Fantasy Baseball Today - Mailbag! Shohei Ohtani Solution, Vladimir Guerrero's Downside & More (2/2 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: February 2, 2022

We haven't talked about it much but do Scott and Chris think the season will be delayed (1:15)? ... We have mailbag questions (4:45). ... What should your strategy be in a deeper H2H categories league (10:02)? ... How might you handle third base in a NL-only keeper league (16:50)? ... What's Salvador Perez's outlook this season (19:35)? ... Should Shohei Ohtani be one or two players in Fantasy Baseball (24:48)? ... What is Vladimir Guerrero's downside (32:10)? ... Email us at [e-mail]. 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive. Serafeas is magnificent. Got a fantasy question. Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. With fantasy. Now here's Frank Scott, Chris, and Adam.

What's up and welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Wednesday, February 2nd. I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. And welcome to our first mailbag of the All-Wall. Offseason, keep sending those questions in. Email us at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. So I might have an updated email address coming for you soon. Or leave a five-star rating on Apple Podcasts and drop your question in the review.

Either way, if you just enjoy the podcast, we would appreciate a five-star rating on Apple Podcasts as well. Before we get into the questions here, I wanted to ask you guys, because we haven't really talked about it. Like we've hinted around and we've given some brief updates on what's going on between the players and the MLB owners right now.

They just met yesterday on Tuesday. They're going to meet again on Wednesday. We'll see what happens. But Chris, I guess we'll start with you first. What's your best guess? Obviously, no one knows, but like, where do you think this is headed? Like a delay to the season, two weeks, a month? What's your best guess right now?

I mean, the nice thing is we have a very recent precedent for how long they would need to get the season started. And that's the 2020 negotiations based on the COVID protocols. And so I believe we, With that, it was just about four weeks exactly from the start of spring training to the start of the regular season. And I think it was like three days before training camp where they agreed to the deal. So I do think we don't really have to worry about the season getting delayed until probably March 1st. Just, you know, if they were going to go with the late March start that that has become typical. If they wanted to start the first week of April, that gives us another week.

So I think there is still some flexibility where there's still some time before the seasons really, or any part of the seasons at risk. And at this point, I would be surprised if we missed, if we lost games this season, I wouldn't be surprised if it was delayed a little bit. But with a week, with a month left, with negotiations ongoing, I'm cautiously opting. optimistic. I don't know. It still sounds like they're quite a ways away. And I don't know how bridgeable some of these gaps are, but I think the stakes are too high to lose games. And I maintain that it's always going to sound like there are ways away until the agreement happens. Oh, I remember the 2010-2011 NBA lockout that cost the first two months of the NBA season. I mean, that was

got every night negotiating for like a month and it never sounded like they were all that close until yeah, until you get close until you start to see the horizon. So, you know, having gone through that, I believe I was still working at the, actually

no, I was already at CBS Sports. That was 10 years ago. That was my, like, right after I got hired. Things haven't gotten that bad yet in terms of, you know, the negotiations. But I guess, you'd rather see some more frequency of these meetings. You know, these guys don't have that much going on. Yeah, seriously, right?

Let's do it. Let's do it. Let's make it happen. Cautiously optimistic is one Chris Towers. I'm all about it. So let's make that happen. Scott, any quick thoughts? Well, cautiously optimistic that the season will happen. Right. You know.

Scott, any quick thoughts on where you think this is headed right now? Yeah. Well, all signs point to a delay to the start of spring training. Though, again, I think it could change abruptly, but I'm going with the people who are most plugged in, and that's what they're saying right now. But I agree with Chris that I don't think the season's going to be shortened. And I don't even really think the season's going to be delayed because spring training is longer than it needs to be. And even if there's a delay to spring training, that doesn't have to change the timeline for everything else. All right.

Well, you heard it here. Let's keep that rolling. I'm with you guys. I've been pretty optimistic this whole time as well. I mean, I feel like most people in like the industry. I know that they're just doing their jobs. They're reporting what's happening. But it feels like everyone else is being pretty negative about it.

But we'll cross our fingers and hope for the best here. Let's move into the questions. This one's from Andres Jones. Hello, Frank and the gang. I'm in a 15 team, five by five heads-to-head Keeper League with daily moves. I listen to your show every day. And I'm a waiver-wire Turner, which helped me win the league last year. Thanks.

Well, we appreciate you. I have the wheel pick this year. We keep 10, and my keeper starting pitchers are. Otani in the 6th, Chris Sale on the 18th, Justin Verlander in the 20th, Shane Bosn, 24th, Shane McClanahan in the 25th. If this were your staff, would you use one of your first two picks to take a stud pitcher, or grab the two best hitters?

My other keepers are Matt Olson, Wander Franco, Marcus Simeon, and then Spencer Torkelson and, I say, I guess that's a manual classet. All right, so what do you guys think? Given that pitching staff, Otani, Sale, Verlinder, Boz, McClanahan, 15-team league. I,

you're kind of stuck in the middle, right? Between, like, you definitely need, like, that can't be your pitching staff. That can't be the core of your pitching staff, at least. I don't, I mean, it could work out, but Salon Lerlader are risky,

Otani's not going to give you ace innings, and Bos and McClanan are, Right. Ify. But I don't think you have good enough hitters to not. So I kind of think you probably split it in half and take one and one. Yeah, I mean, it obviously depends who's available.

I mean, it might be obvious given the quality of hitter versus pitcher that's available. And I guess we're to assume that you play on Yahoo or one of those other sites that splits Otani into two different players and you only have the pitcher version because you live. listed them among your pitchers. If it's a site that like CBS where you can move them to either spot, then you should probably list them with your hitters. And then that makes it clear that you should go after pitching early. Yeah, I don't think just pitcher Otani's worth a six-round pick. Or if he is, it's not a great value.

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, this person does have surplus value in terms of sale and Verlander and McClanahan in terms of their. where they're being drafted. So, yeah, like, you're right. In a vacuum Motani in the 6th, probably not great there. But you also have to keep in mind, 15-team league,

if everyone's keeping 10 players. That's sure, 15-team league does. There's, you know, who's going to be the best pitcher at the 1-2 turn? I don't know, but I think the answer is, I think I agree with Chris. I think you probably want to go with 1-1. You need at least one more, I think,

like, sure-fire pitcher who's going to give you some endings there compared to those guys. Scott, what do you think? You're good with that, 1-1? Yeah, I mean, if it's a pitcher that really doesn't deserve it, I wouldn't force the issue. Sure, right. And same thing if it's a hitter, but, you know, ideally one in one, sure.

All right, this next one's from Brendan Sargent. If the name sounds familiar, that's because he was the Jeopardy champ back in season 37. I don't know when season 37 was, but it was part of his little signature on the bottom of the email, and I looked into it, and I was like, wow, that's true. This guy actually... I am such a Jeopardy aficionado. I have those names filed away, baby. Every winner, every season. I'm just joking, of course.

That's cool. I wish I could say I was a Jeopardy winner. I couldn't tell if you were being serious for a second there it's got. Well, let's answer his question. Looking for advice here, I could keep six of these seven players at the rounds listed in parentheses for context six by six with OPS and Quality Starts.

It's a 10-team league with five outfielders. So Bryce Harper in the first, Kyle Tucker in the second. Max Scherzer in the third. Jared Kellnick in the 17th. Friday Peralton, the 23rd. John Means Business in the 25th. Alex Kirilloff in the 28th.

We can keep the players at that round for one year. Then after that, they revert back to being one of your first six draft picks. Definitely keeping Harper and Tucker. Kiralov is such a steal at 28 and it feels criminal not to keep him. But I love Kellnick too. And feel really good about him. Ugh. All right, what do you guys think?

I think John doesn't mean business in this case. I mean, I'd be fine with keeping him in round 25, but he does appear to be your worst keeper here. I think that makes sense. Yeah. Yeah, I think it's between Means and Keriloff, because the round difference there doesn't matter that much. So, you know, if you want to have that third pitcher,

it's fine to take means, but he's, I don't know if the upside is as high. if Kirillov clicks. Means and Kirilloff are both in my breakout's 2.0. Oh, all right. Yeah, I've seen some, I've seen some love recently for John Means with the walls there in left field getting pushed back a little bit in Camden. It can only help. I'm sorry, one point out. I haven't written 2.0 yet. I was going to start I was starting to panic like, wait, are those two? Yeah, I mean, Chris, you and me both, man, because I would have had to drastically change this week schedule to make that happen.

So, yeah, no 2.0 yet. And I'm with you. I think I'm going Alex Kirloff here over John Means Business. This was from Ben in Reno. I have never won my home league and it eats at me every year, but I think there may be a design flaw that I haven't had the guts to try exploiting yet. The league is a 16 team, heads head categories league, four teams in four divisions. Division winners and two wild cards make the playoffs. But we have 13 categories, seven pitching and six offensive. So runs, home runs, RBI, average, steals, and total bases. And then for pitching, you have the five standard,

and then quality starts and holds are the additional ones there. Given the unbalanced scoring towards pitching, I've thought about going all in on pitching during a draft one of these years, maybe targeting one offensive category two, average or steals, question mark, so offset some variation in certain categories

on a week-to-week basis. In a year when everyone seems to be targeting hitters in drafts, at least early, is this the year I finally go all in on pitching. I think if you're trying to exploit the makeup of this league, I think the way to do it is Marmol strategy. Because you've got potentially four categories that you could dominate

with reliever heavy pitching staffs. Obviously depends on minimum innings pitched and stuff like that, but it's four out of the seven there rather than just two out of five. BRA whips, saves and holds. Yeah. And then six of the seven. of those seven hitting categories are just counting stats. So you could just go volume, volume, volume, volume, a hitter and relief pitcher heavy.

And that could put you in a space where even if you punt batting average, even if you got a bad batting average, because you've got Alberto Modesey and Joey Gallo and you just go for extreme guys like that, I mean, you could potentially be in line to be very, very good in what, 10 of the 14, 13 categories? Yeah, I like where you go with this. And we actually just wrapped up our headset categories mock draft. And something that Scott did is that he waited on pitching and he took a bunch of these veterans starting pitchers late

that are going to give you a lot of volume, the Adam Wainwrights, Kyle Hendricks, Zach Grinke. So I agree that, you know, maybe you target one or two stud closers, you grab some other relievers that are going to give you lots of strikeouts, some holds, and you're starting those most of the time. And then I think maybe towards the end of your draft, just take some of these veteran volume starting pitchers, just throw them in there and see if they can get you a few wins or strikeouts.

And then maybe even somewhat compete in that category. Chris, I think you're on to something in like going after the Marmole strategy, but I maybe would take it one step further and maybe just get myself a chance by drafting some of those veterans starting pitchers late. Well, those veterans might go against what you're trying to. to accomplish an ERA. But I don't know that I'd go as extreme as the Marmal strategy, which is very reliever-heavy. I think actually the only league I won, and what was a bad year for me last year, was the podcast for the People League, which is also a 16-team that categories league.

Obviously, not the expanded categories, just traditional five-by-five. But what I did was I went heavy at starting pitcher, and then I just went for sluggers. I just sold out for home runs, which I think would work even better. better in your league because you're kind of counting home runs twice there, home runs and total basis in two separate categories. And so if you want to try going heavy on pitching, that would be the second part of the equation, I think, is to specifically go after hitters that you know are going to hit a lot of home runs and don't worry so much about batting average or stolen bases, unless you

have it to get out Alberto Montessie at a good price. Like that would be the one exception. You guys are absolutely right. Again, like the only category that is not affected by hitting home runs or doubles and triples here is steals. So it's independent of anything else. All these other five hitting categories are tied together. So I agree. I mean, just load up on these mashers.

Four category. I guess in this case five category contributors if you count total bases. Yeah. And just look away from steals. I think that's the way to go. So good luck, Ben. Let us know. Let us know how it works out this year.

This one's from our guy, Shine Dog, who is one of our most frequent emailers, and we appreciate you, bud. In my home league, 10 teams, head-to-head points with roto rosters, corner infield, middle-infield, five outfielders and big benches. I am ninth overall.

I'm picking ninth overall. Assuming all the studs other than Tatis, Devers, Beber, and Tucker are available, who would you pick at pick 9 and 11 overall, specifically with these keepers, in mind. I will just say before even answering this question, it's going to be impossible for us to know

who's available, but we'll try our best. At shortstop, he has Tatis as a keeper. He has Jesse Winker, J.D. Martinez, Trank Grisham, Eloy Jimenez, starting pitcher, Zach Pleseck. I'm stuck with him, thanks to you guys. Well, I mean, thanks to Scott, I would say. Chris Paddock.

And then... I don't know. Please, try not to keep him if you don't have to. S.P. Anderson here, I'm going to assume that's Ian Anderson. The reason I mention my keepers is my outfield is almost full already. So do I wait on that last outfield outfielder or do I consider a Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Ronald Acuna. Maybe I could double dip SP here with some combo of Burns, Bueller, and Cole. Yeah. For a points league, given that the only good pitcher you have right now is Ian Anderson,

I think you've got to go after those starting pitchers. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, it would be tough to pass on a Harper Trout or a Cooner type player. But, yeah, given the way your roster's constructed, it would probably have to be. And that it's a points league. Like, that's the biggest differentiated for me. Yeah.

And you already have a stud hitter in Fernando Tatis. I mean, legitimately a top three pick in every league, regardless of the format. So even in a points league. So, yeah, I mean, at starting pitcher, other pitchers are being kept, obviously. I assume the big three here or not, because you mentioned them being available.

So yeah, if you can grab any two of those, even if you can get like a Scherzer or a Woodruff or a Zach Wheeler, just because other players are already kept, I think it's something I would look into based on the players you have here on your team. This next one from Samuel. I play in a deep auction, NL-only Keeper League,

with third base being so shallow, I am in a bit of a pickle. We have to give in our keepers a week before the draft. And as of now, Nolan Aronado, Austin Riley, and Justin Turner are under-com. contracts and unavailable. I won't know about Machado because the team that had him can give him a contract and will only have to overpay by a few dollars. I bought Cabrion Hayes last year for $16, which means I could sign him this year for $19. Based on last year, that's overpaying, but still

has potential upside. Do I keep him or risk it and hope Machado will be available, who I don't mind overpaying for with the shallow position, or totally punt on third base and just pay $1 for whoever I can get? Yeah, so I'm kind of out on Cabrion Hayes. Like, This is all of my mistakes coming home to roost this podcast between Hayes and Zach Placac and the last question. I don't think you have to be so desperate, even in an NL only league. I mean, that's the only reason you're considering it, right? But to invest 19 in Hayes, like Luis Arias. Yeah, Edwardo Escobar would be fine at all.

Just, yeah. Like, I would just, you're not getting a sure thing in Hayes anyway, so, you know, just gamble on somebody that you can pay much less for. Yep. I will point out that I am the highest on Cabrion Hayes, and in L only I have him, I have him as an $18 player in Roto. So it's not completely off, but I do agree with these guys. I don't think that you have to force it. I mean, look, obviously those big three that you mentioned are unavailable, but there's still some. some other names going later on in the National League that I think you might be able to get at a decent value.

So throw them back. And if nothing else, you can rebuy Cabrion Hayes for, I would imagine, probably cheaper than $19. So keep that in mind as well. This next one's from Andres. Can you please make an assessment of Salvador Perez in 2022? At first, I thought he would not be repeating his 2021 season and therefore a good sell-high candidate. So I dove deeper and his career high stats practically across the board were. in both standard and advanced metrics,

batted ball, stack cast, etc. Is 2021 his absolute ceiling never to be repeated, or do you believe that based on his underlying metrics, he actually has reached his prime and can sustain this level of production in 2022 and beyond? In theory, he should see more time as a DH with MJ Melendez being called up eventually, so his legs and overall fitness should have a better outlook in 2022.

Is he a must keep? That is the final question there. Scotty. There's a lot of questions in that question, and the answer is yes to some and no to others. But okay, can he repeat it? Most likely, no. It was a historic season.

No catcher other than Johnny Bench has ever led the majors and home runs in RBI. But he played 161 games. If you look at his 22 ratios, obviously, it was short season, so the totals don't measure up. He had a 986 OPS in 2020. It was far and away the best. best catcher in fantasy that year too. And like, just give me two-thirds of last year's production.

I think he's going to outshine every other catcher in fantasy. And that's obviously taken a big hit statistically. I'm not giving him much credit saying two-thirds of last year's production. On the other hand, two-thirds of last year's production would be the second best season of his career. Right, but my point is, like, clearly something clicked for him in 2020 that then carried over to last year. And, like, just performance-wise, I think he's the best catcher. And he has this huge playing time advantage, 161 games.

Like, you don't see that for a catcher. Yeah. So, like, I love Salvador Perez this year. I think it's such an advantage at a position where most every team is going to be weak. That I was saying when we did the, when we, on the YouTube channel, we did a mock draft, earlier. And I was saying anytime he's available in round four, I'm probably going to take him. And you did that. And he stole him from me, Scott. How dare you? But overall, I do agree with you. Go ahead, Chris. Yeah, I think that's all fair. You know, the one thing is like, sometimes guys do just get hot.

Sometimes guys do have a career season. This was in all likelihood his career season. That being said, I said that about 2020. And obviously, he wasn't as good on a per game basis, but he was by far the best catcher in baseball in 2021. So, you know, I don't really know. Like, his plate discipline's a disaster, but it's never been good. He just, he's been crushing the ball the last two seasons in a way that we've never seen from him before. So it's hard to know if he's going to keep this up, but we're talking about historic

level of catcher production at a position that generally doesn't age well, you know. So, yeah, he's by far the best catcher in fantasy. it's just you shouldn't expect a repeat of last season for sure. Yeah, nowhere close to that. If you look at the projection systems on fan graphs, they all have him projected for between 34 and 40 home runs, even 40, I would say, is pretty aggressive. But, you know, low to mid-30s at the catcher position

with as much volume in terms of counting stats that he's going to provide just because he plays so much. Yeah, the only other catcher who at 30 this year was Mike Zunino, right? And he's obviously a disaster of everything else. So, I mean, you'll take that. You'll take that and they'll still be the best catcher in fantasy. I do remember reading a quote last offseason from him because I was trying to figure out like how did he get to this level?

And something that he mentioned was that while he was hurt, I believe it was Tommy John surgery. Is that what he had the year before? Yep. Yeah, so he said while he was hurt, he kind of like rethought through his process and he wanted to be more aggressive on pitches inside of the zone. So the plate discipline, you're right, Chris.

It's still all over the place. He chases a lot of. pitches, swinging strike rate is high. But you look at his Z swing percentage, and that's just the amount of pitches he swings at inside of the zone. Since the start of 2020, that's been much higher than any other year in his career. So when he's seen pitches inside of the zone that he likes, he's taking advantage of those, and it seems like that is part of the approach that has

really helped take his game to the next level. So something I noticed there with Salvador Perez. Let's move on to the next one. Oh, there was something else from Andrew that I wanted to point out here, Scott. P.S. Scott, you're all that fit for 8Bits podcast was insanely entertaining. So there you go, Scott. You have a fan.

I appreciate that. This next one's from Cody. Fellas, please great. Wait, you skipped a, you actually skipped one. Did I? Yeah. The Salvador Perez question was from Andres. So I just read the, the ending of the question that I was supposed to answer.

So this one's from Andrew. Andrew was the one who gave you the compliment on all that's fit for 8 bits. Andres apparently did not like the podcast. No, he hasn't heard it yet. That's the problem. Andrew asked how to do. deal with Otani, which is always a fun topic, right?

What if you drafted, what if when you drafted Otani, he is only listed as one player. But when you draft him, you receive two separate players. Otani the pitcher and Otani the hitter. That way you can start either one or both in any given week while using this method if you were to choose Otani as a keeper. He would only be considered as one player, same as when he was drafted.

Same can hold it. If you were to drop Otani, you'd lose both the hitter and the pitcher. and free up two lineup spots. Just a thought, and it might be very difficult or impossible to implement on the back end, but it seems really fair to me.

Only issue is, the only issue I see with this solution is what to do for every pitcher that has to hit, and maybe this can be a thing only done for a pitcher who starts X number of games. Okay, what do you guys think overall about it?

I mean, pitchers are not going to hit anymore, assuming there's a universal DH, so there's that. But Chris, what do you think about this? We're four years in. There's never been a perfect answer for what to do with Shohay Otani. This would actually make Shohei Otani slightly less valuable because he'd be taking up two lineups spot or two roster spots.

Whereas the current one is just treated as a normal player or a normal player with double eligibility. So if anything, this just makes him slightly less valuable, which I think reflects his real world value less because the value of Shohei Otani is that he's two players in one lineups and one roster spot. This is one player and there are two players and two roster spots. If he's as good as he was last year, both pitching and hitting, you'll accept the sacrifice the lineup spot. Yeah, yeah. Because you'll just want both versions in your lineup as often as you can. If like his rookie season, he's only really hitting, then you've got a dead lineups in roster spot. Yeah, true.

So it could be both a blessing and a curse, though. I kind of like it, though, because you take the chance on if he is a pitcher, like as valuable as he was last year as a pitcher. then you have that luxury of throwing him in your lineup. And especially in deeper leagues, like, I talked about this, man. I had him in 15-team NFBC, the main event last year. It was my highest price point league. And it was frustrating because I had, you know, crap pitchers that I'm throwing out there.

And Otani was in my utility spot. And I needed his offense. So I couldn't take him out. And I missed out on all of his pitcher production. And it sucks. I'm at the point, and I don't think it will ever be implemented, where I just think he's one player. You can slot him in your lineup at either spot, and you get all the numbers.

I'm with you, Scott. I mean, that would make him the most valuable player in fantasy, but who cares? He probably should be. He just won ALMVP. I mean, he was considered the best, most valuable player in his league. Like, I don't see why that's reason not to do it. I guess part of the problem would be if he's not as good as he was last season, he would probably still be the best player in fantasy.

You know, like the four-win, the four- or five-win version of Shoheyotani is probably, still the best player in fantasy in that context. So you run the risk of over rating. I mean, if he's not good as a pitcher, you start him as a hitter and you get hurt by his pitch of stats in that scenario. So I don't know, I don't know that. Right, but if he's just pretty good at both,

he wouldn't win MVP, but he would be still by far the best player in fantasy. I don't think it would necessarily capture his real world value, but that's like there's no answer. There's no right answer. You know, like, there's, there's no way you can capture what he does without either overrating or underrating him.

This, this game that we play is a, is a facsimile of the real game. And, you know, he's a, he's an outlier of all outliers. So I don't know, there's never going to be a right answer for how to handle a player like this. I'll present it to my bosses and I'll probably get laughed at, so. But I'll try. Let's see what it. Because I'm all about it. I'm all about, you know, making Otani as valuable.

in fantasy as he is in the real world. But alas, here we are. From Cody, fellows, please grade my trade. 12-team Dynasty Roto League with five minor league spots. I traded Nick Prado and Jose Miranda for Corbyn Carol. All right, Scotty. So you've had a lot of the prospect list, the dynasty content coming out recently on the site. What do you think about this one?

Nick Prado and Miranda for Corbyn Carroll. I like Carol. I know the Welsh loves him. but this seems kind of like a lot. What do you think? I mean, it's a shallower dynasty league. Yep. Only five minor league spots.

So you're talking 60 total minor leaguers kept. And Prado and Miranda are probably right on the fringe of deserving to be kept if only 60 minor leaguers are capped. True. Yeah. Yeah, consolidate for the higher end prospect. I'm down with that. All right. So in another context where it's not just 60 players kept,

it probably would be too much. Well, and I might prefer just to have both just because the hit rate on prospects is so bad, even top 15 prospects that you'd rather have two bites at the apple for two sub-elite guys. If it's the Scott White Dynasty League where 240 minor leaguers are being kept, or actually that number's going up this year

because we're expanding to 12 minor league spots. So it's going to be 288 minor leaguers are kept. Who wants... Corby Carroll is still a little ways away. Yeah, he is. He dealt with a shoulder injury last year, which kept him out for most of the season, but the upside is still sky high for Corbyn Carroll. Speaking of the Scott White Dynasty League, obviously you guys are part of it. Anyone else who's in the Scott White Dynasty League, if you're listening, I need prospects. Send those my way. Let's talk some trades. Let's talk in the offseason. But we're getting close. We're getting close to that point where trade talks can start happening again. So I need some help. Help your boy out. This was from Joseph. Hey guys. Thanks for all the great content all season long. Who would you keep for only one season in a head-to-head points league?

Judge in round two, Kyle Tucker in round four, or Austin Riley in round 13? I'm leaning Riley, but wanted your advice. Yeah. Yeah, I think Riley is close enough to Tucker an overall value that I'll take the extra, you know, extra nine rounds of discount. If it was roto, I think I would go Tucker. I do think there's bottom-out potential. with Riley, even though he was very good last season. But yeah, in points, I do think it's probably close enough.

Yeah. So the way I'm looking at it is Tucker is typically a one-two-turn pick, and you're getting him in round four. Riley is normally like a fourth or fifth round pick. You're getting him in around 13, so you weigh that out. That doesn't scale linearly. You know, it's not like, well, one's three rounds better than his value. you won's nine rounds better than his value or eight rounds.

Exactly, yeah, you're right about that. So, like, the early round guy is still much more valuable at a first round value and a fourth round pick. Yeah, I mean, yeah, it's a close call. It's close. If it was Roto, I would go Tucker. Because I think the answer's more clear. I would take Riley here, though.

It is very close. I'm going to skip one of these. There's one other question I want to get to before we wrap up here. And this one's from Kevin. This was a fun one. I had some fun with it myself. So let's see what you guys think. Rank this player prior to 2021.

This first baseman had played 153 games and produced a triple slash of 265, 334, 430, with 19 homers, 80 RBI, and 66 runs scored zero steals. In 2021, he was limited to 117 games, but showed substantial improvement. He hit 292, 375, 517, with 27 homers, 63 RBI, 80 runs, and three steals. In 2022, he'll hit in the heart of a great lineup and a hitters park. Where would you draft him? Outside the top 20 at the position. Outside the top 20.

So this guy hit 292 with 27 home runs and only 117 games. You would draft him outside the top 20 at first base? Well, look what he did last year. He slugged 430. Come on, man. There's a lot of good, there's a lot of first basemen out there that can give you power. All right. All right.

Chris, what do you think? Yeah, I think that's probably fair. All right. Well, who is this player that we're talking about, that Kevin is talking about? It's Vladimir Guerrero Jr. if you remove all of his games from Dunedin and Buffalo last season. Now, I'm not saying he isn't a great player. I'm just wondering if we're sure he's early first round great. He had an 892 OPS in MLB Parks last year and he doesn't steal bases.

I take Freddie Freeman over him and he's going a full round later. Hot take Kevin. Fred of Green's OPS was right around 890, right? First of all, I looked at this backward. If you play back my answer, it'll be clear. I thought the 292-375-517 slash line was prior to 2021. Yeah, that's why I was trying to point it out, Scott. It was.

I got it backwards. Sorry. No, no. Oh, okay. No, 2021. That's what he slashed in 117 games. outside of those parks he no longer plays them. Right.

I mean, that's a really good slash line still. I know. It's an interesting point, though, and I wanted to answer this one because we haven't really talked about it, right? The fact that Vlad played in Dunedin and Buffalo, and those are like two standout parks in terms of like offensive park factors last year.

If you look at it, they both ranked very highly. He was still a very good player here. There's no doubt about that. In only 117 games, 27 home runs that would still pace out to like a, 35 home run hitter. But I think it's a, I think it's fair and it's something that we haven't really considered. So does it matter to you guys?

Yeah, like it's like second half. Vladimir Guerrero had a 906 OPS 288 batting average. The RBI numbers were really weird. He only had like 38 RBI and 74 games, which is like a 85 RBI pace for a full season. That's bizarre in that lineup. So I don't know how much you can take from that. But like, that's probably not for a guy who doesn't steal bases.

290. 9.6 OPS. That's probably not a first round hitter. Or it's like a fringe first round hitter. But it's definitely not like Raphael Devers. Yeah, it's definitely not, oh my God, this is one of the five best. Like this is this guy, you can overlook the fact that you don't get steals from it. This is always going to be the case with guys who don't steal bases.

And it's my concern with Wander Franco's long-term value if he's not a good base stealer, which I kind of think he's not. this is the concern is that like you have to be you don't have to be Wons Soto good Wonsoto is but you have to be Freddie Freeman good

to be a consistent first rounder if you don't steal bases right and even Freddie Freeman's always really been a fringe first rounder and no that's fair I mean like long term while Wander Franco

was considered you know the top prospect in baseball heading into last year even if he even if he turns into like a Xander Bogart's type, that's still like a really, really good outcome for him, but that's just, you know, that's more of like a third, fourth round pick for fantasy. So, you know, maybe he doesn't eventually propel into like that first or second round value. I mean, we're also talking about like a 20 year old, so like anything can happen with the guy. Right, right. And it's like, okay, let's, let's take his worst half and project it out over a full season. Like, it's, it's not fair to say, oh, well, that's really who he is, you know?

No, but it's not the only, it's not the worst half he's ever played. You know, his career didn't start last year. No, I get that. I get that. But, yeah, I mean, it just doesn't seem, it just doesn't seem reasonable to say, I don't know. I mean, like, I don't know if he can completely live up the last year's numbers, but like, if Raphael Devers is the worst case scenario, so be it. Yeah. You know, from the, from this entire discussion, my, my, my,

biggest takeaway here, Scott, is that Vladimir Guerrero probably still has a really high floor, if that's what we're talking about. Well, I mean, that's what we saw the first two seasons is even when he wasn't good. He wasn't bad. He was still an above average major league hitter. You know, I do think there's a chance that, like, we're probably overstating the difference between him and Freddie Freeman. You know, like, it mostly relies on with Vladimir Guerrero believing that 2020, 2021 is just the start of it, that, like, what happened before doesn't really matter.

And maybe that's just the case. But like if you compare Freddie Freeman to Vladimir Guerrero going back to 2020, which is only an extra 60 games, Freddie Freeman's the better player. So it's sort of arbitrary cutoffs. Like Freddie Freeman was better in the second half of 2021. He was better in 2020, but Vladimir Greer was so much better in the first half of 2020.

Right. But they're not random number generators. Sure, right, right. And Vladimir Guerrero is presumably on the upswing. Yeah. And Freddie Freeman is 31. and so you would expect one to be better and one to be worse moving forward

but that's not always how it works either so it's there's uncertainty is all that you have to say is that we're probably more sure that Vladimir Guerrero is better than Freddie Freeman than we should but you kind of have to be you know makes sense to me

all right we're going to wrap there this is our first mailbag of the off season we'll have a lot of these coming throughout the next coming weeks, you know, next month or so leading up to hopefully the start of the season. So continue to send your questions in for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching. Fantasy baseball today.

We'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.