Fantasy Baseball Today - Mailbag! Players Affected By The Lockout, Favorite Draft Slot & More (2/23 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: February 23, 2022

We've got another mailbag for you! We start things off with a points league keeper question (3:00). ... How do you weigh expensive keepers vs. cheap ones (4:55)? ... Should you draft two closers early (8:10)? ... How do you balance your keepers (13:55)? ... Nolan Arenado vs. Bryan Reynolds in a keeper league (16:20). ... How should you handle pitching in a daily H2H points league (20:30)? ... Which players might be affected by the lockout (24:40)? ... What is our favorite draft slot this year (31:15)? ... We wrap up with our startup dynasty strategy (35:40). 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive. Sanofiis is magnificent. Got a fantasy question. Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. With fantasy. Now here's Frank Scott, Chris, and Adam.

All right, let's do another mailbag here on Fantasy Baseball today. Wednesday, February 23rd. I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Chris Towers. We have lots of fun questions here today. Appreciate everybody sending those in. Continue to do so. The email address is Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. We'll also take some of your questions via Apple podcast rating and review.

So what you do there, you leave us five stars. And in the review section, you can drop your question there. I know a few people have done so. We'll answer some of those questions here today as well. We really do appreciate it. But first, Chris, I have a question for you. How do you feel about sweet potatoes? Did we talk about this off the air yesterday?

we did but nobody else was supposed to know it yeah I think they're good I don't like them as like a dessert necessarily and I don't I don't like them at all when they're mashed they're too fibrous for that

but a roasted sweet potato with just a little bit of heat is very very good I'm a big fan I'm about it man roasted sweet potatoes I had those yesterday threw them in the oven dice them up a little bit. Man.

Hit them with a little chili pepper next time you do it. I went my first 29 years, Chris, and I was not about sweet potatoes at all. I turned 30. Flip to switch. All about it. A lot of the times that it served, it's like as a dessert or,

and it's like, if I'm going to eat a dessert, just give me a dessert. Right. Give me, give me a, I mean, I guess there's not that much difference between like a pumpkin and a sweet potato ultimately,

and it's just the spices. But still, you know, I like it as a savory dish more than a sweet dish. Although some sweet potato fries with a little marshmallow dipping sauce, that's also very good. Whoa, I've never had those. So if you know the spot, let me know, Chris, because, man, I want to try it. I've seen that before. It's like the sweet potatoes that are all kind of mashed up with the marshmallows on top.

It looks good. I haven't had to get myself. I don't like that much. It seems like it's... I think you need them roasted or fried is the big thing for me. I need a little bit of... I need that crust to go... to counteract the,

the mushyness that they get when they're cooked. All right. Yeah, I've never had them like that before. They look good, but again, it seems like it would be better as a dessert. I don't know if I, I want to mix that in with like my grilled chicken or my steak, for example.

So one day I'll try it, but there's our thoughts on sweet potatoes for anyone out there who was wondering. Let's jump into our Apple podcast review questions. This one's from Striss or Streis. Keeper question For a points league, Daily Lock, I have three keepers spots remaining of my eight. I'm already keeping Otani, Matt Chapman, Louise Castillo, Jared Kellnick, and Jose Altuve,

pick three of the remaining four with contracts in mind. So again, this is a points league. Trevor Rogers for one year, Devin Williams for two years, Chris Sale for two years, and Michael Kopeck for three years. Who you got, Chris? I think Williams is the obvious one to let go of. It's possible that at some point in the two years, he becomes the closer for the brewers

and is a really good points league option, but otherwise I think it's pretty unlikely that he's going to be someone you're really starting, whereas Chris Sayle and Trevor Rogers, I think obviously you're counting on as big parts of your team this season. And even though Rogers is only for one more year, I think that's more valuable. And then Kopec, he may not be a starter this year.

He may not be a starter at any point, but the potential for him to be that or a lights out closer remains extremely high. For those watching us here on YouTube as well, David Bowie just hopped up on the desk next to Chris. And she had this, she had this cute little, like, she just nudged you. And she was like, Papa, come play. This is what she does. As soon as the podcast starts, she's like, she was sleeping the whole time. And then as soon as the podcast starts, she's like, oh, it's my time to shine. I do agree with you.

I would throw Devin Williams back. I'm sure that this person is asking the question because it's a daily lineup league. So Devin Williams probably provides points every single day or not every day, but, you know, every other day. It could be. But yeah, even with that, I think I would throw Devin Williams back here and take those pitchers, Rogers, Chris Sale, and Michael Kopeck. This next was from Duke MCT. I'm in a 12-team salary cap league with a $260 budget. We start 10 pitchers, no starting pitcher or relief pitch.

designation, two at each infield position, five outfielders, and a utility spot. So pretty deep starting roster on this team. I have a large amount of good but not great keepers. I need to keep four of these. Jesse Winker, four bucks. Max Scherzer, $30. Rafael Devers for 23. Jordan Romano for eight.

Nick Castellos for 15. Shohei Otani, the pitcher for four. Chris Sale for three. Trevor Rogers for three. Luis Severino for three. Eloy Jimenez for four and Alec Manoa for 15 The thing is they don't mention

If it's a points league or a Roto league Just that it's a 12-team Keeper League So who would you who are the four Is it four? Yeah four of these Who are the four that you would keep? I would go sail

I would go Eloy I would go Devers And I would go with I think this last one's tough, Chris. Yeah. You get Scher at probably a bit of a discount at $30. He's probably a low to mid-30 pitcher at this point. Yeah, but in a keeper league, that's going to get pushed up.

So he could get, you know, it wouldn't be a shock if he got to 40. Yeah. And Trevor Rogers is a $3 pitcher, whereas, you know, where he's going to go this year, he's probably like a $10 to $15 pitcher somewhere in that range. obviously he has breakout ability so I think I would go with Rogers but it's close I think I would go with Rogers as well

and then you know basically that gives you an extra $27 to play with and it mostly just comes down to what's more likely you can get Scherzer and a player comparable to Rogers for 33 total or Rogers and a player comparable for you know with the

the remaining 30 that you've got there So that's, I think that's the way I would go. But it's also like the impact players are a lot more valuable than just, it's not like, it's not a linear difference. You know, the difference between the elite players and the good players. It's not just like, well, if he's worth 10 and you can get him for three, that's the same as 30 versus 23 or whatever. Like the 30, the difference between 30 and 23 or 30 and 37 is a lot bigger than 10 and 3. Yeah, and I would say if there's any way for you to find out who other people are keeping, like, if, all the ace pitchers are being kept,

then I probably want Max Scherzer because if you throw him back, he's going to go for a lot more money than $30. So I try to snoop around a little bit and figure that out. And I would say that for anyone who's deciding on keepers, right? Like, you have a decision like this,

a proven commodity at a high price versus, you know, a young breakout at a much cheaper cost. It's like, you know, try and figure out like who's going to be available and, you know, is Scherzer going to go for much more than 30? I think the answer is,

is probably, yes, even with that, I still lean with Trevor Rogers. These are the emails that we received. Again, Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. This one's from Sean. I have a crazy draft strategy question. Wanted to throw your guys way for the pot. For Roto, two-catcher league, like TGFBI. That's the great fantasy baseball invitational. It's run by our friend Justin Mason. It starts up next Monday, so you'll probably hear other podcasts, our podcast talking about the great fantasy baseball invitational. It's this big industry-wide set of leagues, so it's going to be a lot of fun.

It's 15-team roto with two catchers. Let's say you went, Fernando Tatis, Trey Turner, Cedric Mullins, some sort of steals contributor with the first two picks and took Salvador Perez in the third

and an SP or whatever in the fourth. Tell me why I shouldn't take Will Smith in the fifth in a two-catcher league. Wouldn't that give you an easy 30-plus home runs a possible 100 plus RBI slash run head start over everyone else in the league at the position

is this too crazy of a thought? So let's say you take Trey Turner, Cedric Mullins, Salvador Perez, your first three picks. 15 team, Roto, you start two catchers. You take a starting pitcher in the fourth. Let's say you wind up with, I don't know, Chris Sale as your SP1. Would you use that fifth round pick, Chris,

on Will Smith is what this person, this gentleman's asking, so that you lock up two amazing catchers on your team? I think it's a viable strategy. I guess I'm just trying to think through the implications of it because as much as we like Will Smith, I think it kind of goes without saying that Salvador Perez is the only catcher

who we really expect to produce as if you would start him at another position. You know, like last season, I guess Smith hit 258, 171 runs, 76 RBI, 25 home runs. Like that's pretty fringy at any other position. You know, like that's not that different from what like Josh Donaldson did. And, you know, a somewhat similar amount of playing time. And Josh Donaldson's going outside of the top 200 right now.

So it's like, yeah, that'll give you an edge at catcher. but the edge of catcher doesn't it's not just like you're not just trying to get an edge of catcher you're trying to get the most number of home runs rBI runs etc and i'm i'm just not sure that that gives you that edge but it's it's honestly something that i might have to you know dig deeper into because it's entirely possible it's viable yeah i get it's just look especially in a two-catcher league. You set yourself apart from the rest of the league in a 15-team league to get those two guys

as you're starting two catchers. But you also have to remember, it's the opportunity cost. So when you take Salvador Perez at the two-three turn in this format, you're also passing up on guys like Tim Anderson or Yerdon Alvarez or Whitmerfield or Teoska Hernandez. I mean, these are legitimate hitters. Not that Salvador Perez isn't, but they're going to do it

over the course of, you know, an entire season, likely more playing time. And look, catchers just have more risk of getting hurt. So I don't mind doing it. And Perez isn't the issue, I think. Yeah. It's doing it for both. Yeah.

And specifically for Will Smith, who if he wasn't a catcher, I mean, he's what, 26? If he put up those numbers last year as a 26-year-old and we didn't expect a big increase in playing time, you know, he might go 100 picks later. Yeah. I mean, he still does, he sets his, he sets himself apart from other catchers.

Yes. I mean, even, you know, even though that overall stat line is not great in like the grand scheme of fantasy baseball, like, compared to catchers, like, you know, he's easily a top three catcher. You know, you're hoping for 150 runs plus RBI for Will Smith probably, maybe 160. You know, Nick Castellanos might give you 200 or 210 or, or, you know, Elo Jimenez might hit 15 more. home runs than Will Smith and drive in 30 more runs. And so I don't know if chasing positional scarcity to that degree makes a ton of sense when you're paying a premium for it. Especially in a league this deep, because I've noticed if you try to overdo it at any one position, you're going to have a flaw on a 15 team league no matter what. But the more that you kind of

lean into that, like taking two catchers with your first five picks, you're setting yourself back much further everywhere else. So in a strategy like that, you don't have a third baseman yet. You should have speed theoretically, but you're setting yourself back in terms of not having a closer or not having an SP2. So you have to keep all these things in mind. I actually think I'm more likely to take Will Smith in the early fifth than I am to take Salvador Perez. I just, I think at the two three turn, it's the opportunity cost for Sal Perez there is, it's pretty massive. I think if you want to do it, just take Yosmani Grandal five round or four rounds later than Will Smith too. I mean, you know, I'm about it.

Like, Will, you know, like Lizmani Grandal plus Salvador Perez, that might give you the same edge. Sure. Yeah. Or, I mean, what I've been doing is take Randall as your one and, you know, just find someone in that like 12 to 15 range that doesn't completely sink you. Like a Mitch Garver or a Sean Murphy or Omar Narvaa, someone like that. But I get it. I get why you want that advantage. Me personally, I think it's a little bit too much to invest two of your top five picks in that format. This one's from Chris, Dear Freddy, Chipper, Dale, Dale, Hank, Robert, and John.

Oh, I feel like Scott should be here for this so that he can name all of these Braves players. That would be. I mean, yeah, they're all braves. I'm just not sure. Like, is it just, they're just good players for the Braves? Yeah. Is there some kind of common theme? Freddie Freeman, Chipper Jones, Hank Aaron.

It's Dale Murphy And I don't know what the other Dale is Dale Earnhardt I don't know Robert Who's the Robert here Someone's probably yelling at me right now John

John Smoltz That's the That's the one I don't know Yeah I don't know Let us know Chris not you The guy who emailed us in A couple keeper questions for you

I have a 10 team 5x 5 traditional Daily head to head league We can keep up to 3 costing your highest picks available Picking 10th in the fourth round and a snake the rest of the way.

Should I keep all the offense and a category elites I can and hunt value starting pitchers later or try to balance things out a bit with my keepers? The easy choice keepers are Juan Soto and Shohei Otani, but thinking hard about who to keep last. Luis Robert, Brandon Woodruff, Salvador Perez, Yerdon Alvarez, or Jacob de Grom. What do you think?

Yeah, I mean, I think it comes down to Robert, Luis Robert, Brandon Woodruff, or Jacob de Grom. I think those are the three in my rankings that are more in like the 20 range

than the 30 range, which is where Perez and Yordon are. So it comes down to those three and, man, it's a real tough decision.

I think, I think I would go with Robert. Over de Grom. I would take one of the pitchers, because you already have Soto and Otani. You have two first-round caliber hitters.

And I love Luis Robert, but I think I would want to give myself that ace too, so I'm not chasing it as much throughout the draft. I would have to imagine at least a few other teams are keeping pitchers too, so it might make it even a little bit more scarce. I have Woodruff ranked ahead of Jacob and Grom because I don't know what's going on with Togrom right now,

so I would go with Woodruff. You're sticking with Robert? Yeah, I think so. All right. This one's from Brian, aka Bat Intentions. Hey, Randy, Felix, and Jamie. Those are Mariners pitchers.

Oh, yeah. Randy Johnson, Felix, and there's Jamie Moore. Okay. Yeah, I was having a brain fart on the Jamie. I'm like, is it Jamie Moore or it is, right? It's very late. We're recording this. Are those like the all-time leaders and wins for the Mariners?

I feel like that might be what that is. All-time. Mariners wins, leaders. That might be it. Yep. That's what those three guys are. You are correct.

Felix 169, Jamie Moyer at 145, Randy Johnson, and then a huge drop to Freddie Garcia who has 76 as the fourth ranking on the Mariners' all-time wins list. I'm in a 12-team points Keeper League. Each season, we keep four players,

six players, or eight players, and we cycle through those numbers in perpetuity. Last year, I 100% went for it, and in the process, traded away all of my draft picks. I now don't have a pick until the 13th round, and this is a sick keeper year, so the 13th round draft pick is more like a 19th rounder. Yikes. I'm going to keep Fernando Tatis, Mani Machado, Walker Bueller, Max Scherzer, and Robbie Ray. Who would you recommend I keep as my sixth starter?

Do I keep Nolan Aronado? because he is the most proven remaining player or do we take a flyer on a guy like Brian Reynolds who could end up being in my four keeper set two years from now. So obviously projecting forward that Brian Reynolds just continues to get better here. What do you think, Chris?

Nolan Aronado versus Brian Reynolds. I think Aronado is the better player and I think it's pretty unlikely that we're ever viewing Brian Reynolds as a yearly top, what, 48 player, I guess is what that would be in order to justify that. So I don't think that Brian Reynolds really gets there.

Like you're talking two years from now, Brian Reynolds is going to be 29 in two years. So, you know, it's possible we've seen the best of him also. So, yeah, I would go with Aronado and just play it for this year. Yeah, I agree with that. And even if things don't work out this season, I think that no and Aronado will have more immediate trade value than Brian Reynolds. you can flip him for something else,

even if it doesn't work out for you this season. This next one's from Jason, Dear, Cusco, Dickey, or Higgins? Cusco, Dickie, and Higgins. Do you know what these are, Chris? Is that the Emperor's New Groove? I think... That's what I'm seeing on...

I think David Spade's character was Cusco. Yeah, that's what I'm seeing on... I actually don't know if that was David's... I think these are all David Spade characters. that he's acted? Yeah, that's what it is, yeah. Ah, Richie from the Benchwarmers. Chris, did you ever see Benchwarmers?

I have not seen Benchwomers. Oh, it's so good. It's so cheesy, but it's so funny. Oh, my gosh. That's, there you go. Good, good call on the... Oh, man. Yeah, Dickie Roberts, former child star.

That's the one. This is what Scott and I learned last year, Chris, in the regular season when, you know, you had more football response. responsibilities down the stretch. I only know like cheesy comedy movies. That's what we learned. It's like growing up, it's like all the Adam Sandler stuff, all like the Adam Sandler family type movies. The Adam Sandler Cinematic Universe, yeah. Yeah. So like bench warmers, grandma's boy, these are all movies that I've seen like 20 times each. So in hindsight, I should have stopped watching those

movies eventually and, you know, probably started watching other movies. Yeah, like maybe like instead of the 21st viewing of bench warmers. No country for old men. Right. I've never seen it. Similar vibes. I probably should see it. But it's a hilarious movie for anyone who hasn't seen it. I mean, grandma's boys are pretty good. It's great. Last year was my first year in fantasy baseball and I learned a lot.

My league is a head-to-head points daily lineup league. I was wondering what your draft strategy would be going into this year. I'm thinking going starting pitcher heavy. Pitching is what came to bite me last year. I didn't have enough depth. I like Brenda Rogers, Chris Taylor, and Jake Cronoworth, who can give position versatility and are going later in the draft. So obviously that's from a hitter side, a hitter perspective.

Chris typically in a points league, you know, I know Scott and I usually are the ones advocating for drafting, pitching early in this format, but this is a daily lineup league. So I don't know if it matters as much because I feel like you could stream more pitchers in a daily lineup league. Yeah, like that's the thing is that at the, very least, you probably want most of your bench to be starting pitchers, and you just want them in there as much as possible, because it's very rare that you get negative points from a starting

pitcher in a points league. Even in a bad start, you know, the kind of start that would hurt you in a roto league, you know, someone goes three innings with four strikeouts and gives up four runs. You know, you might get, I don't know what the actual points on that would be, but you, you'll get something from them. And so, yeah, I almost think you can, you can go SP heavy. or you can go the opposite way and fill out your lineup, your hitters with studs throughout the, you know, like don't take a starting pitcher

until your full lineup is set of hitters and then just take as many starting pitchers like the rest of your draft is starting pitchers and you just could try to overwhelm it with volume. So, you know, I think I would do it the opposite way, Chris. I think I might try and get three pitchers in my first four or five picks, skip that in time. higher middle class, and then just load up on pitchers late, right? So this is a daily points

league. I want all of those old guys that are going late in drafts that Scott has been targeting, for example, Kyle Hendricks, Adam Wainwright, Zach Rankie, these guys go so late in your drafts, and you'll be able to stream them and continue throwing them in your lineup, daily lineup league, and theoretically they should give you innings. They go deep into starts. They should give you wins. You know, I think their effectiveness is starting to wear down a little bit, But that's what I would do. I know that you've studied this, Chris, and really the middle class of starting pitcher

is the least reliable in returning profit in fantasy baseball. So I think I try to get three starting pitchers with my first four or five picks, skip out on the middle class, and then load up on a bunch of veteran guys that give you endings later on. That's what I would do.

Sure. All right, before we hit the break, I want to remind everyone to download and follow fantasy baseball today in five. You may have heard some of the, some of these short podcasts in your fantasy baseball today feeds, wherever you listen to this podcast. So we've been experimenting a little bit by inputting some of our FBT and 5 podcasts there.

So if you just want to listen to those shorter podcasts on a daily basis, we put one out there every Monday through Friday. So if you haven't already, download and follow fantasy baseball today in 5. We really appreciate it. We are going to take a quick break. When we return, we have more questions here on fantasy baseball today. All right. This next one's from Austin in.

South Jersey. Hey, Ripley, Hicks, and Newt. Ripley, Hicks, and Newt. Is that? Oh, this, I've Googled it. Do you have any guess before you look it up, what it is? Is it, uh, the fantastic beasts and where to find them? It looks like it's from the aliens movie or the alien? That was the other way I was going to go. It's either Ripley from aliens or I was going to say Newt Scamander from the Fantastic Beasts.

movie. But yeah, Ripley, aliens make sense. Yeah, haven't seen a single alien movie in my life, but at least I've seen... The first two especially are, like, it's shocking how scary the first one still is. The second one's like a bigger movie.

The first one is just like, man, it is creepy as heck. I've got to check it out, but, you know, at least I've seen hot chick 20 times. All right, here's the question from Austin. Rob Schneider is the animal. That's right. Clearly there is a lot up in the air right now, but is there any predictable

fallout from this lockout in terms of fantasy production? Certain types of players more prone to a slow start due to the delayed slash shortened spring training. Slow starts for players who are currently unsigned and will need quick acclamation to their new team like Nick Cassiano's, Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman, etc. I think it's a good point. One that we really haven't talked about much recently or at all, to be honest. But yeah, like, once the lockout ends, there's going to be this flurry of movement because all of these players are still free agents. There's trades that need to happen.

And basically, MLB is going to tell players, hey, you have to report to your teams in like three days. And these guys might not sign contracts in three days. So I think that this is a fair concern. I think that there's still, like, a lot needs to happen in terms of, like, shaking out bullpens. there's relievers that need to be signed. There's Craig Kimbril hopefully gets traded somewhere.

I think that these are all fair concerns. Chris, have you thought about this at all in case we get a delay to the season? Well, I think the problem is, as we, you know, I think learned in 2020 is those are, there are going to be players affected by it. I don't think there's any way for us to know. Yeah. You know, some players, like we do have evidence to suggest that players who switch leagues, you know, in the off season and in.

season perform worse, especially hitters. You know, that's, but that doesn't apply to everyone, you know, and it doesn't apply to everyone equally. And it's, you know, a trend. And so, you know, if Freddie Freeman switches leagues, I think you could say, well, maybe there's a little more risk there that something like what happened to Francisco Lindor last year happens to him. But I don't think you would want it to be a significant part of your decision-making process.

I think, you know, it's a, it's a. potential tiebreaker, but everything else that we're talking about, you know, players who might have a slow start because of delayed spring trainings, I just don't think we know. Like, and I don't think there's any way we can know unless some player just comes out and says like, hey, man, I'm not ready for the season, which I think there were some like, there were some quotes from like Christian Yelich before the 2020 season that we like, that I saw flagged afterwards that were like, oh no, he talked about how they like didn't feel their offense didn't feel quite prepared for the season. Yeah.

So it's entirely possible that we'll find that out. But I don't think there's anything that we can know right now that would really help us there. The one exception might be if we only get a four week spring training. Maybe veteran pitchers are more ready to pitch full workloads at the start of the season. and maybe you're someone like Trevor Rogers might be limited to 65 pitches in his first start and would work up and so maybe you lose I don't know 10 innings in the first month from him

and given the concerns about inning workloads for guys like that already maybe that just further messes them up but then again you know 2020 didn't exactly go how we expected it so I don't know it's all interesting to think about, and I think there's some interesting thought exercises, but as far as

impacting your approach for fantasy, I'm not sure there's much there. A few names that come to mind, I think you should pay attention to the players who are injured because if the season is delayed at all, that only helps them and their ability to return whenever the season starts. So, for example, let's just say the season doesn't start until May 1st. Ronald Acuna then should probably be a top three player in your fantasy league because I think he's probably going to be good to go by May 1st. I mean, I'm not saying that's going to happen, but that's an example of something

that you should pay attention to, or just players coming back from injury. Charlie Morton off the broken leg, Jameson Tion is coming back from an injury. DeJala Mayhew is coming back from surgery. So anyone coming back from an injury. The inverse of that is Ramon Luriano, who is suspended

for the first 22 games of the season regardless. If there is any kind of shortened season, that's just means he's missing a larger percentage of the season. So he was like the one that comes to mind. Plus like yeah, I guess a few slow starters in general like Paul Goldschmidt has been a slow starter the past couple of years and Luis Castillo. Well, actually if the season starts in May, it won't be cold anymore. So maybe it helps. Well, that's the thing is that there are so like Raphael Davers, I think has historically been a slow starter. But how much of that is cold weather versus how much

of it is just, I mean, it could just be random. I remember Adam LaRose, I think, was the guy who just like, I can't remember for the first few years of his career, he was always really good in the first half and then bad in the second half or the opposite. And it was this like big thing that you couldn't, you couldn't trust Adam LaRoche in one half of the year. I don't remember exactly which one it was. I think it was, he was better in the first half than the second half. And it was this thing where, ah, you got to trade Adam LaRoche in the second half or whatever. And then it turned out that as he got more experience, it was just kind of random. And over the course of his career, there was not much of a difference between how he performed. So I don't know how much to take from that, you know.

All right. This next was from Ben, dear Jim, Scott, and Albert. I've had some, I looked at this beforehand, so I've had some time to think about it. You got those? You got it, Chris. Jim, Scott, and Albert. St. Louis. Oh, yeah, yeah. Cardinals, mid-2000s. Right.

Jim Edmund, Scott Rowland, and Albert Pujols. Love the content. Keep up the great work. I play in a 10-te-head-to-head Categories League, 5-5 with OBP instead of average, and quality starts instead of wins. I unfortunately finished last in the league last year, but based on our league rules, that means I get to pick my draft position.

Is there a spot in the draft you guys typically like to select from? I'm leaning towards 4 to 5 to hopefully get a five category stud like J-RAM or if any of the top guys fall, but would love to hear your advice. Well, you know, if any of the top few guys fall to, you know, four or five and you can take them there, you could just take them at number one. But you'd have an earlier second round pick. Yeah, yeah.

Historically, and I believe this is true in both fantasy football and fantasy baseball, the highest win rates tend to be for the first pick. now some years there are clearer number one overall players than others or um but i don't know in terms of just like who do you think is the best player in fantasy this year i don't think that there's a consensus answer like but that's just because of fernando tatis's injuries correct yeah if if he if we didn't have injury concerns about him he'd be the clear like they would be like early career Mike Trout level certainty about it. Right, correct.

I agree with that. So I kind of think it might be overthinking it to drop to five to get Jose Ramirez in the belief that we are good at collectively assessing the risk of someone like Fernando Tattice to struggle, suffer a season ending injury or an injury that just ruins his season. And to assess the likelihood of that versus the likelihood of that happening. to any other player. Because, you know, as we've seen over the last few years, that happened to Cody Bellinger out of the blue.

It's happened to my trout multiple times. You know, there's a chance it happens to any of the guys. And I don't know if the, I think Fernando Tatis is still valuable enough that I would just take the number on pick. And that is what I did in Tout Wars. You know, we did a Kentucky Derby style pick. And I think that's,

what's called, right? Yeah, Kentucky Derby South. So basically you put in order the preference of what picks you want. And I just put number one, number one. And I had the fourth order, fourth pick, but I ended up with the number one pick. And I'm perfectly happy with that

because I do, like, I think the gaps between guys at 18 and 24, or 19 and 24 are, that's where things start to get a lot more muddy and where draft position matters less, because you can't predict who's going to be there. This is the one spot in the draft where you can say,

I've got my guy. No, I agree with that. You have to know yourself as a draft or two. If you like having the wheel pick and you, you know, having those two picks in a row and, you know, you don't have to worry about paying attention to both sides of the draft.

And, you know, if someone's starting a run, a positional run one way or a categorical run the other way, just take the first overall pick and then you have the wheel pick every round throughout the, you know, every turn of the draft. And of course, you get Fernando Tatis.

So obviously that's great as well. But I mean, I think I actually kind of lean with what this person's saying here. I think I would just take the fifth overall pick. I think Tatis is the number one overall player. But like, I think you don't think there's that big of a difference. Exactly. I think you can make a legitimate argument for any of those top five players. Tatis, Trey Turner, Juan Soto, especially in OBP,

Vlad Guerrero or Jose Ramirez as being the number one overall player. and I wouldn't have a problem with it. So I would take fifth and then have the earlier second round pick. But you heard both sides of the argument. This one is from Jacob. Hello, 2010, 2012, and 2014. Were those years that like the Giants won the World Series or something like that? That might be right.

Yeah, I think that's right. All right, I'm going to look up World Series winners and we'll figure it out. I'm pretty sure that's what that is. That's what I was thinking. Yeah. But I thought it was the Red Sox. Don't say that, Chris. Come on.

The Red Sox. It wasn't the Yankees. That is for certain. Here's the question. Love the podcast. First, a trivia question. Are you ready, Chris? I want to make sure that you're dialed in.

It was the Giants, guys. Ha. Ha! Look at me. All right. First, a trivia question. Who is the only player on NFBC through February 16th, who has never been picked one point?

but has also never been picked lower than pick nine. Hmm. Okay, let me, I'm going to pull up a list of players, but not the ADP. Just to be clear, I'm not cheating. Cheater. Chris is a cheater. I'm going to say, I'm going to say Boba Shett. It is Boba Shett.

There you go. Goodbye. Good for you. You got to get there, Chris. Yeah, I think Boba Shed is kind of like right in that That mix of top five players I just mentioned OBP you lower him a little bit But I think you know once you get to like

Six through nine six through ten That's where Boba Shet belongs to go Deserves to go my question What is your strategy for a dynasty startup Should I focus on young major leaguers Or will they be overpriced and should I go With veterans and prospects So this is a pretty loaded question

We've actually done a few Startup Dynasty mock draft on the YouTube channel. So we've done a Head-Ted points one. We've done a Roto one. So regardless of what format you play in, I would say go back and watch those. We've had some really great prospect-minded guest on as well.

But Chris, typically, I like to draft in the 23 to 28-year-old range so I can compete, but everyone's kind of getting better together at the same time. And so, like, the window is open. I typically don't target the top prospect. very early. Like there's so many good prospects, I feel like even if you wait until,

you know, round eight or later, you'll still get a really good prospect hall in your dynasty startup. And generally speaking, I think top prospects who haven't made it to the majors, especially,

are probably, I would guess their hit rate is a lot lower than it is for players who are drafted in the same range in Dynasty leagues, just because the top prospect hit rate is not as good as we often want it to be.

You know, like the top 10 guys, if 50% of the top 10 guys in a given year turn into above average major league players, that's a really good year for prospects. You know, it's a, it's a, the attrition rate for guys through each level is really, really high. I think you can, it just kind of depends on how you want your first couple of years in the league to go. Because you look at the most recent Rhodo dynasty draft we did. I wasn't in that one, but here's where some of the old guys went. DeGronman round four. Semion round six, Salvador Perez, round six. Scherzer six, Springer, seven.

Gosman eight, Jose Abreve 10, Charlie Morton 12. He has Monte Grondal 17, Clayton Kirchall 17. Joey got Votto 18, Nelson Cruz, 22. And so, like, you look at all that and like, man, if you want to win in the first couple of years, you could just take a bunch of those guys, have a really, really good team right now, and then understand that at some point you're going to have to rebuild.

And it's a question of whether you would want to rebuild in three years or right now, if you go super youth heavy. And I don't want to be a cynic, but we all play fantasy baseball, and we know that not every league lasts. And so you might only get three years, years in the league. In which case, if you've got a five-year plan, well, congratulations on

donating your entry fees. So I do think, generally speaking in dynasty, and this is true, of baseball and football, I don't think you should be thinking much further than about three years in the future. So if you've got a guy who's 27 and you've got another guy who's 24, and you think they're exactly as valuable right now as each other, I don't really think there's much difference between the two of them because you wouldn't necessarily expect, or it might be even better to say 24 and 21 because that 24 year old's going to be 27 at the end of the next three years,

there's no real reason to think that that's just going to drop off any quicker or with any more certainty than the 21 to 24 year old. So the 24 year old will probably be more of a, discount and ergo a better value. So I generally think the deep future tends to get overvalued in a lot of dynasty leagues. And I think the, uh, the immediate present can be undervalued. So I like, um, I like the idea of playing for now. I think that makes sense. Again, I want my core to be that 23 to 28 year old range. But as, as, As the draft goes on, I'm with you, Chris.

I'm going to mix it up. So I'm going to have, for every, let's say for every two old players, I'll take a prospect. Or maybe that ratio will be one to one. Or if I know I have an old guy, an older player at a specific position, I'll target a prospect at that same position. I think the example I have is from the last Dynasty startup mock draft that we did. I selected Whitmerry Field. He went way later than he normally does.

because he's, whatever, 33 years old. And then later on in the mock draft, I selected Nolan Gorman because he's a second base prospect for the St. Louis Cardinals. And that way it kind of covers yourself. All right, as Whitmerfield kind of gets phased out, hopefully Nolan Gorman is coming into his own.

So that's one way I would say pay attention to it where if you take older players, maybe try and take younger prospects with all this upside at the same position to kind of cover yourself, cover your bases. So... And just to illustrate a point,

point on the prospect thing. I'm looking at a prospect's only mock draft that we did in 2019, so before the 2019 season. And these were the first 16 picks. Eloy Jimenez, Michael Kopeck, Nick Senzel,

Kevin Miton, Cody Bellinger, Blake Rutherford, Jason Groom, Kyle Tucker. Eric Thames, I guess, would have technically been prospect eligible. I don't know. Mickey Moniac.

Alex Verdugo. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Corey Ray. Yadier Alvarez. Ian Hap. Mitch Keller. Mike drop. That's all you need to know.

I mean, look. It's just like it's... As much as we think we know, prospects, man. Look, projecting anything. in fantasy sports is very hard to do. It's even harder to do in baseball. It's even harder than that to do when it comes to prospects.

And I'm not downplaying the job that all the prospect gurus out there have to do because it's even harder. Like their job is harder. And I think Chris, like that list you just read off illustrates that perfectly. So as much as you want prospects and you want the young hype guys,

I get it. It's fun. There's a level of mystery. You don't know what these players are going to be. So yeah, I think that's a good point. You probably want to play more for the present in a Dynasty League. We are going to wrap there. Still had some questions left here, so I'll save those for the Mailbag podcast next week. But for Chris, I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.