Fantasy Baseball Today - Mailbag! Austin Riley's Dynasty Value, Inflation in Salary Cap Drafts & More (3/5 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 5, 2022

Should you sell-high on Austin Riley in dynasty (2:20)? ... Is Max Kepler a sleeper (6:05)? ... We've got some keeper questions (17:50). ... What weekly innings minimum should you put on a H2H categories league (19:40)? ... How do you account for inflation in keeper salary cap leagues (21:25)? ... Who should you keep in an AL-only league (31:30)? ... Which outfielders do we like in the mid-late rounds (34:20)? ... We read some of your emails (37:48) and wrap up with Fantasy Justice (43:45). 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. It's mailbag time. Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Saturday, March 5th. I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Chris Towers.

We have a bunch of your Apple podcast questions, emails, and some fantasy justice later on. How's it going, Chris? Oh, here's the mail. It never fails. It makes me. Frank, is that one age appropriate for you? Are you aware of that one? Is that blues clues?

That is blues clues. Yes. Very good. Very good. Yes. Did you, I got very emotional at Steve from Blue's Clues return. I don't know if you saw that viral video that went out, but really got me. Really got me.

It's an important part of my childhood. I did see it. I did see. It was cool. No chance I was. as emotional about it as you were, Chris. That goes without saying. I'm an emotional guy.

I get emotional at pretty much everything. I had a phase. I had a phase. I think I just go like in and out of those time periods of my life, but I'm sure it'll be returning sometime soon. Reminder, lots of emails coming in right now, so we apologize if we can't get to all of them, but I will point out that it is much more likely

for us to get to your email if it's a short one. So try and keep it as succinct as possible. We do appreciate the details. So tell us how big your league is, you know, what the keeper parameters are, whatever it might be, whatever details we need. But try and keep it as short as possible, that will definitely help us not only. Also, if you send us free stuff, bribery will all work. I won't say no. Chris likes beer.

I like beer. Make it happen. I like lots of things. That's true. Kansas and baseball at CBSI.com, by the way. Yeah, that is the email. I probably should have pointed that out. But yeah, try and keep them.

Try and keep them short and we'll get them here on the podcast and I'll try to answer as many of my downtime as I possibly can. Let's get to some questions we didn't get to on last week's mailbag, Chris, and we'll start with this one from Gary. Dear Lucky Dusty and Ned. Oh, okay. I didn't know that one, but it's three amigos. I haven't seen that movie in a long time. I haven't seen it. Frank has never seen it. Ever. I am in a 12 team head said categories nine by nine dynasty league. Daily transactions, the additional categories are hits, total bases, B. I guess that's walks, walks, and strikeouts. And then on the pitching side, quality starts, holds, whip, and K per 9.

Start each position, right field, center field, left field, with additional infield, outfield, and utility spot. Two pitchers, three relief pitchers, five starting pitchers, minimum eight starts per week, 35 active players and eight specs. Wow. I came in second place last year and have both Devers and Riley on my rock. And my position players are fairly stacked led by Acuna, Trout, Freeman, Devers, Bogarts, Riley, and Judge. My pitching is the weaker side on my roster for Dynasty.

He's got DeGrom, Kevin Gosman, Luis Castillo, McCullors, Glass Now, and Severino. Doesn't sound that bad to me. Should I look at shopping Riley for a high-end pitcher as I already have Raphael Devers? Well, I think Scott would give you a different answer. But Frank and I assume are on the same page here that Riley is a good, sell high candidate in dynasty. That doesn't mean he's not going to be good moving forward, but I do think there's a decent chance that this is the highest his dynasty, his dynasty value is going to be. And so I have no problem trying to shop him. As for what kind of pitcher you're

looking for, that's a harder question to answer. But I'm going to try to pull up Scott White's dynasty rankings. Chris, I've got the perfect answer. I'm looking at ADP right now. They're similar ages. They both had some prospect pedigree. They're both on the right. Riley for Sandy Alcantara. That's pretty good, yeah. I'm looking at Scott's dynasty rankings right now where he assigns like a point value based on age, current value, future value.

And he's got, yeah, Austin Riley and Sandy Alcantara for very similar values. He's got Julio Reyes in that same range. He's got Lucas Gialito. So I think that's the range you're looking at, that kind of, higher end SP2 range. Alcounter might be an SP1 for Frank or some people,

but I think he's like 14 for me. All right, yeah. I think that makes a lot of sense. You've already got Raphael Devers. And look, I know that we've said some not-so-kind things about Austin Riley. I still think he's a really good player. And I think he's going to be productive for fantasy.

But, you know, this might be the time to sell high in Dynasty. Yeah, I just, there's a difference between what he did last season and what I think he's likely to do moving forward, which is like 260 to 270 with good power rather than, you know, what, he hit 304 last season, something like that. So yeah, it's, it's mostly just that I think this is the right time to sell if you're going to, but it doesn't mean you have to. Correct. And just a little, I guess not a

sneak peek. We're recording this on Thursday, but my bus 2.0 is going to drop on Friday. It's already dropped by the time you're listening to this. Austin Riley is on the list, unfortunately. I did I did remove him from 2.0. He was in 1.0. He was not in 2.0. But yeah, I think there's, I think he's more a case of overvalued than bust.

I think there's a pretty good chance that like, I think there's a chance of Nolan Aronado just busts. I think there's a chance of Nolan Aronado just takes a huge step backwards and just is like a Matt Chapman type season where he just really struggles across the board. it's harder to see that with Riley. Let's get into our next question here.

This one's from Justin. Listening to the outfield preview had me looking at two players and comparing their stats. I know statcast data isn't everything, but I can't help but look at these two players and understand why their difference is so vast. But as you can see,

they are both outfield, both are 29 years old as of this year, and for some reason, one is drafted almost 300 picks later, and he included a screenshot of both statcast pages, and they were very similar. These two players are Max Kepler and Mooky Betts.

Now I understand that Moogie is a stud. I'm here for it, but I don't understand why Max is so lowly rated. Is it the splits? Platoon shifts. I don't think his, I think his 2019 season was the real Max, although his splits were a bit even, and I'm not sure he can reliably hit lefties. Either way, a guy who produces Moogie Betts level production

for 400 to 450 at bats versus Mooky 600, isn't anything to scoff at. I just want Max to get some love. He's a really solid sleeper in my opinion. What do you think, Chris? Well, I think one of the difference is there are a lot of similarities in their Stackast profiles. One thing that I would say is the charts that show up on Stackcast, those like percentile

rankings that have the little bar and the little red dot or the blue dot and all that. Like, it's, I think that's very visually appealing. And I think there are some uses, like in terms of like catching a glimpse. or a snapshot of what a player did in the previous year. But one, it's just a snapshot of where that player was last season. And two, all of those categories are choices that the people who created baseball savant.com made about what to show. And if you actually go through and look at it, there's a lot of double counting going on in that. You know, average exit velocity and hard hit rate and barrel rate.

There's like a lot of overlap. And those are basically all variations on how well does this guy hit the ball. And X slug and X Wobah and all those. Like those all, you know, you might have, like, there's nine of those categories or seven, I guess, if you're just looking at quality of contact. And that's not the entirety of hitting. You know, like Mookie Betts, at least most seasons is going to be faster than Max Kepler. he wasn't last season.

Maybe that's a sign of imminent decline for Mookie Betts, but I think it was probably just that he had a lingering hip issue, which probably isn't, I'm hoping isn't going to be an issue this season. You also have Mookie Betts with just a much better track record, one of maximizing what he creates as a batter in terms of, like, outperforming his ex-WO,

but he's done that by about 10 points for his career in the Staccast era. Max Kepler is about even. He's been right around where you would expect him based on his expected Wobah. So I think you can look at Mookie Betts as someone who has more optimized his approach and his swing and gets the most out of his skill set, whereas I think Kepler probably doesn't. Kepler's an extreme fly ball hitter who hits a lot of pop-ups, and that's always going to lead to poor batting averages in a way that I don't think will be true for Mookie bets.

unless you're assuming Mookie Betts just took a big step back last season. And it's entirely possible that that is the case. But I think I need more than 490 plate appearances for a player with Mookie Betz caliber. I actually believe I'm higher on the consensus on Mookie Betz, higher than the consensus on Mookie Betz. He is a top seven player for me. I've got him right behind Bo Bichette. I think those two are actually very similar players.

I might just think, like, if it weren't for the concerns about the hip and how much that would affect his stolen bases, I think you should probably just assume Muki Betts is going to be better because he has been for his whole career. I mean, we're talking about one of the best players in fantasy over the last decade. Yeah, I think everything comes down to that hip. Obviously, Chris, it severely hampered him last year. And even with that, he averaged like 3.5 fantasy points per game. He was still, you know, pretty damn good when he played, just not what we're used to. So if he's healthy, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if he gets back to, you know, close to 30 home runs, 15 to 20 steals,

and that would make Mokey Betts a really valuable player. I think it's possible that Moogie bets being 5 foot 9, 180 pounds or whatever he's, you know, he's listed at 180, whatever he actually is. Like, you can make a case that that type of player may not age as well. I think Dustin Padrella being the obvious example of a player who just really hit a wall. But then you have Jose Altuva as a smaller player who has, I mean, a much smaller player even, who has aged relatively well. So I don't think there's that much reason to be concerned about Mookie Betts. I will point out, though, to Justin's point, Max Kepler, the expected numbers much better than the actual numbers last year. So he hit 211 with a 413 slug.

His XBA was 255. His ex-slug was 452. I will point out he had his career year at the height of the bouncy ball in 2019 when he hit 36 home runs. He posted an 855 OPS. So I don't think he comes anywhere close to that. But I do think that there's room for the batting average to bounce back. He's got really good plate discipline.

He walks quite a bit. The efficiency on the base paths the past two years don't trust that one bit. That's yeah. But can he hit... He stole 10 bases on 10 attempts last season. You're better off expecting five this season. I actually did a little bit of research on that earlier today.

If he hits 2.40 with 25 homerers and 6 to 8 steals, that's probably a player worth starting in a 5 outfielder league. So I think there's some credence to this sleeper in Max. You can say Max Kepler is under undervalued. I think that's fair. Yeah, the ADP for Max Kepler is 297.3, according to fantasy pros. This next one's from Zach in Kansas City. It's a strategy question. I play in a 10-te-to-head category league. that uses OBP instead of batting average.

We get three keepers and allow future draft pick trading. Last year I went for it and traded away some draft capital, plus had two picks missing from a trade in 2020. So he... Yeah, he traded away his fourth, sixth, eighth, 11, 12, 13th. That's what it sounds like here. Ouch, time to pay the piper. I did some mocks and studied rankings

and was wondering if it's crazy, if this is a crazy idea, to go all in on the five pitching categories and then chase home runs for all hitting positions. Full punts on OBP and steals and maybe in runs. The keepers would be Shane Bieber in round seven, Lucas Chelito in round 24, and Freddie Peralta in round 26.

To do this, I take Kohler Burns and an elite bat. At the 9th, 12th overall turn, and third round and fifth round, no fourth. I try to grab the top, top belief pitchers. So he would have four stud starting pitchers, two stud relief pitchers, but literally only one bat going into the ninth round, but have trade bait and a strong grip on five categories.

Or do I? Yeah, I mean, no. You wouldn't have a strong grip on five starting pitcher category or pitching categories because pitchers are really, really hard to predict, and they bust at a really high rate relative to pit hitters. And that's less true for the range. of pitchers we're talking about, like the high-end guys, they tend to hit at a higher rate. But I think, I mean, I guess in the situation that this person is dealing with, this person is

Zach, I guess you're kind of in a no-good outcome kind of situation because of how much you've given up. So you kind of have to go for some kind of outlier approach. And I think there's value in leaning into what you already have with Bieber, Gialito, and Peralta, getting more elite pitchers. The one thing I would say is it might make sense to try to be really active early on in the season and trade some of those pitchers just because they're not all going to hit. And if you can turn, like Shane Bieber especially, I think makes a lot of sense to try to trade early in the season, like even before the season, if you could, and get a second or

third tier starting pitcher, maybe like a Max Fried plus something. I think that's what I would. try to do. Now, I will point out, Chris, I've been with you in that I'm worried about Shane Bieber and his shoulder. We heard from the source himself. Someone tweeted at Shane Bieber on Thursday and they asked, how's the shoulder doing? Are you going to be 100% whenever the season starts? And Bieber said, I've been 100% for a while now, been working in silence. That's just how I like to do it. Always appreciate the concern though and can't wait to get things going. I mean, the question isn't, is Shane Bieber healthy in April? And this is something that

I've said for a lot of these injury injury risk players or, you know, is it's not a question of whether Shane Bieber's healthy right now or healthy in April. It's a question of whether he can get through six months of baseball or as is looking increasingly likely five months of baseball, unfortunately. And so I think given the fact that he missed time with a shoulder injury last season and had reduced velocity, I just think the risk of him coming back and making it through a full season is pretty high. And so. I would, you know, just be looking to sell, not just because I'm worried about Shane Bieber, but just because he's probably your best trade asset. And you're in a spot where you need

multiple players. You know, you don't need one star. You probably need to turn one star into three players, you know, three above average starters if you can. Yep. And I think you actually pull that off in a 10-team league. There's always people trying to trade away depth to acquire the best player. So you can, if you could turn Shane Bieber into two or three hitters that are going to fill out your lineup, then I'm for it. Look, if Corbyn Burns is the best player available at pick nine, then take him and lean into that and then take a hitter with your next pick.

It sounds like 12th overall and then try and acquire some hitters after that, but look, if I'm punting anything, as I've said many times in head-ted categories, it steals. Just try and stay away from steals, try and load up on as many high OBP, big home run bats as you possibly can. Joey Gallo, Mike Trout, you know, just-

Yeah, the nice thing about OBP I wrote about this in my Tau Wars review of my team on CBSSports.com is you, OBP leagues give you more flexibility in the type of hitters you can go after. There are, I think, more, it's harder to get steals in an OBP league because the guys who steal bases tend to be bad OBP guys. Generally speaking, I think that's mostly true, except for like Miles Straw, I think would be the one big outlier there. But a lot of the all or nothing power hitters are still going to be. at least passable in OBP, if not downright good. Like, Joey Gallo figures to be pretty good in an OBP league,

even if, you know, he's hitting 210. So he's someone who goes from being outside of the top 100 to probably deserving to be a top 500 or top 50 pick in a OBP league. Yeah, I saw that in your draft. Joey Gallo went in the sixth round, and that's an OVP league. And you can argue, I mean, based on the bat axe in Fangraphs, auction calculator, he's a top 25 hitter in that format. Yeah, no, his value changes, uh, changes drastically.

Let's move on to some Apple podcast review questions. This one's from Clemson Drew. Keeper question, six by six head-to-head category league, OBP instead of batting average, and offensive strikeouts as the sixth category. Quality starts instead of wins and holds as the extra category on the pitching side. I can keep five guys. So far, I'm locked into Otani for $14. $11. Mullen, $16,

Yudan Alvarez, $11, Jonathan India for seven. I need one of these. Tyler O'Neill for six, Joey Votto for nine, Sean Mania for six. It's a five outfielder league. Reminder O'BP instead of batting average.

I think it's got to be Tyler O'Neill, right? Yeah, he doesn't walk all that much. He doesn't walk all that much. He's not going to be a great OBP guy. I think he could be, you know, a pretty low OBP guy, if anything. but he's got speed. He's going to hurt you in offensive strikeouts.

And with Shohey Otani, that's also going to be an issue. But I just think the one, the fact that he's $3 cheaper than Tyler. And I don't think Sean Mania is in this discussion. I know you like him, but. I agree with that. Even with liking Mania, I don't. O'Neill and Votto for $6 and $9 respectively, I think are much better values. And so I just think it comes down to, yes, Votto is going to be a very high OBP guy.

And that'll help a lot. but it's not like you're exactly hurting in OBP with Yordaun Alvarez and Jonathan India there. And I think getting stolen bases is probably a little more valuable. But I could see it go either way. Yeah, it's head to categories. And like I just said, I would like to punt steals. But you've already got Mullins on this team. India will chip in, you know, 8 to 12, something like that.

So with the keepers you already have, I don't think it makes sense for you to punt steals. So I'd probably lean into it a little bit more. and I would go with Tyler O'Neill myself. This next was from Ha ha ha ha ha. Thank you. I'm a commissioner of a 12-team Roto League that has expanded to a 14-team

head-to-head categories league in order to keep more people engaged even if they have a slow start. This would be my first time being the commission of a head-to-head categories league and wanted to know what the standard quote minimums should be. My league's default setting is 10 innings pitched

per week minimum. Seems kind of low. Should I increase it? and if so, what would make the most sense? It's nine active pitchers per team. I feel like the default I've seen around the industry, Chris,

is 25 innings per week, minimum. But that's for like that six pitcher, or I guess the Yahoo format is eight, right? It's eight, yeah. Two relief, two starters, and then just four pitcher spots. So I would say 27, three per spot. Because that way, you know,

if you're starting, five starting pitchers who make one start per week, you should get 20 or 25 out of those. So that should be enough to get you there. And so it does allow for different strategies. You don't have to go all starting pitching heavily heavy. There's still room for, you know, relievers to make an impact. But I think 27's a good spot. Yeah.

I think talk to your league mates. If there are people who want to use the Marmall strategy, which is basically just using relief pitchers and not using any starting pitchers, then, you know, you can find a way to work that in, maybe make it 10 or 15 innings pitch minimum. 20 maybe. Yeah, if people want to go that route. But yeah, look, if you want starting pitchers to continue to have value in your league, you probably want to make it at least 25 and maybe even closer to 30.

You know, Chris recommended 27. This next one is from Rob C. How do you approach inflation in Keeper League auction slash salary cap drafts? For example, Bryce Harper is available. and I have a $35 value for him, but inflation has him at $41. If I get him at $38, is that a value or an overpay?

I always kind of have trouble with this, Chris, because let's say, for example, we've got the Scott White Dynasty League salary cap draft coming up this weekend. And a lot of people are... Oh man, that's on Sunday, isn't it? It's on Sunday. So get ready.

I always sinks up on me. I got to put something on my calendar. Yeah. Noon? I think it is at noon. All right, all right. But I will confirm that for you. But that's a 24-team Dynasty League where there are some players who are kept for fantastic

values. And then as a result, I think last year you got Mike Trout for $81, which, you know, some people listening, there's probably like, what are you talking about? $81 for Mike Trout, that sounds insane. But there's not a lot of elite hitters that, you know, hit the player pool that are available. And so many players are being kept on discounts that there's a lot of. lot of money available to throw around. So it's really tough to say. And I think what you have to do is kind of judge it based on what other players in that same tier are going for. Like that's how you'll

figure out what Bryce Harper should be worth and whether or not you got him for a deal. So how much is Kyle Tucker? How much is Mike Trout going for in your auction? And then I think relative to those guys, you probably want Bryce Harper in a similar price range. What do you think, Chris? Yeah, I think that's probably fair. It all depends on the depth of the league and how many people are being kept and all that stuff. Because if you've got a situation where Fernando Tatis is kept for $1 or $5, then you're going to have significant inflation on the rest of the elite players. And I think the way to approach it, I think the best way to approach it in your keeper slash dynasty slash whatever salary cap auctions is, I think, I'm a way. way to approach it in your keeper slash dynasty slash whatever salary cap auctions is, I think you

probably want to go stars and scrubs in the auction. And that's not necessarily the way I handle all of those, but those high price players are going to get inflated, but also the next tier often gets inflated a lot more. And you'll end up with decent values falling through. And so I think it's worth paying the inflation of the higher end. But yeah, if you get Harper for 38 and you think he's a $35 value without inflation, that's probably pretty good. Yeah, that sounds right to me. And in my experience, like, we always put these salary cap values on players and we top out at like, I don't know about you, Frank, but I think my highest in auction in Roto is 43 or 45 in mixed. Let's see. 41. And head to head, it's like 44 or something like that. Right. That's never, the top players

always go for more. You know, sometimes you'll see the top players in a roto auction go for $60. That's not out of the question. And so you have to keep all of that in mind. And you can't really stick with specific values. Because if you're always just looking for, am I getting this guy at a good value, you're inevitably going to end up with, you know, potentially a bad team. You probably need to pay up at some point to get some of those stars. Yeah, that's why it's so hard to talk about, you know, auction, salary cap values because every league is different. It's relative, right? Like, we can suggest what a player should be worth, but you have to realize that more often than not, as Chris mentioned, first round picks are going to go for more than what, you know,

their auction value says that they're worth. And you're not going to profit on those players. If you're bidding on first or second round players, the chances are you're not going to profit. Where you want to profit is in the mid to late round players where you can find five or $10 worth of excess value on those guys. So just realize you can bid on these guys, but you're probably not going to,

it's probably not going to pay off at the end of the day, if that makes sense. I've got to say, though, very excited for this dynasty draft. for like the first time ever, I'm actually in a good position heading into the draft. I have been in this league for like six years now.

I took over someone's team and I have no patience for a rebuild. And so I have been that guy that's just like, let's just try to make the playoffs. And let's, so I've been like the guy who gets last year I drafted Mike Trout and Freddie Freeman for like $150 total.

And I actually did make the playoffs last year. But now I've actually got like almost, a full pitching staff going into the draft. So I'm excited for this one. Which, I got like the fifth most amount of money too. And you know who has the most money, Chris?

This guy. I have no good players. I have no good players. My team stinks. So who knows, maybe I'll take the approach that you had last year and I'll go all in on some of these expensive ones. I mean, if you have,

you have the patience for it. You don't have, uh, you know, you seem to be able to control your impulses. So you, like last year, you actually did rebuild. You were willing to say, look, my team stinks. I'm going to rebuild.

Go all in on Mike Trout or whoever the top free agents are. I guess they'd be free agents, right? That's what we would call them. Yeah, available players, I guess. And trade those guys. You don't need, go get $60. Freddie Freeman. The group's not super great.

It's like Trout and Freeman. Oh, what's the worst part is to have all this money and the pitchers available are brutal. It's like you Darvish, Clayton Kirshall. I think Kyle Hendricks is the third best projected starter available. Yeah, yeah. I've got Kirshall, Darvish, Will Smith, the pitcher, Jordan Romano, Zach Grinke. Oh, yikes.

Yeah, it's probably not the best year to have all the money in the Scout White Dynasty League. No, no. We're going to take a quick break. When we return, we are going to get back into Apple Podcast questions here. on fantasy baseball today. All right, Chris, let's try to get through these a little bit quicker, see how many questions we could actually get to.

This one's from hashtag bringing back the Sonics. The glove, Gary Payton, let's do it. Keeper question, each player moves up one round each year can only keep for three years. 10 team head-to-ed categories with runs, home runs, RBI, net steals, OPS, slugging. On the pitching side, quality starts,

saves plus holds, K-per-9, innings pitched with a minimum of 35, ERA and WIP. Choose three. Luis Robert in the fifth round for one more year. Corey Seeger in the sixth round for one more year. The following players each have two years left. Trout and the first, Grandal on the 11th, Severino 23rd, Verlander 24th,

Sinregard 21st, Clevenger 24th, Montas 17th, Winker 24th, India 24th, Votto 24th. All right, lots of names there, Chris. choose three. I think Robert is the obvious answer in the fifth round. Seeger and the six, I think he's fine there, but I don't think you probably want to keep him at that price. I don't know if it's enough of value.

So I would go with Robert and the fifth, Verlander in the 24th. And I think either Votto or India in the 24th or 23rd, however it would work out. if you have two guys in the same round. I would prefer Votto. I have him ranked higher, but,

you know, obviously I know a lot of people have India higher. So. Yeah, it's a 10-team league, so you won as much impact as you could possibly get. Trout's probably worth

a first-round pick in an OPS league. Yeah. You have other strong values there. I agree with Robert. I agree with Verlander. I kind of like, even though I don't like Winker much this year, 24th round is pretty damn good for him too.

Yeah, I think you're deciding between the Reds there. I'll go with India. I'll go Robert Verlander and India. But some really good options. This one's from Caliper? I think that's what that is. I'm in a 5x5 category league and can keep two players based on previous years draft round slash waiver ads. Who do you recommend? Zach Beeler in the seventh, Robbie Ray in the 8th, Castellanos in the 8th, Will Smith, Dodgers for the 14th, Tyler Malley in the 16th,

Jake Croninworth in the 20th. I think Will Smith is the obvious answer. And then I would go with Wheeler in the 7th over Ray in the 8th. Correct. I am with you. Wheeler and Will Smith. Let's do that. This one's from Knapp 51, AL only, 15 team head-to-head categories. I never understand how people can play head-to-head leagues with odd amount of teams. Does that make sense? Anyway.

Maybe you do all play or maybe you just have a buy. One person's on buy every 15 weeks. I don't know. Keep as many as nine players. Categories. Total bases, OBP, slug, and then the normal hitting categories. Pitching, you got strikeouts, quality starts, ERA, whip, K-per-9, K-2-Walks, saves plus holds, and home runs allowed.

Definite keepers, Vlad, Jorge Polanco, Jared Kellnick, Garrett Cole, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert. Need three. Nelson Cruz, Nathan Avaldi, Sean Mania, Frankie Montas, Tyler Glassnow, and if Bobby Witt starts his season with the Royals, I'll have to use a keeper on him to pull him up from my minor league squad. Which I would agree with doing.

So I still choose your top three, Chris, outside of Witt. So the one thought I had with this format, with the if you think about it, there's only two categories where starting pitchers have real

like surplus value. If you think about it, strikeouts and quality starts. Because the other counting stats going to hurt starting pitchers, home runs allowed, and everything else is a rate stat. ERA whip,

strikeouts per nine, walks to strike out or strikeout to walk, saves plus, holds, well, Safe Plus holds is a counting stat that helps relievers. So I almost just, I almost wish you had fewer pitchers to keep. Because like, I don't know if I would keep Logan Gilbert. Even, I guess it's an AL only and it's 15 teams. So like, that makes sense. But I kind of would just want a bunch of relievers and then go hitter heavy. I think that's the, the ideal way to play

in this league in App 51 if you're looking for some larger advice. But to answer the actual question, I think you're keeping Montas. I guess you would keep glass now with an eye on the future. Agreed. And then Manaya over Evaldi and if you have to get rid of one of them, Manaya to keep wit.

I agree. You know, I'm thinking about taking Nelson Cruz over Manaya as much as I like him, just so that you balance out how many hitter keepers you have versus pitcher keepers that you have. So I think I would

go Montas class now in Cruz. That also depends on how you're going to handle if Nelson Cruz signs with an NL team, which is entirely likely with the DH. So, if you have to make that decision before we know and you still get his stats, then Nelson Cruz is a good

answer. All right, here's the last Apple podcast review that we have a username Brett and Lance. Chris, he left us three stars. Can you believe that? He left us three stars. And he wrote, quote, why the hate for all, Why the hate for all outfielders? My God, do you like any outfielders?

Just listen to the Outfield Preview Part 2. Sheesh! Maybe Schwaber had some love, but outside of that, you guys dissect and destroy too much. Well, we can only tell you what the numbers say. That's part of the job. But I'll make you a deal. Chris and I will each give you some outfielders that we like

that are going after J.D. Martinez, because I remember that's where we started our Outfield Preview Part 2. in turn, you boost that Apple podcast rating. At least to four stars. Give us five stars. Help us out, man. Come on.

Like, we're, we're turning out a lot of content. Help us out. All right. So for me, Chris, I'll let you look at ADP and you can figure out who you like.

But I feel like we spoke about a few of these guys that we liked. I don't know. Maybe we were meaner towards some other players. Anyway, for me, Cody Bellinger talked about him quite a bit. He was the player I loved on our Valentine's Day podcast.

So I am in on the Bellinger bounceback. I like the price tag. Lordeis Guerriel. It's part of breakouts 2.0. Part of a great lineup, obviously, just needs to stay healthy. Jared Kelnick, I understand. You can get Joe Adele later on your drafts. I feel like that's what Chris will say,

but I still like the upside potential for Jared Kelnik. I think he can go 25, 15, if everything breaks right, with like a 250, 260 batting average, so I do like him. Eddie Rosario, he's just undervalued every single year. Andrew Ben, Denti was really good last year, and he's just going super late. I don't get it.

I think he goes 20 and 10. The Royals lineup is improving. he hits for a solid batting average, 270 plus. I like Ben Intendi. And I'll give you three late round outfielders as well. Hazu Sanchez, Lane Thomas, and Connor Joe, all names that I've talked about quite a bit. Chris, who you got?

John Carlos Stan at 97th overall. Christian Yelich at 100.4. These are NFC ADPs. I like Kyle Schwerber at 124. I like Jared Kellanick, I wish it was a little cheaper, but 134 is fine for him. at 174.9. I think Ian Hap at 194.5 and, or 193.3.

and Jorge Salarer at 194.5, Marcelo Zuna at 203.2 is one of the best values, I think, in the entire draft. A.J. Pollack at 217.3, that dude has raked the past two seasons. Playing time is going to be an issue, but, I mean, I don't see much difference between AJ Pollack and Jesse Winker. If we're concerned about Jesse Winkers, Platoon splits. I mean, AJ Pollock has been crushing the ball. He's going to steal a handful of bases.

I think AJ Pollock, he's in my sleepers column. Joe Adela, 233.3. Andrew Vaughn at 238.4. Mark Kanna at 267.5. Let's go a little deeper. Let's go look at my sleepers list.

Jaron Duran. He had a really good AAA season. It was a small sample size, but he did the things we were hoping he would do, and there is significantly less buzz about him than there was at this time last year when we were hoping he would do what he did at AAA. So I like Jared Duran, not exactly clear if he's going to have an everyday job with the Red Sox, but it's one of those things where life finds a way. So there you go. All right, let's wrap up with some emails here,

Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. That's the letter I if you want to email in. This one's from Nick Murray, Keeper Question. I'm part of a 10-team category league with average, home runs, runs, RBI, steals, strikeouts, walks, strikeouts wins ERA whip and saves plus holds as the categories. Every year we are allowed to keep up to four players with a limit of 27 keeper points, which I guess would be similar to dollars,

but we'll go with points. First rounders are worth 15 points, second rounders, 14, etc. If a player is kept the year prior, their point value increases by three in the next year. I'm planning on keeping Corbin Burns for 12 points, Tatis for four, Walker Bueller for seven. With my four remaining points, my two best keeper options are Gialito for four points, Austin Riley for one point. What do you think, Chris?

I think you should probably just go with Gialito and then not worry about pitching. I think take Burns, Bueller, and Gialito and just don't get another pitcher until what would be like the 15th round range. I think you just focus on your

offense. You've got Fernando Tatis, who I think is the best player in fantasy to provide the base of your offense and just go from there. Just hit hitting as hard as you can for a long time in the actual draft. Man, this is close. Obviously, we've talked a lot about Austin Riley.

We're not necessarily in on him at the cost, but you only get to keep him for one point here. And his ADP, he goes four and a half picks after Lucas Geelito, and you're getting this three-point discount. But the thing is, I don't think you get, like, there's no, I don't think there's any value in, like, spending fewer points. If I understand this correctly, you just have that 25 points, but they don't actually, like, you don't lose, like, a first rounder

if you keep a first rounder, from what I understand of this. So the way this works out is it's just Gioito or Riley. I don't think the points matter there. Unless you want to keep the player the next year. For next season. Because they increase by three. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I hear you.

I think I would go with Riley and go get two hitters and two pitchers to start. That's fair. You lock up third base and you don't really have to worry about it after that. But I think it comes down to I have Gialito four spots ahead of Riley or five spots I had a rally in my overall rankings. They're the same auction value, but I think that's what it comes down to. All right, this next one's from Blake.

Dear Reggie, Raleigh and Ricky. Those would be Oakland Athletics, Reggie Jackson, Raleigh Fingers, and Riki Henderson. Correct. Are they A's who eventually played for the Yankees? Did Raleigh Fingers ever play for the Yankees? I think so. Nope, he did not.

So it's just Oakland Athletics. No, he did not. Oakland A's, Padres, Brewers for Raleigh Fingers. Here's the question. Need your help with my keepers, please. 15 team auction, 5x5-Roto, keeps six with a $3 increase in salary per year, already keeping two hitters.

Shohei Otani, $8, Kyle Tucker at 17, and two starting pitchers. Walker Bueller at $17, Lucas Yolito at $12. Choose two of the following. Valdez for five, McClain for seven, Here comes the money. Here we go.

Money talk. Here comes the money. Logan Gilbert for seven. Patrick Sandoval for seven. Riley Green. Outfield prospect for the Tigers for seven. And DJ LaMahue for $7. Need two.

Hmm. This is making me realize I need to move Patrick Sandoval up in my overall rankings because I hadn't done that since I updated his pitcher ranking. He is now a $5 player, which is. more than Gilbert, better than Gilbert. So I think for me, it would be Sandoval and McClanahan. Shane O'Mack for sure.

Seven bucks. Framber, yeah, it could be Framber over Sandoval since it's the same price. Yeah, I like Framber too. Yeah, that's probably the way to go. Yeah, I think I would go. That's how I have it ranked, so I guess I'll go with that.

Yeah, let's go Valdez and Shane McClanahan. This one is from Travis Wayne, Kenny. Head to Head Points League Keeper question. Pick one. Votto, Gallo, or Franul Reyes for three years, or Corey Seeger for one year? I have Votto and Seeger ranked very close overall. In a head-to-head points league. Will Votto be around in three years?

That's the thing is that the extra years don't really matter, so just go with Seeger. Or you can pick two. Yeah. Pick two of these. Joe Musgrove, Kevin Gosman, or Jansen, who I assume is Kenner. all for three years.

Musgrove and Gosman for three years. See, the thing is I don't think the three years matter with pitchers. Projecting pitchers, yeah, projecting pitchers is far out. If Musker and Gosman are outside the top 250 and 80p next year, I don't think anybody would be shocked.

Right. But I think picking those two might be better than just picking Seeger. Yeah, it is a points league, so you want quality pitching. Yeah. I think I would go Musgrove and Gosman.

and just hope that I can get another impact back. But I don't think the three years on Musgrove and Gosman matters. I think you're just looking at those as 2020 and maybe 2023. All right, Chris, let's wrap up with a fantasy justice question. Again, these are, they're not player related. If you got something going on in your league specifically that you want us to figure out some kind of shady stuff that's going on, send us a question and put fantasy justice in the subject line, but let's get to it.

This one's from Rich Wood, writing you today about a fantasy league that I'm in that is currently embroiled in a trade philosophy crisis. We currently use the veto system in a 12-team league. The commissioner who has a- I see your problem right there. Right there. The commissioner who has a team as well does not vote and the parties involved in a trade do not vote, leaving nine members that do vote. If four vote to veto the trade, it triggers a commissioner review. In this event, the commissioner, to his credit,

a lot of work. First, he discusses the trade with both parties, getting their point of view. After these conversations, he asked them if they would like to alter the deal or attempt to push it through as is. If they would like to push it through, he then breaks down the trade and how it benefits each side, at least in their view, and emails the breakdown to the rest of the league. After the email, he then conducts another vote from the nine members who voted previously. If five people vote to let the trade go through, it passes. If not, it is vetoed. for good. The broad question is what is your philosophy regarding fantasy trades and a voting system? I'm more interested in what role you think a commissioner should have in vetoing trades.

Should he or she be the police of the league, making sure all things are fairly balanced, or should they only act when something is totally lopsided or collusion is suspected? I think you've got the analogy wrong there. I think the police would be where they only step in when something is either totally lopsided or collusion is suspected or, you know, the justice system, however you want to, you know, in the American justice system, there's law and order or something. I don't know what that actually is. I don't think the commissioner, because where the commissioner's like, okay, now four people didn't want the trade, so I have to walk you through it and say, well, this is how it is. Like, that's a nanny. Like, that's, the

commissioner's not being the police in that instance. The commissioner's being your mommy. And you're all grownups. You play in what sounds like a very, I'm going to assume that this is a very serious league, or at least the league that you guys take seriously. In which case, the commissioner should not be holding people's hands through trades. And the commissioner should not be taking a vote of the league to see if they think a trade is fair. If the owners, the managers of the teams themselves believe that the trade is fair. That is all that matters. As long as they're acting in good faith, if they're not, if they're breaking rules or if they're colluding or doing something else, that's the only time the commissioner should step up. I think there are exceptions if you're

talking about people who are new to fantasy or if it's like there's not a serious league and people are just kind of doing whatever they want. If you have a new person in the league or somebody who's never played fantasy, all of those things. I think that's when, the commissioner can in good faith say, hey, wait a minute, this person maybe didn't know what they were doing. But this sounds like a league that the commissioner puts a lot of work in. It sounds like you guys probably take it pretty seriously. And in that instance, I don't think the commissioner should be vetoing trades. I don't think we should be putting trades up to a vote. People should be trusted to make their own mistakes. And if someone screws up and makes a lopsided trade,

but they meant to, and they did it in good faith, that's all that matter. shout out to this commissioner because Chris in leagues where I'm the commissioner I have I don't even want to set up the draft after that I'm done I just sucks it sucks it absolutely sucks it's a thankless job too it's like and then if something happens that people don't like they come to you and they complain man shout out to this commissioner because you it sounds like you've already done more work and even one season than I've ever done in like all my seasons combined as a commissioner. I've got one league, my football league,

with all my friends from my friends from the college newspaper with a handful of CBS employees who have gone on to work there. And it's a pain. It sucks to be the commissioner of this league. It's always, we've got all kinds of rules that nobody really understands, and I always get questions about it. And we've got one guy,

Igor Mello, who works for CBS sports. I put him on blast every time we talk about it. Because he's always that guy who is trying to find the loophole he's the Daryl Morey of our league or the Billy Bean. He's always trying to find that loophole in the CBA that's like, well, you didn't specifically say I couldn't do this

and then we have to have this whole discussion and everybody yells. So that league actually voted last year. Without my, me, I didn't campaign for this. I didn't ask for this. They voted to make the commissioner's entry fee 20% lower because of the extra work that you have to put in.

Everybody else pays like, what would it be? 14 team league, so everybody pays like 1.5% extra in entry fees. Gotcha. So that the commissioner pays $20 less. Which, again, I didn't ask for it. I don't mind it. Honestly, commissioners should get paid.

There should be an extra fee for commissioners. Yeah, it's tough. Overall here, Chris, I agree with your breakdown of the situation. I don't, I don't think veto should be a thing in any type of fantasy sport, baseball, football, basketball. voting like, oh, because what you get is the commissioner is supposed to be a disinterested party, or at least act as a disinterested party. And so they're only supposed to make moves if it's in the best interest of the league.

Somebody made their team too good is not an issue that the commissioner should be looking at. And the people who are voting are going to be self-interested. And they're going to say, well, that trade makes a good team better. So I'm going to veto it. And that's not how veto should work. Those are the worst. for collusion. Those are the worst people, Chris.

Yeah. It should be collusion or like incompetence. Yes. You should have got to that person first. You should have made a trade offer to that person first. You can't be mad at someone else if they are getting the better end of a deal and they are bettering their team. That's what they're supposed to be doing in fantasy baseball.

That is the worst, the worst possible way or worst possible reason to veto a trade ever. So I don't agree with vetoes. I don't think that they should exist. But in this situation, if there are fantasy managers that are being taken advantage of, then yes, you should probably, hey,

talk to that person, maybe try and figure out like, all right, maybe fantasy isn't for you or just trying to make them realize, like, what's going on there. And like, hey,

here's what you got wrong. Here's, like that kind of stuff I'm fine with. I'm fine with the commissioner. Like, it should all be under the assumption of good faith. And the only time that commissioner should step in and veto is when there's bad faith involved.

When someone's obviously taking advantage of someone who doesn't know what they're doing or if there's a collusion or something like that. Otherwise, let people run their dang teams. One thousand percent. Fantasy justice has been served. Chris, we haven't heard it yet this year. At the end of Fantasy Justice. Joey, Gellow. Oh, no, different thing. You don't remember what we used to do last year? At the end of first? There you go. We finally got one. We're going to wrap there. For Chris, I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching this mailbag edition of fantasy baseball today. We'll be back again on Monday. Bye-bye.

No. Oh.