Senzel. in the outfield. X-rays on his left hand were negative. David Fletcher placed on the IL with a left hip strain. Andrew Velasquez started at shortstop. Blue Jays manager Charlie Montoyo said that he expects Danny Jansen to miss several weeks with a left oblique strain. So we should get consistent playing time with Alejandro Kirk. John Gray said he expects to return from the 10-day IL when first eligible on April 19th. Corey Kinebel was placed on the COVID-IL Tuesday as they await his test results. He did not pitch on Monday because he was dealing with flu-like symptoms.
Starting point is 00:41:01 If he tests negative for COVID, then he could return quickly. If it's positive, I think it could be up to a week. So something to watch there with Cenebel. Twins reliever Jorge Alcala went to the IL with right elbow inflammation. Scott, don't you love when I ask you a question? And then like the very next day, something happens that completely changes it. Does this mean that we should be stashing Yuan Duran? You know, I had so little conviction in that answer I gave on
Starting point is 00:41:28 the podcast that I ended up changing it in the first edition of bullpen report, which I wrote after the podcast. So I have Yohan Duran as the top choice to roster from the Twins bullpen. But like, I think that might be the messiest closer situation of all, frankly. Like, if you're in a league where Anthony Bender is available, and I know he, I know he blew a second save today, but he issued a walk. And, you know, they manufactured. to run off that walk, so I'm not worried about Anthony Bender's job security. If you're in a league where Anthony Bender's still available, he's only 42% rostered, you don't need to be thinking about the Twins' bullpen situation.
Starting point is 00:42:07 Just add Anthony Bender. Can I go back to one thing? Sure. We don't expect Gabriel Moreno to have a chance to get called up in the next couple of weeks, do we? They're not talking like that. No, I mean, he got hardly any time in the minors last year. Yeah, he's played 35 games above A-ball.
Starting point is 00:42:27 Yeah. I mean, it's a name to keep in mind because he's the sort of talent that could be propelled quickly to the majors. I mean, most people expect him to be up at some point this year. I just think it's a little too early for the Blue Jays to be thinking that with him. The Blue Jays, yeah, he's a top 10 prospect across the board. Blue Jays seemingly have a factory where they create catchers who strike out 12% of the time and put up big power numbers in the miners. It's really weird. I feel like Danny Jansen was that guy
Starting point is 00:42:59 Alejandro Kirk and now Gabriel Moreno who seems to be the most talented of the bunch. Yeah, hopefully Moreno works out better than those other two so far. Lucas Sims began a rehab assignment at AAA on Tuesday. Trevor's story is doubtful to play Wednesday as he deals with an illness that comes one day after they said he was likely to play on Tuesday. So frustrating.
Starting point is 00:43:22 Robbie Grossman left Tuesday's game with right groin tightness. Taiwan Walker was placed on the I.O. with right shoulder bursitis. Luis Patino placed on the I.O. with an oblique strain, not even a week in, and people are just dropping across the board. Josh Fleming will take Patino's spot
Starting point is 00:43:37 in the raised rotation. Oduble Herrera started a rehab assignment on Tuesday. Luis Castillo threw a bullpen session, and the team remains optimistic. He'll be able to return by the end of the month. Zach Allen is expected to make his season debut on Saturday against the New York Mets.
Starting point is 00:43:54 A few lineup notes, Kevin Bissio has now set three, three games in a row in favor of Santiago Espinal. So in the deepest of leagues, AL only, a name to watch there. Even with AJ Pollack out, Andrew Vaughn was not in the lineup again on Tuesday against Matt Brash, a right-handed pitcher. And then Dominic Smith has started just two of six games for the New York Mets, including Tuesday against a right-handed pitcher.
Starting point is 00:44:20 A few waiver wire hitters I wanted to mention here, Gavin Lux, we haven't really talked about so far, but he went two for three with a double, two RBI on Tuesday. He is 65% rostered and has started all four of the Dodgers games. Chris, would you be looking to add Gavin Lux? I guess in shallower leagues because he is 65% rostered. Yeah, I mean, I still think he has, the biggest question he has to answer is whether he can hit lefties. And I'm not sure I have much faith in that. But, you know, the fact that he's been in the lineup so far is a good sign.
Starting point is 00:44:54 And, you know, I think he's going to get a chance in the wake of the AJ Pollock trade. I think he's going to get a consistent chance moving forward. So, yeah, I mean, one of the biggest things is he's been like 94th percent on sprint speed so far in his major league career. It hasn't really translated into stolen bases. And I don't know how much the Dodgers are going to let him run. But that's a potential way that he can inflate his value. If he can be, you know, a 10 to 15 stolen base guy while, you know, maybe hitting 270. Scott, how would you rank?
Starting point is 00:45:25 Gavin Lux, Jeremy Pena, C.J. Abrams, and Bryson Stott. Well, Pena's number one. I think you have to put Lux, too, if you're looking for somebody in your lineup right away. But if you're not, if you're just stashing for upside,
Starting point is 00:45:42 I'd go Abrams too. And I think I'd go Stott over Lux as well. Yeah, I don't know. I think Lux legit hit the two balls he hit tonight. were legitimately hit hard over 100 miles per hour. Yeah, they were like over 105. But his average exit velocity coming in was pretty bad. I know that CJ Abrams wasn't the lineup on Tuesday.
Starting point is 00:46:06 He was batting ninth against Alex Cobb, a right-handed pitcher. And in that game, he went 0-4-1. Actually, it's still going right now. 0-for-1 with two walks and a strikeout. All right, we've reached the point of the podcast where we have to talk about Connor Joe and Stephen Kwan because Conor Doe is 47% rostered, and Stephen Kwan is 67% rostered, and they just keep doing things. Connor Doe went one for three with a double, two walks, three runs scored.
Starting point is 00:46:34 Kwan, one for two, two walks, in RBI, a run scored. He has reached base 17 times in 22 plate appearances, does not have a single strikeout. He did attempt. Did swing and miss today, though. Oh, wow, okay. Technically. Finally had a swing and miss. Technically, I believe it was a swing and miss.
Starting point is 00:46:54 I'm pretty sure it was a check swing. He attempted a steal as well. He was, it was in the first inning, but he was thrown out. I mean, I was, I'm happy to see him try and run, at least. But yeah, as we've said, each podcast so far, please go out and add Stephen Kwan and or Connor Joe, if they are available in your leagues. It didn't take Joe long to get up to become the Rocky's leadoff hitter again.
Starting point is 00:47:19 It's three straight games. now that he's batted lead off for them. And he's been doing it on the road as well as at home. It's hard to, because obviously Kwan is getting more headlines right now, more attention. His roster rate is 20% higher, I think, than Joe's. And so it gets back to the idea of who are you more likely to miss out on if you don't take a shot on him now? Probably Kwan.
Starting point is 00:47:43 But I think Joe has more overall potential for your fantasy team. I think so, too. Steven Kwan I think we're It really It comes down to the steals I think if Kwan can be Like a 15 plus steel guy
Starting point is 00:47:57 I have no reason to believe he will He wasn't that's that's how I mean His sprint speed right now is 79th percentile His minor league track record suggests You know 10-ish So like I don't yeah I think if
Starting point is 00:48:11 Because I think Connor Joe can legitimately be a 285 25 homer guy And I think Kwan I think 15 home runs like yes he's the story of baseball so far I think 15 home runs would be a really
Starting point is 00:48:31 really good outcome for Stephen Kwan this season maybe I'm being too harsh on him but the exit velocity number so far are pretty middling to bad I would say his max exit below is 108 108 103 average is 85 now he's had one 77 game stretch where he's hit for power in the miners.
Starting point is 00:48:53 So I do think, like, Kwan could be, I don't, he'll be better than Luis Arias, but he could be closer to the Luis Araya's range of hitters in the long run. I do think Joe has a stronger skill set as a hitter. I agree with that. I would take Connor Joe as well. what we've seen so far, I think Kwan is a really, really unique player
Starting point is 00:49:22 where even if he hits only 10 homers with 10 steals, if he hits like 300 and scores a bunch of runs and he has like a 400 OBP, that's going to be super valuable. Like I watched him a lot today and like the pitches he was taking
Starting point is 00:49:40 was like his eye is so good. So good. He's really impressive to watch. I just, I do wonder, and this is my concern with mediocre to bad power guys who rely on play discipline, is like, at what point to do pitchers realize, well, I don't really need to nibble. I mean, how much control do pitchers have over that, really? Like, I feel like, I feel like Kwan, sorry, is more in control of the situation than the pitcher is, frankly.
Starting point is 00:50:08 Yeah. Yeah, I mean, I guess we'll see. As pitchers start to test him more, can he take advantage? of that. Will he be able to do that? Especially against better competition as the season goes along. So it's going to be interesting to watch for sure. Steven Kwan, just really unique player. He's a must add player.
Starting point is 00:50:27 I don't want to like, I've moved him into my top 45 or 50 at outfield. I'm not quite as, you know, aggressive as Scott, but I think that's a philosophical thing because I moved Kahn and Joe to the same range. Yeah. I did the same thing, by the way, Chris. I was updating this on Tuesday.
Starting point is 00:50:42 I moved Joe up to 51 and Kwan up to 52. Yeah, I did 49 and 50. Yeah. So, yeah. But who knows? Maybe I'll move them up again after today's action. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:50:54 I mean, look, that's a really aggressive move given that we've seen five games. Right. In deeper leagues, I wanted to mention Scott, like every night I've mentioned this guy so far. And he just keeps hitting so far. Owen Miller, two for five with two more doubles. And he started three straight games at first base. It looks like he has taken that job away from Bobby Bradley. And he is a 305 career.
Starting point is 00:51:16 hitter in the minors. Again, the deepest leagues, A-O-only, you know, maybe 15-team mix. I just think that he is a name to watch. Owen. Yeah, I'm getting some Thai-France vibes here from Owen Miller. I have the name right, don't I? Yeah, Owen Miller. I've given some Thai-France vibes here where he's going to be first and second base eligible, at least on CBS. And batting average overpower. Is it even going to be 20 Homer power? I don't know. But Yeah, somebody to keep an eye on and possibly add in those deepest leagues. Speaking of eligibility, I believe that Bobby Witt, Jr., after today, we'll have third-based eligibility on CBS.
Starting point is 00:51:57 I believe today was his fifth game, so that helps, obviously. Shortstop and third-based eligibility now. Some potential pitcher ads, maybe in deeper leagues, not as exciting, of course, as the names we mentioned earlier, but Drew Smiley threw five shutout against the pirates. Nestor Cortez picking up where he left off against the Blue Jays, four-and-a-third shutout with five-strikes. Andrew Heaney was solid in his Dodger debut, four and a third.
Starting point is 00:52:21 He allowed one unearned run with five strikeouts. Chris Archer was solid against the Dodgers, four shutout with three strikeouts. And then Madison Bumgarner was okay against the Houston Astros, which is a really tough lineup. Five innings, one run, two strikeouts there. Chris, do you have maybe a name or two here that you are interested in? Maybe in deeper league. Smiley, Cortez, Heaney, Archer, Madbom. Even in a 15 team league, I think Heaney and.
Starting point is 00:52:46 And Cortez are the only ones I would be interested in. I would say Hini over Cortez. There's more strikeout potential, I think. He did throw his curveball was much harder today. I think it was like five miles per hour. Yeah, they were teaching him a different pitch. They were teaching him that sweeper that all these teams are talking about, which is really more like a slider than a curve ball.
Starting point is 00:53:10 It's hard to classify. And that would explain why it was harder. But yeah. Yeah, his forcing fastball was down basically one mile per hour and his curveball was up three and a half miles per hour. So that pretty much tells you. But he was getting a ton of wiffs with it.
Starting point is 00:53:24 Yeah, nine swing and misses on 31 pitches, had a 37 CSW percentage. I'm not going to try to say it. I'll just do the acronym. So yeah, I think that was a promising start for Andrew Heaney. He's never lacked for potential.
Starting point is 00:53:41 He's a weird pitcher. There was a lot of historically has done a lot of sinkers up in the zone. Today, it was mostly forcing fastballs. So that's interesting, but yeah, I think he's the most interesting of this group. I think he's a really sneaky pickup because
Starting point is 00:53:56 it's not like the start is going to generate a lot of headlines since it was so short, but he did exactly what you were hoping to see him do and what we didn't see from him in spring training, frankly. That caused his stock to drop. But you know, I love Nestor Cortez, too. And like, this start against the Blue Jays was in a
Starting point is 00:54:12 two-star week, the one that was scary. And he, and he, it only ended up being a four and a third because, four and a third innings, because every pitcher's first turn is. I mean, look, that's one of the longest starts of the year so far. Exactly. But, yeah, I mean, that fastball spin rate was up. The velocity was up a little.
Starting point is 00:54:33 He just looked, he just looked like he picked up where he left off from last year when I think a lot of people weren't buying what he did down the stretch. So I know I had to drop him in a couple 12-team leagues just to because there was no one else to drop to take advantage of some of these guys who are off to hot starts. But, you know, I wish I still had Nestor Cortez.
Starting point is 00:54:56 41% rostered is Nestor Cortez, 44% for Andrew Heaney. Scott, you're taking Nestor over Heaney? Yeah, I mean, I think so because we've seen more success from him, but the ceiling is higher for Heaney. All right. Let's get into,
Starting point is 00:55:13 I wanted to mention a few, Studs being studs on the hitter side of thing. Things Jose Ramirez, three for five with a grand slam. Luis Robert, one for three with his first homer. He had two more steals. He now has four steals in four games. The White Sox traditionally don't run very much. If this is like foreshadowing for the season for Luis Robert,
Starting point is 00:55:34 I mean, he could steal 30 plus bases. It would not surprise me. Say, a Suzuki, double dong, now has three home runs. It helps facing Pirates pitching. I'm not going to take anything away from him. He's been awesome so far. George Springer, there you go, Chris. Two for four with his first steal of the season.
Starting point is 00:55:50 Cedric Mullins hit a grand slam, which he did off of a lefty. You'll love to see that if you have him on your team. He just missed a game-tying home run off Josh Hader in the ninth inning as well. It hit off like the top of the wall. wound up being a double. They stranded him because Baltimore, obviously.
Starting point is 00:56:07 But yeah, great game for Cedric Mullins. Salvador Perez, a double dong. His first two of the season, Nolan Aronado on his Chris Tower's Revenge Tour hit his third home run of the year. Wander Franco now has multiple hits in four of his first five games and then Brandon Belt
Starting point is 00:56:22 Last I saw was two for three with his second home run Scratch that two for four with his second home run of the year and he is off to a great start himself. The call to the bullpen What is the most pertinent of these? I guess we'll just start with the Reds.
Starting point is 00:56:39 Art Warren pitched in the seventh inning with the game's high. facing 8, 9, and 1 in the lineup. Tony Santian pitched in the 8th with the game tied, 3, 4, and 5 in the lineup. I mean, Scott, does this bring us anywhere closer to figuring out the Reds bullpen? No, I mean, I thought by holding him out of the first three games
Starting point is 00:57:00 and preserving him for that first straightforward save chance, the Reds were revealing that they wanted our war in closing. But clearly not. I mean, he might be their most trusted reliever, and Santian is clearly their second most trusted reliever, but they're not going to follow traditional bullpen rolls. And look, David Bell didn't at any point last year either. So I still think our Warren's the one to have.
Starting point is 00:57:24 Feeling pretty good about my Lucas Sims shares. I don't know why he would treat Lucas Sims any differently than last year, though, especially now that he has better alternatives. Because. I'm wrong about that. I clearly am not good at guessing what David Bell is thinking. but, uh,
Starting point is 00:57:41 man, Scott, I don't know. Because I think Lucas Sims is good. That's really what it comes down to. I think he's better than those guys. I think both of those guys are good too. Look,
Starting point is 00:57:50 between the Reds, the Mariners, and the Giants, right? It's David Bell, Scott Service, and Gabe Kapler. I mean,
Starting point is 00:57:56 we've got a three-way Spider-Man meme going on here because it's, it's so frustrating to try and figure these guys out on, on a game-s-s-game basis. I think a big thing with, like, Warren and Santian,
Starting point is 00:58:07 especially is like, and you can throw Lucas Simpson, in there and a lot of these guys is just like, none of these guys have any kind of track record really. Our Warren had, he has some closing experience in the minors. Right, right. But I mean, like, the sample sizes of these
Starting point is 00:58:21 guys being effective pitchers is very limited. Like, Camilla Duval, as we've talked about, like his AAA numbers were not nearly as good as his stretch in the majors last season. Like, I get why these managers have, like, it's frustrating for us because we
Starting point is 00:58:37 just want them to just pick one. But like, I understand why if you don't necessarily know if any one guy is better, why you wouldn't necessarily have a hierarchy set yet. It'll, it'll, I think it'll sort itself out eventually. Yeah, and I actually get it from a baseball perspective, the gamesmanship involved. It's if you have a revolving door of who you're going to use at the back end, it's kind of hard for the opposing manager to game plan against that. So I get it. It's just, it's frustrating for fantasy. For the Mariners, Drew's second rider pitched in the seventh inning in a game that they were down two to one.
Starting point is 00:59:12 Diego Castillo pitched in the eighth. For the Cubs, Michael Givens was used in the eighth inning to face the 9-1 and 2 in the order. With a two-run lead, he gave up a solo home run. David Robertson pitched in a ninth. He converted his second save for the Pirates. Chris Stratton was used in the eighth inning down two-zip, and David Bednar pitched in the ninth inning down two to one. For the Marlin, Scott mentioned it, Anthony Bender.
Starting point is 00:59:36 He pitched in the ninth inning in a tie game. A weird way to lose the game. He gave up a walk, a stolen base, a wild pitch, and then a walkoff fielder's choice. Not really Anthony Bender's fault there. For the Cardinals, good news. Giovanni Gallegos, a clean ninth inning for his first save in a game where the Cardinals led from the fourth inning on.
Starting point is 00:59:54 So this was a very conventional save opportunity, and Gallegos got the save and he converted it. Good news there. For the Oakland A's Lutrovino was on for a one-run save in the 10th inning. obviously he's got the ghost runner on second base. He gives up two runs, he takes the loss. For the Rockies, right back to Daniel Bard. Like nothing ever happened.
Starting point is 01:00:13 Three run lead, and he converts his second save of this season. Okay, that was a lot. To stream or not to stream, we'll wrap up with some streamers here. And honestly, not a great list at all. On Wednesday, Zach Thompson versus the Cubs, Chris Paddock versus the Dodgers, Merrill Kelly versus the Astros. I mean, I like Kelly.
Starting point is 01:00:35 but I don't think I'm feeling too good about streaming him against the Astros. I think I'm interested in Paddock. I want to see what he looks like, but I'm not going to stream him against the Dodgers. I'm interested in Zach Thompson. And I might be more willing to stream him against the Cubs than either of those two guys. Yeah, I don't really want to play any of these. Scott,
Starting point is 01:00:55 I know you mentioned yesterday. If you had to choose one, it would be Merrill Kelly, but obviously it's the Astros. Right. So not great. It's not great choices. For Thursday,
Starting point is 01:01:04 it gets even better. Miles Michael is at the Brewers. J.T. Brubaker versus the Nationals, Dane Dunning versus the Angels. Kyle Freeland versus the Cubs. That start is in Coresfield. and then Raver San Martine at the Dodgers. J.T. Brewbaker is someone I find myself somewhat interested in, but I can't tell anyone to start him, even against Washington. So now I, my preference would be to avoid all of these and maybe keep an eye on Brewbaker. and Dunning. All right, yeah. I'm all right with that.
Starting point is 01:01:38 Scott, I don't know if you're here. You kind of look like if your podcast had a, oh no, here you go. Now he's out and now he's back in. Scott, you were kind of frozen there, just like an eight-bit version of yourself, and it kind of reminded me of your video game podcast. So that's where I was going with that.
Starting point is 01:01:53 Okay. Did you have anything you wanted to add about Miles Michaelis? That's where we left off. I mean, he's usually pretty steady, and the Brewers lineup isn't that great. So, like, I just, I don't know who lives in such a way that here in week two, they're picking up Miles Michaelis off the waiver wire to start them on a main day. I mean, it's just like.
Starting point is 01:02:14 I think I saw Reverson Martin was started in like 55% of NFBC main event leagues. Those are 15 team leagues, but, uh, yeah, it didn't go well. No, it did not. Uh, yeah, I agree. Like, if you don't want to stream early on in the season in a daily lineup league, do not do it. You don't have to do it. But you don't, look, you are better off picking up a good middle reliever than starting most of these guys tomorrow or like especially Thursday. Fair enough.
Starting point is 01:02:46 We'll wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching fantasy baseball. Today will be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.

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