Fantasy Baseball Today - Mailbag! Wacha to the Padres, Contract Year Players & Salary Cap Strategy (2/17 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: February 17, 2023

Frank and Scott react to the latest news, starting with Michael Wacha signing with the Padres. Frankie Montas is set to miss a large portion of this season. Then the guys answer your latest mailbag questions. Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

And welcome in Tough Fantasy Baseball today. Frank Stamphill joined by Scott White. Today on the show, we've got the latest news and notes. Michael Walker signed with the Padres. Frankie Montauz could miss the entire season. And of course, we'll get to your latest mailbag questions from both our Apple podcast reviews and some emails. Hello there, Scotty.

We're recording during the daytime. This is weird. It is weird. It is weird. that is that is the weirdness of February I guess and doing how many shows a week I guess it's just five right five for now but I think starting next week or the week after we go to six so it's it's a busy time what okay well yeah there's going to be some afternoon recordings then yep for sure let's jump in we've got some news and notes we'll start off with Michael Waka who signed a one year seven and a half million dollar

deal with the Padres kind of interesting structure here because it contains a two-year club option for 24 and 25, a three-year player option for 24 through 26. Last year, Michael Waka was pretty good on the surface, 3.32 ERA, 1.12 whip. You know, the underlying numbers kind of tell us a different story here, Scott. What do you think about Michael Waka going to the Padres? Well, I think there's a better chance

of him being useful in fantasy than Nick Martinez or Seth Lugo. Seth Lugo. I'm not sure which of those is going to be ejected in favor of him. I don't know. Maybe they'll go six-man sometimes. But, yeah, the back end of the Padres rotation was looking pretty rough, and it's hard not to see WACA as an upgrade. But, you know, I've done a few drafts this year.

I haven't done any NL only yet, but, you know, I've done a few. I've yet to feel the urge to draft Waka. So, yeah, the numbers last year were pretty good, but all the ERA estimators were not. And he seems like somebody who overachieved and wasn't especially durable in overachieving. Yeah, he only threw 127 in a third innings last season. That is Michael Waka.

Change the pitch mix a little bit through his four-scene fastball and cutter less while throwing his sinker more. So the strikeouts were not impressed. It seems like he was pitching more to contact, but it worked at least last year. We'll see if he could do that again. You're right, Scott. I mean, the Padres needed help in the back half of this rotation, and for now, they maybe got that in Michael Waka. Say It Ain't So, which is actually my favorite karaoke song, Scott.

Jacob de Grom had his throwing session move back due to tightness in his left side. I don't think this is a huge deal, Scott, because it's the middle of February. But the fact that it's Jacob de Grom who just misses so much. time regularly. I thought it was kind of worth mentioning. Yeah, no, I agree. Just like, here we go again with Jacob de Grom. Hasn't even thrown his first inning yet,

and already he's dealing with something. So just a reminder not to get too sanguine about Jacob de Grom and his chances of staying healthy this year, judging from where he's being drafted. I don't think anybody is. I mean, I think a lot of that injury risk is built in. but for good reason. From one injury to a much more severe one,

Frankie Montas will undergo shoulder surgery and miss a significant portion of the season, which the Yankees have a way of doing this where they kind of wait and wait and wait and then their players have surgery at the most inopportune times. We know that Montas had a shoulder injury last year.

Why didn't he have surgery at the end of the season? and maybe he's back sooner. I never really understand how these things go. It seems to happen a lot with the Yankees specifically, doesn't it? It's very weird. I don't know what's going on with them. Maybe they're just optimistic going into the off season. Everybody's happy to go on vacation at the end of the year,

and they're just like, ah, we'll deal with that later. Yeah, something like that. Anywho, it looks like the person filling in for Montas will be Domingo Hermann, who last year had a 3.61 ERA 1.16 whip, strikeouts, fastball velocity, swinging strike rate, all down from where he's been at in years past, Scott. Any interest in Domingo Hermann as a late-round sleeper?

You're not in like a standard 12-team league. I could see him. It's kind of like Waco, where, like, I could see him being useful for stretches, but I don't think there's particularly high upside. And it's, you know, it'd have to be a pretty deep league for me to invest actual draft capital in him. But yeah, Frankie Montas, I would say, he had been getting drafted in virtually all east. And obviously, if they're talking about

a late season return at best, there's no reason to draft Montas anymore either. Who would you rather have between the two, Scott? Domingo Hermann or Michael Waka? I'd have to dig into that a little more, I think, to say for sure. I'm going to just kind of gut reaction. I'm going to say Waka. But again, it's not, it's not,

a strong favoritism. Yeah, I don't know that they're that dissimilar, right? It's the surface numbers are good, don't really trust it. They both pitch for good teams, the Yankees and the Padres, respectively. But yeah, these are more late round guys, deep leagues, and AL or NL only. Liam Hendricks will be around the White Sox for spring training, but an update on any timeline will not come until at least opening day. Hendricks was diagnosed with non-Hodgkins lymphoma this all season, which is obviously

incredibly sad and we're wishing him the best and hope that everything works out and he gets back on track and he's back in baseball within the year, next couple of years, something like that, but we just don't know. And I kind of hate to look at this from a fantasy perspective, Scott, because obviously it's bigger than baseball. But your best guess as to who will open the season as the White Sox closer. My assumption was Kendall Graveman, but I've heard more whispers recently about Rinaldo Lopez. Yeah, I would say it's between us too. Graveman is my, best guess because he got six saves as sort of the backup closer last year for the White Sox and was pretty consistently the eighth inning guy.

He did have a 1.40 whip to go along with this 318 ERA, but we've seen him be better than that in the past. He's a little, he's kind of vulnerable to having a high whip as a big ground ball guy and not so much a, not so much of a batmissor, at least by closer. standards. So, you know, it may be more palatable that whip than it seems. But it wouldn't surprise me if considering this is more of a long-term fill-in situation, they decided to use Lopez there instead. Or, you know, the worst-case scenario for fantasy, they might just mix a match with the two of them and it makes it hard to invest in either. It certainly seems like Renalo

Lopez has the stuff to be a closer in baseball and him working for just, you know, one inning at a time probably works out better for him. But we'll see. I mean, if I'm just betting on talent, I think it's probably Lopez right now, but we'll probably learn more throughout spring training. Reds manager, David Bell, reluctantly confirmed Alexis Diaz as the team's closer. I guess the only reason I'm hesitant to say that and I'm not is he's going into the season as our closer. There are times where it's an important game and he's fully available. use him earlier than that. He's been that good. So just kind of leaving open the possibility of using Alexis Diaz as a fireman in the biggest spot in the game. But as of now, still looked at as

the closer. I mean, this is more, more of a firmer commitment than I was expecting to get from David Bell, who has been especially reluctant to commit in recent years. Granted, he hasn't had a reliever as good as Alexis Diaz during that time. But, you know, he's even saying, he's not hesitant. The only reason I'm hesitant to say that, and I'm not. Yeah. So, like, that's pretty firm. And most teams, I mean, even the Mets with Edwin Diaz,

they'd use them in the eighth inning sometimes, if it seemed like, particularly down the stretch last year, if it seemed like he was more beneficial in that role. So this, I think, is very good news and reason for me to draft Alexis Diaz with more confidence. Scott, did you choose Edwin Diaz as? your example because they're brothers? No, I didn't. That is funny.

I used it as an example because it's true. Adamatovino was sometimes late last season getting the saves while Edwin Diaz was working in the eighth. I think it kind of went unnoticed, but it did happen multiple times. Scott mentioned this on our Outfield preview part two, but Randall Gritchuk is recovering from hernia surgery and will miss the beginning of the season.

The team acquired former top prospect, Nolan Jones this offseason, Scott. This is another deep league name that we're talking about, NL only. Do you have any hope here, a deep sleeper on Nolan Jones? Yeah, I mean, anytime you have a player, a hitter of some renown playing half his games at Coorsfield,

there's a chance for it to turn into something special. Nolan Jones hits the ball hard. He walks a lot, strikes out a lot too. But, you know, the Babbitt boosting potential of course, Field could overcome that strikeout rate in a way Cleveland couldn't. The bat's left-handed, so you wonder if he's how likely he is to get every day at bats. But I would call Nolan Jones a very deep sleeper. All right. Paul Seawald is a full go for the start of spring training after having

off-season procedures on both heels and his elbow. We're kind of waiting to learn more about Andres Munoz, who had an off-season procedure as well. Matt Moore signed a contract with the Angels and was really good last season in relief. 1.93 ERA, 83 strikeouts over 74 innings pitched. Scott, do you think Matt Moore can factor into the saves conversation for the Angels? It's possible. They don't have a clear option for the ninth inning. I think sort of the conventional wisdom was Carlos Estevez,

now that he was free from Colorado, a hard thrower, who got occasional looks as a closer during his time with the Rockies. Carlos Estevez was, I think, kind of presumed to be the front runner for saves there, but they didn't really commit to any one in the role after trading Ryssela Iglesias last year. Their best reliever prior to this Moore signing was Jimmy Hergit, I would say, or Hergett. Is it Hergett or Hergett? I believe it's Hergett. Okay. And he's a right-hander.

I would still guess Estevez. Like, if I have to draft one Angel's reliever, I would still guess Estabez because Matt Moore, they have Jose Quijada too. So they got a couple left-handers there. I don't know. It's pretty messy. It's one of like eight bullpen situations where you could, you know, I'll pencil someone. one in is the closer for now, but it wouldn't surprise me if it's one of three or four other guys or no true closer at all. And they're just totally playing matchups, at least for the first

couple months until somebody emerges. So yeah, one you'd rather avoid. Friend Mill Ray assigned a minor league contract with the Royals. He hit just 221 with 14 home runs over 118 games last season. Tyler Stevenson is expected to catch 65 games this year. He'll spend the rest of his time at DH and first base. I believe I saw it was he's going to start four every 10 games and then I think it's three DH and three first base, but either way, Tyler Stevenson should play a lot when he's healthy. Tyler Malley, who battles...

That's interesting that only 65 of those games would be a catcher. That is very interesting, right? That's why I included it. Yeah. So who's playing time is he going to steal a DH in first base? I mean, obviously Joey Votto is the... The first baseman. I imagine they'll dh Joe Evato a lot.

He's coming back from, I think it's shoulder surgery, and he's behind. So they might just let him DH quite a bit, Joey Votto there. Yeah, I mean, they have. T.J. Friedel is who roster resource has as their left fielder right now. They could shift Will Myers over there. I think they have options. Yeah. It'll probably be fine.

But still, I think of Tyler Stevenson is like a catcher, and only 65 games is, that's not many. It is weird. It's definitely weird for Tyler Stevenson. From one Tyler to another, Tyler Malley, who battled shoulder trouble last year, has no restrictions during spring training.

We have a few Orioles pitchers who are banged up early on in camp. Dylan Tate will miss the first month of the season due to a flexor strain. D.L. Hall will be slowed in spring training due to a lumbar injury in his back. And Felix Bautista will be delayed this spring while recovering from knee,

and shoulder injuries. I don't think that he'll miss time, but if he does, the team re-signed Michael Givens this offseason. So that's who I think would be next up for the Orioles. Yeah, I think it could be him, or it could be, let me see here.

No, that's, okay, I'm sorry, no. He's hurt, never mind. No, I, yeah, Felix Bautista seems to be the closer I'm drafting most often, so hopefully he doesn't end up missing time. I think he's great. I mean, I think he was kind of the breakout star at the position in the second half last year.

So hopefully, hopefully this doesn't hold him back. Ian Anderson underwent a biometric evaluation, this offseason that helped him adjust his mechanics on the mound. He posted a five ERA flat in just over 111 innings last season and is competing for the Braves' fifth starter job in spring training. Walker Bueller was placed on the 60-day IL and is expected to miss most of the season as he recovers from Tommy John's surgery, but he is a name to remember in Keeper Leagues,

where you can draft him late and keep him the following season for very late in your draft. So just remember the name Walker Bueller. And Giants' top pitching prospect, Kyle Harrison, will begin the year at AAA and could eventually make an impact this season. All right, Scott, let's get into the questions. First up, we have Apple Podcast review questions. This one is from Sam. I've got 10th pick in an upcoming draft

and was wondering who to pick between Mookie Betts and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Does not say the format. I'm not sure that it matters, Scott. I'm pretty sure you're choosing bets regardless. I am choosing bets regardless. I think I'm higher on bets than the consensus. I certainly prefer him to Kyle Tucker,

to Shoahe Otani. Not that Otani's an outfielder, but I think I might even prefer bets to Trey Turner just because it's so important for me to fill that outfield position early. And early basically means round one, as we talked about in our outfield preview there. It's a lot to choose from in round two and round three at that position. So certainly over Vladimir Guerrero,

who plays the very deep first base position, I'll take bets. And even if the positions were equal, I would expect bets to outperform Guerrero, obviously. Guerrero has a lot of upside, as we saw in 2021, but so does bets. And yes, Scott, you are ahead of the consensus. ADP for bets is 9.6. You have bets fourth overall in your head to head points rankings,

and sixth overall in Roto or categories. This next one's from D Fresh 9, Dear Rocket, Lefty, Smokey Joe, and Oil Can. I spend, you know, Scott, whenever we get these, I spend way too much time trying to figure out what things. are. It kind of stifles my productivity and without Chris here we're probably not going to figure out a lot of these. Well I mean rocket is Roger Clemens. Oil can is oil can boy. They were both Red Sox pitchers in the 80s. Okay. So I'm gonna guess

Lefty and Smokey Joe were too but I don't know who they are. Well you know what Scott? You got a lot further than I did so good thing we have you here. Players in the last year of a contract always seem to stay healthy and overperform which contract your should be targeted. I will point out it doesn't always happen but the ones that do happen are just ingrained in our mind

because they are usually very big seasons. Obviously Aaron Judge last year, Danesby Swanson had a very big season. You can go down the list. Every year it seems there's a couple of guys in a contract year that have very big years. And Scott, I listed a bunch of names here. Actually more than I even thought,

but up top, Shohei Otani is the biggest marquee free agent next off season. and I don't know how much better he can actually get because he's already, you know, maybe the best player in baseball. But a few that I highlighted that I think are pretty interesting. Teosker Hernandez, Matt Chapman,

wouldn't surprise me if he just finally gets back on track here. Lucas Gialito in a contract year. Sunny Gray, can he stay healthy? Blake Snell, Luis Severino. That's one where really wouldn't surprise me, you know, finally stays healthy for like 160 and performs like a top 12 or 15 starting pitcher. Tyler Malley, I mentioned earlier,

Jesse Winker and Harrison Bader. Those were kind of the injury-prone, fringy guys that I thought, all right, it wouldn't surprise me if they have a better contract year. Yeah, I've never been a big believer in contract year theory, and I do think there's a lot of confirmation bias that goes into that. I mean, certainly we've seen the opposite end of the spectrum where a player has one of his worst years before hitting free agency and then often has to sign a one-year deal

to kind of rebuild his value. Was that a psychological thing? Was he putting more pressure on himself? Heading into that big signing? I don't know. I mean, I think if you get to this level of baseball, you're probably pretty hard on yourself all the time and always motivated to do as well as you're capable of doing.

So I don't think there's much to the theory. theory, especially in baseball. You could make the argument of football that, you know, I think there's an easier argument to make that sport. But anyway, of this group, look, I think Jesse Winker has bounced back potential because he was playing hurt most of last year we came to find out at the end. Lucas G. Alito has been working pretty hard to remake. his delivery. He actually gained a lot of muscle heading into last season. I don't remember exactly

how much it was like 30 pounds, 40 is a lot. And then he's taking it all off because it seemed to like throw off his delivery. His body just was, you know, he had a different body composition, which changes mechanics. So he's shed that weight and is working to get it right. So I think Lucas Gialito, that's the argument for him bouncing back. Blake's if he can get it in his head that he really just needs to focus on throwing that slider as much as possible, then hopefully he can be more consistent and avoid the struggles early that we've seen the last two years. So I guess those are the three from this list who I'd key in on, but it's kind of

irrespective of the contract situation. Yeah, and last year I was completely out on Blake Snell, Scott. I'm kind of in. I mean, you know, we've seen these small stretches where he changes his pitch mix, as you mentioned, and Blake Snell looks amazing, but he did it for a larger stretch last year, so I'm hoping it's just finally ingrained in his mind,

and he just has this awesome season. I think it's still possible for Blake Snell. Interesting point you made on G. Alito, too. I remember back in the day, C.C. Sabathia, he lost weight one year, and he was terrible. So then he came back a few weeks later, and he put on, like, his 20, 30, 40 pounds,

and he was back to pitch it like C.C. Sabathia. You know, it's just some of these guys pitch at a certain weight, and that's when they're at their best. This next one's from MHB. Lou, dear DJ, Stephanie, and Michelle. Are we just going with ages here, Scott? Like, I'm Michelle, because I'm the youngest. I don't know which one's the oldest.

I guess, is it DJ? DJ. Yeah. Does that make sense? DJ Tanner. Sure, I'll be DJ Tanner. And this question is directed to you, so I'm happy you made it here today, Scottie.

Scott has talked this offseason about the return to position scarcity and a growing middle class of quality pitchers. But the changes MLB is making this upcoming season, shift bands, easier ability to steal bases, will increase offense. Therefore, wouldn't it be a competitive advantage to prioritize elite pitchers in the draft,

even if it means missing out on the scarcity of second and third baseman? I'm just going to sit back here, Scott, and you could do your things. Well, I don't think it's going to increase offense that much, certainly not like we saw with the huge home run numbers during the six-year period, known as the Juice Ball era. I mean, stolen bases, singles.

That's really what we're going to see more of if these rules go like we think they're going to go. Stolen bases and singles, one base at a time, sort of improvement, which isn't going to have a drastic effect. I think, on the number of runs scored. And it's not going to impact the entire class of pitching the way the juice ball year I did, too. The way during that time, any ball hit in the air seemingly had a chance to get out. And it just meant unless you weren't this legendary overpowering bat misser, You were vulnerable.

And, you know, most pitchers fell into that category. So you really had to sell out for those few high-end types to avoid having bad pitching. And I don't think we're there anymore. I don't think an increase in stolen bases or singles is going to get us back there. Most of my time playing fantasy baseball, which, I mean, playing fantasy baseball, I'm going into my 24th season of that. It's I think we're returning

These rules are designed to return us to an environment like we've seen for the majority of that time. Whips used to be higher. Stolen bases used to be more plentiful. It's only in recent years that those numbers have

gotten to the point that they have. And for all that time playing fantasy baseball, hitting was the way to go early. The only exception was during that juice ball. for the reasons that I outlined. I do know that there have been studies done, Scott, that show hitters early in drafts

are most likely to return their investment. Just compared to, you know, obviously starting pitchers and relief pitchers. And, you know, with that being said, I know Chris has done work that shows the further you go down the list of pitchers, the less likely they are to return investment. So it sounds counterproductive,

but if you're just looking at it from a macro level, hitters are most likely to, you know, return investment in the early round. So I think taking one or two or even three to start your draft does make a lot of sense. Yeah. No, let me let me go a little deeper with this if you don't mind. Yep. I got to pull up an article here.

Position scarcity is the thing again was the article. And in it, I do address the way the pitching landscape has changed because that's become the most plentiful position. It went from being the scarcest. maybe the only scarcity in fantasy baseball during the years of the juice ball era to now it's it's the most plentiful you know you made the case hitters are safer early and that's true but that's half the argument i do think it's just pitchers are more plentiful so um compared to just last year which wasn't even the worst of the juice ball year or i'm sorry compared to two years ago 2021 which wasn't even the worst of the juice ball era um last year last year saw an increase basically across the board here in terms of useful pitchers. So I'll break it down this way.

Head-to-head points per game. 18 plus. There were eight pitchers last year versus five two years ago. 17 plus points per game. There were 15 pitchers last year versus 11 two years ago. 16 plus points per game. There were 24 pitchers last year versus 13 two years ago. 15 plus points per game.

There were 29 pitchers versus 21 two years ago. 14 plus points per game. There were 38 pitchers last year versus 32 years ago. And this is the big one. 13 plus fantasy points per game. There were 51 pitchers last year versus 35 two years ago. So like at every level of production, and, you know, a 13 plus guy would probably be, you know,

a fourth or fifth starter for you. at every level of production, you're seeing a lot more choices. And that means, like, I'm tempted to, I'm going to try it in a mock. I'm tempted to not even bother with starting pitcher until, like, round eight or nine. And in a shallower league, like a 12-team league,

especially if it's like head-to-head and it's more important to have. have impacted every hitter spot because there are fewer hitter spots. I'm tempted to try that. I mean, that is the kind of things I was doing, you know, in like 2008, 2009, and it was working. Just kind of filling in all those hitter spots and then the hitter lull comes in and you just load up on pitching. And it's not all going to work, obviously, but you're going to have enough bites at the apple there from that very deep crop of guys

who averaged 13, 14, 15 plus points per start last year that those advantages that you gave yourself at the hitter positions earlier are going to be enough to to pull you over the finish line and you're not going to be as disadvantaged as starting pitching as you might presume you would be. I don't know if I explained that very well

but that's kind of the thinking. It's it's kind of putting myself back the mentality I had 15 years ago. And that was probably the most successful stretch of fantasy baseball I had too. So hopefully,

I don't know. It seems worth trying, if nothing else. I think it makes sense, Scott. I mean, with the environment constantly changing in baseball, you have to change your approach in fantasy as well. And this is how you are choosing to react to it with quantity

at starting pitcher over quality. And hopefully, a few of those, you know, pitchers turn into quality, which is... Right, exactly. Yeah, I think there's a better chance in this environment of that happening

than hitters turning into quality. Yeah, and that's what we spent a lot of this offseason talking about as well. We have a few keeper questions here, Scott. Let's run through these. This one's from Keelan 13. A Keeper League question, I play in a 10-te-to-head keeper league.

We can keep players for three years in whatever round they were originally drafted. and be kept in the fifth round or later. He or she says they can keep six players, but I think they meant five because they only listed six players. Tatis in the fifth round, Shane McClainahan in the seventh, Julio Rodriguez in the 21st,

Spencer Shreder in the 23rd, Emmanuel Class A in the 24th last year. This is the last year they could be kept. And Michael Harris in the 25th. Let's say you have to get rid of one of these, Scott. Okay, the one I'm getting rid of is, Wow, that's tough. I think the email suggested McClanahan, which...

Yeah, I think so. I think that's probably... I mean, he's just drafted so... These are all early round types. Julio Rodriguez, Spencer, Strider, Emmanuel Class A, Michael Harris. We have our doubts about Michael Harris, but 25th round is ridiculous value.

In a 10-team league, you know, maybe you don't have to sell out so hard for a high-end closer because obviously there's going to be more closers to go around. But still 24th round is ridiculous value for maybe the best closer in a manual class A. In a 10-team league, it's very likely McClanahan wouldn't go that much earlier than round 7 anyway. So as good as he is, I just think these other keepers, the value is so ridiculous that you can throw McClanahan back. This one's from Justin 1123. Hi, Pablo, Keisha, and Pete.

Hmm. Not ringing a bell, that one. Oh, this is a throwback, Scottie. Backyard baseball. Pablo Sanchez, man, stud. The original stud. That was... Little after my time.

But I have seen the memes devoted to Pablo Sanchez, yes. Guy was Barry Bonds. No, I wasn't before Barry Bonds, but, you know, he was the Barry Bonds of backyard baseball. I play in a 10-team Head-Ed Categories League with quality starts, replacing wins as a category. I need one more keeper from the list below. Note that you can keep a player for up to four years and the draft slot increases every year based on player performance. Shane O. Mac. Let's see what. Here comes the money. Here we go. Money talks. Here comes the money. Joe Musgrove in the sixth round. Jeffrey Springs in the 16th and Lance Lynn also in the 16th.

Only one. Uh, I'm tempted to just take the best player with McClanahan. I know he's probably going to go there. Someone I've- Rout four in a 10th team categories league. Like, McClanahan will go later than round four. Someone I've gravitated towards a lot in drafts recently, Scott, is actually Lance Lynn. He feels undervalue based on how well he finished the season.

So, I kind of like it. Yeah, man, I don't like any of them. Like, do you have to keep one? Because I might just prefer the draft pick. in each of these cases. I don't feel like the value is good enough for any. I mean, the value is probably best for Lance Lent's round 16, but, you know, it's the difference between investing around 16 pick in him

or around 12 picking him probably in a 10-team league. So I might, like you said, just keep the best player and Shane McClanahan, even though fourth-round value isn't that great. But if there's an option to keep nothing, None. That might be my choice. This one's from J match 18. I'm in a head to head categories league with runs, RBI, home runs, total bases, OBP, hitter strikeouts, and steals.

I always focus on your roto discussions, but should I? Maybe this person should focus on our head to head points talk, Scott, because head to head points focuses more on plate discipline and obviously total bases matter more. This is one of those like tweeners, but you probably should pay attention more to head to head I would say. Yeah, if you have to choose, and obviously we can't put together rankings for every single format, we just have to, we have to stick to the ones that are most widely played. If you have to choose, probably the head-to-head points rankings would be better.

It's still not perfect because, you know, just by virtue of it being a category's league, home runs and, sorry, home runs and stolen bases, for instance, are going to be way the same way when they're not weighed the same way in points leagues the homerance worth twice as much

as stolen bases plus the RBI plus the run so yes there's not a there's not a perfect solution but

probably had to head points league's rankings a little more apply a little better this one's from nooners 2 hey Coleman DiMaggio and Castilla

hmm I was trying to think of the first names. Joe. I mean, Vinnie Castia, is that we're going

with? Vince Coleman, Vinnie Castia. Is there another DiMachio that I don't know? I don't know. Would Joe have a brother

Vincent DiMaggio? I don't know. I couldn't find this one either. A.O. only keeper help. 10 team 5x5 with a $26 budget,

which is very interesting, Scott, because they just chopped the zero off. from the usual $260. And you'll see what the keepers. We're talking about like players in terms of cents. Vince DiMaggio, two-time All-Star.

I had no clue. No clue. But, all right, we're going with Vinnie. Vinnie P. Baby. Each year the cost of a keeper goes up 80 cents. So to recap, Scott, if you didn't hear. 26 dollar budget.

Each year the keeper costs goes up 80 cents. Which four do I keep? Vinny P. Baby. For 90 cents. which equates to $9 in a normal $260 budget. Shane McClanahan for $1.70, Reed Debtmer's for $0.90,

Brian Beow for 90 cents, Yohan Duran for 90 cents, or Pete Fairbanks for 90 cents. How many of these do we need? Four, four of them. Okay, so 10 teams, but AL only. So very deep league, actually. Yeah.

McClanahan for $17. Oh, yes. $1.70. Looks great in that format. Vinnie. at nine, of course. And I think maybe Duran and Fairbanks. I think so, too.

Even though neither is for sure a closer, I'd say both are the leading candidate in their respective bullpins, twins and rays. Both are probably the most talented in their respective bullpins. And saves are obviously very scarce in an AOL-only league. So those would be my four choices. McLeanahan, Pasquantino, Duran, and Fairbanks. Let's take a break before we do that.

make sure to subscribe to the Fantasy Baseball Today newsletter. It is free. Go to CBSports.com slash newsletters. Click on the FBT logo, punch in your email, and that's it. If you want to support Chris, you can also sign up for the Fantasy Football Today newsletter for some off-season fantasy football content. If you're watching this on YouTube, thank you. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already.

We have just over 16,000 subscribers, and we're making the push for 20K this year. So that will be a pretty fun and awesome milestone if we can make that, happen. Let's take a break and we'll be back right after this. All right, before we get back into your questions, I did see a few news items pop-up, Scott. Aaron Ashby, we knew he was a little bit behind with a shoulder injury. He's going to miss, quote, a couple of months with shoulder inflammation. So that has to drop him way down the draft rankings and it's just a killer for Keeper in Dynasty leagues because I still think there's a lot of talent there for Aaron Ashby,

but the shoulder has been an issue now for two straight seasons. and also Cole Hamels. That's right. That Cole Hamils, he signed a minor league deal with the Padres. So if he's anything close to his, you know, obviously later career self, he could factor into their rotation. So just a name in very, very deep leagues. Let's get into your emails.

This one's from Mitchell. My longtime Head to Head Categories League is moving from quality starts to quality appearances where you will get one point for a pitcher going five or more innings with a 4.5 ERA or less. So that equates Scott to, basically two earned runs over five innings pitched is a 3.6 ERA, three earned runs over five would not work.

Obviously, you need three over six innings pitch for the quality start. This change is to combat the decline in the innings pitched per game started and eliminate any games where a starter is used. What are your thoughts on quality appearances seeing as how my league is a daily lineup League, I feel like that makes most pitchers on any given night streamable and puts less emphasis on ACEs.

I love this idea, Scott. I always thought that quality start should be a sliding scale where if you go five innings worth of two run ball, six of three, anything over three innings is probably not a quality start. But yeah, I always felt that it should kind of be a sliding scale and we can we can work five innings into the conversation as well. I like it personally. I think from a fantasy perspective, it doesn't make a lot of sense to score quality starts anymore just because of how, you know, it's come to mean something different, right? Like, because it's so common for pitchers, especially younger ones, to go less than the six innings required. I mean, they could have a great start, but they don't go six innings, so it's not a quality start. I don't know that I want to change the definition of what a quality start is.

I feel like that's a separate discussion. I think there's a big difference between going five innings and going six innings in terms of how likely you are to pick up a win. And quality start is kind of a way of saying you pitched well enough to get a win. And I don't know that a five-inning start. You could say that for that. All right. So, but I mean, just in terms of changing this for fantasy, I think it makes a lot of sense.

Obviously, workload expectations are decreasing and continuing to trend that way. This next one's from Kevin. And it's a pretty loaded question, Scott. So, I mean, we could keep our answers to a minimum. But just thoughts. I'm starting a dynasty salary cap slash auction league and don't even know where to begin. Any idea on percentages of total budget, et cetera. I think he's asking how you allocate your money, Scott,

typically in a salary cap or auction league. Some people are very strict with like a 65% for hitters, 35% for pitchers. I don't know if you follow it that closely. But also for a startup dynasty, you have to factor in, am I going after veterans? Am I going after players in their prime?

How many prospects am I mixing in? So it's a pretty loaded question. It is. It is a loaded question. I would say, and I don't know exactly what the keeper structure is either. I mean, are you keeping guys at this salary for however many years, or are they all being kept on equal terms, regardless of what you spent on them in the first place?

Because if they're being kept at their starting salary for several years, then I probably don't spend all my money. You know, I probably draft a lot of guys who, aren't quite there yet, but I have a ton of upside, you know, prospects potentially, for as low as I can get them and just have that great starting point with,

you know, have a lot of, have a lot of, have my budget wide open for years to come with the expectation that those players will develop in, or at least most of them will develop into high-end contributors. So that's probably what I do if they're being kept at their starting salary. If they're not, then,

I mean, as far as hitting versus pitching, I always prefer hitting in dynasty leagues, but it's more about, my focus when starting up a dynasty team versus a redraft team, it's less even about

like, how am I going to put together the best team as opposed to how am I going to get the most long-lasting talent? So my focus would be more on that. It really changes, the focus completely is what I'm trying to say.

Like you're like my, the, the incentives are just completely different. And so it doesn't even make sense to think of it in terms of I'm going to distribute my budget this much for hitting and this much for pitching because the idea is long term contention, not immediate contention. I don't know if that answers your question at all, but I don't have a very, I don't, I can't give you a very specific answer is the thing. Yeah, it is tough, Scott. I've noticed in whenever we do Dynasty startup mock drafts,

I tend to target the age 23 to 27 players, guys that are young but established, but also entering their prime. So it allows you to compete now, but also, you know, hopefully compete for the next five or so years. And then I'll focus on prospects a little bit later on in the draft

because let's be honest, there's no shortage of prospects, but there's different ways to go about it. You could be the team that just goes, completely prospect heavy and you know you want to be a great team in two to three years from now there's different ways to attack it but I typically like that you know age 23 to 27 ranges is where I live in these drafts if it's the sort of setup where you keep everybody on equal terms and not based on their salary then I'd probably go studs and duds with the duds being prospects

right like I'd get a lot of really high-end bats maybe arms too but especially bats and pay whatever I have to pay for them. And then I have them, and I'm going to keep them forever in theory. And, you know, the last few dollars I have to spend will go to players who aren't in the majors yet. And so maybe they're going to slip through the cracks, like a Tyler Soderstrum or whatever.

And then hopefully you have a juggernaut in a year or two with that approach. All right. This next was from Dan. Last season, Scott was high on Patrick Sandoval. and Brendan Rogers. I haven't heard a peep about them this year. By the way, Scott, did you see that they're making a Peep's soda?

I think it's Peep's Pepsi. Yeah, I don't think it's new. I haven't tried it before. For me, the appeal of peeps is primarily the texture. So, you know, having the flavor infused into a soda

doesn't do much for me. I'd try it out of curiosity. I drink my fair share of soda. Yeah. So I'd try it. I don't imagine it's going to be a big winner for me. Pepsi is already so sweet, man. How much sweeter can you get just basically making it?

I don't. It's probably about the same sugar content. It's just, it's more of, it has marshmallow flavor infused in it, I'm guessing. Well, Scott, how do you feel about these two players? Patrick Sandoval and Brendan Rogers, are you still buying? Not really. I want to say I'm excited about either. Patrick Sandoval

really disappointed me with the strikeouts last year and the whole case for him was strikeouts. I'll look at how good this changeup is, how many whiffs it gets with it, the slider it's coming along to. I mean, he barely had a strikeout per inning last year.

And then, you know, there's durability issues on top of it and starting pitchers way deeper than it was this time a year ago. So I just don't know that the juice is worth the squeeze anymore. And Brendan Roddy, I mean, he stayed more or less healthy last year and again was very disappointing. He's another, on the opposite end of the spectrum, the way the entire hitting environment changed,

it's kind of dampened my enthusiasm for him because I'm not confident that he's going to deliver the home run outcomes that I thought he would in the old environment. Brendan Rogers is one of these players, Scott, where he's better in deeper leagues where you just, need a safe floor and you need quality plate appearances. He's not going to blow you away. I don't know that there's much upside because he hits way too many ground balls, which limits the power output, as you mentioned, Scott.

And he doesn't run. We thought that maybe speed would be a part of his game. I think he has zero steals in his whole career. In his whole career, right? So yeah, you're not getting much there. You know, leave it for the deeper leagues. That is Brendan Rogers.

This one's from Corey. I rarely bother with a question. But now that my head-to-head Keeper League draft order is set on losing sleep debating between Garrett Cole and Freddie Freeman for my top pick. They're the top available guys. I only have Musgrove at starting pitcher and already have Paul Gulchman at first base and Mani Machado at third base. Freeman could fill my corner infield spot. I like Freeman over Cole, but if I don't take Cole with my first round pick, I gave up my second and third round picks and won't pick again until round four in a 12-team league where 60 players are already contracted as keepers.

My starting pitcher situation is dire if I draft Freeman. Scott, I think this is not, though. I think this is a situation where you, I think I would take Garrett Cole because you already have two second round, borderline first round hitters in Mani Machado and Paul Gulchmidt. I mean, I lean with Garrett Cole. I know you're all into offense this year, but...

Yeah, I mean, the kind of the plan I laid out before where, like, it's not a dire situation at starting pitcher because starting pitcher is plentiful in all stages of the draft. And it's going to take, it's probably going to take a couple years of deprogramming our brains to recognize this.

I don't know, maybe MLB changes the ball again and I end up looking like a fool. But I think this is a situation where because of the way the previous six, seven years went, you're used to valuing starting pitcher

in a way it doesn't need be valued anymore in a way that historically in fantasy baseball it wasn't valued so i don't think it's a dire situation and i think as quickly as hitting sours at every position i mean we say first base and shortstop or deep they are the deepest hitting positions but still by the back half of the draft there's not a lot there's not a lot to get excited about there a few scattered players with upside uh i just take freeman he's he's he he's he I have him as a first rounder. I don't have Cole even as a second rounder personally, I don't think.

If we're talking about a categories league, he says head-to-head, but he also has a corner infield spot to fill. So I'm guessing it's head-to-head categories. If it's a points league, maybe that changes it a little. But I still think I'd lean toward taking Freeman. All right, Scottie's on Freeman there. I am on Garrett Cole. This one's from Garrett.

Do you typically find yourself fading pitchers that throw in the postseason? Wondering if pitchers who throw so deep in the postseason, and find it hard to come back to form the following season, possibly because of fatigue, additional strain, et cetera. Specifically, I know Zach Wheeler has shown he can throw a ton of innings in a season, but while I'm trying to determine my keepers, I'm wondering if I should be wary of Wheeler this year since he threw much more than other pitchers.

We get five keepers in my league. My keepers are currently set as Matt Olson, Kyle Tucker, Shohei Otani, and Carlos Rodon. Should my last keeper be Wheeler, Bichette, Luis Roedon? Robert or Wander Franco. There's a few things going on here, Scott. I think I don't agree that Zach Wheeler threw a bunch of innings last year

or more than other pitchers because he missed some time earlier in the year. He did throw a lot in the postseason, but overall he got to 188 and two-thirds. I think this might be more applicable for someone like Aaron Nola, who threw 200 in the regular season and then he threw 25 more in the post-season.

He got up to 230 and two-thirds combined. something, I'd have to look, but I'm willing to bet he's never done that before. So maybe it kind of creeps into my mind a little bit for someone like Aaronola. With all that being said, I'd probably just take Boba Shett as a keeper anyway. Yeah, I think generally speaking,

if you're trying to pinpoint which of the pitchers are going to get hurt this year, you're not going to be very successful with that. If they have a known health issue already, that's different, of course. But if they don't, if we have every reason to presume full health, saying, oh, this is the year this guy gets hurt, I just don't, I don't think, I don't think that's a, I don't think that's really a worthy exercise. So to answer the question of who should be your last keeper,

does he say what the scoring format is? He does not. I mean, Bichette is here on this list of options, so I don't know why it wouldn't be him. I almost wonder if it's a points league the reason he's raising this question at all, and the reason he's included Wander Franco here. Even, you know what, if it's a points league, I probably would do Wheeler over Bichette, because that's not really Bichette's better format. But probably Bichet is who I'd pick in most cases.

Next one's from Joshua to Max, Biron, and Joey. I don't know. Those are the twins outfielders, Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, and Joey Gallo. We'll just call Chris Joey Gallo since he likes Joey Gallo so much. My question is about salary cap leagues and when to nominate players you really want. Do you wait and let the other people nominate higher end 30 plus dollar players? Do you quickly get your backups for less so you make sure to get productive players?

Do you try to dive, drive up other players bids to use up their budget even on players you don't want? Does it change for points of roto? Oh, gosh. This is another loaded question here, Scott. And honestly, I think it changes for me every time. I try to change up my pattern of, I think most often I am nominating players that I don't want so I can get money off the board,

elite level players that I just want nothing to do with. That's normally my usual strategy. But every, like, third or fourth player, I'll kind of mix it up and I'll throw a player out there that I actually do want to win, especially if I haven't won a player yet. Like, I want to spend some money. So I'll just kind of mix that in a little bit. Do you have a general strategy?

So the thing you have to remember, particularly early in auctions or salary cap drafts, if you prefer, the thing you have to remember early on is that there's only one chance at each of these players. right so if you're waiting around for the best value or you're trying to set yourself up for a great value and then the time comes and it's not a great value there's no going back like i i think i think it's difficult for people to wrap their heads around that concept because there is kind of this conventional wisdom oh nominate the players you don't want so the money you can get get rid of you know you can other people spend money and not have it to spend on the players you do want but those are probably good players that you're nominating,

and you're leaving yourself with fewer options. You're kind of painting yourself into a corner. So I do just the opposite early on. If I've put together a really clear plan for what I want to do, and it hinges on a few key players, I want to know if it's realistic I'm going to get those players. I want to know soon so that I can pivot easier if I can't get that player.

So I'll just throw them out there and see if I can get them. If it doesn't work out, at least I know and at least I can adjust. There is a point in the auction where I have about twice as much money left as roster spots to fill. And at that point, I'm not going very aggressively anymore

because I'm almost out of money, right? And when I get to that point, I'm pretty much only nominating players I don't want because I want the people, for the players I do want or at least want to have a chance at, I want to jump in with a $2 bid rather than nominating for one, somebody else jumps in for two and now I have to go to three.

Does that make sense? Yeah. Yeah, I think it makes subtle sense. Yeah. So obviously until I'm down to only $1 bids, I'm pretty much always nominating players I don't want. So early in the draft, I generally nominate players I do want. I may throw one who I, you know, just kind of a tester out there to see how the room's going to respond to random low-end guy if they're going to go, you know, $7 on him when he should be a one or $2 player.

Then that kind of tells me something about the way this is going to play out. But generally speaking, early on, I throw out players I do want. And late, I throw out players I don't want. A few more notes in this format, Scott. When I am planning for a salary cap or auction draft, I go crazy with the planning, Scott. I mean, I figure out how much money I want to spend at each position. And if you play in a Roto league,

I will have three different names, three different options of players I want, a main target, a backup, a backup to the backup. And I want to make sure that all of those players have a similar skill set. Because again, when you're drafting a Roto team, you need the stats to add up. And that's what matters more than anything.

And a head dead points league, it doesn't matter as much because what the player's skill set is. Obviously, you know, you want to target high OBP and plate discipline and all that. But I'll still do the same thing. I'll have a target, I'll have a backup, and I'll have a backup to the backup.

And I do that for every position. Other last note is people understand when a tier is ending in this format. And, you know, we talk a lot about the top tier third basement, Scott. There's typically four that will go in the second round.

Devere, Austin Riley, Machado, Bobby Witt. If Devers is the last player of that tier available, other people will know. Say those, the other three third baseman went for $28 to $30, there's a real chance that Devers is going to go

for more than $30 and maybe even a lot more, like 35, 36, 37 because people know, all right, this is my last chance to get a top tier, top tier third baseman, and I waited too long. So that's just in my experience. It changes in every draft, but that happens more often than

not. At least I've noticed it. Yeah. No, that's a good point. And I agree with you on making a firm plan. I mean, some people in all manners of their life just aren't planners and they fly by to see their pants and maybe they're able to have a successful auction that way. But I just, I can't imagine it. The key is, yes, plan it down to the dollar, have an idea of if not the exact player you want, then the type of player you want in each of the roster spots. Plan it down to the dollar, like I said, and then be malleable as it's actually happening. If you have to go a dollar or two more than you'd budgeted for, that's okay. Take a dollar or two away from somewhere else.

And, you know, you might even have to make a more dramatic change because somebody you counted on getting went for way too much or, you know, you see people are just not spending enough money early on so the mid-tier players are going to go for too much. have to pivot based on that, but have a plan and adjust as needed. That's the key, I think. And every plan this offseason should probably include Corey Seeger, so I'll just throw that out there. This last one's from Brian. My 12-team, $260 budget Categories League keeps three players for three years max. I'll be keeping Julio Rodriguez this year for $5 and Shohay Otani for 22. I keep going back and forth between a Verlander for $22 or Corbyn Carroll for $5,

who I'll be able to keep again for $10 next year if this year goes well for him. What do you think? I mean, this is the age old, Scott. Do you take the veteran, the guy that's done it, the one that you trust, or, you know, the big upside prospect who could maybe be an awesome keeper for years to come? I think Carol. It's a close call. And if the pitching environment was different, like if this was still the,

of the juice ball era and high-end pitching that was critical, like the biggest differentiator in fantasy, then I'd probably go with Ferlander, who's himself a pretty good price, but for how long? Yeah. You know, Carol is a good price for this year, and it would be a great price for next year and the four years after that, you know?

Yeah, fair enough. All right, we're going to wrap there for Scott. I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching this mailbag edition of fantasy baseball today. We'll be back again next week. Bye-bye.