Fantasy Baseball Today - Mailbag! Kevin Newman Deep Dive (04/16 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: April 16, 2020

We're answering all your questions but first we get things started with a deep dive on Kevin Newman (6:23). What's the base case scenario for Newman? Where does he rank among other late-round middle infielders? ... We've got the latest news regarding Alex Verdugo plus it sounds like Mike Trout is not on board with the current season proposal (16:58). Is Verdugo's back injury chronic? ... We're diving into your latest questions and the first one is regarding Yonny Chirinos and Ryan Yarbrough (25:00). Which Rays pitcher would you rather own in 2020? ... Who were some players you thought would be "locks" and weren't (31:55)? Has that changed how you evaluate prospects? ... How do closer roles change if there is a shortened season (37:40)? Do you draft more setup pitchers as a result? ... How do you value Shohei Ohtani in daily lineup league (45:25)? ... Email us at [e-mail]. 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @CBSFantasyBB, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Download our printable Draft Kit from CBSSports.com/draftkit! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. One, one pitch, basketball pulled and passed. Alvarez and twilight. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris.

Welcome everybody to Fantasy Baseball today, Thursday, April 16th, and I've got to get things started with this. My father always told me, quote, unquote, he tells things like it is. I try my best to follow that philosophy in life. That includes being honest with other people, being honest with myself, holding others accountable. And if we're going to criticize Scott White for pronouncing Justin Verlander, Verlander, and if we're going to, you know, call out Chris whenever he says... Deadpool hit it.

Or mispronunciate? Then I have to hold myself accountable as well. And it's been brought to my attention that apparently I do not pronounce the T's in certain names. Most notably, John Carlos Stanton and Charlie Morton. Now, I'm going out of my way now to pronounce the T's in those names. How do you say them? I'll say them right now how I normally say them. John Carlos Stanton, Charlie Morton.

I mean, so like, it's a, it's a, it's a, a weird, you know, it's weird because like, I guess technically you're not saying John Carlos Stanton. You're saying Stanton. Yes. But there's like a T-ish sound in there. That's what I thought. There's like a

little like puff of breath that comes out after the end that stands in for the T. Yeah, I don't know who how to, I don't know who says them otherwise. I think the way you pronounced more

Morton. See, I do it too, Morton. Morton. Like, who does that? Charlie Morton. It sounds like you're like Siri or something. Charlie Morton. pronouncing the name of some avenue that your friend lives on when you're driving there.

Somebody I will not draft the season is John Carlos Stanton. Yeah, I guess there's not really a T there. I do like Charlie Morton. I'll try my best to pronounce the T's moving forward. Those seem like, I don't know who was to point of these out, but... It's been multiple people. It's not just one. A little nitpicky.

If it was just one person, I would probably just let it go and be like, all right, it doesn't matter. But I've, at least a handful of people have pointed it out to me. And I've been called many things in my life. So it's perfectly fine. I can live with it. Someone yesterday told me that I sound like a valley girl because I don't pronounce the tease. I'm just like... I don't know.

Wouldn't a Valley girl be like, oh, Charlie Morton, I love him? That's not how I think I'm saying it. Like, yeah, my thing is like, one, look, I've got lots of foibles that people find annoying. You know, I've got a vocal fry. You know, I say my us and my likes. But with this, you know, Stanton, Morton, nobody's confused about who you. you're referring to.

You know, we all know it's John Carlos Stanton that you're talking about. So I say, say it however you like, Stanton, Morton. How are you supposed to say? That's, that's, that's, that's really what it comes down to for me.

I would like to hear everybody's samples of them saying these names and how perfectly, like they think they're Vin Scully or something or Bob Shepard. I don't know. Those guys are on another level when it comes to pronunciations. Tweet us.

Tweet us at Roto underscore Frank, at CBS, Scott White, at C-Towers, CBS. Send us a video of you saying, John Carlos Stanton, Charlie Morton, and we will compare it to my audio. I just look, I'm going to hold myself accountable. People are pointing it out. I just continue to send it in. I'm perfectly fine with it. If there are things I need to pronounce differently, then I will certainly address those things. Today on the show, we're going to deep dive Kevin Newman.

This is another Apple podcast review that came in, and they want us to talk a little bit about Kevin Newman. So we'll dive into that. We've got some quick news and notes that I want to hit on. Today's show, the crux of the show, we're going to answer a ton of your questions. This is our mailbag. We got a whole lot of mailbag to get into.

And if there's time at the end, I'm not going to promise this, because I don't want to give out any more broken promises here on the show, Scott. we will have a rankings debate over Javier Baez in Roto, because I will not be drafting him in a points league. I acknowledged that. But Scott recently wrote about our discrepancies between our rankings, my Roto ranks and his Roto ranks, and we are way off on a ton of players.

But Javier Baez in particular, so I do want to get into that. Chris Bryant's the one I really want to hear you talk about, because that's the only one that I was just disturbed by. how low you have Chris Bryant ranked. Yeah, I do have him ranked very low, admittedly. But we can do that, that's fine. We'll continue to do some of these rankings debates, and I think we'll probably just have a whole show dedicated to those rankings,

rankings debates sooner rather than later. But let's start things off with Kevin Newman, and I've got to start with this. First and foremost, I'll never forgive Kevin Newman for making three errors in one inning last season on April 8th. I remember watching this game very vividly as a Jameson Tion owner, and it basically derailed Tion's entire start. So ever since then, I've kind of held a grudge against Kevin Newman,

so I'll just throw that out there first and foremost. Outside of that, his rookie season was actually a pretty solid one. He hit 308, 12 home runs, 61 run scored, 64 RBI, and 16 steals. He has both shortstop and second base eligibility, finished with 2.9 fantasy points per game last season. That was the 16th best second baseman. That was the 19th best shortstop in head-to-head points leagues. And he finished as the 13th best second baseman in Roto,

a little bit lower at shortstop in terms of Roto last season. His best trait is his ability to make contact. 11.7% strikeout rate was fifth lowest in baseball last season. And he's consistently been at 12% or lower throughout his minor. league career. So I think if there's one thing you can count on Kevin Newman to do, it's to make contact. How good that contact is is a different story, because if you're looking for batted ball data, Kevin Newman ain't it. 27% hard contact rate. His 84.7 mile per hour average exit velocity was in the fifth percentile, fifth five, fifth percentile in baseball last season. His 291

XBA expected batting average, however, was in the 90th percentile. Why is that? He does hit a decent amount of line drives, and he's pretty fast, so when he hits ground balls, there's a chance that he can beat those out. Scott, paint the best case scenario for Kevin Newman in 2020, the best you can. The best case scenario, I could see him competing for like a batting title. I think batting average is his most bankable stat. You mentioned percentile. He was he was in for XBA last year. He ranked right behind Charlie Blackman and Freddie Freeman in that category, two of the most consistent sources for batting average.

So I do think Kevin Newman's swing is optimized for batting average. Beyond that, though, he hit 12 home runs last year. Maybe he could hit like 15 in a best case scenario. Maybe he could be a 20 to 25 steel guy in a best case scenario. He was 16 for 24 in steals last year. but like that's that's best case scenario that's not at all what i'm expecting from him i do think the upside here is limited what makes newman interesting in those deeper rotisserie leagues is it's rare to find such bankable batting average from a guy who can also give you steals he does that

he can give you that very late and that's that's handy if those are categories you need help in but there isn't a lot of upside here and it's not somebody not somebody you're going to be hinging your entire draft strategy on in all likelihood it's it's a classic like pre-yanky stadium DJ LeMayhew profile you're hoping like the upside is probably 25 steals really good batting average maybe a dozen homers problem is he doesn't play at cores uh And the problem is the lineup around him is going to not help him very much. And so you look at it in like 12 home runs, 16 steals, 308 average, played pretty much every day last year. It actually, it seems like it should be a pretty useful player, but then it's 61 runs 64 RBI. And the Pirates lineup got worse. That, I think, is the biggest thing holding him back. I think in the right lineup, in the right context, I could see Kevin Newman being, you know, a really solid fantasy.

starter across the board, but you know, if his upside of his ceiling is like 80 runs and 65 RBI, it gets a little tougher. That's a fair point. Yeah. I mean, the RBI and run limits you make the DJ

Lemayhew comparison at first I didn't like it because, I mean, even before last year, DJ LaMayhew for most of his Rockies career was like a mid-round pick. It's not like where we're seeing Newman go. But you're right. I mean, obviously LeMayhew is batting high and very

even if you don't want to say good lineups. Lineups that scored a lot of runs over the course of the season and that probably elevated his status during his time with the Rockies and Newman isn't going to get that kind of help from his supporting cast. I will say like DJ Lemayhew 2015 hit 301, six homers, 23 steel, 6 to 1 RBI, 85 runs score. I want to see where he finished that year among second baseman because what year was at, Chris?

2015, because that seems like a pretty reasonable expectation for what Kevin Newman could do. Maybe a little more pop, although honestly, it feels a little lucky that he hit 12 home runs based on his minor league career, even with the juice ball. So I would expect more in the single digits, but I wouldn't be surprised if Lemayhew was a top five second baseman that year. He wasn't. He wasn't. He was top 10. He was, well, I'm looking.

at points league specifically. LeMayhe was eight. He was fifth in Roto. Okay. It's worth pointing out, 2015 was before the first of the two home run spikes we saw. The first home run spike came midway through 2016

and the second one was, of course, last year. But that would mean that the standard for every hitter was lower back in 2015. So just worth pointing out. For me, Kevin Newman stands out as really a middle infielder in a deeper mixed roto league.

Something like 14 teams are deeper, anything deeper than that. I think he can be a serviceable middle infielder. I don't know that he has the upside to be a middle infielder I would be comfortable with in a 12-team league, but I think anything deeper than that, you're kind of getting into that territory. Kevin Newman right now, his ADP is at 208, according to fantasy pros. So, I mean, he's a late-round flyer, and, you know, someone in deeper mixed leagues. I've seen a few, you know, like 15-team leagues over at the NFBC, high-stakes leagues, where he winds up as people's middle infielder.

And I think that's fine, like 10 home runs, maybe 15 to 20 steals, solid batting average. I don't know that there's much upside outside of that. Chris, can you rank Newman, Luis Arise, and Colton Wong in Roto? I think I would go Newman-Arys. And Wong. Scott, how about you? I think that's the order I'd put them in, too,

but I've had some second thoughts about Colton Wong lately. Maybe I'm not giving him enough credit, uh, considering he was like, it was pretty good last year. A 340 hitter in the second half with some changes to his batted ball profile that justified as well as a 340 batting average can ever be justified, which is,

of course, you know, that's, that's always going to look like a fluke statistically. but he also stole 24 bases last year. So if there was any legitimacy to that change in approach as a hitter, and he keeps running like that, I mean, he's probably going to end up being the most valuable of the three.

Yeah, 342 in the second half for Colton Wong. Yeah, for Wong, his seasonal production has just been so volatile. Like last year he hit 285, the year before that, 249. In 2017, 285. so the batting average just fluctuates all over the place. 2016, he hit 240. So it's, you know, one year he's below 250. The next year he's up over 280.

So there's a lot of volatility in Colton Wong's bat, but look, if he can maintain some of those gains and continue to steal bases, you know, maybe he has more upside. I don't love the Cardinals lineup, but with that being said, it's still better than the Pittsburgh Pirates. But I would probably go Newman Wong a rise. I think I have my rankings up. up if I can, you know, talk about holding myself accountable.

I think it's going to come down to playing time, really. You know, I think there are concerns about how much Raias is going to play and concerns about how much Wong's going to play. It is worth pointing out, Colton Wong was one of the, like, six hitters in baseball who hit the ball more weak than Kevin Newman last season. So the batter ball profile for him looked pretty weak, and that's been a multi-year trend. he's been among the worst in baseball the last couple of seasons. Yeah, it looks like he just gave up on power in the second half.

Like his fly ball rate just collapsed. And, you know, it may have been an acknowledgement finally that home runs just aren't his game after having some early home run success in his career. I don't know. Maybe not. He's a left-handed hitter and they have Tommy Edmund, who they're going to try and play all over. so he may not get the playing time to rank as high as those other two.

I think all else being equal, like if they get the same amount of plate appearances, there's a decent chance Arias is the best fantasy option among them just because that lineup is so good and so deep. And it wouldn't be out of the question that he hits near the top of it. So that should, I think the... He should get on base a lot, Arayas.

Yeah, and that's, but that's harder to judge than the skill sets. Yeah. But Chris, Luis Araya's is more of a Tony Gwynn hitter than Joey Vado, so I'll just point that out. Well, I mean, Luis Tarias made more contact, struck out less than Mike Trout last year, had a better batting average, so he's better than Mike Trout. He's better than Mike Trout. Better hitter than Mike Trout. I know, nobody can disagree with this.

There's some of our Kevin Newman, some Colton Wong, some Luis. arise some deeper middle infield options for you, potentially in some roto leagues there, and head to head points too. But some news and notes here. Just wanted to touch on this real quick. Mark Reynolds and Steve Pierce have retired. Never forget. Mark Reynolds is 2009.

That was my first year playing fantasy baseball. He hit 260 with 44 home runs and 24 steals. He never had more than seven steals after that season. Two hundred and five strikeouts probably. Shout out to Mark Reynolds. You're so, so young. I was already working at CBS when that season happened. Wow.

It's come full circle, Scott. I was reading your player updates back then. I depend. According to Ron Reneggie, this is something Chris might not want to hear, but Alex Verdugo's back has not progressed as quickly as they had hoped. He's just 23 years old, and I'm starting to question whether or not this is going to become a chronic issue for Alex Verdugo. I mean, for him to be dealing with this young in his career,

you know, I have criticized Yordon Alvarez and his knees as a 22-year-old designated hitter, then I think we have to do the same thing for Verdugo. We were hoping that this delay in the season is something that would have helped Verdugo. And I think, you know, the rationale there, the thinking is correct, but it just hasn't. It hasn't helped Verdugo.

So is that something that you're overly worried about, Chris? No, and I do want to point out, The report was from Chris Cotillo. Cotillo. I don't know. I think it's Red Sox. Cotillo? He might not be Hispanic.

He's a mass live Red Sox beat writer. And the report was he has not progressed as quickly as the Red Sox had hoped. But that wasn't because the back was an issue. He had actually been able to do some baseball-related activities before the coronavirus. shutdown. He was swinging a bat. I think he was hitting off a T at that point. So it does sound like it's more about the fact that he just hasn't been able to work out, hasn't been able to see pitching, rather than the back still being an issue. Now, that could impact his availability for whenever opening day happens to be because there will likely only be a few weeks of abbreviated

spring training whenever that happens. But it doesn't sound like the injury is the issue at this point. And if he is healthy, you know, it's not like it's a chronic thing. He had a back fracture or a stress fracture, I think, in his back. And so obviously there's no such thing as a good back injury. But the fact that it was like an acute injury, maybe makes it less of an issue. We'll see. I don't, I don't know. I'm not a doctor. But I like Alex Verdugo, I think he can be a batting title contender playing half his games at Fenway. And, uh, Hopefully he gets in the lineup in 2020. I've got some breaking news.

Oh. From Terry Francona. Oh. I've watched every Netflix program there is. I'm out of Netflix. That's from Terry Francona. I'm not sure how literally to take him, because I think back to that story of him eating the 17 great popsicles,

because if one is good for you, 17 is even better. It seems to have an addictive personality. I highly doubt he's watched. Like, do you really think he's watched like John Mullaney and the Sackbunch lunch? Yes. I mean, that's not an obscure one, right? It can seem like it's in Terry Francona's wheelhouse. He's watched every Netflix program there is, Chris.

No, that's, that's, I'm pretty sure there hasn't been enough time to that. What do I know? I don't know. I'm not, I'm not a Netflix executive. Anyway, he says he misses baseball. You scared me, man. I pulled up Twitter right away. I'm like, please don't let it be friend Milraeus.

Please don't let it be friend Milres. I was freaking out. That actually reminded me of the commercial from back in the day. I don't know what it was for, but it was basically the commercial was this guy's computer said that he had visited every website imaginable

and that he can now log off of his computer. I think it was just like his wife trying to get him off the computer. And that's what it reminded me of, yeah, I don't know if you can actually watch everything that's on Netflix. But Terry Francona, going to give it a shot there.

Yesterday, we didn't get another update on a new reported MLB season, but we did hear from Mike Trout, who is the best player in baseball and in all of our Hall of Fame. He doesn't sound like he's on board for the Arizona plan. He had this to say, quote, we want to get back as soon as we can, but obviously it's got to be realistic. It can't be sitting in our hotel rooms,

just going from the field to the hotel room, and not being able to do anything. I think that's pretty crazy. It's worth mentioning that Mike Trout's wife is also pregnant and she's due sometime throughout the summer. So I guess that is another concern. You know, if we start things back up in, just throw it out there, June or July, then is Mike Trout going to have to leave his facility to be with his wife while she gives birth? Then he has to be quarantined for a certain amount of time after that before he returns back to playing.

So there's like so many different moving parts here, but it doesn't seem like a good thing if the best player in baseball. and Mike Trout is not signing off on a proposed deal right now for the MLB season being started. The whole thing's going to rely on being able to test everyone regularly. And if they can't do that, it's hard to see how any of this works. Right. So that's ultimately I think what, you know, I don't know. That would take off on it too, obviously. Yeah.

But I would take quarantine out, right? if they can test them, like he comes back, they test them, oh, you're fine. There's no need to quarantine at that point, presumably. I mean, obviously, I'm not asking you to fake medical knowledge here, Chris, but that's my understanding if how it would work. I mean, yeah, I don't know. They might still want to quarantine just out of an abundance of caution. But, yeah, ultimately, like, there are still a lot of steps we have to get passed before this really becomes

something that people really need to start debating, I guess. And ultimately, like, I'm sure the players association is going to have to bargain with the league and come up with an answer. And I just, I don't know. I will see when it becomes more concrete. If I was a player, I would not be thrilled at the idea of it.

But it's probably easier for one like Mike Trout to balk at it. than one who's getting paid far less. Yeah, but also, like, Mike Trout goes from making $36 million this year to making a few hundred thousand in the event of a canceled season. So, you know, there's, it, look, it's so hard to say anything concrete about this because it just, it's not up to us. It has, it's not, like, our opinions don't really matter if the players sign off on it

and they can, you know, Dr. Anthony Fousey seems to believe it can be done. Now it's kind of up to figuring out the howls and getting sign off. Up next we'll get into our mailbag, but first I want to remind everybody that today is your last chance to enter the contest for a free copy of Out of the Park Baseball. Head on over to our Fantasy Baseball today Facebook group, and there you will see a post of mine asking for your biggest bust in 2020 and a reason why. I'll select three winners and announce them on tomorrow's show. Thanks again to Matt Williams of the Turn 2 podcast and OOTP for making this possible. And yes, I am continuing to play OOTP, the perfect team. My game is simulating right now.

So I'll let you guys know. I'll give you a little update on how the team's going. But it's been quite addicting. Let's get on to the mailbag here. This one comes from Nick. A couple of raised pitchers I haven't heard you mention, if at all. and I'd love to hear some of your thorough takes, Yanni Chorinos and Ryan Yarbrough.

It's for a head-to-head points keeper contract league, custom scoring, where strikeouts are worth two. Quality starts are rewarded among other bonuses. So any deeper thoughts here on Yanni Chorinos and Ryan Yarbrough, who I believe are expected to be in the rotation instead of being the follower, that kind of bulk reliever that they have been in years past? I mean, you're not going to get a lot of quality starts from either of these guys if that's part of your scoring system.

So just keep that in mind. There's just the raise basically, they'll trust three pitchers, Tyler Glass now, Charlie Morton and Blake Snell to go deep into games. And basically beyond that, even if they don't use an opener, you probably shouldn't expect Ryan Yarbrough or Rionni Chorino's to see the third time through the order too often. They'd have to be pitching really well. And if they do that, then that's going to work out even better, and it's not really going to matter. But the most likely outcome is these guys are not super valuable in a league that boosts strikeouts and rewards quality starts.

Scott, I don't know about you, but I've viewed them more as roto targets, if anything, in deeper leagues because they are really strong whip pitchers. Terinos last year, a 105 whip, Ryan Yarbrough, a 1.00 whiff. on the dot. So neither guy gets a ton of strikeouts. They do both have very solid command. They're not great pitchers, but they just kind of get the job done for the Tampa Bay raise. And another thing I'll point out is, I don't know how long the leash is for either one of these guys, because it seems like Tampa Bay does have some depth there with Trevor Richards, who they traded for from last year from the Miami Marlins, and they still have Jalen Beaks on the roster. If they ever wanted to go

back to having an opener, they can use him as a, you know, bulk reliever, a follower if they wanted to do that. So I don't know how long the leash is going to be for either one of these pitchers either. Well, they're, they're so unusual in the way compared to the way we approach every other pitcher because, so Torino's made 26 appearances last year, 18 of them were starts. Of those 18 starts, 10 of them went six innings or more. So they pretty much treated him like a normal starter when he started. But, you know, are they going to treat him like that all year? Probably not.

I know he missed some time with injury last year, too, which didn't help. Obviously, Yarbrough has the relief pitcher eligibility. Chorinos was two relief appearances short of that, so he doesn't. But that tips the scales more for Yarbrough, I think, in the head-to-head points favor, as opposed to Roto. I haven't really been approaching them that differently between the two formats, except maybe elevating Yarbrough. But I get what you're arguing there. I do think both of them, one thing that happens with a team using an opener and then following up with a pitcher who could be a starting pitcher like these two,

is that the pitcher that's following up does have a higher chance of. of recording a win. Sure. And we've seen Yarbrose win total has been surprisingly high given his stature the past two years. And I do think while wins are probably the most valuable

statistic a pitcher can earn in either of the format traditional roto or head to headpoints, it's especially true in head to head points. So Scott, who would you rather have between the two, Yarbrough or Cherinos? I think Chorinos is better. But when you consider the spark factor for Yarbrough in a head-to-head points league, I would take Yarbrough in a head-to-head points league.

Yarbrough's ADP is at 228, while Torinos is at 278. So a 50-pick difference between the two. And there you go. We laid it out a little bit for each one of those guys, Yarbrough and Torinos. This next one comes from Jalen. Hey, Jose, Marco, Bo, and you know. those are Hmm

Blue Jays Blue Jays shortstops Mm-hmm Yel Escobar Boba Chette Marco Scudero Jose Who am I missing

Hmm At first I just thought They were Blue Jays And I assumed Jose Batista But did not play shortstop Yeah no I think they have to be Shortstops

I'm not sure Like Jose obviously Such a common name in baseball Right Yeah I don't know that might take a while to figure out. Got to grade the trade for you guys

that I could use some help with. Give up Nolan Aronado and Caleb Smith, get back, Eugenio Suarez, Luis Castillo, and Adrian Houser, 12 teams 6x, head-to-head categories, with OPS and Ennings pitched being the extra categories.

I would definitely prefer the Suarez-Castio side. This is an example of me preferring the side that doesn't get the best player, which is Aeronado. So I will give this trade a B-minus. Chris, what do you think? Give up Nolan Aronado, Caleb Smith, get back, A. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. Horese-O., Chastio, and Adrian Houserner. I'm looking at their old Blue Jays rosters right now.

Yeah. He's out a mission for the... I'm not going to be... Oh, Jose Reyes. Okay. Okay. Yeah, that works. Yeah, so Blue Jays short stops. And I was reminded that Frank Thomas played for the Blue Jays in 2007, which was a little alarming. I'm with you on this one here, Scott.

I, you know, you do give up the best player in the trade. And this is something we spoke about yesterday in our trade special, our kind of general discussion there on trading, where normally you do want the best player, but there are times where the return is worth giving up the best player. And I think this is one of those where you get Suarez. who can be a, you know, 265, 270 bat, 30, 35 plus home runs. Castillo,

widely considered a top 15 starting pitcher. Whereas Caleb Smith, he's, you know, a back-end starting pitcher, probably even a bench pitcher in most formats. So, yeah, I like the depth that you get back in this trade. I give it, I was thinking B or B minus, so in that range as well. I agree.

This next one's from a baseball starved fan in Nashville. I saw an article on another site about the, players who were thought to be sure MLB locks but weren't. I was wondering which players over the past few years you thought were going to be quote fantasy locks but weren't. Injuries don't count. Also, maybe this leads into the question of how you evaluate prospects for potential fantasy value.

So a little bit of a two-parter and that second one's kind of a loaded question. But any fantasy locks in the past couple of seasons that you thought we're going to be great for fantasy, no doubt about it, maybe had like one year where they were great, and then just kind of fell flat. Anyone come to mind? How far back are we going? Because I know somebody that comes to mind for,

well, Chris and I both, but especially Chris. What's that? Jeremy Hermita. Yeah, yeah, for sure. I mean, that's going back to like 2005. Yeah, it's coming back 15 years. I make me feel old. Before Frank was playing.

In more recent times, I mean, to address the larger question of how do you evaluate prospects for potential fantasy value, it's really hard because I think to someone like J.P. Crawford or even Ahmed Rosario to a certain extent, guys who, you know, seem to have pretty fantasy friendly profiles were top prospects for a while, you know, had, and just haven't quite put it together. And maybe one of the things that I think fantasy players need to keep in mind is that when you're looking at top prospect ratings, short stops might tend to be more valued in a traditional prospect ranking because of defense and because they're likely to fit somewhere on a major league roster. And so that might raise their floor for a traditional prospect. But we don't really care about defense. that much. We care about defense in as much as it helps you get on the field. But the guys who get a boost for their defensive abilities, you should probably be wary of them. Yeah. Sometimes it works out because Francisco Lindor was absolutely defensive first prospect. And I've been reluctant to downgrade any as far as I downgraded Lindor because of Lindor. But that means,

you know, others who have come along like that. include J.P. Crawford, include Orlando Arcea. Yeah. Of course, was a big miss. I think you mentioned another. That was the name that really set out. Orlando Arcea was one where I just kept looking back at his minor league numbers and comparing it to Francisco Lindor.

I'm like, it's coming. It's coming. He's going to have that breakout. They had such similar minor league careers. And I always thought it was going to happen. And he was having a great spring training. Not that I didn't think it was going to really turn into much this year. year. But yeah, that's one that really, really stands out. Orlando Arcea. We're still waiting on Byron Bucksen. Well, honestly, Arcia's brother, Oswaldo Arcia, that's one specifically for fantasy.

I was even more excited about. That was a Twins outfielder, whose numbers were really good in the minors, and he's long gone at this point. I mean, Ahmed Rosario, I want to say he was my number one prospect one year, and certainly he hasn't lived up to that yet. He's only 24. So, So it's still possible, but I'm not counting on it at this point. I'm not counting on him having a huge leap in production. It's the thing is, though, it's really hard to come up with like one fast rule because you want to say, well, like my thought would be production matters more than tools. If you haven't hit in the minors or if you haven't gotten a lot of strikeouts in the minors, chances are you're not going to do that in the majors. But then you look at Byron Buxton, who just dominated the miners statistically.

for instance, hit everywhere he went in the minor. And so there's just no, it's really hard. It's really hard to know who's going to turn into a player and who's just going to be kind of a guy. Like, William Damas was a top prospect. And he's settled in as a major league player, but he's not someone that anyone's really excited about at this point. And so it's, God, if there was a, if there was a specific answer, this would be a lot

easier. Yeah, imagine that. I would just be wary of anybody who speaks to definitely about any prospect, because experience has shown me that's a bad way to go about it. Just keep an open mind. Yeah, and especially for guys that are severely hyped. Yes, they are hyped for a reason, but let's just take a look back at last year, for example, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who had never swung a bat in the major leagues,

was in some leagues before he got hurt. I remember some early drafts where he was being drafted in the third or fourth round. I mean, at that point, you're taking someone who has never done anything, and there are going to be players that come up. I mean, we've seen a ton of these guys come up recently and just take the league by storm. So I see it, but at the same time, you're taking him over proven talent. So just be wary of those things. I'm sure, you know, if Wander Franco either comes up late this year

or is getting closer by the time next year's drafts roll around, in redraft. I mean, that's a name that I could see just being drafted way, way early based on prospect type. And it might be worth it, but it's something you have to be wary of as well. This next one comes from Matt in St. Louis,

and he says, go Cubs. Interesting, from St. Louis. How do closers change with potentially having so many games happening in a short period of time to include double headers, how much more valuable do setup guys become? What guys do you see as more valuable

or sleepers because of this shortened season. I try to, it's so hard to answer shortened season questions right now just because we truly don't know what's going to happen. Like we can kind of address it based on things that we've heard and we have heard that we could potentially see double headers and some seven inning games, but honestly nobody knows for sure.

But if it were to happen, guys, I mean, what would that kind of do to the closer position? There will be more, my bet is there will be more players on a per game basis who gets saves this year than last year. I hope that makes sense. Or prorated to 162 games, whatever you want to say. There will be a wider distribution in saves than we are normally used to. And it will likely just be a one-year trend because there will be deeper rosters, deeper bullpens, likely fewer days off.

and so more of those save opportunities are going to go to guys who are not necessarily the traditional closer. Now, if you're asking for specific names, good relievers on good teams is the best answer I can give. It's hard to be much more specific than that because we can't look at what the workload's going to look like. Like in a game where it gets to the closer, there's a pretty good chance that the top setup men

have also been used there, in which case, if there's a game where the closers are not available later on in that week, there's a decent chance that one of those top set up men won't be available as well. Yeah, it would be really hard to get into specifics because it's not like, look, double headers have happened before. They happen every year, usually because of rain makeups or whatever. Closers get both the saves in a double header. It's a thing that happens. So it's not like you can say, okay, whenever there's a double header, we know there's a chance two

relievers could get a save. It's going to depend on how rested the closer is. And then if there's a save, there may not be another save chance for two days after that, in which case they'll go right back to the closer. So it's going to vary from team to team just based on the way the saves are distributed

over the course of that season. It's going to be something that's, other than to just broadly say there are going to be more relievers who get some saves, it's hard to predict anything else ahead of time rather than it is to look back next year and say, okay, this is why this guy got six saves and he's probably not going to do it again. Chris, I think your mindset makes sense, though, in terms of just looking at good relievers on good teams. Like the Yankees, for example, come to mind where, you know, Zach Britton could be in the

mix for a few more saves if, you know, they're not going to use Chapman in both games of a double header if that were the case or you know if the schedule's just jam packed and they're playing way more games like relievers are going to need a day off here and there too so you know Zach Britton comes to mind uh Blake trinen if you consider him a good reliever you know he's probably going to be the setup man the next man up for the Los Angeles Dodgers so those were a few that came to mind there but I think that your general mindset there does make a lot of sense maybe even the Tampa Bay guys and that brings me to my next question this one's from Mike in your expert opinion that would be we have the expert opinion.

Who would be the better option as a reliever in a 12-team head-to-head league? Doesn't specify head-to-head points or head-to-head categories, just as head-to-head. But Daniel Hudson or Diego Castillo? Uh... I would go with Castillo.

I think he's a better pitcher. I would go with Hudson, but I'm also... I'm also one who's more inclined to believe Nick Anderson will become... the late inning guy for the raise when like i i could see i could see hudson getting a 50% share for for the nationals then like if castillo was part of the committee there would probably be more like a 33% share so originally i like daniel hudson quite a bit when you deep dive's

numbers a little bit more doesn't get a ton of strikeout seems like he got a little bit lucky last year the peripherals the underlying numbers uh we're not great to for Hudson. Yeah, you want to talk about a rankings debate. I have Nick Anderson way lower in my rankings than Scott does. So that's another one that we can get into. But I'm more so of the belief that we will continue to see something closer to what their bullpen has been in recent years, something closer to a committee where

Diego Castillo, Jose Alvarado can be in the mix and kind of get some save opportunities. So I would lean Castillo. I think he's just better than Daniel Hudson. That's just me. but there's definitely a chance shown DeLittle gets hurt just because he has been injury prone and he's been a little bit overused

the past couple of seasons as well. This next one's from Tim. I have a guy in one of my leagues that constantly proposes trades to me in which I would receive three to four waiver-wire level players. This is the email I was talking about. And he would receive for me

a high to mid-level ADP player in return. The first three proposals, I figured it was just someone fishing for fun. But after the seventh one, seventh, I proposed a ridiculous trade back, which he quickly declined. I now get them just about every other day. I wonder if it's a guy with some problems in his life, so I don't want to be rude, but it's really annoying. I'm not sure what to do. Any advice?

Are you afraid to say stupid there? Yeah, I was. I was fishing for stupid. He changed it to fishing for fun. Fishing for stupid. Okay. Um, anyway, uh, yeah, I would, I know I wrote an article on like trading etiquette a couple years ago where I addressed that. And so I'm trying to think of what I said then. I think, I think it would be an instance where I would, he hasn't, he hasn't really talked about things he's told the guy yet, right? Like if you haven't, if you haven't said to him, like, I really don't, like, I really don't. see a match here. You need to actually state that because if you're just responding with

silence, he might think, oh, well, maybe I'm close and keep trying. It sounds like this guy's just trolling you, though. Yeah. Yeah, that's what it sounds like. What would be the upside for him? He's bored? Yeah. What's the other day? Scott, you want to get a reaction out of someone. Come on. Yeah, but is he getting a reaction? If trolls don't get a reaction, don't they move on? He did get a reaction, though. Oh, what was the reaction? Sorry. He proposed a ridiculous trade back, which is a clear sign that it was getting to you.

Yeah, okay. There you go. You can't let them know that you're mad. Yeah. True. And the worst way to let them know that you're mad is to tell them that you're not mad. Okay. Sorry, I missed that part.

I was thinking about fishing for stupid. Kick the guy out of the league. That's what I say. This next one's from Mike Taylor, dear Stephen, Michael, and Eric. Those are very generic names. Yeah, that's going to be tough. Stephen, Michael, and Eric.

We'll look it up. I drafted Otani 52nd overall in a 10-team daily Roto League. Later, I was offered Alvarez, I assume Yurdon, and Adelberto Mondesi for Josh Hader and Max Kepler. So, yes, I now have two DHSs. Should I just keep both until Alvarez earns outfield eligibility, 10 stars,

or try to trade one of these guys? I have pretty good- Getting D.H.L. Elfithel eligibility, man, man. He is not. I have pretty good pitching already with Bueller, Flaherty, Beber, Clevenger, Gallen, and Paxston. I sort of punted batting average, so I'm leading in home runs and RBI by a mile,

but middle of the pack in runs and steals. Yeah, sorry, a world in which every team has a DH, which seems like the most likely outcome for 2020, there is no chance you're now. Like, I don't think your now is getting 10 starts in the outfield in a normal 162 game season where the Astros have to play

a dozen or so games in NL parks, but a lead where everyone has the DH for every game and there are a bunch of days off or a bunch fewer days off, there's no chance that guy's getting out of the eligibility. If it's just five appearances like the CBS standard, but five appearances versus, 10 starts.

That's a big difference there. Yeah. Yeah, so I wouldn't count on that. That's look, how much are you, you know you're going to sit

Otani a lot because he's going to sit a lot and obviously you're going to start him as a starter, starting pitcher on the days he's pitching. So I don't think, I don't think a ton is being wasted here except for the fact that you invested so much

in Otani. I would be, unless you just want to put Alvarez back on the market and see if you can get another fourth round type player in return for him, I don't think there's much you can do here. It's probably best to just let it ride for now. And maybe Otani's value will rise to a point where you can get somebody super high end for him in a trade later on. I would probably beg the commissioner to add a second utility spot, but that's probably not going to happen. But for, look, if you, if you're not using Otani as your utility bat,

I mean, you took them 50 second overall. And we've talked about this, that in a head-to-head league where you can change your lineup every day, Otani is likely a top 50 player. So you invested a lot to get him. And I would want him in my lineup whenever he is D-Hing. I mean, he's proven. He's, you know, over 900, each of his over 900 OPS versus two seasons.

I would probably shop Alvarez for, you know, maybe someone that can help you with those runs and steals categories since it sounds like you're a little bit weak there. But look, you invest that much in Otani in a daily league, I want to be able to get him in my lineup when he's deaching. So that's just how I feel about that. From Ian McCoy, dear Giovanni, John, Andrew, and Jordan. Man

I don't know Thanks for just highlighting it for me I think there Hmm Yeah I just I'm not seeing Whenever I see the name Giovanni My mind instantly goes to like

Gym leader and Pokemon I don't know why But I don't think My mind What's Bonnie Ribisi The actor And so I'm trying to see If maybe there's like

A TV show he was in But I don't think so Deepish head-to-head Categories League that counts saves and holds. Who do you like more this season with the late start? Corey Kinebel or John Brebia? Kenebel. I don't see a scenario where Brebeah takes the closer role for the Cardinals and holds it all year.

Definitely can see that for Kenebill, especially since he'll be ready to go by the time the season starts. I think the chances are actually much higher now that he overtakes Hater, because I think his best chance of overtaking Hater is from the very start of the year. And that's when Craig Counsel is going to be more willing to shake things up than if Hater's cruising a month into the season. So I think a Neville has a pretty, like less than 50%, obviously, but a decent enough chance of just being the Brewers closer this year and not looking back,

which probably means I need to think about making Hater not my number one reliever anymore. Scott, does it matter that it's a saves and holds league. So basically, whenever I kind of look at saves and holds leagues, I just want the better reliever. Is there a chance that Brebia is just a better pitcher this year than Knable? I mean,

I'm sure there's a chance. Only if Knavel is having trouble recovering from surgery. If Knevel's Knavel, it's not going to be close. Definitely going to be better than Brebeah. Yeah. I would agree with that. Just based on

upside, the the past two years that we have seen Canabel, he was a 358 ERA, 178 ERA, back-to-back seasons. That 178 back in 2017, he was up over 14 Ks per 9 in each of those two seasons. So, yeah, in terms of strikeouts and, yeah, I don't think he'll ever get back to, like, that sub-2 ERA, but a mid-3s ERA with elite strikeouts, I think that's definitely possible for Coneble. This next one's from Pete.

Hey, Austin, Chance, Matt, and Riley. Austin, like, Austin and Riley are both in there, so I can only think about Austin Riley, but... Chance Cisco? But what would the other ones be? I don't know. It's to be easier, guys. I don't know.

Well, you know what I think it is? I think Adam looks them up ahead of time. Well, no, but even I'm looking them up, and there's nothing. Because I can usually get them, like, 50% of the time. I've had no idea. This is, come on, guys. We need a chance.

I don't know. His first name is Riley. We don't have a fighting chance. Austin, Chance. Chance the rapper? I don't know. Just keep thinking about chance. Chance the ones that I have a rapa in there, it would be easier.

After hearing your podcast last week about you guys being down on Charlie Black I do want to remind people that us talking about that Charlie Blackman conversation was only if the league is played out in Arizona. So just keep that in mind. If everything kind of works out, he's still going to be a very good player playing in Courtsfield. I naturally looked at my league and tried to whip up a trade. I'm in a 10-te-to-head categories league and ended up trading Blackman and Frankie Montas for Shane Bieber and Fran Mill Reyes. Did I force to trade or is it legitimate? My pitchers are now

Garrett Cole, Jack Flaherty, Shane Bieber, Sunny Gray, and Zach Gallen. My outfield is Christian Yelich, David Dahl. Adam, you'll like that one. So shout out to Adam if you're listening on Stakeation.

Michael Brantley and Fran Mill Reyes, with Yelich and Cole being keepers from previous years. I think it's legitimate. I don't know... Well, you know, it seems like the... Jeff Passon said sounds like it's Arizona or bust

for the season happening and what Jeff Passon isn't the ultimate authority on all things baseball, but he's pretty plugged in. So, uh, I think now might be a reasonable time

to shop Blackman if that's somebody whose production you are worried about changing significantly. Uh, and this, you got the best player in the deal, I think, and Shane Bieber,

who I almost called Justin just now. Um, I do like Frankie Montas more than for Rambo Reyes, but I think the fact that you're still getting a high-end starting pitcher in the deal and you're getting the best player, it makes this trade very easy to justify. So it's probably not this,

but I'm going to go with that they're all Adams. There's the reliever, Austin Adams. There's Chance Adams is a thing, right? Yes. Okay. Matt Adams, obviously. And there is a Toronto Blue Jays minor league. are named Riley Adams.

So they are all Adams. That's what we're going with. That's the official answer. Thanks for listening to Fantasy Baseball today. I'll just be leaving now. I'll let Chris take it over from here. But you know what? It seems feasible.

I think that you're, I think you're on to something there. I'm almost 100% right. I'm almost 100% sure that's incorrect. No, I think you're right. Especially since he referenced Adams specifically in this. Yeah, that's exactly where my mind went. As soon as Chris brought it up.

up. He mentioned Adam specifically in this email. So it's probably something that he wanted Adam Azer to realize. He just decided to go with the most obscure Adams in baseball. Yeah, maybe he considers Adam Azer an obscure Adam. He wouldn't be the first or the last. And we haven't been seeing much of them around here lately, that's for sure. Again, you know, as soon as we bring up that Adam's not going anywhere, the guy just is gone forever, basically. Must be nice to take vacation. I had to do his job yesterday. I had to produce the fantasy football podcast.

And what is this? Oh, gosh. You know what? They got you working overtime here, Chris. It's unbelievable what they have me doing. Just getting back to this trade, I'm with Scott on this one. I like this trade. Even without the possibility, like even if Blackmen were playing in Corse Field,

I think this is a great trade. You give a black man who's, you know, third, maybe fourth round pick. Frankie Montas, I have as a top 30 starting pitcher. But, you know, Bieber, top 10 guy, consistently a second round pick. Fran Mulraeus, you know, a lot of us consider a breakout candidate this season. So I like this trade overall. I would give it an A-minus.

I like this trade a decent bit. As for the rest, I'm going to save the Javier Baez rankings debate because I don't want to rush this. I have to give it time to marinate here. I want to be able to give Scott all the time that he needs. I want to make sure I have all the time I need to defend Javier Baez. So we're not going to rush that. Scott, you mentioned that you almost called Shane Bieber

Justin Bieber. I actually have a player shirt from the player nicknames jerseys that says not Justin on the back. It's a Shane Beaver player shirt. Yeah, that's a good job of not to. taking yourself too seriously there, Shane. That's one of my, that's one of my favorite nicknames from the players' weekends.

Did he have like a PTNBA or whatever? Oh, player to be named. Yeah, someone wore the player to be named later because they were the player to be named later in a trade. So that's another one where, don't take yourself too seriously, have some fun with it.

That was really cool. Scott, you were wearing a brave shirt. Is there a name on the back of that shirt? Yeah, this is a shirzy. This is my Freddie Freeman shirzy. that I've been wearing for a few years now. The lettering's starting to crack. I actually have a replacement already,

but I don't want to start it down the cracking process before I'm totally done with this shirt. This shirt, let me see it up close, it looks pretty awful, but when you see it far away, you know, it still looks like a normal shirzy. So I'm not ready to give up on it yet, but I have the replacement lined up when that time comes.

You know, it looks pretty good from here. And one thing that I am jealous of you just as a Braves fan, this is just completely aside, is that not only are you set up very well right now, I mean, the Braves look like they're ready to go on a pretty solid run in terms of their farm system, prospects, the fact that Ronald McCune is like 22, you know, I love Ozzie Albies,

and Freddie Freeman's still, you know, one of the best players, one of the best hitters in baseball. So you're set up pretty well there, Scott. Oh, yeah. Yeah, that's, you know, I mentioned Waves Not Windows yesterday, and that's borrowing a quote from John Coppellella,

the now disgraced GM, former GM, but that's kind of been the Braves philosophy instead of going down the path of a five-year contention window and then rebuilding and then five years and rebuilding, having

a rebuild every 20 years and then just sustaining that as long as possible. I think the fact that they lost a lot of international, you know, they had to take a break from signing international players for the reasons that got John Coppola kicked out of the league. But that, that hurts. And that hurts with them doing that. But I feel like Alex Anthopoulos subscribes to the same thing. He's not as vocal as John Coppellella, but it seems like he does, which is why they've been so reluctant to trade from their prospect stash for helping the team right now. So, yeah, I think they're set up to be contenders for a long time. Chris, I don't share the same level of optimism for the Miami Marlins. I'm sorry.

Oh, well, no, I don't either. I don't know why anyone would. But, you know, it's fine. Look, if you care about whether your sports team is good or not, you're a sucker. We'll all be dead someday anyway. Fantasy over reality. That's why we're here. Tomorrow we will give away

three copies of Out of the Park Baseball, and we're going to recap a head-to-head categories draft that starts right now as soon as we finish this podcast. So we will do that for you tomorrow. Thank you for listening

to Fantasy Baseball today. We will see you there.