Fantasy Baseball Today - Mailbag! Ashby Injured, Shift Effect on Pitchers, Nico Hoerner Outlook & More (2/10 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: February 10, 2023

Before we get to your questions let's start with the latest news and notes (4:08). Aaron Ashby is hurt and AJ Puk will compete for a rotation spot. ... We start with your Apple Podcast Review question...s (13:10). ... What pitchers will be affected by the shift restrictions (16:28)? ... How to pick your keepers (26:10). ... What goes into ranking prospects (31:03)? ... Let's grade the trade (37:12). ... Is Nico Hoerner a good fallback plan at second base (42:45)? ... What are the best ways to set up a dynasty league (47:40)? ... We wrap up with the rest of your questions (52:03). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 Into a mailbag edition of fantasy baseball today on February 10th. Frank Stamphill joined by the Chrisies, the Chris's, the Chris's, the Chris Eye, Towers, and the Welsh. We're going to answer a bunch of your questions. We're going to have mailbag pods coming once per week leading up to the start of the season, so continue to send in your emails or drop a question with an Apple rating and review. Welsh, I know we're talking baseball, obviously, but can't. Congrats, man. I mean, Kevin Durant to the Phoenix Suns. That's pretty awesome. I was up when it happened. I was actually up live doing some stuff and watching this stream. And then all of a sudden, it's like, did Kevin Durant just get traded to the Phoenix Suns? I'm a Phoenix Suns fan. Did Fantasy Basketball for a long time? We mortgage the future. But I'm not going to lie. If I told you, I immediately started looking at the tickets and the ticket prices and my immediate jealousy of what I, did I see you post that you might have put in a 19. to one Phoenix Suns championship ticket right before the trade.
Starting point is 00:01:40 I did. I saw it come down from Woj and Shams and I was like, you know what? Let me go check. See if it's still up. Got it at 19 to 1. I think it's plus 460 now. So I feel pretty good about that one. That's pretty good. Towers. What's up, buddy? I mean, look, we're Knicks and Heat fans. It is what it is. We're not winning anything. Uh, no. Yeah. No. I don't I I'm a heat fan kind of, I guess, but I don't really have. have any emotional connection to it anymore. So, you know, see if there's some cheap Nets tickets now that they've completely blown it up. They still might actually be pretty competitive.
Starting point is 00:02:16 So, you know, it could be a buying opportunity. And you name three guys on their roster that'll stay in the roster? Yeah. Yeah. Cam Thomas, right? He is rushing it right now. Three straight 40 points. Yeah. Nick Claxton.
Starting point is 00:02:30 He's awesome. That's a guy. Fantasy team, yeah. Um. Here we go. Jason Kidd? No, no. I'm at a loss. I give you one.
Starting point is 00:02:48 Someone who used to be on their team, he's there once again. Spencer Dinwiddie. Anywho. That's who I was looking for. I think I can name more New York Liberty players at this point than Brooklyn Nets. Hey, New York Liberty. New York's team, who would have thought? Anywho, let's get into baseball because that's what people are here for.
Starting point is 00:03:04 Before we get into the mailbag questions, we do have some news and notes, and that's right. It has begun. Injuries are abound. Aaron Ashby is dealing with a left shoulder injury and will be behind the Brewers, other starting pitchers as they enter spring training. It's especially concerning because Ashby was dealing with shoulder inflammation last year and the team signed Wade Miley this offseason. So Towers, as interesting as Ashby is, he gets whiffs, he gets ground balls. This is pretty worrisome.
Starting point is 00:03:38 Yeah, I'm not going to say that he's not going to contribute this season. Obviously, pitching. The nature of pitching means that there will always be opportunities in the rotation at some point. But I don't think he really matters for your standard 12 team leagues after this news. He's not going to open the season in the rotation, I would guess. And you might not be ready for the start of the season anyway. So I would pretty much take him off my 12 team draft. boards. Well, is this a full fade on, on Aaron Aspie or we just kind of wait and see?
Starting point is 00:04:10 I mean, I think there's a little bit of wait and see, but I agree with Towers 100%. He's a fade. He's not a draft. If I'm in like some super deep league, maybe in a PC type of formats, I'd probably have a little bit more interest in those deeper rosters. But shoulder fatigue, this is the exact type of thing. Like, we talk about guys that are injury prone were weary or maybe you try to be agnostic about like with like Buxon and stuff like that. But guys that are going into the year with an injury. Those are fades for me. I don't want to mess with those guys because we don't know the magnitude of they've already got their rotation set. Do they just want to put them in relief for the year thinking long term? No thanks. The only thing I'll point out is this time last year,
Starting point is 00:04:47 we got Zach Wheeler, Luis Castillo, and Zach Gallen, all with shoulder injuries and all three were awesome. Granted, all three of those also have much longer track records than someone like Aaron Ashby, but if you play in a deeper keeper or Dynasty League and maybe you're kind of rebuild maybe a capitalized and look at it as a buying opportunity for Aaron Ashby. Jared Walsh is nearing a full recovery from thoracic outlet surgery, and he's currently penciled in as the Strongside platoon at first base for the Angels. Towers, any sleeper appeal for Jared Walsh, who once hit 30 home runs? No, because technically 29, not to well, actually.
Starting point is 00:05:26 Sorry. I didn't really like him coming off that season anyway. I was pretty much out on him last year. I don't think the skill set was ever particularly strong. So I think he's a little only material. You know what I love about podcasting is that if you say something with enough confidence, you can almost make everyone believe it, right? So that was my thinking with Jared Walsh.
Starting point is 00:05:48 I only knew because I had pulled the page up already. Yeah. That was the only reason. Bad job by me. I didn't write it down. I just kind of assume he got there. But he didn't. You're right.
Starting point is 00:05:55 29 home runs for Walsh in 2021. Michael Brantley said last week that he's hopeful of being ready for opening day. He had surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder last August. More of a deeper name, five outfielder leagues, just someone if you need batting average. Remember the name.
Starting point is 00:06:14 Obviously the Astros lineup is still really good. Nixon Zell has spent most of the offseason wearing a walking boot and it's unknown if he'll be ready for opening day. The sky is blue. The last time I checked, grass is green. He's undergone two surgeries to repair a toe on his left foot and as a result, the Reds acquired outfielder
Starting point is 00:06:33 Will Benson from the Guardians for Justin Boyd, who was the 73rd overall pick in last year's draft. Welsh, anything on Benson. I know he was pretty interesting in the minors last year, 278, 17 home runs, 16 steals, played 288 games with the Guardians last year, hit 182. You made me laugh, by the way, with the Sins-El thing,
Starting point is 00:06:55 because when you're like, he's been in a boot for most of the offseason, I was like, oh, you meant his career. the entire career. Benson makes sense in the move. I've never been the biggest Will Benson guy, if I'm being honest with you. I know there's a lot of other people that do really like him because of what popped in the minors. But this is the first real big pop. The year before in 2021 in AA, 14 homers, 14 still in bases, but hit 221.
Starting point is 00:07:18 Hit a buck 61 when he moved up to AAA. And then last year, he kind of figured out AAA. He hit 182 in the majors. I just don't think he's a type of guy that's going to really figure it out. at the major league level, though. He's got huge, like crazy intangibles, but he has held a 30% strikeout rate or higher at almost every stop of his professional career since 2016. And that really hasn't changed. So he's got a huge, huge power speed upside. I just don't think he's ever going to really, really be able to tap into it, which I think is going to be hard for him to gain a gig.
Starting point is 00:07:49 Though, if there's a place, Cincinnati would be a place that he could thrive. And if he got an everyday gig, I wouldn't be shocked to see like 15, 15 out of him. But this would be, kind of be talked about before. It's probably like an L-only type of move. All right. That is Will Benson now with the Reds. AJ Puck will be part of a competition to be in the rotation for the Oakland A's season. They also have Paul Blackburn, who was really good in the first half last year and then completely fell apart. James Caprillion, Drew Rusinski, who they signed from the KBO, Shintaro Fujinami, who they signed from Japan, and they still have a few prospects in Ken Waldichuk and
Starting point is 00:08:25 J.P. Sears. Puck was great last year as a reliever. 3.1. 1-2-E-R-A, 1.15 whip, 10.3K per 9. But Towers, Puck has not thrown more than 66 and a third inning since 2017. That is my worry with him. Yeah, I mean, he didn't throw more than two and a third innings in any of his outings last season. I think he only had eight appearances with two innings or more. So not sure how he's going to fare, but he's an incredibly talented pitcher. And the fact that we saw him succeed in a relief role,
Starting point is 00:08:59 I think of someone like Danny Duffy. I mean, this is probably six or seven years ago, but he was someone who started out as a starter, what made the move to the bullpen and then came back as a starter and actually was really good, was able to, you know, sustain the gains he made as a reliever in the starting rotation. So I, if he's in the rotation, I mean, my expectations aren't going to be super high, but I'm going to be interested. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:09:26 All right. Again, then ain there, AJ Puck. Let's pay attention. see what happens in spring training. Some extension news, Bo Bichette and the Blue Jays avoided arbitration by agreeing to a three-year extension, and Hugh Darvish signed a six-year,
Starting point is 00:09:40 $108 million extension, which will take him through his age 42 season, or he'll be 42 at the end of that year. Anyway, that you look at it, he's going to be 42 years old, which they also have Bogart's, which the contract ends at 41 years old. Every contract now,
Starting point is 00:09:58 like every star, star player seems to sign through their like age 42 season and it's like there aren't that many 40 year olds actually playing baseball at any given point. But like apparently in 2029, we're just going to half the league is going to be 40. This is all it's it's like competitive balance payroll stuff. It's exactly. They give these longer contracts to lower the average annual value because the average annual value is what gets counted for the competitive payroll or competitive balance tax, whatever they call it. So there, this is like, it's really like a three or four year, $108 million deal that they're just like, it's basically backloading like the Max Scher's contract with the nationals, right, where they defer a bunch of money. It's a different version of that, I think. Though pitcher money is kind of be, pitchers like the new quarterbacks.
Starting point is 00:10:52 Like you are seeing the longevity of a lot of these guys and this is obvious. Like the position player stuff, I got a hard time. even like Zanda Bogart's is going to like hold up until his 40s. Pitching is obviously a little bit different on the wear and tear. I agree it's like controlling the average salary, but I do wonder if there is something that is going on in baseball or the way that the rules are changing and constructing where these teams know maybe a little bit more on how these guys are able to hold and maintain.
Starting point is 00:11:17 Because it is ironic that you see a lot of these guys that are getting these contracts past 40 happen to be these big strikeout pitchers, which you almost would kind of think those wouldn't be the guys. You would think it'd be maybe more control type of players that are taking off a lot of velocity, and you're seeing like Verlanders and Scherzer and guys like Darvish, you know, with bigger, you know, with bigger fastballs being able to keep that money. It's just, it's fascinating. It's beyond me that they could sign this contract, but good for Darvish. We do have a comment in the YouTube chat. I wanted to mention Kyle Mueller question
Starting point is 00:11:45 mark definitely should have mentioned him in the Oakland A's competition for their rotation. They traded for him this offseason in the Sean Murphy trade. So he's definitely going to be part of that mix as well, Kyle Mueller with the A's. Let's get into our. our mailbag questions. And for those watching us live on YouTube, if you have a question, you can throw it in the chat and perhaps we'll get to some of those at the end of the podcast as well. We'll start off with the Apple podcast review questions. This one's from JRA 19881. A keeper question can only keep three in a head-to-head points league. Value goes up $5 each year. Garrett Cole would go for $55 or more in our league. So he has Garrett Cole for 47,
Starting point is 00:12:25 Jacob de Grom for 24, Julio Rodriguez for 15, and Dustin May for 7. Need three. We all agree J. Rod is a lock. So we lock in. I'm going to present this. To me, Jacob de Grom is an absolute no-brainer here at that price.
Starting point is 00:12:42 I know there's a concern. Okay, so we've locked down those two. Now it becomes about Dustin May and that awesome contract or where are you at in your league and paying big money on Garikl. I would assume that's probably a higher auction type of, of value into the 50s. Sometimes I'll get into the 60s. If you're in win now, I'm going to go with Cole still because it's the top of the
Starting point is 00:13:01 group. But Dustin May is a really good value. So if I'm a middling team, I am going to keep Dustin May because you're going to probably able to hold on to him for four or five years. And the one thing that you can think of is like, what are the chances that you could get Cole back for cheaper than what it would cost to get Dustin May back if that's the, or a similar pitcher? Like I really like Dustin May.
Starting point is 00:13:26 I think he's got breakout potential this season. I think he could be, you know, this year's Tony Gonsolin. So like if you keep coal for 47, can you get a pitcher like that for, you know, $12? I think that's kind of iffy given the likely inflation. So it might be like you can get Dustin May for seven and get Garrett Cole back for 55 versus keeping coal for 47 and then whatever you could get for that $12 to $15, I think you're probably better off keeping May, but generally speaking, if the elite player is any kind of discount, you're probably better off keeping them. Yeah. And I throw into just one context in, this is actually a football
Starting point is 00:14:09 keeper leagues I've done, where when you're a couple years into these leagues and people start having really great deals, what ends up happening is those top teams with those great deals, hey, maybe someone's got Corbyn Burns at, you know, $20 or something, you then have the awesome free agents that go in and the big teams unload money. I were just recall in a football league, Sequin Barclay got thrown back into a pool and where guys would go for like 40 or 50. He went for like 75. He went from crazy amounts of money in those back years because of the deals. So to JR, whatever, whatever. Like, if you're in a situation like that, like Cole is probably a no brainer if you know the wolves are going to be attacking. I still think he's a guy, but Dustin May is a really cool value there.
Starting point is 00:14:48 Yeah, I think I would go with Garrett Cole as well and you could probably like Dustin May is someone to me that he's still kind of going to be overlooked throughout the salary cap, throughout the auction, and you'll probably, like, maybe you have to spend 10, 12, like $15 max. Like, there'll be a little bit inflation on him. But I think you're right, Welsh. I think, you know, someone like Garrick Cole
Starting point is 00:15:06 in a league like this, you could probably see him go 55, 60 or even push above that. From JJ Power 19, I know we can't predict what may happen without shifts, but we keep mentioning that we shouldn't emphasize drafting steals and batting average. My question is, why aren't we focused factoring in those same predictions for pitching.
Starting point is 00:15:26 If we are projecting that the rule changes are going against pitchers, then shouldn't we adjust now by drafting swing and miss pitchers as a priority? And Towers, I think this is an interesting question, and it's something I wrote about in my bus 1.0. I have Sandy Alcansara as a bust, and it hurts me to say, I'm such a fraud. I loved him last year. But if you look at his strikeout rate compared to other aces that go in his range,
Starting point is 00:15:52 and these new rules, I think that there is a chance that Sandy Alcantara A, gives up more hits this year, has more runners on base, and as a result, he's going to be less efficient. We're drafting him because his best skill is volume and innings pitched.
Starting point is 00:16:08 If that comes back even a little bit, then you're also losing out on total strikeouts and how much that ERA and WIP actually matters to your team. So I still really like Sandy, but I think he's probably being a little bit overvalued based on what he did last year. Yeah, I mean, the Marlins actually, surprisingly,
Starting point is 00:16:24 were one of the most shift heavy teams in baseball last season. I'm not, they were fifth in shift rate. I'm not sure how, you know, whether that's going to change with a new manager. But I think the way I view it is like, so think about the value of something like FIPP, right? Field independent pitching. It's a very basic stat.
Starting point is 00:16:46 It's just strikeouts, walks, and home runs loud, and it tries to predict what a pitcher's ERA is. And like, as basic. as that is, and as little as that accounts for quality of contact and what happens when the ball is put into play, it's still a pretty good estimator of ERA because those three things, strikeouts, walks and home runs do dictate a significant portion of what of the runs that a pitcher gives up. Now we have Sierra and DRA and DPR, I think, is the new defensive staff from baseball prospectus and all kinds of different stuff that do a better job that then fit. But I still think that that's a good way to think about it, which is that results on balls and play matter a lot for pitchers, but not as much as they do for hitters, I guess is the way I would put it.
Starting point is 00:17:37 And then the stolen base thing, I think, is just that's, I think a non, not really a factor for how I'm thinking about pitchers. Like there will be some pitchers who are better or worse in this new environment as a result of it. steals for pitchers probably shouldn't really factor in. It's probably a handful of runs at the most over the course of a season in a way that's super hard to predict. So I think the way I view it is just the rule changes probably matter less for individual pitchers than they will for individual batters. Does that make sense?
Starting point is 00:18:14 I think so. Like it's just hard to narrow it down to which pitchers are going to. is going to be a league-wide effect. I think we can all agree on that, right? There's going to be slightly higher batting average. There's going to be more hits. And we can kind of single out the left-handed hitters who we think that's going to help.
Starting point is 00:18:30 But you're right, it's probably harder to figure out exactly which pitchers is going to hurt. But the ones that I think that it could hurt are the ones that have the lower strikeout rates and rely on ground balls as right-handed pitchers because, you know, we're probably going to see left-handed hitters do a little bit better. So Sandy Alcansara, Merrill Kelly, Miles Michaelis,
Starting point is 00:18:51 I don't think they're just going to completely fall off, but those are the first names that come to mind. I think the one thing, though, with like Sandy Alcantara, is he's so good at getting good results on balls and play that I just, I think it's probably going to matter less for him, but it could. It's entirely possible. The other way to think about it is like every single one of Corey Seeger's
Starting point is 00:19:12 plate appearances takes place as Corey Seeger, a left-handed batter who pulls the ball on the ground or on a line, 20% or 40% or 50% of any given pitchers' plate appearances are going to come against left-handed batters. And so it's just the changes are going to be, the effects of the shift ban are going to be concentrated among a handful of hitters, and it's going to be spread out among all the batters that pitchers face. Yeah, you're not saying it's not like a, as much as it's a,
Starting point is 00:19:46 league-wide effect, it's a league-wide effect to the percentage of those batters, to a percentage of those. So, I mean, you're just getting into like your fractional percentages and stuff. Yeah, I kind of agree overall. I think the best way you've put it is like the guy, I think the hitters are going to be the ones that are a major effect. I don't look, and I don't even really know how to quantify as much on the pitching, but the guys with the lower K rates seem a little bit more susceptible to losing fantasy value. So I think inherently like the question is like, should we be focusing more like strikeout pitchers. I kind of always am. I kind of always am looking for higher strikeout pitchers to help me out anyways. Obviously, some eating innings eaters can balance out,
Starting point is 00:20:23 you know, maybe your whip and Sandy obviously does that. But I'm always looking for high strikeout players in general. And we probably just won't know until the end of the season how this really is going to quantify to pitchers. But I think you both did like a really good job of breaking down both scenarios of what we're really actually looking at. To make one more point, like Noah Cindergarde is famously the worst pitcher in baseball at holding runners. That was instantly the name that came to mind. Mr. is another guy.
Starting point is 00:20:52 Remember, John Lester just like refused to throw pickoff throws for like years. He had like the yips on pickoff throws. If you guys remember that. And it didn't really affect those guys. Like no Cindergarde historically has been someone who underperformed his peripherals a little bit. You know, his career FIP is 304, his career ERAs 342.
Starting point is 00:21:13 So, you know, you could see that show up a little bit. John Lester actually overperformed his estimators for most of his career. So, like, I just steals, I don't think matter all that much. And the analytical side of the game has kind of shown that over the years with that idea that, like, if you're not successfully stealing at 75%, you're not even breaking even in terms of runs added or expected runs added. you know, the league might be at like 80% this year. That's still a pretty slim margin. One thing, not to keep belaboring this, but this is just like a really interesting point talking about this out loud.
Starting point is 00:21:54 One thing that we can't know until the season is over or unless we start to get stuff maybe out of camps that you can wonder on that I'm sitting here thinking about is what if the approach for pitchers becomes a little bit different? Sandy is one of the smartest pitchers in baseball, has one of the most dominant pitches in baseball in that change up. What if the approach becomes a tiny bit different for these guys, and they go for more strikeouts. You know, they're leaning less on their defense.
Starting point is 00:22:17 This doesn't really help the cause and we're going to go in circles and stuff like that, but a smart pitcher with a great arsenal, good command who can go deep into games, I mean, smart pitchers are going to pitch to contact and they're going to get out. That's something that Sandy does. What if that becomes a little bit less?
Starting point is 00:22:30 And what if you saw an uptick, not all of them? Like Merrill Kelly, I don't expect to like... Yeah, that's... But Sandy's a specific one, like, what if he started to go into that direction and we saw higher K numbers and those strikeouts became more prime. prominent because of being able to not lean on your defense a little bit more.
Starting point is 00:22:47 Yeah. Yeah. Like Miles Michaelis, probably not going to see a jump in strikeout. But I could see it with Sandy because he's always been a guy who seems like he could get more strikeouts than he does. Yeah, no, I think that's a really good call on Sandy because in 2021, his swinging strike rate was 13.3%. Last year, it came back a little bit to right around 12%. But if he can get that back up to 13%. I mean, you know, we could be looking at, you know, 9, 10K per 9 if everything works out for him. So that definitely would help. This next one's from Deiner Williams,
Starting point is 00:23:18 dear Alvin, Simon, and Theodore. Frank, do you know this one? Yeah, these are Power Rangers, right? Yep. This year, this year I'm taking my first shot at a few NFBC leagues, and I was wondering if you guys had any tips for helping a newbie in those more competitive money leagues.
Starting point is 00:23:36 One thing that I would point out to is NFBC does a great job with their ADP, They have an awesome tool where you can adjust the dates and you can look at the past two weeks, you can look at the past month. And I think it's really helpful to know which players are kind of moving up and down draft boards. You don't want to put too much stock into that,
Starting point is 00:23:55 but it helps understand the player pool more. So I would say Google NFBC ADP or go to nfc. SHGN.com slash ADP slash baseball and then just kind of mess around with their tools and see which players are moving up and down. And, you know, the players, get your guys. I would say, look, do that in any draft, but that's something you hear often with like the higher stakes community, which is like, you know, even if you have to jump
Starting point is 00:24:20 around or two, make sure you get your guys. So that's my advice. Yeah, get your, I mean, the things that are going to happen to you in your drafts, catchers are going to go much higher. It's a two catcher format. So catchers are just valued higher. Steals are going to be at a premium, regardless if you want it or not. And saves are going to be at a premium, especially the top end guys. It's going to go. Those two, I think steals and saves go at a higher rate that you're going to probably be comfortable with, especially if you played like, you know, just like home leagues and stuff like that. Like, closers go crazy high. Steals are going to be at an all-time premium because you're drafting so much. So make sure that you are prepared for catchers, steals, and saves. Yep. I think that's very well said. Email, send them into fantasy baseball at cbsi.com. That is the letter I. Not, you know, like I. From Jeremy in Louisiana, I play in a 10-te-te-te-te-tategories league,
Starting point is 00:25:12 categories being runs, home runs, RBI, steals OPS for hitters, and wins saves ERA-WIP K-P-9 for pitchers. We can keep six guys for only three consecutive years, and all my guys have been kept for only one year, so they are still eligible to be kept, and the six-keepers count as our first six-round draft picks. My guys that I feel are worth keeping, Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez,
Starting point is 00:25:38 Bichette, Matt Olson, Mookiee Betz, Jose Ramirez. How did you get all these players? Is he just bragging? Is this a brag email? What's the question? I don't know. Adelis Garcia, Justin Verlander, Shane McClainahan, and catch it off with, call me crazy, but my thought was to trade Judge and Verlander after coming off career years to maximize what I can get back for them and hopefully trade for a younger stud and draft picks. So I guess I don't understand like how the trading for draft picks work because you lose your first six picks, you know, or however many you keep, I presume. If you keep five, you lose your first five.
Starting point is 00:26:13 And in that kind of format, you just keep the best players, you know, like trading judge for younger keepers doesn't really make sense because he's the number one player or clearly a number one pick. You got to get Julio or Bobby Witt in that case, if that's what you're talking about. Yeah, and even that, like when you're talking about a two-year window, I don't even know if the, the, the, the gap between what judge is likely to do in the next three years is, I don't know if I realistically think any of the next three years, Bobby Witt's going to be better than Aaron Judge. It's certainly possible.
Starting point is 00:26:49 And I think Julio Rodriguez, because he was better as a rookie, I think has less room. But like, Aaron Judge is clearly ahead of those guys right now. And so it's just a question of how much you think he's going to regress over the next couple of seasons. And there's going to be significant regression.
Starting point is 00:27:05 but in this format where, you know, having Bobby Witt for $3 in a Keeper League versus Aaron Judge for 30, that's a significant difference. In this format, I really, I don't think there's any way to make up that gap. I kind of agree. I think it's very specific. Like the idea of like, hey, it could trade judge and blah, blah, blah. It's like there's only a handful of players you can get because I hate to tell you, friendo, you've got four of the first round picks already.
Starting point is 00:27:31 You have four first round picks. You've got an easy second round pick. If I'm throwing this out, by the way, I'm putting Olson back and I'm keeping Shane McClanahan. That's me. That's my six. I'm keeping one pitcher in the five hitters. So it's like you only have a handful of players you could even trade judge to
Starting point is 00:27:45 get. Maybe you could get a Tatis. You're not getting a Kunia. Probably not getting Tatis. Maybe you could get Soto. So you have to make that determination. I agree with Chris said here. I'm not really sure what you could do. If you could trade Verlander, I don't think he's in the cards here of what I would keep. I would obviously go get picks. And if someone
Starting point is 00:28:01 wants to overwhelm you with one of those really cool keepers in a one for one or something more okay. But dude, you got four first rounders, a second rounder in Shay McClanahan. I mean, that's my number one like dynasty pitcher anyway. So you're, it's a very, uh, fun, braggy email of amazing team that you have. I think the thought would be if you could turn Matt Olson and Justin Verlander into Austin Riley to name one player who's like a third rounder, you know, see if that's something you could do. Because then in that instance, I would probably keep him.
Starting point is 00:28:35 over Shane McClainahan. But like, that's the thing is whatever trade you do, you have to get someone back who's better than your sixth best player, who in this instance would be, I think either, I think Verland or Olson and McClanahan are probably all going to go in the same range. I think they're,
Starting point is 00:28:52 you know, in ADP, they're probably on the 35 to 50-ish range. So like you need to get someone better than any of those three. Yeah, or like he at the end where he's like, judge and Verlander, if you could trade judge in Verlander or judge in Olson,
Starting point is 00:29:04 and you could get, Tatis or you could get Soto. That's interesting, but man, like, you have such a small window of what you could do here. Explore it. You always should. Trades are fun. It's fun to think about that stuff. But at the end of the day, you can probably be pretty happy. And the rest of your league is probably not super happy with what you get to keep. Even with it being a 10-team league, it's, you'd probably need at least three of those players to get hurt to not win this thing. So, good luck, Jeremy. You've got a pretty good shot. One last thing on that, too. I was, I wasn't even considering or counting the 10 man league thing. People always do this. Like, hey, I'm in a 10 man
Starting point is 00:29:39 league. I can trade this awesome guy for these three guys. It's always quality versus quantity and stuff. I want the best players in 10 man league. Just give me the best players. I'll figure everything out. The pool is better. You could trade two or three guys. I want the best player. So even in the scenarios we're talking about if someone was like, hey, I'll offer, you know, Manny Machado for judge, you know, and maybe you get a little bit on top. I want the best player. I want judge. It's 10 man. the pool's even better. So take your, take your dudes and win your league. All right. This next one's from David, Dear Steer,
Starting point is 00:30:07 Turnbull and Shane. They're Spencer's. Yeah, they sure are. What should I take out of prospect rankings for Dynasty given that they often shift dramatically within the first couple of seasons of a prospect's career based on tiny sample sizes? Now, this guy also sent in a bunch of stats, which I appreciate in the email, but it's hard to go through all of those.
Starting point is 00:30:29 Welsh, I feel like this is a perfect question for you. you're someone who ranks prospects for dynasty. He goes on to show how Spencer Torkelson and Spencer Shrider have shifted in value so much over the past year just based on the small sample size. So what kind of advice or how would you break it down ranking prospects like this and how often it changes? I mean, I'm not really sure. I got to be honestly, I'm not 100% sure what he's asking. Like, take it as seriously as you want to. I mean, like, yes, it's volatile. You're dealing with, this is like, prospects are like the cryptocurrency
Starting point is 00:31:02 and, you know, Fortune 500 are your veterans. Judge is a Fortune 500 and, you know, Corbyn Carroll is Bitcoin. Like that's what, it is volatile. So yes, it's going to have massive movement. We get them wrong. So you should probably always try to win now. You should take it with a grain of salt.
Starting point is 00:31:20 I go with, here are the players that I think are super volatile at the top end of prospect stuff. I think Churio is volatile right now. I think L.A. Dela Cruz is volatile. I don't think Jordan Walker and Corbett Carroll and Gutter Henderson are volatile. I'm looking for low strikeout rates. I'm looking for multiple years of production if they had any major league stuff like Corbyn Carroll, you know, succeeding him in his short stint in Gunter Henderson.
Starting point is 00:31:43 I'm looking for those things. So like how should you take dynasty ranks? You should take them as far as your level of comfort. If this guy's gone out and made a list of why they don't work because he's got spread, then don't draft them. Like go to win now. I suggest to you when I do my ranks, you should win now in Dynast. I go to win now because one thing I know how to do is draft prospects and I can draft them later and I can rebuild my team at later times.
Starting point is 00:32:07 So, you know, maybe focus on more of a redraft base. And the last thing I'd say, this is something I think I differ from a lot of the dynasty prospect rankers on a dynasty list. By the time you get to around 100, you should pivot. You should pivot. If you're a win now team, pivot to more redraft ranks. If you're a building for the future, pivot to more prospect ranks. Like I wouldn't, I wouldn't be beholden to even my own dynasty ranks past 100 to 150 because I think you have to kind of know the scheme of what you're going.
Starting point is 00:32:38 But yeah, he's totally onto it. That same scheme though of, hey, look at Spencer Torkelson and this track record of, you know, this chart to Spencer Strider. Okay, well, go do that to Bobby Witt. Go do that to Julio Rodriguez. I mean, you can play it on both sides. It's an imperfect science and it makes us all uncomfortable when we see Corbyn Carol in the top 30 when he's unproven.
Starting point is 00:32:58 but that's the name of the game on embedding. And those people that bet on Julio Rodriguez last year, they're winning. They're paying off. Torkelson, not so much. They're upset. Yeah, he's upset. The, I think the thing to keep in mind, though, is one, if you're comparing regular dinosaur or regular prospect rankings, one thing to keep in mind is like, relative to fantasy,
Starting point is 00:33:18 I think regular prospect rankings probably overrate catchers. I don't even overrate is probably not the right word, but just catchers are so inherently volatile that like highly ranked catchers in your real life rankings probably should be downgraded in your fantasy rankings. That's how I didn't like. And specifically corner players who are slated for a corner defensive spot are probably underrated in real life dynasty or real life prospect rankings relative to fantasy rankings. So like someone like Pete Alonzo probably was he ever like?
Starting point is 00:33:57 a top 25 prospect in baseball. I feel like he was like in the 50 range. He got there towards the end. Right after his AFL stint, he was like consistently hitting. He was kind of like a top 20 guy. Yeah. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:34:07 But like, you know, the kind of guy where it's just, this guy has no place to play but first base. Real life prospect rankers tend to undervalue them relative to what they're likely to do in fantasy because there's no contingency plan for Pete Alonzo if he doesn't hit. Whereas,
Starting point is 00:34:24 you know, a gunner Henderson. If he doesn't hit, he could still be a very, very good defensive third baseman. So like that's, that's one thing to keep in mind when you're looking at real prospect rankings is certain archetypes of players tend to be over or undervalued. Yeah. And the last thing I want to add and apologies to make this longer. I was focusing now I realize this. I was focusing a little bit more like the dynasty portion of it than just like the prospect rank side of it. Prospect ranks are imperfect because it's a weird game of future value versus now value. Some people purely value guys on proximity.
Starting point is 00:35:00 Some are talking about the whole thing. There's no really great way to do it. You should focus and try to find people that do it based on fantasy. That is what I do. Because Chris is right. You go to MLB pipeline. That's not a fantasy thing. You're going to see catchers like super high and you're going to see pitch.
Starting point is 00:35:15 I mean, Francisco Alvarez is like one of the number one prospects there. That's not the case in fantasy. You just got to try to hope you can find the people that you trust the best that have as good to track records as possible. but I wish I had a better answer for you that you've gone out and you pick two guys and the imperfect way it goes, that's the game. Prospects are crazy
Starting point is 00:35:33 man. Yeah, and it's not just prospects, right? If you just look year over year in terms of redraft rankings, we're going to get a lot of stuff wrong. That's just the name of the game. I was always told if you can if you are right 60% of the time in fantasy, then you're doing a pretty good job. So just keep that of mind. Let's take a break
Starting point is 00:35:49 and we'll be back right after this. Before we get back into the email questions, just want to remind everyone that we will be live this Sunday, Super Bowl Sunday. Not during the Super Bowl, obviously. Earlier in the day, 2 p.m. Eastern Time will have our third base preview. So if you're around earlier in the day and you want some fantasy baseball talk, we will be here at 2 p.m. Eastern Time. Let's get back into the emails. This one's from Jake. Love the show. I've been a fan for a while. Thank you, Jake. Grade the Trade at 12 team head-to-head points, daily lineups with eight keepers.
Starting point is 00:36:19 All right. There's a lot going on here. I trade away Raphael Devers, Trevor Bauer, Kevin Gawler, and both of my third round picks. I receive Juan Soto, a first round pick, and a 17th round pick. So that's Devers, Bauer, Gossmann, and two thirds. For Soto, first rounder, and 17th rounder. 12th points league. The only thing, here's the thing. I would say I'm at an A with this.
Starting point is 00:36:49 Points changed it, maybe a tiny bit. I was thinking categories when I first was looking at this. getting rid of Gossman is kind of tough. Endeavors is really good there just for Soto. Bauer doesn't mean anything in this trade. I'm very curious what that five really equate to. What does that five overall pick equate to? That's probably super important in this.
Starting point is 00:37:05 That's probably the difference for me between this being like a strong B and like an A minus or something like that. Maybe I'd be a little dramatic about it. So it's an eight-keeper league and like obviously it's not going to be just the 96 best players who are kept. But generally speaking, I think that's probably. So you're probably looking at.
Starting point is 00:37:23 the number five overall pick being equivalent to an eighth round pick like that's the kind of player you're going to get in redraft is is what i would guess and so it's just to like to play to like good players go back you know what i'm saying like does that that would be my guess is like i mean let me pull up adp and like so we can do like an actual in in a points league I think the two third round picks probably don't have nearly as much value. But if you're saying like Juan Soto and Tristan McKenzie for Raphael Devers and Kevin Gosman.
Starting point is 00:38:04 Yeah, that's a that's a minus to me. I think so. Yeah. And especially in a points because Devers is good in a Roto in a points league. But Juan Soto at his best is much better. But even if the first round pick, you're getting is like an eighth round pick. That means the third round picks that you gave up
Starting point is 00:38:20 are like 10th round picks. Yeah. So you're still giving up two solid players. I don't know, unless I'm not reading this correctly, this seems like a lot. I think it's fair. So I don't know. The thing to keep in mind is like what we're talking about with the others, like if there are the, you know, the Garret-Coles of the world, they have to go back
Starting point is 00:38:38 or people can only get guys for three years. And then if now the top, you know, eight players are really good. And then the quality drops up. That's why I'm saying this is literally the difference between a solid B and an A minus to me because if it is, I actually consider McKenzie kind of like an upper tierist player you could get, but what if it's like, um, Zach Allen, you know, someone couldn't keep him. I don't know why they wouldn't, but just for argument's sake. And those third round players are more equivalent to, you know,
Starting point is 00:39:03 Patrick Sandoval's and stuff like that. We're in a different pool. So I think there's a lot of variation here. You won the trade, I think. You got the best player in the trade. Just Gossman is a lot better in this format that it would be like even categories or something. Towers, did you have a grade? I think it's probably a B. I was going to say, I think it's pretty close. I'll go C plus, but I think I'm being a little bit too harsh on it. This one's from Miles.
Starting point is 00:39:25 Hey, Oliver, Dave, and Chris. I've been trying to figure this one out, and I can't figure it out. It's completely random. If I'm thinking of the right email, I think it was like tattoo ink judges or something like that. Okay, that's what I thought like Oliver Peck was one who came to mind. don't really know what that person does, but like, I know he, okay, he's a judge on Inkmaster. Inkmasters. I said tattooing. Of the three of us, this is the only podcast pairing or grouping that we're all three of us have tattoos. So that's, that's topical. I was just about to ask. I wasn't
Starting point is 00:40:00 sure about your guys's a tattooness. I got, I got, I got some. I got, you can't really see them. What's our count? Well, can we do a count real quick? I got five. I have, I have two. Okay, I've got, uh, who how many do I have? I have one, two, I have three. I'm due, for another one. It's been, it's been like eight months. I've gone like every six months since I got my first one. Let's all get a locket. Let's get a third of a locket together. We'll all get one. A third of a baseball. A third of a baseball. I was going to say, well, let's get like an infinity sign together or something. Oh, yes. Maybe some baseball seams. Yeah, we'll put it as an infinity sign. Yeah, we'll put it like right behind our ear or something like that.
Starting point is 00:40:37 Anywho, we're not making fun of anyone who has those tattoos. So if you're listening, I I apologize. With second base being such a weak position this year, I found myself drafting Nico Horner late in the drafts as a decent upside polite. He should gain second base eligibility within the first five to 10 games and it's projected to bat leadoff
Starting point is 00:40:55 for a much improved Cubs team. Fangraphs has him projected for 276, 331, 397 slash, with 10 home runs and 18 steals. He should have decent runs and I think he could easily surpass his stolen base projections. Do you think this is a decent strategy to combat second base position scarcity? Towers, I'll throw this one to you because I know you are the resident Nico Horner fan.
Starting point is 00:41:21 Yeah, I'm a Nico Horner guy. I like him quite a bit. I think, yeah, I agree the 18 steals probably feels a little low. I don't think it's an upside play, though. I think he's pretty maxed out in terms of his hitting. So like, I'd be surprised if he hit significantly more than the 10 home runs he had last season, even with. an expected rise in playing time and played appearances. But like, I do think there's a decent chance that he's a
Starting point is 00:41:47 Tommy Edmund-esque performer, except I think he could be a better source of batting average. It's a more volatile profile because he's the kind of guy that I could see taking a little bit of a step back and losing playing time. But if he sustains most of the gains he made last season as a contact hitter, I think you're going to get a good batting average. I think you're going to get a decent amount of runs
Starting point is 00:42:10 at the top of the Cubs lineup, and I think he's going to steal 20 plus bases. So I think he's a pretty valuable player. And he's one of these guys, 92nd percentile sprint speed, where given the new rules, if he really wants to go crazy, I mean, we probably could see 25, 30,
Starting point is 00:42:24 or maybe even more than 30 steals for Nico Horner this upcoming season. Miles also said, I've been able to grab Miguel Vargas late in drafts to pair with Nico as an additional upside play. I think that makes total sense. Like Chris was just saying,
Starting point is 00:42:37 Horner is kind of like that floor, and then you want to take an upside play with Miguel Vargas, who will likely gain second base eligibility as well. I like it. This one's from Evan. I'm in a 12-team categories league where the offensive categories are runs, home runs, RBI, OBP, slug, and steals. The pitching categories are strikeouts, quality starts, wins, ERA, whip, and saves plus holds. Salary cap league with $300 budget, we can keep up to four players. For reference, the best unkept players usually go for around $45 to $55. Here are my best option. Altuve for 28,
Starting point is 00:43:12 Bobby Witt for 24, Kevin Gossman for 18, Nate Lowe for eight, Gunner Henderson for five, Hunter Green for six, and Nicolodolo for eight. And again, how many do we need here?
Starting point is 00:43:24 Four, four players. Yeah. What are you guys saying? Uh, and interesting, he said, I'm just going to say this real quick, his lean is Altuvee, Witt, Gossman,
Starting point is 00:43:34 and, uh, low. And I don't know why Gunner's not being put into their, Yeah. Gunner, I would take low out for Gunner. I was actually struggling, yeah, struggling a little bit with the two high guys. I mean, do you take Altuve off there and maybe keep a Hunter Green or Lodolo if you're going for high strikeouts? I'm not sure how much they're going to help you with wins.
Starting point is 00:43:57 The safe bet is probably Altuve, Witt, Gossman, and Gunner Henderson. That's probably the safety of what I'm going to pick here, though I will admit like Hunter Green is kind of calling to me a little bit. Yeah, I think the thing to keep in mind is. is this is a $300 budget, so that's $40 more than your typical salary cap budget. And the $40 will likely lead to, that $40, my guess would be it likely leads to higher prices at the high end, more than an even distribution. That's generally, I think every marginal dollar added in a salary cap budget is more likely to go to the elite players than it is to the middle range or low end. I think you probably see a decent amount of inflation here. And so in that context, like, I have Gosman as a $16 player.
Starting point is 00:44:47 I have Al Tuve as a $25 player. But I think given that, these are probably decent values for them. I think Gosman more so than even Henderson is probably the fringy one at the price that you're getting him at. But I would probably stick with him over green. If I wasn't like winning, I would be tempted to dump Gosman. for Lodolo, I'll just put out there. I'm a very big Lidolo fan. I think long term, his ability to maybe even outperform 100 grand.
Starting point is 00:45:18 I think Hunter Green and short spurts maybe this year are going to be a little bit higher fantasy-wise, but I think Lidolo long term with the command, the movement he puts on pitches. I think that's a guy that's going to succeed. So I'd be tempted, but there's also not a big price gap. There's like a $10 gap between those two. If it was like a dollar Lidolo and 18 Gousman, it might be a little bit better, but probably the best players in here and Gunner over low. All right, more emails coming here. We've got this one from Pete. I am intrigued by the idea of a dynasty league, but I've never tried it. I have done some research. And what I have seen is that leagues seem to fall into two categories. First up, Uber serious leagues with contract terms, rookie drafts, etc. And then leagues that are really just keeper leagues. My home CBS league is a keeper league, but we can only keep two, creating another league that just has more keepers and doesn't really seem like a dynasty league.
Starting point is 00:46:09 That seems like, yeah, maybe it doesn't make sense. My questions are, assuming you play in one or more dynasty leagues, what format do you like best? And then I think my challenge is going to be finding enough people to form a league. Other sites allow you to set up a league and then make it public to allow others to join. I have not seen this on CBS, but maybe I miss it. I don't think you can make a free Dynasty League on CBS and then invite people. But, yeah, obviously there are ways to set it up.
Starting point is 00:46:36 The thing to keep in mind, the most important thing, arguably for a dynasty league is you need long-term commitment because the whole concept of dynasty revolves around everyone operating in good faith that they are going to be in this league for the next five years, let's say. If you have someone join a dynasty league with no intention of actually staying in it, they play one year, they burn the future and they go win a championship and then quit the league, that kind of screws everything up. So like you need to be, you need to know that you have a committed group. And that's why, like, I think true dynasty leagues have a very high barrier for entry.
Starting point is 00:47:12 Because you lose a lot of the things that make fantasy fun for a more casual player, namely the yearly draft experience, which I think is the most fun part of the year. And so, you know, I think like a hybrid dynasty league makes a lot of sense if you're worried about getting, you know, enough people involved. So that would be like, you have a salary. let's say. So my football league, we're transitioning to a dynasty format, but we're trying to make sure that there's still a decent amount of turnover every year to keep people interested, to keep people engaged, to have the draft mean something, and to have it so that you're not just stuck in
Starting point is 00:47:53 12th place for four years in a row. Nobody wants that. That's going to make it really hard for anyone to keep their interest. And so we have a $120 budget. Your salary goes up $5 every year. You can keep as many players as you want as long as you're under that salary by the draft and you have enough to fill out the rest of your roster. So some players will keep four guys. Some will keep their whole roster. It just kind of depends on what yours looks like. And I think that's striking that balance is probably the best way to do it. Yeah, I'll just throw in a couple things like we've had what he was saying in the second question, Frank, I think was like keeping only two doesn't feel like a dynasty. So I think that's what he was alluding to. But there's like a hybrid version. I've done a hybrid version
Starting point is 00:48:37 in a home league before, where it was 12 teams, we would keep 10. We would have a five league minor league system. And then every year we would just add to the minor league system. So you'd keep 10. So that's kind of like this hybrid between dynasty. Other things we would do as well is like give two years of free keeper to those minor leagues when they come up so you don't just lose them. And then you could just keep however many you want.
Starting point is 00:48:58 But there's a million different ways you can do it. 12 team is probably your way. I think minor leagues are pretty critical here. You don't have to make it as complicated. it as possible. A great way to do them is kind of like what Towers was saying, like you do an auction, you could have money, you got to keep this much. But at the same time, you also just don't have to. You could just draft. You can keep forever. Or you could say five year caps on the players and you could do minor leagues across the board. And CBS can, obviously, it's one of the best platforms to do it.
Starting point is 00:49:25 So there's just no perfect way to do it. But I would say like if you're dipping your toes into it, maybe start with a hybrid, you know, maybe start with like 10 to 12 keepers and a 12 man and have a small minor league draft that separate system that where the players can come up. Maybe you could start from there if you're not comfortable doing the like hardcore serious. Like, you know, I'm just telling Frank, I'm doing not no draft on, on fan graphs right now. And it's like contract. There's like salary cap contracts and it's an auction and we're in a slow auction after a three hour start.
Starting point is 00:49:55 It's like crazy stuff. Maybe that's not for you. So just make it as fun as possible so you don't want to dip out and no one else wants to dip out. All right. We've got about five questions left. So let's kind of run through these. rapid fire style. This one's from Matt. I'm interested in your thoughts in a Keeper League,
Starting point is 00:50:10 10 team head said categories with no limits on how long you can keep someone. My 10th and final keeper spot is coming down to Eloy Jimenez or O'Neill Cruz, two players who are both in my breakouts column this year. It's a close one. Eli, I'll make it quick. I'm sorry, not Eloy. O'Neill. O'Neill is the one I'm going to take here. It's quick enough. I'm going to go with the upside.
Starting point is 00:50:33 Eloy is fun. Lots of injury problems. where he's going to play long-term. If this is about keepers, it is easily O'Neill Cruz for me. Yeah, I think Eloy probably a safer bet for 2023, but the upside is clearly on O'Neill-Cruz's side. This one's from Ryan. I can keep either Jeremy Pena or Von Grissom. The cost is the same.
Starting point is 00:50:53 $6 for either. Which way would you go? It's a 13-team roto that counts hits, runs, total bases, steals, and RBI. I think Pena is very boring fantasy player, but in this specific format where it's just counting stats, the guy who's a gold glove caliber defender at his position who's already locked into an everyday job doesn't have to compete for it,
Starting point is 00:51:16 doesn't really have much chance of losing it. I think he's the clear option here, even if I think like Grissom, the upside is a lot higher for me. I agree. I mean, I like the stolen base upside with Grissom, but I still think there's questions long term about the hit.
Starting point is 00:51:33 Obviously, Payne kind of came down a little bit. the playoffs was a big boost. Total bases involved. There's like another extra advantage for him as kind of a home run guy. So I think he covers four year categories really well. Don't worry about the stolen bases as much. I do think it's closer than maybe it feels, but I would go with Jeremy Pena as well.
Starting point is 00:51:48 Yeah, I think the hope is that you want Grissom to kind of turn into what Jeremy Pena did just last year, right? 253, 22 homers, 11 steals. Maybe there's a little bit more upside for Grissom long term, but Pena just did it. So I think I would just stick with him to both on really good teams with the Astros and the Braves. This one's from Nicholas.
Starting point is 00:52:08 I appreciate your good advice on draft strategy and follow it in most leagues with good results, but I am in a couple of long-standing points leagues where most owners remain pitching happy. Typically, at least a dozen starting pitchers are gone by the end of round two. Which do you think is the better way to react to this? Follow the herd early to scoop up at least a couple
Starting point is 00:52:29 of top starting pitchers or lock in stud hitters in scarce positions early in the hope that there's enough pitching depth to assemble a decent staff in middle to late rounds. Towers, I feel like this question is right up your alley, and that's why I put it on here. Yeah, I'm a contrarian by nature, so I'm going to want to zig where everybody else is zagging. I just, the way I always put it is, if everybody, if nine of the teams are drafting one way in your league, you have to draft that version of that team better than nine other people. Whereas if only three people are going to go hit or heavy, you have much less
Starting point is 00:53:04 competition for the types of players you want at every point in the draft. So I would go with the opposite of what most of your leadmates are going to do. And if you're going contrarian, I think it makes it easier to make trades further down the line too, because if you have a loaded lineup of hitters and someone winds up with, hey, a bunch of good pitchers, and it turns out, all right, that's a pretty good match. You know, you can maybe make a trade further down the road. So that's something that I like for this as well. This one's from Tyler.
Starting point is 00:53:34 Can keep two of these players in a points league. Hitter strikeouts are not worth negative points. Michael Harris, Corbyn Carroll, O'Neill Cruz, Miguel Vargas, Shea Langalears, and Drew Rasmussen. Corbyn Carroll for sure. I want to say Michael Harris, but O'Neill Cruz is really interesting in not being affected by this.
Starting point is 00:53:58 But O'Neill Cruz kind of digs down in points. This is a struggle, man. I think I might lean O'Neill Cruz for the power and the not negative for the strikeouts, but Michael Harris is going to collect a lot of hits. And I like, I would say him in a head to head or any type of categories format here. It's really, really close. Do you, Towers, are you with me on Cruz's number two? Do you think it's Harris?
Starting point is 00:54:24 I think that trio is really close. I probably go Harris and Carroll, though. Okay. It's safer. It's probably a little bit safer. Just the power numbers are going to. to be exponential with Cruz if he pans out over, over Michael Harris. And three are incredibly fun.
Starting point is 00:54:39 I mean, there's no doubt about that. So I think regardless, you're going to have fun with whoever you keep, but it is very close. I think Aline Harris and Carol as well, but it's a good problem to have. This one's from Matthew, Billy, Happy and Sunny. Billy Happy and Sunny. Oh, Happy Gilmore? Yeah, these are, you know, the only three movies I've ever seen, obviously. In my 12 team head.
Starting point is 00:55:02 I don't know, what's sunny? Is that? That was the trainer, I think the golf trainer Who got, but the alligator, isn't it? I think he was the name of an Adam Sandler character Yeah, isn't that Big Daddy? Yeah, Big Daddy. Oh, these are just, okay, Adam Sandler character.
Starting point is 00:55:16 Okay, yeah, yeah, yeah, I gotcha, got you. Yep. In my 12 team head to head points league, we keep four players for only two off seasons with a round penalty each season. Help me decide my last two keepers. Joe Ryan in the 15th, Aaron Ashby in the 19th, Wamp.
Starting point is 00:55:31 Michael Kopeck in the 11th, and Patrick Sandoval in the 16th. I think it's got to be Ryan and Sandoval. I'm Ryan and I still might be Ashby in this, just if like he gets through it this year and then you got a 19th rounder, but it's only for two years. Ugh, God, yeah. It's definitely Joe Ryan and it's not Michael Kopeck.
Starting point is 00:55:53 Yeah, I mean, I guess I lean a little bit Ashby here, but I get, Sandoval is probably makes a little bit more sense. There's probably still more upside for Aspy than there is for Sandoval. Sandoval gets a lot of strikeouts, but the whip, the walks are a complete disaster. I agree with Joe Ryan. I might take Aspie too, but
Starting point is 00:56:12 that one's close. You want to listen to me in Welsh? You take Aspie. You want to listen to Towers. You can take Patrick Sandoval. We're going to wrap there. Mailbag is in the books for the Chrissies. Welsh and Towers.
Starting point is 00:56:22 I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again on Sunday. Bye-bye.

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